t y x1 x2 x3

y teoretic
1 17 3 42 115 18 SUMMARY OUTPUT
2 19 2 40 126 17
3 15 4 40 148 19 Regression Statistics
4 21 7 44 139 20 Multiple R
5 19 8 39 123 22 R Square
6 24 9 38 150 23 Adjusted R Squ
7 26 9 29 126 26 Standard Error
8 24 6 30 141 24 Observations
9 26 6 38 122 21
10 21 9 35 157 24 ANOVA
11 24 5 29 155 23
12 26 10 28 166 27 Regression
13 30 13 32 168 28 Residual
14 26 8 26 174 26 Total
suma 318 318
ryxi 0.7202 -0.6948 0.4801 Coefficients
intensitatea medie medie slaba Intercept
natura directa inversa directa x1 X Variable 1
x2 X Variable 2
y - profitul lunar (mil. Euro) x3 X Variable 3
x1 - nr. angajati (pers.)
x2 - chelt intretinere utilaje (mii euro) yteo = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + a3x3
x3 - chelt mk (euro) yteo = 35,724 + 0,802x1 - 0,381x2

1. Graficul evolutiei profitul

2. Grafice de corelatie intre y si fiecare variabila x (3 grafice XY Scatter plot)
3. Coeficientii de corelatie, ryx
4. modelul econometric
5. calculul valorilor teoretice ale lui y
6. graficele actualizate
Se adauga y teo pe graficul evolutiei lui v si pe graficelee de corelatie ale lui y cu x1 si cu x2.

yteo = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + a3x3 Se elimina variabila x3 din model!

a3 este nesemnificativ diferit de 0.
1. Analiza grafica a evolutiei profitului

Evolutia profitului lunar la SC AAA srl Bv intre ian. 2021 - febr. 2022
35

30

25
mil. euro

20

15

10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
luni
 mil.
20

15

10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
luni

2. Analiza corelatiilor

Corelatia profit lunar - nr. angajati la SC AAA srl Bv intre Corelatia profit lunar - chelt. intretinere la
ian. 2021 - febr. 2022 ian. 2021 - febr. 2022
35 35

30 30
profit (mil. euro)

profit (mil. euro)

25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 20 25 30 35
Nr. angajati (pers.), x1 Chelt. intretinere (mii eur

3. Coef corelatie simpla r y x1 0.720172

medie
directa

4. Elaborarea modelului econometric

MMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
0.838264 Coef de corelatie multipla = Leg simultana puternica intre y, x1, x2 si x3
0.702687 Coef de determinatie = Modelul liniar explica 70% din variatia lui y in functie de x1, x2 si x3
0.613493
2.597069
14 Probabilitatea de garantare a rezultatelor P=95%, P=1-alfa
alfa - prag de semnificatie, 5%
Analiza dispersionala Fisher <5% Regresia este global semnificativa
df SS MS F Significance F P= 99.45%
3 159.409477 53.13649 7.878181 0.005452305
10 67.447666 6.744767
13 226.857143
<5%
CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
35.723 10.9941968 3.249218 0.008732 11.22594484 60.21914 11.22594 60.21914
0.802 0.29843584 2.687012 0.022816 0.136944198 1.466857 0.136944 1.466857
-0.381 0.15658069 -2.435564 0.035114 -0.730245881 -0.032479 -0.730246 -0.032479
-0.037 0.05202312 -0.713768 0.491694 -0.153047181 0.078782 -0.153047 0.078782

eo = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + a3x3

eo = 35,724 + 0,802x1 - 0,381x2 - 0.037x3
t Student
aˆ i  a  aˆ i
a0 3.249218 H1
t  
t 
ai
a1 2.687012 H2 ai
ˆ aˆi ˆ aˆi
a2 -2.435564
a3 -0.713768
Cand a=0 H0 ai = 0 ai = a
t Student H1 ai<>0 ai<>a
t Student, teo, 5% 2.228139

elimina variabila x3 din model!

este nesemnificativ diferit de 0. H0

H1

-2,228 0 2,228

n n

 t
( y
t 1
 y ) 2
  t
( ˆ
y  y ) 2

t 1
 n n

 t
( y  y )
t 1
2
  t
( ˆ
y  y ) 2

t 1

tia profit lunar - chelt. intretinere la SC AAA srl Bv intre Corelatia profit lunar - chelt marketing la SC AAA srl Bv intre
ian. 2021 - febr. 2022 ian. 2021 - febr. 2022
35

30

profit (mil. euro)

25

20

15

10
25 30 35 40 45 50 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180

Chelt. intretinere (mii euro), x2 chelt. marketing (euro), x3

r y x2 -0.6948 r y x3 0.4801
medie slaba
inversa directa
 SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.82918
R Square 0.68754
Adjusted R Squar 0.630729
Standard Error 2.538501
5%, P=1-alfa Observations 14

ANOVA <5%
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 155.9733 77.98663 12.10223 0.001665
Residual 11 70.88389 6.44399
Total 13 226.8571
<5%
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 90.0%
Intercept 29.1429 5.856343 4.976297 0.000418 16.25318 42.03263 18.62559
X Variable 1 0.714896 0.266264 2.684916 0.021221 0.128853 1.300939 0.236717
X Variable 2 -0.328113 0.134561 -2.438392 0.032916 -0.62428 -0.031946 -0.569769

yteo=29.143 + 0.715x1 - 0.328 x2

aˆ i
t  ai
ˆ aˆi

H1

 t
(
1
ˆ
y  y ) 2
  t t
( y  ˆ
y ) 2

t 1
 n

 t
(
1
ˆ
y  y ) 2
  t t
( y  ˆ
y ) 2

t 1

ng la SC AAA srl Bv intre

2022

150 160 170 180

euro), x3
Upper 90.0%
39.66022
1.193075
-0.086456