Convergena real i convergena nominal.

Aderarea la zona
euro
Aderarea la Uniunea Economic i Monetar (Zona euro) este condiionat de
ndeplinirea a 5 criterii de convergen nominal.
Totui, aceste criterii tehnice nu garanteaz i succesul unei economii care decide
s adopte moneda unic.
Fr progrese sustenabile n privina convergenei reale (anterioare acestei
decizii), economia Romniei ar fi o ar periferic a zonei euro, iar beneficiile vor
fi mai mici dect costurile adoptrii monedei unice.
Existena unei monede unice va amplifica procesul de integrare economic dintre
economiile zonei euro i va avantaja economiile cele mai competitive ale uniunii
monetare (Germania vs. PIGS).
Romnia a amnat recent inta de aderare la zona euro n 2015.
A. Convergena economic (real)
- fundamentele teoretice cursurile 6-7
Criterii de analiz ale convergenei economice/factori de influen
1. PIB pe locuitor (PPC)

Sursa datelor : Eurostat (2011)

Evoluia procesului de convergen a Romniei relativ la zona euro

Sursa datelor : Eurostat (2011)

Convergena veniturilor n rile ECE relativ la zona euro

Sursa datelor : Eurostat (2011), calcule personale

Ipoteza de convergen beta n cazul rilor ECE (1995-2010)

2. Productivitatea muncii
Productivitatea muncii (euro/lucrtor)
Bulgaria
Romania
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Estonia
Slovakia
Hungary
Czech
Republic
Portugal
Slovenia

2004
3.9
4.4
5.5
7.5
8.2
8.7
10.1
10.2
11.1
15.4
17

2005
4
4.6
5.9
7.7
8.4
9.2
10.4
10.7

2006
4.1
4.9
6.3
8.2
8.6
9.7
11
11.1

2007
4.3
5.2
6.7
8.7
8.8
10.3
11.8
11.1

2008
4.4
5.6
6.7
8.8
8.9
10
12.1
11.3

2009
4.3
5.3
6.6
8.3
9.1
10.3
11.8
11

2010
4.5
5.3
6.9
8.7
9.5
10.9
12.3
11.1

2011
4.8
:
7.8
9.2
9.8
10.8
12.6
11.2

11.7
15.6
18.2

12.4
15.8
19.3

13
16.1
20.1

13
16.1
20.1

12.8
16.1
18.9

13
16.4
19.5

13.1
16.5
20.2

Greece
Spain
Germany
Ireland

20.1
27.7
39.4
43.9

19.8
27.9
39.9
44.1

20.8
28.1
41.3
44.7

21.5
28.5
42
45.8

22.2
28.7
42
45.8

21.1
29.4
40.9
48.1

20.4
30
41.7
49.9

19.9
30.4
42.3
51.8

3. Decalajele structurale
Indicele convergenei structurale, propus de Krugman, evideniaz distana
structural dintre strucuturile sectoriale ale Romniei i zonei euro.
n

Indicele disimilaritii structurale RO/EA= abs ( s k , RO sk , EA )

k 1

unde, sk reprezint ponderea sectorului k n valoarea adugat a Romniei

i zonei euro. Indicele ia valoarea 0 (similaritate perfect) i 1 (divergen
maxim).
Indicele divergenei, propus de ctre Stattev i Raleva (2005)
n

( s k , RO s k , EA ) 2

k 1

s k , EA

Divergence index=

Dac acest indice este zero, atunci exist aceeai structur a

economiei, relativ la economia de referin.
Indicatorul asimetriei structurale, determinat ca deviaie standard a
strucurii economice comparativ cu media zonei euro.
Structural Asymmetry Indicator =

(s
k 1

k , RO

sk , EA ) 2

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)

Divergena sectorial dintre Romnia i zona euro (NACE 6)

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)

Divergena sectorial dintre Romnia i zona euro (NACE 31)

Comparnd structurile sectoriale ale Romniei i zonei euro folosind clasificrile

NACE 6 i NACE 31, rezult c ocurile care vor influena cele dou economii
vor deveni mai degrab asimetrice, ceea ce va mri costurile renunrii la moneda
naional.
4. Gradul de integrare comercial cu zona euro

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)

Integrarea comercial dintre Romnia i UE-27

Cei mai importani parteneri comerciali ai Romniei din zona euro

(n primele zece economii partenere comercial)

