Se cunosc următoarele date privind legatura dintre Cheltuielile de

vanzarilor realizate. In acest scop, se sistematizeaza d

a)         Să se specifice modelul econometric care descrie leg

b)        Să se estimeze parametrii modelului și să se calculeze valo

ntre Cheltuielile de promovare a unor produse si nivelul
se sistematizeaza datele pentru 15 marfuri.

c care descrie legătura dintre cele doua variabile;

ă se calculeze valorile teoretice ale variabilei endogene.

nr. Crt. cheltuieli promovare (xi) incasari lunare (yj)
1 12.3 1860
2 12.5 1210
3 14 1730
4 14.3 1980
5 14.8 1900
6 16.5 1880
7 16.7 1740
8 18 1500
9 19 3120
10 20 2190
11 20.2 2130
12 20.5 1990
13 22 2880
14 24.3 3100
15 24.9 3340
Total 270 32550
nr. Crt. cheltuieli promovare (xi) incasari lunare (yj)
1 12.3 1860
2 12.5 1210 4000

3 14 1730
3500
4 14.3 1980
5 14.8 1900 3000

6 16.5 1880
7 16.7 1740 2500

Incasari Lunare (y)

8 18 1500 2000
9 19 3120
10 20 2190 1500

11 20.2 2130
1000
12 20.5 1990
13 22 2880 500

14 24.3 3100
15 24.9 3340 0
1

y=f(x)+u
 incasari lunare (yj)
4000

3500

3000

2500
Incasari Lunare (y)

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Ch. de promovare (x)

incasari lunare (yj)

13 14 15
 nr. Crt. cheltuieli promovare (xi) incasari lunare (yj)
1 12.3 1860
2 12.5 1210
3 14 1730
4 14.3 1980
5 14.8 1900
6 16.5 1880
7 16.7 1740
8 18 1500
9 19 3120
10 20 2190
11 20.2 2130
12 20.5 1990
13 22 2880
14 24.3 3100
15 24.9 3340
Total 270 32550

Sistem

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.795716206591489
R Square 0.633164281432349
Adjusted R Square 0.604946149234837
Standard Error 401.509886857577
Observations 15

ANOVA
df SS
Regression 1 3617267.53982301
Residual 13 2095732.46017699
Total 14 5713000

Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept -107.238938053098 491.795525086058
cheltuieli promovare (xi) 126.513274336283 26.7080403892784

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted incasari lunare (yj) Residuals

1 1448.87433628319 411.125663716814
2 1474.17699115044 -264.176991150442
3 1663.94690265487 66.053097345133
4 1701.90088495575 278.099115044248
5 1765.15752212389 134.842477876106
6 1980.23008849557 -100.230088495575
7 2005.53274336283 -265.532743362832
8 2170 -670
9 2296.51327433628 823.486725663717
10 2423.02654867257 -233.026548672566
11 2448.32920353982 -318.329203539823
12 2486.28318584071 -496.283185840708
13 2676.05309734513 203.946902654867
14 2967.03362831858 132.966371681416
15 3042.94159292035 297.058407079646
 xi^ yj^ xi*yj
151.29 3459600 22878
156.25 1464100 15125
196 2992900 24220
204.49 3920400 28314
219.04 3610000 28120
272.25 3534400 31020
278.89 3027600 29058
324 2250000 27000
361 9734400 59280
400 4796100 43800
408.04 4536900 43026
420.25 3960100 40795
484 8294400 63360
590.49 9610000 75330
620.01 11155600 83166
5086 76346500 614492

Legenda frecventa (n)

Xi *Xi (Xi^)
yi*yi (yi^)

In urma efectuari sistemului

a estimat -107.23893805
b estimat 126.51327434

Ecuatia de regresie va fi

Yt = a + b Xt
 MS F Significance F
3617267.54 22.43820664672 0.000388487669273843
161210.1892

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

-0.21805595 0.83077107457 -1169.69857583768 955.220699731483
4.736898421 0.000388487669 68.8140610037438 184.212487668823
Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
-1169.699 955.2207
68.81406 184.2125
nr. Crt. cheltuieli promovare (xi) incasari lunare (yi)
1 12.3 1860
2 12.5 1210
3 14 1730
4 14.3 1980
5 14.8 1900
6 16.5 1880
7 16.7 1740
8 18 1500
9 19 3120
10 20 2190
11 20.2 2130
12 20.5 1990
13 22 2880
14 24.3 3100
15 24.9 3340
Total 270 32550

SUMMARY OUTPUT
 Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.795716206591489
R Square 0.633164281432349
Adjusted R Sq 0.604946149234837
Standard Erro 401.509886857577
Observations 15

ANOVA
df SS
Regression 1 3617267.53982301
Residual 13 2095732.46017699
Total 14 5713000

Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept -107.238938053098 491.795525086058
cheltuieli pro 126.513274336283 26.7080403892784

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted incasari lunare (yj) Residuals

