1.

Determinati traiectoria de evolutie a populatiei pentru:

 P0=20, k=0,03 si k=0,05;
 P0=50, k=0,03 si k=0,05;
 P0=100, k=0,03 si k=0,05.

Reprezentati graficele cu ajutorul EXCEL.

p01=20 p02=50 p03=100 k1=0.03 k2=0.05 t k1*t k2*t

20 50 100 0.03 0.05 1 0.03 0.05
20 50 100 0.03 0.05 2 0.06 0.1
20 50 100 0.03 0.05 3 0.09 0.15
20 50 100 0.03 0.05 4 0.12 0.2
20 50 100 0.03 0.05 5 0.15 0.25
20 50 100 0.03 0.05 6 0.18 0.3
20 50 100 0.03 0.05 7 0.21 0.35
20 50 100 0.03 0.05 8 0.24 0.4
20 50 100 0.03 0.05 9 0.27 0.45
20 50 100 0.03 0.05 10 0.3 0.5

p(t)=p0*e^(k*t)(p01,k1) p(t)=p0*e^(k*t)(p02,k1) p(t)=p0*e^(k*t)(p03,k1)

20.60720419 51.51801047 103.0360209
21.23284323 53.08210806 106.1642161
21.87747679 54.69369198 109.387384
22.54168157 56.35420393 112.7084079
23.22605175 58.06512937 116.1302587
23.93119954 59.82799886 119.6559977
24.65775577 61.64438944 123.2887789
25.40637041 63.51592601 127.031852
26.17771313 65.44428283 130.8885657
26.97247399 67.43118497 134.8623699
p(t)=p0*e^(k*t)(p01,k2) p(t)=p0*e^(k*t)(p02,k2) p(t)=p0*e^(k*t)(p03,k2)
21.02221436 52.5555359 21.02221436
22.09667483 55.24168708 22.09667483
23.22605175 58.06512937 23.22605175
24.41315193 61.03287982 24.41315193
25.66092565 64.15231413 25.66092565
26.97247399 67.43118497 26.97247399
28.3510565 70.87764125 28.3510565
29.80009935 74.50024838 29.80009935
31.32320383 78.30800957 31.32320383
32.92415527 82.31038817 32.92415527

1
 2. Modelul Harrod-Domar. Folosind EXCEL, determinati traiectoriile Y(t), I(t), C(t),
cunoscand datele:
𝑠
Y0=100 u.m., s=0.3, =0.7, Y(t)=100*𝑒 ()∗𝑡 , I(t)=S(t)=s*Y(t), C(t)=*Y(t)

t Y0 s n (s/n)*t Y(t)=Y0*e^[(s/n)*t] I(t)=S(t)=s*Y(t) C(t)=n*Y(t)

1 100 0.3 0.7 0.428571429 153.3056877 45.9917063 107.3139814
2 100 0.3 0.7 0.857142857 235.0263387 70.5079016 164.5184371
3 100 0.3 0.7 1.285714286 360.3087447 108.0926234 252.2161213
4 100 0.3 0.7 1.714285714 552.3737987 165.7121396 386.6616591
5 100 0.3 0.7 2.142857143 846.8204505 254.0461352 592.7743154
6 100 0.3 0.7 2.571428571 1298.223915 389.4671745 908.7567404
7 100 0.3 0.7 3 1990.2511 597.07533 1393.17577
8 100 0.3 0.7 3.428571429 3051.168135 915.3504405 2135.817694
9 100 0.3 0.7 3.857142857 4677.614291 1403.284287 3274.330004
10 100 0.3 0.7 4.285714286 7171.048754 2151.314626 5019.734128

2
 3. Se cunosc datele:

L0=100, n=0.008, K0=1000, =0.05, =0.35, a=10, s=0.3.

a) Calculati traiectoria inzestrarii tehnice a muncii pentru t=1-10 si faceti graficul in EXCEL

-(1-
t L0 n K0 a s )(n+ )*t k(t)
1 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.0377 1911.935199
2 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.0754 1845.168967
3 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.1131 1781.654908
4 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.1508 1721.223634
5 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.1885 1663.714991
6 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.2262 1608.977546
7 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.2639 1556.868099
8 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.3016 1507.251225
9 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.3393 1459.998842
10 1000 0.008 1000 0.05 0.35 10 0.3 -0.377 1414.9898

3
 b) Calculati traiectoria stocului total al capitalului pentru t=1-10 si faceti graficul in EXCEL

1 /(1 )
 as  as 
K (t )  L0ent   e(1 )( n  )t  k01  
n   n   

K (t )  100e 0,008t k (t )

t L0 k(t) K(t)
1 1000 1911.935 21229.26
2 1000 1845.169 20487.92
3 1000 1781.655 19782.69
4 1000 1721.224 19111.69
5 1000 1663.715 18473.14
6 1000 1608.978 17865.36
7 1000 1556.868 17286.76
8 1000 1507.251 16735.84
9 1000 1459.999 16211.17
10 1000 1414.99 15711.41

c) Calculati venitul per capita si venitul total si faceti graficele corespunzatoare in EXCEL

y(t )  ak (t )

