AFACERI IN MEDIU INSTABIL

2014 2015

Prof. dr. Daniela Borisov

Daniela.borisov@yahoo.com

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Cuprins:
- Introducere concepte, relevanta subiectului
- Simptome ale instabilitatii. Metode de analiza pentru
mediul intern/extern pentru o entitate economica
Evaluari ale competitivitatii macro.
Romania in strategia Europa 2020
- Teme de discutie:
Banca Mondiala 3I

AIMI 2014 - 2015

 Instabilitate concepte asociate, simptome si

metode de analiza
Concepte asociate

(des)Crestere economica
Competitivitate
Criza
(Dez)Echilibru
Hazard
Incertitudine
Perturbatii
Predictabilitate/impredictabilitate
Risc
Variabilitate
Volatilitate
Vulnerabilitate

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Simptome ale instabilitii n mediul economicosocial (1)

-

viteze mai mari de desfurare a unor fenomene:

Cresterea emisiilor de CO2,

Epuizarea la nivel global a resursei de APA (de o anumita calitate)
Intensificarea somajului noi segmente ale populatiei afectate major
Reducerea ciclurilor de viata ale produselor /tehnologiilor /industriilor
Ritmuri mai rapide de consum a unor resurse naturale sau de inrautarire a unor conditii de mediu

schimbri/ruperi/inversri de ritm pentru indicatori macroeconomici:

indicatori ce exprima cresterea economica rata de crestere anuala a PIB
schimbri de tendin (de exemplu, legi de cretere exponenial rata de penetrare a
telefoniei mobile, subtierea calsei de mijloc)

dificultatea de a raspunde unor cerinte (de ex., generate ridicarea unor

standarde de calitate sau ale unei suprastructuri)

Romania - rate mici de absorbtie a fondurilor europene

Noi tipuri de riscuri economice, sociale, tehnologice . riscuri cibernetice

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Simptome ale instabilitii n mediul

economico - social (2)
instabilitate in dinamic ptr. diversi indicatori, volatilitate, oscilatii,
amplitudini mai mari ntre limitele maxime i minime ale unui indicator

Exemplu: oscilatiile cursului de schimb valutar ptr. Romania. Stabilitatea cursului de schimb este unul dintre criteriile de la
Maastricht, de a caror indeplinire depinde adoptarea monedei europene de catre oricare stat membru al UE. Romania are ca
obiectiv intrarea in zona euro in 2014. Potrivit criteriilor de la Maastricht, moneda nationala poate fluctua intr-o banda de
variatie de plus/minus 15%, variatie care reprezinta aprecierea sau deprecierea procentuala maxima fata de media ultimilor
doi ani.
Incertitudinea genereaz volatilitate de ex., evoluia indicelui BET-FI . Piaa de capital are, prin definiie, un caracter
mai volatil dect alte piee (cea de mrfuri)

- dispersii mari fa de medie

ex. exprimarea decalajelor, convergenta slaba fata de

media europeana

Incertitudine in crestere dificultatea de a face previziuni pe termen lung sau

impredictabilitate / complexitate crescut a formelor de desfurare a unor procese de exemplu:
- manifestarea unor ntrzieri,
- apariia unor noi modele sociale/de afaceri (in mediu virtual): publicitate online, forumuri ale clientilor, grupuri de lobby,
retele sociale, triburi digitale
- evidenierea unor legturi netradiionale de tip feed-back,
- formarea de parteneriate inedite etc.;
AIMI 2014 - 2015

Simptome ale instabilitii n mediul

economico-social (3)
- ieirea din tipare tradiionale
Ex: legea Pareto sau legea 20/80 - "80% din efecte sunt generate de 20% din cauze. Legea a fost enuntata de Vilfredo Frederico Pareto (1848-1923) in legatura
cu posesia unor terenuri in proportie de 80% de catre 20% din cei mai bogati oameni ai timpului; este folosita ca principiu al managementului 20% din
personal realizeaza 80% din rezultate, 20% din produsele vandute aduc 80% din cifra de afaceri, etc.
-Mai ramane valabila Legea Pareto in economia digitala?
Ex: Orase falimentate
Ex: superdatele, braindrain
Ex: noi forme de munca

- ndeprtarea fa de tendine (divergena fa de o zon/regiune)

Ex: digital divide, convergenta in UE

- aparitia unor noi legi legea Moore, legea randamentelor in crestere pentru resursa informationala
Legea Moore - 1965, revista Electronics Magazine a publicat o lucrare a lui G. Moore, in care acesta observa ca numarul de circuite integrate se va
dubla in fiecare an, proces ce va fi insotit de o reducere pe masura a preturilor. Cunoscuta sub denumirea de "Legea lui Moore", aceasta observatie
a stat la baza unei dezvoltari extraordinare a tehnologiei in intreaga lume. Moore si-a revizuit observatia in 1975, pentru a adauga faptul ca
numarul tranzistorilor inclusi intr-un circuit integrat se dubleaza la aproximativ doi ani. Se poate spune ca "Legea lui Moore" a constituit baza pe
care au fost create microprocesoare de catre o industrie a semiconductorilor in plin avant. Aceste "creiere ale computerelor", alaturi de alte tipuri
de circuite integrate, au facut posibila aparitia si dezvoltarea PC-ului, a Internetului, a telefoanelor mobile si a jocurilor video. Impact economic. In
afara acestei observatii cu privire la cresterea complexitatii circuitelor integrate, "Legea lui Moore" sugereaza si o scadere a costurilor. Pe masura
ce componentele pe baza de siliciu castiga in performanta, pretul lor de productie scade. Microprocesoarele din ziua de azi conduc totul, de la
jucarii la schimbarea luminilor semaforului. O carte postala muzicala in valoare de doar cativa dolari contine un microprocesor mai puternic decat
cele mai rapide calculatoare mainframe produse cu cateva zeci de ani in urma.

