ESTIMAREA PARAMETRILOR REPARTIIEI WEIBULL PRIN

METODE PARAMETRICE
Se consider un eantion de 6 produse, ncercate pe un stand, pentru care valorile
timpilor la care s-a produs defectarea, sunt urmtoarele:
ti=16, 34, 53, 75, 93 i 120 ore
1. S se determine parametrii repartiiei Weibull prin:
1.1. metoda grafic;
1.2. metoda celor mai mici ptrate;
1.3. metoda verosimilitii maxime.
2. S se determine expresia fiabilitii i a nonfiabilitii
3. S se determine cte produse se vor mai afla n funciune dup 200 ore, dintr-un lot
de 2000 de produse.
1.1. DETERMINAREA PARAMETRILOR REPARTIIEI WEIBULL PRIN
METODA GRAFIC
t1, t2, ..., ti, ..., tn

i- numarul produsului ex la 1 i=1,la 2 i=2....

n=numarul de produse in acest ex avem 6

Fn (ti ) =

i 0.3
.
n + 0.4

ti=16, 34, 53, 75, 93 i 120 ore

Nr.
crt.

ti

1
2
3
4
5
6

16
34
53
75
93
120

F n ( ti ) =

i 0.3
n + 0.4

F n ( ti ) * 100

0.1091
0.2644
0.4214
0.5786
0.7355
0.8910

10.91
26.44
42.14
57.86
73.55
89.10

[ti , Fn (ti ) *100]

F ( t ) =1 e

R( t ) = e
R ( t ) + F ( t ) =1

ReliaSoft Weibull++ 7 - www.ReliaSoft.com

Probability- Weibull

99.000

Probability-Weibull
Data 1
Weibull-2P
RRX SRM MEDFM
F=6/S=0
Data Points
Probability Line

Unreliabilit y, F(t )

90.000

50.000

10.000
10.000

Ionel Martinescu
Universitaty Transilvania of Brasov
12/7/2011
6:59:50 AM
1000.000

100.000

Time, (t)
=1.4429, =76.0821, =0.9956

= 1.4429,

= 76.08 ore,
= 0.

R( t ) = e

1.44

=e

t=200

76.81

R( t = 200 ) = e

R( t ) =

1.44

=e

200

76.81

0.45

N (t )
=
N ( 0)

1.2. DETERMINAREA PARAMETRILOR REPARTIIEI WEIBULL PRIN

METODA CELOR MAI MICI PTRATE

F (t ) =1 e

t
ln (1 F (t ) ) =

t
ln[ ln (1 F (t ) )] = ln

ln[ ln (1 F (t ) ) ] = ln t ln .
ln ln

1
= ln t ln
(1 F (t ))

y
=
ln
ln
,

(
1 F (t ))

1 = ln ,
x = ln t ,

2 = .
y = 1 + 2 x .

t1, t2, ..., ti, ..., tn

yi = ln ln

1
si xi = ln ti ,
1 Fn (ti )

Fn (ti ) =

i 0.3
n + 0.4

y1 = ln ln 1 F (t ) ,
1

y2 = ln ln 1 F (t ) ,
2

...

yi = ln ln 1 ,

1 F (ti )

...

1
,
yn = ln ln
1 F (tn )

1 0.3
, x1 = ln t1,
n + 0.4

F (t1 ) =

2 0.3
, x2 = ln t2 ,
n + 0.4

F (t2 ) =

F (ti ) =

i 0.3
, xi = ln ti ,
n + 0.4
n 0.3
, xn = ln tn.
n + 0.4

F (tn ) =

S = yi ( 1 + 2 xi )

= min.

i =1

S = [ y1 ( 1 + 2 x1 )] + 2[ y 2 ( 1 + 2 x2 )] + ... + [ yi ( 1 + 2 xi )] + ... + [ yn ( 1 + 2 xn )] .
2

S
= 0
S1

=0
2

2[ y1 ( 1 + 2 x1)] 2[ y2 ( 1 + 2 x2 )] ... 2[ yi ( 1 + 2 xi )] ... 2[ yn ( 1 + 2 xn )] = 0

