Analele Universitii Constantin Brncui din Trgu Jiu, Seria Economie, Nr.

1/2009

CRIZA ECONOMIC DIN PERSPECTIVA UNUI RZBOI NTRE CIVILIZAII Prof. Univ. Dr. Chiritescu Dumitru Dorel Vasilescu Maria Universitatea Constantin Brncui din Trgu Jiu

ECONOMICAL CRISIS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF AN INTERCIVILIZATION WAR Prof. Ph.D. Chiritescu Dumitru Dorel Vasilescu Maria Constantin Brncui University of Trgu Jiu

Rezumat: America se afl la jumtatea drumului iar timpul impunerii definitive pare c a sosit. Dup un sistem de putere mondial bipolar ( SUA URSS ), se poate trece la un sistem de putere unipolar evitndu-se un multipolarism periculos la scar planetar. Pax americana rmne un obiectiv de prim ordin, un proiect universal la care celelalte ri mai mult sau mai puin importante ale lumii se pot afilia.

Abstract: America is at the half way of the road and the time of the definitive imposing seems to have arrived. After a world-wide bi-polar power system (SUA-URSS), it can pass to a unique-polar power system avoiding a multi polarities system dangerous at world-wide scale. Pax Americana remains a main order objective, an universal project at which the other countries more or less important can join. Key words: economic-financial crisis, new global economic and political order, supremacy, Pax Americana.

Cuvinte cheie: criza economico-financiara, o noua ordine economica si politica internationala, suprematie, pax americana.

Criza economic din 2007 a provocat nenumrate dezbateri n lumea politic i economic. Ne propunem a rspunde la cteva ntrebri care pun n eviden o alt faet a crizei aceea de efect al unei dispute, al unui rzboi civilizaional pentru mprirea lumii, acum la nceputul secolului XXI, al doilea secol American. ntrebrile sunt urmtoarele: - Criza actual este mai mult dect o criz economic ? - Criza actual este o criz a relaiilor politice internaionale ? Criza actual semnaleaz trecerea spre o nou ordine economic i politic internaional; - Care sunt parametrii acestei noi ordini economice i politice internaionale ? - Cine se bate pentru supremaie n lumea actual ? - Care este rolul Americii i civilizaiei

Economical crisis from 2007 has caused numerous debates in the political and economical world. We want to answer some questions that underline another face of the crisis the dispute effect one, a civilization war for world split-up, now at the beginning of the 21st century, the second American century. These are the questions: - is the current crisis more than an economical crisis? - is the current crisis a politic international relation crisis? The current crisis signals the passing to a new political and economical international way. - Which are the parameters of this new political and economical international order? - Who fights for supremacy in current world?

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occidentale n reaezarea relaiilor de putere internaionale ? - Criza economic este o ocazie pentru reaezarea acestor raporturi de putere mondial ? - Unde suntem n raporturile de putere mondial, care ne sunt prediciile pentru viitor ? Scris n anul 1997, Ciocnirea Civilizaiilor o considerm a fi cartea de cpti pentru toi cei care doresc nelegerea micrilor geopolitice de dup cderea comunismului. Lucrarea se bazeaz pe ideea c la sfritul secolului XX i nceputul secolului XXI, naiunile lumii nu vor mai fi desprite de posibile apartenene la ideologii diferite ci de apartenena la culturi i civilizaii diferite. Este vorba, aici, despre o nelegere profund a lui Huntington care readuce n memoria lumii occidentale, rzboiul de mii de ani cu lumea arab, atrgnd n acelai timp atenia asupra evoluiilor chineze din ultimele decenii ale secolului XX.. Evident, lucrarea amintit a lui Huntington este mai actual ca niciodat. Dup rzboiul rece, lumea tinde s devin multipolar, fiecare pol de putere avnd n centrul su un stat nucleu. Este un semnal de alarm pentru America i lumea occidental care se pot trezi cu mai muli rivali afirmai pe scena politic mondial. Dup cderea URSS lumea civilizat a rmas ntr-un gen de expectativ, un fel de relaxare dup zeci de ani de dispute i rzboi rece sau mai puin rece. Este vorba despre o criz de aciune dar i despre o criz teoretic, doctrinar i chiar o criz politic din care trebuie sa ieim rapid. Dup cderea comunismului nu mai exist distincii doctrinare ntre rile lumii. Nici China, dincolo de steagurile sale roii arborate peste tot, nu mai putem spune c este o ar comunist. Putem cataloga China oricum am dori dar numai c este o ar comunist, nu ! De fapt multipolarismul este doar o tendin, neimpus nc definitiv, dar care se poate impune fr o strategie clar de viitor. Ar trebui sa mai spunem c America se afl acum la jumtatea drumului iar timpul impunerii definitive pare c a sosit. Dup un

- Which is Americas and Occidental civilization part in rearranging the international power relations? - is economical crisis an occasion to rearrange these world power reports? - Where are we in these reports, what are our predictions for the future? Written in the year 1997, Civilizations collision we consider it to be the most important book for all of those who want to understand the geopolitical movements after the fall-down of communism. The work is based on the idea that at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, the nations of the world will not be separated by the possible appurtenances to different ideologies, but by the appurtenance at different cultures and civilizations. It is about a profound understanding of what brings back in the memory of occidental world, the thousand years war with the Arabic world, pointing in the same time the attention of Chinese evolutions from the last decades of the 20th century. Obviously, Huntingtons work is more present that ever. After the cold war, the world tries to become multi-polar, every pole having a nucleus state in his centre. It is an alarm signal for America and the occidental world as they can face with a lot of rivals on the world political scene. After the fall of the URSS, civilized world remained in an expectation state, some kind of relaxation after tens of years of disputes and more or less cold war. It is about an action crisis, but also about a theoretical, doctrinal crisis and even an economical one. After the fall of communism there are no doctrine differences between the worlds countries. Not even China, besides its red flags from everywhere, is thought to be a communist country. We can catalogue China in any way, but not as a communist country! Actually, multi-polarity is just a trend, not stabilized yet, but one that can be imposed without a clear strategy for the future.

