14-15 MTT Transfer Technology 28102014

MTT
Managementul transferului de
tehnologie
Masterat - Managementul afacerilor prin
proiecte
2014 2015
Semestrul I
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Cuprins
Transfer of technology
World Bank World Development Indicators Science &
Technology
Difuzia tehnologica metode
Digital divide definitie, descriere, prezent, rapoarte
internationale
Atenuarea decalajului digital Cazul Romaniei
Alte decalaje competente digitale
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Transferul de tehnologie si decalajele economice

Decalajele tehnologice ale rilor CEE pot fi diminuate prin activiti proprii de cercetaredezvoltare i inovare (CDI) sau prin transferul de tehnologii din rile dezvoltate.
Ambele sunt la fel de importante pentru creterea productivitii firmelor i, n consecin,
convergena nivelurilor de dezvoltare ntre rile europene. n prezent, pentru statele cu
dezvoltare medie, majoritatea cunotinelor tehnologice (80-90%) provin din surse externe. Din
acest motiv, transferul de tehnologie este un element vital n ncercarea de reducere a decalajelor.
Dealtfel, mari organizaii economice precum UNCTAD i OECD au recunoscut n repetate rnduri
aceast cauzalitate, n studiile lor.
Transfer tehnologic - introducerea sau achizitionarea in circuitul economic a tehnologiilor si utilajelor
specifice, echipamentelor si instalatiilor rezultate din cercetare, in vederea obtinerii unor procese,
produse si servicii noi sau imbunatatite, cerute de piata sau prin care se adopta un comportament
inovativ, inclusiv activitatea de a disemina informatii, a explica, a transfera cunostinte, a acorda
consultanta si a comunica cu persoane care nu sunt experti in problema despre rezultatele
cercetarii fundamentale, aplicative si precompetitive intr-un asemenea mod incat sa creasca sansa
aplicarii unor astfel de rezultate, cu conditia sa existe un proprietar al rezultatelor.
Transferul tehnologic se poate realiza pe diferite ci, principalele modaliti fiind investiiile
strine directe (ISD), importurile de componente, subansamble i bunuri de capital,
contractele de liceniere, alianele i colaborrile dintre firme i altele.
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State lider n domeniul tehnologiilor de vrf

Clasamente - competitivitate
WEF World Competitiveness Report
2014-2015: Switzerland, Singapore,
United States, Finland, Germany, Japan,
Hong Kong SAR, Netherlands, Sweden,
United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark,
Romania (59 din 144)
IMD Global Competitiveness yearbook

2014:
United States, Switzerland,
Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, Sweden,
Germany, Canada, UAE, Denmark,
Norway,... Romania (55 din 60)
KAM
Knowledge
Assessment
Methodology: KEI Sweden, Finland,
Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, New
Zealand, Canada, Germany, Australia,
Switzerland, Ireland, United States,
Romania (44 din 146 in 2012)
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Clasamente specializate:
Networked Readiness Index 2014: Finland, Singapore,
Sweden, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, United
States, Hong Kong SAR, United Kingdom, Korea,
Luxembourg, Germany, Denmark, Romania (75
din 144)
Global Innovation Index 2014 : Switzerland, United
Kingdom, Sweden, Finland, Netherlands, United
States, Singapore, Denmark, Luxembourg Norway,
Hong Kong Romania (55 din 143)
WIR World Investment Report 2014 (INVESTING IN THE
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): AN ACTION
PLAN)
Human Development Report 2014 Sustaining Human
Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building
Resilience:
Norway
Australia
Switzerland
Netherlands United States Germany New Zealand
Canada Singapore Denmark Romania (54 din
187)
La nivel european:
The Europe 2020 Competitiveness Report:

Romania in pozitia 26 sau 27
Innovation Union Scoreboard (IUS) 2014: Romania

in pozitia 26
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The Europe 2020 Competitiveness Report: Building

a More Competitive Europe
Following the well established methodology the World Economic
Forum uses to analyse and measure competitiveness, this Report

researches and monitors to what extent the EU is making progress to
achieve the competitiveness goals set in its Europe 2020 Strategy to
achieve smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. In addition to a set
of country-specific analyses that points out individual competitiveness
strengths and weaknesses for all 27 Member States and six acceding
and candidate countries, overall the Report finds that:
In comparative terms, the EU tends to perform better than other
advanced economies in ensuring inclusive and sustainable societies...
... but lags behind in terms of becoming a smarter place, hindering
therefore its capacity to shift towards truly differentiated, higher value
added activities and sustain its economic competitiveness.
A more nuanced analysis shows that in terms of inclusion, Europe
provides better social cohesion policies but fails to provide the right
conditions for gainful employment for large shares of its population...
... and underperforms in every single pillar that builds a smarter,
knowledge-intensive society.
Europe 2020 Competitiveness Report

Framework
The aggregate data for the EU masks large national disparities. A tale
of four very different Europes emerges and shows the important
competitiveness divide in the EU, with the Nordic countries leading
the way internationally and several southern, central and eastern
European countries falling behind... ... as well as most accession and
candidate countries.
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The competitiveness divide in Europe (2012 report) Mapping

the relationship between smart, inclusive and sustainable
Europe - Complementing rather than competing forces
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Romania in the EU competitiveness report 2012

Romania ranks 26th overall, with a relatively better performance in the area of sustainable growth
(23rd) thanks to a comparatively acceptable level of renewable energy production (9th) and CO2
intensity (16th).
- it attains the lowest performance in the EU in the smart category (27th).
- Romania trails almost all EU economies in most of the pillars, with only a few relatively better
results in the labour market and employment pillar where it ranks 20th. Romanias labour market is
flexible (ranking 10th in terms of hiring and firing practices), with a relatively strong relationship
between pay and productivity (14th) and an above average participation of women in the private
sector (12th).
-In terms of smart growth, the performance of Romania shows that the country still needs to
concentrate on developing sound institutions and market structures before it will become as
competitive as the most advanced economies.
Romania ranks only 26th in the enterprise environment pillar, and 27th in the digital agenda and
innovation pillars.
Despite a positive entrepreneurial attitude (6th), improvements need to be made on the competition
front (25th), the development of clusters (27th) and availability of finance (19th) in order to generate
a more conducive business environment.
Also, performance on the digital agenda and the innovative Europe pillars needs to be reinforced.
Romanias ranking is 27th on both, with few specific indicators ranking above the 20th position.
Taking a holistic approach to building up different areas of development is necessary to enable
Romania to close the gap between its competitiveness and European targets.
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IUS Innovation Union Scoreboard 2014

EU Member States innovation performance
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RIS Regional Innovation Scoreboard 2014
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IUS Innovation Union Scoreboard 2014

EU Member States growth performance
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Progress since the launch of the Europe 2020 strategy
The grey coloured columns show performance in 2010 as measured using the IUS 2013 set of indicators.
The change in innovation performance between 2010 and 2012 is equal to the percentage change between the innovation indexes
for 2010 and 2012 as shown on the vertical axis.
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The Global Information

Technology Report 2014
The 13th edition of The Global Information Technology Report is released at a
time when economies need to solidify the recovery of the past year and
leave the worst financial and economic crisis of the past 80 years behind.
Developed economies need to sustain their incipient economic recovery
and find new areas of growth and employment creation; emerging and
developing economies need to build their resilience against turbulence in
the markets and foster their innovation potential in order to sustain the
rapid economic growth they experienced in the past decade.
Against this backdrop, information and communication technologies (ICTs) - in
their role as key enablers of innovation and new employment
opportunitiesare drawing more attention than ever before. As the
benefits of ICTs increasingly materialize into tangible assets, building and
strengthening digital ecosystems becomes increasingly important.
The Global Information Technology Report 2014 features the latest results of the
NRI, offering an overview of the current state of ICT readiness in the world.
This years coverage includes a record number of 148 economies,
accounting for over 98 percent of global GDP. In addition, it features a
number of essays that inquire into the rewards and risks accruing from big
data, an unprecedented phenomenon in terms of the volume, velocity, and
variety of sources of the creation of new data. These essays also advise on
the changes that organizations, both public and private, will need to adopt
in order to manage, make sense of, and obtain economic and social value
from this vast quantity of newly generated data.
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The Global Information Technology Report 2014

Overall, developed economies are striving to return to higher levels of competitiveness while fighting
the stubbornly high levels of unemployment, especially among youth; at the same time, developing
and emerging economies are focusing on innovation as a prerequisite to sustain the high economic
growth rates they have experienced in the past decade and leapfrog toward higher levels of economic
and social prosperity.
The Report has accompanied and monitored ICT advances over the last decade as well as raising
awareness of the importance of ICT diffusion and usage for long-term competitiveness and societal
well-being.
The role that ICT can play to support economic growth and the creation of high quality jobs has never
drawn so much attention and research. There had been some initial concerns about the risk, in some
developed economies, that ICTs could accelerate the delocalization of certain economic activities
toward developing countries. But the benefits of ICTs are now widely recognized everywhere as an
important source of efficiency gains for companies that will allow them to optimize their production
function and liberalize resources toward other productive investments. Moreover, ICTs are also
increasingly recognized as a key source of innovation that can generate increased economic growth
and new sources of high-value-added jobs. This ability to innovate is essential in the current
information revolution that is transforming economic and social transactions in our societies.
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Global Information Technology Report 2013 Measuring digitization

Digitization - the mass adoption of connected digital
services by consumers, enterprises, and governments is far more than a disruptive wave washing over
isolated industries.
Specifically, the analysis reveals that an increase of
10% in a countrys digitization score drives a 0.75%
growth in its GDP per capita.
That same 10% boost in digitization leads to a 1.02 %
drop in a states unemployment rate.
These benefits grow as a country moves along the
digitization continuum - in other words, increased
digitization yields improving returns. The productivity
improves; some jobs get replaced by technologies;
and lower-value-added, labor-intensive jobs go
overseas to emerging markets where labor is cheaper.
On a sector-by-sector basis, it is seen the same effect
in highly digitized industries such as financial services
and manufacturing.
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EXTRACTING VALUE FROM BIG DATA

