Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Cipnec Eof VolII
Cipnec Eof VolII
Evaluarea opiunilor
financiare
Volumul II. Modele
multifactoriale
Bucureti
2009
Cuprins
Introducere ....................................................................................................................3
I. Modele cu rata dobnzii stocastic ...........................................................................7
I.1 Ecuaia de evaluare ..............................................................................................7
I.2 Modelul SIOU.....................................................................................................10
I.3 Modelul SICIR ....................................................................................................12
I.4 Modelul SICIR-modificat....................................................................................14
I.5 Modelul SICIR pentru opiuni avnd ca activ suport contracte futures.............16
I.6 Comparaie cu modelul Black-Scholes-Merton..................................................18
II. Modele cu volatilitate stocastic............................................................................27
II.1 Ecuaia de evaluare...........................................................................................27
II.2 Modelul SVOU ..................................................................................................30
II.3 Modelul SVCIR..................................................................................................32
II.4 Modelul Bates pentru opiuni care au ca activ suport valute ...........................33
II.5 Modelul Bates pentru opiuni care au ca activ suport contracte futures..........35
II.6 Comparaie cu modelul Black-Scholes-Merton ................................................37
III. Modele cu rata dobnzii i volatilitate stocastice ................................................45
III.1 Ecuaia de evaluare .........................................................................................45
III.2 Modelul SICIR-SVCIR .....................................................................................48
III.3 Modelul SICIR-SVCIR-modificat.....................................................................50
III.4 Modelul SICIR-SVCIR pentru opiuni care au ca activ suport contracte futures
..................................................................................................................................52
III.5 Comparaie cu modelul Black-Scholes-Merton ...............................................54
Introducere
unde (), () sunt funcii deterministe, iar W1 ,W2 sunt micri browniene
independente. Evident reprezint coeficientul de corelaie dintre cursul activului
suport i rata dobnzii fr risc.
Considerm o opiune cu scaden T. Vom nota cu C (t ) valoarea la momentul
t [0, T ] a opiunii. Valoarea opiunii depinde att de cursul activului suport ct i de
B(t , T ) =
E exp r(u)du | Ft
T
1.2
(W1 ,W2 ) i reprezint totalitatea informaiilor cunoscute la momentul t , iar media este
fcut fa de msura neutr la risc.
Rezult c valoarea bondului depinde de rata dobnzii fr risc i aplicnd
lema lui Ito generalizat (Anexa 1) rezult c:
B
(t, r ) + 1 2 (r ) B2 (t, r ) dt +
dB(t , r ) = (t , r ) + (r )
r
2
r
t
+ (r )
B
(t, r ) dW1 + 1 2 (r ) B (t, r ) dW2
r
r
1.3
1.4
B (t , r ) = (r )
B
(t, r ) 1
r
B (t , r )
1.5
1.6
1.7
Avem c:
d (t ) = a (t ) dS (t ) + b(t ) dB (t )
= a (t ) [r (t ) S (t ) dt + S (t ) dW1 (t )] +
= [r (t ) (a (t ) S (t ) + b(t ) B (t ))] dt +
+ [a (t ) S (t ) + b(t ) B (t , r ) B (t )] dW1 +
+ b(t ) 1 2 B (t , r ) B (t ) dW2
1.8
dC (t ) =
+ L1C dt +
dS (t ) +
dr (t )
S
r
t
C
C
C
=
+ L1C + r S
+ (r )
dt +
S
r
t
C
C
+
S (t ) +
(r ) dW1 (t ) +
r
S
+
1 2 (r ) dW2 (t )
r
1.9
unde
L1C =
1 2 2 2C
2C 1 2
2C
S 2 + S (r )
+ (r ) 2
2
S
Sr 2
r
r
b(t ) =
= r
B
B (t , r ) B (t )
r
a (t ) =
C
S
1.10
Notnd cu
L C = L1C + r S
C
C
+ (r )
r
S
1.11
C
+ LC r C = 0
t
1.12
1.13
dr (t ) = ( r r r (t )) dt + r dW1 (t ) + 1 2 r dW2 (t )
1.14
unde
M (t , T ) =
N (t , T ) =
1 exp{ r (T t )}
r M 2 (t , T )
4 r
2
(M (t, T ) T + t ) r r r
2
2
1.15
B (t , r ) = r M (t , T )
i deci aceasta nu depinde de r.
In acest caz prin rezolvarea ecuaiei 1.12 (Merton (1973)) se obine valoarea
unei opiuni call europene cu pre de exerciiu X i scaden T
C (t ) = S (t ) N (d 1 ) B (t , T ) X N (d 2 )
1.16
unde
1 2
S (t )
ln
ln B (t , T ) + (T t )
2
X
d1 =
T t
10
+ B2 (u ) 2 B (u ))du
T t
R(t , T ) =
ln B(t , T )
T t
Astfel avem c:
S =
r =
C
= N (d 1 )
S
1
1
B
C C R
=
= (T t ) X B (t , T ) N (d 2 )
r R r
T t B (t , T ) r
= M (t , T ) X B (t , T ) N (d 2 )
S =
2C S
=
=
S 2
S
d2
1
exp 1
2 S T t
2
B
d12 d 2 R
1
2 C r
r = 2 =
= M (t , T ) X N (d 2 ) + B (t , T )
exp
r
r
2
2 R r
r
d2
1
1
= M (t , T ) X B (t , T ) M (t , T ) N (d 2 ) + M (t , T )
exp 1
2
2 T t
d2
1
1
= M 2 (t , T ) X B (t , T ) N (d 2 ) +
exp 1
2
2 T t
S ,r =
2 C S
=
=
r
Sr
=
d 2 d R
1
exp 1 1
2
2 R r
d2
M (t , T )
exp 1
2 T t
2
1.17
C
:
t
1
1
+ 2 S 2 S + S r S ,r + r2 r + rS S + ( r r r ) r rC = 0
2
2
1.18
11
dr (t ) = ( r r r (t )) dt + r r (t ) dW2 (t )
1.19
unde
M (t , T ) =
N (t , T ) =
r
r2
(1 exp{ (T t )})( r )
( r )(T t ) + 2 ln1
2
= r2 + 2 r2
1.20
B (t , r ) = r M (t , T ) r
i deci aceasta depinde de r i este stocastic. Datorit acestui fapt ecuaia de
evaluare a opiunii nu are o soluie frumoas ca n modelul SIOU.
Folosind metodologia din Anexa 2 se obine (Bakshi, Cao i Chen (1997)) c
valoarea unei opiuni call europene este:
C (t , T , S , r ) = S (t ) 1 (t , T , S , r ) X B (t , T ) 2 (t , T , S , r )
12
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , r; )
1 1
+ Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
1.21
unde
(1 exp{ r (T t )})( r r )
i (i + 1) 2
+
(T t ) + i ln(S (t ) )
2
2i (1 exp{ r (T t )})
r (t )
2 r [ r r ](1 exp{ r (T t )})
})(
*
*
*
1 exp r (T t ) r r
r
f 2 (t , T , S (t ), r (t ); ) = exp 2 r r (T t ) + 2 ln1
*
2 r
r
i (i 1) 2
+
(T t ) + i ln(S (t ) ) ln(B (t , T ))
2
})
2(i 1) 1 exp r (T t )
r (t )
+
*
*
*
2 r r r 1 exp r (T t )
](
})
r = r2 2 r2 i
r * = r2 2 r2 (i 1)
1.22
S =
r =
C
= 1
S
= S (t ) 1 X B (t , T ) 2 M (t , T ) 2
r
r
r
e i ln X f1 (t , T , S , r; )
2 C 1 1
= Re
=
S =
d
0
S
S
S 2
r =
22
2 1
B 2
2 C r
(
)
(
,
)
S
t
X
B
t
T
M (t , T ) 2
M (t , T ) 1 X
=
=
2
2
2
r r
r
r
r
r
2 2
2 1
= S (t ) 2 X B(t , T ) 2 2 M (t , T ) 1 + M 2 (t , T ) 2
r
r
r
unde
j (t , T , S , r )
r
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , r; )
Re
d , j = 1,2
0 i
r
13
e i ln X 2 f j (t , T , S , r; )
Re
d , j = 1,2
0 i
r 2
1.23
C
:
t
1
1
+ 2 S 2 S + r2 rr + rS S + ( r r r ) r rC = 0
2
2
1.24
dr (t ) = ( r r r (t )) dt + r r (t ) dW2 (t ) + 1 2 r r (t ) dW4 (t )
1.25
V (t ) =
dS (t )
1
Var
= 2 + S2 r (t )
dt
S (t )
1.26
14
C
+ LC r C = 0
t
1.27
unde
LC =
1 2
C
C
2C 1 2 2C
2C
(
+ r )S 2 2 + r Sr
+ ( r r r )
+ r r 2 + rS
2
r
S
r
Sr 2
S
Folosind metodologia din Anexa 2 se obine c valoarea unei opiuni call
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , r; )
1 1
j (t , T , S , r ) = + Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
1.28
unde
f1 (t , T , S (t ), r (t ); ) = exp r2
r
r
( r r + (1 + i ) r S )(T t )
r2
+
+
(1 exp{ r (T t )})( r r + (1 + i ) r S )
2 ln1
2 r
i (i + 1) 2
(T t ) + i ln(S (t ) )
2
})(
*
*
1 exp r (T t ) r r + i r S
r
f 2 (t , T , S (t ), r (t ); ) = exp 2 2 ln1
*
2 r
r
r
r * r + i r S (T t )
2
r
i (i 1) 2
(T t ) + i ln(S (t ) ) ln(B (t , T ))
2
15
( r (1 + i ) r S )2 r2i (2 + (1 + i ) S2 )
r =
( r i r S )2 r2 (i 1)(2 + i S2 )
r* =
1.29
2 C S 1
=
=
=
Sr
r
r
=
e i ln X f1 (t , T , S , r; )
Re
d
r
0 i
1 2
1
(
+ r )S 2 S + r SrS ,r + r2 rr + rS S + ( r r r ) r rC = 0
2
2
1.30
dr (t ) = ( r r r (t )) dt + r r (t ) dW2 (t )
1.31
d (t ) = S (, r ) dW1 (t ) + r (, r )dW2 (t )
Pentru deducerea formulelor de mai jos folosim unele rezultate obinute de
Bakshi i Chen (1997b) i le adaptm la situaia noastr.
16
S (t )
D (t , T )
unde
(1 exp{ (T t )})( r )
D (t , T ) = exp r2 ( r )(T t ) + 2 ln1
= r2 2 r2
1.32
j (t , T , , r ) =
e i ln X f j (t , T , , r; )
1 1
+ Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
1.33
unde
(1 exp{ r (T t )})( r r )
r
r
i (i + 1) 2
+
(T t ) + i ln( (t ) ) + i ln(D(t , T ) )
2
2i (1 exp{ r (T t )})
r (t )
2 r [ r r ](1 exp{ r (T t )})
})(
*
*
*
1 exp r (T t ) r r
f 2 (t , T , (t ), r (t ); ) = exp r2 r r (T t ) + 2 ln1
*
2 r
r
i (i 1) 2
+
(T t ) + i ln( (t ) )
2
+ i ln (D(t , T ) ) ln(B (t , T ))
})
2(i 1) 1 exp r (T t )
+
r (t )
*
*
*
2 r r r 1 exp r (T t )
](
})
r = r2 2 r2 i
r * = r2 2 r2 (i 1)
1.34
17
r = 0.02, r = 0.6, r = 3%
Influena mediei pe termen lung a ratei dobnzii ( r ) asupra diferenei de pre
este prezentat in figura 1.1.
