Cuprins

I. Introducere: Ce este econometria? ................................................................. 3

II. Principalele tipuri de modele econometrice utilizate n economie .......... 11

III. Modelul unifactorial ......................................................................................... 24

IV. Modelul multifactorial ....................................................................................... 70

V. Modaliti de includere a variabilelor calitative n modelul econometric 100

VI. Serii cronologice analizate att prin prisma componentelor, ct i a

nestaionaritii i cointegrrii .................................................................... 110

VII. Modele dinamice destinate includerii efectelor decalate n timp ........ 129

VIII. Modele stochastice de prognoz ................................................................ 143

IX. Elemente de analiz spectral ........................................................................ 168

X. Modele econometrice cu ecuaii multiple ....................................................... 177

XI. Aplicaii econometrice la nivel de firm ....................................................... 204

Anexe ........................................................................................................................... 233

 &DSLWROXO,

,QWURGXFHUH&HHVWHHFRQRPHWULD"


6FXUWLVWRULFSULYLQGDSDUL LDLGH]YROWDUHDHFRQRPHWULHL

8Q PRPHQW LPSRUWDQW vQ FRQVWLWXLUHD L GH]YROWDUHD (&2120(75,(, FD GLVFLSOLQ 

HFRQRPLF  GH IURQWLHU  DS UXW  vQ GRPHQLLOH GH LQWHUIHUHQ  DOH WHRULHL HFRQRPLFH VWDWLVWLFLL L

PDWHPDWLFLL VH FRQVLGHU  DQXO   GHFHPEULH FkQG VD vQILLQ DW OD &OHYHODQG 6RFLHWDWHD GH

(FRQRPHWULH (FRQRPHWULF 6RFLHW\ DYkQGXL FD LQL LDWRUL SH ,UYLQJ )LVFKHU  SUHHGLQWH / 9

%RUWNLHZLF]5)ULVFK++RWHOOLQJ/6FKXPSHWHU1:LHQHULDO LL

8QUROGHRVHELWvQGH]YROWDUHDLSRSXODUL]DUHDHFRQRPHWULHLODDYXWUHYLVWDDFHVWHLVRFLHW L

(FRQRPHWULFDFDUHDSDUHWULPHVWULDOvQFHSkQGGLQLDQXDULH

(WLPRORJLF WHUPHQXO GH HFRQRPHWULH SURYLQH GLQ FXYLQWHOH JUHFHWL HLNRQRPLD HFRQRPLH

L PHWUHQ P VXU  (O D IRVW LQWURGXV  GH F WUH 5DJQDU )ULVFK HFRQRPLVW L VWDWLVWLFLDQ

QRUYHJLDQ SULQ DQDORJLH FX WHUPHQXO ELRPHWULH IRORVLW GH )U *DOWRQ L . 3HDUVRQ OD VIkULWXO

VHFROXOXL;,;FDUHGHVHPQDFHUFHW ULOHELRORJLFHFHXWLOL]DXPHWRGHOHVWDWLVWLFLLPDWHPDWLFH

'DU QX FHL FDUH DX LQWURGXV WHUPHQXO L DX vQILLQ DW 6RFLHWDWHD GH (FRQRPHWULH DX L

LQYHQWDWDFHDVW GLVFLSOLQ 

6XE DVSHFW LVWRULF VWXGLHUHD FDQWLWDWLY  D IHQRPHQHORU HFRQRPLFH HVWH PXOW PDL YHFKH

3ULQWUH SUHFXUVRULL HFRQRPHWULHL PRGHUQH SRW IL FLWD L ) 4XHVQD\ : 3HWW\ *UHJRU\ .LQJ $

&RXUQRW/HRQ:DOUDV((QJHO$0DUVKDOO5$)LVKHU.3HDUVRQLDO LL

Q SHULRDGD FRQWHPSRUDQ  FRQWULEX LL LPSRUWDQWH OD GH]YROWDUHD HFRQRPHWULHL DX IRVW DGXVH

GH

 vQ GRPHQLXO DQDOL]HL HFRQRPLFH D FHUHULL 0 )ULHGPDQ 7 +DDYHOPR 5 6WRQH +

:DOGD

 vQ GRPHQLXO IXQF LLORU GH SURGXF LH & : &REE 3 + 'RXJODV . - $UURZ *

7LQWQHU

 vQ GRPHQLXO PRGHOHORU PDFURHFRQRPLFH $ 6 *ROGEHUJHU 2 2QLFHVFX / 9

.DQWDUHYLFL/5.OHLQ-7LQEHUJHQ +7KHLO

 vQ GRPHQLXO PHWRGHORU GH DQDOL]  D GDWHORU VDX DO HFRQRPHWULHL I U  PRGHOH 7 :

$QGHUVRQ-3%HQ]pFUL++RWHOOLQJ5$)LVKHULDO LL

Q PRPHQWXO DFWXDO LPSXOVLRQDW  SXWHUQLF GH UHYROX LD WHKQLFRWLLQ LILF   FX UHDOL] UL GH

YkUI vQ GRPHQLXO FDOFXODWRDUHORU HOHFWURQLFH  HFRQRPHWULD D GHYHQLW XQ LQVWUXPHQW PHWRGRORJLF GH

ED]  LQGLVSHQVDELO WHRULHL L SUDFWLFLL HFRQRPLFH SHQWUX LQYHVWLJDUHD ULJXURDV  D IHQRPHQHORU L

SURFHVHORUHFRQRPLFH

'HILQL LLOHHFRQRPHWULHL

'H]YROWDUHD UDSLG  D HFRQRPHWULHL D JHQHUDW IRUPXODUHD PDL PXOWRU GHILQL LL FX SULYLUH OD

GRPHQLXO DFHVWHL GLVFLSOLQH HFRQRPLFH 7RWXL PDUHD PDMRULWDWH D DFHVWRUD SRDWH IL vQFDGUDW  vQ

XUP WRDUHOHWUHLJUXSH

D GHILQL LDLVWRULF 

E GHILQL LDUHVWULFWLY 

F GHILQL LDH[WLQV 




1XPHOHVFULVHFXLWDOLFHvLGHVHPQHD] SHODXUHD LL3UHPLXOXL1REHOvQHFRQRPLH

3
 D'HILQL LDLVWRULF DHFRQRPHWULHLDIRVWIRUPXODW GH5)ULVFKvQSULPXOQXP UDOUHYLVWHL

(FRQRPHWULFD vQ LDQXDULH  H[SHULHQ D D DU WDW F  ILHFDUH GLQ XUP WRDUHOH WUHL SXQFWH GH

YHGHUH DO VWDWLVWLFLL DO WHRULHL HFRQRPLFH L DO PDWHPDWLFLL HVWH R FRQGL LH QHFHVDU  GDU QX L

VXILFLHQW SHQWUXRvQ HOHJHUHHIHFWLY DUHDOLW LORUFDQWLWDWLYHGLQHFRQRPLDPRGHUQ XQLILFDUHDORU

HVWHDFHHDFDUHDVLJXU HILFLHQ D(FRQRPHWULDHVWHWRFPDLDFHDVW XQLILFDUH

&RQIRUP DFHVWHL GHILQL LL VXV LQ WRULL HL FRQVLGHU  F  SULQ HFRQRPHWULH VH vQ HOHJH VWXGLHUHD

IHQRPHQHORUHFRQRPLFHSHED]DGDWHORUVWDWLVWLFHFXDMXWRUXOPRGHOHORUPDWHPDWLFLL

E 'HILQL LD UHVWULFWLY  SURSXV  GH &RZOHV &RPPLVVLRQ IRU 5HVHDUFK LQ (FRQRPLFV

&KLFDJR  FRQVLGHU  F  QX H[LVW  HFRQRPHWULH GDF  LQYHVWLJDUHD IHQRPHQHORU

HFRQRPLFHQXVHIDFHFXDMXWRUXOPRGHOHORUDOHDWRDUHVWRFKDVWLFH

6XV LQ WRULL DFHVWHL GHILQL LL / 5 .OHLQ ( 0DOLQYDXG * 5RWWLHU LQFOXG vQ GRPHQLXO

HFRQRPHWULHL QXPDL FHUFHW ULOH HFRQRPLFH FDUH XWLOL]HD]  PHWRGHOH LQGXF LHL VWDWLVWLFH  WHRULD

HVWLPD LHL YHULILFDUHD LSRWH]HORU VWDWLVWLFH  OD YHULILFDUHD UHOD LLORU FDQWLWDWLYH IRUPXODWH vQ WHRULD

HFRQRPLF FXSULYLUHODIHQRPHQHOHVDXSURFHVHOHHFRQRPLFHFHUFHWDWH

&RQIRUPDFHVWRUGHILQL LLXQVWXGLXHFRQRPHWULFSUHVXSXQH

 H[LVWHQ D SUHDODELO  D XQHL WHRULL HFRQRPLFH SULYLQG IHQRPHQXO SURFHVXO VDX VLVWHPXO

HFRQRPLF FHUFHWDW SH ED]D F UHLD VH FRQVWUXLHWH PRGHOXO HFRQRPLF FDUH UHSUH]LQW  IRUPDOL]DUHD

LSRWH]HORUWHRULHLHFRQRPLFHFXSULYLUHODIHQRPHQXOSURFHVXOVDXVLVWHPXOLQYHVWLJDW

 SRVLELOLWDWHD DSOLF ULL PHWRGHORU LQGXF LHL VWDWLVWLFH OD YHULILFDUHD LSRWH]HORU WHRULHL

HFRQRPLFHFRQVWUXLUHDPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULFLUH]ROYDUHDDFHVWXLD

$FHDVW  GHILQL LH UHVWULFWLY  H[FOXGH GLQ GRPHQLXO HFRQRPHWULHL FHUFHW ULOH HFRQRPLFH FDUH

QXVHIXQGDPHQWHD] SH

 R WHRULH HFRQRPLF   LPSOLFLW  VDX H[SOLFLW  SULYLQG PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF DO IHQRPHQXOXL

SURFHVXOXLVDXVLVWHPXOXLVWXGLDW

 RLQWHUSUHWDUHDOHDWRDUHDPRGHOXOXLUHVSHFWLY

$VWIHO DQDOL]D VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH PRGHOXO OXL /HRQWLHI %/5 FD L VWDWLVWLFD HFRQRPLF 

FDUHVHIXQGDPHQWHD] SHPHWRGDEDODQ HORUQXLQWU vQVIHUDGHFXSULQGHUHDHFRQRPHWULHLSULPD

GHRDUHFH H[LVWHQ D XQHL WHRULL HFRQRPLFH QX HVWH QHFHVDU  LDU XOWLPHOH GRX  ILLQGF  QX SHUPLW

DSOLFDUHDPHWRGHORULQGXF LHLVWDWLVWLFH

F'HILQL LDH[WLQV DHFRQRPHWULHLSURPRYDW GHHFRQRPLWLLGLQ ULOHDQJORVD[RQH LQH

VHDPD GH SXWHUQLFD GH]YROWDUH DS UXW  GXS   D PHWRGHORU FHUFHW ULL RSHUD LRQDOH WHRULD

RSWLPXOXLWHRULDVWRFXULORUWHRULDJUDIHORUWHRULDGHFL]LLORUWHRULDMRFXULORUHWF

3ULQ HFRQRPHWULH vQ VHQVXO ODUJ DO WHUPHQXOXL VH vQ HOHJH HFRQRPHWULD GHILQLW  vQ PRG

UHVWULFWLY DGLF  LQFOXGH GRPHQLLOH PHQ LRQDWH DWXQFL FkQG HD HVWH vQ HOHDV  vQ VHQV UHVWULFWLY OD

FDUH VH DGDXJ  PHWRGHOH FHUFHW ULL RSHUD LRQDOH Q SUH]HQW vQ GRPHQLXO HFRQRPHWULHL VH LQFOXG L

WHKQLFLOHPRGHUQHGHDQDOL] DGDWHORUVDXDQDOL]DPDULORUWDEHOH

'HRDUHFH vQF  QX VD FULVWDOL]DW R FRQFHS LH XQLWDU  SULYLQG IURQWLHUHOH HFRQRPHWULHL vQ

PDQXDOHOH VDX WUDWDWHOH GH HFRQRPHWULH DXWRULL GH UHJXO  vL PHQ LRQHD]  FRQFHS LD SH ED]D F UHLD

LDXVWUXFWXUDWOXFU ULOH

Q DUD QRDVWU  DWkW vQ OLWHUDWXUD GH VSHFLDOLWDWH GHL UDUHRUL VH IDF SUHFL] UL H[SUHVH FkW L

SULQ VWUXFWXUD SODQXULORU GH vQY PkQW GH OD IDFXOW LOH HFRQRPLFH HFRQRPHWULD HVWH FRQFHSXW  L

DSOLFDW  FD PHWRG  JHQHUDO  GH LQYHVWLJDUH FDQWLWDWLY  D IHQRPHQHORU L SURFHVHORU HFRQRPLFH 

DGLF vQDFFHS LXQHDODUJ DWHUPHQXOXL

8Q GRPHQLX PDL SX LQ DERUGDW DWkW WHRUHWLF FkW L SUDFWLF vO FRQVWLWXLH PHWRGHOH

HFRQRPHWULHLvQVHQVXOUHVWULFWLYDOWHUPHQXOXLUHVSHFWLYPRGHOHOHDOHDWRDUHVWRFKDVWLFH

0RGHOHOH GHWHUPLQLVWH XWLOL]DWH vQ PRG FXUHQW L GH PXOW  YUHPH vQ WHRULD L SUDFWLFD

HFRQRPLF  GLQ DUD QRDVWU  VXQW GH PXOWH RUL LQDGHFYDWH SHQWUX D H[SOLFD L PDL DOHV SHQWUX D

SURJQR]D SHUWLQHQW HYROX LD IHQRPHQHORU SURFHVHORU VDX VLVWHPHORU HFRQRPLFH HOHPHQWH GLQDPLFH

SULQQDWXUDORU

'H DVHPHQHD vQ VWXGLLOH PXOW PDL UHFHQWH VH LQVLVW  DVXSUD IDSWXOXL F  VWXGLXO VHULLORU GH

WLPSSULYLQGHYROX LDIHQRPHQHORUHFRQRPLFHQXSRDWHILLQGHSHQGHQWGHWHRULDHFRQRPLF 6HDXvQ

YHGHUH vQ DFHVW VHQV QX DWkW GHWHUPLQDUHD L H[WUDJHUHD HFRQRPHWULF  D WHQGLQ HL FkW L DVSHFWHOH

4
OHJDWH GH HIHFWXO vQWkU]LDW vQ WLPS SURSDJDUHD LPSXOVXOXL XQRU YDULDELOH H[RJHQH DVXSUD YDULDELOHL

SURJQR]DWHQDWXUDRVFLOD LLORUGHGLIHULWHIUHFYHQ HHWF$FHVWHDVXQWPRWLYHOHFDUHDXGHWHUPLQDWFD

PRGHOHOH GLQDPLFH  ED]DWH SH DQDOL]D HYROX LHL vQ WLPS D IHQRPHQHORU HFRQRPLFH  V L J VHDVF 

ORFXOvQDUVHQDOXOPRGHOHORUHFRQRPHWULFHSUH]HQWDWHvQDFHVWFXUV

1R LXQLLFRQFHSWHIXQGDPHQWDOHDOHHFRQRPHWULHL

0HWRGD PRGHOHORU VDX PHWRGD PRGHO ULL UHSUH]LQW  SULQFLSDOXO LQVWUXPHQW GH LQYHVWLJDUH

HFRQRPHWULF DIHQRPHQHORUHFRQRPHWULFH

'DU PRGHODUHD VDX PHWRGD PRGHOHORU QX FRQVWLWXLH R QRXWDWH vQ WLLQ D HFRQRPLF  7DEORXO

HFRQRPLF DO HFRQRPLVWXOXL IL]LRFUDW ) 4XHVQD\  OHJLOH OXL (QJHO  FRHILFLHQWXO GH

HODVWLFLWDWH IRUPXODW GH 0DUVKDOO  UHSUH]LQW  PRPHQWH LVWRULFH GH OD FDUH FHUFHWDUHD

HFRQRPLF  WUHFH GH OD HWDSD GHVFULSWLY  OD HWDSD GH H[SOLFDUH IRUPDO  D FDX]HORU L IRUPHORU GH

PDQLIHVWDUHDOHIHQRPHQHORUHFRQRPLFH

Q JHQHUDO 02'(/8/ UHSUH]LQW  XQ LQVWUXPHQW GH FHUFHWDUH WLLQ LILF  R LPDJLQH

FRQYHQ LRQDO KRPRPRUI VLPSOLILFDW DRELHFWXOXLVXSXVFHUFHW ULL

)LLQGRFRQVWUXF LHDEVWUDFW vQFDUHVHQHJOLMHD] SURSULHW LOHQHHVHQ LDOHPRGHOXOHVWHPDL

DFFHVLELOLQYHVWLJD LHLvQWUHSULQVHGHVXELHFWDFHDVWDILLQGXQDGLQH[SOLFD LLOHPXOWLSOHORUXWLOL] ULSH

FDUHPRGHOXOOHDUHvQHSRFDFRQWHPSRUDQ 

8WLOL]DW vQ HFRQRPLH PRGHOXO  LPDJLQH DEVWUDFW  IRUPDO  D XQXL IHQRPHQ SURFHV VDX

VLVWHPHFRQRPLFVHFRQVWUXLHWHvQFRQFRUGDQ FXWHRULDHFRQRPLF UH]XOWkQGPRGHOXOHFRQRPLF

0RGHOXOHFRQRPLFUHSURGXFkQGvQPRGVLPEROLFWHRULDHFRQRPLF DRELHFWLYXOXLLQYHVWLJDW

SULQ WUDQVIRUPDUHD VD vQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF GHYLQH XQ RELHFW VXSXV FHUFHW ULL L H[SHULPHQW ULL

YHULILF ULLGHODFDUHVHRE LQLQIRUPD LLQRLSULYLQGFRPSRUWDPHQWXOIHQRPHQXOXLUHVSHFWLY

Q DFHVW PRG UHSUH]HQW ULOH HFRQRPHWULFH VSUH GHRVHELUH GH PRGHOHOH HFRQRPLFH FDUH

H[SOLF  VWUXFWXUD IHQRPHQXOXL VDX SURFHVXOXL HFRQRPLF GH SH SR]L LD WHRULHL HFRQRPLFH DX

vQWRWGHDXQD R ILQDOLWDWH SUDFWLF  RSHUD LRQDO  HOH GHYHQLQG LQVWUXPHQWH GH FRQWURO L GLULMDUH GH

VLPXODUHLGHSUHYL]LXQHDIHQRPHQHORUHFRQRPLFH

9$5,$%,/(/(FDUHIRUPHD] VWUXFWXUDXQXLVLVWHPHFRQRPHWULFGXS QDWXUDORUSRWIL

D YDULDELOHHFRQRPLFH

E YDULDELODHURDUHDOHDWRDUHX

F YDULDELODWLPSW

D 9DULDELOHOH HFRQRPLFH GH UHJXO  VH vPSDUW vQ YDULDELOH H[SOLFDWH UH]XOWDWLYH VDX

 
(1'2*(1(  <   L =   Q  L YDULDELOH H[SOLFDWLYH IDFWRULDOH VDX (;2*(1( ;  M =  N 

LQGHSHQGHQWH GH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH <   Q  QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU UH]XOWDWLYH N  QXP UXO

YDULDELOHORUIDFWRULDOHQFD]XOPRGHOHORUGHVLPXODUHVDXGHSURJQR] YDULDELOHOH; VHPDLvPSDUW

vQYDULDELOHH[RJHQHSUHGHWHUPLQDWHYDULDELOHGHVWDUHDVLVWHPXOXLFDSDFLWDWHDGHSURGXF LHDXQHL

vQWUHSULQGHUL VDX FX ODJ  [

  \
   L YDULDELOH LQVWUXPHQWDOH VDX GH FRPDQG  HFRQRPLF  GREkQGD

LPSR]LWXOSHSURILWHWF

E9DULDELOD$/($72$5(XVLQWHWL]HD] DQVDPEOXOYDULDELOHORUFXH[FHS LDYDULDELOHORU

;  FDUH LQIOXHQ HD]  YDULDELOD HQGRJHQ  <   GDU FDUH QX VXQW VSHFLILFDWH vQ PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF

$FHVWHYDULDELOHIDFWRULSHED]DLSRWH]HORUWHRULHLHFRQRPLFHVXQWFRQVLGHUDWHIDFWRULvQWkPSO WRUL

QHHVHQ LDOL VSUH GHRVHELUH GH YDULDELOHOH ;  FDUH UHSUH]LQW  IDFWRULL GHWHUPLQDQ L HVHQ LDOL DL

YDULDELOHL<  

'HDVHPHQHDYDULDELODHURDUHUHSUH]LQW HYHQWXDOHOHHURULGHP VXU HURULvQWkPSO WRDUHL

QXVLVWHPDWLFHFRQ LQXWHGHGDWHOHVWDWLVWLFHSULYLQGYDULDELOHOHHFRQRPLFH

3H ED]D DFHVWRU SUHPLVH HFRQRPLFH VH DFFHSW  F  YDULDELOD DOHDWRDUH X XUPHD]  R OHJH GH

SUREDELOLWDWH /X vQ DFHVW VFRS IRUPXOkQGXVH R VHULH GH LSRWH]H VWDWLVWLFH FX SULYLUH OD QDWXUD

5
GLVWULEX LHL DFHVWHL YDULDELOH LSRWH]H VWDWLVWLFH FDUH YRU WUHEXL WHVWDWH FX WHVWH VWDWLVWLFH DGHFYDWH

ILHF UHLLSRWH]H

F9DULDELOD7,03WVHLQWURGXFHvQDQXPLWHPRGHOHHFRQRPHWULFHFDYDULDELO H[SOLFDWLY 

D IHQRPHQXOXL HQGRJHQ <   LPSULPkQGXVH DFHVWRUD XQ DWULEXW GLQDPLF VSUH GHRVHELUH GH PRGHOHOH

VWDWLFH

'HL WLPSXO QX SRDWH IL LQWHUSUHWDW FD YDULDELO  FRQFUHW  HFRQRPLF  VH UHFXUJH OD DFHDVW 

YDULDELO H[SOLFDWLY ILFWLY GLQGRX PRWLYH

vQSULPXOUkQGWLPSXOFDYDULDELO HFRQRPHWULF SHUPLWHLGHQWLILFDUHDXQRUUHJXODULW LvQWU

XQ SURFHV HYROXWLY FHHD FH FRQVWLWXLH XQ SULP SDV VSUH VSHFLILFDUHD SUHFLV  D XQRU YDULDELOH FDUH

DF LRQHD] vQWLPS

 vQ DO GRLOHD UkQG HO UHSUH]LQW  P VXUD DUWLILFLDO  D DFHORU YDULDELOH FDUH DF LRQHD]  DVXSUD

YDULDELOHL < FDUH ILLQG GH QDWXU  FDOLWDWLY  QX SRW IL FXDQWLILFDWH L FD DWDUH QLFL VSHFLILFDWH vQ

PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF 8Q H[HPSOX FXQRVFXW vQ DFHVW VHQV vO FRQVWLWXLH IXQF LD GH SURGXF LH &REE

'RXJODVFXSURJUHVWHKQLFDXWRQRP

4 $. / H X      

XQGH 4 YROXPXOIL]LFDOSURGXF LHL

. FDSLWDOXO

/ IRU DGHPXQF 

H QXP UXOQDWXUDO

W WLPSXO

X YDULDELO DOHDWRDUH

$   L F  SDUDPHWULL IXQF LHL F UHSUH]HQWkQG P VXUD

HFRQRPHWULF DLQIOXHQ HLSURJUHVXOXLWHKQLFDVXSUDYROXPXOXLSURGXF LHL

6XUVDGHGDWH9DULDELOHOHHFRQRPLFHVHLQWURGXFvQWUXQPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFFXYDORULOHORU

UHDOHVDXHPSLULFH\  \  \ \ [  [  [ [ Q QXP UXOXQLW LORUREVHUYDWH$FHVWHYDORUL

DOH YDULDELOHORU XQXL PRGHO VH SRW RE LQH SH GRX  F L ILH SH ED]D VLVWHPXOXL LQIRUPD LRQDO VWDWLVWLF

EDQFD GH GDWH ILH SULQ HIHFWXDUHD GH REVHUY UL VWDWLVWLFH VSHFLDO RUJDQL]DWH  GH WLSXO DQFKHWHORU

VWDWLVWLFH

2 SUREOHP  IXQGDPHQWDO  FDUH VH ULGLF  vQ DFHDVW  HWDS  R UHSUH]LQW  FDOLWDWHD GDWHORU

VWDWLVWLFH UHVSHFWLY DXWHQWLFLWDWHD L YHULGLFLWDWHD DFHVWRUD 'DF  XQ PRGHO HFRQRPLF VH FRQVWUXLHWH

FX GDWH IDOVH VDX DIHFWDWH GH HURUL GH P VXU  HO YD F S WD DFHVWH GHILFLHQ H ILLQG FRPSURPLV VXE

DVSHFWRSHUD LRQDO

'HRDUHFH SUREOHPD DXWHQWLFLW LL GDWHORU HFRQRPLFH LQH GH GRPHQLXO VWDWLVWLFLL HFRQRPLFH

QH YRP UH]XPD QXPDL D DPLQWL F  GDWHOH VWDWLVWLFHFDUHSULYHVFYDULDELOHOHHFRQRPLFHVSHFLILFDWHvQ

PRGHOWUHEXLHV ILHFXOHVHI U HURULVLVWHPDWLFHGHREVHUYDUHLGHSUHOXFUDUHvQGHSOLQLQGFRQGL LLOH

GHRPRJHQLWDWH2PRJHQLWDWHDGDWHORUSUHVXSXQH

 FROHFWDUHDORUGHODXQLW LVWDWLVWLFHRPRJHQH

 UHSUH]HQWDUHDDFHORUDLGHILQL LLLPHWRGRORJLLGHFDOFXOFXSULYLUHODVIHUDGHFXSULQGHUHDOH

DFHVWRUDvQWLPSVDXvQVSD LX

 GHVFULHUHD HYROX LHL IHQRPHQHORU vQWUXQ LQWHUYDO GH WLPS vQ FDUH QX VDX SURGXV PRGLILF UL

IXQGDPHQWDOHSULYLQGFRQGL LLOHGHGHVI XUDUHDSURFHVXOXLDQDOL]DW

 H[SULPDUHDYDULDELOHORUvQDFHOHDLXQLW LGHP VXU FRQGL LHFDUHVHUHIHU vQPRGVSHFLDO

ODHYDOXDUHDLQGLFDWRULORUHFRQRPLFLvQSUH XULFRPSDUDELOHVDXSUH XULUHDOH

0DWHULDSULP SHQWUXFDOFXOHHFRQRPLFHRFRQVWLWXLHVHULLOHFURQRORJLFHVHULLGHWLPSVDX

VHULL GLQDPLFH PDL UDU VHULLOH WHULWRULDOH DOH YDULDELOHORU HFRQRPLFH UHVSHFWLYH SUHOXDWH VDX

FRQVWUXLWHSHED]DE QFLLGHGDWHVWDWLVWLFHH[LVWHQWH

2 VHULH FURQRORJLF  VH FRQVWUXLHWH SULQ REVHUYDUHD YDULDELOHORU < L ; SH SHULRDGH HJDOH GH

WLPSW 7WUHSUH]HQWkQGOXQLWULPHVWUHDQLODDFHHDLXQLWDWHHFRQRPLF 

W    7

[
 [  [   [ 

\
 \  \   \ 

6
 

Q FRPSDUD LH FX DFHDVWD R VHULH GH VSD LX UH]XOW  SULQ REVHUYDUHD YDULDELOHORU < L ; vQWUR

DQXPLW  SHULRDG  GH WLPS  OXQ  WULPHVWUX VHPHVWUX DQ  OD XQ DQXPLW QXP U GH XQLW L VRFLR


HFRQRPLFH RPRJHQH L =  Q  Q  QXP UXO XQLW LORU  GH DFHODL SURILO FH DSDU LQ DFHOXLDL VHFWRU

HFRQRPLFHWF2DVWIHOGHVHULHVHSUH]LQW GHUHJXO VXEXUP WRDUHDIRUP 

[  [  [   [ 

\  \  \   \ 


QWUXQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF XQ IHQRPHQ HFRQRPLF ; ^[  ` L =  Q  SRDWH IL LQWURGXV FX

XUP WRDUHOHYDORUL

9DORULUHDOHVDXHPSLULFH[  [  [ [ YDORULH[SULPDWHvQXQLW LGHP VXU VSHFLILFH

QDWXULL IHQRPHQXOXL ; HOH ILLQG P ULPL FRQFUHWH L SR]LWLYH GHFL DSDU LQ VLVWHPXOXL QXPHUHORU

UD LRQDOH9HFWRUXOYDORULORUOXL;[  [  [ [ SRDWHILGHILQLWSULQGRLSDUDPHWUL

PHGLDDULWPHWLF DYDULDELOHL;


[ = 0 [  =  [       
Q


DEDWHUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF DYDULDELOHL;

   

s = s = 0 [  = [
 -[     
Q
 
! !
s " = 0 [  ILLQGGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL

'H RELFHL VH FRQVLGHU  F  YDULDELOD ; XUPHD]  R GLVWULEX LH QRUPDO  GH PHGLH [  L GH

DEDWHUHPHGLHS WUDWLF  # /[ 1 [  # 

%
9DORULOHFHQWUDWH [ $ = [$ - [ 

$FHVWHYDORULVXQWWRWP ULPLFRQFUHWHGDUHOHDSDU LQVLVWHPXOXLQXPHUHORUUHDOHDYkQGDWkW

YDORULSR]LWLYHFkWLQHJDWLYH

6H SRDWH GHPRQVWUD XRU F  DFHVWH YDORUL FHQWUDWH DX PHGLD HJDO  FX ]HUR LDU GLVSHUVLD ORU

HVWHHJDO FXGLVSHUVLDYDORULORUUHDOH


0  [  = [ -[  =      
L
Q


 
  
0 > [  @=  [  = [ -[  = 0 [  
L
Q Q
(( [' - [
 9DORUL FHQWUDWH L QRUPDWH VDX DEDWHUL VWDQGDUG [ ' = &  0HGLD L GLVSHUVLD
s

DFHVWRUYDORULHVWH
) )  [ + -[
0 [  = =      
Q s *
 
  [ -[ s
L [
0 > [  @= = =    
Q 

s
[ s
[
,, -
Q SOXV ID  GH DFHVWH GRX  SURSULHW L / [   1  DEDWHULOH VWDQGDUG VXQW P ULPL

DEVWUDFWH DGLPHQVLRQDOH $FHVWH FDOLW L FRQGXF DWkW OD GLPLQXDUHD FDOFXOHORU VWDWLVWLFH FX DFHVWH


- .. 
 5HOD LD /[   1 VH FLWHWH YDULDELOD [ =  [ / - [   XUPHD]  OHJHD GH SUREDELOLWDWH QRUPDO  DYkQG
s 0
PHGLDHJDO FX]HURLDUDEDWHUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF HVWHHJDO FXXQXOHJHDQRUPDO FHQWUDW LUHGXV 

7
YDORULFkWLODHIHFWXDUHDGHFRPSDUD LLvQWUHGLVWULEX LLOHPDLPXOWRUIHQRPHQHHFRQRPLFHGHQDWXUL

GLIHULWH

8Q PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF SRDWH IL IRUPDW GLQWUR VLQJXU  UHOD LH VDX GLQWUXQ VLVWHP GH UHOD LL

VWDWLVWLFH$FHVWHUHOD LLSRWILUHOD LLGHLGHQWLWDWHVDXGHWHUPLQLVWHUHOD LLGHFRPSRUWDPHQWUHOD LL

WHKQRORJLFHLUHOD LLLQVWLWX LRQDOH

5HOD LLOHGHLGHQWLWDWHVXQWGHWLSXOHFXD LLORUGHEDODQ IRORVLWHvQ6LVWHPXOGHEDODQ HDOH

HFRQRPLHLQD LRQDOH

5HOD LLOH GH FRPSRUWDPHQW VXQW DFHOH HFXD LL VWRFKDVWLFH FDUH UHIOHFW  L PRGHOHD]  XQ

SURFHV GH OXDUH D GHFL]LHL FDUH vQFHDUF  V  GHVFULH U VSXQVXO YDULDELOHL HQGRJHQH < VXE IRUPD

GHFL]LHL OD XQ VHW GH YDORUL DOH YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH 'H H[HPSOX vQWUXQ PRGHO PDFURHFRQRPLF

UHOD LLOH GH FRPSRUWDPHQW VH UHIHU  OD GHSHQGHQ H SULYLQG FRQVXPXO LQYHVWL LLOH LPSRUWXO L

H[SRUWXOVLVWHPXOGHSUH XULFHUHUHDPRQHWDU HWF

5HOD LLOH WHKQRORJLFH GHVFULX DWkW LPSHUDWLYHOH GH RUGLQ WHKQRORJLF SULYLQG SURGXF LD FkW L

UHOD LLOHWHKQLFRHFRQRPLFHH[LVWHQWHvQSURGXF LHIRU DGHPXQF LIRQGXULOHGHSURGXF LHDOHXQHL

XQLW L DOH XQHL UDPXUL VDX DOH HFRQRPLHL QD LRQDOH $FHVWH UHOD LL WHKQRORJLFH VXQW UHSUH]HQWDWH GH

FXQRVFXWHOHIXQF LLGHSURGXF LHGHGLIHULWHWLSXUL

5HOD LLOH LQVWLWX LRQDOH VXQW IRORVLWH SHQWUX D H[SOLFD vQ PRG GHWHUPLQLVW VDX VWRFKDVWLF

IHQRPHQHOHFDUHVXQWGHWHUPLQDWHILHGHOHJHILHGHWUDGL LHVDXILHGHRELFHLXUL'LQUkQGXODFHVWRUD

IDF SDUWH GH H[HPSOX HFXD LLOH FDUH H[SOLF  VWDELOLUHD LPSR]LWHORU VDX D FRWL]D LLORU vQ IXQF LH GH

YHQLW

7LSRORJLDPRGHOHORUHFRQRPHWULFHHVWHH[WUHPGHYDVW 7RWXLXQPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFSRDWH

IL FRQVWUXLW SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO XQHL VLQJXUH HFXD LL GH FRPSRUWDPHQW WHKQRORJLFH VDX LQVWLWX LRQDOH

VDX FX DMXWRUXO XQXL VLVWHP GH HFXD LL GH JHQXO FHORU SDWUX UHOD LL PHQ LRQDWH PDL VXV GHQXPLWH

PRGHOHFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH
1
7HVWHOH VWDWLVWLFH  VXQW LQVWUXPHQWH GH OXFUX LQGLVSHQVDELOH LQYHVWLJD LHL HFRQRPHWULFH

1HFHVLWDWHD XWLOL] ULL DFHVWRUD HVWH GHWHUPLQDW  GH IDSWXO F  GHPHUVXO HFRQRPHWULF FRQVW  vQWUR

vQLUXLUHORJLF GHLSRWH]HSULYLQGVHPQLILFD LDYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQHDFDOLW LLHVWLPD LLORURE LQXWH

DJUDGXOXLGHSHUIRUPDQ DPRGHOHORUFRQVWUXLWH$FFHSWDUHDVDXUHVSLXQJHUHDLSRWH]HORUIRUPXODWH
2
vQ HFRQRPHWULH VH SRDWH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO PDL PXOWRU WHVWH FHOH PDL X]XDOH ILLQG WHVWXO  WHVWXO W

WHVWXO)HWF

3H OkQJ  DFHVWH WHVWH VWDWLVWLFH vQ SUDFWLFD FXUHQW  vQ GLYHUVH GRPHQLL VH IRORVHWH IUHFYHQW

XQ WHVW GHQXPLW WHVWXO HURULL Q JHQHUDO DSOLFDUHD DFHVWXL WHVW SUHVXSXQH FRPSDUDUHD D GRX 

YDORUL

 YDORDUHDREVHUYDW VDXHVWLPDW 

7 YDORDUHDWHRUHWLF DWHSWDW VDXSURJQR]DW 

3HED]DFHORUGRX YDORULVHGHILQHVF

HURDUHDDEVROXW  H =  -7 
D

 -7
HURDUHDUHODWLY  H =  
U
7

6HFRQVWUXLHVFFHOHGRX LSRWH]H

+3 7

+ 4 7 7
6WDELOLQGXVH DUELWUDU R YDORDUH DEVROXW  (5  VDX UHODWLY  (6   GH HFKLYDODUH D FHORU GRX 

YDORULL7UHJXODGHDOHJHUHGHFL]LHDFHORUGRX LSRWH]HHVWHXUP WRDUHD

 HVWH DFFHSWDW  LSRWH]D +3  GDF  ( H  VDX ( H  FHOH GRX  YDORUL  L 7 VXQW

D D U U

HFKLYDOHQWHDGLF GLIHUHQ HOHGLQWUHHOHVXQWvQWkPSO WRDUHLQXVLVWHPDWLFH


8
 9H]L  LSRWH]  VWDWLVWLF  WHVW HURDUH GH JUDGXO  L JUDGXO  SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH QLYHO GH VHPQLILFD LH  'LF LRQDU

VWDWLVWLFHFRQRPLF'&6%XFXUHWL
9
8QDVWIHOGHWHVWLFULWHULXGHGHFL]LHVHXWLOL]HD] vQFRPHU XOFXSURGXVHvPEXWHOLDWHVDXDPEDODWHSHQWUXFDUHGH

UHJXO FULWHULXOGHGHFL]LHHVWHGH GLQYROXPXOVDXJUHXWDWHD7DDPEDODMXOXL

8
  HVWH DFFHSWDW  LSRWH]D + 4  GDF  ( >H  VDX ( >H  FHOH GRX  YDORUL  L 7 GLIHU 
D D U U

VHPQLILFDWLY L QX SRW IL FRQVLGHUDWH FD HFKLYDOHQWH UHVSHFWLY H[WUDVH GLQ DFHHDL XUQ  VDX GLQWUR

FROHFWLYLWDWHRPRJHQ 

$FHVW WHVW DO HURULL HVWH XWLOL]DW vQ PRG FXUHQW vQ GRPHQLXO DQDOL]HL VWDWLVWLFRHFRQRPLFH D

YDULD LHL vQ WLPS LVDX vQ VSD LX D XQXL IHQRPHQ HFRQRPLF GDU SRDWH IL DSOLFDW L vQ GRPHQLXO

HFRQRPHWULHLGDUFXGLVFHUQ PkQWLQXvQPRGH[FHVLY

/RFXOLUROXOHFRQRPHWULHLvQVLVWHPXOWLLQ HORUHFRQRPLFH

$SDUL LD L UDSLGD DILUPDUH D HFRQRPHWULHL WUHEXLH vQ HOHDV  L H[SOLFDW  SULQ SULVPD

UDSRUWXOXL GLDOHFWLF GLQWUH WHRULH L SUDFWLF  D FRQH[LXQLL LQYHUVH SR]LWLYH FH VH PDQLIHVW  vQWUH

HOHPHQWHOHDFHVWXLUDSRUW

'H]YROWDUHD FRQWLQX  L GLQDPLF  D IRU HORU GH SURGXF LH VXE LPSDFWXO SURJUHVXOXL WLLQ LILF

LWHKQLFPRGLILF FRQGL LLOHLLQWHUGHSHQGHQ HOHGLQSURGXF LHUHSDUWL LHFLUFXOD LHLFRQVXPFHHD

FH SH SODQ WHRUHWLF L SUDFWLF FUHHD]  SUREOHPH GLILFLOH SULYLQG H[SOLFDUHD L GLULMDUHD HYROX LHL

IHQRPHQHORU HFRQRPLFRVRFLDOH F WUH DQXPL L LQGLFDWRUL LQW  IRUPXOD L L XUP UL L GH R DQXPLW 

SROLWLF HFRQRPLF 

1HFHVLWDWHD HODERU ULL XQRU LQVWUXPHQWH GH LQYHVWLJDUH L GH VSRULUH D HILFLHQ HL PHWRGHORU

GH RUJDQL]DUH GLULMDUH L FRQGXFHUH D HFRQRPLHL SH GH R SDUWH L VXFFHVHOH PHWRGHORU VWDWLVWLFR

PDWHPDWLFH vQ DOWH GRPHQLL DOH WLLQ HL  IL]LF  FKLPLH DVWURQRPLH HWF  SH GH DOW  SDUWH DX

GHWHUPLQDWDGRSWDUHDGHF WUHWLLQ HOHHFRQRPLFHDDFHVWRUPHWRGH

(FRQRPHWULD VD IRUPDW L VH GH]YROW  QX vQ XUPD XQXL SURFHV GH GLYHUVLILFDUH D WLLQ HL

HFRQRPLFHFLSULQLQWHJUDUHDGLQWUHWHRULDHFRQRPLF PDWHPDWLF LVWDWLVWLF 

Q FDGUXO DFHDVWHL WULDGH WHRULH HFRQRPLF   PDWHPDWLF   VWDWLVWLF  ORFXO FHQWUDO vO RFXS 

WHRULD HFRQRPLF  'HL SHQHWUDUHD WLLQ HL HFRQRPLFH GH F WUH PHWRGHOH VWDWLVWLFRPDWHPDWLFH

UHSUH]LQW  XQ SURJUHV FDOLWDWLY QX WUHEXLH XLWDW IDSWXO F  IHQRPHQHOH HFRQRPLFH SH OkQJ 

FRPSRQHQWD ORU FXDQWLILFDELO  FRQ LQ DVSHFWH FDUH QX SRW IL UHSUH]HQWDWH SULQ FDQWLWDWH $FHVWH

SDUWLFXODULW L DOH IHQRPHQHORU HFRQRPLFH FRQVWLWXLH vQ JHQHUDO OLPLWHOH HFRQRPHWULHL vQ VLVWHPXO

WLLQ HORUHFRQRPLFH

'H UHPDUFDW F  UDSRUWXULOH HFRQRPHWULHL FX WLLQ HOH HFRQRPLFH QX VXQW QXPDL GH

GHSHQGHQ 

QWUDGHY U XQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF QX VH SRDWH HODERUD GDF  QX VD FRQVWLWXLW R WHRULH

HFRQRPLF  D RELHFWXOXL FHUFHWDW 6LPLOLWXGLQHD VD IRUPDO  FX RELHFWXO HFRQRPLF LQYHVWLJDW GHSLQGH

GH QLYHOXO GH DEVWUDFWL]DUH D WHRULHL GH GHILQLUHD XQLYRF  L RSHUD LRQDO  D QR LXQLORU L FDWHJRULLORU

HFRQRPLFH GH VFRSXULOH XUP ULWH GH WHRULD HFRQRPLF   VFRSXUL HXULVWLFH VDX GH GLULMDUH SULYLQG

RELHFWXOVWXGLDW

0RGHOXO DVWIHO FRQVWUXLW UHSUH]LQW  R YHULJ  LQWHUPHGLDU  vQWUH WHRULH L UHDOLWDWH (O

UHSUH]LQW  R FDOH GH FRQIUXQWDUH D WHRULHL FX SUDFWLFD VLQJXUXO PRG GH H[SHULPHQWDUH SH ED]D

F UXLD WLLQ D HFRQRPLF  vL SRDWH IXQGDPHQWD LSRWH]HOH GLQ PRPHQW FH RELHFWXO V X GH FHUFHWDUH

SRDWHILQXPDLREVHUYDWQXLL]RODWLFHUFHWDWvQODERUDWRU

3ULQ DFHDVW  H[SHULPHQWDUH PLMORFLW  GH PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF WLLQ HOH HFRQRPLFH

YDOLGHD]  UHQXQ  VDX HODERUHD]  PHWRGH QRL vL FRQIUXQW  SUREOHPHOH GH VHPDQWLF  L VHPLRWLF 

HFRQRPLF  vPERJ LQGXL vQ IHOXO DFHVWD VLVWHPXO GH LQIRUPD LL SULYLQG VWUXFWXUD L HYROX LD

RELHFWXOXLHFRQRPLF

Q SUH]HQW WLSRORJLD PHWRGHORU HFRQRPHWULFH XWLOL]DWH GH WLLQ HOHHFRQRPLFHHVWHH[WUHPGH

YDVW  )RORVLUHD GLQ FH vQ FH PDL DPSO  D DFHVWRU PRGHOH OD LQYHVWLJDUHDIHQRPHQHORUHFRQRPLFHVH

GDWRUHD] SURJUHVHORUvQVHPQDWHI FXWHvQGRPHQLXOPHWRGHORUGHHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOHORU

L DO WHVWHORU GH YHULILFDUH SH FDUH VH IXQGDPHQWHD]  DFHVWHD L QX vQ XOWLPXO UkQG DO XWLOL] ULL

FDOFXODWRDUHORU HOHFWURQLFH FDUH SHUPLW UH]ROYDUHD RSHUDWLY  D FHORU PDL FRPSOH[H PRGHOH

HFRQRPHWULFH

9
 3DUWLFXODUL]kQG OHJ WXULOH HFRQRPHWULHL FX XQHOH GLQWUH GLVFLSOLQHOH HFRQRPLFH HVWH QHFHVDU

V  VXEOLQLHP FRUHVSRQGHQ D GLQWUH PRGHODUHD HFRQRPHWULF  L SUHYL]LXQH 3UHYL]LXQHD PDFUR VDX

PLFURHFRQRPLF  UHSUH]LQW  XQ GRPHQLX FDUH XWLOL]HD]  vQ PDUH P VXU  UH]XOWDWHOH VLPXO ULL L PDL

DOHV DOH SUHGLF LHL HFRQRPHWULFH $FWLYLWDWHD GH SUHYL]LXQH D HFRQRPLHL HVWH DFHHD FDUH RIHU  R

VHULH GH HOHPHQWH XWLOH HODERU ULL PRGHOXOXL SULYLQG vQGHRVHEL HWDSD GH VSHFLILFDUH D DFHVWXLD Q

DFHDVW  HWDS  SUHYL]LXQHD GHILQHWH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH UH]XOWDWLYH L SDFKHWXO YDULDELOHORU

H[RJHQH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH RELHFWLYHORU XUP ULWH vQ IXQF LH GH LQIRUPD LLOH VWDWLVWLFH H[LVWHQWH

(FRQRPHWULD OD UkQGXO HL FRQWULEXLH OD RE LQHUHD YDULDQWHORU HFRQRPLFH RIHULQG LQIRUPD LL FX

SULYLUH OD FRPSRUWDPHQWXO YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH vQ GLYHUVH DOWHUQDWLYH GH DF LRQDUH D SkUJKLLORU

HFRQRPLFH Q DFHVW IHO SUHYL]LXQLL HFRQRPLFH L VH RIHU  R SHUVSHFWLY  vQ OHJ WXU  FX FHHD FH VDU

SXWHD vQWkPSOD vQ YLLWRU ILH L vQ OLQLL PDUL vQ UDSRUW FX GLIHULWHOH YDULDQWH DOH SROLWLFLL HFRQRPLFH

FDUHDUSXWHDILDSOLFDWH

0HQ LRQ P GH DVHPHQHD OHJ WXUD HFRQRPHWULHL FX VLVWHPXO ILQDQFLDUFRQWDELO GRPHQLX vQ

FDUHPRGHODUHDS WUXQGHWRWPDLPXOWYH]LPRGHOHOH$5&+'HDVHPHQHDWUHEXLHUHPDUFDWIDSWXO

F  OD HODERUDUHD PRGHOHORU HFRQRPHWULFH VH UHFRPDQG  FX R WRW PDL PDUH LQVLVWHQ  LQWURGXFHUHD

UHOD LLORU ILQDQFLDUEDQFDUH FD ILLQG GHRVHELW GH VHPQLILFDWLYH SHQWUX GHVFULHUHD PHFDQLVPHORU

HFRQRPLFH

'RPHQLXO FRRSHU ULL HFRQRPLFH LQWHUQD LRQDOH FDGHDOWIHOLFHOSULYLQGFRPHU XOLQWHULRU

GRPHQLX vQ FDUH SUHYL]LXQLOH VXQW JUHX GH UHDOL]DW DOWIHO GHFkW FX DMXWRUXO PHWRGHORU VWDWLVWLFH

UHSUH]LQW GHDVHPHQHDVHFWRDUHDOHHFRQRPLHLFHSRWEHQHILFLDGHUH]XOWDWHOHHFRQRPHWULHLvQFHHD

FH SULYHWH SODQLILFDUHD L HILFLHQWL]DUHD DFWLYLW LORU GHVI XUDWH (VWH WRWRGDW  QHFHVDU V  VXEOLQLHP

IUHFYHQ D WRW PDL PDUH D DSOLF ULL PHWRGHORU HFRQRPHWULFH vQ OXFU UL GLQ GRPHQLXO ELRORJLHL

PHGLFLQHLGHPRJUDILHLLvQVSHFLDOvQGRPHQLXOPDUNHWLQJXOXLPDQDJHPHQWXOXLVDXYLLWRURORJLHL

Q FRQFOX]LH VH SRDWH UH LQH LGHHD F  PHWRGD HFRQRPHWULHL HVWH PHWRGD PRGHO ULL VDX

PHWRGD PRGHOHORU 0RGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF  H[SUHVLH IRUPDO  LQGXFWLY  D XQHL OHJLW L HFRQRPLFH 

UHSUH]LQW  XQ PLMORF GH FXQRDWHUH D XQXL RELHFW HFRQRPLF LDU PRGHODUHD HFRQRPHWULF  HVWH R

PHWRG  FDUH FRQGXFH OD RE LQHUHD GH FXQRWLLQ H VDX LQIRUPD LL QRL SULYLQG VWDUHD VWUXFWXUD

FRQH[LXQLOHGLQWUHHOHPHQWHLHYROX LDXQXLSURFHVVDXVLVWHPHFRQRPLF

%,%/,2*5$),(

%DURQ7%LML(LFROHFWLY6WDWLVWLF WHRUHWLF LHFRQRPLF (GLWXUD'LGDFWLF L3HGDJRJLF 

%XFXUHWL

*LUDXG5&KDL[1eFRQRPpWULH38)3DULV
: ;
*XMDUDWL51%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

/DEURXVVH&,QWURGXFWLRQDOpFRQRPpWULH'XQRG3DULV

3HFLFDQ(7 Q VRLX2(FRQRPHWULHOLWR$6(%XFXUHWL

7UHELFL90LF HQFLFORSHGLHGHVWDWLVWLF (GLWXUDWLLQ LILF L(QFLFORSHGLF %XFXUHWL

9DQJUHYHOLQJKH*eFRQRPpWULH+HUPDQQ&ROOHFWLRQ0pWKRGHV3DULV

 'LF LRQDUVWDWLVWLFHFRQRPLF'&6%XFXUHWL

10
 &DSLWROXO,,

3ULQFLSDOHOHWLSXULGHPRGHOHHFRQRPHWULFHXWLOL]DWHvQ

HFRQRPLH


'HVFULHUHDHFRQRPHWULF DGHSHQGHQ HORULLQWHUGHSHQGHQ HORUGLQWUH

IHQRPHQHOHHFRQRPLFH

7HRULD HFRQRPLF  VWXGLD]  IHQRPHQHOH L SURFHVHOH HFRQRPLFH SRUQLQG GH OD SUHPLVD F 

DFHVWHD QX VH GHVI RDU  OD vQWkPSODUH FL SH ED]D XQRU OHJL SURSULL UHODWLY VWDELOH L UHODWLY

UHSHWDELOHVSHFLILFHQDWXULLDFHVWRUIHQRPHQH

'HRDUHFH IHQRPHQHOH GLQ HFRQRPLH VXQW vQ JHQHUDO FXDQWLILFDELOH OHJLOH HFRQRPLFH SRW IL

GHVFULVH VXE IRUPD XQRU OHJ WXUL FDQWLWDWLYH D XQRU GHWHUPLQ UL QXPHULFH vQWUH DFHVWH IHQRPHQH

$FHVWIDSWIDFHSRVLELO XWLOL]DUHDVWDWLVWLFLLLPDWHPDWLFLLGHF WUHWHRULDHFRQRPLF 

Q SOXV VXFFHVHOH GHRVHELWH RE LQXWH GH DVWURQRPLH SULQ XWLOL]DUHD PHWRGHORU VWDWLVWLFR

PDWHPDWLFHGHVFRSHULUHDSODQHWHL1HSWXQvQFDXUPDUHDFDOFXOHORUHIHFWXDWHGHDVWURQRPXO

IUDQFH] 8UEDLQ GH 9HUULHU  VDX D SODQHWHL 3OXWRQ vQ  vQ XUPD FDOFXOHORU HIHFWXDWH

vQ  GH DVWURQRPXO DPHULFDQ 3HUFLYDO /RZHOO  HWF  DX FRQYLQV HFRQRPLWLL GH

XWLOLWDWHDLQHFHVLWDWHDDGRSW ULLDFHVWRUPHWRGHDGRSWDUHMXVWLILFDW GHFHOSX LQGRX PRWLYH

 $WkWIHQRPHQHOHDVWURQRPLFHFkWLIHQRPHQHOHHFRQRPLFHQXSRWILGHFkWREVHUYDWHHOHQX

SRW IL QLFL L]RODWH GLQ PHGLXO UHDO L QLFL UHSURGXVH vQ ODERUDWRU SHQWUX D IL FHUFHWDWH vQ FXUVXO XQRU

H[SHULHQ HFRQWURODWH

 Q HFRQRPLH DF LRQHD]  DQXPLWH OHJL DVHP Q WRDUH SULQ IRUPXODUHD ORU FX OHJLOH FH VH

PDQLIHVW  vQ DOWH GRPHQLL DOH WLLQ HL  IL]LF  FKLPLH DVWURQRPLH HWF ,VWRULD GRFWULQHORU JkQGLULL

HFRQRPLFHUHOHY XUP WRDUHOHH[HPSOHvQDFHVWVHQVFXPDUIL

 OHJHDOXL0DOWKXVvQOXPHSURGXF LDDJULFRO FUHWHvQSURJUHVLHDULWPHWLF LDUSRSXOD LDvQ

SURJUHVLHJHRPHWULF 

 OHJLOHOXL(QJHO DWXQFLFkQGYHQLWXOQD LRQDOFUHWHvQWUR DU GH]YROWDW 

D FKHOWXLHOLOHDOLPHQWDUHFUHVFvQWURSURSRU LHPDLPLF 

E FKHOWXLHOLOHSHQWUXvPEU F PLQWHFUHVFvQDFHHDLSURSRU LH

F FKHOWXLHOLOH SHQWUX EXQXUL GH IRORVLQ  vQGHOXQJDW  FUHVF vQWUR SURSRU LH PDL

PDUH

 OHJHDOXL3DUHWRGHVFULHSRODUL]DUHDYHQLWXULORUUHVSHFWLYXQQXP UWRWPDLPDUHGHORFXLWRUL

DXYHQLWXULPLFLLDUXQQXP UWRWPDLPLFGHORFXLWRULDXYHQLWXULIRDUWHPDUL

$
\ =

[

XQGH

[ YHQLWXOIDPLOLLORU



/HJLOHOXL(QJHODXIRVWIRUPXODUL]DWHGH7|UQTXLVWSULQLQWHUPHGLXOXUP WRDUHORUPRGHOH

[
D \ = D + X 
[ +E

[ -F
E \ = D + X 
[ +E

[ -F
F \ = D[ + X 
[ +E

XQGH\ FKHOWXLHOLOHIDPLOLLORU[ YHQLWXOIDPLOLLORUDEF SDUDPHWULLPRGHOHORU

X YDULDELODDOHDWRDUH

11
 \  QXP UXO IDPLOLLORU DO F URU YHQLW HVWH PDL PDUH VDX HJDO FX YHQLWXO

[
N
 \ = 1 ([ [
N
) 

$D SDUDPHWULLIXQF LHL

)DSWXO F  R VHULH GLQ DFHVWH IRUPXO UL DX IRVW FULWLFDWH UHIRUPXODWH VDX GH]YROWDWH GH WHRULD

HFRQRPLF  LQWHUHVHD]  PDL SX LQ vQ FD]XO GH ID  7UHEXLH DSUHFLDW  LQWHQ LD DXWRULORU GH D RIHUL

GHVFULHUL ULJXURDVH OLSVLWH GH DPELJXLW L FX SRVLELOLW L RSHUD LRQDOH SULYLQG H[SOLFDUHD UHJODUHD L

GLULMDUHDIXQF LRQ ULLPHFDQLVPHORUHFRQRPLFH

([LVWHQ D RELHFWLY  D DFHVWRU OHJ WXUL OHJL HFRQRPLFH UHODWLY VWDELOH L UHODWLY UHSHWDELOH

GLQWUHIHQRPHQHOHLSURFHVHOHFHIRUPHD] XQVLVWHPHFRQRPLFUHSUH]LQW VXSRUWXOWHRUHWLFSHFDUH

HFRQRPHWULD vL IXQGDPHQWHD]  UHIOHFWDUHD IRUPDO  D DFHVWRUD $FHVWH OHJ WXUL SRW IL GHVFULVH FX

DMXWRUXOPHWRGHORUVWDWLVWLFRPDWHPDWLFH

Q GRPHQLXO HFRQRPLF GHL H[LVW  R PDUH GLYHUVLWDWH GH PRGHOHOH PRGHODUHD DFHVWRUD OD

RULFHQLYHOPLFURVDXPDFURHFRQRPLFVHSRDWHLQWHUSUHWDFXDMXWRUXOXUP WRDUHLVFKHPH

; ^ 6 `<

) LJ X UD   


XQGH

< \  YROXPXOLHLULORUGLQVLVWHP L =  Q 

; [ IDFWRULLFDOLWDWLYLLFDQWLWDWLYLFDUHLQIOXHQ HD] LHLULOH\   M =  P 

6 VWUXFWXUDVLVWHPXOXLSULQLQWHUPHGLXOF UHLDIDFWRULL[ GHWHUPLQ LHLULOH\  

'DF QHUHIHULPODXQSURFHVGHSURGXF LHGHH[HPSOXDQDOL]DHFRQRPLF HIHFWXDW SHED]D

VFKHPHL GH PDL VXV HYLGHQ LD]  IDSWXO F  LQGLFDWRULL GH UH]XOWDWH \  4    YROXPXO SURGXF LHL

JOREDOHPDUI VDXQHWHGHSLQGDWkWGHYROXPXOLQDWXUDIDFWRULORUGHSURGXF LHUHVSHFWLYYROXPXO

L FDOLWDWHD RELHFWHORU PXQFLL 0 YROXPXO L QLYHOXO WHKQLF DO PLMORDFHORU GH PXQF  . QXP UXO

H[SHULHQ DLQLYHOXOGHLQVWUXLUHDOIRU HLGHPXQF /FkWLGHPRGXOORUGHLQWHUDF LXQHvQFDGUXO

VWUXFWXULLWHKQLFHRUJDQL]DWRULFHDSURFHVXOXLGHSURGXF LH

&XQRDWHUHD OHJLW LL GH YDULD LH vQ WLPS VDX vQ VSD LX D XQXL LQGLFDWRU GH HIHFW HFRQRPLF vQ

IXQF LHGHYDULD LDIDFWRULORUFXDQWLILFDELOLVHSRDWHIDFHIRORVLQGGRX PRGHOHGHOXFUX

D 3ULPXOFHOPDLIUHFYHQWXWLOL]DWLvQSUH]HQWvOFRQVWLWXLHPRGHOXOGHWHUPLQLVWFDUHUHIOHFW 

OHJ WXUD IXQF LRQDO  GLQWUH HOHPHQWHOH GH LQWUDUH L GH LHLUH DOH VLVWHPXOXL  YDULDELOHOH H[RJHQH L

YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH 3H ED]D GHILQL LLORU IRUPXODWH GH WHRULD HFRQRPLF  FX SULYLUH OD HOHPHQWHOH

RELHFWXOXL UHVSHFWLY VWDWLVWLFD HFRQRPLF  XWLOL]kQG PHWRGH SURSULL H[SULP  SULQWUXQ VLVWHP GH

LQGLFDWRUL HOHPHQWHOH FXDQWLILFDELOH DOH VLVWHPXOXL HFRQRPLF 3H ED]D SDUDPHWULORU GH SHUIRUPDQ 

DL VLVWHPXOXL VDX DL LQGLFDWRULORU GH HILFLHQ  D IDFWRULORU GH SURGXF LH VH FRQVWUXLHVF PRGHOH

HFRQRPHWULFH GHWHUPLQLVWH vQWUH HIHFWH L HIRUWXUL H[SOLFkQGXVH YDULD LD YDULDELOHORU IDFWRULDOH L D

LQGLFDWRULORUGHSHUIRUPDQ VDXGHHILFLHQ DOHDFHVWRUD

$VWIHOvQFD]XOXQXLSURFHVGHSURGXF LHVHGHILQHVF

4
 FRQVXPXOVSHFLILF F = 4 F0     
0

4
 SURGXFWLYLWDWHDPXQFLL Z = 4 Z/    
/

4
 HILFLHQ DIRQGXULORUIL[H H = 4 H.    
.

3H ED]D PRGHOHORU GHWHUPLQLVWH   L  GH H[HPSOX SULQ RSHUD LL VLPSOH

VHSRWRE LQHPRGHOHGHWHUPLQLVWHFHFRQ LQWUHLLSDWUXIDFWRUL

$VWIHOSHED]DUHOD LLORULVHRE LQH

12
 Z / =H . 

.
Z = H 
/

Z = H I         

.
XQGH I = UHSUH]LQW vQ]HVWUDUHDWHKQLF DPXQFLL
/

5HOD LDGHYLQH

4 =Z / = H I /       

Q FD]XO XQXL DQVDPEOX GH L XQLW L VDX UDPXUL HFRQRPLFH UHOD LD  VH vQVXPHD] 
   
 4
=
 H I /
$FHDVW UHOD LHvQPXO LW FXWHUPHQXO / / VHWUDQVIRUP vQ


   /     

 4 =
 H I 
 / =
 /
 H I J   

 /

  
XQGH J = /
 / UHSUH]LQW VWUXFWXUDIRU HLGHPXQF 

0RGHOXOUHIOHFW GHSHQGHQ DGHWHUPLQLVW GLQWUHHIHFWXOHFRQRPLF4LFHOHWUHLJUXSH

GHIDFWRULXWLOL]DWHGHDQDOL]DHFRQRPLF IDFWRULFDOLWDWLYLVWUXFWXUDOLLFDQWLWDWLYL

QJHQHUDOXQPRGHOGHWHUPLQLVWVHH[SULP SULQUHOD LD

\ I[VDX\ I[ [
       

0RGHOHOH GHWHUPLQLVWH VH XWLOL]HD]  FXUHQW vQ SUDFWLFD HFRQRPLF  OD DQDOL]D SH IDFWRUL D

YDULD LHL vQ WLPS VDX VSD LX D PXOWRU IHQRPHQH HFRQRPLFH Q DFHVW VFRS PRGHOXO GHWHUPLQLVW

UHSUH]LQW VXSRUWXOWHRUHWLFDODSOLF ULLPHWRGHLLQGLFLORUWHULWRULDOLVDXGLQDPLFLPHWRG DOHF UHL

DYDQWDMHLOLPLWHVXQWELQHFXQRVFXWHHFRQRPLWLORU

E $O GRLOHD PRGHO GH OXFUX HVWH UHSUH]HQWDW GH PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF  vQ VHQVXO GHILQLULL

UHVWULFWLYH D HFRQRPHWULHL  FDUH IXQGDPHQWkQGXVH SH PHWRGD UHJUHVLHL PHWRG  VSHFLILF 

VWDWLVWLFLL GHVFULH OHJ WXUD VWDWLVWLF  VDX VWRFKDVWLF  GLQWUH LQWU ULOH VLVWHPXOXL  IDFWRULL GH

LQIOXHQ ;LLHLULOHDFHVWXLDYDULDELOHOHUH]XOWDWLYH<FXDMXWRUXOXQXLPRGHODOHDWRU

< I;8       

$FHVWSURFHGHXVHED]HD] SHSULQFLSLXOFXWLHLQHJUHSULQFLSLXFLEHUQHWLFFDUHvQHFRQRPLH

VH IRORVHWH DWXQFL FkQG GHVFULHUHD IRUPDO  D VWUXFWXULL VLVWHPXOXL HVWH LQDFFHVLELO  GLQ FDX]D

LPSRVLELOLW LL RE LQHULL LQIRUPD LLORU QHFHVDUH VDX FkQG RE LQHUHD DFHVWRU LQIRUPD LL DU QHFHVLWD

FKHOWXLHOLH[FHVLYHFDUHQXVHMXVWLILF SULQDSRUWXOvQFXQRDWHUHSHFDUHvOUHDOL]HD] 

6SUH GHRVHELUH GH PRGHOXO GHWHUPLQLVW  DFFHSWDW I U  UH]HUYH GH WHRULD L SUDFWLFD

HFRQRPLF  PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF  LQWURGXFH vQ VFKHPD GH GHVFULHUH DOHJLW LLGHPDQLIHVWDUH

DXQXLIHQRPHQVDXSURFHVHFRQRPLFLRYDULDELO DOHDWRDUHVDXvQWkPSO WRDUH8

$SDUHQW DFHDVW  PRGDOLWDWH GH IRUPDOL]DUH D OHJ WXULORU GLQWUH IHQRPHQHOH HFRQRPLFH DU

FRQWUD]LFH WHRULD HFRQRPLF   IHQRPHQHOH QX VH SURGXF OD vQWkPSODUH FL SH ED]D XQRU OHJL SURSULL

LQHUHQWH ORU  DD FXP VD DILUPDW OD vQFHSXWXO DFHVWXL FDSLWRO $FHDVW  LQWHUSUHWDUH HVWH LQH[DFW 

$FFHSWDUHDLQWURGXFHULLYDULDELOHLDOHDWRDUHvQYHGHUHDH[SOLF ULLOHJLW LLGHYDULD LHDXQXLIHQRPHQ

HFRQRPLFFRQFUHWHVWHFHUXW GHXQXOGLQPRWLYHOHGHPDLMRV

 DSDUL LD L YDULD LD vQ WLPS VDX VSD LX D XQXL IHQRPHQ HFRQRPLF HVWH GHWHUPLQDW  GH XQ

VLVWHP QXPHURV GH IDFWRUL FDOLWDWLYL L FDQWLWDWLYL ,PSRVLELOLWDWHD FXDQWLILF ULL DQXPLWRU IDFWRUL

SUHFXP L GLILFXOW LOH ULGLFDWH GH UH]ROYDUHD XQRU PRGHOH FX PXOWH YDULDELOH IDFWRULDOH FRQGXF OD R

VSHFLILFDUH IRUPDO  LQFRPSOHW  GLQ SXQFW GH YHGHUH HFRQRPLF D RELHFWXOXL LQYHVWLJDW $FHDVW 

VSHFLILFDUHIRUPDO LQFRPSOHW HVWHFRUHFWDW LYL]XDOL]DW FXDMXWRUXOYDULDELOHLDOHDWRDUH8

 OHJ WXUD FDX] HIHFW QX SRDWH IL FHUFHWDW  vQ PRG QHPLMORFLW vQ ODERUDWRU DD FXP

SURFHGHD]  WLLQ HOH WHKQLFH GHRDUHFH RELHFWXO HFRQRPLF LQYHVWLJDW QX SRDWH IL L]RODW H[WUDV GLQ

PHGLXO HFRQRPLF FL QXPDL REVHUYDW SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO GDWHORU VWDWLVWLFH 3H ED]D DFHVWRUD SULQ

LQWHUPHGLXO XQXL PRGHO VWDWLVWLFRPDWHPDWLF OHJ WXUD RELHFWLY  HVWH HVWLPDW  DSUR[LPDW  SULQ

PLMORFLUHDLQIRUPD LHLVWDWLVWLFH

13
  GH IRDUWH PXOWH RUL GDWHOH VWDWLVWLFH SURYLQ GLQ REVHUY UL VHOHFWLYH VHULLOH FURQRORJLFH

DYkQG GH DVHPHQHD DFHDVW  SDUWLFXODULWDWH GLQ VRQGDMH DOHDWRDUH FDUH LPSULP  WXWXURU

LQGLFDWRULORUFHUFHWD LSHED]DORUDFHDVW SDUWLFXODULWDWHVWDWLVWLF 

3HQWUX D MXVWLILFD FRQFUHW QHFHVLWDWHD IRORVLULL YDULDELOHL DOHDWRDUH 8 vQ FDGUXO XQXL PRGHO

HFRQRPHWULF FkW L GDWRULW  XQRU LQDGYHUWHQ H FH VH vQWkOQHVF vQ SUDFWLF  GDWRULW  XWLOL] ULL XQRU

PRGHOH GH UHJUHVLH vQ ORFXO PRGHOHORU HFRQRPLFH GHWHUPLQLVWH YD IL DERUGDW  VXFFLQW DFHDVW 

SUREOHP 

'H IRDUWH PXOWH RUL VH VWXGLD]  OHJ WXUD GLQWUH XQ LQGLFDWRU DO SURGXF LHL 4 L

SURGXFWLYLWDWHD PXQFLL Z VDX GLQWUH SURGXFWLYLWDWHD L vQ]HVWUDUHD WHKQLF  D PXQFLL I FX DMXWRUXO

XQHLIXQF LLGHUHJXO GHIRUPD4 DEZVDXZ DEI

7HRULD HFRQRPLF  D IRUPXODW GHSHQGHQ D GLQWUH YDULDELOHOH GH PDL VXV SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO

PRGHOHORUGHWHUPLQLVWH4 Z/LUHVSHFWLY: HIQFRPSDUD LHFXDFHVWHDPRGHOHOH

4  D  EZ L Z  D  EI VXQW DIHFWDWH GH HURUL GH VSHFLILFDUH L GH LGHQWLILFDUH (URDUHD GH

VSHFLILFDUH HVWH UHSUH]HQWDW  DWkW GH QHJOLMDUHD IDFWRUXOXL /  IRU D GH PXQF  VDX D HILFLHQ HL

IRQGXULORUIL[HFkWLGHIDSWXOF SDUDPHWULLPRGHOHORUYRUILFDOFXOD LSULQHVWLPD LLVWDWLVWLFHFDV 

QX PDL DPLQWLP GH IDSWXO F  GH FHOH PDL PXOWH RUL GDWHOH VWDWLVWLFH SURYLQ GLQWUXQ VRQGDM

9L]XDOL]DUHD L LQWHUSUHWDUHD FRUHFW  D OHJ WXULL GLQWUH YDULDELOHOH UHVSHFWLYH LPSXQH VSHFLILFDUHD

YDULDELOHORUDOHDWRDUHvQFDGUXOPRGHOHORUHFRQRPHWULFH

5HIHULWRU OD HURDUHD GH LGHQWLILFDUH DFHDVWD FRQVW  vQ DOHJHUHD JUHLW  D IXQF LHL PDWHPDWLFH

)XQF LD 4  D EZDUDW F GDF Z DWXQFL4 DFHHDFHUHSUH]LQW RDEHUD LHHFRQRPLF Q

DVWIHOGHVLWXD LLPRGHOXOYDWUHEXLV ILHGHIRUPD\ E[X

3ULQFLSDOHOHWLSXULGHPRGHOHHFRQRPHWULFHXWLOL]DWHvQHFRQRPLH

Q PRPHQWXO DFWXDO WLSRORJLD PRGHOHORU HFRQRPHWULFH HVWH H[WUHP GH GLYHUVLILFDW  WRWXL vQ

IXQF LHGHDQXPLWHFULWHULLGHFODVLILFDUHHOHVHSRWvQFDGUDvQFkWHYDWLSXULVDXFODVHSULQFLSDOH

0RGHOHXQLIDFWRULDOHLPRGHOHPXOWLIDFWRULDOH

PS U LUHD PRGHOHORU vQ DFHVWH GRX  FODVH HVWH I FXW  DD FXP LQGLF  L GHQXPLUHD ORU vQ

IXQF LH GH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU IDFWRULDOH IRORVLWH vQ YHGHUHD H[SOLF ULL VLPXO ULL VDX SURJQR]HL

YDULDELOHORUGHSHQGHQWH

0RGHOXO XQLIDFWRULDO \  I[  X HVWH IRORVLW vQ PRG IUHFYHQW OD PRGHODUHD IHQRPHQHORU

HFRQRPLFH GDWRULW  DYDQWDMHORU SH FDUH OH SUH]LQW  VLPSOLWDWH RSHUDWLYLWDWH L FRVW UHGXV SHQWUX

RE LQHUHD OXL 8WLOL]DUHD XQXL DVWIHO GH PRGHO VH IXQGDPHQWHD]  SH LSRWH]D F  vQ UkQGXO IDFWRULORU

YDULDELOHL UH]XOWDWLYH \ H[LVW  XQ IDFWRU GHWHUPLQDQW [ FHLODO L IDFWRUL FX H[FHS LD DFHVWXLD ILH DX R

LQIOXHQ  vQWkPSO WRDUH DFHWLD ILLQG VSHFLILFD L vQ PRGHO SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO YDULD LHL UH]LGXDOH X ILH

DXIRVWLQYDULDELOLvQSHULRDGDDQDOL]DW LFDDWDUHQXDUHVHQVVSHFLILFDUHDORUvQPRGHO

'DF  LSRWH]D GH PDL VXV QX SRDWH IL DFFHSWDW  FD] IUHFYHQW vQ GRPHQLXO HFRQRPLF VH

FRQVWUXLHWH XQ PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO GH IRUPD \  I[  [

 [   X M =  Q  XQGH N  QXP UXO

YDULDELOHORUIDFWRULDOH

0RGHOXO PXOWLIDFWRULDO HOLPLQkQG GHILFLHQ D PRGHOXOXL XQLIDFWRULDO WUDQVIRUP  vQV 

DYDQWDMHOH DFHVWXLD vQ GH]DYDQWDMH 'LQ DFHVW PRWLY VH UHFRPDQG  FD vQ SUDFWLF  V  QX VH

IRORVHDVF XQPRGHOFXPDLPXOWGHWUHLVDXSDWUXYDULDELOHIDFWRULDOH

7RDWH PRGHOHOH HFRQRPHWULFH IRORVLWH SkQ  vQ SUH]HQW SRW ILvQFDGUDWHvQWUXQDGLQWUHDFHVWH

FODVH'LQFDWHJRULDPRGHOHORUXQLIDFWRULDOHGHPQHGHPHQ LRQDWVXQW

 OHJHD FHUHULL  &  IS  X XQGH & YROXPXOFHUHULLXQXLSURGXVLDUS SUH XOXQLWDUDO

SURGXVXOXL

OHJHDRIHUWHL2 ISXXQGH2 YROXPXORIHUWHL

14
  PRGHOXO FRQVXPXOXL  &   I9  X XQGH &    FRQVXPXO XQXL SURGXV L LDU 9  YHQLWXO

XQHLIDPLOLL

 PRGHOXO FKHOWXLHOLORU GH SURGXF LH &K vQ IXQF LH GH YROXPXO SURGXF LHL 4 &K  I4 

X

 PRGHOXO OHJLL LPSR]LWXOXL , SH YHQLW 9  ,  I9  X YDULDELOD DOHDWRDUH X VHPQLILFkQG

DEDWHUHD GH OD GHSHQGHQ D IXQF LRQDO  D LPSR]LWXOXL SH YHQLWXO VDODULD LORU FDXUPDUHDXQRUP VXUL

GHSROLWLF VRFLDO 

6WUXFWXUDO PRGHOHOH PXOWLIDFWRULDOH VXQW GH R PDUH GLYHUVLWDWH &D UHJXO  JHQHUDO  HOH VH

FRQVWUXLHVF SULQ GH]YROWDUHD PRGHOXOXL XQLIDFWRULDO DO YDULDELOHL H[SOLFDWH \ 3H OkQJ  YDULDELOD

IDFWRULDO  LQL LDO  [  VH LQWURGXF ILH DOWH YDULDELOH H[RJHQH [

 [  [  ILH YDORUL GHFDODWH DOH

DFHVWRUD[  [   [    

0RGHOHOLQLDUHLPRGHOHQHOLQLDUH

&ODVDDFHVWRUPRGHOHHVWHGHILQLW GHIRUPDOHJ WXULLGLQWUHYDULDELODUH]XOWDWLY LYDULDELOHOH

IDFWRULDOH 6XE IRUP  JHQHUDO  XQ PRGHO OLQLDU PXOWLIDFWRULDO VH SUH]LQW DVWIHO\ E  E [ E
[

 X 0RGHOHOH QHOLQLDUH VH LGHQWLILF  FX DMXWRUXO IXQF LLORU QHOLQLDUH FXP DU IL  IXQF LD

H[SRQHQ LDO KLSHUERO IXQF LDORJLVWLF SDUDERO HWF

'HRDUHFHFHOHGRX JUXSHGHPRGHOHSRVHG SDUWLFXODULW LVSHFLILFHQHYRPUHIHULODFkWHYD

GLQWUHHOHSRUQLQGGHODXQFD]FRQFUHWFDUHGHDOWIHODLJHQHUDWUHOHYDUHDDFHVWRUD

$VWIHO DQDOL]D OHJ WXULL GLQWUH FRQVXPXO XQXL DQXPLW SURGXV L YHQLWXO XQHL IDPLOLL VH SRDWH

IDFHFXDMXWRUXOXQRUPRGHOHGHIRUPD

& DE9XPRGHOOLQLDU
    

   & D9 XPRGHOQHOLQLDU     

$FHVW PRGHO SRDWH IL WUDQVIRUPDW SULQORJDULWPDUHvQWUXQPRGHOOLQLDUvQWUHORJDULWPLLFHORU

GRX YDULDELOHH[LVWkQGUHOD LD

ORJ& ORJDEORJ9ORJX    

 XQGH

& FKHOWXLHOLOHPHGLLGHFRQVXPSHRIDPLOLH

9 YHQLWXOPHGLXSHRIDPLOLH

6D FRQVWDWDW vQV  F  PRGHOXO OLQLDU  SUH]LQW  FkWHYD QHDMXQVXUL 3ULPXO VH UHIHU  OD

IDSWXOF DQXPLWHHOHPHQWHGHFRQVXPQXVHPRGLILF vQPRGOLQLDUFXHYROX LDYHQLWXULORUIDPLOLHL

XQHOHSUH]LQW XQDQXPLWQLYHOGHVDWXUD LHSURGXVHOHDOLPHQWDUHvQVSHFLDOLDUDOWHOHDXRH[LVWHQ 

SDVDJHU  $O GRLOHD QHDMXQV vO FRQVWLWXLH FRHILFLHQWXO GH HODVWLFLWDWH FDUH HVWH YDULDELO L GLIHULW GH

FRHILFLHQWXOGHUHJUHVLH

6H WLH F  vQ FD]XO XQXL PRGHO OLQLDU FRHILFLHQWXO GH UHJUHVLH HVWH UHSUH]HQWDW GH SDUDPHWULL

YDULDELOHORUIDFWRULDOH6HPQXOFRHILFLHQWXOXLLQGLF VHQVXOOHJ WXULLE!OHJ WXU GLUHFW E

OHJ WXU  LQYHUV  LDU P ULPHD OXL HVWH P VXUD YDULD LHL OXL \ OD R PRGLILFDUH FXRXQLWDWHDYDULDELOHL

IDFWRULDOH&RHILFLHQWXOGHHODVWLFLWDWHVHGHILQHWHDVWIHO

G& G9 D
F =  =-      
& 9 D + E9

$FHVWD GLIHU  L HO vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWUXO E 3HQWUX XQ QLYHO DO OXL & GDW F  GHSLQGH GH

P ULPHDYHQLWXOXL'DF D!LE!DWXQFLF 

'HRDUHFHvQSUDFWLF HUDGHGRULWV VHGLVSXQ GHRHODVWLFLWDWHFRQVWDQW DFRQVXPXOXLVDX

DFHUHULLvQUDSRUWFXYHQLWXOIDPLOLHLVDXFXSUH XOSURGXVXOXLVDUHFXUVODPRGHOXO

QDFHVWFD]FHLGRLFRHILFLHQ LVXQWHJDOLE FHLFRQVWDQ LSHQWUXXQDQXPLWHOHPHQWGH

FRQVXP VHPQXO L P ULPHD ORU RIHULQG LQIRUPD LL QHFHVDUH DQDOL]HL HFRQRPLFH D UDSRUWXOXL FHUHUH

RIHUW vQVHQVXOXUP WRU

 GDF  E  FHUHUHD VDX FRQVXPXO SURGXVXOXL UHVSHFWLY WLQGH V  GLVSDU  GH SH SLD  VDX GLQ

FRQVXPXOSRSXOD LHL

GDF EFHUHUHDVDXFRQVXPXOSURGXVXOXLWLQGHVSUHXQDQXPLWSUDJGHVDWXUD LH

 GDF  E!  FHUHUHD VDX FRQVXPXO SURGXVXOXL QX VXQW VDWLVI FXWH VDX QX DGPLW XQ QLYHO GH

VDWXUD LH

15
 

0RGHOHSDU LDOHLPRGHOHJOREDOHDJUHJDWH

$FHVWH PRGHOH UH]XOW  vQ XUPD FODVLILF ULL PRGHOHORU HFRQRPHWULFH vQ UDSRUW GH VIHUD ORU GH

FXSULQGHUH ,QFOXGHUHD XQXL DQXPLW PRGHO vQ FODVD PRGHOHORU SDU LDOH VDX JOREDOH HVWH UHODWLY 

5HIHULQGXQH FRQFUHW OD PRGHODUHD FRQVXPXOXL SRSXOD LHL PRGHOXO FRQVXPXOXL DOLPHQWDU DO

SRSXOD LHL HVWH XQ PRGHO SDU LDO vQ UDSRUW FX PRGHOXO JOREDO DO FRQVXPXOXL WRWDO DO SRSXOD LHL 

DFHVWDUH]XOWkQGGLQDJUHJDUHDFRQVXPXULORUDOLPHQWDUQHDOLPHQWDULGHVHUYLFLLQDFHODLWLPS

FRQVXPXO DOLPHQWDU DO SRSXOD LHL DSDUH FD XQ PRGHO JOREDO
 DJUHJDW vQ UDSRUW FX PRGHOHOH SDU LDOH

DOHFRQVXPXOXLSHJUXSHRPRJHQHGHFRQVXPDWRULHWF 

([SOLFD LLOH GH PDL VXV DX XUP ULW V  MXVWLILFH LGHHD F  RULFH GHVFULHUH HFRQRPHWULF  WUHEXLH

V  VH IXQGDPHQWH]H SH R FRQFHS LH HFRQRPLF  H[SOLFLW  VDX LPSOLFLW  D IHQRPHQXOXL VWXGLDW 8Q

PRGHOHFRQRPHWULFFDUHQXUHVSHFW DFHDVW FRQGL LHUHSUH]LQW RVLPSO VSHFXOD LHPDWHPDWLF I U 

YDORDUHWHRUHWLF VDXSUDFWLF SHQWUXWLLQ DHFRQRPLF 

&ODVLILFDUHD PRGHOHORU HFRQRPHWULFH vQ FHOH GRX  WLSXUL SHUPLWH vQV  GLVFX LD SUREOHPHL

SULYLQG DJUHJDUHD PRGHOHORU SDU LDOH VDX LQYHUV GHVSUH VHPQLILFD LD PRGHOXOXL JOREDO vQ UDSRUW FX

PRGHOHOHSDU LDOH

$FHDVW  SUREOHPD YD IL DERUGDW  vQ PRG FRQFUHW vQ FD]XO PRGHO ULL FRQVXPXOXL SRSXOD LHL

GHRDUHFHVHYRUSXWHDIRUPXODREVHUYD LLSHUWLQHQWHFDUHU PkQYDODELOHSHQWUXRULFHDOW VLWXD LH

)LHPRGHOXO

\   D  E  [   X    L =  P  W =  Q    

XQGH

 \ FRQVXPXO

 [ YHQLWXOJUXSHLLvQDQXOW

$FHVWPRGHOUHSUH]LQW PRGHOXOSDU LDODOJUXSHLRPRJHQHLGHFRQVXPDWRULvQSHULRDGDGHQ

DQLQVXPkQGFHOHLPRGHOHSDU LDOHVHRE LQHPRGHOXODJUHJDWDODFHVWRUD

\ = D + E [ + X     
LW L L LW LW
L L L L

'DF VHLQWURGXFQRWD LLOH

\ =< FRQVXPXOWRWDODOSRSXOD LHLvQPRPHQWXOW

LW W
L

[ = ;  YHQLWXULOHSRSXOD LHLvQPRPHQWXOW
LW W
L

DL = D L X = X 
LW W
L L

0RGHOXODJUHJDWGHYLQH

< = D + E [  + X        


0RGHOXO JOREDO DO FRQVXPXOXL SRSXOD LHL FRQVWUXLW vQ DFHHDL SHULRDG  GH WLPS W  vQ IXQF LH

GHYHQLWXULOHSRSXOD LHLHVWHGHIRUPD

< = D + E;  + X       

[
 

'DF WHUPHQXO E [ GLQUHOD LDVHvQPXO HWHFX PRGHOXODJUHJDWGHYLQH
L LW
[
 
L


E [ E [
< = D + [ + X = D + ;  + X  
[ [

&RPSDUkQG PRGHOXO DJUHJDW  UH]XOWDW SULQ vQVXPDUHD PRGHOHORU SDU LDOH FX PRGHOXO

JOREDOVHGHGXFHF 



1H UHIHULP OD JUXSH RPRJHQH GH FRQVXPDWRUL GXS  P ULPHD YHQLWXULORU SH FDWHJRULL VRFLRSURIHVLRQDOH SH PHGLL GH

SURYHQLHQ HWF

16
 E
! [ ! "
!
E =        
[
! "
!

DGLF  SDUDPHWUXO E GLQ PRGHOXO JOREDO  FRHILFLHQWXO GH UHJUHVLH DO FRQVXPXOXL WRWDO vQ UDSRUW FX

YHQLWXULOHSRSXOD LHLUH]XOW FDRPHGLHDULWPHWLF DFRHILFLHQ LORUSDU LDOLGHUHJUHVLHSRQGHUD LFX

YHQLWXULOHFRQVXPDWRULORUGLQJUXSDL[ # $ 

 2 DOW  UHOD LH FH VHSRDWHGHGXFHvQWUHFRHILFLHQWXOJOREDODOUHJUHVLHLELFHLSDU LDOLE  VH

UHIHU ODHVWLPDWRUXODFHVWXLD E 

 'LQPRGHOXOSULQDSOLFDUHD0&003HVWLPDWRUXOOXLEHVWHHJDOFX

<
% ( -< )(; % - ; )
%

E =      

( )
&

;
% - ;
%

XQGH

 '
< =
' < QLYHOXOPHGLXDQXDODOFRQVXPXOXLSRSXOD LHLvQSHULRDGD W =  Q 
Q


; = ; QLYHOXOPHGLXDQXDODOYHQLWXOXLSRSXOD LHL
W
Q W

6HFDOFXOHD] PHGLDOXL<SHED]DPRGHOXOXLVHvQVXPHD] GXS WLVHvPSDUWHODQ

)

< = D + E +-, [( * = D + E( [    
(
( 
Q
( * (

XQGH
/

[ = . 2 [ 1 0
UHSUH]LQW PHGLDYHQLWXULORUJUXSHLLGHFRQVXPDWRULvQSHULRDGDW
1

Q 0

6F ]kQGGLQPRGHOXOPRGHOXOVHRE LQHUHOD LD

<4 - < = E3 [3 4 - E3 [
3
= E3 ([3 4 - [
3
)
3 3 3

FDUH VH LQWURGXFH vQ UHOD LD  RE LQkQGXVH XUP WRDUHD UHOD LH D FRHILFLHQWXOXL JOREDO GH

UHJUHVLH

( )(; )

E [ - [ - ;
6 65 6 5
6 5

E = 7     

;
5 ( - ; )
5

[
89 ( - [
8
)(; 9 - ; )
9
7HUPHQXO : =T 8 QXUHSUH]LQW DOWFHYDGHFkWHVWLPDWRUXOFRHILFLHQWXOXLGH

; (
9 - ; )
9

UHJUHVLH D YHQLWXULORU FRQVXPDWRULORU GLQ JUXSD L vQ IXQF LH GH YHQLWXULOH SRSXOD LHL HVWLPDW SH ED]D

IXQF LHLGHUHJUHVLH

[
= S ;
+T 
LW L L W

WLLQGF  [ = ;
UH]XOW F  S
=  L T =  
LW W L L
L L L

5HYHQLQGODUHOD LDVHGHGXFHF 

; 
E = E; T       
;

DGLF  FRHILFLHQWXO JOREDO GH UHJUHVLH HVWH HJDO FX VXPD SURGXVHORU GLQWUH FRHILFLHQ LL SDU LDOL GH

UHJUHVLH DL FRQVXPXOXL vQ IXQF LH GH YHQLW SH JUXSH RPRJHQH GH FRQVXPDWRUL L FRHILFLHQ LL GH

UHJUHVLHDLDFHVWRUYHQLWXULvQIXQF LHGHYHQLWXULOHSRSXOD LHL

17
 5H]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHPDLVXVVHSRWJHQHUDOL]DXRUHOHU PkQkQGYDODELOHvQRULFHVLWXD LHvQ

FDUH VH GLVFXW  UDSRUWXO GLQWUH XQ PRGHO SDU LDO L PRGHOXO JOREDO DO XQHL YDULDELOH UH]XOWDWLYH \ vQ

IXQF LH GH XQD VDX PDL PXOWH YDULDELOH IDFWRULDOH [ vQWUH FDUH H[LVW  R UHOD LH GH GHSHQGHQ  OLQLDU 

Q FD]XO GHSHQGHQ HORU QHOLQLDUH GXS  OLQLDUL]DUHD DFHVWRUD IRUPXOHOH GH PDL VXV YRU F S WD

SDUWLFXODULW LVSHFLILFH

QILQDOGLVFX LDUDSRUWXOXLPRGHOHSDU LDOHPRGHOHJOREDOHSHUPLWHIRUPXODUHDXUP WRDUHORU

FRQFOX]LL

 DJUHJDUHD PRGHOHORU SDU LDOH QX FRQGXFH OD RE LQHUHD PRGHOXOXL JOREDO DO YDULDELOHL

UHVSHFWLYH

PRGHOXOJOREDOUH]XOW FDRPHGLHDPRGHOHORUSDU LDOH

 vQ SODQ WUDQVYHUVDO UHVSHFWLY vQ SURILO WHULWRULDO GH H[HPSOX VDX FD H[SOLFD LH LVWRULF  D

GHSHQGHQ HL GLQWUH GRX  VDX PDL PXOWH IHQRPHQH HFRQRPLFH PRGHOXO JOREDO VH SRDWH HVWLPD SH

ED]DPRGHOHORUSDU < LDOHGDF VHDFFHSW FDVHPQLILFDWLY YDORDUHDFRHILFLHQWXOXLJOREDOGHUHJUHVLH

YH]LUHOD LD 

 vQ VFRSXUL GH SURJQR]  PRGHOXO JOREDO QX FRQGXFH OD UH]XOWDWH VHPQLILFDWLYH GHFkW GDF 

FRHILFLHQWXOJOREDOGHUHJUHVLHU PkQHVWDELO

'LQUHOD LDVHGHGXFHF DFHDVW FRQGL LHVHUHDOL]HD] vQXUP WRDUHOHVLWXD LL

 E=   E (" )L =  P  FRHILFLHQ LL SDU LDOL GH UHJUHVLH VXQW FRQVWDQ L L HJDOL FX FRHILFLHQWXO JOREDO

GHUHJHUHVLH


T = FRQVWDQWvQRUL]RQWXOGHSURJQR] FHHDFHSUHVXSXQHRFUHWHUHSURSRU LRQDO vQWUHQLYHOXO
L

YDULDELOHL IDFWRULDOH SH DQVDPEOXO XQLW LORU VWDWLVWLFH L QLYHOXO DFHVWHL YDULDELOH FHQWUDOL]DWH SH

JUXSHOHFROHFWLYLW LL

0RGHOHVWDWLFHLPRGHOHGLQDPLFH

8QPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFVWDWLFHVWHDFHODvQFDUHGHSHQGHQ DYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQH\ID GH

YDORULOHYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH[> VHUHDOL]HD] vQDFHHDLSHULRDG GHWLPS

\ I[ ?A@ [>A@ [BC@ X @  W =  Q  M =  N    

6SUH GHRVHELUH GH DFHVWHD PRGHOHOH HFRQRPHWULFH GLQDPLFH VH GHILQHVF SULQ XUP WRDUHOH

WLSXUL

D,QWURGXFHUHDvQSDFKHWXOGHYDULDELOHH[SOLFDWLYH[> vQPRGH[SOLFLWDYDULDELOHLWLPS

\@  I[ ?A@ [D-@ WX @       

8QDVWIHOGHPRGHOVHMXVWLILF DWXQFLFkQG

 SULQWUH IDFWRULL LPSRUWDQ L GH LQIOXHQ  DL YDULDELOHL \ VH DIO  L IDFWRUL GH QDWXU  FDOLWDWLY  D

F URU LQIOXHQ  QX SRDWH IL UHIOHFWDW  GH PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF GDWRULW  OLSVHL XQHL P VXUL VWDWLFH

DGHFYDWH GH H[HPSOX LQIOXHQ D SUHIHULQ HORU VDX JXVWXULORU SRSXOD LHL DVXSUD FRQVXPXOXL VDX

LQIOXHQ DSURJUHVXOXLWHKQLFvQIXQF LLOHGHSURGXF LH

 SRDWH IL DFFHSWDW  LSRWH]D XQXL HIHFW LQHU LDO vQ HYROX LD IHQRPHQXOXL \ LSRWH]  FDUH vQ

GRPHQLXO IHQRPHQHORU HFRQRPLFH SRDWH IL DFFHSWDW  GDWRULW  PDVHL VRFLDOH FDUH OH JHQHUHD]  L GH

FDUHEHQHILFLD] 

E PRGHOH DXWRUHJUHVLYH  FkQG vQ SDFKHWXO GH YDULDELOH H[SOLFDWLYH [>  VH LQWURGXFH L

YDULDELODH[SOLFDW \GDUFXYDORULGHFDODWH\ @ E? \ @ E D \ @ E B UHSUH]HQWkQGXQPRGHODXWRUHJUHVLYGH

RUGLQXON

\@  I[ @ \ @ E B X @       

F PRGHO FX GHFDODM vQ FDUH YDULDELOD IDFWRULDO  [ vL H[HUFLW  LQIOXHQ D DVXSUD YDULD LHL

YDULDELOHL\SHPDLPXOWHSHULRDGHGHWLPS

\ I[ @ [ @ E? [ @ E F X @  W =  Q  M =  N  N < W  

 XQGHN OXQJLPHDSHULRDGHLGHGHFDODMODJ

([HPSOH


G
 &RHILFLHQWXO JOREDO GH UHJUHVLH ILLQG PHGLD DULWPHWLF  SRQGHUDW  D FRHILFLHQ LORU SDU LDOL E H  UHOD LDVHSXQH

SUREOHPDUHSUH]HQWDWLYLW LLDFHVWXLD

18
 .@  I, @ , @ E? , @ E B X @      

XQGH

.@  IRQGXULOHIL[HSXVHvQIXQF LXQHvQSHULRDGDW

,@  LQYHVWL LLOHHIHFWXDWHvQSHULRDGDWNW

4I  I, @ , @ E? , @ E B X @ 

 XQGH

4@  SURGXF LDPHGLHODKD

,@  FDQWLWDWHDGHvQJU PLQWHODKD

$FHVWH WLSXUL GH PRGHOH D  E  F VH XWLOL]HD]  vQ VSHFLDO OD SURJQR]D IHQRPHQHORU

HFRQRPLFH'DF SULPHOHPRGHOHWLSXODEQXULGLF GLILFXOW LSULYLQGLGHQWLILFDUHDHVWLPDUHD

L YHULILFDUHD DFHVWRUD HOH ILLQG GH JHQXO PRGHOHORU HFRQRPHWULFH PXOWLIDFWRULDOH PRGHOHOH

GLQDPLFHFXGHFDODMSUH]LQW FkWHYDGLILFXOW L

3ULPDVHUHIHU ODP ULPHDGHFDODMXOXLNFXFkWDFHVWDHVWHPDLPDUHFXDWkWVHSLHUGPDL

PXOWH YDORUL DOH YDULDELOHORU QHDMXQV FH LPSXQH FRQVWUXLUHD XQHL VHULL OXQJL GH GDWH D IHQRPHQHORU

DQDOL]DWHSHFkQGvQHFRQRPLHVHOXFUHD] GHRELFHLFXHDQWLRDQHGHYROXPPLF

$ GRXD GLILFXOWDWH R UHSUH]LQW  H[LVWHQ D IHQRPHQXOXL GH PXOWLFROLQHDULWDWH vQWUH YDORULOH

GHFDODWH DOH YDULDELOHL H[RJHQH  FRY ([ [ )   "W =  Q  N < W  PXOWLFROLQHDULWDWH FDUH

W W -N

EL
FRQGXFHODRE LQHUHDGHHVWLPDWRULQHVHPQLILFDWLYL <  
V J
K

0RGHOHFXRVLQJXU HFXD LHLPRGHOHFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH

$O WXUL GH DFHVWH WLSXUL GH PRGHOH HFRQRPHWULFH VH PDL SRW FRQVWUXL L PRGHOH FX R VLQJXU 

HFXD LHLPRGHOHFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH

'LQFDWHJRULDPRGHOHORUFXVLQJXU HFXD LHIDFSDUWHWRDWHPRGHOHOHSUH]HQWDWHPDLVXV

0RGHOHOH HFRQRPHWULFH FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH VXQW IRUPDWH GLQWUXQ VLVWHP GH HFXD LL $FHVWHD

VHSRWSUH]HQWDVXEGRX IRUPHVXEIRUP VWUXFWXUDO LVXEIRUP UHGXV VDXFDQRQLF 

8Q PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  UHSUH]LQW  WUDQVSXQHUHD IRUPDO   SULQWUXQ

VLVWHPGHHFXD LLDSURFHVXOXLHFRQRPLF)RUPDJHQHUDO DDFHVWXLPRGHOHVWHXUP WRDUHD

< ? E ?MD <D E ?MN <N F ?? ; ? F ?MD ;D F ?MO ;O  8 ? 

EDP? < ? <D EDN <N FDP? ; ? FDD ;D FDO ;O  8D   



ENP? < ? END <D <N FNP? ; ? FND ;D FNO ;O  8N 

XQGH 

< = L QYDULDELOHH[SOLFDWHVDXHQGRJHQH

 ;> M PYDULDELOHH[SOLFDWLYHVDXH[RJHQH

5H]ROYDUHD XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF SUHVXSXQH HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU E = >  L F = >  FX DMXWRUXO

XQHLDQXPLWHPHWRGHVWRFKDVWLFHGHHVWLPDUHDDFHVWRUD

'LQWUHPHWRGHOHIRORVLWHODHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFPHQ LRQ P

PHWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWH0&003vQWURVLQJXU WUHDSW 0:DOG

0&003vQGRX WUHSWH+7KHLO

0&003vQWUHLWUHSWH$=HOOQHU

PHWRGDYHURVLPLOLW LLPD[LPHFXLQIRUPD LHOLPLWDW $QGHUVRQ5XELQ

'HRDUHFHDSOLFDUHDXQHLPHWRGHGHHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOVXEIRUP VWUXFWXUDO 

FRQGXFH OD RE LQHUHD GH HVWLPD LL GHSODVDWH DOH SDUDPHWULORU E = >  L F = >  PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF VXE

DFHDVW IRUP WUHEXLHWUDQVIRUPDWVXEIRUP UHGXV VDXFDQRQLF 

8Q PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF HVWH VXE IRUP  UHGXV  VDX FDQRQLF  GDF  ILHFDUH YDULDELO  HQGRJHQ 

HVWHH[SULPDW QXPDLvQIXQF LHGHYDULDELOHOHH[RJHQH

19
0RGHOHHXULVWLFHVDXUD LRQDOHLPRGHOHGHFL]LRQDOHVDXRSHUD LRQDOH

7LSRORJLD PRGHOHORU HFRQRPHWULFH HVWH IRDUWH YDVW  WRWXL DFHVWHD SRW IL vPS U LWH vQ GRX 

PDULJUXSHPRGHOHHXULVWLFHVDXUD LRQDOHLPRGHOHGHFL]LRQDOHVDXRSHUD LRQDOH

0RGHOHOHHXULVWLFHVDXUD LRQDOHVXQWIRORVLWHvQVSHFLDOGHWHRULDHFRQRPLF SHQWUXDH[SOLFD

SH R FDOH PDL VLPSO  XQ VLVWHP FRPSOH[ GH GHSHQGHQ H L LQWHUGHSHQGHQ H FH VH PDQLIHVW  vQ

GRPHQLXO HFRQRPLF 0RGHOXO WHRUHWLF UHSUH]LQW  GH IDSW R IRUP  VLPSOLILFDW  D PRGHOXOXL UHDO

GHRDUHFHvQFDGUXODFHVWXLDQXSRWILLQFOXLWR LIDFWRULL

0RGHOHOH GHFL]LRQDOH VDX RSHUD LRQDOH VH XWLOL]HD]  vQ VSHFLDO vQ SUDFWLFD HFRQRPLF  HOH

ILLQG IRORVLWH OD IXQGDPHQWDUHD XQRU GHFL]LL GH SROLWLF  HFRQRPLF  VLPXODUH L OD SURJQR]D

IHQRPHQHORUHFRQRPLFH

(YLGHQWF GLIHUHQ DGLQWUHDFHVWHGRX PRGHOHQXHVWHDEVROXW DGLF XQPRGHOUD LRQDOVDX

WHRUHWLFSRDWHILXWLOL]DWFDXQPRGHORSHUD LRQDOGDF SRWILDFFHSWDWHDQXPLWHLSRWH]H

8Q H[HPSOX GH PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF FH SRDWH IL IRORVLW DWkW vQ VFRSXUL HXULVWLFH FkW L vQ

VFRSXULRSHUD LRQDOHvOUHSUH]LQW PRGHOXOHFRQRPHWULFXWLOL]DWODGHVFULHUHDSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUX

3HED]DWHRULHLHFRQRPLFHDGHILQLULLXQHLSLH HOLEHUHLDFRQFHSWXOXLGHKRPRHFRQRPLFXV

ILLQ  UD LRQDO  FRPSRUWDPHQWH ORJLFH PRGHOXO XWLOL]DW OD GHVFULHUHD IRUP ULL SUH XOXL GH HFKLOLEUX

HVWH

3 I&X       

3 I2]       

QVLWXD LDSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUX& 2     

3HFDOHORJLF VHGHGXFHF UHOD LDGLQWUHSUH LFHUHUHHVWHGHIRUP LQYHUV LF RDVWIHOGH

UHOD LHSRDWHILGHVFULV FXDMXWRUXOXQHLIXQF LLPRQRWRQGHVFUHVF WRDUHOLQLDU VDXSXWHUH

)XQF LHOLQLDU 3 DE&E      

Q
)XQF LHSXWHUH3 D& OQ3 OQDEOQ&   

QPRGDQDORJVHSRDWHGHGXFHF OHJHDRIHUWHLSRDWHILGHVFULV FXDMXWRUXODFHORUDLIXQF LL

)XQF LHOLQLDU 3 ab2       

R
)XQF LHSXWHUH3 a2 !OQ2 OQabOQ2    

$FHDVWDvQVHDPQ F OHJHDRIHUWHLLDFHUHULLSRDWHILGHVFULV ILHFXDMXWRUXOXQHLGUHSWHILH

SHED]DXQHLVF ULORJDULWPLFH


3 OQ3


  &2  OQ&OQ2

)LJXUD'UHDSW )LJXUD6FDU ORJDULWPLF 

(VWH FXQRVFXW IDSWXO F  H[SOLFDUHD IRUP ULL SUH XOXL GH HFKLOLEUX VH IDFH SH ED]D XQXL JUDILF

GHIRUPD

 3 &U
2S

&S


 (U
T
3U 2U

(S
T

3S T
 3V


T T T T T T

2S &S 2U &U 2V &V &2
20

)LJXUD
 ,QWHUSUHWkQG PRGLILFDUHD SUH XOXL GH HFKLOLEUX GHVFULV FX DMXWRUXO XQHL IXQF LL OLQLDUH SXWHP

FRQVWDWD F  vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH FHUHUHD VH PRGLILF  FUHWH LDU RIHUWD U PkQH FRQVWDQW  DFHDVW 

PRGLILFDUH SUHVXSXQH ILH R GHSODVDUH SDUDOHO  FX SULPD GUHDSW  ILH GUHDSWD SLYRWHD]  GLQ SXQFWXO

GHLQWHUVHF LHFXD[D2\

QSULPXOFD]3 DE&3 D ? E&LDUvQDOGRLOHDFD]VHPRGLILF SDQWD

GUHSWHLGLVWDQ DID GHRULJLQHU PkQkQGFRQVWDQW 3 DE ? &

Q SUDFWLF  FHOH GRX  VLWXD LL DSDU FkQG DX ORF FRPSHQV UL  SULPXO FD]  UHVSHFWLY FkQG DX

ORFLQGH[ ULDOGRLOHDFD]

Q PRG DQDORJ VH SURFHGHD]  L vQ FD]XO PRGLILF ULL RIHUWHL VDX D PRGLILF ULL VLPXOWDQH D

FHUHULLLRIHUWHL

Q SOXV GHVFULHUHD OHJLL FHUHULL FX DMXWRUXO XQHL IXQF LL PDWHPDWLFH SHUPLWH GHILQLUHD

ULJXURDV DXQRUFRQFHSWHHFRQRPLFHFXPDUILFRHILFLHQWXOPDUJLQDOLFRHILFLHQWXOGHHODVWLFLWDWH

$VWIHOvQFD]XOXQHLGUHSWHFRHILFLHQWXOPDUJLQDOHVWHGHIRUPD

3
FP = = E FP = F W      
&

LDUFRHILFLHQWXOGHHODVWLFLWDWHHVWHGHIRUPD

3 & E& 3 - D D
FH = = = = - FH [ ]  
3 & D +E & D+E& D+E&

vQDFHVWFD]H[LVWkQGRHODVWLFLWDWHULJLG 

Q JHQHUDO WHRULD HFRQRPLF  XWLOL]HD]  FX SUHGLOHF LH IXQF LD SXWHUH SHQWUX D H[SOLFD

IRUPDUHDSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUXUHIHULWRUODOHJHDFHUHULL
Q
3 D& OQ3 OQDEOQ&

$FHDVW  IXQF LH SUH]LQW  SURSULHWDWHD F  SDQWD GUHSWHL UHVSHFWLY FRHILFLHQWXO PDUJLQDO HVWH

OQ 3
HJDO FX FRHILFLHQWXO GH HODVWLFLWDWH F P = F H = = E   UH]XOWkQG FRHILFLHQWXO GH
OQ &

HODVWLFLWDWH D SUH XOXL vQ IXQF LH GH FHUHUH DWXQFL FkQG OHJHD FHUHULL SRDWH IL GHVFULV  FX DMXWRUXO
X QZY
N\[
IXQF LHLSXWHUHVDXDFHOHLH[SRQHQ LDOH3 HW 

$FHVW PRGHO UD LRQDO VDX HXULVWLF SRDWH IL XWLOL]DW FD PRGHO RSHUD LRQDO UHVSHFWLY vQ YHGHUHD

FDOFXO ULLSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUXGDF SRWILDFFHSWDWHFkWHYDLSRWH]HFXPDUIL

VHFXQRDWHQXP UXOFXPS U WRULORULFHODOYkQ] WRULORU

  VH FXQRVF RS LXQLOH IHUPH DOH DFHVWRUD SULYLQG FDQWLWDWHD FHUXW  VDX RIHULW  VSUH YkQ]DUH

SUHFXPLSUH XOGHFXPS UDUHLGHYkQ]DUHUHVSHFWLYSUHIHULQ HOHFXPS U WRULORULYkQ] WRULORUDX

XQFDUDFWHUFHUWLQXDOHDWRU

$FHVWH LSRWH]H VH YHULILF  vQ JHQHUDO SH SLD D EXUVLHU  XQGH GH UHJXO  SUH XO GH HFKLOLEUX DO

XQHLDF LXQLVDXSURGXVPDUI VHFDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULFXUP WRU

V DGPLWHPF SHQWUX]LXD+VHFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHGDWHUHIHULWRDUHODSUH XOGHFXPS UDUHL

YROXPXOFHUHULLGHDF LXQLSUHFXPLSUH XOGHYkQ]DUHLYROXPXORIHUWHLDFHVWRUD

 7DEHO

2IHUWD       

EXF

3UH        

OHLEXF

7DEHO

&HUHUH      

EXF

3UH       

OHLEXF

21
 'HVFULHUHDHFRQRPHWULF DIRUP ULLSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUXVHUHDOL]HD] FXDMXWRUXOPRGHOXOXL

3 I&X

3 I2]

& 2

3HQWUX LGHQWLILFDUHD OHJLL FHUHULL L D RIHUWHL YRU WUHEXL FRQVWUXLWH VHULLOH VWDWLVWLFH L VH YD

HIHFWXDUHSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF DDFHVWRUD

&RQVWUXLUHDVHULLORUVWDWLVWLFHVHIDFHSHED]DXUP WRUXOXLUD LRQDPHQW

GDF XQFXPS U WRUDFKL]L LRQHD] RFDQWLWDWHGHDF LXQLODXQDQXPLWSUH HOYDFXPS UDFX

DWkWPDLPXOWFXFkWSUH XOYDILPDLPLF

 GDF  XQ RIHUWDQW vL YLQGH DF LXQLOH OD XQ DQXPLW SUH  HO OH YD YLQGH FX DWkW PDL PXOW FX FkW

SUH XOYDILPDLPDUH

5H]XOW  DVWIHO XUP WRDUHOH VHULL VWDWLVWLFH FRQVWUXLWH vQ XUPD RUGRQ ULL SUH XULORU DQXQ DWH GH

FXPS U WRULLRIHUWDQ L

7DEHO

2IHUWD 3UH XO &HUHUHD

EXF OHLEXF EXF

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

& 2



]_^Z` a bdc


]_^Z` a efc

 gAh iCjkPl-a ]m^

` a efc c

 gAh iCjkPl-a ]m^

` a bnc c




3
          

)LJXUD)RUPDUHDSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUX

Q XUPD UHSUH]HQW ULL JUDILFH VH REVHUY  F  OHJLOH FHUHULL L DOH RIHUWHL SRW IL DSUR[LPDWH FX

GRX IXQF LLOLQLDUHGHIRUPD

/HJHDFHUHULL3 DE&]      

/HJHDRIHUWHL3 ab2X      

Q YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL SDUDPHWULORU D E a b  VHDSOLF PHWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWHILHF UXL

b 
PRGHOvQSDUWHUH]XOWkQGDVWIHOHVWLPDWRULLSDUDPHWULORU D
 E a

9ROXPXOGHHFKLOLEUXVHFDOFXOHD] DVWIHO

a-D
2 = & D + E & = a + b 2 2 = & =   
E -b

22
LDUSUH XOGHHFKLOLEUXYDIL

a -D a E - D b
3 = D + E =    
E -b E -b

 8Q DVWIHO GHPRGHORSHUD LRQDOVHIRORVHWHODHVWLPDUHDFXUVXOXLYDOXWDUIL[LQJXOEDQFDUL

ODHVWLPDUHDSUH XULORUDF LXQLORUSHSLH HOHGHFDSLWDO

 'H DVHPHQHD DFHVWD SRDWH IL DGDSWDW L OD DQDOL]D FHUHULL L RIHUWHL RULF UXL EXQ VDX VHUYLFLX

GHFRQVXPGDF LSRWH]HOHPHQ LRQDWHPDLVXVSRWILDFFHSWDWH

%,%/,2*5$),(

%DURQ7%LML(LFROHFWLY6WDWLVWLF WHRUHWLF LHFRQRPLF (GLWXUD'LGDFWLF L3HGDJRJLF 

%XFXUHWL

%DOWDJL%(FRQRPHWULFV6SULQJHU%HUOLQ

*LUDXG5&KDL[1eFRQRPpWULH38)3DULV

*UHHQH+:(FRQRPHWULF$QDO\VLV0DFPLOODQ3XEOLVKLQJ&RPSDQ\1HZ<RUN
p
*XMDUDWL51%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV
p o HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

-RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGVo HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

/DEURXVVH&,QWURGXFWLRQDOpFRQRPpWULH'XQRG3DULV
p
0DGGDOD*6,QWURGXFWLRQWR(FRQRPHWULFVo HG0F0LOODQ&R1HZ<RUN

3HFLFDQ(7 Q VRLX2(FRQRPHWULHOLWR$6(%XFXUHWL p
 3LQG\FN 5 6 5XELQIHOG ' 6  (FRQRPHWULF 0RGHOV DQG (FRQRPLF )RUHFDVWV q  HG 0F

*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

 7 Q VRLX 2  'HVFULHUHD VWDWLVWLF  D IRUP ULL SUH XOXL GH HFKLOLEUX vQ HFRQRPLD GH SLD 

5HYLVWD5RPkQ GH6WDWLVWLF QUSDJ

23
 &DSLWROXO,,,

0RGHOXOXQLIDFWRULDO


6SHFLILFDUHDLGHILQLUHDPRGHOXOXLXQLIDFWRULDO


6SHFLILFDUHD XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VH IDFH SH ED]D WHRULHL HFRQRPLFH D IHQRPHQXOXL

REVHUYDWLFRQVW vQSUHFL]DUHDYDULDELOHLHQGRJHQHLDYDULDELOHLH[RJHQH

8QPRGHOXQLIDFWRULDOVHSUH]LQW DVWIHO

\ = I [  + X        

XQGH

\  (\   \ K  \ ) YDULDELODHQGRJHQ VDXUH]XOWDWLY 



[  ( [  [ K [ ) YDULDELODH[RJHQ VDXIDFWRULDO VDXFDX]DO 

X  (X   X  K X  ) YDULDELODUH]LGXDO DOHDWRDUHVDXHURDUH

5HOD LD  UHSUH]LQW  R LSRWH]  FRQVWUXLW  SH ED]D WHRULHL HFRQRPLFH L SUHVXSXQH F 

IHQRPHQXO HFRQRPLF \ HVWH UH]XOWDWXO DF LXQLL XQXL FRPSOH[ GH IDFWRUL IHQRPHQXO HFRQRPLF [ HVWH

IDFWRUXO SULQFLSDO HVHQ LDO FH GHWHUPLQ  IHQRPHQXO \ UHVWXO IDFWRULORU ILLQG FRQVLGHUD L QHHVHQ LDOL

FXDF LXQHvQWkPSO WRDUHHLILLQGVSHFLILFD LvQPRGHOXOHFRQRPHWULFFXDMXWRUXOYDULDELOHLDOHDWRDUH

X&DRULFHLSRWH] WHRUHWLF HDSRDWHILDGHY UDW VDXIDOV [HVWHVDXQXHVWHIDFWRUXOKRW UkWRUDO

IHQRPHQXOXL \  LDU YDOLGDUHD VDX LQYDOLGDUHD XQHL DVWIHO GH LSRWH]H VH IDFH vQ XUPD XQXL

H[SHULPHQWVWDWLVWLF

7HRULD HFRQRPLF  D IRORVLW L IRORVHWH vQ QXPHURDVH FD]XUL PRGHOXO XQLIDFWRULDO SHQWUX D

IXQGDPHQWD L GHVFULH PHFDQLVPXO GH IRUPDUH L GH PDQLIHVWDUH D OHJLORU HFRQRPLFH Q DFHVW VHQV

SRWILPHQ LRQDWH

 OHJHD FHUHULL &  I3  X  I3    FHUHUHD & XQXL DQXPLW SURGXV FUHWH VDX VH

UHGXFHGDF SUH XO3DFHVWXLDVHPLFRUHD] VDXVHP UHWH

 OHJHDRIHUWHL2 J3XJ3!RIHUWD2XQXLSURGXVFUHWHVDXVHGLPLQXHD] 

GDF SUH XO3DFHVWXLDVHP UHWHVDXVFDGH

 IXQF LDGHSURGXF LHDFKHOWXLHOLORUWRWDOHDOHXQHLILUPH&K I4X I4 ! 