Data have always had strategic value, but with the magnitude of In short, almost any imaginable human interaction can be captured
data available today - and our capability to process them - they and studied within the realm of big data. Big data has arrived. It is
have become a new form of asset class. In a very real sense, data changing our lives and changing the way we do business. But
are now the equivalent of oil or gold. And today we are seeing a succeeding with big data requires more than just data. Data-based
data boom rivaling the Texas oil boom of the 20th century and value creation requires the identification of patterns from which
the San Francisco gold rush of the 1800s. It has spawned an predictions can be inferred and decisions made. Businesses need to
entire support industry and has attracted a great deal of business decide which data to use. The data each business owns might be as
press in recent years.
different as the businesses themselves; these data range from log
This new asset class of big data is commonly described by what files and GPS data to customer- or machine-to-machine data. Each
we call the three Vs. Big data is high volume, high velocity, and business will need to select the data source it will use to create
includes a high variety of sources of information. Next to those value. Moreover, creating this value will require the right way of
traditional three Vs we could add a fourth: value. This is what dissecting and then analyzing those data with the right analytics. It
everyone is looking for, and this is why big data today gets so will require knowing how to separate valuable information from
much attention. In the quest for value, the challenge facing us is hype. This world of big data has also become a source of concern.
how to reduce the complexity and unwieldiness of big data so The consequences of big data for issues of privacy and other areas
of society are not yet fully understood. Some prominent critics,
that it becomes truly valuable.
Big data can take the form of structured data such as financial such as Jaron Lanier call on us to be cautious about readily believing
transactions or unstructured data such as photographs or blog any result created by the wisdom of the crowd. Moreover,
applications of big data in military intelligence have created a
posts.
growing concern for privacy around the world. Indeed, we are now
It can be crowd-sourced or obtained from proprietary data living in a world where anything and everything can be measured.
sources. Big data has been fueled by both technological advances Data could become a new ideology. We are just at the beginning
(such as the spread of radio-frequency identification, or RFID, of a long journey where, with the proper principles and guidelines,
chips) and social trends (such as the widespread adoption of we should be able to collect, measure, and analyze more and more
social media).
information about everyone and everything in order to make better
Our collective discussions, comments, likes, dislikes, and decisions, individually and collectively.
networks of social connections are now all data, and their scale is
massive. What did we search for? What did we read? Where did
we go? With whom do we associate? What do we eat? What do
we purchase?
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Managing the Risks and Rewards of Big Data

Organizations are awakening to the reality that an overwhelming amount of highvolume, wide-variety, and high-velocity data creates three key trends:
Big data leverages previously untapped data sources to liberate information from
places where it was previously hidden.
Big data management requires automation wherever possible, because volume and
complexity eliminate the ability of humans to intervene and reprogram processes
in real time.
Big data forces us to create adaptable, less fragile data systems because the sheer
variety of structured and unstructured data breaks the old computational and
transactional ways of writing logic.
These trends create two main challenges:
Big data holds unseen patterns, which need to be visualized using analytics tools and
techniques. Insights gained must be used at the right time, in the right context,
and with the right approach.
The challenge of systematically discovering, capturing, governing, and securing everlarger amounts of data is much more complicated than the relatively simple
problem of marshaling storage and computational resources.
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Networked Readiness Index (NRI)
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Sketching the new digital divide

The Networked Readiness Index (NRI) aims to
measure the ability of countries to leverage
information and communication technologies (ICTs)
for improved competitiveness and well being. This
ability depends on multiple factors, as detailed in this
chapter and reflected in the comprehensive
framework underpinning the NRI.
The NRI results confirm the presence of the digital
divide between advanced economies on the one hand
and emerging and developing economies on the
other.
- an intensity map of the world, with economies colorcoded based on their NRI overall score measured on a
1-to-7 scale, with best- and worst-performing
economies appearing in dark green and red,
respectively. The contrast between advanced
economies and the rest of the world is stark and
betrays the inability or limited capacity of a vast
majority of countries to fully reap the benefits of ICTs.
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The digital divide in the 10 pillars of the NRI. Of the

10 pillars, infrastructure and digital content and
individual usage are the two where the score
differentials between advanced economies and
the rest of the world are the biggest (2.7).
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Penetration of various technologies, 2011
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Environment subindex and pillars

Usage subindex and pillars
Readiness subindex and pillars

Impact subindex and pillars
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Romania
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Technological progress in developing countries
= improvement in the ways that goods and services are produced, marketed, and brought to market
- plays a central role in spurring income growth and reducing poverty. In fact, it is at the very
heart of human progress and development.
- has narrowed the technology gap between rich and poor countries has narrowed, but the gap is
still wide
reflects adoption of pre-existing technologies rather than at-the-frontier inventions

has been strongly driven by globalization (trade, FDI, contact with migrant populations)
is constrained by weak domestic capacity to absorb technology; issues include low technical
literacy
can be facilitated by appropriate policies
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Measuring technological progress

Measuring technology directly is difficult. Unlike pencils and pens, the physical presence of technology
cannot be easily counted. The most common measure of technological progress is growth in total
factor productivity (TFP) - the relative efficiency with which an economy produces goods and
services given a certain quantity of labor and capital. In TFP terms, technological progress since
the early 1990s has been strongest in East Asia, South Asia, and developing countries in Europe. It
has been much weaker in Latin America, the Middle-East and Africa. TFP is an indirect measure
because it ascribes to technology all income growth that cannot be explained by investment and
increases in labor supply. The report goes beyond the common TFP measure to assess
technological progress more directly - by measuring the quantity and quality of inputs and
outputs.
The World Bank has developed a summary index of technology that includes a much wider range of
indicators than included in other technology indexes. This index is derived from three sub indexes
that measure four dimensions of technological achievement:
The extent of scientific invention and innovation

The diffusion of older technologies
The diffusion of newer technologies
The intensity with which foreign technologies are employed in domestic production.
According to these measures, technological progress in developing countries between the 1990s and
2000s has been very strong. But the technology gap between rich and poor countries remains
large and developing countries capacity to absorb technology is still weak.
Sursa: World Bank report: Global Economic Prospects 2008: Technology Diffusion in the Developing World,
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The Technology Gap between Rich and Poor

countries
While the level of technology used in all countries has
increased rapidly, it has done so quicker in
developing countries and quickest in low-income
countries. (ATTN: the initial level of technology in
lower-income countries was much lower to begin
with). There is strong evidence of catch-up
between middle-income and high-income
countries.
Despite the rapid pace of technological progress, the
technology gap between high-income and
developing countries remains wide, with
developing countries employing only a quarter of
the level of technology in developed countries.
Levels of technological achievement in highincome countries are more than twice those in
upper-middle income countries. This group, in
turn, has levels of achievement that are more
than double those in low-income countries.
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Technological achievement digital divide

Technological achievement
-can also vary widely within a country. Main
cities and leading sectors often use more
sophisticated technologies than the rest of
the economy.
Over time, the digital divide between rural

and urban
Another key finding of the report is that
technological progress in developing countries
almost universally reflects adoption or adaptation
of pre-existing technologies rather than at-thefrontier inventions. This is not the case in rich
countries.
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Technological achievement digital divide

- developing countries are scarcely active at the global technological frontier. This is mainly because
many developing countries lack the critical mass of technological competencies necessary to
participate at the global technology frontier. This does not mean that top-level scientists do not
exist in these countries. Many people from developing countries perform cutting-edge research
in developed countries. In the United States, 2.5 of the 21.6 million working scientists and
engineers were born in developing countries.
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How have various pre-existing technologies spread in

developing countries? The picture is somewhat different for older
technologies than it is for newer ones.
The major innovations of the past 200 years - such as steam power, electricity, and telephones exist to some degree in virtually every country. But access to these older technologies varies
widely between countries, depending on both the technological absorptive capacity of the
country and the affordability of the technology.
While countries of the former Soviet bloc enjoy near-universal access to electricity, in Sub-Saharan
Africa, only 8 percent of the rural population has access to electricity, and just over half the
urban population. Moreover, the quality and regularity of the service is low.
Some newer technologies such as mobile phones and broadband Internet have penetrated
developing countries much faster than older technologies. The near-doubling of mobile phone
ownership in low-income countries between 2000 and 2004 may be of great value too poor
people in rural areas constrained by poor infrastructure. For example, Teba Bank in South Africa
has developed a smart card that uses mobile phone technology to provide low-cost electronic
banking services to low-income customers.
Internet bandwidth consumption and the number of broadband subscribers have more than
doubled from 1999 to 2004 in both middle- and low-income countries. But personal
computers - more expensive than a shared Internet connection such as through an Internet
caf - have spread more slowly. Three-quarters of low-income countries have 15 or fewer
personal computers per 1,000 people, and a quarter have fewer than five.
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Technological progress
Technological progress can contribute to development in two broad ways:
By lowering costs, improving quality, creating new products, and helping reach new
markets.
By using relatively simple skills for far-reaching development benefits.
For example, the simple skills needed to build rainwater collection systems can greatly
improve access to clean drinking water and reduce the incidence of diarrhea, a major
cause of infant mortality.
While technological progress can bring great benefits, it can also be disruptive when these
benefits are not evenly distributed.
Technological progress may benefit some classes of workers over others. It can also mean
significant short-term losses for competitors who are still using older technologies. But
disruptions caused by technological progress can benefit economies by spurring
domestic competition.
For example, the introduction of mobile phone technology in several developing countries
has brought in significant competition not only in the telecommunications sector but
also in banking and other information-sensitive sectors.
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Constraints on developing countries capacity to absorb

technology
Successful adoption and adaptation of foreign technologies depends on each
developing countrys capacity to absorb these technologies.
Overall, technological absorptive capacity in the developing world is still weak, and
needs to be strengthened.
According to a World Bank report, Global Economic Prospects 2008: Technology
Diffusion in the Developing World, there has been considerable progress in the
macroeconomic environment and financial structure and intermediation in
developing countries - both critical for healthy technological absorption. But the
capacity of developing countries to absorb technologies has been largely limited by:
low technical literacy
the uneven spread of older technologies such as electricity and telephones
low penetration of technologies in rural areas.
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The quality of education

There has been significant progress in developing countries in literacy rates over the past 15 years. But too
often, the quality of education being delivered in developing countries remains low.
Large proportions of students officially classified as literate in middle-income countries fail to meet OECD
literacy standards.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, despite enrollment rates of close to 100 percent, fewer than half of grade six
students in some countries are deemed literate.
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Capacity to absorb technology

For example: in India, telephone penetration
rates in urban centers are 8 times those in
rural regions.
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Within sectors, the most

productive firms tend to have
productivity levels that are five
times those of the average firm.
This suggests that if their
technologies were adopted by
other firms (and their work force
had adequate skills), GDP could
be increased by between four
and five times.
33
Capacity to absorb technology

While many countries have improved
technological
achievement,
relatively few countries have
improved
their
technological
absorptive capacity by more than 10
percent between 1990 and 2000.
The most negative score was by Zimbabwe, mainly
reflecting the recent deterioration in
macroeconomic and governance conditions.
Weak domestic absorptive capacity will

probably hinder future technological
progress in developing countries.
Unless steps are taken to raise basic
competencies and invest in local
technology dissemination networks,
many developing countries may not
be able to master anything but the
simplest of future technologies.
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Total factor productivity (TFP)

TFP was derived as the residual after accounting for the contribution of labor
and capital to aggregate output.
It is well accepted in the economics literature that total factor productivity
depends on the availability of knowledge.
Romer (1986, 1990) and Lucas (1988) argued that TFP levels depend on the
stock of knowledge or human capital.
Grossman and Helpman (1991) postulated that imported goods embodied
foreign technology and hence imports would lead to increases in TFP
Coe and Helpman (1995) found that for a sample of developed countries both
domestic and foreign R&D had significant impact on TFP.
TFP is the main driver of long run productivity growth
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Measuring productivity growth