0.02
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
-0.02
60
-0.04
0.01
-0.06
0.02
-0.08
0.03
-0.1
-0.12
-0.14
18
0.02
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
-0.02
60
-0.04
0.5
-0.06
0.6
-0.08
0.7
-0.1
-0.12
-0.14
0.001
-0.002
BS
-0.003
SICIR
-0.004
-0.005
-0.007
4.69
4.68
4.67
4.65
4.64
4.63
4.61
4.6
4.59
4.58
4.56
-0.006
-0.008
-0.009
-0.01
Skewness
BS
SICIR
Kurtosis
0
1.23621E-06
2.43472108
19
139
132
125
118
110
103
96
88.8
81.6
74.4
67.2
-0.001
60
-0.02
-0.00005
-0.03
-0.0001
-0.04
-0.00015
-0.05
-0.0002
-0.06
-0.00025
-0.07
-0.0003
-0.08
20
139
132
125
118
110
103
96
88.8
-0.01
81.6
74.4
0
60
0.00005
67.2
factorului de actualizare.
21
0
0.02
137
132
127
122
118
113
108
103
98.
93.
88.
84
79.
74.
69.
64.
-0.02
60
-0.04
0.01
-0.06
0.02
-0.08
0.03
-0.1
-0.12
-0.14
a
0.5
0.02
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
-0.02
60
-0.04
0.01
-0.06
0.02
-0.08
0.03
-0.1
-0.12
-0.14
b
-0.5
0.02
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
-0.02
60
-0.04
0.01
-0.06
0.02
-0.08
0.03
-0.1
-0.12
-0.14
c
Figura 1.5. Influena mediei pe termen lung a ratei dobnzii
22
-1
0.02
137
132
127
122
118
113
108
103
98.
93.
88.
84
79.
74.
69.
64.
-0.02
60
0
0.02
-0.04
0.03
-0.06
0.04
-0.08
-0.1
-0.12
23
BS
-1
-0.75
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
4.69
4.68
4.67
4.65
4.64
4.63
4.6
4.61
4.59
Kurtosis
0
0.001451153
0.001093464
0.000736817
0.000717122
2.29365E-05
-0.000331757
-0.000688253
-0.001041893
-0.001397017
0
1.577853157
-0.021945539
-0.932650547
-0.845394729
-2.7388638
-1.385680834
-0.605359411
-1.595838874
0.06302426
0.002
137
132
127
122
118
113
108
103
98.4
93.6
88.8
84
79.2
74.4
69.6
-0.002
64.8
60
-0.004
-0.5
0
-0.006
0.5
-0.008
-0.01
-0.012
b
-1
0.001
-0.002
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
100
-0.001
64
0
60
4.58
4.56
Skewness
0.02
-0.003
0.03
0.04
-0.004
-0.005
-0.006
-0.007
c
Figura 1.7 Distribuia lui ln ST
24
= 0.75 (b).
-0.75
0.02
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
0
-0.02
distr.
-0.04
f.a.
-0.06
total
-0.08
-0.1
-0.12
a
0.75
0.02
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
0
-0.02
distr.
-0.04
f.a.
-0.06
total
-0.08
-0.1
-0.12
b
Figura 1.8. Influenele distribuiei i factorului de actualizare
25
-1
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
96
100
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
-0.005
0.02
0.03
0.04
-0.01
-0.015
-0.02
-0.025
26
unde (), (), () sunt funcii deterministe, iar W1 ,W2 sunt micri browniene
independente. Evident reprezint coeficientul de corelaie dintre cursul activului
suport i volatilitatea sa.
Trebuie fcute cteva precizri n ceea ce privete volatilitatea i msura
neutr la risc. Aa cum se explic n Anexa 4 , datorit inexistenei unui produs
financiar care s depind de volatilitate (volatilitatea nu se tranzacioneaz pe pia),
msura neutr la risc nu este unic. Rezult c prima de risc nu este unic determinat.
De-a lungul timpului s-au fcut diferite ipoteze privind acest lucru. In modelul lor de
volatilitate stocastic Hull i White(1987) consider c prima de risc este zero.
Heston(1993) este primul care consider prima de risc diferit de zero, considernd c
aceasta este proporional cu volatilitatea. Deci:
v (t , S , v ) = v (t ) , const.
2.2
27
Vrem s aflm a (t ) , b(t ) , c(t ) astfel nct acest portofoliu s cloneze opiunea
adic s avem c:
C (t ) = (t ) , () t [0, T ]
2.3
B (t , T ) = e r (T t )
i
2.4
dC (t ) =
+ L1C dt +
dS (t ) +
dv (t )
S
v
t
C
C
C
=
+ L1C + r S
+ (v )
dt +
S
v
t
C
C
+
(v ) S (t ) +
(v ) dW1 (t ) +
v
S
+
1 2 (v ) dW2 (t )
2.5
unde
28
L1C =
2C
2C 1 2
2C
1 2
(v ) S 2 2 + S (v ) (v )
+ (v ) 2
2
S
Sv 2
v
Mai notm cu
L C = L1C + r S
C
C
+ (v )
S
v
2.6
C
C
(v )S (t ) +
(v )dW1 +
1 2 (v )dW2
+ L C dt +
+ c(t )
v
v
+ L C dt +
= r (t ) (a (t ) S (t ) + b(t ) B (t )) + c(t )
t
C
(v )S (t ) +
(v ) dW1 +
+ a (t ) (v )S (t ) + c(t )
v
S
1 2 (v ) dW2
+ c(t )
2.7
C
c(t ) = v
C
v
a (t ) =
C
C
c(t )
S
S
b( t ) =
C (t ) a (t ) S (t ) c(t )C (t )
B(t )
2.8
= a (t , S , v )
=
C
C
v
v
29
C
+ LC r C = 0
t
2.10
C ( t ) + X e r ( T t ) = P ( t ) + S ( t )
2.11
dv (t ) = ( v v v (t )) dt + v dW1 (t ) + 1 2 v dW2 (t )
C (t , T , S , v ) = S (t ) 1 (t , T , S , v ) X e r (T t ) 2 (t , T , S , v )
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , v; )
1 1
j (t , T , S , v ) = + Re
d , j = 1,2
i
2 0
2.13
unde
f1 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ); ) = exp i (r (T t ) + ln S (t ) ) (1 + i ) v1v 2 (t ) + v (T t )
2
sinh{ 1 (T t )} + 2 cosh{ 1 (T t )} 2
1
1
v ( t )
2 r
2 v
cosh{ 1 (T t )} + 2 sinh{ 1 (T t )}
v 1 v (t )
2
v1
cosh{ 1 (T t )} + 2 sinh{ 1 (T t )}
30
1
1
ln(cosh{ 1 (T t )} + 2 sinh{ 1 (T t )}) + v (T t )
2
2
(
+
12 3 2
v2 13
2
v
sinh{ 1 (T t )}
cosh{ (T t )} + sinh{ (T t )} 1 (T t )
1
2
1
1 2 3 3
cosh{ 1 (T t )} 1
2 3
v1
cosh{ 1 (T t )} + 2 sinh{ 1 (T t )}
f1 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ); ) = exp i (r (T t ) + ln S (t ) ) i v1v 2 (t ) + v (T t )
2
~
~
~
1
~ sinh{ 1 (T t )} + 2 cosh{ 1 (T t )}v 2 (t )
r
1
cosh{~1 (T t )} + ~2 sinh{~1 (T t )}
2 v2
v~1 v (t )
2~
~
~
~
v1
cosh{ 1 (T t )} + 2 sinh{ 1 (T t )}
1
1
ln(cosh{~1 (T t )} + ~2 sinh{~1 (T t )}) + v (T t )
2
2
+
~12 ~3 2
v2~13
2
v
sinh{~1 (T t )}
~ (T t )
cosh{~ (T t )} + ~ sinh{~ (T t )} 1
1
2
1
~1 ~2~3 ~3
cosh{~1 (T t )} 1
2~ 3
~
~
~
v1
cosh{ 1 (T t )} + 2 sinh{ 1 (T t )}
1
(1 + i )2 (1 2 ) + 1 (1 + i )(1 2 r v1 )
2
2
1 = v2 + 2 v2
2 =
v (1 + i ) )
3 = r ( r v (1 + i ) )
~1 = v2 + 2 v2 2 (1 2 ) + i (1 2 r v1 )
1
2
1
2
~2 = ~ ( r v i )
1
1
~3 = r ( r v i )
2.14
S =
C
= 1
S
31
v =
2
C
= S (t ) 1 X e r (T t )
v
v
v
e i ln X f1 (t , T , S , v; )
2 C 1 1
S =
=
= Re
d
S 2
S
S
0
2
2 1
2 C v
r ( T t ) 2
v = 2 =
= S (t ) 2 X e
v
v
v
v 2
S ,v
2 C S 1
=
=
=
Sv
v
v
unde
j (t , T , S , v )
v
2 j (t , T , S , v )
v 2
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , v; )
Re
d , j = 1,2
0 i
v
e i ln X 2 f j (t , T , S , v; )
Re
d , j = 1,2
v 2
0 i
2.15
1 2 2
1
v S S + v SvS ,v + v2 v + rS S + ( v v v ) v rC = 0
2
2
2.16
dv (t ) = ( v v v (t )) dt + v v (t ) dW1 (t ) + 1 2 v v (t ) dW2 (t )
C (t , T , S , v ) = S (t ) 1 (t , T , S , v ) X e r (T t ) 2 (t , T , S , v )
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , v; )
1 1
j (t , T , S , v ) = + Re
d , j = 1,2
i
2 0
2.18
unde
32
(1 exp{ v (T t )})( v v + (1 + i ) v )
2 ln1
2
v
( v v + (1 + i ) v )(T t )
v2
+ i r (T t ) + i ln (S (t ) )
})(
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v v + i v
v
f 2 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ); ) = exp 2 2 ln1
*
2 v
v
v
v * v + i v (T t )
2
v
+ i r (T t ) + i ln (S (t ) )
{
](
})
i (i 1) 1 exp v (T t )
+
v (t )
*
*
*
2 v v r + i v 1 exp v (T t )
v =
( v (1 + i ) v )2 v2i (1 + i )
v* =
( v i v )2 v2i (i 1)
})
2.19
1 2
1
vS S + v SvS ,v + v2 vv + rS S + ( v v v ) v rC = 0
2
2
2.20
dv (t ) = ( v v v (t )) dt + v v (t ) dW1 (t ) + 1 2 v v (t ) dW2 (t )
33
C
+ LC r C = 0
t
2.22
unde
LC =
2C 1 2 2C
C
1 2 2C
C
vS
+
Sv
+ v v 2 + (r rf )S
+ ( v v v )
v
2
S
Sv 2
v
S
2
v
j (t , T , S , v ) =
rf ( T t )
