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Yt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
t
233
263
288
319
363
433
467
503
544
577
639
687
Yt
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
t
733
758
809
865
934
1006
1029
1052
1068
1125
1170
1222
Yt
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
1281
1333
1358
1372
1389
1354
1341
1370
1340
1379
1397
suma
1164
Yt
1
medi
a
34,23
529
Yt-1
delta
Yt
233 -
263
233
30
288
263
25
319
288
31
363
319
44
433
363
70
467
433
34
503
467
36
544
503
41
10
577
544
33
11
639
577
62
12
687
639
48
13
733
687
46
14
758
733
25
15
809
758
51
16
865
809
56
17
934
865
69
18
1006
934
72
19
20
1029
1052
1006
1029
23
23
Xt
zt
4,2352
9
4,2352
9
9,2352
9
3,2352
9
9,7647
06
35,764
71
0,2352
9
1,7647
06
11,647
9,8674
4
y^
epsilon
t
233
263
293,69
3
-5,693
4,1458
87
38,125
5
21,474
51
311,27
09
13,992
94
14,732
7
510,23
69
476,41
83
6,7647
06
1,2352
9
27,764
71
7,1539
49
553,84
52
31,838
38
31,894
43
578,28
42
609,47
01
13,764
71
11,764
71
9,2352
9
16,764
71
29,926
35
7,8056
69
713,26
25
717,78
89
21,209
49
33,842
02
785,73
18
768,72
2
21,764
71
34,764
71
37,764
71
11,235
3
-
54,035
37
68,534
07
27,790
06
880,18
54
908,78
5
1011,6
58
4,5891
99
-
1068,5
87
1031,2
354,93
409,99
34
7,7290
94
8,0699
54
23,006
57
43,236
9
26,581
71
9,8452
3
1,2842
3
29,529
94
26,262
5
15,211
09
27,731
8
40,277
99
15,185
4
25,214
96
5,6583
39,587
4
20,700
21
1068
1052
16
22
1125
1068
57
23
1170
1125
45
24
1222
1170
52
25
1281
1222
59
26
1333
1281
52
27
1358
1333
25
28
1372
1358
14
29
1389
1372
17
30
1354
1389
-35
31
1341
1354
-13
32
1370
1341
29
33
1340
1370
-30
34
1379
1340
39
35
1397
1379
18
0,998216 r1 initial
0,430386 r1 xt
r1 zt =
0,836112 a1
11,235
3
18,235
3
22,764
71
15,622
1
99
13,869
03
18,662
15
1088,6
27
1075,2
42
10,764
71
17,764
71
28,391
49
40,931
67
1206,6
1192,3
95
24,764
71
17,764
71
9,2352
9
20,235
3
17,235
3
69,235
3
47,235
3
5,2352
9
64,235
3
41,072
43
14,152
58
12,176
4
24,168
9
82,997
8
94,496
7
59,044
6
1287,9
44
1331,9
86
4,7647
06
16,235
3
1382,6
65
1370,4
68
75
20,627
3
49,757
59
36,599
7
29,605
35
6,9444
9
1,0142
91
24,664
7
1408,1
48
1,5316
01
1,1874
9
54,147
5
1299,5
15
41,485
11
97,857
1359,3
62
10,637
68
50,958
45,252
3
1405,9
14
65,914
1282,9
96
25,768
1471,8
83
96,004
43
74,882
8
1390,1
87
o valoare
pentru b.
Obiem b1=-0.5694 si b2=-1.7562 , deci alegem cea mai mica valoare dupa modul
Depistam valoarea lui zt dup formula : Zt=Xt-b1*Zt-1 , apoi calculm
coeficientul de autocorelaie.
a1=r1*yt , i calculm valorile petru colonia yt prognozat :
Yt=(1-a1)* yt +(1+a1)*yt-1-a1*yt-2+b1*epsilon t-1,
Dupa ce am obinut aceste valori calculm valorile pentru y prognozat cu ajutorul
formulelor pentru calcul:
Yt+1 prognozat=5.61+1.8361*1397-0.8361*1379+0.5694*(-74.8828)= 1375.0215
Yt+2 prognozat=5.61+1.8361* Yt+1 prognozat-0.8361*1397+0.5694*0=1362.2553
Yt+3prognozat=5.61+1.8361* Yt+2 prognozat -0.8361* Yt+1 prognozat
+0.5694*0=1357.1915
Yt+4 prognozat= 5.61+1.8361* Yt+3prognozat -0.8361* Yt+2prognozat
+0.5694*0=1358.5676
yt+1prog
=
yt+2prog
=
yt+3prog
=
yt+4prog
=
1375.0215
1362.2553
1357.1915
1358.5676