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sistem de putere mondial bipolar ( SUA URSS ), se poate trece la un sistem de putere unipolar ( cu un singur pol SUA i lumea occidental) evitndu-se un multipolarism periculos la scar planetar. Pax americana rmne un obiectiv de prim ordin, un proiect universal la care celelalte ri mai mult sau mai puin importante ale lumii se pot afilia. Un asemenea univers nu poate fi gndit n afara unor valori cum sunt bunstarea, demnitatea, solidaritatea civic, legea i multiculturalismul. n prezent exist, aa cum subliniaz i Henry Kissinger, 6 puteri care-i pot afirma tendina spre multipolarism. Este vorba despre SUA, China, Europa, Japonia, Rusia i India, mpreun cu o multitudine de ri de mrime mijlocie i mic. ngrijorrile lui Henry Kissinger nu sunt gratuite. Presiunea pentru o lume multipolar este foarte mare, iar eu cred c asemenea lume ar fi o lume a haosului. Pericolul unui rzboi cald s-ar menine ca o constant a vieii noastre de zi cu zi. Nimic mai ru superputeri aparinnd unor civilizaii diferite. Occidentul este i trebuie s rmn cea mai puternic dintre civilizaii, putere afirmat n fiecare clip pn la sfritul istoriei. Ne situm de partea lui Fukuyama care i imagineaz o lume care va intra ntr-o lung perioad de pace armonioas, atunci cnd America i lumea occidental i va afirma n mod definitiv valorile trebuie sa mrturisim c sfritul istoriei va fi urmtorul: punctul n care evoluia ideologic se va opri pentru ntreaga umanitate i se va universaliza democraia liberal occidental ca form final a guvernrii umane. Fukuyama admite c valorile politice, sociale i civice ale noastre sunt singurele confirmate de evoluia istoric i sunt singurele care pot duce la un proiect comun al dezvoltrii viitoare a civilizaiei umane. Dincolo de afirmarea acestor valori, multiculturalismul este un obiectiv ce trebuie atent cultivat permind o respiraie proprie a fiecrei ri ntr-un concert al naiunilor lumii. Ar fi o eroare s ne putem gndi la dispariia particularitilor legate de religie, de obiceiuri, de tradiiile populare. Fiecare ar este

America is at the half way of the road and the time of the definitive imposing seems to have arrived. After a world-wide bi-polar power system (USA-URSS), it can pass to a unique-polar power system (with USA and the occidental world) avoiding a multi polarities system dangerous at world-wide scale. Pax American remains a main order objective, an universal project at which the other countries more or less important can join. Such an universe cannot be thought outside some values like : welfare, dignity, civic solidarity, law and ... multiculturalism. Nowadays there are, as Henry Kissinger underlines, 6 powers that can affirm their tendencies to multi-polarity. These are the USA, China, Europe, Japan, Russia and India, along with numerous small and middle countries. Henry Kissingers concerns are not free. The pressure for a multi-polar world is very large, and I think that such a world would be a world of chaos. The danger of a warm war will be constant in our every day life. Nothing worst superpowers belonging to different civilizations. The West is and must remain the most powerful of the civilizations, power affirmed every minute until the end of history. We are on Fukuyamas side that imagines a world which will enter a period of harmony, when America and the Western world will affirm their values definitely. We must confess that the end of history will be the following: the point where ideological evolution will stop for all humanity and Western liberal democracy will be universal as a final form of human government. Fukuyama admits that political, social and civic values are the only ones confirmed by historic evolution and the only that can lead to a common project of future human civilization development. Beyond affirmation of these values, multiculturalism is an objective which should be carefully cultivated by allowing one's own breathing each country in a

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frumoas n felul su i i poate aduce o contribuie proprie la frumuseea lumii n ansamblu. Criza economic este o ocazie confirmat de deciziile Summitului G20, de la Londra din aprilie 2009, de a extinde binefacerile civilizaiei umane nspre statele n curs de dezvoltare i statele srace. Huntington avertizeaz i pe drept cuvnt c principala distincie a istoriei o reprezint sintagma occidentul i ceilali i c dincolo de civilizaie se afl barbaria. Civilizaia este cea mai durabil asociere comun, dincolo de aceasta aflndu-se, aa cum spuneam slbticia, barbaria. De fapt Rezoluia G20 din Aprilie 2009, subliniaz ncrederea i creterea economic dar i s stabilim bazele unei corecte i susinute economii. Recunoatem c actuala criz are un impact inegal asupra rilor srace i vulnerabile i recunoatem responsabilitatea colectiv pentru a diminua impactul social al crizei i pentru a minimaliza daunele de lung durat aduse potenialului mondial. Se spune de ctre unii specialiti c unipolarismul ar fi esenialmente instabil. Da, este posibil, numai c multipolarismul poate fi i mai instabil, mai ales atunci cnd este bazat pe state nucleu aparinnd unor civilizaii i culturi diferite. Huntington enumer marile civilizaii contemporane ca fiind : sinic, japonez, hindus, islamic, ortodox, occidental, latinoamerican, african. Instituii internaionale puternice, dezvoltarea tiinei i tehnologiei, multiculturalismul, acceptarea diferenei i impunerea de legi i reguli drepte n plan internaional sunt rspunsurile la diferene i posibile conflicte. Modernizarea este un proces pentru care merit s ne batem i care poate fi adus numai de ctre America i lumea occidental. Procesul de modernizare se manifest ncepnd cu secolul XVIII i implic industrializarea, urbanizarea, niveluri ridicate de alfabetizare, educaie, bogie, mobilizare social, dar i structuri ocupaionale mai complexe i mai diversificate Ea este produsul extraordinarei expansiuni a cunoaterii