1 (t , T , S , v ) X e r ( T t ) 2 (t , T , S , v )
e i ln X F j (t , T , S , v; i )
1 1
+ Im
d , j = 1,2
2 0
2.23
unde
F1 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ); ) = exp v2
v
(1 exp{ v (T t )})( v + v (1 + ) v )
2 ln1
2
v
( v + v (1 + ) v )(T t )
v2
+ (r rf )(T t ) + ln (S (t ) )
})(
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v + v v
v
F2 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ); ) = exp 2 2 ln1
*
2 v
v
v
v * + v v (T t )
2
v
+ (r rf )(T t ) + ln (S (t ) )
{
](
})
( 1) 1 exp v * (T t )
v (t )
*
*
*
2 v v + r v 1 exp v (T t )
v =
( v (1 + ) v )2 v2 (1 + )
v* =
( v v )2 v2 ( 1)
})
2.24
34
1 2
1
vS S + v SvS ,v + v2 vv + (r rf )S S + ( v v v ) v rC = 0
2
2
2.25
dv (t ) = ( v v v (t )) dt + v v (t ) dW1 (t ) + 1 2 v v (t ) dW2 (t )
C
+ LC r C = 0
t
2.27
unde
LC =
2C 1 2 2C
1 2 2C
C
vF
+
Fv
+ v v 2 + ( v v v )
v
2
F
Fv 2
v
2
v
C (t , T , F , v ) = F (t ) e r (T t ) 1 (t , T , F , v ) X e r (T t ) 2 (t , T , F , v )
e i ln X F j (t , T , F , v; i )
1 1
j (t , T , F , v ) = + Im
d , j = 1,2
2 0
2.28
unde
(1 exp{ v (T t )})( v + v (1 + ) v )
F1 (t , T , F (t ), v (t ); ) = exp v2 2 ln1
2 v
v
v
( v + v (1 + ) v )(T t )
v2
+ ln (F (t ) )
35
F2 (t , T , F (t ), v (t ); ) = exp v2
v
})(
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v + v v
2
ln
1
*
2 v
v
v * + v v (T t )
2
v
+ ln (F (t ) )
{
](
})
( 1) 1 exp v * (T t )
v (t )
*
*
*
2 v v + r v 1 exp v (T t )
v =
( v (1 + ) v )2 v2 (1 + )
v* =
( v v )2 v2 ( 1)
})
2.29
F =
v =
C
= e r ( T t ) 1
F
1
2
C
= F (t )e r (T t )
X e r (T t )
v
v
v
F =
e i ln X f1 (t , T , F , v; )
2 C 1 1
=
=
Re
d
F 2
F
F
0
v =
2
2
2 C v
r ( T t ) 1
r ( T t ) 2
(
)
=
=
F
t
e
X
e
v 2
v
v 2
v 2
F ,v =
2C F 1
=
=
Sv
v
v
unde
j (t , T , F , v )
v
2 j (t , T , F , v )
v 2
e i ln X f j (t , T , F , v; )
= Re
d , j = 1,2
0 i
v
e i ln X 2 f j (t , T , F , v; )
= Re
d , j = 1,2
v 2
0 i
2.30
1 2
1
vF F + v FvF ,v + v2 vv + ( v v v ) v rC = 0
2
2
2.31
36
v = 0.8, v = 4, v = 20%, = 0
Media pe termen lung a volatilitii ( v ) i viteza de ajustare a acesteia ( v )
influeneaz destul de mult diferena de pre, mai ales n prezena corelaiei dintre
cursul activului i volatilitatea sa. Figura 2.1. prezint influena lui v pentru o
corelaie de 0.5, iar figura 2.2. reprezint influena lui v pentru = 0.5 .
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.8
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.1
40
1.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
37
-0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.1
40
0
3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
38
0
0.15
0.1
0.05
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
94
100
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.05
40
0
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.3
-0.15
-0.2
-0.25
-0.3
a
-0.5
0.4
0.2
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
40
0
-0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
b
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
100
-0.2
46
40
0.3
-0.4
-0.6
c
Figura 2.3 Influena volatilitii volatilitii
39
5.14
5.04
4.94
4.84
4.74
4.64
4.54
4.44
4.34
4.24
4.14
5.14
5.04
4.94
4.84
0.5
4.74
4.64
4.54
4.44
4.34
4.24
4.14
-0.5
5.14
5.04
4.94
4.84
4.74
4.64
4.54
4.44
4.34
4.24
4.14
BS
-1
-0.75
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Skewness
0
-0.1676303
-0.1274851
-0.0870719
-0.0463798
-0.0053973
0.03588789
0.07748799
0.11941767
0.16169
Kurtosis
0
1.64191958
1.27799012
0.74215697
0.6116705
0.49503893
0.5389977
0.63226151
1.24121321
1.6694542
Figura 2.4 arat c n cazul acestui model corelaia are un impact deosebit
asupra distribuiei lui ln ST . De asemenea skewness-ul crete odat cu creterea
corelaiei i are o valoare mult mai mare dect cea de la modelele cu rata dobnzii
stocastic. Pentru a avea o imagine mai bun intre cele dou distribuii figura 2.5
prezint diferena 2 2BS pentru diferite valori ale lui .
40
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
-0.5
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
94
100
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.01
40
0
0.5
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
-0.05
Modelul SVCIR
41
0
0.2
0.1
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
-0.1
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
40
0.3
0.4
-0.2
0.5
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
a
-0.5
0.6
0.4
0.2
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.2
40
0
0.3
0.4
-0.4
0.5
-0.6
-0.8
-1
-1.2
b
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.3
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
100
-0.2
46
40
0.4
0.5
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
c
Figura 2.6 Influena volatilitii volatilitii
42
5.12
5.05
4.98
4.91
4.84
4.7
4.77
4.63
4.56
4.49
4.42
0.5
4.35
0.3
0.5
4.28
0.3
4.21
BS
4.14
BS
5.12
5.05
4.98
4.91
0.5
4.84
4.7
4.77
4.63
4.56
4.49
4.42
4.35
4.28
4.21
4.14
-0.5
BS
0.3
Kurtosis
0.3
0.5
2.53205
6.943
1.78547 5.0299
1.2592 3.5773
0.92384 2.6009
0.78515 2.1823
0.86767 2.3646
1.18397 3.2238
1.75099 4.8571
2.60046 7.3494
5.12
5.05
4.98
4.91
4.84
4.77
4.7
4.63
4.56
4.49
4.42
4.35
4.28
4.21
4.14
0.5
-1
-0.75
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Skewness
0.3
0.5
-0.1924 -0.3255
-0.1467 -0.2507
-0.1007 -0.175
-0.0543 -0.0984
-0.0075 -0.0208
0.03973
0.058
0.08735
0.138
0.13542 0.2192
0.18396 0.3019
43
0.5
0.06
0.04
0.02
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
100
-0.02
46
40
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
-0.1
Figura 2.8
lui v .
In concluzie, modelele cu volatilitate stocastic au influen foarte mare
asupra distribuiei lui mai ales ln S T prin parametrii v i , influen care se
transmite i diferenei ntre preul modelului i preul Black-Scholes-Merton. In lipsa
corelaiei skewness-ul este neglijabil modelul nemaiputnd fi folosit pentru a evalua
opiuni al cror activ suport prezint skewness. Acesta este motivul pentru care am
ales s prezentm doar modele care iau n considerare corelaia dintre activul suport i
volatilitatea sa i s lsm la o parte modelele care nu iau n considerare aceast
corelaie: Hull-White (1987), Scott (1987), Wiggins (1987), Stein-Stein (1991), BallRoma (1994).
44
2
dv (t ) = ( v (t )) dt + v ( v (t )) dW1 (t ) + 1 v ( v (t )) dW2 (t )
dr (t ) = ( r (t )) dt + ( r (t )) dW (t )
3
3.1
unde (), (), (), (), () sunt funcii deterministe, iar W1 , W2 , W3 sunt micri
browniene independente. v reprezint coeficientul de corelaie dintre cursul activului
suport i volatilitatea sa. Inc nu lum n considerare corelaia ntre cursul activului
suport i rata dobnzii fr risc.
Nici n acest caz datorit faptului c volatilitatea este stocastic msura neutr
la risc nu este unic. Pentru a deduce ecuaia de evaluare a unei opiuni cu scaden T
i pre de exerciiu X, notat cu C (t ) , vom construi un portofoliu care s cloneze
opiunea. Acesta va conine active suport, bonduri i nc un tip de activ cu care s
anulm riscul introdus de micarea brownian W2 i anume o opiune cu acelai pre
de exerciiu i scaden T > T notat cu C (t ) .
