Intrebarea lui STEPHEN HOWKING: - Cum poate rasa umana sa supravietueasca in urmatorii o suta de ani ?

Eu nu stiu raspunsul. Iata de ce eu mi-am pus intrebarea, pentru ca oameni sa se gandeasca la aceasta si pentru a fi constienti de noile pericolele pe care acum le infruntam. Inaintea anului 1940 amenintarea principala la supravietuirea noastra putea sa vina de la ciocnirea cu un asteroid. Astfel de ciocniri au cauzat extinctiile in masa din trecut, una dintre ultimele a avut loc acum 70 de milione de ani in urma, astfel ca probabilitatea prin care noi vom avea nevoie de serviciile de Bruce Willis in urmatorii o suta de ani, este foarte mica. Un pericol mult mai apropiat, este razboiul nuclear. America si Rusia, detin fiecare mai multi vectori decat este suficient pentru a ucide pe oricine de pe Pamant, de cateva ori, si acesta este acum adevarat si pentru China. Lumea este primejdios de aproape de anihilarea nucleara, existand mult mai mult decat o ocazie in ultimii 50 ani. Odata cu sfarsitul Razboiului Rece, amenintarea a devenit mai putin acuta, dar nu a disparut de tot. Exista un stoc de arme nucleare, suficient de mare ca sa ne ucida pe toti si poate fi folosit accidental de o Tara care poate sa apese butonul rosu, convinsa ca a fost vorba de un atac. Exista acum un nou potential pericol in tarile mici si instabile, prin obtinerea de arme nucleare. Astfel, rachetele nucleare cu raza mica pot cauza milioane de morti, dar ele nu ameninta supravietuirea intregii rase umane, cu exceptia ca ele sa fie scanteia unui conflict intre marile puteril. Aceste pericole, ca ciocnirea cu un asteroid si razboiul nuclear, pot fi acum asociate cu o multime de alte amenintari la supravietuirea noastra. Schimbarea climei se petrece intr-un ritm progresiv, nemaiintalnit vreodata. In timp ce noi speram sa o stabilizam si poate sa o inversam, reducand emisiile de CO2, pericolul este ca daca clima se schimba prea mult, va atinge punctul in care ridicarea temperaturii devine autointretinuta. Topirea ghetii din Arctica si Antarctica reduce cantitatea de energie solara care este reflectata in spatiu si astfel temperatura creste si mai mult. Cresterea de temperatura duce la eliberarea unei mari cantitatiile de CO2, care se va stoca in ocean, care va spori si mai mult efectul de sera. Sa speram ca nu vom sfarsi si noi ca Venus, planeta noastra sora, cu o temperatura de 250 grade Centigrade, si ploii de acid sulfuric. Exista si alte pericole, ca de exemplu eliberarea accidentala sau intentionata unor noi virusi produsi prin inginerie genetica. De fiecare data, cu cat sporim puterile noastre tehnologice, adaugam noi cai si posibilitatii ca lucrurile sa mearga in mod gresit si dezastruos. Rasa umana se infrunta tot mai mult cu un viitor periculos. Exista o gluma bolnava, care spune ca motivul pentru care noi nu suntem vizitati de extraterestrii este ca atunci cand o civilizatie ajunge la stadiul sau de dezvoltare, ea devine instabila, si se distruge pe ea insasi. De fapt, eu cred sa exista alte motive de ce noi nu am vazut extraterestrii, dar povestirea arata cat de periculoasa este situatia. Pe termen lung, supravietuirea rasei umane va fi mai sigura daca ne raspandim in spatiu si dupa aceea pe alte stele. Acesta nu se va intampla insa pentru cel putin o suta de ani, asa ca trebuie sa fim foarte atenti. Probabil, noi trebuie sa speram la acea inginerie genetica care ne va face mai intelepti si mai putin agresivi. -----------------------------------------------------------

