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Noulmodeldebusinessal bnciloriprovocrilelui
NicolaeDnil MembrualCAalBNR
Sinaia,13februarie2013
Sumar (1)
Decetrebuiesseschimbemodelulde businessalbncilor? Cumarputeaartanoulmodeldefinanare? Ceprovocriexistpentrusectorulbancardin Romnia?
Educaiafinanciar (3)
Trecut Cauzelecrizeifinanciare Prezent Produselebancare de astzi Viitor Urmtoareacrizva avea altecauzedectceadin 2007
"YoucanhavethefearofGodorthesocializationofrisk,butyou cannothavebothatonce."
(JamesGrant,"Banksneedtorediscovertheancientartofcaution",FinancialTimes,14December 2012)
Cenuafuncionatnmodeluldebanking (4)
A Lichiditateapieei
Activele potfivndutedoarlasumesub preulpieei
P Lichiditateafinanrii
Datoriapetermenscurtnupoatefi rostogolit Finanareaobinutprinndatorare petermen scurtdisparerapid
dezechilibrulmaturitilor devinedezechilibrullichiditii
4,5 6 8
BaselII Min 2 4 8
Cerineledelichiditate
2015 Indicator delichiditateimediat
Sursa: BRI
2016 70%
2017 80%
2018 90%
2019 100%
60%
Parc niciodat nu avem timp s facem un lucru bun de la nceput, dar gsim totdeauna timp s l facem din nou.
Alternativalafinanareapetermenlung (6)
Companiiledeasigurriifonduriledepensii
Avantaje Nuexistproblemedematuritate Dezavantaje Activelesuntpreamici
Asigurrileaufostunuldintresectoarele Reglementarenupermiteachiziiade maipuinafectatedecriz activepuin lichide,cumaturitilungi Fondurile depensiiaunevoiede plasamentelucrativencontextul dobnzilorsczuteialpasivelorpe termenmediuncretere Tradiional activelenusuntdatorii
Alternativalafinanareapetermenmediu (7)
10
Alternativalafinanareapetermenscurt (8)
Finanarea"delaegallaegal"
Avantaje Costuri mici Soluiinfunciedenevoileclientului Concuren mare Dezavantaje Fonduriredusecomparativ cubncile Nuafosttestatntimpuluneicrize
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DezechilibrealebncilordinRomnia(9)
Romnia:pondereamaturitilorpnla1anipeste1 anntotaldepozite,credite
Depozite 1an Dec2007 Dec2009 Sep 2012
Sursa:BNR
Credite > 1an 21,1 29,4 31,6 1an 48,9 42,7 39,2 > 1an 51,1 57,3 60,8
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ReorientareabncilordinRomnia(10)
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ExemplulHandelsbanken,Suedia
Soluiibancare: "tailoredtothecustomer'sneeds" Politicabnciicomerciale: "puttingcustomerfirst" Modeluldebusinessalbnciicomerciale: "backtothefuture"
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PoliticamonetaraBNR (11)
Managementullichiditii Ratadobnziiiratainflaiei Supraveghereabancarninteriorulcriteriilor zoneieuro
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Vmulumescpentruatenie!
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Bibliografieselectiv
Brunnermeier,MarkusK.,GortonGary,andKrishnamurthyArvind ,LiquidityMismatch (workinprogress) Brunnermeier,MarkusK.,DongGang,andPalia DariusBanksNonIntereset Incomeand SystemicRisk,(workinprogress) GrantJ.Banksneedtorediscovertheancientartofcaution,FinancialTimes,December14 2012 LanePhilipR.FinancialGlobalisation andtheCrisis,BISWorkingPapersNo.397,December 2012 MarshallP.Centralbanksshouldaimbeyondinflationtargets,FinancialTimes,December 142012 DeloitteMovingforwardintheageofreregulation2013BankingIndustryOutlook Ernst&YoungMakingtherightmovesGlobalbankingoutlook2012 2013 Ernst&YoungTimeforboldactionGlobalbankingoutlook2013 2014 McKinsey&Company DayofreckoningforEuropeanretailbanking,July2012 PutnamInvestmentsFromcrisistofinancialreform:TheoutlookforU.S.andEuropean banks,October2012 TheEconomistFillingthebankshapedhole,December15th 2012 TheEconomistEmbracingthealternatives,December15th 2012
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