Considerm un portofoliu format din a (t ) active suport, b(t ) bonduri i c(t )
opiuni C (t ) . Valoarea la momentul t a acestui portofoliu este:
(t ) = a (t ) S (t ) + b(t ) B (t ) + c(t ) C (t )
Vrem s aflm a (t ) , b(t ) , c(t ) astfel nct acest portofoliu s cloneze opiunea
adic s avem c:
C (t ) = (t ) , ( ) t [0, T ]
3.2
45
dB(t , r ) = r (t ) B (t , r ) dt + B (t , r ) B (t , r ) dW3
3.3
dC (t ) =
dS (t ) +
dv (t ) +
dr (t )
+ L1C dt +
S
v
r
t
C
C
C
C
=
+ L1C + r S
+ (v )
+ (r )
dt +
S
v
r
t
C
C
+
(v ) S (t ) +
v (v ) dW1 (t ) +
v
S
C
C
2
+
1 v (v ) dW2 (t ) +
( r ) dW3 (t )
r
v
3.4
unde
2C
2C 1 2 2C 1 2 2C
1
+ (v ) 2 + (r ) 2
L1C = 2 (v )S 2 2 + v S (v ) (v )
S
Sv 2
v
2
2
r
Mai notm cu
L C = L1C + rS
C
C
C
+ (v )
+ (r)
S
v
r
3.5
+ b(t ) [r (t ) B (t ) dt + B B (t ) dW3 (t )]
C
C
2
(v )S (t ) +
v (v )dW1 +
1 v (v )dW2
+ L C dt +
+ c(t )
v
v
+ L C dt +
= r (t ) (a (t ) S (t ) + b(t ) B (t )) + c(t )
t
(v )S (t ) +
v (v ) dW1 +
+ a (t ) (v )S (t ) + c(t )
v
S
46
1 2 (v ) dW2
+ c(t )
v
+ [b(t ) B (t , r ) B(t )] dW3 (t )
3.6
a (t ) =
C
v
C
C
c(t )
S
S
C
b(t ) = r
B
r
C (t ) a (t ) S (t ) c(t )C (t )
B (t )
3.7
C
+ LC r C = 0
t
3.8
Folosind aceleai portofolii considerate i n capitolul 1 relaia de paritate putcall este dat de:
C (t ) + X B (t , T ) = P ( t ) + S (t )
3.9
47
2
dv (t ) = ( v v v (t ))dt + v v v (t )dW1 (t ) + 1 v v v (t )dW2 (t )
dr (t ) = ( r r r (t ))dt + r r (t )dW3 (t )
3.10
j (t , T , S , v, r ) =
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , v, r; )
1 1
+ Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
3.11
unde
f 1 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ), r (t ); ) = exp v2
v
(1 exp{ v (T t )})( v v + (1 + i ) v v )
2 ln1
2
v
( v v + (1 + i ) v v )(T t )
v2
r
r2
r
( r r )(T t ) + i ln(S (t ) )
r2
(1 exp{ r (T t )})( r r )
2 ln1
2 r
2i (1 exp{ r (T t )})
r (t )
2 r [ r r ](1 exp{ r (T t )})
})(
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v v + i v v
v
f 2 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ), r (t ); ) = exp 2 2 ln 1
*
2 v
v
v
v * v + i v v (T t )
2
v
})(
*
*
r
1 exp r (T t ) r r
2 2 ln 1
*
r
2 r
48
r
r * r (T t ) + i ln(S (t ) ) ln( B(t , T ))
2
r
{
](
})
i (i 1) 1 exp v (T t )
v (t )
+
*
*
*
2 v v r + i v 1 exp v (T t )
{
(T t )})
})
2(i 1) 1 exp r
r (t )
*
*
*
2 r r r 1 exp r (T t )
](
})
r = r2 2 r2 i
r * = r2 2 r2 (i 1)
v =
( v (1 + i ) v v )2 v2i (1 + i )
v* =
( v i v v )2 v2i (i 1)
3.12
S =
v =
C
= 1
S
2
C
= S (t ) 1 X B(t , T )
v
v
v
= S (t ) 1 X B (t , T ) 2 M (t , T ) 2
r
r
r
r =
e i ln X f1 (t , T , S , v; )
2 C 1 1
S =
=
=
Re
d
S 2
S
S
0
v =
r =
2 1
2 2
2C v
(
)
=
=
(
,
)
S
t
X
B
t
T
v 2
v
v 2
v 2
22
2 1
2C
(
)
=
2 M (t , T ) 1 + M 2 (t , T ) 2
S
t
X
B
(
t
,
T
)
2
2
2
r
r
r
r
S ,v =
2 C S 1
=
=
Sv
v
v
unde
j (t , T , S , v, r )
g
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , v, r; )
= Re
d , j = 1,2 g = v, r
0 i
v
2 j (t , T , S , v, r )
g 2
e i ln X 2 f j (t , T , S , v, r; )
= Re
d , j = 1,2 g = v, r
v 2
0 i
3.13
49
1 2
1
1
vS S + v v SvS ,v + v2 vv + r2 rr +
2
2
2
+ rS S + ( v v v ) v + ( r r v ) r rC = 0
3.14
2
dv (t ) = ( v v v (t ))dt + v v v(t )dW1 (t ) + 1 v v v(t )dW3 (t )
2
dr (t ) = ( r r r (t ))dt + r r r (t )dW2 (t ) + 1 r r r (t )dW4 (t )
unde W1 , W2 , W3 , W4 sunt micri browniene independente.
3.15
Avem c:
V (t ) =
dS (t )
1
Var
= v (t ) + S2 r (t )
dt
S (t )
3.16
C
+ LC r C = 0
t
unde
2
2C
2C 1 2 2C 1 2 2C
1
2 C
+ r r Sr
+ v v Sv
+ rr 2 + vv 2
L C = (v + r )S
S 2
Sr
Sv 2
r
2
2
v
+ rS
C
C
C
+ ( r r r )
+ ( v v r )
S
r
v
3.17
50
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , v, r; )
1 1
j (t , T , S , v, r ) = + Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
3.18
unde
(1 exp{ v (T t )})( v v + (1 + i ) v v )
f 1 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ), r (t ); ) = exp v2 2 ln1
2 v
v
v
( v v + (1 + i ) v v )(T t )
v2
r
r2
r2
r
(1 exp{ r (T t )})( r r + (1 + i ) r r S )
2 ln1
2
( r r + (1 + i ) r r S )(T t )
+ i ln (S (t ) )
+
f 2 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ), r (t ); ) = exp v2
v
})(
v
v * v + i v v (T t )
2
v
r2
r
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v v + i v v
2
ln
1
*
2 v
})(
*
*
1 exp r (T t ) r r + i r r S
2
ln
1
*
2 r
r
r * r + i r S (T t )
2
r
+ i ln (S (t ) ) ln (B (t , T ))
{
](
})
i (i 1) 1 exp v (T t )
v (t )
+
*
*
*
2 v v r + i v 1 exp v (T t )
})
51
( r (1 + i ) r r S )2 r2i (2 + (1 + i ) S2 )
r =
( r i r r S )2 r2 (i 1)(2 + i S2 )
r* =
v =
( v (1 + i ) v v )2 v2i (1 + i )
( v i v v )2 v2i (i 1)
v* =
3.19
2 C S 1
=
=
Sr
r
r
e i ln X f1 (t , T , S , v, r; )
Re
d
0 i
r
1
(v + r )S 2 S + v v SvS ,v + r r SrS ,r + 1 v2 vv + 1 r2 rr +
2
2
2
+ rS S + ( v v v ) v + ( r r r ) r rC = 0
3.20
j (t , T , , v, r ) =
e i ln X f j (t , T , , v, r; )
1 1
+ Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
3.21
unde
52
(1 exp{ v (T t )})( v v + (1 + i ) v v )
2 ln1
2
v
( v v + (1 + i ) v v )(T t )
v2
r
r2
(1 exp{ r (T t )})( r r )
2 ln1
2 r
r
( r r )(T t ) + i ln( (t ) ) + i ln(D(t, T ) )
r2
2i (1 exp{ r (T t )})
r (t )
2 r [ r r ](1 exp{ r (T t )})
})(
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v v + i v v
f 2 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ), r (t ); ) = exp v2 2 ln1
*
2 v
v
v
v * v + i v v (T t )
2
v
})(
*
*
r
1 exp r (T t ) r r
2 2 ln1
*
r
2 r
r
r * r (T t )
2
r
+ i ln ( (t ) ) + i ln (D(t , T ) ) ln (B (t , T ))
{
](
})
i (i 1) 1 exp v (T t )
v (t )
+
*
*
*
2 v v r + i v 1 exp v (T t )
{
(T t )})
})
2(i 1) 1 exp r
r (t )
*
*
*
2 r r r 1 exp r (T t )
](
})
r = r2 2 r2 i
r * = r2 2 r2 (i 1)
v =
( v (1 + i ) v v )2 v2i (1 + i )
v* =
( v i v v )2 v2i (i 1)
3.22
53
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
-0.1
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
0.01
0.02
0.03
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
a
-0.5
0.2
0.1
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
100
-0.1
64
60
0.5
0.6
-0.2
0.7
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
b
Figura 3.1 Influena mediei pe termen lung (a) i vitezei de ajustare (b) a ratei dobnzii
54
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
-0.1
100
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
0.3
-0.2
0.4
0.5
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
a
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
140
136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
96
92
88
84
80
76
72
68
100
-0.1
64
60
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
b
Figura 3.2 Influena volatilitii volatilitii
55
5.15
5.05
4.95
4.85
4.75
4.65
4.55
4.45
4.35
4.25
4.15
5.15
5.05
4.95
4.85
0.5
4.75
4.65
4.55
4.45
4.35
4.25
4.15
-0.5
5.15
5.05
4.95
4.85
4.75
4.65
4.55
4.45
4.35
4.25
4.15
-1
-0.75
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Skewness
-0.23496196
-0.17983137
-0.12424803
-0.06818656
-0.01161993
0.04548118
0.10314843
0.16141562
0.22031985
Kurtosis
8.532804089
5.985763443
4.05352822
2.795517618
2.242745201
2.474106875
3.554791665
5.549130586
8.566617016
56
capitolul 2.
In cadrul analizei distribuiei lui ln ST pentru a pune n eviden diferenele
fa de repartiia normal considerm c T t = 0.5 . Se constat din forma distribuiei
c in cazul unei corelaii negative valorile opiunilor OTM date de model sunt mai
mici dect preurile Black-Scholes-Merton. Diferena se accentueaz pe msura
creterii volatilitii volatilitii. Situaia este invers dac corelaia este pozitiv.
Aceast observaie este n concordan cu cele observate din graficul 3.2
In continuare ne propunem s cuantificm influena celor doi factori
(distribuia i factorul de actualizare) asupra diferenei de pre.
-0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
137
132
127
122
118
113
108
103
98.4
93.6
88.8
84
79.2
74.4
69.6
-0.1
64.8
60
0
distr
f.a.
total
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
137
132
127
122
118
113
108
103
98.4
93.6
88.8
84
79.2
74.4
69.6
-0.1
64.8
60
distr
f.a.
total
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
57
subevaluate
de
modelul
SICIR-SVCIR
indiferent
de
semnul
coeficientului de corelaie.
Modelul SICIR-SVCIR-modificat
0.02
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.02
40
-0.04
-0.06
-1
-0.08
-0.1
-0.12
-0.14
-0.16
-0.18
dobnzii fr risc ( r ). Figura 3.5 arat c acesta influeneaz diferena de pre doar
n mic msur i doar pentru valori apropiate de extreme.
58
59
4.1
Deoarece
media
creterii
ratei
rentabilitii
datorat
4.2
salturilor
este
E [J (t )dq(t )] = j dt iar pe total aceasta este rdt rezult c media creterii datorat
4.3
+ L C dt +
dC (t ) =
SdW + [C ((1 + J )S ) C (S )] dq(t )
S
t
4.4
unde
C
1 2C 2 2
LC =
S + (r j )S
2
2 S
S
= (r j )a (t ) S (t ) + rb(t ) B (t ) dt
+ a (t )S (t )dW (t ) + a (t ) J (t ) S (t )dq(t )
4.5
Rezult c:
a (t ) =
C
S
C
+ L C + E [C ((1 + J )S ) C (S )] rC = 0
t
4.6
va fi (r j )S .
