Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Noiembrie 2013
Cuprins
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Motivaie
Definiii i noiuni introductive
Analiza univariat
Analiza multivariat
Interpretarea ciclurilor de afaceri prin prisma
modelelor econometrice
6. Concluzii
1. Motivaie
Perioadele de expansiune i declin au o influen semnificativ
asupra economiei obinerea unor informaii privind identificarea
acestora reprezint o arie de interes;
Posibilitatea identificrii punctelor de cotitur i analiza strii
curente a economiei;
Studiul ciclurilor specifice altor serii de date;
Identificarea ocurilor cu cel mai mare impact asupra ciclului de
afaceri.
Referine: Artis et. Al (1997), Artis i Zhang (1997, 1999), Chauvet i
Piger (2003, US), Marcellino et. al (2004, EA), Krolzig, H.M. i Toro
(2004), Giannone et al (2009) ,Isrescu (2013).
NOT: n identificarea ciclurilor de afaceri analiza este realizat pe nivelul seriilor deoarece
trendul joac un rol esenial n cadrul dinamicii acestora. Definiia tehnic a recesiunii implic
dou rate trimestriale consecutive de cretere negativ a nivelului PIB.
2.
3.
1, ()
0, ()
Amplitudine (BC);
Durat (AB);
Pant (BC/AB);
Traiectoria efectiv n funcie
de care se calculeaz
ctigul/pierderea cumulat
(S1+S2) i excesul (S2/S1)
(Harding i Pagan, 2002).
Puncte de cotitur :
T: 2000:3
P: 2008:3
T: 2010:3
P: 2011:3
T: 2012:1
Indicator
E
1030
51,9
-9,7
32
791,8
-58,1
Exces (%)
-4,6
49,9
Panta
1,6
-1,2
Amplitudine (%)
Durata (trim.)
Ctig/Pierdere (%)
PIB
Maxim
Minim
1040
100*log
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1050
1020
1010
1000
990
2000:1
2002:1
2004:1
2006:1
2008:1
E 2000:4 2008:3
D 2008:4 2010:3
2010:1
2012:1
1045
1045
1045
1040
1040
1040
1035
1035
1035
1030
2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1 2013:1
1030
2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1 2013:1
1030
2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1 2013:1
1045
1045
1045
1040
1040
1040
1035
1035
1035
1030
2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1 2013:1
1030
2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1 2013:1
1030
2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1 2013:1
4. Analiza multivariat
PIB
Consum
FBCF
Export
Import
Exp. b.&serv. (BOP)
Imp. b.&serv. (BOP)
Exp. mat. prime
Exp. b. interm.
Imp. mat. prime
Imp. b. interm.
Imp. b. capital
Imp. b. consum
Prod. ind.
Prod. ind. prelucr.
Prod. ind. b. interm.
Expansiune
Perm. de constr.
Incredere RO
BET-C
- Prima
ISD non r.
- Somaj inreg.
Nr. angaj. econ.
CA com. aman.
CA auto
Declin
CA comb
CA serv. pop.
CA b. alim.
CA b. nealim.
Pret petrol brent
Incredere EU
Prod. ind. EA 17
Importurile UE
2013:1
2012:3
2012:1
2011:3
2011:1
2010:3
2010:1
2009:3
2009:1
2008:3
2008:1
2007:3
2007:1
2006:3
2006:1
2005:3
2005:1
2004:3
2004:1
2003:3
2003:1
2002:3
2002:1
2001:3
2001:1
2000:3
2000:1
Date observate
Date simulate
(toate ocurile)
Date simulate
(fr ocuri de
cerere extern)
Date simulate
(fr ocuri de
cerere intern)
Date simulate
(fr ocuri de
ofert)
51,9
-9,7
15,6
-4,2
14,5
-2,0
14,5
-3,2
15,5
-4,1
Durata (trim.)
32
11
13
12
11
Panta
1,6
-1,2
1,4
-1
1,2
-0,7
1,1
-0,7
1,4
-1
Amplitudine (%)
6. Concluzii
Analizei ciclurilor de afaceri a identificat dou perioade de referin:
O expansiune care a debutat n trimestrul IV 2000 i s-a ncheiat n trimestrul III
2008;
Un declin care a nceput n trimestrul IV 2008 i s-a sfrit n trimestrul III 2010.
Referine bibliografice
Artis M.J. i W. Zhang, 1997. International Business Cycles and the ERM. International Journal of Finance and
Economics, 2,1, January;
Artis M.J. i W. Zhang, 1999. Further Evidence on International Business Cycle and the ERM: is there a European
Business Cycle? Oxford Economic Papers, 51, 120-32;
Artis, M.J., Z.G., Kontolemis i D.R. Osborn (1997), Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries. Journal of
Business, 70, 249-279.
Bry, G. i C. Boschan (1971) Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, New
York, NBER;
Burns, A.F. i W.C. Mitchell (1946) Measuring Business Cycles, New York, NBER;
Chauvet, M. i J.M. Piger (2003), "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time", Federal Reserve Bank of
St Louis Review, March/April, 47-62.
Harding, D. i A. Pagan (2002) Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation, Journal of Monetary
Economics 49 (2002), pg. 365-381;
Harding, D. i A. R. Pagan (2006) Synchronization of Cycles, Journal of Econometrics, 132, 59-79;
Isrescu, M. (2013) Ciclurile Economice, Disertaie cu ocazia decernrii titlului de Doctor Honoris Causa al
Universitii Politehnice Bucureti, 18 octombrie 2013;
Giannone, D., Lenza M. and Reichlin L., (2009), Business cycles in the euro area, ECB working paper No
1010/2009;
Krolzig, H.-M. i Toro, J. (2004). Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case, Spanish
Economic Review, 1-21
Marcellino, M.G., M.J. Artis i T. Proietti, (2004), "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle: A Methodological
Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 66, 537-565;
Stock, J.H. i M.W. Watson, (2010) ,"Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets" NBER Working Paper 16532
Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER, The NBERs Recession Dating Procedure,
http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html.