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MINISTERUL EDUCAIEI, CERCETRII,

TINERETULUI I SPORTULUI
UNIVERSITATEA VALAHIA DIN TRGOVITE
IOSUD COALA DOCTORAL DE TIINE ECONOMICE I
UMANISTE
Domeniul MANAGEMENT

REZUMAT TEZ DE DOCTORAT


MANAGEMENTUL CRIZELOR I
CONFLICTELOR N EUROPA DE
S-E FACTOR DETERMINANT
AL STABILITII ECONOMICE
CONDUCTOR DE DOCTORAT:
Prof. univ. dr. Ion PRGARU
Doctorand:
Nicolae
ROTARU

Sorinel

TRGOVITE
2012
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Pagin lsat intenionat goal


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CUPRINS
CUPRINS............................................................................................................... 3
CUPRINSUL TEZEI DE DOCTORAT ........................................................................ 4
INTRODUCERE ..................................................................................................... 7
Conflicte n Balcani .......................................................................................... 9
Terorismul ..................................................................................................... 10
Criza energetic ............................................................................................. 11
Criza economic mondial ............................................................................ 12
Rolul UE n managementul crizelor i conflictelor ............................................ 16
Organizaia Mondial a Comerului .................................................................. 26
Romnia n actualul context de securitate ........................................................ 27
Lista lucrrilor publicate .................................................................................... 30
BIBLIOGRAFIE .................................................................................................... 31
CURRICULUM VITAE .......................................................................................... 50
PhD THESIS TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................. 53
Introduction ................................................................................................... 55
Conflicts in the Balkans ................................................................................. 58
Terrorism ....................................................................................................... 59
The energy crisis ............................................................................................ 60
World economic crisis ................................................................................... 61
The European Unions role in crisis and conflict management ..................... 64
NATOs role in crisis and conflict management ............................................ 69
World Trade Organization ............................................................................. 73
Romania and the present security context ................................................... 75
CURRICULUL VITAE ........................................................................................ 78

CUPRINSUL TEZEI DE DOCTORAT


CAPITOLUL 1. METODOLOGIE, METODE I INSTRUMENTE DE CERCETARE
CAPITOLUL 2. CRIZE I CONFLICTE N EUROPA DE SUD-EST
2.1. Abordare teoretic a unor noiuni
2.2. Ameninri n sfera securitii n Europa de S-E
2.2.1. Conflicte n Balcani
2.2.1.1. Bosnia i Heregovina
2.2.1.2. Kosovo
2.2.1.3. Macedonia
2.2.1.4. Serbia, Muntenegru
2.2.1.5. Consecine i riscuri
2.2.2. Terorismul
2.2.3. Criza energetic
2.2.4. Criza economic mondial
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2.3. Tendina de globalizare a crizelor i conflictelor


CAPITOLUL 3. STRATEGII DE MANAGEMENT AL CRIZELOR I CONFLICTELOR
3.1. Abordare teoretic a managementului crizelor i conflictelor
3.2 Rolul UE n managementul crizelor i conflictelor
3.2.1 Consideraii generale asupra capacitii UE de asigurare a securitii
globale
3.2.2. Conceptul UE de management al crizelor
3.2.3. Managementul crizelor i conflictelor n Europa de S-E
3.2.4. De la pactul de stabilitate pentru Europa de Sud-Est la Consiliul
Cooperrii Regionale
3.3. Rolul NATO n managementul crizelor i conflictelor
3.3.1. Consideraii generale asupra capacitii NATO de asigurare a securitii
globale
3.3.2. Conceptul NATO de management al crizelor
3.3.3. Managementul crizelor i conflictelor n Europa de S-E
3.4. Relaia UE-NATO
3.5. Organizaia Mondial a Comerului
CAPITOLUL 4. ROMNIA N ACTUALUL CONTEXT DE SECURITATE
CAPITOLUL 5. CONTRIBUII PERSONALE
CAPITOLUL 6. CONCLUZII
BIBLIOGRAFIE
BIBLIOGRAFIE ELECTRONIC
LISTA ABREVIERILOR
LISTA TABELELOR
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LISTA FIGURILOR
Anexa nr. 1
Atacuri euate, dejucate i executate n 2011
Anexa nr. 2
Asistena financiar acordat de UE statelor din Balcanii de vest aflate n
procedurile de preaderare
Anexa. nr. 3
Principalii indicatori macroeconomici pentru statele candidate sau aflate n
procesul de pre-aderare la UE
Anexa nr. 4
Membrii Consiliului Cooperrii Regionale
Anexa nr. 5
Runde de negocieri GATT
Anexa nr. 6
Reglementrile OMC
Anexa nr. 7
Previziuni principale pentru Romnia

INTRODUCERE
Lucrarea urmrete continuarea i adncirea demersurilor
tiinifice asupra unor tematici ce au fost anterior abordate de
autor, precum i extinderea analizei la alte aspecte ce au devenit
de importana major ntre timp, precum criza energetic i cea
economic, subiecte ce domin agenda de lucru a principalelor
organizaii internaionale i a guvernelor naionale din Europa de
Sud-Est i nu numai. Lucrarea i propune o abordare unitar a
principalelor ameninri la adresa securitii n zona continentului
european, a impactului pe care acestea l au, a modului n care se
realizeaz managementul acestora, cu scopul de a se putea
ntrevedea perspectivele acestor fenomene i a schia aciunile ce
ar putea fi adoptate n vederea asigurrii securitii i stabilitii n
zona Europei de Sud-Est.
Prezenta lucrare i propune realizarea unei teorii generale
a modului n care se realizeaz managementul situaiilor de criz
i al conflictelor la nivel internaional, de ctre anumite organizaii
internaionale ce prezint cel mai mare grad de relevan pentru
subiectele analizate i pentru contextul avut n vedere, respectiv
UE, NATO i OMC precum i o analiz a impactului pe care l
au aciunile sau inaciunea acestor entiti.
Istoria umanitii este alctuit dintr-un ir lung de crize,
conflicte i rzboaie. De regul, prin infiinarea de organizaii
internaionale i regionale, societatea a ncercat prevenirea
conflictelor i rezolvarea disputelor prin intermediul unui sistem
instituionalizat menit s asigure un climat de securitate i
stabilitate. Dup cum se poate observa n capitolele lucrrii,
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globalizarerea aduce cu ea, pe lng beneficii i o serie de


neajunsuri, riscuri ce necesit adoptarea de mecanisme i
proceduri eficiente pentru prevenirea i managementul crizelor
sau a conflictelor.
Riscurile apariiei unei confruntri militare tradiionale pe
continentul european s-au diminuat semnificativ. Totui se menin
anumite fenomene de instabilitate, crize la nivel subregional i
tendine de fragmentare, marginalizare sau izolare a unor state.
De asemenea, ri din Europa Central, de Est i de Sud-Est se
confrunt cu dificulti economice, sociale i politice asociate
actualei crize economice, procesului de tranziie spre societatea
bazat pe principiile democraiei i ale economiei de pia, ce pot
amenina securitatea statelor din regiune.
Fragilitatea mediului de securitate din regiunea Europei de
Sud-Est este determinat mai ales de factori interni, care in de
slaba guvernare a noilor entiti statale aprute la frontiera sudic
a UE, caracterizat prin: incapacitatea instituiilor statului de a
asigura respectarea legii, instabilitatea economic i ponderea
alarmant

economiei

subterane,

corupia,

distribuirea

inechitabil a resurselor n cadrul societii, nerespectarea


drepturilor omului i minoritilor, meninerea i uneori alimentarea
clivajelor etnice i confesionale. n general degradarea situaiei
economice preced orice situaie n care securitatea devine o
problem a discursului public, aceasta manifestndu-se att ca o
consecin direct a respectivei situaii de criz, ct i ca urmare a
impactului pe care criza l are la nivel social.

De asemenea, zonele n care instabilitatea politico-militar


se cronicizeaz au devenit refugii ideale pentru grupri ale crimei
organizate, mercenari, radicali islamiti. Avnd ca baz aceste
areale, gruprile sau persoanele respective pot lansa operaiuni
criminale i teroriste, cu potenial de risc regional.
Lucrarea abordeaz patru mari ameninri la adresa
securitii n regiunea Europei de S-E: conflictele etnice din zona
Balcanilor, terorismul, criza energetic i criza economic.

Conflicte n Balcani

Trecutul istoric frmntat a creat o conjunctur specific, a


cumulat ntr-o arie relativ restrns, din punct de vedere geografic,
popoare foarte diferite din perspectiv cultural i cu niveluri de
dezvoltare economic inegale. Colapsul regimurilor totalitare din
Europa Central i de Est a dus la reiterarea diferenelor culturale
i religioase care, pn la acel moment, supravieuiser ntr-o
form latent.
Rzboaiele deschise, dincolo de amploarea pe care au
cunoscut-o, au agravat situaia economic, iniial stabil a fostei
Iugoslavii, aruncnd rile din zon, cu excepia Sloveniei i
Croaiei, pe ultimele locuri n Europa la principalii indicatori
macroeconomici. n ciuda faptului c s-au nregistrat o serie de
succese

soluionarea

crizelor

din

Albania,

Bosnia

Heregovina sau Kosovo, doar intervenia militar, de ultim


instan, a pus capt confruntrilor armate.
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Principalii factori interni care au capacitatea de a agrava


conflictele etnice din aceast regiune sunt: stagnarea economic,
srcia,

distribuia

inegal

resurselor,

guvernarea

nedemocratic, discriminarea, ngrdirea drepturilor minoritilor,


fluxurile de refugiai, disensiunile de natur etnic, intolerana
cultural i religioas, rspndirea armelor de distrugere n mas
precum i a armelor mici.
Anii de rzboi, veniturile sczute i erodarea instituiilor
publice au favorizat dezvoltarea infracionalitii n statele din
Balcanii de Vest, reelele de crim organizat din aceast regiune
devenind puternice, extrem de violente, facndu-i tot mai mult
simit prezena la nivel internaional. O alt problem o reprezint
migraia ilegal, gruprile infracionale locale folosind statele din
aceast regiune ca rut de tranzit pentru introducerea de
imigrani, provenind din Asia i orientul Mijlociu, n UE.