 FKHOWXLHOLOH GH SURGXF LH FUHVF VDX VFDG GDF YROXPXOSURGXF LHLFUHWHVDXVFDGHvQ

VLWXD LDvQFDUHSURGXFWLYLWDWHDU PkQHFRQVWDQW 

 OHJLOHFRQVXPXOXLIRUPXODWHGH(QJHOLGHVFULVHGHIXQF LLOHOXL7RUQTYLVWFRQVLGHU 

YHQLWXO 9 FRQVXPDWRUXOXL FD SULQFLSDO IDFWRU DO FRQVXPXOXL & XQXL SURGXV VDX JUXSH

GHSURGXVH& I9XI9!

'H DVHPHQHD IRDUWH PXOWH DQDOL]H HFRQRPLFH XWLOL]HD]  PRGHOXO XQLIDFWRULDO SHQWUX D

H[SOLFDLSURVSHFWDGHSHQGHQ DGLQWUHGRX IHQRPHQHFXPDUIL

 FRUHOD LDGLQWUHFUHWHUHDSUH XULORULFUHWHUHDVDODULLORU

 FRUHOD LDGLQWUHFUHWHUHDSUH XULORULUDWDRPDMXOXLFXUEDOXL3KLOLSV

 FRUHOD LDGLQWUHFUHWHUHDVDODULLORULSURGXFWLYLWDWHDPXQFLLHWF

,GHQWLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLXQLIDFWRULDO

,GHQWLILFDUHD PRGHOXOXL FRQVW  vQ DOHJHUHD XQHL IXQF LL VDX D XQXL JUXS GH IXQF LL

PDWHPDWLFH FX DMXWRUXO F UHLD VH XUP UHWH V  VH GHVFULH V  VH DSUR[LPH]H YDORULOH YDULDELOHL

HQGRJHQH \ QXPDL vQ IXQF LH GH YDULD LD YDULDELOHL H[RJHQH [ )XQF LLOH PDWHPDWLFH FDUH VH SRW

XWLOL]D vQ DFHVW VHQV  IXQF LL OLQLDUH VDX QHOLQLDUH  VXQW QXPHURDVH L GH IRUPH GLYHUVH SULQWUH

DFHVWHDILJXUkQGLFHOHSUH]HQWDWHvQFRQWLQXDUH


24

\
\

D

 DE! E!




 DE!

 E
D D!E
 

 

 [
 [

)XQF LDOLQLDU     )XQF LDVHPLORJDULWPLF 

 D  \ DE[X    \ DEORJ[X

\ \
E!

E 

E!
QLYHOGHVDWXUD LH
E D

E

E


[  [

)XQF LDSXWHUHLIXQF LDORJDULWPLF   )XQF LDLQYHUV KLSHUEROD

 E
\ D[ X      \ =D + +X 
[

ORJ\ ORJDEORJ[XVDXORJ\ DEORJ[X

\ \

\ 

E!

H[SD QLYHOGHVDWXUD LH

EF! EF!
E

 [  E E [
   
F - F

)XQF LDORJLQYHUV      )XQF LDORJORJLQYHUV 

E E
ORJ \ = D + +X     ORJ \ = D + + F ORJ [ + X 
[ [


25
 \ D \ DF!

F! E

\ E! \ 
 DF!
 
E

DF DF

E! E!
\
\

 

 
-
E [
    [

F
H

 3DUDERODGHJUDGXO,,   3DUDERODORJDULWPLF 

\ = D + E[ + F[ + X     \ = D + E ORJ [ + F (ORJ [ ) +X 



\

\
D 
1LYHOGHVDWXUD LH ,,  D!E!
\ 

 

D  D!E

1LYHOGH ,

VDWXUD LH

" 
 & [   +  ' $&%('*) !  [
# 
H

)XQF LLOHOXL7RUQTXLVW   )XQF LDOXL.RQLXV

   \ = [ (D + E ORJ [ )+X 

[
,  \ =D + X  DE > 
[ +E

[ -F
 ,,  \ =D +X D  F >  E > -F  [ F 
[ +E

[ -F
,,,  \ = D[ + X  D  F >   E > -F  [ F
[ +E

\

 
F F
1LYHOGHVDWXUD LH   \ = +X 
E
. / - ,
E! +H

F
 \ = 5 6 4 1 2&3 0 +X 

+H
E
F
 \ = : 8 +X 
9
7
 [ + H

   )XQF LDORJLVWLF 

$OHJHUHDXQHLDQXPLWHIXQF LLPDWHPDWLFHFDIXQF LHGHUHJUHVLHDXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULF

<  I[  VH IDFH SH ED]D YDORULORU UHDOH VDX HPSLULFH DOH FHORU GRX  IHQRPHQH HFRQRPLFH


26
VLVWHPDWL]DWH ILHvQVHULLVSD LDOH\ ;  [ ;  L =  Q Q QXP UXOXQLW LORUVWDWLVWLFHRPRJHQHODFDUH

VDX vQUHJLVWUDWvQWURDQXPLW SHULRDG GHWLPSYDORULOHFHORUGRX IHQRPHQH\L[ILHvQVHULLGH

WLPS \ <  [ <   W =  Q  Q  QXP UXO SHULRDGHORU GH WLPS vQ FDUH VDX vQUHJLVWUDW YDORULOH FHORU GRX 

IHQRPHQH\L[ODDFHHDLXQLWDWHVWDWLVWLF 

'LVSXQkQG GH R VHULH VWDWLVWLF  SULYLQG YDULD LD vQ WLPS VDX vQ VSD LX D FHORU GRX  YDULDELOH

HFRQRPLFH YH]L WDEHOXO  SUREOHPD LGHQWLILF ULL FRQVW  vQ D DOHJH R IXQF LH PDWHPDWLF  < <  

I[ <  FX DMXWRUXO F UHLD FXQRVFkQG YDORULOH IHQRPHQXOXL HFRQRPLF [ <  V  VH DSUR[LPH]H V  VH

HVWLPH]H FkW PDL ELQH FX HURUL FkW PDL PLFL YDORULOH HPSLULFH DOH IHQRPHQXOXL \ <   \ =  \>  B B B

\? SULQYDORULOHWHRUHWLFH

  7DEHO
B B F D F F D
[<  \<  \ - \ A @ [ E \ - \ E
FPC = B B  FH G = F D F F D 
[ - [ A @ \ E [ - [ E

[=  \=   
H J J
[>  \>  \ - \I H [ \K - \
H = FP  FH K = J J 
[ - [I \ [K - [

M M M M
   
L L O O
[?  \?  \ - \ M N L [P Q \P - \P Q
L L = FP  FH P = O O 
[ - [ M N \P Q [P - [P Q


$FHDVW RSHUD LHVHSRDWHIDFHvQJHQHUDOXWLOL]kQGXUP WRDUHOHSURFHGHHGHOXFUX

D SURFHGHXOJUDILF

E SURFHGHXOFRQVHUY ULLDULLORU

F SURFHGHXOFDOFXOHORUDOJHEULFH

D3URFHGHXOJUDILFFRQVW vQFRQVWUXLUHDFRUHORJUDPHLGLQWUHFHOHGRX YDULDELOH

\

\ Y[Z]\

/

6
\ X


/
[

)LJXUD

/D FRQVWUXLUHD FRUHORJUDPHL VFDOD SH FHOH GRX  D[H 2\ L 2[ WUHEXLH V  VH FDOFXOH]H SH

ED]DXUP WRDUHLUHJXOL

$ [ - [ W
2[  FP  U = RTSVU 
/ /


27
 $b \ - \ c
2\  FP  = ^T_a` 
/ /

DGLF  YDULD LD ILHF UHL YDULDELOH H[SULPDW  SULQ DPSOLWXGLQHD DFHVWHLD $d  L $e  HVWH UHSUH]HQWDW 

SULQWUXQ XQ VHJPHQW GH GUHDSW  DYkQG DFHHDL OXQJLPH / SH FHOH GRX  D[H Q DFHVW PRG

LQWHQVLWDWHDOHJ WXULLGLQWUHFHOHGRX YDULDELOHH[SULPDW SULQDPSOLWXGLQHDDFHVWRUDQXHVWHYLFLDW 

GHJUDILFSULQDSODWL]DUHDVDXDOXQJLUHDDFHVWXLD

3ULQXQLUHDFXVHJPHQWHGHGUHDSW DSXQFWHORU1[ < \ < VHRE LQHJUDILFXOSXQFWHORUHPSLULFH

YH]L)LJXUDQIXQF LHGHIRUPDJUDILFXOXLSXQFWHORUHPSLULFHVHDOHJHRIXQF LHPDWHPDWLF 

DOF UHLJUDILFDSUR[LPHD] FHOPDLELQHJUDILFXOSXQFWHORUHPSLULFH

QXUPDDFHVWHLRSHUD LLVHYDDOHJH

 IXQF LDOLQLDU < <  DE[ < GDF FXUEDHPSLULF SRDWHILDSUR[LPDW FXRGUHDSW 

 IXQF LDSXWHUH< <  D[ < f GDF FXUEDHPSLULF SRDWHILDSUR[LPDW FXFXUEDDFHVWHLIXQF LL

VDX

OQ< <  OQDEOQ[ < GDF FXUEDHPSLULF SRDWHILDSUR[LPDW FXRGUHDSW SH

XQJUDILFGXEOXORJDULWPLF

h iml

g h ikj


o d
 IXQF LD H[SRQHQ LDO   < <   Hn f <   GDF  FXUED HPSLULF  SRDWH IL DSUR[LPDW  FX JUDILFXO DFHVWHL

IXQF LL

VDX

OQ< <  DE[ < GDF FXUEDHPSLULF SRDWHILDSUR[LPDW FXRGUHDSW 

SHXQJUDILFVHPLORJDULWPLF

h iml

g j

p
<
H  DE[ < < <  OQDEOQ[ < 

g h ikj


E 3URFHGHXO FRQVHUY ULL DULLORU FRQWLQX  SURFHGHXO JUDILF L FRQVW  vQ D FRPSDUD VXSUDID D

FXUEHL HPSLULFH 6  YH]L ILJXUD   FX VXSUDIH HOH WHRUHWLFH 6q  DOH FHORU K M =  K  IXQF LL

PDWHPDWLFHM IXQF LDOLQLDU M IXQF LDSXWHUHHWF


28
 6XSUDID D DIHUHQW  FXUEHL HPSLULFH 6 VH YD FDOFXOD SULQ vQVXPDUHD VXSUDIH HORU WUDSH]HORU

DO F URU QXP U Q GHSLQGH GH QXP UXO SXQFWHORU HPSLULFH 1[ <  \ <  W =  Q  LDU VXSUDIH HOH

WHRUHWLFHDOHIXQF LLORUPDWHPDWLFHDFFHSWDWHvQXUPDYL]XDOL] ULLFXUEHLHPSLULFHVHYRUFDOFXODFX

DMXWRUXOIRUPXOHL

[ rts]u
6
M
= I M
([ )G[ 

[
v

Q ILQDO DOHJHUHD FHOHL PDL DGHFYDWH IXQF LL GH UHJUHVLH VH SRDWH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO XUP WRDUHL

UHJXOL

6 -6 w
PLQ 
w w
6

F 3URFHGHXO FDOFXOHORU DOJHEULFH VH IXQGDPHQWHD]  SH SURSULHW LOH SH FDUH OH SRVHG 

IXQF LLOHPDWHPDWLFH\ I[SULYLQGXUP WRULLLQGLFDWRUL

\
 &P = YLWH]DGHYDULD LHDEVROXW DIXQF LHLVDXFRHILFLHQWXOPDUJLQDO
[

I [ 
 \ = YLWH]DPHGLHGHYDULD LHDIXQF LHLYDORDUHDPHGLH
[

\ [ OQ \
 &H =  =   YLWH]D GH YDULD LH UHODWLY  D IXQF LHL VDX FRHILFLHQWXO GH
\ [ OQ [

HODVWLFLWDWH

Q DFHVW VHQV YRP H[HPSOLILFD SURSULHW LOH DFHVWRU LQGLFDWRUL SHQWUX FkWHYD FDWHJRULL GH

IXQF LLGHUHJUHVLH

'HRDUHFH [ L \ GHVFULX IHQRPHQH HFRQRPLFH YDORULOH ORU WUHEXLH V  ILH SR]LWLYH 'HFL

IXQF LLOH GH UHJUHVLH VXQW GHILQLWH SH LQWHUYDOXO >@ >@ 9DULDELOD \ UHSUH]LQW  YDULDELOD

HIHFWLDUYDULDELOD[YDULDELODFDX] 

\ DE[

QFD]XOvQFDUHSDUDPHWUXOEHVWHSR]LWLYVHVSXQHF H[LVW RGHSHQGHQ GLUHFW vQWUHFDX] 

L HIHFW LDU FkQG SDUDPHWUXO E HVWH QHJDWLY VH VSXQH F  H[LVW  R GHSHQGHQ  LQYHUV  vQWUH FDX]  L

HIHFW

3DUDPHWUXODUHSUH]LQW YDORDUHDHIHFWXOXLDWXQFLFkQGFDX]DHVWHHJDO FX]HUR

3DUDPHWULL D L E QX SRW IL vQ DFHODL WLPS QHJDWLYL GHRDUHFH VDU RE LQH SHQWUX \ GRDU YDORUL

QHJDWLYH

QIXQF LHGHYDORULOHSDUDPHWULORUDLEH[LVW WUHLFD]XUL

 \ \ \
DE D D!

E! E


D

D

[ [ [

D D
- -
E E

= \ x =E 
&P &P
D &P
E
E!

E [

E
[


29


QFD]XOvQFDUHE!ODRFUHWHUHFXRXQLWDWHDOXL[vLYDFRUHVSXQGHRFUHWHUHFXEXQLW L

DOXL\QFD]XOvQFDUHE!ODRFUHWHUHFXRXQLWDWHDOXL[vLYDFRUHVSXQGHRVF GHUHFXEXQLW LD

OXL\

\ \

\ D
= =E +
E
E \ 
E
[ [

[ [
 DE!
D!E!


 \ 

= E  
\ 
OLP
\

= SHQWUXD!
OLP
\ [
[

= - SHQWUXD E
OLP
\
E

D!E

DE

Q FD]XO vQ FDUH FDX]DHVWHPD[LP DFHDVWDWLQGHVSUHLQILQLWHIHFWXOPHGLXILLQGHJDOFX E

$WXQFL FkQG FDX]D WLQGH F WUH ]HUR LDU SDUDPHWUXO D HVWH SR]LWLY HIHFWXO PHGLX HIHFWXO SH ILHFDUH

XQLWDWH GH FDX]  YD WLQGH V  ILH PD[LP VSUH LQILQLW LDU GDF  SDUDPHWUXO D HVWH QHJDWLY HIHFWXO

PHGLXWLQGHV ILHPLQLPVSUHPLQXVLQILQLW

[ E[ &H
 F &H = \ y = 
\ D + E[


  OLPz &H =   OLP &H =  

{ | }  ~
[


&RHILFLHQWXO GH HODVWLFLWDWH H[SULP  FX FkWH SURFHQWH VH PRGLILF  HIHFWXO DWXQFL FkQG FDX]D

VHPRGLILF FXXQSURFHQW6HREVHUY F ODRPRGLILFDUHFXXQSURFHQWDFDX]HLSHQWUXYDORULPLFL

DOHDFHVWHLDWLQ]kQGF WUH]HURHIHFWXOQXVHPRGLILF FXQLFLXQSURFHQWQFD]XOYDORULORUPDULDOH

FDX]HL PRGLILFDUHD FX XQ SURFHQW D DFHVWHLD LPSOLF  R PRGLILFDUH FX XQ SURFHQW D HIHFWXOXL

,QGLIHUHQW GH YDORULOH FDX]HL XQHL PRGLILF UL GH XQ SURFHQW D DFHVWHLD vL YRU FRUHVSXQGH PRGLILF UL

DOHHIHFWXOXLFXSULQVHvQWUH]HURLXQX

E
 \ = D + DE!
[


OLP \ = + 

\


OLP \ = D 
D


[ E
\ = - <  \HVWHGHVFUHVF WRU
[


30
 E
D &P = - 

 OLP &P = -  OLP &P =  

&P

(  )
[
E
(&P ) (- E )

= [ = 

([ )

[

&PHFUHVF WRUSH

'HFLODFUHWHULDOHFDX]HLHIHFWXOVFDGH3HQWUXYDORULPLFLDOHFDX]HLPRGLILF ULOHHIHFWXOXL

VXQWIRDUWHPDULWLQ]kQGVSUHLQILQLWLDUSHQWUXYDORULIRDUWHPDULDOHFDX]HLPRGLILF ULOHHIHFWXOXL

FD XUPDUH D PRGLILF ULL FDX]HL WLQG VSUH ]HUR &X FkW YDORULOH FDX]HL VXQW PDL PDUL FX DWkW HIHFWXO

YDULD] PDLSX LQODYDULD LLOHFDX]HL

D E
E \ = + 
[ [

OLP \ = +  = 
OLP
\

D E  D[ + E
 \  = - - [ = - 
[ [  [ [

'HRDUHFH [! D E!  \  <   \ 

GHVFUHVF WRU


[

Q FD]XO vQ FDUH FDX]D WLQGH VSUH LQILQLW HIHFWXO PHGLX DGLF  HIHFWXO SH XQLWDWHD GH FDX] 

HVWH ]HUR $WXQFL FkQG FDX]D WLQGH F WUH ]HUR HIHFWXO SH ILHFDUH XQLWDWH GH FDX]  WLQGH VSUH LQILQLW

(IHFWXO PHGLX HVWH GHVFUHVF WRU GHFL FX FkW FDX]D HVWH PDL PDUH HIHFWXO SHXQLWDWHDGHFDX] HVWH

PDLPLF

[ E
F &H = \ = - 
\ D[ + E

OLP &H = - 
&H

[ OLP &H =  

- DE
 &H  =  -E D = > 
D[ + E D[ + E

&HHVWHFUHVF WRU

6H REVHUY  F  OD R PRGLILFDUH FX XQ SURFHQW D FDX]HL SHQWUX YDORUL PLFL DOH DFHVWHLD

WLQ]kQG F WUH ]HUR HIHFWXO VH PRGLILF  VFDGH FX XQ SURFHQW Q FD]XO YDORULORU PDUL DOH FDX]HL

PRGLILFDUHDFXXQSURFHQWDDFHVWHLDQXLPSOLF QLFLRPRGLILFDUHDHIHFWXOXL,QGLIHUHQWGHYDORULOH

FDX]HL OD PRGLILF UL FUHWHUL FX XQ SURFHQW DOH DFHVWHLD OH FRUHVSXQG PRGLILF UL VF GHUL DOH

HIHFWXOXL FXSULQVH vQWUH ]HUR L XQX &X FkW YDORULOH FDX]HL VXQW PDL PDUL FX DWkW PRGLILF ULOH

UHODWLYHDOHHIHFWXOXLVXQWPDLPLFL


31

\ DE[F[ DELFQXVXQWWR LHJDOLFX]HUR

*UDILFXODFHVWHLIXQF LLGHSLQGHGHSDUDPHWULLDELF'HH[HPSOXSHQWUXD!EF!VH

RE LQHXUP WRUXOJUDILF


\

E
\ = F[ + E =  [ = - 
F

\ = F >  [FRUHVSXQGHOXL\PLQLP
[
[ E
D


PLQ  \ -  - 

F F
[






D &P = \ = F[ + E 

'DF  F HVWH QHJDWLY DWXQFL &P HVWH GHVFUHVF WRU GHFL YDULD LLOH HIHFWXOXL FD U VSXQV OD

YDULD LDFDX]HLVXQWGLQFHvQFHPDLPLFL'DF EHVWHSR]LWLYvQVHDPQ F SHQWUXRFDX] PDLPLF 

GHFkWEFHIHFWXOFUHWHFDXUPDUHDFUHWHULLFDX]HL3HQWUXRFDX] PDLPDUHGHFkWEFHIHFWXO

VFDGH FD XUPDUH D FUHWHULL FDX]HL 'DF  E HVWH QHJDWLY HIHFWXO YD VF GHD FD XUPDUH D FUHWHULL

FDX]HL

Q FD]XO vQ FDUH F HVWH SR]LWLY &P HVWH FUHVF WRU GHFL YDULD LLOH HIHFWXOXL FD XUPDUH D

YDULD LLORU FDX]HL VXQW GLQ FH vQ FH PDL PDUL 'DF  E HVWH QHJDWLY vQVHDPQ  F  SHQWUX R FDX]  PDL

PLF  GHFkW EF HIHFWXO VFDGH FD XUPDUH D FUHWHULL FDX]HL 3HQWUX R FDX]  PDL PDUH GHFkW EF

HIHFWXOFUHWHFDXUPDUHDFUHWHULLFDX]HL'DF EHVWHSR]LWLYHIHFWXOYDFUHWHFDXUPDUHDFUHWHULL

FDX]HL


&P

E!
F!

E 


E


 [


 




D + E[ + F[
E \ = 
[

SHQWUXDF!

D
\
= +  OLP \ = = + 
OLP \




F[ -D D
 \  = [ =
[ F
E +  DF 
D
[  \  =  DF + E 
F

D





32
 

D
[  + 
F

 \  


\  _ E +  DF 



[ E[ + F[
&H F &H = \ = 
\ D + E[ + F[

OLP &H = 



OLP &H = 



 [


 \  D[  D! GHRDUHFH \ WUHEXLH V  ILH SR]LWLY LDU IXF LD SXWHUH HVWH R IXQF LH SR]LWLY  L

EGHRDUHFHDOWIHOVDURE LQHRIXQF LHOLQLDU 

\ \

E! E

 [  [

E!     E


(]
D&P DE[  JUDILFVLPLODUFXFHODOIXQF LHLLQL LDOH

\

E \ = = D[ JUDILFVLPLODUFXFHODOIXQF LHLLQL LDOH
[

[
[
F &H = \ = D E [  =E 
\ D[

&H

E!
E

[

E
E

'DF  E HVWH FXSULQV vQWUH ]HUR L XQX DWXQFL FDX]D YDULD]  vQ DFHODL VHQV FX HIHFWXO GDU

FRHILFLHQWXOPDUJLQDOILLQGGHVFUHVF WRUvQVHDPQ F YDULD LLOHHIHFWXOXLVXQWGLQFHvQFHPDLPLFL

'H DVHPHQHD L HIHFWXO SH XQLWDWHD GH FDX]  HVWH FX DWkW PDL PLF FX FkW FDX]D HVWH PDL PDUH

7RWXL GDF  H[LVW  R YDULD LH GH XQ SURFHQW D FDX]HL HIHFWXO YD YDULD FX E SURFHQWH LQGLIHUHQW GH

P ULPHDFDX]HL

'DF  E HVWH PDL PLF GHFkW XQX DWXQFL FDX]D YDULD]  vQ VHQV LQYHUV HIHFWXOXL &RHILFLHQWXO

PDUJLQDO ILLQG GHVFUHVF WRU vQVHDPQ  F  YDULD LLOH HIHFWXOXL VXQW GLQ FH vQ FH PDL PLFL 'H

DVHPHQHD L HIHFWXO SH XQLWDWHD GH FDX]  HVWH FX DWkW PDL PLF FX FkW FDX]D HVWH PDL PDUH 'DF 

H[LVW  R YDULD LH GH XQ SURFHQW D FDX]HL HIHFWXO YD YDULD FX E SURFHQWH LQGLIHUHQW GH P ULPHD

FDX]HL

'DF EHVWHPDLPDUHGHFkWXQXDWXQFLFDX]DYDULD] vQDFHODLVHQVFXHIHFWXO&RHILFLHQWXO

PDUJLQDOILLQGFUHVF WRUvQVHDPQ F YDULD LLOHHIHFWXOXLVXQWGLQFHvQFHPDLPDUL'HDVHPHQHDL


33
HIHFWXOSHXQLWDWHDGHFDX] HVWHFXDWkWPDLPDUHFXFkWFDX]DHVWHPDLPDUH'DF H[LVW RYDULD LH

GHXQSURFHQWDFDX]HLHIHFWXOYDYDULDFXESURFHQWHLQGLIHUHQWGHP ULPHDFDX]HL

3ULQ FRPSDUDUHD SURSULHW LORU LQGLFDWRULORU WHRUHWLFL DL IXQF LLORU GH UHJUHVLH  YDULD LH

FRQWLQX   FX LQGLFDWRULL HPSLULFL  YDULD LH GLVFUHW   DL FHORU GRX  YDULDELOH FDOFXOD L SH ED]D

\ - \ \ - \ [ - [
VHULHL VWDWLVWLFH  FP = FH =    VH YD SXWHD DOHJH DFHD IXQF LH
[ - [ \ [

GHUHJUHVLHDLF UXLLQGLFDWRULDXSURSULHW LDSURSLDWHFXLQGLFDWRULLHPSLULFL

'H H[HPSOX GDF  FRHILFLHQ LL PDUJLQDOL DL YDULDELOHL \ vQ UDSRUW GH YDULDELOD [ FDOFXOD L SH

ED]DVHULHLVWDWLVWLFHVXQWDSUR[LPDWLYLHJDOL

\
- \
\
- \
\ - \
K FW "W = Q  
[
- [
[
- [
[ - [

VHYDDOHJHIXQF LDOLQLDU <  DE[ VDXIXQF LDSXWHUH<  D[ vQFD]XOvQFDUHFRHILFLHQ LL

HPSLULFLGHHODVWLFLWDWHYRUILDSUR[LPDWLYLHJDOL

[
\
- \
[
\
- \
[ \ - \
K 
\
[
-[
\
[
-[
\ [ -[

'H UH LQXW F  vQ HFRQRPLD UHDO  GDWHOH VWDWLVWLFH UHOHY  FRUHOD LL GLYHUVH L FRQWUDGLFWRULL

FDUH QX SRW IL GHVFULVH FX R VLQJXU  IXQF LH PDWHPDWLF  Q DVWIHO GH FD]XUL VH UHFRPDQG  FD

LGHQWLILFDUHD PRGHOXOXL HFRQRPHWULF V  VH IDF  FX DMXWRUXO PDL PXOWRU IXQF LL GH UHJUHVLH XUPkQG

FD vQ ILQDO  vQ HWDSD GH YHULILFDUH D PRGHOXOXL  V  VH GHFLG  DVXSUD XQHL VLQJXUH IRUPH D

PRGHOXOXL

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFXQLIDFWRULDO

3DUDPHWULL XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VXQW UHSUH]HQWD L GH FRHILFLHQ LL IXQF LHL GH UHJUHVLH

DFFHSWDW  vQ HWDSD GH LGHQWLILFDUH D DFHVWXLD $FHWL SDUDPHWULL ILLQG QHFXQRVFX L HL YRU WUHEXL

HVWLPD L DSUR[LPD L SH ED]D GDWHORU H[SHULPHQWDOH VLVWHPDWL]DWH vQ VHULLOH VWDWLVWLFH DOH FHORU GRX 

YDULDELOH\L[SULQYDORULOH\ [  W =  Q 

)XQF LLOHGHUHJUHVLHDOHXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFXQLIDFWRULDOSRWILIXQF LLOLQDUH< DE[

VDXIXQF LLQHOLQLDUHFDGHH[HPSOX

 IXQF LDSXWHUH<  D[ 
V
 IXQF LDH[SRQHQ LDO <  H


 IXQF LDGHJUDGXOGRL<  DE[ F[ 

F
 IXQF LDORJLVWLF  < = ] 
+ H

'HRDUHFH vQ QXPHURDVH FD]XUL IXQF LLOH QHOLQLDUH FXUELOLQLL SRW IL OLQLDUL]DWH HVWLPDUHD

SDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFVHYDD[DQXPDLSHFD]XOPRGHOHORUOLQLDUH/LQLDUL]DUHDXQXL

PRGHO QHOLQLDU VH SRDWH IDFH SULQ PDL PXOWH SURFHGHH FXP DU IL ORJDULWPDUHD PRGHOXOXL

HFRQRPHWULFVFKLPE ULGHYDULDELO VWDELOLUHDDUELWUDU DYDORULLXQRUSDUDPHWULHWF

'HH[HPSOX

/LQLDUL]DUHDSULQORJDULWPDUH

 )LH PRGHOXO QHOLQLDU H[SULPDW SULQ IXQF LD SXWHUH  \   D [  X  3ULQ WUDQVIRUPDUH

ORJDULWPLF DFHVWDGHYLQH

OQ\  OQDEOQ[ OQX VDX

\ $E[ X 

XQGH
\ OQ\ 


34
 $ OQD

[ OQ[ 

X OQX 
V
&D]XOPRGHOXOXLQHOLQLDUH[SRQHQ LDO\  H
X 

3ULQORJDULWPDUHDFHVWDGHYLQH
OQ\  DE[ OQX \ DE[ X 

/LQLDUL]DUHDSULQVFKLPEDUHGHYDULDELOH
)LHPRGHOXOQHOLQLDU\  E E [E [ BBBE [ X 

1RWkQGFX[  [ [  [ [  [ VHRE LQHPRGHOXOOLQLDUPXOWLIDFWRULDO

\  E E [ E [ E [ X 

/LQLDUL]DUHDSULQIL[DUHDDUELWUDU DYDORULLXQRUSDUDPHWUL

$FHVW PRGHO SRDWH IL DSOLFDW DWXQFL FkQG SH ED]D XQHL DQDOL]H HFRQRPLFH D IHQRPHQHORU

VWXGLDWH VH SRDWH HYDOXD YDORDUHD XQXL SDUDPHWUX 'H H[HPSOX IXQF LD ORJLVWLF  VH SUHWHD]  IRDUWH

ELQHODGHVFULHUHDHYROX LHLFRQVXPXOXL\XQXLDQXPLWSURGXVvQIXQF LHGHYHQLWXOFRQVXPDWRUXOXL

[ 'DU FRQVXPXOXQXLDQXPLWSURGXVDUHDQXPLWHOLPLWHUD LRQDOHUHVSHFWLYXQQLYHOGHVDWXUD LH

QLYHOHVWLPDWSULQSDUDPHWUXOHDOIXQF LHLORJLVWLFH6WDELOLQGYDORDUHDSDUDPHWUXOXLSULQFRQVWDQWD

F  DFHVW OXFUX VH SRDWH IDFH ILH SULQ FDOFXOH VWDWLVWLFH GH VSHFLDOLWDWH ILH SULQ SUHOXDUHD YDORULL

DFHVWXLD GH OD R DU  GH]YROWDW  XQGH FRQVXPXO DFHOXL SURGXV VD VWDELOL]DW  IXQF LD ORJLVWLF  VH

SRDWHWUDQVIRUPDvQWURIXQF LHOLQLDU 

F F F
\ = -  = H OQ -  = D + E[ 
+H
\

\

F
\ DE[ XQGH \ = OQ -  
\

5HYHQLQGODSUREOHPDHVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFDFHWLDSRWILFDOFXOD L

FXDMXWRUXOPDLPXOWRUPHWRGHFXPDUIL

D PHWRGDSXQFWHORUHPSLULFH03(

E PHWRGDSXQFWHORUPHGLL030

F PHWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWH0&003

G PHWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWHJHQHUDOL]DW 

H PHWRGDYHURVLPLOLW LLPD[LPH090FXLQIRUPD LHOLPLWDW VDXFRPSOHW 

0HWRGHOH D L E VH IRORVHVF DWXQFL FkQG QX VH XUP UHWH R ULJRDUH VWDWLVWLF  D FDOFXOHORU

GDWRULW  VLPSOLW LL L UDSLGLW LL FDOFXOHORU VDX FkQG DSOLFDUHD 0&003 HVWH DQHYRLRDV 

QHFHVLWkQGFDOFXOHFRPSOLFDWH

0HWRGHOH G L H DX PDL PXOW YDORDUH WHRUHWLF  GHRDUHFH vQ HFRQRPLH LSRWH]HOH SH FDUH VH

IXQGDPHQWHD]  SRW IL DFFHSWDWH FX PXOW  UH LQHUH vQ SOXV FDOFXOHOH FRPSOLFDWH SH FDUH OH VROLFLW 

P UHVFPXOWFRVWXOHVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORUI U DJHQHUDRFUHWHUHSHP VXU DSUHFL]LHLHVWLPD LLORU

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOOLQLDUXQLIDFWRULDOSUHVXSXQH

 H[LVWHQ DVHULHLVWDWLVWLFHDFHORUGRX YDULDELOHHFRQRPLFH

7DEHOXO



[  \  [  [ \ 
\
=D

+E [

X = \ - \
 
 X  

[ \  [  [ \   = \  - \
  

\ =D
+E [   X
X  

     
      
     

[  \  [  [ \  
X = \  - \
  

\ =D
+E [  
X  
Q

XW =  
[  \  [  [ \  \

 
X W



35
  PRGHOXOHFRQRPHWULFOLQLDU

\  DE[  X        

\ = D
+ E[         

X = \
- \

       

XQGH

\  [   YDORULOHHPSLULFHDOHYDULDELOHORUGLQVHULDVWDWLVWLF DDFHVWRUD

DE SDUDPHWULLPRGHOXOXL

E
D  HVWLPD LLOHDFHVWRUD

X  YDULDELODHURDUH

X HVWLPD LDOXLX  
W

 XWLOL]DUHDXQHLPHWRGHGHHVWLPDUHSHQWUXDFDOFXODHVWLPDWRULLSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXL

QDFHVWVHQVQHUHIHULPOD

D 0HWRGD SXQFWHORU HPSLULFH 03( FRQVW vQDOHJHUHDXQXLQXP UGHSXQFWHHPSLULFH

0[   \   HJDO FX QXP UXO SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL &RRUGRQDWHOH DFHVWRU SXQFWH VH LQWURGXF vQ

IXQF LD GH UHJUHVLH D PRGHOXOXL L YD UH]XOWD XQ VLVWHP GH HFXD LL HJDO FX QXP UXO DFHVWRUD 'H

H[HPSOX vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL OLQLDU YH]L UHOD LD   YRU WUHEXL DOHVH GRX  SXQFWH )LH DFHVWHD

0 [ \ L0  [ \ 

\ [  \
  

+ E[
= D 

\ \ [ \

=
  
D E = 

\ + E[
= D
 [

 [

 

 [  [
 

'HUHJXO DOHJHUHDSXQFWHORUHPSLULFHVHIDFHILHSHED]DUHSUH]HQW ULLJUDILFHDFHORUGRX 

VHULLVWDWLVWLFHvQVHQVXOF DFHVWHDDUWUHEXLV ILHIRDUWHDSURDSHGHGUHDSWDYLUWXDOWUDVDW VDXV ILH

LQWHUVHFWDWHGHDFHDVWDILHSULQDSUHFLHUHDF DFHVWHSXQFWHVXQWUHSUH]HQWDWLYHSHQWUXFDUDFWHUL]DUHD

YDULD LLORUFHORUGRX IHQRPHQHLQXVXQWUH]XOWDWXOXQRUFRQGL LLVSHFLDOH

E0HWRGDSXQFWHORUPHGLL030SUHVXSXQHFDFHOHGRX VHULLVWDWLVWLFHV ILHvPS U LWH

vQWUXQ QXP U GH VXEVHULL HJDO FX QXP UXO HVWLPDWRULORU 3HQWUX ILHFDUH VXEVHULH VH YRU FDOFXOD

PHGLLOH DULWPHWLFH DOH FHORU GRX  YDULDELOH $FHVWH YDORUL PHGLL VH YRU LQWURGXFH vQ IXQF LD GH

UHJUHVLH L VH YD FRQWLQXD SURFHGXUD FD vQ FD]XO 03( 'DF  QXP UXO WHUPHQLORU VHULLORU VWDWLVWLFH

QXHVWHGLYL]LELOFXQXP UXOSDUDPHWULORUVHYDUHQXQ DODXQQXP UGHWHUPHQLFHLPDLvQGHS UWD L

vQ WLPS VDX GH PHGLD FHORU GRX  YDULDELOH 'H H[HPSOX vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL OLQLDU QXP UXO

SDUDPHWULORU HVWH HJDO FX GRL 'DF  VHULLOH GH WLPS DOH FHORU GRX  YDULDELOH VH UHIHU  OD QRX 

SHULRDGH W =   VH YD UHQXQ D OD YDORULOH SULPHL SHULRDGH UHVSHFWLY OD [   L \   Q DFHVW FD] FHOH

GRX VHULLYRUIL


[
 = ([  + [
 + [
 + [
 )
[
 [
 [
 [



    
(\  + \ )
\ \ \ \
\
 = + \
 + \
 



[
 = ([  + [
 + [
 + [
 )
[
 [
 [
 [



    
(\  + \ )
\ \ \ \
\
 = + \
 + \
 



36
 3ULQLQWURGXFHUHDDFHVWRUYDORULvQUHOD LDUH]XOW 

\ [  \
  

+ E[
D = \
\ [  \
 
=
  
D E = 
+ E[
D = \  [

 [

 

 [  [
 

F 0HWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH 0&003HVWHWHKQLFDGHOXFUXFHDPDLGHVIRORVLW 

OD HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF 8WLOL]DUHD DFHVWHL PHWRGH SRUQHWH GH OD

XUP WRDUHOHUHOD LL

\  DE[  X   

\ = D
+ E[    



X = \  - \
 = \  -D
-E [  

XQGH

\  [   YDORULOHUHDOHDOHFHORUGRX IHQRPHQHHFRQRPLFHH[LVWHQWHvQ

VHULLOHVWDWLVWLFHDOHDFHVWRUD


\  YDORULOH WHRUHWLFH DOH YDULDELOHL \ RE LQXWH QXPDL vQ IXQF LH GH

L E 
YDORULOHIDFWRUXOXLHVHQ LDO[  LGHYDORULOHHVWLPDWRULORUSDUDPHWULORUDLEUHVSHFWLY D

X HVWLPD LLOHYDORULORUYDULDELOHUH]LGXDOHX  
W

3UDFWLF0&003FRQVW vQDPLQLPL]DIXQF LD

#

( ) = PLQ  " (\ ! )
#
 " (\ ! )
!
E
) D - \
! = PLQ -D
-E [  
! !

DGLF  D PLQLPL]D VXPD S WUDWHORU GLVWDQ HORU ID  GH D[D R< GLQWUH YDORULOH UHDOH \   L YDORULOH

WHRUHWLFH \
 

&RQGL LDGHPLQLPDIXQF LHLUH]XOW GLQ

'
( )(- ) =  (\ ) =  

)  D
E 

=  $  \ -D
-E [ -D
-E [
D
% & & & &
&
,
( )(- [ ) =  (\ ) =  

) D
E 
(

=   \ -D
-E [ [ -D
[ -E [
* )
E
+ + + + + + +
+
VLVWHPGHHFXD LLFHGHYLQHvQILQDO
. .

+E
QD [/ = \ /
/ - 0 / - 0

.     
1
D
[/
+E [/ = \ / [/
/ - 0

GLQFDUHVHYRUFDOFXODYDORULOHHVWLPDWRULORU

HVWLPD LDSDUDPHWUXOXL D 

 

 [ \
QD

+ E [ = \ D

+ E 2 = 2 =
D \

- E[  
2 2 Q Q Q

HVWLPD LDSDUDPHWUXOXL E 

Q \ 4
\ 4 [4
- [ \
[4 \ 4 [4 Q \ 4 [4 - \ 4 [4
Q
E = = =  
( [ 4 )
3 3 3
Q [4 Q [4 - [4 3
3 - [
[4 [4 Q


37
 GLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL[

([ 6 )
5 5 5 5
5
([ 6 - [ ) - [ 6 [ + [ [ 6 [ 6 5
s7 = = = - [ + [ = 
Q Q Q Q
8 8
[9 [9
8 8 8
= - [ + [ = - [ 
Q Q

\ < [<
- [ \
Q
E = : 
s;

FRYDULDQ DGLQWUHYDULDELOHOH\L[

([ = - [ )(\ = - \ ) ([ = \ = - [ = \ - [\ = + [ \ ) [= \ =
 FRY (\ [ )= = = -
Q Q Q

[ > \ > [ > \ > [ ? \ >

 - \ -[ +[ \ = - \ [ -[ \ +[ \ = -[ \ 
Q Q Q Q

FRY (\ [ ) ([ A - [ )(\ A - \ )

 E = @ = @    
sB ([ A - [ )

 FRHILFLHQWXOGHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU DFHORUGRX YDULDELOH

FRY\  [  s s

[ \
U  \  [  = U [  \  = U \  [  = E E = U \  [  
s s s s
[ \ \ [

XQGH C  D  DEDWHULOHPHGLLS WUDWLFHDOHYDULDELOHORU\L[

6LVWHPXO GH HFXD LL IRUPDW GLQ UHOD LLOH  L  UH]XOWDW vQ XUPD DSOLF ULL

0&003 SRDUW  QXPHOH L GH VLVWHP GH HFXD LL QRUPDOH $FHVW VLVWHPGHHFXD LLSRVHG FkWHYD

SURSULHW LFXPDUIL

'LQHFXD LDVHGHGXFHF 

 \ E ( - E[ E
-D ) = XE E  =    YDULDELOD DOHDWRDUH X F  HVWH GH VXP  QXO  L
=  0 X
E E

HYLGHQWGHPHGLH]HUR

( )=
G (\ )=
G
G G G G G H

G \ -D
-E [ - \

G \ =
G \   VXPD YDORULORU HPSLULFH 
H \ 

I
HVWHHJDO FXVXPDLQIRUPD LLORUWHRUHWLFH
I \ SULQFLSLXOFRQVHUY ULLLQIRUPD LLORU

'LQUH]ROYDUHDVLVWHPXOXLGHHFXD LLUH]XOW F 

= \ - E[   GUHDSWD GH UHJUHVLH

 D \J = D
+ E[ J  WUDVDW  SH ED]D 0&003 WUHFH SULQ

SXQFWXO 0  [  \  YH]LILJXUD

([ W - [ )
(\ - \ )([ W - [ ) [( \ - \ )([ W - [ )]
([ W )
W W
- [
W
 E = = =

([ W ) ([ W )
 
- [ - [

[ ]
\ - \
([ W )

([ W )
W 
- [ EW - [

[ - [
W W W
 = =  SDQWD GUHSWHL GH UHJUHVLH

([ W ) ([ W )
 
- [ - [
W

\K = D
+ E[ K  HVWH R PHGLH DULWPHWLF  D SDQWHORU GUHSWHORU FH SRW IL WUDVDWH SULQ SXQFWHOH


38
 \ E - \
0 [  \   L 0
W
[
W
\
W
  UHVSHFWLY EE =  SRQGHUDWH FX S WUDWXO
[E -[


DEDWHULORU  [ - [  YDULDELOHLIDFWRULDOH[YH]LILJXUD
W

V
V \ - \
E = V
\ [ - [ = D + E[ 
\

\R

U
U \ - \ 
E = U
[ - [

\Q 0T

\P
0 S


[P [Q [ [R [

)LJXUD


L L L
EM ( [M - [) + EL ( [L - [) +
K + EN ( [N - [)
E = L L L 
( [M - [) + ( [L - [) + K + ( [N - [)

L E VHYRUSXWHDFDOFXODYDORULOHWHRUHWLFH
'XS HVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUDLESULQYDORULOH D

DOHIHQRPHQXOXLH[SOLFDW\
\K = D
+ E[ K LDSRLHVWLPD LLOHYDULDELOHLDOHDWRDUHXSULQ X
O = \ O - \
O 

YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQHOHL

9HULILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULF

QWUXFkW PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF vQ HWDSHOH GH VSHFLILFDUH LGHQWLILFDUH L HVWLPDUH VH

IXQGDPHQWHD]  SH DFFHSWDUHD XQRU LSRWH]H GH OXFUX FkW L SH GDWH H[SHULPHQWDOH GH VRQGDM HVWH

QHFHVDU FD vQDLQWH GH XWLOL]DUHD VD FD LQVWUXPHQW SHUWLQHQW VFRSXOXL XUP ULW DFHVWD V  ILH YHULILFDW

WHVWDWILOWUDWQDFHDVW HWDS VHSXQHSUREOHPDVLPLOLWXGLQLLGLQWUHPRGHOXOHFRQRPLFUHDOGHVFULV

GHVHULLOHVWDWLVWLFHDOHIHQRPHQHORUDQDOL]DWHLPRGHOXOWHRUHWLFGHQDWXU HFRQRPHWULF FRQVWUXLW

LUH]ROYDW

Q HFRQRPLH VSUH GHRVHELUH GH GRPHQLXO WHKQLF GH H[HPSOX QX SXWHP YRUEL GH R

VLPLOLWXGLQH DEVROXW  vQWUH PRGHOXO WHRUHWLF LPRGHOXOUHDOFXPSRDWHV H[LVWHvQWUHPDFKHWDXQHL

FO GLUL L FO GLUHD FRQVWUXLW  FL GH R VLPLOLWXGLQH VWDWLVWLF  vQWUH FHOH GRX  PRGHOH vQ VHQVXO F 

PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF SRVHG  L GHVFULH vQ PDUH vQ PHGLH SULQFLSDOHOH FDUDFWHULVWLFL DOH PRGHOXOXL

HFRQRPLFUHDO

3UDFWLF DFFHSWDUHD HFRQRPHWULF  D PRGHOXOXL WHRUHWLF FD PRGHO VLPLODU FD DSUR[LPD LH

VWDWLVWLF HFKLYDOHQW FXPRGHOXOUHDOSUHVXSXQH

 9HULILFDUHD LSRWH]HORU SH FDUH VH IXQGDPHQWHD]  HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO

HFRQRPHWULF

 9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLHVWLPDWRULORUSDUDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULF

 9HULILFDUHDVLPLOLWXGLQLLPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULF


39
 9HULILFDUHDLSRWH]HORUSHFDUHVHIXQGDPHQWHD] HVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHO

HFRQRPHWULF

QJHQHUDOHVWLPDWRUXOVDXHVWLPD LDHVWHRDSUR[LPD LHDXQHLGLPHQVLXQLSULYLQGXQDQXPLW

IHQRPHQ $FHDVW  GLPHQVLXQH YROXP VXSUDID  YDORDUH HWF H[DFW  VWDELO  L UHSHWDELO  DGLF 

FRQVWDQW UHSUH]LQW SDUDPHWUXOP VXUDXQHLFDUDFWHULVWLFLDOXQHLvQVXLULDXQLW LORUVWDWLVWLFH

6WDWLVWLFDFDOFXOHD] SDUDPHWULLFDUDFWHULVWLFLORUXQLW LORUVWDWLVWLFHDOHXQHLSRSXOD LLvQXUPD

XQHL REVHUY UL WRWDOH DVXSUD FROHFWLYLW LL VWDWLVWLFH 'DF  GDWHOH SULYLQG YDORULOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU

SURYLQGLQWURREVHUYDUHVHOHFWLY VRQGDMLQGLFDWRULLFDOFXOD LGLQDFHVWHGDWHUHSUH]LQW HVWLPD LLOH

VWDWLVWLFH DOH SDUDPHWULORU DGLF  DOH LQGLFDWRULORU FDUH VDU IL RE LQXW GLQ SUHOXFUDUHD GDWHORU

SURYHQLWH GLQWUR REVHUYDUH WRWDO  'DU VWDWLVWLFD QX IRORVHWH

W RULFH IHO GH DSUR[LPD LL GH HVWLPD LL
DOHSDUDPHWULORUFLQXPDLHVWLPD LLGHPD[LP YHURVLPLOLWDWH 

'LQ DFHVW PRWLY HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VH IXQGDPHQWHD]  SH

FkWHYDLSRWH]HSHFDUHWUHEXLHV OHSRVHGHPRGHOXOHFRQRPHWULF\ X  DE[ X X X 

$FHVWHLSRWH]HVHUHIHU OD

, Y  &HOH GRX  YDULDELOH \ X  L [ X  VXQW REVHUYDWH I U  HURUL GH P VXU  X X HVWHRYDULDELO DOHDWRDUH

LDU YDULDELOD [ X  HVWH XQ IHQRPHQ FX YDORUL SUHGHWHUPLQDWH ! YDULDELOD H[SOLFDW  \ X  HVWH OD

UkQGXOHLRYDULDELO DOHDWRDUH

,Z  9DULDELOD DOHDWRDUH X X  HVWH GH PHGLH QXO  0X X    L GH GLVSHUVLH FRQVWDQW 
] ] ] ]
'  X^  = '  X]  = K= '  X\  = s[ "W =  Q ,SRWH]D,Z SUHVXSXQHF HURULOHX X VXQW
_ _ _ _
KRPRVFHGDVWLFHLQXKHWHURVFHGDVWLFH '  X `  '  X _  K '  Xb  sa 

,c  9DORULOHYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHVXQWLQGHSHQGHQWHQXVXQWFRUHODWHDGLF QXH[LVW IHQRPHQXO

GHDXWRFRUHODUHDHURULORU

L M HURULOHVXQW LQGHSHQGHQ WH

FRY X e  X d  =  

L M HURULOHVXQW DXWRFRUHODWH

, f  9DULDELOD DOHDWRDUH X X  XUPHD]  GLVWULEX LD QRUPDO  GH PHGLH ]HUR L GH DEDWHUH PHGLH
h
S WUDWLF FRQVWDQW LHJDO FX s g = sg = FW UHVSHFWLY/X X  1 i 

'DF  DFHVWH LSRWH]H SRW IL DFFHSWDWH LDU HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXLOLQLDUXQLIDFWRULDO

\ X  DE[ X X X DWXQFLVHSRWGHPRQVWUDXUP WRDUHOH

6H HIHFWXHD]  R VHOHF LH GH YROXP Q DGLF  VH REVHUY  YDORULOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLL [ L SHQWUX

ILHFDUHYDORDUHREVHUYDW YDORULOHFDUDFWHULVWLFLL \  = \ 6HRE LQHDVWIHOVHOHF LD[ X \ X  X k

Wml npo l qsr
[=[
j W

3HED]DDFHVWHLVHOHF LLVHHVWLPHD] SDUDPHWULLDLEGLQPRGHOXOGHUHJUHVLHOLQLDU \ X  DE[ X 

X X 

 3DUDPHWULLDLESRWILHVWLPD LSULQ

 PHWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH SULQ FDUH VH PLQLPL]HD]  VXPD S WUDWHORU HURULORU DGLF 

IXQF LD
x

( ) = PLQ ( )
u x u
v
E
) D v
t wX = PLQ
t w \ v -D
-E [ 
v v

PHWRGDYHURVLPLOLW LLPD[LPHSULQFDUHVHPD[LPL]HD] IXQF LDGHYHURVLPLOLWDWHDGLF 

/ (\  D E ) = I (\  ) I (\ )  I ( \ ) W =   Q XQGHIHVWHUHSDUWL LDFDUDFWHULVWLFLL\

W  Q

7HRUHPD

'DF  YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  X X  HVWH UHSDUWL]DW  QRUPDO DYkQG PHGLD HJDO  FX ]HUR L DEDWHUHD

PHGLHS WUDWLF  i DWXQFLPHWRGDYHURVLPLOLW LLPD[LPHHVWHHFKLYDOHQW FXPHWRGDFHORUPDLPLFL

S WUDWH


y
9H]LWHRUHPDL


40
 'HPRQVWUD LH

Q FD]XO PRGHOXOXL OLQLDU \ = D + E[ + X XHVWHUHSDUWL]DW 1 i FHHDFHHVWH HFKLYDOHQW

FX\UHSDUWL]DW 1D+E[ 

)XQF LDGHYHURVLPLOLWDWHDFDUDFWHULVWLFLL\HVWH

(
E
/ \ z D )= I (\ ` ) I (\ _ )  I (\ b ) 
 
( } { { ) ( )|
{ } | { { {

( )=
 ~

|  ~

|

E
/ \ D H  H 
p s p s

( )

( ) =


E
/ \ D H 

p s

0HWRGDYHURVLPLOLW LLPD[LPHSUHVXSXQHPD[LPL]DUHDIXQF LHLGHYHURVLPLOLWDWH

(\ )
 

PD[ E
/ \ D  PD[ E
OQ /  \  D  = PD[ OQ - -D
-E [ 

p s s

Q

'HRDUHFH HVWHFRQVWDQW OQ = N=FRQVWDQW

p s

(\ ) (\ )
  

PD[ OQ - -D
-E [ = N + PD[ - -D
-E [ =


p s s s


( ) ( )
 

= N + - -D
-E = N + -

PLQ PLQ
\ [ E
) D




s s

Q FRQFOX]LH D GHWHUPLQD PD[LPXO IXQF LHL GH YHURVLPLOLWDWH HVWH HFKLYDOHQW FX D GHWHUPLQD

PLQLPXOVXPHLS WUDWHORUHURULORU

2EVHUYD LH

6H WLH F  HVWLPDWRULL GH YHURVLPLOLWDWH PD[LP  VXQW HVWLPDWRUL QHGHSODVD L FRQVLVWHQ L L

HILFLHQ LDGLF 

 = D 0  E
  0  D  = E  HVWLPDWRULLVXQWQHGHSODVD L


 D
D E
E HVWLPDWRULLVXQWFRQVLVWHQ L

  RULFH DOW HVWLPDWRU SHQWUX D L E DUH GLVSHUVLD PDL PDUH GHFkW GLVSHUVLD OXL D
 L E 

HVWLPDWRULLVXQWHILFLHQ L

 QFD]XOUHSDUWL LHLQRUPDOHDYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHHVWLPDWRULLRE LQX LSULQPHWRGDFHORUPDL

PLFL S WUDWH VXQW QHGHSODVD L FRQVLVWHQ L L HILFLHQ L Q FRQVHFLQ  DFHWL HVWLPDWRUL SRW IL

FRQVLGHUD LGUHSWFHLPDLEXQLvQSURFHVXOGHGHFL]LHVDXGHPRGHODUHHFRQRPHWULF 

7HRUHPD

'DF  YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  HVWH UHSDUWL]DW  QRUPDO DYkQG PHGLD HJDO  FX ]HUR L GLVSHUVLD

s
= FW  DWXQFL E HVWHUHSDUWL]DW 1 E  

s

( )

[ - [


41
 'HPRQVWUD LH

(\ - \ )([ - [ ) ([ - [ ) - \ ([ - [ ) ([ -[ )


\
\


E = = = =

a \ 

([ -[ ) ([ -[ ) ([ -[ )

XQGH

[ - [
a = 

([ - [ )

X a 1 (  s ) \ a 1 (D + E[  s ) W=Q

Q FRQFOX]LH E  ILLQG FRPELQD LH OLQLDU  GH YDULDELOH DOHDWRDUH UHSDUWL]DWH QRUPDO HVWH L HO

UHSDUWL]DWQRUPDO


0  E  =
a 0  \  =
a  D + E[  =
a D +
Ea [ 

'  E  =
a '  \  =s
a 

6HFDOFXOHD] 

[ - [
Q Q

a
W
= =  
W
Q
W = W =
 [W

- [

W =

([ )
[ - [ [ [ - [ [ + Q[
- [ [
a [ = = = =

( ) ( ) ( )

[ - [ [ - [ [ - [

([ - [ ) 
  a = = 

([ )

( )

- [
[ - [

'HFL

0  E  =E 

s

'  E  = 

([ - [ )

7HRUHPD

'DF  YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  HVWH UHSDUWL]DW  QRUPDO DYkQG PHGLD HJDO  FX ]HUR L GLVSHUVLD



[
s = FW  DWXQFL D
HVWHUHSDUWL]DW 1 D s + 

([ )

Q
- [


42
 'HPRQVWUD LH

\



= \ -E
D [ = - [ a \ = - [a \ =
b \ 

Q Q

XQGH


b = - [ a W=Q
Q

X a 1 (  s ) \ a 1 (D + E[  s ) W=Q

Q FRQFOX]LH D
 ILLQG FRPELQD LH OLQLDU  GH YDULDELOH DOHDWRDUH UHSDUWL]DWH QRUPDO HVWH L HO

UHSDUWL]DWQRUPDO

 =
0  D b 0  \  = b  D + E[  = b D + Eb [ 

'  =
 D b '  \  =s
b 

6HFDOFXOHD] 



b = - [ a =- [
a = 



Q



b [ = - [ a [ = [ - [
a [ =  



Q


  [  [

b = - [a = - a + [ a = +

([ )

Q Q Q Q
- [

'HFL

 =D
0  D


 
 [ 
'  =s
 D +

Q
([
- [ )




7HRUHPD

'DF [  HVWHIL[DWLDUYDULDELODUH]LGXDO HVWHUHSDUWL]DW QRUPDODYkQGPHGLDHJDO FX]HUR



   ([  - [ )
HVWHUHSDUWL]DW 1 D + E[ 

LGLVSHUVLD s  = FW  DWXQFL \
=D
+E [  s  +

([  )
Q
- [


'HPRQVWUD LH



\ 
 
= \ + E ([ )= ([ )a 

=D
\ +E [ - [ + - [ \  =
  Q
   


 

= + ([ - [ )a  \  = g  \ 
      
Q

XQGH


g  = + ([  - [ )a  W=Q
Q

X a 1 (  s  ) \  a 1 (D + E[  s  ) W=Q


43
 'HFL  ILLQG FRPELQD LH OLQLDU  GH YDULDELOH DOHDWRDUH UHSDUWL]DWH QRUPDO HVWH L HO
\

UHSDUWL]DWQRUPDO
    
0  \  =
  b 0  \   =
 g   D + E[   =
 g  D +
  Eg  [  
   
$  $ $ $ $
'  \  =
 #g ! '  \ !  =s"
 #g ! 
! !

6HFDOFXOHD] 
( ( (


' g ) =
' + ([ & - [ )a ) =+ ([ & - [ )
' a) =
) % ) % ) %
Q
, , ,


. g - [- =
. + ([ * - [ )a - [- = [ + ([ * -[ )
. a- [- = [ + ([ * -[ )= [* 
- + - + - +
Q
3 3
([ 4 - [ ) ([ 4 -[ )
3 3 0 3
0  0  0 
g1 = + ([ 4 - [ )a1 = + a1 + ([ - [ ) a1
4 = +
1
3 

([1 )
/ 2 2
1/ Q

Q Q 1/ 2 1/ 2 Q 0
-[
1
/ 2
'HFL

 = D + E[
0  \ ;

:

: :  ([ ; - [ ) 
'  =s8
 \ + :
6
([ 7 )
Q
- [
7
5 9

7HRUHPD

'DF  YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  HVWH UHSDUWL]DW  QRUPDO DYkQG PHGLD HJDO  FX ]HUR L GLVSHUVLD
=
s< = FW   DWXQFL HURDUHD SUHYL]LXQLL >
X = \ > - \
>  W    Q HVWH UHSDUWL]DW 

([ A )

D  -[
1  s B  - - @ D 

([ A )
Q
-[
A
? C

'HPRQVWUD LH

E
X = \ E - \
E = \ E -D
-E [ E 

XQGH

&&
 E VXQWUHSDUWL]D LQRUPDO
D

XG a 1 (  s F ) \ G a 1 (D + E[ G s F ) W=Q

Q FRQFOX]LH X
H  ILLQG FRPELQD LH OLQLDU  GH YDULDELOH DOHDWRDUH UHSDUWL]DWH QRUPDO HVWH L HD

UHSDUWL]DW QRUPDO

I  = 0 \
0 X I - \
I  = 0 \ I  - 0 D
+E [ I  = D + E[ I - D - E[ I = 

K ) = 0 (X ) - 0 (XK ((\ K
K ) ) = 0 (\ K ) - 0 (\ K K ) + 0 (\ K )
J J J J J J J
' (X K ) = 0X
K  =0 -\

\
L L L L L
0  \ M  = '  \ M  + 0  \ M  = s N +  D + E[ M  

O
Q
QO O Q Q O O   [ -[  Q O

0 \  = '
 \  +0 \
 =sS + + (D + E[ ) 
R O
Q Q

Q  [ -[ 

T P


44
 U U U
0 \ U
\ U  = 0  D + E[ U + X U  D
+E[  = 0  D + E[ U  D
+E[  + 0  X U  D
+E[ 
V 
U
=  D + E[ U 
 + 0  XU  D
+E[ 



+E
0  XZ  D [ Z  = 0  X Z  \ - E [ + E[ Z

X


E = a Y \ Y
Y W [

\ \


+E  = 0 \ - [ a ] ] + [ ] ]
=
0  X  D [
^ ^ ^
X
] _ ` \
^ ]
_ `
a \


\ \
= 0 X \  - 0  [ a ] ]  + 0  [ ] ]
^ ] _ ` \ X
^ ^ ]
_ `
a \ X
^ 

e a
   ca
0  Xd \  = 0 
g \ f Xd  = 0  Xd  = s 
Q
f b Q Q

GHRDUHFHHURULOHVXQWQHFRUHODWHvQWUHHOH
h h h
a
i i a
i i i i
0 [
k l i \ X  = [0 
j k l i \ k la
X  = [
j i 0 \ X 
j
m m m
n n n n n n
0 [
o n p qa
p qa
\ X  = [ 0
o o n \ X  = [
o p qa
o n 0 \ X 
o

Q Q

a N 0  \N XW  = a N 0  D + E[N + XN XW  =
N = N =

Q Q Q

= a N 0  D + E[N XW  + a N 0  XN XW  = a N  D + E[N  0  XW  + a W 0  XW XW 
N = N = N =

 [ - [ 
W
= s
Q

 [W - [ 
W =

 'HFL
w

w  [ t - [ 

+E
0  Xt  D [ t  = su + s 
Q
w
[t - [ 
t

r v
'LQUHOD LLOHDQWHULRDUHUH]XOW F 

}
} } } } }
  [ z - [ 
' z
 X  =s{ +  D + E[ z  +s{ + y +  D + E[ z  -
}
Q
[z - [ 
z


x |


} }
} } }
  [ z - [    [ z - [ 
- s { + -  D + E[ z  =s {  - -
y } y }
Q Q
z - [  z - [ 
z z
 [  [

x |
x |

7HRUHPD

'DF  YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  HVWH UHSDUWL]DW  QRUPDO DYkQG PHGLD HJDO  FX ]HUR L GLVSHUVLD

  Q

s~ = FW  DWXQFL XW HVWHXQHVWLPDWRUQHGHSODVDWSHQWUXGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH s 
Q -  W =


45
 'HPRQVWUD LH

7UHEXLHGHPRQVWUDWF 


0
X =s 

Q - 

)RORVLQGWHRUHPDDQWHULRDU UH]XOW F 

  
0
X =
0  X  = '  =
X

Q - Q - Q -


 [ -[ 
   [ -[  
=  - - s = Q -- s =s
Q -

Q

Q -


[ -[  [ -[ 

 

7HRUHPD

'DF  YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  HVWH UHSDUWL]DW  QRUPDO DYkQG PHGLD HJDO  FX ]HUR L GLVSHUVLD

s = FW   DWXQFL HURDUHD SUHYL]LXQLL
X = \ - \
 HVWH UHSDUWL]DW 

([ )

 - [
1  s  + + SHQWUXRULFHt

([ )
Q
- [

'HPRQVWUD LH

6HUHLDGHPRQVWUD LDWHRUHPHLXQGHWVHvQORFXLHWHFXtQLGHRDUHFHtQHVWHPDLPDUH

FDQSHQWUXRULFHN Q 0  X X  =  UH]XOW F 

N Q+ t




+E
a 0  \ X  =  L 0  XQ+ t \  =  'HFL 0  X  D [  =  

QILQDOUH]XOW F 

 ([ - [ )
' (X
)=s + (D + E[ ) +s  + + + (D + E[ ) - 

([ )
Q
- [

 ([ - [ )

- (D + E[
) =s  + + 

([ )
Q
- [

'HPRQVWUD LDSHQWUXQRUPDOLWDWHLYDORDUHDPHGLHHVWHLGHQWLF FXFHDGHODWHRUHPD

'HRDUHFH FHOH SDWUX LSRWH]H ,  ,  ,  L ,  DX IRVW DFFHSWDWH D SULRUL vQ HWDSD GH HVWLPDUH D

SDUDPHWULORUvQDFHDVW HWDS XUPHD] FDHOHV ILHWHVWDWHLDUHYHQWXDOHOHDEDWHULGHODFHULQ HOHORU

V ILHFRUHFWDWHSULQXWLOL]DUHDXQRUSURFHGXULHFRQRPHWULFHDGHFYDWHILHF UHLDEDWHUL

'H UHJXO  vQ FD]XO XQXL QXP U PDUH DO REVHUYD LLORU HIHFWXDWH W =  Q  Q a  LSRWH]D GH

QRUPDOLWDWHDYDULDELOHLHURDUHX VHDFFHSW I U UH]HUYH

9HULILFDUHDLSRWH]HORUGHIXQGDPHQWDUHD0&003

, 9DULDELOHOH[L\QXVXQWDIHFWDWHGHHURULGHP VXU 

$FHDVW LSRWH] VHSRDWHYHULILFDFXUHJXODFHORUWUHLVLJPDUHJXO FDUHFRQVW vQYHULILFDUHD

XUP WRDUHORUUHOD LL

[ ([  s ) [ - s < [ < [ + s 
W [ [ W [


46
 \ (
\ s ) \ - s < \ < \ + s 

XQGH

([ W )

- [
s = 
[
Q

(\ )

- \
W
s = 
\
Q

'DF  YDORULOH DFHVWRU YDULDELOH DSDU LQ LQWHUYDOHORU [

W
([ s
[
) L \ (
\ s ) 
LSRWH]DGHPDLVXVSRDWHILDFFHSWDW I U UH]HUYH

$FHDVW  LSRWH]  UHIHULWRDUH OD FDOLWDWHD GDWHORU vQUHJLVWUDWH VH FRQVLGHU  UH]ROYDW  vQ HWDSD

GHSUHOXFUDUHDGDWHORUREVHUYDWHVWDWLVWLFVDXFHOPDLWkU]LXvQHWDSDGHLGHQWLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXL

, ,SRWH]DGHKRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWHDYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH9DULDELODDOHDWRDUHUH]LGXDO 

XHVWHGHPHGLHQXO 0 (X
)=  LDUGLVSHUVLDHL V HVWHFRQVWDQW LLQGHSHQGHQW GH;

3H ED]D DFHVWHL LSRWH]H VH SRDWH DGPLWH F  OHJ WXUD GLQWUH < L ; HVWH UHODWLY VWDELO 

&RQWUDULXODFHVWHLLSRWH]HHVWHKHWHURVFHGDVWLFLWDWHD

Q FD]XO PRGHOXOXL OLQLDU \ = D + E[ + X  UH]LGXXULOH X
= \ - \
= \ -D
-E [  VXQW

KRPRVFHGDVWLFH GDF  GLVSHUVLLOH ORU VXQW FRQVWDQWH L HJDOH FX GLVSHUVLLOH WHRUHWLFH SHQWUX RULFH W L

VXQWLQGHSHQGHQWHGHYDULDELODH[RJHQ [

V 
= 0 X =s  "W =  Q 

&RQWUDULXO KRPRVFHGDVWLFLW LL HVWH KHWHURVFHGDVWLFLWDWHD FDUH vQVHDPQ  F  HURULOH QX DX

GLVSHUVLLOHHJDOHFLGLIHULWH 0  X  0  X   0  X  s 

'DF  GLVSHUVLLOH QX PDL VXQW HJDOH HVWLPDWRULL U PkQ QHGHSODVD L GDU QX PDL VXQW HILFDFH

0&003 FRQGXFkQG OD R VXEHVWLPDUH D SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL LQIOXHQ kQG VHQVLELO L FDOLWDWHD

GLIHULWHORUWHVWHVWDWLVWLFHDSOLFDWHDFHVWXLD

'HSLVWDUHDKHWHURVFHGDVWLFLW LLVHSRDWHUHDOL]DSULQPDLPXOWHSURFHGHH

,  3URFHGHXO JUDILF  FDUH FRQVW  vQ FRQVWUXLUHD FRUHORJUDPHL SULYLQG YDORULOH YDULDELOHL

IDFWRULDOH [ L DOH YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH X 'DF  SH P VXUD FUHWHULL VF GHULL YDORULORU YDULDELOHL

IDFWRULDOH[VHREVHUY RFUHWHUHVF GHUHDYDORULORUYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHXvQVHDPQ F FHOHGRX 

YDULDELOHVXQWFRUHODWHLQXLQGHSHQGHQWH

X
X

[ [

)LJXUD&RUHODUHSR]LWLY   )LJXUD&RUHODUHQHJDWLY 

, 3URFHGHXOGLVSHUVLLORUYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH

$FHVW SURFHGHX VH SRDWH DSOLFD DWXQFL FkQG VH GLVSXQH GH VHULL OXQJL GH GDWH Q DFHVW FD]

VHULD YDORULORU YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH VH vPSDUWH vQ GRX  VDX PDL PXOWH JUXSH SHQWUX ILHFDUH JUXS 

FDOFXOkQGXVH GLVSHUVLLLOH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH  V V   'DF  VH DFFHSW  LSRWH]D F  GLVSHUVLLOH

DFHVWRU JUXSH QX GLIHU  VHPQLILFDWLY VHDFFHSW LSRWH]DGHKRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWHLVHXWLOL]HD] WHVWXO

)LVKHU6QHGHFRU

 GDF  V V DWXQFLVHDFFHSW LSRWH]D, 

 GDF  V V DWXQFLVHUHVSLQJHLSRWH]D, 


47
 7HVWXO )LVKHU6QHGHFRU FRQVW  vQ FDOFXODUHD UDSRUWXOXL GLQWUH FHOH GRX  GLVSHUVLL GLVSHUVLD

DYkQG YDORDUHD FHD PDL PDUH ILLQG SODVDW  OD QXP U WRU LDU GDF  QXP UXO GH WHUPHQL DL VHULHL HVWH

LPSDU VH UHFRPDQG  HOLPLQDUHD WHUPHQXOXL GLQ PLMORFXO VHULHL DVWIHO vQFkW V  VH DMXQJ  OD

VXEHDQWLRDQHHJDOH


X  Q - N -  
V
) = =     

V
X  Q - N -  

 GDF  ) > )  DWXQFL LSRWH]D GH KRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWH HVWH LQILUPDW  GHFL HURULOH VXQW
F Q Q
a -  -
 

KHWHURVFHGDVWLFHHOLPLQDUHDDFHVWXLIHQRPHQI FkQGXVHFXDMXWRUXOPHWRGHLUHJUHVLHLSRQGHUDWH

 GDF  ) ) DWXQFLVHDFFHSW LSRWH]DGHKRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWH

F Q Q
a -  -
 

, &DOFXOXOFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU VLPSO 

(X )([ )
FRY (X  [ ) -X - [ X
([ - [ )
U
= = = 
s s Q s s Q s s

GDF YDORDUHDFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU HVWHDSUR[LPDWLYHJDO FX]HURU @DWXQFL

VHDFFHSW LSRWH]DGHKRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWHYDULDELOHOHXL[ILLQGLQGHSHQGHQWH

 GDF  YDORDUHD FRHILFLHQWXOXL GH FRUHOD LH OLQLDU  HVWH GLIHULW  GH ]HUR  U    DWXQFL VH

DUHVSLQJHLSRWH]DGHKRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWH

,  $FFHSWDUHD VDX UHVSLQJHUHD LSRWH]HL GH KRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWH VH PDL SRDWH UHDOL]D L FX

DMXWRUXOPHWRGHLDQDOL]HLYDULD LHL

&HOH GRX  UHVWULF LL HQXQ DWH PDL VXV VH UHDOL]HD]  GDF  YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  X L YDULDELOD

H[SOLFDWLY  [ VXQW LQGHSHQGHQWH 3H DFHDVW  SUHPLV  VH IXQGDPHQWHD]  XWLOL]DUHD PHWRGHL DQDOL]HL

YDULD LHLODDFFHSWDUHDVDXUHVSLQJHUHDLSRWH]HLGHKRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWH

0HWRGDDQDOL]HLYDULD LHLSRUQHWHGHODUHOD LD

\ - \ = \ - \
+ \
- \ 

(\ - \ ) = (\ - \
+ \
- \ ) 

 \ -\  = [ \
- \  + \ -\
]    



(\

- \ ) = [( \

- \ ) + (\ - \
) ] =
(\
- \ ) +
(\
- \
) + 
(\
- \ )( \ - \
)


'DU \ = D + E[ + X 

 \
=D
+E [ \ =D
+E [ 

 X
= \ - \


Q
<
 - \  \ + E[
- <  =  D - E[ X
-D

=  E [ - [ X

=  Q E FRYX  [  'DF 
Q

  
vPS U LPUHOD LDODQ s =s +s
+  E FRYX  [  
 [ X

3HQWUX FD HJDOLWDWHD V  VH YHULILFH HVWHQHFHVDUFD FRYX  [  =  E  $FFHSWDUHDLSRWH]HL

, SHED]DDQDOL]HLYDULD LHLFRQVW vQ


\

- \  = $
6H FDOFXOHD]   GDF  $ %& DWXQFL YDULDELOHOH X  L [  VXQW LQGHSHQGHQWH L VH



< - \  = %
DFFHSW , 


 \
-<
 =& GDF $%&DWXQFLX L[ VXQWFRUHODWHLVHUHVSLQJH, 


48
 

'DF  VH FRQVWDW  H[LVWHQ D IHQRPHQXOXL GH KHWHURVFHGDVWLFLWDWH DFHVWD WUHEXLH HOLPLQDW

GHRDUHFH SUH]HQ D OXL GHWHUPLQ  VXEHVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL L RE LQHUHD GH YDORUL YLFLDWH

ILLQGDIHFWDW FDOLWDWHDHVWLPDWRULORUDFHWLDQHPDLILLQGHILFLHQ LGLVSHUVLHPLQLP 

(OLPLQDUHDIHQRPHQXOXLGHKHWHURVFHGDVWLFLWDWHVHSRDWHUHDOL]DSULQXUP WRDUHOHSURFHGHH

D &RQVWUXLUHDPRGHOXOXLSHED]DDEDWHULORUFHQWUDWHDOHYDULDELOHORU

)LH \ = D + E[ + X        

\  =D
+E [          

\ = D + E[ + X         

BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

 \ - \ = E [ - [  +X      

W W W

\ = \ - \

\
=E [ +X
W W W W W
1RWkQGFX 

<

[ = [ - [ =E [
W W W W

 (VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWUXOXLESUHVXSXQHPLQLPL]DUHDIXQF LHL
   

( ) ( ) = PLQ (\  )
   

) E = PLQ \  -<  -E [  
     

LFDOFXOXOGHULYDWHLSDU LDOHDIXQF LHL

)
E  =   \ ( W

-E [

W
) (- [ W ) =  X
W
([ W - [ )= FRY (X
W
[
W
)= 

E 0HWRGDUHJUHVLHLSRQGHUDWH

)LHPRGHOXOLQL LDO \ = D + E[ + X 

+HWHURVFHGDVWLFLWDWHDSUHVXSXQH 0 X   s
FHHDFHvQVHDPQ 
 
s   = l s  
 
s   = l s  

       
 
s  = l s  

XQGHl HVWHXQFRHILFLHQWGHSRQGHUDUH

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXLSUHVXSXQHPLQLPL]DUHDIXQF LHL

 

 E  = PLQ
PLQ )  D
    \ - E[  
- D 
 s 

 !

 E  = PLQ
&RQIRUPUHOD LHL PLQ )  D
  \ - E[  
- D    
 l
"
Q UHOD LD  FDQWLW LOH s #  L l $  VXQW vQ JHQHUDOQHFXQRVFXWH6DFRQVWDWDWvQV F vQ

SUDFWLF  DEDWHULOH VWDQGDUG s & %  VXQW DSUR[LPDWLY SURSRU LRQDOH FX YDORULOH YDULDELOHL H[RJHQH [

DGLF 

s) ( = s ) [' 

s , + =s , [* 

       

s , . =s , [- 

&RUHOkQGUHOD LLOHLUH]XOW F UHOD LDGHYLQH
4 4
0 1
0 0
  4  \1 - D
-E[  \1 

 E =
PLQ ) D 4 PLQ 4 - E[1 
 \1 - D = 4 PLQ
/ 3
= 4 PLQ / 3
-D - E 

s2 1 [1 s2 1 [1

s2 1 [1 [1


49
 'DU UHOD LD  HVWH HFKLYDOHQW  FX DSOLFDUHD 0&003 PRGHOXOXL LQL LDO GXS  FH vQ

SUHDODELODIRVWvPS U LWOD[ 5 

\6  X6
\6 = D + E[ 6 + X6 _ [ 6 = D +E + 
[6 [6 [6
; ;
8 8
X \ 
9 9

E
PLQ )  D  = PLQ
7 : = PLQ
7 : -D
-E 
9 [9 9 [9 [9

 L E  DOH IXQF LLORU  L  L
&DOFXOkQG GHULYDWHOH SDU LDOH vQ UDSRUW FX D

DQXOkQGXOHVHDMXQJHODDFHODLVLVWHPGHHFXD LLSHED]DF UXLDVHGHWHUPLQ FHLGRLHVWLPDWRUL

  \<

 = 
)
D

D = + E = =
[< [< [<
   


)
E  =   \<


D + QE =
[< [<

 \?  \?
> - >
[? [? [? [?

E = >

 
Q > -

[? [?

    

\? 
>
[? [?
D
= -E
 

> >
[? [?

8Q FD] FRQFUHW GH XWLOL]DUH D DFHVWHL PHWRGH R FRQVWLWXLH VLWXD LD vQ FDUH VH XUP UHWH

PRGHODUHDLQYHVWL LLORUXQRULQWUHSULQGHULGHGLPHQVLXQLGLIHULWHvQIXQF LHGHFDSLWDOFLIUDGHDIDFHUL

LYHQLW, I.&$9X

2 DOW  PHWRG  FRQVW  vQ VHJPHQWDUHD HDQWLRQXOXL vQ VXEFROHFWLYLW L RPRJHQH GLQ SXQFW GH

YHGHUHDOQLYHOHORUIDFWRULORUXUPDW GHRUHVSHFLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLSHQWUXILHFDUHVHJPHQWvQSDUWH

Q PRG FXUHQW DFHVW SURFHGHX VH XWLOL]HD]  OD HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO

HFRQRPHWULF SULYLQG FHUHUHD VDX FRQVXPXO SRSXOD LHL ID  GH XQ SURGXV GH IRORVLQ  FXUHQW 

GHRDUHFH VD FRQVWDWDW F  GLVSHUVLD FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH FRQVXPXOXL FUHWH SH P VXUD FUHWHULL QLYHOXOXL

YHQLWXOXL

,@  9DORULOH YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH X VXQW QHFRUHODWH UHVSHFWLY QX H[LVW  IHQRPHQXO GH

DXWRFRUHODUHDHURULORU

FRYX B  X A  = 0 X B  X A  =  "W  N =  Q  W < N 

'HRDUHFHDSOLFD LLOHSUDFWLFHDXDU WDWF DFHVWIHQRPHQHIUHFYHQWvQVSHFLDOvQFD]XOVHULLORU

FURQRORJLFH LQWHUGHSHQGHQWH YHULILFDUHD DFHVWXLD HVWH QHFHVDU  PDL DOHV vQ FD]XO FDOFXOHORU GH

SURJQR] 

0&003 vQ FD]XO H[LVWHQ HL IHQRPHQXOXL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH 0 X D  X C    QX PDL

SHUPLWH RE LQHUHD GH HVWLPDWRUL HILFLHQ L SUH]HQWkQG WRWRGDW  GLVWRUVLXQL GH OD YDORULOH UHDOH 6H

S VWUHD] vQV FDOLWDWHDDFHVWRUDGHDILFRQVLVWHQ LIDSWFHLPSXQHLQWURGXFHUHDvQFDOFXODXQRUVHULL

GHGDWHVXILFLHQWGHOXQJLHDQWLRQGHYDORULFkWPDLPDUH

$XWRFRUHODUHD HURULORU VH GDWRUHD]  DQDOL]HL vQ WLPS D OHJ WXULL GLQWUH YDULDELOH UHVSHFWLY D

XQXL HIHFW LQHU LDO vQ HYROX LD YDULDELOHORU VDX DOW  FDX]  DU FRQVWLWXL R HURDUH GH VSHFLILFDUH D

PRGHOXOXL UHVSHFWLY RPLWHUHD XQHL YDULDELOH H[SOLFDWLYH [ 5  FX LQIOXHQ  SXWHUQLF  DVXSUD YDULDELOHL

HQGRJHQH\

'HSLVWDUHDDXWRFRUHO ULLHURULORUVHSRDWHIDFHXWLOL]kQGXUP WRDUHOHSURFHGHH


50

 3URFHGHXOJUDILFVHUHDOL]HD] FRUHORJUDPDvQWUHYDORULOHHVWLPDWHDOHYDULDELOHLHQGRJHQH <E L


YDORULOHYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH X

F
X

\ G




)LJXUD

*UDILF DXWRFRUHOD LD HURULORU VH PDQLIHVW  ILH SULQWUXQ QXP U IRDUWH PLF VDX IRDUWH PDUH GH

VFKLPE UL DOH VHPQXOXL YDULDELOHL DOHDWRDUH ILH FD XUPDUH D XQRU VFKLPE UL VLPHWULFH R RVFLOD LH

UHJXODW DYDORULORUYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHID GHYDORULOHOXL \



 &DOFXOXOFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHGHRUGLQXO

Q Q

X
X
W

W - X
X
W

W -
W = W =
U = =      

Q - Q
 
X

W X

W -
W = W =

$FHVWDHVWHGHILQLWvQLQWHUYDOXO [-  ] DYkQGXUP WRDUHDVHPQLILFD LH

-  DXWRFRUHOD LH VWULFW QHJDWL Y

U =   LQGHSHQGHQ 
 

+  DXWRFRUHOD LH VWULFW SR]LWL Y

 7HVWXO'XUELQ:DWVRQFRQVW vQFDOFXODUHDYDORULL
J M
(X
K -X
K L )
K H M I
G = J       
M
K
X
K H L

$FHDVW  YDORDUH HPSLULF  G VH FRPSDU  FX GRX  YDORUL WHRUHWLFH G N  L GO  SUHOXDWH GLQ

WDEHOXO GLVWULEX LHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ YH]L $QH[D QU  vQ IXQF LH GH XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a

DUELWUDU DOHV a   VDX a   GH QXP UXO GH YDULDELOH H[RJHQH N L GH YDORULOH REVHUYDWH

( Q Q ) 

5HJXODGHGHFL]LHDDSOLF ULLWHVWXOXLVHSUH]LQW vQWDEHOXOXUP WRU

<G<G N  G N GGO  GO <G<GO  GO GG N  G N <G

$XWRFRUHODUH ,QGHFL]LH (URULOHVXQW ,QGHFL]LH $XWRFRUHODUH

SR]LWLY   LQGHSHQGHQWH  QHJDWLY 

&HL GRL DXWRUL DFFHSWkQG LSRWH]D GH QRUPDOLWDWH D YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH DX GHPRQVWUDW F 

GLVWULEX LD YDULDELOHL DOHDWRDUH G HVWH FXSULQV  vQWUH GRX  GLVWULEX LL OLPLW  G N  L GO  DOH F URU P ULPL

GHSLQG GH SUDJXO GH VHPQLILFD LH a GH QXP UXO GH YDULDELOH H[RJHQH N L GH QXP UXO GH YDORUL

REVHUYDWHQQ

'H]YROWkQGUHOD LDOXLGDFHDVWDGHYLQH


51
 R R R
U U
S + S Q -  X
S X
S
X X T Q T
U
SP U
SP SP U
G = R 
U
T X S
SP
W \ \
Y ^ ^
3HQWUXXQQVXILFLHQWGHPDUHFHOHWUHLVXPH X
V X  ]
Z X [ 
_
Z X] ILLQGDSUR[LPDWLYHJDOH
X Y ] ^ ] _

UHOD LDOXLGYDILHJDO FX

d

c
e
X e
X ` b
ea
G = -  d ` b 
c
X e
ea b
j

i
k
X k
X f h
kg
6HQRWHD] FX Uh = j f h FRHILFLHQWXOGHDXWRFRUHOD LHGHRUGLQXODUH]LGXXULORUX l 
i
k
X
kg h

( ) U
G
G =  - U =-    
( ) ( )
m m 


G >@ 

FXVHPQLILFD LD

-  DXWRFRUHOD UH VWULFW QHJDWL Y 

LQGHFL]LH


U =  LQGHSHQGHQ G =  


LQGHFL]LH

 DXWRFRUHOD UH VWULFW 
SR]LWL Y

QJHQHUDODXWRFRUHOD LDHURULORUHVWHSURYRFDW GHGRX FDX]H

 ILH F  YDULDELOD HQGRJHQ  \ VH DXWRFRUHOHD]  vQ HYROX LD VD FD XUPDUH D XQXL HIHFW LQHU LDO

JHQHUkQGRDXWRFRUHODUHvQWLPSDHURULORU

 ILH GDWRULW  RPLWHULL XQHL YDULDELOH H[RJHQH [ FX LQIOXHQ  VHPQLILFDWLY  DVXSUD OXL \ DGLF  D

XQHLHURULGHVSHFLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULF

(OLPLQDUHD IHQRPHQXOXL GH DXWRFRUHODUH D YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH X l   vQ FD]XO GHSLVW ULL VDOH 

VHIXQGDPHQWHD] SHHYLWDUHDFDX]HORUFDUHvOJHQHUHD] 

2 PRGDOLWDWH GLUHFW  GH D HYLWD FRQVHFLQ HOH VWDWLVWLFH SH FDUH OH JHQHUHD]  DFHVW IHQRPHQ R

FRQVWLWXLHXWLOL]DUHDXUP WRDUHORUSURFHGHH

D $SOLFDUHD 0&003 JHQHUDOL]DWH vQ YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL FDUH vQ

FD]XO DXWRFRUHO ULL UH]LGXXULORU SHUPLWH RE LQHUHD GH HVWLPDWRUL QHGHSODVD L FRQVLVWHQ L L HILFLHQ L

$FHDVW  PHWRG  HVWH UHFRPDQGDW  vQ VLWXD LD vQ FDUH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU FDX]DOH HVWH VXSHULRU OXL

- - -
XQXPRGHOHPXOWLIDFWRULDOH(VWLPDWRULLPRGHOXOXLVHRE LQDVWIHO % =  ;
9 ;   ;
9 <  

XQGH9 PDWULFHDYDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ HORUUH]LGXXULORU

E8QDOWSURFHGHXHVWHXUP WRUXO

)LH PRGHOXO OLQLDU XQLIDFWRULDO \ = D + E[ +X  6H HVWLPHD]  SDUDPHWULL DFHVWXLD D L E FX
W W W

DMXWRUXO 0&003 6H FDOFXOHD]  YDORULOH DMXVWDWH DOH YDULDELOHL HQGRJHQH 
\n = D
+ E[ n  L

UH]LGXXULOH  X
o = \ o - \
o = \ o -D
-E [ o   L VH DSOLF  WHVWXO G 'DF  LSRWH]D GH


52
 G
LQGHSHQGHQ  D YDULDELOHORU UH]LGXDOH ,p  QX SRDWH IL DFFHSWDW   Uq   Ur = -  DFHDVWD


SUHVXSXQHRDXWRFRUHODUHGHRUGLQXOvQWkLDHURULORUUHVSHFWLY

s - = Ux
X s tvu + ] s 
uwX      

XQGH]y HVWHYDULDELODDOHDWRDUHFHYHULILF LSRWH]HOH,z ,p L,{ 

WLLQGF 

} | = \~ } | - \
~
X ~ } | = \ ~ } | -D
-E [ ~ } |    

QORFXLQGUHOD LLOHLvQUHOD LDVHRE LQH

\ - E[ 
- D = U - E[   + ]  
 \ - D

\ - U  - U  + E  [ - U [  + ]  
\ = D  

Q HFXD LD  YDULDELOHOH \  L [  VXQW FXQRVFXWH LDU YDORDUHD FRHILFLHQWXOXL GH

DXWRFRUHOD LHVHYDFDOFXODFXUHOD LD

X X

U =


X

6H LQWURGXF YDORULOH DFHVWXLD vQ UHOD LD  L VH YRU HVWLPD SDUDPHWULL D  L E  SULQ

a  L b HVWLPD LLOH SDUDPHWULORU D L E FDOFXODWH SH ED]D
DSOLFDUHD GLQ QRX D 0&003 )LH

GLIHUHQ HORUGHRUGLQXOvQWkLDOHYDULDELOHORU\L[

6HDMXQJHDVWIHOODPRGHOXO

 \ - U \  = a  - U  + b  [ - U [     

XQGH  \ - U \   UHSUH]LQW  GLIHUHQ HOH WHRUHWLFH DMXVWDWH GH RUGLQXO vQWkL DOH YDULDELOHL

HQGRJHQH\FDOFXODWHSHED]DIXQF LHLGHUHJUHVLH

F3URFHGHXOSULQEDOHLDM+LOGUHWK/X

'DF H[LVW FRUHOD LHVHDMXQJHODUHOD LD

\ - U  - U  + E  [ - U [  + ]  \
\ = D = D + E [ + ] 

3URFHGHXOSULQEDOHLDMFRQVW vQDWULEXLUHDGHYDORULOXLU vQLQWHUYDOXO>@DXWRFRUHODUH

SR]LWLY VDXvQWUH>@DXWRFRUHODUHQHJDWLY 

'HH[HPSOXvQFD]XOXQHLDXWRFRUHO ULSRLWLYHLVHDWULEXLHOXLU XUP WRDUHOHYDORUL

U >] 

U >] 

U >] 

'HFLPLQLPXOVHVLWXHD] vQLQWHUYDOXO>@

6H GDX DSRL YDORUL OXL U    RSULQGXQH OD YDORDUHD SHQWUX FDUH VH RE LQH PLQ


] 3HQWUXDFHDVW YDORDUHVHS VWUHD] HVWLPDWRULL D
L E RE LQX LvQDFHVWFD]

G3URFHGHXOLWHUDWLYDOOXL'&RFKUDQL&2UFXWW

6HFRQVLGHU PRGHOXO \ = D + E[ +X 6HHVWLPHD] SDUDPHWULLPRGHOXOXLVHDSOLF WHVWXO

W W W

': VH FDOFXOHD]  FRHILFLHQWXO GH DXWRFRUHOD LH GH RUGLQXO vQWkL L VH vQORFXLHWH YDORDUHD VD vQ

HFXD LDLQL LDO RE LQkQGXVHPRGHOXO \ =D +E [ + ] QFD]XODFHVWXLPRGHOVHYHULILF GDF 
  W W

VD HOLPLQDW VDX QX DXWRFRUHOD LD HURULORU Q FD] FRQWUDU VH FRQWLQX  SURFHGHXO SkQ  FkQG VH DWLQJH

DFHVWGH]LGHUDW

H3URFHGHXO'XUELQ

\ - E[
- D - U - E[  + ] 
 \ - D


53

 E 
6H FDOFXOHD]  U  VH LQWURGXFH vQ UHOD LD  L UH]XOW  HVWLPDWRULL SDUDPHWULORU D

$FHDVW PHWRG G UH]XOWDWHEXQHQXPDLvQFD]XOH[LVWHQ HLXQHLDXWRFRUHOD LLGHRUGLQXOvQWkLLHVWH

DSOLFDELO vQFD]XOvQVHOXFUHD] FXXQQXP UPDUHGHGDWH

I 8QHRUL HOLPLQDUHD DXWRFRUHOD LHL VH SRDWH UHDOL]D L SULQ FRQVWUXLUHD PRGHOXOXL SH ED]D

GLIHUHQ HORUGHRUGLQXOvQWkLDOHYDULDELOHORU

\ - \ = D + E [ -[  +] \ = D + E[ +] 
W W - W W - W W W W

J 3HQWUX HOLPLQDUHD DXWRFRUHOD LHL VH SRDWH FRQVWUXL XQ PRGHO QRX vQ FDUH VH LQWURGXFH R

YDULDELO  ILFWLY  VXSOLPHQWDU  $FHDVW  PHWRG  SRUQHWH GH OD LGHHD F  YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  X QX HVWH

LQIOXHQ DW  QXPDL GH IDFWRUL DOHDWRUL FL H[LVW  FHO SX LQ XQ IDFWRU VLVWHPDWLF FDUH SURYRDF 

DXWRFRUHOD LD

,  /HJHD GH SUREDELOLWDWH D YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH X HVWH OHJHD QRUPDO  GH PHGLH QXO  L

DEDWHUHPHGLHS WUDWLF s X N(0,s )

6H WLH F  GDF  HURULOH XUPHD]  OHJHD QRUPDO  GH PHGLH ]HUR L GH DEDWHUH PHGLH S WUDWLF 

V FRQVHFLQ DLSRWH]HORU, , , DWXQFLDUHORFUHOD LD

   3 (X
W V
)=-a 
W a X

3HED]DDFHVWHLUHOD LLvQIXQF LHGHGLIHULWHSUDJXULGHVHPQLILFD LH a GLQWDEHODGLVWULEX LHL

QRUPDOHVDXDGLVWULEX LHL6WXGHQWVHYRUSUHOXDYDORULOHFRUHVSXQ] WRDUHOXL W 

9HULILFDUHD LSRWH]HL GH QRUPDOLWDWH VH SRDWH IDFH SH ED]D XQXL JUDILF vQ FDGUXO F UXLD SH D[D

2[ VH YRU UHSUH]HQWD YDORULOH DMXVWDWH DOH YDULDELOHL \  \

 LDU SH D[D 2\ VH YRU WUHFH YDORULOH

YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH  X  'DF  YDORULOH HPSLULFH DOH YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH VH vQVFULX vQ EDQGD
W

W V
 FX XQ DQXPLW SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a  LSRWH]D GH QRUPDOLWDWH D YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH SRDWH
a X

ILDFFHSWDW FXDFHVWSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LHYH]LILJXUD

X + W V


\

- W V

)LJXUD

9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLHVWLPDWRULORUSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULF

'DF  FHOH SDWUX LSRWH]H SRW IL DFFHSWDWH VH SRDWH GHPRQVWUD YH]L 7HRUHPD  F 

0&003 HVWH HFKLYDOHQW  FX 090 PHWRGD YHURVLPLOLW LL PD[LPH L GHFL HVWLPDWRULL

RE LQX LvQDFHVWFD]VXQWQHGHSODVD LFRQYHUJHQ LLHILFLHQ L

LE
'H DVHPHQHD  YH]L 7HRUHPD  L  FHL GRL HVWLPDWRUL D  VXQW YDULDELOH DOHDWRDUH

UHSDUWL]DWHQRUPDO

 = 1  D  V   /  E
/ D  = 1  E V  

XQGH


54

 [
V = V + DEDWHUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF DHVWLPDWRUXOXL D


([ )
Q

- [


V
X
V
=  DEDWHUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF DHVWLPDWRUXOXL E 

([ W )
E 
- [
W



 \ - \




V =
X  =  GLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHYH]LWHRUHPD
Q -  Q - 

9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLHVWLPDWRULORUFRQVW vQDDFFHSWDVDXDUHVSLQJHXQDGLQFHOHGRX 

LSRWH]H

D = 
+  


E = 

D 
+  


E 

7HVWXO DGHFYDW DFHVWXL VFRS D
L E  ILLQG YDULDELOH QRUPDOH HVWH WHVWXO W 3ULQ FHQWUDUHD L

QRUPDUHD HVWLPD LLORU D
L E  vQ FD]XO LSRWH]HL +  / D
 1 V  L / E  1 V  VH RE LQ

-  E - 
D

YDORULOH FDOFXODWH W =  L W =  $FHVWH YDORUL FDOFXODWH VDX HPSLULFH VH FRPSDU  FX
V V

YDORDUHDWHRUHWLF 

 W   YDULDELO  QRUPDO  GDF  W =  Q  Q! SUHOXDW  GLQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL QRUPDOH vQ

IXQF LHGHRYDORDUHDUELWUDUDOHDV DSUREDELOLW LLSVDXDSUDJXOXLGHVHPQLILFD LH S  

DFHVWHYDORULGHUHJXO ILLQGS  !  S  !  S  !  

