EDITURA AISTEDA a fost agreata de Coasiliul National al Cercetirii $tiintifice din afamintul Superior (CNCSIS) gi a fost recomandaté Consiliului National de Atestare a Titlurilor si Diplomelor Universitare pentre ca lucrarile publicate sa fie luate in considerare de Contrul National pentru Politica Stiintei si Scientometrie in programele sale strategice Lucrarile acceptate pentru publicarea in sectiunea CURSURI UNIVERSITARE sunt recomandate de catedrele de specialitate ale Facultatitor cu care autorii colaboreazi si poartd girul stiintific al unor remarcabile personalitati din spatiut academic romanese reunite in CONSILIUL STUNTIFIC EDITORIAL. in functie de domeniul din care fac parte lucrarile pot fi publicate in una din urmatoarele serii 1- DREPT 4-MATEMATICI ECONOMICE 2-ECONOMICA 5 - POLITICA 3 - TEHNICA EDITURA AISTEDA a publicat volumele unor prestigioase manifestari stiintifice cu participare international EDITURA AISTEDA a tradus si pubticat materiale puse in circulatie de Uniunea European CONSILIUL STUNTIFIC Presedinte: Academician Petre P. Teodorescu Membrii, Prof dr Bacaci Alexandru, Prof dr Batrincea loan; Prof dr Beju Viorel: Prot dr Begliu Calin: Prof, dr. Ciobanu Gheorghe. Prof dr Cistelecan Lazar; Prof. dr. Coderie Constantin, Prof. Dr. Costache Dumitru; Prof. dr.Costin Mircea. Prof. dr Deleanu Toan; Prof. Diaconu lon; Prof dr. Diu Gheorghe, Prof dr. Lazir Dumitru: Prof. dr. Les loan; Prof. dr, Lobontiu Mircea, Prof dr. Mihut loan; Prof dr. Minea Stefan; Prof dr. Mircea loan, Prof dr. Moise Maria, Prof. Dr. Naianu Bedros Petru; Prof, dr. Paunescu fon; Prof dr. Plumb lon; Prof dr. Roménu lon; Prof. dr. Rosca Teodor: Prof dr. Rujan Ovidiu; Prof dr. Santai foan; Prof. dr. Stoica Marcel, Prof dr Stoica Natalia; Prof dr. Teodorescu Constantin; Prof. dr.Tulai Constantin, Prof dr. Ungureanu Ovidiu ISBN: 973-8408-18-0 ‘Tehnoredactare: Ing. Ec. Adriana Vidragcu Editura AISTEDA, Splaiu! Unirii 313, Tel/fax: 346 49 00 / 346 48 98ORGANIZATORI: ACADEMIA ROMANA, , Comisia de Cibernetica Socio-Economica Grupul de Cercetari Interdisciplinare ACADEMIA DE STUDII ECONOMICE, Catedra de Ciberneticé Economica Departamentul de Cercetiri Economice ACADEMIA “STEFAN ODOBLEJA" ACADEMIA INFORMATIZATA PENTRU STHNTE TEHNICE, ECONOMICE, DE DREPT $I ADMINISTRATIE - AISTEDA UNIVERSITATEA ECOLOGICA BUCURESTI UNIVERSITATEA EUROPEANA DRAGAN Facultatea de Cibernetica si Informatica Economica MUZEUL TEHNIC “PROF.ING. D. LEONIDA” CO ~— PRESEDINTI (in ordine alfabetica): RICHARD AMOROSO, director Noetic Institute, USA MARIANA BELIS, director stiintific al Supinfo Paris, Scoala Superioara de Informatica MIRCEA MALITA, academician CONSTANTIN VIRGIL NEGOITA, profesor, Universitatea New York, Hunter College CONSTANTIN BALACEANU STOLNICI, academician, presedintele Societatii Atencul Roman EUGEN TIGANESCU, sef catedra Cibernetica Economica, ASE ROBERT VALLEE, director genera! World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics COMITETUL DE ORGANIZARE: Profdr. Radu Stroe, ASE Profdr. Marius Bacescu, ASE Prof dr. Marcel Stoica, ASE Dr.ing. Gheorghe Mincu Sandulescu, [PA Profdr, Eufrosina Otlacan, Universitatea Gh. Cristea Confdr. Bulz Nicolae, U.E.B Conf dr. Tie Gheorghe - AISTEDA Dr. Gavrit Acdlugaritei - Academia "Stefan Odobleja” Constantin Dumitrescu, dovan Faculttes de Ciberetic informatica economied, Universitatea Europeant Lugo} Lect dr.ing. Adriana Grigorescu - U.E,D, Lugoj Asist ing.ec. Adriana Vidrascu - AISTEDA Dr.ing. Nicolae Diaconescu - Director Muzeul Tehnic "Prof ing. D. Leonida" Asisting, Claudia Birladeanu ~ AISTEDA Drd. Catalin Mihaiescu, BNRPORTRET ODOBLEJA STEFAN ODOBLEJA $I RATIONALITATEA STIINTIFICA A PROCESELOR COGNITIVE Prof.univ.dr. Ioan Cristescu In cele doud opere fundamentale, care |-au consacrat (Psihologia consonantista si Logica rezonantei, réimase in stadiul de breviare ale respectivelor domenii de cunoastere), Stefan Odobleja abordeazi cu intuitie exceptionald problemele psihologiei si logicit cognitivitiii, aceasta din urmé imeleasét ca inputurile si outputurile cunoasterii umane. El deceleaza, pe de-o parte, 70 de fenomene psihice, a ctiror apoteozét o reprezinté Arta de a crea (euristica), iar pe de alté parte o multitudine de modele de géndire, a ciror apoteoz& 0 constituie elaborarea de noi conceptii logice. Preliminarii. Scrierile edite si inedite ale lui Stefan Odobleja (n. la 13 octombrie 1902, m. Ja 4 septembrie 1978) au prilejuit autorului acestor randuri o neincetata chemare spre mereu noi lecturi si interpretari. In cele ce urmeazi, se sugereazA 0 ipostaz’ ineditA a Psihologiei consonantiste si a Logicii rezonantei, in temeiul reluarii unor lecturi_ din dorinta de a gasi mereu noi conexiuni teoretice- ideatice, metodologice si operationale. Este, in cazul de fata, vorba de sugestiile de cognitivitate oferite de $t. O. in cele doud opere capitale ale sale, PC gi LR, ramase, pana la obstescul sfarsit al autorului lor, doar ca prime aproximéri, in domeniile de psihologie, respectiv de logic’, pe care, pana la ,,faranul roman, devenit creator de stiinta luminat& de o inalta constiinta”, istoria stiintelor nu le-a cunoscut Atat in PC, cat si in LR, problemele cognitivitatii, ca aspecte specifice, psihologice si logice, ale ,,inputurilor” (proceselor) si ,outputurilor” (produselor/rezultatelor)cunoasterii umane se pun, dup& cum se va observa in continuare, in mod repetat, desi nu totdeauna gi sistematic, $t. O. preferand uneori notatia eliptica, fulgurant, grabita, de teama de a nu pierde idei si timp, redactare asupra cireia desigur el ar fi revenit, intr-o tratare extinsa, desi, poate, nici © data exhaustiva, Este revelatorie pentru propensiunea inventatorului conceptelor de consonanti si rezonanta (in psihologie, respectiv in logica) spre problematica procesualitatii_cognitive sustinerea, corespunzator careia consonantismul psihologic ,,se inspira direct din gandirea insagi, pe care o sesizezaza pe viu, in actiune, si se straduieste, de asemenea, si explice gandirea reala” ", teza valabila gi pentru rezonanta logic. Dintre ipostazele cognitivitatii pe care le-am decelat, fie si fugar, neprofesionist, de pilda, in PC, s-ar putea exemplifica, in ordinea aparitiei: abstractia, imaginatia, judecata, intuitia, perceptia, conceptualizarea, definitia, comparatia, analiza, rationamentul/silogismul, experienta, creatia, ipoteza, verificarea, adevarul, eroarea, certitudinea, interogatia, recunoasterea, constiinta, introspectia, gandirea, visarea/visul, perseverenta, adaptarea, uitarea, dispozitiile si aplicatiile cognitive ete. La randul ei, LR, ca logica psihologizata, in sens consonantist odoblejian, dubleaza, in cercetarea procesului cunoasterii,psihologia. ,.Logica- scrie St. O.