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atribuite n principal evoluiei costurilor de producie i a altor factori care influeneaz evoluia
preurilor din punct de vedere structural, iar nu influenei factorilor temporari. Prin urmare,
examinarea convergenei include o evaluare a factorilor determinani ai inflaiei i a perspectivelor pe
termen mediu.
n contextul unor importante ocuri negative (criza economic i financiar mondial i presiunile
dezinflaioniste), cteva ri ale UE s-au confruntat cu perioade cu rate negative ale inflaiei (20092010). n acest context precis, ratele negative ale inflaiei constituie o referin valabil din punct de
vedere economic pe baza creia se poate evalua performana statelor n materie de stabilitate a
preurilor. Pare ns justificat excluderea rilor care au o rat medie a inflaiei ce se situeaz foarte
departe de media inflaiei pentru zona euro din categoria statelor membre cu cele mai bune rezultate.
De exemplu, n martie 2010 s-a ajuns la excluderea Irlandei, singura ar a crei rat medie a inflaiei
pe 12 luni (la -2,3% n martie 2010) a deviat considerabil de la cea nregistrat n zona euro i n alte
state membre, reflectnd, n principal, recesiunea economic sever.
European Union
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2.2
2.4
7.4
4.5
2.3
1.9
5.6
4
2.1
1.6
5.8
1.4
2.4
1.4
3.6
4.7
2
1.5
2.3
-0.1
2
1
1.4
4
2
1.9
6.1
2.6
0.9
1.8
3
2.3
2.2
2.5
6
1.6
1.7
1.9
4.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
7.4
2.1
1.9
1.8
4.4
2.7
2.3
1.8
7.6
3
1.7
2.3
6.7
2.9
3.7
4.5
12
6.3
3.6
2.8
10.6
3.1
1
0
2.5
0.6
1.1
0.2
0.2
-1.7
2.1
2.3
3
1.2
2.2
1.2
2.7
-1.6
3.1
3.5
3.4
2.1
2.7
2.5
5.1
1.2
2.6
2.6
2.4
3.5
2.4
2.1
4.2
1.9
3.7
2.8
1.8
2.3
2
2.5
1.6
2.4
9.1
2.5
5.1
2.3
5.3
4.4
34.5
8.6
7.2
2.7
2.7
1.2
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom
REFERIN DE
COMPLETAT
3.9
3.6
1.9
2.6
2.8
2
0.3
2.1
5.2
2.6
3.9
1.7
1.9
3.7
22.5
7.5
3.5
2
1.9
1.3
3.4
3.1
2.2
2.8
4
2.9
-1.1
2.5
4.7
1.9
2.2
1.3
0.7
3.3
15.3
5.7
8.4
1.3
2.3
1.4
3
3.1
2.3
2.3
1.9
6.2
1.2
3.2
6.8
2.7
1.4
2
3.6
2.5
11.9
3.7
7.5
0.1
1
1.3
3.5
3.4
1.9
2.2
2
6.9
2.7
3.8
3.5
2.5
1.5
2.1
2.2
2.1
9.1
2.5
2.8
0.8
0.8
2.1
3.3
3.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
6.6
3.8
3
4
2.6
1.7
1.7
1.3
3
6.6
2.5
4.3
1.3
1.5
2.3
3
2.8
1.6
2
2.2
10.1
5.8
2.7
7.9
0.7
1.6
2.2
2.6
2.4
4.9
3.8
1.9
1.6
1.7
2.3
4.2
4.1
3.2
3.5
4.4
15.3
11.1
4.1
6
4.7
2.2
3.2
4.2
2.7
7.9
5.5
3.9
3.9
3.3
3.6
1.3
-0.2
0.1
0.8
0.2
3.3
4.2
0
4
1.8
1
0.4
4
-0.9
5.6
0.9
0.9
1.6
1.9
2.2
4.7
2
1.7
1.6
2.6
-1.2
1.2
2.8
4.7
2
0.9
1.7
2.7
1.4
6.1
2.1
0.7
1.7
1.9
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.3
2.9
3.5
4.2
4.1
3.7
3.9
2.5
2.5
3.6
3.9
3.6
5.8
2.1
4.1
3.3
1.4
4.5
1
2.4
2.2
3.3
3.1
2.3
3.2
2.9
5.7
3.2
2.8
2.6
3.7
2.8
3.4
2.8
3.7
3.2
0.9
2.8
IPC
limita superioar
limita inferioar
au
g.
