Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
riscului de credit
Conf. univ. dr. Bogdan Moinescu
Dr. Adrian Codirlasu, CFA
I. Reglementarea
prudentiala a riscului de
credit
ISDA (1999):
Faliment
nrutire
a rating-ului firmei
Achiziie/fuziune
Restructurarea datoriei
Accelerare a obligaiei
Falimentul unei entiti cu care entitatea de
referin este n relaii strnse
Neplata cuponului/dobnzii la scaden
Repudiere a datoriei
Reglementari microprudentiale:
Clasificarea creditelor si constituirea
provizioanelor
Cerintele de capital (CRD)
Reglementari macroprudentiale:
Limitarea
expunerilor mari
Rezerva anticiclica de capital
Reglementari microprudentiale
- provizioane (1)
Reglementari microprudentiale
- provizioane (2)-
Serviciul datoriei
Performanta financiara
Initierea de proceduri judiciare
Reglementari microprudentiale
- provizioane (3)Nr declasari totale = nr. declasari privind
performanta financiara + nr declasari privind
serviciul datoriei
Exemplu:
performanta
Reglementari microprudentiale
- cerinte de capital Abordarea standard
Abordarea bazata pe modele interne
de baza (PD)
avansata (PD, LGD, CF)
Cerinte de capital
- abordarea standard (1)
Categorii de debitori
state,
Ponderi de risc
Cerine de capital
Debitor
AAA
la AA-
A+ la
A-
BBB+ la
BBB-
BB+ la
B-
Sub B-
fr
rating
State
0%
20%
50%
100%
150%
100%
20%
50%
100%
100%
150%
100%
20%
(20%)
50%
(20%)
50%
(20%)
100%
(50%)
150%
(150%)
50%
(20%)
BB+ la
BB-
Sub
BB-
150%
150%
Corporaii
20%
50%
100%
100%
(a) ponderile sunt bazate pe rating-urile statului unde bncile i au sediul social.
(b) ponderile sunt stabilite pe baza rating-ului bncii.
(c) n parantez sunt prezentate ponderile pentru creditele pe termen scurt (mai mici de trei luni).
Creditele retail
Acordul Basel II
Acordul Basel I
Iunie 1988 , Comitetul de Supraveghere
Bancar de la Basel
Capitalul unei bnci trebuie meninut la 8%
din expunerea bncilor
Implementat n UE n anul 1993 prin
Directiva adecvrii capitalului 93/6/EEC
n Romnia, prin Norma BNR nr. 12/2003,
nivelul minim al indicatorului de
solvabilitate 12%
Basel I - deficiene
Ponderi (0%, 10%, 20%, 50% i 100%)
acordate simplist
Capitalul nu variaz funcie de calitatea
companiei creditate (credit garantat ctre
o companie AAA sau credit negarantat
ctre o companie BB => capital necesar
8%) => posibilitate de arbitraj
Basel II
1999 i 2003 publicate proiecte de acord
consultative, iunie 2004 publicat
versiunea final
Recunoate progresele nregistrate n
managementul riscului de credit
permite
Basel II - Abordri
Abordarea standardizat
Abordarea bazat pe rating-uri generate
intern (IRB):
de
baz
avansat
Capital RWA 8%
k
Diferene fa de Basel I:
Exemplu
Portofoliu 100 companie fr rating, 100
plasamente la BNR, 100 credite ipotecare
Basel I
RWA=100*100%+100*0%+100*50%=150
Capital=150*8%=12
Componentele riscului:
probabilitatea
De baz
Permite
Avansat
Toate
banc
LGD Basel II
Calculat ca procent din expunerea n
momentul intrrii n incapacitate de plat a
debitorului (EAD)
IRB de baz:
E
LGD LGD
E
LGD* pierderea efectiv n cazul intrrii n
incapacitate de plat a debitorului
LGD rata pentru tranzacia
necolateralizat
E* expunerea n cazul lurii n
considerare a garaniilor
E expunerea n cazul nelurii n
considerare a garaniilor
*
LGD - estimare
Gradul de prioritate al instrumentului de
credit
Industria n care i desfoar activitatea
debitorul
Poziia n cadrul ciclului economic
Modele econometrice ce folosesc ca
variabile explicative date referitoare la
instrumentul de credit, sector de activitate,
activitatea economic, compania debitoare
(LossCalc dezvoltat de Moodys)
Expunere
Cunoscut cu certitudine credite,
obligaiuni
Incert linii de credit
date
Expunere Basel II
Clase de active
corporaii
guverne
bnci
retail
valori mobiliare
STUDIU DE CAZ
- Portofoliul de retail si cel ipotecar -
33
33
Segmentarea
activelor
Calcularea RWA
Monitorizarea RWA
1. Segmentarea activelor
Portofoliul de retail
Portofolilul de credite ipotecare
Elemente restante
Tipologia debitorului
(Criteriul privind
destinatarul):
- PF
- IMM
in
Reclasificarea
creditelor
non-retail prezinta persistenta.