The measure most commonly used is labor productivity because it is easy
to calculate and interpret. It captures how much output is produced, on
average, by each unit of labor employed in production.
Labor productivity growth thus gauges the increase in the amount (or value)
of output generated per worker. Another measure is total factor
productivity (TFP) growth, which refers to increases in output not
attributable to increases in labor or capital inputs.
TFP growth captures efficiency gains from the technological progress
embodied in firm-level improvements, such as better production
management methods, better customer support, and better distribution
channels for the delivery of goods and services. Both labor and TFP growth
may be estimated for the economy as a whole, for a sector of the economy,
or for an individual firm.
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In advanced economies especially, productivity growth will

moderate in 2011
http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/
The world economy returned to solid productivity growth in 2010 as GDP in most
countries recovered strongly from the 2008/09 financial and economic crisis, while
employment lagged behind. Advanced regions left recession firmly in the rearview
mirror. Emerging economies continue to drive both global growth and global
productivity growth.
The U.S. economy remained on a higher productivity growth path than Europe in 2010, but their
productivity growth rates may converge, at least temporarily, in 2011 as U.S. employment picks
up momentum. Global productivity growth will moderate slightly in 2011 as cyclical effects
abate.
Advanced economies saw solid labor-productivity growth in 2010 as they left recession firmly
behind. GDP bounced back strongly (from -3.3 percent in 2009 to 2.9 percent in 2010). The labor
market also recovered (employment growth was -2.2 percent in 2009, -0.1 percent in 2010) but
lagged behind GDP growth. The combination of these two factors produced an above trend
recovery in labor productivity growth, which reached 3.0 percent in 2010.
In 2011, labor productivity growth in advanced countries is projected to decelerate to 1.6 percent, as
the result of a slowdown in output growth to 2.3 percent while employment growth begins to
build momentum, growing at 0.7 percent.
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Total Factor Productivity trend continues to weaken

in advanced economies
Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth, which captures major drivers of efficiency like
technological and managerial improvements, has accounted for roughly a quarter
of total output growth worldwide in recent years. Factoring in such sources of
growth as improvement in labor-force skills and use of newer and more productive
equipment, TFP offers a more precise measure of efficiency than labor productivity
alone.
The trend in TFP growth has continuously weakened in advanced countries since the
early 1970s, dropping from almost 2 % in the early 1970s to less than 0.5% by the
end of the last decade.
The trend in TFP growth in emerging countries has strengthened a great deal between
1995 and 2005, when it reached up to 2%. However, in recent years the trend has
begun to reverse as transitional productivity effects appear to abate in some of the
major emerging economies. The stabilization of the long-term trend will depend on
the balance between new investment and the efficiency with which it is
implemented.
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Emerging economies continue to drive global

productivity growth
Productivity growth also recovered significantly in emerging economies in 2010,
especially in those regions that suffered most from the global crisis such as
developing Asia (excluding China and India), Latin America, Central and Eastern
Europe, and Russia and other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent
States.
o China and India are the largest and most dynamic economies in productivity terms, at 8.7 % and
5.4 % in 2010, respectively.
o Turkeys productivity growth jumped to 2.2% in 2010 from -5.2 % in 2009, mostly due to a strong
GDP bounce-back; employment also kept growing.
o Brazil continued to strengthen its productivity performance at 4% growth in 2010, outperforming
the Latin American region as a whole, which saw an increase of 3.2% in 2010.
o Russias productivity growth has recovered remarkably from a low of -6% in 2009 to 3.1 % in 2010.
But its underlying output and employment performance remains below the average of other
large emerging economies.
In 2011, growth in labor productivity in emerging economies is likely to remain just below 5.0%,
similar to 2010.
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Productivitys Contribution to Global Growth

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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe

and the Former Soviet Union (Declansarea/startul prosperitii - creterea productivitii n Europa
de Est i fosta Uniune Sovietic) 2008 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development - The World Bank ( 2008
Banca Internaional pentru Reconstrucie i Dezvoltare / Banca Mondial); autori: Asad Alam, Paloma Ans Casero, Faruk Khan,
Charles Udomsaph
Creterea productivitii este cel mai important

indicator unic al economiei sustenabile pe
termen lung.
Creterile de productivitate au sporit profitabilitatea
companiei. Cu profituri mai mari, ntreprinderile
sunt n msur s investeasc n noile tehnologii,
dezvoltarea de noi produse, extinderea pieelor,
angajand mai muli lucrtori, salarii mai mari,
simbunatatirea condiiilor de munc, precum i
creterea nivelului de trai. n acelai timp,
profituri mai mari, atunci cnd apar ntr-o pia
competitiv, ajuta la atragerea de noi
ntreprinderi i s impulsioneze inovaii
tehnologice, care puse in
vigoare, ajuta
ntreprinderile existente s devin mai eficiente.
Acest ciclu virtuos ridic eficiena economic
global i sporete creterea economic i
nivelul de trai.
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Msurarea creterii productivitii. Msura cea mai

frecvent utilizata este productivitatea muncii, pentru
c este uor s calculeze i s interpreteze. Surprinde
ct de multe ieiri sunt produse, n medie, de ctre
fiecare unitate de fora de munc angajat n
producia de cretere a productivitii muncii.
O alt msur este productivitatea total a factorilor (PTF)
de cretere, care se refer la o cretere a produciei ce
nu poate fi atribuita la o cretere a forei de munc
sau intrri de capital. Creterea PTF releva cresterea
eficienei generate de progresul tehnologic ncorporat
n mbuntiri la nivel de firm, cum ar fi metodele
de producie, o mai bun gestionare, o mai bun
asisten pentru clieni, i canale de distribuie mai
bune pentru livrarea de bunuri i servicii. Att forta de
munc i PTF pot fi estimate pentru economie n
ansamblul su, pentru un sector al economiei, sau
pentru o firm individual.
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Tema de discutie: Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in

Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
Productivity growth is the single most important indicator of an economys long-term
health. Increases in productivity enhance enterprise profitability. With higher profits,
enterprises are able to invest in new technologies, develop new products, expand
markets, hire more workers, pay higher wages, enhance working conditions, and raise
living standards. At the same time, higher profits, when they occur in a competitive
market, help attract new firms and spur technological innovations, which can then
force existing enterprises to become more efficient. This virtuous cycle raises overall
economic efficiency and boosts growth and living standards.
Countries: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic,
Estonia, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova,
Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkey,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan
Sursa: Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, 2008 The International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank; authors: Asad Alam, Paloma Ans Casero, Faruk Khan, Charles
Udomsaph
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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in Eastern

Europe and the Former Soviet Union
The Region shows great diversity in
productivity
performance
and
progress in reform. Two broad
groups of countries emerge from
the analysis: the more productive,
early reformers (the EU10 and
Turkey) and the less productive, late
reformers (most of the CIS and the
SEE).
The main challenge in the EU10 and
Turkey is to boost innovation to
compete successfully in global
markets, while the primary
challenge in the CIS and SEE is to
accelerate reallocation to address
the legacy of the transition.
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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in Eastern

Europe and the Former Soviet Union
The countries of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet
Union (the Region, hereafter) experienced a
productivity surge over 19992005 that drove up
living standards and reduced poverty.
Part of the productivity gains also derived from major
structural changes in the economies of the Region, as
resources were progressively shifted to higherproductivity uses in response to changed economic
and institutional incentives. The transition to a
market economy involved a substantial reallocation of
factors (labor and capital) across sectors. Many
workers moved out of manufacturing and into services,
a sector that had been underdeveloped under central
planning.
But most of the productivity surge was driven by firm
dynamics. From a microeconomic perspective,
productivity growth may be decomposed into three
main sources: productivity gains within existing firms,
the reallocation of resources across existing firms, and
firm turnover (the entry of new, more-productive firms
and the exit of obsolete firms).
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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe

and the Former Soviet Union
Labor supply and demand factors explain the small contribution of labor input to total
output growth. A shrinking working-age population, out-migration, declines in labor
participation, and high unemployment rates stifled labor supply, thereby contributing
to disappointing labor outcomes. Indeed, the employment rate has continued to fall in
many countries since 1998. While the employment rate is generally higher in the CIS
(relative to the EU10, where the rate is short of the Lisbon target of 70%), many jobs in
the CIS are in low-productivity occupations. These constraints are compounded by
deficiencies in the higher education system, which worsen skill mismatches, and
rigidities in labor market regulations, which make it difficult for firms to hire workers
and slow the pace of the reallocation of workers.
The small role of capital accumulation in the Regions growth partly reflects inefficiencies
and low investments in new vintages of capital. In the context of a declining labor
force, sustaining per capita income growth will depend on capital deepening
(increasing the physical capital per worker) and on additional productivity gains. The
small impact of capital accumulation on output growth, particularly in the CIS, also
reflects adjustments in the corporate sector that have delayed new investments and
led to the disposal of old capital stock.
In the EU10, investment rates have not been low, but depreciation rates are high, and
infrastructure provision still lags considerably relative to the EU15. Even more critical
than the quantity of capital investments is the quality of the investments. The EU10
countries have invested the most in ICT. The use and production of ICT have propelled
labor productivity growth.
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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe and

the Former Soviet Union
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Rapid integration brought many benefits for growth but also

created vulnerabilities for some of the EU10. The catching-up
process has relied on significant capital deepening, productivity
gains, and better education of the labor force
World Bank. 2014. Strengthening recovery in Central and Eastern Europe : EU11 regular economic report. EU11 regular economic
report. Washington, DC : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-reportstrengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europe
Rapid integration brought many benefits for growth but also created vulnerabilities for some of the EU10. The
catching-up process has relied on significant capital deepening, productivity gains, and better education of
the labor force
11 European Union (EU) member states that joined after 2004 (excluding Cyprus and Malta)Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (North); the Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic, (Continental); and Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia (South). The term New Member States (NMS) or
alternatively the EU10 refers to the eight countries that joined the European in 2004 (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia,
Slovenia) and the two that joined in 2006 (Bulgaria and Romania).
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47
Tema de discutie - The HDI 2001 Report Making New

Technologies Work for Human Development
It is about how people can create and use technology to improve their lives. It is also
about forging new public policies to lead the revolutions in information and
communications technology and biotechnology in the direction of human development.
-it looks specifically at how new technologies will affect developing countries and poor people. Many
people fear that these technologies may be of little use to the developing world - or that they might
actually widen the already savage inequalities between North and South, rich and poor. Without
innovative public policy, these technologies could become a source of exclusion, not a tool of
progress. The needs of poor people could remain neglected, new global risks left unmanaged. But
managed well, the rewards could be greater than the risks.
The technology divide does not have to follow the income divide. Throughout history,
technology has been a powerful tool for human development and poverty reduction. The
2001 Report demonstrates that:
People all over the world have high hopes that new technologies will lead to healthier lives, greater
social freedoms, increased knowledge and more productive livelihoods;
The 20th centurys unprecedented gains in advancing human development and eradicating poverty
came largely from technological breakthroughs;
In the network age, every country needs the capacity to understand and adapt global technologies for
local needs; and
Policy, not charity, will determine whether new technologies become a tool for human development
everywhere.
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Todays Technological Transformations Combine With Globalization

to Create the Network Age
Todays technological advances are faster (Moores law) and more fundamental (breakthroughs in
genetics). They are driving down costs (computing and communications) at a pace never before seen.
Leading these transformations are the accelerated developments in information and communications
technology, biotechnology and just-emerging nanotechnology.
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The uneven diffusion of technology is nothing newthere have long

been huge differences among countries
The uneven diffusion of information and communications technology the digital divide has caught the attention of world
leaders. Bridging this divide is now a global objective. But the uneven diffusion of technology is nothing new. There have long been
huge differences among countries.
As a result the worlds 200 or so countries face the challenges of human development in the network age starting from very different
points. The technology achievement index introduced in this Report presents a snapshot of each countrys average achievements in
creating and diffusing technology and in building human skills to master new innovations.
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http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161
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Internet users (per 100 people)

