Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Bucureti, 2014
Cuprins
MODULUL 1......................................................................................................................................... 5
Problematic general instabilitate, performan i competitivitate ............................................ 5
Simptome ale instabilitii n mediul economico-social ..................................................................... 5
Tem de discuie: Criza resurselor globale ................................................................................ 7
Tema de discuie: Indexul sentimentului economic ................................................................... 9
Performan economic competitivitate cretere economic durabil .................................... 10
Tem de discuie: Nivelul productivitii n Romnia ............................................................. 15
Creterea economic n rile UE11 .............................................................................................. 18
Tem de discuie: Costul unitar al muncii ................................................................................ 20
Tem de discuie: Convergena n distribuia veniturilor ....................................................... 20
Tem de discuie: European growth and renewal ................................................................... 22
Tem de discuie: Annual Growth Survey - Analiza anual a creterii (AAC) 2013 ........... 22
Modelul de competitivitate a lui M. Porter....................................................................................... 24
Tem de discuie: Raportul Competitivitii Globale 2014-2015 ........................................... 28
Tem de discuie: Anuarul Competitivitii n lume ............................................................... 29
Tem individual: Comentai dinamica evalurilor pentru competitivitatea Romniei n
viziunea IMD ............................................................................................................................... 33
Tem de discuie: Cercul virtuos/vicios al dezvoltrii ............................................................. 35
Strategia Europa 2020 ........................................................................................................................ 36
Tem de discuie: Raportul Competitivitii UE 2013 ............................................................ 41
Tem de discuie: Ipoteza Europei cu mai multe viteze ...................................................... 42
Nivelul i dinamica PIB .................................................................................................................. 43
PIB-ul i nivelul de trai ................................................................................................................... 45
PIB nivel european i indicator de politic economic i social ............................................. 49
OUTPUT-ul PIB.............................................................................................................................. 51
Romnia n proieciile FMI ............................................................................................................ 51
Schimbarea modelului de cretere economic.............................................................................. 52
Tem de discuie: Schimbare major pentru clasa de mijloc ................................................. 60
Tem de discuie: Clasa mijlocie n criz: Evoluia inegalitii n Romnia de la valori
socialiste la valori ultracapitaliste ............................................................................................. 62
Antreprenoriatul soluie de cretere economic............................................................................ 63
Tem de discuie: profilul antreprenorului / antreprenoriatului n Romnia ...................... 64
2
Observaie:
Pasajele / paragrafele n limba englez sunt opionale; rolul lor este informativ.
MODULUL 1: :
Problematic general instabilitate, performan i competitivitate
Concepte asociate
(des)Cretere economic
Competitivitate
Criza
(Dez)Echilibru
Hazard
Incertitudine
Perturbaii
Prosperitate
Risc
Variabilitate
Volatilitate
Vulnerabilitate
Intensificarea omajului noi segmente ale populaiei afectate major (tinerii absolveni de
nvtmnt superior devin vulnerabili!!!)
Ritmuri mai rapide de consum a unor resurse naturale sau de nrutire a unor condiii de
mediu
dificultatea de a rspunde unor cerine (de ex., generate ridicarea unor standarde de calitate
sau ale unei suprastructuri)
de exemplu: manifestarea unor ntrzieri, apariia unor noi modele sociale/de afaceri (in mediu virtual):
publicitate online, forumuri ale clientilor, grupuri de lobby, reele sociale, triburi digitale, modele de
afceri B2B, C2C, B2P
evidenierea unor legturi netradiionale de tip feed-back, formarea de parteneriate inedite etc.;
ieirea din tipare tradiionale; Ex: legea Pareto1 sau legea 20/80 - "80% din efecte sunt generate
de 20% din cauze. Mai rmne valabil Legea Pareto n economia digital?
Ex: Orae falimentate
Ex: superdatele sau big data, braindrain, brain rental
Ex: noi forme de munc
apariia unor noi legi (empirice) legea Moore2, legea randamentelor n cretere pentru resursa
informaional
Legea a fost enunta de V. F. Pareto (1848-1923) n legtura cu posesia unor terenuri n proporie de 80% de ctre 20%
din cei mai bogai oameni ai timpului; este folosit ca principiu al managementului 20% din personal realizeaz 80% din
rezultate, 20% din produsele vndute aduc 80% din cifra de afaceri, etc.
