Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Ionut Dumitru
Presedinte Consiliul Fiscal, Economist-sef Raiffeisen Bank, Profesor universitar ASE
Bucuresti, Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori*
Martie 2017
*Opiniile exprimate sunt opinii personale ale autorului si nu implica institutiile cu care este asociat.
PIB per capita in PPS
(% din media Germania si Franta)
65
60.3
60
59.6
55
51.5
50
43.9
45
41.8
41.3
39.5
40
35
29.8
30 27.5
25 23.6
25.4
20 21.8
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Bulgaria Poland Hungary Romania
Sursa: Eurostat
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Denmark
Euro area
France
Germany
Netherlands
Finland
EU28
Austria
Belgium
Medie crestere economica
Cyprus
Croatia
Spain
United…
Slovenia
Hungary
Sweden
Czech…
Malta
Luxembourg
Bulgaria
Poland
Abaterea standard a cresterii economice
Romania
Estonia
Latvia
Cresterea economica si volatilitatea ei (2000-2016)
Slovakia
Lithuania
Sursa: Eurostat
Ireland
Cresterea economica in perioada 2000-2018
10.0
8.4 8.5
8.1
8.0
6.9
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0 -7.1
7.0
6.0
5.2
5.0
4.8
5.0
4.0
3.4
3.2 3.3 3.3
2.8 2.8 2.9
3.0 2.5
2.3 2.4
2.0 2.0 2.1
1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9
2.0 1.6 1.6
1.4 1.5
1.1 1.2 1.2
0.9
1.0
0.0
0.0
Romania
France
Hungary
Euro area
United Kingdom
Latvia
Finland
Slovenia
Cyprus
Croatia
Lithuania
Portugal
Greece
Denmark
Ireland
European Union
Netherlands
Austria
Germany
Czech Republic
Poland
Spain
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Belgium
Estonia
Italy
Sweden
Malta
Crestere economica Cresterea consumului final
Sursa: Eurostat
Contributii la cresterea economica din Romania in
anul 2016
Sursa: Eurostat
Cresterea consumului - principalul motor al cresterii
economice…
15%
130
10%
120 Ex porturi 5%
Consum priva t
0%
110
PIB fa ra a gricultura -5 %
100 -1 0 %
Investitii brute -1 5 %
90 (publice si priva te)
11Q4 12Q4 13Q4 14Q4 15Q4 16Q4
PIB rea l (% a n la a n)
80 Consum priva t (% a n la a n)
13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 Form a rea bruta a ca pita lului fix (% a n la a n)
15 160
-1 0
150
10 -2 0
140
5 -3 0
130
-4 0
0 120
-5 0 110
-5
-6 0 100
-1 0
-7 0 90
Feb -0 7 Feb -0 9 Feb -1 1 Feb -1 3 Feb -1 5 Feb -1 7
-1 5
11Q1
11Q3
12Q1
12Q3
13Q1
13Q3
14Q1
14Q3
15Q1
15Q3
16Q1
16Q3
Aste pta rile priv ind ra ta som a jului in urm a toa re le 1 2 luni
Dec-0 6
Dec-0 8
Dec-1 0
Dec-1 2
Dec-1 4
Dec-1 6
Nota: Remunerarea angajatilor= (numar de angajati * salariu net) in companiile private cu cel putin 4 angajati si in sectorul public
Sursa: Institutul National de Statistica, Comisia Europeana, GfK
PIB per capita, % din media nationala
Highest
BT
SM MM 49.2
70.9
68.8 SV
57.8
SJ BN IS
78.3
BH 78.2 71.2 NT
79.5 CJ 57.2
126.9
MS HR
78.7 68.3 BC VS
AR 46.0
63.2
96.4
AB M edia n
97.4 SB CV
TM HD 103.6 BV 67.6 VN GL
127.8 80.2 119.1 60.1 71.6
BZ
CS PH 64.1 BR TL
70.8 GJ VL AG 129.6 70.7
70.2 88.5
DB 74.1
89.3 67.6
120.4
MH IF IL
54.9 B 68.4
OT 259.3 CL CT
DJ 59.9 GR 58.1 147.7
76.1 TR 64.7
54.8
Low est
Sursa: INSSE
Modificarea populatiei stabile in perioada 2002-2015 (in %)
Sursa: INSSE
Numarul de insolvente a revenit la nivelul precriza
Com pa nii intra te in insolvente
7
0
Dec-0 7
Dec-0 8
Dec-0 9
Dec-1 0
Dec-1 1
Dec-1 2
Dec-1 3
Dec-1 4
Dec-1 5
Dec-1 6
Com pa nii intra te in insolventa (% din com pa nii a ctive)
Nota: rata anualizata pe ultimele 12 luni; companiile active sunt cele cu cifra de afaceri mai mare de zero
Sursa: ONRC
Romania a avut de departe cea mai mare rata de