2004

2007

2010

Pondere n total
Pondere n
exporturi
total importuri
Italia
Italia
21.2%
17.2%
Germania
Germania
15%
14.9%
Frana
Frana
8.5%
7.1%
Olanda
Austria
3.2%
3.5%
Austria
3.1%
Total
51%
42.7%

Pondere n
Pondere n
total exporturi total importuri
Italia
Germania
17.1%
17.2%
Germania
Italia
16.9%
12,7%
Frana
Frana
7.7%
6.3%
Austria
Austria
2.6%
4,8%
Spania
Olanda
2.3%
3,6%
Total
46.6%
44.6%

Pondere n
Pondere n
total exporturi total importuri
Germania
Germania
18,3%
16,8%
Italia
Italia
13,9%
11,6%
Frana
Frana
8,4%
6%
Spania
Austria
3,1%
4,1%
Olanda
Olanda
2,8%
3,5%
Total
46.5%
42%

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)

Ponderea exporturilor rilor ECE ctre zona euro

5. Divergenele dintre structurile comerciale

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)

Divergena structurii comerului dintre Romnia i zona euro

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)

Coninutul tehnologic al exporturilor Romniei ctre UE-27

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)

Ponderea exporturilor mediu/high-tech n exporturile totale ctre UE-27

Sursa datelor: Eurostat (2011)

Coninutul tehnologic al importurilor Romniei din UE-27

6. Investiiile strine directe

Proporia rilor din nucleul zonei euro n stocul de capital al economiilor ECE (2009)
German
Netherlan Austr Luxembu
Belgium
y
France
Italy
ds
ia
rg
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia

1%
4%
3%
3%
2%
3%
3%

6%
14%
22%
16%
13%
5%
13%

2%
7%
5%
11%
9%
7%
4%

1%
1%
-7%
4%
5%
6%
5%

18%
30%
18%
18%
22%
5%
27%

18%
13%
13%
4%
18%
49%
16%

4%
7%
7%
9%
1%
2%
4%

B. Convergena nominal
Tratatul de la Maastricht - cinci criterii pe care statele membre trebuie s le
respecte pentru a se putea altura UEM i a adopta moneda euro.
1. Rata medie a inflaiei - maxim +1,5 pp peste media celor mai
performani 3 membri ai UE
2. Rata dobnzii nominale pe termen lung - maxim +2 pp peste media
celor mai performani 3 membri ai UE din perspectiva stabilitii preurilor
3. Deficitul bugetar - maxim 3% din PIB;
4. Ponderea datoriei publice n PIB - maxim 60%;
5. Marjele de fluctuaie ale cursului de schimb - +/-15% n ERM II, (cel
puin 2 ani), fa de o rat de paritate central.
CUM S-AU CALCULAT
NOMINAL? (studiu de caz)