Internet users (per 100 people)
100
96
90
80
75,28
70
60
50
50
44,02
40
36,6
39,93
35,57
32,42
30
28,3
21,5
20
24,66
15
10
8,9
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
ROU
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1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
EUU
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2003
WLD
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Iceland
52
http://storage0.dms.mpinteractiv.ro/media/401/341/5531/7908584/80/34-35-poster.jpg
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Date statistice - EUROSTAT

Internet use: Never in 2012 - Percentage of individuals from All Individuals
60
48
50
42
40
42
37
30
22
20
36
35
34
32
30
29
28
27
26
24
19
19
18
18
17
15
15
15
10
10
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Date statistice - Internet use Individuals NEVER

GEO/TIME
2005
EU28
EU27
Euro area
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Croatia
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
UK
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2006
43
44
39
63
14
29
36
55
73
50
62
64
51
61
29
60
57
18
40
58
63
48
42
23
12
28
2007
42
42
34
71
49
10
26
34
42
65
47
46
59
62
45
54
27
52
58
16
34
52
60
74
43
41
18
10
29
2008
37
37
36
29
65
46
12
23
32
35
62
43
34
56
54
56
39
49
20
46
51
13
28
48
56
69
39
35
17
15
22
2009
33
33
32
26
57
33
12
20
26
32
56
38
26
54
50
54
34
43
16
37
49
11
25
44
54
64
40
25
13
9
19
2010
30
30
30
20
53
33
11
19
26
30
53
36
25
47
45
48
31
38
11
36
40
10
25
39
50
62
33
22
15
7
15
2011
27
27
26
18
51
28
9
17
22
27
52
32
20
42
41
45
29
35
8
32
36
8
23
35
46
57
28
17
11
7
13
2012
24
24
24
14
46
24
7
16
20
21
45
29
18
39
39
41
27
33
8
28
30
7
18
33
41
54
29
20
9
5
11
22
22
22
15
42
19
6
15
19
18
42
27
15
35
37
36
24
30
6
26
29
6
17
32
34
48
28
18
7
5
10
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Individuals - Internet use NEVER

Percentage of individuals from all
individuals - Coefficient of variation (20052012)
60
50
40
53,54
51,57 53,17
46,66 47,63
42,18
39,66 41,48
30
20
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
55
EU28 in 2007-2012 and projections Internet use

once a week
Frequency of Internet access: "never" in EU28

40
EU28 Projections
40
37
35
35
33
30
30
27
24
25
40,919e-0,105x
22
y=
R = 0,9988
% of individuals
30
25
22
20
18,27
15
20
16,63
10
15
5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
10
2007
2008
2009
EU28
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2010
2011
2012
Expon. (EU28)
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actual
logistic
constant growth rate
exponential
56
Romania in 2007-2012 and projections Internet use

once a week
Frequency of Internet access: "never" in RO
Romania projections
80
80
70
69
69
62
60
RO: y =
R = 0,9759
57
54
50
48
EU28: y = 40,919e-0,105x
R = 0,9988
64
60
74,544e-0,069x
% of individuals
64
40
74
70
62
57
50
54
48
47,12
40
40,57
30
20
30
10
20
0
2007
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2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
EU28
Romania
actual
logistic
Expon. (EU28)
Expon. (Romania)
constant growth rate
exponential
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Last Internet use: in last 3 months - Percentage of
individuals 2012
100

individuals 2012
90
91
90
85
80
94
80
75
70
61
78
70
60
60
61
49
50
49
50
50
40
50
40
32
30
30
17
20
21
20
10
10
0
0
Individuals with no or
low formal education
Individuals with
medium formal
education
European Union (28 countries)
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Individuals with high

formal education
Individual living
in a household
with income in
first quartile
Romania
Individual living Individual living

in a household in a household
with income in with income in
second quartile third quartile
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Individual living
in a household
with income in
fourth quartile
Romania
58

Individuals - Internet use in 2012 - Last Internet
use: in last 3 months - % of individuals
individuals 2012
120
95
100
98
80
60
100
74
83
46
40
20
90
85
54
53
68 49
95
77
80
70
43
84
74
63
60
15
90
51
56
50
39
40
30
20
34
20
10
0
16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74
years old years old years old years old years old years old
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Romania
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Romania
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Defining a 21st century education

By Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009
schools must provide students

with a broader set of 21st
century skills to thrive in a
rapidly evolving, technologysaturated world
21st century skills movement:
soft skills, life skills, key skills,
inter-personal skills, workforce
skills, non-cognitive skills
it is possible to examine trends
that have change the demands of
work and life in the recent past
and continue to do so today. The
most important are automation,
globalization, workplace change,
and policies increasing personal
responsibility, demography
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Between 1969 and 1999, the mix of jobs in the economy changed
dramatically, with large increases in jobs that require better skills
and more education.
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The economists Frank Levy and Richard Murnane examined tasks performed on the job
by all workers over several decades. Over time, workers are performing fewer routine
tasks that can be better performed by computers while being called on to do more
complex thinking tasks like solving unfamiliar problems and interacting with others.
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Far more Americans say their jobs are intellectually challenging and meaningful than
they did several decades ago.
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Changes in the workplace, the larger economy, and society as a whole are
increasing the complexity of the environment people live in and demanding
greater skills of them. At the same time, people are being asked to shoulder a
greater burden of personal risk and responsibility for navigating that
environment, both on the job and in personal spheres like health care and
financial planning.
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Three out of four employers predict that broad competencies like critical thinking,
collaboration, and creativity will become even more important for job success in the
near future.
Communication skills Speak so others can
understand, listen actively,
read with understanding,
observe critically;
Interpersonal
skills
Cooperate with others,
resolve
conflict
and
negotiate;
Decision making skills Solve problems and make
decisions, use math to solve
problems and
communicate;
Lifelong learning skills:
Take responsibility for
learning, use information
and communications
technology.
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The Revised Blooms Taxonomy. Some argue that 21st century skills are closely
related to the Blooms Taxonomy often used by teachers to plan lessons. The
figure below summarizes the 2001 revised version.
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This chart compares interpersonal skills on two dimensions, the percentage of

employers who say the skill is very important and the percentage who say that
recent high school graduates are deficient in it. Written and oral
communications are the only two skills to score over 50 percent on both
dimensions.
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Romania, restul Europei si calculatorul

(http://storage0.dms.mpinteractiv.ro/media/401/341/5531/7908584/80/34-35-poster.jpg)
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Enterprise use of information technology, January 2011 (% of enterprises)

Computer skills of individuals, 2011 (% of individuals)
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Digital divide definitii, tipuri

OECDs definition: Gap between individuals, households,
businesses and geographic areas at different socioeconomic levels with regard both to their
opportunities to access ICTs and to their use of the
Internet for a wide variety of activities
In general terms, it refers to the gap between those with
access
to
information
and
communication
technologies (ICT) and those without. Initially the
term was used to indicate those who had access to
hardware (i.e. a Personal Computer) in comparison
with those who had not. As technologies evolved and
their use also changed qualitatively, the divide has
been seen as separating users from non-users, and
latterly, distinguishing different types of users. It is
clear that there is not just one digital divide but
multiple divides which relate to a variety of factors,
such as: gender; age; ethnic clustering; uncertainty
of living/financial conditions; work insecurity, and
social insecurity.
The international digital divide is closing as a steady fall in worldwide costs of
telephone and broadband Internet services has enabled a number of
developing countries to expand their access to information and
communication technology (ICT), the United Nations telecoms agency says
in a report released today. Measuring the Information Society 2012,
produced by the UN International Telecommunication Union (ITU), says that
developing countries now account for the lions share of market growth in
the mobile sector.
29/10/2014
-The term digital divide refers to the disparity in

accessing to the technologies and resources of the
information and communication. The digitalization of
the economy and the society may produce differences
and gaps amongst individuals, households, businesses,
and geographic areas, rich and poor countries.
- Measuring the digital divide involves a lot of criteria
concerning: network access, human capabilities,
knowledge and application, IT expertise, IT usage in
business sector. Also the way in which the
technological disparity is reckoned can vary in different
perspectives, all having a reasonable fundament.
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Tema de discutie - Teoria controlului total, al lucrurilor i oamenilor - Dac ai

posibilitatea de a prezice, este aproape evident c i se ofer n acelai timp i posibilitatea de a
cotrola.
Experimentele lui Albert-Lszl Barabsi arat c orice reea, de la cele de socializare, cele 5 bilioane de websiteuri, lanul trofic, afacerile i comerul,
evoluia aezrilor urbane, comportamentul uman, metabolismul proteinelor intracelulare, toate pot fi descrise prin aceleai legi matematice. Orice
reea este organizat n noduri-elementele sistemului i muchii sau linii- care reprezint interaciile dintre aceste elemente.
Totul a nceput n 1998, cnd Barabsi a avut ideea de a apela la site-ul Web al Universitii Notre Dame, unde era profesor i a putut experimenta pe
un numr de peste 300 000 de pagini web. Rezultatul su a fost surprinztor. Exista pn atunci o imagine democratic a reelelor, adic dei
distribuia link-urilor era aleatorie, majoritatea nodurilor aveau aproximativ acelai numr de link-uri. Aa cum n societatea uman indivizii sau
organizaiile reprezenta nodurile reelei, iar interaciunile sociale reprezenta muchiile sistemului, tot aa n WWW, nodurile ar fi reprezentate de
documentele HTML, iar muchiile ar fi reprezentate de link-uri. Fizicianul i colegii si au descoperit c erau sisteme n care doar cteva noduri
dominau. Site-uri ca Yahoo sau Google confiscau majoritatea link-urilor. Descoperiser existena a ceea ce au numit sisteme independente de
scal. Nu conta natura sistemului: celulele vii, Internetul, relaiile sexuale n Suedia, legturile actorilor de la Hollywood, toate se supun
unei legi-putere. Un numr mic de noduri hotrte totul: hub-urile. Teoria huburilor a lui Barabsi a fost folosit apoi de oncologi n
cercetrile pentru tratarea cancerului -pentru a nelege modul n care proteinele ajung s suprime o tumor, biologii au folosit-o pentru a determina
intele antibioticelor n reelele metabolice ale unor bacterii reszistente la medicamente, iar serviciile secrete pentru a identifica reelele teoriste.
Ce era i mai interesant ns avea s urmeze. n 2006 lui Barabsi i se ofer posibilitatea de a-i testa teoria pe ase milioane de abonai telefonici.
Echipa lui reuete s construiasc un algoritm prin care s identifice cu precizie utilizatorii care urmau s-i schimbe operatorul i, mai
mult, au obinut i localizarea apelantului!
Deci, pe lng descrierea sistemului, avem n plus predicie. Mai rmne ceva? Controlul. Pentru c, dac ai posibilitatea de a prezice, este
aproape evident c i se ofer n acelai timp i posibilitatea de a controla. Oprere general este c primele aplicaii vor fi n medicin.
Barabsi, de altfel, spune c unele boli sunt determinate exclusiv de lipsa controlului Dac eti capabil s exercii control la livel celular sau
neuronal, atunci ar fi posibil s vindeci boala, ne explic fizicianul Andrei Dorobanu.
Ideea c cineva ar putea controla i monitoriza n permanen micrile umane ar putea fi ns nfricotoare. Din aceast perspectiv,
fizicianul Barabsi spune: Controlul este un progres natural al procesului de nelegere. Dar controlul este o problem de voin, iar voina
poate fi controlat prin legi. Trebuie s ne strngem la un loc ca o societate i s decidem ct de departe l putem mpinge.
Albert-Lszl Barabsi: Fiecare avans tiinific are aplicaii benefice importante, dar poate fi, de asemenea, utilizat n mod abuziv. Acest lucru nu
este nou ne-am confruntat cu asta de la descoperirea energiei nucleare, la ingineria genetic. Aa este i aici: responsabilitatea omului de
tiin este de a comunica n mod clar impactul descoperirii sale societatea este cea care trebuie s i exercite controlul. De aceea am
scris o carte exact despre acest subiect, Bursts, dedicnd un capitol ntreg problemei vieii private i modului de aplicare a acestor descoperiri.
http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/
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Prognoz tehnologic (Technological