raport
retail
EUR:CHF=1.20 EUR:CHF=1.25
Loan to Mr. X
Loan to Mr. X
Outstanding
amount:
CHF 1.25 mil.
Outstanding
amount:
CHF 1.2 mil.
cu
in
Exposure class:
Non-retail
Exposure class:
Non-retail
Portofoliul de retail
Portofoliul de credite ipotecare
Elemente restante
e.g. LTV<75%
de timp;
Monitorizare: reevaluarea proprietatii trebuie realizata cel putin o data la trei
ani, cu exceptia perioadelor in care volatilitatea pietei este ridicata, iar
privind
calitatea
ipotecilor
cu
active
imobiliare
rezidentiale
In situatia in care ipoteca nu indeplineste conditiile de eligibilitate
mentionate anterior, nu poate fi luata in considerare in cursul
procesului de segmentare a expunerilor.
In asemenea circumstante, expunerea va fi considerata negarantata si
alocata corespunzator.
Portofoliul de retail
Portofoliul de credite ipotecare
Elemente restante
Elemente restante
Clasa de expuneri
Expuneri restante:
Expuneri care prezinta intarzieri la plata mai mari de 90 de
zile, cu o valoare superioara pragului de semnificatie definit
de reglementarile in vigoare
- problema materialitatii
o valoare absoluta(e.g. EUR 10)
o pondere in suma ramasa de rambursat (e.g. 0.5%)
2. RWA calculation
Sursa: Bogdan Moinescu (2011), Standardised Approach for Credit Risk - Treatment
of the retail and mortgage portfolios, Workshop on the Implementation of Basel II
Standardised Approaches - Practical issues, Skopje, 17-18 October 2011, TAIEX
workshop INT MARKT 41237
Risk Weights
Fundamental steps
Practical examples
Different Risk Weights (RW) are applied to each exposure class, therefore, the
importance of correct allocation of each transaction) to exposure class.
Item
no.
Exposure class
Detail
RW
1.
Retail
75%
2.
Mortgage - Residential
Real Estate
35%
3.
Mortgage - Residential
Real Estate
75%
4.
Mortgage - Commercial
Real Estate
50%
5.
Mortgage - Commercial
Real Estate
100%
For Past Due Items, provision amount is important, as it indicates that part of the
loss for the respective facility has already been taken covered.
Item
no.
Exposure class
Detail
RW
6.
100%
7.
150%
8.
50%
9.
100%
undrawn credit facilities with an original maturity of more than one year
100% for full risk facilities
irrevocable standby letters of credit having the character of credit
substitutes, credit derivatives
Risk Weights
Fundamental steps
Practical examples
Provision
amount
Exposure
split
Secured amount
Unsecured
amount
Gross
exposure
amount:
On-balance
Off-balance
On-balance
Off-balance
Exposure
amount net
of provision
Application of corresponding RW
Risk Weights
Fundamental steps
Practical examples
Steps
Personal Loan
Overdraft
facility
Mortgage Loan
1000
1000
1000
500
500
Gross exposure
amount
On-balance
Gross exposure
amount
Off-balance
RE Collateral
Value
(SM=33.3%)
Personal
Guarantee
Financial
collateral
Secured
amount
375
Unsecured
amount
1000
1500
625
Steps
Personal Loan
Overdraft
facility
Mortgage
Loan
Provision amount
On-balance
50
70
30
Provision amount
Off-balance
10
Net exposure
On-balance
950
930
970
11
Net exposure
Off-balance
500
12
Conversion of off-balance
facility
0%
13
Conversion of off-balance
facility
20%
500
14
Conversion of off-balance
facility
50%
15
Conversion of off-balance
facility
100%
16
Application of
corresponding RW
75%
75%
35%/75%
17
RWA
712.5
772.5
582
Steps
Gross exposure
amount
On-balance
Gross exposure
amount
Off-balance
RE Collateral
Value
(SM=33.3%)
Personal
Guarantee
Financial
collateral
Secured
amount (RE)
Unsecured
amount
Mortgage Loan
fully guaranteed
by State
Mortgage Loan
partially guaranteed
by State
Car loan
1000
1000
1000
500
1000
500
200
375
1000
625
1000
Steps
Mortgage Loan
fully guaranteed
by State
Mortgage Loan
partially guaranteed
by State
Car Loan
Provision amount
On-balance
10
10
40
Provision amount
Off-balance
10
Net exposure
On-balance
990
990
960
11
Net exposure
Off-balance
12
0%
13
20%
14
50%
15
100%
16
Application of
corresponding RW
0%*
0%/35%/75%
75%
17
RWA
217.75
570
* for personal guarantees, the RW applicable to the Sovereign guarantor is applied and is
reported accordingly by Outflow to corresponding Non-retail report.