13
iu
n.
13
ap
r.1
3
fe
b.
13
de
c.
12
oc
t.1
2
au
g.
12
iu
n.
12
ap
r.1
2
fe
b.
12
de
c.
11
oc
t.1
1
au
g.
11
iu
n.
11
ap
r.1
1
fe
b.
11
de
c.
10
oc
t.1
0
au
g.
10
iu
n.
10
ap
r.1
0
fe
b.
10
de
c.
09
1.00
1.0
iu
l. 1
0
se
p.
10
no
v.
10
ia
n.
11
m
ar
.1
1
m
ai
.1
1
iu
l. 1
1
se
p.
11
no
v.
11
ia
n.
12
m
ar
.1
2
m
ai
.1
2
iu
l. 1
2
se
p.
12
no
v.
12
ia
n.
13
m
ar
.1
3
m
ai
.1
3
iu
l. 1
3
se
p.
13
ia
n.
10
m
ar
.1
0
m
ai
.1
0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
rata lunar
rata medie anual
rata anual
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
EU (27 countries)
Belgium
Bulgaria
:
5.59
:
5
5.13
:
4.92
4.99
:
4.23
4.18
6.45
4.38
4.15
5.36
3.7
3.43
3.87
4.03
3.81
4.18
4.56
4.33
4.54
4.54
4.42
5.38
4.13
3.9
7.22
3.82
3.46
6.01
4.3
4.23
5.36
3.68
3
4.5
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Ireland
Greece
:
5.64
5.26
5.51
6.1
6.31
5.08
4.8
5.01
5.3
4.88
5.06
4.78
5.01
5.12
4.12
4.31
4.07
4.13
4.27
4.82
4.3
4.04
4.08
4.26
3.54
3.4
3.35
3.33
3.59
3.8
3.81
3.76
3.76
4.07
4.3
4.29
4.22
4.31
4.5
4.63
4.28
3.98
4.53
4.8
4.84
3.59
3.22
5.23
5.17
3.88
2.93
2.74
5.74
9.09
3.71
2.73
2.61
9.6
15.8
2.78
1.4
1.5
6.17
22.5
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
5.53
5.39
5.58
:
:
5.12
4.94
5.19
7.62
7.57
4.96
4.86
5.03
5.7
5.41
4.12
4.13
4.25
4.74
4.9
4.1
4.1
4.26
5.8
4.86
3.39
3.41
3.56
5.16
3.88
3.78
3.8
4.05
4.13
4.13
4.31
4.3
4.49
4.48
5.28
4.37
4.23
4.68
4.6
6.43
3.98
3.65
4.31
4.6
12.4
4.25
3.12
4.04
4.6
10.3
5.44
3.32
5.42
5.79
5.91
5.85
2.54
5.49
7
4.57
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
:
5.52
:
:
5.4
8.15
4.86
7.95
6.19
4.96
6.06
4.7
7.09
5.82
4.89
5.32
3.32
6.82
5.04
4.12
4.5
2.84
8.19
4.69
4.1
3.7
2.41
6.6
4.56
3.37
4.08
3.3
7.12
4.32
3.78
4.55
4.46
6.74
4.72
4.29
5.61
4.61
8.24
4.81
4.23
14
4.23
9.12
4.54
3.69
5.57
3.17
7.28
4.19
2.99
5.16
2.92
7.64
4.49
2.99
4.83
1.82
7.89
4.13
1.93
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
5.56
:
5.59
:
5.08
10.7
5.16
:
4.96
7.36
5.01
:
4.14
5.78
4.18
:
4.13
6.9
4.14
:
3.39
5.22
3.44
:
3.8
5.23
3.91
7.23
4.3
5.48
4.42
7.13
4.36
6.07
4.52
7.7
3.94
6.12
4.21
9.69
3.23
5.78
5.4
7.34
3.32
5.96
10.2
7.29
2.37
5
10.55
6.68
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom
:
:
5.48
5.37
5.33
:
8.04
5.04
5.11
5.01
8.72
6.94
4.98
5.3
4.91
6.4
4.99
4.13
4.64
4.58
4.68
5.03
4.11
4.42
4.93
3.81
3.52
3.35
3.38
4.46
3.85
4.41
3.78
3.7
4.37
4.53
4.49
4.29
4.17
5.06
4.61
4.72
4.29
3.89
4.5
4.38
4.71
3.74
3.25
3.36
3.83
3.87
3.01
2.89
3.36
4.97
4.45
3.01
2.61
2.87
5.81
4.55
1.89
1.59
1.74
CDS - prima de asigurare pe care un creditor trebuie s o plteasc unui ter pentru ca, n cazul n care
debitorul intr n incapacitate de plat, s i poat recupera integral suma plasat.