Forecasting - TF)
toate ncercrile intenionate i sistematice pentru a anticipa i a nelege direcia

potenial, rata, caracteristicile i efectele schimbrilor tehnologice, n special de
invenie, inovare, adoptare i utilizare
companiile mici depind de inovaii tehnologice pentru existena lor
marile companii au nevoie de TF, n mai multe forme pentru a:
Prioritiza C&D,
Planifica de dezvoltare de noi produse,
Asigura elaborarea deciziilor strategice privind acordarea de licene tehnologice,
societi mixte, etc.
guvernele folosesc studii prospective naionale pentru a evalua cursul i impactul
schimbrii tehnologice cu scopul efecturii de politici publice. Aceasta include
ceea ce este cunoscut sub numele de evaluare tehnologic (AT) sau analiz de
impact social, care examineaz efectele probabile pe termen lung ale dezvoltrii
tehnologice pe masur ce impactul acesteia se extinde n ntreaga societate.
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Families of Technological Forecasting Methods
families: Expert Opinion, Trend Analysis,

Monitoring & Intelligence, Modeling &
Simulation, Scenarios, Statistical, Descriptive,
Creativity, and Valuing/ Decision / Economics
Methods.
1) Expert Opinion; Delphi (iterative survey); Focus

Groups [panels, workshops]; Interviews;
Participatory Techniques
2) Trend Analysis; Trend Extrapolation [Growth Curve
Fitting]; Trend Impact Analysis; Precursor
Analysis; Long Wave Analysis
3) Monitoring and Intelligence Methods: Monitoring
[environmental scanning, technology watch];
Bibliometrics [research profiling; patent analysis,
text mining]
4) Statistical Methods: Correlation Analysis,
Demographics, Cross Impact Analysis, Risk
Analysis, Bibliometrics [research profiling; patent
analysis, text mining]
5) Scenarios: Scenarios [scenarios with consistency
checks; scenario management]; Scenariosimulation [gaming; interactive scenarios]; Field
Anomaly Relaxation Method [FAR]
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6) Modeling and Simulation: Agent Modeling, Cross Impact

Analysis, Sustainability Analysis [life cycle analysis], Causal
Models, Diffusion Modeling, Complex Adaptive System
Modeling (CAS) [Chaos]; Systems Simulation [System
Dynamics, KSIM]; Technological Substitution; Scenariosimulation [gaming; interactive scenarios]; Economic base
modeling [input-output analysis]; Technology Assessment
7) Valuing/Decision/Economics Methods: Relevance Trees
[futures wheel], Action [options] Analysis; Cost-benefit
analysis, Decision anaysis [utility analyses]; Economic
base modeling [input-output analysis];
8) Descriptive and Matrices Methods: Analogies, Backcasting,
Checklist for Impact Identification; Innovation System
Modeling; Institutional Analysis,; Mitigation Analysis;
Morphological
Analysis;
Roadmapping
[producttechnology rodmapping]; Social Impact Assessment;
Multiple perspectives assessment; Organizational
analysis; Requirements Analysis [needs analysis]
9) Creativity; Brainstorming [brainwriting; nominal group
process (NGP)]; Creativity Workshops [future workshops];
TRIZ; Vision Generation; Science Fiction Analysis
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S-curve
(S-shaped curve)
is a graph commonly encountered when plotting various aspects of technological

developments. For example, growth of knowledge in a newly opened field (Isenson
and Hartman models), adoption of a new technology are often very well described by
an S-curve.
The illustration shows how successive technologies for tire cords (cotton, rayon, nylon
and polyester) outperformed older ones and replaced them in the marketplace. After
a certain point spending money on research in the old field is simply pointless and the
old technology dies out.
Similar graphs can be made for generational changes in various areas, with new
products starting small, gaining momentum, quickly winning the marketplace and
then slowly reaching the saturation.
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The envelope S-curve

Curbele infasuratoare
"One adaptation of the S-curve is known as the envelope S-curve,

which takes into consideration successive generations of
technologies that provide the same benefits. The term
"envelope" refers to the curve that connects the tangents of
the successive individual S-shaped curves.
A combination of successive S-curves can produce linearly or
exponentially growing graph. For example, many successive
paradigms in computing, taken together produce exponential
growth in computational capacity over 100 years (Kurzweil,
2001, 2003).
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Forbes magazine - technology diffusion rates for various media and

communications technologies since their year of inception
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How long it took before various technologies reached 50% household penetration?
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The extent of household diffusion over time
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Modelling diffusion
S-Curve Example
- shows the time of adoption of buyers for the
product. If the buyer is to the left of the
vertical line in their time of adoption they are
innovators, early adopters or part of the early
majority, if to the right they are the late
majority or the laggards.
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Time of Adoption of
Innovation displays different
types of S curves developed from
alternative types of product sales
forecasting models. They will be
discussed in detail in a latter section of
this investigation.
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S-Curves for the Diffusion of Innovations

The "S-curve" model is what is known as a
"single purchase" model in that it forecasts
sales of products that are typically bought
just once, or infrequently, such as consumer
durables or industrial products such as
mainframe computers.
In addition, the model can be used to forecast
trial or first time purchases for repeat
purchase goods such as snack foods and
detergents, but it does not provide a
forecast of repeat purchase levels.
In order to estimate repeat purchase sales and
differentiate them from trial sales,
businesses would typically need to carry out
test markets or simulated test markets and
apply different forecasting methods that
would provide a steady-state market share
estimate rather than a time-based
Adoption curve as is provided by diffusion
models. However, all products, regardless of
how often they are purchased, have a first
purchase sales volume curve.
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Diffusion of UK residential telephones
Sursa: Modelling and forecasting

the diffusion of innovation A 25year review International Journal
of Forecasting 22 (2006) 519 545
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Internet Adaptation Curve
Rogers, EM, 2003. Diffusion of Innovations, 5th edition, Free Press, New York
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The diffusion of a single innovation in a single market
Bass (1969) suggests that individuals are influenced by a desire to innovate (coefficient of innovation p)
and by a need to imitate others in the population (coefficient of imitation q).
The probability that a potential adopter adopts at time t is driven by (p+qF(t)) where F(t) is the proportion
of adopters at time t. Relating the similarity of innovation diffusion with the spreading of an epidemic,
imitation is often called a contagion effect.
In a pure innovation scenario (p >0,q =0), diffusion follows a modified exponential; in a pure imitation
scenario (p=0, q>0 ), diffusion follows a logistic curve. Other properties are that (p+q) controls scale
and (q/p) controls shape (the condition (q /p)>1 is necessary for the curve to be S-shaped).
Bass model (1969) considered a population of m individuals who are both innovators (those with a constant
propensity to purchase, p) and imitators (those whose propensity to purchase is influenced by the
amount of previous purchasing, q.
The probability density function for a potential adopter making an adoption at time t is:
f(t)=(p+q F(t)) (1-F(t))
The corresponding cumulative density function is
1 exp( ( p q)t )
F (t )
p
1 exp( ) ( ( p q )t )
q
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The diffusion of an innovation is a complex process involving large

numbers of individual decisions
Van den Bulte and Stremersch (2004) performed a meta-analysis on the use of the Bass model
applied to new product diffusion. The study involved 746 different Bass estimations spread
over 75 consumer durables and 77 countries. The international comparison enabled them to
test several sets of hypotheses, relating the diffusion to both the national culture and the
nature of the product. The contagion-based hypotheses for which they found support are that
(q/p) ratios are:
negatively associated with individualism (individualism means more immunity to social
contagion) or positively associated with collectivism;
positively associated with power-distance (a measure of the hierarchical nature of the culture).
The assumption here is that classes tend to adopt a new product at a similar time;
positively associated with masculinity (cultures where there is a clear distinction between
gender roles).
Contrary to their expectations, they found a negative association with uncertainty avoidance (a
measure of how threatened people feel when faced with a novel opportunity). A positive
association is found between q/p and the Gini coefficient of income inequality, supporting the
income heterogeneity hypothesis.
In cases where the products concerned had competing standards e.g. VCRs (Betamax versus VHS),
PCs (DOS/Windows versus Apple), they found that this technological issue dominated the social
or income effects.
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Cum dispare un mit: Sony renunta la casetofoanele Walkman

2010 Sony a anuntat ca opreste productia de Walkman, motivul principal fiind scaderile dramatice ale vanzarilor
dispozitivului. Potrivit companiei, ultimele Walkman-uri au fost produse in Japonia in luna aprilie 2010, iar in
momentul in care stocul de dispozitive se va epuiza, Walkman-ul va deveni "istorie.
Sony a inceput sa produca Walkman-ul in anul 1979. Cu toate ca nu a avut succes la inceput, in anii 1980 acesta a
reprezentat cel mai important instrument portabil pentru a asculta muzica. Numele Walkman, Pressman,
Watchman, Scoopman, Discman si Talkman sunt denumiri date de catre Sony pentru o plaja mai larga de produse
portabile create de catre companie. Denumirea Walkman provine de la cea a predecesorului sau, Pressman, care
este casetofonul. Prima reclama pentru Walkman a aparut in anul 1979, avea ca motto " Sa vedem diferenta!" si
introducea pe piata ideea de miniatura si tehnologie avansata. Initial lansat in Japonia, Walkman-ul a fost
introdus ulterior si in Asia, Orientul Mijlociu si America Latina. De asemenea, Walkman-ul a fost unul din primele
trei dispozitive portabile pentru a asculta muzica, iar in cei 30 de ani in care a fost prezent pe piata, la nivel
mondial s-au vandut peste 220 de milioane de dispozitive. In prezent, MP3 playerele sunt dispozitivele standard
pentru a asculta muzica. Walkman-ul a fost inlocuit de catre CD-playere, care, la randul lor, au fost inlocuite de
catre MP3 playere. Cu toate ca in 2010 a renuntat la productia de Walkman-uri, Sony pastreaza in continuare
denumirea pentru alte produse ale sale. Spre exemplu, in august a lansat seria de MP3 playere, numita Walkman
NWZ- E350. Sony a anuntat ca va continua sa produca CD-playere in ciuda scaderii popularitatii acestora.
Sursa: http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/cum-dispare-un-mit-sony-renunta-la-casetofoanele-walkman-7555596
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Valorile si comportamentul romanesc