concert of world nations. It would be an error to think of particulars relating to the disappearance of religion, customs and folk traditions. Every country is beautiful in its way and could make its own contribution to the overall beauty of the world. The economic crisis is an opportunity confirmed by G20 Summit decisions, in London in April 2009, to extend the benefits of human civilization into the developing and the poor states. Huntington warns properly that the main distinction of history is represented by the phrase "Western and the others" and that beyond civilization there is barbarism. Civilization is the most sustainable common association beyond this being, as I said the barbarism. In fact, the G20 resolution in April 2009, underlines the confidence and economic growth but also established the foundations for fair and sustainable economies. We recognize that the current crisis has an unevenly impact on poor and vulnerable countries and recognize collective responsibility to mitigate the social impact of the crisis and to minimize long term damage to the global potential. It is said by some experts that unipolarity would be essentially unstable. Yes, it is possible that only multy-polarity may be even more unstable, especially when it is based on state core belonging to different civilizations and cultures. Huntington lists major contemporary civilizations as: Sinica, Japanese, Hindi, Islamic, Orthodox, Western LatinAmerican, African. Strong international institutions, development of science and technology, multiculturalism, the acceptance of difference and the imposition of laws and rules in the international right are the answers to differences and potential conflicts. Modernization is a process that deserves to fight and which may be brought only by America and the Western world. The process of modernization is from XVIII century and involves industrialization,

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tiinifice i inginereti care a fcut posibil ca fiinele umane s controleze i s modifice mediul lor prin modaliti fr precedent. Modernizarea este un proces amplu, firesc i natural. Oricare dintre culturile i civilizaiile enumerate nu i se poate opune. Marginalizarea duce la marginalizare dup cum srcia duce la srcie. America trebuie s-i pstreze n primul rnd statutul de centru al inovrii, tehnologiei i tiinei. Restul ne putem gndi c ar fi un proces de impunere n mod natural. Dominaia economic i militar nu poate fi gndit n afara dominaiei tehnologice. Marele avantaj al Occidentului este acela c expansiunea sa a promovat n egal msur modernizarea i occidentalizarea societilor nonoccidentale. Arma secret este tiina, tehnologia i expansiunea economic prin intermediul lor. Cnd vorbim despre occidentalizarea lumii neoccidentale trebuie s subliniem limitele acestui proces. Tradiiile, culturile, religia vor rmne puternice n orice col al lumii, reprezentnd identitatea fiecrui individ. De fapt Orientul a fcut eforturi permanente n direcia antioccidentalizrii, mai ales China i Japonia . i islamul este o lume prin tradiie i prin prezent puternic antioccidental ( cu excepia Arabiei Sudite sau Emiratelor Arabe Unite ). De aceea trebuie s continum prin a spune c modernizarea nu nseamn neaprat occidentalizare. Lumea accept tehnologiile moderne, ca pstrare a fondului de tradiii proprii. Propria cultur, propriile valori rmn fundamentale. Tehnologia i modernizarea nu sunt n contradicie cu multiculturalismul. Chiar dac sistemul mondial bipolar (SUA URSS) s-a prbuit, suntem departe de afirmarea definitiv a occidentului n plan internaional. America a ntmpinat, pn la Barack Obama cteva dificulti n aceast afirmare, printre care finalul mandatului administraie, Bush, dificultile economice americane, imaginea proast n lume, a administraiei Bush, complicaiile rzboiului din Irak i Afganistan, scepticismul aliailor europeni n a se implica direct i hotrt din punct de vedere militar alturi de America, relaia sa cu Rusia. Sunt,

urbanization, high levels of literacy, education, wealth, social mobilization, and occupational structure more complex and diversified. It is the extraordinary expansion of scientific and engineering knowledge that has made possible for human beings to control and modify their environment in unprecedented ways. Modernization is comprehensive and natural. Any listed cultures and civilizations can not be opposed. Marginalization leads to marginalization as poverty leads to poverty. America must retain the first status of the centre of innovation, technology and science. The rest we can think that would be a process of imposing the natural environment. Economic and military dominance cannot be thought out technological dominance. The great advantage of the West is that the expansion has also promoted the modernization and westernization of non-western companies. The secret weapons are science, technology and economic expansion through them. When we talk about westernization of notwesternized world, we should emphasize the limits of this process. Traditions, cultures, religion will remain strong in any part of the world, representing the identity of each individual. Actually, Middle East made ongoing efforts towards anti westernization, especially China and Japan. And Islam is a world by tradition and by now - strongly anti-westernized (except Saudi Arabia or United Arab Emirates). Therefore we should continue by saying that modernization does not necessarily mean westernization. World supports technologies that preserve the fund's own traditions. Own culture, their values remain fundamental. Technology and modernization are not in contradiction with multiculturalism. Even if the bipolar world (U.S. - USSR) collapsed, we are far from definitive affirmation of the West in the world. America had, by Barack Obama several difficulties in this assertion, including the end of Bushs office