2 x1[ y1 ( 1 + 2 x1 )] 2 x2 [ y2 ( 1 + 2 x2 )] ... 2 xi [ yi ( 1 + 2 xi )] ... 2 xn [ yn ( 1 + 2 xn )] = 0

n
n

1 n + 2 xi = yi
i =1
i =1

n
n
n
1 xi + 2 xi2 = xi yi ,
i =1
i =1
i =1
n

2 =

n xi y i xi y i
i =1

i =1

i =1
2

2
n xi xi
i =1
i =1
n

1 =

i =1

i =1

yi xi2 xi xi yi
i =1

i =1

2
n xi xi
i =1
i =1
n

^
^^ ^

= 2 si 1 = ln sau = e .

ti=16, 34, 53, 75, 93 i 120 ore

Nr.
ti
crt.
1 16
2 34
3 53
4 75
5 93
6 120

xi = ln ti

xi2 = ( ln ti )

2.7726
3.5264
3.9703
4.3175
4.5326
4.7875

7.6873
12.4352
15.7632
18.6407
20.5445
22.9201

23.9068

97.9909

F n ( ti ) =

1
i 0.3 y = ln ln
i
1 Fn (ti )
n + 0.4

0.1091
0.2644
0.4214
0.5786
0.7355
0.8910

yi2

xi yi

-2.1583
-1.1802
-0.6030
-0.1460
0.2851
0.7955

4.6582
1.3930
0.3637
0.0213
0.0813
0.6328

-5.9840
-4.1620
-2.3943
-.06303
1.2923
3.8083

-3.0070

7.1502

-8.0699

6 ( 8.0699) 23.9068 ( 3.0070)

=
= 1.4301,
2
2
6 97.9909 23.9068

1 = 6.19935.

= 1.4301

1 ( 6.19935)
= e 2 = e 1.4301 = 76.318 ore
1.3. DETERMINAREA PARAMETRILOR REPARTIIEI WEIBULL PRIN
METODA VEROSIMILITII MAXIME
t1, t2, ..., ti, ..., tn

f ( t i ;1 ,2 ,...k ) .

L = f ( t 1;1 ,2 ,...k ) f ( t 2 ;1 ,2 ,...k ) ... f ( t i ;1 ,2 ,...k ) ... f ( t n ;1 ,2 ,...k )

n

= f ( t i ;1 ,2 ,...k ).
i =1

= ln L
= ln[ f ( t 1;1 ,2 ,...k ) f ( t 2 ;1 ,2 ,...k ) ... f ( t i ;1 ,2 ,...k ) ... f ( t n ;1 ,2 ,...k ) ]

= ln f ( t 1;1 ,2 ,...k ) + ln f ( t 2 ;1 ,2 ,...k ) + ... + ln f ( t i ;1 ,2 ,...k ) + ... + ln f ( t n ;1 ,2 ,...k

n

= ln f ( t i ;1 ,2 ,...k ).
i =1

ln L
= 0,
1
ln L
= 0,

2
....

ln L
= 0.
n
(=0)

t
f (t ) =

t1, t2, ..., ti, ..., tn

t
L( , ) = 1

t
1

t
2

1
t

i
t
= i e
i =1

t
2

t
... i

t
i

t
... n

t
n

= ln L( , )

1
t
n

i
ti

= ln e

i =1

1
t
1
t
1
t
1
t

1
2
i
n

= ln 1 e + ln 2 e + ... + ln i e + ... + ln n e

n t
= ln +ln i
i =1
i =1
n

+ ln e
i =1

t
i

 ln L( , ) n n
= + 1 ti = 0,
=
i=1

(
)

ln
L

1
t
t
ti
i
i
=
= + ln ln = 0.

i=1

n n
+ 1 ti = 0
i=1

n
n

n
t
t
i
i
+ ln ln ti = 0.
i = 1 i = 1

t
i =1

ti=16, 34, 53, 75, 93 i 120 ore.

6 6
+ 1 ti = 0
i=1

6
6

6
t
t
+ ln i i ln ti = 0.
i = 1 i = 1

t
i =1

= 1.933,

= 73.526 ore.