n anii '60-70, profesorul Geert Hofstede de la Universitatea din Maastricht a realizat o cercetare asupra diferentelor
de valori ntre angajatii firmei IBM din peste 40 de tari si a ajuns la concluzia ca fiecare natiune poate fi descrisa
din perspectiva locului pe care l ocupa pe o scala de la 0 la 100 fata de:
Indexul distantei fata de putere - PDI - (Modul de perceptie al inegalitatii sociale, al puterii si al autoritatii si
modul de relationare cu autoritatea);
Individualism - IDV - (Modul de relationare ntre indivizi si grupuri);
Masculinitate - MAS - (Implicatiile sociale si emotionale ale faptului de a fi nascut de sex masculin sau feminin);
Indexul de evitare a incertitudinii - UAI - (Modalitati de a face fata incertitudinilor si situatiilor ambigue,
controlul agresiunii si exprimarea emotiilor);
Orientare pe termen lung - LTO - (Orientarea catre viitor, spre deosebire de orientarea catre trecut si prezent).
Intentia initiala a lui Hofstede a fost de a ntelege de ce unele organizatii IBM din tari diferite erau mai productive
decat altele, desi aveau o cultura organizationala similara si foloseau aceleasi tehnici de recrutare, care ar fi
putut induce comportamente similare. Concluzia lui Hofstede a fost ca angajatii din organizatii si vor nsusi
practicile locale sau straine pe care le indica organizatia, dar si vor pastra valorile culturii din care provin si
care i caracterizeaza.
- implicatiile acestor dimensiuni asupra comportamentului de la locul de munca si, n consecinta, cele mai aplicabile teorii de management si
management al resurselor umane n diferite culturi.
PDI poate functiona ca un barometru al nivelului de coruptie pe care l favorizeaza o anumita cultura.
IDV este direct proportional cu PIB-ul pe cap de locuitor: cu cat PIB-ul creste, cu atat creste nivelul de individualism.
UAI semnalizeaza gradul de toleranta fata de minoritati, deschiderea spre noile tehnologii si cantitatea de timp petrecuta pentru planificare
strategica n organizatii.
LTO pot indica nivelul de economii al oamenilor din cultura respectiva si nivelul de investitii n valori imobiliare.
Sursa: Autor Adina LUCA, revista Cariere: 19 mai 2005; Studiul a fost realizat de organizatia Gallup Romania, cu sprijinul lui Geert Jan Hofstede; proiect ce reprezinta o noua etapa n ncercarea de a
ntelege diferentele si similitudinile dintre valorile si comportamentul romanesc si cel al altor natiuni si o modalitate de a oferi explicatii pentru comportamentul si preferintele romanilor.
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Dimesiuni culturale - modelul G. Hosftede (2012)
PD
90
80
90
70
70
60
50
40
30
20
85
30
10
0
UA
IND
90
40
42
MAS
Romania
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Bulgaria
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Valorile
si
comportamentul
romanesc
Rezultatele studiului din 2005 pentru Romania, pe scurt
Implicatii ale dimensiunilor culturale - Pozitia relativa a unei tari pe scala de la 0 (scazut) la 100 (nalt)
din cele cinci puncte de vedere este un bun predictor al comportamentului si normelor sociale, de
familie si educatie, comportamentului la locul de munca, organizarea statala, culoarea politica si
ideile. Datele unei astfel de cercetari sunt interpretabile astfel, din punctul de vedere al scalei de
la 0 la 100: ntre 0 si 40 - nivel scazut, ntre 40 si 60 - nivel mediu, peste 60 - nivel ridicat.
Cercetarea a demonstrat ca Romania are valori similare cu alte tari balcanice, si anume: distanta mare
fata de autoritate, colectivism ridicat, feminitate, grad ridicat de evitare a incertitudinilor si
orientare pe termen scurt. Putem concluziona ca Romania, asemenea celorlalte tari din Balcani
(Bulgaria, Grecia, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania), se afla la polul opus tarilor anglo-saxone, din care
mprumuta toate practicile manageriale si de management al resurselor umane.
Geert Hofstede a estimat pentru Romania niveluri foarte ridicate pentru indicii reprezentand
distanta fata de putere (90) si evitare a incertitudinii (61), nivel scazut pentru indicele
reprezentand individualismul, adica un grad ridicat de colectivism (30) si un grad moderat de
masculinitate (42). Desi nu a oferit o estimare pentru orientarea pe termen lung, putem prespune
ca si Romania are, ca si toate tarile din Europa, o orientare pe termen scurt.
Complexul puterii - Indexul distantei fata de putere a rezultat surprinzator de scazut. Specialistii de la
Interact considera ca nivelul PDI este n realitate foarte nalt, cel putin 70. Romanii, n general,
prefera sa nu intervina n exercitiul autoritatii si sa se supuna ordinelor date de sus. Prin acest
comportament, romanii semnalizeaza nevoia de centralizare n luarea deciziilor, nevoia de a avea
lideri autoritari si dorinta de a urma regulile stabilite de astfel de lideri.
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Valorile si comportamentul romanesc Rezultatele studiului din 2005 pentru Romania, pe scurt
O alta interpretare a unui index ridicat indica preferinta angajatilor pentru o relatie apropiata cu un
singur sef, pentru a obtine protectia acestuia si pentru a evita asumarea responsabilitatii unor
pareri contrare.
Personalul din organizatii cu astfel de culturi nu exprima pareri contrare fata de superior si primeste ordine pe care le
executa fara sa discute. n concluzie, n timp ce comportamentul populatiei demonstreaza o distanta mare fata
de autoritate, preferinta se ndreapta spre un stil de conducere participativ si cooperant. Diferenta observabila
dintre nivelul dorit si nivelul demonstrat prin comportament ne-a dus la concluzia existentei unui complex de
autoritate, care poate explica refuzul cu obstinatie si nedeclarat al majoritatii romanilor de a respecta legile si
autoritatea si, n acelasi timp, cererea expresa de legi si reguli. Aceasta diferenta poate explica si alte paradoxuri,
cum ar fi preferinta pentru a lucra ntr-un mediu anglo-american, cu stil de conducere participativ, prin distanta
mica fata de autoritate, precum si comportamentul pro-american al generatiilor trecute.
Indexul de evitare a incertitudinii n Romania - Romania a nregistrat un nivel ridicat de evitare a

incertitudinii - 61 - care demonstreaza ca populatia are un grad ridicat de anxietate n privinta
viitorului si prefera siguranta zilei de astazi incertitudinii zilei de maine: Nu da vrabia din mana pe
cioara de pe gard. O astfel de societate nu poate planifica strategic pe termen mai lung, pentru ca
privirea n viitor i declanseaza mecanisme defensive.
Unii romani au dificultati n a face fata unor situatii ambigue si opiniilor contrare ale altora. Daca luam n
consideratie si gradul scazut de individualism, membrii societatii nu pot tolera opinii minoritare. n
general, oamenii din astfel de culturi se simt mai confortabil n situatii de consens general. n timpuri
care genereaza anxietate, cum sunt alegerile, amenintari contra securitatii si sigurantei, sau n fata
necesitatii de a accepta ceva nou, strain, cum este tehnologia avansata sau existenta unui partid
minoritar, populatia reactioneaza negativ si emotional si se opune acceptarii. Nivelul ridicat de
anxietate are impact si asupra structurii organizationale. Actiunile preferate sunt cele care rezolva
situatia ambigua de astazi, quick fixes, fara a avea n vedere impactul lor asupra zilei de maine.
Nivelul de anxietate favorizeaza impulsul de moment, graba si exprimarea emotiei negative fara
control.
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Social, technological, economic,

environmental, political analysis (STEEP)
The method uses the social, technological, economic, environmental, political framework, which
provides a convenient way of orienting attention across the range of possible factors.
Social: Trends concerning people and their everyday social relationships:
demographics, lifestyles, families, health, crime, and education.
Technological: Trends concerning the development and application of new knowledge about the
world: scientific and technological developments.
Economic: Trends concerning market relations: conditions in international, national, regional, and
local economies, including developments in the labour force, income, and the infrastructure.
Environmental: Trends concerning natural and physical environments and human impacts on:
energy, resources, pollution, reuse and recycling, biodiversity, protecting ecological bases,
food protection, and air and water quality.
Political: Trends concerning political relations between social groups, states and governments at
all levels: political conflict and modes of governance, political participation, government
policies, regulation, and court decisions.
Sursa: Xtreme EUFORIA: Combining Foresight Methods, EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT,
FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
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Prioritisation is a method that involves: (1) the construction of a list of issues to be

prioritised; (2) setting the criteria (i.e. importance, uncertainty, desirability, etc.) and
weighting scale with clear meanings for each value (i.e. using Likert scale); (3)
setting up a group to make assessments and score issues based on data or judgments;
(4) processing scores and presenting ranked results; and (5) identifying top issues (i.e.
drivers, trends, strategies, policies, etc.). The prioritisation methods is generally
carried out by experts in a given area, however it is also common to see cross-panel
prioritisation processes with the intention of better understanding cross-cutting issues.
Analiza SWOT
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Trend-impact analysis (TIA)
Trend-impact analysis is a technique developed by the Futures Group, Inc., a consulting firm, for projecting
future trends from information gathered on past behavior. The uniqueness of this method lies in its
combination of statistical methods and human judgment. If the future is predicted on quantitative data alone,
it fails to take into account the impact of unprecedented future events. On the other hand, human judgment
provides only subjective insights into the future. Therefore, since both human judgment and statistical
extrapolation have their shortcomings, they should both be taken into consideration when predicting future
trends.
In trend-impact analysis (TIA), past history is first extrapolated with the help of a computer. Then the judgment of
experts is used (usually by means of the Delphi technique) to specify a set of unique future events which may
have a bearing on the phenomenon under study and to indicate how the trend extrapolation would be affected
by the occurrence of each of these events. The computer then uses these judgments to modify the trend
extrapolation. Finally, the experts review the adjusted extrapolation and modify the inputs in those cases in
which the input appears unreasonable.
TIA can be used not only to improve forecasts of time series variables, but also to study the sensitivity of these
forecasts to policy. Of course, any policy considered should attempt to influence as many events as possible,
rather than one as in this example. Realistically, corporate actions often have both beneficial and detrimental
possibilities since they may increase both desirable and undesirable possibilities. The use of TIA can make such
uncertainties more clearly visible than is possible with traditional methods.
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Cross-impact analysis (CIA)