Terorismul

Terorismul constituie unul dintre cele mai periculoase


fenomene, fiind ncurajat de curentele fundamentaliste care se
sprijin pe starea de frustrare i srcire extrem. Astfel, srcia
i statele euate nu reprezint o ameninare direct la adresa lumii
occidentale, dar pot constitui un pericol n msura n care
terorismul i armele de distrugere n mas gsesc n aceste
teritorii un spaiu fertil pentru a se dezvolta.
Terorismul gsete un mediu propice pentru dezvoltare n
zonele afectate de conflicte regionale i n statele ce nu i-au
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dezvoltat capacitatea i instrumentele de meninere a legii i


ordinii. Srcia poate contribui n mod semnificativ la radicalizarea
acestui fenomen ca urmare a faptului c multe persoane i pierd
sperana ntr-un viitor mai bun i ncrederea n abilitatea instituiilor
statului de a identifica soluii de ieire din criz, organizaiile
teroriste exploatnd aceste nemulimiri dau o justificare religioas
aciunilor lor.
n cadrul spaiului UE, ameninrile teroriste semnificative
sunt generate nu numai de organizaiile deja cunoscute ci i de un
numr crescnd de actori ce acioneaz pe cont propriu (teroriti
fr afiliere ce acioneaz dup propriile planuri) i grupuri mici.
Aceast dezvoltare este facilitat de existena Internetului ce
implic unele costuri minime i compenseaz pentru lipsa
fondurilor necesare operaiunilor directe.

Criza energetic

Alturi de epuizarea resurselor energetice n condiiile unei


creteri a consumului de energie la nivel mondial, Europa se
confrunt i cu alte aspecte ale crizei energetice. Astfel, la nivel
mondial, Rusia dispune de cele mai semnificative rezerve de gaze
naturale, locul secund la producia de crbune i locul opt n ceea
ce privete rezervele de petrol, fiind, n acelai timp i cel mai
mare exportator de gaze naturale i al doilea exportator de petrol.
De asemenea, din punctul de vedere al transportului resurselor
energetice, Gazprom deine toat infrastructura de transport a
gazului natural n Federaia Rus, fiind i singura ntreprindere
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ruseasc autorizat s vnd gaze naturale ruseti n afara


granielor Rusiei.
nc de la nceputul anilor `90, negocierile energetice cu
Rusia au fost afectate de ameninarea tierilor strategice de
energie. Chiar dac aceste practici nu erau ndreptate direct ctre
statele Uniunii Europene ce cumprau gaze naturale i petrol,
nemulumirile partenerilor europeni privesc folosirea de ctre
Rusia a energiei ca instrument de presiune extern i lipsa de
transparen, livrrile de energie fiind percepute ca nesigure.
De asemenea, dup rzboiul declanat mpotriva Irakului,
Orientul Mijlociu a devenit un furnizor instabil pentru statele
europene ca urmare a faptului c nu a mai avut capacitatea s
onoreze cererea ca nainte. n aceast situaie, statele europene
au fost nevoite s se ntoarc spre Federaia Rus, consolidnd
dependena fa de resursele energetice ale acesteia.
Un alt aspect al problemei energetice n Europa se refer la
faptul c exist state care depind complet sau aproape complet de
importuile de gaz rusesc. n aceast categorie se afl unele state
membre UE din estul Europei (Slovacia, Lituania, Finlanda,
Bulgaria, Letonia, Estonia), precum i state ce doresc s devin
state membre UE ( Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia).

Criza economic mondial


Cnd vorbim de criza economic mondial, avem n vedere
rezultatul unui proces, dincolo de dimensiunile geografice ale
acestuia, astfel, criza s-a extins din SUA n ntreaga lume, cu o
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vitez fr precedent, de la un sector de activitate, respectiv cel


financiar-bancar, la toate sectoarele economiei.
Potrivit datelor publicate de Comisia European, criza a
afectat toate statele membre UE i, cu excepia Poloniei i
Slovaciei, nicio ar nereuind s depeasc recesiunea mai
devreme de un an. Cu toate c la mijlocul anului 2009 majoritatea
rilor ncepuser revenirea economic, unele state membre UE
precum Grecia, Irlanda sau Romnia se aflau n plin recesiune
chiar i n 2011, dup trei ani consecutivi de scdere a produciei
i veniturilor. Niciun stat membru nu a fost imun la ocurile ce au
zguduit economia UE ns unele s-au dovedit a fi mai rezistente.
Se poate afirma c acele ri care au contribuit masiv la creterea
PIB al Uniunii Europene n perioada de prosperitate, respectiv
Germania, Marea Britanie, Polonia i Frana sunt ateptate s
rmn, i n continuare, contributori principali, n timp ce Italia i
Spania sunt ateptate s ofere contribuii negative n 2012.
Dup cum se putea anticipa, piaa locurilor de munc a fost
afectat considerabil de actuala criz economic iar acum, cu pai
mici, se redreseaz. omajul preocup UE, chiar dac potrivit
statisticilor oficiale exist diferene semnificative, din punctul de
vedere al ratei omajului, ntre statele membre, de la 4,1% n
Austria, pn la 23,2% n Spania, Romnia avnd rata omajului
de 7,5% la finalul anului 2011.
Criza a scos la iveal legturile strnse i problemele dintre
economiile naionale, n special n zona Euro, n general cele 27
de economii ale Uniunii Europene au un grad ridicat de
interdependen. Reformele sau lipsa acestora, ntr-o ar
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afecteaz toate domeniile de activitate i mai mult, criza i


numeroase limitri ale cheltuielilor publice au generat numeroase
dificulti pentru statele membre UE n a furniza suficiente fonduri
pentru infrastructura de baz necesar n domenii precum
transporturile sau cel energetic, nu numai pentru dezvoltarea
propriilor economii ci i n ceea ce privete participarea pe piaa
unic european.
n ceea ce privete impactul crizei economice asupra
statelor emergente, cu economii slab dezvoltate, cu structuri
mcinate de conflicte militare sau civile, i aceste ri particip la
globalizare, inclusiv prin intermediul circuitelor economice i
schimburilor comerciale, fiind la rndul lor afectate de actuala
criz economic. ns, din punctul de vedere al avantajelor
globalizrii, acestea au fost beneficiare n mai mic msur, fiind
asociate de ctre investitori cu instabilitatea politic, social,
economic. n aceste condiii, aceste state sunt afectate n mai
mare msur de efectele crizei economice, iar relansarea
economiilor acestora depinde mai mult de investiiile rilor
dezvoltate, pe lng propriile programe de redresare economic.
n general, crizele bancare, financiare i economice, prin
implicaiile lor asupra mediului economic, conduc n mod nemijlocit
la alterarea condiiilor sociale de via ale populaiei prin: scderea
salariilor, pierderea locurilor de munc, reducerea nivelului de trai,
nencrederea n perspectivele pe care le-ar putea oferi viitorul
apropiat, permanentizarea i acutizarea greutilor de ordin
material, mbolnviri, creterea numrului de sinucideri, alterarea
relaiilor interumane, proteste sociale, etc.
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Pe lng multitudinea de efecte negative, criza economic


are i unele consecine pozitive, care dac vor fi valorificate i
perpetuate ar putea contribui, pe termen mediu i lung, la
asigurarea stabilitii economice prin aezarea economiei pe baze
noi, reale i funcionale. Printre aceste efecte pozitive se numr
adoptarea, att de ctre populaie ct i de ctre agenii economici
a unui comportament cumptat n ceea ce privete consumul de
resurse, precum i scderea general a preurilor, cu precdere a
celor ce in de domeniul imobiliar, care nu se justificau din punctul
de vedere economic, ci doar speculativ. De asemenea, actuala
criza a dat un impuls semnificativ adoptrii i aplicrii unor msuri
de restructurare, ce au fost amnate sau evitate pn la acel
moment, n diferite domenii de activitate care i dovediser n
timp nefuncionalitatea.
La nivel naional, al instituiilor statului, managementul situaiilor
de criz este reprezentat de ansamblul msurilor i aciunilor
stabilite de autoritile cu competene n domeniile cheie pentru
soluionarea acestora (guvern, ministere, parlament, alte autoriti
i instituii publice centrale i locale) n vederea asigurrii
securitii naionale i a restabilirii strii de normalitate social,
economic, politic, militar, etc. La nivel internaional, entitile
implicate n managementul crizelor sunt, n general, organizaiile
i instituiile internaionale dar i guvernele naionale, acestea din
urm acionnd fie n nume propriu, fie n baza calitii lor de
membri ai unor instituii i organizaii internaionale sau regionale.
Crizele i conflictele nu se rezolv de la sine, diminuarea lor
n intensitate sau prevenirea acestora nu se poate realiza dect
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prin aciunea concertat a instituiilor abilitate din diferite domenii