 W v  YDULDELO  6WXGHQW GDF  W =  Q  Q SUHOXDW  GLQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL 6WXGHQW vQ

IXQF LH GH YDORDUHD VWDELOLW  SHQWUX  L GH QXP UXO JUDGHORU GH OLEHUWDWH QN Q  QXP UXO

REVHUYD LLORU N  QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH [  M =  N N  QXP UXO SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL

HFRQRPHWULF

3HED]DFHORUGRX YDORULW LW UHJXODGHGHFL]LHDWHVWXOXLHVWH

D
W = W


V

 GDF   ! VH DFFHSW  +  ! HVWLPDWRULL QX VXQW VHPQLILFDWLY GLIHUL L GH

E
W = W
V

]HURVHUHQXQ ODHLLODPRGHO !VHUHYLQHODSULPDHWDS FXRQRX VSHFLILFDUH

D
W = >W


V

 GDF  ! VH DFFHSW  +  ! PRGHOXO D IRVW FRUHFW VSHFLILFDW LGHQWLILFDW L

E
W = >W
V

HVWLPDWLVHFRQWLQX GLVFX LDHFRQRPHWULF 


55

D
W = W


V

 GDF  !VHUH LQHPRGHOXO\ I[X E[XLVHFRQWLQX GLVFX LD

E
W = >W
V

HFRQRPHWULF 

QSUDFWLF GHRDUHFHW v HFRQRPLWLLDFFHSW LSRWH]D+ HVWLPDWRULLVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYL

GDF 

D
W = 
V



E
W = 
V

LE
Q DFHODL WLPS WLLQG F  D  VXQW UHSDUWL]D L QRUPDO VH SRDWH HVWLPD LQWHUYDOXO GH

vQFUHGHUHDOSDUDPHWULORUDFHVWRUD

3 (D
-W  V
 D D
+W  V
 )= S =-a 

3 E -W ( V

E E +W V )= S =-a 

3DUDPHWULLDLEYRUILFRQVLGHUD LVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHUL LGH]HURGDF 

3 D = D
W (   V  )
>  = S =-a 

3 E = E W (
 V  )
>  = S =-a 

9HULILFDUHDVLPLOLWXGLQLLPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULF

0RGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF \
 =D

+E [   HVWH H[SUHVLD IRUPDO  D PRGHOXOXL HFRQRPLF UHDO \   


I[   X    
 D  E[   X  FRQFHSXW SH ED]D WHRULHL HFRQRPLFH L UH]XOWDW SH ED]D XQXL VLQJXU

H[SHULPHQWXQXLVLQJXUVRQGDMVWDWLVWLF

&DDWDUHvQDFHDVW HWDS VHXUP UHWHV VHYHULILFH

 GDF  LSRWH]D GH SRUQLUH  [  SULQFLSDOXO IDFWRU GH LQIOXHQ  D IHQRPHQXOXL \  HVWH

FRUHFW VDXQX

 GDF OHJLWDWHDHFRQRPLF GLQWUHFHOHGRX YDULDELOHHVWHGHIRUPD\ DE[

 GDF  UH]XOWDWHOH RE LQXWH SRW IL FRQVLGHUDWH VLVWHPDWLFH  vQ VHQVXO F  VH YRU RE LQH

DSURDSH DFHOHDL UH]XOWDWH GDF  VH YD UHSHWD H[SHULHQ D FX DOWH VRQGDMH GH YROXP L

VWUXFWXU  DOWH XQLW L VWDWLVWLFH GLIHULWH  VDX vQWkPSO WRDUH DGLF  UH]XOWDWH GLIHULWH

SHQWUXVRQGDMHGLIHULWH

Q JHQHUDO VFRSXULOH XUP ULWH vQ DFHDVW  HWDS  VH UH]ROY  FX DMXWRUXO PHWRGHL DQDOL]HL

YDULD LHLFXQRVFXW LVXEQXPHOHGHPHWRGD$129$

0HWRGDDQDOL]HLYDULD LHLSRUQHWHGHODLGHQWLWDWHD
 
\  - \ = \  - \
 + \
 - \  (\  - \ ) = (\  - \
 + \
 - \ ) 

   
    [    ]

 \ -\  = < - \  + \ -<     


XQGH  \   YDORULOHUHDOHDOHIHQRPHQXOXL\


 

 5HOD LD  U PkQH YDODELO  vQ WRDWH FD]XULOH GH PRGHOH OLQLDUH VDX OLQLDUL]DELOH Q FD]XO DFHVWRUD GLQ XUP  VH YD

LQHFRQWGHVHPQLILFD LDVLPEROXULORU'HH[HPSOX

 PRGHOXO SXWHUH \    
 D [ X  ! OQ \    OQ D E OQ [   OQ X     'HFL vQ DFHVW FD] VHPQLILFD LLOH VLPEROXULORU GLQ

UHOD LDYRUIL\  OQ\   
\ OQ
\  \ =

OQ \ ! =

OQ \
! X  
OQ\ OQ
\ 
Q Q


56

\ YDORULOHWHRUHWLFHDOHIHQRPHQXOXL\

\  =D

+E [  

( )= D
  
\ = \ " = \
" =

+E
D [ "
+E [ 
Q Q Q

3ULQULGLFDUHDODS WUDWDELQRPXOXLGLQSDUWHDGUHDSW DUHOD LHLUH]XOW 

$ ' $ ' $ ' $
%# & %
 \ == < - \
%# & % %# & %
+  \ - <  % %# & %
+ < - \ \ - <   % %

- \

7HUPHQLLUHOD LHLVHGHILQHVFSULQ

, (
9 *( -+ ) -
= (\ - \) YDULD LDWRWDO DYDULDELOHL\SURYRFDW GHWR LIDFWRULLV LGHLQIOXHQ 

3 / 3
9 1 =
0. 2( 0
\ - \)
 YDULD LD IHQRPHQXOXL \ SURYRFDW  QXPDL GH YDULD LD IDFWRUXOXL [

FRQVLGHUDWIDFWRUXOSULQFLSDODOYDULDELOHL\DGLF YDULD LDOXL\H[SOLFDW GHPRGHOXOHFRQRPHWULF

3 / 3
9 4 0. 2 0
= (\ -
\ 0)  YDULD LD UH]LGXDO  VDX YDULD LD IHQRPHQXOXL \ JHQHUDW  GH F WUH IDFWRULL

QHVSHFLILFD L vQ PRGHO DFHWL IDFWRUL ILLQG FRQVLGHUD L  vQ HWDSD GH VSHFLILFDUH  GUHSW IDFWRUL FX

LQIOXHQ vQWkPSO WRDUHQHHVHQ LDOLSHQWUXDH[SOLFDYDULD LDIHQRPHQXOXL\

8
76 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Q

  \
- \  \ - \
 =   D
+E [ -D
-E
[ X = E  [ - [  X =  Q E FRY X [  =
Q

 FRY[ X  9 9 9
DGLF [ LX VXQWYDULDELOHLQGHSHQGHQWH$FHDVW FRQGL LHVHUHDOL]HD] GDF  9
HURULOHVXQWKRPRVFHGDVWLFHYH]LLSRWH]D,  :
'HUHJXO UH]XOWDWHOHDSOLF ULLPHWRGHL$129$VHSUH]LQW vQWUXQWDEHOGHIRUPD

7DEHOXO

6XUVDGH 0 VXUD 1XP UXO 'LVSHUVLL 9DORDUHDWHVWXOXL

YDULD LH YDULD LHL JUDGHORU FRUHFWDWH )

GH )  ; )>@?=<=AC? < B 

/ 3
OLEHUWDWH
G H
9DULDQ D
3  G D M LH K 
1 = (
0. 2 0
\ - \) FED 9 V
H[SOLFDW GHPRGHO
9 
N = 
V = 
) N =  


N
V IJ
3 / 3 OP O
9DULDQ D  Q  
4 0. 2 0 0) Q 9
9 = (\ -
\  V = 
UH]LGXDO  Q - N -   
Q - N -

9DULDQ D 3 / 3    

WRWDO 
9
0. 2( 0
= \ - \) 
Q -   

3HED]DGDWHORUGLQWDEHOVHSRWWHVWDXUP WRDUHOHLSRWH]H
R TR
+ S  V W VU = V  ! FHOH GRX  GLVSHUVLL VXQW DSUR[LPDWLY HJDOH DGLF  LQIOXHQ D IDFWRUXOXL [

QXGLIHU GHLQIOXHQ DIDFWRULORUvQWkPSO WRUL

X ZX
+ Y  V ] \[ V  ! LQIOXHQ D IDFWRUXOXL [ L D IDFWRULORU vQWkPSO WRUL  P VXUDW  SULQ FHOH

GRX  GLVSHUVLL  GLIHU  VHPQLILFDWLY L GHFL VH SRDWH WUHFH OD GLVFX LD VLPLOLWXGLQLL D YHURVLPLOLW LL

PRGHOXOXLWHRUHWLFvQUDSRUWFXPRGHOXOUHDO

'XS  FXP VH WLH WHVWDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL GLQWUH GRX  GLVSHUVLL VH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO GLVWULEX LHL

WHRUHWLFH)LVKHU6QHGHFRUUHVSHFWLYFXWHVWXO)&XQRVFkQGFHOHGRX YDORUL

      

_a`cb d ^ e f
 PRGHOXO H[SRQHQ LDO \  ^ H X  ^ !OQ\  ^ DE[  OQX ^ ^  ! \ ^ OQ\  ^
\ g OQ
\ h  \ PHGLDJHRPHWULF D

WHUPHQLORU


57
   
V 9 9
\ [ [ X
) = =    YDORDUHD FDOFXODW  D YDULDELOHL ) SH ED]D UH]XOWDWHORU
FDO

N Q - N -
V
X

PRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULF

) i jckai jml  YDORDUHDWHRUHWLF DYDULDELOHL)SUHOXDW GLQWDEHODUHSDUWL LHL)LVKHU6QHGHFRU

vQIXQF LHGHXQSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LH   VDX  VDX  LGHQXP UXOJUDGHORUGH

OLEHUWDWHY 
k NY 
l QN

5HJXODGHGHFL]LHHVWHXUP WRDUHD

 VHDFFHSW + LVHUHVSLQJH+ GDF  n o

) rp qts  ) i jckai jml 

 VHDFFHSW + LVHUHVSLQJH+ GDF  o n

) prqts > ) i jckai jml 

o
'DF VHDFFHSW + LGDF YDULDELODXHVWHLQGHSHQGHQW GHIHQRPHQXO[FRY[X DWXQFL

HFXD LDDQDOL]HLYDULD LHLHVWH u u u

9 v =9 x +9 w       

HFXD LHFDUHSULQvPS U LUHDOD 9 zy VHWUDQVIRUP vQ

{ { { {
9 ~ 9 }{ 9 ~ 9 }{
=
9 |{ +
9 |  =
9 |{  +
9 |     

 
9
7HUPHQXO 5 =
9   VH QXPHWH FRHILFLHQW GH GHWHUPLQDUH L DUH XUP WRDUHOH

VHPQLILFD LL

 \ I  [  + X [ QX HVWH IDFWRU FDX]D DO IHQRPHQXOX L  \

} \ = I  [  + X [ HVWH IDFWRU DO YDULDELOHL  \GDU QX HVWH IDFWRU HVHQWLDO

5
=  

} \ = I  [  + X [ HVWH XQ IDFWRU HVHQWLDO DO IHQRPHQXOX L  \

 \ = I  [  [ HVWH VLQJXUXO IDFWRU GH LQIOXHQWD DIHQRPHQXOX L  \

3H ED]D DILUPD LLORU GH PDL VXV VH GHGXFH XRU F  XQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF HVWH FX DWkW PDL

SHUIRUPDQW FX FkW YDORDUHD OXL 5  VH DSURSLH PDL PXOW GH XQX UHVSHFWLY FX FkW VH DSURSLH PDL

PXOWGH

6WDWLVWLFLQWHQVLWDWHDOHJ WXULLGLQWUHFHOHGRX YDULDELOHVHP VRDU FXDMXWRUXOLQGLFDWRUXOXL

5 GHQXPLWUDSRUWGHFRUHOD LH

5 = 5 =
9

= -
9


9 9

 [ L  \ VXQW LQGHSHQGHQ WH

}FRUHODWLHVODE

5
=  

}FRUHODWLH SXWHUQLF

 FRUHODWLHGHWHUPLQLVW  \ HVWH FRUHODW VWULFW FX [

QFD]XOXQHLOHJ WXULOLQLDUHvQWUHFHOHGRX YDULDELOH\ DE[XOQ\ OQDEOQ[

OQ X OQ \  D  E[  OQ X HVWLPDWRULL SDUDPHWULORU ILLQG RE LQX L FX DMXWRUXO 0&003 VH SRDWH

GHPRQVWUDF UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LH 5 HVWHHJDOFXFRHILFLHQWXOGHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU  U 


58

5 = U U =
FRY \  [ 

=
 \ - \  [

- [ 

= E
s


s s Qs s s

'H DVHPHQHD WHVWDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VH SRDWH IDFH WRW FX WHVWXO )

GDU SRUQLQG GH OD YDORDUHD UDSRUWXOXL GH FRUHOD LH 5  VDX D FRHILFLHQWXOXL GH GHWHUPLQDUH

5 

V Q - N -
) rt = =
9

9
=
5

V N Q - N - - 5 N

$VWIHO

 GDF  ) rt =
Q - N -

5
) 5 =   VH UHQXQ  OD PRGHOXO
N - 5

HFRQRPHWULFRE LQXW

 GDF  ) rt =
Q - N -

5
> ) 5   VH WUHFH OD GLVFX LD
- 5

HFRQRPHWULF DHFXD LHLDQDOL]HLYDULD LHL9 =9 +9 YH]LUHOD LD

8WLOL]DUHDPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULFXQLIDFWRULDO

Q SUDFWLFD HFRQRPLF  XQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VH XWLOL]HD]  SHQWUX H[SOLFDUHD YDULD LHL

IHQRPHQXOXL UH]XOWDWLY \ vQ UDSRUW GH YDULD LD IDFWRUXOXL V X [ SHQWUX HVWLPDUHD YDORULORU SUREDELOH

DOH IHQRPHQXOXL \ VLPXODUHD DFHVWXLD vQ IXQF LH GH SRVLELOHOH YDORUL SH FDUH HFRQRPLF OH SRDWH

vQUHJLVWUD IDFWRUXO [ L vQ ILQDO SURJQR]D IHQRPHQXOXL \ vQ IXQF LH GH YDORULOH IHQRPHQXOXL [ SH

LQWHUYDOXOGHSURJQR] YY K

3HQWUX D SHUPLWH FD XWLOL]DWRULL V  YHULILFH SURSULHW LOH SHUIRUPDQ HOH XQXL PRGHO

HFRQRPHWULFRE LQXWDFHVWDWUHEXLHSUH]HQWDWFXXUP WRDUHOHLQIRUPD LL

\ =D

+E [   5 

   V  V   G

     V 

'LVSXQkQGGHDFHVWHLQIRUPD LLVHSRDWHWHVWD

 LQGHSHQGHQ DHURULORUWHVWXOG'XUELQ:DWVRQ

 VHPQLILFD LDHVWLPDWRULORUWHVWXOW

 VLPLOLWXGLQHDPRGHOXOXLWHVWXO)

Q DQXPLWH FD]XUL FkQG VDX HVWLPDW GRX  PRGHOH SHQWUX VSD LL GLIHULWH GRX  MXGH H VDX

GRX  SLH H GLIHULWH VDX SHQWUX SHULRDGH GH WLPS GLIHULWH DOH DFHORUDL GRX  IHQRPHQH \ L [ GH

H[HPSOX 0  \ = D + E [  L 0  \ = D +E [  VH SRDWH WHVWD LSRWH]D RPRJHQLW LL VDX

VWDELOLW LLUHODWLYHDOHJLW LLGLQWUHFHOHGRX IHQRPHQH

+  E =E FHOH GRX  PRGHOH VXQW UHODWLY RPRJHQH VDX OHJ WXUD HVWH UHODWLY VWDELO  vQ

WLPS

+  E E FHOHGRX PRGHOHQXVXQWRPRJHQHOHJ WXUDQXHVWHUHODWLYVWDELO 

$VWIHO

-E

 GDF  W rt =
E
W VHDFFHSW + 
V + V


59
 -E

 GDF  W rt =
E
>W VHDFFHSW + 
V + V

'H UH LQXW F  LSRWH]D +  HVWH IRORVLW  vQ VSHFLDO vQ GRPHQLXO SURJQR]HL GHRDUHFH DFFHSWDUHD

HL SUHVXSXQH H[LVWHQ D XQHL OHJ WXUL UHODWLY VWDELOH vQ WLPS SUHPLV  FH MXVWLILF  SUHYL]LXQHD

IHQRPHQXOXL\SHED]DYDORULORUYLLWRDUHDOHIHQRPHQXOXL[QDFHODLWLPSvQWRDWHFHOHWUHLGLUHF LL

vQ FDUH SRDWH IL IRORVLW XQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF YDORULOH IHQRPHQXOXL SRW IL HVWLPDWH ILH SH ED]D

HVWLPD LHLSXQFWXDOH \
=D

+E [ ILHSHED]DXQXLLQWHUYDOGHvQFUHGHUH

3 \ ( -W V \ \
+W V )= S =-a 

'H UHJXO  SURJQR]D IHQRPHQXOXL \ GDF  VH FXQRVF YDORULOH YDULDELOHL IDFWRULDOH [ SHQWUX

PRPHQWXO QY VH UHDOL]HD]  SH ED]D XQXL LQWHUYDO GH vQFUHGHUH GHRDUHFH \ HVWH R YDULDELO 

DOHDWRDUH QRUPDO  GH PHGLH \

L GH DEDWHUH PHGLH S WUDWLF  V YH]L LSRWH]HOH ,
L ,  DOH

0&003

3 \ ( -W V \ \
+W V )= S =-a 

XQGH

\ YDORDUHDUHDO DYDULDELOHL\vQPRPHQWXOGHSURJQR]  Q + Y 

- \
= HVWLPD LDSXQFWXDO DYDORULLGHSURJQR] SHQWUXYDULDELOD\FDUHVHFDOFXOHD] FX

DMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

\ =D

+E [ 

 V    DEDWHUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF DHURULLGHSUHYL]LXQHFDOFXODW FXUHOD LD

([  )


 


- [
V  = V = V  + + 

([ )
    
Q
   
- [
 

'LQ UHOD LD GH PDL VXV UH]XOW  F  HURDUHD GH SUHYL]LXQH  V     HVWH FX DWkW PDL PLF  FX FkW

QXP UXO GH REVHUYD LL YD IL PDL PDUH FX FkW YDORULOH YDULDELOHORU vQ PRPHQWXO GH SURJQR]  QY

YRU IL PDL DSURSLDWH GH PHGLD ORU FX FkW GLVSHUVLD YDULDELOHL H[RJHQH [ YD IL PDL PDUH L FX FkW

GLVSHUVLD YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH  V    HVWH PDL PLF  LDU DFHDVWD YD IL FX DWkW PDL PLF  FX FkW PRGHOXO

HFRQRPHWULF YD H[SOLFD R SDUWH WRW PDL PDUH GLQ YDULD LD YDULDELOHL SURJQR]DWH \
 VDX FX FkW

UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LH 5 \ [
YDDYHDRYDORDUHPDLDSURSLDW GHXQX

$SUHFLHUHD SURJQR]HL XQXL IHQRPHQ \ SH ED]D XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF \
 =D
+E [   VH

SRDWHIDFHFXDMXWRUXODGRX QR LXQLVLJXUDQ DSURJQR]HLLSUHFL]LDSURJQR]HLQR LXQLFDUHVHDIO 

vQUHOD LHLQYHUVSURSRU LRQDO 

6LJXUDQ D SURJQR]HL HVWH GDW  GH SUREDELOLWDWHD S FX FDUH HVWH HVWLPDW LQWHUYDOXO GH

vQFUHGHUHLDUSUHFL]LDSURJQR]HLGHUHOD LD

 HURDUHDDEVROXW  H  = \    - \
   = W V     

H' W+ V% & * " )

 HURDUHDUHODWLY  H (  =  =  
$ ! #
\ $ ! #
\

'DUGDF SUH]XOW F VLJXUDQ DSURJQR]HLFUHWHLDUGDF W UH]XOW F HURDUHDFUHWH

LDUSUHFL]LDVHGLPLQXHD] 'LQDFHVWPRWLYHVWLPDUHDYDORULORUSUREDELOHDOHIHQRPHQXOXL\VHIDFH

SH ED]D XQRU YDORUL SUHVWDELOLWH SULYLQG VLJXUDQ D L SUHFL]LD SURJQR]HL 'H H[HPSOX VH SRDWH

SUHFL]D F SURJQR]HOHYRUWUHEXLDFFHSWDWHFXRSUREDELOLWDWHGDW S  !  LDUHURDUHD

GHSURJQR] SHXQDQXPLWRUL]RQWDOSURJQR]HLWUHEXLHV ILH


60
 W5 V. / 2 4
H 0  = 1  (  ( 
- 3 ,
\

([HPSOXGHDSOLFDUHDPRGHOXOXLXQLIDFWRULDO

6H FXQRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH SULYLQG 3,%XO UHDOORFXLWRU L VDODULXO PHGLX UHDO vQ SHULRDGD

 vQUHJLVWUDWH vQ FD]XO 5RPkQLHL FHL GRL LQGLFDWRUL VXQW H[SULPD L vQ SUH XULOH DQXOXL



7DEHOXO

$QXO 3,%UHDOORFXLWRU 6DODULXOUHDOORFXLWRU

PLLOHL OHL

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

   6XUVDGHGDWH$QXDUXO6WDWLVWLFDO%15

 6HFHUH

D 6SHFLILFDUHD LGHQWLILFDUHD L HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL HFRQRPHWULF FH GHVFULH

OHJ WXUDGLQWUHFHOHGRX YDULDELOH

 E9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLSDUDPHWULORULDYHURVLPLOLW LLPRGHOXOXL

 F Q FD]XO XQXL QLYHO DO 3,%XOXL UHDOORFXLWRU GH  PLL OHLSHUVRDQ  V  VH HVWLPH]H

VDODULXOPHGLXUHDOORFXLWRU

 5H]ROYDUH

 D3HED]DGDWHORUSUREOHPHLVHSRDWHFRQVWUXLXQPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFXQLIDFWRULDOGHIRUPD

   \ = I [  + X 

 XQGH

  \YDORULOHUHDOHDOHYDULDELOHORUGHSHQGHQWH

  [YDORULOHUHDOHDOHYDULDELOHORULQGHSHQGHQWH

  X  YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  UHSUH]HQWkQG LQIOXHQ HOH FHORUODO L IDFWRUL DL YDULDELOHL \

QHVSHFLILFD L vQ PRGHO FRQVLGHUD L IDFWRUL vQWkPSO WRUL FX LQIOXHQ H QHVHPQLILFDWLYH DVXSUD

YDULDELOHL\

 $QDOL]D GDWHORU GLQ WDEHO vQ UDSRUW FX SURFHVXO HFRQRPLF GHVFULV FRQGXFH OD XUP WRDUHD

VSHFLILFDUHDYDULDELOHORU

 \VDODULXOUHDOORFXLWRUUHSUH]HQWkQGYDULDELODUH]XOWDWLY 

 [  3,%XO UHDOORFXLWRU IDFWRUXO FRQVLGHUDW SULQ LSRWH]D GH OXFUX FX LQIOXHQ D FHD PDL

SXWHUQLF DVXSUDYDULDELOHL\


61
 6SHFLILFDUHD XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF SUHVXSXQH GH DVHPHQHD DOHJHUHD XQHL IXQF LL

PDWHPDWLFH ( I ( [ ))  FX DMXWRUXO F UHLD SRDWH IL GHVFULV  OHJ WXUD GLQWUH FHOH GRX  YDULDELOH Q FD]XO

XQXLPRGHOXQLIDFWRULDOSURFHGHXOFHOPDLGHVIRORVLWvOFRQVWLWXLHUHSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF DFHORUGRX 

LUXULGHYDORULFXDMXWRUXOFRUHORJUDPHL


6DODULXOPHGLXUHDOORF

















      
3,%ORFXLWRU

)LJXUD'LQDPLFDVDODULXOXLPHGLXUHDOORFvQIXQF LHGH3,%XOUHDOORFXLWRU

'LQ JUDILF VH SRDWH REVHUYD F  GLVWULEX LD SXQFWHORU HPSLULFH SRDWH IL DSUR[LPDW  FX R

GUHDSW  &D DWDUH PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF FDUH GHVFULH OHJ WXUD GLQWUH FHOH GRX  YDULDELOH VH

WUDQVIRUP  vQWUXQ PRGHO OLQLDU XQLIDFWRULDO \ 6 = D + E[ 6 + X  W =   D L E UHSUH]HQWkQG

SDUDPHWULLPRGHOXOXL E  SDQWDGUHSWHLILLQGSR]LWLY GHRDUHFHOHJ WXUDGLQWUHFHOHGRX YDULDELOH

HVWHOLQLDU LGLUHFW 

 8UP WRDUHD RSHUD LH FRQVW  vQ HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL D L E FX DMXWRUXO

$
HVWLPDWRULORU D L E QDFHVWVFRSVHYDXWLOL]DPHWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWH0&003
$
8:9 8:9

( ) ( )
; ;

= PLQ (\ < )
<
E
) D - \
< = PLQ \ < -D
-E [
< 7 8 < 7 8


  

&RQGL LDGHPLQLPDDFHVWHLIXQF LLUH]XOW GLQ

) (D
) =  QD
+E [= = \=


( )=  D
>

)E [= +E [= = \ = [=

 D

+   E = 



  D
+  E
=   

YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQHOH


62
 

7DEHOXO


@
E

1U $QXO A  ([ F ) 
[? \? [? \? [?
X C
\ B D
X  -[

FUW

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

7RWDO        

7DEHOXOFRQWLQXDUH


G L U Y `a`
(\ ) (X ) ([ Z )
[]\
I  P  = [X -
K J
X O X
X O Q = \T - \^ 
H - \  O -X
O N M  \T [X 
[ ^_
 V 
- \ T S R -  [ X W

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       


63
 7DEHOXOFRQWLQXDUH

 b
d d g g k o

( ) ( ) (] )
f f f f
 = \ D - \ j i
]  
- ] 
c D D - [ - \ p
\ ] [e  \e  h n n m l ]

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

QXUPDUH]ROY ULLVLVWHPXOXLGHHFXD LLVHRE LQFHLGRLHVWLPDWRUL

= - 
D

E =  

3HED]DHVWLPDWRULORUVHYRUFDOFXODYDORULOHHVWLPDWHDOHYDULDELOHL\

   q
\ = -  +  [ q 

   YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

EQYHGHUHDYHULILF ULLVHPQLILFD LHLSDUDPHWULORULDPRGHOXOXLVHYRUFDOFXOD

 YDORULOHYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH

  r
X = \ r - \
r YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

 DEDWHUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF DYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH V s t 

(\ v - \
v )
  Vwx = XQGHNQXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH
Q - N -

 
  Vyz = =  =  
 - 

  YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

 DEDWHULOHPHGLLS WUDWLFHDOHFHORUGRLHVWLPDWRUL
{
{
 [  
V ~ = V}~ + =  + =   =   

{

([ | ) 
Q  
- [


V 
V = = =   =   
( [ - [ )  

  YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQHOH


64
 UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LH

(\ - \ )

9 9  
 5 = = - = - = - =   =   

 
(\ )
9 9
- \

 YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQHOH

 YDULDELOD'XUELQ:DWVRQG

(X
-X
)

 
  G = = =   
 

X

 YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQHOH

 $VWIHOPRGHOXOHVWLPDWGHYLQH


\ = -  +  [  5 =  

   G =  

      V =   

 9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLPRGHOXOXLQHFHVLW 

 YHULILFDUHDLSRWH]HLGHLQGHSHQGHQ DHURULORU

 YHULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLHVWLPDWRULORU

 YHULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLUDSRUWXOXLGHFRUHOD LH

 9HULILFDUHD LSRWH]HL GH LQGHSHQGHQ  D HURULORU FDUH SUHVXSXQH FRY( X

 X ) =   VH

UHDOL]HD]  FX DMXWRUXO WHVWXOXL'XUELQ:DWVRQFRQVWkQGvQFDOFXODUHDYDULDELOHL G LFRPSDUDUHDVD

FX GRX  YDORUL WHRUHWLFH G  L G  (G =  G =  )  SUHOXDWH GLQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL 'XUELQ

:DWVRQ vQ IXQF LH GH XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a  (a =  )  GH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU H[SOLFDWLYH N 

(N = ) LGHQXP UXOREVHUYD LLORU Q  ( Q ) 

'HRDUHFH YDORDUHD FDOFXODW  HVWH FXSULQV  vQ LQWHUYDOXO   G   G   UHJXOD GH

GHFL]LHLQGLF DXWRFRUHOD LHSR]LWLY FDUHWUHEXLHHOLPLQDW 

 'LQ DFHVW PRWLY QX PDL DUH VHQV WHVWDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL HVWLPDWRULORU L D UDSRUWXOXL GH

FRUHOD LH HVWLPDWRULL QHPDLILLQG HILFLHQ L GHFL VH LPSXQH PDL vQWkL HOLPLQDUHD IHQRPHQXOXL GH

DXWRFRUHOD LHDHURULORU

 (OLPLQDUHD IHQRPHQXOXL GH DXWRFRUHODUH D HURULORU SUHVXSXQH HIHFWXDUHD XUP WRDUHORU

RSHUD LL

 HURULOHILLQGFRUHODWHDGLF 

X = U
( )
X + ]  () 

VHYDHVWLPDYDORDUHDFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHGHRUGLQXO

X
X
X
X


 
U( ) = = = =   
 

X
X

  YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQHOH

 WLLQGF 

\ = D + E[ + X X = \ - D - E[ 

   \ = D + E[ + X X = \ - D - E[ 

H[SUHVLLOHRE LQXWHSHQWUX X L X YRUILvQORFXLWHvQUHOD LDLVHRE LQH

   \ - D - E[ = U
( )
(\ - D - E[ ) + ] 

   \ - U
( )
\ = D - U ( ( ) ) + E( [ - U
( )
[ ) + ] 


65

 1RWkQGFX \ = \ - U \ 
( )

   [ = [ - U [ 
( )

   D (
= D - U
( ) )
   E = E

 VHRE LQH


   \ = D + E [ + ] \
=D
+ E [ 

 

QYHGHUHDHVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORU D L E VHDSOLF 0&003 $ $

:

( ) ( )



   E
) D = PLQ \ -D
- E [ 


) (D ) =  (Q - )D

   + E [ = \ 

( )=  D

( )


   ) E [ + E [ = \ [ 

D

+  E = 

   

 D
+  E =  

   YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQHOH

 )XQF LDGHUHJUHVLHRE
LQXW YDILGHIRUPD

\ = -  +   [ YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

 &DLvQFD]XOPRGHOXOXLLQL LDOVHYRUFDOFXOD

 YDORULOHYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH


] = \ - \
YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

 DEDWHUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF DYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH

]

 
V = = = =  =  
(Q - ) - 
s


  YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

 DEDWHULOHPHGLLS WUDWLFHDOHFHORUGRLHVWLPDWRUL

 [  
V = V + =  + =  
(Q - )

( )



- [
[


V
]
 
V = = =  

([ )
 
E  

- [
W =

  YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

 UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LH

 
5= - =   =   
 

  YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

 


66
 YDULDELOD'XUELQ:DWVRQ

(]
- ]
)
 
G = = =  

 
]

  YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQDL

 3HED]DFDOFXOHORUGHPDLVXVUH]XOW PRGHOXO


\ = -  +   [  5 =  

   G =  

      V =  

 8WLOL]kQG WHVWXO 'XUELQ:DWVRQ SHQWUX D YHULILFD GDF  IHQRPHQXO GH DXWRFRUHOD LH D IRVW

HOLPLQDWSHQWUXXQSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LH a =  

C N =  Q =  @  YDORULOHWHRUHWLFHDOHYDULDELOHL

'XUELQ:DWVRQ VXQW G =  G =   Q FRPSDUD LH FX DFHVWHD YDORDUHD HPSLULF  G =   VH

VLWXHD]  DVWIHO G =  < G =  <  - G =    FHHD FH LQGLF  LQGHSHQGHQ D HURULORU

DXWRFRUHOD LDILLQGDVWIHOHOLPLQDW 

 (VWLPDWRULLPRGHOXOXLVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHUL LGH]HURGDF 

$
D
   W = W

V ( )

-  
   W 
= =   
 

E

   W  = W 
(   )    

V


 
   W   = =  
 

 /XFUkQG FX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a  (a =  )  GLQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL 6WXGHQW VH SUHLD

YDORDUHD W    
  =    &RPSDUkQG DFHDVW  YDORDUHFXYDORULOHFDOFXODWHSHQWUXFHLGRLHVWLPDWRUL

VHFRQVWDW F 

  W "$# %  =   < W  

!
   =   SDUDPHWUXO D & QXHVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULWGH]HUR $
 W -/. 0 =  > W ( ( )
, + '' =   SDUDPHWUXO E 1 HVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULWGH]HUR
$
*

9HULILFDUHD YHURVLPLOLW LL PRGHOXOXL VH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO DQDOL]HL GLVSHUVLRQDOH DQDOL]D

YDULD LHLYH]L7DEHOXO

'LQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL )LVKHU6QHGHFNRU FX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH GH  L vQ IXQF LH GH

QXP UXO JUDGHORU GH OLEHUWDWH Y 2 = N =   L Y 3 = (Q - ) - N -  =   VH SUHLD YDORDUHD WHRUHWLF 

) 5 5 6 4 44
8 7 7 =    'HRDUHFH )> =   > ) : : ;
= < 9 < 99 =    UH]XOW  IDSWXO F  PRGHOXO OLQLDU HVWH

HVWLPDWFRUHVSXQ] WRU

 5DSRUWXO GH FRUHOD LH HVWH VHPQLILFDWLY GLIHULW GH ]HUR GDF  VH YHULILF  LQHJDOLWDWHD

)? )BDCA
@AC @ F XQGHYDORDUHDHPSLULF DYDULDELOHL)LVKHU6QHGHFRUHVWH
EG


J
5 (Q - ) - N -  
)I H = J =  = 
 - 5 N  - 


 6H FRQVWDW  F  )> =   > ) : : ;

= < 9 < 99 =    GHFL SHQWUX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH GH 

YDORDUHDUDSRUWXOXLGHFRUHOD LHHVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULW GH]HUR


67


7DEHOXO

6XUVDGH 0 VXUDYDULD LHL 1UJUDGHORUGH 'LVSHUVLLFRUHFWDWH 9DORDUHD

YDULD LH OLEHUWDWH WHVWXOXL)

QSR T Y `
KL L
K P T ( )
T
9DULDQ D  Y 9 U V ] _ \ [ _
9 MON = \
- \ =
 VX U W U = V =

^
) = ` = 
H[SOLFDW  N =   V N VZ

GHPRGHO =  
=   = 

aSb c j
( g g )
c e e
9DULDQ D  j 9k

9 f h = d
i \ - \
=
c  (Q -) - N - = Vk =
UH]LGXDO  
 (Q -) - N -


=   =  
= 
lnm o
( s )
9DULDQ D
o r r   
9 p =q
t \ -\ =
WRWDO  o  (Q -  ) -  =    

= 


u u

Q FRQFOX]LH PRGHOXO \ v = -  +   [ v  SRDWH IL DSUHFLDW FD UHSUH]HQWDWLY

SHQWUX GHVFULHUHD GHSHQGHQ HL GLQWUH VDODULXO PHGLX UHDOORFXLWRU L 3,%XO UHDOORFXLWRU DFHVWD

H[SOLFkQGGLQYDULD LDWRWDO DYDULDELOHLGHSHQGHQWHDGLF YDULD LDVDODULXOXLPHGLXUHDOORF

VHGDWRUHD] vQSURSRU LHGH3,%XOUHDOORFXLWRU

z z
z z z 9w 9x
9y = 9w + 9x  = z  + z  
9y 9y

LFDDWDUHSRDWHILXWLOL]DWvQYHGHUHDGHWHUPLQ ULLSURJQR]HL

 

F Q FD]XO vQ FDUH VDODULXOXL PHGLX UHDOORFXLWRU L VH DWULEXLH YDORDUHD [ {   PLL

OHLORFXLWRU3,%XOUHDOORFXLWRUYDILHJDOFX


+E
 
\ ~$ /} ~ =D [ | = -  +     =  OHL



 3H ED]D LSRWH]HL IRUPXODWH OD SXQFWHOH SUHFHGHQWH 3,%XO UHDOORFXLWRU \ XUPHD]  R

LGHDEDWHUHPHGLHS WUDWLF 
GLVWULEX LHQRUPDO VDXGLVWULEX LD6WXGHQWGDF  Q  GHPHGLH \

V  / ( \ )= 1 (\
V ) 



 3HQWUX[ { PLLOHL
\ $ / =  OHL


([ )



 - [

 (  -  )
V = V + + =   + + =  

( )
Q   
[ - [

 

(VWLPDUHD 3,%XOXL UHDOORFXLWRU FDUH VH SRDWH RE LQH GDF  VDODULXOXL PHGLX UHDOORFXLWRU LD

YDORDUHD[ { PLLOHLORFXLWRUSHED]DXQXLLQWHUYDOGHvQFUHGHUHVHFDOFXOHD] FXUHOD LD

( )=

 
3 \ -W V \
\ +W V S =-a 
$ /
$ / $ /

 3HQWUX a =    GLQWDEHODGLVWULEX LHL6WXGHQWVHSUHLDYDORDUHD W  

=   

 'HFL FX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH GH  VDX FX RSUREDELOLWDWHHJDO FXYDORDUHD3,%

XOXLUHDOORFXLWRUYDILFXSULQV vQLQWHUYDOXO

( )

  3 \ $ /
[   ] =  -   =   

( )

  3 \ $ /
[   ] =  



68
 %,%/,2*5$),(


%DOWDJL%(FRQRPHWULFV6SULQJHU%HUOLQ

*LUDXG5&KDL[1eFRQRPpWULH38)3DULV

*UHHQH+:(FRQRPHWULF$QDO\VLV0DFPLOODQ3XEOLVKLQJ&RPSDQ\1HZ<RUN
S
*XMDUDWL51%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

*XMDUDWL51(VVHQWLDOVRI(FRQRPHWULFV0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN
S
-RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGV HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

/DEURXVVH&,QWURGXFWLRQDOpFRQRPpWULH'XQRG3DULV
S
0DGGDOD*6,QWURGXFWLRQWR(FRQRPHWULFV HG0F0LOODQ&R1HZ<RUN

 3LQG\FN 5 6 5XELQIHOG ' 6  (FRQRPHWULF 0RGHOV DQG (FRQRPLF )RUHFDVWV   HG 0F

*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

9DQJUHYHOLQJKH*eFRQRPpWULH+HUPDQQ&ROOHFWLRQ0pWKRGHV3DULV


69
 &DSLWROXO,9

0RGHOXOPXOWLIDFWRULDO


6SHFLILFDUHDLGHILQLUHDPRGHOXOXLPXOWLIDFWRULDO


6XEIRUP JHQHUDO XQPRGHOH[SOLFDWLYPXOWLIDFWRULDOVHGHILQHWHSULQXUP WRDUHDUHOD LH

\ I[ X       

XQGH

\ YDULDELODHQGRJHQ GHSHQGHQW VDXH[SOLFDW 

[ YDULDELOHOHH[RJHQHLQGHSHQGHQWHVDXH[SOLFDWLYH

 M =  N  N QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH

X YDULDELODUH]LGXDO VDXDOHDWRDUHVDXHURDUH

I [   IXQF LD GH UHJUHVLH FX DMXWRUXO F UHLD YRU IL HVWLPDWH DSUR[LPDWH YDORULOH

YDULDELOHL\GHWHUPLQDWHQXPDLGHLQIOXHQ DIDFWRULORU[ FRQVLGHUD LHVHQ LDOLSULQFLSDOLKRW UkWRUL

H[FHSWkQG LQIOXHQ D FHORUODO L IDFWRUL DL IHQRPHQXOXL \ FDUH VXQW FRQVLGHUD L IDFWRUL QHHVHQ LDOL

QHVHPQLILFDWLYL GH H[SOLFDUH D DSDUL LHL L D HYROX LHL vQ WLPS L vQ VSD LX D IHQRPHQXOXL \ DFHWLD

ILLQGWUDWD LVHSDUDWFXDMXWRUXOYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHX

0RGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF  WUHEXLH LQWHUSUHWDW FD R H[SUHVLH IRUPDO  D PHWRGHL

HFRQRPHWULFHGHLQYHVWLJDUHDXQXLRELHFWHFRQRPLF

5HDOLWDWHD\ 7HRULD>I[ @QWkPSODUHDX

&D UHJXO  JHQHUDO  L IXQGDPHQWDO  VSHFLILFDUHD XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VH IDFH SH ED]D

WHRULHL HFRQRPLFH )HQRPHQXO HFRQRPLF \ VH SUHFL]HD]  SH ED]D FRQFHSWHORU GHILQL LLORU L D

UHOD LLORU FDX] HIHFW HODERUDWH GH F WUH DFHDVWD L VH DFFHSW  IHQRPHQXO [  FD IDFWRU HVHQ LDO VDX VH

UHVSLQJHLVHWUHFHvQFDWHJRULDIDFWRULORUvQWkPSO WRULSULQLQWHUPHGLXOYDULDELOHLDOHDWRDUHX

'LPHQVLXQHDSDFKHWXOXLGHYDULDELOHH[SOLFDWLYH[ GHSLQGHvQV LGHEDQFDGHGDWHVWDWLVWLFH

DYDULDELOHORUUHVSHFWLYHGHFDQWLWDWHDLGHFDOLWDWHDDFHVWRUD

Q HFRQRPLH PRGHOHOH PXOWLIDFWRULDOH DX R DULH YDVW  GH DSOLFDUHDFHVWHDSXWkQGILXWLOL]DWH

vQPDLPXOWHVLWXD LLLVXEGLYHUVHIRUPHFDGHH[HPSOX

D PRGHODUHDFRQVXPXOXL

& I931X      

XQGH

& FRQVXPXOXQXLSURGXVVDXJUXSHGHSURGXVH

9 YHQLWXOSHIDPLOLH

3 SUH XOSURGXVXOXLVDXLQGLFHOHSUH XULORUJUXSHLGHSURGXVH

1 QXP UXOPHPEULORUXQHLIDPLOLL

E IXQF LDGHSURGXF LH&REE'RXJODV

4 I./X      

XQGH

4 YROXPXOYDORDUHDSURGXF LHL

. FDSLWDOXO

/ IRU DGHPXQF 

F PRGHODUHDHYROX LHLSUH XULORU

  
,  I, , , X     

XQGH


,  LQGLFHOHSUH XULORU

,  LQGLFHOHYHQLWXULORUVDODULLORUFRQVXPDWRULORU

,  LQGLFHOHFXUVXOXLYDOXWDU

,  LQGLFHOHPDVHLPRQHWDUH

70


,GHQWLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLPXOWLIDFWRULDO


&D L vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL XQLIDFWRULDO LGHQWLILFDUHD HFRQRPHWULF  FRQVW  vQ DOHJHUHD XQHL

IXQF LLPDWHPDWLFHvQYHGHUHDGHVFULHULLOHJ WXULLDUHOD LHLGLQWUHYDULDELODHQGRJHQ \LIDFWRULLV L

GHLQIOXHQ [  [ [ [ $FHDVW DOHJHUHVHIDFHvQFRQFRUGDQ FXVHULLOHVWDWLVWLFHVHULLGH

VSD LXVDXGHWLPSDOHYDULDELOHL\LDOHYDULDELOHORU[ DOHDFHVWRUYDULDELOHSUHOXDWHGLQWURED] GH

GDWHVDXFRQVWUXLWHvQXUPDXQRUREVHUY ULVWDWLVWLFHVSHFLDORUJDQL]DWH

$VWIHOGDF VHGLVSXQHGHXUP WRDUHOHLQIRUPD LL

[ 
 [   [  \ 

[    [   [
  \ 

[   [    [  \ 

M M  M M
[   [    [  \ 



XQGH

 W =  Q Q QXP UXOWHUPHQLORUVHULLORUVWDWLVWLFH

 M =  N N QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH

,GHQWLILFDUHD SUHVXSXQH FD SH ED]D GDWHORU H[SHULPHQWDOH \  L [  V  VH J VHDVF  R IXQF LH

PDWHPDWLF <  I[ FXDMXWRUXOF UHLDV VHHVWLPH]HYDORULOHYDULDELOHL\QXPDLSHED]DYDORULORU

YDULDELOHORU[ 

 6SUH GHRVHELUH GH FD]XO XQLIDFWRULDO XQGH SURFHGHXO JUDILF VDX FDOFXOHOH DOJHEULFH RIHUHDX

LQIRUPD LLUHODWLYFRUHFWHSHQWUXLGHQWLILFDUHDIXQF LHLGHUHJUHVLHvQFD]XOPRGHOHORUPXOWLIDFWRULDOH

DFHVWOXFUXU PkQHYDODELOGRDUvQFD]XOvQFDUHVHYDOXFUDFXVHULLELGLPHQVLRQDOH\ [ 

\ [ \ 

[ \ [ 

8Q DOW PRG GH DOHJHUH D IXQF LHL GH UHJUHVLH PXOWLIDFWRULDOH FRQVW  XWLOL]DUHD HVWLPDUHD

YHULILFDUHD L FRPSDUDUHD PDL PXOWRU WLSXUL GH IXQF LL GH UHJUHVLH L GH D GHFLGH vQ ILQDO  YH]L

FRHILFLHQ LLGHSHUIRUPDQ DLXQXLPRGHOPXOWLIDFWRULDOOLQLDUFDUHHVWHFHOPDLSHUIRUPDQWPRGHO

vQUDSRUWFXGDWHOHH[SHULPHQWDOH

'HUHJXO vQHFRQRPLHSULQFLSDOHOHIXQF LLGHUHJUHVLHPXOWLIDFWRULDOHVXQWGHIRUPD

IXQF LDOLQLDU 

<  E  E  [ 

E  [  E  [     

IXQF LDOLQLDU GXEOXORJDULWPLF 

     
< = E [  [  K [       

 OQ <  = OQ E +E OQ [  + E OQ [   + K + E OQ [  
!   

IXQF LDOLQLDU VHPLORJDULWPLF 

% + ' % *$ *# ' % ) $ ) # ' ' % " $ "#
<& = H (     

 OQ< =E +E [ +E [ + K+E [    

W   W  W N NW

VDX
. 2- 3. 1 - . ,-
<0 = E5 E4 E K E/      

OQ< = OQ E + OQ E [ + OQ E [ + K + OQ E [  
W   W  W N NW

OQ< = b + b [ + b [ + K+ b [    
W   W  W N NW

XQGH b = OQ E 
 

 M
b = OQ E  M =  N 
M M

71
 'HUH LQXWF DWkWvQHWDSDGHVSHFLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLFkWLvQHWDSDGHLGHQWLILFDUHVROX LLOH

DFFHSWDWH

 [6 SULQFLSDOLLIDFWRULGHLQIOXHQ DLIHQRPHQXOXL\

 <8 = I ([ 78 ) = E ; + E: [ : 8 + E9 [ 9 8 + K + E7 [ 78  M =  N  W =  Q UHOD LDGHGHSHQGHQ 

QXVXQWDOWFHYDGHFkWVLPSOHLSRWH]HGHOXFUX

9DOLGDUHD VDX LQILUPDUHD DFHVWRUD YD FRQVWLWXL GH DOWIHO SULQFLSDOXO RELHFWLY DO HWDSHL GH

YHULILFDUHHFRQRPHWULF DPRGHOXOXL

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXLPXOWLIDFWRULDO


(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXLVHIDFHvQXUPDHWDSHLGHLGHQWLILFDUHDDFHVWXLD'HRDUHFH

PDUHD PDMRULWDWH D PRGHOHORU HFRQRPHWULFH SRW IL OLQLDUL]DWH XQ PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO vQ IRUP 

JHQHUDO VHSUH]LQW DVWIHO

\ <  E = [ =
< E > [ >
< E ? [ ?< E 6 [6
< E @ [@< XA 

XQGH

W =  Q Q QXP UXOWHUPHQLORUVHULLORUVWDWLVWLFH

 M =  N N QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH

FHHDFHDQDOLWLFGHYLQH

\ F = E + EF + E D ++ E C + XF
G
[ FHF [ F D [ FIC

\
D = E G + E F [ DF + E D [ DHD + + E C [ DEC + X D



\ B = E
G +
E B [ BF + E D [ BED + + E C [ BC + XB
 
XQGH[ =  UHSUH]LQW YDULDELODFHVHDWDHD] WHUPHQXOXLOLEHUDOHF UHLYDORUL[ <

= VXQWHJDOHFXXQLWDWHD " W =  Q 

'HILQLQGFX

\ L

\
K
< = YHFWRUXO FRORDQ  DO YDULDELOHL HQGRJHQH \  W =  Q GH

<
M


\ J

GLPHQVLXQHQ


[ O O KKK [ O M

 [ Q O KKK[ Q M

; =  [ P O KKK [ P M  PDWULFHD YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH [6   M =  N  GH


KKKKKKKK

 [ N O KKK [ N M

GLPHQVLXQHQN

E U

E
T

% = E S
 YHFWRUXO FRORDQ  DO SDUDPHWULORU E 6  Y[Z WX
V  GH GLPHQVLXQH N 
M

E R



72
 X _

X
^

8 = X ]  YHFWRUXO FRORDQ  DO YDULDELOHL DOHDWRDUH X <  W =  Q GH GLPHQVLXQH

M

X \

Q

5HOD LDVXEIRUP PDWULFHDO GHYLQH

< ;%8       

5HOD LDVHPDLSRDWHVFULHDVWIHO

\ a  [ a a KK [ a d E b X a

\
`  [ ` a KK [ ` d E
a X `
= +

M KKKKKKK M M    

X

\ c  [ c a KK [ c d
E d

c

 Q  Q  N +   N +    Q 

)XQF LD GH UHJUHVLH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH PRGHOXOXL VFULV  VXE IRUPD XQHL HFXD LL PDWULFHDOH

HVWH

< = ; %        

5H]LGXXULOH e HVWLPD LLOHYDULDELOHLDOHDWRDUHXVHGHILQHVFDVWIHO

=< -< = <

8 - ; %      

XQGH < YDORULOHHVWLPDWHDMXVWDWHDOHYDULDELOHL<

Q FD]XO XQXL PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO SDUDPHWULL SRW IL HVWLPD L SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO PDL PXOWRU

PHWRGH FXP DU IL PHWRGD SXQFWHORU HPSLULFH PHWRGD SXQFWHORU PHGLL PHWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL

S WUDWH0&003PHWRGDYHURVLPLOLW LLPD[LPHHWF

0HWRGD SXQFWHORU HPSLULFH L PHWRGD SXQFWHORU PHGLL VXQW IRORVLWH vQ FD]XO PRGHOHORU vQ

FDUH DSOLFDUHD PHWRGHL FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH HVWH DQHYRLRDV  QHFHVLWkQG FDOFXOH FRPSOLFDWH GH

UHJXO SHQWUXIXQF LLOHQHOLQLDUHIXQF LDORJLVWLF 

0HWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH HVWH PHWRGD FHO PDL GHV XWLOL]DW  Q FD]XO XQXL PRGHO

PXOWLIDFWRULDODSOLFDUHDDFHVWHLDSUHVXSXQHPLQLPL]DUHDIXQF LHL
g i i
$ ) (<
i
) (% ) = (<
$ P LQ j X f = P LQ 8 8 = P LQ - <
$) = P LQ < - ( ;%
$) = P LQ (< - ;% -
$) =
;% 
fh

(
= P LQ < < -  % ( ; < ) + % ( ; ;
$ $ )% )
$      

FDUHLPSOLF FDOFXOXOGHULYDWHLIXQF LHLvQUDSRUWFXHVWLPDWRUXO %

LDQXODUHDDFHVWHLD

) ( % )
$
=  - ( ; < ) + ( ; ; )% =      
$ 
$
%

( ; ; ) % = ; < 
$     

QFD]XOvQFDUHPDWULFHD;;DGPLWHLQYHUV
l SULQvQPXO LUHDODVWkQJDDHFXD LHLPDWULFHDOH

FX;; k UH]XOW F 

m n m n
(; ; ) (; ; ) % = (; ; ) (; < ) 
$    

(VWLPDWRULLSDUDPHWULORUVHFDOFXOHD] DVWIHOFXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

Er

q
r E

% = (;
; )o (;
< )=      
M

p
E

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFPXOWLIDFWRULDOOLQLDUVHSRDWHIDFHLSHED]D

PDWULFHLYDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ HORULDPDWULFHLFRHILFLHQ LORUGHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU VLPSOL

73
 )LHPRGHOXO

\s = Ev + Eu [ u s + Et [ t s + Xs      

6HvQVXPHD] LVHvPSDUWHODQRE LQkQGXVHHFXD LD

  \ = Ew + E xy
[x + Ez{
[z       

6HVFDGHHFXD LDGLQLUH]XOW 

  \| ([ } |
- \ = E }~ - [} ) ([  |
+ E - [ ) + X|    

6HQRWHD] FX

  \ = \ - \ 
W W

  [ = [ - [ 

  [ = [ - [ 
W W 

0RGHOXOFRQVWUXLWSHED]DDEDWHULORUFHQWUDWHVWDQGDUGDOHYDULDELOHORUGHYLQH

\ =E [ +E [ +X      
W  W  W W

9DORULOHDMXVWDWHDOHYDULDELOHLHQGRJHQHVHFDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

E

= E [ +E [
<

     
(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUDFHVWXLPRGHOVHUHDOL]HD] FXDMXWRUXO0&003

( ) = PLQ ( ) = PLQ ( )



-< - E [ -E [
) E E \ \


0LQLPXO DFHVWHL IXQF LL HVWH GDW GH FDOFXOXO GHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL

PRGHOXOXL

( )

( )
) E

E


= E [ +E [ = \

( )
[ [

E

( )


( )

) E  E


= E [ +E [ = \

( )
[ [

E

)LHFDUHGLQHFXD LLOHVLVWHPXOXLGHHFXD LLVHvPSDUWHODQ

([ - [ ) ([ )([ ) (\ )([ )
- [ - [
- \ - [

E
+ E =
Q Q Q

([ )([ ) ([ ) (\ )([ )
- [ - [ - [ - \ - [


E + E =

Q Q Q

QILQDOVLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLVHSUH]LQW DVWIHO

+ E FRY( [  [ )= FRY( \  [ )

E
s

E FRY( [  [ ) + E = FRY( \  [ )
s

   
(VWLPDWRULLSDUDPHWULORUVHYRUFDOFXODDVWIHO

FRY( \  [ ) FRY( [  [ )

FRY( \  [ ) s

E = 
s FRY( [  [ )

FRY( [  [ ) s

s FRY( \  [ )

FRY( [  [ ) FRY( \  [ )

E = 
s FRY( [  [ )

FRY( [  [ ) s

74
 7HUPHQXO OLEHU E  SRDWH IL HVWLPDW GLQ UHOD LD  GXS  FDOFXOXO HVWLPDWRULORU

SDUDPHWULORU E L E DVWIHO

$
E = \ - E y
[
$ - E {
[
$ 

0DWULFHDYDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ
HORUVHGHILQHWHDVWIHO

s FRY( \
 [ ) FRY( \  [ )

9 = FRY( [  \ ) s FRY( [  [ )    

FRY( [  \) FRY( [  [ ) s

VDXvQFD]XOJHQHUDO



s FRY( \  [ ) FRY( \  [ )  FRY( \  [ )

FRY( [  \ ) s FRY( [  [ )  FRY( [  [ )


9 = FRY( [  \ ) FRY( [  [ ) s  FRY( [  [ ) 

    

FRY( [  \ ) FRY( [  [ ) FRY( [  [ )  s

XQGH

( )
Q 

\ W
 W =
  s = HVWHGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL\
\
Q

( )
Q 

[ MW
 W =
  s = HVWHGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL [  M =  Q 
[
Q

(\ )([ )

- \ - [ \
(\ )=
[
W MW W MW
  FRY [ = 
M
Q Q

'LVSXQkQGGHPDWULFHD9HVWLPDWRULL E = E VHFDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL
M \  [


9
  

E

= E = (- )
H  M =  N    
9

 XQGH

  9E = GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHLYDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ HORUGLQFDUHVHHOLPLQ 

OLQLD\LFRORDQD [ 

  9H = GHWHUPLQDQWXO PDWULFHL YDULDQ HORU L FRYDULDQ HORU GLQ FDUH VH HOLPLQ 

OLQLD\LFRORDQD\

5DSRUWXO GH FRUHOD LH PXOWLSO  SRDWH IL H[SULPDW FX DMXWRUXO PDWULFHL YDULDQ HORU L

FRYDULDQ HORUDVWIHO

9 
5 = -      
\  [

9
\\
s
\

(VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL FX DMXWRUXO PDWULFHL FRHILFLHQ LORU GH FRUHOD LH OLQLDU 

SUHVXSXQHHIHFWXDUHDXUP WRDUHORURSHUD LL

s s
VHvQPXO HWHUHOD LDFX L 
s s

([ ) ([ )

\ - \ - [ - [
s = E s + E s +X   
s s s

75
 DEDWHULOHVWDQGDUGQRUPDWHVHQRWHD] FX
\ - \
\ = 
s

[  - [
[  = 
s

UHOD LDGHYLQH

s \ = E s [ + E s [ + X     

IXQF LDGHUHJUHVLHFRUHVSXQ] WRDUHHVWHXUP WRDUHD

E

= E s [ + E s [     
<


 VH HVWLPHD]  SDUDPHWULL PRGHOXOXL E  M =    FX DMXWRUXO 0&003 FDUH SUHVXSXQH

PLQLPL]DUHDIXQF LHL

( ) ( )

( ) = PLQ


s -< = PLQ s - E s [ - E s [ 
) E \ \

( ) ( ) = s ( )


( )

E s [ + E s [ [ \

[

) E
=  
( )


( ) (\ )


E
E s [ [ + E s [ = s
[

\ W
[
WM \ W
[
WM
6HWLHF  U = = L U
=  

( ) ( )
\ [
Q s s  

\ [ WM
\ [
W

QDFHVWFD]VLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLQRUPDOHGHYLQH

E

   s

+E s      U = s   U

   

E
     
s U

+E
   s = s   U

0DWULFHDFRHILFLHQ LORUGHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU VLPSO DYDULDELOHORUVHGHILQHWH

 U
 U  

5 = U     U        

U   U   

VDXvQFD]XOJHQHUDO

 U  U    U    U  

U    U     U     U   
5 =    

      

U

 U  U   U   

'LVSXQkQGGHDFHDVW PDWULFHHVWLPDWRULL E
$   $
= E VHFDOFXOHD] SHED]DUHOD LHLXUP WRDUH

!#" 5   s 

E  $
= E = (- )     
5  s 
XQGH

 5 &' % = GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHL5GLQFDUHVDHOLPLQDWOLQLD\LFRORDQD [  (

 5 )) = GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHL5GLQFDUHVDHOLPLQDWOLQLD\LFRORDQD\

&XDMXWRUXODFHVWHLPDWULFLVHSRWFDOFXOD

76
 FRHILFLHQ LLGHFRUHOD LHSDU LDOL

1 3, 5 .0- +
U . 2 - +2 - * = (- )     

5 ./. 5 - +- *
1 3, 5 .0- *
U . 2-*2-+ = (- )     

5 ./. 5 - +- *
UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LHPXOWLSO 

5
5
\  [ ( =       
5
\\

,SRWH]HSHQWUXHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORU


$SOLFDUHD 0&003 vQ FD]XO XQXL PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO VH IXQGDPHQWHD]  SH FkWHYD

LSRWH]HLDQXPH

4
, 9DULDELOHOH\[ [ QXVXQWDIHFWDWHGHHURULGHP VXU  5 6
7
,  9DULDELOD DOHDWRDUH UH]LGXDO  8 HVWH GH PHGLH QXO  0X  5  0X  8   0X  9   LDU

GLVSHUVLD HL s
8#:  HVWH FRQVWDQW  L LQGHSHQGHQW  GH YDULDELOHOH H[RJHQH ;
;  LSRWH]D GH

KRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWH

<
,  9DORULOH YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH 8 VXQW LQGHSHQGHQWH UHVSHFWLY QX H[LVW  IHQRPHQXO GH

DXWRFRUHODUHDHURULORUFRYX = X >   "W  W =  Q 

?
,  /HJHD GH SUREDELOLWDWH D YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH HVWH OHJHD QRUPDO  GH PHGLH ]HUR L GH

DEDWHUHPHGLHS WUDWLF s 

:
Q DIDUD DFHVWRU LSRWH]H FDUH VXQW DFHOHDL L vQ FD]XO XQXL PRGHO XQLIDFWRULDO H[LVW  R

LSRWH]  VSHFLILF  PRGHOXOXL PXOWLIDFWRULDO L DQXPH  ,  9DULDELOHOH H[RJHQH ;  VXQW LQGHSHQGHQWH @ ;

vQWUH HOH IRUPkQG XQ VLVWHP GH YHFWRUL OLQLDUL LQGHSHQGHQ L Q FD] FRQWUDU DSDUH IHQRPHQXO GH

PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWH FDUH LPSOLF  LPSRVLELOLWDWHD FDOFXO ULL PDWULFLL LQYHUVH;; A5  SUHFXP L D

HVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORU

'DF LSRWH]HOH, , 4 @ H[LVW DWXQFLVHSRWGHPRQVWUDXUP WRDUHOH

 X B = \ B
B
- < HVWLPD LLOHYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH8

XQGH \  C YDORULOHHPSLULFHDOHYDULDELOHLHQGRJHQH<

<  B  YDORULOH WHRUHWLFH DOH YDULDELOHL HQGRJHQH FDOFXODW  SH ED]D IXQF LHL GH

UHJUHVLH < = ;% VDX < B
= E F
+E [
E EB
+  + E [ D DB 
G
G X H J
 s I =   HVWLPD LD GLVSHUVLHL s K  D YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH X Q ILLQG QXP UXO GH
Q - N -

REVHUYD LLLDUN QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[SOLFDWLYH

R R
 V OP Q = V N F LM HVWLPD LLOHGLVSHUVLLORUSDUDPHWULORU E  ( ( V U TS 

X=

XQGH F  W;  HOHPHQWXO M VLWXDW SH GLDJRQDOD SULQFLSDO  D PDWULFHL LQYHUVH ;; 

M =  N 

 PHGLD FRQGL LRQDW  D YDULDELOHL < vQ IXQF LH GH YDORULOH IDFWRULORU ;  OD PRPHQWXO W HVWH ;

HJDO FX <  B
0 <
W  ;
Y  =<

W

=E


+E [
 

+  + E
N
[
N

   

77
  GLVSHUVLD FRQGL LRQDW  D YDULDELOHL < HURDUHD GH HVWLPDUH D DFHVWHLD VH FDOFXOHD]  FX

DMXWRUXOUHOD LHL
c c c [ b
V ] a` _^ = 0  \ Z -<
Z  =V \ [ + ; Z (;
; ) d ; Z ]  



[ W

XQGH ;
W
=

[
W

HVWHYHFWRUXOFRORDQ DOYDORULORUYDULDELOHORUIDFWRULDOH; vQPRPHQWXOW e
M

[
NW

GHGLPHQVLXQHNLDU ; = WUDQVSXVDPDWULFHL; 

W
f


9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLPRGHOXOXL


9HULILFDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL PRGHOXOXL SUHVXSXQH YHULILFDUHD LSRWH]HORU GH DSOLFDUH D

0&003 YHULILFDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL HVWLPDWRULORU D YHURVLPLOLW LL PRGHOXOXL L D VHPQLILFD LHL

UDSRUWXOXLGHFRUHOD LH

Q DFHDVW  HWDS  HVWH QHFHVDU  YHULILFDUHD  D SRVWHULRUL ! D LSRWH]HORU GH DSOLFDUH D

0&003GHRDUHFHvQJHQHUDOHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUVHHIHFWXHD] vQXUPDDFFHSW ULLDSULRULFH

DYDODELOLW LLLSRWH]HORUHQXQ DWH

g h i
j
9HULILFDUHD LSRWH]HORU ,  ,  ,  L ,  FD L WHVWDUHD HVWLPDWRULORU E  D PRGHOXOXL L D k
UDSRUWXOXL GH FRUHOD LH 5 n oml  VH IDFH GXS  DFHOHDL SULQFLSLL SUH]HQWDWH vQ FD]XO UHJUHVLHL

XQLIDFWRULDOH

p
9HULILFDUHD LSRWH]HL ,  SUHVXSXQH FD YDULDELOHOH H[RJHQH V  IRUPH]H XQ VLVWHP GH YHFWRUL

OLQLDULLQGHSHQGHQ LUHVSHFWLYYDULDELOHOHH[RJHQHV QXILHFRUHODWH

2SXVXO DFHVWXL IHQRPHQ vO UHSUH]LQW  PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWHD YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH FDUH HVWH XQ

IHQRPHQ IRDUWH IUHFYHQW vQ GRPHQLXO HFRQRPLF GDWRULW  PXOWLSOHORU UHOD LL GH GHSHQGHQ  L

LQWHUGHSHQGHQ  GLQWUH IHQRPHQHOH HFRQRPLFH Q DFHVW VFRSVHLPSXQHRDERUGDUHHFRQRPHWULF vQ

VFRSXOGHSLVW ULLLHOLPLQ ULLDFHVWXLD

'HSLVWDUHD IHQRPHQXOXL GH PXOWLFROLQHDULWDWH VH SRDWH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO PDL PXOWRU SURFHGHH

FXPDUIL

 UHSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF  D VHULLORU GH YDORUL FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH YDULDELOHORU H[SOLFDWLYH YH]L

)LJXUD QU  Q FD]XO vQ FDUH VH FRQVWDW  DQDORJLL vQ HYROX LH DFHVWHD LQGLF  H[LVWHQ D XQHL

FRUHOD LLVXILFLHQWGHLQWHQVHvQWUHYDULDELOHOHUHVSHFWLYH

[ q

r
[

[ s

W

)LJXUDQU

78
  FDOFXOXO GHWHUPLQDQWXOXL PDWULFHL ;C; ';C; vQ VHQVXO F  SH P VXU  FH VH DSURSLH GH

]HUR DFHVWD LQGLF  R LQWHUFRUHODUH GLQ FH vQ FH PDL VWUkQV  'DF  ';C;   VH FRQVLGHU  F 

IHQRPHQXOGHPXOWLFROLQLDULWDWHHVWHSUH]HQW t
 FDOFXOXO P ULPLL FRHILFLHQWXOXL GH GHWHUPLQDUH 5  $FHDVW  YDORDUH HVWH FRPSDUDW  FX

P ULPHD DFHOXLDL FRHILFLHQW RE LQXW vQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH XQD GLQWUH YDULDELOHOH IDFWRULDOH D IRVW

RPLV GLQPRGHOQFD]XOvQFDUHYDORULOHFRHILFLHQ LORUVXQWDSURSLDWHFDP ULPHVHSRDWHFRQVLGHUD

F YDULDELODRPLV HVWHFROLQLDU FXFHOHODOWHYDULDELOHIDFWRULDOH$EVHQ DDFHVWHLYDULDELOHGLQPRGHO

DU IL GH GRULW vQWUXFkW DU FRQGXFH OD GLPLQXDUHD PXOWLFROLQLDULW LL I U  D DIHFWD VHPQLILFDWLY JUDGXO

GHGHWHUPLQDUHDIDFWRULORUDVXSUDYDULDELOHLHIHFW

 WHVWHOH VWDWLVWLFH 6WXGHQW W XWLOL]DW vQ YHGHUHD YHULILF ULL VHPQLILFD LHL SDUDPHWULORU

PRGHOXOXL L )LVKHU6QHGHFRU ) XWLOL]DW vQ YHGHUHD YHULILF ULL VHPQLILFD LHL PRGHOXOXL Q FD]XO vQ

FDUH WHVWXO ) VHPQDOHD]  VHPQLILFD LH LDU WHVWXO W  DSOLFDW DFHOXLDL PRGHO VHPQDOHD] 

QHVHPQLILFD LL vQ UkQGXO SDUDPHWULORU DFHVW OXFUX UHSUH]LQW  XQ LQGLFLX F  PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWHD HVWH

SUH]HQW 

(IHFWHOH PXOWLFROLQLDULW LL VXQW SURSRU LRQDOH FX LQWHQVLWDWHD SUH]HQ HL DFHVWHLD vQ UkQGXO

YDULDELOHORU H[SOLFDWLYH 9DORULOH HVWLPDWRULORU SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL VXQW DIHFWDWH DYkQG GUHSW

FRQVHFLQ  GHIRUPDUHD DFHVWRU YDORUL vQWUR DVHPHQHD P VXU  vQFkW GHYLQH QHLQWHOLJLELO  LQIOXHQ D

VHSDUDW  D YDULDELOHORU H[SOLFDWLYH DVXSUD YDULDELOHL HIHFW 0XOWLFROLQLDULWDWHD DIHFWHD]  GH

DVHPHQHDLJUDGXOGHGHWHUPLQDUHDIDFWRULORUDVXSUDYDULDELOHLHIHFWvQVHQVXOGLPLQX ULLVDOH

$WHQXDUHDPXOWLFROLQLDULW LLSRDWHILUHDOL]DW DVWIHO

 GDWRULW  IDSWXOXL F  VHULLOH GH GDWH SULYLQG YDULDELOD HIHFW L IDFWRULL V L GHWHUPLQDQ L VXQW

DOF WXLWHGHFHOHPDLPXOWHRULGLQWUXQQXP UUHGXVGHWHUPHQLQVHUHFRPDQG LQFOXGHUHD

GHWHUPHQLVXSOLPHQWDULQ!DVWIHOvQFkWHYHQWXDOHOHDQDORJLLGDWRUDWHKD]DUGXOXLV ILHSHFkW

SRVLELOHOLPLQDWH

 vQ VLWXD LD vQ FDUH GRX  YDULDELOH FDX]DOH VXQW LQWHQV FRUHODWH XQD GLQWUH HOH HVWH FROLQLDU 

FXFHDODOW VHSRDWHUHQXQ DODXQDGLQWUHHOHFRQVLGHUkQGXVHF YDULDELODRPLV HVWHH[SULPDW GH

FHDUH LQXW vQPRGHO

u
v
w
 GDF  GDWHOH VXQW SUH]HQWDWH VXE IRUP  GH VHULL FURQRORJLFH VH SRW FDOFXOD GLIHUHQ HOH GH

RUGLQXO   D  f
 \   \ fx v   VDXSRWILORJDULWPDWHYDORULOHOXL <  ; f e vQVFRSXODWHQX ULLFROLQLDULW LL

FDX]DWHGHSUH]HQ DWUHQGXOXLvQFDGUXOVHULLORUGHGDWH

 XWLOL]DUHD GH VHULL GH GDWH IRUPDWH vQ RSWLF  WUDQVYHUVDO  VHULL VLQFURQH SRDWH FRQVWLWXL R

PRGDOLWDWH GH GLPLQXDUH VDX FKLDU GH HOLPLQDUH D LQWHUGHSHQGHQ HL IDFWRULORU $FHDVW  VLWXD LH HVWH

YDODELO  vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH REVHUYDUHD VH UHIHU  OD XQHDQWLRQVWDWLVWLFGHvQWUHSULQGHULMXGH HIDPLOLL

HWF &D XUPDUH D IDSWXOXL F  GDWHOH VXQW FXOHVH SHQWUX DFHHDL SHULRDG  GH WLPS SH ED]D DFHOHDL

PHWRGRORJLL GDU vQ FRQGL LL GLIHULWH GH PDQLIHVWDUH D IDFWRULORU H[LVW  DQVH PDL PDUL FD LSRWH]D

SULYLQGLQGHSHQGHQ DIDFWRULORUV ILHUHJ VLW vQVHWXOGHGDWH

(OLPLQDUHD IHQRPHQXOXL GH PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWH SRDWH IL UHDOL]DW  FX DMXWRUXO XUP WRDUHORU

SURFHGHH

 0HWRGH DSULRULFH  VXQW XWLOL]DWH vQ YHGHUHD VHOHFW ULL L RUGRQ ULLLQWURGXFHULLvQPRGHOD

YDULDELOHORUH[SOLFDWLYH8QDGLQWUHDFHVWHPHWRGHHVWHPHWRGDUHJUHVLHLLWHUDWLYHFDUHFRQVW vQ

 FDOFXOXO PDWULFHL FRHILFLHQ LORU GH FRUHOD LH OLQLDU  FRUHVSXQ] WRUL YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH

$FHDVW  PDWULFH UH]XOW  vQ XUPD HOLPLQ ULL OLQLHL \ L FRORDQHL \ GLQ PDWULFHD FRHILFLHQ LORU GH

FRUHOD LHOLQLDU FRUHVSXQ] WRDUHPRGHOXOXLUHVSHFWLY

 U }~| z U }~| y  U}~| 

U | z}  U| z | y  U| z | 

5 } {| =

U| y } |y|z
U   U| y | 
 

    

U |} ||z
U U||y  

79
 3HED]DDFHVWHLPDWULFHVHIXQGDPHQWHD] PHWRGDUHJUHVLHLSDVFXSDV3ULPDRSHUD LHFRQVW 

vQGHSLVWDUHDIHQRPHQXOXLGHFROLQLDULWDWHGLQWUHYDULDELOHOHH[RJHQH'DF vQPDWULFHDFRHILFLHQ LORU

GHFRUHOD LHH[LVW GRX YDULDELOHH[SOLFDWLYHDOF URUFRHILFLHQWGHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU LQGLF RFRUHOD LH

SXWHUQLF  SR]LWLY  VDX QHJDWLY  VH UHFRPDQG  GH OD vQFHSXW UHQXQ DUHD OD XQD GLQWUH DFHVWH

YDULDELOH 6H YD UH LQH DFHD YDULDELO  SHQWUX FDUH H[LVW  SUH]XP LD F  QX HVWH DIHFWDW  GH HURUL

UHQXQ DUHDI FkQGXVHGLQSXQFWGHYHGHUHVWDWLVWLFLHFRQRPLF

$GRXDRSHUD LHFRQVW vQDSOLFDUHDPHWRGHLUHJUHVLHLSDVFXSDV$FHDVWDSRDWHILIRORVLW vQ

GRX PDQLHUHDVFHQGHQWLGHVFHQGHQW

0HWRGD UHJUHVLHL SDV FX SDV DVFHQGHQW  SRUQHWH GH OD DQDOL]D FRHILFLHQ LORU GH FRUHOD LH

Unm l &RQGL LDFDSULPDYDULDELO V ILHLQWURGXV vQPRGHOHVWHGDW GHUHOD LD

PD[ U
\[
0


 \

= D


+D
[
 
    
M

)LH U
\[
= PD[ U
\[
\

=D

+ D [
 
+X

     
M

6HFDOFXOHD] FRHILFLHQ LLGHFRUHOD LHSDU LDO  U XQGH M =  N 

/DSDVXOVHLQWURGXFHYDULDELOD[FDUHSUH]LQW FHDPDLSXWHUQLF FRUHOD LHFX X UHVSHFWLY

PD[ U
X

[

M

)LH [ YDULDELODQRX FHYDILLQWURGXV vQPRGHO

\ = D + D [ + D [ +X      

6HFDOFXOHD]  U  M =  N LVHLQWURGXFHvQPRGHOYDULDELODFHDPDLSXWHUQLFFRUHODW FX

X LVHFRQWLQX SURFHGHXO

7RDWHDFHVWHPRGHOHRE LQXWHSHSDUFXUVVHWHVWHD] FXDMXWRUXOWHVWHORUFXQRVFXWHWL)


< 5
 <  < 5

 XUP ULQGXVH L YHULILFDUHD FRQGL LHL 5
\ [ t
\ [ [ \ [ [  [   DGLF  DUH ORF R

FUHWHUHSURJUHVLY DFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHGHWHUPLQDUH5 

0HWRGDUHJUHVLHLSDVFXSDVGHVFHQGHQW SUHVXSXQHFRQVWUXLUHDPRGHOXOXL


\ =D

+D [
 
+D

[

+  + D
N
[
N
+X  5
\ [  [

(V ) (V ) (V ) (V )
   

D D D D
SHQWUX FDUH VH FDOFXOHD]  DEDWHULOH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH SDUDPHWULORU 9RU IL HOLPLQDWH GLQ PRGHO DFHOH

_ D _
YDULDELOHSHQWUXFDUHVHUHDOL]HD] FRQGL LD W
D @   
V
'XS  FH VH HOLPLQ  YDULDELOHOH SHQWUX FDUH VH YHULILF  FRQGL LD UHVSHFWLY  VH FRQVWUXLHWH

PRGHOXO QXPDL vQ IXQF LH GH YDULDELOHOH U PDVH FRQVLGHUDWH FD DYkQG R LQIOXHQ  VHPQLILFDWLY 

FRQIRUPSDVXOXL

)LH D @  VHHOLPLQ YDULDELOD[ 6HFRQVWUXLHWHPRGHOXO

\ =D

+ D [
 
+ D [
 
+  + D
N
[
N
+X

 5


\ [
[  [
 

6H FRPSDU  FHL GRL FRHILFLHQ L GH GHWHUPLQDUH L WUHEXLH V  UH]XOWH F  HL VXQW DSUR[LPDWLY

HJDOL(OLPLQDUHDYDULDELOHL[ QXGLPLQXHD] FXQLPLFJUDGXOGHSHUIRUPDQ DOPRGHOXOXL

 2 DOW  FDWHJRULH GH PHWRGH FDUH SRDWH IL IRORVLWH OD VHOHF LD YDULDELOHORU IDFWRULDOH VXQW

PHWRGHOH DSRVWHULRULFH FDUH FRQVWDX vQ FRQVWUXLUHD GH PRGHOH HFRQRPHWULFH FX WRDWH YDULDELOHOH

H[SOLFDWLYHLDFFHSWDUHDDFHVWRUDFDYDULDELOHH[RJHQHVHPQLILFDWLYHQXPDLGXS YHULILFDUHDWHVWHORU

VWDWLVWLFH FDUH YDOLGHD]  DFHDVW  LSRWH]  $FHVWH PHWRGH VH ED]HD]  SH GHILQLUHD L LQWHUSUHWDUHD

JUDGXOXL GH SHUIRUPDQ  DO PRGHOXOXL $VWIHO FRHILFLHQ LL GH SHUIRUPDQ  JOREDO  VH FDOFXOHD]  FX

80

9
DMXWRUXO UHOD LHL 5 =-   LDU FRHILFLHQ LL GH SHUIRUPDQ  SDU LDO  FX UHOD LD
9


9
5 =- 
9
QDFHVWVHQVVHFRQVWUXLHWHPRGHOXO

 
0  \ = \ +X X = \ - \  SHQWUX FDUH VH FDOFXOHD]  YDULD LD H[SOLFDW  GH
 W   W

YDULDELODUH]LGXDO  9 =9 = (\ - \ ) 

(\ )
 
0

 \
W
=E

+E [
 W
+X
W
<
W

=E


+E [
 W
9 =

-< 

M
( )


0
T
 \
W
T
=E

+  + E
T
[
TW
+X
TW
9


X
= \
T

W
-<

W
T
  

M
( )


0
N
 \
N
W
=E

+  + E
N
[
NW
+X
NW
9


X
= \
N
W
-<

W
N


 XQGHM TNN QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH

  W =  Q Q QXP UXOREVHUYD LLORU

3HED]DDFHVWXLPRGHOVHSRWGHILQLXUP WRDUHOHQR LXQL

D FRHILFLHQ LL GH SHUIRUPDQ JOREDO DLXQXLPRGHOIRUPDWGLQTNYDULDELOH

H[SOLFDWLYHvQUDSRUWFXPRGHOXOLQL LDO0 



9
X
5 =- =
 

9


9
5 = - 
9
M        

9
5 =- 
9

M



9
X

5 =- 
N  

9


E FRHILFLHQ LLGHSHUIRUPDQ
SDU LDO DLXQXLPRGHO0
 ID GH0 


9 -9 9
5 = - = -     
9 9
$FHDVW  UHOD LH SRDWH IL IRORVLW  vQ FD]XO UHJXOHL GH DFFHSWDUH D LQWURGXFHULL VDX H[FOXGHULL

YDULDELOHL[ 


9
X

0
T
 5

T
= -


9


81
 
9
X
0
T +
 5

T +
=- 
     
9


9DULDELOD[ HVWHVHPQLILFDWLY GDF  5 > 5  5
T +
> 5
T
 9 <9 

$FHDVW  UHJXO  DUH R GHILFLHQ  GHRDUHFH D IRVW FRQVWUXLW  SH ED]D UDSRUWXOXL GH FRUHOD LH 5

FDUHDIRVWFDOFXODWFXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL


(< W ) ( )
Q Q
 

- \ \ -<
W W
W =
5 =
W =

Q
=  -
Q
 

(\ ) (\ )
 
- \ - \
W W
W = W =

$FHVWD QX LQH VHDPD GH GRX  QHDMXQVXUL FDUH DSDU vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL PXOWLIDFWRULDO

UHVSHFWLY GH QXP UXO GH REVHUYD LL SH ED]D F URUD DX IRVW HVWLPD L SDUDPHWULL PRGHOXOXL L GH

QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUIDFWRULDOHDOHPRGHOXOXL

3HQWUX HOLPLQDUHD DFHVWRU YLFLL DOH UDSRUWXOXL GH FRUHOD LH FODVLF DFHVWD VH vQORFXLHWH FX

UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LHDMXVWDWFRUHFWDWDF UXLUHOD LHGHFDOFXOHVWHXUP WRDUHD

( ) 
Q -
5 = - - 5    
Q - N

2%6 1XP UXO REVHUYD LLORU WUHEXLH V  ILH PDL PDUH GHFkW QXP UXO SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL

Q N +  

'HDVHPHQHDVHREVHUY F vQFD]XOXQXLPRGHOXQLIDFWRULDON FHOHGRX UDSRUWXULGH

FRUHOD LHVXQWHJDOHQFD]XOvQFDUHN! 5
D
>5
\ [


2DOW SUREOHP FDUHVHULGLF HVWHDFHHDSULYLQGDOHJHUHDFHOXLPDLEXQPRGHOPXOWLIDFWRULDO

GLQJUXSXOPRGHOHORUSRVLELOHFRQVWUXLWHvQIXQF LHGHIDFWRULLH[SOLFDWLYL

5H]ROYDUHD DFHVWHL SUREOHPH SHUPLWH DWkW DOHJHUHD FHOXL PDL EXQ PRGHO FkW L HOLPLQDUHD

PXOWLFROLQLDULW LL

8QPRGHOPXOWLIDFWRULDOHVWHGHIRUPD

\
I[ [ [ X      

3H ED]D FHORU [  YDULDELOH IDFWRULDOH VH SRW FRQVWUXL XUP WRDUHOH PRGHOH FDUDFWHUL]DWH SULQ

( ) 

VXPDS WUDWHORUDEDWHULORU X VDXSULQUDSRUWXULOHGHFRUHOD LH 5


0  \ I[  X  SX   5 \ [      


 5
  
0 \ I[  [ X SX \ [      

 
M

0 \ I[  [ X SX   5 
    

 
M 
0 \ I[  [ X SX   5       

Q PRG ORJLF LQWURGXFHUHD XQHL YDULDELOH IDFWRULDOH vQWUXQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF HVWH

MXVWLILFDW GDF 
   

SX  !SX ! K!SX  ! K!SX       

-5    < 5    < K< 5    < K< 5        

3H ED]D FHORU GRX  UHOD LL DOHJHUHD FHOXL PDL EXQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VH SRDWH IDFH SH ED]D

XUP WRDUHORUUHVWULF LL


PLQ X  ( M =  N ) 
ILH        

PD[ 5
  
ILH          

XQGHN QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[SOLFDWLYHH[RJHQH

82
 $FHVWHGRX UHVWULF LLWUHEXLHFRPSOHWDWHGHXUP WRDUHOHFDOFXOH

Q FD]XO vQ FDUH GLIHUHQ HOH GLQWUH VXPHOH S WUDWHORU HURULORU VDX GLQWUH UDSRUWXULOH GH

FRUHOD LH DMXVWDWH FRUHFWDWH D GRX  PRGHOH FX XQ QXP U GLIHULW GH YDULDELOH H[RJHQH UHVSHFWLY 0  

L 0   T  N N ! T QX VXQW HYLGHQWH DFFHSWDUHD XQXLD GLQWUH PRGHOH VH SRDWH UHDOL]D FX DMXWRUXO

WHVWXOXL)LVKHU6QHGHFRUFDUHFRQVW
  vQYHULILFDUHDLQHJDOLW
  LL

9 # & -9 # % 9 " & -9 " %

 Q - N -  Q - N -
GDF  ) $ = = ) ' !  !  
9 N -T 9 N -T
" % " %

UH]XOW F vQWUHFHOHGRX PRGHOHH[LVW GLIHUHQ HVHPQLILFDWLYHLDUFHOPDLEXQPRGHOYDILDOHVvQ

FRQIRUPLWDWHFXUHVWULF LLOHPHQ LRQDWHDQWHULRU

 GDF  ) < ) ) (  DWXQFL GLIHUHQ HOH GLQWUH FHOH GRX  PRGHOH QX VXQW VHPQLILFDWLYH
F a Y Y

UH]XOW F VHDOHJHPRGHOXOFXQXP UXOGHYDULDELOHH[SOLFDWLYHFHOPDLPLF

QYHGHUHDDSOLF ULLDFHVWXLWHVWVHGHILQHVFXUP WRDUHOHP ULPL

0 +
/0
 9- . =
* / X ,  UHSUH]LQW VXPDS WUDWHORUHURULORUFRUHVSXQ] WRDUHPRGHOXOXL0 1 
,
8 3 8 

 95 6 =
2 7 X8 4 UHSUH]LQW VXPDS WUDWHORUHURULORUFRUHVSXQ] WRDUHPRGHOXOXL0 9 
4

 W =  Q Q QXP UXOREVHUYD LLORU

M TNN QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH

Y : NTY; QNY : LY; QXP UXOJUDGHORUGHOLEHUWDWH

Q FD]XO vQ FDUH PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF VH XWLOL]HD]  vQ VSHFLDO OD SURJQR]D IHQRPHQHORU

HFRQRPLFHHVWHQHFHVDU YHULILFDUHDVWDELOLW LLvQWLPSDOHJLW LLGHHYROX LHDIHQRPHQXOXLDQDOL]DW

vQ IXQF LH GH HYROX LD IDFWRULORU V L $FHVW OXFUX VH SRDWH UHDOL]D FX DMXWRUXO WHVWXOXL &KRZ FDUH VH

DSOLF DVWIHO

ILHPRGHOXOXQLIDFWRULDOLQL LDO

Q
 
\ <>=  DE[ <>= X <>=  W =  Q 9
X ? = X
W
   

W = 

SHFDUHvOvPS U LPvQGRX PRGHOH

Q A
 
\ :>=  D : E : [ = X :>=  W =  Q @ 9
X A = X
W
   

W =

Q
 
\;B=  D; E; [ = X;B=  W = Q

+ Q 9
X D =
X W
   

W = Q C +

Q Q F Q
     
X W
= X
W
+ X W
9
X
=9
X F +9
X E    

W = W = W = Q F +

Q Q : Q ; Q QXP UXOGHREVHUYD LL

7HVWDUHDLSRWH]HLGHVWDELOLWDWHFRQVW vQDOHJHUHDXQHLDGLQXUP WRDUHOHLSRWH]H

H H
+G   'DF  9 @9 UH]XOW  F  OHJLWDWHD GH HYROX LH D IHQRPHQXOXL HVWH VWDELO  vQ WLPS 
J I J

LDUPRGHOXOSRDWHILXWLOL]DWvQYHGHUHDHIHFWX ULLSURJQR]HL
H H
+ K 'DF 9 9 UH]XOW F OHJLWDWHDGHHYROX LHDIHQRPHQXOXLQXHVWHVWDELO vQWLPS
J I J

LDUPRGHOXOQXYDSXWHDILXWLOL]DWvQYHGHUHDHIHFWX ULLSURJQR]HL

$SOLFDUHDWHVWXOXL)LVKHU6QHGHFRUFRQVW vQ
O O
-9
Q -  (N + )
9 R N R
 GDF  ) S = O ) T Q P M QP L    
R N +
9

83
VH DOHJH LSRWH]D +G  vQ FD] FRQWUDU VH DOHJH LSRWH]D + K  QXP UXO JUDGHORUGHOLEHUWDWHHVWHY : N

Y; QNN QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH

6LPXODUHLSURJQR] 

'DF  vQ XUPD HWDSHL GH YHULILFDUH D VHPQLILFD LHL PRGHOXOXL DX IRVW VDWLVI FXWH FRQGL LLOH

FHUXWHGHWHVWHOHLLSRWH]HOHSUH]HQWDWHPDLVXVDWXQFLVHSRDWHDILUPDIDSWXOF PRGHOXOHVWHFRUHFW

VSHFLILFDW LGHQWLILFDW L HVWLPDW L FD DWDUH SRDWH IL XWLOL]DW OD SURJQR]D L VLPXODUHD IHQRPHQXOXL

DQDOL]DW

Q FD]XO XQXL PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO GDF  VH FXQRVF YDORULOH YDULDELOHORU IDFWRULDOH ;U  SHQWUX

PRPHQWXO QY SURJQR]D YDULDELOHL HQGRJHQH VH UHDOL]HD]  SH ED]D XQXL LQWHUYDO GH vQFUHGHUH

GHRDUHFH < HVWH R YDULDELO  DOHDWRDUH QRUPDO  GH PHGLH <

X V L GH DEDWHUH PHGLH S WUDWLF 
W

Y\
V
Z YH]LLSRWH]HOH+ K L+] DOH0&003
<[

[ ] =  - a  
d d

-W V \ < i +W V
3< i ` h ^ ch b a_ i ` h ` h ^ ch b a_
g f e g f e

XQGH

\jlknm YDORDUHDUHDO DYDULDELOHL\vQPRPHQWXOGHSURJQR]  Q + Y 

o

-< s prq = HVWLPD LDSXQFWXDO DYDORULLGHSURJQR] SHQWUXYDULDELOD\FDUHVHFDOFXOHD] FX

DMXWRUXOUHOD LHL
y


<w
x v = E | + E { [w
x v {
u + E z [w
x v z
u + K + E t [w
x v t
u 

6XEIRUP PDWULFHDO UHOD LDGHPDLVXVGHYLQH

~
= ; % = ; ( ; ; ) (; )
} <
< } } 
   
XQGH

[ Q +Y  

; = [  YHFWRUXO FRORDQ  D YDORULORU GH SURJQR]  DOH YDULDELOHORU [  SHQWUX
Y Q +Y  

M

[
Q +Y  N

PRPHQWXO Q + Y 

W m   YDULDELOD DOHDWRDUH 6WXGHQW VDX YDULDELOD QRUPDO  ]  GDF  Q! SUHOXDW  GLQ WDEHOXO

GLVWULEX LHLUHVSHFWLYHvQIXQF LHGHSUDJXOGHVHPQLILFD LHaLGHQXP UXOJUDGHORUGHOLEHUWDWHY 

QN

[ ( ) ]   UHSUH]LQW

V = V = V + ; ; ; ;  DEDWHUHD GH SURJQR] 

DYDULDELOHLHQGRJHQH<FDUHH[SULP HURDUHDGHSUHYL]LXQH

(URDUHD GH SUHYL]LXQH  V  HVWH FX DWkW PDL PLF  FX FkW QXP UXO GH REVHUYD LL YD IL PDL

PDUHFXFkWYDORULOHYDULDELOHORUvQPRPHQWXOGHSURJQR] QYYRUILPDLDSURSLDWHGHPHGLDORU

FXFkWGLVSHUVLLOHYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH; YRUILPDLPDULLFXFkWGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHV 

HVWHPDLPLF 
'LVSHUVLD YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH V  YD IL FX DWkW PDL PLF  FX FkW PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF YD

H[SOLFD R SDUWH WRW PDL PDUH GLQ YDULD LD YDULDELOHL SURJQR]DWH < VDX FX FkW UDSRUWXO GH FRUHOD LH

5 YDDYHDRYDORDUHPDLDSURSLDW GH

([HPSOXGHUH]ROYDUHDXQXLPRGHOOLQLDUPXOWLIDFWRULDO
8Q vQWUHSULQ] WRU FXPS U  XQ PDJD]LQ DYkQG R VXSUDID  GH  P  vQWUXQ FDUWLHU vQ FDUH

ORFXLHVF vQ MXU GH  GH IDPLOLL 2 VRFLHWDWH GH FRQVXOWDQ  GH PDQDJHPHQW FRPHUFLDO vO

84
LQIRUPHD]  F  FLIUD GH DIDFHUL D PDJD]LQHORU FX SURILOXO UHVSHFWLY GHSLQGH OLQLDU GH VXSUDID D

FRPHUFLDO  D PDJD]LQXOXL L GH QXP UXO IDPLOLLORU GLQ FDUWLHUXO UHVSHFWLY FDUH GH UHJXO  FXPS U 

GHODPDJD]LQXOFHOPDLDSURSLDWQDFHVWVHQVvLSXQHODGLVSR]L LHLQIRUPD LLOHUHIHULWRDUHODDFHWL

LQGLFDWRULvQUHJLVWUDWHODPDJD]LQHDYkQGDFHODLSURILO

 7DEHOXO

1XP UGHIDPLOLLVXWH             

6XSUDID DFRPHUFLDO ]HFLP              

&LIUDGHDIDFHULPLOOHL             

6HFHUH

 D 3H ED]D GDWHORU SUREOHPHL LQkQG FRQW GH VHPQLILFD LD HFRQRPLF  D IHQRPHQHORU

REVHUYDWH V  VH FRQVWUXLDVF  PRGHOHOH HFRQRPHWULFHFXDMXWRUXOF URUDSRDWHILVWXGLDW GHSHQGHQ D

GLQWUHIHQRPHQHOHUHVSHFWLYH

 E6 VHHVWLPH]HSDUDPHWULLPRGHOHORUFRQVWUXLWHODSXQFWXOD

 F 'LQ FHOH WUHL PRGHOH XWLOL]DWH SHQWUX GHVFULHUHD GHSHQGHQ HL FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL GH FHL GRL

IDFWRULV VHDOHDJ FHOPDLEXQPRGHO

 G 6  VH HVWLPH]H FLIUD GH DIDFHUL SH FDUH R SRDWH RE LQH vQWUHSULQ] WRUXO GDF  YD FXPS UD

PDJD]LQXOUHVSHFWLY

 H WLLQG F  SHQWUX IXQF LRQDUHD PDJD]LQXOXL FKHOWXLHOLOH OXQDUH VXQW vQ MXU GH  PLOOHL

HVWLPD LFDUHHVWHULVFXOFDvQWUHSULQ] WRUXOV RE LQ XQSURILWPDLPLFVDXHJDOFX

 I 6  VH DUDWH L DOWH PRGDOLW L GH UH]ROYDUH D PRGHOXOXL PXOWLIDFWRULDO  SH ED]D PDWULFHL

FRHILFLHQ LORUGHFRUHOD LHLDPDWULFHLYDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ HORU

 5H]ROYDUH

 D 'HVFULHUHD HFRQRPHWULF  D OHJ WXULL GLQWUH FHOH WUHL YDULDELOH \  FLIUD GH DIDFHUL [  

QXP UXOGHIDPLOLLL [ VXSUDID DFRPHUFLDO VHSRDWHIDFHFXDMXWRUXODWUHLPRGHOH

  0RGHOXO XQLIDFWRULDO \ = I ([ ) + X  H[SOLF  YDULD LD FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL SH VHDPD

QXP UXOXLGHIDPLOLL

  0RGHOXO XQLIDFWRULDO \ = I ([ ) + X  H[SOLF  YDULD LD FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL SH VHDPD

VXSUDIH HLFRPHUFLDOH

  0RGHOXO PXOWLIDFWRULDO \ = I ( [

 [ ) + X  H[SOLF  YDULD LD FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL SH VHDPD

DPELORUIDFWRUL

 ,GHQWLILFDUHD IXQF LLORU GH UHJUHVLH D SULPHORU GRX  PRGHOH VH UHDOL]HD]  FX DMXWRUXO

UHSUH]HQW ULLJUDILFHDYDULDELOHL\vQIXQF LHGHFHOHODOWHGRX YDULDELOHIDFWRULDOH [ UHVSHFWLY [ 

B n n n


)LJXUD

85


B n


)LJXUD

'HRDUHFH JUDILFHOH GH PDL VXV DUDW  F  OHJ WXUD GLQWUH \ L [  UHVSHFWLY \ L [  SRDWH IL

DSUR[LPDW FXRGUHDSW PRGHOHOHGHPDLVXVGHYLQ

   \ = D + E
[ + X 

   \ = D + E
[ + X 

   \ = D + E [ + F [ + X 

 0RGHOXO  HVWH XQ PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO OLQLDU GHRDUHFH \ ILLQG FRUHODW OLQLDU FX [ 

UHVSHFWLYFX [ VHGHGXFHXRUF YDILFRUHODWOLQLDULvQUDSRUWFXDPELLIDFWRUL

 E(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUFHORUWUHLPRGHOH

 0RGHOHFRQRPHWULFSULYLQGGHSHQGHQ DGLQWUHFLIUDGHDIDFHULLQXP UXOGHIDPLOLL

 (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL \ = D + E

[ + X  VH YD IDFH SH FX DMXWRUXO SDFKHWXOXL

GHSURJUDPH(;&(/ED]DXUP WRDUHORUVHULLVWDWLVWLFHSUH]HQWDWHvQ7DEHOXO

7DEHOXO

1U  \  = \ - <  
= 
(X )
[ < X X X 
- X


FUW
+  [

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

7RWDO       

86
 6800$5<287387

5HJUHVVLRQ6WDWLVWLFV 6HPQLILQG

0XOWLSOH5  = 5 

56TXDUH  = 5 

$GMXVWHG 5  = 5 
6TXDUH

6WDQGDUG(UURU  = V 

2EVHUYDWLRQV  = Q 

$129$

 GI  66  06  ) 

5HJUHVVLRQ  = N    
( < - \) = 
V )
= 
 

5HVLGXDO     
(\ )
=Q-N - = - <  = V



7RWDO      
=Q- = (\ - \ ) 


9DULDEOH &RHIILFLHQWV  6WDQGDUG(UURU  W6WDW 

WHUPHQOLEHU 
D  V   W 

[ 
E
 V 
  W    

 (VWLPDWRULLPRGHOXOXLVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHUL LGH]HURGDF 

 $ 
 
    !     
E
 W    =
V
$
D

  W
( )
L W    =
V   W
( )


 'HRDUHFH
"
 W , =

D

*+ ' =
 
=   < W $ ) $&% ( "#" =    SDUDPHWUXO D QXHVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULW $ -
V 

GH]HUR
.
/ 3 /&0 2 .#.

E
 W 6 =
V 45 1 =
 

 
=   > W =   

 SDUDPHWUXO E  HVWH VHPQLILFDWLY GLIHULW GH 7
]HUR

7HVWXO)LVKHU6QHGHFRULQGLF IDSWXOF UH]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYHFXXQSUDJGH

VHPQLILFD LHGH ) = =   > ) 9 < 9&: ; 8 ; 8#8 =   

 5DSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LHHVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULWGH]HURGDF VHYHULILF UHOD LD

B
   )D = (Q - )
5
B E @ C ?A@ C >
> ) 
- 5

   ) F = 
 

 - 
=  

  Q IXQF LH GH XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a =   L GH QXP UXO JUDGHORU GH OLEHUWDWH

Y G = N =  L Y H = Q - N -  =  -  =  VHSUHLDYDORDUHDWHRUHWLF  ) J M J&K L I L I#I =   

 6H FRQVWDW  F  ) =   > ) J M J&K L I L I#I =    GHFL SHQWUX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH GH 

YDORDUHDUDSRUWXOXLGHFRUHOD LHHVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULW GH]HUR

 Q YHGHUHD YHULILF ULL LSRWH]HL GH LQGHSHQGHQ  D HURULORU VH FDOFXOHD]  YDORDUHD YDULDELOHL

'XUELQ:DWVRQ

87
  
   G = =   


 3HQWUX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a =   GLQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ VH SUHLDX

YDORULOHSHQWUXFD]XO Q =  N =  QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[SOLFDWLYH G N =  L G O =  

 &XP  - G Q =  G =   - G P =   UH]XOW  LQGHFL]LH WLQ]kQG VSUH DXWRFRUHODUH

QHJDWLY 

 3HED]DGDWHORUGHPDLVXVPRGHOXOGHYLQH

 < SR =  +  [ SR   5 =  

   G =  

      V VU T =  

 0RGHOHFRQRPHWULFSULYLQGGHSHQGHQ DGLQWUHFLIUDGHDIDFHULLVXSUDID DFRPHUFLDO 

 (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL \ W = D X XYX W

+ E [ + X XW  VH YD IDFH SH ED]D XUP WRDUHL VHULL

VWDWLVWLFHSUH]HQWDWHvQ7DEHOXO

 7DEHOXO

c fe d c hh g


1U [ [Z  \  \ < ] =  X _R R R

= \ -<  X [a\ b ` 
(X cf -X )  X 
FUW
+  [ ^] 

       

Y       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

7RWDO       

 QXUPDIRORVLULLSURJUDPXOXL(;&(/VDXRE LQXWXUP WRDUHOHUH]XOWDWH

6800$5<287387

5HJUHVVLRQ6WDWLVWLFV 6HPQLILQG

0XOWLSOH5  = 5 
i
56TXDUH  = 5
k 

$GMXVWHG 5  = 5 j 
6TXDUH

6WDQGDUG(UURU  =V m n lo 

2EVHUYDWLRQV  = Q 

88
 $129$

 GI  66 
q 06 
v ) 

w
5HJUHVVLRQ  = N  
= (< p - \) 
 = V rtu s   )


y 
z
5HVLGXDO  =Q-N - 
= (\ x - < x )  
=V | } {~ 
 



7RWDO  =Q- 
= (\ - \ ) 
   



9DULDEOH &RHIILFLHQWV  6WDQGDUG(UURU  W6WDW 

WHUPHQOLEHU 
D  V   W 

[ 
E
 V   W 

 'HRDUHFH

W =
D

V =



=   > W =   

& #

E

W =
V =
 


=  > W =   

UH]XOW  F  DPELL HVWLPDWRUL D $ $

 L E  VXQW VHPQLILFDWLY GLIHUL L GH ]HUR FX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH

a =  

7HVWXO)LVKHU6QHGHFRULQGLF IDSWXOF UH]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYHFXXQSUDJGH

VHPQLILFD LHGH ) =  > ) & # =   

6HYHULILF GHDVHPHQHDVHPQLILFD LDUDSRUWXOXLGHFRUHOD LH

) = (Q - )
5
= 
 

 -  
=  
- 5

 6H FRQVWDW  F  ) =  > ) & # =    GHFL SHQWUX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH GH 

YDORDUHDUDSRUWXOXLGHFRUHOD LHHVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULW GH]HUR

 Q YHGHUHD YHULILF ULL LSRWH]HL GH LQGHSHQGHQ  D HURULORU VH FDOFXOHD]  YDORDUHD YDULDELOHL

'XUELQ:DWVRQ

 
G = =   
 

 3HQWUX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a =   GLQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ VH SUHLDX

YDORULOHSHQWUXFD]XO Q =   N =  QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[SOLFDWLYH G =  L G =  

G =   > G = 
 &XP

G =   <  - G = 
UH]XOW F HURULOHVXQWLQGHSHQGHQWH

 3HED]DGDWHORUGHPDLVXVPRGHOXOGHYLQH

 < =  + [   5 =  

   G =  

      V =  

  0RGHO HFRQRPHWULF PXOWLIDFWRULDO SULYLQG GHSHQGHQ D FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL GH VXSUDID D

FRPHUFLDO LGHQXP UXOGHIDPLOLL

 (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO \ = D +E [ + F [ +X  QHFHVLW 

HIHFWXDUHDXUP WRDUHORUFDOFXOH

89
 RE LQHUHDVLVWHPXOXLGHHFXD LLQRUPDOHSULQDSOLFDUHD0&003FDUHFRQVW vQ

) D ( )
 E  F = PLQ \ (
-D
-E [ - F [ ) 

 0LQLPXO DFHVWHL IXQF LL HVWH GDW GH FDOFXOXO GHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL

PRGHOXOXL

   ) (D

)=   \ (
-D

-E [
- F [
) (- ) = 

   ) E

( ) =   \
(
-D
-E [ - F [ ) (- [ )= 

   ) (F )=   \ (
-D
-E [ - F [ ) (- [ )= 

 'XS HIHFWXDUHDFDOFXOHORUUH]XOW XUP WRUXOVLVWHPGHHFXD LL

QD

+E [ + F
[ = \



   [ +E [ + F [ = [ 

D [ \

D [


+E [ [ + F [ = [ \

 9DORULOH HVWLPDWRULORU UH]XOW  vQ XUPD UH]ROY ULL VLVWHPXOXL GH HFXD LL DOH F UXL QHFXQRVFXWH

VXQW FHL WUHL SDUDPHWULL D  E  F  LDU YDORULOH WHUPHQLORU VLVWHPXOXL GH HFXD LL VH RE LQ SH ED]D

WDEHOXOXLFRORDQHOH

 7DEHOXO

         =  

<

1U [  [  \  [ \  [
\  [ [ 
[  [ 
+ [ 
X = \ -< 

FUW
+  [
          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

7RWDO          

 (VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWUXOXL D $ 

\ [
[   

[
\
[ [ [   

[
\
[ [ [   
= =
D
Q
[ [   


[


[ [ [   

[

[ [ [   

  
D =  

90

 QPRGDQDORJVHRE LQYDORULOHFHORUODO LGRLSDUDPHWULL E

=   L F =   

 2 FDOH PDL UDSLG  GH HVWLPDUH D SDUDPHWULORU VH UHDOL]HD]  XWLOL]kQG FDOFXOXO PDWULFHDO

VLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLGHPDLVXVGHYHQLQG

(; ; ) % = (; < ) 
$
 
 QPXO LQGODVWkQJDH[SUHVLDFX ( ; ; ) RE LQHP

( ; ; ) ( ; ; )% ( ; ; ) ( ; < ) 
   

   =

5H]XOW F 

D
$
 
(; ; ) (; < ) 
$
% =
$
E =


F
$
XQGHPDWULFLOHVXQWGHIRUPD

   
X

    X


  

    M

    M

    M

  ; =     < =   8 = M 

    M

    M


    M


    M


    M




  

X

  6HFDOFXOHD] PDWULFLOH

  

   ( ; ; ) =    

  



   ( ; < ) =  



   ; ; =  

 - -

   (; ; ) =

-  -



- - 

91
  -  - 
  
   ( ; ; ) = -   -  


-  -  

  -   -  


(; )

  
; = -     -   

-   -    

&DOFXOkQGSURGXVXO

D 
 
  

% = ( ; ; ) ( ; < )
= E =   



F  

 9DORULOHWHRUHWLFHDOHFLIUHLGHDIDFHULUH]XOW GHFLGLQUHOD LD

   < =  +  [  +  [  

 &DOFXOXO FHORUODO L LQGLFDWRUL DL PRGHOXOXL PXOWLIDFWRULDO VH YD IDFH XWLOL]kQG XUP WRDUHOH

UHOD LL

 

 X
  !
  =   (\ 
-<  ) =   HVWLPD LD GLVSHUVLHL   s # "  D YDULDELOHL

V
Q - N - Q - N -

UH]LGXDOHX$
, - - - ,-
  = V' + F HVWLPD LLOHGLVSHUVLLORUSDUDPHWULORU D /0  F / XQGH
 E /0
( )
V * + ) + ( +
. . %&
3 4
 F12 = HOHPHQWXOVLWXDWSHGLDJRQDODSULQFLSDO DPDWULFHLLQYHUVH ( ; ; ) 

56
V; 8

56
5 6 6 6 5
= V< 8 : 
 
( 7 7
V ; 8 : 8 9 8
)
 = V 8
56

 V 9 8


= =

(<> - \) ( \> - <> )

  5 = = = - = UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LH

( \> - \) ( \> - \)

A D

(XE B - X E B C )
B ? D @
  G = A   YDORDUHD YDULDELOHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ FDOFXODW  vQ YHGHUHD
D

X B
E
B ? C

WHVW ULLLSRWH]HLGHLQGHSHQGHQ DHURULORU

 9HULILFDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL DFHVWHLD VH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO WDEHOHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ GLQ FDUH VH

H[WUDJ YDORULOH G F =   L G G =   vQ IXQF LH GH XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a =   GH QXP UXO

YDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH N =  LGHQXP UXOREVHUYD LLORU Q =   (Q =  ) 

 5H]ROYDUHD PRGHOXOXL VD UHDOL]DW FX DMXWRUXO SURJUDPXOXL (;&(/ FRQGXFkQG OD DILDUHD

XUP WRDUHORUUH]XOWDWH

6800$5<287387

5HJUHVVLRQ6WDWLVWLFV 6HPQLILQG

0XOWLSOH5  = 5 
H
56TXDUH  = 5 
H
$GMXVWHG 5  = 5I 
6TXDUH

6WDQGDUG(UURU  = VJ K 

2EVHUYDWLRQV  = Q 

92


$129$

 GI  66  06  ) 

L R

= (\
M -\ ) 
5HJUHVVLRQ  = N    = VNPQ O   )S

T
=Q-N -
= (\ U - \ ) 
5HVLGXDO     
= VX Y 
U VW

Z
7RWDO      
= (\ [ )
=Q-
-\ 

9DULDEOH &RHIILFLHQWV  6WDQGDUG(UURU  W6WDW 

WHUPHQOLEHU  \ 
D  V^_ ]   W c ab ` 

[ dfe  g  Vij h   Wn lm k 

E 

[ope  \ 
F  V rs q   W v tu h 

9DULDEOH 0HDQYDOXH  6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ 

IDPLOLL  [w   s xfy 

VXSUFRP  [ z   s {}| 

&$  \  s ~ 

 

QXUPDWHVW ULLVHPQLILFD LHLSDUDPHWULORUVDFRQVWDWDWF 

W =   < W  =   UH]XOW F SDUDPHWUXO D QXHVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULWGH]HUR $

 W =  > W  =  UH]XOW F SDUDPHWUXO E HVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULWGH]HUR
$

 W =  > W =  UH]XOW F SDUDPHWUXO F HVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULWGH]HUR $

 &RPSDUkQG YDORDUHD FDOFXODW  D YDULDELOHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ G =   FX FHOH GRX  YDORUL

WDEHODWH VH REVHUY  F  G =   > G =   L G =   <  - G =    GHFL HURULOH VXQW

LQGHSHQGHQWH

 'HRDUHFH ) =  > )  =   UH]XOW  F  YDORDUHD UDSRUWXOXL GH FRUHOD LH HVWH

VHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULW GH]HURFXXQSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LHGH

 8WLOL]kQGHFXD LDDQDOL]HLYDULD LHL

   (\ - \) = (\ - < ) + ( < - \) 


(< - \)
UH]XOW  F  PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF H[SOLF      GLQ YDULD LD WRWDO  D FLIUHL GH

( \ - \)

DIDFHUL

 QFRQFOX]LHSXWHPDILUPDF PRGHOXOHVWHFRUHFWVSHFLILFDWDGLF YDULDELOHOH [ L [ VXQW

IDFWRULVHPQLILFDWLYLDLFLIUHLGHDIDFHULGHRDUHFHHVWLPDWRULLORUVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHUL LGH]HURL

FRUHFWLGHQWLILFD LGHRDUHFHPRGHOXOH[SOLF FHDPDLPDUHSDUWHGLQYDULD LDFLIUHLGHDIDFHUL

E
$ $
F
 'H DVHPHQHD UHOD LLOH > W
 > W
 LQGLF  L IDSWXO F  FHOH GRX  YDULDELOH [ 
V V

L [  QX VXQW FRUHODWH OLQLDU 'DF  DFHVWHD DU IL IRVW FRUHODWH OLQLDU SXWHUQLF DWXQFL XQXO GLQWUH

HVWLPDWRUL DU IL IRVW QHVHPQLILFDWLY FHHD FH vQVHDPQ  F  XQD GLQWUH FHOH GRX  YDULDELOH WUHEXLH

HOLPLQDW GLQPRGHO

93
 3ULQ XWLOL]DUHD XQXL PRGHO OLQLDU PXOWLIDFWRULDO FHL GRL HVWLPDWRUL E  L F  UHSUH]LQW 
$ $
\ \
FRHILFLHQ LL GH UHJUHVLH FRHILFLHQ LL PDUJLQDOL VDX   FHHD FH vQVHDPQ  F  OD R PRGLILFDUH
[ [

GH  D QXP UXOXL GH IDPLOLL FLIUD GH DIDFHUL D PDJD]LQXOXL YD VXIHUL R PRGLILFDUH GH 

PLO OHL LDU GDF  VXSUDID D FRPHUFLDO  VH YD PRGLILFD FX P  FLIUD GH DIDFHUL YD VXSRUWD R

PRGLILFDUHGHPLOOHL

 &DDWDUHPRGHOXOFDUHGHVFULHOHJ WXUDGLQWUHIHQRPHQHOHDQDOL]DWHHVWH

 < =   +  [ +   [  5 =  

   G =  

       V =  

 F $OHJHUHD FHOXL PDL EXQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF GLQ FHOH WUHL PRGHOH DQDOL]DWH VH YD IDFH SH

ED]DWDEHOXOXLGHPDLMRVvQUDSRUWFXPRGHOXOLQL LDO 0 

 7DEHOXO

6LPEROXO  9DULD LD &RHILFLHQ LLGH &RHILFLHQ LL

PRGHOXOXL 6WUXFWXUDPRGHOXOXL QHH[SOLFDW GH SHUIRUPDQ  GHSHUIRUPDQ 

(O )

0 =   PRGHO 9 SDU LDO 
= - 

5
9
9
5 = - 
9

0  9 = 9 9 

= \ + X  5 =-  
(O = )
\
= ( \ - \)  9

=   = 

(\ )

0 \ = D + E [ + X =   
9 = - < 5 = 5
 


(O = ) < =   +   [
=   
= - 



= 


(\   )
0 \ = D + E [ + X =   
5 = 5
 
9 = -<

(O = )

< =  +   [
=   
= - 
 


= 

       

    

(\   )
0 \ = D + E [ + F [ + X
  
5 = 9

 9 = - <
 5 = - =
(O = ) < =   + [ +   [
=   
9  

 = - 

=  
 

=  5    = -
9  =
9  

=  

 1RW  M =      T      N  N = QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH

  W =  Q  Q = QXP UXOREVHUYD LLORU

  O =  P P = QXP UXOPRGHOHORUFRQVWUXLWH P =  

 QFD]XOPRGHOHORUFXDFHODLQXP UGHYDULDELOHH[RJHQHFHOPDLEXQHVWHGDWGHUHVWULF LD

  

PD[ 5   3H ED]D DFHVWXL FULWHULX VH REVHUY  F  5  =  > 5  =   UHVSHFWLY PRGHOXO

94
0 !  H[SOLF  PDL ELQH YDULD LD FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL \ vQ IXQF LH GH VXSUDID D FRPHUFLDO   [ "  vQ

FRPSDUD LHFXPRGHOXO 0 # FDUHXWLOL]HD] FDYDULDELO H[RJHQ QXP UXOGHIDPLOLL [  $

 QFD]XOvQFDUHVHFRPSDU GRX PRGHOHDOF URUQXP UGHYDULDELOHH[RJHQHHVWHGLIHULWGH

H[HPSOX PRGHOXO 0  FX 0 %  DOHJHUHD FHOXL PDL EXQ PRGHO VH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO WHVWXOXL )LVKHU

6QHGHFRU

 8WLOL]DUHDDFHVWXLWHVWvQDFHVWFD]FRQVW vQ

 FDOFXODUHDYDORULLHPSLULFHDYDULDELOHL ) 
, , &,
, -, )* -, ,
)+ ,
9 (* -9 (+ 9 )* 9 -9 -9 +9 9 )*
  ) ' =  =  
N - T Q - N - N - T Q - N -
2 2 2
9 /0 -9 /1 9 /1
  ) . =  
N - T Q - N -
7 7 7
9 45 -9 46 9 46
  ) 3 =  
 -  -  - 

  -    

  ) 8 =  =   
 - 

  SUHOXDUHD GLQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL )LVKHU6QHGHFRUDYDORULLWHRUHWLFHDYDULDELOHL)vQIXQF LH

GHXQSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LH a LGHQXP UXOJUDGHORUGHOLEHUWDWH Y 9 = N - T  Y : = Q - N -  UHVSHFWLY

SHQWUX a =   ) < A <?> @ ; @ ;=< =   

 'HRDUHFH ) I =  > ) C H CGF EBE BDC =   SULQ LQWURGXFHUHD YDULDELOHL B
[  vQ PRGHOXO 0 

FUHWH JUDGXO GH SHUIRUPDQ  DO DFHVWXL PRGHO vQ UDSRUW FX PRGHOXO 0  vQ DFHODL WLPS LQIOXHQ D

DFHVWHLYDULDELOHDVXSUDYDULDELOHL\HVWHVHPQLILFDWLY 

 &DDWDUHPRGHOXOFDUHH[SOLF FHOPDLELQHYDULD LDFLIUHLGHDIDFHULHVWHPRGHOXO 0 

 J
< =  +   [ LJ +   [ KJ  5 =  

   G =  

       V ON M =  

 G 'HRDUHFH VD FRQVWDWDW F  PRGHOXO 0  H[SOLF  FHO PDL ELQH YDULD LD FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL

DFHVWD YD IL XWLOL]DW vQ YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL YDORULORU SUREDELOH DOH FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL SHQWUX

vQWUHSULQ] WRUXO UHVSHFWLY Q DFHVW FD] GDF  [ C =  [ B =   [ P =   vQ PHGLH FLIUD GH DIDFHUL HVWH

HJDO FX
V
   < QSU R = D [ $X QTU R W Y + E [
$X QTU R W Z $X
+ F [ QTU R W [ 

 XQGH
_
  < \T^ ] = HVWLPD LDSXQFWXDO DYDORULLGHSURJQR] SHQWUXYDULDELOD\

  \ `Tb a = YDORDUHDUHDO DYDULDELOHL\vQPRPHQWXOGHSURJQR]  Q + Y 

 6XEIRUP PDWULFHDO UHOD LDDQWHULRDU GHYLQH

f gh
   < cTe d d
= ; % = ; ( ; ; )
$ d ; < 

 XQGH



  ; m = [ n i m kl  UHSUH]LQW  PDWULFHD FRORDQ  D YDORULORU GH SURJQR]  DOH YDULDELOHORU


[ n i m kj

o
[  M =  SHQWUXPRPHQWXO Q + Y 
p
   < t qsr =   +    +   =   PLOOHL

95
 Q YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL LQWHUYDOXOXL GH vQFUHGHUH SHQWUX DFHDVW  YDORDUH SUREDELO  HVWH QHFHVDU 

FDOFXODUHDGLVSHUVLHLDFHVWHLYDORULFXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL
~ ~ }
   V u xz| { y = V v [ + ; ( ; ; ) w ; w] 

  -   -   

V
=   + (

 ) -     -    = 


-   -     

V = 

 ,QWHUYDOXO GH vQFUHGHUH D SURJQR]HL FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL HVWLPDW FX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH

a =  SHQWUXFDUHYDORDUHDOXL W SUHOXDW GLQWDEHODGLVWULEX LHL6WXGHQWHVWH W ? = =   VH

YDFDOFXODFXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

   3< [ -W V \ < +W V ] =-a 

  3 [ -    \  +   ] =  -   =   

   3[ \ ] =  

 QFRQFOX]LHFXXQSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LHGHFLIUDGHDIDFHULDvQWUHSULQ] WRUXOXLUHVSHFWLY

YDILFXSULQV vQWUHLPLOLRDQHOHL

 HWLLQGF UDWDSURILWXOXL ( U ) HVWHHJDO

FX

&$ - &7
   U
( )
=  &$ = U &7 + &7 &$ = &7  + U ( )
&7

 XQGH

  &$ = FLIUDGHDIDFHUL\

  &7 = FKHOWXLHOLWRWDOH

 3H ED]D GDWHORU SUREOHPHL UH]XOW  F  DQWUHSUHQRUXO SHQWUX D RE LQH XQ SURILW PDL PLF VDX

HJDO FX   WUHEXLH V  UHDOL]H]H R FLIU  GH DIDFHUL GH FHO PXOW  PLO OHL

 &$ = ( + ) =  

 8WLOL]kQGPRGHOXOHFRQRPHWULF 0 UH]XOW F FLIUDGHDIDFHULDDFHVWRUPDJD]LQHXUPHD] R

GLVWULEX LHQRUPDO GHPHGLH < =  PLOOHLLGHDEDWHUHPHGLHS WUDWLF  V =  PLOOHLLFD

DWDUH

 - < ()

 3 (<  ) = 3 W = 3 (W -) = 3 (W ) =  


 Q FRQFOX]LH DQWUHSUHQRUXO DUH  DQVH GH D QX UHDOL]D XQ SURILW GH  DFHDVWD

UHSUH]HQWkQG ULVFXO V X GH D QXL UHDOL]D GH]LGHUDWXO SURSXV vQ XUPD FXPS U ULL PDJD]LQXOXL

UHVSHFWLY

 I (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF PXOWLIDFWRULDO OLQLDU SH ED]D PDWULFHL

YDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ HORULDPDWULFHLFRHILFLHQ LORUGHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU VLPSOL

 )LHPRGHOXO

    \ = E +E [ +E [ +X    

 6HvQVXPHD] LVHvPSDUWHODQRE LQkQGXVHHFXD LD

    \ = E + E [ + E [     

 6HVFDGHHFXD LDGLQLUH]XOW 

    \ - \ = E
(
[ - [ ) + E
( [ - [ ) + X  

 1RW PFX

    \ = \ - \ 

    [ = [
- [ 

    [ = [ - [ 

96
 0RGHOXOFRQVWUXLWSHED]DDEDWHULORUFHQWUDWHDOHYDULDELOHORUGHYLQH

\ = E [
+E [ +X 
 QDFHVWFD]PDWULFHDYDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ HORUPRGHOXOXLVHGHILQHWHDVWIHO

FRY( \[ ) FRY( \[ )

s

   9 = FRY( [ \ ) s FRY( [ [
) 


FRY ( [ \ ) FRY [ [ ( ) s

 XQGH

( ) \

  s = HVWHGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL\
Q
D
( )
[

  s G = HVWHGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL [  M =  
Q

(\ - \) [ ( - [ ) \ [
  FRY \  [ ( )= = 
Q Q

  
[ =  

[ =  

   \ =       

7DEHOXO

1U [ = [ - [  [ = [ - [  \ = \ - \  [
\  [
\  [
[ 
FUW

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

7RWDO      


 s = (s ) =  =     FRY( \[ )= =  


 s = s ( ) =  =    FRY( [ [ )= =  


 s = s ( ) =  =    FRY( \[ ) = =  


97
   

  9 =    

  



'LVSXQkQGGHPDWULFHD9HVWLPDWRULL E


= E  VHFDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

  9 
  

E
 

= E = (- )  M =  N 
9

 XQGH

  9  =  GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHLYDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ HORUGLQFDUHVHHOLPLQ OLQLD\

LFRORDQD [  

  9 = GHWHUPLQDQWXO PDWULFHL YDULDQ HORU L FRYDULDQ HORU GLQ FDUH VH HOLPLQ  OLQLD \

LFRORDQD\

 

  

  

E = (- ) = =   
  

 

 

  - 


  

E = (- ) = - =  
 


$
(VWLPDWRUXO E  VHFDOFXOHD] GLQUHOD LD

 
 E = \ - E [ - E [ E =   -    -   


 E =  

 0DWULFHD FRHILFLHQ LORU GH FRUHOD LH OLQLDU  VLPSO  D YDULDELOHORU SH ED]D UHOD LHL  VH

GHILQHWH

 U ! U "

   5 = U!    " 
U!#

U "  U "$
 ! 