- agravarea unor decalaje in timp/dispariti (regionale, de ex.) extremizarea saraciei severe,

excluziune sociala
AIMI 2014 - 2015

Simptome ale instabilitii n mediul

economico-social (4)
- transformarea unor probleme economice n fenomene sociale:
somaj saracie crestere economica
- conditionarea unor surse de instabilitate din anumite zone
culturale sau sociale n efecte economice negative conflicte
religioase/etnice, stramutari masive ale unor populatii, migratii
ale lucratorilor
Tema de discutie:
- Cercuri virtuoase in cresterea economica/dezvoltarea umana
- Cercuri vicioase .
AIMI 2014 - 2015

Metode de analiz
Analiza SWOT (Strenght, Weakness, Opportunity,
Threat)
Analiza SPIN (Situation, Problem, Implication,
Need Pay Off)
Analiza STEEP (Social, Technological, Economical,
Environmental and Political)
Analiza de impact CIA (Cross-impact analysis),
TIA (Trend impact analysis)
Metode de tip analiz a eficienei/eficacitii (analiza
cost-beneficiu, analiza risc-beneficiu, analiza costutilitate etc.)
AIMI 2014 - 2015

Raportul de avertisment privind potenialul de

criz - early warning
Conceptul a fost dezvoltat pentru situaiile de prevenire a conflictelor i de violene pe
scar larg.
Recent, experiena din sud-estul Europei, mai ales din perspectiva UNDP, a impus
lrgirea acestui concept. Crizele din aceast parte a lumii au fost provocate de
proasta conducere a unor economii instabile, de incapacitatea statului de a furniza
bunuri publice de baz, cum ar fi meninerea ordinii i impunerea legii, de
incapacitatea actorilor politici de a mpri echitabil resursele ntre diversele grupuri
etnice. Din moment ce aceste state nu au capacitatea de a analiza politicile, aceste
rapoarte ar trebui s avertizeze asupra erorilor de politici publice i s ofere soluii
de rezolvare a tensiunilor prin monitorizarea evoluiilor politice, sociale i
economice, n special a celor care risc s degenereze n situaii de criz.
Extinderea conceptului este justificat i de o alt realitate sud-est european: statele de
aici sunt fie prea noi, fie prea slabe, astfel nct n aproape toate aceste ri are loc
un proces de redefinire a rolului statului.

AIMI 2014 - 2015

Strategia Europa 2020

In prezent, Europa se confrunt cu provocri structurale majore - globalizarea, schimbrile climatice i

mbtrnirea populaiei. Criza economic imprim tuturor acestor probleme un caracter mult mai
presant, fapt ce impune un rspuns mai hotrt i mai coerent la nivel politic. Restabilirea stabilitii
macroeconomice i redirijarea finanelor publice ctre o cale durabil sunt eseniale pentru
creterea economic i ocuparea forei de munc.
Pornind de la acest tablou socio-economic, Uniunea Euroepeana a trebuit s-i defineasc direcia n
care i propune s evolueze pn n anul 2020, avnd ca punct de plecare - ianuarie 2011, dat la
care Agenda Lisabona 2000, va fi deja expirat.

3 mari formule de cretere economic, n decada urmatoare:

1. cretere economic inteligent (consolidarea cunoaterii, inovaie, educaie, societate digital);
2. cretere economic durabil (creterea eficienei n producie i a competitivitii);
3. cretere economic inclusiv (participare sporita pe pieele muncii, dobndirea de noi abiliti
profesionale i diminuarea srciei).
Noul plan strategic european i redefineste ambiia de a face din economia Europei cea mai performant din
lume i propune, n schimb, un model economico-social care s rspund provocrilor actuale, cum sunt
globalizarea accelerat, mbtrnirea populaiei i schimbrile climatice.
Comisia European a propus cinci obiective principale, care ar trebui ndeplinite pn n 2020:
75% din populaia cu vrsta cuprins ntre 20 i 64 de ani ar trebui s aib un loc de munc;
3% din PIB-ul UE ar trebui investit n cercetare-dezvoltare;
ndeplinirea obiectivului 20/20/20 n materie de clim i energie;
rata abandonului colar timpuriu ar trebui redus sub nivelul de 10% i cel puin 40% din generaia
tnr ar trebui s aib studii superiore;
numrul persoanelor ameninate de srcie ar trebui redus cu 20 de milioane.
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Pentru cele cinci obiective propuse de CE in noua strategie, optiunile Romaniei pot fi schitate astfel:
Rata de ocupare a populatiei cu varsta intre 20 si 64 de ani minimum 75 %. In stabilirea obiectivelor
complementare, tinerii trebuie vizati atat din perspectiva participarii lor la educatie si formare, cat si din perspectiva
evitarii riscului de excluziune sociala.
Nivelul investitiilor in cercetare si dezvoltare 3% din PIB-ul UE. Mentinerea pentru 2020 a obiectivului de
3% ar putea fi realista pentru unele SM, dar pentru Romania va reprezenta o serioasa provocare, chiar presiune, cu
atat mai mult cu cat obiectivele fixate in contextul strategiei Europa 2020 sunt interconectate. In cazul Romaniei, la
constrangerile de natura bugetara si financiara se adauga dificultatile generate de o slaba capacitate de absorbtie a
fondurilor in domeniul cercetarii si dezvoltarii (atat cele de la bugetul de stat, conform Planului national de cercetare
dezvoltare si inovare, cat si din sursele comunitare).
Atingerea obiectivului 20/20/20 (sau 30/20/20, in cazul respectarii anumitor conditii) referitor la schimbarile
climatice si energie. Romania nu intrevede dificultati in atingerea obiectivului de 20% aferent surselor regenerabile de
energie (RES) si considera ca potentialul national, sistemul de promovare al RES si aplicarea prevederilor Directivei
2009/28/CE vor avea contributii importante in acest sens. In ceea ce priveste eficienta energetica, obiectivul de 20%
este indicativ si este importanta analizarea oportunitatii stabilirii de obiective obligatorii. Romania are in vedere
necesitatea mentinerii perspective de crestere a consumului de energie pentru relansarea economica scontata.
Referitor la emisiile de gaze cu efect de sera, Romania considera fundamentala respectarea deciziei Consiliului
European din decembrie 2009 privind efectuarea de catre COM a evaluarii compatibilitatii obiectivelor asumate de
tarile terte, pentru a asigura un level playing field global pentru standardele de mediu. Numai in baza acestei
evaluari poate fi avuta in vedere posibilitatea modificarii angajamentului UE de reducere a emisiilor de gaze cu efect
de sera cu 30 % pana in 2020.
Rata abandonului scolar timpuriu situatia nationala actual nu este de natura sa sustina un obiectiv national
prea ambitios dar, prin intensificarea eforturilor de coordonare a politicilor educationale cu cele sociale, este posibila
scaderea semnificativa a acestui indicator.
Reducerea cu 20 de milioane a cetatenilor europeni amenintati de saracie. Realizarea acestui obiectiv este
dificila chiar la nivelul UE, avand in vedere conditiile economice specific SM.
Asadar, Romania impartaseste abordarea COM cu privire la modul in care se pot asigura perspective mai bune pentru
economia UE si sustine asigurarea convergentei eforturilor comunitare si ale SM in efortul comun de a-si depasi
actual criza si de a define un cadru de consolidare aAIMI
competitivitatii
2014 - 2015 europene pentru urmatorul deceniu.
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Europa 2020 accent pe cunoastere