CRITERIILE

DE

CONVERGEN

1. Criteriul ratei inflaiei

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

European Union

2001
2.2

2002
2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

3.7

2.1

3.1

Belgium

2.4

1.6

1.5

1.9

2.5

2.3

1.8

4.5

2.3

3.5

Bulgaria

7.4

5.8

2.3

6.1

7.4

7.6

12

2.5

3.4

Czech Republic

4.5

1.4

-0.1

2.6

1.6

2.1

6.3

0.6

1.2

2.1

Denmark

2.3

2.4

0.9

1.7

1.9

1.7

3.6

1.1

2.2

2.7

Germany

1.9

1.4

1.8

1.9

1.8

2.3

2.8

0.2

1.2

2.5

Estonia

5.6

3.6

1.4

4.1

4.4

6.7

10.6

0.2

2.7

5.1

Ireland

4.7

2.3

2.2

2.7

2.9

3.1

-1.7

-1.6

1.2

Greece

3.7

3.9

3.4

3.5

3.3

4.2

1.3

4.7

3.1

Spain

2.8

3.6

3.1

3.1

3.4

3.6

2.8

4.1

-0.2

3.1

France
Italy

1.8
2.3

1.9
2.6

2.2
2.8

2.3
2.3

1.9
2.2

1.9
2.2

1.6
2

3.2
3.5

0.1
0.8

1.7
1.6

2.3
2.9

Cyprus

2.8

1.9

2.2

2.2

4.4

0.2

2.6

3.5

Latvia

2.5

2.9

6.2

6.9

6.6

10.1

15.3

3.3

-1.2

4.2

Lithuania

1.6

0.3

-1.1

1.2

2.7

3.8

5.8

11.1

4.2

1.2

4.1

Luxembourg

2.4

2.1

2.5

3.2

3.8

2.7

4.1

2.8

3.7

Hungary

9.1

5.2

4.7

6.8

3.5

7.9

4.7

3.9

Malta

2.5

2.6

1.9

2.7

2.5

2.6

0.7

4.7

1.8

2.5

Netherlands

5.1

3.9

2.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.6

2.2

0.9

2.5

Austria

2.3

1.7

1.3

2.1

1.7

2.2

3.2

0.4

1.7

3.6

Poland

5.3

1.9

0.7

3.6

2.2

1.3

2.6

4.2

2.7

3.9

Portugal

4.4

3.7

3.3

2.5

2.1

2.4

2.7

-0.9

1.4

3.6

Romania

34.5

22.5

15.3

11.9

9.1

6.6

4.9

7.9

5.6

6.1

5.8

Slovenia

8.6

7.5

5.7

3.7

2.5

2.5

3.8

5.5

0.9

2.1

2.1

Slovakia

7.2

3.5

8.4

7.5

2.8

4.3

1.9

3.9

0.9

0.7

4.1

Finland

2.7

1.3

0.1

0.8

1.3

1.6

3.9

1.6

1.7

3.3

Sweden

2.7

1.9

2.3

0.8

1.5

1.7

3.3

1.9

1.9

1.4

United Kingdom

1.2

1.3

Rata anual a inflaiei inta de inflaie

1.4

1.3

2.1

2.3

2.3

3.6

2.2

3.3

4.5

Rata dobnzii
EU (27 countries)
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

:
5.59
:
:
5.64
5.26
5.51
6.1
5.53
5.39
5.58
:
:
:
5.52
:
:
5.4
5.56
:
5.59
:
:
:
5.48

5
5.13
:
6.31
5.08
4.8
5.01
5.3
5.12
4.94
5.19
7.62
7.57
8.15
4.86
7.95
6.19
4.96
5.08
10.7
5.16
:
:
8.04
5.04

4.92
4.99
:
4.88
5.06
4.78
5.01
5.12
4.96
4.86
5.03
5.7
5.41
6.06
4.7
7.09
5.82
4.89
4.96
7.36
5.01
:
8.72
6.94
4.98

4.23
4.18
6.45
4.12
4.31
4.07
4.13
4.27
4.12
4.13
4.25
4.74
4.9
5.32
3.32
6.82
5.04
4.12
4.14
5.78
4.18
:
6.4
4.99
4.13

4.38
4.15
5.36
4.82
4.3
4.04
4.08
4.26
4.1
4.1
4.26
5.8
4.86
4.5
2.84
8.19
4.69
4.1
4.13
6.9
4.14
:
4.68
5.03
4.11

3.7
3.43
3.87
3.54
3.4
3.35
3.33
3.59
3.39
3.41
3.56
5.16
3.88
3.7
2.41
6.6
4.56
3.37
3.39
5.22
3.44
:
3.81
3.52
3.35

4.03
3.81
4.18
3.8
3.81
3.76
3.76
4.07
3.78
3.8
4.05
4.13
4.13
4.08
3.3
7.12
4.32
3.78
3.8
5.23
3.91
7.23
3.85
4.41
3.78

4.56
4.33
4.54
4.3
4.29
4.22
4.31
4.5
4.31
4.3
4.49
4.48
5.28
4.55
4.46
6.74
4.72
4.29
4.3
5.48
4.42
7.13
4.53
4.49
4.29

4.54
4.42
5.38
4.63
4.28
3.98
4.53
4.8
4.37
4.23
4.68
4.6
6.43
5.61
4.61
8.24
4.81
4.23
4.36
6.07
4.52
7.7
4.61
4.72
4.29

4.13
3.9
7.22
4.84
3.59
3.22
5.23
5.17
3.98
3.65
4.31
4.6
12.4
14
4.23
9.12
4.54
3.69
3.94
6.12
4.21
9.69
4.38
4.71
3.74