- este partea de psihologie, care se ocupa cu. portiunea cea mai inalt, cea mai subtila, cea mai enigmatica din toata psihologia, din toata fiziologia cerebrala..este partea cea mai atragatoare si mai interesanta din psihologie..cea_mai interioara si cea mai introspectiva a psihologiei.. Logica (evident LR!) este o psihologie a cunoasterii modelaté pe vorbire, pe gramatici, pe geometrie, matematicé si alte produse ale gandirii. Psihologia consonantist4, psihologia rezonantei.., pornita din fizicd, se intalneste si se contopeste, la nivelul psihologiei, cu traiectoria pornita din logica” “ (sublinierile ti apartin lui St. O.). Prin asemenea »declaratii de principii” ale autorului lor, PC si LR dobandesc drept de cetate printre lucrarile de pionicrat din psihologia si logica proceselor/procesualitatii cognitiei Introducere Cel ce a gandit si asternut pe hartie pe plaiuri mehedintene aceste ,,schite introductive” ale rationalitatii stiintifice, care sunt PC si LR, cu rezonante azi in intreaga lume stiintifica, Stefan Odobleja, a putut explora/investiga, cu mintea-i iscoditoare procesele psihologice si logice ale cognitiei/cunoasterii - atat independent, manat de un irezistibil elan creator, cat si inspirat de literatura timpului sau, pe care a cunoscut-o gi a revarsat-o, in aceste elaborate rational — stiintifice, ca dintr-un adevarat corn al abundentei, daca nu chiar al risipei de intelectualitate. Validitatea viziunilor psihologice si logice ale lui $t.O. in problematica procesualititii cognitive ne-o confirma lecturi relativ recente ate unor lucrari romanesti, prezente in catalogul informatizat al Bibliotecii Academiei Romane, gi consultate prioritar pentru scrierea acestor randuri.,Introducere in psihologia cognitiva”, partea I, publicati de Ruxandra Gherghinescu in Editura Smart, in 2002, ,,Gnoseologie”, publicaté de Ionel Narita, la Editura Mirton, in 2001, ,,Psihologie cognitiva. Modele teoretico- experimentale”, publicaté de Mircea Miclea (edifia a Il-a revazutd), in 1999, ,,Psihologia mecanismelor cognitive”, publicaté de Mielu Ziate, la Editura Polirom, in 1999, .,Temeiuri ale cognitiei. Cum este modelata mintea de catre comportamentul teleologic”, publicaté de Radu J, Bogdan, in Editura All, in 1998, si incd multe altele, in care, cu sau fara referire la problematica ridicaté de PC si in LR, viziunea cognitivista odoblejiana este reluati si dezvoltaté ". Aceasté sumara referire, asa zicand de istoriografie romaneasca recent a temei, ca si numérul impresionant de lucrari de pedagogie, psihologie, ciberneticd, logic&, lingvistica si semiotica in care se prezinti sau se reiau problemele procesualitatii cognitive au determinat pe autorul acestor randuri si reaminteasch opiniei stiintifice unele dintre mentiunile odoblejiene, care-! acrediteaza pe autoru! PC si LR fie si numai ca precursor roman in cele douad domenii — de psihologie gi de logica - ale rationalitatii stiintifice a procesualitatii cognitive. Cuprins. Incé de la decelarea diviziunilor psihicului dinamic, §t. O. mentioneaz4, in PC + pe de o parte, peste 70 de categorii de fenomene psihice ale cunoasterii: senzafii, evocare, ipoteza, criterii, dihotomie, antagonisme, alternanta, exclusivism, introspectie, constiinta, disonanga, determinatie, comparatie, judecati, adevar, eroare, iluzie, antrenament, memorie, atentie, hedonism, vis 5.a., dar gi interactiuni, ca: reversibilitate cognitiv- afectiva, cognitiv- reactiva ori invers, afectiv- cognitiva, afectiv reactiva, reactiv- cognitiva, reactiv- afectivi. Revenind, dupa aproape patru decenii, la originile teoriei consonantiste a cunoasterii, St. O. explica: ,,Am pomnit din strafundurile cele mai adanc, mai cetoase, ale mintii si gandirii, de fa subiectivismul cel mai accentuat, pentru ca sa ajung la cel mai inalt grad de obiectivitate, realitate si materialitate, culminand cu mecanizarea si materializarea gandirii.la mecanizarea gandirii fiind condus.de ctre tezele fundamentale adoptate: mecanizarea gandirii era punctul lor comun de convergenti. Am intuit aceasti idee o data cu dihotomizarile si o daté cu combinarile binare — operatii, pentru mine, fundamentale, efectuate mecanic, si care aduceau 0 mare simplificare a mecanismului logic. Reusita mecanizarii era un criteriu de verificare pentru conceptiile mele fogice si psihologice - o proba ideal de veridicitate la care nu puteamrenunta..Mecanizarea gindirii,.venea ca un pisc si 0 incununare..a fizicismului psihologic si ultima sa concluzie” “in conceperea LR, pe de alt parte, St. O° avea ca obiectiv ,,gandirea si gandurile, dar cu toate ce(le) ce tin de ele, urmarindu-le ca atare..in psihologie, in fiziologia cerebrala si in lumea dinafard, pe de o parte; urmérindu-le, pe de alt& parte, in consecintele si efectele lor - in vorbire, in gramatica, in geometric, in aritmetic’, in cercetarea stiintifica, in toate stiintete” ““(sublinierile fi apartin lui St. O.). Acreditand c& exist’ in gindire o lege a optimizarii, gandirea alegind calea cea mai mai directa, mai ,economica”, mai natural, mai rapida, mai simpla, mai uzuala, $t. O. postuleazi ci, operational vorbind, gindirea trebuie infeleasa atat ca proces ~ logic gi psihologic ~ ca senzatii, intuitii, perceptii, aperceptii, cat si prin produsele/rezultatele sale: notiuni, judecati, silogisme, sisteme etc, ",Problema centrala a logicii, in spiritul LR odoblejiene, este si ghiceascd — st deduc& ce se ascunde dincolo de cuvinte si propozitii, dincolo de calculul matematic. in acest scop, ea trebuie si treacd in revista si si analizeze gramatica si matematica, si demonteze si si descrie (in limbajul natural, obisnuit, n.n., 1-C.) complicatele lor mecanisme..si incerce si le reduc& la notiuni mai simple, si le condenseze, si le abstractizeze, si le sintetizeze, si le clasifice intr-o ordine..cat_m: coerent si mai natural” “ LR propune logicii si nu inceapa cu nofiunile, ci ,,mult mai de jos”, cu imaginile, senzatiile, urmérindu-le in lumea fizica, si si nu se opreasca la notiuni, ci, trecind dincoto de ele, la clase, la toatl memoria, la obiectele gandirii, ca ,,materii prime” pentru noi gindiri. ,,Se cer, conchide $t.0., legate, echivalate, sintetizate nu numai actiunile logice intre ele, ci si gandirea cu _materia_ei”, pentru ci .gandurile fac gandire,iargandirea, fa randul ei, ginduri noi”(sublinierile ii aparfin iui $t.0.) Patrunzind in imtimitatea proceselor gandirii, $t. O. explic& in LR: ,,memorial, mintea curge dinspre trecut..spre prezent”, dinspre necunoscut spre cunoscut, ,,mintea fuge de deosebire gi aleargi dupa aseminare” (parafrazandu-! pe autor, decoleaza de pe platoul deosebirilor, in cAmpia aseminirilor), ,,dinspre heterogen spre omogen”. Dar ,asemanarile fin balanta mintii in echilibru si nemigcare. Numai deosebirile pun in miscare balanta mintii, Contradictia (insa, metamorfozeazi deindata $t. O.!) este capsa care pune in migcare ideile si aprinde flacara gandirii”. $i mai departe, ne atrage atentia $t. O,, ideile trezite se interinfluienteaza, vibreaz’ simultan: ,,ideea vibranta, ludnd contact cu ideile concomitent vibrante..face s& vibreze din ele numai partile asemanatoare cu ea insigi..scoate, astfel, in relief asemfnirile cu ea insdgi” pentru c& ,,numai_ partile asemanatoare vibreazi cu maximum de amplitudine”. Dar influienta este reciproca: ideea vibranta le influenteaz’ pe toate celelalte, si este influentata de toate celelalte acesta este ,,insusi mecanismul de producere a conceptului”™, Aceasta, pentru cA, in viziunea lui $t.0., logica, impreuna cu psihologia