de activitate, de la nivel naional, regional sau internaional,
existente anterior sau create special n vederea soluionrii
crizelor i conflictelor. Experienele anterioare ale unor crize i
conflicte

au

determinat

comunitatea

uman

neleag

necesitatea unirii i coordonrii eforturilor n vederea aplanrii


strilor

conflictuale,

canalizndu-i

eforturile

identificrii

strategiilor, metodelor i instituiilor care s poat asigura


stingerea sau descurajarea acestor fenomene. De asemenea,
numai aciunea concertat de ncetare a crizelor i conflictelor nu
mai este suficient pentru asigurarea unui mediu stabil, favorabil
dezvoltrii durabile, fiind necesare i activiti de prevenire a
acestora.
Conceptele de prevenire i de management al crizelor i
conflictelor s-au dezvoltat foarte mult de-a lungul timpului, n
vederea evitrii consturilor materiale i umane foarte ridicate
implicate de soluionarea crizele i conflictelor n desfurare. n
aceste condiii, att guvernele naionale ct i organizaiile
internaionale i regionale urmresc dezvoltarea, optimizarea i
implementarea strategiilor de evitare sau de reducere a costurilor
crizelor i conflictelor.

Rolul UE n managementul crizelor i conflictelor


Uniunea European trece printr-un profund proces de
reform intern, concomitent cu derularea procedurilor pentru
primirea de noi membri. Chiar dac la origine construcia
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european a vizat exclusiv sfera economic, s-a dezvoltat ulterior


n aproape toate domeniile de activitate, inclusiv n domeniul
securitii, viaa cetenilor europeni fiind afectat n mod direct de
deciziile luate n cadrul instituiilor UE.
nc de la crearea sa, UE s-a angajat n prevenirea
conflictelor, dealtfel Unuinea, n sine, reprezint un proiect
conceput n vederea asigurrii pcii i prosperitii. La nivelul UE,
se face o delimitare ntre gestionarea crizelor i rezolvarea
conflictelor. n accepiunea UE, gestionarea crizelor reprezint
setul de aciuni ntreprinse n vederea prevenirii escaladrii crizei
pe vertical, prin intensificarea violenelor, i pe orizontal, prin
extinderea fenomenului din punct de vedere teritorial. Rezolvarea
conflictelor presupune o serie de aciuni, ntreprinse pe termen
scurt, pentru a stopa un conflict violent.
Cauzele ce stau la baza declanrii unui conflict sau a unei
crize sunt, dup cum am mai precizat, foarte variate i complexe,
printr-o analiz a cauzelor originare ale acestora putndu-se
identifica semnele timpurii ale unuor asemenea fenomene. n
acest scop, UE a creat un sistem de avertizare timpurie prin
intermediul cruia sunt localizate regiunile unde apar tensiuni. Prin
identificarea cauzelor originare care stau la baza acestora, se
urmrete soluionarea respectivelor cauze pentru a se evita
escaladarea conflictului sau a crizei. Acest instrument la dispoziia
UE este reprezentat de reeaua de delegaii ale Comisiei
Europene i de centrele de monitorizare ale Uniunii din ntreaga
lume.
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n cadrul modelului european de management al crizelor i


conflictelor ce in de securitatea i integritatea statelor, pot fi
identificate patru faze:
1) edificarea pcii preconflict sau postconflict, n vederea
prevenirii conflictelor i crizelor prin msuri structurale pe termen
lung;
2) impunerea pcii prin msuri coercitive, msur aplicat
n situaii precum agresiunile din afara granielor, meninerea pcii
sau intervenia n vederea protejrii drepturilor omului;
3)

meninerea

pcii

prin

diplomaia

preventiv

sau

desfurarea preventiv de fore;


4) restabilirea pcii prin msuri noncoercitive, de cele mai
multe ori prin mijloace diplomatice.
n accepiunea UE prevenirea conflictului reprezint esena
aciunii sale externe, iar pentru realizarea acestui obiectiv Uniunea
utilizeaz att asistena pentru dezvoltare i reconstrucia pe
termen lung, ct i mijloacele de gestionare a crizelor militare i
civile pe termen scurt n vederea asigurrii managementului
conflictelor i a situaiilor preconflictuale i postconflictuale.
n funcie de problemele ce trebuie gestioante, UE poate
folosi ajutorul de dezvoltare cu scopul combaterii srciei i a
bolilor, sau folosete acordurile sale comerciale pentru a asigura
un acces mai bun pe pieele Uniunii, cu scopul impulsionrii
statelor cu probleme economice i sprijinirii rilor n curs de
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dezvoltare. De asemenea, UE poate acorda ajutor tehnic i


finaciar n domeni precum guvernarea, sistemul de securitate,
justiia, dezvoltarea rural, transporturile, energia, sntatea, etc.
Unuinea poate colabora cu alte organizaii internaionale i cu
autoritile naionale n vederea combaterii traficului de droguri,
arme sau persoane, contrabanda cu diverse bunuri. Nu n ultimul
rnd trebuie animtit faptul c UE este foarte activ n domeniul
diplomaiei preventive i mediere.
n cazul n care se confrunt cu un conflict deschis sau cu
situaii postconflictuale, UE urmrete gestionarea crizelor militare
i civile, pecum i stabilizarea postconflictual i asistena pentru
dezvoltare i reconstrucie pe termen lung. n vederea atingerii
acestor obiective, Unuinea face apel la influena sa politic n
vederea finalizrii conflictului, aplic termenii de ncetare a focului,
de instaurare i meninere a pcii, acord ajutor umanitar i de
urgen pentru reconstrucia imediat i pe termen lung. De
asemenea, trimite experi pentru supravegherea alegerilor,
derulnd, n acelaii timp, proiecte de educare a alegtorilor,
sprijin consolidarea sistemului juridic n sensul dezvoltrii statului
de drept, promovnd drepturile omului, contribuie la mbuntirea
serviciilor de poliie, etc.
n ceea ce privete activitatea Uniunii Europene n Balcanii
de Vest, n zonele cu conflicte etnice, obiectivul fundamental al
acesteia este extinderea zonei de pace, stabilitate i securitate
realizate de membrii Uniunii. nvederea atingerii acestui obiectiv,
ultimii cincisprezece ani, UE a furnizat n zon un important ajutor
19

de ordin financiar, prin intermediul programelor specifice, dar i de


ordin militar.
UE a

parcurs un

proces de

nvare

Balcani.

Incapacitatea de a aciona eficient n demersurile de impunere a


pcii

regiunile

aflate

conflict,

evideniat

latura

nesatisfctoare a naturii consensuale i civile a UE. Eecul


operaiunii Fora Aliat de a obine capitularea rapid a srbilor a
contribuit la exacerbarea responsabilitii UE pentru crimele ce au
avut loc n aceast regiune i la redeschiderea discuiilor n
legtur cu ce ar trebui s fac Uniunea pentru a-i asigura
credibilitatea n calitate de actor internaional. Conflictul din
Kosovo a oferit o oportunitate pentru UE n ceea ce privete
crearea unei Politici Europene de Securitate i Aprare operative.
Dac n plan instituional, criza kosovar a deschis dezbaterea
privind instituirea PESA prin Tratatul de la Nisa, n ceea ce
privete politica regional, UE a fost nevoit s-i asume calitatea
de finanator al procesului de reconstrucie a Europei de Sud-Est
prin Pactul de Stabilitate. Dup Acordul de la Dayton, UE a
adoptat o tendin consecvent i eficient n abordarea
stabilizrii politice i redresrii economice n aceast regiune.
Avantajul avut de UE n regiunea Balcanilor este politica de
condiionare, foarte eficient n cadrul rilor ce urmresc o
viitoare aderare unde att elita politic, ct i populaia sunt
dispuse s depun eforturi pentru atingerea acestui obiectiv pe
care muli l consider o soluie universal a problemelor.
Procesele pozitive din Europa de Sud-Est se datoreaz n mare
20

parte perspectivei de integrare european a statelor afectate de


conflict, acest fapt a avut un efect stabilizator asupra evoluiilor
regionale.
Din perspectiva eforturilor UE de combatere a terorismului,
se desprinde i ideea consolidrii relaiei transatlantice, cu
precdere dup evenimetele din 11 septembrie 2001. Astfel,
statele membre UE au contribuit la eradicarea acestui fenomen
printr-o serie de instrumente, precum: dezmembrarea reelelor
teroriste din Europa, desfurarea de aciuni de prevenire a unor
acte teroriste, supravegherea financiar i tierea finanrilor
respectivelor grupri, consolidarea sistemului de partajare a
informaiilor ntre serviciile secrete i poliie, cooperarea n
domeniul informaiilor.
La nivelul UE sunt adoptate, coordonate i monitorizate i
alte strategii de asigurare a managementului, n diferite domenii
de activitate, precum cel economic, bancar, energetic etc.,
sectoare ce sunt susceptibile de a fi afectate de crize sau de
conflicte prin care se urmrete asigurarea prevenirii, gestionrii i
rezolvrii respectivelor fenomene.
n ceea ce privete politica UE de rspuns la actuala criz
economico-financiar,