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the U.S. economic ns, provocri n mare parte rezolvate o dat cu administration, difficulties, poor image in the world, the venirea lui Barack Obama. Bush administration, complications of war Criza economic actual este o in Iraq and Afghanistan, scepticism of excelent ocazie pentru a ntri pe cei ce pot fi European allies to engage directly and tari i a slabi pe cei care nu-i pot depi decided in the military along with America, limitele. China poate fi izolat pe plan its relationship with Russia. There are, internaional astfel nct s nu dezvolte reflexe however, challenges largely resolved once de putere regional sau chiar planetar. Prin the coming of Barack Obama. dolar politica sa economic poate fi influenat, Current economic crisis is an dup cum prin prezena militar n regiune (Irak, Afganistan), resursele mari pentru excellent opportunity to strengthen those dezvoltare de care are nevoie pot fi conduse i who can be strong and to weaken people influenate. Semnele decadenei noastre pot fi who cannot exceed the limits. China can be oprite, dup cum semnele creterii altor worldwide isolated so as not to develop civilizaii pot fi luate n considerare i acionat regional power reflexes or even planet. U.S. dollars through its economic policy can be n consecin. influenced, as the military presence in the Moneda puternic susinut de region (Iraq, Afghanistan), major resources tehnologii puternice este sintagma, dualitatea, development needs to be led and influenced. Signs of our decadence may be cadrul de manifestare a economiei americane. A treia Rom, aa cum mi place s-i terminated, as increasing signs of other spun, este o lume a afirmrii definitive a civilizations can be considered and acted potenialului inovator tehnic i de atitudine accordingly. uman. Spiritul cartezian, al Europei clasice Strong currency backed by powerful motenit de americani i va reafirma i n acest technology is the phrase, duality, the secol superioritatea. Huntington militeaz la rndul su manifestation of the American economy. pentru o alian ntre America i Rusia care ar Third Rome, as I like to call it, is a rezolva definitiv problema de echilibru de world of potential definitive affirmation of putere n Eurasia. Pentru aceasta ar fi nevoie de innovative technical and human attitude. cteva msuri : Cartesian spirit, Europe's classical, the 1. acceptarea, din partea ruilor, a legacy of Americans will reaffirm the extinderii Uniunii Europene i a N.A.T.O. n superiority of this century. privina includerii statelor cretin occidentale Huntington campaigns to an alliance din Europa Central i de Est i asigurarea between America and Russia that would occidental de a nu mai extinde N.A.T.O.,n definitely solve the problem of balance of afar de cazul n care Ucraina se mparte n power in Eurasia. To do this several steps dou ri; are required: 1. acceptance by the Russians, of 2. un tratat de parteneriat ntre Rusia i N.A.T.O. care s includ garanii de non- the enlargement of European Union and agresiune, consultri regulate pe probleme de NATO with regard to Western Christian securitate, eforturi comune pentru a evita cursa Member of Central and Eastern Europe and narmrilor i negocieri n legtur cu Western ensuring not to expand NATO, acordurile controlului de arme, adecvate unless that Ukraine is divided into two nevoilor de securitate din perioada posterioar countries; Rzboiului Rece. 2. a partnership treaty between 3. recunoaterea, din partea Russia and NATO to include guarantees of
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occidentalilor, a faptului c Rusia este n principal responsabil pentru meninerea securitii rilor ortodoxe i a ariilor n care ortodoxia predomin. 4. admiterea de ctre Occident a problemelor de securitate, actualitate i poteniale, cu care Rusia se confrunt din partea popoarelor musulmane din sud i voina de a revizui tratatul F.C.E.i de a fi dispui favorabil n legtur cu ali pai de ctre Rusia ar avea nevoie pentru a trata asemenea ameninri. 5. acordul ntre Rusia i Occident pentru a coopera de pe poziii egale n tratarea unor asemenea probleme, cum ar fi Bosnia, ce implic deopotriv interesele occidentale i pe cele ortodoxe. Preedintele Medvedev sintetiza o strategie global a Rusiei pentru perioada urmtoare: - O ordine internaional bazat pe principii i reguli. Prin acest obiectiv primordial Rusia vrea, de fapt, s beneficieze de predictibilitate i stabilitate, avnd n vedere c interesele sale sunt complexe, iar atingerea lor greu de gestionat pe att de multiple planuri. - O ordine pluripolar sau multipolar. - O ordine care s exclud confruntarea. Principiul este corect i presupune reforma instituiilor internaionale, dar el poate ascunde i contiina faptul ca Rusia, pe termen mediu i lung, nu are resurse pentru a se confrunta cu ceilali actori globali. - O ordine care s admit dreptul Rusiei de a-i apra cetenii, oriunde s-ar afla ei n lume. Aceasta este, de fapt, o abordare naionalist care totodat, transform scopul n mijloc. - O ordine n care Rusiei s i se recunoasc interesele n zonele din imediata vecintate. n mod evident, aceasta este o revenire la sferele de influen, ceea ce este inacceptabil i demonstreaz c Rusia trebuie s-i modernizeze conceptul de multipolarism. Din acest set de principii singura posibil problem ar putea fi ridicat de sintagma ordine pluripolar sau multipolar. Nu se tie prea bine ce nelege Rusia prin aceast sintagm. Cu timpul Rusia va trebui s accepte o lume unipolar n care America este

non-aggression, regular consultations on security issues, joint efforts to prevent arms race and negotiations about arms control agreements, adequate security needs after the Cold War period. 3. recognition of the Westerners, that Russia is primarily responsible for maintaining the security of the orthodox area and the prevailing orthodoxy. 4. acceptance by the West security issues, current and potential, with which Russia is facing in the Muslim peoples of south and willingness to revise the treaty FCE and be favourably willing in relation to other steps by Russia would need to treat such threats. 5. agreement between Russia and the West to cooperate on an equal position in the treatment of such problems, like Bosnia, involving both Western interests and the churches. President Medvedev synthesize a strategy for Russia for the next period: - An international order based on principles and rules. With this primary objective Russia would, in fact, enjoy the predictability and stability, given that interests are complex and hard to achieve their managed so many plans. - A pluri-polar and multi-polar order. - An order to exclude confrontation. The principle is correct and assumes reform of international institutions, but he can hide and conscience that Russia, medium and long term, has no resources to face other global actors. - An order to admit the right of Russia to defend their citizens, wherever they are in the world. This is actually a nationalist approach who also turns purpose in the middle order. - An order in which Russia should recognize the interests of the immediate neighbourhood. Clearly, this is a return to the spheres of influence, which is unacceptable and shows that Russia needs to modernize the concept of multi-polarity.