insolvente in Europa Centrala si de Est
Sursa: Coface
Consolidarea fiscala a fost reversata incepand cu 2016
-10 45
-9.5
42.3
-9
39.4 40.5
Deficit bugetar ESA2010, % din PIB 40
39.1
-8 38.0
37.3 37.8
Datorie publica ESA2010, % din PIB
-7
-6.9 35
34.2
-6
-5.5 -5.4
29.9 30
-5
-4.6
-4.4 -4.4
25.7
24.8 25
-3.9
-4
-3.5 -3.7 -3.6
-3.4 23.2
-3.2 22.4
21.6 21.3
-3 -2.8 -2.8
20
18.6 -2.1 -2.1
-2.0 -1.9
-2 16.7
-1.4 15.7
14.9 -1.1 15
-1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
13.2
12.3 12.7
0 10.6 10
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
Romania
Spain
Poland
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Hungary
Finland
Belgium
Croatia
Portugal
Slovenia
European Union
Denmark
2017
Euro area
Slovakia
2018
Austria
Greece
Latvia
Lithuania
Ireland
Malta
Bulgaria
Estonia
Sweden
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Deficitul bugetar in tarile UE (ESA 2010, % din PIB)
Netherlands
Sursa: Comisia Europeana
Germany
Veniturile colectate din taxe si impozite (% din PIB, 2017) in
tarile UE
52
47.7
46.7 46.1
47
44.0 43.6
43.1 42.6
41.4
42 40.8 40.2
40.1 39.8
37.8 37.6 37.5 37.4
37.0 36.9 36.5
37 35.6
34.9 34.8 34.5
34.3
33.4 33.3
31.9
32 31.2
30.0 29.9
27 25.4
24.5
22
Romania
France
United Kingdom
Finland
Euro area
Hungary
Norway
Croatia
Cyprus
Slovenia
Latvia
Greece
Denmark
Lithuania
European Union
Iceland
Portugal
Austria
Ireland
Germany
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Italy
Estonia
Sweden
Belgium
Spain
Sursa: Comisia Europeana
Veniturile colectate din taxe si impozite in Romania (%
din PIB)
32
31.2
31
30.7
30
29.6
29.1
28.9
29 28.8
27.0
27 26.9
26.4
26.1
26 25.9
25.4 25.4
25
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Evolutia ca stigului sa la ria l net Evolutia sa la riului nom ina l net luna r
(% a n la a n) (RO N )
30 2400
2100
25
1800
20
1 7 .7 1 5 0 0
15 1200
1 1 .9
900
10 9 .8
600
5
300
Dec-0 3
Dec-0 4
Dec-0 5
Dec-0 6
Dec-0 7
Dec-0 8
Dec-0 9
Dec-1 0
Dec-1 1
Dec-1 2
Dec-1 3
Dec-1 4
Dec-1 5
Dec-1 6
Dec-1 2 Dec-1 3 Dec-1 4 Dec-1 5 Dec-1 6
Sector public Sector priva t Tota l econom ie Sectorul priva t Sectorul public
Sursa: INSSE
Evolutia anvelopei salariale in sectorul public (% din PIB, ESA2010)
11.0
10.7
10.5
10.3
10.0
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.2
9.0
8.7 8.7
8.5
8.5 8.4
8.3
8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1
8.0 7.9
7.8 7.8
7.7 7.7
7.5
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f
130%
120%
Romania
Ungaria
110% Polonia
Slovacia
Bulgaria
100% Cehia
90%
80%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
115%
112% 112% 112%
110%
102% 103%
100%
70%
50%
Salariu sector Salariu educatie/total Salariu sanatate/total Salariu administratie
public/sector privat economie economie publica/total economie
Romania 2017
Luxembourg
Salariul minim a crescut foarte rapid
Greece
Lithuania
Portugal
Sursa: Eurostat, OECD
France
Slovenia
Evolutie slaba a investitiilor, in special a celor din sectorul
public
Form a rea bruta a ca pita lului fix Investitii publice (% din PIB)
10
36 8
8
30 6
24 4
4
18 2 2
0
12 0
04Q3 06Q3 08Q3 10Q3 12Q3 14Q3 16Q3
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2015
Sectorul priva t (% d in PIB) Investitii publice ESA 2 0 1 0 , % din PIB
Sectorul public (% d in PIB, a x a din drea pta ) Investitii tota le, m etodologie na tiona la , % din PIB
Nota: Ajustari sezoniere proprii pentru formarea bruta de capital fix in sectorul privat si in sectorul public
Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statistica