1 1448.87433628319 411.125663716814
2 1474.17699115044 -264.176991150442
3 1663.94690265487 66.053097345133
4 1701.90088495575 278.099115044248
5 1765.15752212389 134.842477876106
6 1980.23008849557 -100.230088495575
7 2005.53274336283 -265.532743362832
8 2170 -670
9 2296.51327433628 823.486725663717
10 2423.02654867257 -233.026548672566
11 2448.32920353982 -318.329203539823
12 2486.28318584071 -496.283185840708
13 2676.05309734513 203.946902654867
14 2967.03362831858 132.966371681416
15 3042.94159292035 297.058407079646
 y estimat
1448.8743363
1474.1769912
1663.9469027
1701.900885
1765.1575221
1980.2300885
2005.5327434
2170
2296.5132743
2423.0265487
2448.3292035
2486.2831858
2676.0530973
2967.0336283
3042.9415929
32550

Ch de promovare (Y) = Y estimat

In urma efectuari sistemului

a estimat -107.239
b estimat 126.513

Ecuatia de regresie va fi

Yt = a + b Xt
 MS F Significance F
3617267.53982301 22.43821 0.000388487669273843
161210.189244384

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

-0.218055945170165 0.830771 -1169.69857583768 955.220699731483
4.73689842056216 0.000388 68.8140610037438 184.212487668823
Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
-1169.699 955.2207
68.81406 184.2125
nr. Crt. cheltuieli promovare (xi) incasari lunare (yi) y estimat
1 12.3 1860 1448.833
2 12.5 1210 1474.135
3 14 1730 1663.9
4 14.3 1980 1701.853
5 14.8 1900 1765.108
6 16.5 1880 1980.175
7 16.7 1740 2005.477
8 18 1500 2169.94
9 19 3120 2296.45
10 20 2190 2422.96
11 20.2 2130 2448.262
12 20.5 1990 2486.215
13 22 2880 2675.98
14 24.3 3100 2966.953
15 24.9 3340 3042.859
Total 270 32550 32549.1

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.795716206591489
R Square 0.633164281432349
Adjusted R Sq 0.604946149234837
Standard Erro 401.509886857577
Observations 15

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 3617267.53982301 3617267.539823
Residual 13 2095732.46017699 161210.18924438
Total 14 5713000

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept -107.238938053098 491.795525086058 -0.21805594517
cheltuieli pro 126.513274336283 26.7080403892784 4.7368984205622

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted incasari lunare (yj) Residuals

1 1448.87433628319 411.125663716814
2 1474.17699115044 -264.176991150442
3 1663.94690265487 66.053097345133
4 1701.90088495575 278.099115044248
5 1765.15752212389 134.842477876106
6 1980.23008849557 -100.230088495575
7 2005.53274336283 -265.532743362832
8 2170 -670
9 2296.51327433628 823.486725663717
10 2423.02654867257 -233.026548672566
11 2448.32920353982 -318.329203539823
12 2486.28318584071 -496.283185840708
13 2676.05309734513 203.946902654867
14 2967.03362831858 132.966371681416
15 3042.94159292035 297.058407079646
yj-y estim (u)
411.167
-264.135
66.1
278.147
134.892
-100.175
-265.477
-669.94
823.55
-232.96
-318.262
-496.215
204.02
133.047
297.141
0.9

F Significance F
22.4382066467243 0.000388

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%
 0.830771074569543 -1169.699 955.2207 -1169.699 955.2207
0.00038848766927384 68.81406 184.2125 68.81406 184.2125
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.795716206591489 Coeficientul de corelatie
R Square 0.633164281432349 Coeficientul de determinare
Adjusted R Square 0.604946149234837
Standard Error 401.509886857577 Abaterea medie patratica a variab
Observations 15

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1 3617267.53982 3617267.5398
Residual 13 2095732.46018 161210.18924
Total 14 5713000

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept -107.238938053098 491.795525086 -0.2180559452
cheltuieli promovare (xi) 126.513274336283 26.7080403893 4.7368984206

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted incasari lunare (yj) Residuals

1 1448.87433628319 411.125663717
2 1474.17699115044 -264.17699115
3 1663.94690265487 66.0530973451
4 1701.90088495575 278.099115044
5 1765.15752212389 134.842477876
6 1980.23008849557 -100.2300885
7 2005.53274336283 -265.53274336
8 2170 -670

9 2296.51327433628 823.486725664
10 2423.02654867257 -233.02654867
11 2448.32920353982 -318.32920354
12 2486.28318584071 -496.28318584
13 2676.05309734513 203.946902655

14 2967.03362831858 132.966371681
15 3042.94159292035 297.05840708
 Pentru a calcula abaterea, trebuie sa calcu
Dispersia este

oeficientul de corelatie
eficientul de determinare

Abaterea medie patratica a variabilei reziduale (Ut) Apoi abaterea medie patratica e

F Significance F
22.438206647 0.0003884877

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

0.8307710746 -1169.6985758 955.22069973 -1169.6985758 955.22069973 Abaterea medie patratica
0.0003884877 68.814061004 184.21248767 68.814061004 184.21248767 Abaterea medie patratica

Coeficientul de corelatie

Ecuatia de regresie liniara

-491.7955250861 26.7080403892784
aterea, trebuie sa calculam mai intai dispersia

a medie patratica este

erea medie patratica a parametrului ( a )

erea medie patratica a parametrului ( b )