2
Revista Electronics Magazine (1965) a publicat o lucrare a lui G. Moore, n care acesta estim c numrul de circuite
integrate se va dubla anual, proces ce va fi nsotit de o reducere pe msura a preurilor. Cunoscut sub denumirea de "Legea
lui Moore", aceast observaie a descris dezvoltarea extraordinar a tehnologiei in intreaga lume. Moore i-a revizuit
observatia n 1975, pentru a adauga faptul c numrul tranzistorilor inclusi intr-un circuit integrat se dubleaz la aproximativ
doi ani. Se poate spune ca "Legea lui Moore" a constituit baza pe care au fost create microprocesoare de ctre o industrie a
semiconductorilor n plin avnt; aceste "creiere ale computerelor", alturi de alte tipuri de circuite integrate, au facut posibil
apariia i dezvoltarea PC-ului, a Internetului, a telefoanelor mobile i a jocurilor video. Ca impact economic, n afara acestei
observaii cu privire la creterea complexitii circuitelor integrate, "Legea lui Moore" sugereaz i o scdere a costurilor: pe
msur ce componentele pe baz de siliciu ctig in performanta, preul lor de producie scade.
6
Metode de tip analiz a eficienei/eficacitii (analiza cost-beneficiu, analiza riscbeneficiu, analiza cost-utilitate etc.)
Raportul de avertisment privind potenialul de criz - early warning
early warning semnal de avertizare - conceptul a fost dezvoltat pentru situaiile de prevenire a
conflictelor i de violene pe scar larg. Recent, experiena din sud-estul Europei, mai ales din perspectiva
UNDP, a impus lrgirea acestui concept. Crizele din aceast parte a lumii au fost provocate de proasta
conducere a unor economii instabile, de incapacitatea statului de a furniza bunuri publice de baz, cum ar fi
meninerea ordinii i impunerea legii, de incapacitatea actorilor politici de a mpri echitabil resursele ntre
diversele grupuri etnice. Din moment ce aceste state nu au capacitatea de a analiza politicile, aceste rapoarte
ar trebui s avertizeze asupra erorilor de politici publice i s ofere soluii de rezolvare a tensiunilor prin
monitorizarea evoluiilor politice, sociale i economice, n special a celor care risc s degenereze n situaii
de criz. Extinderea conceptului este justificat i de o alt realitate sud-est european: statele de aici sunt
fie prea noi, fie prea slabe, astfel nct n aproape toate aceste ri are loc un proces de redefinire a rolului
statului.
Tem de discuie: Criza resurselor globale a venit deja, dei omenirea nu vrea s vad
c am depit limitele. Cum va arta lumea peste 40 de ani?
La 40 de ani de la apariia celebrei lucrri Limits to Growth"3, care la vremea respectiv a creat o und
de oc n toat lumea, liderii Clubului de la Roma au lansat raportul 2052: urmtorii 40 de ani
globali", care traseaz ngrijorrile viitoare. Cum va arta lumea peste 40 de ani?
Populaia nu va crete peste opt miliarde, femeile vor fi interesate mai mult de locul de munc dect de
a face copii, creterea economic nu va fi de patru ori mai mare, cum cred unii analiti, ci de numai 2,2
ori, iar criza resurselor se va accentua. Toate acestea vor ubrezi sustenabilitatea creterii economice,
arat raportul.
Ne poate ajuta capitalismul s schimbm fluxul de investiii? Nu. Capitalismul este fcut s aloce capitalul ctre
cele mai profitabile proiecte, nu ctre ceea ce societatea are nevoie. Capitalismul nu va rezolva aceast
4
problem", a spus Jorgen Randers , n prezentarea raportului actual. Mai mult, consumul total i va
ncetini creterea, el nu va putea fi susinut, iar dumanul cel mare al asigurrii bunstrii va fi viziunea
5
pe termen scurt .
Figura 1. Epuizarea resurselor naturale dintr-o privire
considerat cea mai bine vndut carte despre mediul nconjurtor, raportul prezica c, Dac se menin tendinele actuale
de cretere ale populaiei mondiale, ale industrializrii, contaminrii ambientale, produciei de alimente i epuizrii
resurselor, aceast planet va atinge limitele creterii n urmtorii 100 de ani. Rezultatul cel mai probabil ar fi o scdere
subit i incontrolabil att a populaiei ct i a capacitii industriale. (Dennis Meadows, Limitele Creterii, 1972)
4
Randers, J., (2012) 2052: A global forecast for the next forty years, The Future In Practice, The State Of Sustainability
Leadership 2012
5
http://adevarul.ro/economie/stiri-economice/clubul-roma-avertizeaza-criza-resurselor-accentua1_50b9f7da7c42d5a663ad588d/index.html
3
Tem de discuie:
Figura 2. IMM n Romnia vector al creterii economice?