cunoasterii umane, studiaza ,,mai ales gandirea sistematica gi sistematizata”™". ar mai departe, St.O. precizeaza: ,,Interesul nostru este (de aceea)..sa concepem un lucru in cat mai multe feluri, (pe cat posibil, n.n., LLC.) in toate felurile posibile”™*. Pentru a ajunge acolo, insd, trebuie parcurs un drum anevoios, nu rareori sinuos. esualitatea_cognitiei/cunoasterii trece prin LPomité de la consonante gi rezonatori, pros criterii (puncte de vedere), categorii, principii prime (conceptele cele mai generale). Taporturi(categorii interne, reprezentative, generate de ,,simtul consonantei”), selectii (aperceptive si de abstractie), evocari (prin imaginatie si judecata), sinteze (intuitive, perceptive, asociative, inductive, de generalizare, simbolizare, conceptualizare, clasificare, convergind spre definitii). Sinteza de definitie foloseste comparatia, analiza, discernamantul, separarea empiric& si notional’, caracterizarea, diviziunea, deductia, convergand spre concret gi exemplificare, rationamentul sitogistic * 2. Primele produse/rezultate ale procesualititii cognitiei/cunoasterii sunt:(1)cele ale sintezei (conceptul, clasa/clasificarea/sistematizarea logic gi schema) si (2)cele ale analizei (atributele!calitatile/caracterele/proprietatile logice si diversitatea exemplarelor, parfilor, variet&tilor sferei/sferelor notionale)."* Astfel, procesualitatea psiho-cognitiva se constituie, in spiritul consonanjei odoblejiene, ca un neincetat efort intelectual/mental: in primul rind, un efort de imaginatie/inspiratie/inventie sustinut de conjecturi/ipoteze, ,,cenzurat” de spiritul critic, de teste, de afirmare-confirmare de contestare-infirmare-negare, penduland, prin incercari, intre eroare si adevar wi Produsele/rezultatele procesualitiii psiho-cognitive acoper’, practic, intreaga_substanti_a consonantismului sublectiv, in focarul cdruia se afla insigi cunoasterea, congtiinja si constiinja de sine, apoi intreg arsenalul legilor si aplicatiilor, indeosebi, in ceea ce intereseazi problematica acestor randuri, stiinta, consideraté succint de $t. O. capitalul spiritual al individului sau al societatii, cunoasterea consonantizata, memoria sintetizata, sistematizata, ,,artele logice”, iar dupa opinia noastra, apoteotic, arta de a crea, La randul ei, LR acrediteaza logicit ,,intregul domeniu al cunoasterii, dandu-si mana cu psihologia, dar fara a se confunda cu ea (intrucdt, find logica)..intreprinde acest studiu dintr-un. punct de vedere al sau propriu, si folosind metodele sale specifice”. In viziunea LR, ..logica este stiinja, care foloseste din plin modelele ~ modele multiple, dar cu precadere modelul gramatical, modelul geometric si modelut matematic, care ii sunt, oarecum, definitorii”*" (sublinierea fi apartine lui $t.0.) Cat priveste rezultatele procesualitatii logico- cognitive, acestea acopera universul principiilor (.legile care pornese, duc si conduc gandirea”) si conceptiilor logice (indeosebi, in ceea ce priveste tematica acestor randuri, metodele mecanice de fabricare in serie a concepfiitor logice) ** Apoteoza contributiel lui St. O. la elaborarea rationalitatii stiintifice a procesualitatii cognitive se afla, in PC, in capitolul Arta de a crea (euristica), iar in LR in partea finald a paragrafului intitulat de ingrijitorul edifiei ,Cum se vor labora conceptiile logice in viitor”, indeosebi in partea finald, care este un corespondent al regulilor (legilor) creafiei din PC. Se angajeazA in acest proces: legea compensatiei (a concentrarii), legea alternanfei (teoriei cu practica, speculatiei cu aplicatia, stinfei cu arta!), legea antrenamentului (Intrucdt creatia este un proces evolutiv), legea reversibilitatii (pentru a crea instrumentat — materializat, mecanizat). Concluzia este de o uluitoare simplitate, o simplitate ,.grea”, dobandita din abordarea complexd — de simplexitate, s-ar putea, deci, spune: ,,o bund parte a genialitatii este de natura tehnical Aceast& parte o putem invata”, pentru ca nu este suficienté cunoasterea principiilor generale ale artei de a crea; principiile trebuie ,s fie exersate pana la automatizare, pana la insusirea lor ca pe niste obisnuinte firesti, pana vom face din ele a doua noastra natura” “ (sublinierea il apartine lui St. O.), Sugestia lui $t, O. este cA astfel a prezentat elementele constitutive ale unel ,,masini psibice”,de fabricat idei! ™" Este justificata considerafia ingrijitorului editiei in limba romana a PC, corespunzitar careia, astfel (Stefan) Odobleja elaboreazd un autentic indreptar de psihopedagogie a creativititi, un instrument perfect valabil si-n (sic!) prezent, cdnd se pune un accent deosebit pe gisirea cAilor de valorificare a resurselor creative ale personalitatit si grupului social” **, Ultimele cuvinte ale ,,Introducerii in LR” sunt c& trebuie sa cdutam cu bund stiinfa noi conceptii inspirate din lumea fizic’, si ct mai multe si oricdt de indraznete ar (putea) fi ele, procedand apoi, bineingeles, la 0 cercetare critica a for, la 0 verificare in kumina faptelor” Concluzia randurilor de mai sus ar indreptati premisa c& Stefan Odobleja se poate numéra macar printre precursorii romani ai celor dou’ domenii de rationalitate stiintifica a procesualitatit cognitive, iar cele dowd lucrari capitale ale sale, schitele introductive de PC si LR, s-ar putea considera adevarate pietre de hotar in constituirea acestei rationalitati stiinfifice. 6' Dupii cum se stic, atét PC. cat si LR sunt opere abia inceputc. Dupi cum scrie insugi autorul. in PC: aceasta carte este mai curdnd o tablé de materi, un repertoriu sa (un) dictionar de psihologie, un plan general pentru un mare ~-Tratat de psihotogie”, care ar trebui s4 cuprinda XX-XXX de volume” (Psihologia consonantista, Editura stingifica si enciclopedic’ Bucuresti. 1982. p. 660). Cat priveste LR. aga cum precizeazs Alexandru Surdu, ingrijitora lucrarit --Stefan Odobleja, Introducere in Logica rezonantei” (Scrisul Romanesc, Craiova. 1984), in studiul introductiv. la p. 14; ..S-a crezut ii este vorba despre o Iucrare terminatd, pregititd pentru tipar. Lucrarea nu s-a gisit sia sfarsit prin a fi considerata pierdutd..Coea ce exista realmente este MANUSCRISUL .Titllul este simplu: LOGICA. fra nici o altd specificare” (majusculele sunt ale lui Al. Surdu). Astfel, LR, asa cum ni se prezinta in Introducerea amintita, este doar un breviar al unui corpus logicae. un vast tratat de logic’ menit sf catalogheze gi si sistematizeze cunostiinje cente. evidente referitoare la gandire si problemele conexe ei (CF. Stefan Odobleja, Introducere in logica rezonantei, scrieri inedite, Scrisul rominesc, Craiova, 1984, p, 24): * Stefan Odobleja, Psihologia consonamtist’, Editura sliinjifica si enciclopedica, Bucuresti, 1982, p. 188: { Stefan Odableja, introducere in Logica rezonan{ci - serieri inedite, Scrisul romanese, Craiova, 1984, p. $4, 55.56: ‘Este vorba de lucririle menfionate ta nota 1. la care se pot adiuga: ,,Psihologia consonantista si cibemnetica aparuta in Editura Scrisul romanesc in chiar anul morfii hui $LO. , 1978, dar nu mai putin de articolul publicat de §t.O., in Almanahul ,,Tribuna 77°(p, 230-241), inserat in referin(ele bibliografice din tucrarea anterior menfionatd in aceasta not, cu titlul ,.De la psihologia masinista la maginite psihologice zisc si logice, zise gi cibemnetice”. omis. din pacate. de editorii Almanahului clujan, ca gi de articolul odoblejian publicat postum de revista Forum, ny. 3. 