4.

Simularea Monte Carlo

Simularea Monte Carlo lrgete considerabil abordarea prin intermediul diferitelor scenarii de evoluie a factorilor determinani,
evoluie evideniat n cadrul analizei sensitivitii.
Input Values (input)

Pre unitar (P)

Cost variabil unitar (V)
Numr uniti vndute
(Nr)
Amortizare (Amo)
rata de actualizare

Results

Nominal

Min

Max

Stochastic

20

18

22

18,48931083

11,50

10,50

13,00

10,72

711.040

568.832

853.248

736.798

28.000.000,00
20,34%

28.000.000,00
18,00%

22,00%

19,05%

(calculations)

Deterministic

Stochastic

Pfnnet

-13.173.696,00

-13.363.644,03

Cf flow

14.826.304,00

14.636.355,97

Summary
Statistics
Sample Size (n):
MEAN:
STDEV:
Mean Standard Error:

50000
7.827.707,53
827.986,90
11.709,50

Quartiles
Min:
Q(0.25):
Median:
Q(0.75):
Max:

5.886.340,63
7.198.182,24
7.784.017,73
8.399.825,27
10.569.625,64

90% Central Interval

Q(0.05):
Q(0.95):

6.542.613,86
9.285.542,29

95% Central Interval

Q(0.025):
Q(0.975):

6.360.393,55
9.585.438,88

Prob(Profit > 0)
Pr(y > 0):

#N/A

Histogram of Monte Carlo Simulation Results

350

0.8
0.7
0.6

200

0.5
150

0.4
0.3

100

0.2

50

0.1
180000

174000

168000

162000

156000

150000

144000

138000

132000

Bins

126000

120000

114000

108000

96000

102000

90000

84000

78000

72000

0
66000

0
60000

Count

250

Cumulative Probability

0.9

300