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Fie urmatoarele date referitoare la dinamica veniturilor (X 1t), dinamica preturilor (X2t) si
evolutia cererii (Yt) pe piata unui produs: Ziua nasterii: Z=17, Luna nasterii: L=10
t
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
X2t
2.3
4.5
2.5
1.9
2.8
5.7
2.8
3.7
1.5
4.5
4.2
4.2
2.3
3.9
4.5
2.8
1
1.9
3
2.9
4
4.7
1.6
4.9
1.3
Yt
2
0.5
1.5
3
1
0
2.1
1.8
3
0.7
0.5
1
1.4
1.2
0.8
2.3
3.5
3.8
1.8
2.6
0.8
1.2
4.2
0.8
2.5
a) Yt=a0+a1X1t+a2X2t+e1, folosind notatia sub forma de matrice, vom deduce urmatoarea estimare:
(x'*x)-1
0.2933 -0.0797
-0.0797 0.0251
x'*x
25
79.4
79.4
292
4.1384
-0.7489
x'*y
44
109.92
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regressio
n
Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted
R Square
Standard
Error
Observati
ons
0.8617
0.7425
0.7313
0.5803
25
ANOVA
df
Regressio
n
Residual
Total
MS
F
22.334
1 22.3342
2 66.3175
23
7.7458 0.3368
24
30.08
Coefficie
nts
SS
Standar
d Error
Intercept
4.1384
t Stat
13.168
0.3143
0
X Variable
1
-0.7489
0.0920 8.1436
P-value
Significa
nce F
0.0000
Lower
95%
0.0000
3.4883
0.0000
-0.9391
Upper Lower
95%
95.0%
4.788
5 3.4883
0.558
6 0.9391
Upper
95.0%
4.7885
-0.5586
R2 =
=1-
= 0.7424
= 0.7312
U
2.4160
0.7685
-0.4160
-0.2685
0.1731
0.0721
2.2662
2.7156
2.0416
-0.1301
2.0416
1.3676
3.0151
0.7685
0.9932
0.9932
2.4160
1.2178
0.7685
2.0416
3.3895
2.7156
1.8918
1.9667
1.1429
0.6187
2.9402
0.4690
3.1649
-0.7662
0.2844
-1.0416
0.1301
0.0584
0.4324
-0.0151
-0.0685
-0.4932
0.0068
-1.0160
-0.0178
0.0315
0.2584
0.1105
1.0844
-0.0918
0.6333
-0.3429
0.5813
1.2598
0.3310
-0.6649
U= 7.7458
Su2 = 0.3368
Var ()
0.0988
-0.0269
-0.0269
0.0085
= 0.3143
SU(1) =
= 0.0920
0.5871
0.0809
1.0849
0.0169
0.0034
0.1870
0.0002
0.0047
0.2432
0.0000
1.0323
0.0003
0.0010
0.0668
0.0122
1.1760
0.0084
0.4011
0.1176
0.3379
1.5871
0.1096
0.4421
t 0 =
= 13.168
t 1 =
= -8.1436
) = 14.3815
(Ut-Ut-1 )2
0.0218
0.2477
1.1039
1.7583
1.3729
0.0051
0.1399
0.2003
0.0029
0.1803
0.2500
1.0462
0.9964
0.0024
0.0515
0.0219
0.9486
1.3836
0.5258
0.9531
0.8542
0.4604
0.8626
0.9918
dW =
= 1.8567
Coeficientul Durbin Watson stabileste daca varianta reziduala a unei variabile ntr-un
model de regresie este constant (homoscedasticitate). Pentru atesta constanta unei variatii s-au
introdus intr-o regresie patratele reziduurilor de la un model de regresie, regresori si regresorii la
patrat.Astfel, impartind totalul (Ut-Ut-1)2 la totalul U2 a rezultat Coeficientul Durbin Watson
DW = 1.8567
Pentru n = 25, avem dL = 1.206 i dU = 1.55.
Valoarea obinut 1.8567 se afl n intervalul 1,55 i 2,45 ceea ce nseamn c se accept
lipsa autocorelrii.
CONCLUZIE:
Din analiza modelelor observam faptul ca acestea nu trec toate necesitatile, fiind astfel
nevoie de diferite ajustari.Variatia cererii este determinata de variatia nivelului preurilor. Asadar,
variabila independenta, dupa cum ne arata si testele si modelele depinde doar de factorul
analizat: dinamica preului.
f) TESTAI HETEROSCEDASTICITATEA
Pentru testarea heteroscedasticitii voi folosi testul Goldfeld-Quandt
Ordonate dupa X2
t
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
X2t
1
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.9
1.9
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
3
3.7
3.9
4
4.2
4.2
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.7
Yt
3.5
2.5
3
4.2
3
3.8
2
1.4
1.5
1
2.1
2.3
2.6
1.8
1.8
1.2
0.8
0.5
1
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.2
0.8
0
U
0.1105
-0.6649
-0.0151
1.2598
0.2844
1.0844
-0.416
-1.016
-0.7662
-1.0416
0.0584
0.2584
0.6333
-0.0918
0.4324
-0.0178
-0.3429
-0.4932
0.0068
-0.2685
-0.0685
0.0315
0.5813
0.331
0.1301
0.0122
0.4421
0.0002
1.5871
0.0809
1.176
0.1731
1.0323
0.5871
1.0849
0.0034
0.0668
0.4011
0.0084
0.187
0.0003
0.1176
0.2432
0
0.0721
0.0047
0.001
0.3379
0.1096
0.0169
1. SU (n1) =
= 6.2461 / 10 = 0.62461
2. SU (n2) =
= 1.0987 / 10 = 0.10987
Fcalc =
= 5.684
g) PROGNOZA
Xf
2.7
f = 0 + 2Xf2
Yf = 1.5021
f - t**23, df * Sf f f + t**23, df * Sf
Sf = SU ( 1 + Xf * ( X*X) -1 * Xf)
Sf = 0.6900
df
t23, df
t23, df * Sf
0.1
1.717
1.1846
0.5
2.074
1.4310
0.01
2.819
1.9450
f - t**23, df *
Sf
0.3174
0.0711
-0.4429
1.5021
1.5021
1.5021
2.6867
2.9330
3.4470
f + t**23, df *
Sf
CONCLUZIE:
Din analiza modelelor observam faptul ca acestea nu trec toate necesitatile, fiind astfel
nevoie de diferite ajustari.Variatia cererii este determinata de variatia nivelului preurilor. Asadar,
variabila independenta, dupa cum ne arata si testele si modelele depinde doar de factorul
analizat: dinamica preului.