principalele

direcii

de

aciune

sunt:

asigurarea unui rspuns global la criza financiar, aciuni


coordonate la nivel comunitar, msuri de limitare a extinderii
crizei, ntrirea reglementrii i supravegherii n domeniul bancar,
msuri pentru sprijinirea ntreprinderilor, asigurarea la nivel
naional a stabilitii bugetare, a accelerrii reformelor i
21

investiiilor, finanare n domeniul resurselor umane, proteciei


sociale, incluziunii, crearea unui sector de cercetare apt s susin
economia european.
Din perspectiv energetic, alturi de msurile adoptate n
sensul diversificrii rutelor energetice, furnizorilor i a resurselor
energetice regenerabile, n termeni economici, potrivit datelor
publicate de Comisia European, la nivelul anului 2010, Uniunea
European este principalul partener comercial al Federaiei Ruse,
att n ceea ce privete importurile ct i exporturile. Aceast
situaie indic o clar dependen a Rusiei de pia european.
La crearea sa n 1949 Organizaia Tratatului Atlanticului de
Nord (NATO) percepea Uniunea Sovietic drept principalul
adversar al libertii i independenei Europei Occidentale. n
prezent, dup aproape 20 de ani de la dispariia URSS, Aliana i
continu existena, ns a fost nevoie s se supun unor
importante transformri, modificri de concept, s dezvolte chiar o
relaie strategic cu Federaia Rus.
Obiectivul de baz i permanent al NATO este aprarea
libertii i securitii tuturor membrilor si, prin mijloace politice i
militare, precum i asigurarea pcii i stabilitii, n condiiile
respectrii principiilor Cartei Organizaiilor Unite. Funcionarea
organizaiei are ca fundament angajamentul comun i cooperarea
mutual ntre statele membre suverane cu scopul de a asigura
indivizibilitii securitii pentru toi partenerii, sub forma aprrii
colective. Acest lucru se concretizeaz ntr-o completare a

22

eforturilor naionale n confruntarea cu provocrile la adresa


securitii.
Statele membre au realizat faptul c o criz regional
aprut n afara propriilor granie poate reprezenta o posibil
ameninare la adresa intereselor i securitii lor, din acest motiv
NATO se implic de cte ori apreciaz ca posibil i necesar
aciunea sa pentru a preveni crizele, a gestiona i aplana crizele i
conflictele deja existente, a stabiliza situaiile post-conflict i n
vederea susinerii reconstruciei zonelor afectate.
Din punctul de vedere al NATO, managementul crizelor
nglobeaz o serie de aciuni coordonate sau iniiate n vederea
evitrii unei crize, prevenirii escaladrii ntr-un conflict armat i
ncetrii ostilitilor, dac acestea exist. Acest set de aciuni este
alctuit din: strngerea i evaluarea informaiilor, analizarea
situaiei concrete ce trebuie soluionat, stabilirea obiectivelor de
urmat i a opiunilor de aciune, implementarea uneia dintre
opiuni precum i analiza reaciilor n urma aciunilor ntreprinse. n
ceea

ce

privete

situaiile

ce

pot

reprezenta

obiectul

managementului, orice ameninare resimit de oricare stat


membru poate s reprezinte o problema ce necesit un rspuns
din partea celorlalte state membre i va fi luat n considerare de
Alian.
n cadrul procesului de management al crizelor, Aliana
pune un accent deosebit pe prevenirea conflictelor prin activiti
precum

iniiativele

diplomatice,

participarea

la

negocieri,

consultri, realizarea de inspecii sau monitorizri, desfurarea


preventiv a forelor civile sau militare. Prin aceste operaiuni se
23

urmrete evitarea escaladrii disputelor sau tensiunilor n


conflicte armate.
n cadrul procesului de management al crizelor, NATO a
identificat cinci etape:
1) culegerea

informaiilor,

observarea

indicatorilor i

avertizarea unei crize poteniale sau actuale;


2) evaluarea situaiei de criz i stabilirea implicaiilor
pentru securitatea NATO i implicit a membrilor si;
3) identificarea opiunilor de rspuns, recomandate pentru a
sprijini procesul decizional din cadrul Consiliului Nord-Atlantic sau
Comitetului pentru Planificarea Aprrii;
4) planificarea n detaliu i execuia deciziilor i directivelor
Consiliului Nord-Atlantic sau ale Comitetului pentru Planificarea
Aprrii;
5) revenirea la stabilitate.
Dup un nceput ovitor n prima parte a anilor 1990,
NATO a devenit treptat instituia nsrcinat cu responsabilitatea
principal pentru conducerea operaiunilor de meninere a pcii n
cazul conflictelor etnice din Europa. Abordarea NATO a conflictele
etnice s-a realizat pe dou niveluri: iniierea de mecanisme cu
scopul de a preveni asemenea conflicte i adaptarea misiunilor
militare pentru a putea reaciona prompt atunci cnd msurile de
prevenire eueaz.
Parteneriatul pentru Pace (PfP), principalul program de
cooperare dintre statele din centrul i estul Europei i NATO, i-a
adus, de-a lungul timpului, un aport semnificativ la stabilizarea
24

zonelor de conflict din spaiul Europei Centrale i de Sud-Est, prin


crearea unui climat de nelegere, ncredere i cooperare ntre
aliai, pe de-o parte, i rile partenere, de cealalt parte, precum
i la promovarea reformei militare n aceste din urm state.
Analiznd modul n care NATO a asigurat managementul
conflictelor entice din Balcani, se remarc faptul c Aliana posed
un numr de avantaje comparativ cu alte organizaii internaionale
care i asigur o mai mare credibilitate pe scena internaional.
Aceast credibilitate reiese din capacitatea, deja dovedit, a
NATO de a aciona, coordona i coopera cu terii. Unul dintre
factorii ce d for Alianei este acela c NATO garanteaz
implicarea SUA n securitatea Europei. Influena diplomatic i
fora militar a SUA au asigurat faptul ca NATO s fie luat n
serios, demonstrnd aciona mai eficient dect sub egida
organizaiilor internaionale.
De la sfritul rzboiului rece, abilitatea NATO de a
coopera cu alte organizaii internaionale a progresat n mod
constant, aceasta fiind un rezultat direct al nevoii de a oferi un
management

eficient

al

conflictelor

etnice

Europa.

Aranjamentele Berlin Plus dintre UE i NATO, aprute datorit


slab dezvoltatei laturi militare a UE, au instituionalizat i
consolidat relaiile UE-NATO, limitnd rivalitatea i competiia
instituional. Acest aspect este semnificativ n dezvoltarea rolului
militar al UE dar i pentru a degreva NATO de o parte din
responsabilitatea asigurrii managementului securitii europene.
Politica uilor deschise promovat n cadrul NATO i
evoluiile nregistrate de statele din regiune n urma procesului de
25

aderare la UE ntresc ateptrile legate de pacificarea zonei


Balcanilor. Experienele extinderilor anterioare au scos n eviden
faptul c derularea simultan a celor dou procese (aderarea la
UE i integrarea n NATO) a contribuit n mod semnificativ la
preluarea valorilor occidentale n statele candidate, la contribuia
acestor state la eforturile de instaurare i dezvoltare a unui mediu
regional i internaional care s asigure securitatea regional i
global.

Organizaia Mondial a Comerului


OMC i-a nceput activitatea la 1 ianuarie 1995 dar bazele
sistemului su de funcionare exista de aproximativ 50 de ani, sub
forma GATT General Agreement on Tarrifs and Trade. Trebuie
remarcat faptul c, n cei aproape 50 de ani de funcionare GATT
i-a demonstrat flexibilitatea, prin adaptarea permanent la
provocrile economice, sociale i politice ale fiecrei etape din
evoluia contextului global, regional i naional al actorilor implicai.
Odat cu nceperea activitii OMC, economia mondial
intr ntr-o nou etap de evoluie, bazat pe fluxuri comerciale
libere, supuse regulilor liberei concurene, unor principii i reguli
noi sau mbuntile, menite s creeze premisele pentru un grad
ridicat de transparen, stabilitate i predictibilitate n ceea ce
privete relaiile economice la nivel planetar.
Acordurile OMC cuprind reglemetri referitoare la bunuri,
servicii i drepturile de proprietate intelectual, enumernd clar
principiile liberalizrii i excepiile permise i includ angajamentele
26

individuale ale membrilor privind reducerea tariferlor vamale i a


altor bariere comerciale i de a deschide i menine deschise
pieele serviciilor. De asemenea, aceste acorduri stabilesc
procedurile necesare rezolvrii disputelor i impun guvernelor ca
politicile comerciale adoptate s fie transparente, notificnd OMC
n privina legilor n vigoare, msurilor adoptate, prin rapoarte
regulate privind politicile comerciale ale rii naintate ctre
Secretariat. Aceste reguli sunt acorduri negociate de guverne.
Cel mai puin dezvoltate ri primesc un grad sporit de
atenie din partea OMC, toate acordurile recunoscnd faptul c
acestea trebuie s beneficieze de cel mai sporit grad de
flexibilitate, iar membrii mai avansai trebuie s depun eforturi
pentru a cobor nivelul barierelor de import n ceea ce privete
exporturile rilor mai puin dezvoltate.
Prin nfiinarea OMC i activitatea desfurat de aceasta
se sprijin creterea economic la nivel global. Creterea
economic a unui stat nu mai poate fi privit izolat de situaia
economic de la nivel regional i global n condiiile adncirii
interdependenelor, iar soluiile adoptate la nivel naional pentru
depirea diferitelor probleme de ordin economic, social, etc.
trebuie s fie susinute i de msuri asumate la nivel global pentru
a asigura acestora un grad crescut de eficien.