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numrul unu. Pentru aceasta Rusia va trebui, atras definitiv de partea Americii i a lumii occidentale i desprit de jocul su de interese ( mai mult sau mai puin mimate) din Asia. Ne exprimm pentru afirmarea definitiv a Americii i revenirea la unipolarism bazndune pe cteva considerente: - puterea economic a Americii este mai mare dect a oricrui competitor global; - puterea tehnologic i de cercetare a Americii este, de asemenea, cea mai mare din lume ; - economia american este mai puternic dect a Europei, a Chinei i a Rusiei i este cea mai puternic din lume; - America are capabiliti militare superioare tehnologic i cantitativ att fa de Rusia, ct i fa de China; - sistemul educaional i de cercetare nord-american, este cel mai performant din lume ; Att Barack Obama ct i John McCain au avut n agendele lor revenirea hegemonismului american. Problema este legat de instrumentele folosite pentru a atinge acest scop. Porumbelul democrat care a i ctigat alegerile s-ar putea s aib anse mai mari de atingere a obiectivului de supremaie american . America trebuie s fie contient c dezordinea global de azi ( i criza economic este un efect al acestei dezordini) nu poate continua mult timp fr a sfri n haos. O lume nonpolar poate deveni rapid o lume haotic. Devine astfel imperativ reaezarea structurilor de putere n favoarea civilizaiei occidentale. Trebuie alternate posibilitile militare i de intervenie n for cu dialogul, garantarea pcii i a stabilitii i n acelai timp cu iradierea i nu constrngerea la o scar tot mai mare. Ne aflm ntr-o lume mult schimbat sub aspectul rolului n care noile tehnologii i comunicaii l joac n planul relaiilor ntre stat.

From this set of principles the only possible problem could be raised by the phrase " pluri-polar or multi-polar order. It is not known exactly what Russia understands with this phrase. Over time, Russia will have to accept a uni-polar world in which America is number one. To do this Russia will have to be drawn to Americas and the Western world and to be separated from his interests game (more or less minimized) in Asia. We express for the definitive affirmation of America and return to uni-polarity based on several: - America's economic power is greater than any global competitor - the technological research of America is also the largest in the world - the U.S. economy is stronger than in Europe, China and Russia and is the strongest in the world - America has the military capabilities and superior technology to quantitatively both Russia and China against - education and research of North American is the best performing in the world Both Barack Obama and John McCain had their agendas in American hegemonic return. The problem is related to instruments used to achieve this purpose. Democrat "Dove" who won the election might have a greater chance of reaching the target of American supremacy. America should be aware that today's global disorder (and the economic crisis is a result of such disorders) can not long continue without end in chaos. A world non-polar can quickly become a chaotic world. It is therefore imperative to rearrange power structures in favour of Western civilization. Possibilities and military intervention force have to be alternated with dialogue, guaranteeing Sistemul internaional trebuie s asigure peace and stability and at the same time as o prosperitate ct mai mare pentru ct mai muli radiation and no constraint on a scale

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oameni, stabilitate i predictibilitate, precum i evitarea rzboaielor. Aprarea echilibrului ecologic nu trebuie pus deoparte. Transferul spre noua ordine mondial, unipolar, trebuie fcut rapid i n mod panic, nct golul lsat n urma sa de rzboiul rece s nu fie valorificat n favoarea haosului i dezordinii mondiale. Statele luate n mod individual, nu dispun de instrumente de influenare a unor asemenea procese, este nevoie de reguli, de instituii i de garanii. Ceteanul european are nevoie s tie c viaa sa nu trebuie pus n pericol de un accident similar celui de la Cernobl dup cum orice cetean al planetei trebuie s tie ce costuri implic pentru el o industrializare maxim a Chinei, fr ca acest stat s respecte regulile de mediu. Atragem atenia c majoritatea conceptelor cu care opereaz tiina relaiilor internaionale sunt realizate n epoca rzboiului rece i ca urmare se afl ntr-o stare de inoperabilitate. Noul se impune rapid iar acoperirea sa teoretic ne este indispensabil. Integrarea economic rapid i politic internaional va face s discutm n curnd despre omaj global, inflaie global, recesiune sau cretere economic mondial. Securizarea unipolarismului ni se pare unul din obiectivele eseniale, de atins pe termen scurt sau mediu. Nu este vorba despre o armat planetar (concept greu de delimitat teoretic n acest moment) ci de asumarea unui rol mai hotrt de ctre NATO i America. Chiar dac creterea militar nu va fi folosit n mod clar pentru sporirea bogiei i expansiunea teritorial a marilor puteri, componena hard power, rmne un factor important n determinarea relaiilor economice internaionale. Absena sau prezena unei componente militare determin n mod decisiv ca un factor internaional, indiferent de mrimea i statutul su s fie considerat slab sau puternic, apt sau inapt pentru aprarea intereselor sale i promovarea prioritilor sale n lume, sensibil sau ireversibil la anumite provocri, activ sau pasiv n relaiile economice i politice cu lumea. Puterea militar va rmne un aspect important n determinarea i stabilirea

increasing. We are in a world changed a lot in terms of the role of new technology and communication play in relations between the state plan. International system should ensure a larger prosperity for more people, stability and predictability and to avoid wars. Defending the ecological balance should not be put aside. Transfer to the new world order, uni-polar, must be done quickly and peacefully, that the gap left in the wake of the cold war should not be exploited for global chaos and disorder. Taken individually, do not have the tools to influence such processes, we need rules, institutions and guarantees. Citizen need to know that his life should not be placed in danger of an accident similar to Chernobyl as any citizen of the planet should know what cost it involves for a maximum industrialization of China, without this state to follow the rules of the environment. Note that most operating concepts with knowledge of international relations are carried out in the cold war era and therefore are in a state of inoperability. The fast is required to cover theoretical and it is indispensable. Rapid economic integration and international political will to talk soon about global unemployment, inflation, global recession and global economic growth. Securing uni-polarity seems one of the essential objectives, to achieve on short or medium term. There is an planet army (concept hardly limited theoretical at this point) but assuming a role more decided by NATO and America. Even if increased military will not be used clearly to enhance wealth and territorial expansion of the great powers, the composition of "hard power" remains an important factor in determining international economic relations. Absence or presence of a military component is determined as a decisive international factor, regardless of its size and status to be considered strong or weak, capable or unfit to defend its interests and promote its priorities in the world, sensitive