Problemele reale ale companiilor tin mai degraba de reformele
structurale
Care este cea mai presanta problema pentru compania dumneavoastra:
ROMANIA UE
regulation regulation
11.5% 12.3%
other other
10.1% 8.8%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
2009 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016
70
Other taxes (% of profit) 62.3 62.6
Hungary
Belgium
Slovenia
Malta
Estonia
Germany
Czech Republic
Italy
Ireland
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Romania
Croatia
Finland
Poland
Latvia
Netherlands
Greece
EU average
Spain
Bulgaria
United Kingdom
Slovak Republic
Austria
France
Denmark
Portugal
40
35.0
34.0 34.4
35
30.2
29.0 29.2 29.5
30 27.9
25.0 25.0 25.0
25
22.0 22.0 22.9
21.0 21.8
20.0 20.0
19.0 19.0 19.0
20 18.0
17.0
16.0
15.0 15.0
15 12.5 12.5
10.0
9.0
10
0
Romania
France
Hungary
Latvia
United Kingdom
Finland
Cyprus
Croatia
Slovenia
Greece
Luxembourg
Ireland
Portugal
Denmark
Lithuania
Austria
Poland
Czech Republic
Netherlands
EA-19
EU-28
Germany
Spain
Estonia
Belgium
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Malta
Italy
Sweden
2016 2017
0.0
Romania
France
Hungary
United Kingdom
Latvia
Finland
Croatia
Slovenia
Cyprus
Denmark
Portugal
Lithuania
Greece
Luxembourg
Ireland
Austria
Poland
Netherlands
Czech Republic
EU-28
EA-19
Germany
Bulgaria
Malta
Slovakia
Spain
Italy
Sweden
Estonia
Belgium
Sursa: Comisia Europeana
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
17
Luxembourg
18
Malta
Germany
Cyprus
19 19 19
Romania
Bulgaria
Estonia
France
Austria
Slovakia
20 20 20 20 20 20
United Kingdom
EA-19
Belgium
Czech Republic
Spain
Latvia
Lithuania
20.8 21 21 21 21 21 21
Netherlands
EU-28
21.5
Italy
22 22
Slovenia
Ireland
Poland
23 23 23
Portugal
Greece
24 24
Finland
Denmark
Cotele legale de TVA standard in tarile din UE (%, 2017)
Croatia
25 25 25
Sweden
Sursa: Comisia Europeana
27
Hungary
Cote de CAS si plafoane in tarile UE
Plafon in cazul
Cote de CAS in cazul Plafon in cazul PFA
Cote de CAS in cazul contractelor de munca
salariatilor Multiplicator (nr salarii medii pe
PFA (self-employed) salariale (nr salarii medii
(angajat+angajator) economie)
pe economie)
(1) (2) (3)=(1)/(2) (4) (5)
Irlanda 13.6 4.0 3.4 nu nu
Cipru 17.3 17.6 1.0 2.4 2.4
Marea Britanie 18.9 5.5 3.4 nu 1.3
Luxemburg 26.5 23.2 1.1 1.9 1.9
Finlanda 29.3 23.7 1.2 1 nu
Malta 29.8 28.5 1.0 1.3 nu
Bulgaria 31.0 25.8 1.2 1.4 2.91
Croatia 32.2 36.7 0.9 5.9 5.9
Letonia 34.1 31.1 1.1 4.7 5
Portugalia 34.8 29.6 1.2 nu 3.7
Estonia 35.4 33.0 1.1 nu 5.1
Spania 36.3 29.8 1.2 nu 1.6
Italia 38.2 23.2 1.6 3.5 2.66
Slovenia 38.2 38.2 1.0 nu 2.92
Suedia 38.4 29.0 1.3 1.2 nu
Austria 38.8 26.2 1.5 1.4 1.6
Polonia 39.0 29.0 1.3 2.5 30.8
Romania 39.4 16.0 2.5 nu nu
Germania 39.6 14.0 2.8 1.7 nu
Cehia 45.0 42.7 1.1 4 4.1
Ungaria 45.5 27.0 1.7 nu nu
Lituania 46.2 37.5 1.2 1.1 2.4
Olanda 46.6 33.7 1.4 1.1 0.7
Belgia 47.8 18.1 2.6 1.4 1.9
Slovacia 48.6 47.2 1.0 3.9 4.02
Franta 52.5 24.7 2.1 4.2 nu
Scaderi de taxe
Impozit pe venit + ++ - - -
Contribuții de asigurări sociale + ++ + +
Impozit pe profit + ++ - - --
Taxe de mediu + -(b) + -
Taxe pe consum (altele decât cele
+ + + --
de mediu)
Taxe recurente asupra bunurilor
+ -
imobile
Alte taxe pe proprietate + -- - -
Vânzări de bunuri și servicii + - + + -
Sursa: Cournède B. et al. - Choosing fiscal consolidation instruments compatible with growth and equity, 2013
Notă: (a) Efectul de cont curent se referă la o țară aflată pe deficit, iar semnele ar fi schimbate în
cazul unei țări caracterizate de surplus al contului curent.