Cresterea economica bazata pe cunoastere:

noua strategie trebuie sa ofere conditii cadru

adecvate pentru inovare si cercetare, prin oferirea de stimulente si punerea in comun a resurselor
publice si private.
Obiectivele pentru anul 2020 vor putea fi atinse numai intr-un Spatiu European al Cercetarii eficient,
eficace si cu finantare adecvata. Politicile de educatie vor trebui reformate astfel incat randamentul
lor sa creasca si sa conduca la combaterea excluziunii sociale si a saraciei.

Educatia si cercetarea, inovarea si creativitatea sunt principalele prioritati

pentru realizarea societatii europene bazata pe cunoastere. Trebuie intreprinse
masuri pentru crearea unei veritabile piete unice online pentru ca beneficiile economiei digitale sa
fie folosite la potentialul lor maxim.
Dezvoltarea competentelor cetatenilor in cadrul unor societati care favorizeaza incluziunea:
Beneficiile economiei bazate pe cunoastere depind de contributia directa a fortei de munca,
competentele acesteia constituind un element central pentru cresterea economica europeana.
Flexicuritatea va ocupa un loc central in urmatorul deceniu, fiind instrumentul care poate raspunde
adecvat provocarilor impuse de noi locuri de munca care necesita competente noi. Mobilitatea
fortei de munca trebuie sa contribuie la o mai buna corelare a cererii si ofertei pe piata muncii, dar
si la asigurarea necesarului de noi competente.

Intarirea culturii antreprenoriale, cu accent pe o atitudine pozitiva in

asumarea riscurilor si a capacitatii de inovare reprezinta un instrument care
contribuie la asigurarea competitivitatii.
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EU 27
Europe 2020 a strategy for jobs and
smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth, is based on five EU
headline targets which are
currently measured by eight
headline indicators.
Sursa:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/port
al/page/portal/europe_2020_indicato
rs/headline_indicators

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Romania
2014

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Exemplificare: Disparitati regionale baza in anul

2008 (2)
Indici de disparitate PIB/locuitor - calculai conform metodologiei Institutului
Naional de Statistic, prin raportarea nivelului regional la nivelul naional.

Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2016, Comisia Nationala de
Prognoza

Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2017

AIMI 2014 - 2015

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Exemplificare: Disparitati regionale (2)

regiune fa de regiunea Vest (regiunea Bucureti Ilfov nu a fost
luat ca baz - outlier), aflat pe locul doi din punct de vedere al dezvoltrii
economice pe ntreaga perioad.

Decalaje regionale - Fiecare

Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2016, Comisia Nationala de
Prognoza

Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali

n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2017, Comisia Nationala
de Prognoza

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EUROSTAT - Regional gross domestic product (PPS per

inhabitant), by NUTS 2 regions ROMANIA
GDP (gross domestic product) is an indicator of the output of a country or a region. It reflects the total value of all goods and services produced less the value of
goods and services used for intermediate consumption in their production. Expressing GDP in PPS (purchasing power standards) eliminates differences in price
levels between countries. Calculations on a per inhabitant basis allow for the comparison of economies and regions significantly different in absolute size. GDP per
inhabitant in PPS is the key variable for determining the eligibility of NUTS 2 regions in the framework of the European Union's structural policy. Every
region in the EU is covered by cohesion policy: however, most structural funds are directed to NUTS level 2 regions whose GDP per inhabitant is less than 75 % of
the EU27 average (on the basis of a three-year average). Source: Eurostat (tgs00006)
120