S
61
dr (t ) = ( r r r (t ))dt + r r (t )dW2 (t )
ln[1 + J (t )] ~ N ln[1 + j ] 1 2j , 2j
4.7
j (t , T , S , r ) =
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , r; )
1 1
+ Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
4.8
unde
(1 exp{ r (T t )})( r r )
i (i + 1) 2
+
(T t ) + i ln(S (t ) )
2
i
i
+ (1 + j )(1 + j ) exp (1 + i ) 2j 1 i j (T t )
2
2i (1 exp{ r (T t )})
+
r (t )
2 r [ r r ](1 exp{ r (T t )})
})(
*
*
*
1 exp r (T t ) r r
f 2 (t , T , S (t ), r (t ); ) = exp r2 r r (T t ) + 2 ln1
*
2 r
r
i (i 1) 2
+
(T t ) + i ln(S (t ) ) ln(B (t , T ))
2
i
i
+ (1 + j ) exp (i 1) 2j 1 i j (T t )
2
62
})
2(i 1) 1 exp r (T t )
r (t )
*
*
*
2 r r r 1 exp r (T t )
](
})
r = r2 2 r2 i
r * = r2 2 r2 (i 1)
4.9
2
dv (t ) = ( v v v (t ))dt + v v (t )dW1 (t ) + 1 v v (t )dW2 (t )
ln[1 + J (t )] ~ N ln[1 + j ] 1 2j , 2j
4.10
C (t , T , S , v ) = S (t ) 1 (t , T , S , v ) X e r ( T t ) 2 (t , T , S , v )
j (t , T , S , v ) =
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , v; )
1 1
+ Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
4.11
unde
f 1 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ); ) = exp v2
v
(1 exp{ v (T t )})( v v + (1 + i ) v )
2 ln1
2
v
( v v + (1 + i ) v )(T t )
v2
+ i r (T t ) + i ln (S (t ) )
i
i
+ (1 + j )(1 + j ) exp (1 + i ) 2j 1 i j (T t )
2
63
})(
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v v + i v
v
f 2 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ); ) = exp 2 2 ln1
*
2 v
v
v
v * v + i v (T t )
2
v
+ i r (T t ) + i ln (S (t ) )
i
i
+ (1 + j ) exp (i 1) 2j 1 i j (T t )
2
{
](
})
i (i 1) 1 exp v (T t )
v (t )
*
*
*
2 v v r + i v 1 exp v (T t )
v =
( v (1 + i ) v )2 v2i (1 + i )
v* =
( v i v )2 v2i (i 1)
})
4.12
dr (t ) = ( r (t ))dt + r (t )dW (t )
3
r
r
r
1 2 2
ln[1 + J (t )] ~ N ln[1 + j ] 2 j , j
4.13
e i ln X f j (t , T , S , v, r; )
1 1
j (t , T , S , v, r ) = + Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
4.14
64
f 1 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ), r (t ); ) = exp v2 2 ln1
2 v
v
v
( v v + (1 + i ) v v )(T t )
v2
r
r2
(1 exp{ r (T t )})( r r )
2 ln1
2
r
( r r )(T t ) + i ln(S (t ) )
r2
i
i
+ (1 + j )(1 + j ) exp (1 + i ) 2j 1 i j (T t )
2
2i (1 exp{ r (T t )})
r (t )
2 r [ r r ](1 exp{ r (T t )})
f 2 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ), r (t ); ) = exp v2
v
})(
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v v + i v v
2 ln1
*
2 v
v
v * v + i v v (T t )
2
v
r
r2
r
r * r (T t ) + i ln(S (t ) ) ln( B(t , T ))
2
r
})(
*
*
1 exp r (T t ) r r
2
ln
1
*
2 r
i
+ (1 + j ) i exp (i 1) 2j 1 i j (T t )
2
{
](
})
i (i 1) 1 exp v (T t )
v (t )
*
*
*
2 v v r + i v 1 exp v (T t )
2(i 1) 1 exp r
r (t )
*
*
*
2 r r r 1 exp r (T t )
](
{
(T t )})
})
})
r = r2 2 r2 i
65
r * = r2 2 r2 (i 1)
v =
( v (1 + i ) v v )2 v2i (1 + i )
v* =
( v i v v )2 v2i (i 1)
4.15
2
dv (t ) = ( v v v (t ))dt + v v (t )dW1 (t ) + 1 v v (t )dW2 (t )
ln[1 + J (t )] ~ N ln[1 + j ] 1 2j , 2j
4.16
j (t , T , S , v ) =
rf ( T t )
1 (t , T , S , v ) X e r ( T t ) 2 (t , T , S , v )
e i ln X F j (t , T , S , v; i )
1 1
+ Im
d , j = 1,2
2 0
4.17
unde
F1 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ); ) = exp v2
v
(1 exp{ v (T t )})( v + v (1 + ) v )
2 ln1
2
v
( v + v (1 + ) v )(T t )
v2
+ (r rf )(T t ) + ln (S (t ) )
+ (1 + j )(1 + j ) exp (1 + ) 2j 1 j (T t )
2
66
})(
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v + v v
v
F2 (t , T , S (t ), v (t ); ) = exp 2 2 ln1
*
2 v
v
v
v * + v v (T t )
2
v
+ (r rf )(T t ) + ln (S (t ) )
+ (1 + j ) exp ( 1) 2j 1 j (T t )
2
{
](
})
( 1) 1 exp v * (T t )
v (t )
*
*
*
2 v v + r v 1 exp v (T t )
v =
( v (1 + ) v )2 v2 (1 + )
v* =
( v v )2 v2 ( 1)
})
4.18
2
dv (t ) = ( v v v (t ))dt + v v (t )dW1 (t ) + 1 v v (t )dW2 (t )
ln[1 + J (t )] ~ N ln[1 + j ] 1 2j , 2j
2
4.19
Pentru a afla valoarea unei opiuni se folosete aceeai metodologie din Anexa
2 (din nou n loc de funciile caracteristice folosim funciile generatoare de momente
(Bates(2000)) ):
C (t , T , F , v ) = F (t ) e r (T t ) 1 (t , T , F , v ) X e r (T t ) 2 (t , T , F , v )
67
e i ln X F j (t , T , F , v; i )
1 1
+ Im
d , j = 1,2
2 0
4.20
unde
F1 (t , T , F (t ), v (t ); ) = exp v2
v
(1 exp{ v (T t )})( v + v (1 + ) v )
2 ln1
2
v
( v + v (1 + ) v )(T t )
v2
+ ln (F (t ) )
+ (1 + j )(1 + j ) exp (1 + ) 2j 1 j (T t )
2
})(
*
*
1 exp v (T t ) v + v v
v
F2 (t , T , F (t ), v (t ); ) = exp 2 2 ln1
*
2 v
v
v
v * + v v (T t )
2
v
+ ln (F (t ) )
+ (1 + j ) exp ( 1) 2j 1 j (T t )
2
{
](
})
( 1) 1 exp v * (T t )
v (t )
*
*
*
2 v v + r v 1 exp v (T t )
v =
( v (1 + ) v )2 v2 (1 + )
v* =
( v v )2 v2 ( 1)
})
4.21
68
2
V j (t ) = 2j + e j 1(1 + j )
Modelul SICIR-J
0.1
0.05
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.05
40
0.5
-0.1
0.6
-0.15
0.7
-0.2
-0.25
-0.3
69
0.1
0.05
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.05
40
-0.1
0.06
-0.15
0.07
0.08
-0.2
-0.25
-0.3
-0.35
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
-0.1
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.05
40
0
-0.05
0
0.05
-0.15
-0.2
-0.25
-0.3
70
5.11
5.03
4.95
4.87
4.79
4.71
4.63
4.55
4.47
4.39
4.31
4.23
4.15
5.11
5.03
4.95
4.87
0.05
4.79
4.71
4.63
4.55
4.47
4.39
4.31
4.23
4.15
-0.05
5.11
5.03
4.95
4.87
4.79
4.71
4.63
4.55
4.47
4.39
4.31
4.23
4.15
-0.1
-0.075
-0.05
-0.025
0
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
Skewness
-0.103097574
-0.075961187
-0.050011276
-0.025284077
-0.001608607
0.021391181
0.044089606
0.066665626
0.089110226
Kurtosis
2.457269204
2.12955309
1.488339847
0.896798015
0.878939615
1.075483564
1.480174359
1.888650327
2.250918973
71
-0.05
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
94
100
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
40
0
-0.05
-0.1
distr.
f.a.
total
-0.15
-0.2
-0.25
-0.3
a
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.05
40
-0.1
distr.
f.a.
total
-0.15
-0.2
-0.25
-0.3
b
0
0.1
0.05
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
40
0
-0.05
distr.
f.a.
total
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
c
Figura 4.5 Influena distribuiei i a factorului de actualizare
72
-0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
-0.1
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
40
0
-0.05
0
0.05
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
-0.05
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
100
-0.1
46
40
0
0.05
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
73
BS
-0.05
0.05
BS
-0.05
5.11
5.03
4.95
4.87
4.79
4.71
4.63
4.55
4.47
4.39
4.31
4.23
4.15
5.11
5.03
4.95
4.87
4.79
-0.5
4.71
4.63
4.55
4.47
4.39
4.31
4.23
4.15
0.5
0.05
BS
-0.05
5.11
5.03
4.95
4.87
4.79
4.71
4.63
4.55
4.47
4.39
4.31
4.23
4.15
-1
-0.75
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Skewness
-0.05
0.05
-0.17965 -0.12039
-0.14502 -0.08411
-0.11048 -0.04789
-0.07605 -0.01174
-0.04171 0.024353
-0.00749 0.060375
0.026632 0.096328
0.060635 0.132208
0.09452 0.168013
Kurtosis
-0.05
0.05
5.998702 6.166812
4.440305 4.594688
3.310592 3.37203
2.561286 2.718435
2.333261 3.25932
2.462843 2.471325
3.054647 3.168456
4.368033 4.258444
5.780852 6.02473
0.05
Acest lucru este confirmat de figura 4.6 care ne arat c n cazul n care att
corelaia ct i magnitudinea medie sunt negative efectele acestora se compun ducnd
o "aplecare" spre dreapta a distribuiei lui ln S T (skewness mare negativ). Acelai
lucru se ntmpl dar n cealalt direcie (skewness mare pozitiv) dac ambele sunt
pozitive.
74
Modelul SICIR-SVCIR-J
160
154
148
142
136
130
124
118
112
106
100
94
88
82
76
70
64
58
52
46
-0.1
40
distr.
-0.2
f.a.
-0.3
total
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
75
T t
u( c ) = E e U ( c(t ))dt
0
pentru un plan de consum
5.1
{ c(t ) : t [0, T ] } ,
un parametru de preferin n
W = (W X ,..., WX , WZ ,..., WZ )
1
5.2
76
5.3
5.4
dD(t ) i dW (t ) .
N
5.5
Fiecare firm n are emise aciuni care sunt cotate continuu i ai cror posesori
au dreptul la un flux de dividende {Dn (t ) : t 0}. Vom nota cu S n (t ) preul exdividend , la momentul t , al aciunii firmei n .
De asemenea n acesta economie mai exist un bond zero-cupon fr risc i
M produse financiare a cror ofert net este zero i care sunt cotate continuu astfel
77
max u( c )
a ,b ,c
cu restricia de buget:
N
n =1
m =1
5.6
5.7
1 c 2U ccc 2
c (t )
c (t )
2 Uc
cU cc
Q (t )
F (t ) + F (t ) R(t ) = U
1
dF (t ) dc(t )
Cov
,
F (t ) c(t )
dt
5.8
5.9
78
qU qq
1 1
FH 1 dH dq
dH FHH dH =
q
2 dt
U q dt
5.10
In plus avem c:
qU qq q (t ) 1 q 2U qqq
R (t ) = +
U q
2 Uq
q
5.11
U q ( q( v ))
S n ( t ) = E e (v t )
Dn ( v )dv | F (t )
U q ( q(t ))
t
5.12
cu 5.10 :
qU qq
1
(S n )L 1 dL dq
dL(S n )LL dL =
Uq
dt
q
2 dt
(S n )t + Dn RS n + (S n )L L + 1
cu condiia limit:
U q ( q(T ))
S n (T ) | F (t ) = 0
lim E e (T t )
T
U q ( q(t ))
5.13
79
5.14
dy (t ) = y ( y y (t ) )dt + y y (t )dW y (t )
5.15
5.16
In cadrul acestui model prima de risc pentru orice activ financiar F rezult
din ecuaia fundamental 5.9 i este dat de:
Q (t )
1
1
dF
dF
5.17
Ne ocupm pentu nceput de bondul zero-cupon fr risc cu maturitate .