Romnia n actualul context de securitate


Romnia nu este i nu se va afla n viitorul apropiat n faa
vreunei ameninri majore la adresa securitii sale naionale, de
27

tip militar clasic. n perioada actual riscurile la adresa securitii


Romniei sunt preponderent de natura nemilitar i mai ales
intern, manifestndu-se n special n domeniile economic,
financiar i social. n condiiile integrrii euro-atlantice i extinderii
proceselor de tip integrativ, ca o consecin a globalizrii,
asigurarea securitii politice, economice sau sociale, nu mai
este un atribut exclusiv al statului, n atingerea acestui obiectiv
implicndu-se i ali actori naionali, regionali sau internaionali.
Adiional msurilor, destinate depirii actualelor provocri
la adresa securitii, iniiate, susinute i implemetate la nivelul
regiunii Europei de Sud-Est de ctre organizaiile internaionale
din care Romnia face parte, n cadrul liucrrii au fost identificate
i analizate o serie de msuri ce ar avea potenialul de a stimula
relansarea economic n Romnia n condiiile actualului context
de securitate. n aceste sens, un aspect de o importan vital
pentru redresarea economic a Romniei este echilibrarea
balanei comerciale i a balanei de cont curent cu scopul
asigurrii

lichiditilor

necesare

susinerii

consumului

investiiilor. Atenuarea i prevenirea dezechilibrelor de cont curent


necesit msuri de regularizare i reglementare a circulaiei
transfrontaliere de capital cu scopul echilibrrii balanei de pli.
Romnia, ca ar predominant importatoare de bunuri trebuie si dezvolte, n aceeai msur i latura productoare sau
importatoare de capital, pentru a avea fondurile necesare achitrii
importurilor, fr s fie nevoie s creasc gradul de ndatorare.

28

Printre msurile ce pot fi adoptate pentru ieirea din acest


dezechilibru major se numr: deprecierea controlat a monedei
naionale, descurajarea consumului prin stimularea realizrii de
economii ca urmare a creterii dobnzilor la depozite, reducerea
deficitului bugetar. De asemenea, n condiiile restrngerilor
determinate de criza economic, dar i a creterii exigenelor i
concurenei pe pieele internaionale, au fost identificate unele
metode i tehnici de management legate de promovarea ofertei
naionale la export, atragerea investiiilor strine, dezvoltarea
spiritului antreprenorial, dezvoltarea i promovarea unor sectoare
cheie ale economiei romneti, precum i de adaptarea sistemului
educaional la realitile vieii economice.
Un alt factor important, n vederea asigurarii stabilitii,
economice este reprezentat de asigurarea stabilitii raporturilor
juridice, prin reducerea gradului de incertitudine a perspectivelor
pe termen scurt, mediu i lung. n aceste context, trebuie
subliniat necesitatea garantrii previzibilitii att a reglemtrilor
legale, ct i a interpretrilor date cadrului legal n vigoare, astfel
nct orice persoan, n momentul n care iniiaz o anumit
conduit, s poat prevedea consecinele de ordin juridic ale
acesteia.
Creterea economic este influenat de o serie de
variabile precum demografia, mediul politic, climatul de securitate,
energia, progresul tehnologic etc. i se exprim prin produsul
naional brut, productivitate, comer, investiii, fluxuri financiare.
Dup cum am artat n cuprinsul lucrrii, deinerea i asumarea
29

deplin de ctre un stat, n cadrul relaiilor sale comerciale


externe, a calitii de membru OMC sau UE pot contribui, n mod
substanial, la obinerea stabilitii i chiar a creterii economice.
Acest lucru este posibil, n special, n urma implementrii de ctre
respectivul stat a regulilor sistemului comercial multilateral, att n
planul legislativ ct i n planul organizatoric i funcional.

Lista lucrrilor publicate


Ca parte a activitii de cercetare, am elaborat, n calitate
de autor i co-autor, o serie de lucrri publicate n reviste de
profil, dup cum urmeaz:
- The globalization of Social Issues and the Challanges of
Security Policies, Dr. Anca Petrescu, Nicolae Sorinel Rotaru,
Valahian Journal of Economic Studies, Volume 1 (15), Issue
4/2010, Trgovite 2010, ISSN 2067-9440, B+;
- Managementul crizelor i conflictelor n Europa de S-E
Factor determinant al stabilitii economice, Nicolae Sorinel
Rotaru, Universitatea Valahia din Trgovite Cercetri
Doctorale, Volumul II, Nr. 2, 2010, Valahia University Press, ISSN
2067-371X, B+;
Se afl n curs de publicare articolul Information and
Communication Technology Essential Vector for a Durable
Development, Prof. dr. Ion Prgaru, Nicolae Sorinel Rotaru n
Valahian Journal of Economic Studies, An International Review of
30

Theories and Applied Studies in Performance Management, nr.


1/2012, ISSN 2067-9440, B+.

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49

CURRICULUM VITAE
Nume / Prenume

Nicolae Sorinel ROTARU

Experiena profesional
Perioada
Funcia sau postul ocupat
Numele i adresa angajatorului
Tipul activitii sau sectorul de activitate
Perioada
Funcia sau postul ocupat
Numele i adresa angajatorului
Tipul activitii sau sectorul de activitate
Perioada

septembrie 2010 - prezent


Director adjunct
Oficiul Registrului Naional al Informaiilor Secrete de Stat - ORNISS
Management n domeniul proteciei informaiilor clasificate
aprilie 2004 august 2010
ef Serviciu
ORNISS
Reglementare n domeniul proteciei informaiilor naionale clasificate
septembrie 2003 martie 2004

Funcia sau postul ocupat

Referent

Numele i adresa angajatorului

ORNISS

Tipul activitii sau sectorul de activitate

Reglementare n domeniul proteciei informaiilor naionale clasificate

Educaie i formare
Perioada

2009 - prezent

Calificarea / diploma obinut

Doctorand

Domenii principale studiate /


competene dobndite

tiine Economice - Management

Numele i tipul instituiei de nvmnt


/ furnizorului de formare
Nivelul de clasificare a formei de
nvmnt / formare
Perioada

Universitatea Valahia Trgovite, IOSUD coala Doctoral de tiine Econom


i Umaniste
Doctorat

2006-2007

Calificarea / diploma obinut

Absolvent studii post-universitare

Domenii principale studiate /


competene dobndite

Managementul informaiilor

Numele i tipul instituiei de nvmnt


/ furnizorului de formare

Universitatea Valahia, Trgovite

50

Nivelul de clasificare a formei de


nvmnt / formare

Perioada

Post-universitar

1999-2002

Calificarea / diploma obinut

Absolvent studii universitare

Domenii principale studiate /


competene dobndite

Finane - contabilitate

Numele i tipul instituiei de nvmnt


/ furnizorului de formare
Nivelul de clasificare a formei de
nvmnt / formare

Universitatea Banatului din Timioara


Superior

Limbi strine cunoscute


Abiliti de ascultare

Abiliti de citire

Interaciune

Exprim

Avansat

Avansat

Avansat

Avan

Mediu

Mediu

Mediu

Me

Engleza

Franceza

51

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION, RESEARCH, YOUTH


AND SPORT
VALAHIA UNIVERSITY OF TRGOVITE
DOCTORAL SCHOOL OF ECONOMIC AND
HUMANIST SCIENCES
Department: MANAGEMENT

CRISES AND CONFLICT


MANAGEMENT IN SOUTH
EASTERN EUROPE A
DETERMINANANT FACTOR FOR
ECONOMIC STABILITY
PhD scientific coordinator:
Prof. univ. dr. Ion PRGARU

PhD Student:
Nicolae
ROTARU

Sorinel

TRGOVITE
2012
52

Table of contents

PhD THESIS TABLE OF CONTENTS......................................................................... 53


Introduction .......................................................................................................... 55
Conflicts in the Balkans ........................................................................................ 58
Terrorism .............................................................................................................. 59
The energy crisis ................................................................................................... 60
World economic crisis .......................................................................................... 61
The European Unions role in crisis and conflict management ............................ 64
NATOs role in crisis and conflict management ................................................... 69
World Trade Organization .................................................................................... 73
Romania and the present security context .......................................................... 75
BIBLIOGRAFIE ........................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
CURRICULUL VITAE ............................................................................................... 78

PhD THESIS TABLE OF CONTENTS


CHAPTER 1. METHODOLOGY, METHODES AND RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS
CHAPTER 2. CRISES AND CONFLICTS IN S-E EUROPE
2.1. Theoretic approach of certain notions
2.2. Threats in the security area of S-E Europe
2.2.1. Conflicts in the Balkans
2.2.1.1. Bosnia and Herzegovina
53