1982, sub titi! .-Raportut logicii cu alte stiinfe” ‘Stefan Odobleja, Psihologia consonantista...,1982. p. L44 | Stefan Odobleja, Psihologia consonantisti si cibernetica, Scrisul romanesc, Craiova, 1978, p. 127-128: * Stefan Odobleja, Introducere in logica revonanfei — scrieri inedite.. 1984. p. 25: "CE Ibid. p. 28 -30; ' Wid., p. 31; "Ibid. p. 33: CE Ibid. p. 108: 1 CF Tid. p. 110; “Ct Ibid. p. $4: * Cf. Ibid. p. 155: "CE Stefan Odobleja, Psihologia consonantisti,... 1982. p. 190-237, Cf Ibid. p, 238-24: "CE Ibid. p. 24! | Stefan Odobleja. Introducere.... 1984. p. 44: » CE Thid.. p. 66 ~ 194: CE. Stefan Odobleja, Psihologia consonantista,... 1982. p. 555 “CE Ibid. p. 65 “CE Ibid. p.577; CE Stefan Odobleja, Introducere....1984, p 192 ~ 194:ODOBLEJA $I COMPLEXITATEA Conf.univ.dr, Gheorghe Hie in conditiile in care hiperintegrarea si globalizarea au devenit valori universale, studiul sistemelor mari se impune ca o problematica de cert actualitate. Ca urmare, trasdturile fundamentale ale acestora precum structuralitaiea, operationalitatea, managementul proceselor, securitatea si, mai ales, complexitatea sunt tratate multivalent, procedural si tehnologic, urmérindu-se atat o noua fundamentare teoretica, ct si programatica. in acest context, devine deosebit de interesanti si de actuala si contributia lui Stefan Odobleja Ia studiul universalitatii, prin dou aspecte esentiale: primul aspect se refera la concepfia sa integratoare privind legile guvernarii naturale, iar al doilea aspect la autoreglajul in conditii complexe, de fapt la cibernetica sistemelor mari Prezentarea acestor aspecte este edificatoare, iar comentariile despre ele devin aproape desuete. Legea echivalentei - cauizalitatea este general ~ legiitura cauza ~ efect este universala = pentru un sistem dat, reactia este proportionala cu actiunea > in condifié diferite (complexe) — la fiecare cauzi exist mai multe efecte posibile, fiecare efect are mai multe cauze posibile; * orice variafie a unei cauze atrage dupa sine variatii concomitente gi consensuale ale efectului Legea echilibrului - cauza este un dezechilibru — efectul este un echilibru - orice denivelare tinde spre nivelare igcare se produce de la rezistenta mai mare fa rezistenté mai micd * in conditii diferite (complexe) ~ elementele se stratificd, se sedimenteazi, se subordoneaz’, iar intregul se ierarhizeaza © adaptarea este 0 trecere de la dezcchitibru fa echi Legea compensatiei = concordanta dintre partile unui intreg - _ pierderile unora dintre parti se regasesc in castigurile celovialte parti complesitatea compensatiei ~ partile sunt in permanent concurenti fiecare functie igi cauta identitatea dezorganizarea produce efecte negative pentru toate partile diminuarile functionale locale determina suprasolicitari functionale. eeeLegea reactiei - orice reactie exterioara are urmiri de conservare a echilibrului - feactia este o compensatie, o replic&, o actiune in sens contrar * complexitatea reactiei — peste un anumit prag efectul cauzei este inlocuit de un alt efect peste un prag maxim efectul nu mai este proportional cu cauza Legea oscilatie = reprezinté un proces de echilibru prin taton’ri, = este o migcare pe loc; * complexitatea oscilatiei — orice actiune da nastere unui gir de actiuni, cea ce produce 0 multitudine de oscilatii in jurul unui centru de echilibru * oscilatiile pot fi analizate sau intretinute. Legea reversibilitatii ~ este 0 oscilatie intre doua stiri ce se determina reciproc una pe cealaltd; - este un cuplu alternant in dou’ sensuri: complexitatea reversibilititii — succesiunea cauzi — efect este vaga in timp; orice cauza poate fi perceputa si ca efect si invers, Legea inertiei ~ © actiune declansata se poate diminua dar are tendinta de persistenta, + automatizarea si obignuinta sunt efecte directe ale inestiei * complexitatea inertiei ~ inertiile benefice trebuie antrenate si stimulate ° pentru a se produce, fiecare fenomen trebuie si treaci de pragul minim al sensibilizirit + varietatea de iegire nu se produce decat in condifiile in care varietatea de intrare a depasit pragul de sensibilitate * varietitile de intrare pot avea si efect cumulativ fapt ce produce un efect dup’ mai multe repetitii sau ca urmare a actiutnii prelungite Legile finaliste ~ _ otice functie, orice senzatie, orice reactie se produce in vederea unui anumit scop * complexitatea finalititii - reactia este guvernata intotdeauna de cel mai mare interes * reactia de proba, de incercare sau de experimentare este un element de adaptarea * in orice moment al ciclului de viata sistemut isi ajusteazé capacitatile de reactie dupa nevoi Cea mai elocventa demonstratie a surprinderii complexitatiio descoperim la Odobleja in Prezentarea legilor reactiilor, ca o sinteza a tot ceea ce inseamna reactie complexd ~ echilibru ~ evolutie gi involutie: ~ _ iradiere ~ cresterea intensitatii unei reactii o face tot mai putin locald; ~ _adaptarea ~ reglajul este direct proportional cu resursele: = compensare ~ involuntarizarea actiunii (ca impunere) duce la micgorarea consumului energetic al acesteia; - calitate —suma calitafilor unei actiuni este o invarianta- — substituirea ~ inlaturarea unej cauze poate declanga aparitia altei cauze; - reactie ~ antagonicul este urmat de o reactie sporit’, = oscilatie - fiecare migcare alterneazi_cu o pauzd necesar§ pentru refacere; = reversibilitate — actiunea presupune cunoastere; - involuntaritatea — automatizarea impune coborarea la extrem a pragului de sensibilizare, - minimul — pentru un efect este necesar un minim de cauza, - maximul ~ stimulul ce depgeste pragul maxim al sensibilit’tii provoaca blocare, = consonanté - de clausarea unei reactii la un element provoacd reactii sinergetice la celelalte elemente din intreg; = optimul — reprezinta punctul maxim de cauze favorizante pentru o actiune (efect), in concluzie. desi Odobleja nu abordeaza direct problema complexit&tii, aceasta este atot prezenti in Psihologia consonantista, este analizat’ prin comportament, influent’, si, mai ales, prin relatiile intreg ~ componente, cauzi ~ efect, actiune — reacfie, echilibru - dezechilibru, hiperintegrare in mediu si capacitatea de autoreglare si adaptare Lucrarea lui Odobleja, si in problema complexitafii, vorheste de la sine gi reprezint’ o contributie stiintifica de mare valoare si, mai ales, de pionierat in domeniu Aducandu-i, in acest fel, un modest omagiu si nu ne plecim capul in fata omului Odobleja, ci si-i promovam ideile, stiinta sa consonantista, care este stiinfa reactiei, autoreglajului, devenirit gi deci a ciberneticiiUNELE CONSIDERATIT PARALELE LA CENTENARUL CELOR DOI ROMANI VESTITI: DR. STEFAN ODOBLEJA, PRECURSORUL CIBERNETICII DR. ING. LON ST. BASGAN- UN INOVATOR DE GENIU Dr.ing. Stefan Tudor Comisia de Cibernetica SocioEconomica I. in ziarele din vara anului 2002 