Cheltuieli publice cu educatia in tarile UE, ESA 2010
7.50 18.00
7.0 Pondere in PIB, medie 1995-2015 Pondere in PIB, medie 2010-2015 Pondere in total cheltuieli bugetare (medie 2010-2015)
7.00 16.00
6.6 6.5
6.4
6.50 6.3 6.3 14.00
6.2 6.2
5.9
6.00 5.8 12.00
5.7 5.7
5.5 5.5 5.5
5.50 5.4 10.00
5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0
4.9 4.9 4.8
5.00 8.00
3.00 -
Sursa: EUROSTAT
Cheltuieli publice cu sanatatea in tarile UE, ESA 2010
9 8.6 20
Pondere in PIB medie 1995-2015 Pondere in PIB medie 2010-2015 Pondere in cheltuielile bugetare, medie 2010-2015
8.1 8.0 8.0 18
8 7.8 7.8
7.6 7.6 7.6
7.3 7.2 7.2 16
7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9
7 6.7 6.6 14
6.3
6.1
12
6 5.6 5.6
5.2 5.1 10
5 4.8 4.8 4.7
8
4.0 3.9
4 6
4
2.9
3
2
2 0
Sursa: EUROSTAT
Investitiile publice, ESA 2010, % din PIB
7
6.7 Romania Europa Centrala si de Est
6.5
6.3
6.0
6
5.7
5.5 5.4
5.2 5.2
5
4.8
4.5
4.5
4.3
4 3.9
3.7
3.5 3.4
3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f
Sursa: EUROSTAT, calcule Consiliul Fiscal
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Cyprus
Belgium
Spain
2008
France
Euro area
United Kingdom
European Union
2016
Croatia
Austria
Slovenia
Ireland
Hungary
Germany
Finland
Netherlands
Malta
Poland
Slovakia
Sweden
Lithuania
Latvia
Romania
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.3
3.6
3.9
Datoria publica in tarile UE, ESA2010, % din PIB (1)
Sursa: Ameco
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
Greece
2016
Italy
Portugal
Belgium
2018
Spain
Cyprus
France
Euro area
United Kingdom
European Union
Croatia
Austria
Slovenia
Ireland
Hungary
Finland
Germany
Netherlands
Poland
Malta
Slovakia
Romania
Lithuania
Sweden
Denmark
Czech Republic
Latvia
Bulgaria
Modificare datorie publica in 2018 fata de 2016 (scala din dreapta, pp din PIB) Luxembourg
Estonia
0
1
2
3
4
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
-10
Datoria publica in tarile UE, ESA2010, % din PIB (2)
Sursa: Ameco
Datoria publică a României este deja la un nivel ridicat
în raport cu dimensiunea sectorului bancar
Sursa: BCE
Deficitul in sistemul public de pensii a crescut dupa reducerea de
CAS la sfarsitul lui 2014 – in prezent, 1/3 din pensiile in plata sunt
acoperite cu transferuri din bugetul de stat
65.0 120.0%
Venituri
60.0 111.8% 57.0
Cheltuieli inclusiv MAI, MAN, SRI
54.2 110.0%
55.0 Autofinantare sistem (%, scala din dreapta) 51.5
49.4
50.0 47.5 48.1
-18.9 100.0%
45.0 42.1 -12.8 -17.7
-11.7 (-2.5%
39.9 -12.5
40.0 -12.8 din PIB) 90.0%
-6.9 -10.3
35.0 33.2 38.7
37.7 38.0
35.5 36.5
34.7 80.0%
30.0 32.2 32.9
24.5 31.8
25.0
20.2 70.0%
20.0 22.6
67.3% 66.8%
15.0 18.1 60.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Deficit/Surplus
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
DK RO HR BG SI PT HU FR EE IT EL LV EA FI DE CZ AT PL BE SK ES MT NL NO SE LU IE CY