117

100

111

111

92
84
77

80

68
63
60

56

57

59
53

40

20

18

20

21

22

24

23

25

26

29

30

2008

2009

29

0
2000

2001
Nord-Vest

2002
Centru

2003
Nord-Est

2004
Sud-Est

2005
Sud-Muntenia

2006

2007
Bucuresti-Ilfov

Sud-VestOltenia

2010
Vest

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii

Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015. Modele teoretice preluate in
metodologiile de evaluare Diamantul Porter, Global
Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM)
IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook. The 2013-2050 Roadmap

Rapoartele de competitivitate
Evaluarea economiei bazate pe cunoastere in viziunea Bancii Mondiale Knowledge Assessment methodology - KAM:
www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopment
www.worldbank.org/kam
The Knowledge Economy, the KAM Methodology and World Bank Operations,
Derek H. C. Chen, Carl J. Dahlman, The World Bank, Washington DC 20433, October
19, 2005
Source: Measuring knowledge in the worlds economies, Knowledge Assessment
Methodology and Knowledge Economy Index

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Raportul asupra competitivitatii in lume in viziunea Forumului

Economic Mondial (WEF - World Economic Forum) WEF

Global Competitiveness Report editia 2014-2015

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii Forumul Economic

Mondial (WEF)
Sursa: The Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015, World Economic Forum; autori: Michael E. Porter,
Harvard University; Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum

Competitiveness is defined as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level
of productivity of a country;
Productivity of an economy - is measured by the value of goods and services produced per unit of
the nations human, capital, and natural resources. Productivity depends both on the value of a
nations products and services, measured by the prices they can command in open markets, and
the efficiency with which they can be produced.
The level of productivity
- sets the sustainable level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy; more competitive
economies tend to be able to produce higher levels of income for their citizens.
- determines the rates of return obtained by investments in an economy.
Wealth is actually created by the productivity with which a nation can utilize its human, capital,
and natural resources to produce goods and services. Productivity ultimately depends on the
microeconomic capability of the economy, rooted in the sophistication of companies (both local
and subsidiaries of multinationals), the quality of the national business environment, and the
externalities arising from the presence of clusters of related and supporting industries.
Unless microeconomic capabilities improve, sustainable improvements in prosperity will not occur.
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Definitie - concepte
Competitivitatea
-

se definete ca acel set de instituii, politici i factori care determin nivelul prezent de
productivitate al unei tri.
- Este capacitatea unei firme, companii regiuni sau economii nationale de a isi pastra sau
ameliora pozitia in raport cu concurenta altor entitati comparabile; este cel mai des vazuta
din perspectiva unei natiuni si este asociata concurentei internationale => capacitatea unei
natiuni de a produce bunuri si servicii care fac fata testului concurentei pe pietele
internationale si de a spori simultan si in mod durabil nivelul de trai al populatiei
- determin att nivelul de bunstare al unei economii la un moment dat, ct i potenialul de
cretere a acesteia in viitor.
Literatura i practica economic au evideniat faptul c dezvoltarea unei economii bazate pe
cunoatere reprezint unul dintre factorii cheie ai creterii competitivitii unei economii.

In timp, dezvoltarea conceptului

Economitii clasici au identificat patru factori de producie: pmntul, capitalul, resursele naturale i fora
de munc (Adam Smith, 1776 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of Wealth of Nations);
D. Ricardo (1817) - cu formularea legii avantajului comparativ Principles of Political Economy and Taxation
Economitii marxiti au subliniat impactul mediului sociopolitic asupra dezvoltrii economice (K. Marx
1867 Capital: a Critique of Political Economy)
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In timp abordarea conceptului (cont.)

Weber, M., - a subliniat relaia ntre valori, credine religioase i performana economic a
naiunilor (Ethic of Protestanism and the Spirit of Capitalism,1905)
Schumpeter, J., - a relevat rolul ntreprinztorului n asigurarea competitivitii (Capitalism,
Socialism and Democracy, 1942)
Sloan, A., i Drucker, P. au elaborat pe tema recunoaterii managementului ca factor cheie de
determinare a competitivitii (Sloan, S. My Years at General Motors 1963; Drucker, P., The
Age of Discontinuity 1969);
R. Solow (laureat Nobel ptr. Economie, 1987) a subliniat importana educaiei, a inovrii
tehnologice i a elementelor de know-how studiind economia american pe deceniile urmtoare
celui de al doilea rzboi mondial (Solow, R., Technical Change and the Aggregate Production
Function, 1957);
Romer, P., Negroponte, N., - pentru definirea cunotinelor ca factor de competitivitate
(Negroponte, N.,Being Digital - 1995)
Porter, M., - a integrat aceste idei ntr-o manier sistematic - construind Diamantul de
competitivitate (Porter, M., The Competitive Advantage of Nations 1990)
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Evaluari ale competitivitatii The microeconomic business

environment - the mechanisms of influence (Porters Model)

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii WEF The major determinants for

competitiveness
(12
dimensions)
The concept of competitiveness
involves
static
and
dynamic
components.
Although the productivity of a country
determines its ability to sustain a high
level of income, it is also one of the
central determinants of its returns on
investment, which is one of the key
factors explaining an economys
growth potential.

Subindex weights and income thresholds for stages of development

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Evaluari ale competitivitatii WEF The major determinants for

competitiveness
(12
dimensions)
The concept of competitiveness
involves
static
and
dynamic
components.
Although the productivity of a country
determines its ability to sustain a high
level of income, it is also one of the
central determinants of its returns on
investment, which is one of the key
factors explaining an economys
growth potential.