Steps
Gross exposure
amount
On-balance
Gross exposure
amount
Off-balance
-
RE Collateral
Value
(SM=33.3%)
Personal
Guarantee
Financial
collateral
Secured
amount RE
Unsecured
amount
Mortgage Loan
Personal Loan
Past Due
500
1000
1000
500
2000 (10%
pledged)
500
100
150
375
850
625
1000
Steps
Mortgage
Loan
Mortgage Past
Due
Personal Loan
Past Due
Provision amount
On-balance
70
840
110
Provision amount
Off-balance
10
Net exposure
On-balance
430
160
890
11
Net exposure
Off-balance
500
12
0%
13
20%
14
50%
500
15
100%
16
Application of
corresponding RW
35%/75%
50%/100%
150%
17
RWA
326.7
130
1335
3. RWA monitoring
Sursa: Bogdan Moinescu (2011), Standardised Approach for Credit Risk - Treatment
of the retail and mortgage portfolios, Workshop on the Implementation of Basel II
Standardised Approaches - Practical issues, Skopje, 17-18 October 2011, TAIEX
workshop INT MARKT 41237
correlation between rent (of the mortgaged property) and his other types
of income
The risk of the borrower must not materially depend upon the performance of
the underlying property.
65
Probabilitatea de nerambursare
Pierderea in caz de nerambursare
Expunerea in caz de nerambursare
Elemente
bilantiere
Elemente extrabilantiere (factorul de
conversie)
Coeficientul de corelatie
Maturitatea
Categorii de expuneri
PD MF ( M , PD )
K LGD N
1 R
20
250
18
16
200
150
100
14
12
10
8
6
50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
LGD
0.6
0.7
0.8
LGD=0.60
LGD=0.75
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
12
Maruritatea (M)
14
16
18
20
1 e 50PD
0,241
50
1
0.24
0.22
0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Reducerea riscului de
credit
credit
E max0, E 1 He C 1 Hc Hfx
Transferului
Hedging-ului
Riscul de credit
ISDA (1999):
Faliment
nrutire
a rating-ului
Achiziie/fuziune
Restructurare a datoriei
Accelerare a obligaiei
Falimentul unei entiti cu care entitatea de
referin este n relaii strnse
Neplata cuponului/dobnzii la scaden
Repudiere a datoriei
Utilizatori
Hedging,
Asumare risc de credit,
Diversificare (sintetic) a portofoliului,
Managementul portofoliului de credite.