3.82
3.46
6.01
3.88
2.93
2.74
5.74
9.09
4.25
3.12
4.04
4.6
10.3
5.57
3.17
7.28
4.19
2.99
3.23
5.78
5.4
7.34
3.83
3.87
3.01

4.3
4.23
5.36
3.71
2.73
2.61
9.6
15.8
5.44
3.32
5.42
5.79
5.91
5.16
2.92
7.64
4.49
2.99
3.32
5.96
10.2
7.29
4.97
4.45
3.01

Sweden
United Kingdom

5.37
5.33

5.11
5.01

5.3
4.91

4.64
4.58

4.42
4.93

3.38
4.46

3.7
4.37

4.17
5.06

3.89
4.5

3.25
3.36

2.89
3.36

2.61
2.87

CDS - prima de asigurare pe care un creditor trebuie s o plteasc unui ter pentru ca, n cazul
n care debitorul intr n incapacitate de plat, s i poat recupera integral suma plasat.

Deficitul bugetar
ESA95
2002
-2.6
-0.1
-1.2
-6.5
0.4
-3.8
0.3
-0.4
-4.8
-0.2
-3.1
-3.1
-4.4
-2.3
-1.9
2.1
-9
-5.8
-2.1
-0.7
-5
-3.4
-2
-2.4
-8.2
4.2
-1.3
-2.1

EU (27 countries)
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom

2003
-3.2
-0.1
-0.4
-6.7
0.1
-4.2
1.7
0.4
-5.6
-0.3
-4.1
-3.6
-6.6
-1.6
-1.3
0.5
-7.3
-9.2
-3.1
-1.5
-6.2
-3.7
-1.5
-2.7
-2.8
2.6
-1
-3.4

2004
-2.9
-0.1
1.9
-2.8
2.1
-3.8
1.6
1.4
-7.5
-0.1
-3.6
-3.5
-4.1
-1
-1.5
-1.1
-6.5
-4.7
-1.7
-4.4
-5.4
-4
-1.2
-2.3
-2.4
2.5
0.6
-3.5

2005
-2.5
-2.5
1
-3.2
5.2
-3.3
1.6
1.7
-5.2
1.3
-2.9
-4.4
-2.4
-0.4
-0.5
0
-7.9
-2.9
-0.3
-1.7
-4.1
-6.5
-1.2
-1.5
-2.8
2.9
2.2
-3.4

2006
-1.5
0.4
1.9
-2.4
5.2
-1.6
2.5
2.9
-5.7
2.4
-2.3
-3.4
-1.2
-0.5
-0.4
1.4
-9.4
-2.8
0.5
-1.5
-3.6
-4.6
-2.2
-1.4
-3.2
4.2
2.3
-2.7

2007
-0.9
-0.1
1.2
-0.7
4.8
0.2
2.4
0.1
-6.5
1.9
-2.7
-1.6
3.5
-0.4
-1
3.7
-5.1
-2.3
0.2
-0.9
-1.9
-3.1
-2.9
0
-1.8
5.3
3.6
-2.8

2008
-2.4
-1
1.7
-2.2
3.2
-0.1
-2.9
-7.4
-9.8
-4.5
-3.3
-2.7
0.9
-4.2
-3.3
3.2
-3.7
-4.6
0.5
-0.9
-3.7
-3.6
-5.7
-1.9
-2.1
4.4
2.2
-5.1

2009
-6.9
-5.5
-4.3
-5.8
-2.7
-3.1
-2
-13.9
-15.6
-11.2
-7.5
-5.4
-6.1
-9.8
-9.4
-0.8
-4.6
-3.9
-5.6
-4.1
-7.4
-10.2
-9
-6
-8
-2.5
-0.7
-11.5

2010
-6.5
-3.8
-3.1
-4.8
-2.5
-4.1
0.2
-30.9
-10.7
-9.7
-7.1
-4.5
-5.3
-8.1
-7.2
-0.8
-4.4
-3.6
-5.1
-4.5
-7.9
-9.8
-6.8
-5.7
-7.7
-2.5
0.3
-10.2

2011
-4.4
-3.7
-2
-3.3
-1.8
-0.8
1.1
-13.4
-9.4
-9.4
-5.2
-3.9
-6.3
-3.4
-5.5
-0.3
4.3
-2.7
-4.5
-2.5
-5
-4.4
-5.5
-6.4
-4.9
-0.6
0.4
-7.8

Eurostat utilizeaza metoda ESA, in vreme ce FMI foloseste metoda cash. In cazul standardului ESA de pilda,
garantiile de stat se adauga la deficit, iar deficitul calculat astfel este mai mare decat cel obtinut prin calculul
folosit de FMI.
Standardul ESA95 are ca principale diferent fata de metodologia cash inregistrarea veniturilor si cheltuielilor in
sistem accrual (pe baza de angajamente, nu de plati efective precum in sistemul cash).

