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Regresie 03 Iunie 2021
Regresie 03 Iunie 2021
Anul PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile) Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
1999 33828.2 10855.5
2000 40525.7 10771.6
2001 45103.7 10657.3
2002 48719.1 9573.9
2003 51101.7 9569.4
2004 60369.2 9187.5
2005 79169.3 9159.1
2006 97251.4 6336.0
2007 127555.5 9488.4
2008 146586.6 9359.1
2009 125290.7 9017.1
2010 125540.9 8725.1
2011 131879.0 8522.7
2012 132809.5 8645.3
2013 143690.4 8569.4
2014 150678.1 8634.6
2015 160164.2 8525.7
2016 170048.2 8429.6
2017 187801.4 8631.0
2018 204518.9 8638.8
2019 237688.7 8493
200000.0
150000.0
100000.0
50000.0
0.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Indicatorii medii
a. Nivelul mediu al seriei cronologice
Se foloseste media aritmetica simpla.
b. Modificarea medie absoluta
c. Indicele mediu de dinamica
d. Ritmul mediu de modificare (modificare relativa/modificare procentuala).
In perioada 1999/2019, numarul mediu al populatiei ocupate a scazut de la an la an cu 118 mii persoane (cu 1.22%)
In perioada 1999/2019, valoarea medie a PIB in preturi comparabile a crescut cu 10193 milioane euro de la an la an
Pop ocupata (mii pers) (%) PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
98.7804 1.10
0.782368384689789 7.02635364379742
Dependenta dintre
Reprezentarea grafica a dependentei dintre 2 variabile se face cu ajutorul DIAGRAMEI DE IMPRASTIERE(DIAGRAME
SCATTER DIAGRAM. 250000.0
150000.0
100000.0
50000.0
0.0
6000.0 7000.0
9038 119062.875773128
testul Student
2.9462947375734
PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
33828.2 10855.5
40525.7 10771.6
45103.7 10657.3
48719.1 9573.9
51101.7 9569.4
60369.2 9187.5
79169.3 9159.1
97251.4 6336.0
127555.5 9488.4
146586.6 9359.1
125290.7 9017.1
125540.9 8725.1
131879.0 8522.7
132809.5 8645.3
143690.4 8569.4
150678.1 8634.6
160164.2 8525.7
170048.2 8429.6
187801.4 8631.0
204518.9 8638.8
237688.7 8493
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
9-2019
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.0
Y
PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
33828.2
40525.7
45103.7
48719.1
51101.7
60369.2
79169.3
97251.4
127555.5
146586.6
125290.7
125540.9
131879.0
132809.5
143690.4
150678.1
160164.2
170048.2
187801.4
204518.9
237688.7
150000.0
100000.0
50000.0
0.0
6000.0 7000.0 8000.0 9000.0 10000.0 11000.0 12000.0
(xi-xmediu)
1817.9 10855.5-9038
1734.0 10771.6-9038
1619.7 10657.3-9038
536.3 9573.9-9038
531.8 9569.4-9038
149.9 9187.5-9038
121.5 9159.1-9038
-2701.6 6336.0-9038
450.8 9488.4-9038
321.5 9359.1-9038
-20.5 9017.1-9038
-312.6 8725.1-9038
-514.9 8522.7-9038
-392.3 8645.3-9038
-468.2 8569.4-9038
-403.0 8634.6-9038
-511.9 8525.7-9038
-608.0 8429.6-9038
-406.6 8631.0-9038
-398.8 8638.8-9038
-544.6 8493-9038
media
ata (mii persoane)
covarianta -30662862.1632631
abaterea standard pt X 958.652470111455 radical din (919014.5585)
abaterea standard pt Y 56585.5805639438 radical din (3201927928)
dispersia lui X 919014.558450793
dispersia lui Y 3201927927.75857
coeficientul de corelatie liniara -0.56525670039018 (-30662862.16)/(958.65*56585.58)
Legatura dintre PIB si populatia ocupata in perioada 1999-2019 este liniara, i
405285420.276802
170464147483575.00
420602.713433784
a este coeficientul termenului liber, nu are semnificatie din punct de vedere economic.
Reprezinta valoarea lui y cand x este 0.
Valoarea PIB cand populatia ocupata este 0.
b este coeficientul de regresie (panta dreptei de regresie)
daca b este mai mare decat 0, legatura este directa (creste X, creste si y)
daca b este egal cu 0, nu exista legatura intre cele 2 variabile.
daca b este mai mic decat 0, este legatura inversa (o variabila creste si una scade).
-13522322213.9991
-33.3649362584117
Daca populatia ocupata creste cu o unitate(o mie de persoane), valoarea PIB va scadea cu 33, 36 milioane euro.