Y (t )  aK (t ) L(t )1  aL0 e nt k (t )

4
t n L0 a k(t) y(t)=a*k(t)^ Y(t)=a*L0*e^(n*t)*k(t)^
1 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1911.935199 140.7717822 141899.0093
2 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1845.168967 139.0313211 141266.8165
3 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1781.654908 137.3372212 140662.8845
4 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1721.223634 135.6885043 140087.0767
5 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1663.714991 134.0842063 139539.2541
6 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1608.977546 132.523377 139019.2753
7 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1556.868099 131.0050801 138526.9962
8 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1507.251225 129.5283925 138062.2703
9 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1459.998842 128.0924047 137624.948
10 0.008 1000 10 0.35 1414.9898 126.6962201 137214.8773

d) Calculati punctele fixe ale traiectoriei

k1  0
1 /( 1)
 n   
k2     432,960
 sa 

e) Calculati traiectoria de echilibru a stocului total de capital si a venitului de echilibru

pentru t=1-10 si faceti graficele EXCEL

K (t )   L0 e nt k 2

Y (t )   a( L0 e nt k 2 ) ( L0 e nt )1

5
t a L0 n K(t)*=L0*e^(n*t)*432.96 Y(t)*=a*((L0*e^(n*t)*k2*)^ L0 e^ n*t ^
1 0.35 10 1000 0.008 436426.918 84376.29969
2 0.35 10 1000 0.008 439921.5973 85051.94112
3 0.35 10 1000 0.008 443444.2602 85732.99274
4 0.35 10 1000 0.008 446995.1307 86419.49786
5 0.35 10 1000 0.008 450574.4348 87111.50016
6 0.35 10 1000 0.008 454182.4 87809.04365
7 0.35 10 1000 0.008 457819.2559 88512.17271
8 0.35 10 1000 0.008 461485.2339 89220.93206
9 0.35 10 1000 0.008 465180.5672 89935.36678
10 0.35 10 1000 0.008 468905.4907 90655.52232

f) Calculati investitiile brute si consumul pentru t=1-10 in marimi per capita si marimi
totale si faceti graficele.
i(t)=s*a*k(t)^
c(t)=(1-s)*a*k(t)^

c(t)=(1-
s a k(t) i(t)=s*a*k(t)^ s)*a*k(t)^
0.3 10 0.35 1911.935199 42.23153467 98.54024757
0.3 10 0.35 1845.168967 41.70939634 97.32192479
0.3 10 0.35 1781.654908 41.20116637 96.13605486
0.3 10 0.35 1721.223634 40.70655129 94.98195301
0.3 10 0.35 1663.714991 40.22526188 93.85894439
0.3 10 0.35 1608.977546 39.7570131 92.76636391
0.3 10 0.35 1556.868099 39.30152403 91.70355606
0.3 10 0.35 1507.251225 38.85851776 90.66987478
0.3 10 0.35 1459.998842 38.42772142 89.66468331
0.3 10 0.35 1414.9898 38.00886604 88.68735409

6
 160
140
120
100
80 c(t)

60 i(t)

40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

I(t)=sY(t)
C(t)=Y(t)-I(t)

C(t)=Y(t)-
s Y(t) I(t)=s*Y(t) I(t)
0.3 141899.0093 42569.70279 99329.30651
0.3 141266.8165 42380.04495 98886.77155
0.3 140662.8845 42198.86534 98464.01914
0.3 140087.0767 42026.123 98060.95367
0.3 139539.2541 41861.77623 97677.47786
0.3 139019.2753 41705.78259 97313.4927
0.3 138526.9962 41558.09887 96968.89736
0.3 138062.2703 41418.68108 96643.58918
0.3 137624.948 41287.4844 96337.4636
0.3 137214.8773 41164.46319 96050.4141

7
 g) Analizati efectele cresterii ratei economiilor de s0=0.3 la s1=0.35:
- Asupra traiectoriei de echilibru;

k2*=((0.008+0.05)/0.35*10)^(1/(0.35-1))=548.8406019

K(t)*=L0*e^(n*t)*548.840 Y(t)*=a*((L0*e^(n*t)*k2*)^ L0 e^ n*t

k2* 6019 ^ )
548.84060
19 553235.4314 91679.01435
548.84060
19 557665.4524 92413.13212
548.84060
19 562130.9467 93153.12831
548.84060
19 566632.1983 93899.05001
548.84060
19 571169.4937 94650.94467
548.84060
19 575743.1213 95408.8601
548.84060
19 580353.3721 96172.84453
548.84060
19 585000.5394 96942.94654
548.84060
19 589684.9189 97719.21513
548.84060
19 594406.8084 98501.69968
Observam ca o modificare a ratei de crestere a eonomiilor duce la o crestere a lui k2* cu aproape
116, fapt ce duce la dublarea valorilor de echilibru K(t)* si Y(t)*.