Cum acesta genereaz un cash-flow, de mrime 1 u.m., doar la scaden rezult c
valoarea sa la momentul t este:
B(t , ) = e
q ( t + )
E
| F (t )
q(t )
5.18
B 1
2B
1 2 2B
x x 2 + [ x x ( x + x )x ] + y2 y 2
x 2
2
x
y
+ y y ( y + y )y
] By B RB = 0
5.19
80
B (t , ) = exp{ ( + q ) x ( ) y ( ) x ( ) x (t ) y ( ) y (t )}
unde:
x ( ) =
2 x x 1
( x x x ) + ln1 + (1 exp{ x })( x + x x )
2
2 x
x 2
y ( ) =
(1 exp{ y })( y + y y )
2 y y 1
(
)
+
+
ln
1
y
y
y
2 y
y 2 2
2 x (1 + ) q2, x (1 exp{ x })
2
x ( ) =
2 x + [ x + x x ](1 exp{ x })
2 y (1 + ) q2, y (1 exp{ y })
2
y ( ) =
2 y + y + y y (1 exp{ y })
x =
( x + x )2 + 2 x2 x 1 (1 + ) q2, x
y =
( y + y )2 + 2 y2 y 12 (1 + ) q2, y
5.20
dB(t , )
= {R(t ) x x ( ) x (t ) y y ( ) y (t )}dt x x ( ) x (t )dWx (t )
B(t , )
y y ( ) y (t )dW y (t )
5.21
R(t , ) =
ln[B(t , )]
= + q +
x ( ) + y ( ) x ( )
y ( )
+
x (t ) +
y (t )
5.22
5.23
81
q ( t + )
E
max{0, B (t + , ~ ) K } | F (t )
q(t )
5.24
e iK f j (t , , x, y; )
1 1
d , j = 1,2
j (t , , x, y ) = + Re
i
2 0
5.25
unde
~
K = ln (K ) + ( + q ) (~ ) + x (~ ) + y (~ )
x x x (1 + i ) x2 x (~ ) (1 exp{ x })
x x
f1 (t , , x, y; ) = exp 2 2 ln1
2 x
x
y y
y y y (1 + i ) y2 y (~ ) (1 exp{ y })
2 2 ln1
2 y
y
1
1
2
2 (1 + i ) x2 x2 (~ ) + (1 + i )( x + x ) x (~ ) x (1 + ) q2, x (1 exp{ x })
2
2
+
x (t )
2
~
2 x x x x (1 + i ) x x ( ) (1 exp{ x })
1
1
2 (1 + i )2 y2 y2 (~ ) + (1 + i )( y + y ) y (~ ) y (1 + ) q2, y (1 exp{ y })
2
2
+
y (t )
2
~
2 y y y y (1 + i ) y y ( ) (1 exp{ y })
( + q ) ~ x (~ ) x (~ ) ln[B (t , ~ )]
(1 + i )[ x x x (~ ) + x x x (~ )]
(1 + i ) x (~ ) x (t ) (1 + i ) y (~ ) y (t )
x x
x x x (1 + i ) x2 x (~ )
x2
y y
y2
y y (1 + i ) y2 y (~ )
82
)(
x * x x i x2 x (~ ) 1 exp x *
x x
f 2 (t , , x, y; ) = exp 2 2 ln 1
2 x *
x
y y
y * y y i 2y y (~ ) 1 exp y *
2 2 ln 1
*
y
2
)(
})
})
})
})
1
1
2
*
2 (i ) x2 x2 (~ ) + i ( x + x ) x (~ ) x (1 + ) q2, x 1 exp x
2
2
+
x (t )
*
*
*
2
~
2 x x x x i x x ( ) 1 exp x
](
})
1
1
2
*
2 (i ) y2 y2 (~ ) + i ( y + y ) y (~ ) y (1 + ) q2, y 1 exp y
2
2
+
y (t )
*
*
*
2
~
2 y y y y i y y ( ) 1 exp y
](
})
( + q ) ln[B (t , )]
i [ x x x (~ ) + x x x (~ )]
i x (~ ) x (t ) i y (~ ) y (t )
y y
x x *
x x x i x2 x (~ )
2
x
y2
*
y
y y i y2 y (~ )
2
~
x = ( x + x ) + (1 + i ) x x ( )
1
2 x2
(1 + i )
x2 x2 (~
12
) + (1 + i )( x + x ) x (~ ) x (1 + ) q2, x
2
2
~
y = ( y + y ) + (1 + i ) y y ( )
2 1
y
(1 + i )
2
2 2 ~
y y (
12
) + (1 + i )( y + y ) y (~ ) y (1 + ) q2, y
2
83
2
~
= ( x + x ) + i x x ( )
1
2 x2
(i )
x2 x2 (~
12
) + i ( x + x ) x (~ ) x (1 + ) q2, x
2
2
~
= ( y + y ) + i y y ( )
2 1
y
(i )
2
2 2 ~
y y (
12
) + i ( y + y ) y (~ ) y (1 + ) q2, y
2
5.26
y = q , y = 0) :
(1 + ) 2 x(t )
R (t ) = + q + x
q, x
2
5.27
Considerm acum una din cele N firme din economie. Variabila de stare a
acestei firme z presupunem c urmeaz, de asemenea, un proces CIR:
dz (t ) = z ( z z (t ) )dt + z z (t )dWz (t )
5.28
(v t ) q ( v )
S (t ) = E e
D ( v, x, z )dv | F (t )
t
q( t )
5.29
+ [ z z z z ]
S
+ D RS = 0
z
cu condiia limit:
(T t ) q(T )
lim E e
S (T , x, z ) | F (t ) = 0
T
q(t )
5.30
84
D(t ) = g (t ) exp{x x (t ) + z z (t )}
g (t ) = + x x (t ) + y z (t )
5.31
cu 0 .
Rezolvnd ecuaia 5.30 se obine c:
S (t ) = A exp{x x (t ) + z z (t )}
5.32
cu restriciile:
A=
+ q x x x z z z
+ q x x x z z z > 0
1
1
x (1 + ) q2, x + ( x + x )x x2 x2
2
2
=0
x
+ q x x x z z z
1
z z z2 z
2
=0
z
+ q x x x z z z
5.33
Aplicnd lema lui Ito pentru funcia din relaia 5.32 se obine c ecuaia de
dinamic a cursului activului este:
dS (t )
= S (t )dt + 1 x (t )dWx (t ) + 2 z (t )dWz (t )
S (t )
unde 1 = x x , 2 = z z i
1
1
S (t ) = x2 x2 x(t ) + x x ( x x(t ) ) + z2 z2 z (t ) + z z ( z z (t ) )
2
2
5.34
5.35
S (t ) =
=
D (t )
+ R(t ) + x q, x x x (t )
S (t )
x (t ) x x (t ) + R(t ) + x x x (t )
A A
A
5.36
85
1
dS
Var = 12 x (t ) + 2 2 z (t )
dt
S
5.37
Cov , dV = x3 x4 x (t ) + z3 z4 z (t )
dt
S
5.39
q ( t + )
E
max{0, S (t + ) K } | F (t )
q(t )
5.40
+ 2 z zS
2C 1 2 2C
C
+ x x 2 + [ x x ( x + x )x ]
Sz 2
x
x
1 2
2C
D C
2C
+ 1 x xS
1 x + 22 z S 2 2 + R S
2
S S
Sx
S
1
2C
C C
+ z2 z 2 + [ z z z z ]
RC = 0
2
z
z
5.41
j (t , , S , x, y ) =
e i ln K f j (t , , S , x, y; )
1 1
+ Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
5.42
86
x x
x x x + x x2 (1 exp{ x })
(t , , x, z ) = 2 2 ln1
2 x
x
x x
x x x + x x2
2
x
z z + z z2 (1 exp{ z })
2
ln
1
2 z
z z
z2
z z
z z + z z2 +
2
A
z
x
2(1 exp{ x })
x (t )
2
2 x x x x + x x (1 exp{ x }) A
2(1 exp{ z })
z
z (t )
2
2 z x z + z z (1 exp{ z }) A
x =
+ x x x2
z =
z z2
f1 (t , , S , x, y; ) = exp x 2 x
x
+ 2 x2 x A1
+ 2 z2 z A1
x x x + (1 + i ) x 1 (1 exp{ x })
2 ln1
2 x
x x
x x x + (1 + i ) x 1
x2
z z
z2
z z
z z + (1 + i ) z 2
z2
z z + (1 + i ) z 2 (1 exp{ z })
2 ln1
2 z
+ i ( + q )
(1 + i )
A
+ (t , , x, z ) + i ln[S (t )]
87
2 i x (1 + ) q2, x (1 + i ) x A1 i 12 (1 exp{ x })
2
2
+
x (t )
2 x x x x + (1 + i ) x 1 (1 exp{ x })
2(1 + i ) i 22 z A1 (1 exp{ z })
+
z (t )
2 z z z + (1 + i ) z 2 (1 exp{ z })
)(
})
x * x x + i x 1 1 exp x *
x x
f 2 (t , , S , x, y; ) = exp 2 2 ln 1
2 x *
x
x x *
x x x + i x 1
x2
)(
z z
z * z + i z 2 1 exp z *
2 2 ln1
z
2 z*
})
z z *
z z + i z 2
z2
+ (i 1)( + q )
ln[B (t , )] + i ln[S (t )]
( {
[
]( { })
2i (i 1) A (1 exp{ })
+
z (t )
2 [ + i ](1 exp{ })
})
1
1
*
2 (i 1) x (1 + ) q2, x i x A1 (i 1) 12 1 exp x
2
2
+
x (t )
*
*
*
2 x x x x + i x 1 1 exp x
2
2
x = ( x + x ) (1 + i ) x 1
2 x2 i x
12
1
1
(1 + ) q2, x (1 + i ) x A1 i 12
2
2
88
z = z (1 + i ) z 2 2 z2 (1 + i ) i 22 z A1
2
= ( x + x ) i x 1
12
(i 1) x 1 (1 + ) q2, x i x A1 1 (i 1) 12
2
2
2 x2
12
z*
= z + i z 2 2 z2i (i 1) 22 z A1
2
5.43
Se observ c dac lum dou tipuri extreme de opiuni, opiuni de tip A care
au drept suport actiuni sau indici numai cu risc sistemic (cu z = 0 ) i opiuni de tip B
care au suport aciuni fr risc sistemic (cu x = 0 ) formulele pentru cele dou tipuri
de opiuni sunt complet diferite. Preul opiunii de tip A va depinde numai de x , iar
preul opiunii de tip B va depinde doar de z . Dac un model cum ar fi BlackScholes-Merton ofer o singur formul de evaluare pentru ambele tipuri de opiuni
pot aprea erori mari de evaluare. Acest model poate da o explicaie faptului c
modelul Black-Scholes-Merton produce devieri de pre diferite pentru opiuni cu
structur a riscului diferit.