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/
9
103.8
101.9
102.4
100.4
98.1
104.7
101
105
101.2
105.3
102.5
106.3
106.5
102
102.6
106.4
102.1
105.8
104.6
103.6
102.2
100.6
98.8
101
99.6
97.7
95
95.6
95.3
97.6
97.3
97.4
99.9
99.8
97.6
94.7
2013M10 2013M11 2013M12 2014M01 2014M02 2014M03 2014M04 2014M05 2014M06 2014M07 2014M08 2014M09
Romania
EU (28 countries)
Tabelul 1. Comparaie Romnia vs. EU28 - Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment 7
Sursa: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/2014/esi_2014_09_en.pdf
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/documents/2013/esi_2013_09_en.pdf
10
11
2013
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
109
109
109
109
108
108
108
108
108
108
109
109
109
109
109
109
109
109
108
108
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech
Republic
Denmark
Germany
121
35
120
37
118
38
116
40
116
43
118
44
120
44
120
46
120
47
119
47
78
126
116
79
124
116
80
124
115
83
122
115
81
124
116
82
123
115
81
128
120
81
125
123
81
126
123
80
125
124
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Croatia
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
57
143
94
101
110
58
107
91
47
52
253
62
144
91
102
110
59
105
93
50
55
254
66
145
92
105
108
60
105
93
53
58
270
70
146
90
105
108
62
104
94
57
62
274
69
131
93
103
107
65
104
99
58
64
263
64
128
95
103
109
63
104
100
54
58
252
64
128
89
99
109
60
103
97
55
62
262
69
128
81
96
109
60
101
93
60
67
265
71
129
76
96
109
61
100
91
64
72
263
72
126
75
95
108
61
98
86
67
74
264
As highlighted in the 2009 Report on the measurement of economic performance and social progress by Stiglitz, Sen and
Fitoussi, actual individual consumption (AIC) per capita is an alternative indicator better suited to describe the material
welfare situation of households as it takes account of widespread differences across countries in the shares of public
financing for the provision of education and health services to individuals.
9
Indicii de volum ai PIB i AIC reprezint volumul real al PIB-ului i AIC-ului pe cap de locuitor. n cazul n care indicele
de volum al PIB (sau AIC) pe cap de locuitor este mai mare de 100, nivelul PIB (sau AIC) al rii respective pe cap de
locuitor este mai mare dect nivelul corespunztor al UE n ansamblu. Indicii ar trebui interpretai cu o oarecare precauie,
innd seama de marjele de eroare. Volumele reale implic faptul c cifrele au fost ajustate pentru a ine seama de
diferenele de nivel al preurilor ntre ri, utiliznd PPC-uri, i sunt exprimate n raport cu media Uniunii Europene (UE27 =
100).
12
2004
63
80
129
128
2005
63
80
131
125
2006
63
79
131
126
2007
61
78
132
124
2008
64
81
134
124
2009
65
84
132
126
2010
66
87
130
126
2011
67
86
129
129
2012
67
86
127
130
2013
67
87
127
129
Poland
Portugal
51
77
51
80
52
79
54
79
56
78
60
80
63
80
65
77
67
76
68
75
Romania
35
35
39
43
49
50
51
51
53
54
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
United
Kingdom
87
57
116
127
87
60
114
122
88
63
114
123
88
68
117
125
91
72
119
124
86
73
114
120
84
74
114
123
84
75
116
125
84
76
115
126
83
76
112
127
125
124
122
118
114
112
Sursa: Eurostat (tec00114)
108
105
104
106
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
n 2013, AIC pe cap de locuitor exprimat n PPS a fost pentru Romnia de 48% din
nivelul mediu pe UE27. Romnia a trecut pe ultimul loc n clasamentul european al nivelului
de trai, n varianta consumului individual efectiv (AIC), potrivit datelor pe anul 2012
comunicate de Eurostat. n varianta clasic de urmrire a nivelului de trai, care msoar PIB
pe locuitor la paritatea puterilor de cumprare standard, ne-am meninut pe penultima poziie,
naintea Bulgariei.