09.07.2013
25.06.2013
11.06.2013
28.05.2013
14.05.2013
30.04.2013
16.04.2013
02.04.2013
14.03.2013
28.02.2013
14.02.2013
31.01.2013
17.01.2013
03.01.2013
19.12.2012
05.12.2012
20.11.2012
07.11.2012
24.10.2012
11.10.2012
28.09.2012
17.09.2012
03.09.2012
26.11.2013
12.11.2013
29.10.2013
15.10.2013
01.10.2013
17.09.2013
03.09.2013
100
20.08.2012
200
20.08.2013
300
07.08.2012
400
06.08.2013
500
24.07.2012
CDS Romania
23.07.2013
600
11.07.2012
28.06.2012
15.06.2012
04.06.2012
22.05.2012
09.05.2012
26.04.2012
13.04.2012
02.04.2012
20.03.2012
07.03.2012
23.02.2012
10.02.2012
30.01.2012
17.01.2012
04.01.2012
22.12.2011
09.12.2011
28.11.2011
250
CDS ROMANIA
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
EU (27 countries)
Belgium
Bulgaria
-2.6
-0.1
-1.2
-3.2
-0.1
-0.4
-2.9
-0.1
1.9
-2.5
-2.5
1
-1.5
0.4
1.9
-0.9
-0.1
1.2
-2.4
-1
1.7
-6.9
-5.5
-4.3
-6.5
-3.8
-3.1
-4.4
-3.7
-2
-3.9
-4
-0.8
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
-6.5
0.4
-3.8
0.3
-0.4
-6.7
0.1
-4.2
1.7
0.4
-2.8
2.1
-3.8
1.6
1.4
-3.2
5.2
-3.3
1.6
1.7
-2.4
5.2
-1.6
2.5
2.9
-0.7
4.8
0.2
2.4
0.1
-2.2
3.2
-0.1
-2.9
-7.4
-5.8
-2.7
-3.1
-2
-13.9
-4.8
-2.5
-4.1
0.2
-30.9
-3.3
-1.8
-0.8
1.1
-13.4
-4.4
-4.1
0.1
-0.2
-8.2
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
-4.8
-0.2
-3.1
-3.1
-4.4
-5.6
-0.3
-4.1
-3.6
-6.6
-7.5
-0.1
-3.6
-3.5
-4.1
-5.2
1.3
-2.9
-4.4
-2.4
-5.7
2.4
-2.3
-3.4
-1.2
-6.5
1.9
-2.7
-1.6
3.5
-9.8
-4.5
-3.3
-2.7
0.9
-15.6
-11.2
-7.5
-5.4
-6.1
-10.7
-9.7
-7.1
-4.5
-5.3
-9.4
-9.4
-5.2
-3.9
-6.3
-9
-10.6
-4.8
-3
-6.4
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
-2.3
-1.9
2.1
-9
-5.8
-1.6
-1.3
0.5
-7.3
-9.2
-1
-1.5
-1.1
-6.5
-4.7
-0.4
-0.5
0
-7.9
-2.9
-0.5
-0.4
1.4
-9.4
-2.8
-0.4
-1
3.7
-5.1
-2.3
-4.2
-3.3
3.2
-3.7
-4.6
-9.8
-9.4
-0.8
-4.6
-3.9
-8.1
-7.2
-0.8
-4.4
-3.6
-3.4
-5.5
-0.3
4.3
-2.7
-1.3
-3.2
-0.6
-2
-3.3
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
-2.1
-0.7
-5
-3.4
-3.1
-1.5
-6.2
-3.7
-1.7
-4.4
-5.4
-4
-0.3
-1.7
-4.1
-6.5
0.5
-1.5
-3.6
-4.6
0.2
-0.9
-1.9
-3.1
0.5
-0.9
-3.7
-3.6
-5.6
-4.1
-7.4
-10.2
-5.1
-4.5
-7.9
-9.8
-4.5
-2.5
-5
-4.4
-4.1
-2.5
-3.9
-6.4
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
-2
-2.4
-8.2
4.2
-1.3
-1.5
-2.7
-2.8
2.6
-1
-1.2
-2.3
-2.4
2.5
0.6
-1.2
-1.5
-2.8
2.9
2.2
-2.2
-1.4
-3.2
4.2
2.3
-2.9
0
-1.8