- Asupra consumului: stabiliti numeric daca acesta creste sau scade ( f’(k12*)>(n+)
sau f’(k12*)<(n+) )
?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

8
 4. Pentru modelul lui Malthaus consideram datele: K=1.5, P0=1000. Calculati populatia
pentru t=1-10, faceti graficul, calculati punctul fix si analizati stabilitatea.
 Populatia: pt=k*p(t-1)  pt=(1+k)*p(t-1)  solutia analitica: pt=(1+k)^t*p0

t p0 k pt=(1+k)^t*p0
1 1000 1.5 2500
2 1000 1.5 6250
3 1000 1.5 15625
4 1000 1.5 39062.5
5 1000 1.5 97656.25
6 1000 1.5 244140.625
7 1000 1.5 610351.5625
8 1000 1.5 1525878.906
9 1000 1.5 3814697.266
10 1000 1.5 9536743.164

 Punctul fix: p*=(1+k)p*  p*=0

 Stabilitatea:
lim pt  lim (1  k ) t p0  
t  t 
Sistem asimptotic instabil, punct fix repelor

5. Modelul Harrod-Domar, varianta discreta

Se dau datele: Y0=1000, =0.25, s=0.3.

Scrieti traiectoria de evolutie a venitului, calculati punctul fix, analizati stabilitatea (tipul de
punct fix) si faceti graficul traiectoriei pentru t=1-10.
 Traiectoria de evolutie a venitului:
St=s*Yt
It=(Yt-Y(t-1))
St=It
Din relatiile de mai sus obtinem ecuatia:
  
Yt   Yt 1
  s 
Ecuatia de mai sus are solutia:
  
t

Yt    Y0
  s 

9
 t Y0 s Yt=((v/v-s)^t)*Y0 1.2E+10
1 1000 0.25 0.3 -5000 1E+10
2 1000 0.25 0.3 25000 8E+09
3 1000 0.25 0.3 -125000 6E+09
4 1000 0.25 0.3 625000 4E+09 Yt
5 1000 0.25 0.3 -3125000 2E+09
6 1000 0.25 0.3 15625000 0
7 1000 0.25 0.3 -78125000 -2E+09 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
8 1000 0.25 0.3 390625000 -4E+09
9 1000 0.25 0.3 -1953125000
10 1000 0.25 0.3 9765625000

 Punctul fix:

  
Y  Y  Y  0
   s 
 Stabilitatea:

Deoarece |/(-s)|= |0.25/(0.25-0.3)|= |0.25/(-0.05)|= |-5|= 5>1 spunem ca sistemul este instabil.

6. Modelul lui Sollow in timp discret- reprezentare in EXCEL a exercitiului rezolvat la

seminar

t C ktP kt=C* ^t+ktP 20

1 13.33 0.91176 6.67 18.8237608
2 13.33 0.91176 6.67 17.75131295 15
3 13.33 0.91176 6.67 16.77349789
4 13.33 0.91176 6.67 15.88196524 10
5 13.33 0.91176 6.67 15.06910143 kt
6 13.33 0.91176 6.67 14.32796472
5
7 13.33 0.91176 6.67 13.65222591
8 13.33 0.91176 6.67 13.0361143
0
9 13.33 0.91176 6.67 12.47436837
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 13.33 0.91176 6.67 11.9621909

Observam ca de-a lungul timpului, inzestrarea tehnica a muncii scade.

7. Modelul ciclului comercial al lui Hicks

Se dau datele: c’=0.75, k=2.5, g=0.1, A0=100, Y0=100, Y-1=50. Scrieti ecuatia de dinamica
a venitului, calculati valorile indicatorilor din tabel pentru t=1-10 si faceti graficele.

Yt=Ct+It
10
Ct=c’Y(t-1)
It=It,Y+It,A
It,Y=k(Y(t-1)-Y(t-2))
It,A=A0(l+g)^t
Substituind, obtinem ecuatia de dinamica a venitului:
Yt  c Yt 1  A0 (1  g ) t  k (Yt 1  Yt 2 )
t k A0 g Y(t-1) c' Y(t-1)-Y(t-2)
1 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50
2 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50
3 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50
4 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50
5 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50
6 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50
7 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50
8 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50
9 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50
10 2.5 100 0.1 100 0.75 50

It,Y=k*(Y(t-1)-Y(t-2)) It,A=A0*(1+g)^t Ct=c'*Y(t-1) Yt=Ct+It,Y+It,A

125 110 75 310
125 121 75 321
125 133.1 75 333.1
125 146.41 75 346.41
125 161.051 75 361.051
125 177.1561 75 377.1561
125 194.87171 75 394.87171
125 214.358881 75 414.358881
125 235.7947691 75 435.7947691
125 259.374246 75 459.374246

11
8.

12