Tem de discuie: Consumption is a key indicator of citizens well-being, with housing,
energy, transport and food accounting for about half of total household expenditure
The study uses data on the development and structure of expenditure, to identify trends over the past
decade. For instance, the impact of the economic and financial crisis on actual individual consumption of
households was relatively moderate, as rising government consumption counterbalanced at least partly a more
significant contraction in household consumption. While the Baltic economies suffered most in 2009, household
spending continued to decline in Greece due to the deepening recession. The fall was sharpest in 2011.
Consumption in Greece is thought to decrease even further during the period of 2012-2013.
Multiple speeds. Despite some general trends in EU-27 data, detailed consumption patterns vary
significantly between Member States and the impact of the crisis on specific expenditure categories was also
quite varied. The report found that differences in the level of individual annual consumption per capita in euros
are large, ranging from 35,000 euros in Luxembourg and 29600 euros in Denmark to 6,400 euros in Hungary in
2011 (respectively 3,400 euros in Bulgaria and 4,200 euros in Romania based on last available data for 2010).
However, this spread is more than halved when differences in purchasing power are taken into account.
Even halved those differences of consumption expenditure are infallible witness that the EU27 in not a
standard club but rather an association of fundamentally different economies. Consumption differences of this
order are not of quantitative character but reveal qualitative gaps between the 27 member states.
The crisis effect. In such an environment the on-going financial crisis in Europe has hit harder the
countries under IMF-EU-ECB programmes, that is Greece, Portugal, Ireland and the Baltic economies.
According to the above mentioned Eurostat report of them all, the Baltics and Greece were the most severely
affected, with loss of actual individual consumption (in volume terms) of 12% to 15% between 2008 and 2011.
While actual individual consumption started to recover in the Baltic countries in 2011, the contraction
accentuated in Greece, in connection with the deepening recession and debt crisis, so that the losses between
2008 and 2011 increased to nearly 15%. Obviously the Greek vicious cycle is thought to continue also during
the two year period of 2012-2013, with further reduction of incomes and consumption.
In Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Ireland and Poland actual individual consumption also fell by between
5% and 9% from 2008 to 2011, while it expanded by between 5% and 8% in Luxembourg and Sweden and
other rich EU member states. The apparent conclusion is that the European Union is regrouping countries and
regions of so large income and consumption differences, that the club cannot be considered as a uniform
economic space.
13
Figura 5. AIC per capita - n 2011 (euro sau PPS per capita)
Figure 5 shows that differences in the level of actual individual consumption per capita in euros
are large, ranging from 35.000 euros in Luxembourg and 29 600 euros in Denmark to 6 400 euros in Hungary
in 2011 (respectively 3.400 euros in Bulgaria and 4 200 euros in Romania based on last available data for 2010).
However, this spread is more than halved when differences in purchasing power are taken into account.
In addition, the effects of the financial and economic crisis have varied significantly. The Baltic
economies and Greece were the most severely affected, with loss of actual individual consumption (in volume
terms) of 12 % to 15 % between 2008 and 2011. While actual individual consumption started to recover in the
Baltic countries in 2011, the contraction accentuated in Greece, in connection with the deepening recession and
debt crisis, so that the losses between 2008 and 2011 increased to nearly 15 %. In Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria,
Ireland and Poland actual
individual consumption also fell by between 5 % and 9 % from 2008 to 2011, while it expanded by
between 5 % and 8 % in Luxembourg, Sweden and Poland. However, in 2011, the situation improved in most
Member States, with Ireland, Portugal and Greece being the main exceptions.