Indicatorii de senzitivitate de tip delta sunt:
S =
C
= e ( t , ) 1
S
x =
C
2
= S (t )e ( t , ) 1 + x 1 1
x ( ) 2
KB(t , )
x
x
x
x
z =
2
C
= S (t )e ( t , ) 1 + z 1 1
KB(t , )
z
z
z
z
5.44
~
In continuare ne ecupm de opiuni pe portofoliul pieei. Notnd cu S (t )
~
(v t ) q ( v )
S (t ) = E e
q( v )dv | F (t )
t
q(t )
5.45
89
})
~
~
S
2S
~
+ [ x x ( x + x )x ]
+ q , x x qx
+ q RS = 0
x
qx
5.46
5.47
unde
1
x (1 exp{ x v})
x x
s (t , v; x ) = x 2 x 2 ln1
2 x
x
x x
x2
1
x v
x x
x (t )
+
1
2 x x x
x (1 exp{ x v})
1
1
x + 2 x2 ( 1) x q2, x
x = x +
2
5.48
In general este greu a se rezolva analitic integrala de mai sus. Un caz pentru
care integrala este cunoscut este = 1 funcia utilitii fiind U ( c) = ln c . In aceast
situaie avem c h( x (t )) = .
Aplicnd, pentru cazul = 1 , lema lui Ito se obine c:
~
dS (t )
= ( q + x x (t ) )dt + q, x x (t )dWx (t )
~
S (t )
5.49
90
RC = 0
2
x
x
~
~
~
cu condiia la limit: C (t + ,0; S , x ) = max 0, S (t + ) K
5.50
e i ln K f j t , , S~, x;
1 1
~
j t , , S , x = + Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
5.51
unde
~
f1 t , , S , x; = exp x 2 x
x
( x x + i x )(1 exp{ x })
2 ln1
2 x
x x
( x x + i x )
x2
[ ]
~
+ i q + i ln S (t )
2i x + (i 1) q2, x (1 exp{ x })
+
x (t )
2 x [ x x + i x ](1 exp{ x })
~
f 2 t , , S , x; = exp x 2 x
x
)(
x * x + (i 1) x 1 exp x *
2
ln
1
2 x *
})
x x *
x x + (i 1) x
x2
[ ]
~
+ (i 1) q + i ln S (t ) ln[B(t , )]
(
](
{
{
})
})
+
(
)
x
t
2 x * x * x + (i 1) x 1 exp x *
91
x = x i x 2 x2i x + (i 1) q2, x
2
12
= x (i 1) x 2 x2 (i 1) x + (i 2 ) q2, x
2
5.52
dy (t ) = ( y y y (t ) )dt + y y (t )dW y (t )
5.53
Si n acest caz considerm, intr-una din cele dou ri (n ara in care dorim s
evalum opiunea), un agent reprezentativ cu utilitate logaritmic care are ca scop
maximizarea utilitii medii:
t
u ( c, c ) = E e
ln[c(t )] + (1 ) ln c * (t ) dt
]]
5.54
dM * (t )
= m * + 1* x (t ) + 2* y (t ) dt + 1* x (t )dWx (t ) + 2* y (t )dW y (t )
*
M (t )
5.55
92
1 M (t )
M * (t )
5.56
unde
5.57
5.58
M (t )
B(t , ) = e E
| F (t )
M (t + )
5.59
B (t , ) = exp{ ( + m ) x ( ) y ( ) x ( ) x (t ) y ( ) y (t )}
unde:
x ( ) =
2 x 1
( x x x ) + ln1 + (1 exp{ x })( x + x x )
2
2 x
x 2
y ( ) =
(1 exp{ y })( y + y y )
2 y 1
(
)
+
+
ln
1
y
y
y
y 2 2
y
x ( ) =
y ( ) =
2 1 12 (1 exp{ x })
2 x + [ x + x x ](1 exp{ x })
2 2 22 (1 exp{ y })
2 y + y + y y (1 exp{ y })
x = x 1 , y = y 2
x =
( x + x )2 + 2 x2 (1 12 )
y =
( y + y )2 + 2 2y (2 22 )
5.60
93
R(t , ) =
R (t , ) =
*
ln B * (t , )
= + m +
]= +
x ( ) + y ( ) x ( )
y ( )
+
x (t ) +
y (t )
x * ( ) + y * ( ) x * ( )
y * ( )
+
+
x (t ) +
y (t ) 5.61
*
m
5.62
F (t ) R ( t ) =
dF (t ) dM (t )
1
,
Cov
dt
F (t ) M (t )
5.63
M (t )
C (t , ) = e E
max(0, S (t + ) K ) | F (t )
M (t + )
5.64
1 2
2C
C 1 2 2 C
s , x x + s2, y y S 2 2 + R R * S
+ xx 2
2
S 2
S
x
C 1 2 2C
C
+ [ x ( x + x )x ]
+ y y 2 + y ( y + y )y
x 2
y
y
+ s , x x xS
2 C C
2C
RC = 0
s , y y yS
Sy
Sx
5.65
j (t , , S , x, y ) =
e i ln K f j (t , , S , x, y; )
1 1
+ Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
5.66
unde
94
x x x + (1 + i ) x s , x ) (1 exp{ x })
2 ln1
x
x x x + (1 + i ) x s , x
x2
y y (1 + i ) y s , y (1 exp{ y })
1 y
2
ln
2 y
2y
y
y2
y y (1 + i ) y s , y
( + m ) + (1 + i ) m m *
ln B * (t , ) + i ln[S (t )]
x (t )
+
2 x x x x + (1 + i ) x s , x (1 exp{ x })
y (t )
+
2 y y y y (1 + i ) y s , y (1 exp{ y })
f 2 (t , , S , x, y; ) = exp x2
x
)(
})
)(
})
* x x + i x s , x ) 1 exp x *
2 ln1 x
*
2 x
x
x * x x + i x s , x
2
x
y * y y i y s , y 1 exp y *
2 2 ln 1
y
2 y *
2
y
*
y
y y i y s , y
( + m ) + i m m *
ln[B (t , )] + i ln[S (t )]
})
1
1
x (t )
+
*
*
*
2 x x x x + i x s , x 1 exp x
](
})
95
(
})
})
1
1
2
2
y
t
+
(
)
*
*
*
2 y y y y i y s , y 1 exp y
](
x = ( x + x ) (1 + i ) x s , x
12
(1 + i )1 12 1* + 1*2 + 1 s2, x i 1 + 12
2
2 x2
y = ( y + y ) + (1 + i ) y s , y
12
2 (1 + i ) 2 22 2 * + 2*2 + s2, y i 2 + 22
2
2
y
= ( x + x ) i x s , x
2 x2 i 1
12
12
1*
+ 1*2
1
1
s2, x 1 + 12 + (i )2 s2, x
2
2
= ( y + y ) + i y s , y
2
y i 2
12
22
2 + 2*2
1
1
s2, y 2 + 22 + (i )2 s2, y
2
2
5.67
S =
C
= B * (t , ) 1
S
x =
= S (t ) B * (t , ) 1 x * ( ) 1 KB(t , ) 2 x ( ) 2
x
x
y =
C
= S (t ) B * (t , ) 1 y * ( )1 KB(t , ) 2 y ( ) 2
y
y
5.68
96
1 2
2
1 2 2
s , x x + s2, y y S 2 2 + R R * S
+ xx 2
2
S 2
S
x
+ [ x ( x + x )x ]
+ s , x x xS
1 2 2
+ y y 2 + y ( y + y )y
x 2
y
y
2
2
=0
s , y y yS
Sy
Sx
5.69
{ (
m + x ( ) + y ( ) + x ( ) x (t ) + y ( ) y (t )
unde:
(1 exp{ x }) x + x x s, x x
2 x 1
1 +
ln
+
+
,
x
x
x
x
s
x
2 x
x 2 2
(1 exp{ y }) y + y + y s, y y
2 1
y ( ) = y2 y y y y s , y + ln1 +
2 y
y 2
2 1 12 1* + 1*2 (1 exp{ x })
x ( ) =
2 x + x + x x s , x x (1 exp{ x })
x ( ) =
y ( ) =
2 2 22 2* + 2*2 (1 exp{ y })
2 y + y + y + y s , y y (1 exp{ y })
x =
+ x x s , x
y =
+ y + y s , y
2 x2 1 12 1* + 1*2
2 y2 2 22 2* + 2*2
5.70
97
5.71
unde W
: R n R n n .
Spunem c modelul este afin (liniar) dac:
( x ) = N 0 + N 1 x, N = (N 0 , N 1 ) R n R nn
H = (H 0 , H 1 ) R nn R nnn
R ( x ) = 0 + 1 x , = ( 0 , 1 ) R R n
5.72
5.73
(a, x (t ), t , T )
2
Im ( a + ibv, x (t ), t , T )e ivy
dv
v
0
1
5.74
(u, x, t , T ) = e (t ) + (t ) x
5.75
(t ) = 1 N 1 (t ) 2 (t ) H 1 (t )
(t ) = 0 N 0 (t ) 1 (t ) H 0 (t )
5.76
cu condiiile limit (T ) = u, (T ) = 0
98
Tot aceeai autori arat c preul unei opiuni europene cu scaden T i pre
de exerciiu K este:
C (t , T ) = Gc , c ( ln[K ] , x (t ), t , T ) K G0, c ( ln[K ] , x (t ), t , T )
5.77
unde c = (1,0,...,0 ) R n .
Sistemul 5.76 dac nu poate fi rezolvat analitic se pot folosi metode numerice
de evaluare a soluiei.
Se observ c formula din 5.77 pentru valoarea opiunii nu are aceeai form
cu formula Black-Scholes-Merton.
Pentru a ajunge la o formul de evaluare a opiunii, care s semene cu formula
Black-Scholes-Merton, Bakshi i Madan (2000) au o abordare puin diferit.
Ei consider funcia:
T
i x (T )
1
| Ft
f (t , T , x; ) = E exp R ( x ( s ))ds e
5.78
Avem c:
S (t ) = f (t , T , x;i )
B(t , T ) = f (t , T , x;0)
5.79
Bakshi i Madan (2000) arat c dac se tie funcia f , deci nu numai n cazul
modelelor afine, preul unei opiuni europene cu scaden T i pre de exerciiu K
este:
C (t , T ) = S (t ) 1 (t , T , x ) K B(t , T ) 2 (t , T , x )
j (t , T , x ) =
e i ln K f j (t , T , x; )
1 1
+ Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
5.80
unde
f 1 ( t , T , x; ) =
f 2 ( t , T , x; ) =
1
f ( t , T , x; i )
S (t )
1
f ( t , T , x; )
B(t.T )
5.81
Ins dac modelul este afin folosind 5.73, 5.75 i 5.78 avem c:
(t ) + ( t ) x
f (t , T ; ) = e
5.82
(T ) = (i ,0,...,0), (T ) = 0
5.83
99
In concluzie modelele afine permit luarea n calcul a mai multor factori care
influeneaz preul unei opiuni, rezultnd n acelai timp o formul de evaluare a
opiunii care seamn cu formula Black-Scholes-Merton i care se obine prin
transformarea Fourier invers a dou funcii. Funciile acestea depind de soluia unui
sistem de ecuaii difereniale de tip Riccati (sistemul 5.76 cu condiiile limit 5.83), i
chiar dac aceasta nu poate fi gsit analitic se pot folosi metode numerice de
aproximare a sa, metode mult mai rapide i mai exacte dect cele folosite pentru
estimarea soluiei prin intermediul ecuaiei de evaluare.
