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Anul Vanzari
(t) (Rt) Vanzarile anuale de biciclete
1 21.6 33
31.5 31.4
2 22.9
31
3 25.5 28.6
4 21.9 29 29.7
5 23.9 27.5
[mii bucati]
27
6 27.5
25 22.9
7 31.5 25.5
21.9
8 29.7 23 23.9
9 28.6 21
21.6
10 31.4 19
11 ? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pentru aceasta situatie, se utilizeaza Metode de trend care sa inlature efectele aleatoare si sa determine acea tendinta
de crestere (sau scadere) a vanzarilor.
PROBLEMA VANZARILOR DE BICICLETE
[mii bucati]
5 23.9 119.5 25 27
6 27.5 165.0 36 25.5
25
7 31.5 220.5 49 22.9 23.9
23
8 29.7 237.6 64
9 28.6 257.4 81 21
21.6 21.9
10 31.4 314.0 100 19
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Suma 55 264.5 1545.5 385
〗 )/(∑▒ 〖𝐭 ^𝟐 − b= 20.400
(∑▒𝐭)^𝟐/𝐧 〗 ) T(t) = 1.100 * t + 20.400
b = (∑▒𝑹𝒕)/𝒏 -
a∙(∑▒𝒕)/𝒏
(∑▒ 〖𝐭∙∑▒𝐑𝐭〗 )/𝐧
〗 )/(∑▒ 〖𝐭 ^𝟐 −
(∑▒𝐭)^𝟐/𝐧 〗 )
b = (∑▒𝑹𝒕)/𝒏 -
unde: a∙(∑▒𝒕)/𝒏
n = numarul de puncte printre care se face interpolarea (numarul de valori istorice)
Sfarsit
Anul Vanzari
(t) (Rt) (Pt) (Et) (Et)^2
1 21.6 21.5 0.1 0.01
2 22.9 22.6 0.3 0.09
3 25.5 23.7 1.8 3.24
4 21.9 24.8 -2.9 8.41
5 23.9 25.9 -2 4
6 27.5 27.0 0.5 0.25
7 31.5 28.1 3.4 11.56
8 29.7 29.2 0.5 0.25
9 28.6 30.3 -1.7 2.89
10 31.4 31.4 0 0
EMP 3.07
Sigma 1.752
Grad de incredere de 90% → k= 1.645
k*sigma 2.88