Figura 6.Impact of the crisis on actual individual consumption (volume figures, change in %)
Figura 7. Overview of the composition of EU27 expenditure in 2011 (COICOP2 figures, EU-27 expenditure in
euros per capita and % of total expenditure)
Euro per
inhabitant
Percentage of
total
Total
14,700
100.0
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
1,900
13.0
Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics
500
3.6
Clothing and footwear
800
5.2
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
3,500
24.2
Furnishings, household equipment and routine
maintenance of the house
800
5.6
Health
500
3.7
Transport
1,900
13.0
Communications
400
2.6
Recreation and culture
1,300
8.7
Education
200
1.1
Restaurants and hotels
1,200
8.5
Miscellaneous goods and services
1,600
10.7
Surs: Eurostat (nama_co3_c)
Euro per
inhabitant
Percentage of
total
3,600
1,000
200
100
800
100.0
27.5
5.0
3.8
22.3
200
200
400
200
200
0
100
200
4.9
6.0
11.0
4.9
5.8
1.2
3.3
4.4
15
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
163.9
135.5
127.3
116
114.5
113.4
111.2
111
108.8
108.8
108.8
108.8
108.6
107.1
107
100
99.9
99.4
92.7
91.8
91.7
82.6
81.1
80.1
76.7
74.6
74.3
71.9
70.6
70
66.9
51.7
43.4
40
20
0
29.4 31.3
34.6 36.1
39.7
51.7
43.3
20
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
50
40
53.4
48.8
45.9
45.8
45.6
45.5
42.8
39.9
39.7
39.2
37.5
37.3
32.2
32.2
32.1
32.1
60
21.6
21.4
20.2
17.1
13.2
13.1
11.5
11.4
10.6
10.6
8.4
5.6
4.9
30
20
10
0
16
35
30
25
20
15
10
3.2 3.8
4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Romania
EU (27 countries)
EU (28 countries)
20
16
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
9.8
6.8
4.5
7.3
5.4 6.2 5.4
1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 2.1 1.5
4
2.4
1.4 1.3 0.3 0.6
-0.3
-0.5 -0.5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -1.5
2010 2011 2012 2013
-4.2
-5.6
3
1.6 2
1.4 2.2
1.4
1
Romania
EU (27 countries)
EU (28 countries)
Labour productivity per hour worked is calculated as real output (deflated GDP measured in chain-linked volumes,
reference year 2005) per unit of labour input (measured by the total number of hours worked). Measuring labour productivity
per hour worked provides a better picture of productivity developments in the economy than labour productivity per person
employed, as it eliminates differences in the full time/part time composition of the workforce across countries and years.
17
Sursa: Locul de munc i productivitatea sa: o comparaie ntre PIB-ul pe ora lucrat n Romnia i n Europa, Marin Pan, 16.10.2012
Korczyc, E., Laco, M., Vincelette, G.A., Madzarevic-Sujster, S., Loichinger, E., (2013). EU11 regular economic report:
macroeconomic report - economic recovery on hold: special topic - determinants of job creation in EU11: evidence from
firm level data. Washington DC; World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17854302/eu11-regulareconomic-report-macroeconomic-report-economic-recovery-hold-special-topic-determinants-joc-creation-eu11-evidencefirm-level-data
18
2012
2013
2014
UE11
Bulgaria
Croaia
Cehia
Estonia
Letonia
Lituania
Ungaria
Polonia
Romnia
Slovenia
Slovacia
0,8
0,8
-2,0
-1,3
3,2
5,6
3,6
-1,7
1,9
0,7
-2,3
2,0
0,8
1,2
-0,4
-0,4
3,0
3,6
3,0
0,3
1,0
1,7
-2,3
0,7
2,0
2,1
1,5
1,6
4,0
4,1
3,5
1,5
2,0
2,2
-0,1
2,0
Activitatea economic slab la nivelul rilor UE11 a avut drept consecin pierderea unor
locuri de munc. Incertitudinea prelungit, restructurrile la nivel de organizaii precum i recesiunea
nregistrat n unele ri UE11 au condus la creteri ale valorilor omajului n toat aceast regiune.
Dup ce s-a stabilizat undeva n jurul valorii de aproximativ 10% n cea mai mare parte din 2010 i
2011, rata omajului a depit valoarea de 11% la nceputul anului 2013. Creterea numrului de
locuri de munc a nregistrat valori negative pe toat durata anului 2012, ceea ce a afectat domeniul
construciilor, al industriilor i n mod special - administraia public.
Chiar i n situaia n care exporturile nete au sprijinit creterea economic din 2012, raportul
observ c performanele comerciale n UE11 au fost dezamgitoare. Att exporturile ct i
importurile au nregistrat o frnare, n condiiile n care comerul mondial a staionat din cauza
creterii economice lente n rile cu venituri mari, precum i din cauza perioadelor recurente de
nencredere n viitorul monedei Euro. n anul 2013 importurile i exporturile UE11 au nceput s
scad, pe msur ce fluxurile comerciale intra-UE au nceput i ele s nregistreze un ritm ncetinit.