 XQGH
% % % %
\ ( [() \ ( [ ()
  U+ & * & = = ' ' 

(\ ( ) ([ ( ) )
-,
Qs + & s * &
% %

,

  

  5 =    FDOFXODW FXDMXWRUXOSURJUDPXOXL(;&(/

  

 &XDMXWRUXODFHVWHLPDWULFLHVWLPDWRULL E/1. 0 3
$ $
= E2 VHSRWFDOFXODDVWIHO

8 : ; 556 9 s 5
( -)
  
$
E574 6 9 = E8
$ = 
555 s 6 9

 XQGH

  5 => < = GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHL5GLQFDUHVDHOLPLQDWOLQLD\LFRORDQD [ ? 

  5 @@ = GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHL5GLQFDUHVDHOLPLQDWOLQLD\LFRORDQD\

98
  

  
  

EB = (- )A =  
  

 

 

  

C
  

ED = (- ) =   
 


$
QPRGDQDORJHVWLPDWRUXO E E VHFDOFXOHD] GLQUHOD LD

F
   E =  

 1RW  &D XUPDUH D QXPHURDVHORU vQPXO LUL L URWXQMLUL DX DS UXW PLFL DEDWHUL vQWUH YDORULOH

HVWLPDWRULORURE LQX LODSXQFWXOEvQFRPSDUD LHFXFHOHRE LQXWHODSXQFWXOI

%,%/,2*5$),(


%DOWDJL%(FRQRPHWULFV6SULQJHU%HUOLQ

*LUDXG5&KDL[1eFRQRPpWULH38)3DULV

*UHHQH+:(FRQRPHWULF$QDO\VLV0DFPLOODQ3XEOLVKLQJ&RPSDQ\1HZ<RUN
GIH
*XMDUDWL51%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

*XMDUDWL51(VVHQWLDOVRI(FRQRPHWULFV0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN
GIH
-RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGV HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

/DEURXVVH&,QWURGXFWLRQDOpFRQRPpWULH'XQRG3DULV
GIH
0DGGDOD*6,QWURGXFWLRQWR(FRQRPHWULFV HG0F0LOODQ&R1HZ<RUN
JKH
 3LQG\FN 5 6 5XELQIHOG ' 6  (FRQRPHWULF 0RGHOV DQG (FRQRPLF )RUHFDVWV   HG 0F

*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

9DQJUHYHOLQJKH*eFRQRPpWULH+HUPDQQ&ROOHFWLRQ0pWKRGHV3DULV

99
 &DSLWROXO9

0RGDOLW LGHLQFOXGHUHDYDULDELOHORUFDOLWDWLYHvQPRGHOXO

HFRQRPHWULF


([LVW  vQ HFRQRPLH R FODV  GH YDULDELOH GH LPSRUWDQ  GHORF QHJOLMDELO  FDUH VH UHIHU  OD

vQVXLULFDOLW LLFDWHJRULLHWFDF URUGLPHQVLXQHVHH[SULP SULQDWULEXWHVDXGHQXPLULFHSULYHVF

FDWHJRULLOH FODVHOH VLWXD LLOH (OH VXQW GHQXPLWH YDULDELOH &$/,7$7,9( VDX YDULDELOH DWULEXWLYH

,QWHUHVHD] FXGHRVHELUHYDULDELOHOHFDX]DOHGHQDWXU FDOLWDWLY 

'DF GHH[HPSOXQHUHIHULPILHLQXPDLODFHLGRLSROLDLHFRQRPLHLLDQXPHODFHUHUHL

RIHUW  vQWkOQLP GHVWXOH YDULDELOH FDOLWDWLYH FX LQIOXHQ H VHPQLILFDWLYH $VWIHO FHUHUHD HVWH

FRQGL LRQDW  QX QXPDL GH P ULPHD YHQLWXOXL SUH XOXL HWF FL L GH JUDGXO vQ FDUHSURGXVXOVDWLVIDFH

FXPS U WRUXO GRULQ D GH RULJLQDOLWDWH VDX GH D IL OD PRG  D DFHVWXLD JUDGXO GH FRQWLLQ 

LQWHQVLWDWHDVHQWLPHQWXOXLUHOLJLRVHWF

QFHSULYHWHRIHUWDLSURGXF LDFDUHVWDXODED]DDFHVWHLDHDGHSLQGHGHYDULDELOHQXPHULFH

FDSLWDO QXP U GH VDODULD L HWF GDU L GH JUDGXO GH RUJDQL]DUH D SURGXF LHL SROLWLFD GH VWLPXODUH

JUDGXOGHSUHJ WLUHDOVDODULD LORUFDOLILFDUHDFDSDFLWDWHDORUFUHDWLY FOLPDWXOVRFLDOHWF

3UREOHPD FDUH VH SXQH FHO SX LQ SHQWUX HFRQRPHWULFLDQ HVWH GH D H[SULPD QXPHULF QLYHOXO

XQRU DVWIHO GH YDULDELOH PDL DOHV GDF  UROXO ORU HVWH LPSRUWDQW VDX GDF  HIHFWHOH GH QDWXU  FDOLWDWLY 

SUH]LQW LQWHUHV

'H vQGDW  FH SUREOHPD P VXU ULL HVWH VROX LRQDW  VH GHVFKLGH SRVLELOLWDWHD LQWURGXFHULL

YDULDELOHORU FDOLWDWLYH vQ PRGHOH GH QDWXU  FDQWLWDWLY  FHHD FH DU FRQWULEXL VXEVWDQ LDO OD UHGXFHUHD

JUDGXOXL GH QHGHWHUPLQDUH L GHFL OD R PDL FRPSOHW  H[SOLFD LH D HYROX LHL IHQRPHQHORU GLQ

HFRQRPLH

Q FHOH FH XUPHD]  QH YRP UHIHUL OD SRVLELOLW LOH GH P VXUDUH D YDULDELOHORU FDOLWDWLYH vQ

YDULDQWHOHvQWkOQLWHSkQ vQSUH]HQWvQOLWHUDWXUDGHVSHFLDOLWDWH

$([SULPDUHDYDULDELOHLFDOLWDWLYHvQPRGLQGLUHFWSULQLQWHUPHGLXOXQHLYDULDELOHQXPHULFH

UHSUH]HQWDWLYHVDXFXFDUHHVWHLQWHQVFRUHODW 

3UH]HQW P R VXLW  GH VLWXD LL GHVSULQVH GLQ DQDOL]D XQRU PRGHOH FRQFUHWH vQ FDUH VD DSHODW

ODDFHDVW PRGDOLWDWHGHH[SULPDUHDFDOLW LL

7DEHOXO

9DULDELODFDOLWDWLY  9DULDELODQXPHULF XWLOL]DW 

6WLPXODUHDVDODULD LORU FXDQWXPXOVSRUXULORUGHVDODULL

3ROXDUHDDWPRVIHUHL FDQWLWDWHDGHVXOID LvQDHU

2UJDQL]DUHDSURGXF LHL UDWDXWLOL] ULLWLPSXOXLGHPXQF 

3UHJ WLUHDSURIHVLRQDO  QXP UGHDQLGHFRDO DEVROYL L

(GXFD LDIHPHLLvQVRFLHWDWH SRQGHUHDSRSXOD LHLIHPLQLQHDQDOIDEHWH

3URJUHVXOWHKQLF WLPSXO P VXUDW SULQ QXP UXO GH DQL FDUH QH

GHVSDUWGHXQDQGHED] 

$FHDVW  PHWRG  GH HYDOXDUH IUHFYHQW XWLOL]DW  SUHVXSXQH vQORFXLUHD YDULDELOHL FDOLWDWLYH

SULQWUR YDULDELO UHSUH]HQWDQW 'H H[HPSOX GDF  DGPLWHP F  SURGXFWLYLWDWHD PXQFLL vQ LQGXVWULD

PRELOHL HVWH GHSHQGHQW  GH FDOLILFDUHD VDODULD LORU L GH YROXPXO IRQGXULORU IL[H PRGHUQH DWXQFL

SHQWUX D LQWURGXFH vQ PRGHO SULPD YDULDELO  FDX]DO  FDUH HVWH GH QDWXU  FDOLWDWLY  DSHO P OD R

YDULDELO QXPHULF GHUHSUH]HQWDUHLDQXPHODYHFKLPHDvQPHVHULH'HVLJXUF vQWUHP LHVWULD

SULFHSHUHD PXQFLWRULORU L QXP UXO GH DQL GH YHFKLPH SRW H[LVWD GLVFRUGDQ H L FD XUPDUH R

YDULDELO  UH]LGXDO  WUHEXLH DYXW  vQ YHGHUH 'DU vQWUH YDULDQWD FDUH DU SUHVXSXQH H[FOXGHUHD

YDULDELOHL FDOLWDWLYH L PHQ LQHUHD XQXL VLQJXU IDFWRU YROXPXO IRQGXULORU IL[H L YDULDQWD FDUH

LQFOXGH YDULDELOD FDOLILFDUH SULQ LQWURGXFHUHD YDULDELOHLUHSUH]HQWDQW YHFKLPHD vQ PHVHULH HVWH

 100
GH SUHIHUDW FHD GHD GRXD YDULDQW  $FHDVWD SHQWUX F  vQ SULPD YDULDQW  XQLIDFWRULDO  HVWLPDWRUXO

SDUDPHWUXOXL k  GLQ PRGHOXO 3URGXFWLYLWDWH  k
  k  )RQGXUL )L[H HVWH LQFRQVLVWHQW L SDU LDO

GLVWRUVLRQDW LDU vQ FHD GH D GRXD YDULDQW  vQ FDUH 3URGXFWLYLWDWH  k
  k 9HFKLPHk )RQGXUL

)L[H HVWLPD LLOH SDUDPHWULORU VXQW FRQVLVWHQWH PRGHOXO QHLQFOX]kQG R HURDUH LPSRUWDQW  GH

VSHFLILFDUHDEVHQ DXQXLIDFWRUVHPQLILFDWLYQWUXFkWDFHDVW FDOLWDWHDHVWLPDWRULORUQHLQWHUHVHD] 

FX GHRVHELUH UH]XOW  F  GHFkW V  RPLWHP R YDULDELO  FDX]DO  LPSRUWDQW  SH PRWLY F  HVWH

QHFXDQWLILFDELO  PDL LQGLFDW HVWH V  R OX P vQ FDOFXO ILH L SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO XQHL YDULDELOH

UHSUH]HQWDQWFKLDUGDF DOHJHUHDDFHVWHLDGLQXUP YDULDELOHHVWHGLVFXWDELO 

%([SULPDUHDQXPHULF DYDULDELOHORUGLFKRWRPLFH

([LVWHQ DXQHLYDULDELOHFDUHVHSRDWHSUH]HQWDGRDUVXEGRX DVSHFWHFDUHVHH[FOXGUHFLSURF

SULYLQGH[LVWHQ DQRQH[LVWHQ DDFFHSWDUHDUHIX]XOXUEDQUXUDOPDVFXOLQIHPLQLQHWFIDFHSRVLELO 

WUDQVIHUDUHD vQ VSD LXO QXPHULF SULQ DWULEXLUHD P ULPLL  SHQWUX XQD GLQWUH DOWHUQDWLYH L  SHQWUX

FHDODOW DOWHUQDWLY 

'HRVHELPXUP WRDUHOHVLWXD LL

%  &D]XOXQLIDFWRULDOvQFDUHIDFWRUXO[HVWHGHQDWXU ELQDU 

'HH[HPSOXvQPRGHOXOOLQLDU

\  k
k [

XQGH 

\ LQYHVWL LL

[ IRUPDGHSURSULHWDWHFXDOWHUQDWLYHOHSURSULHWDWHGHVWDW

SURSULHWDWHSULYDW 

(VWLPDWRULLSDUDPHWULORUVHRE LQXWLOL]kQGIRUPXOHOHRELQXLWHL


D  [ 
= \ -D

[ - [  \ - \ 
L L

L
D = 


[ - [ 
L
L

- GDF
[ = D = \
 [ =
FXPHQ LXQHDF  
- GDF
[ = D
+D = \
  [ =

'HFL


D = \  = \   - \   
  -D     

QWUDGHY UGDF VLPEROL] PFX

0\
[    \


0\
[  D
D   \ 

LDUSHQWUXYDULDELODELQDU [


[ = [ = Q 

\ = Q \ 
+ Q

\



[\ = Q \ 
 

$WXQFL

 \ - \  [ - [   [\ - [ \ - [ \ + [\ 

D = =  vQ FDUH LQWURGXFkQG vQ SDUDQWH]H

 
[ - [ 

[ - [ [ + [ 

RSHUDWRUXO LvPS U LQGWRWXOODQL LQkQGVHDPDGHHJDOLW LOHDQWHULRDUHVSHFLILFHYDULDELOHL

\ [
GLFKRWRPLFHGDULGHIDSWXOF  \ =  [ = DMXQJHPODUHOD LLOH
Q Q


D = \  - \ 

 101
 \ Q

D 
= \ -D [ = - \  - \   = \    
Q Q

'DF  D = \ - \   GHFXUJH OD IHO FD vQ FD]XO
 DWXQFL WHVWDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL HVWLPDWRUXOXL D
  

YHULILF ULLVHPQLILFD LHLGLIHUHQ HLGLQWUHGRX PHGLLDGLF 

\ - \
 
W =      
FDOF 
 
s s
 
+
Q Q
 

% &D]XOPXOWLIDFWRULDOvQFDUHYDULDELOHOHH[SOLFDWLYHVXQWELQDUH

'HH[HPSOXvQFD]XOPRGHOXOXLOLQLDU


 \ = D  [ + D
+D  ] 

XQGH

\ YHQLWXOQD LRQDO

[ WLSXOGHHFRQRPLHFHQWUDOL]DWSODQLILFDW 

GHSLD 

] VWDUHDGHSDFH

GHU ]ERL

3URFHGkQG VLPLODU FD]XOXL DQWHULRU %   DMXQJHP OD XUP WRDUHOH UHOD LL SHQWUX HVWLPDWRUL vQ

UDSRUWFXPHGLLOHYDULDELOHLHIHFWRE LQXWHSHQWUXGLYHUVHFRPELQD LLGHVLWXD LL

\       
=D

\ 
      = D 
+ D       

\       
=D 
+ D

'DF QRW PFX \  \   \  FHOHWUHLVLWXD LLGHPDLVXVvQRUGLQHDSUH]HQW ULLUH]XOW F 

D = \
 

D = \ - \ 
  

D = \ - \
  

%! &D]XOvQFDUHPRGHOXOLQFOXGHXQIDFWRUFDOLWDWLYLXQIDFWRUQXPHULF

'HH[HPSOXvQFDGUXOPRGHOXOXL

\ =D [ +D
+ D ] 
  

XQGH

\ FHUHUHDGHVHUYLFLL

[ YHQLW

] PHGLXOXUEDQ

UXUDO

QDFHVWFD]

SHQWUX ] =  \ = D + D [ + X 

SHQWUX ] =  \ = D $ + D# [ + D " + X" =  D$ + D "  + D# [ + X " 

FHHDFHSUHVXSXQHFDvQWUHFHOHGRX VLWXD LLV DSDU GHRVHELULGRDUvQFHSULYHWHSUDJXOGHSRUQLUH

%  LDU FHO GHDO GRLOHD HVWH  D

vQ VHQVXO F  vQ SULPXO FD] DFHVWD HVWH D
+ D  SDQWD P VXUDW  GH
 

 ILLQGDFHHDL*UDILFVLWXD LDHVWHLOXVWUDW GHGRX GUHSWHSDUDOHOH

SDUDPHWUX D

'DF  VH FRQVLGHU  F  YDULDELOD FDOLWDWLY   PHGLXO ]  LQIOXHQ HD]  SDQWD OLQLHL GH UHJUHVLH

SRDWHILDFFHSWDW YDULDQWD

\ D & D ' [D( ]E[]X

&D]vQFDUH

SHQWUX] \ D & D ' [X

 102
 SHQWUX] \ D & D( D ' E[X ab[X

&RPSDUD LD GLQWUH VLWXD LD vQ FDUH ]   L VLWXD LD vQ FDUH ]   HYLGHQ LD]  DWkW QLYHOXO GH

SRUQLUHGLIHULWD & GDF ] D & D( GDF ] FkWLIDSWXOF GUHSWHOHDXSDQWHGLIHULWHD ' b

QHUHSHWkQGXVHVLWXD LDGHSDUDOHOLVPDQWHULRU

2 PRGDOLWDWH GH YHULILFDUH JOREDO  D PRGHOXOXL vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH DO WXUL GH R YDULDELO 

H[SOLFDWLY QXPHULF UHJ VLPXQDVDXPDLPXOWHYDULDELOHELQDUHSRDWHXUPDHWDSHOHWHVWXOXL)FD]

vQFDUH) )+*-, )/. UH]XOW DVWIHO

 
X [ - X
[ V

V
) = )     
FDOF  a V Q - N

X [ V

Q - N

XQGH


X [  VXPDS WUDWHORUHURULORUvQYDULDQWD\ I[
0
X 3 12   VXPD S WUDWHORU vQ YDULDQWD vQ FDUH LQFOXGHP DO WXUL GH [ L R

YDULDELO YDULDELOHELQDUH

V QXP UXOGHYDULDELOHELQDUHLQWURGXVH

QN QXP UXOGHFD]XULPLQXVQXP UXOGHSDUDPHWUL

%4 &D]XOvQFDUHYDULDELODHIHFWHVWHGHQDWXU ELQDU 

'HH[HPSOXvQPRGHOXO

\ = D [ 
+ D
 

XQGH

\ vQ]HVWUDUHDIDPLOLHLFXXQDXWRWXULVP

[ YHQLWXO

QDFHVWFD]GHRVHELPVLWXD LLOH

SHQWUX\ IDPLOLDQXSRVHG DXWRWXULVPUH]XOW F D & D ' [ X

 SHQWUX \   IDPLOLD SRVHG  DXWRWXULVP UH]XOW  F   O  D & D ' [ XFHHDFHLPSOLF 

KHWHURVFHGDVWLFLWDWHD SHUWXUED LHL OD FDUH VH DGDXJ  IDSWXO F  UHSDUWL LD DFHVWHLD QX HVWH QRUPDO  &D

XUPDUH HVWLPD LLOH SHQWUX SDUDPHWULL FX GHRVHELUH SHQWUX HDQWLRDQH PLFL VH VLWXHD]  vQ DIDUD

SRVLELOLW LORUGHWHVWDUHRELQXLW 

0RGHOXO H[SULP  YDULDELOD GLFKRWRPLF  \ FD R IXQF LH OLQLDU  GH [ DD vQFkW 0\ 5   [ 5 

UHSUH]LQW  PHGLD YDULDELOHL DOHDWRDUH \ 5  FRQGL LRQDW  GH [ 5  $DGDU 3\  [ 5  UHSUH]LQW 

SUREDELOLWDWHD SHQWUX H[HPSOXO FRQVLGHUDW FD IDPLOLD L V  SRVHGH DXWRWXULVP vQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH

GLVSXQH GH YHQLWXO [ 5  $FFHSWkQG LSRWH]D IUHFYHQW LQYRFDW  0X 5   RE LQHP

0 (\ L
[
L
)
=D

[
+D
 L
 vQ FDUH GDF  QRW P FX 3 5   SUREDELOLWDWHD FD \   L FX 3 5  

SUREDELOLWDWHD FD \   SXWHP FRQVHPQD SHQWUX YDULDELOD GLFKRWRPLF  \ XUP WRDUHD GLVWULEX LH L

QLYHOHX 5 FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH

\ 5  vQ3 5 FD]XULFXX 5  D & D ' [

\ 5 vQ3 5 FD]XULFXX 5  D & D ' [ 6

'HUH LQXWIDSWXOF X 5 SUH]LQW GRDUGRX YDORULXUPkQGRGLVWULEX LHELQRPLDO $FHVWIDSW

QXDUHHIHFWDVXSUDHVWLPD LLORUSDUDPHWULORUDFHVWHDU PkQQHGHSODVDWH0DLFRQVHPQ PF SHQWUX

Q HVWLPD LLOH VXQW vQ JHQHUDO QRUPDO GLVWULEXLWH $FHDVWD DUH LPSOLFD LL DVXSUD WHVW ULL vQ VHQVXO

F SHQWUXHDQWLRDQHPDULYHULILFDUHDVHUHDOL]HD] vQFRQGL LLRELQXLWH


7
 'LVWULEX LD ELQRPLDO  VH UHIHU  OD SURFHVH vQ FDUH VH UHDOL]HD]  Q H[SHULHQ H LQGHSHQGHQWH FRUHVSXQ] WRU VFKHPHL

XUQHL OXL %HUQRXOOL XUQ  FDUH FRQ LQH 1 ELOH GH PDL PXOWH FXORUL LDU ELOD H[WUDV  HVWH UHSXVD vQ XUQ  'DF  DYHP vQ

YHGHUH GRX  DOWHUQDWLYH GH U VSXQV GDVDXQXELODDOE VDXELODQHDJU DWXQFLSUREDELOLWDWHDGHDSDUL LHDXQHLDGLQWUH

DOWHUQDWLYHV RQXPLQ$HVWHFRQVWDQW LHJDO FXSLDUGHQHDSDUL LHDUHVSHFWLYHLDOWHUQDWLYHHVWHS'DF ; 8 9: 

UHSUH]LQW  YDULDELOD DOHDWRDUH SULYLQG QXP UXO GH DSDUL LL D DOWHUQDWLYHL $ vQ FHOH Q H[SHULHQ H LQWHUHVHD] 

SUREDELOLWDWHD DSDUL LHL HYHQLPHQWXOXL  $ GH N RUL vQ Q H[SHULHQ H LQGHSHQGHQWH  SUREDELOLWDWH FDUH UH]XOW  GLQ WHUPHQXO

JHQHUDODOGH]YROW ULLELQRPXOXLOXL1HZWRQGHXQGHLGHQXPLUHDUHSDUWL LHL

 103
 3H GH DOW  SDUWH PRGXO vQ FDUH HYROXHD]  X5  QX HVWH FDUDFWHULVWLF LSRWH]HL GH

KRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWHvQWUXFkWGHSLQGHGHDOWHUQDWLYHOHYDULDELOHL\FDUHODUkQGXOHLGHSLQGHGH[ 5 &D

XUPDUHX 5 GHSLQGHGH[ 5 FHHDFHHVWHFDUDFWHULVWLFKHWHURVFHGDVWLFLW LLFXLPSOLFD LLQHGRULWHDVXSUD

HILFLHQ HLHVWLPDWRULORU2VROX LHvQDVWIHOGHVLWXD LLDUFRQVWDDDFXPYRPDU WDvQ&DSLWROXO9,,,

vQ GLYL]DUHD WHUPHQLORU UHJUHVLHL OD HOHPHQWXO GH SRQGHUDUH UHSUH]HQWDW GH DEDWHUHD PHGLH S WUDWLF 

sQFD]XOQRVWUXDPY ]XWF YDORULOHOXL\DSDUFXSUREDELOLWDWHD3 5 UHVSHFWLY3 5 DVWIHOvQFkW

;
s< = 3<  - 3<  FHHDFHUHSUH]LQW GLVSHUVLDSHQWUXFD]XOYDULDELOHLELQDUH

3HQWUXDRE LQHHVWLPD LDDEDWHULLPHGLLS WUDWLFHsILLQGQHFXQRVFXW vQWUXFkWL0\ 5 [ 5  

D &   D '  [ HVWH QHFXQRVFXW  VH SURFHGHD]  OD HVWLPDUHD HFXD LHL GH UHJUHVLH \  D &   D '  [  X 6H

>  D
RE LQI U D LQHVHDPDGHKHWHURVFHGDVWLFLWDWHHVWLPD LLOH D =  \
LDUDSRL Z = \  - \  QWU
L L L

R XUP WRDUH HWDS  VH SURFHGHD]  OD RE LQHUHD YDULDQWHL WUDQVIRUPDWH

\  Z =D  Z + D [  Z +X  Z vQFDUH Y? = X ?  Z? HVWHKRPRVFHGDVWLF 
L L  L  L L L L

([HPSOHGHXWLOL]DUHDYDULDELOHLGLFKRWRPLFHGXPP\vQPRGHOH

$QDOL] PSHQWUXvQFHSXWFD]XOFHOPDLIUHFYHQWvQFDUHSULQWUHUHJUHVRULDSDULYDULDELOH

FDOLWDWLYHGHWLSGLFKRWRPLF

\ 5  D & D ' [ 5 D( G 5 X 5 

XQGH

\ FRQVXPXOGHFDIHD

[ YkUVWD

G YDULDELODGLFKRWRPLF FXYDORULOHSHQWUXIHPLQLQ

SHQWUXPDVFXOLQ

6 FRQVLGHU PGDWHOH

7DEHOXO

\             

[             

G             

QXUPDHVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORUSHED]DUHOD LLORULRE LQHP

@ 
D 

A 
D 

B 
D 

$DGDU OD R FUHWHUH D YkUVWHL FX XQ DQ FRQVXPXO GH FDIHD D FUHVFXW vQ PHGLH FX  

F QL vQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH YDULDELOD ' HVWH FRQVWDQW  vQ VHQVXO F  VXQW OXDWH vQ FRQVLGHUDUH QXPDL

GDWHOH SHQWUX FDUH' VDXQXPDLGDWHOHSHQWUXFDUH' &UHWHUHDYDULDELOHLGLFKRWRPLFH

' GH OD  OD  DUH GUHSW HIHFW R VF GHUH D FRQVXPXOXL vQ PHGLH FX   F QL vQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH

YDULDELOD;YkUVWDHVWHPHQ LQXW FRQVWDQW 

 &D]XO PDL UDU vQWkOQLW vQ FDUH YDULDELOD HIHFW HVWH GH WLS GLFKRWRPLF VH UHIHU  OD

UHSUH]HQWDUHD

\ D & D ' [X

XQGH

\ vQ]HVWUDUHDSRVHVLDFXXQWHOHIRQPRELO

 SHUVRDQDSRVHG XQDVWIHOGHWHOHIRQ

 SHUVRDQDQXSRVHG XQDVWIHOGHWHOHIRQ

[ YHQLWXOPHGLXOXQDU

'DWHOHRE LQXWHvQXUPDXQXLVRQGDMVXQWXUP WRDUHOH

 104
 7DEHOXO

\               

[               

PLOOHL

5H]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHvQXUPDHVWLP ULLVXQW

@ 
D 


D 

,QWHUSUHWDUHDSDUDPHWULORUHVWLPD LHVWHXUP WRDUHD

@ 
 D  H[SULP SUREDELOLWDWHDFDRSHUVRDQ I U XQYHQLWFkWGHFkWVHPQLILFDWLY[

V SRVHGHXQWHOHIRQ


 D   UHVSHFWLY OD R FUHWHUH FX   PLO D YHQLWXOXL PHGLX OXQDU DQVD

SUREDELOLWDWHDFDRSHUVRDQ V SRVHGHWHOHIRQFUHWHvQPHGLHFX

&([SULPDUHDQXPHULF DYDULDELOHORUSROLFKRWRPLFH

Q VLWXD LLOH vQ FDUH YDULDELOD FDOLWDWLY  SUH]LQW  PDL PXOW GHFkW GRX  DOWHUQDWLYH DFHVWRUD OL

VHDWULEXLHQRWHVDXGXS FD]QXPHUHGHRUGLQHvQUDSRUWFXDSDUWHQHQ DODRVWDUHVDXDOWD

'HRVHELPXUP WRDUHOHVLWXD LL

&  9DULDELODFDOLWDWLY SUH]LQW RGLYHUVLWDWHGHVW ULI U DLPSOLFDRRUGRQDUHDDFHVWRUDvQ

UDSRUWFXLQWHQVLWDWHD

$VWIHO GH YDULDELOH VXQW QD LRQDOLWDWHD UHOLJLD DSDUWHQHQ D OD R VRFLHWDWH QHOXFUDWLY  UDVD

HWF Q DVWIHO GH FD]XUL SXWHP SURFHGD OD IHO FD L vQ FD]XO YDULDELOHL ELQDUH OD DWULEXLUHD GH YDORUL

HFKLGLVWDQWHGLYHUVHORUDOWHUQDWLYH

([HPSOHGHDSOLFDUHDYDULDELOHORUSROLFKRWRPLFHvQPRGHOH

3URGXF LDvQVHFWRUXO]RRWHKQLFRE LQXW GHILUPD0HVWHvQIXQF LHGHDQRWLPS$DGDU

4C  D & D ' $ C X C 

XQGH

$  DQRWLPSXO SUH]LQW  DOWHUQDWLYHOH FXQRVFXWH F URUD OL VH DWULEXLH YDORUL

DVWIHOSULP YDUD

YDUD

WRDPQD

LDUQD

 5DWD SURILWXOXL vQ vQWUHSULQGHULOH FRPHUFLDOH HVWH FRQVLGHUDW  GHSHQGHQW  GH IRUPD GH

SURSULHWDWHFHHDFHDFRQGXVODHFXD LD

3) 5  D & D ' 3URSULHWDWH 5 X 5 

XQGH

3URSULHWDWHDSRDWHILGHVWDW

SDUWLFXODU 

PL[W 

5HIHULQGXQHODDFHVWXOWLPH[HPSOXV REVHUY PF 

H
SHQWUX3URSULHWDWHDPL[W RE LQHP D G
+ D = \ E/F J KML N OQP R+P O I D 

'H DVHPHQHD VH SRDWH SURFHGD OD WUDQVIRUPDUHD PRGHOXOXL DVWIHO vQFkW vQ GUHDSWD VHPQXOXL

GHHJDOLWDWHV DSDU GRX YDULDELOHELQDUH

\ D & D ' [ ' D( [( X

QFDUH[(  GDF SURSULHWDWHDHVWHPL[W [(  GDF SURSULHWDWHDQXHVWHPL[W HVWHILH

GHVWDWILHSDUWLFXODU UHVSHFWLY[ '  GDF SURSULHWDWHDHVWHSDUWLFXODU [ '  GDF SURSULHWDWHD

QX HVWH SULYDW  HVWH ILH GH VWDW ILH PL[W  5H]XOW  F  DWXQFL FkQG [ '    [(    UHVSHFWLY DWXQFL

FkQG [(   [ '   Q FRQWLQXDUH SRDWH IL XUPDW  VFKHPD GH RE LQHUH D HVWLPDWRULORU SUH]HQWDW  vQ

FD]XOYDULDELOHORUH[SOLFDWLYHELQDUH% 

 105
 3HQWUX YHULILFDUHD VHPQLILFD
S LHL GHSHQGHQ HL YDULDELOHORU SROLFKRWRPLFH GH WLSXO FHORU

SUH]HQWDWHVHXWLOL]HD] WHVWXO 

6  H[HPSOLILF P R DVWIHO GH WHVWDUH SHQWUX FD]XO vQ FDUH YDULDELOHOH FDOLWDWLYH VXQW IRUPD GH

SURSULHWDWH [ DWLWXGLQHD LQYHVWLWRULORU VWU LQL \ Q XUPD FKHVWLRQ ULL XQXL QXP U GH  GH

LQYHVWLWRULVWU LQLVDDMXQVODGLVWULEX LD7DEHOXO

7DEHOXO

,QWHQ LDLQYHVWLWRUXOXLVWU LQ 3URSULHWDWHDVHFWRUXO 7RWDO

SDUWLFXODU PL[W GHVWDW

,QYHVWHVF    

1XLQYHVWHVF    

7RWDO    

+T QXH[LVW OHJ WXU vQWUHIRUPDGHSURSULHWDWHLDWLWXGLQHDLQYHVWLWRULORUVWU LQL

/HJHD GH UHSDUWL LH FDUH QH VW  vQ DWHQ LH vQ DVWIHO GH SUREOHPH
S vQ FDUH LQWHUYLQ VXPH GH

S WUDWHGHYDULDELOHDOHDWRDUHLQGHSHQGHQWHQRUPDOHHVWHOHJHD 

YDORDUHDFDOFXODW 


[ -   ] [ -   ]
 
Q - Q 3 
 LM M L
c = = + +
FDOF 
L M
Q 3    
M L

[ -    ] [ -    ] [ -    ]

  

+ + + + 
     

[ -    ]


+ = 
 
U
YDORDUHDWDEHODW SHQWUX3 LY JUDGHGHOLEHUWDWHHVWH c =  
W Y W X VU
Z

QWUXFkWYDORDUHDFDOFXODW HVWHVXSHULRDU FHOHLWDEHODWHSXWHPDILUPDFXRSUREDELOLWDWHGH

D QX JUHL GH 3   F  H[LVW  OHJ WXU  vQWUH IRUPD GH SURSULHWDWH L DWLWXGLQHD LQYHVWLWRULORU

VWU LQL

&[  9DULDELOD FDOLWDWLY  SUH]LQW  LQWHQVLW L GLIHULWH PRWLY SHQWUX FDUH DFHVWRUD OL VH DWULEXLH

QXPHUHGHRUGLQHVDXVHSURFHGHD] ODFDOFXOXOQRWHORUSURSRU LRQDOHFXLQWHQVLWDWHD

$VWIHO GH VLWXD LL VXQW SUH]HQWH vQGHRVHEL vQ VWXGLLOH GH PDUNHWLQJ VRFLRORJLH SROLWRORJLH vQ

FDUHRSLQLDVDWLVIDF LDvQFUHGHUHDLQVWUXLUHDHWFSRWV GLIHUHFDLQWHQVLWDWH

$WULEXLUHD GH YDORUL SHQWUX XQHOH GLQWUH YDULDELOH HVWH IDFLOLWDW  GH IDSWXO F  XQLWDWHD GH

REVHUYDUH HVWH vQFDGUDW  vQWUR FDWHJRULH vQ UDSRUW FX QLYHOXO GH LQVWUXLUH YDORDUHD UH]XOWDWHORU

GRWDUHD JHQHUD LD HWF $VWIHO vQWkOQLP SHUVRDQH DEVROYHQWH DOH XQHL WUHSWH GH vQY PkQW

FDOFXODWRDUHGHRDQXPLW JHQHUD LHKRWHOXULGHDQXPLWHFDWHJRULLHWFQDVWIHOGHVLWXD LLDWULEXLUHD

GH QXPHUH GH RUGLQH FDUH V  XUPH]H VXFFHVLXQHD FDWHJRULLORU vQ FDUH HVWH vQFDGUDW  XQLWDWHD GH

REVHUYDUH DU UHSUH]HQWD R UH]ROYDUH D SUREOHPHL FXDQWLILF ULL 1HDMXQVXO FRQVW  vQ IDSWXO F  YDORULOH

DVWIHODWULEXLWHVXQWHFKLGLVWDQWHFHHDFHQXFRUHVSXQGHvQWRWGHDXQDGLVWDQ HORUGLQWUHFDWHJRULLOHGH

FDOLWDWH

Q FHHD FH SULYHWH LQWHQVLWDWHD GHSHQGHQ HL vQ FD]XO XQRU DVWIHO GH YDULDELOH VH UHFRPDQG 

XWLOL]DUHDFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHFRUHOD LHDUDQJXULORUQXPHUHORUGHRUGLQHQYDULDQWD6SHDUPDQDFHVW

FRHILFLHQW UH]XOW  SURFHGkQG LQL LDO OD VWDELOLUHD UDQJXULORU SHQWUX ILHFDUH YDULDELO  vQ UDSRUW FX

LQWHQVLWDWHD SUH]HQ HL IHQRPHQXOXL RE LQHUHD GLIHUHQ HORU vQWUH UDQJXULOH GH SH DFHODL UkQG G 5  

5\^] 5 _ 5`a] 5 _ DSOLFDUHDIRUPXOHLFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHFRUHOD LH6SHDUPDQ

([HPSOXOSUH]HQWDWvQ7DEHOXOUHG FRQFUHWWRDWHDFHVWHHWDSH

 106
 7DEHOXO

&DOLWDWHDVHUYLFLXOXL 9kUVWDPHGLH 5DQJXOQRWD 'LIHUHQ HvQWUHUDQJXUL

\ DVDODULD LORU SULYLQG

(
[ 5\  5`  G5 5\ 5`  GL

L )RDUWHELQH     

%LQH     

6DWLVI F WRU     

1HVDWLVI F WRUL     

6XERULFHFULWLF      

&RHILFLHQWXOGHFRUHOD LHDUDQJXOXLHVWHRE LQXWFRQIRUPUHOD LHL


 G
L  
L
  + 
U =- =- =  
6
 
Q Q -    - 

&RUHOD LD GLQWUH FHOH GRX  YDULDELOH GLQWUH FDUH XQD HVWH GH QDWXU  FDOLWDWLY  HVWH IRDUWH

LQWHQV LDUHYROX LLOHVXQWGHDFHODLVHQV

'0 VXUDUHDSULQLQWHUPHGLXOHYROX LHLIUHFYHQ HL

2 SRVLELOLWDWH GH D DMXQJH OD FXDQWLILFDUHD UROXOXL SH FDUH vO DX YDULDELOHOH FDOLWDWLYH vQ

HFRQRPLH HVWH RIHULW  GH YDULDELOLWDWHD IUHFYHQ HL )DSWXO F  SXWHP GHWHUPLQD QXP UXO GH FD]XUL

H[LVWHQW SH GLYHUVH WUHSWH FDOLWDWLYH IDFH FD YDULDELOD V  ILH FDUDFWHUL]DW  FD QXP UDELO  VSUH

GHRVHELUH GH IHQRPHQHOH P VXUDELOH FDUDFWHUL]DWH FD ILLQG QXPHULFH &D XUPDUH HYROX LD

IUHFYHQ HL SH GLYHUVH FDWHJRULL GH FDOLWDWH RIHU  SRVLELOLWDWHD GH D LQWURGXFH YDULDELOD FDOLWDWLY  vQ

GLYHUVHFDOFXOHGHQDWXU HFRQRPLF 

([HPSOX

'HSHQGHQ D GLQWUH GRX  YDULDELOH FDOLWDWLYH VDWLVIDFHUHD FHUHULL L WLSXO GH VRFLHWDWH HVWH

P VXUDW  SRUQLQGXVH GH OD HYROX LD SDUDOHO  D QXP UXOXL GH FD]XUL vQUHJLVWUDWH vQ DQXPLWH VW UL

FDOLWDWLYH VHPQLILFDWLYH GLQ SHUVSHFWLYD WHRULHL HFRQRPLFH $VWIHO GH FHUHUL DU SXWHD IL FHUHUHD

QHVDWLVI FXW  \ L SURSULHWDWHD SDUWLFXODU  [ 'DWHOH FX DMXWRUXO F URUD H[HPSOLILF P SURFHGHXO

VXQWXUP WRDUHOH

7DEHOXO

$QXO  

7ULPHVWUXO ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,,

1XP UXOFHUHULORUQHVDWLVI FXWHODPDWHULDOH      

GHFRQVWUXF LL\

3RQGHUHDVHFWRUXOXLSDUWLFXODUvQFRPHU XO      

FXPDWHULDOHGHFRQVWUXF LL[

(VWLPDWRULL PRGHOXOXL OLQLDU \ = D [  VXQW D
+ D
=  D = -  FHHD FH LQGLF  R
   

VF GHUH vQ PHGLH FX  FD]XUL D FHUHULORU QHVDWLVI FXWH OD R FUHWHUH FX  D SRQGHULL VHFWRUXOXL

SDUWLFXODUvQFRPHU XOFXPDWHULDOHGHFRQVWUXF LL

02'(/8/ /2*,7  VH UHIHU  OD VLWXD LL vQ FDUH YDULDELOD HIHFW \ HVWH ELQDU  GHSHQGHQW 

GH YDULDELOD QXPHULF  FDX]DO  [ 6H FRQVLGHU  F  SH P VXU  FH IDFWRUXO [ VH PRGLILF  vQ VHQV

FUHVF WRU VDX vQ VHQV GHVFUHVF WRU VH FXPXOHD]  HOHPHQWH FDUH IDF FD HIHFWXO V  WUHDF  GH OD R

DOWHUQDWLY  \   OD FHDODOW  \   'H H[HPSOX GHFL]LD XQXL FKLULD GH D FXPS UD DSDUWDPHQWXO

RIHULW GH SURSULHWDU VSUH YkQ]DUH GHSLQGH GH YHQLW RS LXQHD SHQWUX U VSXQVXO GD VDX QX OD R

SURSXQHUHGHSLQGHGHP ULPHDDYDQWDMHORUHWF([LVW DDGDUVLWXD LLvQGHRVHELvQQHJRFLHULvQFDUH

 107
SH P VXU  FH IDFWRUXO [ VH PRGLILF  vQ DFHHDL P VXU  DSDU PRGLILF UL L vQ FH SULYHWH DQVD GH D

RSWDSHQWUXRDOWHUQDWLY VDXDOWDDGHFL]LHLILQDOH

([LVWHQ DDQXPDLGRX DOWHUQDWLYHSHQWUX\IDFHFDSHP VXU FHvQDLQW PSHVFDUDYDORULORU

[ b V QHDSURSLHPGHXQSXQFWGHFRWLWXU GHODFDUHRS LXQHDLQL LDO \ VHPRGLILF UDGLFDO\

8QPRGHOGHGHVFULHUHDXQXLDVWIHOGHSURFHVVHED]HD] SHIXQF LDORJLVWLF vQVHQVXOF 


3 = 0 \ =  [  = c    
L L
-  D +E[ 
+H

'DF QRW PFX] b  DE[ b UHOD LDGHYLQH


3f = g e d        
+ H

L UHSUH]LQW  R IXQF LH FXPXODW  GH UHSDUWL LH GH WLS ORJLVWLF >@ 3XWHP DILUPD F  SH P VXU  FH ] b 

FUHWH GH OD  OD  3 b  VH PRGLILF  GH OD  OD  H[SULPkQG FRUHVSXQ] WRU UHOD LHL 

GHSHQGHQ D QHOLQLDU  vQ UDSRUW FX ] b  SUHFXP L vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL 'H H[HPSOX GHFL]LD GH

SDUWLFLSDUH VDX QHSDUWLFLSDUH OD R DIDFHUH \ GHSLQGH GH SRQGHUHD SURILWXOXL FHGDW [1RW PFX3 b 

 SUREDELOLWDWHD GH SDUWLFLSDUH L FX 3 b   SUREDELOLWDWHD GH QHSDUWLFLSDUH &RUHVSXQ] WRU

PRGHOXOXL/RJLW


3f = g e d 
+ H

UHVSHFWLY

-] h -] h
 +H - H
 - 3  =  - = = 
L h h h
-] -] -]
+H +H +H

3HQWUXDVWDELOLSURSRU LDDFFHSW ULLID GHSURSRU LDQHDFFHSW ULLDYHPvQYHGHUHUDSRUWXO

-] i
3
L +H  ] i
= = =H     
i i
- 3 -] -]
L H H

-] i
+H

QYHGHUHDOLQLDUL] ULLDSHO PODORJDULWPLLQDWXUDOLLRE LQHP

3
L
OQ = ] L
OQ H = ]
L
= D + E[
L
   
- 3
L
j
3
5DSRUWXO OQ j  HVWH GHQXPLW /RJLW L HVWH UHGDW SULQ VLPEROXO /$DGDU/ DE[ b 
- 3

3DUDPHWUXO E H[SULP  vQ FD]XO H[HPSOXOXL FRQVLGHUDW FX FkW VH PRGLILF  ORJDULWPXO UDWHL GH

DFFHSWDUH/ODRPRGLILFDUHFXFXDSRQGHULLSURILWXOXLFHGDWDIDFWRUXOXL

Q YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL SDUDPHWULORU VH UHFRPDQG  XWLOL]DUHD PHWRGHL YHURVLPLOLW LL PD[LPH

>@QVLWXD LDvQFDUHGLVSXQHPGHGDWHVWUXFWXUDWHSHJUXSHGHFD]XULFRUHVSXQ] WRDUHQLYHOHORU[ b 

SXWHPXWLOL]DXUP WRUXODOJRULWP

SHQWUX ILHFDUH QLYHO [ b  VH FDOFXOHD]  SH ED]D GDWHORU RE LQXWH SHQWUX XQ QXP U GH Q FD]XUL

SURSRU LD

Q
= 3 
L
L
1
L

XQGH

Q b  QXP UXOGHFD]XULGHDFFHSWDUH\ b GLQJUXSDL

1b  QXP UXOWRWDOGHFD]XULGLQJUXSDL

SHQWUXILHFDUHQLYHO[ b VHGHWHUPLQ QLYHOXOORJLWXOXL/ b 

3k
/k = OQ 
 - 3k

 108
 VH SURFHGHD]  OD DSOLFDUHD 0&003 SHQWUX HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU D L E GLQ

PRGHOXO /l + E[
=D l  vQWUXFkW YDULDELOD / b  HVWH OLQLDU GHSHQGHQW  GH [ b  'HRDUHFH SHUWXUED LD HVWH

KHWHURVFHGDVWLF VHUHFRPDQG YDULDQWDSRQGHUDW D0&003vQFDUHSRQGHUHDHVWH

Z b  1 b 3 b 3 b 

5H]XOW DVWIHOHJDOLWDWHD

Z / =D Z + E[ Z +X Z    
L L L L L L L

VDX

P
=D Q
+ D +Y      
L   L L

([HPSOXGHDSOLFDUHDPRGHOXL/RJLW

6H FRQVLGHU  XQ DQVDPEOX LSRWHWLF GH FD]XUL GH QHJRFLHUH vQ FDUH vQ UDSRUW FX SURFHQWXO GH

SURILW FHGDW SDUWHQHUXOXL DX IRVW vQUHJLVWUDWH VFKLPE UL DOH GHFL]LHL LQL LDOH GH QHSDUWLFLSDUH OD

DFFHSWDUHD QHJRFLHULL 'DWHOH SUHFXPLUH]XOWDWHOHFRUHVSXQ] WRUPHWRGHLSUH]HQWDWHVXQWvQVFULVH

vQ7DEHOXO

7DEHOXO

3URILW 1U 1UWRWDO Qo 3r

 - 3p 3q Z = P = Z / Q = Z ;
m 3o = /r = OQ L L L L L L L
LQWHUYDO[ 

[ FHORUFH GH  - 3r
1o
 - 3q =1 3 (-3 )
  
&HQWUXGH

 DFFHSW  FD]XUL L L L

 
Q n  1 n  


          

          

          

          

5H]XOW F 

D = -



D = 


$VWIHO vQFkW GDF  QH UHIHULP GH H[HPSOX OD FD]XO L      DQVD GH D DFFHSWD

FRQWUDFWXOHVWHGH3s  

02'(/8/ 352%,7 QRUPLW HVWH UHFRPDQGDW vQ DFHODL JHQ GH VLWXD LL GHVFULVH GH

PRGHOXO /RJLW FX FDUH GH DOWIHO VH DVHDP Q  IRDUWH PXOW 'HRVHELUHD FRQVW  vQ IDSWXO F  IXQF LD GH

UHSDUWL LHFXPXODW QXPDLHVWHGHWLSORJLVWLFFLHVWHRUHSDUWL LHQRUPDO VWDQGDUGPRWLYSHQWUX

FDUH PRGHOXO HVWH GHQXPLW L QRUPLW 6  FRQVLGHU P UHOD LD GH GHSHQGHQ  \  D t   D u  [  X vQ

FDUH\HVWHRYDULDELO ELQDU 'DF \SRDWHvQUHJLVWUDRJDP LQILQLW GHQXDQ HSHFDOHDFDUHGXFH

GH OD R GHFL]LH \   OD RSXVD HL \   VH DSHOHD]  OD IXQF LD FXPXODWLY  GH UHSDUWL LH SHQWUX D

UHDOL]D WUDQVIRUPDUHD WUHSWHORU FDOLWDWLYH DOH YDULDELOHL LQL LDOH \ vQ WHUPHQL SUREDELOLVWLFL 3 v  FX

DVLJXUDUHDXQHLUHOD LLPRQRWRQHvQWUH\ v L3 v QSULQFLSLXVHSRDWHSURFHGDODvQORFXLUHDIXQF LHLGH

WLSORJLVWLFFXH[SUHVLDFXUEHLIXQF LHLGHUHSDUWL LHQRUPDO UHGXV SURFHGkQGXVHVLPLODUFD

L vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL /RJLW Q SUDFWLF  HVWH SUHIHUDW PRGHOXO /RJLW PRWLY SHQWUX FDUH D IRVW

SUH]HQWDWPDLSHODUJ

%,%/,2*5$),(

 *ULIILWKV : -XGJH * &DUWHU +  /HDUQLQJ DQG 3UDFWLFLQJ (FRQRPHWULFV :LOH\ 1 <



 -RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGV0F*UDZ+LOO1<

 .PHQWD-(OHPHQWVRI(FRQRPHWULFV0F0LOODQ&R1<

 3HFLFDQ((FRQRPHWULH(GLWXUD$OO%XFXUHWL

 109
 &DSLWROXO9,

6HULLFURQRORJLFHDQDOL]DWHDWkWSULQSULVPDFRPSRQHQWHORU

FkWLDQHVWD LRQDULW LLLFRLQWHJU ULL



 'DWHOH VWDWLVWLFH FDUH UHIOHFW  UH]XOWDWHOH DQXDOH WULPHVWULDOH OXQDUH HWF SULYLQG DFWLYLW LOH

HFRQRPLFHVHFDUDFWHUL]HD] QXDWkWSULQVWDELOLWDWHFkWPDLFXUkQGSULQIOXFWXD LLGHODRSHULRDG OD

DOWD &URQRJUDPHOH YH]L )LJXUD  L )LJXUD  vQI LkQG HYROX LD XQRU YDULDELOH HFRQRPLFH

VXQWHORFYHQWHvQDFHVWVHQV

 'LQ SHUVSHFWLYD HFRQRPHWULHL SUREOHPD HYROX LHL SURFHVHORU HFRQRPLFH vQ WLPS LQWHUHVHD] 

GDWRULW XUP WRDUHORUPRWLYH

P VXUDUHD UROXOXL XQRU IDFWRUL FDOLWDWLYL QHQXPHULFL FDUH vL GHVI RDU  DF LXQHD vQ GHFXUVXO

WLPSXOXL SURJUHVXO WHKQLF DFXPXO ULOH GH EXQXUL SURFHVHOH GH vQY DUH HWF SRDWH IL DERUGDW 

OXkQGvQFDOFXOYDULDELODWLPSSULYLW FDXQLUGHQXPHUHvQSURJUHVLHDULWPHWLF 

DF LXQHD XQRU FDX]H QX DIHFWHD]  LQVWDQWDQHX YDULDELOD HIHFW FL GXS  XQ LQWHUYDO GH WLPS ODJ

PDLPXOWVDXPDLSX LQvQGHOXQJDW'HDLFLLQWHUHVXOSHQWUXFXQRDWHUHDGLVWDQ HLvQWLPSODFDUH

VH PDQLIHVW  LQIOXHQ D IDFWRULORU LQWHUYDOXOXL GLQWUH HYROX LD XQRU YDULDELOHVHPQDO YDULDELOH

SUHFXUVRDUH L PRGLILFDUHD YDULDELOHL HIHFW vQWkU]LHUHD OD FDUH DSDU LPSOLFD LLOH HFRQRPLFH

JHQHUDWHGHP VXULOHJXYHUQDPHQWDOH

HYLGHQ LHUHD LQYDULDQ LORU WHQGLQ D HYROXWLY  RVFLOD LLOH VLVWHPDWLFH vQ VHQVXO P VXU ULL

LQWHQVLW LLDFHVWRUDLPRGHO ULLUROXOXLORUvQHYROX LDYLLWRDUHDSURFHVXOXLHFRQRPLF

7HQGLQ DJHQHUDO 

5HSUH]HQW ULOH JUDILFH YH]L )LJXUD  L )LJXUD  HYLGHQ LD]  SH OkQJ  LQVWDELOLWDWHD

LQGLFDWRULORU L IDSWXO F  vQ JHQHUDO HYROX LD FXUVXOXL GH VFKLPE )LJXUD  HVWH vQ FUHWHUH LDU

FHDDGDWRULHLH[WHUQH)LJXUDLQGLF VHPQHGHvQFHWLQLUHDFUHWHULLDSURSLLQGXVHGHXQQLYHO

VWDELO

7DEHO  (YROX LD FXUVXOXL GH VFKLPE PHGLX OXQDU OHLGRODU 68$ vQ LQWHUYDOXO 9,,,  ;,,



 , ,, ,,, ,9 9 9, 9,, 9,,, ,; ; ;, ;,,

            

      
























        

)LJXUD

7DEHO  (YROX LD GDWRULHL H[WHUQH SH WHUPHQ PHGLX L OXQJ D 5RPkQLHL GDWH DQXDOH

SULYLQGVLWXD LDOD;,,DILHF UXLDQGLQLQWHUYDOXO

110
 

$QXO          

\PLOOHL          











    

)LJXUD

7DEHO1XP UXOPLLORFXLWRULGHORFXLWRULGLQ%XFXUHWLvQLQWHUYDOXO

          

          

          

         

         











          

)LJXUD

7(1',1 $ *(1(5$/  GHQXPLW  L WUHQG VH PDQLIHVW  FD R PRGLILFDUH XQLIRUP 

FRQVHFYHQW  FX HD vQV L I U  DVSHULW L H[SULPkQG vQWUR IRUP  VWLOL]DW  HYROX LD XQXL IHQRPHQ vQ

GHFXUVXOXQHLSHULRDGHvQGHOXQJDWH

2 OHJH FYDVLJHQHUDO  GH HYROX LH D IHQRPHQHORU GLQ QDWXU  L VRFLHWDWH SRDWH IL SXV  vQ

HYLGHQ  GH FXUED ORJLVWLF  $VWIHO GH HYROX LL vQWkOQLP DWXQFL FkQG XUP ULP vQ WLPS QLYHOXO

YkQ] ULORU XQXL SURGXV SH SLD D LQWHUQ  QXP UXO SRSXOD LHL XQHL UL JHQHUDOL]DUHD XQHL QRL

WHKQRORJLLvQSURGXF LHFRQVXPXOvQFD]XOXQXLQRXSURGXVSHSLD 

111
 )XQF LDORJLVWLF UHSUH]LQW XQPRGHODOFUHWHULLFDUHGHIDSWLQFOXGHPDLPXOWHWHQGLQ HvQ

VXFFHVLXQH$VWIHOvQSULPDID] HYROX LDSRDWHILVFKL DW SULQWURGUHDSW SHQWUXFDDSRLFUHWHUHD

V GHYLQ H[SRQHQ LDO SkQ vQSUHDMPDSXQFWXOXLGHLQIOH[LXQH

Q FRQWLQXDUH HYROX LD DPLQWHWH GH R IXQF LH VHPLORJDULWPLF  LDU vQ SDUWHD ILQDO  SXWHP

DSHOD OD XQ SROLQRP GH JUDGXO GRL Q UDSRUW FX HYROX LD IHQRPHQXOXL vQ WLPS SXWHP DYHD vQ YHGHUH

L DOWH PRGHOH HYROXWLYH UHGDWH SULQ IXQF LL QHOLQLDUH vQ YHGHUHD H[SULP ULL VWLOL]DWH D WUDLHFWRULHL

HYROXWLYH Q YHGHUHD IDFLOLW ULL FDOFXOHORU VH UHFRPDQG  SHQWUX PDMRULWDWHD IXQF LLORU QHOLQLDUH

WUDQVIRUPDUHDvQYDULDQWDOLQLDUL]DW 

$VWIHOGDF HYROX LDXQXLSURFHVHVWHFRUHFWGHVFULV GHUHOD LD


\ = D + E + X 
W


QORFXLQG = ] VHDMXQJHODIRUPDOLQLDU 
W

\ = D + E] + X 

 Q FD]XO HYROX LHL GHVFULVH GH XQ SROLQRP GH JUDG PDL PDUH GHFkW XQX GH H[HPSOX
 
\ = D + EW + FW + X  VHvQORFXLHWHW ]FHHDFHFRQGXFHOD

\ = D + EW + F] + X 

 QFD]XOIXQF LHLORJDULWPLFHDYkQGXUP WRDUHDIRUP 

ORJ \ = D + E ORJ W + X 

QORFXLQGSH ORJ \ = Z  ORJ W = ]  VHDMXQJHODIRUPDOLQLDU 

Z = D + E] + X 

 )RUPXOHOH XWLOL]DWH SUHVXSXQ H[LVWHQ D XQHL UHOD LL IXQF LRQDOH GH WLSXO \ = I W  

'HSHQGHQ D YDULDELOHL \ GH HYROX LD WLPSXOXL W     WUHEXLH vQ HOHDV  vQ VHQVXO F  \

GHSLQGH GH XQ DQVDPEOX GH IDFWRUL D F URU HYROX LH vQ GHFXUVXO WLPSXOXL SRDWH IL VLQWHWL]DW  GH

FUHWHUHDvQSURJUHVLHDULWPHWLF DYDULDELOHLW

 7HQGLQ D RE LQXW  vQ FD]XO XQHL FRUHFWH VSHFLILF UL D PRGHOXOXL UHSUH]LQW  R HYROX LH vQ

PHGLH R PHGLH vQ PLFDUH 9DORULOH HPSLULFH \    VH VLWXHD]  vQ MXUXO WHQGLQ HL GHVFULLQG IOXFWXD LL

VLVWHPDWLFH DIHFWDWH HYHQWXDO GH SHUWXUED LH vQ FD]XO HYROX LLORU FX VH]RQDOLWDWHVDXFLFOLFLWDWHVDX

VLPSOHDEDWHULGHWLSDOHDWRUFDXUPDUHDDF LXQLLIDFWRULORUDFFLGHQWDOL

 ([WUDSRODUHD WHQGLQ HL SHQWUX SHULRDGH YLLWRDUH FD GH DOWIHO L LQWHUSRODUHD YDORULORU DEVHQWH

GLQ FDGUXO VHULHL FURQRORJLFH LPSOLF  DFFHSWDUHD LSRWH]HL FRQVHUY ULL GLQDPLFLL DQVDPEOXOXL GH

IDFWRULFDUHLQIOXHQ HD] YDULDELODHIHFW

 Q YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL SDUDPHWULORU SRDWH IL XWLOL]DW  0&003 'DWRULW  HYROX LHL FX R UD LH

FRQVWDQW  D YDULDELOHL WLPS VH UHFRPDQG  vQGHRVHEL GDF  IXQF LD HVWH SROLQRPLDO  QXPHURWDUHD

FHORU Q SHULRDGH DVWIHO vQFkW W =   $VWIHO SHQWUX Q LPSDU W =         

UHVSHFWLY SHQWUX Q SDU W =  ; ; ; ; ; ;  $FHDVW  QRWD LH FRQGXFH OD

VLPSOLILFDUHD IRUPXOHORU GH HVWLPDUH D SDUDPHWULORU Q FD]XO IXQF LHL OLQLDUH  \   = D    D W  X  

UHOD LLOHLGHYLQ

\ W

W
D =        

Q

\ W
W
W
!
D =        

(W )


 QFHOHFHXUPHD] QHSURSXQHPV H[HPSOLILF PPRGDOLWDWHDGHGHWHUPLQDUHDWHQGLQ HLDWkW

SHQWUX FD]XO vQ FDUH VH DFFHSW  YDULDQWD OLQLDU  SULYLQG HYROX LD FXUVXOXL GH VFKLPE )LJXUD 

FkW L SHQWUX FD]XO QHOLQLDU SULYLQG HYROX LD GDWRULHL H[WHUQH FD] vQ FDUH DGRSW P IXQF LD

VHPLORJDULWPLF  \ = D + E ORJ W + X 5H]XOWDWHOHSUHOLPLQDUHVXQWUHGDWHvQWDEHOXOGHPDLMRV

112


7DEHOXO

7HQGLQ DOLQLDU  \ = D
+E W 

W \ \W W \ 

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

7RWDO    


=
D =  




E = =  


7DEHOXO

= D
7HQGLQ DQHOLQLDU  \ + E ORJ W 

W ORJW \ 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

= - 
D

E =  
#
 Q FD]XO SROLQRPXOXL GH JUDGXO GRL \ " = D% + D$ W + D# W + X"  VH DMXQJH vQ XUPD DQXO ULL

 
GHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL SHQWUX H[SUHVLD PLQ \ -D -D W -D W   OD
W   
W


XUP WRUXOVLVWHPGHHFXD LLvQFRQGL LLOHvQFDUH W = W =  

113
 

QD


+ D
 W = \

W
W W

\ W


W W D
W
D = \ =     
  

W W W

  
D W W
+D = W \
 

W
W W W

6LVWHPXOSHUPLWHRE LQHUHDHVWLPD LLORUFXXQQXP UUHGXVGHFDOFXOH

Q FD]XO IXQF LLORU QHOLQLDUHFDUHDXGHYHQLWOLQLDUHvQXUPDXQRUWUDQVIRUP ULVH LQHVHDPD

HYLGHQWGHQDWXUDWUDQVIRUP ULORUHIHFWXDWHSURFHGkQGXVHvQFRQVHFLQ 

 QFHHDFHSULYHWHIXQF LDORJLVWLF PHQ LRQ PF HDGHVFULHVFKHPDWLFHYROX LDXQXLQXP U

PDUHGHIHQRPHQHLSURFHVHvQGHRVHELvQVLWXD LLOHvQFDUHLSRWH]DDGPLWHULLXQXLPHGLXvQFKLVGH

GHVI XUDUH D FUHWHULL HVWH SODX]LELO  0RGHOXO ORJLVWLF SRDWH IL H[SULPDW vQ PDL PXOWH YDULDQWH

GLQWUHFDUHPHQ LRQ P

 &

= D
+ EF
       

\

XQGH

DEF SDUDPHWULL

W 

D
=
\ ) * + (* '        
+ H

XQGH

W Q

D SDUDPHWUXUHSUH]HQWkQGOLPLWDVXSHULRDU
, GHFUHWHUH

E SDUDPHWUXH LQGLF SR]L LDFXUEHLvQUDSRUWFXD[DWLPSXOXL

F SDUDPHWUXFDUHH[SULP SDQWDFXUEHLDEF!

 9DULDQWD  HVWH XWLOL]DW  FX SUHF GHUH vQ VWXGLLOH HFRQRPLFH L GHPRJUDILFH 9LWH]D GH

FUHWHUH H[SULPDW  GH SULPD GHULYDW  D IXQF LHL GHVFULV  GH UHOD LD  HVWH SURSRU LRQDO  FX

UDSRUWXO FD 3XQFWXO GH LQIOH[LXQH D FXUEHL HVWH GH FRRUGRQDWH EFD Q YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL

SDUDPHWULORU D E L F HVWH XWLOL]DW  ILH 0&003 ILH PHWRGD SXQFWHORU HFKLGLVWDQWH $FHDVW  GLQ

XUP  PHWRG  SUHVXSXQH VHJPHQWDUHD VHULHL FURQRORJLFH vQ WUHL S U L HJDOH GHILQLQG GLQ ILHFDUH R

YDORDUH FDUDFWHULVWLF  YDORDUHD GH PLMORF  \ \ \ 'DF  DYHP vQ YHGHUH F  UHOD LD 

IDFHSRVLELO HJDOLWDWHD
/ 0 -. D - \ D - \
  H =  E - FW = OQ      
\ \

DWXQFLvQORFXLQGYDULDELOD\FXYDORULOHFHORUWUHLYDULDQWHRE LQHP

D - \ 
SHQWUXPRPHQWXOW  E = OQ      
\ 

D - \  
 SHQWUXPRPHQWXOW N E - FN = OQ     
\  

D - \  
SHQWUXPRPHQWXOW N E -  FN = OQ    
\  

XQGH 1
N GLVWDQ DvQWUHYDORULOHFDUDFWHULVWLFH  2
 (JDOLW LOHIRUPHD] XQVLVWHPGHWUHLHFXD LLFXWUHLQHFXQRVFXWH 

 
3

QWUDGHY U FHD GHD GRXD GHULYDW  D IXQF LHL VH DQXOHD]  SHQWUX W = E  LDU H[SUHVLD  SHQWUX W = E  F
 F  HVWH

  
HJDO FX D

114


 (YROX LD XQXL SURFHV HFRQRPLF SH R WUDLHFWRULH GH WLS 6 SRDWH HYLWD ID]D ILQDO  GH VWDJQDUH

XUPDW  GH VF GHUHD GH QLYHO SULQ DWUDJHUHD XQRU QRL IDFWRUL LQRYD LL vQ WHKQRORJLH IDFLOLW L OD

FXPS UDUH LQWUDUHD SH QRL SLH H HWF FDUH V  UHODQVH]H SURFHVXO SH R WUDLHFWRULH FDUH UHLD OD R DOW 

VFDU  HYROX LD DQWHULRDU  6XFFHVLXQHD GH DVWIHO GH IXQF LL ORJLVWLFH GHVI XUDWH OD QLYHOH WRW PDL

vQDOWHHVWHGHVFULV GHDDQXPLW &85% 1) 85 72$5(2DVWIHOGHUHSUH]HQWDUHGHVFULHL

SHUPLWH H[WUDSRODUHD XQHL HYROX LL GHVI XUDWH SH FRDPD XQHL FXUEH GH WLS 6 QI XU WRDUHD HVWH

DVWIHO R WDQJHQW  FRPXQ  WXWXURU FXUEHORU GHVI XUDWH vQ VXFFHVLXQHD vQWUXQ LQWHUYDO GH WLPS GH

UHJXO vQGHOXQJDW2SUH]HQWDUHIRUPDO DXQHLDVWIHOGHHYROX LLDUHvQYHGHUHH[LVWHQ DXQHLIDPLOLL

GHFXUEHIW\a a$)LHFDUHFXUE HVWHGHILQLW SH, 4 >D 4 E 4 @QXQHDS UDWGLVMXQFWLYH

I W \  a  = 
 'HILQLP vQI XU WRDUHD DFHVWRU FXUEH IXQF LD C5 ,5 5  DVWIHO FD 

PD[ \

3UREOHPD SRDWH IL SXV  vQ FRQWH[WXO GHWHUPLQ ULL XQXL H[WUHP FX OHJ WXUL SHQWUX FDUH FRQVWUXLP

ODJUDQJLDQXO 

/W\al \lW\a     

 (JDODUHD FX ]HUR D GHULYDWHORU vQ UDSRUW FX \ a L l UHSUH]LQW  FRQGL LD QHFHVDU  SHQWUX

DWLQJHUHD XQXL H[WUHP 8OWLPHOH GRX  HFXD LL OD FDUH VH DMXQJH UHSUH]LQW  XQ VLVWHP FDUH LQFOXGH

SULQWUHVROX LLLSHFHOHGHVWLQDWHUH]ROY ULLSUREOHPHLGHPD[LPFDUHQHVW vQDWHQ LH

 ([WUDSRODUHD SH FXUED vQI XU WRDUH D IRVW DSOLFDW  vQGHRVHEL vQ WHKQRORJLH GHL HFRQRPLD

SULQSURFHVHOHGHWUDQ]L LHHYROX LDFHUHULLLQRYD LDvQODQVDUHDLUHODQVDUHDSURGXVHORUHWFRIHU XQ

GRPHQLXGHVFKLVFHUFHW ULLLVWXGLLORUDSOLFDWLYHSULQDFHDVW PHWRG 

 7HQGLQ D LQGLIHUHQW GH IXQF LD XWLOL]DW  VH RE LQH vQORFXLQG SDUDPHWULL FX HVWLPDWRULL

RE LQX LSULQ0&003VDXDOWHPHWRGHLDWULEXLQGYDORULvQVXFFHVLXQHYDULDELOHLW

3UHYL]LXQHD UH]XOWDW  FD R H[WUDSRODUH D WHQGLQ HL VH RE LQH VLPLODU GDU YDORULOH YDULDELOHL W

VXQWSURLHFWDWHvQYLLWRU$VWIHOSHQWUXPRGHOXOOLQLDURE LQHPXUP WRDUHOHYDORULSURJQR]DWHSULYLQG

FXUVXO GH VFKLPE PHGLX OXQDU vQ OXQLOH LDQXDULH IHEUXDULH PDUWLH L DSULOLH   OHL

OHLOHLOHL

Q FHHD FH SULYHWH PRGHOXO QHOLQLDU SUHGLF LLOH SULYLQG GDWRULD H[WHUQ  SHQWUX DQLL  L

VXQWGHPLOOHLLUHVSHFWLYPLOOHL

 3UHGLF LLOH RE LQXWH SULQ H[WUDSRODUH vQ UDSRUW FX VXFFHVLXQHD YDORULORU W VXQW WULEXWDUH

HYROX LHL DQWHULRDUH ILLQG OHJDWH RUJDQLF GH DFHDVWD SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO SDUDPHWULORU $FHVWD HVWH

SULQFLSDOXO PRWLY SHQWUX FDUH SURJQR]HOH GH DFHVW JHQ VXQW XQHRUL HWLFKHWDWH GUHSW SUHYL]LXQL

QDLYH VDX JHQHUHD]  DSUHFLHUL VFHSWLFH FRUHVSXQ] WRU F URUD HFRQRPLWLL UHXHVF V  HODERUH]H

SUHYL]LXQL SULYLQG WUHFXWXO 'DU GDF  DYHP vQ YHGHUH VSHFLILFXO HYROX LHL XQXL QXP U PDUH GH

YDULDELOH HFRQRPLFH QX VH SRDWH QHJD IDSWXO F  vQ FRQGL LL QRUPDOH GH GHVI XUDUH SUHGRPLQDQ D

IDFWRULORU FDUH DF LRQHD]  vQ VHQVXO FRQVHUY ULL WHQGLQ HL IDFH FD H[WUDSRO ULOH SULYLQG vQGHRVHEL

YLLWRUXODSURSLDWV ILHvQJHQHUDOFRQILUPDWHGHUHDOLWDWHQVLWXD LLOHvQFDUHVHSUHFRQL]HD] VDXVH

SUHY G VFKLPE UL LPSRUWDQWH vQ UkQGXO IDFWRULORU FH GHWHUPLQ  IHQRPHQXO \ SURJQR]HOH ED]DWH SH

H[WUDSRO UL QX VXQW LQGLFDWH vQWUXFkW FRQGL LLOH GLQ WUHFXW QX VH UHJ VHVF ILH L OD PRGXO JHQHUDO vQ

YLLWRU

      

6
 Q XUPD XQRU DUWLILFLL DOJHEULFH FDUH VH UHIHU  OD HOLPLQDUHD QHFXQRVFXWHL F vQ XUPD VF GHULL SURGXVXOXL FHOHL GHD

GRXD HFXD LL PXOWLSOLFDWH FX  GLQ FHD GHD WUHLD HFXD LH HOLPLQDUHD QHFXQRVFXWHL E GLQ VLVWHPXO IRUPDW GH UH]XOWDWXO

DQWHULRULHFXD LDLL]RODUHDQHFXQRVFXWHLDFDUHvQXUPDDQWLORJDULWP ULLHYLGHQ LD] RHFXD LHGHJUDGXOGRL

5 G FLQDSR]LWLY DHFXD LHLGLQXUP HVWH

7
 \   \    \    - \  > \   + \   @
 VROX LH FDUH SULQ vQORFXLUHD SDUDPHWUXOXL D GLQ HFXD LD  IDFH
=
D 7
\   \    - \ 

 0LK LO  1 
SRVLELO  RE LQHUHD HVWLPD LHL SHQWUX E UHVSHFWLY vQORFXLQG vQ HFXD LD  RE LQHP HVWLPDWRUXO F

0DWHPDWLFLVSHFLDOHDSOLFDWHvQHFRQRPLHYROOLWR$6(%XFXUHWL

115
 6H]RQDOLWDWHD

6H]RQDOLWDWHD UHSUH]LQW  DFHD FRPSRQHQW  VLVWHPDWLF  FH VH PDQLIHVW  SULQ RVFLOD LL GH

SHULRDG  PDL PLF  VDX HJDO  FX XQ DQ UHSHWDELOH vQ WLPS 'HQXPLUHD GH VH]RQDOLWDWH VHPQDOHD] 

FDX]D SULQFLSDO  D DFHVWRUIOXFWXD LLFDUHFRQVW vQVFKLPEDUHDDQRWLPSXOXL3ULQH[WHQVLHDFHVWJHQ

GH IOXFWXD LL VH UHIHU  L OD LQWHUYDOH PDL PLFL GHFkW XQ VH]RQ WULPHVWUX FXP DU IL OXQD VDX

V SW PkQD Q DFHVW FD] HOH VDU SXWHD GDWRUD L DOWRUIDFWRULGHFkWFHLFOLPDWHULFLLDVWIHOGHIDFWRUL

SRW IL WUDGL LD YDFDQ HOH FRODUH SODWD VDODULLORU UHSDXVXO GXPLQLFDO DOWHUQDQ D ]LQRDSWH FLFOXULOH

ELRORJLFHHWF

 'LQSXQFWGHYHGHUHDOSRVLELOLW LORUGHP VXUDUHVH]RQDOLWDWHDVHPDQLIHVW VXEIRUPDXQRU

DEDWHUL GH OD PHGLH FDUH UHYLQ VLVWHPDWLF $FHVW DVSHFW GH RVFLOD LH vQ MXUXO XQXL QLYHO GH UHIHULQ 

PHGLDVHREVHUY PDLFODUODVHULLOHVWD LRQDUH

 $VWIHOvQYDULDQWDDGLWLY PRGHOXOSRDWHILIRUPXODWFDRVXP GHPHGLL

\ 89 = \ + V9 + X 8 9       

   XQGH

L PDQL

M KVH]RDQH

\
;:
;
\ : =

K

V: = \ : - \

 

([HPSOXSULYLQGPRGXOGHHYDOXDUHDVH]RQDOLW LL

6HFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHGDWHSULYLQGHYROX LDSURGXF LHLGHFLPHQWvQ5RPkQLDvQDQLLL

FLIUHURWXQMLWHUHSUH]HQWkQGVXWHGHPLLWRQHVHULDILLQGVWD LRQDU vQFHLGRLDQL

7DEHOXO

 

7ULP , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9

3URGXF LD        

0HGLDWULPHVWULDO HVWH \ =  



V<  DEDWHULGHODPHGLHDOHPHGLLORUWULPHVWULDOH

 + 
V = \ - \ = -  = - V =  V =  V = - 
     


 2VFLOD LD VH]RQLHU  SXULILFDW  GH DEDWHULOH vQWkPSO WRDUH X = >  UH]XOW  DVWIHO

\ =  -  =  \ =  +  =  \ =  \ =   YDORUL FDUH VH UHSHW  DQ GH
   

DQ

 0DL IUHFYHQWH VXQW VLWXD LLOH vQ FDUH VHULD HVWH QHVWD LRQDU  LQFOXGH L WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO  Q

DVWIHO GH VLWXD LL GDWHOH HPSLULFH VH UDSRUWHD]  OD WHQGLQ  PHGLD vQ PLFDUH &DOFXOHOH GHFXUJ

FRQIRUPXQXLDOJRULWPGHVFULVvQWDEHOXO

 ([HPSOX

6H FXQRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH SULYLQG SURGXF LD GH EHUH RE LQXW  vQ GRL DQL VXFFHVLYL vQ

5RPkQLDYDORULURWXQMLWHUHSUH]HQWkQGVXWHGHPLLGHKHFWROLWUL

 7HQGLQ D FD L YDORULOH H[WUDSRODWH DOH WHQGLQ HL YH]L 7DEHOXO  FRORDQD  DX UH]XOWDW

vQXUPDDSOLF ULLPRGHOXOXLOLQLDU

 \ ? =  - W 

 W = - -  -  -      

116
 SHQWUXFDUH



D = = 


 
 -

D = = -



QFHSULYHWHVH]RQDOLWDWHDDXIRVW FDOFXODWH V < UHSUH]HQWkQGPHGLDYDORULORUWULPHVWUXOXLM

GLQ DQXO L L DQXO L  $VWIHO V =   +    =   0HQ LRQ P F  YDORULOH WULPHVWUXOXL M

@A
\
SHQWUX FDUH VH FDOFXOHD]  DVIHO GH PHGLL UHSUH]LQW  UH]XOWDWH DOH UDSRUWXOXL @A  FRORDQD  3ULQ

\

FDOFXOXO YDORULORU V <  VD DMXQV OD HYDOXDUHD LQWHQVLW LL VH]RQDOLW LL vQ XUPD XQXL SULP ILOWUX

5DSRUWkQG DFHVWH SULPH HYDOX UL OD PHGLD ORU V =    DX UH]XOWDW ,1',&,, '(

6(=21$/,7$7( GXS  XQ DO GRLOHD ILOWUX FRORDQD  Q XOWLPD FRORDQ  D WDEHOXOXL VDX RE LQXW

YDORUL FDUH LQFOXG DPEHOH FRPSRQHQWH VLVWHPDWLFH WUHQGVH]RQDOLWDWH FD XUPDUH D XWLOL] ULL

PRGHOXOXLGHWLSPXOWLSOLFDWLY

7DEHOXO

$QXO 7ULP 3URGXF LD 'HWHUPLQDUHD 'HWHUPLQDUHDVH]RQDOLW LL 6HULD

VXWHPLLKO WHQGLQ HL DMXVWDW 

L =  P  M =  K 

B
  \ W W \W \  \ V LM VC \
=\ L 
LM LM LM M
V = L LC = 
LM
\ V = V
M
LM
P

 

          

 ,         

L  ,,         

 ,,,         

 ,9         

 ,         

L  ,,         

 ,,,         

 ,9         

7RWDO         

D
VG
G
F E 
V = = =  
 

8QLQWHUHVDSDUWHvOSUH]LQW VH]RQDOLWDWHDvQYDULDQWDvQFDUHHDHVWHLQWURGXV vQPRGHOSULQ

LQWHUPHGLXOYDULDELOHLYDULDELOHORUELQDUH

0RGHOXO GHVFULH UROXO VH]RQDOLW LL ILH SULQ SUH]HQWDUHD D SDWUX HFXD LL GLIHULWH

\H = DJ + D I ; H XQGH; YDULDELODQXPHULF ILHFDUHILLQGVSHFLILF VH]RQXOXLVFD]vQFDUH

SDUDPHWUXODSUHLDLHIHFWXOVH]RQDOLW LLILHSULQWURHFXD LHGHIRUPD

 \ =D + D ; +E 6 +E 6 +E 6 + X    
       

XQGH 6K   VH]RQXO M YDU  WRDPQ  LDUQ  FX YDORULOH XQX FD] vQ FDUH FHOHODOWH GRX  VH]RDQH GHYLQ

]HURVDX]HUR

6HPQLILFD LD VH]RQDOLW LL SHQWUX HYROX LD YDULDELOHL \ SRDWH IL YHULILFDW  SULQ WHVWDUHD

LSRWH]HLQXOHE
B EL EM 

0HQ LRQ P F  vQ YHGHUHD HYLW ULL QHGHWHUPLQ ULL vQ FD]XOXWLOL] ULL0&003VHUHQXQ 

ODXQXOGLQWUHFHOHSDWUXVH]RDQH

117


0RGHOXO&DORWGHDERUGDUHVLPXOWDQ DWUHQGXOXLLVH]RQDOLW LL

QWUXFkWSURFHVHOHHFRQRPLFHQHVWD LRQDUHLFXVH]RQDOLWDWHSUH]LQW RVFLOD LLVLVWHPDWLFHSH

IRQGXO XQHL WHQGLQ H HYROXWLYH L vQ LQWHUDF LXQH FX HD VD F XWDW FD L UHSUH]HQW ULOH SULQ PRGHOH

HFRQRPHWULFH SULYLQG DVWIHO GH HYROX LL V  ILH FRQIRUPH DFHVWHL UHDOLW L 2 DVWIHO GH UHSUH]HQWDUH R

FRQVWLWXLH PRGHOXO HODERUDW GH SURIHVRUXO IUDQFH] *HUDUG &DORW ,SRWH]HOH DYXWH vQ YHGHUH OD

GHILQLUHDPRGHOXOXLVXQW

 WHQGLQ DJHQHUDO HVWHOLQLDU 

 VH]RQDOLWDWHD HVWH VWD LRQDU  RVFLOD LLOH S VWUHD]  SHULRDGHOH vQ FDUH DSDU YkUIXUL L

F GHUL N
 SHUWXUED LDXUPHD] RGLVWULEX LHQRUPDO 

&RQVWUXLUHD PRGHOXOXL DUH GUHSW SXQFW GH SOHFDUH IRUPD OLQLDU  \ O = DQ + D P W + X O 

6H]RQDOLWDWHD HVWH LQWURGXV  vQ PRGHO SULQ GLYL]DUHD SDUDPHWUXOXL D R  vQ HOHPHQWH FDUH VH UHIHU  OD

RUGRQDWDODRULJLQHSULYLQGWUHQGXO$LFRQVWDQWHOHVK FkWHXQDSHQWUXILHFDUHVXESHULRDG DQXDO 

Q FH SULYHWH YDULDELOD W DFHDVWD GHYLQH XQ DJUHJDW FDUH SHUPLWH GHUXODUHD WLPSXOXL SH

WULPHVWUHOXQLLDQL$FHDVWDHVWHVLPEROL]DW FXMLKXQGHM KSHULRDGHVXEDQXDOHL 

PDQL

0RGHOXOVHSUH]LQW DVWIHO

 \U V ST = $ + D W  M + LK  + V U + XU V ST     

 (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU SRDWH IL I FXW  XWLOL]kQG 0&003 (YLGHQW vQ XUPD DQXO ULL

GHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH SUHVXSXV  GH DFHDVW  PHWRG  VH DMXQJH OD XQ QXP U GH K HFXD LL 3HQWUX

Z Y
IDFLOLWDUHD RE LQHULL UDSLGH D HVWLPDWRULORU $  D  V Z  V   V X  UHFRPDQG P XWLOL]DUHD UHOD LLORU GH
[
FDOFXOODFDUHVDDMXQVvQXUPDXQRUDUWLILFLLDOJHEULFHHIHFWXDWHDVXSUDVLVWHPXOXLGHKHFXD LL 

 
\
&DORW*&RXUVGHVWDWLVWLTXHGHVFULSWLYH'XQRG3DULV
] 
&RUHVSXQ] WRU 0&003 PLQLPL]DUHD H[SUHVLHL  * = >\ - D  M + LK  - w @  XQGH w^ = $ + V^ 
LM 
LM

SUHVXSXQH DQXODUHD GHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL $QXODUHD GHULYDWHORU vQ UDSRUW FX
` `
w _   M = K +   FRQGXFH OD HJDOLWDWHD D c
b `  M + LK  + Pv =
b` \ a   GH XQGH vQ XUPD vPS U LULL OD P
a a

  e
UH]XOW  F  w
M
= \
M
-D
  M + LK   QWUXFkW w d $V  d L FRQVLGHUkQG $=
e w  RE LQHP
P L K

PK + 
$ = \ - Df XQGH \   PHGLD JHQHUDO  LQkQG VHDPD GH H[SUHVLLOH DQWHULRDUH SULYLQG wg  L $ UH]XOW  F 


K + 
= \ - \ - M -
h
Vi i D 


 'DF  DYHP vQ YHGHUH F  0&003 SUHVXSXQH PLQLPL]DUHD H[SUHVLHL

[\ )]
P - K

($ (M + LK ) + V
 
PLQ X = PLQ - + D L GDF  LQHP VHDPD GH HJDOLWDWHD 
M + LK M + LK  M
L =  M =


wk = \k - Dl j (M
+ LK ) DMXQJHPODH[SUHVLD
P
r
nr n n 
PLQ X m op = PLQ n \ m op - \ - D
s (M + LK )+ D
s (M + LK ) 
o o
P
q

GHXQGHUH]XOW IRUPXODXWLO HVWLP ULLSDUDPHWUXOXL D t YH]LUHOD LD

118
 z u w

w
D = y
{v x
L \ { - \      
P P - 

XQGH

\  PHGLDVXESHULRDGHLvQDQXOL
L

\  PHGLDXQHLVXESHULRDGH

PK + 

$= \ - | 
D      


K + 
  Vi = \ i - \ - M - D h     


XQGH

\
M
PHGLDVXESHULRDGHLMLQGLIHUHQWGHDQ

([HPSOX

8WLOL]kQG GDWHOH SULYLQG SURGXF LD GH EHUH  YH]L WDEHOXO   FRORDQD  SHQWUX DFHDVW 

VHULH K   WULPHVWUH L   DQL GDWHOH VXQW SUH]HQWDWH vQWUXQ WDEHO FX GXEO  LQWUDUH %X\V%DORW

DVWIHOvQFkWV SXWHPRE LQHUDSLGPHGLLOHWULPHVWULDOH



D = [ +   -    ] = - 


 +

$ =   - (-  ) =   


V =  -   - ( -  )(-  ) = -

V
=   
V ~ V}
=    = - 

7DEHOXO

7ULP

$QL
 , ,, ,,, ,9 7RWDO \ 
L

      

      

7RWDO      

    

\  \ = 
M

 $JUHJDWXOFRPSRQHQWHORUVLVWHPDWLFHWUHQGVH]RQDOLWDWHUH]XOW DVWIHO

119
  M + LK  + V
\ = $ +D =  +  -  +    +  - = 
  

\ =  +  -  +  = 



\ = 


\ = 


\ =  +  -  +    +  - = 


\ = 


\ = 


\ = 


&LFOLFLWDWHD

Q FHHD FH SULYHWH RVFLOD LLOH LQWHUDQXDOH FLFOLFH FDUDFWHUXO ORU VLVWHPDWLF HVWH PDL SX LQ

HYLGHQWvQVHQVXOF DWkWLQWHUYDOHOHODFDUHRVFLOD LLOHVHPDQLIHVW FkWLLQWHQVLWDWHDORUSUH]LQW R

UHODWLY  LQFRQVWDQ  vQ GHFXUVXO WLPSXOXL 'HVLJXU DFHVW VSHFLILF DO HYROX LHL FDUH LQFOXGH R

VXILFLHQW  GR]  GH DOHDWRULX vQFkW IDFH GLILFLO  vQFRUVHWDUHD vQ PRGHOH SUHGLFWLYH VDU GDWRUD

IDFWRULORU JHQHUDWRUL GH DVWIHO GH RVFLOD LL )DFWRULL FHL PDL LPSRUWDQ L FDUH LQIOXHQ HD]  FLFOXO

DIDFHULORU VXQW OHJD L GH UHvQQRLUHD PLMORDFHORU GH SURGXF LH IOXFWXD LL vQ GRPHQLXO LQYHQ LLORU

FRQIOLFWHOHVRFLDOHSVLKRORJLDSRSXOD LHLHWF

2 HYDOXDUH QXPHULF  D LQWHQVLW LL YDOXOXL GH UHFHVLXQH VDX D FHOXL GH UHYLJRUDUH L

H[SDQVLXQHHFRQRPLF SRDWHILRE LQXW DVWIHO

F  YDORUL QLYHODWH L GHVH]RQDOL ]DWH

L =    
W
QLYHOH DOH WHQG LQW HL

 6HPQDO PGHDVHPHQHDYDULDQWD
\
- \
L =       
\

XQGH \ WUHQG

1XP U WRUXO UHOD LHL  SUHVXSXQH HOLPLQDUHD SHUWXUED LHL XWLOL]kQG PHGLL PRELOH

IXQF LL SROLQRPLDOH HWF SUHFXP L HOLPLQDUHD VH]RQDOLW LL vQ LSRWH]D vQ FDUH DFHDVWD H[LVW 

RSHUD LXQH FDUH SUHVXSXQH GLYL]DUHD YDORULORU FDUDFWHULVWLFH OD LQGLFLLGHVH]RQDOLWDWHQDFHVWIHOOD

QXP U WRUXO UDSRUWXOXL  DSDU YDORUL FDUH LQFOXG GRDU WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO  L FRPSRQHQWD
FLFOLF 

5DSRUWkQG DFHVW DJUHJDW WUHQGFLFOLFLWDWH OD WUHQG UH]XOW  LQGLFLL GH FLFOLFLWDWH L  (L SRW IL

VXSUDXQLWDUL PDUFkQG H[SDQVLXQHD HFRQRPLF  VDX VXEXQLWDUL VHPQDOkQG LQWHQVLWDWHD UHFHVLXQLL

HFRQRPLFH

7HQGLQ DVHULDLQWHJUDW VHULLOHFRLQWHJUDWHLLPSOLFD LLOHDFHVWRUD

DVXSUDDQDOL]HLUHJUHVLHL

 3UREOHPD H[LVWHQ HL WHQGLQ HL JHQHUDOH vQ VHULD GH GDWH LQWHUHVHD]  QX QXPDL VXE DVSHFWXO

SURJQR]HL H[WUDSRO ULL HYROX LHL vQ WLPS FL L GLQ SHUVSHFWLYD DFXUDWH HL SDUDPHWULORU GH UHJUHVLH

HVWLPD LFDLGLQSXQFWGHYHGHUHDODQDOL]HLHFKLOLEUXOXLHFRQRPLFSHWHUPHQOXQJ

 Q HFRQRPLH PDMRULWDWHD VHULLORU HFRQRPLFH SULYLQG LQGLFDWRULL LPSRUWDQ L SUH XULOH FXUVXO

GH VFKLPE PDVD PRQHWDU  FRQVXPXO H[SRUWXO HWF SUH]LQW  WHQGLQ  $VWIHO GH VHULL VXQW

FRQVLGHUDWH 1(67$ ,21$5( )DSWXO F  WHUPHQLL VHULHL FURQRORJLFH DX vQ JHQHUDO WHQGLQ H GH

FUHWHUHVDXGHVF GHUHvQGHFXUVXOWLPSXOXLIDFHFDPHGLDLUXOXLYDORULORUOXL\ V GLIHUHvQIXQF LH

120
GH PRPHQWXO W GHODFDUHFRQVLGHU PF vQFHSHVHULD0DLPXOWFKLDULGLVSHUVLDLFRYDULDQ DVXQW

GHSHQGHQWHGHYDULDELODWLPSW

 6(5,$ 67$ ,21$5  HVWH DFHD VHULH DOH F UHL YDORUL RVFLOHD]  PDL PXOW VDX PDL SX LQ

DOHDWRUvQMXUXOXQXLQLYHOGHUHIHULQ PHGLDILLQGGHFLvQWURVWDUHGHHFKLOLEUX0DLSUHFLVVHULD

VWD LRQDU  HVWH UH]XOWDWXO XQXL 352&(6 672&+$67,& 67$ ,21$5 SHQWUX FDUH PHGLD L

GLVSHUVLD VXQW FRQVWDQWH LQGLIHUHQW GH PRPHQWXO GH OD FDUH FRQVLGHU P F  vQFHSH VHULD
LDU
FRYDULDQ D GHSLQGH QXPDL GH GLVWDQ D ODJXO GLQWUH XQLW LOH GH WLPS SHQWUXFDUHHVWHFDOFXODW >@

$DGDU

0 \  = \        
W

  
s = 0 >\ - 0 \ @ =s     
\  W W

FRY \ \  = 0 >\ - 0 \ @> \ - 0 \ @  

W W +N W W W +N W

5HYHQLQG OD VHULLOH QHVWD LRQDUH PHQ LRQ P F  R WLSRORJLH D PDQLIHVW ULL WUHQGXOXL vQ GDWH

HYLGHQ LD] GLVWLQFW

7HQGLQ D GH WLS GHWHUPLQLVW FDUDFWHUL]DW  SULQ IDSWXO F  HVWH LQYDULDELO  XRU GH SUHY ]XW

PHQ LQkQGXVH vQ WLPS DWkW FD GLUHF LH FkW L FD SDQW  (D SRDWH IL LQFOXV  vQ IXQF LD GH UHJUHVLH

FDXQIDFWRUGLVWLQFWVLPEROL]DWFXOLWHUDWDVWIHO 

\ = D + D [ + D W + X 

7HQGLQ DGHWLSVWRFKDVWLFvQVHQVXOF VHPRGLILF SHGLYHUVHOHVHFYHQ HGHWLPS

Q UDSRUW FX PRGDOLWDWHD vQ FDUH HVWH UHFRPDQGDW  HOLPLQDUHD WHQGLQ HL GLQ VHULD GH GDWH

GHRVHELP

6HULL QHVWD LRQDUH GHQXPLWH L VHULL 763 WUHQG VWDWLRQDU\ SURFHVVHV vQ FDUH WUHQGXO VH

UHFRPDQG V ILHHOLPLQDWSULQVF GHUHDDFHVWXLDGLQLUXOGHGDWHHPSLULFHWHUPHQFXWHUPHQ


\ = \ - \ 
W W W

XQGH \ = WHQGLQ D

W

6HULL QHVWD LRQDUH GHQXPLWH VHULL '63 GLIIHUHQFH VWDWLRQDU\ SURFHVVHV vQFDUHWUHQGXOVH

 
UHFRPDQG  V  ILH HOLPLQDW SULQ FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO vQWkL  \ = D\ = \ - \ 
W W W W -

 
HYHQWXDOGHRUGLQXOGRL \ = D\ = D\ - D\ VDXPDLPDUH
W W W W -

 Q OLWHUDWXUD HFRQRPHWULF  GH GDW  PDL UHFHQW  vQWkOQLP VHULL FURQRORJLFH FDUDFWHUL]DWH SULQ

WHUPHQLFD

6(5,( ,17(*5$7   DFHD VHULH QHVWD LRQDU  FDUH SRDWH IL WUDQVIRUPDW  vQWUR VHULH

VWD LRQDU SULQFDOFXOXOGLIHUHQ HORUGHRUGLQXOvQWkLVHULHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQXOvQWkL,

DGLF 

 
\ = D\ = \ - \  LDU GDF  WHQGLQ D QX D IRVW HOLPLQDW  vQ WRWDOLWDWH VH SURFHGHD]  OD
W W W W -

FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO GRL VHULH LQWHJUDW  GH RUGLQXO GRL  ,
  DVWIHO

 
\ = D\ = D\ - D\ HWF
W W W W -

6HULD OD FDUH VH DMXQJH vQ ILQDO vQWUXFkW QX PDL LQFOXGH WHQGLQ  ILLQG GHFL VWD LRQDU  HVWH

FRQVLGHUDW VHULHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQXO]HUR,



6(5,, &2,17(*5$7(  VXQW FRQVLGHUDWH DFHOH VHULL FURQRORJLFH FDUH LQWHJUDWH ILLQG GH

DFHODL RUGLQ DGPLW R FRPELQD LH OLQLDU  FDUH HVWH LQWHJUDW  GH RUGLQ ]HUR VDX vQ RULFH FD] HVWH

LQWHJUDW  GH RUGLQ PDL PLF GHFkW RUGLQXO GH LQWHJUDUH D VHULLORU LQL LDOH $VWIHO vQ FD]XO D GRX 

VHULL [  \  ILHFDUH ILLQG LQWHJUDW  GH RUGLQXO vQWkL GDF  H[LVW  R FRPELQD LH OLQLDU  ] FDUH

SRDWH UH]XOWD DVWIHO ]  \  [  VDX ]  \ [ VDX PDL IUHFYHQW ]  \

 D D [  FDUH HVWH

LQWHJUDW  GH RUGLQXO ]HUR DILUP P F  FHOH GRX  VHULL VXQW FRLQWHJUDWH GH RUGLQXO vQWkL $DGDU

 

$YHPvQYHGHUHVHULLOHVODEVWD LRQDUH

 7HUPHQXOHQJOH]HVFLQWHJUDWHDUHLVHPQLILFD LDGHDFRPSOHWDSULQvQVXPDUHDS U LORUFHHDFHvQDQDOL]DVHULLORUGH

GDWH DU UHSUH]HQWD R PRGDOLWDWH GH D UHFRPSXQH VHULD SULQ vQVXPDUHD SULPXOXL WHUPHQ FX GLIHUHQ HOH GH RUGLQXO ,

UHVSHFWLYDGLIHUHQ HORUGHRUGLQXO,SULQvQVXPDUHDFHORUGHRUGLQXO,,HWF

121
 GDF  \ ,
  [ ,
 L ] ,
 DILUP P F  [ \ &,
  $VWIHO GH VHULL VXQW FDUDFWHUL]DWH FD

ILLQGvQWURUHOD LHGHHFKLOLEUXSHWHUPHQOXQJ

8QLQWHUHVDSDUWHSUH]LQW FRPELQD LDOLQLDU FDUHFRQGXFHODRE LQHUHDYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHX

]  \  D
 D [
 X  FDUDFWHUL]DW  FD ILLQG LQWHJUDW  GH RUGLQ ]HUR QWUR DVWIHO GH VLWXD LH

WHUHQXO HVWH SUHJ WLW SHQWUX R DQDOL]  GH UHJUHVLH GH FDOLWDWH vQ FDUH HVWLPDWRULL SDUDPHWULORU VXQW

FRQVLVWHQ L WHVWXO W L ) RIHULQG UH]XOWDWH LPSRUWDQWH SHQWUX R DVWIHO GH DQDOL]  2 GHILQL LH D

FRLQWHJU ULL DYkQG XQ JUDG PDL PDUH GH JHQHUDOL]DUH HVWH XUP WRDUHD FRPSRQHQWHOH YHFWRUXOXL ; 

VXQW GH RUGLQ E G GDF  WRDWH FRPSRQHQWHOH YHFWRUXOXL ; VXQW LQWHJUDWH GH DFHODL RUGLQ G L GDF 

H[LVW  XQ YHFWRU aa DVWIHO vQFkW YHFWRUXO =  RE LQXW DVWIHO = = a ;  UHSUH]LQW  R VHULH LQWHJUDW 

GHRUGLQGEE!>@9HFWRUXO=HVWHGHQXPLWYHFWRUGHFRLQWHJUDUHUHVSHFWLYGDF FRPELQD LD

OLQLDU  HVWH UHSUH]HQWDW  GH GLIHUHQ D \D D [ SDUDPHWUXO D  SRDWH IL GHQXPLW SDUDPHWUX GH

LQWHJUDUH5HJUHVLDvQV LSHQWUXDVWIHOGHVHULLSRDWHILHWLFKHWDW GUHSWUHJUHVLHGHFRLQWHJUDUHLDU

vQWUHJGHPHUVXOHVWHQXPLW$1$/,= '(&2,17(*5$5(

 3HQWUX PRGHODUHD HFRQRPHWULF  SUH]LQW  LQWHUHV DD FXP DP DU WDW vQGHRVHEL VLWXD LD vQ

FDUHSHQWUXGRX VHULLFRLQWHJUDWHFRPELQD LDOLQLDU \D D [

XHVWHLQWHJUDW GHRUGLQ]HUR

$FHDVWD D FRQGXVODUHPDUFDWKHYDOXDEOHFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKHFRQFHSWVRILQWHJUDWLRQXQLWURRWHWF

LVWRIRUFHXVWRILQGRXWLIWKHUHJUHVVLRQUHVLGXDOVDUHVWDWLRQDU\>@

3HQWUX D vQFDGUD R VHULH FURQRORJLF  vQWUXQD GLQWUH FDWHJRULLOH PHQ LRQDWH VH DSHOHD]  OD

UHSUH]HQW UL SULQ WDEHOH JUDILFH FURQRJUDPH FRUHORJUDPH GDU PDL DOHV OD WHVWHOH VWDWLVWLFH 'LQWUH

PRGDOLW LOH GH YHULILFDUH UHODWLY QXPHURDVH GHVFULVH vQ DUWLFROHOH L F U LOH GH HFRQRPHWULH PDL

UHFHQWHQHUHIHULPvQGHRVHELODDFHOHDFDUHVXQWOHJDWHGLUHFWGHFDOLWDWHDSDUDPHWULORUGHUHJUHVLHGH

DILFRQVLVWHQ L 

 $VWIHOvQYHGHUHDFDUDFWHUL] ULLVHULHLSULQFDOLILFDWLYXOVWD LRQDU VDXQHVWD LRQDU QHSXWHP

ED]D SH FURQRJUDP  L SH )81& ,$ '( $872&25(/$5( r  FDUH H[SULP  LQWHQVLWDWHD

GHSHQGHQ HLGLQWUHYDORULDOHVHULHLDIODWHODRGLVWDQ GHNXQLW LGHWLPS

0 [( \ W - 0  \  )( \
W +N
- 0  \  )] FRY \ \
W +N

= =
W
r 
N
s
(\ W - 0  \ ) (\ W - 0  \ )
  s
0 0 \ \
+N

FRY \  \ 

 QFD]XOSURFHVHORUVWD LRQDUH s =s DVWIHOvQFkW r = VDXPDLVLPSOX
\ \
s
FRYN 
r =        

FRY

 QSUDFWLF SURFHG PODHVWLPDUHDIXQF LHLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHXWLOL]kQGXQHDQWLRQGHQYDORUL

&D XUPDUH VH RE LQ  FRHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U  SHQWUX Q YDORUL LDU UHOD LD JHQHUDO  GH FDOFXO

GHYLQH 

 \ - \  \ - \


U =      

 \ - \

3HQWUXN RE LQHP

Q -

\ - \  \ - \ 
W W +
W =
U = 

Q

\ - \ 
W
W =

 3HQWUXN RE LQHP

 

8QXOGLQWUHPRWLYHOHSHQWUXFDUHQXQHOLPLW PODXQVLQJXUWHVWSHQWUXRSUREOHP VROX LHGDW vOUHSUH]LQW LIDSWXO

F  SDFKHWHOH GH SURJUDPH UHFHQWH LQFOXG R JDP  YDULDW  GH WHVWH vQGHRVHEL SHQWUX DFHODL RELHFWLY DILDWH SULQ

VLPEROXULVDXHWLFKHWHODFRQLFHFDUHPHULW V ILHFXQRVFXWH

122
 Q -

\ - \  \ - \ 
W W +
W =
U = 

Q

\ - \ 
W
W =

 9HULILFDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL FRHILFLHQ LORU GH DXWRFRUHOD LH vQ VHQVXOWHVWXOXLW SRDWHUHSUH]HQWD

XQ FULWHULX GH DSUHFLHUH $VWIHO 7(678/ %$57/(77 VH ED]HD]  SH LGHHD F  vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH

VHULD FURQRORJLF  HVWH SXU DOHDWRDUH FRHILFLHQ LL HVWLPD L GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U  U  U  VXQW


DSUR[LPDWLY QRUPDO GLVWULEXL L GH PHGLH ]HUR L GH GLVSHUVLH s =  &D XUPDUH GDF  DYHP vQ
Q

YHGHUH UHSDUWL LD QRUPDO  UHGXV  VWDQGDUG SXWHP VWDELOL LQWHUYDOXO GH vQFUHGHUH vQ FDUH VH


vQFDGUHD] U . NFX3 DVWIHOsU sXQGH s = 
Q

 Q FD]XO vQ FDUH HVWLPD LLOH U  VH vQFDGUHD]  vQ LQWHUYDOXO PHQ LRQDW DILUP P F  LSRWH]D

QXO  r   HVWH FRQILUPDW  Q FD] FRQWUDU U  VH VLWXHD]  vQ DIDUD LQWHUYDOXOXL LSRWH]D QXO  HVWH

LQILUPDW FHHDFHvQVHDPQ F YDORDUHDOXLr GLIHU VHPQLILFDWLYGH]HUR

 * 3 %R[ L ' $ 3LHUFH DX SURSXV 7(678/ 4 SULYLQG LSRWH]D VLPXOWDQHLW LL

QHVHPQLILFD LHLWXWXURUFRHILFLHQ LORUGHDXWRFRUHOD LH+ GHILQLQGDVWIHOYDULDELOD

U
4 = Q
       

FDUH XUPHD]  DVLPSWRWLF GLVWULEX LD  FX P JUDGH GH OLEHUWDWH 'DF  4 !
 LSRWH]D QXO  HVWH

LQILUPDW vQVHQVXOF FHOSX LQXQXOGLQWUHFRHILFLHQ LLr GLIHU VHPQLILFDWLYGH]HURLDUGDF 4

VHULDHVWHFRQVLGHUDW VWD LRQDU 
 2 YDULDQW  R UHSUH]LQW  L 7(678/ /-81*%2; /%  SHQWUX FDUH D IRVW GHILQLW 

YDULDELOD


P U
/% = Q  Q +  
N     
Q - N
N =

 7HVWXO /% HVWH UHFRPDQGDW VSUH GHRVHELUH GH WHVWXO 4  UHOD LD  vQ FD]XULOH vQ FDUH

HDQWLRQXO GH GDWH HVWH UHGXV Q 6LPLODU FD]XOXL DQWHULRU SHQWUX /% !
 LSRWH]D QXO  HVWH

LQILUPDW  QX WR L FRHILFLHQ LL r   VSUH GHRVHELUH GH /%
 FD] vQ FDUH +  HVWH FRQILUPDW 

FRHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHILLQGQHVHPQLILFDWLYL

 2 PRGDOLWDWH GH YHULILFDUH FX XQ VSHFWUX PDL ODUJ vQ VHQVXO F  SRDWH IL DSOLFDW  L SHQWUX D

DUJXPHQWD RS LXQHD vQWUH VHULD 736 L VHULD '36 VDX VHULD &,
 L VHULD &,
 HVWH WHVWXO U G FLQLL

XQLW LL 81,752277(67$YkQGGUHSWSXQFWGHSOHFDUHPRGHOXO

\ U\ X 

9DULDELOD X  ILLQG QHDXWRFRUHODW  GH PHGLH ]HUR L GLVSHUVLH FRQVWDQW  VH FRQVLGHU  F 

SHQWUXU FD]vQFDUH\ \ X YDULDELOD\ HVWHUH]XOWDWXOXQXLSURFHVGHPHUVODvQWkPSODUH

ILLQGGHFLQHVWD LRQDU 

 'DF DYHPvQYHGHUHYDULDQWDvQFDUHDSDUHLSDUDPHWUXOOLEHU

 

3HQWUXYHULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHFRUHOD LHVLPSO VHXWLOL]HD] WHVWXO

U
 W = Q -  

- U

*0/MXQJ*3(%R[2QD0HVXUHRI/DFNRI)LWLQ7LPH6HULHV0RGHOV%LRPHWULFDQR

7HUPHQXOGHXQLWURRWVHUHIHU ODU G FLQLOHXQXLSROLQRPvQFDUHDSDUHXQRSHUDWRU%ODSXWHUHDvQIXQF LH

GH P ULPHD vQWkU]LHULL $VWIHO SHQWUX \  %\  SHQWUX \
 %  \  SHQWUX \

% \ 'HH[HPSOXPRGHOXODXWRUHJUHVLY

\ E \ E \
X W QSRDWHILUHGDWDVWIHO\ l %l %l l %  X GDF U G FLQLOHl l

E Ll l
 E  LDU % HVWH XWLOL]DW vQ VHQVXO DU WDW &RQGL LD GH VWD LRQDULWDWH SUHVXSXQH FD E  E DGLF DWkWl FkWLl
V 

ILH PDL PLFL GHFkW  GDU GDF  l

 L l   DILUP P F  H[LVW  R U G FLQ  XQLWDU  SHQWUX FDUH E
 E   L E l 
$DGDU HFXD LD \ E \
 X
 E \ SRDWHILXWLOL]DW SHQWUXDYHULILFDLSRWH]DQXO l
GDF l VWDELOLQGGDF 
E E vQVLWXD LDvQFDUHE 

123
 \ D \ Y

XQGHY HURDUHVWD LRQDU GHPHGLH]HURLs 

SULQvQORFXLULVXFFHVLYHDOHYDULDELOHL\ \
FXH[SUHVLLOHFRUHVSXQ] WRDUH

\

D \ Y 

\ D \ Y 

VHDMXQJHvQILQDOGXS GHFDODUHDvQWLPSSkQ ODXOWLPXOWHUPHQLvQVXPDUHODH[SUHVLD

\ = W D + \ + Y 

VDXPDLVLPSOX

\ D D WX       

XQGH

D  \ 

X = Y 

1HOVRQ L 3ORVVHU GHQXPHVF SURFHVXO GHVFULV GH UHOD LD  FD ILLQG XQ SURFHV 763 LDU

HOHPHQWXOFKHLHHVWHWUHQGXOUHSUH]HQWDWvQPRGHOGHYDULDELODW

 &RQVHPQ P GH DVHPHQHD F  YDULDQWD LQL LDO  \  D  \  Y  SRDWH IL UHGDW  DYkQG vQ

VWkQJDHJDOLW LLGLIHUHQ D\ \ 

\ \ D Y       

UHSUH]HQWkQGXQSURFHV'63vQFDUHHOHPHQWXOFKHLHHVWHGLIHUHQ DGHRUGLQXOvQWkL

\ \  \ 

 $PEHOHYDULDQWHGHSUHOXFUDUHDPRGHOXOXLLQL LDOGHPHUVODvQWkPSODUH\ D \ 

X DXFDHOHPHQWFRPXQIDSWXOF XUP UHVFHOLPLQDUHDWHQGLQ HLOLQLDUHH[LVWHQWHvQGDWHDVWIHOvQFkW

V VHDMXQJ ODXQUHVWFXUDWSXUDOHDWRU'DF RELHFWLYXOHVWHUHDOL]DWSULQFDOFXOXOGLIHUHQ HORUGH

RUGLQXO vQWkL DILUP P F  SURFHVXO HVWH GH WLS '63 LDU GDF  GLIHUHQ HOH GH RUGLQXO vQWkL QX UH]ROY 

SUREOHPD VH UHFRPDQG  OXDUHD vQ FDOFXO D WHQGLQ HL L L]RODUHD DFHVWHLD GH GDWHOH LQL LDOH ILH SULQ

LQFOXGHUHD H[SOLFLW  vQ PRGHO D YDULDELOHL WUHQG ILH SULQ FDOFXOXO SUHDODELO DO WHQGLQ HL L HOLPLQDUHD

DFHVWHLDGLQGDWH \ - \ =X 
W W W

  GDF  VHULD HVWH GH WLS 763 VDX '63 DYHP vQ YHGHUH 7(678/ ',&.(<
3HQWUX D VWDELOL

)8//(5 ')WHVW  Q DFHVW VFRS VH FRQVLGHU  GUHSW SXQFW GH SRUQLUH R IRUP  PDL JHQHUDO  D

PRGHOXOXLFDUHLQFOXGHHQFRPSDVVFHOHGRX IRUPHGHPDQLIHVWDUHDOHWUHQGXOXLvQGDWH

\ D U\ D WY      

XQGH

Y YDULDELO VWD LRQDU GHPHGLH]HURLs 

D UD  SDUDPHWULL

W Q

 QVLWXD LDvQFDUH

  D LU SURFHVXOHVWHGHWLS'63

  USURFHVXOHVWHGHWLS763

QWUDGHY USHQWUXD U H[SUHVLDGHYLQH\ D \ Y DGLF \ \ D Y ILLQG

FDUDFWHUL]DW  FD '63 vQWUXFkW D Y  UHSUH]LQW  XQ SURFHV VWD LRQDU RVFLOkQG DOHDWRU vQ MXUXO

SDUDPHWUXOXL D  3HQWUX U GH P ULPH QHW LQIHULRDU  FHOHL FDUH LQGLF  DXWRFRUHOD LH U SUDFWLF

QHVHPQLILFDWLY  H[SUHVLD  GHYLQH \  D  D W  Y  DGLF  SURFHV 763 SHQWUX FDUH QH

DWHSW PFDY V vQWUXQHDVF FRQGL LLOHVWD LRQDULW LL'HPHQ LRQDWF GHSDUWDMDUHDHVWHVXILFLHQWV 

VHED]H]HSHYHULILFDUHDSDUDPHWUXOXLU

 6LPLODU VLWXD LHL vQWkOQLWH vQ FD]XO YHULILF ULL VHPQLILFD LHL SDUDPHWUXOXL GH UHJUHVLH YH]L

 SUHFXP L s
&DSLWROHOH ,,, L ,9 VH HVWLPHD]  U  VH GHWHUPLQ  QLYHOXO W s
= U  L VH

FRPSDU FXW  vQWUXFkWGLIHU GHYDORULOHUHSDUWL LHL6WXGHQWGXS FXPXUPHD] V DU W P

 

 ' $ 'LFNH\  : $ )XOOHU  'LVWULEXWLRQ RI  WKH (VWLPDWRUV IRU $XWRUHJUHVVLYH 7LPH 6HULHV ZLWK D 8QLW 5RRW
-RXUQDORI$PHULFDQ6WDWLVWLTXH$VVRFLDWLRQQR

124
 GDF W  W  + U HVWHLQILUPDW DFHDVWDvQVHDPQ F VXQWHPvQSUH]HQ DXQXL

SURFHV763

 GDF  W  !W   LSRWH]D QXO  HVWH DFFHSWDW  U   SURFHVXO HVWH GH WLS '63 2

H[HPSOLILFDUHDFDOFXOHORUHVWHUHGDW vQDSOLFD LDFDUHXUPHD] PHQ LXQLORUUHGDWHvQFRQWLQXDUH

 

0HQ LXQL

D QWUXFkW SDUDPHWUXO U VH UHIHU  OD FRHILFLHQWXO GH DXWRFRUHOD LH D F UXL YDORDUH HVWH  FHO

PXOW HJDO  FX XQX DXWRFRUHOD LH SHUIHFW  UH]XOW  F  vQ FD]XO XQXL SURFHV '63 HVWLPDWRULL U  QX

XUPHD] RGLVWULEX LHFkWGHFkWVLPHWULF vQMXUXODGHY UDWHLYDORULU SHQWUXVLPSOXOPRWLYF  U 

QX SRDWH GHS L QLYHOXO XQX 5HSDUWL LD QRUPDO  VDX UHSDUWL LD 6WXGHQW QX SRDWH IL GHFL LQYRFDW 

6ROX LDDIRVWGDW GH)XOOHUL'LFNH\FDUHDXRE LQXWYDORULFULWLFHSULQVLPXO ULGHWLS0RQWH&DUOR

SHQWUXGLYHUVHYDULDQWHGHH[SULPDUHDSURFHVXOXLQHVWD LRQDUYDORULSHFDUHOHVLPEROL] PILHW  

ILHtWDX 

E 0&003 SRDWH IL OD IHO GH ELQH DSOLFDW  L SHQWUX WUDQVIRUPDUHD OLQLDU  D H[SUHVLHL

 OD FDUH DMXQJHP GDF  VF GHP GLQ DPEHOH S U L SH \  FHHD FH FRQGXFH OD H[SUHVLD

D\ = D + U -  \ + D W + X  'DF  VLPEROL] P FX U  E XUPHD]  V  YHULILF P VHPQLILFD LD

SDUDPHWUXOXL E vQFRQGL LLOHvQFDUH+
E 9HULILFDUHDGHFXUJHVLPLODUvQWUXFkWDWHVWDGDF  E  

=  
HVWHDFHODLOXFUXFXDYHULILFDGDF  U

9DULDQWD WHVW ULL VHPQLILFD LHL HVWLPDWRUXOXL E  HVWH SUHIHUDW  GDWRULW  IDSWXOXL F  PDMRULWDWHD

SDFKHWHORU GH SURJUDPH RIHU  YDORUL SHQWUX W vQ FD]XO LSRWH]HL QXOH IRUPXODWH vQ UDSRUW FX ]HUR 

+
E 

3H GHDOW SDUWHXWLOL]DUHDSDUDPHWUXOXLERIHU DYDQWDMXODERUG ULLSUREOHPHLvQWURYDULDQW 

JHQHUDO DPRGHOXOXLDXWRUHJUHVLYvQVHQVXOLQWURGXFHULLWXWXURULQIOXHQ HORUvQWkU]LDWH

  
D\ = E\    +  E D\    + H      
 

XQGH

= -
E

 
U


M =  S -  

E = -


U


 $FHDVW  YDULDQW  H[WLQV  D WHVWXOXL HVWH vQWkOQLW  VXE GHQXPLUHD GH 7(678/ $')

$XJPHQWHG'LFNH\)XOOHUWHVW

([HPSOX

 )LH GRX  YDULDELOH HFRQRPLFH FDUH DX vQUHJLVWUDW vQWUXQ LQWHUYDO GH  OXQL XUP WRDUHOH

YDORUL

 

9DORULFULWLFHW VWDELOLWHGH'LFNH\L)XOOHU


7DEHOXO

7LSXOGHPRGHO 3REDELOLWDWHDGHDRE LQHRYDORDUHLQIHULRDU 

QLYHOXOXL

     

GDF Q  GDF Q 

\  U\   Y       

\  D  U\   Y       

\  D  U\   D W       

Y 
6XUVD76WHZDUG(FRQRPHWULFV7K$OODQ1<

125


9 

= 

 1H SURSXQHP V  FDUDFWHUL] P ILHFDUH VHULH SULQ SULVPD WHVWXOXL %DUWOHWW D WHVWXOXL 4 D

WHVWXOXL/%SUHFXPLDWHVWXOXL'LFNH\)XOOHU

 

&D]XOVHULHL9 

 &RHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHYH]LUHOD LDRE LQX LSHQWUXN VXQWXUP WRULLU

  U
   U   QWUXFkW FRHILFLHQ LL VH vQFDGUHD]  vQ LQWHUYDOXO

 
-  U   -  U  DILUP PF VHULDHVWHDOHDWRDUHS 
N
 

QFHHDFHSULYHWHWHVWXO4RE LQHPFRUHVSXQ] WRUUHOD LHL

4     

$FHDVW YDORDUHHVWHLQIHULRDU QLYHOXOXLWDEHODWc

  

$SOLFkQGWHVWXO/MXQJ%R[YH]LUHOD LDUH]XOW F 

(-  )


 

/% =  ( +  ) + + =  
 -   -   - 


 1LYHOXO DFHVWHL YDORUL VH DIO  PXOW VXE FHO DO YDORULL WDEHODWH c

    FHHD FH LQGLF 

IDSWXOF vQFD]XODPEHORUYHULILF UL4/%VWD LRQDULWDWHDVHULHL9  

 &D]XOVHULHL= 

&RHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH RE LQX L U    U   U   VH VLWXHD]  vQ

 
DIDUD LQWHUYDOXOXL -  U  -  U   GLPLQXkQGXVH OHQW FHHD FH
N
 

LQGLF QHVWD LRQDULWDWHD$FHHDLFRQFOX]LHUH]XOW LvQXUPDDSOLF ULLWHVWHORU4L/%

4     

  

/% =  ( +  ) + + =  
 -   -   - 

"!$# !&%'
vQWUXFkWDPEHOHYDORULOHRE LQXWHGHS HVFQLYHOXOYDORULLWDEHODWHc  

 Q FRQWLQXDUH WHVWXO 'LFNH\ )XOOHU DSOLFDW VHULHL =  vQWUXFkW DFHVWD LQFOXGH FRPSRQHQWD

WUHQGDFRQGXVFRUHVSXQ] WRUUHOD LHLODHFXD LD

!
\ D U\  () D  W * ]
 () W

 0HQ LRQ P F  PDWULFHD LQYHUV  ; ; +  vQ FDUH ; LQFOXGH HOHPHQWHOH YHFWRUXOXL DUWLILFLDO GH

HOHPHQWDOHYHFWRUXOXL]  () LW VHSUH]LQW vQXUPDFDOFXOHORUDVWIHO

  -   -  

-
  (;
; ), = -     -   

  -    

 QWUXFkW U   HVWH LQIHULRU OXL  U  VHULD HVWH QHVWD LRQDU  GH WLS 763 6H SRDWH

DILUPD F  PRGHOXO ] =  + W  GHVFULH FRUHFW HYROX LD DVSHFW FRQILUPDW L GH IDSWXO F 
W


W =  -  =  HVWHLQIHULRUYDORULLWDEHODWHW

 YH]LWDEHOXO

 - 

 $QDOL]D HIHFWHORU SH FDUH OH JHQHUHD]  SUH]HQ D VDX DEVHQ D WUHQGXOXL vQ GDWH L vQ JHQHUDO

vQWUHJ GHPHUVXO GH YHULILFDUH L FDWHJRULVLUH D VHULLORU GH GDWH WHVWH DQDOL]D GH FRLQWHJUDUH

SUREOHPDU G FLQLORUXQLW LLSUH]LQW LQWHUHVGLQXUP WRDUHOHSXQFWHGHYHGHUH

126
  FDOLWDWHD UH]XOWDWHORU PRGHOXOXL HFRQRPHWULF GHSLQGH L GH P VXUD vQ FDUH WHQGLQ D

HYROXWLY VHLQWHUSXQHvQDQDOL]DUHOD LHLGHGHSHQGHQ GLQWUHGRX VDXPDLPXOWHSURFHVH3XWHP

DILUPD F  vQ VLWXD LLOH vQ FDUH VHULLOH GH GDWH PDL DOHV VHULLOH FURQRORJLFH FRQVWLWXLH ED]D GH GDWH

LQIHUHQ D VWDWLVWLF  VH ED]HD]  vQGHRVHEL SH SURSULHW LOH VHULHL JHQHUDWH GH SURFHVHOH VWRFKDVWLFH

VWD LRQDUH DD FXP vQ FD]XO XWLOL] ULL GDWHORU SHQWUX XQ HDQWLRQ LQIHUHQ D VWDWLVWLF  GHSLQGH GH

SURSULHW LOHHDQWLRQXOXLGHDILUHSUH]HQWDWLYLGHYROXPVXILFLHQWGHPDUH>@

 3HQWUX DQDOL]D GH UHJUHVLH HVWH LPSRUWDQW FD YDULDELOHOH \ L [   [  V  ILH FRLQWHJUDWH FHHD FH

.  DFHDVWD RIHULQG R ED]  VROLG  VROX LLORU HVWLPD LLORU

LPSOLF  VWD LRQDULWDWHD VHULHL UH]LGXXULORU  X

SUHFXPLWHVWHORUWL)
#
 0DLPXOWVHSRDWHDUJXPHQWDF SHQWUXGRX VHULL\  [  FRLQWHJUDWH&, /  0 2  D
HVWLPDWRULL D 1 
! 
FRQYHUJ PDL UDSLG VSUH DGHY UDWHOH YDORUL D  L D   ILLQG VXSUDFRQVLVWHQ L  vQGHRVHEL SHQWUX Q

VXILFLHQWGHPDUH>@

 ,QFOXGHUHD vQ DQDOL]D GH UHJUHVLH D GRX  VDX PDL PXOWH VHULL FDUHQXVXQWFRLQWHJUDWHDYkQG

GH UHJXO  JUDGH GH LQWHJUDUH GLIHULWH DUH FD UH]XOWDW RE LQHUHD XQXL FRHILFLHQW GH GHWHUPLQDUH 5 

DSURSLDW GH XQX SUHFXP L YDORUL SHQWUX W FDOFXODW VXSHULRDUH FHORU WDEHODWH vQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH

G FDOFXODW WHVWXO 'XUELQ:DWVRQ HVWH DSURSLDW GH ]HUR VHPQDOkQG DXWRFRUHOD LD YDULDELOHL

UH]LGXDOH Q DVWIHO GH VLWXD LL VH FRQVLGHU  F  UHJUHVLD UHOHY  R GHSHQGHQ  FHO SX LQ H[DJHUDW 

VDXDOWIHOVSXVVXQWHPvQSUH]HQ DXQHLUHJUHVLLvQGRLHOQLFHSDUHDILFRUHFW GDUODRPDLDWHQW 

YHULILFDUHSUH]LQW VXVSLFLXQL*UDQJHUL1HZEROGDXHWLFKHWDWRDVWIHOGHUHJUHVLHFXGHQXPLUHDGH
43
6SXULRXVUHJUHVVLRQ 

 &HL GRL DXWRUL DX SURSXV L R PRGDOLWDWH SUDFWLF  GH D GHSLVWD IDOVHOH UHJUHVLL DILUPkQG F  vQ

VLWXD LOH vQ FDUH 5 ! G / 57698 5;:8 69 0   DFHDVWDUHSUH]LQW XQVHPQDOF HVWLPDWRULLVXQWVXVSHF LLDUUHJUHVLD

HVWHvQGRLHOQLF VSXULRXV

 GHSDUWDMDUHD vQ VHULL GH WLS 763 L '63 SUH]LQW  LQWHUHV DWkW SHQWUX SURJQR]  vQ VHQVXO F 

VHULLOH 763 IDF SRVLELO  RE LQHUHD GH SURJQR]H SHUIRUPDQWH FKLDU L SH WHUPHQ OXQJ FkW L SHQWUX

DQDOL]  vQWUXFkW DFHOHDL VHULL 763 WUHEXLH IHULWH GH WUDQVIRUP UL SUHFXP FHOH H[SULPDWH GH

GLIHUHQ HOH GH RUGLQXO vQWkL D\   D[   vQWUXFkW DVWIHO GH SUHOXFU UL DU GXFH OD SLHUGHUHD XQRU

LQIRUPD LLXWLOHOHJDWHvQGHRVHELGHOHJ WXUDSHWHUPHQOXQJGLQWUHFHOHGRX YDULDELOH

 VHULLOH FRLQWHJUDWH HYLGHQ LD]  R UHOD LH GH HFKLOLEUX SH WHUPHQ OXQJ vQ HFRQRPLH (URDUHD

<  vQWUXFkW IRUPHD]  R VHULH VWD LRQDU  FDUH RVFLOHD]  vQ MXUXO OXL ]HUR VHPQDOHD]  VWDELOLWDWHD
X

HYROX LHL vPSUHXQ  D FHORU GRX  YDULDELOH $VWIHO GH UHOD LL GH HFKLOLEUX SH WHUPHQ OXQJ SRW IL

GHFRQVSLUDWH SULQ DQDOL]D GH FRLQWHJUDUH HIHFWXDW  SHQWUX YDULDELOHOH HFRQRPLFH LPSRUWDQWH

SUHFXP SUH XUL L VDODULL LPSRUW L H[SRUW SUH XUL L FRVWXUL SUH XULOH GLQ MXGH XO L L SUH XULOH GLQ

MXGH XOMHWF

 
=>
QPRGHOXO\ ? D[ XFRQVLGHU PVHULLOH\ [ &,
? ? ? @A BAC FHHDFHLPSOLF X ? \D[ vQFDUHVHULDX ,
? ? @DC QP VXUDvQ

FDUH  VH DEDWH GH OD DGHY UDWD YDORDUH D SDUDPHWUXOXL D vQUHJLVWU P FRUHVSXQ] WRU DEDWHUL DOH VHULHL
D

X E = \ E [
- D E GHODFHHDFHvQ HOHJHPSULQHYROX LHVWD LRQDU 7RWRGDW LvPSU WLHUHDYDULDELOHL X
F YDILvQFUHWHUH

QWUXFkW 0&003 SUHVXSXQH RE LQHUHD GH HVWLPDWRUL FDUH V  PLQLPL]H]H vPSU WLHUHD YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH DFHVW

RELHFWLYVHUHDOL]HD] vQP VXUDvQFDUH VHDSURSLHGHDDSURSLHUHFDUHHVWHFXDWkWPDLUDSLG FXFkWVHULD XG HVWH

D

PDLDSURSLDW GHVHULDVWD LRQDU 

=H
&:-*UDQJHU31HZEROG6SXULRXV5HJUHVVLRQLQ(FRQRPHWULFV-RXUQDORI(FRQRPHWULFVYRO
=I
 'DF  vQ PRGHOXO \ D D  D [  X YDULDELOD [ QX UHSUH]LQW  XQ UHJUHVRU VWRFKDVWLF FL GLPSRWULY  SUH]LQW  R WHQGLQ
A 

HYLGHQW FD]vQFDUH;;QQXFRQYHUJHVSUHXQQLYHOOLPLW RPDWULFHILQLW QHVLQJXODU DIHFWkQGGHFLFRQVLVWHQ D

HVWLPDWRULORUQJHQHUDOvQHFRQRPLHVHULLOHGHGDWHVXQWQHVWD LRQDUHUHSUH]HQWkQGUH]XOWDWHVLPLODUHFHORUJHQHUDWHGH

SURFHVH GH PHUV OD vQWkPSODUH LQGHSHQGHQWH GDU vQWkPSO WRU DVHP Q WRDUH 7HQGLQ D H[LVWHQW  vQ GDWH

VXSUDGLPHQVLRQHD]  HYHQWXDOD GHSHQGHQ  [  \ DVSHFW VHPQDODW GH YDORULOH FDOFXODWH SHQWUX W WHVWXO W FDUH VXQW

VXSHULRDUH FHORU WDEHODWH FKLDU L vQ VLWXD LL vQ FDUH GHSHQGHQ D OD FDUH VH UHIHU  HVWH VODE  LQH[LVWHQW  FKLDU $FHDVWD L

GDWRULW  IDSWXOXL F  SHQWUX VHULLOH LQWHJUDWH YDORULOH OXL W L ) UH]XOWDWH GLQ FDOFXOH QX XUPHD]  UHSDUWL LD 6WXGHQW

UHVSHFWLY )LVKHU DD FXP QH DWHSWDP vQ FD]XO DFFHSW ULL LSRWH]HL QXOH 7HVWXO G vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH VHPQDOHD] 

DXWRFRUHOD LD YDULDELOHL X J  HVWH VLQJXUXOFDUHGHFRQVSLU IDOVDGHSHQGHQ &DXUPDUHDWXQFLFkQGGLVSXQHPGHVHULL

FURQRORJLFH GH GDWH HVWH UHFRPDQGDELO FD DQDOL]D GH FRLQWHJUDUH V  SUHFHDG  DQDOL]D GH UHJUHVLH Q VLWXD LD vQ FDUH

H[LVW VHPQDOHFXSULYLUHODRIDOV UHJUHVLHHVWHSUHIHUDELOV vQORFXLPYDORULOHOXL\ L[ FXGLIHUHQ HOHGHRUGLQXOvQWkL ? ?

D\D[

127
 0HWRGHOH GH HYDOXDUH D FRPSRQHQWHORU VLVWHPDWLFH RVFLODWRULL VH]RQDOLWDWH FLFOLFLWDWH

SUH]HQWDWH vQ DFHVW FDSLWRO VH ED]HD]  vQ VSHFLDO SH HYDOX UL GH QDWXU  VWDWLVWLF  LQGLFL PHGLL Q

FDSLWROHOH XUP WRDUH YRP SUH]HQWD PHWRGH PDL UDILQDWH FDUH GHL PDL ELQH IXQGDPHQWDWH QX

FRQGXFvQPRGDXWRPDWODUH]XOWDWHPXOWPDLSUHFLVH

 $P SXWHD GH DVHPHQHD DG XJD F  WRDWH DFHVWH PHWRGH UH LQ FHHD FH HVWH HVHQ LDO UHSHWDELO

GLQPDQLIHVW ULOHFRQVWDWDWHvQWUHFXW

%,%/,2*5$),(

 %R[ * ( 3 -HQNLQV * 0  7LPH 6HULHV $QDO\VLV )RUHFDVWLQJ DQG &RQWURO +ROGHQ'D\

6DQ)UDQFLVFR

 &XWKEHUWVRQ.+DOO6$SSOLHG(FRQRPHWULFV7HFKQLTXHV:KUHDWRQV/WG

 )RPE\7%5KRGHV*$GYDQFHVLQ(FRQRPHWULFV-$,*UHVV/RQGRQ

 *UDQJHU&:-6SHFWUDO$QDO\VLVRI(FRQRPLF7LPH6HULHV3ULQFHWRQ8QLY3UHVV1<



 *ULIILWKV : -XGJH * &DUWHU +LOO 5  /HDUQLQJ DQG 3UDFWLFLQJ (FRQRPHWULFV -RKQ :LOH\

DQG6RQV

 *XMDUDWL'%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV0F*UDZ+LOO,QF1<

 +DUYH\$&7LPH6HULHV0RGHOV+RZHVWHU1<

 -RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGV0F*UDZ+LOO1<

 0DGGDOD*6,QWURGXFWLRQWR(FRQRPHWULFV0F0LOODQ3XEO

3HFLFDQ(6(FRQRPHWULH(GLWXUD$OO%XFXUHWL

7HUWLFR 0 6WRLFD 3 3RSHVFX 7K  0RGHODUHD L SUHGLF LD VHULLORU GH WLPS (GLWXUD

$FDGHPLHL%XFXUHWL

128
 &DSLWROXO9,,

0RGHOHGLQDPLFHGHVWLQDWHLQFOXGHULLHIHFWHORUGHFDODWHvQ

WLPS


0RGHOXO/DJ

(IHFWXO FHORU PDL PXOWH GLQWUH LPSXOVXULOH GDWH HFRQRPLHL SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO IDFWRULORU

H[RJHQL PRGLILFDUHD  SUH XOXL XQXL SURGXV GH ED]  LQYHVWLUHD GH IRQGXUL SHQWUX GH]YROWDUHD XQXL

VHFWRU HFRQRPLF GHFODQDUHD GH JUHYH vQ LQGXVWULD H[WUDFWLY  FDODPLW LOH QDWXUDOH HWF VH UHVLPWH

GXS WUHFHUHDXQXLLQWHUYDOPDLPLFVDXPDLPDUHGHWLPS

 QWUHPRWLYHOHFDUHSURYRDF vQWkU]LHULvQPDQLIHVWDUHDDF LXQLLXQXLIDFWRUGHRVHELP

  PRWLYH GH QDWXU  SVLKRORJLF  GLQWUH FDUH PHQ LRQ P RELFHLXULOH LQHU LD WHDPD 'H

H[HPSOX R FUHWHUH EUXVF  D YHQLWXOXL QX GHWHUPLQ  R PRGLILFDUH WRWDO  D FRQVXPXOXL GDWRULW  SH

GH R SDUWH D RELQXLQ HORU L JXVWXULORU vQFHW HQLWH LDU SH GH DOW  SDUWH D WHPHULORU F  DFHDVWD QX

YD GXUD FD XUPDUH D QHFXQRDWHULL SDU LDOH D FDUDFWHUXOXL SHUPDQHQW VDX WUDQ]LWRULX DO PRGLILF ULL

FDX]HL

PRWLYHGHQDWXU WHKQRORJLF GLQWUHFDUHFHOHSULYLQGDGDSWDUHDOLQLLORUGHIDEULFD LHVDXD

UHFRQYHUVLHLIRU HLGHPXQF IDFFDXQLPSXOVSULYLQGFDSLWDOXOGHH[HPSOXLHIWLQLUHDXWLODMHORUVDX

PkQDGHOXFUXGHH[HPSOXFUHWHUHDVDODULLORUvQWUXQQRXVHFWRUGHDFWLYLWDWHV SURGXF XQHIHFW

FDUHGRDUGXS XQWLPSVHYDPDQLIHVWDSUHJQDQW

 PRWLYH GH RUGLQ LQVWLWX LRQDO  OHJDWH vQGHRVHEL GH REOLJD LLOH FRQWUDFWXDOH FDUH

FRQGL LRQHD]  DSURYL]LRQDUHD OLYUDUHD vQFDVDUHD GUHSWXULORU vQFDVDUHD GREkQ]LL SHQWUX GHSR]LWH OD

WHUPHQ FDUH GH UHJXO  DXGDUXOGHDvQWkU]LDVFKLPEDUHDvQUDSRUWFXPRGLILFDUHDSHVWHQRDSWHD

XQRUFRQGL LL

([LVWHQ DvQHFRQRPLHDXQRUDVWIHOGHPRWLYHIDFHFDvQWkU]LHUHDU VSXQVXOXLODXQHOHP VXUL

LPSXOVXUL PRGLILF UL GH SROLWLF  HFRQRPLF  V  VH PDQLIHVWH GH R DVHPHQHD PDQLHU  vQFkW

HODVWLFLWDWHDSHWHUPHQVFXUWGHYLQHLUHOHYDQW 

 'RDU WUHFHUHD WLPSXOXL L GH]OHJDUHD GH REOLJD LLOH RELFHLXULOH L WHPHULOH FDUH OHDJ 

FRPSRUWDPHQWXODJHQ LORUHFRQRPLFLGHWUHFXWIDFFDUROXOIDFWRUXOXLV DSDU WRWPDLUHOHYDQW

 QUDSRUWFXGXUDWDGHDWHSWDUHDHIHFWXOXLvQWkU]LHULOHSRWIL

  GH GXUDW  IRDUWH VFXUW  PRGLILFDUHD WHPSHUDWXULL  FRQVXPXO GH E XWXUL FUHWHUHD RIHUWHL GH

SURGXVHGHILFLWDUHYkQ] ULOHVFKLPEDUHDSUH XOXLQLYHOXOYkQ] ULORUHWF

  GH GXUDW  VFXUW  GH UHJXO  PDL PLF  GH XQ DQ LQWHQVLILFDUHD UHFODPHL  YkQ] ULOH

VWLPXOHQWHOHPDWHULDOHSURGXF LDFUHWHUHDGREkQ]LORUFUHWHUHDGHSXQHULORUFUHWHUHDLQIOD LHL

DFFHOHUDUHDFLUFXLWXOXLEDQLORU

  GH GXUDW  PHGLH vQWUH  DQL PRGHUQL]DUHDWHKQRORJLHLSURGXF LDPRGLILF ULGHOHJLVOD LH

 FRPSRUWDPHQWXO HFRQRPLF vPEXQ W LUHD FDOLW LL SURGXVXOXL  FUHWHUHD YkQ] ULORU

LQGXVWULDOL]DUHDFDOLWDWHDPHGLXOXLHWF

  GH OXQJ  GXUDW  LQYHVWL LL vQ WUDQVSRUWXUL  UHQWDELOL]DUHD WUDQVSRUWXULORU SUHFXP L D DOWRU

DFWLYLW L LQYHVWL LL vQ FRQVWUXF LL  GH]YROWDUHD SURGXF LHL L D VWDQGDUGXOXL GH YLD  GH]YROWDUHD

vQY PkQWXOXLFUHWHUHDSURGXFWLYLW LLLDFDOLW LLDFWLYLW LORUHWF

 2 PHQ LXQH DSDUWH PHULW  D IL I FXW  FX SULYLUH OD FRQH[LXQLOH GH WLS IHHGEDFN L IHHG

IRUHZDUG FDUH SUHVXSXQ L HOH R GLVWDQ  vQ WLPS GH OD GHFODQDUHD XQHL DF LXQL UHVSHFWLY DWLQJHUHD

XQXLRELHFWLYSkQ ODFRQVWDWDUHDHIHFWXOXL

 3UREOHPHOH GH P VXUDUH FDUH DSDU vQ VSHFLILFDUHD L XWLOL]DUHD PRGHOXOXL ODJ vQ DQDOL]D L

SURJQR]DHFRQRPLF VXQW

D VWDELOLUHDXQLW LLGHWLPSODFDUHVHUHIHU ILHFDUHQLYHODOYDULDELOHORUPRGHOXOXL

129
 E GHOLPLWDUHDvQWkU]LHULLDSDUL LHLHIHFWXOXL

F HVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORU

 D 6WDELOLUHD XQLW LL GH WLPS F UHLD vL FRUHVSXQGH XQ QLYHO \  SUHVXSXQH DOHJHUHD vQWUH

SRVLELOLW LOH GH D RE LQH GDWH DQXDOH WULPHVWULDOH OXQDUH V SW PkQDOH HYHQWXDO FLQFLQDOH VDX

GHFHQDOH 8Q LQWHUYDO XQLWDWH GH WLPS SUHD PDUH IDFH LQDFFHVLELO  GHSLVWDUHD GH LQIOXHQ H FX

vQWkU]LHUL GH GXUDWH VFXUWHLDUDOHJHUHDXQHLXQLW LGHWLPSSUHDPLFLSRDWHSURYRFDGLILFXOW LvQFH

SULYHWH RE LQHUHD GDWHORU VDX HOLPLQDUHD vQWkU]LHULORU GH GXUDW  OXQJ  &D XUPDUH QH ED] P vQ

RS LXQLOH QRDVWUH SH SDUWLFXODULW LOH IHQRPHQXOXL RELHFWLYHOH GHPHUVXOXL HFRQRPHWULF L QX vQ

XOWLPXO UkQG SH SRVLELOLW LOH H[LVWHQWH GH D RE LQH GDWH SULYLQG XQLWDWHD GH WLPS FRQVLGHUDW 

UHYHODWRDUH5HIHULWRUODDFHVWGLQXUP DVSHFWPHQ LRQ PF GHVHRULGDWHOHVXQWDQXDOHFD]vQFDUH

SRVLELOLW LOHGHDOHJHUHVXQWDSURDSHQXOH

E 'HOLPLWDUHD vQWkU]LHULORU OD FDUH HIHFWXO U VSXQGH DWXQFL FkQG YDULDELOD H[RJHQ  VH

PRGLILF  SRDWH EHQHILFLD GH DYDQWDMHOH XQHL UHSUH]HQW UL JUDILFH DGHFYDWH DFHVWXL VFRS $VWIHO

FURQRJUDPDSULYLQGHYROX LDYDULDELOHLFDX]DOHH[SXV SHRKkUWLHGHFDOFLVXSUDSXV FURQRJUDPHL

YDULDELOHL HIHFW SRDWH SXQH vQ HYLGHQ  SULQWUR VLPSO GHSODVDUHDXQHLDGLQWUHFURQRJUDPHSHD[D

WLPSXOXLRDQDORJLHFDUHDSDUHGXS XQDVDXPDLPXOWHXQLW LGHWLPS

 FQFHHDFHSULYHWHSDUDPHWULLPRGHOHORUFXHIHFWvQWkU]LDWPRGHOHODJPRGHOHGLQDPLFH

DFHWLD VXQW YDULDELOL FD QXP U vQ UDSRUW FX WLSXO GH PRGHO UH]XOWDW vQ XUPD VSHFLILF ULL Q PRG

IUHFYHQWGHRVHELP 

PRGHOHXQLIDFWRULDOHvQFDUHHIHFWXOVHUHVLPWHGXS RvQWkU]LHUHGHRXQLWDWHGHWLPS

\ D
D  [
 X       

XQGH

\  SURGXFWLYLWDWHDVDXRIHUWDVDXUHFROWD

[ XWLODMHVDXFHUHUHDVDXXPLGLWDWHDVROXOXL

 PRGHOH DXWRUHJUHVLYHvQFDUHvQWkU]LHUHDHVWHGLVWULEXLW HDORQDW SHPDLPXOWHXQLW LGH

WLPS

\ D
D  \
 D \
 X      

XQGH\ FRQVXPXOVDXDFXPXO ULOHVDXSURILWXO

 PRGHOH PL[WH vQ FDUH YDULDELOHOH FDX]DOH FX VDX I U  HIHFW vQWkU]LDW SRW IL GH QDWXU 

H[RJHQ [VDXDXWRFRUHODWH\
 

\ D
D  [ D [
 D \
 X     

XQGH

\ FHUHUHDFDOLWDWHD

[ YHQLWXOXWLODUHD

G0RGHOHvQFDUHYDULDELODIDFWRULDO [vLWUDQVPLWHHIHFWXOvQPRGWUHSWDWDWkWvQSHULRDGD

WFkWLSHSDUFXUVXOXQXLQXP UILQLWGHSHULRDGHGHvQWkU]LHUH

$DGDUHVWHSUHVXSXV RGLVWULEX LHDLQIOXHQ HLSHPDLPXOWHSHULRDGHGHWLPSODJGLVWULEXLW

VDXvQWkU]LHULHDORQDWH

\ D
D  [ D [
 D [
 D [
 X    

XQGH

\ SURGXF LD \ LQIOD LD    \ P ULPHDGHSR]LWXOXL

[ LQYHVWL LLOH [ FUHWHUHDRIHUWHLGHEDQL [ GREkQGDFXFDSLWDOL]DUH

 QWUXQ DVWIHO GH PRGHO SDUDPHWUXOXL D   vL SXWHP DWULEXL VHPQLILFD LD HFRQRPLF  GH

PXOWLSOLFDWRU GH LPSDFW H[SULP  PRGLILFDUHD vQ PHGLH D YDULDELOHL \ OD R PRGLILFDUH XQLWDU  D

YDULDELOHL [ vQ DFHHDL SHULRDG  W 'DF  PRGLILFDUHD YDULDELOHL [ VH PHQ LQH L vQ SHULRDGD

XUP WRDUH DWXQFL D  D  H[SULP  PRGLILFDUHD YDULDELOHL \ vQ SHULRDGD XUP WRDUH UHVSHFWLY

D  D D  vQ SHULRDGD YLLWRDUH HWF $VWIHO GH VXPH SDU LDOH UHSUH]LQW  PXOWLSOLFDWRUL LQWHULPDUL vQ

WLPS FH VXPD E  D   D  D   D  UHSUH]LQW  vQ UHOD LD  PXOWLSOLFDWRUXO WRWDO SH WHUPHQ OXQJ

>@

130
 
 QWUH YDULDQWHOH PRGHOXOXL FX ODJ GLVWULEXLW  VH GHWDHD]  SULQ IUHFYHQ D DSDUL LHL ORU vQ

VWXGLLOHDSOLFDWLYH

 DYDULDQWDGHVFUHWHULLvQWLPSDHIHFWXOXLJHQHUDWGHPRGLILFDUHDIDFWRUXOXL
  
\ D
D  [ N[ N [ X N  

 EYDULDQWDFUHWHULLWUHSWDWHDHIHFWXOXLXUPDW GHRGHVFUHWHUHWUHSWDW SkQ ODDQXODUH

\ D
E  [
 E [
 E [
 X    

E  E E !E 
 !!E 
    

 QDLQWH GH D DERUGD PDL vQ GHWDOLX PRGHOHOH VSHFLILFH ILHF UHL YDULDQWH PHQ LRQ P F  vQ

SULQFLSLXPHWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWHSRDWHILXWLOL]DW vQYHGHUHDHVWLP ULLvQGLYHUVHYDULDQWH2

SULP YDULDQW VDUGDWRUDOXL$OWL7LQEHUJHQFDUHDXSURSXVFDvQFD]XOPRGHOXOXLFXODJGLVWULEXLW

V VHSURFHGH]HVHFYHQ LDODVWIHO

 vQWURSULP HWDS V VHHVWLPH]HSDUDPHWULLPRGHOXOXL

\ D
D  [ X 

 FHDGHDGRXDHVWLPDUHV VHUHIHUHOD

\ D
D  [ D [
 X 

 XUPkQGDSRLPRGHOXO

\ D
D  [ D [
 D [
 X 

L DD PDL GHSDUWH SkQ  FkQG P ULPHD QHVHPQLILFDWLY  D XOWLPXOXL SDUDPHWUX VDX VFKLPEDUHD

VHPQXOXLDFHVWXLDvQUDSRUWFXHVWLPD LLOHDQWHULRDUHV RSUHDVF vQGHS UWDUHDvQWUHFXWQDFHVWIHO

SH OkQJ  HVWLPDWRUL VDU UH]ROYD L SUREOHPD VWDELOLULL RELHFWLYH D RUGLQXOXL P ULPLL ODJXOXL

PRGHOXOXL FX HIHFWH vQWkU]LDWH 0RWLYH SUHFXP PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWHD GLQWUH [  \

   L HIHFWXO HL

GLVWUXFWLYDVXSUDHVWLPD LLORUFDLGLPHQVLXQHDUHODWLYUHGXV DVHULLORUGHWLPSGHFDUHGHUHJXO 

GLVSXQHPDXI FXWFDSURFHGHXOV ILHFDOLILFDWGUHSWQHSHUIRUPDQWLV FDG vQXLWDUH

Q PRG IUHFYHQW SHQWUX PRGHOHOH SUH]HQWDWH vQ UHOD LLOH  VH SURFHGHD]  OD

HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU IRORVLQG 0&003 GHL XQHOH YLRO UL DOH LSRWH]HORU PHWRGHL VXQW

UHFXQRVFXWH

$VWIHO H[LVWHQ D vQWkU]LHULL vQ GHFODQDUHD HIHFWXOXL IDFH FD HVWLPDWRULL V  QX ILH HILFLHQ L L

QLFL VXILFLHQW GH VWDELOL GDWRULW  GHSHQGHQ HL YDULDELOHL FDX]DOH GH SHUWXUED LH FD L GDWRULW 

FROLQHDULW LL $VWIHO GH YLRO UL DOH LSRWH]HORU 0&003 DSDU FX R GHRVHELW  FODULWDWH vQGHRVHEL

vQWUXQ PRGHO DXWRUHJUHVLY FX ODJ GLVWULEXLW Q )LJXUD  VXQW VFRDVH vQ HYLGHQ  SULQ V JH L

GHSHQGHQ HOHQHGRULWHGLQWUHXQHOHYDULDELOH

\ = I  \    \    X 

 \   = I  \  \   X    

\   = I  \    \  X   

)LJXUD

 QVFRSXOHYLW ULLDFHVWRUVXUVHGHGHIRUPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUHVWLPD LVHUHFRPDQG 

  PHWRGD YDULDELOHORU LQVWUXPHQWDOH vQ YHGHUHD vQORFXLULL YDULDELOHL \

  FX R DOWD LQWHQV

FRUHODW FXDFHDVWDGDULQGHSHQGHQW vQUDSRUWFXSHUWXUED LD

 UHDOL]DUHDXQRUWUDQVIRUP ULGHYDULDELOHvQYHGHUHDUHGXFHULLQXP UXOXLDFHVWRUDvQGHRVHEL

vQ PRGHOHOH FX ODJ GLVWULEXLW  7UDQVIRUPDUHD .R\FN OD FDUHQHUHIHULPSUHVXSXQHFDvQFD]XO

PRGHOXOXL  V  UHDOL] P R GHFDODUH FX R XQLWDWH GH WLPS GHFL \  GHYLQH \
  [  GHYLQH [
  V 

 

([SULPDUHDPRGHOFXODJGLVWULEXLWHVWHLQVSLUDW GHGHQXPLUHDGLQOLPEDHQJOH] GLVWULEXWHGODJPRGHO7RWDDGHELQHDU

SXWHDILIRORVLW H[SULPDUHDGHDVW GDW SUHOXDW GLQOLPEDIUDQFH] PRGHOFXvQWkU]LHULHDORQDWH

131
vQPXO LP DFHDVW  QRX  HFXD LH FX R FRQVWDQW  N L FHHD FH UH]XOW  V  VF GHP GLQ HFXD LD LQL LDO 

2E LQHP

       
 \ N\  D
D
ND  [ D  N[ D  N[ D  N [ D  N [ X NX 

 QXUPDVLPSOLILF ULORUvQODQ DMXQJHPODRUHOD LHPDLVLPSO 

\ D
NN\
 D  [ X NX
    

 Q HFXD LD OD FDUH VD DMXQV  IHQRPHQXO PXOWLFROLQLDULW LL SUH]HQW vQ HFXD LD 

HVWHGLPLQXDWvQPDUHP VXU FHHDFHQXVHSRDWHDILUPDLFXSULYLUHODLQGHSHQGHQ DIDFWRUXOXLGH

SHUWXUED LH

([HPSOX

6H FXQRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH VWDWLVWLFH OXQDUH SULYLQG HYROX LD WD[HL VFRQWXOXL [  L D UDWHL

PHGLLDGREkQ]LORUEDQFDUHDFWLYH\ vQLQWHUYDOXOLXQLHPDUWLH

7D[D             

VFRQWXOXL

5DWD             

GREkQ]LL

              

              

              

              

              

              

$FFHSWkQGXVH LSRWH]D SURSXV  GH WHRULD HFRQRPLF  FRQIRUP F UHLD PRGLILFDUHD WD[HL

VFRQWXOXLLQIOXHQ HD] UDWDGREkQ]LLvQSHULRDGDUHVSHFWLY GDULvQSHULRDGHOHLPHGLDWXUP WRDUHD

IRVWDGRSWDWXUP WRUXOPRGHOFXODJGLVWULEXLW
  
\ D
D  [ N[ N [ X 

 Q XUPD HVWLP ULL SDUDPHWULORU FX DMXWRUXO SDFKHWXOXL GH SURJUDPH (;&(/ VDX RE LQXW

XUP WRDUHOHUH]XOWDWH

6800$5<287387  

5HJUHVVLRQ6WDWLVWLFV

0XOWLSOH5 

56TXDUH 

$GMXVWHG56TXDUH 

6WDQGDUG(UURU 

2EVHUYDWLRQV 

    

$129$    

 GI 66 06 )

5HJUHVVLRQ    

5HVLGXDO    

7RWDO    

    

 &RHIILFLHQWV 6WDQGDUG(UURU W6WDW 

,QWHUFHSW    

;9DULDEOH    

;9DULDEOH    

 

132
 

QILQDODUH]XOWDWXUP WRUXOPRGHO

\ =  +  \ +  [ 

W W - W

0RGHOXO FX ODJ GLVWULEXLW FDUH SUHVXSXQH WUDQVIRUPDUHD .R\FN HVWH FRQVLGHUDW UHVWULFWLY

FKLDUULJLGvQFHSULYHWHPRGXOGHDERUGDUHDLQIOXHQ HLvQWkU]LDWH>@

 0RGHOXO $/021 SDUH SULQ FRPSDUD LH PDL IOH[LELO FRQVLGHUkQG LQIOXHQ D UHSDUWL]DW  vQ

WLPSFDILLQGELQHGHVFULV GHXQSROLQRPGHJUDGXOGRL

 $FHDVWD DU vQVHPQD F  HIHFWHOH PRGLILF ULL IDFWRUXOXL GHYLQ WRW PDL SURQXQ DWHSHP VXU FH

vQDLQW P vQ WLPS VH DWLQJH XQ PD[LP GXS  FDUH LQWHQVLWDWHD HIHFWHORU VFDGH 1X HVWH H[FOXV  QLFL

SRVLELOLWDWHD FD EROWLUHD FXUEHL V  ILH LQYHUV  L QLFL VLWXD LD vQ FDUH XQ SROLQRP GH JUDGXO WUHL VDX

PDL PDUH GHVFULH PDL ELQH HYROX LD LQWHQVLW LL LQIOXHQ HL vQWkU]LDWH 6KLUOH\ $OPRQ FRQVLGHU 

ED]kQGXVH SH WHRUHPD OXL :HLHUVWUDVV  F  SDUDPHWULL PRGHOXOXL FX ODJ GLVWULEXLW \  D
 E  [
  

E [ 

   E [    X  SRW IL DSUR[LPD L SULQWUXQ SROLQRP GH JUDGXO L FRUHVSXQ] WRU OXQJLPLL

vQWkU]LHULLODJXOXL

 $VWIHOSHQWUXFD]XOvQFDUHLQWHQVLWDWHDLQIOXHQ HLXUPHD] vQWLPSRIXQF LHUHSUH]HQWDW GH

XQSROLQRPGHJUDGXOGRLDYHPvQYHGHUHH[SUHVLD

E D
D  LD L       

UHVSHFWLYvQFD]XOJHQHUDODFHVWDDUHH[SUHVLD
 
E D
D  LD L  D L     

P OXQJLPHDPD[LP DODJXOXL

 (WDSHOHSUHPHUJ WRDUHDSOLF ULLSURSULX]LVHDSURFHGHXOXLSURSXVGH$OPRQVHUHIHU OD

D VWDELOLUHD QXP UXOXL PD[LP GH SHULRDGH vQ FDUH LQIOXHQ D vQWkU]LDW  HVWH VHPQLILFDWLY 

DYkQGXVHvQYHGHUHIDSWXOF XQQXP USUHDPDUHP!SRDWHP ULFRQVLGHUDELOULVFXOGHDLQFOXGH

LQIOXHQ H LUHOHYDQWH FX HIHFWH QHGRULWH DVXSUD SUHFL]LHL HVWLPDWRULORU vQ WLPS FH XQ QXP U SUHDPLF

ULVF  V  VFRDW  GLQ MRF HIHFWH vQWkU]LDWH VHPQLILFDWLYH GHWHUPLQDQWH DVXSUD YDULDELOHL \ $QDOL]D

VHPQLILFD LHLSDUDPHWULORUvQVHQVXOWHVWXOXLWDUSXWHDILXWLO vQVWDELOLUHDP ULPLLODJXOXL

E  VWDELOLUHD JUDGXOXL SROLQRPXOXL P XWLOL]DW SHQWUX D GHVFULH HYROX LD SDUDPHWULORU vQ

UDSRUW FX vQWkU]LHUHD Q IXQF LH GH QXP UXO SXQFWHORU GH WXUQXU  HVWH VWDELOLW L JUDGXO SROLQRPXOXL

'H H[HPSOX GDF  SH P VXU  FH LQWHUYDOXO GLQWUH GHFODQDUHD FDX]HL L SURGXFHUHD HIHFWXOXL FUHWH

LQIOXHQ D vQFHSH SULQ D FUHWH DWLQJH XQ PD[LP GXS  FDUH GHVFUHWH  VH DSUHFLD]  H[LVWHQ D XQXL

VLQJXU SXQFW GH WXUQXU  VFKLPEDUH GH VHQV DVWIHO vQFkW XQ SROLQRP GH JUDGXO GRL HVWH FRQVLGHUDW

DGHFYDW QWUXFkW L vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL $OPRQ H[LVW  SHULFROXO FD PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWHD V  DIHFWH]H

UH]XOWDWHOHVHUHFRPDQG FDQXP UXOUHJUHVRULORU[

 [
 [
 V ILHFkWPDLPLF

 $FHVWHDVSHFWHRGDW UH]ROYDWHVHSRDWHWUHFHODHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUQDFHVWVFRSDYHP

vQ YHGHUH R HYROX LH D LQWHQVLW LL LQIOXHQ HL vQWkU]LDWH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH SROLQRPXOXL GH JUDGXO GRL

IUHFYHQW XWLOL]DW vQ DSOLFD LL FRQFUHWH E   D
 D  L  D L  vQ FD]XO XQXL  PRGHO FX ODUJ GLVWULEXLW

SHQWUXWUHLSHULRDGHGHvQWkU]LHUH

\ D E
[ E  [
 E [
 E [
 X    

 'DF DYHPvQYHGHUHUHOD LDLRLQWURGXFHPvQRE LQHP

 

 2 IXQF LH FRQWLQX  vQWUXQ LQWHUYDO vQFKLV SRDWH IL DSUR[LPDW  SH vQWUHJ LQWHUYDOXO GH F WUH XQ SROLQRP GH JUDG

FRUHVSXQ] WRU FDUH GLIHU  ID  GH IXQF LH FX R YDORDUH PDL PLF  GHFkW RULFH FDQWLWDWH SR]LWLY  GDW  vQ ILHFDUH SXQFW GLQ

LQWHUYDO>@

133
 

= D + D + D L + D L [ +X =
\  
  
      

= D + D 
 
[  + D
 
L[  + D
 
L [ 
  


QFRQWLQXDUHGHILQLPYDULDELOHOH]
]  ] DVWIHO

= = [
 W -L
L =

= = L[       
 W -L
L =



= = L [
 W -L
L =

0RGHOXOSRDWHILUHIRUPXODWDVWIHO

\ DD
= ! D  =  D = X     

# % # '
(VWLPDWRULL D "  D $  D &  D VXQWRE LQX LFXDMXWRUXO0&003

 3DUDPHWULLPRGHOXOXLLQL LDOVXQWHVWLPD LXUPkQGSURFHGHXOUH]XOWDWGLQWHRUHPDOXL

:HLHUVWUDVVDVWIHO
, ,
ODJ = E
* = D
*
, , , ,
ODJ = E
) = D
* + D
) + D
(
, , , ,     

ODJ = E
( = D
* + D
) + D
(
, , , ,
ODJ = E
+ = D
* + D + D
) (

QFD]XOJHQHUDOvQFDUHODJXOHVWHGHP ULPHN
0 0 0 - 0
E1 = D
/ + N D
. + N D
- 

Q FH SULYHWH DFXUDWH HD HVWLPD LORU DVWIHO RE LQXWH PHQ LRQ P F  PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWHD

FRQWLQX  V  UHSUH]LQWH R SUREOHP  DFHDVWD L SHQWUXIDSWXOF YDULDELOD=UHSUH]LQW RFRPELQD LH

OLQLDU DYDULDELOHORU;FDUHVXQWIUHFYHQWFROLQLDUH/DDFHVWHDVHPDLDGDXJ XQHOHOLPLWHGDWRUDWH

VXELHFWLYLVPXOXLWRWDOVDXSDU LDOFDUHLQWHUYLQHvQRS LXQHDSULYLQGJUDGXOSROLQRPXOXLLP ULPHD

ODJXOXL 7RWXL PRGHOXO $OPRQ SUH]LQW  L R VHULH GH DYDQWDMH ILLQG PDL IOH[LELO vQ VHQVXO F  IDFH

SRVLELO  DOHJHUHD vQWUH GLYHUVH WLSXUL GH LQIOXHQ H vQWkU]LDWH GHVFULVH SULQWUXQ JUDG DGHFYDW DO

SROLQRPXOXLODFDUHVHDGDXJ IDSWXOF YDULDELOD<

 QXDSDUHvQSRVWXUDGHUHJUHVRUHOLPLQkQGXVH

DVWIHO L ULVFXO FRUHO ULL XQXL IDFWRU


\   FX SHUWXUED LD ULVF H[LVWHQW vQ FD]XO RS LXQLL SHQWUX

YDULDQWDFDUHLPSOLF WUDQVIRUPDWD.R\FN

 0RGHOHOHODJSHUPLWDQDOL]DVHPQDOHORU9$5,$%,/(/2535(&8562$5(LRE LQHUHDGH

SUHYL]LXQL ED]DWH SH HYROX LD DFHVWRUD 6WXGLXO HYROX LHL YDULDELOHORU SUHFXUVRDUH OLGHUL D F URU

FDOLWDWH GH D VHPQDOD DSDUL LD XQRU HIHFWH HFRQRPLFH QHGRULWH HSXL]DUHD UHVXUVHORU LQIOD LD

VDWXUDUHD SLH HL HWF OH IDFH GHRVHELW GH XWLOH DQDOL]HL L SURJQR]HL &XQRDWHUHD XQRU DVWIHO GH

YDULDELOH P VXUDUHD vQWkU]LHULL L LQWHQVLW LL HIHFWXOXL ORU DWXQFL FkQG HOH SRW GHWHUPLQD YDULDELOD 

HIHFWSRDWHILDERUGDW SULQPRGHOHGHWLSXOFHORUSUH]HQWDWH

 5HG PPDLMRVH[HPSOHGHYDULDELOHOLGHULSUH]HQWDWHvQSDUDOHOFXYDULDELOHDF URUHYROX LH

VXFFHGHOLGHULORUvQWUXQPRGDVHP Q WRUGXS WUHFHUHDXQXLLQWHUYDOPDLPLFVDXPDLPDUHGHWLPS

134


9DULDELODOLGHUVHPQDO 6XFFHVLXQHDSUREDELO GHHYHQLPHQWHL

HYROX LL

/DSURGXVXO$ 

&UHVFVWRFXULOHODSURGXF WRUL 3UH XO VFDGH  SURGXF LD VWDJQHD]  VDX VH

GLPLQXHD] 

/DSURGXVXO%FRQVLGHUDWQHFHVDU 

6FDGHRIHUWD &HUHUHD QHVDWLVI FXW  FUHWH   SUH XO

FUHWH  SURGXF LD SULYLQG SURGXVXO %

VDXvQORFXLWRULLDFHVWXLDFUHWH

/DSURGXVXO& 

3UH XOFUHWHOHQWGDUFRQWLQXX 6WRFXULOH OD FRQVXPDWRU FUHVF  FHUHUHD

VFDGH

0DVDPRQHWDU FUHWHVHPQLILFDWLY 5DWD GREkQ]LL VFDGH  LQYHVWL LLOH FUHVF

HYHQWXDOWD[DVFRQWXOXLVFDGH UDWDRPDMXOXLVFDGH 3,%FUHWH

&UHWHUDWDGREkQ]LLvQ DUD.FXPRQHG  ,PSRUWXO IOX[XO VSUH DUD . GH FDSLWDO

GHSOLQFRQYHUWLELO  FUHWH PRQHGD ULL . VH GHSUHFLD]  

H[SRUWXOVFDGH

0RQHGD ULL/VHGHSUHFLD]  ([SRUWXO FUHWH  SUH XULOH SURGXVHORU

LPSRUWDWHFUHVF VROGXOEDODQ HLGHSO L

VHDPHOLRUHD] 

0RGHOH9$59HFWRULDODXWRUHJUHVLYH

QWUH YDULDQWHOH PRGHOXOXL /$* DP vQWkOQLW UHSUH]HQWDUHD GH WLS DXWRUHJUHVLY vQ VHQVXO F 

YDULDELODHIHFW HUD FRQVLGHUDW  GHSHQGHQW  GH SURSULLOH QLYHOH UHDOL]DWH vQ WUHFXW L GH SHUWXUED LD

DFWXDO $DGDU
4
\
6
= D8 +
52
7 D5 \
63
5 +X
6


Q FD]XULOH vQ FDUH H[WLQGHP DFHDVW  PRGDOLWDWH GH H[SULPDUH DVXSUD PDL PXOWRU YDULDELOH

HIHFW GHSHQGHQWH GH SURSULXO ORU WUHFXW QH DIO P FHO SX LQ VXE DVSHFWXO UHSUH]HQW ULL IRUPDOH vQ

SUH]HQ D XQXL 9(&725 DO 9$5,$%,/(/25()(&7 H[SULPDW vQ UDSRUW FX SHUIRUPDQ HOH

DQWHULRDUHDOHFRPSRQHQWHORUDFHVWXLDQVFULHUHDPDWULFHDO SHQWUXFD]XODGRX YDULDELOH<  < 

PRGHOXO9$5SRDWHILUHGDWDVWIHO

<< : D <A< E<?;  << :9 < X< :

= + +    
; ;@< ; ;
< : D  E;>= < :9 < X :

 QWURIRUPXO FRQFHQWUDW 

< $%< B C?D 8      

XQGH

< YHFWRUXOYDULDELOHORUHIHFW

$ YHFWRUXOSDUDPHWULORUOLEHUL

% PDWULFHDS WUDW DSDUDPHWULORU

<B C?D YHFWRUXOYDULDELOHORUHIHFWGHFDODWHFXXQX

8 YHFWRUXOSHUWXUED LLORU

 8Q DVWIHO GH PRGHO  HVWH FRQVLGHUDW GH RUGLQXO vQWkL vQWUXFkW P ULPHDPD[LP DODJ

XOXL HVWH HJDO  FX XQX 8Q PRGHO GH RUGLQ N HODERUDW SHQWUX P YDULDELOHHIHFW SRDWH IL SUH]HQWDW

DVWIHO

135
 \G I E I

<G I DI EIAI EI?J L EH I  M
XI G

<G
J D
J     EJ@I
L EH J \G
I HE
= + +
M

M M L L L L L L L L L L \G J E I

X FG

FG
< F
D        F I
E L F H
E M



\ FG E H

5HSUH]HQWDUHD vQWkOQLW  VXE GHQXPLUHD GH PRGHOXO 9$5 LQWHUHVHD]  vQGHRVHEL SHQWUX D

GHVFULH LQWHUGHSHQGHQ D GLQWUH YDULDELOHOHHIHFW 2 DVWIHO GH LQWHUGHSHQGHQ  HVWH UHGDW  SULQWUXQ

DQVDPEOXGHHFXD LLGHUHJUHVLHGHIRUPD

&RQV B  D K D D 9HQLW B DL &RQV B C?D X D 

9HQLW B  E K E D &RQV B C?D EL 9HQLW B C?D XL 

 6LVWHPXO GH HFXD LL DVWIHO UHSUH]HQWDW GHVFULH UHOD LD GLQDPLF  GLQWUH FHOH GRX  YDULDELOH

HQGRJHQHDOHPRGHOXOXL&RQVXPXOL9HQLWXULOH

 QWUXQ YLLWRU FDSLWRO DVWIHO GH UHSUH]HQW UL VXQW GHQXPLWH PRGHOHOH FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH

$VSHFWXO DXWRUHJUHVLY vQWUXQ DVWIHO GH PRGHO DSDUH SH DQVDPEOX vQ VHQVXO F  YDULDELOHOHHIHFW DOH

PRGHOXOXL FRQVXPXO YHQLWXO GHSLQG GH YDORULOH DQWHULRDUH vQUHJLVWUDWH GH DFHOHDL YDULDELOH

FRQVXP L YHQLW &RQVWDWDUHD HVWH L PDL ELQH SXV  vQ HYLGHQ  GDF  SURFHG P OD vQORFXLUHD

YDULDELOHL9HQLWGLQSULPDHFXD LHvQFDUHDSDUHFDIDFWRUFXH[SUHVLDVDGLQFHDGHDGRXDHFXD LHD

PRGHOXOXL

&RQV B  D K D D E K E D &RQV B C?D EL 9HQLW B C?D XL  DL &RQV B C?D X D 

&RQV B  a K a D &RQV B C?D aL 9HQLW B C?D Y D 

9HQLW B  E K E D &RQV B C?D EL 9HQLW B C?D XL    

XQGH

aK  D K D D E K 

aD  D D E D DL 

aL D D EL 

YD D D XL X D 

 Q FDSLWROXO GHVWLQDW SUH]HQW ULL PRGHOHORU FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH &DSLWROXO ; R DVWIHO GH

UHGDUHDPRGHOXOXLHVWHGHQXPLW IRUPDUHGXV 3HQWUXRE LQHUHDGHSURJQR]HLVLPXO ULHVWHIRUPD

FHDPDLFRQYHQDELO LvQDFHVWFD]RUGLQXOPRGHOXOXL9$5HVWHGDWGHP ULPHDPD[LP DODJXOXL

HYLGHQ LDW vQ FD]XO XQHLD VDX D WXWXURU YDULDELOHORU FX HIHFW vQWkU]LDW DIODWH vQ GUHDSWD VHPQHORU GH

HJDOLWDWH (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU SUHVXSXQH DSOLFDUHD 0&003 ILHF UHL HFXD LL GLQ DDQXPLWD

IRUP UHGXV DPRGHOXOXLDXWRUHJUHVLY

 Q FHOH FH XUPHD]  QH UHIHULP OD XQHOH UHFRPDQG UL vQ FH SULYHWH FRQVWUXF LD VSHFLILFDUHD

LXWLOL]DUHDUH]XOWDWHORUPRGHOXOXL9$5

 VHUHFRPDQG FDWHQGLQ DFDLVH]RQDOLWDWHDGDF H[LVW V ILHHOLPLQDWHGLQFDGUXOVHULHL

FURQRORJLFHDVWIHOvQFkWHYROX LDILHF UHLYDULDELOHHIHFWV ILHH[SULPDW H[FOXVLYGHSURSULLOHYDORUL

DOHYDULDELOHLYDULDELOHORUHIHFWGLQWUHFXWODFDUHVHDGDXJ LQHUHQWDSHUWXUED LH

  vQ FH SULYHWH HURDUHD SHUWXUED LD PRGHOXOXL 9$5 IRUPDW GLQ YDULDELOHHIHFW

LQWHUGHSHQGHQWH PHGLD HURULL SHQWUX ILHFDUH GLQWUH HFXD LLOH IRUPHL UHGXVH HVWH HJDO  FX ]HUR LDU

DXWRFRUHODUHDHURULLHVWHH[FOXV PSU WLHUHDSHUWXUED LHLH[SULPDW GHGLVSHUVLLLFRYDULDQ HHVWH

FRQVWDQW  vQ WLPS QX VH PRGLILF  SH GLYHUVH VHFYHQ H GH WLPS $FHVWH FRQGL LL ILLQG vQGHSOLQLWH

HVWLPD LLOHSDUDPHWULORUIRUPHLUHGXVHVXQWFRQVLVWHQWHLDVLPSWRWLFQRUPDOGLVWULEXLWH

  DVSHFWHOH PHQ LRQDWH DQWHULRU DEVHQ D WHQGLQ HL FRQGL LLOH vQGHSOLQLWH GH SHUWXUED LL

UHSUH]LQW  DUJXPHQWH FDUH IDF FUHGLELO  HWDSD WHVW ULL L RIHU  R ED]  VROLG  SURJQR]HORU RE LQXWH FX

DVWIHOGHPRGHOH

QFHSULYHWHOLPLWHOHPRGHOXOXL9$5PHQ LRQ PIDSWXOF 

136
  QX VH ED]HD]  SH WHRULD HFRQRPLF  vQ HWDSD VSHFLILF ULL HVWH FDOLILFDW GUHSW PRGHO

DWHRUHWLF

 OXQJLPHDODJXOXLQXHVWHvQWRWGHDXQDIHUPDUJXPHQWDW 

 LQWHUSUHWDUHDUH]XOWDWHORUHVWLP ULLHVWHGLVFXWDELO 

Q FH SULYHWH DYDQWDMHOH PHQ LRQ P F  HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU HVWH UHODWLY VLPSO  QX

SUHVXSXQHYDULDQWHPDLODERULRDVHDOH0&003LDUSURJQR]HOHVXQWvQJHQHUDOGLQWUHFHOHPDL

EXQHFRPSDUDWLYFXDOWHPRGHOH

0RGHOHDGDSWLYHGHVWLQDWHSUHYL]LXQLL

 /D ED]D PRGHOHORU DGDSWLYH VH DIO  SUH]XP LD FRQIRUP F UHLD SURJQR]HOH HODERUDWH vQ

VXFFHVLXQHSRWILPHQ LQXWHODXQQLYHODSURSLDWGHUHDOLWDWHDSHFDUHRSUHYHVWHVFSULQWURFRQWLQX 

DGDSWDUHvQUDSRUWFXP ULPHDHURULORUGHSUHYL]LXQHFRQVWDWDWHvQWUHFXW

 0RGHOXOvQYDULDQWDVDFHDPDLVLPSO HODERUDW GH5*%URZQSRDWHILGHVFULVSRUQLQGGH

ODUHOD LD

\
B MD  \ B D\ B \ B       

XQGH

\ B SUHYL]LXQHDSHQWUXSHULRDGDW

D SDUDPHWUXDSULRULVWDELOLWD

 $XWRDGDSWDUHD vQ YDULDQWD  HVWH UHDOL]DW  QXPDL vQ UDSRUW FX HURDUHD GH SURJQR]  GLQ

SHULRDGD SUHFHGHQW 'DF  LQHPVHDPDLGHHURULOHDQWHULRDUHGHSURJQR] DWXQFLWUHEXLHV DYHP

vQYHGHUHIDSWXOF SURJQR]DSHQWUXSHULRDGDW\ B DOXDWvQFDOFXOODUkQGXOHLHURDUHDDQWHULRDU 

WGHSUHYL]LXQH\
B  \ B C?D D\ B C?D \ B C?D DDFXPLSURJQR]DSHQWUXSHULRDGDWDOXDWvQFDOFXO

HURDUHD DQWHULRDU  HWF /LPLWkQGXQH GRDU OD HURULOH FRQVWDWDWH SHQWUX GRX  SHULRDGH W L W

FRQVWDW PXRUF SUHYL]LXQHDSHQWUXSHULRDGDWFRUHVSXQ] WRUUHOD LHLGHYLQH

L L
\
B MD  \ B D\ B \ B C?D D\ B C?D \ B C?D  \ B D\ B D\ B C?D D \ B C?D D \ B C?D  
L L
\ B C?D D\ B C?D D\ B C?D D\ B D\ B C?D D \ B C?D D \ B C?D  
L
 D\ B DD\ B C?D D \ B C?D     

 ([WLQ]kQGXQHPDLPXOWvQWUHFXWvQVHQVXOOX ULLvQFDOFXOLDHURULORUFRQVWDWDWHvQXUP FX

SHULRDGHDMXQJHPSURFHGkQGVLPLODUFD]XOXLDQWHULRUODUHOD LDJHQHUDO 

S N Q
T S
\
U P Q = D  - D  \U N T +  - D  \
U N S    
T O R

 0HQ LRQ P F  vQ H[SUHVLD  XOWLPXO WHUPHQ DMXQJH UDSLG OD R YDORDUH H[WUHP GH PLF 

SUDFWLF HJDO  FX ]HUR 3DUDPHWUXO D IDFWRUXO GH SRQGHUDUH HVWH VWDELOLW vQ UDSRUWXO FX LPSRUWDQ D

SH FDUH R DFRUG P HURULORU GH SURJQR]  GH GDW  PDL UHFHQW  'DF  OH DFRUG P R LPSRUWDQ  PDUH

RSW PSHQWUXRP ULPHDSDUDPHWUXOXLDSURSLDW GHXQXLDUGDF GLPSRWULY FRQVLGHU PF HURULOH

PDL vQGHS UWDWH vQ WLPS VXQW GHWHUPLQDQWH SHQWUX SUHFL]LD SUHYL]LXQLL DOHJHP SHQWUX D R P ULPH

DSURSLDW  GH ]HUR 2S LXQHD VH SRDWH ED]D SH XQ FDOFXO GH RSWLPL]DUH D UH]XOWDWHORU XQRU VLPXO UL

SHQWUX GLYHUVH YDORUL DWULEXLWH IDFWRUXOXL GH SRQGHUDUH D Q PRG IUHFYHQW R DVWIHO GH RSWLPL]DUH
W
DUH vQ YHGHUH PLQLPL]DUHD VXPHL S WUDWHORU HURULORU GH SUHGLF LH PLQ  \ Y V X - \
Y V X   vQ FD]XO

GLYHUVHORUYDULDQWHGHVWDELOLUHDQLYHOXOXLIDFWRUXOXLGHSRQGHUDUH

 'H UHPDUFDW F  IXQGDPHQWDUHD PRGHOXOXL DGDSWLY QX DUH vQ YHGHUH DWkW ULJXUR]LWDWHD

PDWHPDWLF  FkW IDFWRUXO SVLKRORJLF FRUHVSXQ] WRU F UXLD JUHHOLOH V YkULWH SRW LQIOXHQ D

FRPSRUWDPHQWXO YLLWRU LDU LQIOXHQ D HVWH FX DWkW PDL SXWHUQLF  FX FkW HURULOH FRQVWDWDWH VXQW PDL

UHFHQWH

 ([HPSOX

/LYU ULOH GH FDUQH W LDW  DX IRVW vQ OXQLOH 9, 9,, 9,,, vQ PHGLH GHPLLWRQH6LWXkQGX

VH vQ WLPS vQ OXQD DXJXVW HODERU P R SURJQR]  SHQWUX OXQD D,;D OD QLYHOXO PHGLHL XOWLPHORU WUHL

137
OXQL\Z [ /DVIkULWXOOXQLLVHSWHPEULHFRQVWDW PFRQIRUPGDWHORUFRPXQLFDWHGHLQVWLWX LLOH

GHVWDWLVWLF XQQLYHOUHDODOOLYU ULORUGHPLLW3UHYL]LXQHDSHQWUXOXQDD;DUH]XOW DVWIHO

\ ]
\
[     PLLW

 0HQ LRQ P F  UHOD LD  HVWH FHD XWLOL]DW  LDU D   Q FRQWLQXDUH GDF  QLYHOXO UHDO

SHQWUXOXQDD;DHVWHGHPLLWDWXQFLSURJQR]DSHQWUXOXQDD;,DVHRE LQHDVWIHO
\ ^
\
[Z  > @  PLLW

 1LYHOXO UHDO SHQWUX OXQD D ;,D ILLQG  GH  PLL W VH SRDWH WUHFH OD RE LQHUHD SUHYL]LXQLL

SHQWUXOXQDD;,,D
\ ^ _
\
[Z Z  >  @  PLLW


_
0RGHOXO DGDSWDWLY  SUH]HQWDW vQ FHHD FH DUH HO HVHQ LDO HVWH LQGLFDW SHQWUX RE LQHUHD GH

SURJQR]H SH WHUPHQ VFXUW (O SRDWH IL DGDSWDW L SHQWUX VHULL FH SUH]LQW  VH]RQDOLWDWH SULQ

LQWURGXFHUHD vQ FDOFXOHOH GH SURJQR]  D LQGLFLORU GH VH]RQDOLWDWH $OWH YDULDQWH GH PRGHOH

DXWRDGDSWLYH DX vQ YHGHUH WUHQGXO L VH]RQDOLWDWHD +ROW :LQWHUV VDX FRHILFLHQWXO GH DXWRFRUHOD LH

SHQWUXVWDELOLUHDQLYHOXOXLFRQVWDQWHLD

 5HG PPRGDOLWDWHDJHQHUDO GHGHILQLUHDXQXLDVWIHOGHPRGHO

c
\
e a f =  \ e + N] e  V e b d a `       

XQGH
g
\ B QLYHOHGHVH]RQDOL]DWHSULQUDSRUWDUHODLQGLFLLGHVH]RQDOLWDWH

]B   WHQGLQ D SUHYL]LRQDW  SH ED]D PRGHOXOXL DGDSWLY GH WLSXO FHOXL SUH]HQWDW



VB C hiMD VH]RQDOLWDWHDDXWRDGDSWDW SULQXWLOL]DUHDXQHLUHOD LLGHIRUPD

\k l j m o
Vk l j m o = D n +  - D  V k l j      

\k l j m o


$QWLFLS ULOHH[SHFWHGYDOXHVvQHFRQRPLHLUROXOORUvQGHPHUVXO

HFRQRPHWULF

 QWUXFkWYD OHJDW  GH SUREOHPD HIHFWXOXL vQWkU]LDW ODJ GDU PDL DOHV GH LGHHD GH ED]  D

PRGHOHORU DGDSWLYH HVWH L FRQVWUXF LD PRGHOHORU FDUH SXQ vQ FHQWUXO DWHQ LHL $17,&,3$5($

DJHQ LORUHFRQRPLFLLPRGLILFDUHDFRPSRUWDPHQWXOXLORUHFRQRPLFvQUDSRUWFXDFHDVWD
K
9DORULOH DQWLFLSDWH [  VH UHIHU  vQ VSHFLDO OD QLYHOXO YLLWRU DO XQRU IDFWRUL GH FDUH GHSLQGH

SURFHVXO HFRQRPLF DIODW vQ DWHQ LD DJHQWXOXL HFRQRPLF &RUHVSXQ] WRU QLYHOXOXL DQWLFLSDW SULQ

PHWRGHQDLYHVDXIRDUWHVRILVWLFDWHSULYLQGIDFWRUXOIDFWRULLGHFDUHGHSLQGHSURFHVXODIODWvQDWHQ LD

DJHQWXOXLHFRQRPLFDFHVWDVHFRQVLGHU F vLPRGLILF FRPSRUWDPHQWXO'HH[HPSOXRFRQMXQFWXU 

SUHYL]LELO  FX HIHFWH DVXSUD SUH XULORU SRDWH IDFH FD R VHULH GH vQWUHSULQGHUL VDX GH IDPLOLL V L

DPSOLILFHFRQVXPXODSURYL]LRQkQGXVHvQH[FHVV UHVWUkQJ SURGXF LDV YkQG YDOXWDvQFXUVGH

GHSUHFLHUHHWF

 3HQWUX HFRQRPHWULH XQ DVWIHO GH FRPSRUWDPHQW SUH]LQW  LPSRUWDQ  vQWUXFkW FRQVWLWXLH R

PDQLIHVWDUH D IDFWRULORU GH QDWXU  SVLKRORJLF  GHVHRUL GHWHUPLQDQ L SHQWUX HYROX LD XQRU IHQRPHQH

 
p
0RGHOHOH DGDSWLYH VXQW PHQ LRQDWH vQ PDMRULWDWHDSDFKHWHORUGHSURJUDPHGHVWLQDWHvQGHRVHELSURJQR]HLvQHFRQRPLH

VXE HWLFKHWD 60227+ (OH PDL VXQW FXQRVFXWH L VXE GHQXPLUHD GH PRGHOH GH QLYHODUH H[SRQHQ LDO  ([SRQHQWLDO

6PRRWKLQJ Q SDUWLFXODU UHSUH]HQW ULOH OD FDUH QHDP UHIHULW   VXQW FXQRVFXWH L VXE GHQXPLUHD

([SRQHQWLDOO\:HLJKWHG0RYLQJ$YHUDJH(:0$



138
vQWUR HFRQRPLH OLEHU  vQ FDUH LQIRUPD LD DUH XQ URO LQFRQWHVWDELO &D XUPDUH vQ XOWLPXO GHFHQLX

PRGHOHOHHFRQRPHWULFHLQFOXGIUHFYHQWvQWUHUHJUHVRULLYDULDELOHFXYDORULDQWLFLSDWH

 3UH]XP LLOH DYXWH vQ YHGHUH VH UHIHU  vQGHRVHEL OD DVSHFWH SUHFXP UROXO H[SHULHQ HL FD L DO

HURULORU V YkULWH vQ WUHFXW VXQW vQ P VXU  V  GHWHUPLQH GHFLGHQ LL FDUH SRW LQIOXHQ D HYROX LD XQRU

LQGLFDWRUL HFRQRPLFL UROXO LQIRUPD LHL vQ YHGHUHD DQWLFLS ULL XQRU HYROX LL vQ HFRQRPLH HVWH WRW PDL

PXOW UHFXQRVFXW DWkW H[SHULHQ D S DQLLOH GLQ WUHFXW FkW L LQIRUPD LLOH DFFHVLELOH DJHQWXOXL

HFRQRPLFSRWILXWLOL]DWHGHF WUHDFHVWDvQPRGUD LRQDOSHQWUXDLP ULDYDQWDMHOH

 Q UDSRUW FX PHWRGHOH GH DQWLFLSDUH IRORVLWH SUHFXP L vQ IXQF LH GH LQIRUPD LD XWLOL]DW 

GHRVHELPDQWLFLS ULQDLYHDQWLFLS ULDGDSWLYH$(DQWLFLS ULUD LRQDOH5(

 $QWLFLS ULOHQDLYHVHFDUDFWHUL]HD] SULQVLPSOLWDWHDFDOFXOHORUFDLSHDFFHSWDUHDSUH]XP LHL

FRUHVSXQ] WRUF UHLDYLLWRUXOYDUHSURGXFHvQWRFPDLSUH]HQWXOVDXWUHFXWXODSURSLDW6LPEROL]kQGFX

qsr
[u t  DQWLFLSDUHD SHQWUX SHULRDGD YLLWRDUH W  VH FRQVLGHU  F  SRW IL RE LQXWH DQWLFLS UL SULQ FDOFXOH

VLPSOHED]DWHSHSUH]XP LDUHSHWDELOLW LL

 'LQWUHYDULDQWHOHGHFDOFXOPHQ LRQ P

xsy
[w v = [w QLYHOXOVHPHQ LQH
{ {
[~ } z - [~ = [~ - [~ | z [~ } z =  [~ - [~ | z 

VDX

[ [ [
= [ = [ PRGLILFDUHDVHUHSHW 
[ [  [ 
s [
[ = [ IOXFWXD LDVH]RQLHU WULPHVWULDO VHPHQ LQH
[

$QWLFLS UL DGDSWLYH  DQWLFLS UL SURJUHVLYH DQWLFLS UL vQ XUPD vQY ULL GLQ HURUL (OHPHQWXO

FDUDFWHULVWLF SHQWUX DFHVW JHQ GH DQWLFLS UL HVWH UHSUH]HQWDW GH FRUHFWXUD DQWLFLS ULORU DQWHULRDUH vQ

UDSRUW FX HURDUHD FRPLV  2 DVWIHO GH PRGDOLWDWH GH DERUGDUH D IRVW vQWkOQLW  L vQ FD]XO PRGHOHORU

DGDSWLYH'LQWUHYDULDQWHOHGHFDOFXOPHQ LRQ PSHQWUXvQFHSXWUHOD LD

s
[ - [ = a [ - [       

XQGHa FRHILFLHQWXOGHDQWLFLSDUHa

vQFDUH
[ = a[ +  - a  [      

 9DORDUHDDQWLFLSDW DSDUHFDRPHGLHSRQGHUDW DYDORULLDFWXDOHLDYDORULLDQWLFLSDWHSHQWUX

s
SHULRDGD DFWXDO  SRQGHULOH ILLQG a L a (YLGHQW SHQWUX a    [ = [  SHQWUX a  
s
[ = [ 

 $OHJHUHDQLYHOXOXLFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHDQWLFLSDUHaGHSLQGHGHLPSRUWDQ DSHFDUHRDFRUG P

QLYHOXOXL UHDO [  VDX QLYHOXOXL DQWLFLS ULL DQWHULRDUH  [  vQ YHGHUHD RE LQHULL GH QRL YDORUL
s
DQWLFLSDWH [ 

 QPRGHOXOHFRQRPHWULFDQWLFLS ULOHDSDUvQSRVWXUDGHIDFWRU

\  D D [ X       

vQFDUH [ FRUHVSXQ] WRUUHOD LHLVHRE LQHDVWIHO

[ a[ ? a [ 

 QORFXLQGH[SUHVLDDQWLFLS ULLSHQWUXSHULRDGDW [ vQUHOD LDUH]XOW F 

\
W
=D

+ D

[a[ W -
+ ( - a )[

W -
]+ X W


DGLF 

 

$QWLFLS ULOHDXWRDGDSWLYHVXQWH[SULPDWHvQGLYHUVHDUWLFROHVDXF U LSULQVLPEROXO$($GDSWLYH([SHFWDWLRQV

139
 ( - a )[ W - 

\ =D + D a[ + D    
W   W - 

 'DF GHFDO PFXXQXUHOD LDRvQPXO LPFXaLRVF GHPWHUPHQFXWHUPHQGLQ

UHOD LDRE LQHP

- ( - a )[ - ( - a )D ( - a )[ ( - a )[
\ =D
+ D a[ - D + D + X - X =

- ( - a )D - ( - a )X
=D
+ D a[ + X
 'DF HIHFWX PXUP WRDUHOHvQORFXLUL

D - ( - a )D =E
  

D a =E 
 

X - ( - a )X =Y
W W - W

UHOD LDGHYLQH

\ = E + E \ + E [ +Y     

6LPLODULWDWHD H[SUHVLHL  FX PRGHOXOGHWLSODJGLVWULEXLWFXGHVFUHWHULDOHLQIOXHQ HLvQ

SURJUHVLH JHRPHWULF  OD FDUH VD DMXQV SULQ WUDQVIRUPDUHD .R\FN HVWH HYLGHQW  $YDQWDMHOH L

OLPLWHOHPRGHOXOXLODJGLVWULEXLWJHRPHWULFVHU VIUkQJGHFLLDVXSUDPRGHOXOXL

 2DOW YDULDQW GHRE LQHUHDYDORULORUDQWLFLSDWHGHWLSDGDSWLYDUHvQYHGHUHHIHFWXOvQWkU]LDW

DOYDORULORUUHDOHGLQWUHFXWSUHOXDWSULQLQWHUPHGLXOXQRUSRQGHULE E E 

[ = E [ + E [ + L + E [     

 (IHFWXO WUHFXWXOXL VH SRDWH HVWRPSD GLQ FH vQ FH PDL PXOW XUPkQG R LQYROX LH vQ SURJUHVLH

DULWPHWLF DVWIHOvQFkWSHQWUXLN E NLELDUSHQWUXL!N E 

 QWUXQDVWIHOGHFD]L NLDUEUHSUH]LQW RFRQVWDQW 

 $FHOHDLHIHFWHSRWSUH]HQWDRLQYROX LHDSXWHULLGHLQIOXHQ vQSURJUHVLHJHRPHWULF >@

[ =
D [       

XQGH

= D l  ( < l < ) 
L
D
L 

QDPEHOHYDULDQWHSRDWHILDYXW vQYHGHUHUHVWULF LDFDVXPDSRQGHULORUV ILHHJDO FXXQX

 $QWLFLS ULUD LRQDOH5(5DWLRQDO([SHFWDWLRQV

 0RGDOLWDWHD GH RE LQHUH D YDORULORU DQWLFLSDWH SULQ PHWRGHOH SUH]HQWDWH DQWLFLS UL DGDSWLYH

VDX FHOH QDLYH HVWH FULWLFDW  GH /XFDV L 6DUJHQW vQWUXFkW VH ED]HD]  SUHD PXOW SH WUHFXW &HHD FH

SURSXQ FHL GRL DXWRUL HVWH vQWRDUFHUHD SULYLULORU VSUH SUH]HQW vQ VHQVXO F  VH FRQVLGHU  UD LRQDO FD

DJHQ LL HFRQRPLFL V  IRORVHDVF  FX SUHF GHUH LQIRUPD LLOH FXUHQWH vQ IRUPXODUHD DQWLFLS ULORU

(OHPHQWXO FDUDFWHULVWLF SHQWUX DQWLFLS ULOH UD LRQDOH vO UHSUH]LQW  YDORULILFDUHD FX GLVFHUQ PkQW D

LQIRUPD LLORU OD FDUH DYHP DFFHV vQ SHULRDGD FXUHQW  vQ YHGHUHD SUHILJXU ULL YLLWRDUHLHYROX LLDXQRU

YDULDELOH IDFWRULDOH Q SHULRDGD DFWXDO  vQ FDUH H[LVW  R SLD  D LQIRUPD LLORU DOLPHQWDW  VLVWHPDWLF

GHLQVWLWX LLVSHFLDOL]DWHRDVWIHOGHDERUGDUHVHLPSXQHGLQFHvQFHPDLPXOW/XFU ULOHSXEOLFDWHSH

WHPDDQWLFLS ULORU5(VXQWQXPHURDVHLDUVROX LLOHSURSXVHVXQWGHRGLYHUVLWDWH 

 Q FHOH FH XUPHD]  QH YRP OLPLWD OD SUH]HQWDUHD DVSHFWHORU GH SULQFLSLX SUHFXP L OD

PRGDOLWDWHDSUDFWLF GHRE LQHUHLLQFOXGHUHvQPRGHOHDXQRUDVWIHOGHDQWLFLS UL

 2H[SULPDUHVLPSO DHFXD LHLFDUHLQFOXGHDQWLFLS ULUD LRQDOHSRDWHILIRUPXODW DVWIHO

< = E[ + X       

XQGH

 

 6 +ROO\ 0 %HQQVWRFN  7KH LPSOLFDWLRQ RI UDWLRQDO H[SHFWDWLRQV IRU WKH IRUHFDVWLQJ DQG WKH VLPXODWLRQ RI HFRQRPLF

PRGHOV/%6

//HLGHUPDQ0DFURHFRQRPHWULFWHVWLQJRIWKHUDWLRQDOH[SHFWDWLRQVDQGVWUXFWXUDOK\SRWKHVLVIRUWKH86-RXUQDORI

0RQGLDO(FRQRP\QR

[]  []  []  [] 

140

[ = 0 (; ) ) M      

XQGH 0  UHSUH]LQW  XQ RSHUDWRU FDUH H[SULP  PHGLD DWHSW ULORU SULYLQG HYROX LD YDULDELOHL ;

FRQGL LRQDW  GH FXQRDWHUHD WXWXURU LQIRUPD LLORU UHOHYDQWH ) DFFHVLELOH DJHQWXOXL HFRQRPLF vQ

SHULRDGDWM

 'H H[HPSOX vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH <   SUH XO JUkXOXL LDU ;  UHFROWD VH SRDWH DFFHSWD F 

DQWLFLS ULOH ED]DWH SH LQIRUPD LLOH WRW PDL QXPHURDVH SULYLQG R UHFROW  VODE  FDUH VH YD RE LQH vQ

DU  GDU L vQ ULOH FX XQ FRQVXP ULGLFDW GH JUkX YRU LQIOXHQ D SUH XO JUkXOXL SH P VXU  FH

LQIRUPD LLOHVXQWFRQILUPDWHGHUHDOLWDWH

9DORDUHD DQWLFLS ULORU SHQWUX SHUIRUPDQ HOH PRGHOXOXL  GHSLQGH GH RUL]RQWXO

SUHYL]LRQDO OD FDUH VH UHIHU  DQWLFLSDUHD UHOHYDQ DLQIRUPD LLORUSULYLQGHYROX LDYDULDELOHL;UHOD LD

GLQWUHHURDUHDGHSURJQR] LLQIRUPD LLOHDFFHVLELOHDJHQWXOXLvQPRPHQWXOXLW>@

 6H FRQVLGHU  F  DJHQWXO HFRQRPLF FDUH VH ED]HD]  vQ DFWLYLWDWHD VD SH DQWLFLS UL UD LRQDOH

FXQRDWH VWUXFWXUD PRGHOXOXL vQ FDUH LQWHUYLQH YDULDELOD ; DQWLFLS ULOH VXQW QHGHSODVDWH vQ PHGLH

GLVSHUVLDHVWHFRQVWDQW LDUHURULOHQXVXQWDXWRFRUHODWH

 $DGDUvQWUHDQWLFLSDUHD[  LYDORDUHDUHDO [  H[LVW UHOD LD

[
= [
+ Y


'DF 

0 (Y ) )=        

(Y )= s

0 )
  
( ) = ( M

0 Y Y ) =   L )
XQGH

Y HURDUHDGHSURJQR] XUPDUHDDQWLFLS ULL

 0HQ LRQ P GH DVHPHQHD F  vQ FD]XO DQWLFLS ULORU vQ ODQ  SHQWUX PDL PXOW GHFkW R

SHULRDG  HURULOH GH SURJQR]  VH FXPXOHD]  DXWRFRUHOD LD DFHVWRUD HVWH SUHVXSXV 6HFRQVLGHU F 

XQSURFHVGHUHYL]XLUHDDQWLFLS ULORUHVWHDDGDUQHFHVDU

 2E LQHUHD DQWLFLS ULORU 5( SULQ XWLOL]DUHD LQIRUPD LLORU FXUHQWH VDX SURYHQLQG GLQ WUHFXW VH

ED]HD]  SH GLYHUVH PHWRGH vQ IXQF LH L GH GRPHQLXO OD FDUH VH UHIHU  YDULDELOD IDFWRULDO  D F UHL

YDORDUH YLLWRDUH XUPHD]  V  ILH LQWURGXV  vQ PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF ,QIRUPD LLOH VXQW GHVHRUL GH

QDWXU FDOLWDWLY FHHDFHLPSOLF PHWRGHGHP VXUDUHGHJHQXOWHVWXOXLFRQMXQFWXUDOYH]L&DSLWROXO

,; (YROX LD DQWLFLSDW  D XQRU LQGLFDWRUL RE LQX L GH OD vQWUHSULQGHUL SRDWH IL DSUHFLDW  DSHOkQG OD

PHGLH

J 
[ = [

XQGH

J SRQGHUHDILUPHLL
@
[   QLYHODQWLFLSDWvQFD]XOILUPHLL

J =  

Q FD]XULOH vQ FDUH VH FXQRDWH GRDU GLUHF LD HYROX LHL XQXL LQGLFDWRU L DFHDVWD HVWH

FRQWUDGLFWRULH GDF  LQIRUPD LLOH SURYLQ GH OD PDL PXOWH ILUPH DWXQFL R UH]XOWDQW  SRDWH IL DYXW  vQ

YHGHUHFD]vQFDUH

J J
[ = ( )
[
( )
- ( )
[
( )


XQGH

HYROX LHSR]LWLY 

HYROX LHQHJDWLY 

141
 $QWLFLS UL SRW UH]XOWD L vQ XUPD DQDOL]HL GH UHJUHVLH RUL GH FkWH RUL LQIRUPD LLOH VXQW GH WLS

QXPHULF ,QVWLWX LL VSHFLDOL]DWH vQ VWXGLXO FRQMXQFWXULL SLH HL vQ HODERUDUHD GH SURJQR]H HWF RIHU 

VLVWHPDWLFYDORULDQWLFLSDWHSULYLQGLQGLFDWRULLHFRQRPLFLUHOHYDQ L 

%,%/,2*5$),(

 %R[ * ( 3 -HQNLQV * 0  7LPH 6HULHV $QDO\VLV )RUHFDVWLQJ DQG &RQWURO +ROGHQ'D\

6DQ)UDQFLVFR

 &XWKEHUWVRQ.+DOO6$SSOLHG(FRQRPHWULFV7HFKQLTXHV:KUHDWRQV/WG

 )RPE\7%5KRGHV*$GYDQFHVLQ(FRQRPHWULFV-$,*UHVV/RQGRQ

 *UDQJHU&:-6SHFWUDO$QDO\VLVRI(FRQRPLF7LPH6HULHV3ULQFHWRQ8QLY3UHVV1<



 *ULIILWKV : -XGJH * &DUWHU +LOO 5  /HDUQLQJ DQG 3UDFWLFLQJ (FRQRPHWULFV -RKQ :LOH\

DQG6RQV

 *XMDUDWL'%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV0F*UDZ+LOO,QF1<

 +DUYH\$&7LPH6HULHV0RGHOV+RZHVWHU1<

 -RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGV0F*UDZ+LOO1<

 0DGGDOD*6,QWURGXFWLRQWR(FRQRPHWULFV0F0LOODQ3XEO

3HFLFDQ(6(FRQRPHWULH(GLWXUD$OO%XFXUHWL

3ORHJ)HGLW$GYDQFHG/HFWXUHVLQ4XDQWLWDWLYH(FRQRPHWULFV$FDG3UHVV

7 Q VRLX2,DFRE$,(FRQRPHWULHDSLFDW (GLWXUD$57(7,&$57%XFXUHWL

 

 2 DFWLYLWDWH GH SLRQLHUDW vQ DFHVW VHQV D UHDOL]DWR LQVWLWXWXO ,)2 GLQ 0QFKHQ  GDU L LQVWLWX LL SUHFXP *DOOXS

&%,,QGXVWULDO7UHQG6XUYH\VHWF

142
 &DSLWROXO9,,,

0RGHOHVWRFKDVWLFHGHSURJQR] 


)XQF LDGHDXWRFRUHOD LH



(YROX LD IHQRPHQHORU HFRQRPLFH VH DIO  VXE LPSXOVXO UHVXUVHORU H[LVWHQWH FDSDFLW LORU

FUHDWH H[SHULHQ HL DFXPXODWH WUDGL LHL FD L D DOWRU IDFWRUL GH QDWXU  H[RJHQ  $VWIHO R DFWLYLWDWH

SURGXFWLY UHDOL]DW ODXQDQXPLWQLYHOLDFUHDWLPSOLFLWRED] FDSDFLW LGHSURGXF LHUHVXUVHGH

PXQF  WHKQRORJLH SHQWUX D DWLQJH L vQ SHULRDGD XUP WRDUH FHO SX LQ DFHODL QLYHO LQYHVWL LLOH

LPSOLF FHOSX LQSkQ ODILQDOL]DUHDSURLHFWXOXLQRLLQYHVWL LLFRQVXPXOFUHHD] RELQXLQ DLGHFL

JHQHUHD]  FRQVXP HWF &D XUPDUH PXOWH GLQWUH SURFHVHOH HFRQRPLFH GHSLQG GH DQWHULRDUHOH ORU

SHUIRUPDQ H DYkQG XQ FDUDFWHU LQHU LDO FDUH vQ OLPEDMXO HFRQRPHWULHL HVWH SXV vQ HYLGHQ  SULQ

DXWRFRUHOD LH

QFHHDFHSULYHWHIDFWRULLH[RJHQLRVFKLPEDUHEUXVF LGHDPSORDUHLQWHUYHQLW vQUkQGXO

DFHVWRUD VH UHSHUFXWHD]  GH FHOH PDL PXOWH RUL vQ PRG WUHSWDW DVXSUD YDULDELOHORU  HIHFW FRUHODWH

GLUHFWGDUPDLDOHVLQGLUHFWFXUHVSHFWLYXOIDFWRU$VWIHORFUHWHUHEUXVF DRIHUWHLXQXLSURGXVSH

SLD  LQIOXHQ HD]  QLYHOXO SUH XOXL vQ VHQVXO F  DFHVWD YD vQUHJLVWUD VF GHUL WUHSWDWH vQ GHFXUVXO

WLPSXOXL DSDUL LD XQHL QRL WHKQRORJLL JHQHUHD]  HIHFWH GLVFRQWLQXH vQ WUHSWH DVXSUD SURGXF LHL L

FRVWXOXLHWF

/XkQGvQFRQVLGHUDUHDVWIHOGHSDUWLFXODULW LDOHFRPSRUWDPHQWXOXLHFRQRPLFSHGHRSDUWH

SUHFXP L SRVLELOLW LOH GH FXDQWLILFDUH L SURJQR]DUH DOH PRGHOHORU ODJ VL DOH PRGHOHORU

DXWRDGDSWLYHSHGHDOW SDUWHHFRQRPHWULFLHQLLDPHULFDQL*HRUJH(3%R[L.*0-HQNLQVDX

HODERUDW VSUH VIkULWXO GHFHQLXOXL  DDQXPLWHOH PRGHOH VWRFKDVWLFH GH SURJQR]  QWUR

IRUPXODUHJHQHUDO XQDVWIHOGHPRGHOVHSUH]LQW DVWIHO

\ = \ + D + D \   + D \   +  + D  \   - E X   -  - E
X 
+ X  

XQGH

\  YDULDELO HFRQRPLF VWD LRQDUL]DW WUHQGXOILLQGH[FOXVGLQGDWH

DE SDUDPHWUL

2EVHUY PF SULPDSDUWHDPRGHOXOXLUHSUH]LQW XQPRGHOOLQLDUDXWRUHJUHVLYLDUFHD

GHD GRXD SDUWH LQFOXGH HURDUHD LQWURGXV  SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO YDORULORU YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH X    vQ
YHGHUHDFRUHFW ULLSURJQR]HORU

8UP WRDUHOH FRQVLGHUHQWH GH QDWXU  HFRQRPLF  L VWDWLVWLF  DX VWDW OD ED]D HODERU ULL XQRU

DVWIHOGHPRGHOH

 SURFHVXO HFRQRPLF GHVFULV GH VHULD FURQRORJLF  HVWH UH]XOWDWXO DF LXQLL PHFDQLVPHORU

LQWHUQH  FHHD FH H[SOLF  QDWXUD DXWRUHJUHVLY  D PRGHOXOXL  SUHFXP L D XQRU LQIOXHQ H GLQ DIDU 

FDUH GDF  H[FOXGHP WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO  L IDFWRULL FDUH R GHWHUPLQ  DF LRQHD]  DFFLGHQWDOVXEIRUPD

XQRULPSXOVXULDOHDWRDUH$FHDVW GLQXUP FDUDFWHULVWLF DSURFHVXOXLFRQIHU PRGHOXOXLXQFDUDFWHU

VWRFKDVWLF

 VHULD FURQRORJLF  UHSUH]HQWkQG PDWHULD SULP  SHQWUX PRGHODUH VH vQFDGUHD]  vQWUXQD

GLQWUHFDWHJRULLOH

 VHULH QHVWD LRQDU  DYkQG WHQGLQ  HYROXWLY  UH]XOWDW DO XQXL SURFHV RPRJHQ

QHVWD LRQDU

 VHULH VWD LRQDU  UH]XOWDW DO XQXL SURFHV VWRFKDVWLF VWD LRQDU DYkQG XQHOH

HOHPHQWH VWDELOH UHSHWDELOH FD GHVI XUDUH L FDUH UH LQXWH GH PRGHO FRQIHU 

SURJQR]HLRED] VROLG LLPSOLF DQVDGHDILSHUIRUPDQW 

 VHULHSXUDOHDWRDUHUH]XOWDWDOXQXLSURFHVJHQHUDWRUGHQXPHUHvQWkPSO WRDUH

 R FODV  GH SURFHVH VWRFKDVWLFH FRQVLGHUDWH XWLOH vQ YHGHUHD DQDOL]HL L SURJQR]HL VHULLORU

FURQRORJLFH R IRUPHD]  SURFHVHOH VWRFKDVWLFH VWD LRQDUH &RPSRUWDPHQWXO XQRU DVWIHO GH SURFHVH

SRDWH IL FDUDFWHUL]DW SULQ IXQF LD GH DXWRFRUHOD LH Q FHHD FH SULYHWH FRPSRQHQWD UH]LGXDO  X  

143


DFHDVWD HVWH SUHVXSXV  FD ILLQG JHQHUDW  GH XQ SURFHV GH ]JRPRW DOE  vQ FDUH ILHFDUH WHUPHQ

XUPHD] RGLVWULEX LHQRUPDO GHPHGLHHJDO FX]HURLGHGLVSHUVLHGLIHULW GH]HURDYkQGSHQWUX


N   FRYDULDQ H HJDOH FX ]HUR  0HGLLOH SRQGHUDWH DOH XQRU DVWIHO GH WHUPHQL SLHUG FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH

XQXL DVWIHO GH SURFHV GH ]JRPRW DOE FRQVWLWXLQG UHSUH]HQW ULVDWLVI F WRDUHDOHXQXLSURFHVDOHDWRU

RELQXLW>@

PRGHOXOHVWHGHILQLWFDXQDJUHJDWFHLQFOXGHLPSXOVXULOHUHFHSWDWHFXvQWkU]LHULGH

S LQWHUYDOH GH WLPS FD L UHDF LLOH H[SULPDWH vQ PHGLH OD DEDWHULOH DFFLGHQWDOH X   GH OD HYROX LD

OLQLDU PDQLIHVWDWHvQXUP FXTLQWHUYDOHGHWLPS

$FHVWH FRQVLGHUHQWH vL J VHVF FRUHVSRQGHQ H UHDOH vQ HFRQRPLH vQWUXFkW FDUDFWHUXO

DXWRFRUHODW DO SURFHVHORU HFRQRPLFH HVWH UHFXQRVFXW LDU vQ FH SULYHWH LQWURGXFHUHD vQ FDOFXOH D

HIHFWHORU SHUWXUED LHL DFHDVWD VH MXVWLILF  GDF  DYHP vQ YHGHUH ILH L QXPDL UHDF LLOH UHSDUDWRULL GH

UHGUHVDUHSHFDUHOHJHQHUHD] DEDWHULOHGHODFHHDFHvQHFRQRPLHVHFRQVLGHU RHYROX LHQRUPDO 

 'LQ SXQFW GH YHGHUH DO WHKQLFLORU GH P VXUDUH FRQVLGHUHQWHOH PHQ LRQDWH SUHVXSXQ FD VHULD

FURQRORJLF  SH FDUH XUPHD]  V  R SUHOXFU P vQ VHQVXO PHWRGHL %R[-HQNLQV V  ILH R YHULILFDUH SULQ

SULVPDXUP WRDUHORUFRQGL LL

 H[LVWHQ DXQXLQXP UVXILFLHQWGHPDUHGHWHUPHQLQ!DVWIHOvQFkWFRHILFLHQ LLVWDWLVWLFL

GHDXWRFRUHOD LHSUHFXPLSDUDPHWULLV SUH]LQWHVWDELOLWDWH

  VHULD YDORULORU V  ILH VWD LRQDU  I U  WUHQG LQFOX]kQG HYHQWXDO FRPSRQHQWH RVFLODWRULL

VH]RQDOLWDWHFLFOLFLWDWH

  )81& ,$ '( $872&25(/$ ,( FDUH UHSUH]LQW  HOHPHQWXO FKHLH SHQWUX vQWUHJ

GHPHUVXO SUHVXSXV GH PRGHOHOH VWRFKDVWLFH GH SURJQR]  SRDWH IL HVWLPDW  GH FRHILFLHQWXO GH

DXWRFRUHOD LHU GHILQLWDVWIHO

  
\  - \  \    - \ 
 
U = 
N      
 \ - \ 

 

XQGH 
U HVWLPDWRUXOFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHDXWRFRUHOD LH 

N  vQWkU]LHUHD ODJXO H[SULPDW  SULQWUXQ QXP U GH XQLW L GXS  FDUH

DSDUHHIHFWXOXQRULPSXOVXULPRGLILFDUHDSURSULXOXLFRPSRUWDPHQWVDXDXQHLFDX]H

 ([HPSOX

 )LH XUP WRDUHD VHULH GH GDWH WULPHVWULDOH SHQWUX WUHL DQL VXFFHVLYL SULYLQG R YDULDELO 

HFRQRPLF 

7DEHOXO

7ULP , ,, ,,, ,9

$QL

    

    

    



([SUHVLD]JRPRWDOEHVWHXWLOL]DW SHQWUXDFDUDFWHUL]DSURFHVHOHSXUDOHDWRDUHvQFDUHQLFLRFRPSRQHQW GHIUHFYHQ 

QX SUH]LQW  R PDL PDUH LPSRUWDQ  GHFkW DOWHOH 6WDUHD GH GHSOLQ  HJDOLWDWH IDFH FD SURFHVXO V  SUH]LQWH DQDORJLL FX

DFHD XQG  GH OXPLQ  vQ FDUH QX SUHGRPLQ  QLFL R FRPSRQHQW  SHQWUX DL GD FXORDUHD HD U PkQkQG DOE  0DL FRQFUHW

GDF  0X   s    ILQLW  YDORULOH OXL X   QX VXQW DXWRFRUHODWH DILUP P F  SURFHVXO JHQHUDWRU GH YDORUL X   HVWH GH

]JRPRWDOELDUGDF vQSOXVHURULOHX  VXQWLQGHSHQGHQWHDILUP PF SURFHVXOHVWHVWULFWGH]JRPRWDOE


3ULQLQGLFHOHNN FRQVHPQ PvQWkU]LHUHDGXS FDUHVHVLPWHLQIOXHQ DODJXOHURULLGLQWUHFXW

5HOD LDGHFDOFXOQXGLIHU VHPQLILFDWLYGHPRGXOGHFDOFXODOFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHFRUHOD LH'HRVHELUHDFRQVW vQ

IDSWXO F  vQ ORF GH [ DSDUH \    vQWUXFkW vQ FD]XO SURFHVHORU VWD LRQDUH s  @s    QXPLWRUXO GHYLQH
\ \

"
%
! \
- \ QXP UXOJUDGHORUGHOLEHUWDWHVHVLPSOLILF 
#
#$

144


(YLGHQW QXP UXO GH WHUPHQL HVWH PXOW SUHD PLF GDU IDFHP DEVWUDF LH GH DFHDVW  SULP 

FRQGL LHvQWUXFkWXUP ULPV IDFLOLW PvQ HOHJHUHDHWDSHORUGHFDOFXOVXILFLHQWGHODERULRDVHSHQWUXD

QXPDLvQF UFDH[SXQHUHDFXFDOFXOHSUHOXQJLWH

 'DF QHUHIHULPODFHOHODOWHFRQGL LLDWXQFLFDOFXOXOFRHILFLHQ LORUGHDXWRFRUHOD LHSHQWUXN 

    SUHFXP L WHVWDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL DFHVWRUD RIHU  U VSXQVXUL XWLOH vQ YHGHUHD FDUDFWHUL] ULL

VHULHL

 3HQWUX GDWHOH H[HPSOXOXL FRQVLGHUDW WDEHOXO  RE LQHP XUP WRULL FRHILFLHQ L GH

DXWRFRUHOD LH
- / 3 *+( ( ' - ( 3 *+( ( ' 4 - 2 3 *+( ( ' - / 3 *+( ( ' 4 4 - (,( 3 *+( ( ' - (10 3 *+( ( '
) ) ) ) ... ) )
U
* = - ( 3 ( ' & - / 3 ( ' & 3 ( ' & =    
*+( 4 *+( 4 4 - (,( *+(
) ) ... )

  -      -     +   -      -     +  +   -      -    
U = 5 5 5 =    

  -     +   -     +  +   -    

=  
U
6

=  
U
7

7HQGLQ DGHFUHWHUHHYLGHQW DYDORULORUVHULHLDVSHFWFRQILUPDWGHGHVFUHWHUHDUHODWLYOHQW 

DFRHILFLHQ LORU U:  U9  U8 VHPQDOHD] RVHULHFURQRORJLF QHVWD LRQDU 

3HQWUXHOLPLQDUHDDFHVWXLLQFRQYHQLHQWSURFHG PODFDOFXOXOGLIHUHQ HORUGHRUGLQXOvQWkL

   6HULDGHYDORULDVWIHOUH]XOWDW HVWHSUH]HQWDW vQWDEHOXOXUP WRU

7DEHOXO

7ULPHVWUXOW ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,,

9DORULVWD LRQDUL]DWH\;           

&RHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHRE LQX LSHQWUXQRLOHYDORULDOHOXL \ < SUH]HQWDWHvQWDEHOXO

VXQW U = - U = - U = - 

  

'HVFUHWHUHD UDSLG  D FRHILFLHQ LORU VSUH QLYHOH DSURSLDWH GH ]HUR FRQILUP  VWD LRQDULWDWHD

VHULHL0HQ LRQ PF QHDPOLPLWDWODFRHILFLHQ LL U=   U>  U? vQWUXFkWVHULDHVWHPXOWSUHDVFXUW 'H

UHJXO VHGHWHUPLQ  U@ SHQWUXN 

7LSRORJLDPRGHOHORUVWRFKDVWLFHLFDUDFWHUL]DUHDVWDWLVWLF DDFHVWRUD

QUDSRUWFXVXUVDFDUHDOLPHQWHD] SUHYL]LXQHDGHRVHELP

PRGHOHDXWRUHJUHVLYH$5

 GHRUGLQXOvQWkL$5 \ A = DE + DC \ A BDC + X A 

 GHRUGLQXOGRL$5 \ =D + D \ + D \ +X 
W   W -  W - W

vQUDSRUWFXGLVWDQ DvQWLPSDYDORULORUWUHFXWHDOHYDULDELOHLFDUHGHWHUPLQ
F YLLWRUXOQLYHO

PRGHOHGHPHGLHPRELO 0$

 GHRUGLQXOvQWkL0$ \ G = \ - EI X G HJI + X G 

 GHRUGLQXOGRL0$ \ K = \ - EN X K L N - EM X K L M + X K 
O
vQUDSRUWFXGLVWDQ DvQWLPSODFDUHVHVLPWHLQIOXHQ DSHUWXUED LHL 


P
'HQXPLUHDGHPHGLHPRELO DUHvQYHGHUHIDSWXOF VXPDDOJHEULF DHOHPHQWHORU E Q XR S Q N TUHSUH]LQW 

QXP U WRUXO XQHL PHGLL SRQGHUDWH LSRWHWLFH SRQGHULOH ILLQG E E  E  DL F UHL WHUPHQL JOLVHD]  SH P VXUD FH W
  N

FUHWH 8OWHULRU FRQGL LD ET =   D IRVW XLWDW  DVWIHO vQFkW PRGHOXO 0$ (T )  UHSUH]LQW  XQ DJUHJDW GH T HOHPHQWH

FXUROVHPQLILFDWLYvQHYROX LDYDULDELOHL\

145
 PRGHOHPL[WHDXWRUHJUHVLYHLGHPHGLHPRELO $50$STUHSUH]HQWkQGRFRPELQD LH

DDPEHORUVXUVHGHFUHWHUHYH]LUHOD LD

 PRGHOH QHVWD LRQDUH DXWRUHJUHVLYH L GH PHGLH PRELO  $5,0$S G T UHSUH]HQWkQG R

YDULDQW  D PRGHOHORU PL[WH YH]L UHOD LD  SULQ FDUH VH VSHFLILF  H[LVWHQ D WUHQGXOXL vQ FDGUXO

VHULHL FURQRORJLFH LQL LDOH P ULPHD G LQGLFkQG RUGLQXO GLIHUHQ HL FDUH D GXV OD YDORUL VWD LRQDUH

'H UHJXO  GLIHUHQ HOH GH RUGLQXO vQWkL GLQWUH WHUPHQLL VHULHL G\ V = \V - \V U T  FHO PXOW GLIHUHQ HOH GH
ZY X
RUGLQXOGRL G ] ^ = G\ \ - G\ \ [ W UHXHVFV HOLPLQHWUHQGXOGLQGDWH

Q WDEHOXO  VXQW SUH]HQWDWH SULQFLSDOHOH WLSXUL GH PRGHOH Q XOWLPD FRORDQ  D WDEHOXOXL

HVWH VSHFLILFDW  IRUPD FRQFHQWUDW  D PRGHOXOXL XWLOL]kQGXVH RSHUDWRUXO % GH WUDQVODWDUH vQWUR

SHULRDG  GLQ WUHFXW EDFNZDUG VKLIW RSHUDWRU 5ROXO XQXL DVWIHO GH RSHUDWRU HVWH GHVFULV GH

HJDOLW LOH

%\ V = \V U T   %X V U T  = XV
_ b c
% \a = \a ` _   % X d = X d b 

0RGHOXO$5GHYLQH
f
\ e = Dh + D g %\ e + Df % \ e + X e 

$FHVWDPDLSRDWHILVFULVDVWIHO
k
\ i  - D l % - D k %  = Dj + X i 

VDXvQWURIRUP PDLFRQFHQWUDW 

D % \ m = Dn + Xm 

Q FRQWLQXDUH VH SRDWH SURFHGD OD HOLPLQDUHD PHGLHL  \  GLQ FDGUXO YDORULORU VWD LRQDUH

\  FHHD FH HVWH HFKLYDOHQW FX HOLPLQDUHD SDUDPHWUXOXL D  FD] vQ FDUH PRGHOXO vQ IRUPD
W 

FRQFHQWUDW GHYLQH

D %  \ =X 
W W

QFD]XOPRGHOHORU0$TRSHUDWRUXO%HVWHXWLOL]DWvQWURIRUP VLPLODU 

2 SRVLELOLWDWH GH D UHGD XQ SURFHV VWD LRQDU $5S VH ED]HD]  SH IDSWXO F  SURFHVXO HVWH

5('8&7,%,/ OD GHSHQGHQ H vQ UDSRUW FX X p q o  $VWIHO GDF  FRQVLGHU P SURFHVXO $5 vQ FDUH

SHQWUX D r =   \p = D \p q + X p  SXWHP DILUPD F  OD UkQGXO V X \p q = D \p q s + Xp q  UHVSHFWLY

\x w t = Dv \x w u + X x w t  HWF /LPLWkQGXQH OD HJDOLW LOH SULYLQG \ y  L \ | { z  SURFHG P OD vQORFXLUHD OXL

\| { z FXH[SUHVLDVDvQHJDOLWDWHD \ | = D z \ | { z + X | 5H]XOW F 


\
W
=D

(D \ W -
+X
W -
) + XW =D

\
W -
+X
W
+D X
 W -


2 H[SUHVLH JHQHUDO  vQ XUPD vQORFXLULORU VXFFHVLYH SULYLQG \ | {  \ | { }  HWF SRDWH IL UHGDW 

DVWIHO
~

\ = D X       


vQFDUHSHQWUX_D_HOHPHQWHOHSRQGHUDWHDOHVXPHLFRQYHUJF WUH]HUR

 3URFHGkQGVLPLODUVHSRDWHDU WDFDXQSURFHV0$TSRDWHILUHGDWFDXQDJUHJDWGHWHUPHQL

\| {  $VWIHO GDF  FRQVLGHU P F \ =   SURFHVXO 0$ GHYLQH \ = -E X + X  GH XQGH UH]XOW 

F  X | = \| + Ez X | { z  UHVSHFWLY X = \ + E X HWF

 QORFXLQGvQSURFHVXO0$SH X FXH[SUHVLDVD X = \ + E X RE LQHP


\ =X - E \ +E X  = -E \ -E X +X 
W W  W -  W -  W -  W - W



6HPQXOQHJDWLYDOSDUDPHWUXOXLEHVWHSXUVLPEROLF3DUDPHWUXOYDDYHDVHPQXOUH]XOWDWvQXUPDHVWLP ULL

146

LvQDFHVWFD]SHQWUX_E_DMXQJHPvQXUPDvQORFXLULORUVXFFHVLYHDYDORULORU X ODYDORUL E X 

FDUH FRQYHUJ UDSLG F WUH ]HUR DVWIHO vQFkW SURFHVXO 0$T H[SULPDW vQ UDSRUW FX \  VD ILH

FRQVLGHUDW,19(56$%,/

7DEHOXO

7LSXOGH )RUPDH[SOLFLW  )RUPDFRQFHQWUDW 

PRGHO

$XWRUHJUHVLY
\ = \ + D + D \ + D \ + + D \ +X  D %  \ = X 
$5S
GHPHGLH

PRELO  \ = \ +X -E X -  - E X  \ = E  % X 
W W  W - T W -T W W

0$T

0L[W

DXWRUHJUHVLY
\ = D + D \ +  + D \ + \ - E X -  - E X +X D % \ = E % X 
LGHPHGLH

PRELO 

0L[W
 D %G \ = E %X 
QHVWD LRQDU

 Q YHGHUHD FDUDFWHUL] ULL SURFHVHORU $5 0$ L $50$ DYHP vQ YHGHUH PHGLD GLVSHUVLD L

FRYDULDQ D

6  FRQVLGHU P SHQWUX vQFHSXW PRGHOXO DXWRUHJUHVLY vQ IRUPD VD FHD PDL VLPSO  UHVSHFWLY

SURFHVXO$5

\ = D + D \ J + X 

XQGH X UHSUH]LQW YDULDELODUH]LGXDO GHQDWXU DOHDWRDUHQHFRUHODW GHPHGLH]HURLGHGLVSHUVLH

FRQVWDQW 

 3HQWUXXQDVWIHOGHSURFHVDYHPvQYHGHUHXUP WRDUHOHSUH]XP LL

 LUXO YDORULORU \  W     Q UHSUH]LQW  R VHFYHQ  XQ HDQWLRQ GH Q YDORUL FHHD FH

IDFHFDSDUDPHWULLRE LQX LV UHSUH]LQWHHVWLP ULDOHDGHY UDWHORUYDORUL

 GHQVLWDWHD GH UHSDUWL LH HVWH DFHHDL vQ GLYHUVHOH VHFYHQ H HDQWLRDQH GH YDORUL \  ILLQG

LGHQWLF FXFHDFDUHVDURE LQHSHQWUXDQVDPEOXOYDORULORU \ W QRE LQkQGXVHDFHHDL

PHGLH L GLVSHUVLH LDU FRYDULDQ D QHGHSLQ]kQG GH YDULDELOD WLPS FL QXPDL GH P ULPHD ODJXOXL

vQWkU]LHULL$DGDUDFHVWDHVWHXQSURFHVVODEVWD LRQDUFDUDFWHUL]DWSULQ

 0HGLD

0  \  = 0 D + D \ + X  = D + D 0  \    

vQWUXFkW0X LDUSHQWUXGLYHUVHOHVHFYHQ H \ PHGLDHVWHDFHHDL

 QUHOD LDGDF L]RO PPHGLDRE LQHP

D

0 \ = 
- D

'DF FRQVLGHU PF  D =  FHHDFHDUvQVHPQDV OXDPvQFDOFXOGRDUDEDWHULOHYDORULORU \ 



GHODFRQVWDQWD D RE LQHP

0  \  =  

'LVSHUVLD

= 0 >D \ + X  - 0  \ @ 
=s

= D s
s +s
( )

 
vQWUXFkW 0  \  =   0 X  =s LDU X QXGHSLQGHGH \ 
X

147

 'DF DYHPvQYHGHUHF  s = s SURFHVXOILLQGVWD LRQDUUH]XOW F 

 s
s \ =       
- D

 &RYDULDQ D

FRY \ \  = 0 > \ - 0 \   \ - 0 \ @ =
W W - W W W - W -

= 0 >D \ +X -   \ - @ =
 W - W W -


= 0 D \ +X \  =  
 W - W W -


=D 0 \  + 0 X \ 
 W -C W W -

 
=D 0 \  =D s
 W -  \

vQWUXFkW X L \ QXVXQWFRUHODWH s = s 

 2DERUGDUHVLPLODU D FRY\ \  FRQGXFHOD FRY\ \  =D
s UHVSHFWLY

FRY\ \  =D
s       

 2 FRQVHFLQ  D FDUDFWHUL] ULORU SULQ SULVPD PHGLHL GLVSHUVLHL L FRYDULDQ HL VH U VIUkQJH

DVXSUD DQDOL]HL HYROX LHL FRHILFLHQ LORU HVWLPD L GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U  SHQWUX N     

FRYN 
&RUHVSXQ] WRUUHOD LHLFRHILFLHQWXO r N = UHVSHFWLYHVWLPD LDVDHVWHGHIRUPD
FRY 



D s
FRY \ \  N
U = = = D    
N  
s s

vQWUXFkWFRYNDGLF  FRY \ \  = D s FRUHVSXQ] WRUUHOD LHL

 'HRDUHFHSURFHVXOHVWHVWD LRQDU _ D _<  DFHDVWDIDFHFDSHP VXU FH N YDORULOHOXL

U  V  VFDG  vQ SURJUHVLH JHRPHWULF  F WUH ]HUR Q FD]XO vQ FDUH D <   RE LQHP HVWLPD LL U 

DOWHUQDWLYHFDVHPQGHVFULLQGRLQYROX LHGHWLSGLQ LGHILHU VWU X

 2DERUGDUHVLPLODU SHQWUXSURFHVXO$5FRQGXFHODLQGLFDWRULL

 0HGLD

D

0 \ =       
W
- D -D
 

 

'LVSHUVLD


s = FRY   = 0 > \ D \ + D \ +X @  
\ W  W -  W - W

 &RYDULDQ D

FRY \ \  = 0 >\ D \ +D \ +X @ =
W W - W -  W -  W - W
 
= D FRY   + D FRY
 

5HDPLQWLPIDSWXOF 

FRY = FRY \  \ 


FRY = s 
\

$WXQFL

FRY \ \  = 0 >\ D \ + D \ +X @ =
W W - W -  W -  W - W
 
= D FRY + D FRY  
 

148
 0RGXO vQ FDUH HYROXHD]  FRHILFLHQ LL U  WU GHD]  H[LVWHQ D XQRU DQDORJLL vQ HYROX LD

YDORULORU \  \  \  FDUH GHYLQ WRW PDL SX LQ HYLGHQWH SH P VXU  FH GLVWDQ D vQ WLPS FUHWH &D

XUPDUHSURFHVXO$5HVWHFRQVLGHUDWGHPHPRULHOXQJ 

 3URFHVXO0$HVWHLHOFDUDFWHUL]DWGHDFHHDLLQGLFDWRUL

 0HGLD

0  \  = 0  \ - E X + X  = \     

QWUXFkW 0 X  = 0 X  =  
W W -

'LVSHUVLD

= 0 > \ - E X + X  - 0  \ @ = 0 >X @
s

- E X =

= 0 >X - E X X @=
+ E X 

 + E 
=s +E
s =s

 
QWUXFkW 0 X X  =  LDU s =s 
W W - X X

FRY \  

&RYDULDQ D

\  = 0 > \ + X 



 - 0  \  \ + X - 0  \ @ =

 

 





-E X -E X
 
= 0 X X -E X X -E X +E X X  = -E s

FRY \  \
 = 0 >X - E X X -E X
@ =      

QWUXFkW GDW  ILLQG LQGHSHQGHQ D YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH vQ UDSRUW FX SURSULLOH VDOH YDORUL GLQ

WUHFXWFRYDULDQ HOHVHDQXOHD] SHQWUXGLVWDQ HGLQWUHYDORULN!