Cross-impact analysis is planned to study the impact of an event on other events. The cross-impact analysis
provides the time probability of occurrence of an event and indicates other key events which may be
monitored to keep track of the first event.
With the cross-impact matrix the effects of potential interactions among items in a forecast set of
occurrences can be investigated. If the behavior of an individual item is probable, (i.e., if it varies positively or
negatively with the occurrence or nonoccurrence of other items), the cross-impact effect is present. Thus,
using the cross-impact matrix method, it can be determined whether the predicted event will have an
enhancing or inhibiting influence upon each of the other events affected.
With the cross-impact matrix the effects of potential interactions among items in a forecast set of
occurrences can be investigated. If the behavior of an individual item is probable, (i.e., if it varies positively or
negatively with the occurrence or nonoccurrence of other items), the cross-impact effect is present. Thus,
using the cross-impact matrix method, it can be determined whether the predicted event will have an
enhancing or inhibiting influence upon each of the other events affected.
Cross-impact analysis is a technique used for examining the impacts of potential future events upon each other. It
indicates the relative importance of specific events, identifies groups of reinforcing or inhibiting events, and
unfolds relationships between events which appear unrelated. In brief, cross-impact analysis provides a
future forecast, making due allowance for interacting forces having a bearing on the shape of things to come.
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Metoda CIA - Cross-Impact Analysis

O limitare de baz a metodelor clasice de previziune i a metodei Delphi este c acestea realizeaz numai prognoze oarecum izolate;
mai exact, evenimentele i tendintele (trendurile) sunt proiectate pe rnd, fr o referire explicit a posibilei influene reciproce.
Totui, majoritatea evenimentelor i a evoluiilor sunt dependente ntre ele. Interdependenele ntre aceste evenimente i
evoluii pot fi luate n considerare prin analiza cross-impact - o modalitate sistematic de a examina posibile evoluiile viitoare i
interaciunile lor; metoda care ncearc s indice probabilitatea condiionat a unui eveniment, innd cont de faptul c anumite
evenimente s-au produs sau nu.
Paii majori n utilizarea analizei cross-impact pentru evaluarea situaiilor viitoare sunt descrii de ctre Helmer (1977) i Fowles (1978)
ca fiind:
definirea evenimentelor i a trendurilor ce vor fi incluse n studiu;
definirea intervalului de planificare i a subintervalelor (secvene / scene);
realizarea matricelor cross-impact pentru definirea interdependenelor dintre evenimente i trenduri;
estimarea intrrilor pentru matricea cross-impact, spre exemplu, informaii cu privire la modul n care ar afecta apariia unui
eveniment E sau deviaia unui trend T, de la valorile ateptate n cadrul unei secvene date, probabilitile altui eveniment i
valorile trendurilor n secvenele ulterioare;
estimarea probabilitilor iniiale de manifestare ale fiecrui eveniment in fiecare scen; estimarea valorii fiecrui trend la
nceputul fiecrei secvene; realizarea unui test de calibrare;
definirea politicilor, aciunilor sau a testelor de senzitivitate ce vor fi utilizate cu matricea;
realizarea calculelor cross-impact; evaluarea rezultatelor.

Conceptul cross-impact (impact ncruciat) a fost propus de O. Helmer i T. Gordon, avnd legtur cu proiectarea unui exerciiu de
previziune pentru Kaiser-Aluminum (Helmer, 1977). In aceast abordare, evenimentele erau nregistrate ntr-o matrice ortogonal
(dreptunghiular) i la fiecare intersecie de linii/coloane se punea ntrebarea: Dac se va ntmpla evenimentul de pe linie, cum
ar afecta probabilitatea de apariie (manifestare) a evenimentului din coloana? Aprecierile erau nregistrate in celulele matricei.
Allen (1977) afirma c majoritatea metodelor de forecasting nu pot lua in considerare multe inter-reacii intre evenimentele
prognozate.
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Metoda de Prognoza - Matricea Cross Impact

(Impact Incrucisat)
Probabilitile iniiale de manifestare a evenimentelor, valorile trendurilor i magnitudinea impactului dintre
variabile pot fi estimate de ctre experi individuali. In general, acestea sunt estimate de ctre grupuri ce
conin experi din cadrul diferitelor discipline acoperite de evenimente (Fowles, 1978).
Pentru a colecta aceste aprecieri, pot fi folosite, de asemenea, chestionarele sau interviurile de tip Delphi. Echipa
Gordon - Hayward (1968) definete trei moduri de legtur ntre variabile. Se presupune c evenimentul E1 se
manifest; un al doilea eveniment E2 ar putea fi complet neafectat de ctre E1; ar putea fi
exacerbat/intensificat de manifestarea lui E1; sau poate fi inhibat de manifestarea lui E1.
Intensificarea legturilor, acolo unde probabilitatea celui de al doilea eveniment este mbuntit de manifestarea
primului, rezult din diferite mecanisme, incluznd:
Manifestarea lui E1 face fezabil sau practic posibil manifestarea lui E2. O astfel de relaie este desemnat ca
o relaie ce faciliteaz/permite (favorizeaza).
Manifestarea lui E1 oblig manifestarea lui E2 pentru utilizarea eficient a lui E1. O astfel de relaie de
intensificare este desemnat ca relaie ce provoac.
Inhibarea legturilor, acolo unde probabilitatea celui de al doilea eveniment este diminuat de manifestarea
primului, rezult din mecanisme incluznd:
Manifestarea lui E1 face ca E2 s fie nefezabil sau nepractic. Acest tip de relaie de inhibare este desemnat a fi
de denigrare.
Manifestarea lui E1 oblig nemanifestarea lui E2 pentru utilizarea eficient a lui E1. O astfel de relaie de
inhibare este desemnat a fi o relaie antagonist.
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Matricea Cross Impact (Impact Incrucisat)

(2)
Odat ce modelul de impact ncruciat a fost realizat, ar trebui s fie utilizat in mod iterativ, Helmer (1977) a
descris un proces complet astfel: n etapa 1, se decide asupra evenimentelor ce se vor manifesta (prin
intermediul unei simulri Monte Carlo, de extragere a unor numere aleatorii); se ajusteaz probabilitile
evenimentelor i valorile trendurilor pentru etapa 2, n concordan cu matricea cross-impact;
se trece la etapa 2, ajustnd n continuare valorile trendurilor, adugnd deviaii aleatorii ce au fost
extrase din distribuia exogen de incertitudine adecvat.
Se decide din nou ce evenimente se manifest, se ajusteaz probabilitile evenimentelor i valorile

trendurilor pentru etapa 3, in concordan cu impactul ncruciat pentru evenimentul respectiv; se
observa deviaiile T ale valorilor trendurilor de la valorile ateptate ale acestora, n cadrul etapei 2, i se
ajusteaz in continuare probabilitile evenimentelor si valorile trendurilor pentru etapei 3, in
concordan cu impactul ncruciat pentru trendul respectiv; se aplic reportul acolo unde este cazul.
se repet procedura pentru etapele 3, 4 si aa mai departe.
Rezultatul va fi un scenariu, care este o secvena de manifestri ale evenimentelor, pe scene, si o

secvena de ajustri ale valorilor trendurilor. Diferite runde vor produce scenarii diferite din cauza
elementelor aleatorii prezente. Abilitatea de a aduga informaii (de exemplu, schimbri de politica) ce nu
au fcut parte din informaiile iniiale, face dintr-un model interactiv cross-impact, o tehnic ce are final
deschis pentru analize exploratorii (Enzer si Alter, 1978).
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Identificarea variabilelor cheie

http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/4_methodology/meth_structural-analysis.htm
indicator de influen msoar

intensitatea cu care o variabil
acioneaz
asupra
celorlalte
(corespunde rndurilor din matrice)
- indicator de dependent msoar
intensitatea cu care o variabil este
influenat (este asociat coloanelor din
matrice)
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Analiza Influenei Critice (AIC)

Metoda AIC/CIA include numeroase elemente utilizate de cele mai multe ori in conferinele despre Foresight
(exercitiu de prospectiva/previziune) i, mai ales, in cadrul analizei impactului incruciat, inclusiv un proces n
care participanii identific i analizeaz elementele care conduc la schimbri i factorii importani care le
influeneaz (i ncearc s confere prioritate acestora n funcie de importan etc). AIC este o tehnic
utilizat pentru a identifica i nelege corelaia dintre variabile. Cel mai mare beneficiu al utilizrii acestei
analize rezid din abilitatea metodei de a dezvlui relaiile existente ntre variabilele unui sistem.
Metoda CIA folosete o matrice 15x10 - att setul de 15 factori de influen ct i setul de 10 tendine
previzionate n ceea ce privete condiiile de via (LC) , relaiile industriale (IR) i condiiile de munc (WC).
Structura a fost conceput prin sesiuni de brainstorming asociate cu un proces de prioritizare al crui scop era
selectarea celor 15 factori cheie i a celor 10 efecte. Relaiile au fost reprezentate ntr-o matrice ale crei 150
de celule au fost completate prin prisma judecilor experilor. Acetia au fost rugai s atribuie valori utiliznd
urmtoarea scal:
-3 daca un anumit factor ar avea un efect de inhibare puternic asupra impactului tendinei;
-2 pentru o influen negativ moderat;
-1 pentru o influen uor negativ;
0 pentru un efect neutru sau pentru o influen echilibrat;
+1 pentru un factor cu o influen uor pozitiv sau un efect de ntrire a impactului;
+2 pentru un efect pozitiv moderat;
+3 pentru o influen pozitiv foarte puternic.
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Lista variabilelor Societatii Cunoasterii - Lista factorilor

determinani ai Societii Bazate pe Cunotine
Variabila 01. Scaderea increderii cu privire la (e-) tranzactii si la protectia datelor
Variabila 02. Cresterea cererii pentru serviciile necalificate (low skill services) si scaderea ofertei
Variabila 03. Extinderea UE la 25+ si chiar mai mult
Variabila 04. Cresterea ratei pentru schimbarile climatice si incalzirea globale
Variabila 05. Cresterea gradului preferinta ptr. medii artificiale preferinta de a petrece timpul liber, spre
exemplu in parcuri tematice.
Variabila 06. Cresterea importantei educatiei cu privire la mediu natural
Variabila 07. Globalizarea: Dezvoltarea Guvernarii Globale si aparitia cresterii complexitatii in interactiunile
intereselor locale
Variabila 08. Schimbarea prioritatilor politice, spre exemplu catre durabilitate
Variabila 09. Evolutia democratiei intr-un mediu E-Government
Variabila 10. Imbtrnirea societatii (ageing society) intensificata in special de largirea UE
Variabila 11. Cresterea eterogenitatii in ceea ce priveste formele de familie
Variabila 12. Noi provocari pentru asistenta sociala si pentru sistemul de sanatate publica
Variabila 13. Larga aplicare a noilor tehnologii in cadrul serviciilor publice, cu largi implicatii pentru sanatate,
pentru educatie (dar si preocupari private).
Variabila 14. Ampla dezvoltare si raspandire a noilor metode de producere, localizare, distributie si management
pentru informatii destinate indivizilor si organizatiilor
Variabila 15. Cresterea continua a tuturor aspectelor performantelor ICT (spre exemplu conectare wireless,
stocare, dimensiune)
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Lista formelor de impact al Societatii Cunoasterii asupra

conditiilor de viata, relatiilor industriale si conditiilor de viata
Impactul 01. Presiunea asupra muncii constrnge/tensioneaza balana/echilibrul munc via