Subindex weights and income thresholds for stages of development

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Romania

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Romania - The most problematic factors for doing business

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 IMD WORLD COMPETITIVENESS YEARBOOK Anuarul competitivitatii globale 2014

http://www.imd.org/

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The World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2014

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The fundamentals on IMDs competitiveness

Competitiveness analyzes how nations and enterprises
manage the totality of their competencies to achieve
prosperity or profit.
Competitiveness of Nations is a field of Economic theory,
which analyses the facts and policies that shape the
ability of a nation to create and maintain an
environment that sustains more value creation for
its enterprises and more prosperity for its people.
Is one of the most powerful concepts in modern economic
thinking. One of its key contributions to classical
economic theories is that competitiveness encompasses
the economic consequences of non-economic issues,
such as education, sciences, political stability or value
systems. It is precisely because it is a multifaceted
concept that it has lead to a proliferation of definitions.
The World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY) looks at the
relationship between a countrys national environment
(where the State plays a key role) and the wealth creation
process (assumed by enterprises and individuals). The
WCY focuses on the outcome of the interaction of four
competitiveness factors, which generally define a
countrys national environment: Economic Performance,
Government Efficiency, Business Efficiency and
Infrastructure.

4 dimensions shape the countrys competitiveness

environment. They are the result of tradition, history
or value systems and are so deeply rooted in the
modus operandi of a country that, in most cases, they
are not clearly stated or defined. Countries manage
their environment according to 4 fundamental forces:
Attractiveness vs. Aggressiveness
Proximity vs. Globality
Assets vs. Processes
Individual Risk Taking vs. Social Cohesiveness.
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The concept of competitiveness - four levels: Efficiency,

Choice, Resources and Objectives
is primarily understood as being better than others. Productivity is thus a key determinant to such efficiency; also
implies a strategic choice in identifying those domains where an activity represents a unique added value. The
theory of comparative advantage (David Ricardo, 1819) analyses such dilemmas. Competitiveness means making
choices about where the potential added value in international markets is bigger than that of competitors.
entails the mobilization of a variety of resources to implement such choices. These resources are drawn from
government, infrastructure, technology,
finance, education, etc. Countries compete internationally to have access to and to manage these resources.

The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook can be described as a mapping process that helps countries
benchmark their competitiveness by mobilizing such resources.
a) Companies focus on sustained profitability, which is the ability to generate an appropriate return on capital over a
long period of time. This concept is well-covered by economic analysis and is explained by the field of
competitive strategy.
b) Nations thrive on prosperity, a concept that we define as economic growth plus something else that is less
economic and measurable. The latter goal evolves with the economic and social development of a country: a
poorer nation may emphasize access to food and shelter for its population, a more advanced economy may
give priority to environmental protection or education. In both cases however, economic growth remains a
prerequisite, a condition that is necessary but not sufficient.
c) Individuals are motivated by increases in their standard of living and probably by something more ideological such
as the pursuit of happiness as described in the US Declaration of Independence (1776). Several models
attempt to include such concepts in economic analysis (for example, the Commission on the Measurement of
Economic Performance and Social Progress sponsored by the French state and which includes Nobel laureates
Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen.)

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World Competitiveness Yearbook - methodology

The World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY) ranks and analyzes the ability of nations to create and maintain an environment in which
enterprises can compete. It means that we assume that wealth creation takes place primarily at enterprise level (whether private or
state owned) - this field of research is called: "competitiveness of enterprises. However, enterprises operate in a national
environment which enhances or hinders their ability to compete domestically or internationally - this field of research is called:
"competitiveness of nations" and is covered by the WCY.
Based on analysis made by leading scholars and by our own research and experience, the methodology of the WCY thus divides the
national environment into four main factors: Economic Performance, Government Efficiency, Business Efficiency and Infrastructure.
In turn, each of these factors is divided into 5 sub-factors which highlight every facet of the areas analyzed.
Altogether, the WCY features 20 such sub-factors. These 20 sub-factors comprise more than 300 criteria, although each sub-factor does
not necessarily have the same number of criteria (for example, it takes more criteria to assess Education than to evaluate Prices).
Each sub-factor, independently of the number of criteria it contains, has the same weight in the overall consolidation of results,
which is 5% (20x5 =100).
Criteria can be hard data, which analyzes competitiveness as it can be measured (e.g. GDP) or soft data, which analyzes
competitiveness as it can be perceived (e.g. Availability of competent managers). Hard criteria represent a weight of 2/3 in the
overall ranking, whereas the survey data represent a weight of 1/3. In addition, some criteria are for background information only,
which means that they are not used in calculating the overall competitiveness ranking (e.g. Population under 15).
Finally, aggregating the results of the 20 sub-factors makes the total consolidation, which leads to the overall ranking of the WCY.

32

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35

36

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Competitiveness Perspective 1997-2013

The vertical axis on the left indicates the 2013 ranking and the name of the country. The blue 2013 diagonal line from top to bottom
indicates the same ranking, which also intersects with the axis below. In addition, the horizontal axis allows to read the best and worst
rankings over time.
Each countrys bar highlights on the left the worst competitiveness ranking and its date and on the right the best ranking and its date.
The length of the bar indicates the spread between the two; a long bar can mean dynamism and/or volatility a shorter bar meaning
stability/and or inertia.