Dei expansiunea pe pieele non-UE a continuat s contribuie la generarea unor rezultate comerciale
favorabile pentru UE11, totui nu a putut compensa cererile slabe la export nregistrate din UE.
Fluxurile de investiii strine directe nete (FDI) ctre rile UE11 au rmas stabile, iar
datoria extern brut a crescut doar cu valori modeste datorit mprumuturilor suverane. Raportul
dintre datoria public i PIB a nregistrat i el o cretere uoar la nivelul anului 2012, pe fondul unor
consolidri fiscale mai sczute dect cele planificate.
n condiiile n care msurile fiscale stricte au nregistrat o relaxare n anul 2012, raportul
evideniaz c guvernele rilor UE11 i-au ndeplinit n mare parte angajamentele fiscale. n plus fa
de aceast situaie, aceste state i-au continuat reformele structurale fiscale pe termen mediu i lung,
n scopul de a-i consolida finanele publice. ntre timp, bncile centrale din rile UE11 i-au
accelerat politicile monetare de expansiune, depind poziiile permisive adoptate anterior. n ciuda
unei ameliorri substaniale nregistrat pe pieele financiare ncepnd din vara anului 2012, condiiile
de acordare a mprumuturilor bancare ctre debitori aparinnd economiei reale n rile UE11 au
rmas stricte. Cota mprumuturilor neperformante n rile UE11 a fost nc mare, ceea ce a nfrnat
creterea real a creditului. Inflaia a continuat i ea s se manifeste datorit nivelului sczut al cererii
pe pieele locale i datorit unui declin semnificativ al preurilor la energie.
Exist indicii conform crora regiunea UE11 i va continua creterea n 2013, dei ntr-un
ritm lent. Cu condiia ca zona economic Euro s se consolideze, perspectiva pe termen scurt la
nivelul rilor UE11 se ateapt s se mbunteasc treptat. n timp ce n anul 2013 nivelul creterii
economice n statele UE11 va continua s se situeze sub valoarea potenialului su real din cauza
cererii sczute manifestate pe piaa local, a constrngerilor fiscale continue i datorit stoprii
creterii creditrii precum i din cauza mediului extern caracterizat de provocri exist ns ateptri
conform crora procesul de cretere va fi reluat n anul 2014. Este posibil ca piaa muncii s poate
nregistra o revenire doar pe termen mediu.
Meninerea unei politici fiscale prudente i a unei creteri economice sustenabile n rile
UE11 rmne o prioritate pe baza creia s se reduc impactul advers al ocurilor poteniale
19
nregistrate n zona Euro. Politicile fiscale vor rmne restrictive, ns conform unor ateptri viteza
consolidrii fiscale va continua s se menin la cote sczute i prin urmare efectul acesteia asupra
creterii economice va fi mai puin negativ comparativ cu valorile din anul 2012. Politicile monetare
vor continua s sprijine creterea economic, nregistrndu-se n continuare reduceri la nivelul ratelor
stabilite prin politici n unele ri ale UE11, n timp ce alte ri vor adopta msuri neconvenionale,
chiar dac posibilitile de mbuntire a situaiei monetare sunt deja restrnse.
12
Sursa: Privind n prpastie: cum putem evita ca viitorul s arate i mai ru?
http://www.businessmagazin.ro/analize/servicii-financiare/privind-in-prapastie-cum-putem-evita-ca-viitorul-sa-arate-si-mairau-9813553
20
13
Li se recomand noilor state membre s flexibilizeze i mai mult piaa muncii, pentru a
facilita creterea ocuprii i mobilitatea forei de munc, s investeasc n educaie prin programe care
s faciliteze crearea de noi locuri de munc, s investeasc pentru ameliorarea calitii i atragerea
mai multor tineri pentru nvmntul superior, s transforme fenomenul de brain drain (emigrarea
13
The figure plots the (smoothed) histogram of the 144 projections for 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050. It shows average income
in EU11 as a share of EU15 income. As the projection horizon increases, the histograms become "fatter" because of
uncertainty about the long-term development of income per capita. As time progresses, the center of the smoothed histogram
moves to the right, with a larger share of observations around 0.81, which suggests close to full convergence.