Evoluie
Piaa global a derivativelor pe risc de credit
mld. USD
9000
1997/1998 Survey
2001/2002 Survey
1999/2000 Survey
2003/2004 Survey
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
Localizare
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2003
2004
Londra
Americi
2006
Asia/Australia
Altele
Clasificate funcie de
Activul (creditul) suport - o singur sau mai
multe entiti
Condiiile de exercitare - un eveniment de
credit (intrare n incapacitate de plat) sau
o majorare a spread-ului
Payoff-ul - fix sau variabil (liniar sau
neliniar)
Instrumente derivate
Activul de referin
(obligaiune)
Pli periodice
Plat n cazul
evenimentului de credit
Contrapartida B
Vnztorul de protecie
Sursa, International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) Market Surveys, 2001 - 2004
Senior
N-to-default swap
Plata despgubirii este declanat de al
N-lea eveniment de credit
Pentru primele N 1 evenimente de credit
nu se fac pli compensatorii
Dup aceast plat contractul este
terminat
De obicei n contract poate fi specificat i
plata maxim care poate fi primit de
cumprtorul de protecie
Banca A
Banca B
Libor + spread
+ depreciere
Cash flow
Activ suport
(obligaiune)
Pt preul instrumentului de credit la momentul t
Xt preul de exerciiu la momentul t, care este preul
obligaiunii la yield-ul (RYt + SS)
RYt yield-ul de referin la momentul t, de obicei
LIBOR sau yield-ul la titluri de stat
BYt yield-ul obligaiunii de referin la momentul t
SS spread-ul de exercitare a oiunii
Credit forward
FVt ( BYt RYt SS ) NP RF
Provider
Plat n caz de
eveniment
de credit
Credit linked
note
Obligaiune
AAA
+
Derivativ pe
risc de credit
LIBOR
+Y pb
Par
Obligaiune
AAA
Par
LIBOR+
X+Y pb
Plat n cez de
eveniment
de credit
Investitor
Reglementari
macroprudentiale
Reglementari macroprudentiale
- rezerva anticiclica de capital (1)
Aspecte conceptuale
urmrete prevenirea acumulrii de vulnerabiliti
Reglementari macroprudentiale
- rezerva anticiclica de capital (2)
Aspecte conceptuale
Dintre indicatorii macroprudeniali testai pentru
Credit-to-GDP GAP
Source: Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012, Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system.
Paper given at the 10th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College and Journal of Banking and 116
Finance, Dublin, Ireland, June 11-12
Source: Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012, Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system.
Paper given at the 10th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College and Journal of Banking and 117
Finance, Dublin, Ireland, June 11-12
13.0
12.3
12.5
14.1
15.9
17.5
12.5
19.2
22.7
15.7
CZ
-3.1
-3.8
-4.4
0.7
5.1
9.0
12.4
15.0
16.8
15.9
HU
2.1
1.4
-3.4
1.2
5.1
6.9
6.6
5.5
8.2
14.0
LT
LV
0.7
0.8
2.0
4.3
7.5
9.6
14.0
15.8
13.0
10.3
0.3
1.8
2.7
3.5
5.1
9.5
14.4
10.7
-0.3
-1.0
PL
-0.1
-1.1
-1.7
-1.7
-1.6
-2.4
-0.2
3.7
7.6
9.2
RO
-0.8
0.8
2.2
3.3
3.5
3.9
6.5
8.9
15.5
9.3
Credit-to-GDP GAP
would have provided a
strong signal of the
building up of financial
imbalances in a
number of countries
where a systemic
banking crisis did not
occur (for instance BG,
CZ) FALSE ALARM
STUDIU DE CAZ
Nivelul optim al creditarii
119
Level suggested by economic fundamentals identification based on a country panel estimation (Kiss
et al., 2006; Egert et al., 2006; Gersl and Seidler, 2011)
Source: Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012, Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system.
Paper given at the 10th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College and Journal of Banking and 120
Finance, Dublin, Ireland, June 11-12
We observed that:
Source: Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012, Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system.
Paper given at the 10th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College and Journal of Banking and 121
Finance, Dublin, Ireland, June 11-12
Definition:
we consider the optimal credit growth to be a nonaccelerating credit risk, which implies a steady state for
provisions flow
Source: Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012, Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system.
Paper given at the 10th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College and Journal of Banking and 122
Finance, Dublin, Ireland, June 11-12
Basic idea:
Assumptions
Source: Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012, Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system.
Paper given at the 10th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College and Journal of Banking and 123
Finance, Dublin, Ireland, June 11-12
Source: Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012, Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system.
Paper given at the 10th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College and Journal of Banking and 124
Finance, Dublin, Ireland, June 11-12
Identification strategy
Reverse engineering
the
fitting
Source: Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012, Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system.
Paper given at the 10th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College and Journal of Banking and 125
Finance, Dublin, Ireland, June 11-12
126
M1
M2
M3
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-10%-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Source: Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Moinescu, 2012, Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system.
Paper given at the 10th INFINITI Conference on International Finance, Trinity College and Journal of Banking and
Finance, Dublin, Ireland, June 11-12
127
Reglementari macroprudentiale
- limitarea expunerilor mari (1)
Reglementari macroprudentiale
- limitarea expunerilor mari (2)
Reglementari macroprudentiale
- limitarea expunerilor mari (3) Studiul de caz
Reglementari macroprudentiale
- limitarea expunerilor mari (4) -