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Tema de discutie:

IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013, 2014 2050

The Competitiveness Roadmap is an attempt to describe and assess the main issues that will affect the world
competitiveness landscape over the next four decades. Issues are shown along two axes - degree of impact and
timescale - to provide a clear mental map of the environment in which nations and companies will operate.
Exemple:
1. Budget deficits remain high Despite austerity plans, budget deficits remain high: Country estimates for 2013
range from -9% of the GDP in Japan, to -5.4% in the US and -2.8% in the Euro area. Unpopular spending cuts
will prevail and not only in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy slowing down economic recovery everywhere.
2. The economy is desynchronized Globalization is still there but the world economy is increasingly fragmented:
some nations continue to struggle with recession e.g. Greece, Portugal others confront robust growth such
as China. Some countries suffer deflation Japan and Switzerland others are threatened by inflation, such as
India, Russia and Turkey.
3. Unemployment becomes massive 25 million people lose their jobs in the OECD region and the average jobless
rate hits 7.7% in the US and 11.9% in Europe. Youth unemployment reaches record highs, above 23% in Europe
and a staggering 52% in Spain.
4. Interest rates remain low Central Banks continue to flood the market with cheap money. Some institutions,
such as the U.S. Fed, include employment levels as a target. Stock exchanges become more attractive for
higher returns.
5. Inflation is back but not everywhere The economic recovery is expected to trigger a rise in commodity prices
and demand. Excess liquidities inherited from the recession could flood the markets. Some governments even
welcome a bit of inflation to boost private consumption and reduce the nominal value of the debt.
6. High volatility of currencies The dollar remains weak and is continually tested by financial markets. The Euro
stabilizes around 1.35 to the dollar as emerging markets cautiously buy Euro bonds to diversify their holdings.
The Chinese Yuan appreciates gradually as the government wants to develop domestic demand.
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IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013 2050 Exemple (2)

7. Global debt explodes The average G20 government debt increases from 78% of GDP to 100% and above. The US national
debt now surpasses $21 trillion. Sub-sovereign debt at regional and city level becomes critical in the US but also in
Spain, and even Germany.
8. Economic nationalism on the rise Trade protectionism increases as it is linked to national stimulus plans (e.g. buy
national clauses). New protectionist measures appear that are linked to financial regulations, environmental standards,
corporate governance, etc.
15. Consumers react differently Industrialized nations are characterized by a replacement economy where purchases
replace existing products while emerging nations are in a first-buy economy stage where purchases introduce new
products into households. In other words, an industrialized economy is defined by I want it versus one defined by I
need it. Slower growth can be expected as saturation threatens replacement economies.
16. Food commodities prices higher Food commodities have seen their prices increase by over 40% since the end of the
recession. Despite a temporary slowdown due to a weaker than expected recovery, prices will remain high. An emerging
middle class is changing its eating habits and greater demand will push prices up again. For example, China is moving
away from a rice-only diet. In a decade it has increased its milk consumption seven-fold, poultry by 60%, beef by 30%
and wheat by 25%.
17. State capitalism is fashionable Governments are moving from being stakeholders to being shareholders of their
economies. State interventions increase and national leaders consider it a priority to defend and develop national
champions. As a consequence, government spending now represents on average 50% of the GDP in advanced
economies. 80% of the stock market capitalization in Shanghai is done by state-backed companies.
24. More managers needed everywhere - More managers are required in emerging powers. India, China, Russia, Brazil and
the Gulf region increasingly focus on management and the creation of business schools, beyond science and engineering
education. Strategy, finance and marketing skills are now priorities for ensuring the continuous expansion of local
enterprises in a global environment.
25. A new environmental strategy for companies Climate change and energy security is clearly a priority for public opinion.
Governments and companies enhance their visibility on environmental issues and integrate an environmental dimension
into their strategy. Companies that fail to do so will not attract the best talents in the younger generation, who are very
sensitive to this issue.
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IMD The Competitiveness Roadmap: 2013 2050 Exemple (3)

26. Life sciences and environment attract massive investments - Life sciences, as the population becomes older
(40,000 centenarians in Britain in 2030), and environmental technology, as the world becomes hotter (+ 0.6C
in 20 years), will attract massive investments. Innovation proliferates in these two areas of knowledge.
Wellness, in addition to curing existing diseases, becomes a priority for ageing populations.
27. Intellectual property vs. open systems - The intellectual property debate encapsulates two conceptions of world
business: On the one hand the respect for innovation and invention and on the other hand the thrust for a
more open and collaborative society where information is widely shared. Social network systems flourish and
challenge government-controlled information in some parts of the world.
28. From Service to Re-industrialization Service competitiveness and the ability to integrate and manage a global
business model were at the core of the competitiveness of Europe and the US. However both regions have lost
20% of their industry in 20 years, thus creating a higher level of permanent unemployment. Companies
reassess extreme outsourcing and delocalization. Re-shoring and re-industrialization become an economic
and political priority. There is no competitiveness without a sound manufacturing base.
29. Labor cost differences shrink - The difference in labor costs around the world is drastically reduced as nations
develop. A range from 1 to 20 today is reduced to 1 to 5 as purchasing power around the world converges.
30. Productivity is harmonized worldwide - Productivity is harmonized around world operations as companies
become truly global and widely diffuse the same technology and processes. The value chain is managed at the
global level. The nationality of companies matters less and less. The product made in the world is born!
32. From cheap manpower to cheap brainpower -The world moves from a competitiveness model based on cheap
manpower to one based on cheap brainpower. In total, India, China and Russia have 14 million university
students, as many as the US. These students quickly become young professionals eager for success, who are
relatively affordable and highly motivated. Through technology, these brains can be accessed from all over the
world.
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IMD - The Competitiveness Roadmap 20132050 Exemple (4)