FRYN 
 (VWLPD LD IXQF LHL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH UN =  GHYLQH GDF  DYHP vQ YHGHUH UHOD LLOH
FRY

    
LSHQWUX 0$ () N 

  
-E s -E
U = =      



s  + E  + E

LDUSHQWUXN! U =  YH]LUHOD LD


 $DGDU SURFHVXO 0$ ()  VH FDUDFWHUL]HD]  SULQWUR P ULPH VHPQLILFDWLY  DFRHILFLHQWXOXL U 

GXS  FDUH SHQWUX N !  YDORULOH OXL U  SUH]LQW  R F GHUH EUXVF  VSUH YDORUL QHVHPQLILFDWLYH

DSURSLDWHGH]HUR8QDVWIHOGHSURFHVSRDWHILFDUDFWHUL]DWFDILLQGGHPHPRULHVFXUW 


 3URFHGkQG VLPLODU SHQWUX D FDUDFWHUL]D SURFHVXO 0$ ( )  DMXQJHP OD FRQFOX]LD F  QLYHOXO

HVWLPD LLORUOXL U GHYLQHQHVHPQLILFDWLYGHvQGDW FHN!

 3URFHVXO$50$

 0HGLD

 'HFL 0  \   =
0 \

W
 = 0 D

LDUSHQWUX D

+ D \


W -


-E X
 W -

 0  \  =  
+X
W
 =D

+ D 0 \
 W
  

- D

'LVSHUVLD




 
s = 0 >D \ +X -E X  - 0 \ @ =
\  W - W  W - W

= D s

 
\  - D E 0  \
  W -
X
W -
 +s

X
+E


s

X
  

                 
vQFDUHD =   0  \  =  


WLLQG F  0 \ X  = 0 > D \ X @ = 0 X  =s  LDU GLVSHUVLD HVWH


+X +E X

FRQVWDQW SHGLYHUVHVHJPHQWHGHYDORULDOHOXL \ YRPRE LQH

s


\   =D


s
\

+s
X

 -D E
 
++E


 

149
 5H]XOW F 

s

\  =
+ E



- D
- D E



 
s

X
     

 &RYDULDQ D

FRY \
W
\
W -
 =
( + DE )(D

-D


+E

)
s

X
= D s


\
 +E s


X
 

QFD]XOvQFDUH N  

FRY \         
 \  = D FRY \  \     


   
QFHHDFHSULYHWHDXWRFRUHOD LD LQkQGVHDPDGHUHOD LLOHLUH]XOW F 

U

=
 + D

+ E
   E  D

- D
+ E

E

    

QFD]XOvQFDUHN!

= D U         

!
U 

$O WXUL GH HVWLPDWRULL FRHILFLHQ LORU GH DXWRFRUHOD LH  U   SUH]LQW  LQWHUHV vQGHRVHEL vQ

HWDSHOHGHVSHFLILFDUHLHVWLPDUHDOHPRGHOXOXLLFRHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHSDU LDO  F " 

#
 3HQWUX D RE LQH YDORULOH DFHVWRU FRHILFLHQ L DVHP Q WRUL vQ FHHD FH SULYHWH LQWHUSUHWDUHD FX

( S ) DYHPLQYHGHUHSURFHVXO $5 ( ) 

%
SDUDPHWUL D GLQPRGHOXO $5

$
' &
 &RUHVSXQ] WRU UHOD LLORU  L  FRY = D FRY + D FRY  UHVSHFWLY

(
FRY = D FRY + D FRY  UHOD LL FDUH vPS U LWH HOHPHQW FX HOHPHQW OD GLVSHUVLH  FRY

UHDPLQWLQGXQH IRUPXOD GH GHILQLUH D FRHILFLHQWXOXL U  FRQGXF vQ FD]XO UHOD LHL  OD

HJDOLWDWHD

FRY  FRY 
= D + D     
  
FRY   FRY  

FRYN 
 'DF DYHPvQYHGHUHIDSWXOF  U = UH]XOW F 

) ) *)
N FRY

U = D + D U 

, ,+
'HFL

D
U =        
- D

QFHHDFHSULYHWHUHOD LDYRPRE LQH

FRY   FRY  
= D + D 
FRY     FRY  

'HFL

U. . -- = D + D U        

&HHDFHFRQGXFHOD

/ 0 0/ / 0/
/ /
D D
U = D + D = + D     
- D - D

 5HOD LLOH  L  VXQW FXQRVFXWH L VXE GHQXPLUHD GH HFXD LLOH <XOH:DONHU

$FHVWH HFXD LL RIHU  SRVLELOLWDWHD GH D RE LQH QHFXQRVFXWHOH D  L D

 
 GLQ SURFHVXO $5 ( )  SH ED]D

YDORULORUOXL U L U 
 

 ([WLQ]kQGGHPHUVXOSHQWUXSURFHVXO $5
1 () vQFDUH

FRY = D 453 4 FRYN - M  = D FRY + D 3 2 FRY + D  1

RE LQHPvQXUPDvPS U LULLWHUPHQLORUODFRYUHOD LD

150
 U 7 6 6 786
= D U        

vQFDUH U

=  L U :9 9 = U 

= = > ; =? ; < =? < =

6LVWHPXOGHHFXD LLFDUHVHIRUPHD] vQFD]XOSURFHVXOXL $5

;= <;
() HVWHXUP WRUXO

B @ BD@ B C A BDA @ @ B A@
N =   U =D U + D U + D U =D + D U + D U 

G F EIF G EIG E H F G GF E
N =   U =D U + D U +D U =D U +D +D U  

L K J
N =   U =D U +D U +D U =D U + D U +D 


O
QFDGUXOVLVWHPXOXLGHHFXD LLSDUDPHWULLOLEHUL D  D  D UHSUH]LQW FRHILFLHQ LLGH

M
DXWRFRUHOD LH SDU LDO  F  *HQHUDOL]kQG SHQWUX FRYN  =
PQN P D FRY N - M   N! VH RE LQH vQ XUPD

S R TV W R S U R
vPS U LULLODFRYH[SUHVLD

  U = D U  N .    

6SHFLILFDUHDLGHQWLILFDUHD

X


 'DW  ILLQG YDULHWDWHD PRGHOHORU VWRFKDVWLFH YH]L WDEHOXO  HVWH QHFHVDU  HWDSD

VSHFLILF ULL vQFDUHF XWDPU VSXQVODXUP WRDUHOHvQWUHE UL

FHWLSGHPRGHODOHJHP"

 FDUH HVWH RUGLQXO PRGHOXOXL VDX DOWIHO VSXV OD FH QLYHO DO LQGLFLORU S UHVSHFWLY T QH

RSULP"

&RQFUHW SHQWUX H[HPSOXO FRQVLGHUDW YH]L WDEHOXO  XUPHD]  V  VWDELOLP GDF  PRGHOXO

HVWH GH WLS $5 0$ $50$ VDX $5,0$ QWUXFkW VD FRQVWDW vQ HWDSD SUHFHGHQW  F  VHULD SUH]LQW 

WHQGLQ  LDU WHQGLQ D D IRVW HOLPLQDW  GXS  FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO vQWkL DFHVWH LQIRUPD LL

VXQW XWLOH VSHFLILF ULL PRGHOXOXL DFHVWD VLWXkQGXVH vQ FODVD PRGHOHORU QHVWD LRQDUH LDU RUGLQXO

GLIHUHQ HORU GHVWLQDWH VWD LRQDUL] ULL HVWH G   $U PDL XUPD V  VWDELOLP L QLYHOXO LQGLFLORU S L T

SHQWUXDGHILQLFRPSOHWIRUPDPRGHOXOXL$5SLVDX0$T

3HQWUX D GD U VSXQV vQWUHE ULORU IRUPXODWH L LPSOLFLW SHQWUX D VSHFLILFD IRUPD PRGHOXOXL

DYHPvQYHGHUHXQHOHFRQVLGHUHQ HWHRUHWLFHSUH]HQWDWHvQSDUDJUDIXOSUHFHGHQW

&ULWHULLOHVHED]HD] SHXUP WRDUHOHVHPQDOH

D IXQF LDGHDXWRFRUHOD LHLDQDOL]DPRGLILF ULORUFRHILFLHQ LORUGHDXWRFRUHOD LHSHQWUXN 

Y


E DQDOL]D FRPSDUDWLY  D HYROX LHL FRHILFLHQ LORU GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U  L D FRHILFLHQ LORU GH

DXWRFRUHOD LHSDU LDO  F Z SHQWUXN 

F Z
DQDOL]D FRPSDUDWLY  D HYROX LHL FRHILFLHQ LORU GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U  L D FRHILFLHQ LORU GH

DXWRFRUHOD LHSDU LDO  F Z SHQWUXN 

G DSUHFLHUHDSRVLELOLW LORUGHHYROX LHvQWLPSDOHIHQRPHQXOXLHFRQRPLF LQkQGVHDPDGH

SDUWLFXODULW LOH DFHVWXLD FRQMXQFWXUD HFRQRPLF  L VFKLPE ULOH vQ WUHFXW L YLLWRU DOH

YDULDELOHORUH[RJHQHSUHFXPLGHUH]XOWDWHOHXQRUVWXGLLVLPLODUHDQWHULRDUHH[SHULHQ D

LLQWXL LDHFRQRPHWULFLDQXOXLGH LQXQUROLPSRUWDQW

3HQWUX R FkW PDL FRUHFW  VSHFLILFDUH D PRGHOXOXL HVWH QHFHVDU FD FHO SX LQ GRX  GLQWUH FHOH

WUHLFULWHULLV ILHOXDWHvQFRQVLGHUDUH

[ ]^ \
QDLQWHGHDDERUGDPRGDOLWDWHDGHDSOLFDUHDFULWHULLORUHVWHQHFHVDUV PHQ LRQ PF IXQF LD

GH DXWRFRUHOD LH VH UHIHU  OD LQWHQVLWDWHDDQDORJLHLGLQWUH \ L \ SHQWUXN &RUHORJUDPD

_


 Q XQHOH OXFU UL HVWH XWLOL]DW WHUPHQXO LGHQWLILFDUH vQ VHQVXO DWULEXLW GH QRL VSHFLILF ULL QWUXFkW LGHQWLILFDUHD DSDUH

vQWUXQ FDSLWRO XUP WRU FD HWDS  GLVWLQFW  vQ PRGHODUHD HFRQRPHWULF  SUHIHU P V  XWLOL] P QR LXQHD GH VSHFLILFDUH D

YDULDELOHORUDIXQF LHLVDXGHHODERUDUHDPRGHOXOXL

151
 BB$5
BB$5
$5
$5

` `
DXWRFRUHOD LDU a DXWRFRUHOD LDU a
)LJ )LJ

BB$5 BB0$

$5 0$

` `
DXWRFRUHOD LDSDU LDO F a DXWRFRUHOD LDU a
)LJ
)LJ

UHG  VXJHVWLY PRGLILFDUHD FRHILFLHQ LORU GH DXWRFRUHOD LH SH GRPHQLXO ORU GH GHILQL LH VLWXDW vQWUH

  SHQWUX P ULPL DOH ODJXOXL FDUH QX GHS HVF GH UHJXO   LQWHUYDOH YH]L ILJXULOH  



3HQWUX HWDSD VSHFLILF ULL SUH]LQW  LPSRUWDQ  GRDU P ULPHD FRHILFLHQ LORU QX L VHPQXO

\
DFHVWRUDDVWIHOvQFkWSR]L LDORUSHJUDILFvQUDSRUWFXD[DRUL]RQWDO PDLSX LQLPSRUW 

&RHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH SDU LDO  F  P VRDU  JUDGXO GH DVRFLHUH GLQWUH \  L \ ] ]^ \  vQ

LSRWH]D vQ FDUH LQIOXHQ D QLYHOXOXL GLQ WUHFXW SHQWUX RULFH ODJ GLIHULW GH N HVWH PHQ LQXW FRQVWDQW 2

b b
DXWRFRUHOD LD DXWRFRUHOD LD

SDU LDO F U

)LJ )LJ

b
DXWRFRUHOD LD

SDU LDO F

)LJ

152
DVWIHOGHL]RODUHDLQIOXHQ HLHVWHLPSRUWDQW SHQWUXDLQGLFDFHOPDLDGHFYDWPRGHO$50$GHVWLQDW

SURJQR]HL

Q GHFXUVXO VSHFLILF ULL PRGHOXOXL SULQ SULVPD FHORU WUHL FULWHULL SRW IL vQWkOQLWH VLWXD LLOH OD

FDUHQHYRPUHIHULvQFHOHFHXUPHD] 

c d e f g
 ([LVWHQ D XQHL WHQGLQ H HYROXWLYH  DVSHFW VHPQDODW GH IDSWXO F  FRHILFLHQ LL GH

DXWRFRUHOD LH HVWLPD L U  U  U  HYHQWXDO U  U  SUH]LQW  QLYHOH VHPQLILFDWLY GLIHULWH GH ]HUR FH

GHVFUHVF OHQW $D FXP DP DU WDW vQWUXQ SDUDJUDI DQWHULRU HVWH QHFHVDU V  HOLPLQ P WHQGLQ D

FDOFXOkQG GLIHUHQ HOH GLQWUH WHUPHQLL VHULHL FURQRORJLFH 7HQGLQ D SRDWH IL FRPSOHW HOLPLQDW  GXS 

FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO vQWkL G   VDX FHHD FH PDL UDU VH vQWkPSO  D GLIHUHQ HORU GH

RUGLQXOGRLG VDXPDLPDUH

h
 3URFHVXOHVWHSXUDXWRUHJUHVLY$5GDF DYHPvQYHGHUHFULWHULLOH

D FRHILFLHQ LL U  GHVFUHVF SHQWUX N      ILH vQ SURJUHVLH JHRPHWULF  ILH

GHVFULLQG FRQWXUXO GLQ LORU GH ILHU VWU X YH]L ILJ  2UGLQXO SURFHVXOXL DXWRUHJUHVLY HVWH vQWkL

GDF  GHVFUHWHUHD HVWH UDSLG  UHVSHFWLY HVWH HJDO FX GLVWDQ D GLQWUH YkUIXULOH GLQ LORU GH IHU VWU X vQ

FD]XO HYROX LHL vQ ]LJ]DJ Q FD]XO VHULLORU FH SUH]LQW  VH]RQDOLWDWH FRHILFLHQ LL SUH]LQW  QLYHOH

i j
VHPQLILFDWLYHODGLVWDQ HHJDOHFXQXP UXOGHXQLW LGHWLPSOXQLWULPHVWUHGLQWUXQDQ

E FRHILFLHQ LL U  GHVFUHVF vQ SURJUHVLH JHRPHWULF  vQ WLPS FH FRHILFLHQ LL F 

GHVFUHVF EUXVF GXS  R P ULPH D ODJXOXL HJDO  FX XQX FD] vQ FDUH RUGLQXO SURFHVXOXL DXWRUHJUHVLY

HVWHXQXVDXGXS RP ULPHDODJXOXLHJDO FXGRLFD]vQFDUHRUGLQXOSURFHVXOXLDXWRUHJUHVLYHVWH

GRLHWFILJL

F IHQRPHQXO HFRQRPLF HVWHGHSHQGHQWGHDFXPXO ULGHH[SHULHQ DGLQWUHFXWDYkQG

GHFL XQ SURQXQ DW FDUDFWHU LQHU LDO 6H UHFRPDQG  RS LXQHD SHQWUX XQ PRGHO DXWRUHJUHVLY SXU DO

F UXLRUGLQUH]XOW FRQIRUPFHORUDU WDWHGLQFLWLUHDFRUHORJUDPHL

 &D]XO HYROX LLORU SXU DXWRUHJUHVLYH ILLQG GHVWXO GH UDU vQWkOQLW QX WUHEXLH H[FOXV 

SRVLELOLWDWHDXQXLPRGHOPL[W$50$

h k
 3URFHVXOHVWHFDUDFWHUL]DWFDILLQGGHPHGLHPRELO 0$GDF 

D FRHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U  VH DSURSLH EUXVF GH ]HUR GXS  N XQLW L GH WLPS

h
2UGLQXOPRGHOXOXLGHPHGLHPRELO HVWHHJDOFXN 

E QLYHOXO FRHILFLHQ LORU GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U  VH DSURSLH EUXVF GH ]HUR vQ WLPS FH

FRHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHSDU LDO  F l VFDGvQSURSRU LHJHRPHWULF ILJ

 2UGLQXOPRGHOXOXLGHPHGLHPRELO HVWHGDWGHP ULPHDPD[LP DLQGLFHOXLNSHQWUXFDUH U  l

SUH]LQW RYDORDUHVHPQLILFDWLY 

F YDULDELOD HFRQRPLF  HVWH VHQVLELO  vQ WLPS OD PRGLILF ULOH GH DPSORDUH DOH XQRU

YDULDELOHH[RJHQHSUH RIHUW FDODPLW LHWFvQWUXFkWHOHJHQHUHD] DEDWHULDFFLGHQWDOHGHODPHGLD

HYROX LHLDEDWHULFDUHVHUHSHUFXWHD] vQWLPSVF ]kQGWUHSWDWvQLQIOXHQ 

 'HL VH UHFRPDQG  XQ PRGHO GH PHGLH PRELO  QLFL vQ DFHVW FD] QX WUHEXLH H[FOXV 

SRVLELOLWDWHDGHDUHSUH]HQWDPDLELQHHYROX LDvQWLPSSULQPRGHOXOPL[W$50$

 3URFHVXOHVWHFRQVLGHUDWGHWLS$50$GDF 

D FRHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH VFDG SDU LDO WUHSWDW vQ LQWHQVLWDWH DSURSLLQGXVH DSRL

UDSLG GH QLYHOH QHVHPQLILFDWLYH GXS  N XQLW L GH WLPS 3HQWUXDVWDELOLRUGLQXOPRGHOXOXL$5DYHP

vQ YHGHUH P ULPHD LQGLFHOXL N SHQWUX FDUH FRHILFLHQ LL VH PHQ LQ OD QLYHOH UHODWLY PDUL SHQWUX D

m
 

o n
z z w x yt x u x v u t x v t
 ([SOLFD LD DFHVWHL UHJXOL DUH vQ YHGHUH IDSWXO F  vQWUXFkW 0 X X  =   SHQWUX W N   UH]XOW  F  SHQWUX H[SUHVLLOH

p rs q  =s +E E +E E +   FHHD FH DPLQWHWH GH

~
0 \ \ E

| |} {
YDORULORU OXL \  L \  VH RE LQH

FRY \  \   'HFL FRY \  \

   SHQWUX N T  L FRY \  \  =   SHQWUX N > T  QWUXFkW

FRHILFLHQWXO GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U =

DXWR FRY ( \

DXWR FRY ( \

\

)
)
=
DXWR FRY (N

DXWR FRY ( )
)
 UH]XOW  F  L FRHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH


U VXQWHJDOLFX]HURSHQWUX N > T 

153
VWDELOL RUGLQXO PRGHOXOXL 0$ DYHP vQ YHGHUH P ULPHD LQGLFHOXL N SHQWUX FDUH FRHILFLHQWXO U  
 
GHYLQHQHVHPQLILFDWLYFD]vQFDUHRUGLQXOS U LLGHPHGLHPRELO GLQPRGHOXOPL[WHVWHT N

E DWkW FRHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U  FkW L FRHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH SDU LDO  F 

VFDG FRQWLQXX DSURSLLQGXVH GH ]HUR YH]L ILJ  L  I U  D VH REVHUYD R VF GHUH EUXVF  OD


QLFLXQXO GLQWUH HL 2UGLQXO S U LL DXWRUHJUHVLYH D PRGHOXOXL PL[W HVWH VHPQDODW  GH QLYHOXO SHQWUX

FDUH FRHILFLHQ LL F  SUH]LQW  QLYHOH FkW GH FkW VHPQLILFDWLYH LDU RUGLQXO S U LL GH PHGLH PRELO  GLQ

PRGHOXO PL[W HVWH GDW GH QLYHOXO PD[LP DO LQGLFHOXL N SHQWUX FDUH FRHILFLHQ LL U  VXQW VXILFLHQW GH 
PDUL

F IHQRPHQXO GHVFULV GH VHULD GH WLPS HVWH WULEXWDU DWkW UHDOL] ULORU VDOH GLQ WUHFXW FkW

LDEDWHULORUDFFLGHQWDOHGDWRUDWHXQRUPRGLILF ULGHDPSORDUHDOHYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH

 0RGHOXO DXWRUHJUHVLY L GH PHGLH PRELO  PL[W $50$ UHSUH]LQW  FD]XO JHQHUDO L HVWH

FRQVLGHUDWFHOPDLLQGLFDWSHQWUXHODERUDUHDGHSURJQR]HvQHFRQRPLHDWXQFLFkQGQXHVWHFXQRVFXW 

QXDYHPGDWHHYROX LDYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH

 0RGHOXO$50$HVWHGHVHRULUH]XOWDWXOVSHFLILF ULLSHQWUXYDULDELODVWD LRQDU SULQGLIHUHQ H

GHRUGLQXOGLFDUHvQIRUPDRULJLQDO SUH]LQW WHQGLQ YH]LVLWXD LD

 $FHVW DVSHFW HVWH VSHFLILFDW DWkW SULQ GHQXPLUHD GH PRGHO QHVWD LRQDU DXWRUHJUHVLY L GH

PHGLHPRELO FkWLSULQVLPEROXO$5,0$XWLOL]DW$FHVWVLPEROHVWHXUPDWGHQLYHOXOLQGLFLORU

S

G
RUGLQXOS U LLDXWRUHJUHVLYHDPRGHOXOXL

RUGLQXOGLIHUHQ HORUFDUHDXFRQGXVODYDORULDOHOXL \ VWD LRQDUH

T RUGLQXOS U LLGHPHGLHPRELO DPRGHOXOXL

$VWIHO SHQWUX D VHPQDOD XQ PRGHO FDUH VH UHIHU  OD R VHULH DGXV  OD IRUPD VWD LRQDU  GXS 

FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO vQWkL ILLQG DXWRUHJUHVLY  GH RUGLQXO vQWkL L GH PHGLH PRELO  GH

RUGLQXOGRLQRW PFX $5,0$ (S =  G =  T =  ) VDX $5,0$ ( ) (FXD LDXQXLDVWIHOGHPRGHO

HVWH


\ =D +D \ + \ -E X -E X +X   

W   W -  W -  W - W

XQGH

\ = \ - \ 

([HPSOH

 3HQWUX H[HPSOXO FRQVLGHUDW YH]L WDEHOXO  FODVD GH PRGHOH LQGLFDW  HVWH FHD

QHVWD LRQDU  vQWUXFkW VHULD FURQRORJLF  vQ IRUPD LQL LDO  SUH]LQW  WHQGLQ  QWUXFkW WHQGLQ D D IRVW

HOLPLQDW  GXS  FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO vQWkL LDU FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH VHULHL VWD LRQDUH DVWIHO

 
RE LQXWH VXQW FRQIRUPH vQGHRVHEL PRGHOXOXL PL[W DXWRFRUHOD LH UHODWLY PDUH SHQWUX N  GHYHQLQG

QHVHPQLILFDWLY SHQWUXN LDUVF GHUHDVSUHQLYHOXO]HURDFRHILFLHQ LORU U L F SHQWUXN 

  HVWH WUHSWDW  PRGHOXO D IRVW VSHFLILFDW GUHSW QHVWD LRQDU DXWRUHJUHVLY GH RUGLQXO XQX L GH

PHGLHPRELO GHRUGLQXOXQX'HFLPRGHOXO$5,0$HVWHUHGDWH[SOLFLWDVWIHO


\ =D +D \ + \ -E X +X     
W   W -  W - W

&RQWLQX P H[HPSOLILF ULOH UHIHULQGXQH OD VHULL FHYD PDL OXQJL GH GDWH DD FXP VXQW FHOH

SUH]HQWDWHvQ&DSLWROXO9,DSOLFD LDGLQSDUWHDILQDO DFDSLWROXOXL

$VWIHOSHQWUXVHULD9 

DX IRVW RE LQXWH HVWLPD LLOH U =  U = -  U =   &RHILFLHQ LL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH SDU LDO 


F UH]XOW GLQVLVWHPXOGHHFXD LL

D + D - D = 

D + D + D = - 

- D + D + = 

SHQWUXFDUH D
=   D
= -  D =  



 QXUPDDSOLF ULLWHVWHORU%DUWOHWW4/%DUH]XOWDWF LSRWH]DQXO  r =  HVWHFRQILUPDW 

VHULD 9 ILLQGGHWLSDOHDWRUVWD LRQDU 'DF QHSURSXQHPV VSHFLILF PPRGHOXOSHQWUXRDVWIHOGH

154
 
VHULHFRQVWDW PF DWkW U FkWL F  SHQWUXN SUH]LQW YDORULQHVHPQLILFDWLYHDSURSLDWHGH

]HURQHvQFDGUkQGXVHvQWLSRORJLDPRGHOHORUVWRFKDVWLFH


 QFD]XOVHULHL= DXUH]XOWDW

U =   U =   U =   9DORULOH OXL U  VFDG OHQW FHHD FH VHPQDOHD]  F  VHULD HVWH

RPRJHQ QHVWD LRQDU DVSHFWUH]XOWDWLvQXUPDDSOLF ULLWHVWHORU%DUWOHWW4/%

 Q XUPD GHWHUPLQ ULL GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO vQWkL VD RE LQXW LUXO Z = ] - ]  FX YDORULOH



 &RHILFLHQ LL U  vQ DFHVW FD] VXQW U = -   U =   U = -   &RHILFLHQ LL

F UH]XOW GLQXUP WRUXOVLVWHPGHHFXD LLYH]L

D -  D +  D = - 

-  D +

D -  D =   

 D - D + D = - 

 ,QYROX LD FRHILFLHQ LORU U  FRURERUDW  FX F GHUHD FRHILFLHQ LORU F  SHQWUX N  VXJHUHD] 

vQFHSULYHWHVSHFLILFDUHDXQPRGHO$5HYHQWXDO$50$

 0HQ LRQ P F  vQ FHHD FH SULYHWH HWDSD VSHFLILF ULL PRGHOXOXL VWRFKDVWLF QH VLWX P SH XQ

WHUHQ QHVLJXU vQ FDUH DO WXUL GH FULWHULLOH PHQ LRQDWH XQ URO GHRVHELW vO DUH L H[SHULHQ D

HFRQRPHWULFLDQXOXL 6H UHFRPDQG   RS LXQHD SHQWUX GRX  WUHL YDULDQWH GH VSHFLILFDUH XUPkQG FD

GXS  SDUFXUJHUHD HWDSHORU GH HVWLPDUH L YHULILFDUH V  VH DSUHFLH]H FDUH GLQWUH YDULDQWH HVWH PDL

LQGLFDW SHQWUXRE LQHUHDGHSURJQR]H

 ([SULPDUHD FHD PDL SUXGHQW  D PRGHOXOXL VWRFKDVWLF DUH vQ YHGHUH YDULDQWD $50$ VDX

$5,0$ GDF  H[LVW  WUHQG vQ GDWH Q DFHVW IHO HVWH HOLPLQDW ULVFXO VFRDWHULL GLQ MRF SULQWUR

QHLQVSLUDW  GHILQLUH D PRGHOXOXL D DFHORU IDFWRUL FDUH VH PRGLILF  LPSUHYL]LELO GHFODQkQG HURUL GH

SURJQR] SDUWHD0$VDXDIDFWRULORULQHU LDOLVDXFDUHSURGXFDFXPXO ULSDUWHD$5

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORU

 2E LQHUHD GH HVWLPD LL GH PD[LP  YHURVLPLOLWDWH SHQWUX SDUDPHWULL D L E GLQ PRGHOHOH

VWRFKDVWLFH DXWRUHJUHVLYH L GH PHGLH PRELO  LPSOLF  PLQLPL]DUHD VXPHL S WUDWHORU HURULORU  X 

,SRWH]D UHSDUWL LHL QRUPDOH D HURULORU SHUWXUED LHL IDFH FD HVWLPD LLOH GH PD[LP  YHURVLPLOLWDWH V 

ILHLGHQWLFHFXHVWLPD LLOHRE LQXWHSULQ0&003

 QWUXFkW VHFYHQ D 0$ D PRGHOXOXL $50$ LQGXFH QHOLQLDULWDWHD vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL E 

HVWH QHFHVDU  XWLOL]DUHD XQXL DOJRULWP H[WUHP GH ODERULRV D F UXL GHVI XUDUH vQFHUF P V  R

SUH]HQW P vQ FRQGL LL FkW PDL DSURSLDWH GH FHULQ HOH HODERU ULL XQXL SURJUDP SHQWUX SUHOXFUDUHD

HOHFWURQLF DGDWHORU

 3HQWUX vQFHSXW QH UHIHULP OD FD]XO PDL VLPSOX DO PRGHOXOXL DXWRUHJUHVLY $5 Q YHGHUHD

D
HVWLP ULL SDUDPHWULORU VH UHFRPDQG  DSOLFDUHD 0&003$DGDUXUPHD] V RE LQHPHVWLPDWRULL

D
 D
SHQWUXFDUHH[SUHVLDXUP WRDUHHVWHPLQLP 


 PLQ > \
- D \
+ D
+  + D \ @   
W   W - S W -S
W

 $D FXP DU WDP vQ &DSLWROXO 9,, DWXQFL FkQG DP DERUGDW SUREOHPD PRGHOHORU FX ODJ

GLVWULEXLW YH]L UHOD LD  H[LVWHQ D GHSHQGHQ HL GLQWUH YDULDELOD \  L SHUWXUED LH FD L

H[LVWHQ D FROLQLDULW LL vQWUH \  L \  IDF FD HVWLPDWRULL V  QX ILH HILFLHQ L L QLFL VXILFLHQW GH

VWDELOL 3HQWUX D HYLWD DFHVWH HIHFWH QHGRULWH DSHO P OD PHWRGD YDULDELOHORU LQVWUXPHQWDOH VDX OD

PHWRGH LWHUDWLYHvQWUHFDUHFHDGHVWLQDW UH]ROY ULLXQXLVLVWHPGHHFXD LLGHWLS<XOH:DONHUHVWH

IUHFYHQWUHFRPDQGDW >@

155



$VWIHOSHQWUXXQPRGHO$5HFXD LLOH<XOH:DONHUVHSUH]LQW DVWIHO 

U =        

- D

U

=D +
- D
D
      

 

 ([HPSOX

Q YHGHUHD H[HPSOLILF ULL SURFHGHXOXL GH HVWLPDUH SUH]HQW P XUP WRUXO LU GH YDORUL \ 

SHQWUXSHULRDGHVXFFHVLYH

 \   \ =

 QWUXFkW HVWLPDWRULL FRHILFLHQ LORU GH DXWRFRUHOD LH VXQW U =   U =   U =  

U =   PRGHOXO D IRVW VSHFLILFDW FD ILLQG GH WLS $5 (VWLPDWRULL SDUDPHWULORU UH]XOW  GLQ

UHOD LLOHLDVWIHO

D

   =

 - D





D

   = D +

 - D

SHQWUXFDUH D
=   D = - LDUSDUDPHWUXO D SRDWHILFRUHFWDSUR[LPDWGH \ =   

 Q FD]XULOH vQ FDUH PRGHOXO VWRFKDVWLF LQFOXGH L HOHPHQWH GH PHGLH PRELO  ILLQG GH WLS

$50$ $5,0$ VDX 0$ XWLOL]DUHD PHWRGHL FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH vQ YDULDQWD RELQXLW  QX HVWH

UHFRPDQGDW vQWUXFkW

PRGHOXOHVWHvQJHQHUDOQHOLQLDUGLQSHUVSHFWLYDSDUDPHWULORUDVSHFWHYLGHQWGDF DYHPvQ

YHGHUHUHOD LD X =
D %

E % 
\ 

 HFXD LD PRGHOXOXL SUHVXSXQH vQ YHGHUHD RE LQHULL GH HVWLPD LLFXQRDWHUHDXQRUYDORULGLQ

WUHFXW  \  \ X   SHQWUX FDUH QX GLVSXQHP GH GDWH &D XUPDUH VXQW QHFHVDUH LQL LDOL] UL L

PHWRGHLWHUDWLYH

UHSDUWL LH QRUPDO  FX YDORUL X  X  X

(VWLPDUHD vQ SULQFLSLX VH ED]HD]  SH LSRWH]D FRQIRUP F UHLD YDULDELOD UH]LGXDO  XUPHD]  R

 LQGHSHQGHQWH (VWLPDUHD GH PD[LP  YHURVLPLOLWDWH D

SDUDPHWULORU D  D  E  E SUHVXSXQHPLQLPL]DUHDVXPHL

 
PLQ X = PLQ >X  DE\ @ 
W
W

'LQWUH PHWRGHOH GH HVWLPDUH UHFRPDQGDWH SHQWUX PRGHOHOH QHOLQLDUH vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL

LQWHUHVHD]  SURFHGHXO DGHFYDW VLWXD LHL vQ FDUH XQHOH YDORUL GLQ WUHFXW QHFXQRVFXWH DSDU vQ IRUPXOD

UH]XOWDW vQXUPDVSHFLILF ULL

Q FHOH FH XUPHD]  QH YRP UHIHUL OD XQ SURFHGHX GH HVWLPDUH UHFRPDQGDW SHQWUX PRGHOXO

$50$ vQWUXFkW DFHVW WLS GH PRGHO UHSUH]LQW  IRUPD JHQHUDO  D PRGHOHORU VWRFKDVWLFH 3HQWUX D VH

DMXQJH vQ FD]XO XQXL DVWIHO GH PRGHO OD HVWLPDWRUL DL SDUDPHWULORU D  D  E  E  FDUH V 


vQGHSOLQHDVF  FRQGL LD PLQ X  VH UHFRPDQG  XWLOL]DUHD XQXL SURFHGHX LWHUDWLY >@ Q SULQFLSLX
W
W

XQDVWIHOGHSURFHGHXSUHVXSXQH

LQL LDOL]DUHDSDUDPHWULORUFXYDORULED]DWHSHFRHILFLHQ LL U 

 

0RGXOvQFDUHVDDMXQVODDFHVWHUHOD LLHVWHDU WDWvQSDUDJUDIXODQWHULRUYH]LUHOD LLOH

156
 D %
 GH]YROWDUHD H[SUHVLHL FRQFHQWUDWH D PRGHOXOXL X = \  vQ VHULH 7D\ORU vQ MXUXO
E % 

LQL LDOL] ULORU VWDELOLWH SHQWUX SDUDPHWULL L UH LQHUHD SULPLORU GRL WHUPHQL GLQWUR DVWIHO GH

GH]YROWDUHFHHDFHSHUPLWHRE LQHUHDGHHFXD LLOLQLDUH

 RE LQHUHD GH HVWLPD LL DOH SDUDPHWULORU HFXD LLORU OLQLDUH IRORVLQG vQ DFHVW VFRS

0&003

 FRPSDUD LL DOH HVWLPD LLORU DVWIHO RE LQXWH FX FHOH UH]XOWDWH GLQ LWHUD LD DQWHULRDU  SHQWUX

vQFHSXW DYHP vQ YHGHUH LQL LDOL] ULOH ED]DWH SH FRHILFLHQ LL U  vQ VFRSXO DSUHFLHULL UHDOL] ULL

FRQYHUJHQ HL

 GDF  FRQYHUJHQ D HVWH FRQVWDWDW  XOWLPHOH HVWLPD LL VXQW FHOH YDODELOH LDU GDF  HVWLPD LLOH

QX FRQYHUJ VH vQORFXLHVF VROX LLOH LWHUD LHL SUHFHGHQWH FX FHOH RE LQXWH vQ XOWLPD LWHUD LH L VH UHLD

SURFHVXOGHODFHDGHDGRXDHWDS GH]YROWDUHvQVHULH7D\ORUDSOLFDUHD0&003HWF

 3HQWUX D UHGD PDL GHWDOLDW HWDSHOH GLQ SHUVSHFWLYD SURJUDP ULL DFHVWRUD DYHP vQ YHGHUH

PRGHOXO $5,0$ )RUPXOHOHFKHLH SULYLQG DOWH PRGHOH IUHFYHQW vQWkOQLWH $50$

$50$YRUFRPSOHWDGHPHUVXO

 &DOFXOHSUHOLPLQDULL

 SHQWUXVHULLQHVWD LRQDUHSURFHG PODHOLPLQDUHDWHQGLQ HL

 SHQWUXVLPSOLILFDUHDFDOFXOHORUHOLPLQ PPHGLDGLQGDWH

6 H[HPSOLILF PDFHDVW HWDS UHOXkQGGDWHOHGLQWDEHOXO

7DEHO

9DORULRULJLQDOH ( \ )  

\ = 
9DORULVWD LRQDUH ( \ )  

\ = \ - \

9DORULVWD LRQDUHPLQXVPHGLD (\ - \ ) 

([SULP PPRGHOXOvQIRUPDFRQFHQWUDW VHUYLQGXQHGHRSHUDWRUXOGHWUDQVODWDUHvQWUHFXW

%

GXS  HOLPLQDUHD PHGLHL GH UHOD LD \

$VWIHO PRGHOXO $5,0$ FDUH GXS  VWD LRQDUL]DUH GHYLQH $50$ HVWH H[SULPDW

= D\ - E\ + X   ,QWURGXFkQG RSHUDWRUXO % PRGHOXO

GHYLQH

\ = D %  \ - E  % X +X 
W W W W

'HXQGH

X =
 - D % 

 - E % 
\       

)RUPHFRQFHQWUDWHSHQWUXDOWHWLSXULGHPRGHOH

IRUPDFRQFHQWUDW SHQWUX$50$

X =

 - E  % - E  %
 - D % 


\      

 SHQWUX$50$

X =
 - D  % - D  % 
\      

 - E % 

 SHQWUX$50$

 - D  % - D  % 
X = \      
 - E  % - E  % 

157
  ,QL LDOL] P SDUDPHWULL SH ED]D HVWLPD LLORU FRHILFLHQ LORU GH DXWRFRUHOD LH U  $VWIHO vQ

FD]XOPRGHOXOXL$50$


D = U 

-  -  U 
E = 
U

QWUDGHY U GDF  DYHP vQ YHGHUH UHOD LLOH  L  DWXQFL vQWUXFkW SHQWUX $5

-E
= D  LDU SHQWUX SDUWHD 0$ ()  =  $FHVW GLQ XUP  UDSRUW FRQGXFH OD HFXD LD

U U
+ E

U E + U +E =  vQFDUHSDUDPHWUXOE HVWHQHFXQRVFXW

0HQ LRQ P F  vQ YHGHUHD LQL LDOL] ULORU SXWHP DYHD vQ YHGHUH OD IHO GH ELQH L FRHILFLHQ LL

GHDXWRFRUHOD LHSDU LDO  F 

$WULEXLP GH DVHPHQHD YDORDUHD ]HUR DFHORU QLYHOH DOH YDULDELOHL FDUH VXQW vQ DIDUD

FDGUXOXL \ =   \ =   X =   X =  

Q H[HPSOXO FRQVLGHUDW vQWUXFkW U = -  UHVSHFWLY GXS  HOLPLQDUHD PHGLHL YDORULOH

H[SXVH vQ WDEHOXO   UkQGXO  YRU FRQGXFH OD RE LQHUHD DFHOXLDL FRHILFLHQW U = -  &D

XUPDUHLQL LDOL]DUHDSUHVXSXQH

D

= - 

-  - [ (- )]



E = = 

  -


 
'LQWUHFHOHGRX YDORULRE LQXWHSHQWUX E DOHJHP E =  

 'H]YROW P vQ VHULH 7D\ORU H[SUHVLD X =

 - D %

 - E % 

\  vQ MXUXO LQL LDOL] ULORU D  E  L

UH LQHPGRDUSULPLLGRLWHUPHQLGLQvQWUHDJDGH]YROWDUH 'HFL

  


 $ - $ 

X


X  = X + +      
 $

XQGH

D
$  YHFWRUXOSDUDPHWULORUQHFXQRVFX L 

E
 

 D
$ YHFWRUXOLQL LDOL] ULORUSULYLQGSDUDPHWULL   

E

 'HULYDWDSDU LDO vQUDSRUWFXDHVWHHJDO FX

X [ - D (% )] [ - E (% )] - [ - D (% )] [ - E (% )] - (% )
[ = = \  = \  
 - E (% )
D
[ - E (% )]
QWUXFkW

- (% )\ W = -\
W -


- E  %  [ = -E[    

5H]XOW XUP WRDUHDHFXD LHOLQLDU 

 

6HULD7D\ORUDIXQF LHLIvQSXQFWXODHVWHUHSUH]HQWDW GHH[SUHVLD
 
[ - D  [ - D  [ - D  
I   + I    + I    +  + I   +  
  Q

158
   [ = E[    - \         

X
 'HULYDWDSDU LDO vQUDSRUWFXE ] = FRQGXFHODFHDGHDGRXDHFXD LH
E

] = E]   -E ]   - \   + D\       

 (FXD LDSRDWHILUHGDW DVWIHO

     
X =X + D - D [ + E - E ]    
W W W

 ,]ROkQGQHFXQRVFXWHOHDLEvQGUHDSWDVHPQXOXLHJDOLW LLRE LQHP

     
-X + D [ +E ] = D[ + E] -X    
W W W W W

XUPkQG FD vQ HWDSD XUP WRDUH V  FDOFXO P [ !  ] !  SH ED]D YDORULORU YDULDELOHL \ "  vQ YDULDQWD

VWD LRQDUL]DW DYkQGPHGLDHOLPLQDW LDLQL LDOL] ULORUPHQ LRQDWHvQHWDSDDWUHLD

 0HQ LRQ P HFXD LLOH OLQLDUH RE LQXWH vQWUXQ PRG VLPLODU SURFHGHXOXL GHVFULV SHQWUX

$50$SHQWUXPRGHOHOH

 $50$

[& = \ & % $ + E$ [ & % $ + E# [ & % #        

) )
 ] ( , = -\ , + ( + D\ , + ) + E ( ] , + ( + E ) ] , + ) -E ] ( , + ) - E ( E ) ] ( , + * - E) ] ( , + ' 
. .
] . 2 = -\ 2 1 . + D\ 2 1 / + E 0 ] . 2 1 0 + E . ] . 2 1 . -E ] . 2 1 . - E 0 E . ] . 2 1 / - E . ] . 2 1 - 

$50$

[ $ & = E$ [ $ & % $ - \ & % #       

[ 3 6 = E4 [ 3 6 5 3 + \ 6 5 3       
8
] ; = E 9 ] ; : 9 -E ] ; : 8 - \ ; : 9 + D9 \ ; : 8 + D8 \ ; : 7   

 &DOFXO P YDORULOH [ "  ] "  OXkQG vQ FRQVLGHUDUH LQL LDOL] ULOH L YDORULOH YDULDELOHL \ "  GLQ

WDEHOXOUkQGXO

5HOD LLOHLVXQWFHOHFDUHQHVWDXvQDWHQ LH

[< =  

 [ > = E[ = - \ > ? = =   -  = -  

 [ A = E[ A B @ - \ A B @ =   - -  - =  

 ] = 

C C
] C = E] C E D -E ] C E C - \ C E D + D\ C E C =    -   -  +  -  = - 

M
 
'HDVHPHQHDVHSURFHGHD] ODFDOFXOXOYDORULORU X 
W

X = \ - D\ - EX 
W W W - W -

'HFL

 
X = 


     
X = \ - D \ -E X 
   -  -
J I H J I H J I H
= \ - D
XG
G \
G K F -E X
G K F 

M
 QH[HPSOXOFRQVLGHUDW
N M L
XP = 
N M L 
XO =  - -  -  -   = -

159
 Q ILQDO VWDELOLP QLYHOXO YDORULORU GLQ VWkQJD HJDOLW LL UHOD LHL  vQ XUPD XQRU

RSHUD LXQLGHvQVXPDUHSHQWUXW $DGDUSHQWUXPRPHQWXOWRE LQHP

TS T S TS
*Q = -X R +D R [Q + E R ] Q 

 

  QWUXFkW vQ XUPD FHOHL GHD FLQFHD HWDSH DP DMXQV OD XQ PRGHO OLQLDU GH UHJUHVLH FODVLF

SHQWUX FDUH vQ FD]XO $50$ DP GHWHUPLQDW YDORUL SULYLQG IDFWRULL [ L ] L HIHFWXO *

XUPHD]  V  DSOLF P 0&003 vQ IRUPD RELQXLW  RE LQkQG HVWLPDWRULL SH FDUH vL VLPEROL] P FX
WVU WVU WVU WVU
D E 6 SUHVXSXQHPF DPRE LQXW D =  E = -  

 &RPSDU P HVWLPD LLOH RE LQXWH vQ FHD GHD DVHD HWDS  FX HVWLPD LLOH DQWHULRDUH RE LQXWH
WVU WVU
SULQ  0&003 VDX LQL LDOL]DWH Q FD]XO QRVWUX FRPSDU P P ULPLOH D E  FX LQL LDOL] ULOH
WX U W X U
D E  'DF  FRQVWDW P F  P ULPLOH QX FRQYHUJ VSUH QLYHOH VWDELOH vQORFXLP HVWLPD LLOH

DQWHULRDUH FX XOWLPHOH HVWLPD LL RE LQXWH L UHOX P SURFHVXO LWHUDWLY vQFHSkQG FX FHD GHD FLQFHD

HWDS  $DGDU DWULEXLP SDUDPHWULORU D L E FHOH PDL UHFHQWH HVWLPD LL UH]XOWDWH GLQ DSOLFDUHD

0&003 vQ FD]XO QRVWUX D   L E   L UHYHQLP OD FHD GHD FLQFHD HWDS  SURFHGkQG OD
TY
FDOFXOXOYDORULORU [ Q  ] Q  X Q R SHED]DDFHVWRUQLYHOHDOHSDUDPHWULORU$SRLvQFHDGHDDVHDHWDS VH
WZ U WZ U
DSOLF  0&003 L VH RE LQH DOW VHW GH HVWLPD LL  D E  (YLGHQW FRPSDUD LD VH UHLD GH DVW 
WZ U WZ U WVU WVU
GDW  vQWUH D E  L D E  6  SUHVXSXQHP F  GXS  FkWHYD DVWIHO GH LWHUD LL FRQYHUJHQ D
\] [ _` ^
HVWLPD LLORUVDUHDOL]DWSHQWUXYDORULOH D =  L E = - QDFHVWFD]DFHVWHGLQXUP QLYHOH

VXQWFRQVLGHUDWHHVWLPD LLOHF XWDWH

3HQWUX SURFHVHOH $50$ vQ FDUH S   L T   PHWRGD SUH]HQWDW  HVWH FX GHRVHELUHD

LQGLFDW 3HQWUXSURFHVHGHRUGLQPDLPDUHGLQIHULFLUHPDLUDUvQWkOQLWHvQDSOLFD LLPHWRGDHVWHQX

QXPDL ODERULRDV  GDU vQ PRG IUHFYHQW FRQYHUJHQ D VH  UHDOL]HD]  JUHX FHHD FH IDFH GHVHRUL

QHFHVDU UHHYDOXDUHDLQL LDOL] ULORUGLQHWDSDDWUHLD'DF GXS PDLPXOWHvQFHUF ULFRQYHUJHQ DQX

DUHORFHVWHLQGLFDWV VHvQFHUFHRQRX VSHFLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXL$FHDVWDVHvQWkPSO FKLDULSHQWUX

PRGHOH PL[WH GH RUGLQ S   T   vQ FD]XULOH vQ FDUH LQL LDOL] ULOH QX DX IRVW FHOH PDL SRWULYLWH

VDX vQ VLWXD LLOH vQ FDUH VSHFLILFDUHD PRGHOXOXL D IRVW GLILFLO  GDWRULW  DPELJXLW LL HYROX LHL

FRHILFLHQ LORUGHDXWRFRUHOD LH

9HULILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLVWRFKDVWLF

3DUFXUJHUHD HWDSHORU GHVWLQDWH VSHFLILF ULL PRGHOXOXL L HVWLP ULL SDUDPHWULORU VFRDWH vQ

HYLGHQ  vQ DIDUD YROXPXOXL PDUH GH FDOFXOH SH FDUH vO SUHVXSXQ WHKQLFLOH %R[  -HQNLQV

FRPSDUDWLYFXDOWHPHWRGHYH]L&DSLWROHOH9,L9,,LUROXOUHODWLYPDUHSHFDUHvOGH LQH[SHULHQ D

LLQVSLUD LDHFRQRPHWULFLDQXOXL$FHDVWDDSDUHPDLSUHJQDQWvQHWDSDGHVSHFLILFDUHGDUGDF DYHP

vQYHGHUHSRVLELOLWDWHDGHDDOHJHvQWUHPHWRGHOHGHHVWLPDUHFD]XOPRGHOHORU$5FDLSRVLELOLWDWHD

GH D PRGLILFD LQL LDOL] ULOH SDUDPHWULORU UH]XOW  F  LQWXL LD H[SHULHQ D DX XQ URO GHRVHELW vQ HWDSD

HVWLP ULL

&D XUPDUH YHULILFDUHD PRGHOXOXL VH UHIHU  QX DWkW OD WHVWDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL VDX QX QXPDL OD

DFHDVWDFLLODFDOLWDWHDPRGHOXOXLGHDUHSURGXFHFDUDFWHUXOLQHU LDOLGHDVLPLODUHDRFXULORUFDUH

DSDU vQ HYROX LD IHQRPHQHORU HFRQRPLFH vQ WLPS $FHVWHL HWDSH vL UHYLQH GHFL XQ URO GH FRQWURO GH

FDOLWDWHELQHGHWHUPLQDWvQvQWUHJXOGHPHUVGHSUHJ WLUHLHODERUDUHDSUHYL]LXQLORU

9HULILFDUHD PRGHOXOXL vQDLQWH GH XWLOL]DUHD VD SHQWUX HODERUDUHD GH SURJQR]H SUHVXSXQH

DQDOL]D FRUHORJUDPHL YDORULORU FRHILFLHQ LORU GH DXWRFRUHOD LH Ua  HODERUDW  SHQWUX YDORULOH b 
\

JHQHUDWH SULQ PRGHOXO DGRSWDW YDORUL VWD LRQDUH RE LQXWH GLQ PRGHO 'DF  vQWUH FRUHORJUDPD

LQL LDO  XWLOL]DW  vQ HWDSD GH VSHFLILFDUH SULYLQG YDORULOH HPSLULFH VWD LRQDUH \ b  L FRUHORJUDPD

160
 b JHQHUDWHGHPRGHOH[LVW RDVHP QDUHHYLGHQW 
FRHILFLHQ LORUGHDXWRFRUHOD LHED]DW SHYDORULOH \

DVWIHO vQFkW DQDOL]D XOWLPHL FRUHORJUDPH DU FRQGXFH OD DFHHDL VSHFLILFDUH D PRGHOXOXL FRQVLGHU P

F  PRGHOXO HVWH YDOLG Q FD]XO vQ FDUH FRUHORJUDPHOH GLIHU  IRDUWH PXOW VH UHDOL]HD]  UHYL]XLUHD

LQL LDOL] ULORU DWULEXLWH SDUDPHWULORU 'DF  PRGLILFDUHD LQL LDOL] ULORU QX DUH HIHFWHOH VFRQWDWH VH

SURFHGHD]  OD UHVSHFLILFDUHD PRGHOXOXL vQ VHQVXO F  VH PRGLILF  RUGLQXO PRGHOXOXL ILH SHQWUX

VHFYHQ D VD DXWRUHJUHVLY  ILH SHQWUX FHD GH PHGLH PRELO  ILH SHQWUX DPEHOH 1X SRDWH IL H[FOXV 

QLFL PRGLILFDUHD WLSXOXL GH PRGHO vQ ORF GH D XWLOL]D XQ PRGHO 0$T V  DYHP vQ YHGHUH XQ PRGHO

$50$VDXPDLUDUXQPRGHO$5T

([HPSOX

3HQWUX GDWHOH SUH]HQWDWH vQ WDEHOXO  DP RSWDW SHQWUX XQ PRGHO $5,0$ 9DORULOH

JHQHUDWHGHPRGHOvQYDULDQWDVWD LRQDUL]DW vQFDUHLQFOXGHPvQV LPHGLDUH]XOW DVWIHO

b
\ \ b c
= D + \ 

XQGH

=  
D

E = - 

b   FD L UH]XOWDWHOH FRPSDUD LHL GLQWUH \

2E LQHUHD YDORULORU OXL \ b  L QLYHOHOH HPSLULFH \ b 

WDEHOXOUkQGXOVXQWSUH]HQWDWHvQFHOHFHXUPHD] 

d
\ =   +  -  +  =     e
\ - \e =  -  = - 

f
\ =   +  -  - +  =    
\ g - \ g =  -  =   

h
\ =   + -   +  =    \ - \ =  -  =  
 

i
\ =   +  -  +  =    \ - \ =  -  =  
 

 6HULD RULJLQDO  \  UH]XOW  XUPkQG XQ SURFHV LQYHUV FHOXL RE LQHULL GH YDORUL VWD LRQDUL]DWH
W

$DGDU vQWUXFkW \ W = \ - \
W -
 YH]L WDEHOXO  UH]XOW  F  \ = \ + \  6H RE LQ DVWIHO
W W W - W

XUP WRDUHOHYDORUL

\ =  +  = 


\ =  +  =  


\ =  +  =  



\ =  +  =  



 3HQWUXYDORULOHOXL \ DVWIHORE LQXWHVHFDOFXOHD] FRHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LH Uj N 

W

   LDU UHSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF  D DFHVWRUD VH FRPSDU  FX FHD D FRHILFLHQ LORU Uj  FDOFXOD L SHQWUX

GDWHOHHPSLULFHGLQWDEHOXOUkQGXO'DF DVHP QDUHDJUDILFHORUHVWHHYLGHQW DVWIHOvQFkWL

SH ED]D YDORULORU OXL \  DMXQJHP OD DFHHDL FRQFOX]LH SULYLQG WLSXO L RUGLQXO PRGHOXOXL
W
kml
$50$PRGHOXOHVWHYDOLG 

 2 DOW  PRGDOLWDWH GH YHULILFDUH DUH vQ YHGHUH DQDOL]D UHVWXULORU DGLF  DQDOL]D YDULDELOHL

UH]LGXDOH Q FD]XO XQXL PRGHO SHUIRUPDQW ELQH VSHFLILFDW FRUHFW HVWLPDW YDORULOH YDULDELOHL

UH]LGXDOHVXQWDOHDWRDUHLQHFRUHODWHDVWIHOvQFkWFRHILFLHQ LLGHDXWRFRUHOD LHFDOFXOD LSHQWUXDVWIHO

GHYDORULVXQWQHVHPQLILFDWLYL7HVWXOGH]YROWDWGH/MXQJL%R[DUHvQYHGHUHYDORDUHDFDOFXODW 4

FDUHVHRE LQHDVWIHO
q

n
4 = Q  Q + 
r Up     
Q - N
p o

   XQGH

 U DXWRFRUHOD LDUH]LGXXULORUGHODJN
N

 
st
 5HDPLQWLP IDSWXO F  vQ PRGHOXO 0$ VDX $50$ VHPQXO PLQXV GLQ ID D SDUDPHWUXOXL E HVWH SXU VLPEROLF Q FDOFXOH

DYHPvQYHGHUHUH]XOWDWHOHHVWLP ULLQH[HPSOXOFRQVLGHUDW \ w =   \ w v u -  X w v u +  

161
  'HWHUPLQDUHD QLYHOXOXL OXL 4 SHUPLWH YHULILFDUHD PRGHOXOXL FRQVLGHUkQGXVH
x F  SHQWUX XQ

PRGHOVWRFKDVWLFFRUHFWVSHFLILFDWLQGLFDWRUXO4FDOFXODWXUPHD] RUHSDUWL LH FXNSTJUDGHGH

OLEHUWDWH&DXUPDUHDFFHSW PPRGHOXOGDF 
y

4
| } { } z

Q DFHODL VFRS SRDWH IL XWLOL]DW GH DVHPHQHD WHVWXO %DUWOHWW FD] vQ FDUH PRGHOXO HVWH

FRQILUPDW GDF  FRHILFLHQ LL U  FDOFXOD L SH ED]D YDORULORU HVWLPDWH DOH YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH X  VH
N W

VLWXHD] vQLQWHUYDOXO

 
-  ~
U   a =  
Q Q

 QVLWXD LLOHvQFDUHVHSXQHSUREOHPDRS LXQLLvQWUHGRX YDULDQWHDOHPRGHOXOXLVWRFKDVWLFVH

UHFRPDQG XQLQGLFDWRUVHPQDOVLPEROL]DW5065RRW0HDQ6TXDUHVLGHILQLWDVWIHO

 
 \
- \
506 =




     
Q \

 $OHJHPDFHDYDULDQW GHPRGHOVWRFKDVWLFSHQWUXFDUHLQGLFDWRUXO506SUH]LQW YDORDUHDFHD

PDLDSURSLDW GH]HUR

 (VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUHWDSDGHWHUPLQDQW DWkWSHQWUXPRGHOHOHHFRQRPHWULFHFODVLFHFkWL

SHQWUX DQDOL]D VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH  UHSUH]LQW  R SUREOHP  L vQ FD]XO PRGHOHORU VWRFKDVWLFH GH

SURJQR]  'H PRGDOLWDWHD vQ FDUH HD HVWH UH]ROYDW   GHSLQGH QX QXPDL FDOLWDWHD SURJQR]HL GDU L

UDSRUWXULOHFDUHSRWILVWDELOLWHvQWUHHYROX LDSUH]HQW LYLLWRDUHLHYROX LLOHGLQWUHFXW

(ODERUDUHDSURJQR]HORU

 3ULQPRGHOHOHGHWLS$50$$50$$5,0$VHXUP UHWHRE LQHUHDGHSUHYL]LXQLFkWPDL

SUHFLVH FHHD FH vQ WHUPHQLL VWDWLVWLFLL vQVHDPQ  F  vQ XUPD FRPSDU ULL YDORULORU SURJQR]DWH

 \  FXYDORULOHUHDOH  \  HURDUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF HVWHPLQLP 

W

PLQ 0 > \ - \  @     

 9DORDUHD SUHYL]LRQDW  WUHEXLH FRQVLGHUDW  PDL FXUkQG R VSHUDQ  PDWHPDWLF  D QLYHOXOXL

YLLWRU DO OXL \  GHFkW R P ULPH FHUW  FDUH VDU RE LQH vQ FRQGL LL QRUPDOH vQ YLLWRU 7RWRGDW  XQ

QLYHO SUHYL]LRQDW \  UHSUH]LQW  R P ULPH FRQGL LRQDW  GH YDORULOH HPSLULFH RE LQXWH SHQWUX
Q +Y

SHULRDGHOHFDUHSUHFHGLQWHUYDOXOGHSURJQR] 

\ = 0 >\  \ \  \ \ @   

Q +Y Q +Y Q Q -  

 &RUHVSXQ] WRU UHOD LHL  UH]XOW  F  SURJQR]D VH RE LQH SDV FX SDV ILHFDUH QLYHO

SUHYL]LRQDW SUHVXSXQkQG FDOFXOH SUHDODELOHFDUHLQFOXGSURJQR]DSURJQR]HOHGLQWUHFXW$VWIHOGDF 

VHULD FURQRORJLF  SUH]LQW  YDORUL SHQWUX W     Q DWXQFL SUHYL]LXQHD SHQWUX SHULRDGD  Q  

UH]XOW DVWIHO

\
\ = 0 >\  \  \  \  \ @ = D +  D - E X - E X + D
\ 

M
\
\ =D +  + D \ +  + D \ -  - E X -  - E X + D  
Q +Y  Q +Y - Q Q S Q - S +  Q T Q -T +Y 

 Q UHOD LD  QLYHOXO SHUWXUED LHL X  VH GHWHUPLQ  vQ SUHDODELO SH ED]D UHOD LHL 

ILLQGGHIDSWUH]XOWDWXOGLIHUHQ HORU \ 
- \

 Q JHQHUDO XQ SURFHV $50$S T \ =

D \

-
E

X
 (E  = )  FRQGXFH OD

SURJQR]H \  GH HURDUH S WUDWLF  PLQLP  $VWIHO VLWXkQGXQH vQ PRPHQWXO Q  UH]XOW  F  SHQWUX
Q +Y

PRPHQWXOYLLWRUQYRE LQHP

162


\ =
D \

- E X



(E  = )   

 5HFRPDQG UL

SHQWUXYDORULOHQHFXQRVFXWH \ GHH[HPSOX \ SHQWUXDRE LQHYDORDUHDSURJQR]DW 

Q +

SHQWUX \ XWLOL] PYDORULOHSURJQR]DWH \



YDORULOHYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH X  W Q XWLOL]DWHSHQWUXDRE LQHSURJQR]HVXQWFHOHDMXVWDWH

X = \ GDUSHQWUX W > Q  X  X  VHFRQVLGHU F DFHVWHDVXQWHJDOHFX]HURILLQGWUDWDWH

- \

FDUH]XOWkQGGLQWUXQSURFHVGH]JRPRWDOE

Q FD]XO VHULLORU QHVWD LRQDUH HVWH QHFHVDU FD SUHYL]LXQLOH ILQDOH V  LQFOXG  L FRPSRQHQWD

WHQGLQ  &D XUPDUH HVWH QHFHVDU V  VH SURFHGH]H RUL GH FkWH RUL WHQGLQ D D IRVW HOLPLQDW  SULQ

FDOFXOXOGLIHUHQ HORUGHGLIHULWHRUGLQHODHIHFWXDUHDXQXLFDOFXOLQYHUVFHOXLFDUHDGXVODHOLPLQDUHD

WUHQGXOXL 'HFL R vQVXPDUH D ILHF UXL UH]XOWDW RE LQXW FD R SURJQR]  VWD LRQDUL]DW  FX QLYHOXO

DQWHULRURE LQXWvQFRQGL LLOHPHQ LQHULLWHQGLQ HL

&RQFUHWvQFD]XOvQFDUHPRGHOXOHVWHGHWLS$5,0$SURJQR]DQLYHOXOXLVWD LRQDUL]DW

SHQWUXSHULRDGDQUH]XOW DVWIHO

\
\ =D -E X + D      
Q +  Q  Q 

XQGH

 E  D
D  HVWLPD LLDOHSDUDPHWULORU

 - D % 
\
X = \ = \ -D +E X = \ - \  
 - E % 

3HQWUXSHULRDGDQSURJQR]DVWD LRQDUL]DW UH]XOW DVWIHO

\ \
=D
+ D 
Q +  Q + 

\
vQWUXFkW \ =D -E X + D 
Q +  Q  Q 

5H]XOW F 

E X

\
=D \ -D
+D   
 + D   
Q +  Q   Q  

3HQWUXQSURJQR]DHVWH

\ \
=D
+ D       
Q +  Q + 

6HULD ILLQG QHVWD LRQDU  GH RUGLQXO vQWkL G  UH]XOW  F  ILHFDUH QLYHO RE LQXW FRQVWLWXLH GH

IDSW R GLIHUHQ  GH WLS \ - \ = G\  5H]XOW  F  RE LQHUHD YDORULL \  FDUH V  LQFOXG  WHQGLQ D
W W - W W

SUHVXSXQH vQVXPDUHD GLIHUHQ HL G\  FX QLYHOXO DQWHULRU \  3HQWUX SUHYL]LXQLOH FDUH HYLGHQW
W W -

GHS HVF SHULRDGD Q HVWH QHFHVDU QLYHOXO HPSLULF FDUH LQFOXGH WUHQGXO \  DVWIHO vQFkW DG XJkQG
Q
DFHVWXLDYDORULOHVWD LRQDUL]DWHDOHSURJQR]HLV SXWHPRE LQHSUHYL]LXQLFDUHLQFOXGWHQGLQ D 

([HPSOH

 3HQWUX GDWHOH SUH]HQWDWH vQ WDEHOXO  H[HPSOLILF P PRGDOLWDWHD GH HODERUDUH D

SURJQR]HORU Q DFHVW FD] PRGHOXO $5,0$ D IRVW FRQILUPDW FD YDOLG vQ XUPD HWDSHL GH

=   E = - &RQVLGHU PGHDVHPHQHD X
YHULILFDUH 5HDPLQWLP F  D =    Q =   D =  

\ =  vQWUXFkWLQFOXGHPHGLD

3UHYL]LXQLOHSHQWUXXUP WRDUHOHSHULRDGHUH]XOW DVWIHO

 

 Q FH SULYHWH LQWHUYDOXO GH SURJQR]  DYHP vQ YHGHUH OLPLWHOH VWDELOLWH SH ED]D UHOD LHL


XW

 W
\ Q  + b  V vQFDUH V =  b  SRQGHULUHSUH]HQWDWHGHSDUDPHWULLHVWLPD LSHQWUX
X
Q - S -T

YDULDQWDWUDQVIRUPDW DPRGHOXOXL$50$vQPRGHO0$GHRUGLQLQILQLWYH]LSDUDJUDIXOFDUHVHUHIHU ODUHGXFWLELOLWDWHD

SURFHVXOXL$5ODXQSURFHV0$

163
  SHQWUX W = Q +  =  

\
\ =D +D - EX  \ =  +   -   =  
Q +  Q Q

,QFOXGHP WHQGLQ D vQVXPkQG DQWHULRDUHL YDORUL \ =   YH]L WDEHOXO   UkQGXO 


SURJQR]DRE LQXW 

\  

SHQWUXW Q  DYHPvQYHGHUHIDSWXOF Y!SY!TvQVHQVXOF YDGHYHQLW

LDURUGLQXOOXLSLTHVWH&DXUPDUH X =  

5H]XOW F 

\ = \
=D \ =   =  

,QFOXGHP WHQGLQ D vQVXPkQG DQWHULRDUHL YDORUL  \ =   XOWLPXO UH]XOWDW SURJQR]DW

= ) vQYHGHUHDRE LQHULLSURJQR]HL (\ ) 

( \

\  

\ = \ \
=D =   =  

\ =  +  =  

 M
'H PHQ LRQDW F  SURJQR]HOH WLQG V  VH VWDELOL]H]H vQ MXUXO XQXL DQXPLW QLYHO vQ FD]XO

H[HPSOLILFDW DFHVW QLYHO HVWH  $DGDU PRGLILF ULOH vQ WLPS GXS  FH GHS LP SULPD HYHQWXDO D

GRXD L D WUHLD SHULRDG  GH SURJQR]  GHYLQ WRW PDL SX LQ SURJQR]DELOH 3H WHUPHQ OXQJ

SUHYL]LXQLOHED]DWHSHPRGHOHFDUHLQFOXGIDFWRULYH]L&DSLWROHOH,,,L,9VXQWPDLFUHGLELOH

 Q WDEHOXO  VXQW UHGDWH SUHYL]LXQLOH SULYLQG SURGXF LD GH R HO SUHFXP L YkQ] ULOH GH

DSDUDWHGHUDGLRvQ5RPkQLD0RGHOHOHXWLOL]DWHVXQW

 SHQWUXSURGXF LDGHR HO

\ = \ +  \ + X + X - 

HYROX LDYkQ] ULORUGHDSDUDWHGHUDGLR

\ = \ -   \ -  \ -  X 

7DEHO

 3URGXF LDGHR HO 9kQ] ULGHUDGLRUHFHSWRDUH

3HULRDGDGH PLLW PLLEXF

SURJQR]  3UHYL]LXQL 'DWHUHDOH 3UHYL]LXQL 'DWHUHDOH

Q    

Q    

Q    

Q    

 &DOLWDWHD PRGHOXOXL GLQ SXQFW GH YHGHUH DO SUHFL]LHL SURJQR]HORU SRDWH IL YHULILFDW  SH ED]D

XQRUSURJQR]HGHSURE DYkQGXVHvQYHGHUHXUP WRDUHOHHWDSH

 D HWDSD VSHFLILF ULL FD L FHD D HVWLP ULL VH UHIHU  OD VHULD GH GDWH SHQWUX LQWHUYDOXO

FRQVLGHUDWPDLSX LQXOWLPHOHSHULRDGH$FHVWLQWHUYDOUHSUH]LQW VHFYHQ DPDUWRU

E SHED]DPRGHOXOXLDOHVVDXDGRX WUHLYDULDQWHGHPRGHOVXQWRE LQXWHSUHYL]LXQL

SULYLQGHYROX LDvQFHOHSHULRDGHFDUHIRUPHD] VHFYHQ DPDUWRU

F VH SURFHGHD]  OD FRPSDUDUHD SURJQR]HORU HODERUDWH SHQWUX ILHFDUH YDULDQW  GH PRGHO FX

GDWHOH UHDOH FDUH FRPSXQ VHFYHQ D PDUWRU Q DFHVW IHO SXWHP DSUHFLD FDUH YDULDQW  HVWH PDL

SHUIRUPDQW  ,QGLFDWRUXO SH FDUH ODP VLPEROL]DW FX 506 UHOD LD  SRDWH IL XWLO L SHQWUX

DFHDVW  YHULILFDUH L SH ED]D OXL YRP DFFHSWD DFHD YDULDQW  GH PRGHO SHQWUX FDUH DP RE LQXW FHD

 HVWH
PDL PLF  YDORDUH D UHVSHFWLYXOXL LQGLFDWRU 'HVLJXU vQ UHOD LD   QLYHOXO DMXVWDW \

164

vQORFXLW FX YDORDUHD VD SURJQR]DW  \  W  Q Q 9DULDQWD GH PRGHO FRQVLGHUDW  GUHSW FHD

PDLEXQ vQXUPDXQHLDVWIHOGHYHULILF ULXUPHD] V ILHXWLOL]DW SHQWUXvQWUHDJDVHULH \ 

 )DPLOLD PRGHOHORU VWRFKDVWLFH GH SURJQR]  FRQWLQX  V  VH GLYHUVLILFH OXkQG vQ DWHQ LH QRL

PDQLIHVW UL GLQ HFRQRPLH FXP VXQW FHOH OHJDWH GH VH]RQDOLWDWH 6$5,0$ LQFRQVWDQ D vQ WLPS D

GLVSHUVLHL YDORULORU UH]LGXDOH $5&+ IUDF LRQDUHD GHFDODMXOXL vQ WLPS GLQ PRGHOHOH $5,0$

$5),0$QFHOHFHXUPHD] QHYRPUHIHULODDFHVWHGLQXUP PRGHOH

 02'(/8/ $5&+ $XWRUHJUHVVLYH &RQGLWLRQDO +HWHURVFHGDVWLFLW\ XUP UHWH LQFOXGHUHD

PDQLIHVW ULL UHSHWDELOH REVHUYDW  vQ VHULLOH FURQRORJLFH SULYLQG LQGLFDWRULL ILQDQFLDUL  PRQHWDUL

UDWD LQIOD LHL FXUVXO GH VFKLPE SUH XO DFWLYHORU SUH XULOH VSHFXODWLYH FDUH FRQVW  vQ DSDUL LD GH

HURUL GH SURJQR]  UHODWLY PDUL vQ XQHOH VHFYHQ H GH WLPS vQ DOWHUQDQ  FX VHFYHQ H vQ FDUH HURULOH

VXQW PLFL (VWH YRUED GHFL GH R LQHJDO  vPSU WLHUH KHWHURVFHGDVWLFLWDWH D YDORULORU YDULDELOHL

UH]LGXDOHPDQLIHVWDW SHVHFYHQ HOHGHWLPSFDUHFRPSXQVHULDFURQRORJLF 6XFFHVLXQHDGHHURULGH

SURJQR]  PDUL XUPDW  GH VXFFHVLXQHD GH HURUL PXOW PDL PLFL SRDWH IL vQWkOQLW  DWkW vQ VLWXD LLOH vQ

FDUH DSUHFLHP SUHFL]LD SUHYL]LXQLORU FkW L vQ VLWXD LLOH vQ FDUH DQDOL] P FRPSRUWDPHQWXO YDORULORU

YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOHSHQWUXVHULDLQL LDO GHGDWH2GHSHQGHQ PDQLIHVWDW VXEIRUPDDXWRFRUHOD LHL

SRDWH IL GHFL LQYRFDW  (FRQRPHWULFLDQXO HQJOH] ) 5 (QJOH D XUP ULW LQFOXGHUHD vQ PRGHOXO

VWRFKDVWLF GH SURJQR]  D XQXL DVWIHO GH FRPSRUWDPHQW DO YDORULORU UH]LGXDOH FRQVLGHUkQG F 

GLVSHUVLDHURULLSRDWHILSULYLW FDILLQGGHSHQGHQW GHYDORULOHOXL\ VDXX vQUHJLVWUDWHvQWUHFXWQ

DFHVWVHQVHVWHSURSXV IXQF LD>@

(D  ) 
 
s =D + D \ >  D    
X   W - 

FDLYDULDQWD

  
s =a +a X +  + a X     
X   W - S W -S

 6SUH GHRVHELUH GH PRGHOXO $5 vQ FDUH HURDUHD X HVWH FRQVLGHUDW  DOHDWRDUH QRUPDO

GLVWULEXLW GHPHGLHHJDO FX]HURLGHGLVSHUVLHFRQVWDQW (X W

a 1 ( s 

X
)) LDUPHGLDFRQGL LRQDW 

D YDORULORU OXL \  HVWH GHSHQGHQW  GH WLPS 0\ \   D \  vQ YHUVLXQHD SURSXV  GH (QJOH L

GLVSHUVLDHURULLHVWHGHSHQGHQW GHWLPSSLHU]kQGXLFDOLWDWHDGHDILFRQVWDQW $FHVWDHVWHPRWLYXO

DG XJ ULL LQL LDOHORU &+ FRQGLWLRQDO KHWHURVFHGDVWLFLW\ VLPEROXOXL $5 $DGDU vQWUR IRUPXODUH

JHQHUDO  vQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH IXQF LD GH GHQVLWDWH D YDULDELOHL \ FRQGL LRQDW GH\
HVWHQRUPDO 

PHGLDFDLGLVSHUVLDVXQWODUkQGXOORUFRQGL LRQDWHGHWUHFXW

(\ W
\
W -
)a 1 (0 ( \ W - ) s


\    )    

2YDULDQW VLPSO DPRGHOXOXLSRDWHILUHGDW DVWIHO

\ = D\ + E[ +X      
W W - W W

 
s =a +a X       
X    W -

   X
W
a 1 ( s 

X
 )
QWUH YDULDQWHOH PRGHOXOXL $5&+ PHQ LRQ P H[SUHVLD JHQHUDOL]DW  SURSXV  GH %ROOHUVOHY

*$5&+ vQ FDUH PHPRULD SURFHVXOXL HVWH U VSkQGLW  SH PDL PXOWH GDWH REVHUYDWH SHQWUX WUHFXW

>@
    
=a +a + L + a + b s + L + b

s   \   \      s 


5HVWUkQJkQG HIHFWXO vQWkU]LHULL OD R VLQJXU  XQLWDWH GH WLPS W   RE LQHP PRGHOXO

*$5&+   

s = D + a\    + bs          

XQGH

165
 D > 

a,b  

a + b <1

 0HQ LRQ PGHDVHPHQHDYDULDQWDLQWHJUDW ,*$5&+vQFDUHYDORULOHOXL\  GHYLQVWD LRQDUH


GXS  FDOFXOXO GLIHUHQ HORU GH RUGLQXO vQWkL YDULDQWD vQ FDUH HIHFWXO GHSHQGHQ HL GLVSHUVLHL s   vQ
X

UDSRUWFXWLPSXODSDUHODQLYHOXOYDORULORUPHGLLDOHSURFHVXOXL$5&+0YDULDQWDH[SRQHQ LDO (

*$5&+ vQ FDUH GLVSHUVLHL FRQGL LRQDWH GH YDORULOH OXL X     VDX \     GLQ WUHFXW vL HVWH LPSXV 


UHVWULF LD GH D IL QHQHJDWLY  SULQ FRQVLGHUDUHD ORJDULWPLORU YDORULORU OXL s   FD ILLQG GHSHQGHQWH GH
X

YDORULOHUH]LGXDOHGLQWUHFXW>@

 'DF DERUG PPRGHOXO$5&+VXEDVSHFWRSHUD LRQDOSUHFXPLSULQSULVPDXWLOLW LLVDOHvQ

DQDOL] VLSURJQR] PHQ LRQ PvQSULPXOUkQGFULWHULLOHFDUHFRQILUP VDXLQILUP RS LXQHDSHQWUX

XQ DVWIHO GH PRGHO (OH FRQVWDX vQ YHULILFDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL SDUDPHWULORU GLQ HFXD LD 
  
s  =a + a  X   + a  X   +   SHQWUX a! =a =a =  =   RS LXQHD SHQWUX $5&+ HVWH
"

LQILUPDW  VDX vQ DSOLFDUHD WHVWXOXL ) FD] vQ FDUH SHQWUX Q5 > S  QXP UXO GH WHUPHQL

RS LXQHDSHQWUX$5&+HVWHFRQILUPDW 

 (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU SRDWH IL UHDOL]DW  LWHUDWLY vQFHSkQG FX DSOLFDUHD 0&003

PRGHOXOXL GH ED]  YH]L UHOD LD  6H FRQWLQX  FX RE LQHUHD GH YDORUL DMXVWDWH 
\


GHWHUPLQDUHD YDORULORU YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH L D GLVSHUVLHL DFHVWHLD s  Q HWDSD XUP WRDUH
X
#
FXQRVFkQG s $ VHSRDWHSURFHGDODHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORU a GLQUHOD LDLvQFD]XOvQFDUH

% GLIHU VHPQLILFDWLYGH]HURKHWHURVFHGDVFLWDWHDHVWHFRQILUPDW &DXUPDUHYDULDQWDSRQGHUDW D

a
#
0&003 HVWH UHFRPDQGDW  (D FRQVW  vQ vPS U LUHD YDORULORU \&  \& ( '  [ &  OD s $  L UHOXDUHD

DSOLF ULL 0&003 SHQWUX RE LQHUHD YDORULORU DMXVWDWH \ vPEXQ W LWH XUPDW  GH
W

GHWHUPLQDUHDQRLORUHURUL X DGLVSHUVLHLDFHVWRUDLGHHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUGLQHFXD LD

W

5HOXDUHDSURFHVXOXLDUHORFSkQ FkQGSDUDPHWUXO a GHYLQHQHVHPQLILFDWLYvQVHQVXOWHVWXOXLW



 QWUH DYDQWDMHOH DERUG ULL PRGHO ULL SULQ SULVPD $5&+ PHQ LRQ P SHUVSHFWLYD RDUHFXP

GLIHULW  vQ FDUH HVWH SXV  SUREOHPD DXWRFRUHO ULL YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH Q FD]XO vQ FDUH H[LVWHQ D

DXWRFRUHO ULL HVWH FRQILUPDW  SULQ WHVWXO ': DFHDVWD VDU SXWHD GDWRUD ILH IDSWXOXL F  X )  GHSLQGH

GH X , + *  ILH IDSWXOXL F  GLVSHUVLD YDORULORU YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH FDOFXODW  SH VHJPHQWH DOH LUXOXL GH

YDORUL X ,  HVWH GHSHQGHQW  GH WUHFXW 6DU SXWHD DILUPD vQ DFHDVW  GLQ XUP  VLWXD LH F 

DXWRFRUHODUHDVHPQDODW GHWHVWXO':HVWHGHIDSWKHWHURVFHGDVFLWDWHQFHHDFHSULYHWHPRGHOXO

$5&+LSURJQR]DPHQ LRQ PF SUHGLF LLOHVHED]HD] SHRLQIRUPD LHVXSOLPHQWDU SULQOXDUHDvQ

FDOFXO D LQFRQVWDQ HL vQ WLPS D GLVSHUVLHL YDORULORU UH]LGXDOH FHHD FH FHO SX LQ VXE DVSHFW WHRUHWLF

FUHHD] SUHPLVHSHQWUXRE LQHUHDGHSURJQR]HPDLSUHFLVH

 02'(/8/ $5),0$ $XWRUHJUHVVLYH )UDFWLRQDOO\ ,QWHJUDWHG 0RYLQJ $YHUDJH

UHSUH]LQW  R YDULDQW  D PRGHOXOXL $5,0$SGT vQ FDUH FRHILFLHQWXO G FDUH VHPQDOHD]  RUGLQXO

GLIHUHQ HL UHSUH]LQW  R IUDF LXQH GLQ XQX $DGDU R IUDF LXQH D GHFDODMXOXL vQ WLPS G HVWH

VXILFLHQW  SHQWUX D VWD LRQDUL]D VHULD 6H SRDWH DILUP  F  PRGHOXO $5,0$ SHQWUX FDUH G 
. - 12 / 10/ 10/
 D\ = \ - \   VDX G   D\ = D\ 4 - D\ 4 3 0   HWF G UHSUH]HQWkQG GRDU YDORUL vQWUHJL GHYLQH

XQFD]SDUWLFXODUDOFODVHLPDLODUJLGHPRGHOH$5),0$

 'LQ SHUVSHFWLYD HFRQRPLHL DFFHSWDUHD RUGLQXOXL GH LQWHJUDUH UHSUH]HQWDW GH R IUDF LXQH GLQ

XQX VH MXVWLILF  GDF  DYHP vQ YHGHUH FRPSRQHQWHOH LQHU LDOH VXEWHUDQH FDUH VH PDQLIHVW  FD R

WHQGLQ  GH SHULRDG  vQGHOXQJDW  DYkQG vQFHSXWXO GLQFROR GH SULPXO WHUPHQ DO VHULHL SH FDUH R

DQDOL] P L SHQWUX FDUH GLIHUHQ HOH GH RUGLQXO vQWkL DU IL SUHD PDUL >@ $VWIHO GH SURFHVH SUHFXP

QLYHODUHD FRQVXPXOXL U VSODWD LQYHVWL LLORU vQ DF LXQL SXQHUHD GH DFRUG D VDODULLORU FX SUH XULOH

166
IRUPDUHD WUDGL LLORU vQ FRQVXP GDU L vQ SURGXF LH VDX LQYHVWL LL DU IL LQGLFDWH SHQWUX R DERUGDUH vQ

VHQVXO PRGHOHORU $5),0$ 3URFHVHOH GH DFHVW JHQ QHFHVLW  PRGHOH GH PHPRULH IRDUWH OXQJ 

FDSDELOH V  UH LQ  DVSHFWH OHJDWH GH SHUVLVWHQ D XQRU IDFWRUL vQ HFRQRPLH FXP DU IL DFXPXO ULOH GH

FDSLWDOILHXPDQILHGHQDWXU WHKQRORJLF WUDGL LLOHWHQGLQ DGHPDLELQHHWF0RGHOHOHED]DWHSH

FRQFHSWXOGHU G FLQ XQLWDU YH]L&DSLWROXO9,GDULPDLUHFHQWXOPRGHO$5),0$VXQWGHVWLQDWH

GHVFULHULLXQRUDVWIHOGHSURFHVHGHSHUVLVWHQ 

 ([SULPDUHDIRUPDO DPRGHOXOXLVHSRDWHED]DSHH[SUHVLDIUDF LRQDW DSHUWXUED LHLSHQWUX

YDULDELODWLPSFRQVLGHUDW GHWLSGLVFUHW

G
 - %  \ =X       
W W

 XQGH

 
G QXP UUHDO - <G < 
 

% RSHUDWRUGHWULPLWHUHvQWUHFXWYH]LWDEHOXO

G
 'DF FRQVLGHU PGH]YROWDUHDELQRPLDO DHOHPHQWXOXL  - %  DFHDVWDGHYLQH

G
G G -  
G G - G -  
 - %  =  - G% + % - % +   
 

 'DF  VH DGDXJ  L FRPSRQHQWHOH $5 L 0$ H[SUHVLHL PHQ LRQDWH VH DMXQJH OD PRGHOXO

$5),0$DF UXLIRUP JHQHUDO SRDWHILH[SULPDW DVWIHO

G
  - %  D %  \ = E  % X      
W W

X
W
a 1 ( s 

X
5 )
XQGHDEL%DXDFHHDLVHPQLILFD LHFDLvQUHOD LD

 (VWLPDUHD vQ SULQFLSLX SUHVXSXQH vQWUR SULP  ID]  GHWHUPLQDUHD P ULPLL IUDF LXQLL G

GXS FDUHVHWUHFHODHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXL$50$ODFDUHVDDMXQV

 QFKHLHP SUH]HQWDUHD JHQHUDO  D PRGHOXOXL $5),0$ PHQ LRQkQG F  DFHVW PRGHO D LQWUDW vQ

DWHQ LD HFRQRPLWLORU GRDU vQ XOWLPXO WLPS RIHULQG XQ GRPHQLX GH FHUFHWDUH L DSOLFDUH SUHD SX LQ

H[SORDWDW

%,%/,2*5$),(

 %R[ * ( 3 -HQNLQV * 0  7LPH 6HULHV $QDO\VLV )RUHFDVWLQJ DQG &RQWURO +ROGHQ'D\

6DQ)UDQFLVFR

 &XWKEHUWVRQ.+DOO6$SSOLHG(FRQRPHWULFV7HFKQLTXHV:KUHDWRQV/WG

 )RPE\7%5KRGHV*$GYDQFHVLQ(FRQRPHWULFV-$,*UHVV/RQGRQ

 *UDQJHU&:-6SHFWUDO$QDO\VLVRI(FRQRPLF7LPH6HULHV3ULQFHWRQ8QLY3UHVV1<



 *ULIILWKV : -XGJH * &DUWHU +LOO 5  /HDUQLQJ DQG 3UDFWLFLQJ (FRQRPHWULFV -RKQ :LOH\

DQG6RQV

 *XMDUDWL'%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV0F*UDZ+LOO,QF1<

 +DUYH\$&7LPH6HULHV0RGHOV+RZHVWHU1<

 -RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGV0F*UDZ+LOO1<

 0DGGDOD*6,QWURGXFWLRQWR(FRQRPHWULFV0F0LOODQ3XEO

3HFLFDQ(6(FRQRPHWULH(GLWXUD$OO%XFXUHWL

3ORHJ)HGLW$GYDQFHG/HFWXUHVLQ4XDQWLWDWLYH(FRQRPHWULFV$FDG3UHVV

6WHZDUW-(FRQRPHWULFV$OODQ7K

7HUWLFR 0 6WRLFD 3 3RSHVFX 7K  0RGHODUHD L SUHGLF LD VHULLORU GH WLPS (GLWXUD

$FDGHPLHL%XFXUHWL

167
 &DSLWROXO,;

(OHPHQWHGHDQDOL] VSHFWUDO 


2 FDUDFWHULVWLF  D XQRUD GLQWUH VHFWRDUHOH LPSRUWDQWH DOH HFRQRPLHL DJULFXOWXUD WXULVPXO

FRPHU XOWUDQVSRUWXULOHLQGXVWULDH[WUDFWLY LQGXVWULDDOLPHQWDU VHUYLFLLOHHWFRFRQVWLWXLHQDWXUD

IOXFWXDQW  D DFWLYLW LORU 6H]RQDOLWDWHD L FLFOLFLWDWHD OD FDUH QHDP UHIHULW vQ &DSLWROXO 9,

UHSUH]LQW FHOHPDLHYLGHQWHPDQLIHVW ULGHDFHVWJHQ)DFWRULLJHQHUDWRULGHIOXFWXD LLVXQWOHJD LvQ

SULPXO UkQG GH IHQRPHQHOH QDWXUDOH VFKLPEDUHD DQRWLPSXULORU DOWHUQDQ D ]LQRDSWH ULWPXULOH

FLUFDUGLHQH HWF GDU L GH FHOH VRFLDOH SHULRGLFLWDWHD XQRU DFWLYLW L OHJDWH GH vQY PkQW FXOWXU 

WUDGL LLDOHJHULHOHFWRUDOHHWF

 &D XUPDUH GHRVHELP RVFLOD LL GH SHULRDG  PDL PLF  VDX PDL PDUH FDUH PDUFKHD]  HYROX LD

PXOWRU LQGLFDWRUL HFRQRPLFL XQHOH PDL HYLGHQWH DOWHOH PDL JUHX GHWHFWDELOH PDL DOHV F  RVFLOD LLOH

GLIHULWHFDIUHFYHQ LDPSOLWXGLQHVHVXSUDSXQ

 3HQWUX D FODULILFD vQWUR PDL PDUH P VXU  SUREOHPD OD FDUH QH UHIHULP vQ DFHVW FDSLWRO QH

SURSXQHP V  FRQFUHWL] P DVSHFWHOH DERUGDWH OXkQG GUHSW H[HPSOX SURGXFWLYLWDWHD PXQFLL OD R

vQWUHSULQGHUH GLQ UDPXUD LQGXVWULHL DOLPHQWDUH 'DWHOH FXOHVH SULYLQG SURGXFWLYLWDWHD SRW HYLGHQ LD

PDLPXOWHIOXFWXD LLLQGHSHQGHQWHXQDGHDOWDRRVFLOD LHFRPSOHW SHGXUDWDFHORURUHDOH]LOHLGH

PXQF  R DOWD GH GHVFKLGHUH PDL ODUJ  VH GHVI RDU  vQ GHFXUVXO V SW PkQLL VDX R RVFLOD LH GH

GHVFKLGHUHIRDUWHPDUHFDUHVHGHVI RDU SHGXUDWDXQXLDQ

 'HL HYROX LD QX VH UHDOL]HD]  OLQLDU HYHQWXDO SHUWXUEDW  GH FDX]H DFFLGHQWDOH FL SH IRQGXO

JHQHUDO DO WHQGLQ HL GH FUHWHUH VDX GHVFUHWHUH VH vQUHJLVWUHD]  IOXFWXD LL GH GLIHULWH IUHFYHQ H L

DPSOLWXGLQL $VWIHO vQ GHFXUVXO DQXOXL GHRVHELP vQ FD]XO SURGXFWLYLW LL R RVFLOD LH GH SHULRDG 

DQXDO   GH RVFLOD LL SH SHULRDGD V SW PkQDO  L  GH RVFLOD LL PDL SX LQ QXP UXO ]LOHORU GH

RGLKQ GHSHULRDG HJDO FXGXUDWD]LOHLGHPXQF RUH

 'HRVHELPvQDFHVWGRPHQLXDODQDOL]HLIOXFWXD LLORURWHUPLQRORJLHRDUHFXPVSHFLILF $VWIHO

XWLOL] P QR LXQHD GH LQWHUYDO vQ VHQVXO GH GXUDW  SHQWUX FDUH GLVSXQHP GH GDWH ,QWHUYDOXO HVWH

FRPSXV GLQ XQLW L GH WLPS XQHL XQLW L GH WLPS vL FRUHVSXQGH XQ QLYHO DO FDUDFWHULVWLFLL 3H

LQWHUYDOXOGHWLPSGHRVHELPSHULRDGHGXUDWHvQFDUHDXORFRVFLOD LLFRPSOHWHGHGXUDW PDLPDUH

VDX PDL PLF  1XP UXO GH SHULRDGH GH R DQXPLW  GXUDW  vQ LQWHUYDOXO FRQVLGHUDW UHSUH]LQW 

IUHFYHQ D

 'LVWDQ D YkUIXULORU OLQLHL RVFLODQWH vQ UDSRUW FX PHGLD OLQLD RUL]RQWDO  GHOLPLWHD] 

DPSOLWXGLQHD

 Q 7DEHOXO  H[HPSOLILF P FkWHYD GRPHQLL DOH HFRQRPLHL vQ FDUH IOXFWXD LLOH VXQW PDL

HYLGHQWHVSHFLILFkQGSHQWUXILHFDUHXQLWDWHDGHWLPSSHULRDGHOHLLQWHUYDOXOSHQWUXFDUHP VXUDUHD

XQRUDVWIHOGHIOXFWXD LLSUH]LQW LQWHUHVSHQWUXDQDOL] 

7DEHOXO

6HFWRUXO   

$FWLYLWDWHDHFRQRPLF  8QLWDWHDGHWLPS 3HULRDGD ,QWHUYDOXO

 RUD RUH V SW PkQDOXQD

3URGXFWLYLWDWHD ]LXD V SW PkQD VHPHVWUXODQXO

PXQFLL OXQD DQXO GHFHQLXO

 RUD RUH V SW PkQDOXQD

9kQ] ULOHFXDP QXQWXO ]LXD V SW PkQD VHPHVWUXODQXO

OXQD DQXO GHFHQLXO

WULPHVWUXO DQXO GHFHQLXO

168
 $FFLGHQWHOHGHPXQF  RUD RUH V SW PkQDOXQD

]LXD V SW PkQD VHPHVWUXODQXO

OXQD DQXO GHFHQLXO

7UDQVSRUWXOXUEDQ RUD RUH OXQD

]LXD V SW PkQD DQXO

$FWLYLWDWHDvQ RUD ]LXD OXQD

WUDQVSRUWXULL ]LXD V SW PkQD DQXO

WHOHFRPXQLFD LL OXQD DQXO GHFHQLXO

$FWLYLWDWHDvQWXULVP ]LXD V SW PkQD DQXO

OXQD DQXO GHFHQLXO

$FWLYLWDWHDvQ OXQD VHPHVWUXO GHFHQLXO

DJULFXOWXU  WULPHVWUXO DQXO GHFHQLXO

(FRQRPHWULHL vL UHYLQH UROXO GH D GHFHOD WLSXULOH GH RVFLOD LL GH D P VXUD DPSOLWXGLQHD ORU

HYHQWXDO GH D P VXUD DQDORJLD vQWUH RVFLOD LLOH XQRU IHQRPHQH HFRQRPLFH SHQWUX D GHSLVWD OHJ WXUD

GLQWUHFRPSRUWDPHQWXODFHVWRUD(VWHYRUEDGHFLGHXQGRPHQLXUHODWLYQRXSHQWUXHFRQRPHWULHFDUH

YL]HD]  DVSHFWH GH R PDUH ILQH H LQkQG GH QDWXUD LQWLP  D IHQRPHQHORU $FHVWH DVSHFWH

FRQVLGHU P GHVFKLG QRL SHUVSHFWLYH DQDOL]HL HYROX LHL SUHFXP L DQDOL]HL UHOD LLORU FDX]DOH GLQ

HFRQRPLH

 Q FHHDFHXUPHD] QHUHIHULPSHVFXUWODLQVWUXPHQWHOHGHQDWXU FDQWLWDWLY FDUHLDXJ VLW

XWLOL]DUHvQDQDOL]DIOXFWXD LLORUGLQGRPHQLXOHFRQRPLHL

 ,QWURGXFHUHD 3(5,2'2*5$0(, GH F WUH - 6FKXVWHU  vQ YHGHUHD DQDOL]HL SURSULHW LORU

LQWHUQH DOH XQHL VHULL FURQRORJLFH D FRQVWLWXLW R SULP  IRUP  GH DERUGDUH D GLQDPLFLL IHQRPHQHORU

SULQ SULVPD IUHFYHQ HL RVFLOD LLORU Q DQLL FDUH DX XUPDW R VHULH GH VWDWLVWLFLHQL L HFRQRPHWULFLHQL

vQWUHFDUHPHQ LRQ PSH&:*UDQJHU*(3-HQNLQV$7XNH\-+DQQLQJDXDYXWLPSRUWDQWH

FRQWULEX LL vQ GLUHF LD SHUIHF LRQ ULL PHWRGRORJLHL GH DQDOL]  D RVFLOD LLORU FDUH SRW FRPSXQH VHULD

FURQRORJLF 

 5HYHQLQGODSHULRGRJUDP PHQ LRQ PF SULQFLSLXOSHFDUHVHED]HD] DFHDVW UHSUH]HQWDUH

DUHvQYHGHUHSRVLELOLWDWHDGHDDSUR[LPDRULFHRVFLOD LHSULQWURVHULH)RXULHU 

D
(D Q VLQ Q[ ) 

I = + FRV Q[ + E  
([)

Q
 Q =

XQGH

D  D E  SDUDPHWULL

 

-6FKXVWHUVWDWLVWLFLDQJHUPDQDOHF UXLOXFU ULDXIRVWHODERUDWHODvQFHSXWXOVHFROXOXL;;

 6HULD )RXULHU D XQHL IXQF LL UHSUH]LQW  DFHD VHULH WULJRQRPHWULF  SHQWUX FDUH FRHILFLHQ LL )RXULHU DL UHVSHFWLYHL IXQF LL