5.3
3.6
-5.7
-1.9
-2.1
4.4
2.2
-9
-6
-8
-2.5
-0.7
-6.8
-5.7
-7.7
-2.5
0.3
-5.5
-6.4
-4.9
-0.6
0.4
-3
-3.8
-4.5
-1.8
-0.2
United Kingdom
-2.1
-3.4
-3.5
-3.4
-2.7
-2.8
-5.1
-11.5
-10.2
-7.8
-6.1
Eurostat utilizeaza metoda ESA, in vreme ce FMI foloseste metoda cash. In cazul standardului ESA de pilda, garantiile de stat
se adauga la deficit, iar deficitul calculat astfel este mai mare decat cel obtinut prin calculul folosit de FMI.
Standardul ESA95 are ca principale diferent fata de metodologia cash inregistrarea veniturilor si cheltuielilor in sistem
accrual (pe baza de angajamente, nu de plati efective precum in sistemul cash).
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
65.8
114
77.6
15.8
58.1
61.3
6.5
47
94
62.4
58.9
113
59.3
12.5
22.7
6.4
60.8
57.1
61.1
66.8
39.6
51.4
21.7
24.1
47.8
45.7
64.3
43.7
61.9
108
72.5
17.8
52.4
60.2
5.1
35.1
103
59.4
57.3
109
59.6
12.4
23.6
6.2
56.1
54.9
53.8
66.2
36.8
50.7
22.5
26.3
50.3
43.8
53.9
41
61
107
66
23.9
49.6
59.1
4.8
35.2
104
55.6
56.9
108
61.2
14.1
23
6.3
52.7
60.5
50.7
66.8
37.6
53.8
25.7
26.5
48.9
42.5
54.7
37.7
60.5
103
52.4
27.1
49.5
60.7
5.7
32
102
52.6
58.8
105
65.1
13.6
22.2
6.3
55.9
59.1
50.5
66.2
42.2
56.8
24.9
27.8
43.4
41.5
52.5
37.7
61.9
98.4
44.4
28.6
47.2
64.4
5.6
30.7
97.4
48.8
62.9
104
69.7
14.7
21
6.1
58.6
67.6
52
65.3
47.1
59.4
21.5
27.2
42.4
44.5
51.7
39.1
62.3
94
37
28.9
45.1
66.2
5
29.5
98.6
46.3
64.9
103
70.9
15
19.3
6.3
59.5
71.7
52.4
64.7
45.7
61.9
18.7
27.3
41.5
44.4
50.3
41
62.8
92
27.5
28.4
37.8
68.5
4.6
27.3
100
43.2
66.4
106
69.4
12.5
18.3
6.1
61.7
69.7
51.8
64.2
47.1
67.7
15.8
26.7
34.2
41.7
50.4
42.2
61.6
88
21.6
28.3
32.1
68
4.4
24.6
106
39.7
63.7
106
64.7
10.7
17.9
6.7
65.9
64
47.4
62.3
47.7
69.4
12.4
26.4
30.5
39.6
45.3
43.3
59
84
17.2
27.9
27.1
65.2
3.7
25.1
107
36.3
64.2
103
58.8
9
16.8
6.7
67
61.9
45.3
60.2
45
68.4
12.8
23.1
29.6
35.2
40.2
44.2
62.2
89.2
13.7
28.7
33.4
66.8
4.5
44.5
113
40.2
68.2
106
48.9
19.8
15.5
14.4
73
62
58.5
63.8
47.1
71.7
13.4
22
27.9
33.9
38.8
52.3
74.6
95.7
14.6
34.2
40.6
74.5
7.2
64.9
130
53.9
79.2
116
58.5
36.7
29.3
15.3
79.8
67.6
60.8
69.2
50.9
83.2
23.6
35
35.6
43.5
42.6
67.8
80
95.5
16.2
37.8
42.9
82.5
6.7
92.2
148
61.5
82.3
119
61.3
44.5
37.9
19.2
81.8
68.3
63.1
72
54.8
93.5
30.5
38.6
41
48.6
39.5
79.4
82.5
97.8
16.3
40.8
46.6
