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specific n Romnia, poate fi extras din teoria ISD a economitilor cehi Josef
Brada i Vladimir Tomsik, legat de modelul lor de ciclu financiar de via al
ISD, n fapt o relaie stilizat ntre profituri, dividende i profituri reinvestite,
un model care conine trei faze: apariia, creterea i repatrierea profiturilor.
n linii teoretice generale, valabile pentru ara noastr i pentru toate rile
central i est europene s-a evaluat c a doua faz ncepe dup 10-12 ani de la
declanarea sau intrarea valului principal de investiii strine directe n ara
gazd. Dac faza a doua ncepe mai devreme, explicaia se afl n profiturile
nefiresc de mari realizate de investiiile strine directe n economia respectiv.
ntr-o manier cauzal acesta pare s fie i cazul Romniei, plasat n prezent
nc n stadiul al doilea al ciclului de via al dezvoltrii investiionale,
pe considerentul integrrii sale n Uniunea European (ateptarea unor
profituri mari regsindu-se drept cauz major) dar aflat ntr-o faz profund
descendent.
Exist ns i impedimentul c ptrunderea masiv a capitalului
strin sub forma ISD, ntre anii 2004 i 2008 nu a fost orientat ntr-o mai
mare msur ctre activitile care ncorporau un coninut ridicat de resurse
locale i, n principal, de tehnologie i cunotine, ceea ce ar fi putut favoriza
ameliorarea calitii factorilor de producie existeni n economia naional
pentru a-i specializa, iar recesiunea prelungit dup anul 2008 a diminuat
major acest proces. Romnia va intra mult prea curnd n stadiul al treilea,
ceea ce ridic problema unui nou deficit consistent i suplimentar celui deja
ridicat al balanei comerciale.
Ipoteza fundamental i original este legat de ratingul riscului
de ar ca semnal al oscilaiilor dinamicii ISD. Comportamentul major al
investitorului rmne valabil pentru toate investiiile, uor mai nuanat pentru
ISD, definit printr-un corolar bazat pe afirmaia conform creia frica este
mai puternic dect lcomia. Aceast abordare psihologic explic de ce n
practic nivelul ISD colapseaz mult mai repede dect se dilat sau crete,
semnalul credibil al variabilitii ateptate a ISD, n ultimele dou decenii
fiind consacrat de ratingul riscului de ar al ageniilor specializate, pentru
investitorul direct i ntreprinderile de investiii directe. Adevr valabil i n
economia Romniei, mai ales dup 1996 cnd nivelul ISD atinge ordinul de
mrime al miliardelor de USD, ipoteza fiind validat i testat i n sistemul
cibernetic economic naional, ISD se pot modela de o manier profund inedit
i cu valene finale de prognoz i simulare cu mare utilitate practic. Ceea
ce s-a ncercat i reuit n modelarea aplicat a fost corelarea ntr-un model
multiplicativ (eclectic) scorul i dinamica scorului riscului de ar cu ISD ca
nivel absolut, relativ sau pur i simplu cu ISD ca o cot din cadrul PIB.
Ageniile de rating au credibilitate pe pia i capteaz impactul
Revista Romn de Statistic nr. 3 / 2012
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AN ORIGINAL ECONOMETRIC
MODEL OF FDI IN ROMANIA
PhD Senior Lecturer Gheorghe SVOIU
PhD Candidate Lecturer Suzana POPA
University of Piteti
Abstract
The central theme of this paper is, as the title itself shows, the
econometric modelling of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), based on the
concept Euromoney s country risk rating. This article contains three sections,
the first part or the introduction is an approach of investment risk and, in
particular, introduces a new element in modelling investment, namely country
risk rating. Thus, a bridge is created towards the second section, which
essentially deals with the econometric modelling of foreign direct investment
(FDI) in Romania, after 1996, based on Euromoney s data (ECR). The
originality of this paper is underlined by the presence of a final model which
includes, as an exogenous variable, country risk rating in assessing the FDI
share of GDP as an endogenous variable. A final remark comments, from an
economic perspective, the results of the econometric modelling.
Keywords: foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth,
investment risk, country risk rating, econometric modelling (ECR).
The country risk rating as factorial variable
of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)
The motivation of approaching such an important subject as foreign
investment in general, and foreign direct investments, in particular, lies on
the complexity of the research carried out through a careful, systemic and
transdisciplinary analysis, and also by means of an econometric modelling of
a phenomenon of exceptional scale, predicted at the beginning as possible in a
double time universe (i.e., an increase in FDI to such a level as that achieved
over the last two decades, was considered possible in at least four decades by
Revista Romn de Statistic nr. 3 / 2012
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