se relateazé cA mii de negri americani s-au reunit la jumatatea luni august, intr-o simbatd, pe peluza din fata Capitoliului din Washingon, pentru a cere reparatii morale si compensatii financiare in numele strmosilor Jor, victime ale sclaviei gi segregirii rasiale in SUA. Manifestatia a reunit diferite organizatii, mai ales ,.National Coalition of Blacks for Reparations in America ,N’Cobra), ,Natiunea Islamului”, a liderului negra musulman Louis Farraankh, .,The New Black Panter Party”. in martie trecut, negrii americani au Jansat la New York, prima campanic judiciara impotriva companiilor care s-ar fi imbogiatit de pe urma sclaviei, valoarea muncii neremunerate fiind estimata la 1,4 trilioane de dolari 2. in unele emisiuni de la radio, in problema de mai sus s-a vehiculat o suma de zece mii de miliarde dolari SUA. 3. La peste un seco! de la brevetarea telefonului, Congresul SUA @ recunoscut paternitatea oficiala pe numele adevaratului creator si oamenii vor sti c& nu Graham Bell a adus contribufia la progresul omenirii iar istoria tehnicii este necesar s& fie rescris4 gi insusita de noi toti_ si urmasii_urmagilor nostri, Inventatorul telefonului este Antonio Meucci conform recunoasterii Congresului Americii 4. fn Roma n anul 1902 s-au nascut dou’ personalitati de valoare mondiala: Stefan ODOBLEJA gi fon St BASGAN S. intamptarea face ci am crescut in Focyani si, copil fiind, am cunoscut pe parintele ~ Preotul Stefan BASGAN tatil Jui lon St BASGAN gi cred c4 lam vazut in curtea casei parintesti pe inventator pe Kinga o masina aldturi de copiit lui, Strada respectiva din Focsani poarta acum numele savantului 6. La Scoala nr.2 din Focsani unde am invatat doar un singur an ~ in clasa a anului 2002 ~ a avut loc atribuirea pumelui savantului Scoala ,Dr. ing, lon BASGAN 7. intamplarea face ca sotia mea s& aibé rude in satul Izvorul Anestilor din judetul Mehedinti si am avut ocazia st cunosc scoala unde a invafat viitorul mare savant Stefan ODOBLEJA, micupul elev venea in fiecare zi dintr-un edtun apropiat — Hofu ~ iar consitenii sai mi-au povestit lucruri deosebit de interesante despre viata si, mai ales, greutajile pe care le-a intampinat in ultimii ani de existenjé. Din pacate, scoala in care a invatat un mare savant nu a capatat numele siu in ultimii ani. Probabil ci o coloand motorizata pentru transportul elevilor spre comuna Livezile din Mehedinii va capata o denumire semnificativa daca nici satului Izverul Anestilor nu i se certifici din nou statutul de comund spre care oamenii tanjesc cu speranta8. Trebuie recunoscut cd inaintea deschiderii anului scolar 2002/2003, in Bucuresti la liceul $tefan ODOBLEJA a avut loc inaugurarea unui foarte mare local care a acumulat cheltuieli de circa patru milioane dolari SUA si care s-a prezentat o lectie ultra modern’ cu mijloace cibernetice de ultima or’. 9, Exist& numeroase institutii care poarta numele lui Stefan ODOBLEJA si chiar o Academie 10, Recent a aparut Fundatia ,,fon BASGAN” — in memoria stralucitului inventator Dr. Ing. lon BASGAN- fondata in 1998. 11. La Muzeul de Istorie a Petrolului din Ploiesti exist& un stand inchinat inventatorului dr ing. Ion BASGAN. 12. La Muzeu! Tehnic ,.Dimitie Leonida”, din Bucuresti exist standul inventatorului dr. ing. lon BASGAN 13. La 19 VI.2002 AGIR a organizat ~ sub conducerea dr. ing. Mihai Mihaita ~ presedintele AGIR - Simpozionul inchinat Centenarului ring fon BASGAN unde urmagul Ton 1 BASGAN Jr., membru fondator, primul Presedinte al Fundatiei a prezentat raportul principal al manifestarii. 14. La Centenar a fost expus ~ in sala Agir- bustul lui lon BASGAN. 15, Cu ani in urma, din cimitirul din Drobeta-Turnu Severin a fost furat bustul de la mormantul lui Stefan ODOBLEJA. 16. Unul dintre vorbitorii de la sala AGIR ~ deputatul reprezentant al etnicilor evrei din Romania, Dorel Dorian a subliniat contributia esentiata a inventiei lui fon ST. BASGAN asupra fascismului in cel de-al doilea razboi mondial. 17. Pe baza celor cunoscute pana in prezent si celor ce se pot detalia in viitor putem conchide cé Stefan ODOBLEJA avut o contributie notabila la aplicafiile cibernetice puse in vatoare de specialistii americani care si-au insusit preceptele de baza ale psihologiei consonantice si s-a reusit - si pe aceasta cale - scurtarea conflagratiei mondiale. 18. La 13 noiembrie 1990 Stefan ODOBLESA a fost inclus (post mortem) ales al Academiei Romane. 19, Datorita neapartenentei la partidu! de putere, in timpul dictaturii comuniste, Ion St. BASGAN nu a putut deveni presedinte al Academiei Romane 20. Opera lui Stefan ODOBLEJA a fost editatd la Paris in vremuri tulburi si — desi cunoscuta chiar si in America ... - nu a fost difuzata nici in primii ani dupa razboi... Editia de baza in limba romana privind psihologia consonantista a fost publicata in anu! 1978, 21. Brevetele lui lon St. BASGAN au aparut in anii 1934 in Romania si in 1937 si 1970 in SUA, multe alte tari ~ printre care URSS gi numeroase tiri arabe gi mari furnizoare de petrol au folosit fraudulos ideile inventatorului roman. 22. Mostenirea stiintificd actuali ODOBLEJA — WIENER este prezentaté pe mapamond si este de datoria romanilor sa se intensifice punerea in valoare a meritelor compatriotului nostru, 23. Zestrea mondiala aparuta datorita lui lon St. BASGAN este imensa dar a fost pusd in valoare cu precddere de c&tre petrolistii americani care datoreaz’ mostenitorilor romani o nota de plata fabuloasd — dupa cum vom mai arata mai departe 24, Cunoscutul cAlator mondial loan Grigorescu spunea intr-un film despre Biblioteca Congresului SUA c& acolo a fost adus ca dar bustul lui Lajos Kessuth Cred c& este cazul ca in galeria oamenilor de vazi care au facut ceva pentru America si fie si generalul Pomut (care a cumparat Alaska de la rusi) si alti doi romani — busturile lor, Stefan ODOBLEJA gi Ion St BASGAN25. Ne amintim c& inainte de 1989 conducerea Romaniei a fost onorata cu ,Medalia Norbert WIENER” ~ si asta cu ocazia unui mare congres international care s-a desfigurat in tara noastra, O replicé metitorie pe deplin fundamentata ar fi initierea unei medalii de merit mondial — MMM Stefan ODOBLEJA- care ar putea fi pusa in valoare cu contributie a noii oligarhii informatice din Romania, sub egida Academiei Romane. 26. Brevetele de inventii din anii 1934, 1937 si 1970 ale lui Ton St, BASGAN au revolutionat forajul si domeniul exploatarii petroliere si punerea in valoare a resurselor hidraulice pe zone mari - Saltul tehnologic la scar’ mondiala datorita lui [on St BASGAN reprezint spirale in plus de la reformulari privind Principiul lui Arhimede la boom-ul industriei petroliere americane dupa 1937, care au permis aplicarea sonic in forajul rotopercutant cu efect de dinamita pe noi trepte valorice echivalente cu opera lui NOBEL. lata pasul pentru trecerea ca in cazul Efectului BASGAN sa se puna in valoare Premiul BASGAN in domenii ce pot fi stabilite de Fundatia lon BASGAN”. Premiul poate fi alimentat din cele mai diverse surse despre care se va vorbi mai departe. Ar fi o relansare nobila pentru valentele rominesti la scaré mondial contemporani 27. impiratul Traian a fost interesat de aurul din muntii Apuseni la care a ajuns prin Oltenia si Defileul Jiului la exploatari aurifere deja de peste doua mii de ani. Romanii au carat din Dacia Felix 165 tone de aur si 1500 tone de argint. 