33. Urbanization means congestion - The urbanization of the world economy increases pressure on economic and social
infrastructure (roads, water, hospitals, etc.), the environment and also increases social problems (rural migration to cities).
In 2030, 60% of the world population lives in cities. 40 mega regions account for two third of the worlds GDP and 85% of
the technology. As a drawback, congestion becomes a major issue everywhere.
35. From collective to individual value systems - The value system of societies in Asia gradually evolves from one based on
collective values (such as hard work and national pride) to one based on individual values (such as work-life balance),
much closer to the US and European value systems.
36. A new business model for the poor - A new business model emerges for the worlds poorest (such as in Africa or the
Indian subcontinent). Products are manufactured and sold at a fraction of the price charged elsewhere, and with minimal
functionalities. Examples: the $10 phone, $100 PC or $2,500 motor vehicle and services such as micro-finance and mobile
phone financial transactions.
37. China, India, Brazil and Russia as technological powers - China, India and Russia regain their age-old status as
technological powers. Foreign companies no longer hesitate to transfer research centers to these countries that have a
long tradition of excellence in science and innovation.
38. Retirement age increases - The pension systems in Europe and Japan are increasingly at risk. One-third of the
population is now over 60 years old; 10% is older than 80! Retirement gets closer to 70 and fluctuates depending on
the industry sector and the hardship of work. Some white-collar pension systems now have to deal with an increasing
number of centenarians. The financial crisis has reduced accumulated wealth and employees are forced to retire later.
39. Society capitalism After a period of enterprise capitalism aimed at shareholder value, and one of state capitalism
based on local value, a period emerges focusing on society capitalism which redefines the role of enterprises as
actors to solve wider societal issues such as the environment, sustainable development, poverty, etc.
42. Remoteness becomes irrelevant - The disappearance of most trade and investment barriers, the efficiency of the
international logistics system (roads, shipping, trains and air freight) and the pervasiveness of communications technology
give every single nation and enterprise instant access to world markets and unlimited opportunities.
43. The technological divide disappears - The technological divide disappears because of the development of a worldwide
communications infrastructure and the proliferation of cheap technological products for the poor.

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Tema de discutie
KAM Banca Mondiala

The Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM)

The KAM consists of 148 structural and qualitative variables for 146
countries to measure their performance on the 4 Knowledge Economy
(KE) pillars: Economic Incentive and Institutional Regime, Education,
Innovation, and Information and Communications Technologies.
Variables are normalized on a scale of 0 to 10 relative to other countries in
the comparison group. The KAM also derives a countrys overall
Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) and Knowledge Index (KI).
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Economia cunoasterii si performanta economica

Corelatia dintre acumularea de cunoastere (masurata de KEI) si nivelul de dezvoltare economica
(PIB/capita) este estimat prin coeficientul de determinare de 87%.

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Evaluarea KAM ptr. Romania (basic scoreboard)

Valori reale 2012

Valori normalizateValori reale 1995

2012

Valori normalizate
1995

Bariere tarifare si netarifare, 2011

87.6

9.3

79

9.38

Calitatea reglementarii, 2009

0.62

6.92

-0.23

2.94

Legislatie, 2009

0.1

5.96

0.01

5.56

Plati si taxe de redevente (US$/pop.) 2009

24.76

6.4

0.48

3.56

Nr. de articole in reviste de Stiinta si Inginerie / Mil. Pers, 2007

58.12

6.41

29.89

Brevete recunoscute de USPTO / Mil. Pers, medie 2005-2009

0.45

5.62

0.1

5.1

Numar mediu de ani de scolarizare, 2010

10.37

7.72

9.61

8.35

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in invatamantul mediu, 2009

93.5

6.55

77.9

6.25

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in invatamantul superior, 2009

67.07

8.37

18.29

5.31

1,430,00

6.62

130

5.72

Numar computere la 1000 pers, 2008

190

6.1

10

5.32

Numar de utilizatori Internet la 1000 pers, 2009

360

5.86

7.45

Numar linii telefonice la 1000 pers, 2009

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Evaluarea Bancii Mondiale

KAM Romania in 2012 si in 1995

Bariere tarifare 9.3

si netarifare, 2011
10
Numar de utilizatori Internet la 1000
Calitatea reglementarii, 2009
9
pers, 2009
8
5.86

Numar computere la 1000 pers, 2008

6.1

Numar linii telefonice la 1000 pers,

2009

6.62

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

6.92

Legislatie, 2009
5.96

6.4

6.41

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in

8.37
invatamantul superior, 2009

Plati si taxe de redevente (US$/pop.)

2009

Nr de articole in reviste de Stiinta si

Inginerie / Mil. Pers, 2007

5.62
6.55

Rata bruta de inmatriculare in

Brevete recunoscute de USPTO / Mil.
invatamantul mediu, 2009
Pers, medie 2005-2009
7.72
Numar mediu de ani de scolarizare,
2010

2012
1995
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2014 - 2015

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KEI in dinamica 1995-2012

most recent

1995

Albania

4.53

4.33

Uzbekistan

3.14

4.78

Australia

8.88

9.27

Barbados

7.18

6.87

Benin

1.88

2.83

Bulgaria

6.8

6.81

China

4.37

3.99

El Salvador

4.17

4.26

Estonia

8.4

7.94

France

8.21

8.67

Kuwait

5.33

5.71

Lesotho

1.95

3.11

United States

8.77

9.53

Mongolia

4.42

4.08

Myanmar

0.96

2.23

Romania

6.82

5.91

Russian Federation

5.78

5.67

Slovak Republic

7.64

7.22

Sweden

9.43

9.45

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KEI in dinamica
KEI 2012

10

Estonia
7,94; 8,4

9
8

RO 5,91; 6,82

y = 1.0781x - 0.6923
R 2 = 0.9438

7
6
5
4

Uzbekistan
4,78; 3,14

3
2
1
0
0

KEI 1995

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Cadrul economic 2012 Romania