I[SRWILFDOFXOD LSULQIRUPXOHOH(XOHU)RXULHU
 

=
 I  [  G[ 
D 
p



D =
 I  [ FRV Q[ G [ 
p


E =
 I  [  VLQ [ G[ 
p

QF  GLQ  1\TXLVW D VWDELOLW F  vQ FD]XO HYROX LHL XQXL SURFHV RVFLODWRU vQUHJLVWUDW SHQWUX 7 XQLW L GH WLPS R

RVFLOD LHRDUHFDUHGHSHULRDG 7SRDWHILUHSUH]HQWDW SULQWURUHOD LHGHIRUPD

  
p p
= D
 FRV W + E VLQ W 

\    I I

7 7

169
 p
Q = I  IUHFYHQ DXQJKLXODU 
7

I IUHFYHQ 

7 GXUDWDLQWHUYDOXOXL

 QFHHDFHSULYHWHQR LXQHDGH63(&758UHVSHFWLYGH$1$/,= 63(&75$/ DFHDVWDD

IRVW SUHOXDW  GLQ IL]LF  vQWUXFkW SULQ DQDORJLH FX VSHFWUXO XQGHL GH OXPLQ  UHJ VLP L vQ FDGUXO

VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH GLQ HFRQRPLHFRPSRQHQWHvQUDSRUWFXIUHFYHQ DRVFLOD LLORUIRUPkQGvQXUPD

XQXL SURFHV GH GHVFRPSXQHUH FXORDUH EHQ]L GLIHULWH 'DF  GHVFRPSXQHUHD XQGHL GH OXPLQ  vQ

EHQ]LGHGLIHULWHFXORULSUHVXSXQHXQSURFHGHXVSHFLILFIL]LFLLGHVFRPSXQHUHDVHULHLFURQRORJLFHGH

GDWHQXPHULFHSRDWHILI FXW FXDMXWRUXOVHULLORUWULJRQRPHWULFH

&RUHVSXQ] WRU RSWLFLL DQDOL]HL VSHFWUDOH XQ SURFHV HYROXWLY vQ WLPS SRDWH IL SULYLW FD XQ

DJUHJDW GH RVFLOD LL VLVWHPDWLFH D F URU IUHFYHQ  L DPSOLWXGLQH GLIHU  2VFLOD LLOH GH GLYHUVH

IUHFYHQ H VH VXSUDSXQ IRUPkQG XQ SURFHV IOXFWXDQW FRPSOH[ FDUH SRDWH IL DQDOL]DW vQ FRQGL LLOH

H[LVWHQ HLXQXLQXP UVXILFLHQWGHPDUHGHYDORULQXPHULFHSULYLQGHYROX LDUHVSHFWLYXOXLSURFHV

 Q YHGHUHD SUHOXFU ULL GDWHORU HFRQRPLFH FRUHVSXQ] WRU DQDOL]HL VSHFWUDOH VH FRQVLGHU VHULD

FURQRORJLF  \   FD ILLQG UH]XOWDWXO XQXL SURFHV VWRFKDVWLF VWD LRQDU  )DSWXO F  GDWHOH VXQW DIHFWDWH GH

HURUL DFFLGHQWDOH D F URU OHJH GH SUREDELOLWDWH UHSDUWL LH HVWH FRQVLGHUDW  FXQRVFXW  LDU vQ FHHD FH

SULYHWH WHQGLQ D HYROXWLY  VH FRQVLGHU  F  HD SRDWH IL HOLPLQDW  GLQGDWHIDFFDDVLPLODUHDVHULHL\  

FXLUXOUH]XOWDWHORUXQXLSURFHVVWRFKDVWLFV SRDWHILDGPLV 

2 DVWIHO GH VHULH SRDWH IL GHVFRPSXV  vQ FRPSRQHQWH VLQXVRLGDOH GH IUHFYHQ H GLIHULWH 2

RVFLOD LHVLQXVRLGDO SRDWHILJHQHUDW GHF WUHXQSURFHVGHVFULVGHUHOD LD

\  $VLQZ7'      

XQGH

$ DPSOLWXGLQHDRVFLOD LHL

p
Z =  IUHFYHQ DXQJKLXODU 
7

' GHID]DMXOGLVWDQ DvQWLPSGLQWUHPRPHQWXOLQL LDOLFHOvQFDUH\  



2ULFDUH RVFLOD LH VLQXVRLGDO  SRDWH IL FRQVLGHUDW  FD VXPD D GRX  RVFLOD LL FRPSOH[H XQD

DYkQG IUHFYHQ D SR]LWLY  FHDODOW  QHJDWLY  $VWIHO vQ FD]XO XQXL SURFHV JHQHUDWRU GH IRUPD 

SHQWUXZLWSUHVWDELOLWHXUP WRDUHDGHVFRPSXQHUHHVWHSRVLELO 

D   !#"%$ D '&  !#"%$

\   H  H     
 
XQGH

L  -   Z  p 

 ([LVWHQ D PDL PXOWRU RVFLOD LL GH IUHFYHQ  GLIHULW  D F URU YLEUD LH DUH ORF VLPXOWDQ IDFH

QHFHVDU  H[SULPDUHD XQGHL SHULRGLFH FRPSOH[H SULQWUXQ SROLQRP WULJRQRPHWULF 2 DVWIHO GH XQG 

SRDWH IL IRUPDW  UHSURGXV  SULQ DJUHJDUHD XQRU RVFLOD LL GH IUHFYHQW  GLIHULW  DIODWH vQ UHOD LH

DUPRQLF  3HQWUX D H[SULPD XQ DVWIHO GH DQVDPEOX GH RVFLOD LL VLQXVRLGDOH GH IUHFYHQ H DIODWH vQ
(
UHOD LHDUPRQLF DSHO PODVHULD)RXULHU
*
( ) 
D- p p
\ ) =
+. D+
+ FRV I W + E+ VLQ I W + X )  W =  Q  
 , 7 7

 
/
 3URFHVXO FDUH GHWHUPLQ  PRGXO GH DSDUL LH D WHUPHQLORU VHULHL HVWH FRQVLGHUDW SURFHV JHQHUDWRU 'DF  XQ DVWIHO GH

SURFHV JHQHUHD]  YDORUL \  vQ UDSRUW FX XQ SURFHV DOHDWRU GH UHSDUWL LH FXQRVFXW  HO SRDWH IL FDOLILFDW GUHSW VWRFKDVWLF 2
0
FODV  VSHFLDO  D SURFHVHORU VWRFKDVWLFH R UHSUH]LQW  SURFHVHOH VWD LRQDUH FDUDFWHUL]DWH SULQ DFHHD F  QLYHOXO ORU PHGLX

GLVSHUVLD L FRYDULDQ D QX GHSLQG GH VFKLPEDUHD PRPHQWXOXL LQL LDO DO VHULHL 3URFHVHOH VWRFKDVWLFH VWD LRQDUH DX XQHOH

SURSULHW L XWLOH DQDOL]HL SUHFXP SRVLELOLWDWHD GH D UHGXFH DQVDPEOXO GH 1 YDORUL OD XQ HDQWLRQ GH YROXP Q Q  1

FDOLWDWHDFDVHULDV SRDWHILGHVFRPSXV vQWURVXP GHRVFLOD LLVLQXVRLGDOH

1
'HQXPLUHDGHUHOD LHDUPRQLF VDXGHDQDOL] DUPRQLF DUHvQYHGHUHFRQVRQDQ DGLQWUHXQGHOHGHIUHFYHQ DIODWHvQWU

XQUDSRUWFDUHSUH]LQW VLPLOLWXGLQLFXFHOVWDELOLWvQWUHVXQHWHOHDIODWHvQDFRUGGHWRQDOLWDWHDUPRQLH

170
 XQGH

D  D2 E2  SDUDPHWUL

7 QXP UXOGHXQLW LGHWLPSWvQLQWHUYDOXOFRQVLGHUDW

 QFHHDFHSULYHWHHVWLPDUHDVHXUP UHWHRE LQHUHDDFHORUHVWLPD LL D FDUHFRQGXFOD

3  E3

FHD PDL EXQ  DSUR[LPDUH D IXQF LHL SHULRGLFH IW SULQWUR VXP  ILQLW  GH IXQF LL VLQXV L FRVLQXV SH

FDUH R VLPEROL] P \ W 3ULQ DQDORJLH FX 0&003 VH DUH vQ YHGHUH


p

LQWHJUDOD [I W  - \ Q
W  ] GW  FDUH DWLQJH XQ PLQLP DWXQFL FkQG D4  LE4 VXQWFRHILFLHQ LL(XOHU
p

5
)RXULHUDLIXQF LHLIW 
7
 p
9 = FRV W     
8
D 6 : \8 I 
7 7

<
 p

E> =
? VLQ W     

; \ = I 
=
7 7

\
=
W
D        

7
QFRQWLQXDUHSRWILRE LQX LXUP WRULLLQGLFDWRULVSHFLILFLDQDOL]HLVSHFWUDOH

DPSOLWXGLQHD$GHVWLQDW P VXU ULLRVFLOD LHLGHIUHFYHQ I

 
$ = D +E       
I I I

 5HSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF  D DPSOLWXGLQLL vQ UDSRUW FX IUHFYHQ D HVWH GHQXPLW  SHULRGRJUDPD

VSHFWURJUDPD 2 DVWIHO GH UHGDUH D SXWHULL YLEUD LHL SH FRPSRQHQWH GH IUHFYHQ  I UHSUH]LQW 

VSHFWUXO IXQF LHL IW 1R LXQHD HVWH OHJDW  GLUHFW GH DPSORDUHD GLVSHUVLHL ILHF UHLD GLQWUH

FRPSRQHQWHOH DUPRQLFH DQDOL]DWH vQ VXFFHVLXQHD IUHFYHQ HL 3RDWH IL GHWHUPLQDW  L DDQXPLWD

HQHUJLH D DUPRQLFLL GH IUHFYHQ  I SULQ UDSRUWDUHD OXL $4  UHOD LD  OD VXPD DPSOLWXGLQLORU

SHQWUXDQVDPEOXOIUHFYHQ HORUOXDWHvQFDOFXO

 6SHFWUXOvQUDSRUWFXGLVSHUVLDLFRYDULDQ DSRDWHILH[SULPDWDVWIHO
D @ B

6F =  F C +  F E FRV(p I N ) 
E A B

   XQGH

I

FG  DXWRFRYDULDQ DGHODJNN 


F = \ - \  \ - \    
N W W -N
Q

 SXWHUHD VSHFWUXOXL SULQ FDUH SRDWH IL HYDOXDW  YDORDUHD OLPLW  D PHGLHL VSHFWUHORU SHQWUX XQ

QXP UGHHDQWLRDQHVHJPHQWHDOHVHULHLFURQRORJLFHVXILFLHQWGHPDUH

H
$DGDU S = OLP 0 (6 H ) (VWLPDWRUXOSXWHULLVSHFWUXOXLUH]XOW DVWIHO
I
N
O
S =  F M + N F FRV(p I N )     
JLK

XQGHI

$FHDVWDUHSUH]LQW RWUDQVIRUPDW )RXULHUFRVLQXVRLGDO DIXQF LHLGHDXWRFRYDULD LH

 IXQF LD GH GHQVLWDWH VSHFWUDO  XWLO  LGHQWLILF ULL LQWHUYDOXOXL SHQWUX FDUH VSHFWUXO SURFHVXOXL

SUH]LQW  FUHWHUL PDL UDSLGH HVWH GH IDSW SULPD GHULYDW  D IXQF LHL VSHFWUXOXL SURFHVXOXL (VWLPD LD

IXQF LHLGHGHQVLWDWHVSHFWUDO UH]XOW DVWIHO

 
P
 2 RVFLOD LH GH ED]  SRDWH DYHD VXSUDRVFLOD LL D F URU IUHFYHQ  HVWH GXEOXO WULSOXO HWF RVFLOD LHL GH ED]  $OWIHO VSXV

 I
GDF IUHFYHQ DHVWH DWXQFL UHSUH]LQW DUPRQLFDDFHVWHLD

7 7

171
 Q
W
S
V

FRV(p I )
V
GW = U =  +  U N    
RTS
sW

XQGHI

UG FRHILFLHQWXOGHDXWRFRUHOD LH

([HPSOX

 Q FHHD FH XUPHD]  QH YRP UHIHUL OD HWDSHOH FRQFUHWH DOH DQDOL]HL VSHFWUDOH GHVWLQDWH

vQGHRVHEL DSUHFLHULL LPSRUWDQ HL RVFLOD LLORU GH GLIHULWH IUHFYHQ H L D XWLOLW LL HL SHQWUX DQDOL]D

HFRQRPLF  SUHFXP L SHQWUX PRGHODUHD HFRQRPHWULF  2 VHULH FURQRORJLF  FX XQ QXP U UHGXV GH

WHUPHQLHVWHXWLOL]DW vQYHGHUHDH[HPSOLILF ULLFDOFXOHORU

(WDSD , &XOHJHUHD GH GDWH vQ YHGHUHD IRUP ULL XQHL VHULL FURQRORJLFH FX XQ QXP U PDUH GH

WHUPHQL Q !  UHSUH]HQWkQG QLYHOH SHQWUX XQLW L GH WLPS GH UHDO LQWHUHV HFRQRPLF YH]L 7DEHOXO

FRORDQD3HQWUXH[HPSOLILFDUHDYHPvQYHGHUHGRDUXQQXP UUHVWUkQVGHGDWHWULPHVWULDOH

SULYLQGYDORULOHvQFDV ULORUGLQVHUYLFLLvQWURXQLWDWHWHULWRULDO 7DEHOXOUkQGXO

7DEHOXO

   

$QXO   

VHPHVWUXO , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 0HGLD

9DORDUHD         X

D = \ =  
VHUYLFLLORU

(WDSD,,$QDOL]DFDOLWDWLY GHQDWXU HFRQRPLF vQYHGHUHDVWDELOLULLSHULRDGHORUODFDUHSRW

DYHD ORF RVFLOD LL FRPSOHWH YH]L WDEHOXO   FRORDQD  &RUHVSXQ] WRU SHULRDGHORU DOHVH L

DYkQG vQ YHGHUH OXQJLPHD LQWHUYDOXOXL VWDELOLP IUHFYHQ HOH SHQWUX FDUH XUPHD]  V  HVWLP P

Y
SDUDPHWULL D  EY 

 3HQWUX GDWHOH GLQ 7DEHOXO  FRQVLGHU P F  SRW DSDUH RVFLOD LL FRPSOHWH SHQWUX SHULRDGD

DQXDO  GHFL vQ GHFXUVXO D SDWUX WULPHVWUH SUHFXP L SHQWUX vQWUHJ LQWHUYDOXO GH RSW WULPHVWUH

2VFLOD LLOHGHSHULRDG DQXDO SRWILvQQXP UGHGRX vQWUXFkWGLVSXQHPGHGDWHSHQWUXGRLDQLI 

 LDU SHQWUX vQWUHJXO LQWHUYDO SXWHP FRQVLGHUD F  GHRVHELP RVLQJXU RVFLOD LHFRPSOHW GHRPDL

ODUJ GHVFKLGHUHI  E L D
'HFLvQWURHWDS XUP WRDUHQHSURSXQHPV HVWLP P D  E  
   

(WDSD ,,, 3UHOXFUDUHD SULPDU  D GDWHORU vQ YHGHUHD DVLJXU ULL FDUDFWHUXOXL VWRFKDVWLF L

VWD LRQDUDOYDORULORU\ Z 

Q FD]XO VHULLORU QHVWD LRQDUH HVWH QHFHVDU V  HOLPLQ P WHQGLQ D JHQHUDO  DSHOkQG ILH OD

GLIHUHQ HOH GH GLIHULWH RUGLQH YH]L &DSLWROXO 9, ILH OD R HYDOXDUH SUHDODELO  D WUHQGXOXL XUPDW  GH

HOLPLQDUHDVDGLQVHULDGHGDWHHPSLULFHFD]XOVHULLORU763YH]L&DSLWROXO9,

 Q H[HPSOXO FRQVLGHUDW DP DSHODW OD FHD GHD GRXD YDULDQW  GH VWD LRQDUL]DUH D HYROX LHL

SHQWUXDQXGLPLQXDLPDLPXOWYROXPXOGHGDWH$PFRQVLGHUDWWHQGLQ DOLQLDU FD]vQFDUHW 

       3DUDPHWULL RE LQX L D
=  L D =   DX SHUPLV GHWHUPLQDUHD WUHQGXOXL
 

 D I FXW SRVLELO  RE LQHUHD XUP WRUXOXL LU GH YDORUL

FDUH vQ XUPD FDOFXOXOXL GLIHUHQ HORU  \   \
W W

VWD LRQDUH

7ULP , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9

\ Z VWD LRQDU        

(WDSD ,9 (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU L FDOFXOXO LQGLFDWRULORU DQDOL]HL VSHFWUDOH SRWULYLW

RELHFWLYHORUXUP ULWH

172
 Q DFHVW VFRS XWLOL] P UHOD LLOH GH FDOFXO SUH]HQWDWH vQ SDUDJUDIXO DQWHULRU QWUXFkW QHDP

SURSXV DQDOL]D LPSRUWDQ HL RVFLOD LLORU GH GLIHULWH IUHFYHQ H SUHFXP L XWLOL]DUHD LQGLFDWRULORU vQ

PRGHODUHvQFHSHPFXHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORU3HQWUXDIDFLOLWDSUH]HQWDUHDFDOFXOHORUDPSURFHGDWOD

GHWHUPLQDUHDPHGLLORUWULPHVWULDOH

7ULP , ,, ,,, ,9

\     

W

&RQIRUPUHOD LLORULRE LQHP

    

D [ =  FRV  + (- 

) FRV   +  FRV   + (- ) FRV   = -

    

    

 + (- 
) VLQ   + (- ) VLQ   = -
\
E =  VLQ   +  VLQ

    

    

D ] =  FRV   + (- ) FRV   +  FRV   + (- ) FRV   = - 

    

    

  + (- 
) VLQ   + (- ) VLQ   =  
^
E =  VLQ   +  VLQ

    

\
` 

D _ = ` = = 
7 

$PSOLWXGLQHD
a a a a
$b = b
D

+ Eb = (- ) +  -  =  

c c c
c
$c = D + Ec =  -  +  =  

(WDSD9,QWHUSUHWDUHDUH]XOWDWHORULXWLOL]DUHDORUvQSUDFWLFDPRGHO ULL

6H vQFHSH FX LQWHUSUHWDUHD DPSOLWXGLQLL FDOFXODWH SHQWUX GLYHUVH IUHFYHQ H 3HULRGRJUDPD

SRDWHILXWLO vQDFHVWVHQV3RWDSDUHXUP WRDUHOHVLWXD LL

 R P ULPH D DPSOLWXGLQLL PXOW SHVWH ]HUR SHQWUX IUHFYHQ H PDL PLFL VDX HJDOH FX XQX

VHPQDOHD] SUH]HQ DWHQGLQ HLVHULDQXHVWHVWD LRQDU 

QLYHOHDOHDPSOLWXGLQLLGHRVHELWGHPDULSHQWUXIUHFYHQ HFDUHVHUHIHU ODSHULRDGHPDLPLFL

7
VDXHJDOHFXXQDQ I > P QXP UXOGHDQLLQGLF SUH]HQ DVH]RQDOLW LL
P

 GDF  DPSOLWXGLQHD HVWH PDUH SHQWUX IUHFYHQ H PLFL SURSULL SHULRDGHORU PDL PDUL GH XQ DQ

7
I < DFHDVWDVHPQDOHD] SUH]HQ DFLFOLFLW LLVDXDDJUHJDWXOXLWUHQGFLFOLFLWDWH0HQ LRQ PF vQ
P

FD]XOvQFDUHVXQWVHPQDODWHFRPSRQHQWHRVFLODWRULLVH]RQDOLWDWHFLFOLFLWDWHQLYHOXODFHVWRUDSRDWH

ILHYDOXDWSHQWUXW XWLOL]kQGUHOD LD

 Q FD]XO SUH]HQWDW vQ 7DEHOXO  DPSOLWXGLQHD VHPQLILFDWLY VXSHULRDU  QLYHOXOXL ]HUR

SHQWUXIUHFYHQ DI VHPQDOHD] SUH]HQ DVH]RQDOLW LL$FHDVWDSRDWHILHYDOXDW DVWIHO

    

V d = + (- ) FRV   +  -  VLQ   + (- ) FRV   +  VLQ   = 
    


l
qsrm jgkgl x i ~ z l wLx gj kgl x i ~ qsrm jgkgl i i ~ l mon p gj kgl i i ~ } 
{ } i
( | l h wtgvgt )  | h ege y om n p  ( | j h iutgv'w )   | i h efgfgf
e e e e
    
V = + (-   ) FRV   +  -    VLQ   + (-   ) FRV   +  VLQ   =  
    

173
     
V = + (-  ) FRV   +  -  VLQ   + (-  ) FRV   +  VLQ   = -
    

2DERUGDUHQXPHULF DUROXOXLFRPSRQHQWHORURVFLODWRULLGHIUHFYHQ GLIHULW SRDWHILI FXW 

DSHOkQG ODLQGLFDWRUXOGHQXPLWVSHFWUXOSURFHVXOXLYH]LUHOD LD$FHVWLQGLFDWRUFDGHDOWIHO

L SXWHUHD VSHFWUXOXL  YH]L UHOD LD  UHVSHFWLY GHQVLWDWHD VSHFWUDO   YH]L UHOD LD 

SHUPLWDQDOL]DLPSRUWDQ HLILHF UHLFRPSRQHQWHDSURFHVXOXLDQDOL]DWSULQSULVPDFRQWULEX LHLVDOHOD

GLVSHUVLDJHQHUDO DUHVSHFWLYXOXLSURFHVGHVFULVGHVHULDFURQRORJLF \ 

 2 YDULDQW  LQWHUHVDQW  GLQ SHUVSHFWLYD DQDOL]HL IDFWRULORU GLQ HFRQRPLH R UHSUH]LQW 

$1$/,=$ 63(&75$/  1&58&,$7  FRQFRPLWHQW  $QDOL]D FRQFRPLWHQW  D RVFLOD LLORU GH

GLIHULWHIUHFYHQ HSHQWUXGRX VDXPDLPXOWHVHULLGHGDWHSRDWHILSULYLW FDRDERUGDUHDQDOLWLF SH

HOHPHQWH FRQVWLWXWLYH D FRUHOD LHL GLQWUH GRX  VDX PDL PXOWH IHQRPHQH FDUH HYROXHD]  vQ SDUDOHO vQ

WLPS QWUR HWDS  SUHOLPLQDU  DQDOL]D VSHFWUDO  vQFUXFLDW  SUHVXSXQH VWD LRQDUL]DUHD VHULLORU SULQ

HOLPLQDUHD WHQGLQ HL L D VH]RQDOLW LL VWDELOLUHD QXP UXOXL GH EHQ]L GH IUHFYHQ  P GHWHUPLQDUHD

p M
IUHFYHQ HLGHSHEDQGDMvQUDGLDQL Z = 
M
P

Q FRQWLQXDUH VH SURFHGHD]  OD GHWHUPLQDUHD GLVSHUVLHL L FRYDULDQ HL GH ODJ N N    

DWkWvQFDGUXOILHF UHLVHULL

\ - \ 
s = 
( )
Q

\ - \  \ - \ 
FRY ( \ \ ) = 
Q

FkWLSHQWUXSHUHFKLGHVHULLGLQWUHFDUHXQDVHUHIHU ODYDULDELODHIHFW\

[
- [  \ - \ 
FRY ([  \ )( = 
)
Q - N

\
- \  [ - [ 
FRY ( \  [ )( = 
)
Q - N

,QGLFDWRULLUHYHODWRULSHQWUXDQDOL]DVSHFWUDO vQFUXFLDW VXQW

(M ) ( )
SXWHUHDVSHFWUXOXL I L I 
[

( ) 
I = s +  FRY ([  \ )( FRV NZ     
)
p

FRVSHFWUXO

(FRY([  \ )( ) FRVNZ
 
= FRY([  \ )( + + FRY( \  [ )
F
p
)
p
) ( )


FYDGUDWXUDVSHFWUXOXL 

(FRY ([  \ )( ) VLQ NZ

= - FRY ( \  [ )(  
T
p
) )


LQGLFDWRUXOGHID] Y M


T
Y = WDQ       
F

$FHVWD SHUPLWH DSUHFLHUHD UHOD LHL GH GHSHQGHQ  GLQWUH GRX  VHULL DWkW vQ FD]XO GHSHQGHQ HL

VLQFURQHGHIUHFYHQ MFkWLvQFD]XOGHSHQGHQ HLDVLQFURQHHYLGHQW GXS XQGHFDODMGHID] 

FRHUHQ D&

 
F +T
M M
& =       
(M ) (M )
I I
[ \

 

)RUPXOHOHSUH]HQWDWHVHUHIHU ODYDULDQWD7XNH\+DQQLQJGHDERUGDUHDLQGLFDWRULORUDQDOL]HLVSHFWUDOH

174
 $FHDVWDH[SULP LQWHQVLWDWHDFRUHOD LHLGLQWUHRVFLOD LLOHGHIUHFYHQ MGLQWUHVHULD[LVHULD\

SHRVFDU GHYDORULFXSULQV vQWUH]HURLXQXDSURSLHUHDGHXQXLQGLFkQGLQWHQVLWDWHDP ULW 

VSRUXO5 

(M )
 [\  I &
 [ M
5 M =       
(M )
I
\

$FHVWD H[SULP  PHGLD FUHWHULL RVFLOD LHL GH IUHFYHQ  M GLQ VHULD \FHUHYLQHODRFUHWHUHFX

XQXDRVFLOD LHLGLQVHULD[

0HWRGD FXQRVFXW  VXE GHQXPLUHD GH DQDOL]  VSHFWUDO  vQFUXFLDW  &URVV 6SHFWUDO

$QDO\VLVUHSUH]LQW XQGRPHQLXGHVFKLVFHUFHW ULLDSOLFDWLYHFXODUJLSRVLELOLW LGHFXQRDWHUHD

XQRUPHFDQLVPHHYROXWLYHvQWLPS

([HPSOX

 $SOLFD LD OD FDUH QH UHIHULP  vQ FHOH FH XUPHD]  DUH GUHSW VFRS H[HPSOLILFDUHD DQDOL]HL

HYLGHQ LLQG HWDSHOH GH OXFUX vQ VLWXD LLOH vQFDUHGLVSXQHPGHGDWHUHDOHSULYLQGSURFHVHSUHVXSXVHD

ILLQWHUGHSHQGHQWH

 2ELHFWLYXO VWXGLXOXL FRQVW  vQ DQDOL]D UHOD LLORU GH LQWHUGHSHQGHQ  GLQWUH LQYHVWL LLOH vQ

HFRQRPLH; LSURGXFWLYLWDWHDPXQFLLvQLQGXVWULH< FXDFFHQWHSHLQWHQVLWDWHDOHJ WXULLvQRSWLFD

VLQFURQ  GDU PDL DOHV DVLQFURQ  ODJ GH ID]  SHQWUX GLIHULWHOH FRPSRQHQWH GH IUHFYHQ  'DWHOH VH

UHIHU ODGHWULPHVWUHSULYLQGDQLVXFFHVLYL&DOFXOHSUHOLPLQDULL

vQWUXFkWDPEHOHVHULLSUH]HQWDXXQHYLGHQWWUHQGOLQLDUVDvQFHSXWFXHOLPLQDUHDWHQGLQ HL


\ = < -<
 

[ = ; - ;

XQGH ;  <  WHQGLQ DJHQHUDO 

 VWDELOLUHD QXP UXOXL GH EHQ]L GH IUHFYHQ  D GHFXUV I U  D IRUPXOD LSRWH]H DSULRULFH

OXkQGXVH vQ FDOFXO EHQ]LOH GH IUHFYHQ      UHSUH]HQWkQG  GLQ QXP UXO GH WHUPHQL 

$DGDU P   LDU IUHFYHQ HOHH[SULPDWHvQUDGLDQLSHQWUXM DXIRVWRE LQXWHSHED]D

 M
UHOD LHL Z = 
M


 HYDOXDUHD vPSU WLHULL vQ FDGUXO VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH VWD LRQDUL]DWH \  [  FD L vQ YDULDQWD

 
FRPELQDW SULQFDOFXOXOGLVSHUVLLORU s s LDFRYDULDQ HORUFRY[\FRY\[
[ \

RE LQHUHDLQGLFDWRULORUVSHFLILFLDQDOL]HLVSHFWUDOHvQFUXFLDWH

 SXWHUHD VSHFWUXOXL  SHQWUX FDUH VDX RE LQXW SHQWUX IUHFYHQ D  YDORUL PD[LPH vQ

 
DPEHOH VHULL  I =   I =   FHHD FH LQGLF  LPSRUWDQ D GHRVHELW  D DFHVWHL IUHFYHQ H FD
([ ) (\ )

 
L D VXEPXOWLSOXOXL DFHVWHLD  I =   I =   vQ DPEHOH VHULL &HO PDL UHGXV QLYHO DO SXWHULL
(\ ) ([ )

VSHFWUXOXLDIRVWRE LQXWSHQWUXIUHFYHQ DLDUSHQWUXIUHFYHQ D]HURQLYHOXODIRVWUHODWLYPDUHFHHD

FHVHPQDOHD] LQFRPSOHWDHOLPLQDUHDWHQGLQ HL

 FRVSHFWUXO F  L FYDGUDWXUD VSHFWUXOXL T  DX vQUHJLVWUDW PD[LPHOH I o  

UHVSHFWLYT o FHHDFHLQGLF SRVLELOHFRUHOD LLGHID] OHJDWHGHUHVSHFWLYHOHIUHFYHQ H)DSWXOF 

T SHQWUXM DUDW F VXQWSRVLELOHFRUHOD LLDVLQFURQHSHQWUXDVWIHOGHIUHFYHQ H

 LQGLFDWRUXO GH ID]  Y  M    D SUH]HQWDW YDORUL DSURSLDWH SHQWUX WRDWH

IUHFYHQ HOH FHHD FH FRQILUP  SHUVLVWHQ D XQRU OHJ WXUL vQWkU]LDWH GLQWUH FDUH FHD VXUYHQLW  GXS 

SDWUXWULPHVWUHHVWHFHDPDLLPSRUWDQW 

FRHUHQ D& DSUH]HQWDWvQXUPDFDOFXOHORURYDORDUHVHPQLILFDWLYVXSHULRDU SHQWUX

M  FHHD FH LQGLF  IDSWXO F  FRPSRQHQWHOH FDUH GHVFULX RSW RVFLOD LL FRPSOHWH vQWUXQ LQWHUYDO VXQW

 

 ( 3HFLFDQ  &URVVHG 6SHFWUDO $QDO\VLV 5HJDUGLQJ WKH &RUUHODWHG (YROXWLRQ RI (FRQRPLF 3URFHVVHV (FRQRPLFDO

&RPSXWLQJDQG(FRQRPLFDO&\EHUQHWLFV6WXGLHVDQG5HVHDUFKQR

175
FHOHPDLLQWHQVFRUHODWHQWURP VXU PDLPLF DXUH]XOWDWFRUHOD LLLQWHQVHLSHQWUXIUHFYHQ HOH

L

QFKHLHP DFHVW FDSLWRO FRQVDFUDW DQDOL]HL VHULLORU FURQRORJLFH FX PHQ LXQHDF DVWIHOGHVHULL

LQFOXG R PXOWLWXGLQH GH LQIRUPD LL UHOHYDQWH SHQWUX DQDOL]D SURFHVHORU GDU L SHQWUX SURJQR]D

HYROX LHLDFHVWRUD

 $UVHQDOXO PHWRGRORJLF SURSXV GH VWDWLVWLF  GDU PDL DOHV GH HFRQRPHWULH RIHU  SRVLELOLWDWHD

GHVFRSHULULL L XWLOL] ULL XQRU DVWIHO GH LQIRUPD LL )DSWXO F  PHWRGHOH LQYRFDWH vQ FDGUXO DFHVWXL

FDSLWRO VXQW UHODWLY ODERULRDVH L GHVHRUL LPSOLF  UHLWHU UL FRPSDUD LL YHULILF UL DGDSW UL L

DFWXDOL] ULQXWUHEXLHV ILHXQPRWLYGHGHVFXUDMDUHvQDSOLFDUHvQVLWXD LDvQFDUHRVHULHGHSDFKHWH

GH SURJUDPH 0,&52 763 0,&52),7 6\VWDW )25(&$67352 5$76 $5$5 /2786

)25(0$1VXQWELQHDGDSWDWHDFHVWRURELHFWLYH

%,%/,2*5$),(

 %R[ * ( 3 -HQNLQV * 0  7LPH 6HULHV $QDO\VLV )RUHFDVWLQJ DQG &RQWURO +ROGHQ'D\

6DQ)UDQFLVFR

 &XWKEHUWVRQ.+DOO6$SSOLHG(FRQRPHWULFV7HFKQLTXHV:KUHDWRQV/WG

 )RPE\7%5KRGHV*$GYDQFHVLQ(FRQRPHWULFV-$,*UHVV/RQGRQ

 *UDQJHU&:-6SHFWUDO$QDO\VLVRI(FRQRPLF7LPH6HULHV3ULQFHWRQ8QLY3UHVV1<



 *ULIILWKV : -XGJH * &DUWHU +LOO 5  /HDUQLQJ DQG 3UDFWLFLQJ (FRQRPHWULFV -RKQ :LOH\

DQG6RQV

 *XMDUDWL'%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV0F*UDZ+LOO,QF1<

 +DUYH\$&7LPH6HULHV0RGHOV+RZHVWHU1<

 -RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGV0F*UDZ+LOO1<

 0DGGDOD*6,QWURGXFWLRQWR(FRQRPHWULFV0F0LOODQ3XEO

3HFLFDQ(6(FRQRPHWULH(GLWXUD$OO%XFXUHWL

176
 &DSLWROXO;

0RGHOHHFRQRPHWULFHFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH


6FXUWLVWRULFSULYLQGDSDUL LDLHYROX LDvQWLPSDPRGHOHORUFXHFXD LL

PXOWLSOH

'HFHOHPDLPXOWHRULGHVFULHUHDIRUPDO DXQXLSURFHVHFRQRPLFQXVHSRDWHUHDOL]DQXPDL

SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF FRQ LQkQG R VLQJXU  HFXD LH $FHVW OXFUX D LPSXV

HODERUDUHD XQRU PRGHOH HFRQRPHWULFH FRQ LQkQG PDL PXOWH HFXD LL GHQXPLWH PRGHOH FX HFXD LL

PXOWLSOHVDXVLPXOWDQH

0RGHODUHD PDFURHFRQRPLF  FDQWLWDWLY  D DS UXW SH OD VIkULWXO DQLORU

 vQ (XURSD GXS 

FDUHVHSURSDJ SXWHUQLFvQ68$FDUHUHFXSHUHD] LGHYDQVHD] SUHRFXS ULOHvQDFHVWGRPHQLXGLQ

(XURSD

,VWRULF SULPXO PRGHO PDFURHFRQRPHWULF FRPSOHW D IRVW FRQVWUXLW vQ  GH 7LQEHUJHQ

SHQWUXHFRQRPLD ULORUGH-RV

0LFDUHDLQL LDW DVWIHOGH7LQEHUJHQFDUHFk LYDDQLPDLWkU]LXYDFRQVWUXLLSULPXO

PRGHOSHQWUX6WDWHOH8QLWHVHYDGH]YROWDvQ68$VXEFRQGXFHUHDOXL/DZUHQFH.OHLQ

QHYROX LDPRGHO ULLPDFURHFRQRPHWULFHVHSRWGHOLPLWDWUHLSHULRDGH

3ULPD SHULRDG  vQFHSH GLQ DQLL

 L GXUHD]  SkQ  OD PLMORFXO DQLORU
 L UHSUH]LQW  R

SHULRDG GHWDWRQDUHDPRGHO ULL

$FHDVW  SHULRDG  VH vQFKHLH FX HODERUDUHD XQXL PRGHO IRDUWH LPSRUWDQW vQ LVWRULD PRGHO ULL

PDFURHFRQRPHWULFH PRGHOXO .OHLQ*ROGEHUJHU  FDUH SRDWH IL FRQVLGHUDW FD XQ YHULWDELO

VWU PRDOPDMRULW LLPRGHOHORUXOWHULRUHODERUDWHvQ6WDWHOH8QLWH

2 D GRXD SHULRDG  SRDWH IL FRQVLGHUDW  FD vQFHSkQG FX DFHVW PRGHO L GXUHD]  SkQ  OD

VIkULWXODQLORU


3URLHFWXO PRGHOXOXL %URRNLQJV ODQVDW OD vQFHSXWXO DQLORU

 DFRSHU  VLPEROLF DFHDVW  D

GRXDSHULRDG SULQP ULPHDVDGHRULPDLPXOWHHFXD LLGHFkWPRGHOXO.OHLQ*ROGEHUJHUvQ

ORFGH

0RGHOXO %URRNLQJV D GHWHUPLQDW HYROX LD PRGHO ULL vQWUR PDQLHU  IRDUWH LPSRUWDQW  SULQ

DFWLYLWDWHD GH VSHFLILFDUH L HVWLPDUH SH FDUH R LPSOLF  &X WRDWH DFHVWHD D IRVW XQ HHF SHQWUX F 

PRGHOXO D I FXW GHPRQVWUD LD FRQWUDU  D IDSWXOXL F  XQ PRGHO QX VH OLPLWHD]  OD MX[WDSXQHUHD

FRPSRQHQWHORULQGLYLGXDOHRULFkWGHELQHDUILHOHVHSDUDWHFLWUHEXLHV ILHRVWUXFWXU LQWHJUDW 

&HD GHD WUHLD SHULRDG  D PRGHO ULL FDUH vQFHSH OD VIkULWXO DQLORU
 L GXUHD]  SkQ  vQ

]LOHOH QRDVWUH H FDUDFWHUL]DW  GH R DFFHOHUDUH D IHQRPHQXOXL Q SHULRDGD  DX IRVW

FRQVWUXLWH  PRGHOH DOH HFRQRPLHL DPHULFDQH vQ WLPS FH vQ SHULRDGD  DX DS UXW GRDU 

PRGHOH

0 ULPHD PRGHOHORU D FUHVFXW VHQVLELO  PRGHOXO %URRNLQJV QHILLQG R H[FHS LH  vQ SODQ

FDQWLWDWLY DFRUGkQGXVH R LPSRUWDQ  GHRVHELW  IHQRPHQHORU QRPLQDOH GHWHUPLQDUHD SUH XOXL

VHFWRUXO PRQHWDUILQDQFLDU L PHFDQLVPHORU GLQDPLFH PHFDQLVPHOH GH DFXPXODUH PHFDQLVPHOH

DQWLFLS ULORU

Q 6WDWHOH 8QLWH H[LVW  FLUFD  PRGHOH PDFURHFRQRPHWULFH PDUL FX FDUH VH OXFUHD]  vQ

SUH]HQW GLQWUH FDUH GRX  VXQW SXEOLFH FHO DO 'HSDUWDPHQWXOXL GH &RPHU  %($ L FHO DO % QFLL

)HGHUDOHGLQ6W/RXLVFDUHHXQPRGHOGHLQVSLUD LHPRQHWDULVW 3DWUXPRGHOHDSDU LQ

XQRU VRFLHW L SULYDWH GH FRQVXOWLQJFDUHLYkQGSUHYL]LXQLOHvPSUHXQ FXDOWHVHUYLFLLGHLQIRUPDUH

HFRQRPLF 'DWD5HVRXUFHV&KDVH(FRQRPHWULFVHWF0DULOHXQLYHUVLW LVXQWDSURDSHWRDWHGRWDWH

FX PRGHOH DXWRQRPH GH H[HPSOX PRGHOXO :KDUWRQ DO SURI .OHLQ PRGHOXO 036 HODERUDW GH

8QLYHUVLWDWHDGLQ3HQQLV\OYDQLDPRGHOXO0,7DO5H]HUYHORU)HGHUDOH$PHULFDQHHWF

177
 Q (XURSD QX VD DWLQV vQF  DFHVW QLYHO GDU PLFDUHD VD GH]YROWDW FX XQ GHFDODM GH  DQL

ID  GH 6WDWHOH 8QLWH PRGHODUHD ILLQG PXOW PDL GLILFLO  SHQWUX HFRQRPLLOH HXURSHQH FDUH VXQW

GHSHQGHQWHGHH[WHULRU

Q )UDQ D GHPDUDMXO PRGHO ULL PDFURHFRQRPHWULFH D IRVW PXOW PDL WDUGLY SULPHOH PRGHOH

IUDQFH]HDXDS UXWVSUHVIkULWXODQLORU
DGLF ODFLUFDGHDQLGXS GHEXWXOFHORUDPHULFDQHL

OD  GH DQL GXS  PRGHOXO RULJLQDO DO OXL 7LQEHUJHQ %XJHWXO HFRQRPLF D IRVW HODERUDW PXOW WLPS

 I U  D IDFH DSHO OD PRGHOHOH H[SOLFLWH PHWRGD SUHYL]LXQLL I U  PRGHO LDU vQ

DFWLYLWDWHD GH SODQLILFDUH QX VD GLVSXV GH XQ PRGHO PDFURHFRQRPHWULF PRGHOXO ),), GHFkW

vQFHSkQGFXFHOGHDO9,OHD3ODQ

QFHSkQG FX DQXO  PDL PXOW GH  DQL PRGHODUHD PDFURHFRQRPHWULF  VH YD GH]YROWD

vQ )UDQ D vQ SULQFLSDO vQ FDGUXO D GRX  VHUYLFLL DGPLQLVWUDWLYH 'LUHF LD GH 3UHYL]LXQH L ,16((

,QVWLWXWXO 1D LRQDO GH 6WDWLVWLF  L 6WXGLL (FRQRPLFH DIODWH vQWUR OHJ WXU  PDL PXOW VDX PDLSX LQ

VWUkQV FXSURFHGXULOHGHHODERUDUHDEXJHWHORUHFRQRPLFHLDSODQXOXL

3ULPXO PRGHO IUDQFH] =2*2/ D IRVW FRQVWUXLW vQ  ILLQG DSRL vQORFXLW GH PRGHOXO

'(&$ FDUH VXQW GRX  PRGHOH GH EXJHW HFRQRPLF GH LQVSLUD LH NH\QHVLVW  FDUH DX U VSXQV VLWXD LHL

HFRQRPLFH GLQ DFHD SHULRDG  QLYHOXO FHUHULL JOREDOH L FRQGL LLOH GH UHSDUWL]DUH D YHQLWXOXL L

RELHFWLYHORUGHSROLWLF HFRQRPLF SROLWLFDGHUHJODUHDFHUHULLJOREDOH

0RGHOXO 67$5 6FKHPD 7HRUHWLF  D $FXPXO ULL L 5HSRUWXOXL FDUH LD XUPDW vQ 

PRGHOXOXL '(&$  SHQWUX D DVLJXUD SUHYL]LXQHD SH WHUPHQ VFXUW UHSUH]LQW  R DGDSWDUH D

VWUXFWXULLPRGHOXOXLODWHRULDHFRQRPLF GHQDWXU QHRNH\QHVLVW GLQDFHDSHULRDG 

0RGHOXO67$5YDILvQORFXLWGHPRGHOHOH0(75,&L&23$,1

Q DIDUD DFHVWRU PRGHOH GH EXJHW HFRQRPLF DGPLQLVWUD LLOH IUDQFH]H DX HODERUDW vQ DFHDVW  SHULRDG 

XQPRGHOSHWHUPHQVFXUWGHVWLQDWHODERU ULLSUHYL]LXQLORUSODQXOXLPRGHOXO),),

0RGHOXO ),), QX VH PDL ED]HD]  VWULFW SH WHRULD NH\QHVLVW  FL HVWH DGDSWDW L WLSXOXL GH

HFRQRPLH FRQFXUHQ LDO  SXQkQGXVH XQ DFFHQW GHRVHELW SH SROLWLFLOH HFRQRPLFH FDUH FRQGXF OD

ULGLFDUHDFRPSHWLWLYLW LLVHFWRDUHORUHFRQRPLFH

Q GHFXUVXO DQLORU
 VD WUHFXW GH OD PRQRSROXO DGPLQLVWUDWLY OD SOXUDOLVPXO

SUHYL]LXQLORU Q FDGUXO DFHVWXL SOXUDOLVP DO SUHYL]LXQLORU DX DS UXW R VHULH GH LQVWLWX LL SULYDWH GH

SUHYL]LXQH FXP DU IL *$0$ *UXSXO GH $QDOL]  0DFUR(FRQRPLF  $SOLFDW  DO 8QLYHUVLW LL GLQ

1DQWHUUH SUHFXP L DOWH WUHL FHQWUH GH VWXGLX H[WUDDGPLQLVWUDWLYH XQ FHQWUX XQLYHUVLWDU  2)&(

2EVHUYDWRUXO )UDQFH] DO &RQMXQFWXULORU (FRQRPLFH XQ FHQWUX SDWURQDO ,3(&2'( ,QVWLWXWXO GH

3UHYL]LXQH (FRQRPLF  L )LQDQFLDU  SHQWUX 'H]YROWDUHD ,QWUHSULQGHULORU XQ FHQWUX VLQGLFDO 

,5(6,QVWLWXWXOGH&HUFHW UL(FRQRPLFHL6RFLDOHHWF

'HL vQ SUDFWLFD HFRQRPLF  VH XWLOL]HD]  PRGHOH HFRQRPHWULFH GH YROXP PDUH XQ QXP U

PDUHGHHFXD LLWRWXLvQVSHFLDOLQXQXPDLSHQWUXvQ HOHJHUHDLPDQLSXODUHDDFHVWRUDVHSOHDF 

GH OD PRGHOH FX XQ QXP U PDL PLF GH HFXD LL Q DFHVW VHQV vQ FRQWLQXDUH YRU IL SUH]HQWDWH FkWHYD

PRGHOHHFRQRPHWULFHFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOHGHYROXPPLFIRORVLWHGHMDvQWHRULDHFRQRPLF GDUI U R

LQWHUSUHWDUH HFRQRPHWULF FDUH YRU SHUPLWH IDPLOLDUL]DUHD FX DFHVW WLS GH PRGHOH L R WUHFHUH vQ

UHYLVW DHWDSHORUSDUWLFXODULW LORULDVHPQLILFD LLLORUHFRQRPHWULFHSHFDUHOHRIHU DFHVWHD

([HPSOHGHPRGHOHFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH

,0RGHOXOVWDWLFDOOXL.H\QHV

& W = D + E9 W +X
W
()
, 
9
W
=&
W
+ ,
W
( )

,,0RGHOXOGLQDPLFDOOXL.H\QHV

&  = D <  +X ()

,, ,  = E<  + E
<   +X
( ) 


< =& + ,  +* ()

XQGH

   <  9   3,%VDXYHQLWXOQD LRQDOVDXYHQLWXOSHRIDPLOLH

178
 &   FRQVXPXO ILQDO VDX FRQVXPXO ILQDO DO SRSXOD LHL VDX FRQVXPXO SH R

IDPLOLH

   ,   LQYHVWL LLVDXHFRQRPLLLQYHVWL LLI FXWHGHRIDPLOLH

   *  FKHOWXLHOLSXEOLFHFRQVXPXOILQDODODGPLQLVWUD LHLSXEOLFH

   X  YDULDELO DOHDWRDUH

 W =  7  SHULRDGDGHWLPSREVHUYDW 

,,,0RGHOXOGHVFULHULLHFRQRPHWULFHDIRUP ULLSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUX

3W =D +E 2
W
+X
W
()

,,, 3
W
= a + b&
W
+X
W
( ) 

&
W
=2
W
()

,90RGHOXOGHVFULHULLOHJLLFHUHULLLDRIHUWHL

2 W =D

+ D 3
 W
+X
W
()

,9 &
W
=E

+E 3
 W
+E 9
 W
+X
W
( ) 

&
W
=2
W
()

XQGH

2 RIHUWDSURGXVXOXL

&  FHUHUHDSURGXVXOXL

3  SUH XOSURGXVXOXL

9  YHQLWXOFRQVXPDWRULORU

90RGHOSULYLQGRSWLPL]DUHDUDWHLDFXPXO ULLVDXUDWDLQYHVWL LLORU

HI ()

= DU + EU +X
W W W W

( )
Y  
5 = HI U = DU + EU +X
W W W W W W
9 

&
W
= ( - U
W
) 9 W (
 + DU
W

+ EU
W

)+ X W
()


9
W
=&
W
+ ,
W
( )

XQGH

,
U = = UDWDDFXPXO ULLVDXDLQYHVWL LLORU
9

9 - 9  
HI  = = HILFLHQ DLQYHVWL LLORU
,  

9 -9 


5 = = ULWPXOGHFUHWHUHDYHQLWXOXLQD LRQDO
9

9,0RGHOSULYLQGGHVFULHUHDHFRQRPHWULF DP ULPLLLGLQDPLFLLFRQVXPXOXLSRSXOD LHL

&  =D

+D9

+ D &
 
+X 

()

, =E

+E9

+E 9
 
+X
 
( )


9, ,P S  =F

+F 9

+F

3 +X 

() 

3 =G

+G

(9  -9 

)+X  ( )

9 

=& + , + ([S  - ,P S  +* ()

XQGH

,PS   LPSRUWXO

179
 3    SUH XO UHODWLY DO SURGXVHORU LQWHUQH UDSRUWDW OD SUH XO SURGXVHORU GH SH

SLD DH[WHUQ 

([S   H[SRUWXO

9,,0RGHOXOGHVFULHULLVSLUDOHLSUH XULORUDLQIOD LHLLDVDODULLORU


, 
=D

+D 6

+X 

()
9,, 

6 

=E

+E ,

+E : 

+X 

( )

VDX
 
, 
=D

+D 6

+ D ,  

+X 

()
9,,, 

6 

=E

+E ,

+E : 

+E 6 
 
+X 

( )

  XQGH

S
   , LQGLFHOHFRVWXOXLYLH LL
W

   6   VDODULXOPHGLX

   :   SURGXFWLYLWDWHDPXQFLL

0RGHOHOH GH PDL VXV DX PDL PXOW XQ URO GLGDFWLF (OH SRW IL IRORVLWH vQV  DWkW vQ VFRSXUL

H[SOLFDWLYHHXULVWLFHVDXFKLDUGHFL]LRQDOHQSUDFWLFDHFRQRPLF ODQLYHOXOHFRQRPLLORUQD LRQDOH

VHIRORVHVFvQJHQHUDOPRGHOHGHGLPHQVLXQLPDULVXWHVDXFKLDUPLLGHHFXD LL

8Q PRGHO FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH GHVFULH ILH WRWDOLWDWHD WLSXULORU GH UHOD LL HFRQRPHWULFH  UHOD LL

GH FRPSRUWDPHQW HFRQRPLF GH LGHQWLWDWH LQVWLWX LRQDOH VDX WHKQRORJLFH  ILH GRDU DQXPLWH WLSXUL

FD GH H[HPSOX PRGHOXO ,, HVWH IRUPDW GLQWUR HFXD LH GH FRPSRUWDPHQW VRFLRORJLF  GLQWUR

HFXD LHGHFRPSRUWDPHQWILQDQFLDULGLQWURHFXD LHGHLGHQWLWDWH'HUH LQXWF vQWUXQDVWIHO

GHPRGHOYDULDELOHOHHQGRJHQHSRWMXFDLUROLGHYDULDELOHH[SOLFDWLYH

9DULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH VXQW FHOHYDULDELOHFDUHDSDUQXPDLvQSDUWHDVWkQJ DHFXD LLORULDUFHOH

H[RJHQHDSDUQXPDLvQSDUWHDGUHDSW DDFHVWRUD

$VWIHO PRGHOXO ,, HVWH IRUPDW GLQ WUHL YDULDELOH HQGRJHQH &   9   L ,   L GLQ GRX  YDULDELOH

H[RJHQH 9  "!  L *   $FHVWH WLSXUL GH PRGHOH VH FRQVWUXLHVF PDL vQWkL VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  8Q

PRGHOFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOHHVWHVXEIRUP VWUXFWXUDO DWXQFLFkQGUHSUH]LQW GHVFULHUHDIRUPDO DXQHL

WHRULLHFRQRPLFHFXSULYLUHODSURFHVXOVDXVLVWHPXOHFRQRPLFDQDOL]DW'HFHOHPDLPXOWHRULIRUPD

VWUXFWXUDO  D XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VH GHGXFH GLQ VFKHPD ORJLF  D GHSHQGHQ HORU L

LQWHUGHSHQGHQ HORUGLQWUHIHQRPHQHOHFHGHILQHVFSURFHVXOHFRQRPLFGHVFULVGHPRGHO

'HH[HPSOXPRGHOXO,SRDWHILUHSUH]HQWDWVXEXUP WRDUHDIRUP 

9#

&#
,#


)LJXUD

0RGHOXO9,,,SRDWHILIXQGDPHQWDWSHRVFKHP GHIRUPD

180
 ,S# 6#

,S#'$"% :# 6# $&%


)LJXUD

0RGHOHOHFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOHVHSRWFRQVWUXLVDXSRWILvQWkOQLWHVXEGRX IRUPH

PRGHOHFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQH

PRGHOHUHFXUVLYH

)RUPDVWUXFWXUDO LIRUPDUHGXV DXQXLPRGHOFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQH

8Q PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH VH HODERUHD]  VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  DGLF  HO

UHSUH]LQW WUDQVSXQHUHDIRUPDO DWHRULHLHFRQRPLFHUHIHULWRDUHODSURFHVXOHFRQRPLFLQYHVWLJDWSULQ

LQWHUPHGLXOXQXLVLVWHPGHHFXD LL

)RUPD VWUXFWXUDO  HVWH IRUPD LQL LDO  D PRGHOXOXL DD FXP D UH]XOWDW vQ XUPD HWDSHL GH

VSHFLILFDUHUHSUH]LQW VWUXFWXUDHOHPHQWHLFRQH[LXQLSURFHVXOXLGHVFULV

(WDSD GH VSHFLILFDUH FRQVW  vQ DOHJHUHD YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH L VWDELOLUHD QXP UXOXL GH

HFXD LL GLQ IRUPD VWUXFWXUDO  DOHJHUHD QXP UXOXL GH YDULDELOH IDFWRULDOH FRQVLGHUDWH GHWHUPLQDQWH

SHQWUX HYROX LD ILHF UHLD GLQWUH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH VWDELOLUHD IRUPHL ILHF UHL HFXD LL GH UHJUHVLH

GHILQLUHDUHOD LLORUGHLGHQWLWDWHGDF H[LVW 

QJHQHUDOXQPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOHGHVFULHILHWRWDOLWDWHDWLSXULORUGHUHOD LL

HFRQRPHWULFHUHOD LLGHFRPSRUWDPHQWHFRQRPLFGHLGHQWLWDWHLQVWLWX LRQDOHVDXWHKQRORJLFHILH

GRDUDQXPLWHWLSXUL

QWUXQ DVWIHO GH PRGHO YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH SRW MXFD URO L GH YDULDELOH H[SOLFDWLYH

9DULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH VXQW FHOH FDUH DSDU QXPDL vQ SDUWHD VWkQJ  D HFXD LLORU PRGHOXOXL LDU FHOH

H[RJHQHDSDUQXPDLvQSDUWHDGUHDSW DDFHVWRUD

)RUPD JHQHUDO  D XQXL PRGHO HVWH IRUPD vQ FDUH WRDWH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH VXQW vQ DFHODL

WLPS L YDULDELOH H[RJHQH Q JHQHUDO PRGHOHOH FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH VXQW UHSUH]HQWDWH GH DFHOH

PRGHOH FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH vQ FDUH WRDWH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH DSDU vQ WRDWH HFXD LLOH PRGHOXOXL Q

XQHOH FD]XUL SDUWLFXODUH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH DSDU QXPDL vQ DQXPLWH HFXD LL QHUHVSHFWkQG R

DQXPLW UHJXO RDQXPLW RUGLQHvQVXFFHVLXQHDHFXD LLORUPRGHOXOXL

6XEIRUP JHQHUDO XQPRGHOFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQHvQIRUP VWUXFWXUDO VHSUH]LQW DVWIHO

\ +E \ +E \ +  + E \ +F [ +F [ +  + F [ =X 
W  W  W Q QW  W  W P PW W

E \ + \ +E \ +  + E \ +F [ +F [ +  + F [ =X  

 W W  W Q QW  W  W P PW W

                                              

E \ +E \ +E \ +  + \ +F [ +F [ +  + F [ =X 
Q W Q W Q W QW Q W Q W QP PW QW

XQGH

W =  7 7 QXP UXOSHULRDGHORUREVHUYDWH

L =  Q Q QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQH\ ( 

M =  P P QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH[) 

E()   SDUDPHWULL YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH L =  Q  M =  P  GDU SHQWUX L  M  E ( )   DGLF 

QXP UXOSDUDPHWULORUYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHHVWHHJDOFXQQ

181
 F()   SDUDPHWULL YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH [*  M =  Q  DIHUHQ L YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH \ (  L =  Q DO

F URUQXP UHVWHHJDOFXQP

1RWkQGFX

 E,"+ E+/+  E, 0

E
+.,  E+&-  E+ 0
% =  PDWULFHD SDUDPHWULORU E 1 2  DWDD L YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH GH

    


E0 , E0 +   

GLPHQVLXQHQQLDYkQGQQSDUDPHWULLQHFXQRVFX LFHYRUWUHEXLHVWLPD L

\7 4

\ 4
6
< = YHFWRUXOYDORULORUYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHGHGLPHQVLXQHQ




\ 354

F ;/; F ;":  F; 9

F
:.; F :/:  F: 9
& =  PDWULFHD SDUDPHWULORU F 1 2  GH GLPHQVLXQH Q P L DYkQG QP

   


F8 ; F8 :  F 8&9

QHFXQRVFXWH

[ W

[ W
; = YHFWRUXOYDORULORUYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH[2 GHGLPHQVLXQHP




[
PW

X? =

X =
>
8 = PDWULFHDYDORULORUYDULDELOHLDOHDWRDUHX 1 GHGLPHQVLXQHQ




X <5=

0RGHOXO vQ IRUP  JHQHUDO  FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH SUH]HQWDW VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  VFULV VXE

IRUP PDWULFHDO GHYLQH

%<&; 8       

$ UH]ROYD XQ PRGHO GHILQLW GH UHOD LD  vQVHDPQ  D HVWLPD FHL QQ SDUDPHWUL E 1 2  L

FHLQPSDUDPHWULF 1 2 8QSURFHGHXFODVLFGHDHVWLPDFHL>QQQP@SDUDPHWULLFRQVW vQDSOLFDUHD

GLUHFW  D 0&003 6H SRDWH GHPRQVWUD vQV  F  DSOLFDUHD 0&003 ILHF UHL HFXD LL vQ SDUWH

FRQGXFH OD RE LQHUHD GH HVWLPDWRUL GHSODVD L QHVHPQLILFDWLYL 'LQ DFHVW PRWLY HVWLPDUHD

SDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQHQXVHIDFHSHED]DH[SULP ULLOXLVXEIRUP VWUXFWXUDO 

FLSHED]DIRUPHLUHGXVHDDFHVWXLD

)RUPD UHGXV  D XQXL PRGHO VWUXFWXUDO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH SUHVXSXQH FD WRDWH YDULDELOHOH

HQGRJHQH DOH PRGHOXOXL vQ IRUP  JHQHUDO  V  ILH H[SULPDWH QXPDL vQ IXQF LH GH YDULDELOHOH H[RJHQH

DOHDFHVWXLD

3RUQLQG GH OD UHOD LD  IRUPD UHGXV  D PRGHOXOXL

A VWUXFWXUDO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH VH

RE LQHSULQvQPXO LUHDODVWkQJDFXLQYHUVDPDWULFHL%%
A A @ 

<% @ &; % @ 8      

5H]ROYDUHD PRGHOXOXL vQ IRUP  UHGXV   FRQVW  vQ DSOLFDUHD 0&003 ILHF UHL

HFXD LLDDFHVWXLDQDFHVWVHQVVHIDFXUP WRDUHOHVXEVWLWXLUL

182
 A
$   % @ &  PDWULFHD $ DYkQG GLPHQVLXQHD QP L FRQ LQkQG D 1 2  HOHPHQWH  L =  Q  

M =  P 
A
= % @ 8YHFWRUXOFRORDQ DYDULDELOHLDOHDWRDUH

$VWIHOIRUPDUHGXV DPRGHOXOXLGHYLQH

< $;=       

Q XUPD DSOLF ULL 0&003 PRGHOXOXL vQ IRUP  UHGXV   VH YRU RE LQH YDORULOH

FHORUQPHVWLPDWRULk 1 2 UHVSHFWLYHOHPHQWHOHPDWULFHLGHGLPHQVLXQHQP

D EFE E5D
D K D E B


D
DGE DFD
D K D D B

=
$ 



D C E C D
D K D C B

,GHQWLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXL

(WDSD LGHQWLILF ULL HVWH RSHUD LD SULQ FDUH VH UHYLQH OD IRUPD VWUXFWXUDO  SOHFkQG GH OD IRUPD

UHGXV  D PRGHOXOXL GHRDUHFH QXPDL VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  PRGHOXO DUH VHPQLILFD LH HFRQRPLF 

(VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU IRUPHL VWUXFWXUDOH SH ED]D HVWLPDWRULORU IRUPHL UHGXVH VH QXPHWH

LGHQWLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQHvQIRUP UHGXV 

0DWULFHDO DFHDVW  RSHUD LH SUHVXSXQH HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PDWULFHL % L DL PDWULFHL & E 1 2 

LF 1 2  vQQXP UGH>QQQP@SRUQLQGGHODQPSDUDPHWULLHVWLPD LDLPDWULFHL$k H * FXQRFX L% @

A
& DGLF HVWLPDUHDD>QQQP@SDUDPHWULLQHFXQRVFXWHGLVSXQkQGGHQPHFXD LLFHHDFH

PDWHPDWLFQXHSRVELO'HDLFLDSDUWUHLVLWXD LL

 'DF  QXP UXO ]HURXULORU GLQ PDWULFHOH % L & HVWH HJDO FX QQ UHVSHFWLY GDF  vQ

PDWULFHOH % L&H[LVW QQ]HURXULDWXQFLPRGHOXOHVWHMXVWLGHQWLILFDWDGLF QXP UXOHFXD LLORU

QP HVWH HJDO FX QXP UXO QHFXQRVFXWHORU >QQQP@  VLVWHP GH HFXD LL XQLF GHWHUPLQDW 3ULQ

DSOLFDUHD 0&003 DVXSUD IRUPHL UHGXVH D PRGHOXOXL UH]XOW  HVWLPDWRULL SDUDPHWULORU DFHVWHLD

SHED]DF URUDVHGHWHUPLQ SDUDPHWULLIRUPHLVWUXFWXUDOH

 'DF  vQ PDWULFHOH % L &H[LVW XQQXP UGH]HURXULPDLPDUHGHFkWQQPRGHOXOHVWH

VXSUDLGHQWLILFDW GHRDUHFH H[LVW  PDL PXOWH HFXD LL GHFkW QHFXQRVFXWH Q DFHVW FD] HVWLPDWRULL

PRGHOXOXLVHFDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXO0&003DSOLFDWHvQPDLPXOWHVWDGLL

 'DF  vQ PDWULFHOH % L & H[LVW  XQ QXP U GH ]HURXUL PDL PLF GHFkW QQ PRGHOXO HVWH

QRQLGHQWLILFDELO GHFL H[LVW  PDL SX LQH HFXD LL GHFkW QHFXQRVFXWH  QX YRU SXWHD IL FDOFXOD L WR L FHL

>QQQP@SDUDPHWULLE 1 2 LF 1 2 GLVSXQkQGGHQXPDLQPYDORULk 1 2 UHVSHFWLYGHQPHFXD LLQDFHVW

FD]PRGHOXOLQL LDOYDWUHEXLUHFRQVWUXLW

8Q PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  SRDWH IL DOF WXLW GLQ HFXD LL FRUHFW

LGHQWLILFDWHGLQHFXD LLVXSUDLGHQWLILFDWHLGLQHFXD LLQRQLGHQWLILFDWH

 GDF  XQ PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH DUH R VLQJXU  HFXD LH QRQLGHQWLILFDW  PRGHOXO vQ

DQVDPEOXOV XHVWHQRQLGHQWLILFDELO(OYDWUHEXLUHFRQVWUXLWVDXVHYDUHQXQ DODXWLOL]DUHDVD

 GDF  XQ PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH DUH R VLQJXU  HFXD LH VXSUDLGHQWLILFDW  PRGHOXO vQ

DQVDPEOXOV XHVWHVXSUDLGHQWLILFDW

 XQ PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH HVWH MXVW LGHQWLILFDW GDF  WRDWH HFXD LLOH VDOH VXQW FRUHFW

LGHQWLILFDWH

3RUQLQG GH OD DFHVWH FRQVLGHUHQWH VH SRW IRUPXOD FkWHYD UHJXOL SULYLQG LGHQWLILFDUHD XQXL

PRGHOFXHFXD LLVWUXFWXUDOH

 GDF  QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH GLQWUR HFXD LH HVWH HJDO FX QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU

HQGRJHQHPLQXVXQXQDWXQFLHFXD LDHVWHFRUHFWLGHQWLILFDW 

183
  GDF QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUDEVHQWHGLQWURHFXD LHHVWHPDLPDUHGHFkWQXP UXOYDULDELOHORU

HQGRJHQHPLQXVXQXDWXQFLHFXD LDHVWHVXSUDLGHQWLILFDW 

 GDF  QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH GLQWUR HFXD LH HVWH PDL PLF GHFkW QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU

HQGRJHQHPLQXVXQXDWXQFLHFXD LDHVWHQRQLGHQWLILFDELO 

'HLWHRUHWLFLGHQWLILFDUHDXQXLPRGHOFXHFXD
A LLVLPXOWDQHVHSRDWHIDFHILHSHED]DHFXD LHL

PDWULFHDOH $  % @  & ILH SH ED]D GLVFX LHL ILHF UHL HFXD LL vQ SDUWH vQ SUDFWLFD HFRQRPLF  VH

XWLOL]HD]  XOWLPD YDULDQW  0HWRGD GLVFX LHL ILHF UHL HFXD LL HVWH PDL VLPSO  PDL UDSLG  L vQ SOXV

SHUPLWH GHSLVWDUHD HFXD LHL VDX HFXD LLORU QRQLGHQWLILFDELOH FDUH GHJHQHUHD]  PRGHOXO FKLDU vQ

HWDSDGHFRQVWUXLUHDDFHVWXLD

0HWRGHGHHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQH

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQHVHSRDWHUHDOL]DFXGLYHUVHPHWRGHvQ

XUP WRDUHOHFD]XUL

 GDF  PRGHOXO VWUXFWXUDO HVWH UHFXUVLY IRUPD VWUXFWXUDO  FRLQFLGH FX IRUPD UHGXV  ILH VH

DSOLF 0&003GLUHFWILHF UHLHFXD LLDPRGHOXOXLVWUXFWXUDOILHPHWRGDYHURVLPLOLW LLPD[LPH

 GDF  PRGHOXO VWUXFWXUDO QX HVWH UHFXUVLY WUHEXLH DGXV OD IRUPD UHGXV  DSDU XUP WRDUHOH

VLWXD LL

 PRGHO QRQLGHLQWLILFDELO  HVWLPDUHD LPSRVLELO DSDUDPHWULORUPDWULFHORU%L&VH

FRQVWUXLHWHXQQRXPRGHO

 PRGHO MXVW LGHQWLILFDW  VH SRDWH DSOLFD PHWRGD UHJUHVLHL LQGLUHFWH L 0&003 vQ

GRX ID]H

 PRGHO VXSUDLGHQWLILFDW  VH SRDWH DSOLFD 0&003 vQ GRX  ID]H VDX vQ WUHL ID]H

PHWRGD YHURVLPLOLW LL PD[LPH FX LQIRUPD LH OLPLWDW   PHWRGD FRPLVLHL &RZOHV PHWRGD

YDULDELOHORULQVWUXPHQWDOHPHWRGDYHURVLPLOLW LLPD[LPHFXLQIRUPD LHFRPSOHW 

QPRGFXUHQWSHQWUXXOWLPHOHGRX FD]XULVHXWLOL]HD] XUP WRDUHOHPHWRGH

 PHWRGDUHJUHVLHLLQGLUHFWH

 0&003DSOLFDW vQGRX ID]H

 0&003DSOLFDW vQWUHLID]H

0HWRGD UHJUHVLHL LQGLUHFWH VH DSOLF  QXPDL vQ FD]XO PRGHOHORU FRUHFW LGHQWLILFDWH &X

DMXWRUXO DFHVWHLD VH HVWLPHD]  SDUDPHWULL IRUPHL UHGXVH D PRGHOXOXL SULQ DSOLFDUHD 0&003

ILHF UHLHFXD LLvQSDUWHGXS FDUHSHED]DDFHVWRUDVHHVWLPHD] SDUDPHWULLIRUPHLVWUXFWXUDOH

0&003 vQ GRX  ID]H SUH]HQWDW  GH + 7KHLO vQ  VH SRDWH XWLOL]D OD HVWLPDUHD

SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH DWkW vQ FD]XO PRGHOHORU VXSUDLGHQWLILFDWH FkW L vQ

FD]XOPRGHOHORUFRUHFWLGHQWLILFDWH$SOLFDW vQDFHVWXOWLPFD]DFHDVW PHWRG FRQGXFHODUH]XOWDWH

LGHQWLFHFXFHOHRE LQXWHFXDMXWRUXOPHWRGHLUHJUHVLHLLQGLUHFWH

(VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH FX 0&003 vQ GRX  ID]H

SUHVXSXQHHIHFWXDUHDXUP WRDUHORURSHUD LL

 )D]D , VH UHJUHVHD]  ILHFDUH YDULDELO  HQGRJHQ  DPRGHOXOXLQXPDLvQIXQF LHGHYDULDELOHOH

H[RJHQH DOH DFHVWXLD VH HVWLPHD]  SDUDPHWULL DFHVWRU HFXD LL FX DMXWRUXO 0&003 L VH

FDOFXOHD]  YDORULOH WHRUHWLFH DMXVWDWH VDX HVWLPDWH DOH YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH SH ED]D

HFXD LLORUUHVSHFWLYH

 )D]D ,,  vQ HFXD LLOH IRUPHL VWUXFWXUDOH D PRGHOXOXL vQ FDUH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH DSDU FD

YDULDELOH H[RJHQHVHYRULQWURGXFHYDORULOHDFHVWRUDHVWLPDWHvQ)D]D,VHYDDSOLFDGLQQRX

0&003 HFXD LLORU VWUXFWXUDOH L VH YRU RE LQH HVWLPDWRULL SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL FX

HFXD LLVLPXOWDQH

0&003 vQ WUHL ID]H D IRVW SURSXV  GH $ =HOOQHU L + 7KHLO $FHDVWDSUHVXSXQHvQWUR

SULP HWDS DSOLFDUHD0&003vQGRX ID]HvQYHGHUHDXQHLHVWLP ULSUHOLPLQDUHDSDUDPHWULORU

184
IRUPHL VWUXFWXUDOH GXS  FDUH VH HIHFWXHD]  R UHHVWLPDUH SH DQVDPEOX D PRGHOXOXL SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO

0&003 JHQHUDOL]DWH $XWRULL DX GHPRQVWUDW F  DFHDVW  PHWRG  HVWH PDL HILFLHQW  GHFkW

0&003vQGRX ID]HGDUHPDLVHQVLELO ODHURULOHGHVSHFLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXL

)D]D,

 )LHPRGHOXO

, %<&; 8IRUPDVWUXFWXUDO 

,, < $;=IRUPDUHGXV 

VHFRQVLGHU SULPDHFXD LHDPRGHOXOXLvQIRUP VWUXFWXUDO FDUHVHPDLSRDWHVFULHDVWIHO

 

\ = -E \ -E \ -  - E \ -F [ -F [ -  - F [ +X 

W  W  W Q QW  W  W P PW W

9DULDELODHQGRJHQ \ IKJ VHPDLSRDWHVFULHDVWIHO

\ W [ W

\ = - (E K E ) M - (F   K F ) M + X W    
W   Q P

\ [
QW PW

VDXPDWULFHDO

<L = -E L < - F L ; + 8 L        

VHHVWLPHD] \MNJ \O.P UH]XOWkQGYDORULOHDMXVWDWHDOHYDULDELOHLHQGRJHQH

 <  ]         

)D]D,,

QHFXD LDVHvQORFXLHWH<FXYDORDUHDVDHVWLPDW UH]XOWkQG

<Q = -E Q (< )
+ ] - F Q ; + 8 Q  <R = -ER < - F R ; + (8 R

- ER ] ) 

<S = -E S < - F
S ; + h S        

VHFDOFXOHD] YDORULOHHVWLPDWHDOHYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOH]

=<
 ] -< 

VHHVWLPHD] PDWULFHDYDULDQ HORULFRYDULQ HORUUH]LGXXULORU

W
X T X T ]
W T T
X T ]
] ] ] K
T T T U

O

W

] W T KKK W
]
T ] T
T T U



 W = O M 
7

O M

O M
W
] T

TVU

)D]D,,,

WLLQG F  < ; L 8 VXQW YHFWRUL IRUPD L GLQ 7 HOHPHQWH VXE IRUP  PDWULFHDO  < Y  YD IL GH

IRUPD

 <Z = : Z 'Z +8 Z         

XQGH

 :Y  PDWULFHDGHILQLW SOHFkQGGHODYDULDELOHOH<[ ; Y5\^] 

 'Y  PDWULFHDGHILQLW SOHFkQGGHODSDUDPHWULLE _ ` LF _ ` FHXUPHD] DILHVWLPD L

$FHDVW  UHOD LH HVWH YDODELO  L vQ FD]XO FHORUODOWH YDULDELOH HQGRJHQH UH]XOWkQG DVWIHO

XUP WRUXOVLVWHPGHHFXD LL

185
 < =: ' +8
   

< =: ' +8
   
 

M
< =: ' +8
Q Q Q Q

$FHVWDVHPDLSRDWHVFULHLPDWULFHDODVWIHO

< :  ' 8
   

<  :
 ' 8 
= + 

M  O M M


< : ' 8
Q Q Q Q

VDX

< :'8        

6HHVWLPHD] DSRLJOREDOPDWULFHDSDUDPHWULORU'FXDMXWRUXO0&003JHQHUDOL]DW 

( ) (: )
-
- -
' = : W : W <      

' HVWHHVWLPDWRUXORE LQXWSULQ0&003vQWUHLID]H

'H UH LQXW F  WRDWH PHWRGHOH GH HVWLPDUH D SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH VH

IXQGDPHQWHD]  SH LSRWH]HOH GH DSOLFDUH D 0&003 Q DFHVW VHQV vQ WRDWH HWDSHOH VDX ID]HOH GH

DSOLFDUH D 0&003 VH YD UHDOL]D GLVFX LD HFRQRPHWULF  D ILHF UHL HFXD LL SULYLQG DFFHSWDUHD VDX

QRQDFFHSWDUHDLSRWH]HORUYHULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLHVWLPDWRULORULDPRGHOXOXLUHVSHFWLY

([HPSOHGHPRGHOHFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQH

&D]XO0RGHOFRUHFWLGHQWLILFDWPRGHOXOVWDWLFDOOXL.H\QHV

)LHPRGHOXO,

& W = D + E9 W +X
W
()
, 
9
W
=&
W
+ ,
W
( )
Y
6HPQLILFD LDHFRQRPLF DPRGHOXOXL 

 YHQLWXO XQHL IDPLOLL HVWH XWLOL]DW SHQWUX FRQVXP L SHQWUX LQYHVWL LL HFRQRPLL VDX 3,%

HVWHGHVWLQDWFRQVXPXOXLILQDOLLQYHVWL LLORUYH]LHFXD LD

 FRQVXPXO XQHL IDPLOLL FRQVW  GLQ FRQVXPXO DXWRQRP VDX VWRFXULOH GH EXQXUL H[LVWHQWH OD

vQFHSXWXO SHULRDGHL W H[SULPDW GH D L GLQ FKHOWXLUHD XQHL S U L GLQ YHQLWXO RE LQXW vQ SHULRDGD W 

&
YH]LHFXD LD'HUHJXO D!LDU E []  E = UDWDPDUJLQDO DFRQVXPXOXLvQIXQF LHGH
9

YHQLW VDX 3,% UHVSHFWLY FX Fk L OHL FUHWH FRQVXPXO XQXL SURGXV JUXSH GH SURGXVH VDX FRQVXPXO

WRWDODOIDPLOLHLGDF YHQLWXOFUHWHFXOHXFRQVXPXOLYHQLWXOILLQGH[SULPD LvQOHL

'LVFX LDHFRQRPHWULF DPRGHOXOXL

$FHVWPRGHOHVWHFRQVWLWXLWSHED]DDWUHLYDULDELOHGRX YDULDELOHHQGRJHQH& a L9 a Q 

L R YDULDELO  H[RJHQ  , a  (FXD LD  GHVFULH R UHOD LHGHFRPSRUWDPHQWHFRQRPLFLDUHFXD LD

RUHOD LHGHLGHQWLWDWHHFRQRPLF RUHOD LHFRQWDELO 


b
3HQWUX R DQDOL]  HFRQRPLF  DP QXQ LW  D PRGHOXOXL VWDWLF DOOXL.H\QHVYH]L-0.H\QHV7HRULDJHQHUDO DIRORVLULL

PkLQLLGHOXFUXDGREkQ]LLLDEDQLORU(GLWXUDWLLQ LILF %XFXUHWL3$6DPXHOVRQ/

(FRQRPLTXHWRPH

/LEUDLULH$UPDQG&ROLQ3DULV

186
 0RGHOXO , HVWH XQ PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH

ILJXUkQGLFDYDULDELOHH[RJHQHvQHFXD LLOHDFHVWXLD

'LVFX LDHFRQRPHWULF DDFHVWXLDVHSRDWHIDFHSHGRX F L

 SHED]DGLVFX LHLPRGHOXOXLJHQHUDOVWUXFWXUDO

 SHED]DGLVFX LHLILHF UHLHFXD LLDPRGHOXOXL

0RGHOXO, VFULV VWUXFWXUDO VXE IRUP  JHQHUDO   WRDWH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH L H[RJHQH

ILJXUHD] vQWRDWHHFXD LLOHPRGHOXOXLGHYLQH

&
W
- E 9
W
-D ;

+ ,
W
=8

()
, 

-&
W
+ 9
W
+ ;

- ,
W
=8

( )

'H UH LQXW F  DWXQFL FkQG vQ HFXD LLOH DOHDWRDUH DOH PRGHOXOXL DSDUH XQ WHUPHQ OLEHU

SDUDPHWUXODGLQHFXD LDDFHDVWDvQVHDPQ F DSDUHRYDULDELO H[RJHQ ILFWLY ; c FDUHHVWH

XQYHFWRUFRORDQ XQLWDU



; = M


(FXD LDPDWULFHDO FRUHVSXQ] WRDUHPRGHOXOXL,VXEIRUP VWUXFWXUDOJHQHUDO HVWH

%<&; 8

XQGHPDWULFLOHFRUHVSXQ] WRDUHVXQW

 -E & W - D  ;  X 
% =  < =  & =  ; =  8 = 

-  9
W  -  ,
W
X


6XEIRUP UHGXV DGLF YDULDELOHOHHQGRJHQHVXQWUHJUHVDWHQXPDLvQIXQF LHGHYDULDELOHOH

H[RJHQHPRGHOXOPDWULFHDOGHPDLVXVVHWUDQVIRUP vQ
Y Y
<%d &; %d 8

XQGH


 E
f
e
% = 

-E  


- D  -E
f
e
% & =

-E
- D -

1RWkQGFX

-
a b
 D E  -
$ = -% & =  a =  b =  b =  = = % 8 
 
a b -E -E -E


PRGHOXOVXEIRUP UHGXV GHYLQH

<$; =

3ULQDSOLFDUHD0&003FHORUGRX HFXD LLDOHPRGHOXOXLUHGXV

& i = a + bh , i + ] i ()


9i = a + bg , i + ] i ( )

VHHVWLPHD] SDUDPHWULLPDWULFHL$

a
b

$ =


a b


,GHQWLILFDUHD PRGHOXOXL, SUHVXSXQH HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PDWULFHORU % L & $FHDVW 

RSHUD LHVHGHGXFHGLQ

D E 
a =  b =  b = 
 
-E -E -E

UHVSHFWLY

187

D
a
=
a =
D 

-E b


E b

   b = E = 


-E b




b = 


-E

'HRDUHFH WR L SDUDPHWULL PRGHOXOXL VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  DX SXWXW IL HVWLPD L UH]XOW  F 

PRGHOXO,HVWHMXVWLGHQWLILFDW

$FHHHDL FRQFOX]LH VDU IL RE LQXW L SULQ DQDOL]D HOHPHQWHORU PDWULFHORU % L & 'DF  DFHVWH

PDWULFHDUILDYXWWRDWHHOHPHQWHOHQHQXOHDUILUH]XOWDWRSWSDUDPHWULFHDUILWUHEXLWHVWLPD LSHED]D

SHED]DFHORUSDWUXWHUPHQLDLPDWULFHL$'HRDUHFHPDWULFHOH%L&DXGRLWHUPHQLQXOLUHVSHFWLY

QPQ P VHGHGXFHF PRGHOXOHVWHMXVWLGHQWLILFDW

'LVFX LD HFRQRPHWULF  D PRGHOXOXL SH ED]D ILHF UHL HFXD LL VH D[HD]  QXPDL SH HFXD LLOH

DOHDWRDUHDOHPRGHOXOXLVWUXFWXUDO(FXD LDILLQGGHWLSFRQWDELOVWDUHDPRGHOXOXLHVWHGDW QXPDL

GHVWUXFWXUDHFXD LHL$FHDVW HFXD LHFRQ LQHGRX YDULDELOH& j L9 j OLSVLQGXQD, j 'HRDUHFHvQ

FDGUXO HFXD LHL  QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH XQX HVWH HJDO FX QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH

PLQXV XQX Q        HFXD LD  HVWH FRUHFW LGHQWLILFDW  PRGHOXO VWUXFWXUDO , ILLQG XQ

PRGHOFRUHFWLGHQWLILFDW

3DUDPHWULL XQXL PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH MXVW LGHQWLILFDW SRW IL HVWLPD L ILH FX DMXWRUXO

PHWRGHLUHJUHVLHLLQGLUHFWHILHFXDMXWRUXO0&003DSOLFDW vQGRX ID]H

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXL,SULQPHWRGDUHJUHVLHLLQGLUHFWH

$SOLFDUHD DFHVWHL PHWRGH FRQVW  vQ HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU HFXD LLORU IRUPHL UHGXVH FX

0&003GXS FDUHXUPHD] RSHUD LDGHLGHQWLILFDUHHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUIRUPHLVWUXFWXUDOH

SHED]DHVWLPDWRULORUIRUPHLUHGXVH

)RUPD UHGXV  D XQXL PRGHO VWUXFWXUDO FRQVW  vQ UHJUHVDUHD YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH QXPDL vQ

IXQF LH GH YDULDELOHOH H[RJHQH DOHDFHVWXLD2E LQHUHDIRUPHLUHGXVHDPRGHOXOXL,UH]XOW vQXUPD

HIHFWX ULLXUP WRDUHORURSHUD LL

DVHLQWURGXFHHFXD LDvQHFXD LDRE LQkQGXVHHFXD LD

& = D + E & + ,  +X = D + E& + E, +X 

W W W W W W W

D E 
&k = + ,k + Xk 
-E -E -E

6HQRWHD] FX

D
a = 
-E

E
b = 
l

-E


] m = Xm = YDULDELO  DOHDWRDUH KRPRVFHGDVWLF  LQGHSHQGHQW  FH XUPHD] 
-E

RGLVWULEX LHQRUPDO GHPHGLH]HURLDEDWHUHPHGLHS WUDWLF sn  FW

6HRE LQHDVWIHOHFXD LD

& =a + b , + ] 
W  W W

EVHLQWURGXFHHFXD LDvQHFXD LDUH]XOWkQGHFXD LD

D  
9o = D + E9 o + Xo + , o 9p = + ,p + Xp 
- E - E - E


6HQRWHD] FX b = LVHRE LQHHFXD LD
q

-E

9r = a + bs ,r + ] r 

188
 t
FPRGHOXO,VFULVVXEIRUP UHGXV VHSUH]LQW DVWIHO

& W = a +b ,
 W
+ ]
W
()


9
W
= a +b

,
W
+ ]
W
( )

3ULQ DSOLFDUHD 0&003 HFXD LLORU  L  VH YRU RE LQH HVWLPDWRULL
a  b u  L b v  DL

SDUDPHWULORUab w Lbx 

GLGHQWLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQH,SUHVXSXQHHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUDLESH

ED]DYDORULORUHVWLPDWRULORU
a  b y L b v 

(VWLPDUHDDFHVWRUDVHGHGXFHGLQQRWD LLOHHIHFWXDWHDQWHULRU

D
a
   =
a =
D 

-E b


E b

   b = E = 


-E b




   b = 


-E

 L E  D
H vQ ILQDO VH YRU HIHFWXD FDOFXOHOH QHFHVDUH YHULILF ULL VHPQLILFD LHL HVWLPDWRULORU D

VHPQLILFD LHLPRGHOXOXLLDLQGHSHQGHQ HLHURULORU

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXL,FXDMXWRUXO0&003DSOLFDW vQGRX ID]H

)D]D0RGHOXOFRQ LQHGRX YDULDELOHHQGRJHQH& j L9 j LRVLQJXU YDULDELO H[RJHQ , j 

GDU QXPDL YDULDELOD 9 j  HVWH L YDULDELO  H[RJHQ  vQ HFXD LD  $FHDVWD VH YD UHJUHVD QXPDL vQ

IXQF LHGHYDULDELODH[RJHQ , j 

9 z = F + G ,z + Zz 

&X DMXWRUXO 0&003 VH YRU HVWLPD SDUDPHWULL F L G 3H ED]D YDORULORU HVWLPDWH DOH

DFHVWRUDLDYDORULORUYDULDELOHL, j VHYRUHVWLPDYDORULOHOXL9 j 

9 { + G ,{ 
= F

)D]DQHFXD LDDPRGHOXOXL,VHYRULQWURGXFHYDORULOHHVWLPDWH 9| 

& = D + E9 +X 
W W W

3DUDPHWULLDLEYRUHVWLPD LFXDMXWRUXO0&003GXS FDUHVHYRUFRQWLQXDFDOFXOHOHvQ

+E
YHGHUHDDFFHSW ULLPRGHOXOXLRE LQXW & =D 9 
W W

&D]XO0RGHOVXSUDLGHQWLILFDWPRGHOXOGLQDPLFDOOXL.H\QHV

& = D < +X ()

,, , = E< + E~ < }  +X~ ( ) 


< =& + , +* ()

XQGH

   <j  3,%VDXYHQLWXOQD LRQDO

   &j  FRQVXPXOILQDODOSRSXOD LHL

   ,j  LQYHVWL LL

   *j  FKHOWXLHOLSXEOLFHFRQVXPXOILQDODODGPLQLVWUD LHLSXEOLFH

   X j YDULDELO DOHDWRDUH

   D w E w Ex  SDUDPHWULLPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULFFHXUPHD] DILHVWLPD L



)RUPD UHGXV  D PRGHOXOXL VWDWLF DO OXL .H\QHV DUH R VHPQLILFD LH FXQRVFXW  vQ WHRULDHFRQRPLF (DSHUPLWHR

GHILQLUH ULJXURDV  L R H[SOLFDUH ORJLF  D FRQFHSWHORU GH DFFHOHUDWRU b w  L GH PXOWLSOLFDWRU bx  UHVSHFWLY LQIOXHQ D

LQYHVWL LLORUDVXSUDFUHWHULLFRQVXPXOXLLDFUHWHULLYHQLWXOXLVDX3,%XOXL

189
 7UHFHUHD GH OD IRUPD VWUXFWXUDO  OD IRUPD UHGXV  SUHVXSXQH RE LQHUHD XQXL QRX PRGHO vQ

FDUH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH VH UHJUHVHD]  GHSLQG QXPDL vQ IXQF LH GH YDULDELOHOH H[RJHQH 3ULQ

VLPSOH RSHUD LL DOJHEULFH HIHFWXDWH DVXSUD HFXD LLORU    DOH PRGHOXOXL ,, VH DMXQJH OD

PRGHOXO,,)5VXEIRUP UHGXV 

VHvQORFXLHVFvQHFXD LDH[SUHVLLOHOXL& j , j GLQHFXD LLOHL

< = D < + X + E < + E < + X + * 

< ( - D - E ) = E < + * + X + X 

E  X + X
< = < + * + 
 - D + E  - D - E  - D - E

H[SUHVLDRE LQXW SHQWUX< VHvQORFXLHWHvQSULPHOHGRX HFXD LLDOHPRGHOXOXL

D E D D X + D X +X - D X - E X
& = < + * + 
 - D - E  - D - E  - D - E

D E D X + D X - E X
& = < + * + 
 - D - E  - D - E  - D - E

(X )

E E E E +X
, = < + * + +E < +X 
 - D - E  - D - E  - D - E

E ( - D ) E X + E X - D X
, = < + * + 
 - D - E  - D - E  - D - E

'HFLPRGHOXOVXEIRUP UHGXV VHSUH]LQW DVWIHO

D E D X + D X - E X
& = < + * +

 - D - E  - D - E  - D - E

E ( - D ) E X + E X - D X
,,)5 , = < + * + 
 - D - E  - D - E  - D - E

E  X +X
<
= < + * +
 - D + E  - D - E  - D - E

1RWkQGFX

E
U =

 - D - E
U = E U 



U =
 - D - E

D E
P = = D U = D E U = E P 
 - D - E

D
P = = D U 
 - D - E

E ( - D ) E E D
Q = = - = U - D U = U ( - D ) 
 - D - E  - D - E  - D - E

E
Q = = E U 
 - D - E

X + D X -E X
= ] 
- D -E

X +E X -D X


= ] 
-D -E

X +X


= ] 
- D -E

190
 XQGH] K ]N ]  YDULDELOHDOHDWRDUH

QXUPDHIHFWX ULLvQORFXLULORUPRGHOXO,,)5vQIRUP UHGXV GHYLQH

( )

& = P < + P * + ] 

( )


,,)5 , = Q < + Q * + ]  

( )

9
= U < + U * + ]

6HPQLILFD LDHFRQRPLF DPRGHOXOXL,,

$FHVWD VH IXQGDPHQWHD]  SH DFHOHDL SUHPLVH HFRQRPLFH FD L PRGHOXO , GDU SULQ

VHSDUDUHD FRQVXPXOXL vQ GRX  FRPSRQHQWH &   FRQVXPXO SRSXOD LHL L *   FKHOWXLHOL

JXYHUQDPHQWDOHVDXFRQVXPXOVWDWXOXLDUHDSOLFDELOLWDWHQXPDLODQLYHOPDFURHFRQRPLF

QSOXVID GHPRGHOXO,SULQLQWURGXFHUHDYDULDELOHLGHFDODWH< " 3,%XOGLQSHULRDGD

WUHFXW  FDS W  XQ DVSHFW GLQDPLF FHHD FH vO IDFH DSW QX QXPDL SHQWUX VFRSXUL H[SOLFDWLYH FL L

SHQWUXVLPXO ULLSURJQR] 

(FXD LDDPRGHOXOXLDUHVXSRUWHFRQRPLFGHRDUHFHGHFHOHPDLPXOWHRULLQYHVWL LLOHGLQ

SHULRDGDFXUHQW VXQWILQDQ DWHGLQYHQLWXULOHSHULRDGHLWUHFXWH

'LVFX LDHFRQRPHWULF DPRGHOXOXL

0RGHOXO,,FRQ LQHWUHLQ YDULDELOHHQGRJHQH& , L< LGRX YDULDELOHH[RJHQH<

 L *  (FXD LD  GHVFULH R UHOD LH GH FRPSRUWDPHQW VRFLDO HFXD LD  R UHOD LH GH FRPSRUWDPHQW

ILQDQFLDULDUHFXD LDRUHOD LHFRQWDELO 

0RGHOXO ,, HVWH XQ PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  GHRDUHFH WRDWH

YDULDELOHOHHQGRJHQHVXQWLYDULDELOHH[RJHQHvQHFXD LLOHPRGHOXOXL

(FXD LD  HVWH VXSUDLGHQWLILFDW  GHRDUHFH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH HVWH HJDO FX WUHL

QXP UVXSHULRUQXP UXOXLGHYDULDELOHHQGRJHQHPLQXVXQX!Q  

(FXD LD  HVWH FRUHFW LGHQWLILFDW  GHRDUHFH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH HVWH HJDO FX

GRLLHVWHHJDOFXQXP UXOGHYDULDELOHHQGRJHQHPLQXVXQX Q  

'HRDUHFH PRGHOXO FRQ LQH R HFXD LH GH LGHQWLWDWH XQD FRUHFW LGHQWLILFDW  L DOWD

VXSUDLGHQWLILFDW  HVWH VXSUDLGHQWLILFDW LDU HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU IRUPHL VWUXFWXUDOH VH YD IDFH FX

DMXWRUXO0&003vQGRX ID]H

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXLVXSUDLGHQWLILFDWSHED]D0&003vQGRX ID]H

)D]D,

9DULDELOD <  HVWH VLQJXUD YDULDELO  HQGRJHQ  FDUH vQ HFXD LLOH  L  HVWH L YDULDELO 

H[RJHQ &DDWDUHHDYDILUHJUHVDW vQIXQF LHGHFHOHGRX YDULDELOHH[RJHQH< " L* 

< = U < + U * + ] 

(VWLPDWRULL
U L
U  YRU IL GHWHUPLQD L FX DMXWRUXO 0&003 LDU SH ED]D YDORULORU
 

DFHVWRUDYRUILHVWLPDWHYDORULOHWHRUHWLFHDOHYDULDELOHL< 

< * 
< = U + U      

)D]D,,

Q HFXD LLOH  L  DOH PRGHOXOXL VWUXFWXUDO ,, VH YRU LQWURGXFH YDORULOH DMXVWDWH < 

RE LQkQGXVHHFXD LLOH

& =D< +X      
W  W W

, =E < +E < +X      
W  W  W - W

191
 3ULQ DSOLFDUHD 0&003 HFXD LLORU  L  YRU IL HVWLPD L SDUDPHWULL PRGHOXOXL

( )


E
VWUXFWXUDO D E LDSRLYDXUPDWHVWDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLDFHVWRUD 

&D]XO   0RGHO QRQLGHQWLILFDELO  GHVFULHUHD OHJLL FHUHULL L D OHJLL RIHUWHL XQXL DQXPLW

SURGXVSHRDQXPLW SLD vQSHULRDGDW W =  7 

2 W =D

+D 3
 W
+X
W
()

,,, &
W
=E

+E 3
 W
+E 9
 W
+X
W
( ) 

&
W
=2
W
()

XQGH

2 RIHUWDSURGXVXOXL

& FHUHUHDSURGXVXOXL

3 SUH XOSURGXVXOXL

9 YHQLWXOFRQVXPDWRULORU

6HPQLILFD LDHFRQRPLF DPRGHOXOXL

0RGHOXO SUH]HQWDW PDL VXV GHVFULH vQ PRG ILGHO WHRULD HFRQRPLF  SULYLQG FRPSRUWDPHQWXO

DJHQ LORUHFRQRPLFLLDOFRQVXPDWRULORU

(FXD LDDUDW F SURGXF WRULLvLP UHVFRIHUWDSHP VXU FHFUHWHSUH XOSURGXVXOXLD !



(FXD LD  H[SULP  FRUHOD LD LQYHUV  GLQWUH FHUHUH L SUH  E   L LPSRUWDQ D RIHUWHL vQ

VDWLVIDFHUHDQHYRLORUFRQVXPDWRULORUSULQYDORDUHDOXLE   E  

(FXD LD  UHOHY  HFKLOLEUXO FH WUHEXLH V  VH PDQLIHVWH SH SLD D SURGXVXOXL SHQWUX D DQLKLOD

WHQGLQ HOH FRQWUDUH DOH FUHWHULL SUH XOXL VSRULUHD RIHUWHL L GLPLQXDUHD FHUHULL WHQGLQ H FDUH DU GXFH

ODGLVWUXJHUHDSLH HLUHVSHFWLYODIDOLPHQWXOSURGXF WRULORUSULQGLVSDUL LDFHUHULL

'LVFX LDHFRQRPHWULF DPRGHOXOXL

0RGHOXO ,,, HVWH XQ PRGHO FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  FDUH FRQ LQH GRX 

YDULDELOHHQGRJHQH& 2 4 YROXPXOSURGXF
LHLFHWUHEXLHV H[LVWHSHSLD L

3 SUH XOGHYkQ]DUHDOSURGXVXOXL LRYDULDELO H[RJHQ 9  YHQLWXOFRQVXPDWRULORU

3DUDPHWULL D  E  L E  UHSUH]LQW  UDWHOH PDUJLQDOH DOH RIHUWHL vQ IXQF LH GH SUH  DOH FHUHULL vQ

IXQF LHGHSUH XOSURGXVXOXLLvQIXQF LHGHYHQLW

(FXD LD  HVWH FRUHFW LGHQWLILFDW  GHRDUHFH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH XQX HVWH HJDO

FXQXP UXOYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHPLQXVXQX Q  

(FXD LD  HVWH QRQLGHQWLILFDW  GHRDUHFH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH ]HUR HVWH PDL PLF

GHFkWQXP UXOYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHPLQXVXQXQ  

0RGHOXO ,,, FRQ LQkQG R HFXD LH FRUHFW LGHQWLILFDW  L XQD QRQLGHQWLILFDELO  HVWH XQ PRGHO

QRQLGHQWLILFDELO DGLF  vQ HWDSD GH LGHQWLILFDUH QX YRU SXWHD IL HVWLPD L WR L SDUDPHWULL IRUPHL

VWUXFWXUDOH

(VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO QRQLGHQWLILFDW VH IDFH DWkW FkW HVWH SRVLELO FX DMXWRUXO

PHWRGHL UHJUHVLHL LQGLUHFWH Q DFHVW VFRS PRGHOXO VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  WUHEXLH DGXV OD IRUPD

UHGXV 

)RUPDUHGXV DPRGHOXOXL,,,

3RUQLQGGHODHFXD LDUH]XOW F 

   D + D 3 + X = E + E 3 + E 9 + X 



 0RGHOXO ,, SUH]LQW  LQWHUHV PDL DOHV WHRUHWLF L VXE IRUP  UHGXV  'DU vQ DFHVW FD] HVWLPDWRULL IRUPHL

VWUXFWXUDOHQXYRUDYHDVROX LLXQLFH

 'HL DSDUHQW vQ HFXD LLOH PRGHOXOXL ,,, 3  DSDUH QXPDL FD YDULDELO  H[RJHQ  HFXD LD  UHOHY  R UHDOLWDWH

HFRQRPLF FXPS UDUHDXQXLSURGXVGHSLQGHvQSULPXOUkQGGHYHQLWXOFHORUFDUHDXQHYRLHGHHO

192
 E - D E 
 3 = + 9 + X -X  
D -E D -E D -E

6HLQWURGXFHHFXD LDvQHFXD LD& 2 4 

E  - D E


2 =E +E + 9 + X -X  +E 9 +X 
W   W W W  W W
D -E D -E D -E
     

E D -E E +E E -E D E E + D E -E E E X -E X +D X -E X

 2 = + 9 + 
D -E D -E D -E

E D -E D D E D X -E X

2 = + 9 +  
D -E D -E D -E

1RWkQGFX

E - D
= a 
D - E

E
=a 
D - E


X - X  = ] YDULDELO DOHDWRDUH
D - E

E D - E D
= b 
D - E

D E

=b 

D -E

D X - E X
= ] YDULDELO DOHDWRDUH
D - E

0RGHOXOVXEIRUP UHGXV YDILGHIRUPD

3W = a  + a 9 W + ] W ()
 ,,,)5 
2
W
=b

+b9
 W
+ ]
W
( )

3DUDPHWULL a  a  b  b  VH HVWLPHD]  FX DMXWRUXO PHWRGHL FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH DSOLFDW 

 b
 a
ILHF UHLHFXD LLvQSDUWH)LH a L b HVWLPDWRULLDFHVWRUSDUDPHWULRE LQX LFX0&003

,GHQWLILFDUHD PRGHOXOXL ,,,  HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL VWUXFWXUDO  SUHVXSXQH

FDOFXODUHDYDORULORUFHORUFLQFLSDUDPHWULLQHFXQRVFX LD D E E E SHED]DDSDWUXHVWLPDWRUL

 b
 a
FXQRVFX L a L b XWLOL]kQGUHOD LLOH

E - D

a = 
D - E

E

a = 
D - E

E D - E D

b = 
D - E

D E

b = 
D - E

Q OLSVD XQHL DOWH UHOD LL vQWUH SDUDPHWULL PRGHOXOXL VWUXFWXUDO GLQ FHOH SDWUX UHOD LL GH PDL

VXVQXYDSXWHDILHVWLPDWGHFkWSDUDPHWUXOD 

D E E b b
 =
D = 
D - E D - E
a
a

193
 Q SUDFWLFD HFRQRPLF  XQHRUL vQ FD]XO PRGHOHORU QRQLGHQWLILFDELOH HVWLPDWRULL PRGHOXOXL

VWUXFWXUDO VH GHWHUPLQ  FX DMXWRUXO 0&003 DSOLFDW  GLUHFW HFXD LLORU DFHVWRUD 'DU GH FHOH PDL

PXOWHRULHVWLPDWRULLRE LQX LQXVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHUL LGH]HUR

0RGHOHUHFXUVLYH

6SUH GHRVHELUH GH PRGHOHOH FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH FDUH SHUPLW GHVFULHUHD UHOD LLORU GH

LQWHUGHSHQGHQ  GLQWUH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH DOH XQXL SURFHV VDX VLVWHP HFRQRPLF PRGHOHOH

UHFXUVLYH FRQVWDX vQ FRQVWUXLUHD XQRU HFXD LL FDUH VH vQO Q XLHVF ORJLF YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH GLQ

HFXD LLOH SUHFHGHQWH GHYLQ YDULDELOH H[RJHQH vQ HFXD LLOH XUP WRDUH DGLF  YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH

UHVSHFW RDQXPLW UHJXO RDQXPLW RUGLQHvQWUDQVIRUPDUHDORUvQYDULDELOHH[RJHQH

6XE IRUP  JHQHUDOL]DW  XQ PRGHO UHFXUVLY HVWH GHVFULV DMXWRUXO XUP WRUXOXL VLVWHP GH

HFXD LL

\ + K + F/ [ + F" [ + K + F [ = X

E \ + \ + K + F. [ + F/ [ + K + F [ = X
.




E \ + E \ + K + \ + F [ + F [ + K + F& [ = X

FDUHVXEIRUP PDWULFHDO GHYLQH

F F  F [

   \ X
K K



F F  F
  \

E [ X
 K K
 

+ =

   M    M M

F 

E  E  K  \ F  F K
[ X


 
(  ) (  ) ( 
) ( ) (  )

VDX %<  &;  8 XQGH PDWULFHD % HVWH R PDWULFH WULXQJKLXODU  DGLF  WR L SDUDPHWULL PDWULFHL %

VLWXD LGHDVXSUDGLDJRQDOHLSULQFLSDOHDDFHVWHLDVXQWQXOLE  SHQWUXM!

Q DFHVW FD] VH SRDWH GHPRQVWUD F  HVWLPDWRULL UH]XOWD L LQ XUPD DSOLF ULL GLUHFWH D

0&003 ILHF UHL HFXD LL D PRGHOXOXL UHFXUVLY VXQW QHGHSODVD L FRQYHUJHQ L L HILFDFH GDF  SRW

IL DFFHSWDWH LSRWH]HOH SH FDUH VH IXQGDPHQWHD]  0&003 UHVSHFWLY F  PHWRGD YHURVLPLOLW LL

PD[LPH vQ DFHDVW  VLWXD LH FRQVW  vQ HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU HFXD LLORU VWUXFWXUDOH FX DMXWRUXO

0&003

3RUQLQG GH OD IRUPD JHQHUDO  D XQXL PRGHO UHFXUVLY VH SRW HODERUD PXOWLSOH IRUPH WHRUHWLFH

SDUWLFXODUHFXPDUILGHH[HPSOX

0RGHOXO$

\ = D  [ + D
[
+ X ()

\

= \ + \  + [ ( ) 


\ = E \
+ E
[ + E [
+ X
( )

0RGHOXO$FRQ LQHWUHLYDULDELOHHQGRJHQH\ \ \ Q LWUHLYDULDELOHH[RJHQH[ [ 

[  (FXD LD  ILLQG R HFXD LH GH LGHQWLWDWH I U  SDUDPHWULL GH HVWLPDW QX QHFHVLW  R GLVFX LH

HFRQRPHWULF  (FXD LD  HVWH R HFXD LH VXSUDLGHQWLILFDW  GHRDUHFH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH 

WUHLHVWHPDLPDUHGHFkWQXP UXOYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHPLQXVXQX!Q  LDUHFXD LD

194
 HVWH FRUHFW LGHQWLILFDW  GHRDUHFH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH  GRL HVWH HJDO FX QXP UXO

YDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHPLQXVXQX Q  

$FHVW PRGHO ILLQG XQ PRGHO VXSUDLGHQWLILFDW HVWLPDWRULL V L YRU WUHEXL GHWHUPLQD L FX

DMXWRUXO 0&003 vQ GRX  ID]H GDU R DQDOL]  HFRQRPHWULF  D PRGHOXOXL VWUXFWXUDO $ YD UHOHYD

F  DFHVWD HVWH XQ PRGHO UHFXUVLY L FD DWDUH HVWLPDWRULL DFHVWXLD SRW IL FDOFXOD L FX R PHWRG  PDL

VLPSO 0&003DSOLFDW GLUHFWFHORUGRX HFXD LLVWUXFWXUDOHL

$VWIHOGDF HFXD LDVHLQWURGXFHvQHFXD LDDFHDVWDGHYLQH

\ = E  \ + \  + [   + E [  + E [  + X   ( - E )\ -E \ -E [ -E [ -E [ =X 
          

0RGHOXO$GHVFULVSHED]DHFXD LLORULVHWUDQVIRUP vQ

\  + K - D [  - D [  + K =X
 
- E \  +   - E  \  - E [  - E [  - E [  =X

FDUHVXEIRUP PDWULFHDO VHSUH]LQW DVWIHO

[

-D - D
  \

  X

 + [  = 

- E  - E \  - E - E - E X

[ 

0DWULFHD%GLQHFXD LDPDWULFHDO %<&; 8ILLQGRPDWULFHWULXQJKLXODU HVWHGHIRUPD

 
% =   

-E - E

UH]XOW F PRGHOXO$GHVFULVGHFHOHWUHLHFXD LLVWUXFWXUDOHDOHPRGHOXOXLHVWHXQPRGHOUHFXUVLY

0RGHOXO%

\ 
+ K+D 
[

=X

()

E \
 
+ \

+D

[

=X

( )

0RGHOXO % HVWH XQ PRGHO FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  FRQVWUXLW SH ED]D D WUHL

YDULDELOHGRX HQGRJHQH\ \ Q LXQDH[RJHQ [ 

'DF DFHVWDHVWHWUDWDWFDXQPRGHOFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQHUH]XOW F 

 HFXD LD  HVWH FRUHFW LGHQWLILFDW  GHRDUHFH QXP UXO YDULELOHORU DEVHQWH   HVWH HJDO FX

QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHPLQXVXQX 

 HFXD LD  HVWH QRQLGHQWLILFDW  GHRDUHFH QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH ]HUR HVWH PDL PLF

GHFkWQ 

'DWRULW  HFXD LHL  PRGHOXO % HVWH XQ PRGHO QRQLGHQWLILFDELO DGLF  QX YDSXWHDILHVWLPDW

GHFkW SDUDPHWUXO D  'DU GDF  VH YD SOHFD GH OD IRUPD JHQHUDO  D PRGHOXOXL VWUXFWXUDO VH YD

FRQVWDWDF %PDWULFHDSDUDPHWULORUYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHHVWHRPDWULFHWULXQJKLXODU 

\ +  \  + D [ = X ()


E \ + \ + D [ = X ( )

  \ D X
+ [ = 
   
E  \ D X

%<&; 8

0RGHOXO % ILLQG XQ PRGHO UHFXUVLY HVWLPDWRULL DFHVWXLD SRW IL FDOFXOD L FX DMXWRUXO

0&003DSOLFDW GLUHFWFHORUGRX HFXD LLVWUXFWXUDOH

195
 ([HPSOHGHPRGHOHHFRQRPHWULFHUHFXUVLYH

([LVW  QXPHURDVH FD]XUL vQ FDUH XUPkQG WHRULD HFRQRPLF  D XQXL SURFHV VDX VLVWHP

HFRQRPLF GHSHQGHQ HOH L LQWHUGHSHQGHQ HOH GLQWUH IHQRPHQHOH HFRQRPLFH SRW IL GHVFULVH FX

DMXWRUXOPRGHOHORUGHDFHVWWLSFDGHH[HPSOX

0RGHOXO,(VWLPDUHDOHJLLFHUHULLXQXLDQXPLWSURGXV

\ 
=D

+ D [
 
+X

()

\ 
=E

+E \
 
+X

( ) 


\

=F

+F

\

+F

[

+X

()

0RGHOXOVHPDLSRDWHVFULHDVWIHO

\

-D

-D [
 
=X

()

- E \ 
+ \

-E

=X

( ) 


-F

\

+ \

-F

-F

[

=X

()

LDUVXEIRUP PDWULFHDO 

- D - D
   \

   X


-E  \ + - E [ = X
       



 -F   \  -F   -F [  X

 

%<&; 8

6HPQLILFD LDHFRQRPLF DPRGHOXOXL

 FRVWXO XQLWDU GH SURGXF LH \  GHSLQGH vQ PRG HYLGHQW GH YROXPXO SURGXF LHL DFHVWXLD [ 

'LQ SXQFW GH YHGHUH HFRQRPLF FRVWXO DU WUHEXL V  VFDG SHP VXUDFUHWHULLSURGXF LHLFDXUPDUHD

FKHOWXLHOLORUFRQVWDQWHD  LD 

SUH XOGHYkQ]DUH\ HVWHGHWHUPLQDWvQPRGKRW UkWRUGHFRVWXOXQLWDUGHSURGXF LH\ E

!

 FHUHUHD SURGXVXOXL \  HVWH LQIOXHQ DW  QHJDWLY GH SUH XO GH YkQ]DUH \  F   L SR]LWLY

GHYHQLWXULOHFRQVXPDWRULORU[ F !