Y
PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile) X patrat
33828.2 117841880.25
40525.7 116027366.56
45103.7 113578043.29
48719.1 91659561.21
51101.7 91573416.36
60369.2 84410156.25
79169.3 83889845.5396
97251.4 40144896
127555.5 90030303.8649
146586.6 87593314.3569
125290.7 81308453.0944
125540.9 76126497.5025
131879.0 72636244.8361
132809.5 74741212.09
143690.4 73434616.36
150678.1 74556317.16
160164.2 72687560.49
170048.2 71058156.16
187801.4 74494161
204518.9 74628865.44
237688.7 72131049
2500320.4 1734551916.8
determinantul sistemului
deteminant caracteristic a SUMMARY OUTPUT
coeficientul a
punct de vedere economic. Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
X, creste si y) Standard Error
Observations
ila creste si una scade).
deteminant caracteristic b ANOVA
coeficientul b
Regression
ane), valoarea PIB va scadea cu 33, 36 milioane euro. Residual
Total
Intercept (a)
b Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
XY
10855.5*10855.5 367221793.814433
10771.6*10771.6 436526700.721588
10657.3*10657.3 480683662.050947
9573.9*9573.9 466431647.368421
9569.4*9569.4 489012749.344978
9187.5*9187.5 554641704.394059
9159.1*9159.1 725122344.418502
6336*6336 616184943.566463
9488.4*9488.4 1210301802.04746
9359.1*9359.1 1371923371.41174
9017.1*9017.1 1129761525.52994
8725.1*8725.1 1095350349.94299
8522.7*8522.7 1123963605.04755
8645.3*8645.3 1148177908.26526
8569.4*8569.4 1231340363.27676
8634.6*8634.6 1301045154.78108
8525.7*8525.7 1365511979.39932
8429.6*8429.6 1433438388.26044
8631*8631 1620914118.93347
8638.8*8638.8 1766797499.9033
8493*8493 2018690525.13477
21953042137.6
Regression Statistics
0.56525670039018
0.319515137335994 0.319515137335994
0.283700144564204
49073.5930756835
21
df SS
1 21484353273.1324
19 45756133209.7976
20 67240486482.93
MS F Significance F
21484353273.1324 8.92126767613547 0.007579129016731
2408217537.35777
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
4.1429629694031 0.000552779383012 208114.307655648 633091.1 208114.3
-2.98684912175615 0.007579129016731 -56.7452984112867 -9.984574 -56.7453
Populatia totala ocupata (mii
persoane) Residual Plot
200000
Residuals
100000
0
-100000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 0
00 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0.
60
-200000 70 80 1 90 1 100 10 20
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
Upper 95.0%
633091.1
-9.984574
X
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
10855.5
10771.6
10657.3
9573.9
9569.4
9187.5
9159.1
6336.0
9488.4
9359.1
9017.1
8725.1
8522.7
8645.3
8569.4
8634.6
8525.7
8429.6
8631.0
8638.8
8493
189790.2
Y
PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
33828.2
40525.7
45103.7
48719.1
51101.7
60369.2
79169.3
97251.4
127555.5
146586.6
125290.7
125540.9
131879.0
132809.5
143690.4
150678.1
160164.2
170048.2
187801.4
204518.9
237688.7
2500320.4
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept (a)
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane) (b)
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
tistics
0.56525670039018
0.319515137335994
0.283700144564204
49073.5930756835
21
df SS MS F Significance F
1 21484353273.13 21484353273.13 8.921268 0.007579
19 45756133209.80 2408217537.36
20 67240486482.93
100000
0
-100000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 0
00 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0.
60
-200000 70 80 1 90 1 100 10 20
Populatia totala ocupata (mii persoane)
Significance F
9037.62666666667
erori
Residuals
-24581.4691864365
-20683.2594782556
-19918.8782431697
-52451.0652429664
-50218.5776299316
-53693.19645551
-35839.3302367513
-111951.065752749
23533.6876173173
38250.6972563907
5543.64818662933
-3951.10837821959
-4364.73175729209
656.662819735357
9005.15377851646
18168.268949467
24020.930598686
30698.562923234
55171.4787018136
72149.1546898551
100454.436839636
Y
PIB (milioane euro, preturi comparabile)
33828.2
40525.7
45103.7
48719.1
51101.7
60369.2
79169.3
97251.4
127555.5
146586.6
125290.7
125540.9
131879.0
132809.5
143690.4
150678.1
160164.2
170048.2
187801.4
204518.9
237688.7
2500320.4
119062.875773128 medie
SST=SSR+SSE
ANOVA
df SS
Regression 1 21484353273.1324
Residual 19 45756133209.7976
Total 20 67240486482.93
(yi-ymediu) la patrat
7264953586.14369
6168086948.88795
5469959680.47205
4948248907.8732
4618719404.53878
3444951672.09773
1591500506.43565
475739971.655482
72125327.1342883
757557311.298787
38786138.2026349
41964382.6968458
164252350.084071
188969480.196838
606514084.600542
999522641.064583
1689319426.49435
2599504272.89265
4724988464.53392
7302724688.90194
14072097236.724
(suma patratelor erorilor) 67240486482.93
MS F Significance F
21484353273.1324 8.92126767613547 0.007579129
2408217537.35777
MSR=SSR/k 21484353273/1
MSE=SSE/(n-k-1) 45756133210/(21-1-1) 2408217537
F calculat MSR/MSE 8.9212676761 21484353273/2408217537
tate de 95%, putem afirma faptul ca modelul de regresie identificat intre PIB si populatia ocupata este valid (corect identificat din punct d
(y ajustat -ymediu) la patrat
3678814053.78354 (58409.64-119062.87)*(58409.64-1109062.87)
3347074872.25639
2920353756.71111
320149628.815474
314799264.662328
25005142.3994387
16437223.7898105
8125147763.51098
226232417.460487
115067203.651505
468134.602113279
108766138.47391
295180887.204483
171346901.633763
244057909.751638
180820707.524924
291740084.735551
411553076.66302
184065464.74862
177071626.484115
330201014.269241
21484353273.13
21484353273/2408217537