2.2.1.2 Kosovo
2.2.1.3. Macedonia
2.2.1.4. Serbia and Montenegro
2.2.1.5. Consequences and risks
2.2.2. Terrorism
2.2.3. Energy crisis
2.2.4. World economic crisis
2.3. The tendency of crises and conflicts globalization
CHAPTER 3. CRISES AND CONFLICTS MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
3.1. Theoretic approach of crises and conflict management
3.2. EUs role in crises and conflict management
3.2.1. General consideration on EUs capacity of ensuring global security
3.2.3. EUs concept on crisis management
3.2.4. From the Stability Pact for S-E Europe to the Council for Regional
Cooperation
3.3. NATOs role in crises and conflicts management
3.3.1. General considerations regarding NATOs ability to ensure global
security
3.3.2. NATOs concept for crises management
3.3.3 Crises and conflicts management in S-E Europe
3.4. EU-NATO relation
3.5. World Trading Organization
CHAPTER 4. ROMANIA IN THE PRESENT SECURITY CONTEXT
54

CHAPTER 5. PERSONAL CONTRIBUTIONS


CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
ELECTRONIC BIBLIOGRAPHY
LIST OF ABREVIESIONS
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
ANNEX 1 Failed, foiled and carried attacks
ANNEX 2 Financial assistance offered to the EU Balkan states in the preaccession process
ANNEX 3 Main macroindicators for candidate states or in the process of EU
pre-accession
ANNEX 4 Members of the Regional Cooperation Council
ANNEX 5 GATT negotiations
ANNEX 6 WTO reglementations
ANNEX 7 Main previsions for Romania

Introduction
The purpose of the thesis is to continue and deepen the
scientific intercessions regarding themes that were earlier
approached by the author, as well as widening the analysis to
other aspects that have become important in the meantime, such
as the energy and the economic crisis, matters that fill the agenda
55

of international organizations and national governments from


South East Europe and other regions. The thesis proposes a
uniform approach of the major security threats in Europe and the
impact they had, the modality of handling their management, with
the purpose of looming the perspectives of these phenomena and
delineate the actions that might be adopted in order to ensure the
security and stability of South-East Europe.
The thesis aim is to effectuate a general theory regarding
the establishing of crisis and conflicts situation management on an
international level, by certain international organizations the
ones that offer the highest degree of relevance regarding the
approached matters and in the given context: EU, NATO and
WTO as well as an impact analysis that refers to the results that
emerge from the actions or inactions of these entities.
The history of the world is a long line of crises, conflicts and
wars. As a general rule, by establishing international and regional
organizations, society has attempted the prevention of conflicts
and solving disputes with the aid of and institutionalized system
meant to ensure a climate of security and stability. As I am about
to elaborate in the following chapters, globalization has, along with
advantages, it downsides and risks that call for the adoption of
efficient mechanisms and procedures in order to prevent and
manage crises and conflicts.
The risks of a traditional military confrontation on the
European continent have dwindled considerably. Still, one can
discover aspects of instability, crises on a sub-regional level,
certain territorial scission tendencies and marginalization or
56

isolation of certain states. Countries from Central, Eastern and


South-Eastern Europe are confronted with economic, social and
political difficulties linked to the present economic crisis, the
transition process towards a society that is based on democratic
principles and market economy, difficulties that can pose a threat
to the security of states.
The frailty of the security environment in South-Eastern
Europe is determined, mostly, by internal factors belonging to the
weak governance of the newly formed states on the southern EU
border, characterized by: the incapacity of the state institutions to
ensure the rule of law, the economic instability and the growing
underground

economy,

corruption,

uneven

distribution

of

resources within the state, disregard of human rights and


minorities, maintaining and sometimes fueling the ethnic and
confessional disruptions. Generally speaking, the degradation of
the economic situation precedes any situation in which security
becomes a problem of public speaking, being manifested as a
direct consequence of the respective crisis situation, as well as a
result of the impact that the crisis has on a social level.
Areas that are politically and military unstable have become
heavens for organized crime groups, mercenaries or Islamic
fundamentalists. Having these areas as their basis, the groups or
persons are able to launch criminal or terrorist operations that
would entail potential regional risks.
The present thesis tackles four large threats that SouthEastern Europe faces: ethnic conflicts in the Balkan area,
terrorism, energy crisis and economic crisis.
57

Conflicts in the Balkans


The troubled historical past has created a specific situation,
gathering in a relatively small area, geographically speaking,
individuals with different cultural perspectives and uneven
economic development. The downfall of the totalitarian regimes
throughout Central and Eastern Europe has led to the surging of
cultural and religious differences that, until then, had survived in a
frozen state. Outright wars have aggravated the economic
situation, previously stable during the existence of the Yugoslavian
state, plunging the involved countries, with the exception of
Slovenia and Croatia, in an area of low macroeconomic indicators,
occupying the last places in a European chart. In spite of the fact
that there have been several successful crises solving in Albania,
Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kosovo, only military interventions, as
a last resort, have ended the armed fighting.
The main internal factors that have the capacity to escalate
the ethnic conflicts in this region are: economic depression,
poverty, undemocratic governance, discrimination, not granting
minority rights, refugee flows, ethnic dissensions, cultural and
religious intolerance, the spreading of weapons of mass
destructions and small firearms.
The period of war, low incomes and the degradation of
public institutions have favored crime development in the West
Balkans with organized crime networks becoming stronger and
more violent, making their presence felt on an international level.
One other problem is represented by illegal migration, the local
58

crime gangs are using this region as a transit route in order to


smuggle in immigrants from Asia and Middle East into the
European Union.

Terrorism
Terrorism is numbered among the most dangerous
phenomena, being encouraged by fundamentalists that base
themselves on frustration and extreme poverty. In this context,
poverty and failed states do not represent a direct threat upon the
Western part of the world, but may pose a danger by encouraging
the existence of terrorist cells and the area to develop. Terrorism
may find favorable grounds to flourish in areas where regional
conflicts occur and within states that have yet to develop their
capacity and instruments for imposing law and order. Poverty may
significantly contribute to the radicalization of this phenomenon as
a consequence of the fact that many people lose hope for a better
future and their trust in the state institutions for identifying
solutions for overcoming the crisis, terrorist organizations
exploiting these complaints and offering, in their opinion, a
religious justification to their actions.
Within the EU borders, significant terrorist threats are
generated not only by consecrated organizations but also by a
growing number of actors that act on their own (terrorist without
affiliation that act according to their own plans) and small groups.
This development is facilitated by the Internet, involving only
minimal costs and compensating for the lack of adequate funding
for direct operations.
59

The energy crisis


Along with the depletion of energy resources, combined
with a consumption growth worldwide, Europe encounters a whole
array of aspects pertaining to the energy crisis. On a world scale,
Russia owns the largest natural gas reserves, ranks second in
coal production and eight in oil reserves, being at the same time
the biggest natural gas exporter and second in oil exports. Looking
from the resources transportation perspective, Gazprom own the
entire transport infrastructure in the Russian Federation, also
being the only organization licensed to sell natural gas abroad.
Starting in the 1990` negotiations with Russia regarding
energy have been affected by threats to cut off strategic energy
supplies. Although, these harsh measures were not especially
meant for the EU member states that were purchasing natural gas
and oil, the European disgruntlements target Russias use of the
energy trump as an instrument of external pressure and lack of
transparence. Following the debut of the Iraqi conflict, the Middle
East became an unstable supplier for the European states, being
unable to fill the necessary amounts requested. Given the
situation, the European states were forced to turn to the Russian
Federation, thus heightening their energetic dependence. Another
facet of the energy problem in Europe regards the fact that there
are states that are entirely or almost entirely dependent on
importing the Russian gas supplies. In this category fall EU
member states such as Slovakia, Lithuania, Finland, Bulgaria,

60

Latvia, Estonia and also non EU members Macedonia, Moldova,


Serbia.

World economic crisis


When talking about the economic crisis at a global level,
one must not lose sight of the fact that it has spread with
unprecedented haste, starting from the US banking sector to all
the aspects of the global economy.
According to data published by the European Commission,
the current crisis has affected, in a negative manner, all EU
member states, with the exception of Poland and Slovakia. None
of the members were able to overcome the downfall earlier than a
year. By august 2009, many European countries had begun their
comeback trip to the top of the lists but, unfortunately, some
member state such as Greece, Ireland or Romania were still in full
recession even in 2011, after three consecutive years of decline in
production and incomes. None of the member states were
immune to the blows given by the crisis, nonetheless some proved
to be resilient and are expected to keep to the high standards of
prosperity and to continue on being the main EU funders
Germany, UK, Poland and France while Italy and Spain are
expected to have negative contributions for 2012.
As it was expected, the labor market was severely affected
by the economic crisis but it is on its way towards recovery. One of
the red flags that are presently on the European agenda for fixing
is unemployment. According to official data there are important
61