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ierarhiilor globale iar America prin potenialul su tehnologic trebuie s demonstreze c poate fi inatacabil chiar n condiiile n care armamentul de toate categoriile, inclusiv armamentul nuclear prolifereaz peste tot n lume. Trebuie s evitm pentru viitor reinstalarea unui echilibru al terorii ntr-o lume multipolar ( dominat de existena mai multor criterii de putere ) din mai multe motive: extinderea potenialului nuclear i de narmare pe planet : - imposibilitatea de a controla problemele de mediu; accentuarea concurenei economice i a pericolului izolrii a unor regiuni ntregi ale planetei : - intensificarea srciei i a subdezvoltrii n regiuni controlate de centre de putere nedemocratice; - involuii n planul cunoaterii i al extinderii binefacerilor tehnologiilor moderne; Echilibrul terorii ntr-o lume multipolar poate duce rapid la sfritul definitiv al civilizaiei umane moderne, aa cum noi o cunoatem azi .

or irreversible to challenges, active or passive in relations with political and economic world. Military power will remain an important aspect in determining and setting global hierarchies and America through its technological potential must demonstrate that it may be unassailable even in conditions in which all categories of weapons, including nuclear weapons proliferate across the world. You must avoid to reinstall for the future balance of terror in a world multipolar (dominated by the existence of several criteria of power) for several reasons: - extension and potential nuclear arms on the planet the inability to control environmental problems, - increased economic competition and threat of isolation of entire regions of the planet - the intensification of poverty and underdevelopment in the regions controlled by undemocratic power centres; The balance of terror in a multipolar world can quickly lead to the definitive end of modern human civilization as we know today.

GRADUL DE DEPENDEN AL CELORLALTE CIVILIZAII FA DE AMERICA

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Civilizaia Sinic Japonez Hindus Islamic Ortodox Occidental Latino-american African DEPENDEN Dependen Dominaie economic militar 7 2 9 9 8 5 8 8 7 1 9 10 8 10 6 10 Compatibilitate cultural 1 2 2 1 8 10 8 5 EFECTELE DEPENDENEI Aliat Adversar Duman 1 7 5 1 5 10 7 9 3 5 5 3 1 9 9 -

*Pe o scar de la 1 la 10 DEPENDENCY DEGREE OF OTHER CIVILIZATIONS TOWARDS AMERICA DEPENDENCY DEPENDENCY EFFECTS

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Economic Civilization dependency

Military domination 2 9 5 8 1 10 10 10

Cultural compatibility 1 2 2 1 8 10 8 5

Ally 1 7 5 1 5 10 7 9

Adve rsary 3 5 5 3 1

Enemy 9 9 -

Sinic 7 Japanese 9 Hindus 8 Islamic 8 Orthodox 7 Western 9 Latin8 American 8 African 6 *On a scale from 1 to 10

Dac ar fi s lum n considerare relaiile pe care America le are cu celelalte civilizaii vom ajunge la un tablou care nu poate fi dect uor ngrijortor i care demonstreaz pn acum teoriile lui Huntington c lumea merge spre un multipolarism bazat n primul rnd pe afiniti culturale i de civilizaie. Avem dou mari dumnii, este vorba despre civilizaia sinic i cea islamic. Aici rolurile nu pot fi regndite iar soluiile nu pot fi reinventate. Iranul (exponent de baz, vrful de lance al lumii arabe) i China nu vor fi niciodat credem aliai sau adversari. Compatibilitatea cultural este foarte redus mpiedicnd n totalitate ceea ce am putea numi un dialog ntre civilizaii. Rzboiul este singura soluie n acest cadru. Fie c este vorba despre rzboiul economic, cultural, sau chiar rzboiul cald. Rzboiul economic este de preferat lund n calcul dependena pe care o apreciem ca foarte important, de America. Ne referim la dependena economic. De altfel China depinde n mare msur de importurile americane i nu va fi niciodat o putere regional sau global dac lumea civilizat va privi cu atenie viitorul. China nu are spaiu vital, nu are resurse necesare, nu are tehnologiile necesare i mai ales nu are sistemul economic performant necesar pentru afirmare global. China construiete un gen de complex economic-politic, atipic pe care nu-l poate impune regiunii i mai ales lumii ntregi. De asemenea compatibilitatea sa cultural cu America i restul lumii este limitat,

If you were to take into account the relations that America has with the other civilizations we will get a picture that can only be slightly worrying that so far shows Huntington's theory that the world goes to a multi-polarism based primarily on cultural affinity and of civilization. We have two great enemies; it's about Sinic civilization and the Islamic one. Here the roles may not be rethought and solutions can not be reinvented. Iran (exponent base of the spear tip of the Arab world) and China will never be allies or adversaries. Cultural compatibility is very low preventing entirely what we might call a dialogue between civilizations. War is the only solution in this context. Whether it's economic war, cultural, or even hot war. Economic war is preferable taking into account the dependence that we consider as very important for America. We refer to dependence. Moreover, China is highly dependent on U.S. imports and will never be a regional or global power if civilized world watches carefully to the future. China has no living space, no needed resources, does not have necessary technologies and especially the economic system required for efficient global assertion. China builds a kind of economic-political complex, atypical that cannot be imposed to the region and especially the world. Also its cultural compatibility with the rest of

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diferenele fiind aproape de nedepit. Criza economic i efectele sale printre care cel mai important este expansiunea capitalului american pot pune n stare de repaus, ceea ce analitii politici s-au grbit s numeasc miracolul chinez. Cel mai puternic aliat al Americii este lumea occidental. Aceasta este dominat militar i economic puternic iar compatibilitatea cultural o apreciem a fi spre maximum. Lumea ortodox i cea hindus le apreciem ca fiind la jumtatea distanei fa de America, bineneles innd cont, pentru fiecare, de diferenele culturale ce le separ. Rusia este mai aproape iar dialogul mai facil. Chiar dac nu este compatibil cultural, apreciem c lumea de azi, chiar cu stngciile politicii externe americane de dup Rzboiul Rece, depinde n mare msur economic i militar de SUA. Exist dou variante ori aceste dependene se adncesc i America i afirm hegemonia n plan global, ori slbesc provocnd ceea ce numim noi de centrii de putere ntre care dialogul poate fi n unele cazuri extrem de sczut. De fapt potenialul de a dialoga scade odat cu diferenele de ordin cultural. Barierele impuse de limb, religie, tradiii par a fi destul de greu de trecut. Este de subliniat c potenialul de dialog scade acolo unde statul nucleu este foarte puternic.