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MINE

Stephen William Hawking was born on 8 January 1942 (300 years after the death of Galileo) in Oxford, England. His parents' house was in north London, but during the second world war Oxford was considered a safer place to have babies. When he was eight, his family moved to St Albans, a town about 20 miles north of London. At eleven Stephen went to St Albans School, and then on to University College, Oxford, his father's old college. Stephen wanted to do Mathematics, although his father would have preferred medicine. Mathematics was not available at University College, so he did Physics instead. After three years and not very much work he was awarded a first class honours degree in Natural Science. Stephen then went on to Cambridge to do research in Cosmology, there being noone working in that area in Oxford at the time. His supervisor was Denis Sciama, although he had hoped to get Fred Hoyle who was working in Cambridge. After gaining his Ph.D. he became first a Research Fellow, and later on a Professorial Fellow at Gonville and Caius College. After leaving the Institute of Astronomy in 1973 Stephen came to the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, and since 1979 has held the post of Lucasian Professor of Mathematics. The chair was founded in 1663 with money left in the will of the Reverend Henry Lucas, who had been the Member of Parliament for the University. It was first held by Isaac Barrow, and then in 1669 by Isaac Newton. Stephen Hawking has worked on the basic laws which govern the universe. With Roger Penrose he showed that Einstein's General Theory of Relativity implied space and time would have a beginning in the Big Bang and an end in black holes. These results indicated it was necessary to unify General Relativity with Quantum Theory, the other great Scientific development of the first half of the 20th Century. One consequence of such a unification that he discovered was that black holes should not be completely black, but should emit radiation and eventually evaporate and disappear. Another conjecture is that the universe has no edge or boundary in imaginary time. This would imply that the way the universe began was completely determined by the laws of science. His many publications include The Large Scale Structure of Spacetime with G F R Ellis, General Relativity: An Einstein Centenary Survey, with W Israel, and 300 Years of Gravity, with W Israel. Stephen Hawking has three popular books published; his best seller A Brief History of Time, Black Holes and Baby Universes and Other Essays and most recently in 2001, The Universe in a Nutshell. There are .pdf and .ps versions of his full publication list. Professor Hawking has twelve honorary degrees, was awarded the CBE in 1982, and was made a Companion of Honour in 1989. He is the recipient of many awards, medals and prizes and is a Fellow of The Royal Society and a Member of the US National Academy of Sciences. Stephen Hawking continues to combine family life (he has three children and one grandchild), and his research into theoretical physics together with an extensive programme of travel and public lectures.

Public Lectures
Professor Hawking has given many lectures to the general public. Many of these past lectures have been released in his 1993 book, 'Black Holes and Baby Universes, and other essays'. Here are some of the more recent public lectures. Included with these lectures is a Glossary of some of the terms used.

Physics Colloquiums
These lectures assume a level of Physics which is of at least University Degree level. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Professor Hawking has given many lectures to the general public. Many of these past lectures have been released in his 1993 book, 'Black Holes and Baby Universes, and other essays'. Below are some of the more recent public lectures. Included with these lectures is a Glossary of some of the terms used. To view the pdf files you will need to download the free To view the postscript files (.ps) you will need

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We now have the lectures available in formats suitable for Palm Pilots (see bottom of page). You will need to download the free Microsoft Reader or Palm Reader software to view these files.

The Beginning of Time

"In this lecture, I would like to discuss whether time itself has a beginning, and whether it will have an end. All the evidence seems to indicate, that the universe has not existed forever, but that it had a beginning, about 15 billion years ago. This is probably the most remarkable discovery of modern cosmology. Yet it is now taken for granted. We are not yet certain whether the universe will have an end." This lecture is available in pdf format. The Nature of Space and Time Stephen Hawking and Roger Penrose gave a series of 3 lectures each at the Isaac Newton Institute in Cambridge. The full series is available in a book of the same name. Here we have compiled Stephen's contribution to the series, as well as the final debate .

pdf format or 4 postscript files or (penrose1.ps penrose2.ps penrose3.ps penrose4.ps).

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Space and Time Warps

"In science fiction, space and time warps are a commonplace. They are used for rapid journeys around the galaxy, or for travel through time. But today's science fiction, is often tomorrow's science fact. So what are the chances for space and time war ps." This lecture is available in

pdf format.

Does God Play Dice

"This lecture is about whether we can predict the future, or whether it is arbitrary and random. In ancient times, the world must have seemed pretty arbitrary. Disasters such as floods or diseases must have seemed to happen without warning or apparen t reason. Primitive people attributed such natural phenomena, to a pantheon of gods and goddesses, who behaved in a capricious and whimsical way. There was no way to predict what they would do, and the only hope was to win favour by gifts or actions." ; This lecture is available in

pdf format.

Life in the Universe

"In this talk, I would like to speculate a little, on the development of life in the universe, and in particular, the development of intelligent life. I shall take this to include the human race, even though much of its behaviour through out history, has been pretty stupid, and not calculated to aid the survival of the species." This lecture is available in

pdf format. Lectures (Microsoft Reader) Lectures (Palm Reader)

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physics colloquiums
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