differences between member states, 4,1 % in Austria and 23,2 %


in Spain, with Romania leveled at 7,5 % at the end of 2011.
The crisis has revealed the close bonds and the issues
between the national economies of EU members, especially in the
Eurozone which shares a high degree of interdependence.
Reforms, or the lack of, adopted in a country, affect all aspects of
the economy generating numerous public spending restrictions
that affect the basic infrastructure of transports or energy, not only
for developing their own economies but also for participating on
the European market. Regarding the impact of the economic crisis
over emerging states, states with underdeveloped economies,
states affected by military or civil strife, one must realize that these
countries as well take part in the grand globalizing process and
are affected, along with the more advanced countries, by the
present economic crisis. On the matter of advantages generated
by globalization, these countries have had small benefits due to
the fact that they have been avoided by investors because of the
political, social and economic unstable situation. Given these
facts, the above mentioned countries are largely affected by the
economic crisis and powering up their economies depends on the
national economic recovery plans along with foreign investments.
Taking a panoramic look on the banking, financial and
economic crises and considering their impact on the economic
environment, these crises doubtlessly lead to a negative altering
of social conditions for the population by: reducing salaries,
unemployment, reducing the standard of living, health problems, a
raise in the number of suicides, street protests etc. Along with the
62

plethora of negative effects, the economic crisis, depending on the


taken approach, may contribute for the medium and long term, in
ensuring the economic stability by placing the economy on new
bases that are real and functional. Among these positive effects,
one might find that the general population and the economic
agents

must

adopt

balanced

behavior

regarding

the

consumption of resources, as well as a general reduction of


prices, especially the prices of the real estate assets that were not
justified

from an economic point of view but only from a

speculative one. The present crisis has offered an important boost


for adopting and applying certain restructuring measures that had
been postponed or avoided until that moment, in various areas of
activity that had previously proved their lack of functionality. On a
national level of state institutions, crises situations management is
represented by a set of measures and actions established by
competent authorities in key areas (government, ministries,
parliament, other authorities and public and central institutions) in
order to ensure national security and the reinstatement of a certain
social, economic, military level of normality On an international
level, the entities involved in crises management are, generally
speaking, the international organizations and institutions but also
national governments, governments that act on their own behalf or
as members of international or regional organizations.
Crises and conflicts do not work themselves out, reducing
their intensity or preventing them can only be achieved by
common action undertaken by certain institutions that are certified
in this area of expertise in order to solve crises and conflicts.
63

Previous experiences concerning crises or conflicts have forced


the international community to comprehend the necessity of
working together and coordinating efforts in order to minimize
conflicting situations, channeling their efforts to identify strategies,
methods and institutions that are able to insure the diminishment
and to deter theses phenomena. Likewise, the sole common
action of stopping the crises and conflicts may prove not to suffice
in order to ensure a stable environment that favors a durable
development.
Concepts that regard the prevention and management of
crises and conflicts have developed overtime; in order to avoid
high costs, both material and human resources, for solving
ongoing crises and conflicts.
Given these factors national governments along with
regional and international organizations are aiming for developing,
optimizing and implementing strategies that will offer the
necessary edge to avoid or at least mitigate the costs generated
by crises and conflicts.

The European Unions role in crisis and conflict


management
The EU is undergoing a profound process of internal reform
in parallel with the procedures necessary for receiving new
members. Even if in the beginning, the EUs purpose was an
economic one, it has developed in all areas, including security due
to the fact that the lives of European citizens are fully affected by
64

the decisions taken within its institutions. On the EU level there is


a demarcation between crises management and solving conflicts.
From the EUs point of view, crises management represents the
set of actions taken in order to prevent a vertical escalation of the
crisis, through intensified violence and on a horizontal level,
through the expansion of area of violence. Solving conflicts
involves a series of actions, taken in the short term in order for the
conflict to cease.
The reasons that lead to a conflict or a crisis vary and are
very complex.

Analyzing these original causes may lead to

identifying the early signs of such phenomena. For this purpose,


the EU has created an early warning system to help identify
regions that spawn tensions. By identifying these original causes
that generate tensions it is intended to solve the respective
reasons in order to avoid the heightening of the crisis or the
conflict.

This

important

instrument,

at

EUs

disposal,

is

represented by the network of European Commission delegations


and by the monitoring centers belonging to the EU that are placed
all over the globe.
Four phases may be identified within the European model
of crises and conflicts management, pertaining to member states
security and integrity:
1. Edifying the pre-conflict or post-conflict peace, in order to
prevent crises and conflicts through structural measures on the
long term.

65

2. Imposing peace by means of coercive means, in


situations such as aggression of national borders, maintaining
peace or an intervention to protect the human rights.
3. Maintaining peace by means of preventive diplomacy or
preventive force deployment;
4. Restoring peace by means of non-coercive means, most
of the time by diplomatic means.
In EUs acceptation, preventing conflicts represents the
essence of its external actions and to achieve this objective the
Union is using development assistance as well as long term
reconstruction and means to manage military and civil crises for a
short term in order to ensure conflict management for the preconflict and post-conflict situations. Depending on the type of
problems that need to be managed, the EU may use development
assistance cu fight off poverty and diseases or use its commercial
agreements to ensure better access to its markets, with the aim of
encouraging the states that have economic difficulties and
supporting the developing ones.
Also, the EU may offer technical and financial aid in areas
like governance, security system, justice, rural development,
transportation, energy, health etc. The Union may cooperate with
other international organizations and national authorities to
combat drugs, weapons or persons trafficking. One aspect that is
worth mentioning is that the EU is very active regarding preventive
diplomacy and mediating. In the event that is faced with an open
conflict or with post-conflict situations, the EU is involved in the
management of military and civil crises as well as post-conflict
66

stabilization and assistance for long term developing and


reconstruction. In order to achieve these objectives, the Union
calls on its political influence to end the conflict, enforces the
cease fire terms, brings in the instauration and maintenance of
peace and offers human and emergency aid for the long term
supervision for the following period as well as the long term. Along
with the already mentioned aid, the Union brings in experts to
supervise the elections while, at the same time, runs projects
meant to educate voters, it supports the consolidation of the
judicial system in the way of developing the rule of law, promoting
human rights and contributing to improving police services.
Regarding the EUs activity in the Western Balkans, in
areas plagued by ethnic conflicts, the main objective is to enlarge
the peace, stability and security area. In order to reach this target,
in the last fifteen years, the EU has brought in important financial
aid through specific programs but also military aid.
The European Union has covered a learning process in the
Balkans. Its incapacity for an efficient action to impose peace in
the conflict regions, has brought up the unsatisfying side of the
consensual nature of the Union. The failure of the Allied Force
operation to achieve a quick surrender of the Serbs has
contributed to the exacerbation of the EUs accountability for the
crimes that took place in this region and regarding the path
needed to take in order to ensure its credibility as an international
actor. The Kosovo conflict has offered an opportunity for the EU
regarding the bringing into existence of an operative European
Common Defense and Security Policy (CDSP). On an institutional
67

level, the Kosovo crisis has opened the debate regarding the
enforcement of CDSP through the Treaty of Nice, but on a
regional policy level, the EU has been forced to assume the role of
paymaster for the reconstruction process of South Eastern Europe
by means of the Stability Pact. Following the Dayton Agreement,
the EU has adopted a consistent and efficient trend in
approaching the political stabilization and economic recovery in
this region.
The trump held by the EU in the Balkans is the conditioning
policy, a very efficient tool for the countries aiming to join, where
the political elite and the population as well, are willing to
undertake important tasks in order to reach this objective that is
considered by many a universal panacea for all the problems they
might have. Most of the positive processes in S-E Europe are due
to the European integration perspective of the states that have
had or are now experiencing conflicts, this aspect lending a
stabilizing effect on the regional evolution.
From the perspective of the EU terrorism prevention efforts,
the idea of consolidating the Trans-Atlantic relation sticks out,
especially after the 9.11 events. By doing this, the EU member
states have contributed to the eradication of this phenomenon by
using a number of tools: eradicating terrorist cells in Europe,
employing

prevention

actions

for

terrorist

acts,

financial

supervision and cutting of funding to the respective groups,


consolidating the information sharing system between secret
services and police and intelligence cooperation.

68

On an EU level there are strategies that have been


adopted, coordinated and supervised in order to ensure the
management of prevention, handling and solving the arisen
phenomena in various areas of activity such as economic,
banking, and energy, sectors that are susceptible to be affected by
crises or conflicts.
Regarding the EU policy of responding to the present
economic and financial crisis, the main action paths are: ensuring
a global answer to the financial crisis, coordinated actions on the
level of the European community, measures to limit the expansion
of the crisis, a more stern supervision of the banking sector,
supporting enterprises, ensuring the budgetary stability on a
national level, accelerating reforms and investments, human
resources financing, social protection, creating a research sector
able to support the European economy.
From the energy perspective, along with the taken
measures for diversifying the energy routes, suppliers and
renewable energy resources, in economic terms, according to
data published by the European Commission, in 2010, the EU has
been the main commercial partner of the Russian Federation for
imports as well as exports. This picture clearly indicates
dependence on Russia on the European market.