Gr. Capital Formation as % of GDP, 2005-2009
Press Freedom (1-100), 2010
Control of Corruption, 2009

Political Stability, 2009

5.34
6.37

Voice and Accountability, 2009

6.3

10
97.68
8
7
5.76
6
4.68
5
4
3
2
1
0

Trade as % of GDP, 2009

Tariff & Nontariff Barriers, 2011

9.3

Soundness of Banks (1-7), 2010

3.28

Exports of Goods and Services as % of GDP, 2009

4.51

4.86

7.29 Interest Rate Spread, 2009

Government Effectiveness, 2009

4.35
5.96
5.15

4.04

Rule of Law, 2009

6.92
Regulatory Quality, 2009

Intensity of Local Competition (1-7), 2010

5.39
7.52

Cost to Enforce a Contract (% of Debt), 2011

Domestic Credit to Private Sector as % of GDP, 2009

Cost to Register a Business as % of GNI Per Capita, 2011

Days to Start a Business, 2011

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Tema de discutie - Banca Mondial a pus punctul pe 3

I": INOVARE, INCLUZIUNE I INTEGRARE - Afacerile de
tranziie din Romnia, caracterizate prin "nvare i experimentare"
In perioada de tranziie, mediul de afaceri din Romnia a fost orientat ctre experimentare i nvare,
iar elementele ce au impulsionat competitivitatea au fost reprezentate de intrrile i ieirile de
firme de pe pia, potrivit unui studiu eliberat de Banca Mondial (BM).
Oficialii BM au publicat un studiul "Inovare, incluziune i integrare: De la tranziie la convergen
n Europa Rsritean i fosta Uniune Sovietic", ce include concluziile Bncii Mondiale
referitoare la perioada de tranziie a rilor din Europa de Est i fostul bloc sovietic, precum i
sugestii legate de msurile ce vor trebui s fie luate de aceste state odat cu finalizarea procesului
de tranziie (iunie 2008).
Printre concluziile la care au ajuns analitii BM se numr creterea productivitii, considerat ca
fiind singura cale viabil ctre o prosperitate de durat, existena "n aspecte fundamentale
ale mediului de afaceri precum concurena i finanarea, care determin comportamentul
firmelor" a unui proces de maturizare i convergen n direcia celor existente n economiile
de pia dezvoltate din Europa Occidental, precum i creterea slab a
ocuprii pretutindeni, reflectnd interaciunea dintre creterea numrului de locuri de
munc n noile firme private care au putut ocupa nie de pia inexistente n economia
centralizat planificat, i reducerea acestuia n ntreprinderile de stat i privatizate.
Banca Mondial susine faptul c "rile din Europa Rsritean i fosta Uniune Sovietic se
confrunt acum cu o a treia tranziie - mbtrnirea populaiei lor, care va ncetini ritmul
creterii economice dac numrul participanilor la fora de munc nu se va mri, dac
resursele nu vor fi mai eficient utilizate i dac sistemele de pensii i sntate nu vor fi
reformate pentru a nu deveni surse de acute presiuni fiscale".
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Banca Mondial a pus punctul pe 3 I": INOVARE,

INCLUZIUNE I INTEGRARE - Afacerile de tranziie din Romnia,
caracterizate prin "nvare i experimentare (cont.)
Revenind la situaia romnilor n acest context, analitii Bncii Mondiale au sesizat "productivitatea sczut a
firmelor nou intrate pe pia n Ungaria i Romnia, comparativ cu cele deja existente". Mai mult dect
att, aceasta este urmat de "o inversare a situaiei n circa doi ani de la nceperea activitii", fapt ce "poate
semnala un mediu de afaceri orientat ctre nvare i experimentare.
Totodat, n cazul Romniei, datele incluse n raportul BM arat c n primul an de la nceperea activitii
firmele aveau o pierdere de productivitate de peste 30%, pentru ca n doi ani de la intrarea pe pia s
obin un ctig de circa 20%. Conform statisticilor, profitul se meninea relativ constant nc doi ani,
pentru ca ulterior, la apte ani de la intrarea pe pia, companiile s aib un ctig de productivitate
cu puin peste 10%. Rata de supravieuire a noilor afaceri depea 80% pentru primii doi ani, pentru
a ajunge la circa 70% n primii patru ani de la intrarea pe piaa din Romnia a unei firme. Acelai
raport arat c firmele cu "via" de 7 ani aveau cota de supravieuire de doar aproximativ 60%
(raportul "Inovaie, incluziune i inovare" vizeaz perioada 1993-2005).
Firmele au fost forate s gseasc metode de supravieuire. n sprijinul ideilor menionate anterior, studiul
subliniaz faptul c "n Romnia i Ucraina, ratele de supravieuire pentru primii patru ani erau relativ
asemntoare, de circa 70%. Nou intrai erau cu aproximativ 30% mai puin productivi n Romnia,
comparativ cu firmele existente, n timp ce n Ucraina erau cu 30% mai productivi".
Raportul BM arat c n timpul procesului de tranziie de la o economie centralizat la una de pia, companiile au fost forate s
gseasc diverse metode noi de a rezista pe pia. n cazul celor ce nu au reuit s se adapteze n perioada menionat au ieit
de pe pia, pe cnd firmele care au continuat activitatea au identificat noi metode de supravieuire, un exemplu elocvent fiind
realocarea resurselor. Astfel, ideea c intrrile i ieirile de pe pia au contribuit, n statele din regiune, la creterea
competitivitii mediului de afaceri devine perfect valabil.
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