28. Trei sute de ani dupa Hristos au fost ridicate sute de catedrale in Vestul Europei cu aur rispandit de romani 29, Imperiul Austro-Ungar a extras din vechile pamanturi ale Daciei Felix cel putin 0 suta de tone de aur. 30. Tezaurul romanesc aflat ,.in pastrare” la rugi 93,000 tone aur (Alexandru Barlideanu). 31. ,,Ceea ce reprezint 150 milioane de dolari” (comp! afirma lui AL Barladeanu — din stenograma sedinjei Comitetului de 1 septembrie 1965); echivalent 1,61 USA/gram aur 32. In luna decembrie 2001 rezerva de aur a Roméniei era de 105,2 tone aur la 8,923 USA/gram aur, 33. La 3.1X.2002 rezerva de aur crescuse la 105,5 tone aur iar echivalentul integral in aur al rezervelor BNR era de 657 tone aur, preful era de 10,04 USA/gram aur. 34, La 15 ianuarie 2002 in cadrul Comisiei de Ciberneticd SocioEconomica a fost Prezentaté ,NOTA PRO-MEMORIA in vederea reluarii actualizate si atragerii unor resurse noi din fondul de acumulare Doctor Inginer lon BASGAN, rezultat din aplicarea inventiilor privind forajul rotopercutant cu prajini yrele la mare adancime dupa anul 1937 in SUA, pentru progresul dorit Romaniei si accelerarea participarii in structurile euroatlantice (Teze propuse spre dezbatere)” — Autor: Doctor inginer Stefan Tudor ~ tel. 665,46.87 35. La 24 ianuarie 2002 am intocmit o Nota in 10 puncte care a fost depusa la Guvernul Roméniei Secretariatul General, Registratura Generali cu nr 17/923 din 25 01.2002 (+Anexa) 36, La 28.01.2002 cu nr 01622 materialul prezentat la Comisia de Cibernetica SocioEconomica (7 pagini) (vidi pet. 34 de mai sus) plus NOTA (10 puncte) a fost depus si sa primit bonul de inregistrare ,PRESEDINTELE ROMANIE] ~ Probleme cetijenesti (Audiente si Petigii) nr. 01622 ziua 28 luna 01 anul 2002. . 37. In viaf& find, la momentul respectiv, dr.ing ton St BASGAN relata cA la nivel international avantajele forajului perfectionat au adus dupa 1937 in America venituri de peste 30 miliarde USD- initial apreciate de experti straini dar in mod realist diminuate la peste 8 miliarde rea tui N. Ceausescu ~ vidi xecutiv al CC al PCR din siuaUSD in anu! 1965. Aceasta echivaleaza cu 1.000 tone aur la 8 USD/gram (sa repetim: una mie tone de aur in 1965...!...) 38. Vechea oranduire a intocmit un dosar la nivelul MAE in anul 1953. 39. Vechea oranduire a alocat un fond de 200.000 USD pentru dr.ing. Ion ST. BASGAN. pentru initierea unor procese in SUA. 40. Creantele trebuie recuperate de la 150-200 firme din SUA. 41. in anul 1997, la Editura RAPANA din Bucuresti a aparut volumul ,ION BASGAN — un inyentator de geniu” — autor dr. Gabriel I. Nastase. Lucrarea a fost realizata cu sprijinul R.A. PETROM, SC SOMETRA- Copsa Mica; SC INAS SA Craiova, SC ROMEXPO Bucuresti, SC DOUBLET SA Bucuresti; SC ROMLUX - Targoviste. 42. Lucrarea are 320 de pagini, s-a vandut in anul 1997 la pretul de 20.000 lei in librarie; toate drepturile rezervate apartin Editurii RAPANA 43. Expertiza vest-germand acuta sub egida Dresdner Bank a fost sprijinita de grupul de presi Springer care a publicat in ziarul german Bild an Sontag din 25/26 mai 1969 0 pagina intreaga iar in volumul citat la paginile 83-86 se prezinta NOTA DOCUMENTARA: ‘7/S/c 10% drepturi de autor din suma economisita de 27.932.307.655, - ...2.795.230.765, - USD TISId S% dobanda pe an X 22 1/2 ani= 112,5%. . 3.142.384.605, USD. (plus alte cote) 7/5/h Pretentia legala globala 8,634.836.458, -USD 44, Aceasti calculatie global privind metri forati in SUA se extinde asupra tuturor Societitilor Petrolifere, care au efectuat forajele direct sau indirect 45. Aceasta pretentie legalé global in suma de 8.634.836.458 USD se ridica fata de cele cca 150-200 societati petrolifere americane, in mod procentual, dup metrajul efectiv forat de ele 46. Din NOTA DOCUMENTARA rezulta ca s-a alocat dobinda simpla de 5% pe o perioada de 22 1/2 ani (protectie a brevetului pana in anul 1965) 47, Pentru perioada ulterioara 1965-2005 (40 ani) cu dobanda simpla de 5% se ajunge la triplarea sume’ inigiale: 24.964 509.374 USD. 48, La pretul aurului in anul 2000 de 8 USD / gram aur, rezult& ta volumul creantei Anul 1965 Anul 2000 A 05 1.079.354.5857 tone aur 2. 968,225.032 tone aur 3.120.563.761 tone aur 49. La nivelul anului 1965 uzufructul ~ la nivelul dobanzii simple de 5% - este de SO tone aur/an gi se mentine in fiecare din acesti 40 de ani. (La o apreciere a fondului initial de 1.000 tone aur la un pret de 8 USD/gram aur.) 50. La nivelul anului 2005 se presupune c& urma i trebuit si fi primit deja peste doud mii tone de aur 51, Calculele privind creantele respective chiar gi la dobanda simpla sunt mai complicate si legate de evolutia posibilitatilor de recuperare si repatriere fie ele si partiale 52, Tabelele financiare specifice arata ce devine un leu cu _dobénd’ compus, dupa un numér oarecare de ani romani ai dr.ing. lon St. BASGAN arDobanda compusa 3% 5% Ani 1 1,0300 000 1,0500 000 10 1,3439 1638 1,6288 9463 20 1,8061 1423 2,6532 9771 30 12,4272 6247 4,3219 4238 40 3,2620 3779 7,0399 8871 45 3,7815 9584 8,9850 0779 50. 4,3839 0602 11, 4473 9978 in mod corespunzator masa aurului de la inceputul perioadei de referinta se multiplica pe baza tabelului de mai sus 53. Au existat diferite propuneri pentru recuperarea drepturilor de catre urmasii romani printre care gi trecerea autorului — pe atunci ined in viatd ~ la cet&fenia Statului Israel 54. Un mare sustinator al cauzei geniului tehnic romnesc este marele tribun Adrian Paunescu — atat inainte de 1989 cat si acum prin articole publicate in presa din tara. Ca om care gi altidati a fost si cunoasc& realititile americane ar putea fi un susfindtor vehement al cauzei romanesti 55. Recent suflarea romAneascd a aflat de la Premierul Adrian Nastase ci a reusit si rezolve problema datoriei Romaniei faya de Suedia datand din anul 1929, al tratative cu partenerii suedezi doar intr-un sfert de or& ,.. Dac& socotim cd o ord se plateste unui avocat american cy 400 USD rezulté ci tratativele pentru 0 suti dou zeci milioane de USD ne-ar costa doar 0 su USD... In mod corespunzitor se pot face calculele pentru creanjele romanesti i BASGAN. 56. Evaluarea beneficiilor in cazul industriei petrolifere din Romania ar trebui extinse la toate sondele care au depigit 0 adancime convenita de specialisti ~ de la care aplicarea concreti a metodelor puse in valoare in cazul Efectului BASGAN da rezultate — precum si la toat productia de prajini grele de foraj, sonde de mare adancime cu toate utilajele folosite in tard sau exportate inainte de 1989 se public& in ziare c& noi am exportat instalafii pentru forat la adancimea de 12,000 metti pentru sonde in Extremul Orient din fosta URSS. 57. Asa cum se strang diferite fonduri pentru fiecare litru de fei gi se acumuteazi pentiu scopuri precise tot asa trebuie stranse fonduri penira sustinerea cauzei recuperaii daivrilion de ta datornicii americani gi aljii pe baza unor actiuni concenirate de un for najionai gi in sprijinut mostenitorilor BASGAN pentru investitii in tara noastra gi oriunde are interese Romania. 