14
Regular Economic Report: Coping with External Headwinds Special Topic: Drivers of Convergence in EU11, World
Bank, June 2012
21
celor calificai) n brain rental (nchirierea de competene din strintate i gsirea de stimulente
pentru readucerea specialistilor nalt calificai).
Tem de discuie: European growth and renewal: The path from crisis to recovery McKinsey Global Institute15
Europe is growing again, but the recovery is uneven and under threat from the continuing eurozone
debt crisis. Europe has significant strengths on which to build but needs to address profound long-term
challenges that could limit its future growth. McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) sets out a perspective on where
the European economy stands today, the challenges it faces, and the very considerable strengths on which it can
build. MGI also sets out seven priorities for action. Each requires joint action by policy makers and business
leaders. Findings include:
Economic growth is recovering unevenly. While most of Europe (defined as all members of
the European Union plus Norway and Switzerland) is expected to return to pre-crisis GDP levels by 2012,
recovery in Southern Europe, Ireland, and the United Kingdom is forecast to take considerably longer. The debt
crisis and speculation about the possibility of sovereign defaults cast doubt on the resilience of the recovery.
Europe has very significant, and sometimes underappreciated, strengths on which to build a
sustained recovery. As the world's largest integrated economy, Europe is home to 124 Fortune 500 corporations.
Several European countries have successfully reformed labor and product markets and can now serve as
examples for others to follow. Europe is home to some of the most vibrant cities in the world and has a high
quality of life.
All European economies face a set of profound long-term challenges that, if unaddressed, will
limit their future growth potential. Private- and public-sector deleveraging is only just starting and could weigh
on growth for some time. Structural imbalances have left Southern Europe with a 4.6 per cent current account
deficit today. Old-age dependency is set to double. Labor utilization is 20% below US levels, and Europes
productivity gap with the United States is widening again. Rising energy prices and competition from emerging
economies will place increasing strain on Europe.
Returning to a sustained path to economic growth and renewal will require innovation in European
policy making together with bold leadership from the private sector. The seven priorities highlighted are:
consolidating Europe's fiscal position, expanding the supply of skilled labor mainly through senior participation,
using structural reforms to fuel innovation and growth in services, boosting public-sector productivity,
unlocking the potential of sustainable resources, winning in tradable goods and services and supporting
innovation.
Tem de discuie: Annual Growth Survey - Analiza anual a creterii (AAC) 2013
Principalul mesaj al AAC este acela c, dei politicile UE ncep s dea rezultate deficitele scad,
tensiunile de pe pieele financiare se atenueaz i apar semne de mbuntire a competitivitii n unele state
membre este necesar continuarea reformei pentru a genera o cretere economic durabil i noi locuri de
munc. Comisia European consider c cele cinci prioriti prezentate n AAC 2011 (MEMO/11/821) rmn
valabile: continuarea unei consolidri fiscale difereniate i favorabile creterii economice; reluarea activitii
normale de creditare a economiei; promovarea creterii economice i a competitivitii n prezent i n viitor;
abordarea aspectelor legate de omaj i a consecinelor sociale ale crizei i modernizarea administraiei publice.
AAC subliniaz c situaia de pe piaa muncii necesit o reacie urgent. n ultimele 12 luni, numrul
omerilor a crescut cu 2 milioane, iar n prezent, numrul total al persoanelor care nu au un loc de munc fiind
de peste 25 de milioane; omajul pe termen lung a atins cote alarmante, iar, n multe ri, situaia tinerilor s-a
deteriorat n mod dramatic. AAC subliniaz prioritile n vederea pregtirii unei redresri generatoare de locuri
de munc, a mbuntirii capacitii de inserie profesional i a promovrii incluziunii sociale. Confruntate cu
o cretere a numrului de persoane aflate n cutarea unui loc de munc, statele membre ar trebui s promoveze
serviciile publice de ocupare a forei de munc i s accelereze politicile active n domeniul pieei forei de
munc, inclusiv asistena oferit persoanelor care i caut un loc de munc, stagii de ucenicie, sprijin acordat
antreprenorilor i stagii de calitate.
15
Roxburgh, C., Mischke , J., European growth and renewal: The path from crisis to recovery, July 2011; @McKinsey &
Company, http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/europe/european_growth_and_renewal_path_to_recovery
22
23
25
26
30