NATOs role in crisis and conflict management


At the time of its creation in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) perceived the Soviet Union as the main
69

opponent of freedom and independence in Western Europe. Now,


20 years after the disbandment of the USSR, the Alliance
continues to function but after having went through important
transformations, changes of concepts and even a development of
a strategic relation with the Russian Federation.
NATO`s main and permanent purpose is to defend the
freedom and security of all its members, by political and military
means, as well as insuring peace and stability, while upholding
the principles of the United Nations Chart. The functioning of the
organization is based on common agreement and mutual
cooperation among sovereign states with the purpose of insuring
security for all the partners, under the umbrella of collective
defense. This concept is crystalized as a fulfillment of national
efforts confronted with the challenges of addressing security
issues.
Member states have come to realize that a regional crisis
that emerged outside their borders may pose a possible threat to
its national interests and their interests and for this reason, NATO
gets involved every time it assesses that its actions are possible
and necessary to avoid crises, to manage and diminish crises and
undergoing conflicts, stabilizing post-conflict situations in order to
support the reconstruction of the affected areas.
From NATOs perspective, crises management includes a
series of coordinated actions ment to avoid a crisis, to prevent the
heightening of an armed conflict and ceasing hostilities, if any.
This set of actions consists of: gathering and evaluating
70

information, analizing the neccesitaty to be followed and action


options, implementing one of the options as well as analizing
reactions following the the adopted actions. Regarding situations
that may represent the object of management, any threat felt by
any member state may represent a problem that must be
answered by the other member states and will be taken into
consideration by the Alliance.
Within the crisis management prccess, the Alliance
emphasizes conflict prevention through activities that involve
diplomatic initiatives, taking part in negociations, inspections or
supervizing, preventive deployment of civil or military forces. The
purpose of these operations is to deter the escalations of disputes
or tensions of armed conflicts.
For the management proccess of crisis management,
NATO has identified five stages:
1. intelligence gathering, studying indicators and sending
warnings about a potential or pending crisis;
2. assesing the crisis situation and ascertaining the
implications for NATOs security and its members;
3. Identifying the answering options, recommended to
support the decisional process within the North-Atlantic Council or
the Defense Planning Committee;
4. Detailed planning and executing decisions and directives
of the North-Atlantic Council or the Defense Planning Committee;
71

5. Returning to stability.
After a reluctant start in the beginning of the 1990, NATO
has gradually become the institution tasked with the main
responsibilities for leading peace keeping operations for ethnic
conflicts in Europe. NATOs approach to social conflicts was split
in two: initiating mechanisms in order to prevent these types of
conflicts and adapting military missions in order to offer a quick
reaction when deterrence measures fail.
The Partnership for Peace (PfP), the main cooperation
program for Central and Eastern Europe and NATO, has
significantly benefited the stabilization of conflicts zones from
Central and South-Eastern Europe by creating an environment of
understanding, trust and cooperation among allies, on one side,
and partner countries, on the other side, as well as promoting
military reform.
Analyzing the way that NATO has handled the ethnic
conflicts management in the Balkans, one remarkable aspect is
that the Alliance owns a large number of advantages, compared to
other international organizations, that ensures better credibility on
the international scene. This credibility arises from NATOs
already proven capacity to act, coordinate and cooperate with third
parties. One factor that lends strength to the Alliance is that NATO
guarantees US involvement in Europes security. The US
diplomatic influence and the military strength have ensured the
fact that NATO is being treated as a serious international actor,
demonstrating that it can act in a more efficient manner than under
72

the aegis of international organizations. Since the end of the Cold


War, NATOs ability to cooperate with other international
organizations has constantly developed, this being a direct result
of the need to offer a more efficient management of ethnic
conflicts in Europe. The Berlin Plus arrangements between NATO
and EU, developed due to the underdeveloped military side of EU,
have institutionalized and consolidated NATO-EU relations,
limiting rivalry and institutional competition. This is a significant
aspect regarding EUs military development but also to unburden
NATO of the responsibility of ensuring the European security
management.
The open doors policy promoted within NATO and the
developments of the states after the EU accession process
strengthen the expectations regarding the pacification of the
Balkans. Previous accession experience have emphasized the
fact that the simultaneous ongoing of both processes (the EU and
NATO accession) have significantly contributed to assuming the
Western states values by the candidate countries and the
contribution made by these states to develop a regional and
international environment that will ensure regional and global
security.

World Trade Organization


The World Trade Organization (WTO) has begun to
function on January 1st 1995 but the premises of the system were
in place and working for approximately 50 years, under the aspect
of GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. One aspect
73

must be noticed, GATT in the 50 years period had proven its


flexibility, by permanently adapting to economic, social and politic
challenges of each stage in the global, regional and national
context for the involved parties. At the same time with the
beginning of the WTO activity, the worlds economy entered a new
stage of evolution, based on new or improved commercial rules,
meant to create the premises for a high degree of transparency,
stability and predictability regarding worldwide economic relations.
The WTO agreements include regulations that address goods,
services and rights of intellectual property, clearly specifying the
principles of liberalization and the allowed exceptions and include
individual arrangements and other commercial issues; opening
and maintaining the services markets. Also, these agreements
establish the necessary procedures for solving disputes and
impose to governments that the adopted commercial policies must
be transparent, notifying WTO in regard to laws in force, adopted
measures, by means of the countrys regular reports forwarded to
the Secretariat. These rules represent agreements negotiated by
governments.
The least developed countries, receive a large amount of
attention from the WTO, all the agreements admitting the fact that
lowering the import barriers regarding exports of less developed
countries, with the more advanced members that need to double
their efforts to lower the barrier level for imports.
The economic growth was based on starting WTO and its
employed activity on a world scale. The economic growth of one
state can no longer be regarded as being outside the economic
74

situation

of

the

world,

given

the

deepening

of

the

interdependences, and the worldwide adopted solutions, must be


supported by assumed measures in order to ensure a high
efficiency level.

Romania and the present security context


Romania is not and nor will be in the near future faced with any
type of major classical national security threat Presently,
Romanias security risks are mainly non-military and mostly
internal, being manifested especially in the economic, financial
and social areas. Given the Euro-Atlantic integration and the
growth

of

integrating

processes,

as

consequence

of

globalization, ensuring security political, economic or social is


no longer an exclusive attribute of the state but also an objective
for national, regional or international actors.
In addition to these measures, meant to overcome the
present security challenges, initiated, supported and implemented
throughout South-Eastern Europe by international organizations to
which Romania is part. The thesis has identified a series of
measures that have the potential to stimulate the economic relaunching given the present conditions of the security context. In
this regard, one important issue for Romanias economic recovery
is the equilibration of the trade balance with the current account
balance with the purpose of ensuring the necessary monetary
liquidities for supporting consumption and investments. Mitigating
75

and preventing the lack of equilibrium of current account


necessitate measures of regulating and reglementation of cross
border flow of capital. Romania, as a predominantly goods
importing country, must develop, at the same time, its productive
side or capital importing, in order to have the necessary funds of
paying for the imported goods and services without the need to
further the debt amount.
Among the number of measures that can be taken to
overcome this lack of equilibrium there are: a controlled
depreciation of the national currency, discouraging consumption
by stimulating the creation of savings as a result of an increase in
bank deposit interests, reducing the budgetary deficit. Also, given
the conditions generated by the economic crisis but also a raise in
the level of exigency and international markets competition,
several methods and management techniques have been
identified in order to promote the national proposal for export,
attracting foreign

investments,

developing

entrepreneurship,

developing and promoting key economic sectors of Romanian


economy, as well as adapting the educational system to the
realities of economic life.
One other important aspect in ensuring economic stability is
represented by regular juridical reports, reducing the amount of
uncertainty for short, medium and long term perspectives. In this
context, the need to guarantee the predictability of legal
regulations as well as the interpretation of the present legal
framework, so that any person, the moment he or she initiates a
76

certain demeanor, may foresee the legal consequences of that


action.
Economic growth is influenced by a series of variables such
as: demographics, political environment, security climate, energy,
technologic progress etc, and its expresion can be found in the
national gross product, productivity, commerce, investments,
financial flows. As shown in the thesis, being a member of WTO or
EU, may have a decisive contribution on gaining stability and even
economic

growth.

This

is

possible,

mostly,

due

to

the

implementation by the respective country of the multilateral


commercial system, in the legislative area as well as the
organizing and functioning area.

77

CURRICULUL VITAE
Surname / First name

ROTARU Ncolae Sorinel

Work experience
Dates
Position held
Name of Employer
Type of activity
Dates
Position held
Name of Employer
Type of activity
Dates

01.09.2010 - present
Deputy Director
National Registry Office for Classified Information - ORNISS
National Distribution Agency
01.08.2006 30.08.2010
Councilor - Chief of Service
National Registry Office for Classified Information - ORNISS
Reglementation Service, field of classified information
01.09.2003 30.04.2004

Position held

Referrer

Name of Employer

ORNISS

Type of activity

Regulatory, field of classified information

Education and training


Dates
Title of qualification awarded
Principal subjects covered
Name and type of organization
providing education and training
Level of national classification

Dates
Title of qualification awarded
Principal subjects covered
Name and type of organization
providing education and training
Level of national classification

2009 present
PhD Student
Economic Science / Management
Valahia University, Targoviste
PhD Studies

2006-2007
Graduate
Information management
Valahia University, Trgovite
Post-university

78

Dates

1999 - 2002

Title of qualification awarded

Licensed in economics

Principal subjects covered

Finances - accounting

Name and type of organization


providing education and training
Level of national classification

University of Banat, Timioara


university

Foreign languages
Self-assessment

Understanding

Speaking

Nivel european

Listening

Reading

Spoken interaction

English

Advanced

Advanced

Fluent

Fluent

French

Fair

Fair

Fair

Fair

Italian

Fair

Fair

Fair

Fair

79

Spoken produc

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