America and the world is limited, the differences being almost not-excisable. Economic crisis and its effects among the most important is that the expansion of U.S. capital can be in a state of rest, which political analysts were quick to call "Chinese miracle". The most powerful ally of Western world is America. It is dominated economically and militarily and cultural compatibility can be appreciated as going to the maximum. We appreciate Church World and Hindus as being halfway on America, of course taking into account, for each the cultural differences that separate them. Russia is closer and easier to dialogue. Even if cultural is not compatible, we appreciate that the world today, even with the faults of American foreign policy after the Cold War, largely depends on economic and U.S. military. There are two options - either these dependencies deepen and America affirms its hegemony in global plan or weaken and cause what we call new power connections between dialogue may be in some cases extremely low. It is emphasized that the potential for dialogue falls where the nucleus is very strong.

Posibilitile de dialog/intervenie militar ale Americii n raport cu statele nucleu ale altor civilizaii Civilizaie Stat nucleu Dialog Sinic Japonez Hindus Islamic Ortodox Occidental Latino-american African China Japonia India Iran Rusia Germania; Frana Brazilia Redus Da Da Redus Da Da Da Da

Intervenie militar Nu Da Nu Redus Nu Nu Da Da

Dialog possibilities/military intervention of America in report with other civilizations nucleus states Civilization State nucleus Dialog Military

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Japan Japanese Hindus Islamic Orthodox Western Latin-American African

China Japan India Iran Russia Germany; France Brazil

Low Yes Yes Low Yes Yes Yes Yes

intervention No Yes No Low No No Yes Yes

Pe nesimite pe parcursul secolului XX, preocupat de problema rivalitii cu Rusia, America a permis dezvoltarea unor capaciti militare nucleare de ctre China, India, Pakistan i posibil mai nou, Iran. Intervenia militar nu ar fi posibil n multe pri ale lumii dac lumea actual s-ar dezvolta rapid pe coordonatele actuale. Oprirea cu orice pre a Iranului de a dezvolta capaciti militare nucleare pare a fi prioritatea zero a Americii. Ceea ce s-a ctigat cu trud n aceast zon geografic se poate pierde rapid n cazul unei ameninri cu arma nuclear a intervalelor din acest spaiu. Dac dialogul este posibil cu oricine, intervenia militar, deja nu mai poate fi folosit oriunde. Pentru America se impune pe termen scurt: - dezvoltarea unor capaciti militare care s poat muta un eventual rzboi cald/clasic cu orice parte a lumii, n orice moment ; - dezvoltarea unor capaciti militare care s descurajeze orice posibil atac/ameninare de tipul rzboiului stelelor ; - dezvoltarea de noi tehnologii de aprare/atac prin folosirea spaiului extraterestru. China i Iranul sunt dou ri poli de putere sau state nucleu care trebuiesc atent supravegheate din punct de vedere militar i economic. Nu este vorba aici de condamnarea lor la napoiere sau oprirea dezvoltrii lor economice. Este vorba despre faptul c datorit regimurilor lor politice, ascensiunea lor poate provoca dezechilibre majore n plan ecologic i militar. i n cazul lor dezvoltarea cere dezvoltare i expansiunea cere expansiune, astfel nct nu vom fi att de

Imperceptibly during the twentieth century, concerned with the problem of rivalry with Russia, America has allowed the development of military nuclear capabilities by China, India, Pakistan and possibly later, Iran. Military intervention would not be possible in many parts of the world if today's world would develop rapidly on the current coordinates. Stopping at any cost Irans developing military nuclear capabilities seems to be a top priority of America. What was painfully earned in this geographical area may be lost quickly in the event of a nuclear weapon with ranges in this space. If dialogue is possible with anyone, military intervention, can not be used anywhere. America is required for short-term: - the development of military capabilities which could possibly move a hot/classic war with any part of the world, at any time - the development of military capabilities to move any possible attack / threat of war stars type; - developing new technologies for defence / attack using alien space. China and Iran are two countries poles of power or nucleus state that need to be carefully monitored in terms of military and economic aspects. It is not about condemnation or stopping economic development. It's about their political regimes, their rise can cause major imbalances in the ecological and military plans. And if their development requires

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naivi nct sa credem c ne vom opri la a nu atinge cumva interesele Americii i lumii occidentale. Criza economic este o excelent ocazie pentru a ntrii supravegherea lor i a le determina la respectarea lor i a le determina la respectarea normelor de convieuire planetar. Supravegherea poate fi economic dar i militar. Miguel Pedrero, n lucrarea sa Corupia marilor puteri arat c n prezent, strategia militar american const n controlarea aciunilor Chinei. Mainria de rzboi a Statelor Unite este prezent n Marea Chinei i n strmtoarea Taiwanului, teritoriu rebel fa de China continental, care se bazeaz pe protecia militar american.

expansion, so we will not be so naive as to believe that we will not stop to achieve the interests of America and some Western world. The economic crisis is an excellent opportunity to strength their supervision and to determine compliance with the rules of planetary living. Supervision may be military, but also economic. Miguel Pedrero, in his work "Great powers corruption" shows that at present, U.S. military strategy consists in controlling the actions of China. United States war machine is present in the China Sea and the Strait of Taiwan, "rebel" territory against China, which relies on U.S. military protection.