80.5
6.1
106
171
69.3
86
121
71.1
42.2
38.5
18.3
81.4
70.9
65.5
72.4
56.4
108
33.4
46.9
43.3
49
38.4
85
85.2
99.8
18.5
46.2
45.4
81
9.8
117.4
156.9
86
90.2
127
86.6
40.6
40.5
21.7
79.8
71.3
71.3
74
55.6
124.1
37.9
54.4
52.4
53.6
38.2
88.7
2007
2.2
10.4
2.5
2008
5
14.3
2.8
2009
7.5
56.9
11.4
2010
5.3
46.1
8.8
2011
3.9
59.5
10.7
2012
1.1
64.3
10.9
2013
0.8
66.7
10.7
27
24
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Efectul Balassa-Samuelson
Tendinta existenta in cazul tarilor cu productivitate mai mare in sectorul bunurilor
comercializabile (T) comparativ cu sectorul bunurilor necomercializabile (NT) de a
inregistra niveluri mai ridicate ale inflatiei si apreciere reala a monedei nationale. Aceasta
evolutie este asociata procesului de convergenta a economiilor emergente catre cele
dezvoltate si este impulsionata de competitia pe plan international si de infuzia de capital
si tehnologii moderne realizata prin intermediul investitiilor straine in industriile
caracterizate de un raport ridicat intre contributia capitalului si respectiv a fortei de munca
la realizarea productiei.
Cum, in general, o productivitate in crestere antreneaza sporuri salariale, salariile din
sectorul T vor tinde sa se majoreze mai rapid decat cele din sectorul NT. Efectul BalassaSamuelson se bazeaza pe ipoteza ca pe piata fortei de munca vor aparea presiuni de
egalizare a castigurilor salariale in cele doua sectoare economice (sau de pastrare a
diferentei relative dintre acestea).
In conditiile unor sporuri de productivitate mai mici, sectorul NT nu poate face fata
acestor presiuni decat prin includerea in preturi a costurilor salariale suplimentare, astfel
incat preturile bunurilor necomercializabile vor creste mai repede decat preturile bunurilor
comercializabile. In cazul economiilor interdependente pe piata mondiala, diferente
inegale de crestere a productivitatii in sectoarele T si NT conduc, datorita efectului
Balassa-Samuelson, la rate diferite ale inflatiei.
Concret, tarile cu diferente mai mari de productivitate intre cele doua sectoare au rate ale
inflatiei mai mari. Din acest motiv, nivelul general al preturilor creste, de regula, mai rapid
in tarile in tranzitie decat in tarile dezvoltate, conducand la o apreciere in termeni reali a
cursului de schimb.