Modelele afine pot fi extinse s ia n considerare i salturi (Duffie, Pan i
Singleton (2000)) rezultnd aa numitele "affine jump-diffusion models". Rezultatele
obinute rmn n general adevrate i pentru acest tip de modele singura modificare
intervenind n sistemul 5.76.
De asemenea au fost introduse i metode de estimare a parametrilor unui
model afin. Singleton (2001) folosete pentru estimare funcia caracteristic empiric
care se obine tot prin rezolvarea unui sistem de ecuaii difereniale asemntor cu
5.76.
100
Bibliografie
Bakshi, G., i Z. Chen (1997a). "An Alternative Valuation Model for Contingent
Claims", Journal of Financial Economics, 44, 123165.
Bakshi, G., i Z. Chen (1997b). " Equilibrium Valuation of Foreign Exchange
Claims", Journal of Finance, 52, 799-826
Bakshi, G., C. Cao, i Z. Chen (1997), Empirical Performance of Alternative Option
Pricing Models, Journal of Finance, 52, 2003-2049
Ball, C., i A. Roma (1994), "Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing", Journal of
Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 29(4), 589-607.
Hull, J., (2006), Options, Futures, and other Derivatives, Prentice Hall.
Hull, J. i A. White (1987), The Pricing of Options with Stochastic Volatilities,
Journal of Finance, 42, 281-300.
Ito, K. i H.P. McKean, (1965), Diffusion processes and their sample paths, SpringerVerlag , Berlin
Karatzas, I. i S. E. Shreve, (1991), Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus,
Springer-Verlag, New York
102
Merton, R. C., (1976), "Option Pricing When Underlying Stock Returns Are
Discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics 3, 125-145.
Merton, R.C., (1973), Theory of Rational Option Pricing, Bell Journal of
Economics and Management Science, 4, 141-183.
Merton, R.C., (1976), "Option Pricing When Underlying Stock Returns Are
Discontinuous", Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 125-144.
Musiela, M., i M. Rutkowski, (1997), Martingale Methods in Financial Modelling,
Springer Verlag.
Oksendal, B., (2000), Stochastic Differential Equations (5th Edition), Springer
Verlag.
Protter, P., (1992), Stochastic Integration and Differential Equations, Springer
Verlag.
Revuz, D. i M. Yor, (1991), Continuous martingales and brownian motion, SpringerVerlag, Berlin
Schobel, R. i J.Zhu (1998), "Stochastic Volatility with an Ornstein-Uhlenbech
Process: An Extention", working paper, Eberhard-Karls-Universitat Tubingen
Scott, L.O. (1987): Option Pricing When the Variance Changes Randomly: Theory,
Estimation, and an Application, Journal of Financial and Quantitative
Analysis, 22, 419-438.
Scott, L.O. (1997), "Pricing Stock Options in a Jump-diffusion Model with Stochastic
Volatility and Interest Rates: Application of Fourier Inversion Methods",
Mathematical Finance 7, 345-358.
103
Shreve, S. (1997), Stochastic Calculus and Finance, lecture notes, Carnegie Mellon
University
Singleton, K.J. (2001), "Estimation of Affine Asset Pricing Models Using the
Empirical Characteristic Function", working paper, Stanford University,
forthcoming, Journal of Econometrics.
Stein, E i J. Stein (1991), Stock Price Distributions with Stochastic Volatility: an
Analytic Approach, Review of Financial Studies, 4, 4, 727-752.
Stoica, G., (1999), Introducere n studiul micrii browniene, Editura Universitii
Bucureti
Vasicek, O. (1977), "An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure", Journal
of Financial Economics 5, 177-188.
104
Anexe
(t , x ) = ( i , j (t , x )) : [0, ) R d R d R r ,
1 i d ,1 j r
stocastic:
X (0) = x R d dat
r
dX i (t ) = bi (t , X (t ))dt + i ,k (t , X (t ))dB k (t ) , 1 i d
A.1.1
k =1
f 1 d
2 f
df (t , X (t )) =
+
ci , j
t 2 i
xi x j
, j =1
dt + f dX i
i =1 xi
A.1.2
unde c = .
Teorem:(Feynman-Kac).
Fie X = (X i )i =1.. d ,
f0
funcie
(borelian)
f
+ Lf = 0
t
f (T , y ) = f 0 ( y )
A.1.3
unde
Lf =
i c = .
d
1 d
2 f
f
c
+
bi
i, j
2 i , j =1
xi x j i =1
xi
A.1.4
105
C (t ) =
=
=
E exp r(u)du (S
T
E exp r(u)du S
T
X ,0) F
t
X ) 1{S
T >X
} Ft
F
X
}
T >X
t
1{S
A.2.1
E exp r(u)du 1{
T
F
}
ST > X
t
A.2.2
E * 1{
ST > X
} Ft X B (t , T )
E * * 1{
= S t 1 (t ) X B(t , T ) 2 (t )
ST > X
} Ft
A.2.3
C
+ LC r C = 0
t
A.2.4
C ~
+ L C r C = 0
t
A.2.5
106
~
unde operatorul diferenial L este afin (coeficienii si sunt polinoame de
grad 1).
Inlocuind n aceast ecuaie relaia A.2.3 se obin ecuaii cu derivate pariale
pentru 1 (t ), 2 (t ) :
1
+ L1 1 = 0
t
1 (T ) = 1{S > X }
T
2
+ L2 2 = 0
t
2 (T ) = 1{S > X }
A.2.6
f1
+ L1 f1 = 0
t
f (T ; ) = e iL
1
f 2
+ L2 f 2 = 0
t
f (T ; ) = e iL
2
A.2.7
In general ecuaiile A.2.7 sunt mai uor de rezolvat dect ecuaiile A.2.6.
Aflarea propriu zis a funciilor de probabilitate 1 (t ), 2 (t ) se face folosind
transformarea Fourier invers (Anexa 3):
e i ln X f j (t , )
1 1
j (t ) = + Re
d , j = 1,2
2 0
i
A.2.8
107
F (x ) =
g ( y )dy
A.3.1
f ( ) =
e g (x )dx = e dF (x )
ix
i x
A.3.2
Se poate arta c:
g (x ) =
1
2
ix
f ( ) d
A.3.3
F ( x ) F ( y ) = g ( z )dz =
1
=
2
1
2
iz
e f ( ) ddz =
1
2
iz
f ( )dzd
e iy e ix
f ( ) d
i
A.3.4
e i x f ( )
1 1
Re
d
2 0
i
A.3.5
E * 1{
2 (t ) =
E * * 1{
ln ST >ln X
} Ft
ln ST > ln X
= P* {ln ST > ln X }| Ft = 1 F
} Ft
(ln X )
= P* * {ln ST > ln X }| Ft = 1 F
**
(ln X )
108
~
Incepem cu cazul activului suport. Acesta, fa de msura pieei ( P ), are o
ecuaie de dinamic de forma:
~
dS (t ) = S S (t ) dt + S (t ) dW (t )
A.4.1
~
= (t )( S r S ) S (t ) dt + S (t ) S dt + dW (t )
dW
Dar (t )S (t ) martingal S r S = 0 S =
S r
A.4.2
A.4.3
~
dr (t ) = ~( r (t )) dt + ( r (t )) dW (t )
A.4.4
A.4.5
109
~
= (t )( B r r ) B (t ) dt + B B (t ) r dt + dW (t )
dW
Dar (t )B (t ) martingal B r r B = 0 r =
B r
B
A.4.6
A.4.7
~
dr (t ) = ~( r (t )) dt + ( r (t )) dW (t )
= ~( r (t )) dt + ( r (t )) (dW (t ) r dt )
= [~( r (t )) r ( r (t ))] dt + ( r (t )) dW (t )
(r ( t ) )
= ( r (t )) dt + ( r (t )) dW (t )
A.4.8
~
dv(t ) = ~(v (t )) dt + ( v (t )) dW (t )
A.4.9
= ~( v (t )) dt + ( v (t )) (dW (t ) v dt )
= [~( v (t )) v ( v (t ))] dt + ( v(t )) dW (t )
(v ( t ) )
= ( v (t )) dt + ( v (t )) dW (t )
A.4.10
110
la risc.
T-preul forward al unei aciuni(activ) la momentul t notat cu F (t ) este preul
E (1T ) (S (T ) F (t )) | Ft = 0 , 0 t T
A.5.1
Rezult c:
F (t ) =
S (t )
B (t , T )
A.5.2
proprietile:
i)
(T)= S(T)
ii)
T 1
E d(u) | F(t) = 0
t (u )
, 0 t T
A.5.3
E S (T ) | Ft
A.5.4
(0) F (0) =
E [S (T )]
1
(T )
S (0)
1
(T )
E (1T ) E [S (T )] E S ((TT ))
111
1
Cov S (T ),
(T )
1
(T )
1
Cov S (T ),
=0
(T )
A.5.5
(t ) = F (t ) = S (t )e r (T t )
A.5.6
dr (t ) = ( r (t )) dt + ( r (t )) dW2 (t )
Avem c:
1
1
dF (t ) = S (t )d
dS (t )
+
B(t , T ) B(t , T )
= B2 F (t )dt + F (t )dW1 (t ) B F (t )dW2 (t )
A.5.7
+ L dt + S (t )
d (t ) =
dW1 (t ) + (r (t ))
dW2 (t )
S
r
t
unde
LC =
1 2 2 2C 1 2 2C
C
C
+ (r ) 2 + rS
+ (r )
S
2
2
2
S
r
S
r
+ L = 0
t
Deci:
d (t ) = S (t )
dW1 (t ) + (r (t ))
dW2 (t )
S
r
1
1
= S (t )
(t )dW2 (t )
(t )dW1 (t ) + (r (t ))
S
S
A.5.8
112
113
BS =
D
T t
A.6.1
1 k f
(0)
i k k
A.6.2
1 = 0
2 = m2 m12
3 = m3 3m2 m1 + 2m13
A.6.3
114
3
2
K=
4
3
22
A.6.4
Dac rata dobnzii este stocastic factorul de actualizare din modelul BlackScholes-Merton ( e r (T t ) ) este diferit de factorul de actualizare din modelul considerat
( B (t , T ) ).
Putem descompune diferena de pre n funcie de dou influene: influena
distribuiei i influena factorului de actualizare. Ne intereseaz variaia diferenei de
pre funcie de preul de exerciiu (X) celelalte elemente fiind constante. Avem c:
Dif ( X ) = C ( X ) C BS ( X )
= {S 1 ( X ) XB(t , T ) 2 ( X )} {S1BS ( X ) Xe r (T t ) 2BS ( X )}
= {S (1 1BS )( X ) Xe r ( T t ) ( 2 2BS )( X )}+ {X (e r ( T t ) B(t , T ) ) 2 ( X )}
influenta distributiei
115