Potenialul de apropiere/neutralitate ntre America i alte civilizaii n condiiile globalizrii n urmtorii 30 de ani Efectele apropierii economice Civilizaia Stat nucleu Apropiere economic Aliat Adversar Duman Sinic Japonez Hindus Islamic Ortodox Occidental Latino american African China Japonia India Iran Rusia Germania Frana Brazilia 8 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 5 9 8 5 8 10 10 10 5 1 2 5 2 -

Approach potential/neutralities between America and other civilizations in terms of globalization in the following 30 years Civilization Nucleus stat Economical approach 8 10 10 10 9 10 10 Economic approach effects Ally 5 9 8 5 8 10 10 Adversary 5 1 2 5 2 Enemy -

Sinic Japanese Hindus Islamic Orthodox Western Latin

China Japan India Iran Russia Germany France Brazil

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American African

10

Propunem n urmtorii 30 de ani urmtoarele evoluii : - rezolvarea apropierii fa de Rusia prin apartenena acestei ri la NATO i UE ; deschiderea economic, cultural i militar a Chinei ca ar egal i responsabilcu celelalte state; - interzicerea dependenei Chinei fa de America prin dezvoltarea de noi tehnologii de ctre lumea occidental; - interzicerea copierii acestei tehnologii n China prin respectarea de ctre aceast ar a normelor de comer internaional; - apropierea definitiv a Indiei i transformarea sa ntr-un aliat puternic al SUA n Orientul ndeprtat ; - finalizarea rzboiului cald cu lumea islamic i impunerea unor standarde de via civilizat pentru acest spaiu geografic; - eliminarea potenialului de putere nuclear pe care l poate dezvolta Iranul i pstrarea acestui stat ntr-un cordon de supraveghere n care Israelul va juca n continuare un rol esenial; - rezolvarea problemelor legate de nivelul de trai n lumea latino-american i cea african. Lumea a doua i a treia trebuie s beneficieze n viitor de o atenie aparte din partea Americii. Conceptele de aliat , adversar, duman, pe care le folosim difer de limbajul geopolitic al secolului trecut. Aliatul nu trebuie s fie neaprat membru al NATO dup cum dumanul poate s fie o ar care, din punct de vedere tehnologic nu poate declara niciodat rzboi lumii occidentale. Este vorba despre gradul n care civilizaia respectiv mprtete valorile legate de respectul fa de lege, al dreptului internaional, al regulilor de comer liber, al regulilor privitoare la dreptul de autor (foarte important ntr-o lume a descoperirilor tehnologice permanente). Lumea se schimb iar tehnologiile dein rolul decisiv n aceast schimbare, apropiere ntre naiuni nucleu i civilizaii.

We suggest the following developments for the next 30 years: - solving the approach to Russia through membership in NATO and the EU - economic openness, cultural and military of China as a country and equal responsible with other states - China's dependency prohibition against America by developing new technologies by the Western world - prohibition of copying this technology in China by compliance with the country international trade rules - final approach to India and its transformation into a strong ally in the Far East - the completion of hot war with Islamic world and to impose standards of civilized life for this geographic area - eliminating the potential for nuclear power you can develop Iran and keeping this in a string of supervision in which Israel will continue to play an essential role - solve problems related to living standards in the world of Latin American and African. World second and third should benefit in future attention apart from America. The concepts of "ally", "adversary", "enemy" that we use differs from the language of geopolitical century. "Ally" should not necessarily be a member of NATO as the enemy can be a country in terms of technology may never declare war Western world. It's about the extent to which civilization that shares the values of respect for law, of international law, the rules of free trade, the rules relating to copyright (very important in a world of technological discoveries permanent). The world is changing and technology has a decisive role in this change, the kernel approximation between nations and civilizations.

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Huntington enumer modaliti de aciune n vederea asigurrii pe viitor a hegemoniei civilizaiei occidentale n lume : - s realizeze o mai mare integrare politic, economic i militar i s-i coordoneze politicile, n aa fel nct s prentmpine ca statele din alte civilizaii s exploateze diferenele dintre ele: - s ncorporeze n Uniunea European i n NATO statele occidentale din Europa central, adic rile de la Viegrad, republicile baltice, Slovenia i Croaia ; - s ncurajeze occidentalizarea Americii Latine i, n msura posibilului, alinierea strns a rilor latino-americane cu Occidentul ; - s mpiedice dezvoltarea puterii militare, convenionale i neconvenionale, a rilor islamice i sinice; - s ncetineasc tendina Japoniei de ndeprtare fa de Occident i de acomodare cu China; - s accepte Rusia ca stat de nucleu al Ortodoxiei i ca putere regional cu interese legitime legate de securitatea frontierelor sale sudice; - s menin superioritatea tehnologic i militar occidental asupra altor civilizaii ; - cel mai important, s recunoasc faptul c intervenia occidental n treburile altor civilizaii este probabil cea mai periculoas surs de instabilitate i de potenial conflict global ntr-o lume multicivilizaional.

Huntington lists ways of action to ensure the future hegemony of Western civilization in the world - to achieve greater political, economic and military integration and to coordinate policies so as to prevent the states of other civilizations to exploit differences of them - to incorporate in the European Union and NATO in Western countries from central Europe, namely the Visegrad countries, Baltic republics, Slovenia and Croatia; - To encourage "westernization" Latin America and, where possible, align closely Latin American countries with the West - to prevent the development of military power, conventional and unconventional, and Islamic countries and Sinic ones - to tend to slow the removal of Japan from West and accommodation with China - to accept Russia as a nucleus of Orthodoxies and regional power with legitimate interests of its southern border security - to maintain the technological and military superiority of Western civilization on other civilizations; - most importantly, to recognize that Western intervention into other civilizations is probably the most dangerous source of instability and potential global conflict in a multi-civilized world.

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