'LVFX LDHFRQRPHWULF DPRGHOXOXL

0RGHOXO , HVWH XQ PRGHO FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH VXE IRUP  VWUXFWXUDO  DYkQG FLQFL YDULDELOH

WUHL HQGRJHQH \  \  \  L GRX  H[RJHQH [  L [  QO Q XLUHD FDX]DO  GLQWUH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH

ILLQG VXFFHVLY  PRGHOXO HVWH GH WLS UHFXUVLY $FHDVW  FRQFOX]LH UH]XOW  L GLQ DQDOL]D PDWULFHL %

  

PDWULFHDSDUDPHWULORUYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHFDUHHVWHWULXQJKLXODU  % = - E   


 -F 


$FHVW PRGHO ILLQG XQ PRGHO UHFXUVLY SDUDPHWULL V L SRW IL HVWLPD L FXDMXWRUXO0&003

DSOLFDW ILHF UHLHFXD LLDPRGHOXOXLVWUXFWXUDO

0RGHOXO,,(VWLPDUHDOHJLLRIHUWHLXQXLSURGXVDJULFRO

196
 \ W
=D

+D \
 W
+X
W
()


\
W +
=E

+E \
 W
+E

( \ W + - \
W
) + X W ( )

6HPQLILFD LDHFRQRPLF DPRGHOXOXL,,

0RGHOXO ,, GHVFULH OHJHD RIHUWHL SH ED]D UHOD LLORU GH LQWHUGHSHQGHQ  GLQWUH SUH  \ !  L

RIHUW  \"  (FXD LD  UHSUH]LQW  UHOD LD FODVLF  D OHJLL RIHUWHL D ! !  LDU HFXD LD  VH

IXQGDPHQWHD]  SH LSRWH]D GH DQWLFLSDUH D SUH XOXL GH F WUH SURGXF WRULL DJULFROL Q DFHVW GRPHQLX

UHDF LDSURGXF WRULORUDJULFROLODHYROX LDSUH XULORUHVWHvQJHQHUDOGHXQDQ'HH[HPSOXVXSUDID D

FDUH YD IL vQV PkQ DW  FX JUkX vQ DQXO W GHSLQGH GH SUH XO GLQ DFHO DQ GDU L GH LQIRUPD LLOH SH FDUH

OH SRVHG  SURGXF WRULL LQIRUPD LLOH GLQ GRPHQLXO UHVSHFWLY SULYLQG DEDWHULOH GLQWUH SUH XULOH

HIHFWLYHS # $%! LSUH XULOHDQWLFLSDWHS # 

'LVFX LDHFRQRPHWULF DPRGHOXOXL,,

$FHVW PRGHO HVWH XQ PRGHO FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH DYkQG SDWUX YDULDELOH GRX  HQGRJHQH \ !&#  L

\"'# $%! LGRX H[RJHQH[ ! \"'# L[" \ !&# $%! \ !&# 

'HRDUHFH YDULDELOD HQGRJHQ  \ !&#  H[SOLF  vQ HFXD LD  YDULD LD vQ WLPS D YDULDELOHL HQGRJHQH

\"'# $%! GDUDFHDVWDQXILJXUHD] vQHFXD LDPRGHOXO,,HVWHGHWLSUHFXUVLYPDWULFHDSDUDPHWULORU

 
YDULDELOHLHQGRJHQHILLQGGHIRUPD % = 

-E 


0RGHOXO ,, ILLQG GH WLS UHFXUVLY HVWLPDWRULL SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL VH SRW FDOFXOD FX

DMXWRUXO 0&003 DSOLFDW  GLUHFW FHORU GRX  HFXD LL DOH PRGHOXOXL DFHWLD ILLQG vQ DFHVW FD]

HVWLPDWRULQHGHSODVD LFRQYHUJHQ LLHILFLHQ L

$O WXULGHFHOHGRX PRGHOHHFRQRPHWULFHSUH]HQWDWHPDLVXVPDLSRWILDPLQWLWHFDPRGHOH

GH WLS UHFXUVLY PRGHOXO

( GHVFULHULL HFRQRPHWULFH D IRUP ULL SUH XOXL GH HFKLOLEUX L PRGHOXO

RSWLPL] ULLSURILWXOXL 

'H UH LQXW vQ ILQDO F  PRGHOHOH HFRQRPHWULFH FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH UHSUH]LQW  vQ SUH]HQW

SULQFLSDOXOLQVWUXPHQWGHOXFUXvQGRPHQLXOPDQDJHPHQWXOXLODQLYHOPLFURVDXPDFURHFRQRPLF

SHQWUX R IXQGDPHQWDUH PDL ULJXURDV  L QX LQWXLWLY  VDX GHVFULSWLY  D GHFL]LLORU Q DFHVW VHQV

PRGHOHOHGHDFHVWWLSSRWILIRORVLWHFXSUHF GHUHvQDFWLYLW LGHH[SOLFDUHVLPXODUHLvQVSHFLDOOD

HVWLPDUHDSUREDELO DHYROX LLORUIHQRPHQHORUHFRQRPLFH

2 SUREOHP  FDUH U PkQH GHVFKLV  VH UHIHU  OD JUDGXO GH VLPLOLWXGLQH GH SHUWLQHQ  VDX

FRPSDWLELOLWDWH D VWUXFWXULL PRGHOHORU FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH L D PRGHOHORU UHFXUVLYH FX VWUXFWXUD

SURFHVHORU VDX VLVWHPHORU HFRQRPLFH SH FDUH R GHVFULX 2SLQLLOH FX SULYLUH OD DFHVW VXELHFW VXQW

vPS U LWH

3UHIHULQ D QRDVWU  VH vQGUHDSW  vQV  VSUH PRGHOHOH UHFXUVLYH XWLOL]DWH vQ VSHFLDO FD PRGHOH

RSHUD LRQDOH

$FHDVW SUHIHULQ SRDWHILMXVWLILFDW DVWIHO

 PRGHOHOH FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH SUHVXSXQ R GHSHQGHQ  PXWXDO  I U  QLFL R SULRULWDWH VDX

vQO Q XLUH FDX]DO  ORJLF  vQWUH YDULDELOHOH HFRQRPLFH vQ WLPS FH PRGHOHOH UHFXUVLYH GHVFULX

GHSHQGHQ H FDX]DOH XQLODWHUDOH FH SRW IL RUGRQDWH vQ IXQF LH GH VXFFHVLXQHD GHSHQGHQ HORU L

LQWHUGHSHQGHQ HORUGLQWUHIHQRPHQHOHHFRQRPLFH )
 vQ HFRQRPLH UHDF LD IHQRPHQHORU OD PRGLILFDUHD IDFWRULORU QX HVWH vQ JHQHUDO VLPXOWDQ 

vQDFHHDLSHULRDG GHWLPSPDLDOHVGDF QHUHIHULPODSHULRDGHPLFLGHWLPSOXQLVDXWULPHVWUH

$FHVW IDSW SHUPLWH vQ XQHOH FD]XUL FD PRGHOHOH FX HFXD LL VLPXOWDQH QRQLGHQWLILFDWH V  ILH

WUDQVIRUPDWH ILH vQ PRGHOH UHFXUVLYH ILH vQ PRGHOH FRUHFW VDX VXSUDLGHQWLILFDWH SULQ WUDQVIRUPDUHD

XQRU YDULDELOH HQGRJHQH vQ YDULDELOH H[RJHQH vQ DQXPLWH HFXD LL VDX SULQ LQWURGXFHUHD DFHVWRU

YDULDELOHFXYDORULGHFDODWH


*
9H]L27 Q VRLX$,DFRE(FRQRPHWULHVWXGLLGHFD]OLWR$6(%XFXUHWL
+
QHFRQRPLHIHQRPHQHOHH[SOR]LYHSRWILFRQVLGHUDWHFDIHQRPHQHUDUH)HQRPHQHOHHFRQRPLFHVHPDQLIHVW GH

UHJXO FDIHQRPHQHVWDELOHLVWD LRQDUHSHWHUPHQVFXUWLXQHRULFKLDUSHWHUPHQPHGLX

197
  HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO UHFXUVLY HVWH PDL VLPSO  L PDL UDSLG  Q FD]XO

PRGHOHORUFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQHHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUQHFHVLW FDOFXOHODERULRDVHLDUIHQRPHQXOGH

FXPXODUH D HURULORU GH DSUR[LPDUH SRDWH V  SURYRDFH GLVWRUVLXQL VHPQLILFDWLYH DVXSUD UH]XOWDWHORU

RE LQXWH

6LPXODUHDLSURJQR]DPRGHOHORUFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH

0RGHOHOH FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH VH IRORVHVF vQ DFHOHDL VFRSXUL FD L PRGHOHOH XQLIDFWRULDOH VDX

PXOWLIDFWRULDOH Q YHGHUHD XWLOL] ULL DFHVWRU PRGHOH OD H[SOLFDUHD VLPXODUHD L SURJQR]D

IHQRPHQHORU HFRQRPLFH ILHFDUH HFXD LH D PRGHOXOXL  HYLGHQW FX H[FHS, LD HFXD LLORU GH LGHQWLWDWH

YDWUHEXLWHVWDW HFRQRPHWULFFDvQFD]XOXQXLPRGHOFXRVLQJXU HFXD LH 

$FHVW WLS GH PRGHOH VH XWLOL]HD]  FX SUHF GHUH OD IXQGDPHQWDUHD SODQXOXL GH DIDFHUL D XQHL

ILUPHVDXODIXQGDPHQWDUHDSROLWLFLORUPDFURHFRQRPLFHQDFHVWFD]SHQWUXYDULDELOHOHGHFRPDQG 

DGLF DFHOHIHQRPHQHFDUHSRWILVWDELOLWHFRQWURODWHVDXUHJODWHSULQGHFL]LLPDQDJHULDOHVDODULLOH

LPSR]LWHOH WD[HOH YDPDOH GREkQ]LOH SH WLSXUL GH FUHGLWH HWF  VH GHWHUPLQ  DFHOH YDORUL SRVLELOH

UH]XOWDWHvQXUPDXQHLDQDOL]HHFRQRPLFHVDXSUREDELOHGLQSXQFWGHYHGHUHVWDWLVWLFFDUHLQWURGXVH

vQ PRGHOXO FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH YRU JHQHUD LQWHUYDOHOH GH vQFUHGHUH DOH YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH

UHVSHFWLYVFHQDULLOHFHYRUUH]XOWDvQXUPDXQHLVDXXQRUGHFL]LLHFRQRPLFH

'H DVHPHQHD QX GH SX LQH RUL YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH VH HVWLPHD]  QX vQ XUPD UH]ROY ULL

PRGHOXOXL HFRQRPHWULF FL SULQ DQFKHWH VWDWLVWLFH DOH PDQDJHULORU SULYLQG YDORULOH SH FDUH OH

DQWLFLSHD]  SHQWUX IHQRPHQHOH HFRQRPLFH SH FDUH OH SRW LQIOXHQ D vQWUR P VXU  PDL PDUH VDX PDL

PLF  8Q H[HPSOX GH HQGRJHQL]DUH D YDULDELOHORU HIHFW vO SRDWH FRQVWLWXL DQFKHWD PDQDJHULORU

VRFLHW LORU GH GLVWULEX LH D SURGXVHORU SHWUROLHUH SULYLQG HYROX LD SUH XOXL DFHVWRUD SH XUP WRDUHOH

WUHLOXQLDVHOXQL3HED]DLQIRUPD LLORURE LQXWHVHVWDELOHVFSHFDOHVWDWLVWLF YDORULOHSUREDELOH

LULVFXULOHFDDFHVWHSUH XULV GHS HDVF VDXV FRERDUHVXEDQXPLWHYDORULOLPLW 6HFRQVLGHU F 

vQ DQXPLWH GRPHQLL  FDUH QX SRW IL SUHFL]DWH GHFkW vQ XUPD XQRU H[SHULPHQW UL ULJXURDVH 

HVWLPDUHD YDORULORU SUREDELOH DOH XQRU YDULDELOH HQGRJHQH SH ED]D HQGRJHQL] ULL ORU SULQ DQFKHWH

VWDWLVWLFHFRQGXFHODHURULPDLPLFLGHFkWFHOHHVWLPDWHFXDMXWRUXOXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULF

([HPSOXGHDSOLFDUHDPRGHOXOXLFXHFXD LLVLPXOWDQH0RGHOXOGLQDPLFDOOXL.H\QHV

'LQDPLFD SULQFLSDOLORU LQGLFDWRUL PDFURHFRQRPLFL H[SULPD L vQ PLOG OHL SUH XUL

FRPSDUDELOHvQ5RPkQLDvQSHULRDGDVHSUH]LQW vQWDEHOXOXUP WRU

  7DEHOXO   PLOGOHLSUHWXULFRPS 

 &RQVXPXO  &RQVXPXO  

$QL ILQDODO ,QYHVWL LL ILQDODO 3,% 90 132 

SRSXOD LHL  , .  DGPSXEOLFH  9 / 

 & -   * . 

      

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     


4
9H]L&DSLWROHOH,,,L,9

198
      

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

7RWDO     

 6  VH FDUDFWHUL]H]H GH]YROWDUHD HFRQRPLF  D 5RPkQLHL vQ SHULRDGD  FX DMXWRUXO

XQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH

 5H]ROYDUH

 3HED]DGDWHORUGLQWDEHOXOGHPDLVXVGH]YROWDUHDHFRQRPLF D5RPkQLHLvQSHULRDGD

VHSRDWHIDFHFXDMXWRUXOXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOHDF UXLIRUP VWUXFWXUDO 

HVWH

&5 = D7 + D 8 95 + X8 

   ,
5 = E7 + E8 9 5 + E9 9 5 6 8 + X9    

95 = &5 + ,5 + *5  

 0RGHOXOGHPDLVXVSUH]LQW FkWHYDSDUWLFXODULW LFXPDUIL

 SULPDHFXD LHGHVFULHRUHOD LHGHFRPSRUWDPHQWDFRQVXPDWRULORU

  HFXD LD  UHSUH]LQW  WRW R UHOD LH GH FRPSRUWDPHQW GHVFULLQG SROLWLFD LQYHVWL LRQDO 

SUDFWLFDW  vQ SHULRDGD  GDU DYkQG XQ FDUDFWHU GLQDPLF GDWRULW  LQFOXGHULL YDULDELOHORU

GHFDODWHFDUHLPSULP DFHDVW WU V WXU LPRGHOXOXLFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH

 HFXD LDUHSUH]LQW RUHOD LHGHLGHQWLWDWHHFRQRPLF 

 0RGHOXO FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH FRQ LQH FLQFL YDULDELOH GLQWUH FDUH WUHL YDULDELOH VXQW

HQGRJHQH ( & :;
 , :<
9: ) LGRX YDULDELOHH[RJHQH ( * :=
9 : >3? ) 
 'LVFX LD HFRQRPHWULF  D PRGHOXOXL FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH UHOHY  F  PRGHOXO HVWH

VXSUDLGHQWLILFDWGHRDUHFH

  vQ HFXD LD  QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU DEVHQWH HVWH HJDO FX  QXP U VXSHULRU QXP UXOXL GH

YDULDELOHHQGRJHQHPLQXVXQXFHHDFHvQVHDPQ F HFXD LDHVWHVXSUDLGHQWLILFDW 

  FKLDU GDF  HFXD LD  HVWH FRUHFW LGHQWLILFDW  ( =  - )  PRGHOXO HVWH VXSUDLGHQWLILFDW

GDWRULW HFXD LHL

 $YkQG DFHDVW  SDUWLFXODULWDWH HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL VH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO

0&003DSOLFDW vQGRX ID]H

 )D]D,9DULDELOD 9 : FDUHHVWHHQGRJHQ vQHFXD LDGDUH[RJHQ vQHFXD LLOHLVH

YDUHJUHVDvQIXQF LHGHYDULDELOHOHH[RJHQH 9 : >3? L * : UH]XOWkQGHFXD LD

   9 @ = a + b 9 @ ACB + * @ +Z @ 

 6H DSOLF  0&003 vQ YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL SDUDPHWULORU a  b   L D FDOFXO ULL YDORULORU

$
HVWLPDWHDOHYDULDELOHL 9 D 
GIH G
   ) a

b (
 = PLQ
E 9 ) ( K -a

- b 9 K F J *K
- ) 
K G

199
 NIO
( )(- ) =  
P P P
) (a )=

- b *
    P
L 9 -a 9 M Q -
N
TIU TIU TIU
W W W
    (Q - )a

+ b R 9
W S V W
+ R * = W
R 9 
T T T
ZI[
( )=  ]
X (9 )(-9 Y \
] ] ] ]
  

) b

- b
-a 9 Y *
- )= 
Z \
ZI[ ZI[ ZI[ ZI[
]
]Z ] ] ] ]
    ]
a X 9 Y + b]
X 9 Y ]
+ X *9 Y = ]
X 9 9 Y 
Z \ Z \ Z \ Z \
I` a
) (
)=  c ( )(- *
c c c c
   ^ 9
- b
-a 9 _ *
- )= 
` b
f'g f'g f'g f'g
f

    a d *i + b
d *i 9 i e h + d *i =
d 9 i *i 
i f i f i f i f

GHXQGHUH]XOW VLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLQRUPDOH

l'm l'm l'm

(Q - )a
+ b 9 o k n * o
+ = 9 o
o j l o j l o j l
l'm l'm l'm l'm

l
* o 9
   a l 9
o k n + b 9 o k n + o k n = 9 o 9 o k n 
o j o j l o j l o j l
l'm 'l m l'm l'm

l
* o * o
a + b * o 9 o k n + = 9 o * o
o j l o j l o j l o j l

 a
+ b =  
+ 



+  b =   
    a +  

 a +   b +   =  

 YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQHOH

 $ $
3HQWUX HVWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU a  b  L  LDYDORULORUOXL 9 p VDXWLOL]DWSURJUDPXO(;&(/ $ $
UH]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHILLQGXUP WRDUHOH

  =  
a

  b =  

= - 

7DEHOXO
z
9q  9r s3t  *u  9 vxwy  * {|
9 {x}~  9 {|
9 {x  *  9
*  $
9 

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

200
         

        

        

        

        

        

 9 =   +   9 -  *  YH]LWDEHOXOFRORDQD

 )D]D ,, 'HRDUHFH YDULDELOD HQGRJHQ  9  YH]L HFXD LD  HVWH YDULDELO  H[RJHQ  vQ

(
HFXD LLOHLvQDFHVWHHFXD LLHDVHYDLQWURGXFHFXYDORULOHHVWLPDWHvQID]D, 9
$ ) 
 (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU HFXD LLORU  L  VH YD IDFH FX DMXWRUXO 0&003 DSOLFDWH

ILHF UHLHFXD LL

   & = D + D 9 + X   

   , = E + E 9 + E 9 +X  

 (VWLPDWRULLHFXD LHL D L D UH]XOW vQXUPDDSOLF ULL0&003

$ $
I
(& )

) (D )=
9
   D PLQ -D -D 

I I

   ) (D
) =  (Q - )D

+D 9
=
& 

I I I

   ) (D
)= D
9

+D 9
& 9
= 

 &DOFXOHOHVDXHIHFWXDWFXDMXWRUXOSURJUDPXOXL(;&(/UH]XOWkQGXUP WRDUHOHYDORUL

& =D + D 9 =   +   9  5 =   

(V )  ( V x )  ( )  ()  G =  

       V =  

 3URFHGkQG vQ PRG DQDORJ FX HFXD LD  FDOFXOHOH VDX HIHFWXDW WRW FX DMXWRUXO SURJUDPXOXL

(;&(/UH]XOWkQGXUP WRDUHOHYDORUL

 , = E + E9 + E 9 = -  +  9 - 9  5 =   

  ( V ) ( V )  ( V )  ( )  ()  ( )   G =  

          V =   

 9HULILFDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL HVWLPDWRULORU L D PRGHOXOXL VH YD IDFH SHQWUX ILHFDUH HFXD LH vQ

SDUWH

 HFXD LD

 (VWLPDWRULL D  D  VXQW VHPQLILFDWLY GLIHUL L GH ]HUR FX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a =  
$ $
GDF VHYHULILF XUP WRDUHOHUHOD LL

D  
   >W =  > W
=   
V 

D  
   = =  < W =   

V  

 QXUPDHIHFWX ULLFDOFXOHORUGHPDLVXVVHFRQVWDW IDSWXOF GRDU D $ HVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULW

GH]HURFXXQSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LH a =   D ILLQGQHVHPQLILFDWLY $

Q YHGHUHD YHULILF ULL LSRWH]HL GH LQGHSHQGHQ  D HURULORU VH DSOLF  WHVWXO 'XUELQ  :DWVRQ

FDUHFRQVW vQFDOFXODUHDYDULDELOHL G FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

201
 '
(X

-X )

   G = ' =   

X

 'LQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL 'XUELQ  :DWVRQ vQ IXQF LH GH XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a =   GH

QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU H[SOLFDWLYH N =   L GH QXP UXO GH REVHUYD LL Q =   VH SUHLDX YDORULOH

WHRUHWLFH G =   L G =   &RPSDUkQG YDORDUHD FDOFXODW  D YDULDELOHL G  FX FHOH GRX  YDORUL

WHRUHWLFH VH FRQVWDW  F   < G =   < G =   LQWHUYDO FH FRUHVSXQGH VLWXD LHL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH

SR]LWLY 

9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLUDSRUWXOXLGHFRUHOD LH

5
   ) = (Q - N - ) ) ( )

- 5

   )
=   

 
   ) =  =  < )
=   
 -  

 'HFLUDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LHHVWHQHVHPQLILFDWLYSHQWUXXQSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LH a =  

 Q XUPD DSOLF ULL WHVWHORU W ) L G VH FRQVWDW  F  PRGHOXO UHGDW GH HFXD LD  HVWH

QHVHPQLILFDWLYLQYDOLG

 HFXD LD

 9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLHVWLPDWRULORU

E -  
>W      =   > W =   


V 



E  
   >W
  =  > W =   


V  


E - 
   >W
  =  > W =   


V  

$ $
 (VWLPDWRULL E  E   L E  VXQW VHPQLILFDWLY GLIHUL L GH ]HUR FX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH

a =  

Q YHGHUHD YHULILF ULL LSRWH]HL GH LQGHSHQGHQ  D HURULORU VH DSOLF  WHVWXO 'XUELQ  :DWVRQ

FDUHFRQVW vQFDOFXODUHDYDULDELOHL G FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

 
(X
  
-X   )
   
   G =  =   

X  
  

 'LQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL 'XUELQ  :DWVRQ vQ IXQF LH GH XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a =   GH

QXP UXO YDULDELOHORU H[SOLFDWLYH N =   L GH QXP UXO GH REVHUYD LL Q =   VH SUHLDX YDORULOH

WHRUHWLFH G  =   L G  =   &RPSDUkQG YDORDUHD FDOFXODW  D YDULDELOHL G  FX FHOH GRX  YDORUL

WHRUHWLFH VH FRQVWDW  F   < G =   < G  =   LQWHUYDO FH FRUHVSXQGH VLWXD LHL GH DXWRFRUHOD LH

SR]LWLY 

 9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLUDSRUWXOXLGHFRUHOD LH


Q - N - 5
   )! =  )"  (     )

N - 5

   )' +
')( * & * #%$ =  

202
    ,%-
   )3 = =   > ) / 2
/)0 1 . 1 =  
  -  

 5DSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LHHVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULWGH]HURFXXQSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LH a =  

 'HVFULHUHD HFRQRPLHL 5RPkQLHL vQ SHULRDGD  VH SRDWH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO

PXOWLSOLFDWRULORUFXHIHFWGLUHFW

 0XOWLSOLFDWRULL FX HIHFW GLUHFW VDX PXOWLSOLFDWRULL VWUXFWXUDOL VXQW UHSUH]HQWD L GH SDUDPHWULL

PRGHOXOXLVXEIRUP VWUXFWXUDO 

  D 4 UDWDPDUJLQDO DFRQVXPXOXLFDUHDUDW F vQSHULRDGDODRFUHWHUHFXXQ

PLOLDUGGHOHLD3,%XOXLFRQVXPXOILQDODOSRSXOD LHLDFUHVFXWFXDSUR[LPDWLYPLOLDUGHOHL

  E5   UDWD PDUJLQDO  D LQYHVWL LLORU FDUH H[SULP  IDSWXO F  vQ SHULRDGD 

LQYHVWL LLOHDXFUHVFXWFXPLOLDUGHOHLODRFUHWHUHFXXQPLOLDUGGHOHLD3,%XOXL

  E6 UHOHY IDSWXOF 3,%XOUHDOL]DWvQDQXODQWHULRUDDYXWXQHIHFWQHJDWLYDVXSUDFUHWHULL

LQYHVWL LLORU DFHVWHD VF ]kQG FX DSUR[LPDWLY  PLOLDUGH OHL OD R FUHWHUH FX XQ PLOLDUG GH OHL D

3,%XOXLGLQDQXODQWHULRU

%,%/,2*5$),(

*LUDXG5&KDL[1eFRQRPpWULH38)3DULV

*UHHQH+:(FRQRPHWULF$QDO\VLV0DFPLOODQ3XEOLVKLQJ&RPSDQ\1HZ<RUN
798
*XMDUDWL51%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN
798
-RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGV HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

/DEURXVVH&,QWURGXFWLRQDOpFRQRPpWULH'XQRG3DULV
:8
 3LQG\FN 5 6 5XELQIHOG ' 6  (FRQRPHWULF 0RGHOV DQG (FRQRPLF )RUHFDVWV   HG 0F

*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

203
 &DSLWROXO;,

$SOLFD LLHFRQRPHWULFHODQLYHOGHILUP 


)XQGDPHQWDUHDHFRQRPHWULF DGHFL]LHLGHDOHJHUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQW

GHSURGXF LHSHED]DFRVWXOXLPLQLPGHIRORVLQ 

2 VRFLHWDWH FRPHUFLDO  DUH SRVLELOLWDWHD GH D DOHJH vQWUH SDWUX HFKLSDPHQWH GH SURGXF LH ( 

(
( ( vQYHGHUHDUHDOL] ULLSURGXF LHLSURSXVHvQFDGUXOVWUDWHJLHLSHWHUPHQOXQJ

3UH XULOH GH DFKL]L LH vQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL SUHYL]LELOH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH GXUDWHL GH

IXQF LRQDUHDILHF UXLHFKLSDPHQWVXQWSUH]HQWDWHvQWDEHOXOXUP WRU

7DEHOXOPLLOHL

$QXO     

 &KHOWXLHOL &  &
 &  &  & 

(FKLSDPHQWH

(      

(
     

(      

(      

1RW 6HFRQVLGHU F FHOHSDWUXHFKLSDPHQWHDXDFHODLUDQGDPHQWWHKQLF

6  VH IDF  GLVFX LD HFRQRPLF  D SUREOHPHL V  VH IRUPXOH]H FULWHULXO GH DOHJHUH D FHOXL PDL

HILFLHQWHFKLSDPHQWLV VHDSOLFHvQYHGHUHDUH]ROY ULLSUREOHPHL

5H]ROYDUH

D'LVFX LDHFRQRPLF DSUREOHPHL

2 VRFLHWDWH FRPHUFLDO  DUH GH UHJXO  SRVLELOLWDWHD GH D DOHJH vQWUH PDL PXOWH HFKLSDPHQWH

GHSURGXF LH(  ( (  (  O =  N N QXP UXOHFKLSDPHQWHORUH[LVWHQWHSHSLD SHQWUXD

L UHDOL]D SURGXF LD VWDELOLW  vQ FDGUXO XQHL VWUDWHJLL SH WHUPHQ OXQJ 3H ED]D GRFXPHQWD LHL WHKQLFR

HFRQRPLFH VRFLHWDWHD FXQRDWH SUH XULOH GH FXPS UDUH DOH DFHVWRU HFKLSDPHQWH 3   3 3  3 

SUHFXPLFKHOWXLHOLOHGHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LHSUHYL]LELOHSHQWUXIXQF LRQDUHDDFHVWRUHFKLSDPHQWH

&  & & &

 W =  Q  Q QXP UXODQLORUGHIRORVLQ SHQWUXILHFDUHHFKLSDPHQW

3H ED]D DFHVWRU LQIRUPD LL VRFLHWDWHD FRPHUFLDO  WUHEXLH V  GHFLG  FH HFKLSDPHQWH SUHIHU 

(YLGHQWF GHSHSR]L LDWHRULHLHFRQRPLFHFULWHULXOGHDOHJHUHvOYDUHSUH]HQWDPLQLPXPXOFRVWXOXL

DQXDOGHIRORVLQ  PLQ \  XQGH \  UHSUH]LQW FRVWXOPHGLXDQXDOGHIRORVLQ DXQXLHFKLSDPHQWO


$FHDVW DOHJHUHVHSRDWHIDFHvQPDLPXOWHVLWXD LLFXPDUIL

 &KHOWXLHOLOH GH DFKL]L LH vQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL VXQW FRQVWDQWH SH vQWUHDJD SHULRDG  GH

WLPS

&KHOWXLHOLOHGHDFKL]L LHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLDOHHFKLSDPHQWXOXLVHPRGLILF GHODXQDQ

ODDOWXOSHWRDW GXUDWDGHH[SORDWDUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXL

 &KHOWXLHOLOH WRWDOH GH H[SORDWDUH D XQXL HFKLSDPHQW <   FkW L FRVWXO PHGLX DQXDO GH

H[SORDWDUH SRW IL H[SULPDWH vQ YDORULOH QRPLQDOH DOH FKHOWXLHOLORU GH DFKL]L LH vQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL

DOHHFKLSDPHQWHORU

204
  &KHOWXLHOLOH WRWDOH GH H[SORDWDUH D XQXL HFKLSDPHQW <   FkW L FRVWXO PHGLX DQXDO SRW IL

H[SULPDWH vQ YDORULOH DFWXDOL]DWH DOH FKHOWXLHOLORU GH DFKL]L LH vQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL DOH

HFKLSDPHQWHORU

'LVFX LD HFRQRPHWULF  D FD]XULORU GH PDL VXV VH IDFH SH ED]D LSRWH]HL F  XQ HFKLSDPHQW

RGDW  DOHV YD IL IRORVLW SH WRDW  GXUDWD UHDOL] ULL SURGXF LHL VRFLHW LL IDSW FH SUHVXSXQH F 

HFKLSDPHQWXOYDILvQORFXLWGHURUL L=  U U QXP UXOGHvQORFXLULDOHHFKLSDPHQWHORU

&D]XOFKHOWXLHOLGHDFKL]L LHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LHFRQVWDQWHODYDORDUHDQRPLQDO 

 FRVWXO JOREDO GH H[SORDWDUH SH Q SHULRDGH GH WLPS DO XWLOL] ULL XQXL HFKLSDPHQW L SHQWUX U

vQORFXLULHVWHXUP WRUXO

 < 3&  & &

  3&  & &
 3&  & &


<  U3&         

XQGH W =  Q  Q QXP UXODQLORUGHIRORVLQ DXQXLHFKLSDPHQW

 L =  U  U QXP UXOGHvQORFXLULDOHHFKLSDPHQWHORU

FRVWXOPHGLXDQXDOGHH[SORDWDUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQWSRUQLQGGHODUHOD LDYDIL

<  U (3 +&   ) 3 +&  

 \  = = =   
Q U Q U Q

'HFL SH ED]D UHOD LHL  FDOFXODW  SHQWUX ILHFDUH HFKLSDPHQW vQ SDUWH SUHIHULQ D

VRFLHW LLVHYDvQGUHSWDF WUHDFHOHFKLSDPHQWF UXLDvLFRUHVSXQGH PLQ \  




&D]XOFKHOWXLHOLGHDFKL]L LHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLFRQVWDQWHODYDORDUHDDFWXDOL]DW 

3H ED]D UHOD LLORU  L  VH GHGXFH F  SUH XO PHGLX DQXDO GH H[SORDWDUH VH

FDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

 3 +& 
\  =         
Q ( + D)

XQGHD UDWDGREkQ]LL

&D]XOFKHOWXLHOLGHDFKL]L LHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLFRQVWDQWHODYDORDUHDQRPLQDO 

QDFHVWFD]FRVWXOJOREDOGHH[SORDWDUHGHYLQH

< 3  &  &  & 

3 & & &
3 &  &  & 

 

= " 3 + " & 
< !         
  

 3HED]DUHOD LHLVHGHGXFHH[SUHVLDFRVWXOXLPLQLPDQXDOGHH[SORDWDUH

$ &

 = ) 3 + ) & ' 
\ ( % %   
Q U % # ' #

&D]XOFKHOWXLHOLGHDFKL]L LRQDUHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLYDULDELOHODYDORULDFWXDOL]DWH

3RUQLQGGHODUHOD LLOHLFRVWXOPHGLXDQXDOGHH[SORDWDUHSHED]DF UXLDVH

YDGHFLGHDOHJHUHDHFKLSDPHQWHORUFHXUPHD] DILDFKL]L LRQDWHGHYLQH

. 0
 
 \ 1 = 3/ + & -
/ - * ,  
Q U

/ + , - + ,
( + D )

'HUH LQXW

 5HOD LLOH GH PDL VXV VXQW YDODELOH GDF  L QXPDL GDF  QXP UXO GH DQL GH IRORVLUH D

HFKLSDPHQWHORU HVWH FRQVWDQW L HJDO FX Q  W =  Q  SHQWUX WRDWH FHOH N  O =  N  HFKLSDPHQWH

H[LVWHQWH SH SLD  Q FD] FRQWUDU FRVWXO PHGLX DQXDO VH YD FDOFXOD SHQWUX WRDWH HFKLSDPHQWHOH SH

ED]DGXUDWHLFHOHLPDLPDULGHIRORVLUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQW

205
  'H DVHPHQHD UHOD LLOH VXQW YDODELOH QXPDL GDF  FHOH N HFKLSDPHQWH DX DFHODL UDQGDPHQW

WHKQLF Q FD]XO vQ FDUH FHOH N HFKLSDPHQWH DX UDQGDPHQWH WHKQLFH GLIHULWH UHOD LLOH GH PDL VXV

WUHEXLH FRUHFWDWH FX SURGXF LD UHDOL]DW  GH ILHFDUH HFKLSDPHQW vQ SDUWH &X DOWH FXYLQWH QX VH PDL

OXFUHD]  FX FKHOWXLHOLOH GH DFKL]L LRQDUH vQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL vQ P ULPL DEVROXWH FL FX YDORULOH

DFHVWRUD H[SULPDWH vQ P ULPL GHULYDWH UHVSHFWLY SULQ UDSRUWDUHD FKHOWXLHOLORU GH DFKL]L LRQDUH

vQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLODUDQGDPHQWXOWHKQLFDOILHF UXLHFKLSDPHQW

E $OHJHUHD FHOXL PDL HILFLHQW HFKLSDPHQW SH ED]D YDORULORU QRPLQDOH DOH FRVWXULORU GH

H[SORDWDUH

QFD]XODSOLFD LHLSUDFWLFHGDF QXVH LQHFRQWGHUDWDGREkQ]LLWUHEXLHFDOFXODWSUH XODQXDO

GH H[SORDWDUH SHQWUX ILHFDUH GLQWUH HFKLSDPHQWH GXS  FDUH YD IL DOHV DFHO HFKLSDPHQW FDUH DUH FHO

PDLPLFFRVWDQXDOGHIRORVLQ $VWIHO

 
\ 3 2 = ( +  ) = =  PLLOHLDQ
 

 
\ 5 4 = ( +  +  ) = =   PLLOHLDQ
 

 
\ 5 6 = ( +  +  +  ) = =  PLLOHLDQ
 

 
\ 5 7 = ( +  +  +  ) = =  PLLOHLDQ
 

QDFHDVW VLWXD LHHVWHQHFHVDUV ILHDFKL]L LRQDWHFKLSDPHQWXO( 8 FDUHDUHFHOPDLPLFFRVW

DQXDOGHH[SORDWDUHPLLOHLDQGDUDFHDVW GHFL]LHQXHVWHFRUHFW GHRDUHFHHFKLSDPHQWHOH

QX DX R GXUDW  GH IXQF LRQDUH XQLIRUP  ( 9 U     (: U   (8 U;  (< U= 'HFLFRVWXO

PLQLP DQXDO GH H[SORDWDUH YD IL FDOFXODW SHQWUX WRDWH HFKLSDPHQWHOH vQ IXQF LH GH GXUDWD GH

IXQF LRQDUHPD[LP U DQL

 
\ ? > = ( +  +  +  +  ) = =  PLLOHLDQ
 

 
\ ? @ = ( +  +  +  +  ) = =  PLLOHLDQ
 

 
\ ? = ( +  +  +  +  ) = =  PLLOHLDQ
 

 
\ B A = ( +  +  +  +  ) = =  PLLOHLDQ
 

Q FRQFOX]LH GHFL]LD FRUHFW  HVWH DFHHD GH D DFKL]L LRQD HFKLSDPHQWXO (<  GHRDUHFH SH R

SHULRDG GHDQLDFHVWDDUHFHOPDLPLFFRVWGHDQXDOGHIRORVLQ PLLOHLDQ

F $OHJHUHD FHOXL PDL HILFLHQW HFKLSDPHQW SH ED]D YDORULORU DFWXDOL]DWH DOH FRVWXULORU GH

H[SORDWDUH

'DF  VH LQH VHDPD GH YDORDUHD DFWXDOL]DW  D FRVWXOXL GHUDWDGREkQ]LLLGHIDSWXOF GXUDWD

GH IXQF LRQDUH QX HVWH XQLIRUP  vQ YHGHUHD FDOFXO ULL FRVWXOXL DQXDO GH IRORVLQ  YD IL XWLOL]DW 

XUP WRDUHDUHOD LH

 3 +& FE
\ G = E D C      
Q ( + D)

XQGHD UDWDGREkQ]LL

Q FD]XO vQ FDUH UDWD GREkQ]LL HVWH FRQVWDQW  L HJDO  FX   FRVWXO PLQLP DQXDO GH

IRORVLQ YDILFDOFXODWDVWIHO

    

H
\ M L =  + K + J + I + =  PLLOHLDQ

    

206
     N
\ S R =  + Q + P + O + =   PLLOHLDQ

    

    

T
\ Y X =  + W + V + U + =  PLLOHLDQ

    

    T

\ Y Z =  + W + V + U + =  PLLOHLDQ

    

5H]XOWDWHOH GH PDL VXV FRQGXF OD XUP WRDUHD FRQFOX]LH  FRVWXO PLQLP DQXDO GH IRORVLQ 

LQkQG FRQW GH YDORULOH DFWXDOL]DWH DOH FRVWXULORU L GH UDWD GREkQ]LL D IRVW RE LQXW vQ FD]XO

HFKLSDPHQWXOXL(: 

$QDOL]DHFRQRPHWULF DGHFL]LHLGHvQORFXLUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQWGH

SURGXF LHvQWURVRFLHWDWHFRPHUFLDO 

QYHGHUHDUHDOL] ULLSURGXF LHLXQHLVRFLHW LFRPHUFLDOHDFHDVWDDFKL]L LRQHD] HFKLSDPHQWH

GH SURGXF LH OH XWLOL]HD]  L OD XQ PRPHQW GDW DFHVWHD WUHEXLH vQORFXLWH 0RPHQWXO vQORFXLULL VH

IDFHvQIXQF LHGHFKHOWXLHOLOHSHFDUHOHQHFHVLW XWLOL]DUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQW

$VWIHOYDORDUHDQRPLQDO XQXLHFKLSDPHQW(FDUHHVWHFXPS UDWFXXQSUH 3 [ SHP VXU FH

HVWHIRORVLWVFDGHvQWLPSFHFKHOWXLHOLOHGHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLFUHVF1RWkQGFX

3[ SUH XOGHDFKL]L LHDOHFKLSDPHQWXOXL

IW  IXQF LD GHYDORUL] ULL vQ WLPS D HFKLSDPHQWXOXL FDUH HVWH GH UHJXO  R IXQF LH PRQRWRQ

GHVFUHVF WRDUHvQWLPS

3 [ IW YDORDUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLODUHYkQ]DUHDVDXODOLFKLGDUHDDFHVWXLD

JW  IXQF LD FKHOWXLHOLORU FXPXODWH SULYLQG vQWUH LQHUHD L UHSDUDUHD  HFKLSDPHQWXOXL SH

GXUDWDGHIRORVLUHW W =  Q  XQGHQ QXP UXOGHSHULRDGHDQLGHIRORVLUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLJW

UHSUH]LQW RIXQF LHPRQRWRQFUHVF WRDUHvQWLPS

6HGHGXFHDVWIHOF H[SUHVLDFKHOWXLHOLORUJOREDOHGHDFKL]L LRQDUHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLHVWH

HJDO FX

<\ 3 [ 3 [ IWJW     

$OHJHUHD PRPHQWXOXL GH vQORFXLUH D HFKLSDPHQWXOXL VH IDFH SH ED]D FULWHULXOXL PLQ \ ] 
]

XQGH \ ^  FRVWXOPHGLXDQXDOGHH[SORDWDUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQWSHRSHULRDG GHQDQL

3H ED]D UHOD LHL  YDORDUHD FRVWXOXL PHGLX DQXDO GH H[SORDWDUH UH]XOW  GLQ UHOD LD



< _ 3` - 3` I (W ) + J (W )
\ _ = = 
W W    

3UREOHPD FRQVW  GHFL vQ D GHWHUPLQD YDORDUHD PLQLP  D FRVWXOXL PHGLX DQXDO GH H[SORDWDUH

\ ^ SHED]DUHOD LHLFHHDFHSUHVXSXQHFDOFXOXOGHULYDWHL \ ^ LDQXODUHDDFHVWHLD

W (< b ) -< b
  \ b  = a =  
W

  \ d  = W (- 3c I (W )+ J (W ) ) - (3c - 3c I (W ) + J (W )) =  

 \ f  = 3e W +J W 
 IW  W  3e +3e  IW  JW = 

 \ h  = 3g  +I W
 W  IW +J W 
 W  JW =   

'HRDUHFHvQSUDFWLF 3 [   IWLJWVXQWH[SULPDWHvQYDORULQXPHULFHGHWHUPLQDUHDFRVWXOXL

PHGLX DQXDO GH H[SORDWDUH VH SRDWH IDFH GLUHFW ILH SULQ FDOFXOH QXPHULFH ILH SULQ UHSUH]HQWDUH

JUDILF I U DUHFXUJHODGHULYDWDFRVWXOXLPHGLXDQXDO

207
 9DILDVWIHOVXILFLHQWDVHFDOFXODIXQF LD

< _ 3` - 3` I (W ) + J (W )
 \ _ = = 
W W

LGHDGHWHUPLQDSULQFDOFXOHQXPHULFHVDXSHFDOHJUDILF SHQWUXFDUHYDORDUHDGXUDWHLGHIRORVLUHW

VHRE LQHFHOPDLPLFFRVWPHGLXDQXDOGHH[SORDWDUH

'HL UH]ROYDUHD SUREOHPHL SH ED]D FDOFXOHORU QXPHULFH VDX D UHSUH]HQW ULL JUDILFH HVWH XRU

GH UHDOL]DW WRWXL GLVFX LD HFRQRPHWULF  D FD]XULORU SRVLELOH HVWH LQWHUHVDQW  GHRDUHFH SHUPLWH

LGHQWLILFDUHDVROX LLORURSWLPHDOHDFHVWRUD

WLLQG F  IW HVWH R IXQF LH PRQRWRQ GHVFUHVF WRDUH D YDORULL GH SLD  D HFKLSDPHQWHORU LDU

JW HVWH R IXQF LH PRQRWRQ  VDX PRQRWRQ FUHVF WRDUH vQ WLPS DFHVWH GRX  IXQF LL SRW IL VSHFLILFDWH

FXDMXWRUXOXUP WRDUHORUIXQF LLPDWHPDWLFH

D - E W  IXQFWLH OLQLDU GHVFUHVF WRDUH

I (W ) = i l j
H  IXQFWLH H[S RQHQWLDO GHVFUHVF WRDUH

N  IXQFWLH PRQRWRQ vQ WLPS 

J (W ) = N W  IXQFWLH OLQLDU FH WUHFH SULQ RULJLQH

( )
k j
N H -   IXQFWLH H[S RQHQWLDO FUHVF WRDUH FH WUHFH SULQ RULJLQH

3ULQFRPELQDUHDWLSXULORUGHIXQF LLFXDMXWRUXOF URUDSRWILVSHFLILFDWHIWLJWYRUUH]XOWD

SDWUXFD]XULSULYLQGDOHJHUHDPRPHQWXOXLRSWLPGHOLFKLGDUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQW

&D]XO,IW IXQF LHOLQLDU GHVFUHVF WRDUHLDUJW IXQF LH

OLQLDU FUHVF WRDUH

2 VRFLHWDWH FRPHUFLDO  VD GHFLV V  DFKL]L LRQH]H XQ HFKLSDPHQW GH SURGXF LH DO F UXL SUH 

HVWH3 [  PLOOHL

3HED]DGRFXPHQWD LHLWHKQLFRHFRQRPLFHVHFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHLQIRUPD LL

D(YROX LDvQWLPSDYDORULLHFKLSDPHQWXOXLGHSURGXF LH

'XS SULPXODQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOGRLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOWUHLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOSDWUXOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOFLQFLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

E(YROX LDvQWLPSDFKHOWXLHOLORUGHLQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLGHSURGXF LH

'XS SULPXODQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOGRLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOWUHLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOSDWUXOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOFLQFLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DODVHOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

3HED]DLQIRUPD LLORUGHPDLVXVV VHHVWLPH]HWLPSXORSWLPGHvQORFXLUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXL

5H]ROYDUH

QYHGHUHDGHWHUPLQ ULLHFXD LHLFRVWXOXLDQXDOGHH[SORDWDUHYH]LUHOD LDYRUWUHEXL

LGHQWLILFDWH FHOH GRX  IXQF LL IW  IXQF LD HYROX LHL vQ WLPS D YDORULL HFKLSDPHQWXOXL L JW 

IXQF LDHYROX LHLvQWLPSDFKHOWXLHOLORUGHLQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLDHFKLSDPHQWXOXL

208
 ,GHQWLILFDUHD PDWHPDWLF  D FHORU GRX  IXQF LL VH YD IDFH FX DMXWRUXO UHSUH]HQW ULL JUDILFH D

LQIRUPD LLORUUHIHULWRDUHODDFHVWHIXQF LLYH]L)LJXUDL)LJXUD

3   I  W




















     W 

J W













W
      

)LJXUD(YROX LDvQWLPSDYDORULLHFKLSDPHQWXOXLGHSURGXF LH

)LJXUD  (YROX LD vQ WLPS D YDORULL FKHOWXLHOLORU GH LQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL D

HFKLSDPHQWXOXL

3H ED]D JUDILFXOXL GLQ )LJXUD  HYROX LD YDORULL HFKLSDPHQWXOXL YD SXWHD IL HVWLPDW  FX

DMXWRUXOXQHLIXQF LLOLQLDUHGHVFUHVF WRDUHGHIRUPDIW DE WX \ 

QYHGHUHDHVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORUVHYRUHIHFWXDXUP WRDUHOHFDOFXOH

 3 [  IW UHSUH]LQW  YDORDUHD HFKLSDPHQWXOXL OD UHYkQ]DUHD VDX OD OLFKLGDUHD DFHVWXLD GXS  W

DQLGHIRORVLQ 

IWUHSUH]LQW IXQF LDGHYDORUL] ULLvQWLPSDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLFDUHUH]XOW vQXUPDUDSRUW ULL

SUH XULORUGHUHYkQ]DUHODSUH XOGHDFKL]L LHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXL3 [ YH]LWDEHOXO

  7DEHOXO

$QL 9DORDUHDGHUHYkQ]DUHDHFKLSPLOOHL 3m I (W )

I (W ) = 
W 3 [ IW
3m

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

209
 

)RORVLQG PHWRGD SXQFWHORU HPSLULFH HVWLPDWRULL SDUDPHWULORU D L E YRU IL FDOFXOD L SH ED]D

SXQFWHORU1 n L1o QORFXLQGvQHFXD LDIXQF LHLIWFRRUGRQDWHOHFHORUGRX SXQFWHYD

UH]XOWDXUP WRUXOVLVWHPGHHFXD LL

SHQWUXW   D

SHQWUXW   DE E IW DE W  W

(YROX LD vQ WLPS D FKHOWXLHOLORU GH LQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL DD FXP UH]XOW  GLQ JUDILF YH]L

)LJXUD  SRDWH IL DSUR[LPDW  FX DMXWRUXO XQHL IXQF LL OLQLDUH FUHVF WRDUH FH WUHFH SULQ RULJLQH

UHVSHFWLYJW NW

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWUXOXLNVHYDIDFHSHED]DPHWRGHLSXQFWHORUHPSLULFH

)LHSXQFWXO1 n   N N JW NW W

Q FD]XO vQ FDUH VH GRUHWH R ULJRDUH PDL PDUH D FDOFXOHORU FHOH GRX  PRGHOH YRU WUHEXL

VXSXVH GLVFX LHLHFRQRPHWULFHDVHPQLILFD LHLDFHVWRUDYH]LGLVFX LDHFRQRPHWULF DPRGHOHORUGLQ

FDSLWROXO,,

5HYHQLQG OD H[SUHVLLOH DQDOLWLFH DOH FHORU GRX  IXQF LL IW L JW IXQF LD FRVWXOXL PHGLX

DQXDOGHH[SORDWDUHYDIL

< q 3p - 3p I (W ) + J (W ) 3p - 3p (D - E W )+ N W  -  ( -   W ) +  W

\ q = = = = = 
W W W W

PLOOHLDQ

DGLF DFHDVW IXQF LHQXGHSLQGHGHWLPSILLQGRIXQF LHPRQRWRQ LDUFRVWXOPHGLXDQXDOGH

IRORVLQ  YD IL SH WRDW  SHULRDGD GH XWLOL]DUH D HFKLSDPHQWXOXL HJDO FX  PLO OHLDQ YH]L )LJXUD





 \ 
W







W



)LJXUD

,QWHUSUHWDUHD HFRQRPLF  D XQXL DVHPHQHD FD] YH]L )LJXUD  HVWH XUP WRDUHD 

vQORFXLUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLUHVSHFWLYSRDWHILI FXW vQRULFHPRPHQWGHRDUHFHFRVWXOPHGLXDQXDOGH

H[SORDWDUHHVWHFRQVWDQWSHvQWUHDJDGXUDW GHIRORVLUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXL

*HQHUDOL]kQG SHQWUX FD]XO  IW  D  E  W L JW  N W UHVSHFWLY DWXQFL FkQG VH FRQVWDW  F 

IXQF LD GHYDORUL] ULL vQ WLPS D HFKLSDPHQWXOXL HVWH OLQLDU GHVFUHVF WRDUH LDU IXQF LD FKHOWXLHOLORU GH

LQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL HVWH OLQLDU FUHVF WRDUH QX VH PDL LPSXQH HVWLPDUHD HFRQRPHWULF  D DFHVWRU

IXQF LL GHRDUHFH GHFL]LD HVWH LPSOLFLW   vQORFXLUHD HFKLSDPHQWHORU SRDWH IL I FXW  vQ RULFH PRPHQW

vQWUXFkWFRVWXOPHGLXDQXDOGHIRORVLQ YDDYHDRYDORDUHFRQVWDQW LHJDO FX


s s s s
< r 3 - 3 I (W ) + J (W ) 3 - 3 ( - E W )+ N W s
\ r = = = = 3 E + N  "W =  Q 
W W W


210
 &D]XO,,IW IXQF LHOLQLDU GHVFUHVF WRDUHLDUJW IXQF LH

PRQRWRQ vQWLPS

2 VRFLHWDWH FRPHUFLDO  VD GHFLV V  DFKL]L LRQH]H XQ HFKLSDPHQW GH SURGXF LH DO F UXL SUH 

HVWH3 t  PLOOHL

3HED]DGRFXPHQWD LHLWHKQLFRHFRQRPLFHVHFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHLQIRUPD LL

D(YROX LDvQWLPSDYDORULLHFKLSDPHQWXOXLGHSURGXF LH

'XS SULPXODQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOGRLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOWUHLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOSDWUXOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOFLQFLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

E &KHOWXLHOLOH GH vQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL D HFKLSDPHQWXOXL GH SURGXF LH YRU IL HJDOH L

FRQVWDQWHvQWLPSSHWRDW GXUDWDGHXWLOL]DUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLFXPLOOHLDQ

3HED]DLQIRUPD LLORUGHPDLVXVV VHHVWLPH]HWLPSXORSWLPGHvQORFXLUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXL

5H]ROYDUH

'HRDUHFH GDWHOH UHIHULWRDUH OD YDORDUHD HFKLSDPHQWXOXL OD UHYkQ]DUHD VDX OD OLFKLGDUHD

DFHVWXLD VXQW LGHQWLFH FX FHOH GLQ DSOLFD LD   YH]L )LJXUD   L IXQF LD GHYDORUL] ULL vQ

WLPSDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLYDU PkQHQHVFKLPEDW IW  W

)XQF LD FKHOWXLHOLORU GH vQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL D HFKLSDPHQWXOXL HVWH R IXQF LH PRQRWRQ  GH

IRUPDJW PLOOHLDQYH]L)LJXUD

J W











      W 

)LJXUD

,QWURGXFkQG H[SUHVLLOH FHORU GRX  IXQF LL vQ HFXD LD FRVWXO PHGLX DQXDO GH IRORVLQ  YD

UH]XOWDF 
v v v v
< u 3 - 3 I (W ) + J (W ) 3 - 3 ( - E W )+ N v N 
\ u = = = = 3 E + =  + 
W W W W W
x N
&DOFXOkQG GHULYDWD FRVWXOXL PHGLX DQXDO GH H[SORDWDUH (\ y ) = - w  VH FRQVWDW  F  DFHDVWD
W

QXVHDQXOHD] GHFkWSHQWUXWLDUIXQF LDFRVWXOXLPHGLXHVWHRIXQF LHPRQRWRQGHVFUHVF WRDUH

vQWLPSWLQ]kQGVSUHPLQLPDWXQFLFkQGWYH]L)LJXUD

211




\
W

 


W



)LJXUD

6H GHGXFH XRU SH ED]D FDOFXOHORU L D JUDILFXOXL GLQ )LJXUD  F  vQ DFHVW FD] GHFL]LD

HFRQRPHWULF DILUPHLHVWHGHDPHQ LQHvQH[SORDWDUHFkWPDLPXOWWLPSSRVLELOHFKLSDPHQWXO

&D]XO,,,IW IXQF LHH[SRQHQ LDO GHVFUHVF WRDUHLDUJW IXQF LH

OLQLDU FUHVF WRDUH

2 VRFLHWDWH FRPHUFLDO  VD GHFLV V  DFKL]L LRQH]H XQ HFKLSDPHQW GH SURGXF LH DO F UXL SUH 

HVWH3 t  PLOOHL

3HED]DGRFXPHQWD LHLWHKQLFRHFRQRPLFHVHFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHLQIRUPD LL

D(YROX LDvQWLPSDYDORULLHFKLSDPHQWXOXLGHSURGXF LH

'XS SULPXODQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOGRLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOWUHLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOSDWUXOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOFLQFLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

E(YROX LDvQWLPSDFKHOWXLHOLORUGHLQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLGHSURGXF LH

'XS SULPXODQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOGRLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOWUHLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOSDWUXOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOFLQFLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DODVHOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

3HED]DLQIRUPD LLORUGHPDLVXVV VHHVWLPH]HWLPSXORSWLPGHvQORFXLUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXL

212
 5H]ROYDUH

,GHQWLILFDUHDIXQF LHLIWUHVSHFWLYHYROX LDvQWLPSDYDORULLHFKLSDPHQWXOXLGHSURGXF LHVH

YDIDFHSHED]DUHSUH]HQW ULLJUDILFHDDFHVWHLDYH]L)LJXUD

3  I  W





















W
     

)LJXUD

3HED]DJUDILFXOXLGHPDLVXVVHREVHUY F HYROX LDYDORULLHFKLSDPHQWXOXLSRDWHILHVWLPDW 

z|{}
FX DMXWRUXO XQHL IXQF LL H[SRQHQ LDOH GH IRUPD IW  H  IW UHSUH]HQWkQG IXQF LDGHYDORUL] ULLvQ

WLPSDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLFDUHUH]XOW vQXUPDUDSRUW ULLSUH XULORUGHUHYkQ]DUHODSUH XOGHDFKL]L LHD

HFKLSDPHQWXOXL3 t YH]L7DEHOXO

7DEHOXO
s
$QL 9DORDUHDGHUHYkQ]DUHDHFKLSPLOOHL 3 I (W )
I (W ) = s 
W 3 t IW
3

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWUXOXLEVHYDIDFHSHED]DPHWRGHLSXQFWHORUHPSLULFH

 ~ - (-   )
)LHSXQFWXO1 H =   E=OQ  E = =   



 I (W ) = H 

QWUXFkW GDWHOH UHIHULWRDUH OD HYROX LD vQ WLPS D FKHOWXLHOLORU GH vQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL D

HFKLSDPHQWXOXL VXQW LGHQWLFH FX FHOH GLQ DSOLFD LD   YH]L )LJXUD   L IXQF LD

FKHOWXLHOLORUGHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLYDU PkQHQHVFKLPEDW 

JW W

QDFHVWFD]IXQF LDFRVWXOXLPHGLXDQXDOGHH[SORDWDUHHVWH

( )

(W ) + J (W )
(3 )=
< 3 - 3 I    - H
\ = = = - 3 H + N W + 
W W W W 


213
 'HULYDWDDFHVWHLIXQF LLHVWH

[ (- 3 ) W ( )] ( )

(\ )
 
= - E H - 3 - 3 H = 3 E W H +H - 
W W

'HRDUHFH GHULYDWD IXQF HL FRVWXOXL PHGLX DQXDO GH H[SORDWDUH QX VH DQXOHD]  SHQWUX QLFL R

YDORDUHSR]LWLY DOXLWFRVWXOPHGLXDQXDOGHH[SORDWDUH \ HVWHRIXQF LHPRQRWRQGHVFUHVF WRDUH

FDUHLDYDORDUHDPLQLP SHQWUXW

 

 \ 








)LJXUD W


Q FRQFOX]LH SH ED]D FDOFXOHORU GH PDL VXV VDX D UHSUH]HQW ULL JUDILFH YH]L )LJXUD 

GHFL]LD HFRQRPLF  vQ DFHDVW  VLWXD LH HVWH DFHHDL FD L vQ FD]XO SUHFHGHQW UHVSHFWLY GH D PHQ LQH

vQH[SORDWDUHHFKLSDPHQWXOFkWPDLPXOWWLPSSRVLELO

&D]XO,9IW IXQF LHH[SRQHQ LDO GHVFUHVF WRDUHLDUJW 

IXQF LHH[SRQHQ LDO FUHVF WRDUH



2 VRFLHWDWH FRPHUFLDO  VD GHFLV V  DFKL]L LRQH]H XQ HFKLSDPHQW GH SURGXF LH DO F UXL SUH 

HVWH3  PLOOHL

3HED]DGRFXPHQWD LHLWHKQLFRHFRQRPLFHVHFXQRVFXUP WRDUHOHLQIRUPD LL

D(YROX LDvQWLPSDYDORULLHFKLSDPHQWXOXLGHSURGXF LH

'XS SULPXODQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOGRLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOWUHLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOSDWUXOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOFLQFLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

E(YROX LDvQWLPSDFKHOWXLHOLORUGHvQWUH LQHUHLUHSDUD LLDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLGHSURGXF LH

'XS SULPXODQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOGRLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOWUHLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOSDWUXOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DOFLQFLOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

'XS DODVHOHDDQGHIRORVLUH PLOOHL

3HED]DLQIRUPD LLORUGHPDLVXVV VHHVWLPH]HWLPSXORSWLPGHvQORFXLUHDHFKLSDPHQWXOXL

214
 5H]ROYDUH

'HRDUHFH GDWHOH UHIHULWRDUH OD YDORDUHD HFKLSDPHQWXOXL OD UHYkQ]DUHD VDX OD OLFKLGDUHD

DFHVWXLD VXQW LGHQWLFH FX FHOH GLQ DSOLFD LD   YH]L )LJXUD  L IXQF LD GHYDORUL] ULL vQ

WLPSDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLYDU PkQHQHVFKLPEDW  I (W ) = H 

,GHQWLILFDUHD IXQF LHL JW UHVSHFWLY HYROX LD vQ WLPS D FKHOWXLHOLORU GH vQWUH LQHUH L UHSDUD LL

D HFKLSDPHQWXOXL VH YD IDFH SH ED]D JUDILFXOXL HYROX LHL vQ WLPS D DFHVWRU FKHOWXLHOL YH]L )LJXUD



J W

















W
      

)LJXUD

(YROX LD vQ WLPS D FKHOWXLHOLORU GH UHSDUD LL DD FXP UH]XOW  GLQ JUDILF SRDWH IL DSUR[LPDW 

FXDMXWRUXOXQHLIXQF LLH[SRQHQ LDOHFHWUHFHSULQRULJLQHUHVSHFWLY


JW NH 

)RORVLQG PHWRGD SXQFWHORU HPSLULFH HVWLPDWRULL SDUDPHWULORU N L F YRU IL FDOFXOD L SH ED]D

SXQFWHORU 1  L 1  QORFXLQG vQ HFXD LD IXQF LHL JW FRRUGRQDWHOH FHORU GRX  SXQFWH

YDUH]XOWDXUP WRUXOVLVWHPGHHFXD LL

SHQWUXW  NH

SHQWUXW  NH 

PS U LQGDGRXDUHOD LHODSULPDUHOD LHYDUH]XOWDXUP WRUXOUDSRUW

 H -
= 
 H -

 [ -  
1RWkQGFXH  [YDUH]XOWD =  [ +  =  [ = =  
 [ -  


 
H F OQF  N = =   JW H 
 - 

3H ED]D H[SUHVLLORU FHORU GRX  IXQF LL IW L JW IXQF LD FRVWXOXL PLQLP YD IL

( ) (  )

< 3 - 3 I (W ) + J (W ) 3
- 3 H + N H -   -    +   - 
\ = = = =
W W W W

9DORDUHDPLQLP DDFHVWHLIXQF LLHVWHGDW GHPRPHQWXOvQFDUHGHULYDWDVDVHDQXOHD]  



{[ W ( 3 )] - [ 3 ( ) + N (H )] }=  

 \  = E H + N F H -H -
W

$FHDVW GHULYDW VHDQXOHD] DWXQFLFkQG

 \  = 3 E W H + 3 H - 3 + N FW H - N H + N = 

215
 5H]ROYDUHDDFHVWHLHFXD LLILLQGJUHRDLHHVWHVXILFLHQWV WLPF DFHDVW GHULYDW VHDQXOHD] 

SHQWUXRDQXPLW SHULRDG GHWLPS'HFLDFHDVW IXQF LHSUH]LQW RYDORDUHPLQLP DFRVWXOXLPHGLX

DQXDOGHH[SORDWDUH
 PRPHQWXOXL RSWLP GH vQORFXLUH SH ED]D FRVWXOXL PLQLP VH YD IDFH FX DMXWRUXO
'HWHUPLQDUHD

FDOFXOHORUQXPHULFHSUH]HQWDWHvQWDEHOXOGHPDLMRV

7DEHOXO

W \ 

 

 

 

 

 

3HED]DFDOFXOHORUGHPDLVXVVHFRQVWDW F PRPHQWXORSWLPGHvQORFXLUHVHVLWXHD] vQWUHDO

SDWUXOHDLDOFLQFHOHDDQ

3HQWUX D HVWLPD PRPHQWXO RSWLP GH vQORFXLUH VH YRU FRQWLQXD LWHUD LLOH SHQWUX XUP WRDUHOH

YDORULDOHYDULDELOHLWLPSW W W YH]L7DEHOXOFRORDQHOHL

7DEHOXO

W \ 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3H ED]D GDWHORU GLQ 7DEHOXO  VH HVWLPHD]  F  PRPHQWXO RSWLP GH vQORFXLUH D

HFKLSDPHQWXOXLHVWHGDWGHW DQLGHODSXQHUHDVDvQIXQF LXQHGHRDUHFHvQDFHVWPRPHQWVHYD

vQUHJLVWUD FHO PDL PLF FRVW DQXDO GH H[SORDWDUH UHVSHFWLY \ =   PLOOHLDQ$FHHDLFRQFOX]LH

VHGHGXFHLGLQUHSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF YH]L)LJXUD















     W 

    )LJXUD

216
 $QDOL]DHFRQRPHWULF DGHFL]LHLGHvQORFXLUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQWGH

SURGXF LHFXX]XU DOHDWRDUHvQFDGUXOXQHLVRFLHW LFRPHUFLDOH

)RUPXODUHDHFRQRPLF DSUREOHPHL

6H SUHVXSXQH F  VXQW SXVH vQ IXQF LXQH QW (W =  7 )  HFKLSDPHQWH GH SURGXF LH GH DFHODL

WLS vQ FDGUXO XQHL VRFLHW L FRPHUFLDOH /D LQWHUYDOH GH WLPS GH IXQF LRQDUH HJDOH VH vQUHJLVWUHD] 

QXP UXOGHHFKLSDPHQWHU PDVHvQIXQF LXQHGLQFHOHQHFKLSDPHQWHLQL LDOH

'DF  GH H[HPSOX R VRFLHWDWH FRPHUFLDO  D SXV vQ IXQF LXQH  GH HFKLSDPHQWH GH

SURGXF LH vQ DQXO  vQ XUP WRULL  DQL QXP UXO DFHVWRUD D vQUHJLVWUDW XUP WRDUHOH GLPLQX UL YH]L

7DEHOXOFRORDQHOHL

7DEHOXO

W QW Q (W ) QWQW Q (W - ) - Q (W ) Q (W - ) - Q (W )
YW = 3 (W ) =  3 (W ) =
Q ( ) Q ()

Q (W - )

     

     

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

!      

6H GHILQHWH SULQ GXUDWD GH IXQF LRQDUH D XQXL HFKLSDPHQW LQWHUYDOXO GH WLPS GHUXODW vQWUH

SXQHUHD VD vQ IXQF LXQH L PRPHQWXO W FRQVLGHUDW 'H UH LQXW HVWH IDSWXO F  WLPSXO VDX GXUDWD GH

IXQF LRQDUHGLIHU vQIXQF LHGHQDWXUDHFKLSDPHQWXOXLRUHGHIXQF LRQDUHSHQWUXPRWRDUHHOHFWULFH

DYLRDQHNPSHQWUXDXWRPRELOHDF LXQLSHQWUXQXP UXOGHDWHUL] ULDOHXQXLDYLRQHWF

'DF  Q UHSUH]LQW  QXP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH SXVH vQ IXQF LXQH OD PRPHQWXO LQL LDO LDU QW

QXP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH GLQ FHOH Q H[LVWHQWH vQ IXQF LXQH OD PRPHQWXO W DWXQFL P ULPHD

Q (W)
Y( W ) =   Y( W )  W  UHSUH]LQW  SUREDELOLWDWHD GH IXQF LRQDUH OD PRPHQWXO W D XQXL
Q ( )

HFKLSDPHQWSXVvQIXQF LXQHODPRPHQWXO

3H ED]D DFHVWHL P ULPL VH SRDWH FDOFXOD FXUED GH IXQF LRQDUH D XQXL HFKLSDPHQW RDUHFDUH

vQUHJLVWUkQG GDWHOH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH XQHL SRSXOD LL RPRJHQH GH HFKLSDPHQWH VDX DOH XQXL HDQWLRQ

UHSUH]HQWDWLYDODFHVWHLD

'DF  FRQGL LLOH PHQ LRQDWH PDL VXV SRW IL UHVSHFWDWH VH SRDWH DFFHSWD IDSWXO F 

HFKLSDPHQWHOH GH XQ DQXPLW WLS FRQVWLWXLH XQ DQVDPEOX RPRJHQ GLQ SXQFW GH YHGHUH VWDWLVWLF

UHVSHFWLY F  SHQWUX ILHFDUH HFKLSDPHQW GLQ SRSXOD LD REVHUYDW  H[LVW  R SUREDELOLWDWH D SULRUL FD

WRDWHFHOHODOWHHFKLSDPHQWHGHDFHODLWLSV XUPH]HIXQF LDSUREDELOLW LLGHIXQF LRQDUH

Q (W )
3 (7 W ) = Y (W ) = W =  7 YH]L7DEHOXOFRORDQDL)LJXUD
Q ( )

217
 Y  W  3 W


 

 

 

 
Y W

 

 

 
3  W
 

 

             W

    )LJXUD

3RUQLQGGHODGDWHOHGLQ7DEHOXOVHSRWFDOFXODRVHULHGHLQGLFDWRULFXPDUIL

3UREDELOLWDWHDGHIXQF LRQDUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQWGXS WDQLGHXWLOL]DUH

SHQWUXW DQLSUREDELOLWDWHDGHIXQF LRQDUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQWHVWH

Q () 
3 (7 W ) = Y () = = =  
Q ( ) 

 3UREDELOLWDWHD FD XQ HFKLSDPHQW V  ILH VFRV GLQ IXQF LXQH GXS  W DQL GH XWLOL]DUH

SUREDELOLWDWHDFRQWUDU 

3( 7 W ) =  - Y ( W ) = M ( W ) XQGHMWUHSUH]LQW GXUDWDGHIXQF LRQDUHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQW

'HH[HPSOXSUREDELOLWDWHDFDXQHFKLSDPHQWV QXPDLILHvQIXQF LXQHGXS FLQFLDQLHVWH

3 (7 ) =  - 3 (7 ) =  -   =   

 1XP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH FH WUHEXLH DFKL]L LRQDWH vQ YHGHUHD GHVI XU ULL vQ FRQGL LL

RSWLPHDSURFHVXOXLGHSURGXF LH

QFD]XOvQFDUHVRFLHWDWHDFRPHUFLDO FDUHGH LQHDFHVWHHFKLSDPHQWHDUHQHYRLHvQFHOGHDO

FLQFLOHD DQ GH  GH HFKLSDPHQWH vQ VWDUH GH IXQF LRQDUH QXP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH FDUH YRU

WUHEXLDFKL]L LRQDWHODvQFHSXWXOFHOXLGHDOFLQFLOHDDQYDIL

Q () = Q ( ) M () = Q ( ) 3 (7 ) =    =  HFKLSDPHQWH

 3UREDELOLWDWHD FD XQ HFKLSDPHQW V  ILH VFRV GLQIXQF LXQHvQWUXQLQWHUYDOFXSULQVvQWUHW

LWHVWHXUP WRDUHD

Q (W - ) Q (W ) Q (W - ) - Q (W )
3 (W ) = 3 (W -  7 W )= 3 (7 W - ) - 3 (7 W )= - = 
Q ( ) Q ( ) Q ( )

XQGH3 WUHSUH]LQW IXQF LDGHVFRDWHUHGLQIXQF LXQHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQW

3HED]DGDWHORUGLQ7DEHOXOSUREDELOLWDWHDFDXQHFKLSDPHQWV ILHVFRVGLQIXQF LXQH

vQLQWHUYDOXOW LW HVWH

Q ( - ) - Q ( ) Q () - Q ( )  - 

3 ( ) = = = =   
Q ( ) Q ( ) 

YH]L7DEHOXOFRORDQD

3UREDELOLWDWHDGHDYDULHDXQXLHFKLSDPHQW

6H GHILQHWH SULQ SUREDELOLWDWH GH DYDULH SUREDELOLWDWHD FRQGL LRQDW  FD XQ HFKLSDPHQW FDUHD

IXQF LRQDWI U QLFLRDYDULHSkQ ODPRPHQWXOWV DLE RGHIHF LXQHvQLQWHUYDOXOWLW)LH3 W

DFHDVW SUREDELOLWDWHFRQGL LRQDW $WXQFLVHSRDWHVFULH

3 (W -  7 W )= 3 (7 W - ) 3 (W ) 

GHXQGHUH]XOW F 

218
 Q (W - ) - Q (W )

3 (W -  7 W ) Q ( ) Q (W )
3 (W ) = = =-  YH]L 7DEHOXO 
3 (7 W - ) Q (W - ) Q (W - )

Q ( )

FRORDQD

'HH[HPSOXSHQWUXW DQLSUREDELOLWDWHDGHDYDULHHVWH

Q () 
3 () =  - =- =  -   =   
Q ( ) 

3UREDELOLWDWHD GH DYDULH HVWH R P ULPH FDUDFWHULVWLF  IRDUWH LPSRUWDQW  GHRDUHFH SULQ

LQWHUPHGLXO DFHVWHLD SRDWH IL HYDOXDW ULVFXO GH D PHQ LQH vQ IXQF LXQH XQ HFKLSDPHQW FDUH D DWLQV R

GXUDW WGHIXQF LRQDUH

5DWDGHDSURYL]LRQDUH

)LHQQXP UXOGHHFKLSDPHQWHSXVHvQIXQF LXQHODPRPHQWXOW Q 

Q (W )
'DF  Y (W )=  UHSUH]LQW  SUREDELOLWDWHD GH IXQF LRQDUH D HFKLSDPHQWHORU DFHVWHD YRU
Q ( )

U PkQHvQIXQF LXQHODPRPHQWXOWGDF QXYDILHIHFWXDW QLFLRvQORFXLUH

QW Q YW

)LHUNQXP UXOGHHFKLSDPHQWHvQORFXLWHSkQ ODPRPHQWXON ( < N W ) DWXQFL

JN  UN  UN  UHSUH]LQW  QXP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH vQORFXLWH vQ LQWHUYDOXO N   L N

)XQF LDJWUHSUH]LQW IXQF LDGHDSURYL]LRQDUH

1XP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH DIODWH vQF  vQ IXQF LXQH vQWUXQ PRPHQW YLLWRU W SURYHQLWH GLQ

DFHDVW DSURYL]LRQDUHYDIL

JN YWN >UNUN@ YWN

'HFL QXP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH DIODWH vQ IXQF LXQH OD PRPHQWXO W HVWH HJDO FX VXPD

HFKLSDPHQWHORU vQ VWDUH GH IXQF LRQDUH SHQWUX ILHFDUH LQWHUYDO GH WLPS FXSULQV vQWUH N  L N W

vQPXO LW HYLGHQW FX QXP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH vQ VWDUH GH IXQF LRQDUH SURYHQLWH GLQ FHOH Q

HFKLSDPHQWHSXVHvQIXQF LXQHODPRPHQWXOLQL LDOW LFDUHDXXUPDWDFHHDLOHJHGHIXQF LRQDUH

$VWIHOQXP UXOGHHFKLSDPHQWHvQVWDUHGHIXQF LRQDUHODPRPHQWXOWYDIL

(W ) = Q ( ) Y (W )+ [J (N ) Y (W - N )] 

I

SHQWUX N =  I () = Q ( ) 

SHQWUX N =  I () = Q ( ) Y () + J () Y ( ) = Q ( ) Y () + J () 

J () = I () - Q () Y () 

SHQWUX N =  I ( ) = Q ( ) Y ( ) + J () Y () + J ( ) Y () 

J ( ) = I ( ) - Q () Y ( ) - J () Y () 

SHQWUX N =  I () = Q ( ) Y () + J () Y ( ) + J ( ) Y () + J () Y ( ) 

J () = I () - Q () Y () - J () Y ( ) - J ( ) Y () 



SHQWUX N = W I (W ) = Q ( ) Y (W )+ [J (N ) Y (W - N )] + J (W ) Y ( ) 



J (W )= (W ) - Q ( ) Y (W )- [J (N ) Y (W - N )] 

I

XQGHJWUHSUH]LQW IXQF LDVDXYROXPXODSURYL]LRQ ULL

Q FD]XO vQ FDUH VRFLHWDWHD FRPHUFLDO  vQORFXLHWH vQ ILHFDUH DQ HFKLSDPHQWHOH FH VXQW VFRDVH

GLQIXQF LXQHFDXUPDUHDDYDULLORUVDXDFFLGHQWHORUIXQF LDVDXYROXPXODSURYL]LRQ ULLYDIL

J (W )= (W ) - Q ( ) Y (W )- [Q (W - ) - Q (W )] Y (W - N )

I

219
 5HYHQLQG OD H[HPSOXO LQL LDO  GDF  VRFLHWDWHD FRPHUFLDO  D vQORFXLW vQ FHO GHDO SDWUXOHD DQ

 GH HFKLSDPHQWH DWXQFL QXP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH DIODWH vQ IXQF LXQH vQ FHO GHDO DSWHOHD DQ YD

IL

I Q Y Y    

I HFKLSDPHQWH

Q DFHVW FD] QXP UXO GH HFKLSDPHQWH FDUH WUHEXLH vQORFXLWH vQ FHO GHDO DSWHOHD DQ SHQWUX D

DYHDvQIXQF LXQHGHHFKLSDPHQWHHVWHHJDOFX

JW  HFKLSDPHQWH

'DF  VRFLHWDWHDFRPHUFLDO DvQORFXLWvQFHOGHDOSDWUXOHDDQGHHFKLSDPHQWHvQFHOGH

DOFLQFLOHDDQGHHFKLSDPHQWHLDUvQFHOGHDODVHOHDDQGHHFKLSDPHQWHDWXQFLQXP UXO

GH HFKLSDPHQWH FDUH WUHEXLH vQORFXLWH vQ FHO GHDO DSWHOHD DQ SHQWUX D DYHD vQ IXQF LXQH  GH

HFKLSDPHQWHHVWHHJDOFX

I   Y Y Y

I  HFKLSDPHQWH

J  HFKLSDPHQWH

(VWLPDUHDHFRQRPHWULF DYROXPXOXLSURGXF LHLvQYHGHUHDPD[LPL] ULL

SURILWXOXLXQHLVRFLHW LFRPHUFLDOH

2 VRFLHWDWH FRPHUFLDO  GLVSXQHGHLQIRUPD LLSULYLQGOHJHDFHUHULLUHIHULWRDUHODSURGXF LDSH

FDUHRUHDOL]HD] 'HH[HPSOX

 SHQWUX R SURGXF LH T  WRQH  SUH XOSHFDUHvOYDSXWHDRE LQHVRFLHWDWHDFRPHUFLDO YDIL

S =  PLLOHLNJ

SHQWUXRSURGXF LH T =   WRQH VRFLHWDWHDYDRE LQHXQSUH GH S =  PLLOHLNJ

SHQWUXRSURGXF LH T =  WRQH VRFLHWDWHDYDRE LQHXQSUH GH S =  PLLOHLNJ

SHQWUXRSURGXF LH T =  WRQH SUH XORE LQXWYDIL S =  PLLOHLNJ

SHQWUXRSURGXF LH T =   WRQH SUH XORE LQXWYDIL S =  PLLOHLNJ

SHQWUXRSURGXF LH T =  WRQH SUH XORE LQXWYDIL S =  PLLOHLNJ

'H DVHPHQHD SH ED]D XQRU FDOFXOH WHKQLFRHFRQRPLFH vQ IXQF LH GH YROXPXO SURGXF LHL

FKHOWXLHOLOHGHSURGXF LHDIHUHQWHvQUHJLVWUHD] XUP WRDUHOHYDORULYH]L7DEHOXO

 7DEHOXO 

9ROXPXOSURGXF LHLWRQH       

&KHOWXLHOLGHSURGXF LHPLOOHL       

3HED]DDFHVWRUGDWHV VHHVWLPH]HQLYHOXORSWLPDOSURGXF LHLSHQWUXFDUHVHRE LQHXQSURILW

PD[LP

5H]ROYDUH

3RUQLQGGHODWHRULDHFRQRPLF DILUPHLRSWLPL]DUHDSURILWXOXLVRFLHW LLFRPHUFLDOHVHSRDWH

RE LQHFXDMXWRUXOXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOHGHIRUPD

/HJHDFHUHULLSURGXF LHL S = I (T ) + X 

)XQF LDGHSURGXF LHDFKHOWXLHOLORU &K = J (T ) + ] 

 (FXD LDFLIUHLGHDIDFHUL &$ = S T = T I (T ) 

)XQF LDSURILWXOXL P = &$ - &K = T I (T ) - J (T ) 



220
 

XQGH

S SUH XOGHYkQ]DUHDSURGXVHORU

T YROXPXOSURGXF LHL

 X] YDULDELOHOHUH]LGXDOH

Q ILQDO VH FRQVWDW  F  SURILWXO VRFLHW LL GHSLQGH QXPDL GH YROXPXO SURGXF LHL 5H]ROYDUHD

SUREOHPHL  PD[LPL]DUHD SURILWXOXL  VH SRDWH IDFH ILH SH ED]D GHULYDWHL HFXD LHL  ILH SH ED]D

UHSUH]HQW ULLJUDILFHILHSHED]DFDOFXOHORUQXPHULFH

3RUQLQG GH OD LQIRUPD LLOH FRQFUHWH SUH]HQWDWH DQWHULRU HVWLPDUHD YROXPXOXL SURGXF LHL FH

PD[LPL]HD]  SURILWXO VRFLHW LL UHVSHFWLYH SUHVXSXQH HVWLPDUHD OHJLL FHUHULL D IXQF LHLGHSURGXF LH

D FKHOWXLHOLORU D FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL D IXQF LHL SURILWXOXL L D YROXPXOXL SURGXF LHL FDUH FRQGXFH OD

RE LQHUHDSURILWXOXLPD[LPDOVRFLHW LL

(VWLPDUHDOHJLLFHUHULL

SHQWUX T W UH]XOW F  S =  PLLOHLNJ

 SHQWUX T > W  UH]XOW  F  OHJHD FHUHULL YD WUHEXL HVWLPDW  FX DMXWRUXO XQHL IXQF LL

PDWHPDWLFH





      T 

)LJXUD(YROX LDSUH XOXLvQIXQF LHGHYROXPXOSURGXF LHL

QXUPDUHSUH]HQW ULLJUDILFHDGDWHORUYH]L)LJXUDVHFRQVWDW F OHJHDFHUHULLSHQWUX

XQ YROXP GH YkQ] UL T > W  SRDWH IL HVWLPDW  FX DMXWRUXO XQHL IXQF LL SXWHUH VDX GXEOX

ORJDULWPLFH S = D T X 

$FHVWPRGHOQHOLQLDUSRDWHILWUDQVIRUPDWvQWUXQPRGHOOLQLDUSULQORJDULWPDUH

OQS OQDEOQTOQX

 1RWkQGFX

 OQS S 

 OQT T 

 OQX X 

 OQD D 

 P  QXP UXOGHREVHUYD LL

221
YD UH]XOWD XQ PRGHO OLQLDU XQLIDFWRULDO S   D   E  T   X  DL F UXL SDUDPHWUL YRU IL HVWLPD L FX

DMXWRUXOPHWRGHLFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWH

QXUPDDSOLF ULLSURJUDPXOXL(;&(/VDXRE LQXWXUP WRDUHOHUH]XOWDWH


6800$5<287387   

5HJUHVVLRQ6WDWLVWLFV   

0XOWLSOH5    

56TXDUH    

$GMXVWHG56TXDUH    

6WDQGDUG(UURU    

2EVHUYDWLRQV    

    

$129$    

 GI 66 06 )

5HJUHVVLRQ    

5HVLGXDO    

7RWDO    

    

 &RHIILFLHQWV 6WDQGDUG(UURU W6WDW 

,QWHUFHSW    

;9DULDEOH    

(VWLPDWRULLFHORUGRLSDUDPHWULLVXQW

=  = OQ D D
D =   @ 



E = - @ - 

3H ED]D LQIRUPD LLORU OLVWDWH GH SURJUDP PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF DO OHJLL FHUHULL SRDWH IL

DFFHSWDW FD PRGHO RSHUD LRQDO VLPLOLWXGLQHD VWDWLVWLF  D DFHVWXLD FX GDWHOH SULPDUH DOH SUH XOXL L

YROXPXOXLFHUHULLILLQGIRDUWHPDULHVWLPDWRULLLUDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LHILLQGVHPQLILFDWLYLFXXQSUDJ

GHVHPQLILFD LHIRDUWHPLF  

 PLL OHL  SHQWUX T W

S = 
T > W
 T
 SHQWUX

 (VWLPDUHD IXQF LHL FKHOWXLHOLORU GH SURGXF LH vQ UDSRUW FX YROXPXO SURGXF LHL VH IDFH FD L

vQFD]XOSUHFHGHQWSULQUHSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF DYDORULORUFHORUGRX YDULDELOHYH]L)LJXUD

&K






T
         

)LJXUD(YROX LDFKHOWXLHOLORUGHSURGXF LHvQIXQF LHGHYROXPXOSURGXF LHL

222


$D FXP VH SUH]LQW  FRUHORJUDPD YDULDELOHORU IXQF LD GH SURGXF LH D FKHOWXLHOLORU HVWH GH

IRUP OLQLDU UHVSHFWLY &K = a + b T + ] 

QYHGHUHDHVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORUVHYDIRORVLSURJUDPXO(;&(/

6800$5<287387   

5HJUHVVLRQ6WDWLVWLFV   

0XOWLSOH5    

56TXDUH    

$GMXVWHG56TXDUH    

6WDQGDUG(UURU    

2EVHUYDWLRQV    

    

    

$129$

 GI 66 06 )

5HJUHVVLRQ    

5HVLGXDO    

7RWDO    

    

 &RHIILFLHQWV 6WDQGDUG(UURU W6WDW 

,QWHUFHSW    

;9DULDEOH    

&HOH WUHL WDEHOH OLVWDWH GH SURJUDPXO (;&(/ FD L vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL OHJLL FHUHULL UHOHY 

IDSWXO F  PRGHOXO OLQLDU DO FKHOWXLHOLORU GH SURGXF LH GLQSXQFWGHYHGHUHHFRQRPHWULFDIRVWFRUHFW

VSHFLILFDW L LGHQWLILFDW &D DWDUH vQ VFRSXO HVWLP ULL SURILWXOXL RSWLP DO VRFLHW LL IXQF LD

FKHOWXLHOLORUGHSURGXF LHHVWH &K =  +  T 

 3HED]DUH]XOWDWHORURE LQXWHPDLVXVFLIUDGHDIDFHULDVRFLHW LLFRPHUFLDOHHVWHGHVFULV 

GHPRGHOXO

S T =  T PLL OHL  SHQWUX T W

&$ =  
S T = T =  PLL OHL  SHQWUX T > W

T

)XQF LDSURILWXOXLSRUQLQGGHODUHOD LDVHHVWLPHD] FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL

  SHQWUX T W  UH]XOW  F  P =  T - ( +  T ) =  T -   GHFL IXQF LD SURILWXOXL

HVWHRIXQF LHOLQLDU FUHVF WRDUHvQUDSRUWFXYROXPXOSURGXF LHL

  SHQWUX T > W  UH]XOW  F  P =  - ( +  T ) =  -  T  GHFL IXQF LD SURILWXOXL

HVWHRIXQF LHOLQLDU GHVFUHVF WRDUHvQUDSRUWFXYROXPXOSURGXF LHL

(VWLPDUHD YROXPXOXL RSWLP DO SURGXF LHL SHQWUX FDUH VH RE LQH XQ SURILW PD[LP VH IDFH vQ

XUPDGLVFX LHLFHORUGRX IXQF LLDOHSURILWXOXL

 P =  T -  

 P =  -  T 

6WUDWHJLD VRFLHW LL FRPHUFLDOH FRQVW  vQ D RE LQH XQ SURILW PDL PDUH FD ]HUR GLQ FHOH GRX 

UHOD LLUH]XOWkQG


 P = T -  >  T > W 


 P =  -  T >  T < W 

'HXQGHUH]XOW F YROXPXORSWLPDOSURGXF LHLVHGHILQHWHvQLQWHUYDOXO

223
  T (    ) 

'HWHUPLQDUHDYROXPXOXLRSWLPDOSURGXF LHLVHSRDWHIDFHSULQGRX SURFHGHH

DSULQFDOFXOHUHVSHFWLYSULQLQWHUVHF LDFHORUGRX IXQF LLDOHSURILWXOXL

  T -  =  -  T  T =  T =  WRQH 

SHQWUXFDUHSURILWXOPD[LPHVWH P  =   -  =  PLOOHL

ESHFDOHJUDILF vQXUPDUHSUH]HQW ULLJUDILFHDIXQF LLORUFRUHVSXQ] WRDUHFLIUHLGHDIDFHUL

LDFKHOWXLHOLORUGHSURGXF LHYH]L)LJXUD

&$ &K



0   &$  TP LOOHL 



&K  T






0 



1 

T
          

)LJXUD  (VWLPDUHD YROXPXOXL RSWLP DO SURGXF LHL vQ YHGHUHD RE LQHULL XQXL SURILW

PD[LP

3H ED]D JUDILFXOXL GH PDL VXV VH GHGXFH F  SURILWXO PD[LP VH RE LQH vQ SXQFWXO SHQWUX FDUH

YROXPXO SURGXF LHL HVWH HJDO FX  WRQH SXQFW F UXLD vL FRUHVSXQGH RUGRQDWD PD[LP   GLIHUHQ D

GLQWUHRUGRQDWHOHFHORUGRX SXQFWH0 L0  PLOOHLQSXQFWHOH1 L1 SURILWXOHVWH

HJDOFX]HURLDUvQDIDUDDEVFLVHORUDFHVWRUSXQFWHDSDU]RQHOHGHSLHUGHULQWUHFHOHGRX SXQFWHVH

vQUHJLVWUHD] ]RQDGHUHDOL]DUHDSURILWXOXLGHF WUHILUP 

'HVFULHUHDHFRQRPHWULF DOHJLLFHUHULLLRIHUWHLFXDMXWRUXOXQXL

PRGHOHFRQRPHWULFFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH

6H FXQRVF XUP WRDUHOH GDWH SULYLQG FHUHUHD SUH XO L RIHUWD XQXL DQXPLW SURGXV vQUHJLVWUDWH

SHRDQXPLW SLD 

 7DEHOXO

2IHUWDEXF       

3UH XOOHLEXF       

 7DEHOXO

&HUHUHDEXF      

3UH XOOHLEXF      

224
  6HFHUH

 DGHVFULHUHDHFRQRPHWULF DIRUP ULLSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUXLHVWLPDUHDDFHVWXLD

 EV VHFDOFXOH]HSUH XOGHHFKLOLEUXvQFRQGL LLOHvQFDUH

  E RIHUWDU PkQHQHVFKLPEDW GDUFHUHUHDVSRUHWHFX

  E RIHUWDU PkQHQHVFKLPEDW GDUFHUHUHDVSRUHWHFXGHEXF L

 FV VHFRPHQWH]HUH]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHODSXQFWHOHDLE

 5H]ROYDUH

D 'HVFULHUHD HFRQRPHWULF  D IRUP ULL SUH XOXL GH HFKLOLEUX VH UHDOL]HD]  FX DMXWRUXO

XUP WRUXOXLPRGHOFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOH

   3 = I ( 2) + X      

   3 = I ( &) + ]     

   2 = &       

3HQWUX LGHQWLILFDUHD OHJLL FHUHULL L D RIHUWHL YRUWUHEXLFRQVWUXLWHVHULLOHVWDWLVWLFHLYDWUHEXL

HIHFWXDW UHSUH]HQWDUHDJUDILF DDFHVWRUD

&RQVWUXLUHDVHULLORUVWDWLVWLFHVHIDFHSHED]DXUP WRDUHORUUD LRQDPHQWH

 GDF  XQ FXPS U WRU DFKL]L LRQHD]  XQ SURGXV OD XQ DQXPLW SUH  HO vO YD FXPS UD FX DWkW

PDLPXOWFXFkWSUH XOYDILPDLPLF

GDF XQSURGXF WRURIHUWDQWvLYLQGHSURGXVXOODXQDQXPLWSUH HOvOYDYLQGHFXDWkWPDL

PXOWFXFkWSUH XOYDILPDLPDUH

3HED]DDFHVWRUUD LRQDPHQWHUH]XOW XUP WRDUHOHVHULLVWDWLVWLFHFRQVWUXLWHvQXUPDRUGRQ ULL

SUH XULORUDQXQ DWHGHFXPS U WRULLSURGXF WRUL

7DEHOXO

2IHUWD 3UH XO &HUHUHD 2 3 

 & 3 
     
2   &   3
  =  - X = 3 - 3

PLLOHL PLLOHLEXF PLLEXF 

2   3   &   - &

      
        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

       

5HSUH]HQWDUHD JUDILF  D SUH XOXL vQ IXQF LH GH FHUHUH L RIHUW  VH IDFH SH ED]D GDWHORU GLQ

7DEHOXOFRORDQHOH

225
 D >
-/. 610

-2. 6

-/. 510

-2. 5

-/. 340

-2. 3

-/. 010
7 - 8 9 : 0 3 5 6 ; -<7
=?>A@ BC>

     )LJXUD

Q XUPD UHSUH]HQW ULL JUDILFH YH]L )LJXUD  VH REVHUY F OHJLOHFHUHULLLRIHUWHLSRWIL

DSUR[LPDWHFXGRX IXQF LLOLQLDUHGHIRUPD

 /HJHDFHUHULL 3  = D  + E &  + X  

 /HJHDRIHUWHL 3  =a  + b 
2 + ]  
QYHGHUHDHVWLP ULLSDUDPHWULORU D  E  a  b VHDSOLF 0&003ILHF UXLPRGHOvQSDUWH

0RGHOXOFHUHULL
 
   ) D

E ( ! ! )= PLQ " (3

!
- 3 ! ) = PLQ " (3

!
- D ! !
-E & ! ) 
   
) ( D ) & 3
   $# =  QD $# + E
$# # = # 

( $ )= & &
   ) E
$  D $$ $ + E
$$ $% = 3 & $$ 

3HED]DGDWHORUGLQ7DEHOXOFRORDQHOHVLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLGHYLQH

$& +  E
$& = 
D
   
 D $& +  E
$& =  

'HXQGHUH]XOW 

Q 3 '  

& 3 &
' ''       - 
  E
$' = = = 

&  - 

Q '   

& &
' '(    

- 
  E
$) = = - 
 

3
+ & +  
*
3 & &
+ + +     - 
 
D + = = = 

&   

Q +
*
& &
+ +

 
  D $, = =  
 

226
 QILQDOPRGHOXOFDUHGHVFULHOHJHDFHUHULLHVWHGHIRUPD

   3 , =  - &  ,
0RGHOXORIHUWHL
H F H F
) (a
$ E  b$ E ) = PLQ
" ( 3E - 3E ) " ( 3E
PLQ )
  
$ = $E
-a
$ 2E
- b E 
G J I G

) (a ) 2
   $K =  Qa $K $K
+ b K = 3 K 

) ( b K )= 2 2 3
   a $K K + b
$K KL = KM
2K 

3HED]DGDWHORUGLQ7DEHOXOFRORDQHOHVLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLGHYLQH

a $N +  b
$N = 

   
 a $N +  b
$N =  

'HXQGHUH]XOW 

  

   

   $O
a = =  
  

   

 

   
  
$P
b = =  


QXUPDHIHFWX ULLFDOFXOHORUPRGHOXOFDUHGHVFULHOHJHDRIHUWHLHVWHGHIRUPD

  3 Q =  + 2  Q
 3HQWUX D YHULILFD VHPQLILFD LD SDUDPHWULORU L D PRGHOHORU VH YRU FDOFXOD DEDWHULOH PHGLL

S WUDWLFHDOHHVWLPDWRULORU ( VR T V V S TU T
V  VW V V XT V ) LUDSRDUWHOHGHFRUHOD LH ( 5 Y[] Z 5 Y[] \ ) 

b
b
b c 
 
&

  V ^` a = V _ + b =  + =  
Q
(&

c - & c )
 

  V de f =  

g g
(3
j gi h
- 3 h )  j
  V = = =  V =  
Q - N - 
km
m V 
  V of = n k = =  

(&
l -& l ) 

  V pq r =  

 2 ts   s

  V xu v = V w su + =  + =  

(2
Q
t -2 t )s

 

  V z|y { =  

~
(3
~ 
- 3  )  }
  V } = = =  V =  
Q - N - 

V 
  V = = =  

(2
-2 ) 

  V =  

227

(3

- 3 ) 
  5 = - = - =  

(3
- 3 ) 

  5 =  


  5 = - =  =  


3H ED]D FDOFXOHORU GH PDL VXV OHJHD FHUHULL L OHJHD RIHUWHL VXQW GHVFULVH GH XUP WRDUHOH

PRGHOHHFRQRPHWULFH

 OHJHDFHUHULL

5 = 
  3
=  - &
 
2 1 42 = 
( ) ( ) V

 OHJHDRIHUWHL

5 = 
  3
=  + 2
 
4 1 = 
( ) ( ) V

  

6H SRDWH FRQVWDWD UDSLG F  DWkW HVWLPDWRULL FHORU GRX  PRGHOH FkW L UDSRDUWHOH GH FRUHOD LH

UHVSHFWLYHVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYHFXXQSUDJGHVHPQLILFD LH a =  

QDFHVWVFRSVHSRWXWLOL]DWHVWHOHFXQRVFXWH

WHVWXOWYDORDUHDWHRUHWLF ILLQGHJDO FX W

=   

WHVWXO)YDORDUHDWHRUHWLF ILLQGHJDO FX )

4 =  

'HRDUHFH FHOH GRX  PRGHOH HFRQRPHWULFH DX IRVW FRUHFW VSHFLILFDWH L HVWLPDWH HOH SRW IL

XWLOL]DWH OD HVWLPDUHD SUH XOXL GH HFKLOLEUX (3 )  L D YROXPXOXL GH HFKLOLEUX DO FHUHULL ( & )  L DO

RIHUWHL ( 2 ) 
3HED]DHFXD LHLDPRGHOXOXLHFRQRPHWULFLQL LDO 2
= & UH]XOW  

  D + E 
& =a + b 
2 

'LQHJDOLWDWHDGHPDLVXVYROXPXOGHHFKLOLEUXHVWHHJDOFX

a - D  - 
  2 = & = = =  PLLEXF
E - b - - 

LDUSUH XOGHHFKLOLEUXHVWHHJDOFX

a - D a
E - D b  ( -) -  
3 = D + E = = =  PLL
E - b E - b - - 

OHLEXF

E  'DF  RIHUWD U PkQH QHVFKLPEDW  OHJHD RIHUWHL U PkQH GH DVHPHQHD FRQVWDQW  L HJDO 

FX 3 =  + 2 
'DF  FHUHUHD VSRUHWH FX  (N = )  vQ DFHVW FD] OHJHD FHUHULL YD IL GHVFULV  FX DMXWRUXO

PRGHOXOXL 3 = D
+ E & XQGH & = N& =  & 
(VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU D  L E  FX DMXWRUXO 0&003 FRQGXFH OD XUP WRUXO VLVWHP GH
HFXD LL

& 3
QD
+E =


& &

3
D +E = &

'LQSULPDHFXD LHDVLVWHPXOXLGHHFXD LLHVWLPDWRUXO D HVWHHJDOFX $

&



  $
D = 3 - E
$ = 3 - E &
$ = 3 $
- E N& 
Q Q

228

Q 3

(3
&
3

& FRY( 3  & ) - 3 )( & - & )
  E
$ = = = =

(&
Q & s - & )

& &

N (3 - 3 )( & - & )  
( -)
  = =
$
E = = - 

(&
N - & ) N 


  D $ = 3 - E N&
$ = 3 - E N&
$U = 3 - E &
$ = D $ =  
N

QXUPDDFHVWRUFDOFXOHPRGHOXOFXHFXD LLPXOWLSOHFXDMXWRUXOF UXLDVHSRWHVWLPDSUH XOL

YROXPXOGHHFKLOLEUXDOHFHUHULLLRIHUWHLHVWH

3 = D + E & =  - & 

  3 =a + b 
2 =  + 2 
   2 = & 
3XQkQG FRQGL LD GH HFKLOLEUX 2 =& YDORULOHGHHFKLOLEUXDOHSUH XOXLFHUHULLLRIHUWHLVH

FDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LLORU

a -D
  2 =& = =  PLLEXF
E - b
LDUSUH XOGHHFKLOLEUXHVWHHJDOFX

a -D a E -D b
  3 = D +E = =  PLLOHLEXF
E - b E - b
E  &D L OD SXQFWXO SUHFHGHQW OHJHD RIHUWHL U PkQH GH DVHPHQHD FRQVWDQW  GHRDUHFH RIHUWD

QXVHPRGLILF LHVWHHJDO FX 3 =  + 2 
'DF  FHUHUHD VSRUHWH FX  GH EXF L (G =  )  OHJHD FHUHULL YD IL GHVFULV  FX DMXWRUXO

PRGHOXOXL

  3 =D +E & 

 XQGH & =& + G =& +  

Q XUPD DSOLF ULL 0&003 vQ YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL SDUDPHWULORU D  L E  UH]XOW  XUP WRUXO

VLVWHPGHHFXD LL

QD
+ E & = 3
 

D & + E & = 3 &

'LQSULPDHFXD LHDVLVWHPXOXLGHHFXD LLHVWLPDWRUXO D $ HVWHHJDOFX

 &

 
D = 3 -E
= 3
-E & = 3 -E
(& +G )
Q Q

Q 3

&
3 &
FRY (3  & ) (3
- 3 )(& -& )

  E = = = 

(& -& )
Q &
s

&
&



(3
- 3 )( & + G - & - G) (3
- 3 )( & - & )
 = = = E
$ = - 

(& - G) (&
+ G - & - & )

 
D
= 3 -E (& + G ) =  - (- )(  +  ) =  

229
 $VWIHO PRGHOXO FX HFXD LL PXOWLSOH FX DMXWRUXO F UXLD VH SRDWH HVWLPD SUH XO GH HFKLOLEUX L

YROXPXOGHHFKLOLEUXDOHFHUHULLLRIHUWHLHVWH

   3 = D +E (& +G )

   3 = a + b 2 

   2 =& 

'HUH LQXWF  3 = D + E & =D +E & =D +E & 

3XQkQGFRQGL LDGHHFKLOLEUX 2 =& YDORULOHGHHFKLOLEUXDOHSUH XOXLFHUHULLLRIHUWHLVH

FDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOUHOD LLORU

a -D
   2 =& = =  PLLEXF
E - b
LDUSUH XOGHHFKLOLEUXHVWHHJDOFX

a -D a E -D b
   3 = D +E = =  PLLOHLEXF
E - b E - b
FQFRPSDUD LHFXSXQFWXODSHQWUXFDUH

   3

=
a E



-D b



L 2

=&

=
a -D

E - b E - b


OD SXQFWXO E  vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH FHUHUHD VH PRGLILF  FX XQ FRHILFLHQW N (N > )  SHQWUX WR L

FRQVXPDWRULLFHHDFHJUDILFvQVHDPQ F GLVWDQ DID GHRULJLQHU PkQHFRQVWDQW  D  

= D GDUDUH

ORFRFUHWHUHDSDQWHLGUHSWHL (E <  ) E   =E N E   >E YH]L)LJXUD


3

3 = D   +E & 



3  = a  + b 2  
 



3  3  = D +E &  




3 
 3



3    = D +E & 


&    & & &2

)LJXUD

QDFHDVW VLWXD LHVHSRDWHGHPRQVWUDF 

   D2

= D&

=& 
-&

=
E (N - )(a -D )

(E - Nb )(E - b )




(a      
-D )(NE -E )
   
b b
   D3 = 3 - 3 = 
(E - Nb )(E - b )

WLLQGF 

  E  <  b  >  3  >  &  >  2  > 

  (a  
-D )= 3  - b 2   - 3      +E & =E & - b 2   < 

VHGHGXFHF 

230
   
 GDF  N > 

D&
 >  &

 
> &

D3

 >  3

 
> 3

 GDF  N < 
D3

D&
 <  &

<  3  
< &

< 3


'H DVHPHQHD vQ DFHVW FD] DSDU XUP WRDUHOH PRGLILF UL DOH FRHILFLHQWXOXL PDUJLQDO L DOH

FRHILFLHQWXOXLGHHODVWLFLWDWHDFHUHULL

\ 3 
   FP = = =E E =E 
 
[ & N

  GDF  N >  E  < E  

  GDF  N <  E ! > E 

\ \ 3 &
   FH = = 
[ [ & 3

FH " " ""

= E
&

3


" # #

" "
E N&
FH E & N

# # "# # " " " "

   = = = 
& FH E & E &

FH = E
3

'HFL FRHILFLHQWXO GH HODVWLFLWDWH U PkQH FRQVWDQW GDF  FHUHUHD FUHWH FX XQ FRHILFLHQW N OD

QLYHOXOILHF UXLFRQVXPDWRU

3H ED]D GDWHORU SUREOHPHL FHUHUHD P ULQGXVH GH GRX  RUL (N =  )  VH FRQVWDW  XUP WRDUHOH

PRGLILF ULDOHFHORUSDWUXLQGLFDWRULvQFD]XOE vQFRPSDUD LHFXFD]XOD $

 
% = D&
%
PRGLILFDUHDYROXPXOXLGHHFKLOLEUXDOFHUHULLLRIHUWHL

D2 = & &% '% -& >  SHQWUXF  N =  >  

 
(
PRGLILFDUHDSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUX

D3 = 3 )( - 3 *( >  3 )( *( > 3 

PRGLILFDUHDFRHILFLHQWXOXLPDUJLQDODOSUH XOXL

FP + + = E

 
FP , , + = E = E
 FP

, < FP + 

PRGLILFDUHDFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHHODVWLFLWDWHDOSUH XOXL

FH - - -- =E
&

FH . E . -. &

3


N
E - --
N
&

3

 

FH . . -. =E
&


FH - =

E - -- &
=

E - --&
= 

3 3 3

'LQ FRPSDUDUHD UH]XOWDWHORU GH OD SXQFWXO D FX FHOH RE LQXWH OD SXQFWXO E  XQGH FHUHUHD VH /
PRGLILF  FX R P ULPH FRQVWDQW  G  OD QLYHOXO ILHF UXL FXPS U WRU G =  >    FHHD FH JUDILF

vQVHDPQ RGHSODVDUHSDUDOHO VSUHGUHDSWDDGUHSWHLDGLF SDQWDGUHSWHLU PkQHFRQVWDQW  E 1 0

=E 

GDUVHPRGLILF GLVWDQ DID GHRULJLQH D 3 2 2 =D -E G D 3 2 >D YH]L)LJXUD

7RWRGDW VHSRDWHGHPRQVWUDF GDF FHUHUHDVHPRGLILF FXRDQXPLW P ULPHFRQVWDQW G

SHQWUXWR LFRQVXPDWRULLVHSURGXFXUP WRDUHOHWUDQVIRUP UL

PRGLILFDUHDYROXPXOXLGHHFKLOLEUXDOFHUHULLLRIHUWHL

6 4
  D& =& 56 -&
46 =G 4 E
4 

  GDF  G >  D&

7 E

>  &
- b

97 >& 87 

231
   GDF  G <  D&
7 <  & 97 <& 87 

PRGLILFDUHDSUH XOXLGHHFKLOLEUX

< ;< :< : :

  D3 = 3 - 3 =G
E
: b
: 

= E - b





GDF  G >  D3

GDF  G <  D3
= > 

< 

FRHILFLHQWXOPDUJLQDODOSUH XOXLvQIXQF LHGHFHUHUHU PkQHQHVFKLPEDW

  FP ? = FP > =
3

&
=E > 

@ @ @@
PRGLILFDUHDFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHHODVWLFLWDWHDOSUH XOXL

FH =E
&

A A@ @
3 FH

B
& &
@
+G G
@
A B @A
  = = =+ 
& FH & & &

FH =E
3

'HFL

 GDF  G >  FH D > FH C 

GDF  G <  FH G < FH FE 

%,%/,2*5$),(

*LUDXG5&KDL[1eFRQRPpWULH38)3DULV
/DEURXVVH&,QWURGXFWLRQDOpFRQRPpWULH'XQRG3DULV

 3LQG\FN 5 6 5XELQIHOG ' 6  (FRQRPHWULF 0RGHOV DQG (FRQRPLF )RUHFDVWV 
HJI  HG 0F

*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN

7 Q VRLX2,DFRE$,(FRQRPHWULHDSOLFDW (GLWXUD$57(7,&$57%XFXUHWL

9DQJUHYHOLQJKH*eFRQRPpWULH+HUPDQQ&ROOHFWLRQ0pWKRGHV3DULV

232
 

$QH[DQU7DEHOXOFXYDORULOHGLVWULEX LHLQRUPDOHFHQWUDWHUHGXVH1

7DEHOXOFRQ LQHSUREDELOLWDWHDaSHQWUXFDUHDUJXPHQWXOWHVWHPDLPDUHVDXHJDOvQYDORDUH

DEVROXW FXRYDORDUHGDW W UHVSHFWLYSUREDELOLWDWHDVLWXDW vQDIDUDLQWHUYDOXOXL

W W 

a 3U^WW W `

XQGH

a 3U^W WW `

a >3U^W W`@

W          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

3UREDELOLWDWHDaVHRE LQHSULQDGXQDUHDQXPHUHORUvQVFULVHSHPDUJLQH

 'HH[HPSOX3HQWUXW SUREDELOLWDWHDHVWHa  

7DEHOXOFXYDORULOHPLFLDOHOXLa

a       

W 

      

 233
 $QH[DQU7DEHOXOFXYDORULOHGLVWULEX LHLc

        
a
        
Y


        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

 234
 $QH[DQU7DEHOXOGLVWULEX LHL'XUELQ:DWVRQFXSUDJXOGHVHPQLILFD LH a =  

Q N  N  N  N  N 

 G 
 G   G 
 G   G 
 G   G 
 G   G 
 G  

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

 1RW NUHSUH]LQW QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQHLDUQQXP UXOYDULDQWHORUDFHVWRUD

 235
 $QH[DQUFRQWLQXDUH7DEHOXOGLVWULEX LHL'XUELQ:DWVRQFXSUDJXOGHVHPQLILFD LH a =  

Q N  N  N  N  N 

 G 
 G 
 G 
 G 
 G 
 G 
 G 
 G 
 G 
 G 


          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

 1RW NUHSUH]LQW QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQHLDUQQXP UXOYDULDQWHORUDFHVWRUD

 236
 $QH[DQU9DORULOHUDSRUWXOXLGLVSHUVLLORU)FRUHVSXQ] WRDUHGLIHULWHORUQLYHOHGHVHPQLILFD LH

9 

 9 

= 9 

=  9 

=  9 

= 

 a =   a =   a =   a =   a =   a =   a =   a =  

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

 237
 $QH[DQUFRQWLQXDUH

9  9 

=  9 

=  9 =  


9 =  


 a =   a =   a =   a =   a =   a =   a =   a =  

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

        

1RW QWRWGHDXQD 9 FRUHVSXQGHFHOHLPDLPDULGLVSHUVLL

 238
 $QH[DQU7DEHOXOFXYDORULOHGLVWULEX LHLW6WXGHQWvQIXQF LHGHSUREDELOLWDWHD 3 (W W

)

Q            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

            

1RW QUHSUH]LQW QXP UXOJUDGHORUGHOLEHUWDWH

 239