Datoria public
1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

EU (27 countries)

65.8

61.9

61

60.5

61.9

62.3

62.8

61.6

59

62.2

74.6

80

82.5

Belgium

114

108

107

103

98.4

94

92

88

84

89.2

95.7

95.5

97.8

Bulgaria

77.6

72.5

66

52.4

44.4

37

27.5

21.6

17.2

13.7

14.6

16.2

16.3

Czech Republic

15.8

17.8

23.9

27.1

28.6

28.9

28.4

28.3

27.9

28.7

34.2

37.8

40.8

Denmark

58.1

52.4

49.6

49.5

47.2

45.1

37.8

32.1

27.1

33.4

40.6

42.9

46.6

Germany

61.3

60.2

59.1

60.7

64.4

66.2

68.5

68

65.2

66.8

74.5

82.5

80.5

Estonia

6.5

5.1

4.8

5.7

5.6

4.6

4.4

3.7

4.5

7.2

6.7

6.1

Ireland

47

35.1

35.2

32

30.7

29.5

27.3

24.6

25.1

44.5

64.9

92.2

106

Greece

94

103

104

102

97.4

98.6

100

106

107

113

130

148

171

Spain

62.4

59.4

55.6

52.6

48.8

46.3

43.2

39.7

36.3

40.2

53.9

61.5

France

58.9

57.3

56.9

58.8

62.9

64.9

66.4

63.7

64.2

68.2

79.2

82.3

86

Italy

113

109

108

105

104

103

106

106

103

106

116

119

121

Cyprus

59.3

59.6

61.2

65.1

69.7

70.9

69.4

64.7

58.8

48.9

58.5

61.3

71.1

Latvia

12.5

12.4

14.1

13.6

14.7

15

12.5

10.7

19.8

36.7

44.5

42.2

Lithuania

22.7

23.6

23

22.2

21

19.3

18.3

17.9

16.8

15.5

29.3

37.9

38.5

Luxembourg

69.3

6.4

6.2

6.3

6.3

6.1

6.3

6.1

6.7

6.7

14.4

15.3

19.2

18.3

Hungary

60.8

56.1

52.7

55.9

58.6

59.5

61.7

65.9

67

73

79.8

81.8

81.4

Malta

57.1

54.9

60.5

59.1

67.6

71.7

69.7

64

61.9

62

67.6

68.3

70.9

Netherlands

61.1

53.8

50.7

50.5

52

52.4

51.8

47.4

45.3

58.5

60.8

63.1

65.5

Austria

66.8

66.2

66.8

66.2

65.3

64.7

64.2

62.3

60.2

63.8

69.2

72

72.4

Poland

39.6

36.8

37.6

42.2

47.1

45.7

47.1

47.7

45

47.1

50.9

54.8

56.4

Portugal

51.4

50.7

53.8

56.8

59.4

61.9

67.7

69.4

68.4

71.7

83.2

93.5

108

Romania

21.7

22.5

25.7

24.9

21.5

18.7

15.8

12.4

12.8

13.4

23.6

30.5

33.4

Slovenia

24.1

26.3

26.5

27.8

27.2

27.3

26.7

26.4

23.1

22

35

38.6

46.9

Slovakia

47.8

50.3

48.9

43.4

42.4

41.5

34.2

30.5

29.6

27.9

35.6

41

43.3

Finland

45.7

43.8

42.5

41.5

44.5

44.4

41.7

39.6

35.2

33.9

43.5

48.6

49

Sweden

64.3

53.9

54.7

52.5

51.7

50.3

50.4

45.3

40.2

38.8

42.6

39.5

38.4

United Kingdom

43.7

41

37.7

37.7

39.1

41

42.2

43.3

44.2

52.3

67.8

79.4

85

Cursul de schimb