Impactul 02. Aparitia unor noi forme de ingrijire a copiilor si de asistenta a celor in varsta
Impactul 03. Apariia unei societi dualiste care i vede pe cei nstrii trecnd la sistemul
privat de prestare a serviciilor, n timp ce cel public rmne celor sraci
Impactul 04. Incertitudinea i constrngerile de la locul de munc creeaz stres i mai multe
probleme de sntate asociate
Impactul 05. mbtrnirea forei de munc este incompatibil cu programul de lucru prelungit
Impactul 06. Creterea nivelului de (cyber)securitate n cadrul firmelor duce la creterea
gradului de supraveghere a angajailor
Impactul 07. Mai mult munc multi-locaie
Impactul 08. Tendine divergente n ceea ce privete contractele individuale i condiiile de
munc neo-Taylor-iste
Impactul 09. Sindicatele devin tot mai inovatoare n recrutarea i pstrarea diverselor
segmente ale forei de munc (de exemplu, contracte temporare de munc)
Impactul 10. Ocuparea locurilor de munc de ctre imigrani necalificai conduce la friciuni
ntre muncitorii strini i cei autohtoni.
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Metoda CIA a incercat sa reprezinte principalele relatii dintre factori cheie ale Societatii
Cunoasterii si principalele lor forme de impact asupra factorilor asociati conditiilor de
viata la nivel european (LC), relatiilor industriale (IR) si conditiilor de munca (WC).
Sursa: Xtreme EUFORIA: Combining Foresight Methods, EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville
13-14 May 2004
Factori det. ai soc. Impactul Tendinei asupra condiiilor de via, relaiilor industriale i condiiilor de munc
bazate
pe
+ Influen
I1
I2
I3
I4
I5
I6
I7
I8
I9
I10
(pozitiva)
cunotine
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
D8
D9
D10
D11
D12
D13
D14
D15
0
1
1
0
2
1
1
0
-1
2
2
2
0
1
1
0
2
1
0
1
0
1
2
0
2
3
0
2
1
1
0
2
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
2
1
3
1
-1
0
1
1
1
0
-1
1
1
0
0
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
-1
-1
-1
2
1
2
0
1
0
1
-1
1
1
0
1
2
2
3
-2
0
2
0
1
-1
1
0
2
3
0
0
2
3
3
0
1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
3
2
2
2
2
0
1
0
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
0
-1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
1
0
0
-0
Dependen + (pozitiva)
14
16
11
10
17
17
21
Dependen - (negativa)
-1
-1
-1
-3
-1
-3
-1
-1
Independen
10
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12
10
1
6
2
9
5
4
18
11
13
8
12
11
-Influen
(negativa)
Nici o influen
-2
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-2
-1
6
1
2
9
4
7
2
6
6
0
3
3
4
2
3
100
Analiza CIA Knowledge society

Analiza cross-impact este o tehnica utilizata pentru a identifica si intelege corelatia dintre variabile. A
fost implementata mai ales in exercitiile de foresight din Franta si America Latina, ca un instrument
de identificare a modului in care evolutiile social-economice si tehnologie dintr-o arie ar putea
influenta alte arii. Beneficiul major al utilizarii analizei cross-impact este abilitatea de a releva
relatiile dintre variabilele unui sistem.
Exercitiul CIA a contribuit la:
(1) identificarea influentei variabilelor Societatii Cunoasterii asupra impactelor de trend ale conditiilor
de viata, conditiilor de munca si relatiilor industriale;
(2) Identificarea celor mai puternice si celor mai inhibate impacte de trend;
(3) identificarea variabilelor consistente pentru Societatea Cunoasterii;
(4) identificarea celor mai puternice impacte si a celor mai fragile.
The combination of detached experts judgements can sometimes produce inappropriate information for
designing the structure of an exercise
The lack of consensus among experts sometimes lead to take an average value to weight a specific
relationship between variables
The use of rigid structures (i.e. matrix-based methods or models) sometimes hinder the capacity to capture
important issues emerging at the group discussions
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Tema de discutie - Legile lui Moore

Prima lege a lui Moore se bazeaz pe observaia c numrul componentelor electronice pe unitatea de suprafa a substratului de siliciu sa dublat la fiecare doi ani, mai precis dup fiecare 18 luni. Astfel, saltul de la tubul electronic la tranzistor a marcat un prim pas de
modificare a nsui substratului fizic n care se structura elementul de calcul. ncepnd cu 1950 au aprut primele circuite integrate, apoi au
urmat cele la scara medie (MSI) n jurul lui 1960, urmate n perioada lui 1970 de integratele de tip LSI. Cele denumite VLSI (very large scale
integration) au aprut prin 1980, iar din 1990 sunt disponibile integratele n tehnologia ULSI (ultra large scale integration). Azi, un procesor
de tip Intel Pentium conine mai mult de trei milioane de tranzistoare, n timp ce Motorola PowerPC are aproximativ apte milioane de
tranzistoare, iar microprocesurul Digital's 64-bit Alpha conine nu mai puin de zece milioane de tranzistoare. Aceast cretere a
performanei tehnologice se datoreaz nsi calitii produsului obinut ce acioneaz asupra industriei electronice ca reacie pozitiv ce
ambaleaz nsui procesul de dezvoltare, inventivitate i ingeniozitate. Dezvoltarea hard a condus la o explozie a complexitii softului ce s-a
dezvoltat i el dup o lege exponenial. Astfel, limbajul Basic avea, n 1975, 4000 de linii de cod, pentru ca, douzeci de ani mai trziu, s
aib peste jumtate de milion. Aceeai evoluie exploziv a avut-o i banalul Microsoft Word care, n cazul versiunii din 1982, avea
aproximativ 27.000 de linii, iar n cea din 2000, aproape 2.000.000. Dificultatea de a gestiona ns aceste 2.000.000 de linii este o alt
problem ce atest faptul c omul devine din ce n ce mai puin implicat n munca de jos, de programare n sens clasic si se erijeaz ntr-un
dirijor al unor sisteme informatice ce proceseaz inteligent la nivel de bit. Se nasc limbaje din ce n ce mai evoluate, metalimbaje ce
structureaz specific mintea celor ce le utilizeaz. ntre creterea continu a capabilitii hard i dezvoltarea de programe scrise n limbaje
din ce n ce mai evoluate este o strns legtur. Apare un efect multiplicativ, o avalan ce schimb din ce n ce mai repede viaa noastr
cea de toate zilele. Efectul asupra omului se poate vedea imediat, cci toi cei ce sunt, ntr-un fel sau altul, implicai n activiti ce se
desfoar pe lng calculator, pe lng reeaua Internet, sunt mai dinamici, pot corela mai bine, sunt mai activi i, se poate spune, gndesc
altfel. Tot adevrat este ns i afirmaia c sunt din ce n ce mai puini cei care neleg cu-adevrat ceea ce se petrece n complicatul
ansamblu hard-soft ce alctuiete un computer modern.
Cea de a doua lege a lui Moore se refer la un aspect economic, cel al creterii exponeniale a preului de investiie pentru obinerea
concret a procesoarelor i memoriilor. In 1995, in revista Economist, Moore spunea ca ceea ce a devenit din ce n ce mai ngrijortor n
ultima perioad este creterea costurilor de fabricaie. Aceasta este o alt exponenial. Astfel, ca imagine a efortului fcut pentru
implementarea unor noi tehnologii i obinerea de produse IT pe msura primei exponeniale, prezentate tot in Economist - 1995, aflam:
costul unei fabrici a crescut de la 14milioane de dolari SUA n 1966 la 1.5 miliarde de dolari in 1995! In mare, se poate spune c preul
investiiei se dubleaz la fiecare patru ani, motiv pentru care Dan Hutcheson, specialist in tehnologia VLSI, afirm c limita procesului de
dezvoltare tehnologic este dictat de aspectul economic care se va impune n faa limitei fizice de miniaturizare. Oricum, datele empirice
existente sunt suficient de multe i exacte pentru ca cele dou legi ale lui Moore s poat defini un moment de criz peste care, fie din
considerente fizice, fie economice, procesul observat in mai bine de un secol s se opreasc. Acest moment, acest zid al Complexitii este
calculat a fi undeva ntre 2020 2030.
Sursa: Florin Munteanu, revista tiin i Tehnic
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Tema de discutie - Legile lui Moore si singularitatea tehnologica
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Tema de discutie - Legile lui Moore si singularitatea

tehnologica
Singularitatea tehnologic este un concept din stiinta viitorului (futurologie) care se refer la implicaiile pe care n general le are
progresul tehnico-tiinific foarte accelerat pentru specia uman i ceea ce nelegem prin om.
n anul 1958, ntr-un interviu, John von Neumann vorbea despre faptul c progresul tehnico-tiinific accelerat las s se ntrevad un
fel de singularitate, dincolo de care viaa i lumea aa cum le tim noi nu mai pot exista. Conceptul a fost n mod formal lansat n 1993
de ctre matematicianul Vernor Vinge i dezvoltat apoi de ctre experi precum Ray Kurzweil (Law of Accelerating Returns Legea
ntoarcerilor accelerate) i Eliezer Yudkowsky.
Singularitate? Termenul a fost mprumutat din fizic (unde singularitate este, de exemplu, o gaur neagr, noi neputnd afla ce
este n interiorul ei, neputnd ptrunde dincolo de raza Schwarzschild, legile fizicii nemaiavnd valabilitate aici). Se pare c
Universul s-a nscut dintr-o asemenea singularitate, cnd spaiul i timpul erau comprimate la infinit) i din matematic (analiza
complex, unde este punctul n care o ecuaie sau o suprafa se degenereaz sau dispar).
Explozie de inteligen. Conform legii lui Moore, se estimeaz c n aproximativ 20-30 de ani, computerele vor depi puterea de
calcul a creierului uman, care este la aprox. 1014 operaii pe secund. Avem 100 de miliarde de neuroni ori 1,000 de conexiuni per
neuron (calculele avnd loc n principal n conexiuni) ori 200 de operaii pe secund
n Law of Accelerating Returns, Ray Kurzweil ajunge la concluzia c de la apariia Universului, i mai ales de la apariia vieii pe Pmnt,
evoluia a avut loc exponenial (chiar dublu exponenial) i nu liniar. Extrapolnd Legea lui Moore, Kurzweil conchide c n cei 100 de
ani ai secolului al XXI-lea vom asista la o evoluie comparabil cu 20,000 de ani precedeni, dac se menine curba exponenial.
Aceasta deoarece odat ce computerele vor depi performana creierului uman, vor fi capabile s se auto-mbunteasc,
meninnd ritmul de cretere exponenial al vitezei de calcul. Rezultatul este c progresul tehnico-tiinific va cunoate o accelerare
din ce n ce mai nalt. Aceste computere atunci vor fi n stare s descifreze foarte rapid aproape toate secretele naturii i Universului.
Acest salt tehnologic ultrarapid va duce la evenimente aproape imposibil de imaginat pentru specia homo sapiens: contopirea dintre
inteligena biologic i cea non-biologic (mind uploading), oameni aproape nemuritori i nivele nalte de superinteligen care se
rspndesc rapid n ntreg Universul (de aceea este folosit termenul de singularitate: specia uman nu are cum s neleag ce va urma
(gaur neagr) la fel precum o bacterie nu poate nelege ce este un om, att de mare va fi progresul tehnico-tiinific).
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