58. Inainte de anul 1989 s-a intervenit la nivel foarte inalt in Romania si SUA. La urma urmelor, astazi in SUA se gaseste 0 conducere cu foarte mati interese in domeniul petrotutui si limbajul cifrelor poate fi folosit in interes reciproc pentru tari din aceiasi comunitate59. Am primit o hartie cu antet si stema: . »RESEDINTELE ROMANIE[ 01622 29 5 PROBLEME CETATENESTI DPO2/._/...2002 Stimate domnule Stefan Tudor, Am luat cunostinta din memoriul adresa Presedintelui Romniei, Domnul Ton Tliescu, despre solicitarea dumneavoastra Am trimis memoriul la Oficiul Roman pentru Drepturile de Autor, autoritate abilitata cu cercetarea si solutionarea acestor probleme semnalate, cerandu-i si ne transmit decizia luata, ‘Avem incredere ci demersu! dvs, va fi solufionat in conformitate cu legea. Sorin Stefan Stanciz Consilier de Stat. Palatul Cotroceni B-du! Geniului nr. 1-3, Bui 410.38,58 e- mail: procetateanu presidency.ro” 60. Am mai primit o alta misiva .GUVERNUL ROMANIEI OFICIUL ROMAN PENTRU DREPTURILE DE AUTOR sigla ORDA data 01.07.2002 Dlui dring. Stefan Tudor (adresa) loco Urmare adresei dvs catre Pregedintia Romaniei (DP02/01622/2002), trimisd si inregistrata la ORDA sub nr. 1768'2002) va comunicim c& am trimis adresa sus-mentionata Oficiului de Stat pentru Inventii si Marci, nefiind de competenta noastra. esti tel, 01-410.05.81/363 Fax O1- Cu stima, Eugen Vasiliu Director general adj. (LS)" 61._Nu am primit raspuns la materialul transmis direct la REGISTRATURA GENERALA - SECRETARIATUL GENERAL ~ GUVERNUL ROMANIEL 62, OSIM nu a trimis incd un raspuns la propunerea facuta. fe date, functionarii de la Presedintia Tarii nu au rezervat nimic pentru forurile popularizate cA se ocupa de probleme vitale (Consiliu! Consultativ...), CSAT, pentru lectura unor demnitari in frunte cu primul pe lista. 64, Ca_o problema de protocol, la centenarul lui lon BASGAN nu a fost citit cuvenitul mesaj de la un for inalt. 65, Copiii Romaniei ar trebui 4 invete in fiecare an de studiu cate ceva despre geniul lui lon St. BASGAN 66. in viitor vom putea cere ceva Congresului SUA daca, mai intai, problema va fi tratata mai ales la nivelul Parlamentului Roméniei intr-o directie care $4 scoati mai repede tara din saracie iar uzufructul mostenirii lui fon St. BASGAN va fi preluat de mostenitori gi in folosul Romaniei 67. La CENTENARUL LOR DOCTORUL STEFAN ODOBLEJA $I DOCTORUL INGINER ION ST. BASGAN binemeritat’ de la tofi roménii gi de la intreaga omenireDIRECTH IN ACTIVITATEA STHNTIFICA A ACADEMIEI “STEFAN ODOBLEJA” CLASSIFICATION OF ONTOGENETIC GENERATION CYCLES ACCORDING TO ARITHMOKARYOPHASIC STRUCTURE Gavril Acalugaritei Cybernetics Academy ABSTRACT Classifiction of ontogenetic generation cycles (OGC) according to arithmokaryophasic structure will be presented as a) Classification of the OGC according to synchronic and diachronic arithmogenomic structure, b) Classification of the OGC according to synchronic and diachronic arithmokaryonic structure, ©) Classification of the OGC according to arithmokaryophasic structure (synthesis of arithmogenomic with arithmokaryonic structure) 0.INTRODUCTION This paper is mainly based on the following studies: studies on ontogenetic generation cycles (Acalugaritei 1986, 1989, 1990), theory of Acalugaritei networks (Acalugaritei 2002b, in press). The present paper is structured as classification of the OGC according to synchronic and diachronic arithmogenomic structure: classification of the OGC according to synchronic and diachronic arithmokaryonic structure, and classification of the OGC according to synchronic and diachronic arithmokaryophasic structure I. CLASSIFICATION OF THE OGC ACCORDING TO ARITHMOGENOMIC STRUCTURE (Figure 1) - According to synchronic arithmogenomic structure there are: OGC with synchronic homoarithmogenomic structure, OGC with synchronic homeoarithmogenomic structure and OGC with synchronic heteroarithmagenoniie structure, - According to diachronic arithmogenomic structure there are’ OGC with diachronic homoarithmogenomic structure, OGC with diachronic homeoarithmogenomic structure and OGC with diachronic heteroarithmogenomic structure.2. CLASSIFICATION OF THE OGC ACCORDING TO ARITHMOKARYONIC STRUCTURE (Figure 2) - According to synchronic arithmokaryonic structure there are OGC with synchronic homoarithmokaryonic structure, OGC with synchronic homeoarithmokaryonic structure and OGC with synchronic heteroarithmokaryonic structure; - According to diachronic arithmokaryonic structure there are OGC with diachronic homoarithmokaryonic structure, OGC with diachronic homeoarithmokaryonic structure and OGC with diachronic heteroarithmokaryonic structure. 3. CLASSIFICATION OF THE oGCc ACCORDING TO ARITHMOKARYOPHASIC STRUCTURE (SYNTHESIS OF ARITHMOGENOMIC WITH ARITHMOKARYONIC STRUCTURE (Figure 3) - According to synchronic arithmokaryophasic structure there are: OGC with synchronic homoarithmokaryophasie structure, OGC with synchronic —homeoarithmokaryophasic structure and OGC with synchronic heteroarithmokaryophasic structure, - According to diachronic arithmokaryophasic structure there are. OGC with diachronic homoarithmokaryophasic structure, OGC with diachronic homeoarithmokaryophasic structure and OGC with diachronic heteroatithmokaryophasic structure, REFERENCES 1. Acalugaritei G. (1986): “Classification of ontogenetic reproduction”, Acta Biotheoretica, 35, pp. 147-162 2. Acalugaritei G (1989): “Ontogenetic generation cycles”, Romanian J.Geront, Geriatrics, 10, pp.45-53. 3. Acalugaritei G. (1990): “Classification of the ontogenetic generation cycles”, Romanian J.Geront.Geriatrics, V1, 1, pp.17-23 4, Acalugaritei G. (2002): “Theory of Acalugaritei networks - 2002b", Marketing ~ Management, Vol.S (in press).diurouafiowysue o1mosyoeIp pue pueY aUO UO oAMNLAS oTtuOUDTOUNYAE WO! LUO) pury 1ayI0 941 J aunty o aimonuis uds Suoure suoHEpas 0} Bupaosav HO ay Jo uoNLsy BLO a 4 aumonas ortmousfouny EOIN squonsuss | sumgnns poout | utrosausg snuoustiout is 1uos4j2UAg amnnis ouwouasounpeo19}a roast unions oqurousdounpueouroy, SmMoH2eIC, ats” gnuouasout(jewi129) puey saxpo ayp uo aunionas sIuOKeyOUNpLEE oTuOAyDeIp puE pueY auO UO aINFONUIs TUOAIPYOUYLE S1uOIOUAS HuOWE sUOTB.aI 01 SuIPIO99 JHO aY1 Jo HOHROY!SSE|D 2 aandey amions + + + atu eyounpiLswos010%4 \ mOATUAS | aman * + + + 2quo ceyounpiueoawoy MuoRNKS, amor + + + atuo ceyounusvouioy ouoryousg | t aan | aquosseyou Sun yOnTS aunjoms | aunjonys MONKS, caryoungnzeor91ay to GreyounueooutOY awodeyounpuvowoy — | camonng tuompercr onion ourodaeyounysue Ll nosyoeig(jeuSuK) puey 10420 ay) Uo aimionns siseqdoXieyoUNpUE STuORYDeIp pue Puey 9UO UO aMaNNs D1SeYdoAUPYOUIYTLIE a1UOIYOUAS RUOWL SUONL[As OF FUIPIO99x JOO ay Jo VORWAYISSE} faundig aunyoruis + + + axseydo Geyouny seos9194 muonouss, + + + arserydo.Creyourynavoouoy, aon US aumanus + + + ayseycocmryounpisro.ogy aquoayu i Sani t arstydoceyounpie aumonns aamonuis qu0sto04§ aisydokyounpteox19y arsed. amjonns oenypeig aysiydodaeyounpa | otuoayoriq.ACTIVITATEA STIINTIFICA A SECTIEI “BIOMATEMATICA” DIN CADRUL ACADEMIE! DE CIBERNETICA “STEFAN ODOBLEJA” Sorin Baiculescu Coordonator al Sectiei Biomatematica Academia de Cibernetica Sectia de Biomatematica existenta in cadrul Academiei de Cibernetica are ca activitate cercetarea si dezvoltarea in stiinte fizice si naturale,realizata prin modelare matematica. In cadrul acesteia exista directii_ complementare,interdisciplinare stiintelor biologice,cibernetice, _ informationale,biofizice,medicale, antropologice,ecologice,s.a Relatia cercetare-modelare este abor- data prin modelarea matematica a sistemelor biologice si medicaleanalize de biodinamicitateoptimizare si aplicatit. variationale,cuantificarea informationala a biosistemelor,transmiterea si prelu- crarea bioinformatiei,biostatistica si cronobiologia seriilor de date biomedicale, studiul bioma- tematic-biofizic-biocibernetic al diferitelor sisteme apartinind fiintei_ ~umane —(psitto-neuro-endo- _crin,cardio- vascular,s.a)analiza proceselor sociale si de interfata prin utilizarea antropologiei_ma- tematice analiza fenomenologica a proceselor cognitive.de autoorganizare,complexitate,reglaj si stabilitate(biologica,ecologica,medicala,s.a.). Rezultatele obtinute pina in prezent(dintre care unele in colaborare cu colectivul de cerce- tare Dr.C.Guja din cadrul Centrului de Cercetari Antropotogice“Fr.Rainer"al Academiei Romane) au vizat directii stiintifice interdisciplinare cum ar fi:modelarea matematica si cuantificarea infor- mationala a cimpului bioelectromagnetic inregistrat electrografic,analiza simetriei clectrografice prin utilizarea sistemelor fuzzy,controlul si reglajul cibernetic al undelor cerebrale in cadrul anu- mitor afectiuni cerebrale,teoria matematica a dezvoltarii (generarii) celulelor matricei specifice ontogenezei,exprimarea analitica si cuantificarea componentelor hidric,mineral,semiconductor, dielectric apartinind acesteia,retelele ANs (G-Acalugaritei)de evolutie ierarhica multidimensio- nala, cu aplicatie in biologie.utilizarea acestora in contextul teoriei biostructurale Macovschi si in explicarea unor fenomene neuronale si psihice.analiza fenemenologica a unor procese cognitive si de autoorganizare utizindu-se retelele de evolutic ierarhica multidimensionala precum si investiga tiile electrografice Dintre lucrarile realizate,unele au fost comunicate la diferite conferinte inteme si internationale,putindu-se mentiona urmatoarele(anul 2002); aprobata si sus- tinuta ca sesiune in cadrut Congresului Uniunii Internationale de Stiinte Antropologice si Etnolo- gice-IUAES, care a avut loc la Tokyo,in perioada?: 27Septembrie2002,lucrare comunicata in cadrut celui de al 7-lea Congres International de Cibernetica,Stiinta Computerelor si Teoria Sistemelor,care a avut loc in perioada 2-5 Septembrie 2002 la Nitra-Slovaciacomunicata la cel de-al 12-lea Congres al Organizatiei Interna- tionale de Sisteme si Cibernetica,care a avut loc in Pittsburg-USA,in perioada 24-26 martie 2002, Directiile stiintifice principale abordate in aceste lucrari au constat in urmatoarele:-Stabilirea forme analitice a infasuratoarei semnalelor electrografice (strimeri) pentru frontiera suprafetei palmare apartinind fiintei umanewutilizindu-se functiile analitice aproape peste tot perio dice.Imaginea electrografica, determinata atit in polaritate pozitiva cit si negativa,forma grafica a infasuratoarei precum si expresia sa analitica sunt aratate in continuare Figl Imaginea electrografica a palmei. in polaritate pozitiva si negativa infasuratoare : — q-numarul de subiecti analizati strimeri punct de diviziune “t; 7 element “je tungime”p” Fig.2 Forma grafica a infasuratoarei strimerilor apartinind frontierei suprafetei palmare OP )-APHE(B Ov )cosvt+Cy!'(v)sinvt) (1) forma analitica a infasuratoarei strimerilor apartinind frontierei suprafetei palmare CE EK" Vv pg | B,O(v)=2-( 2 Exixcosvt; )! p. (2) CpO()=2-(E Exisinvt; ¥ pq j-element component al regiunii investigate (suprafata palmara),i-punct de diviziune al elementului je {1,2,3,4,5};p-lungimea ele-mentului j [mm sau um].q-numarul subiectilor investigati clectrografic,apartinind aceleiasi clase biofunctionale:k-numarul de ordine al subiectului analizat,k= 1,2,...,¢.Xi.-dimensiunea strimerului inregistrat electrografic pe frontiera (T) a suprafetei palmare [mm sau jim].t-punct de diviziune al elementului j.t- coordonata curenta Nota: In suma E din (1), indicele de insumare este Wv=I,2,....n),iar in suma dubla © E din(2)indi- cii de insumare sunt i sik (=1,2,... pr k= 1.2... q)-Stabilirea diagramei de control si reglare cibernetica a undelor cerebrale «1,B,5,0 avind ca metoda medicala de terapie tratamentul prin impulsuri luminoase (Fig.3) S-au folosit expresii ale poten- tialului cerebral dependent de punctul de observatie (3) (International Journal of Theoretical Phy- sics, 1975, pp 1-9) si ale variatiei potentialului cerebral in intervale de timp infinitesimale(4),obti.. nindu-se expresia dependentei biocampului radiant de potentialul cerebral, la momentul t=t0 D=BE aan (£5) (CORA) 3) Jafunctic Bessel de ordinul m.c-conductivitate electrica:f=0/2n-frecventa:C-capacitatea mediului neuronal. pulsatie: t-timp(s) 6=o/C-parametu al difuziei :o.,-coeficienti EEG: (ray.z)-coordonate cilindrice. =D “Se CEEG-clectrocncefalograma.EG-clectro- grafic PP W=FEDIEK 0 DUD=A HEB, (w}OOSMT CZ!" (W)SiNVAH FED EJP I (AMY NCI) A) 3 2 Leen >| |______—-» control EG PPD =F (Aber Kew —____—_+ 5 \¢_—______—_ Central(CNS) control oO) 8 EEG Fig 3 Diagrama de control si reglare cibemetica @ undelor cerebrale o1,B,6,0 avind ca metoda me- dicala de terapie tratamentul cu impulsuri huminoase(ae(8-13Hz),Be(14-30Hz) 5 <(0- 3,3Hz), @¢(4-7Hz)) -Informatia electrografica (energia de tip Onicescu si entropia informationala)a fost utilizata in aprecierea homeostaziei unor afectiuni psiho-neuro-endoctine,cardiovasculare,procese de imba- trinire S-au obtinut rezultatele consemnate in Tab I,electrografia fiind considerata experiment iar semnalele sale biologice,componente ale unui camp de probabilitate.Tipul semnalelor electrogra- fice(sttimerijeste aratat in Fig.4.Metoda matematica folosita @ fost aplicata pentru fiecare compo- nent al lotului martor si a celui afectat,realizindu-se fise de calcul care contin rezultatele respecti- ve.S-au introdus notiuni privitoare la probabilitatea aparitiei electrografice a semnnalelor biologice si la ponderea topologica a acestora,energia si entropia informationala medie si tot dezvol- tat diagrama de control si reglare cibernetica a undelor cerebrale (4.f.5.0\(Fig.3)pria sistemul bio cibernetic aferent. axului SNC-hipotalamus-hipofiza-tiroida-tesuturi,considerindu-se — si produsii acestora thyrotrope releasing factor,thyrostimulent hormone,triiodotironina,tetraiodotironina 1a S-ao " 2 3 x v zo Fig.4 Tipuri de semnale electrografice (strimeri) (C.Guja-1993) Tab. REZULTATE AFECTIUNI LOTSANATOS LOTAFECTAT K B AB Energie 1 Afectiuni psihoneuroendocri 0.549 1.065 informationala ng 2 Procese de imbatrinire OS 1.863 3 Afectiuni cardiovasculare 0.336 0.988 Entropie informa 1 Afectiuni psihoneuro endocri 2.320, 2815 0824 tionala(bits) ne Procese de imbatrinire 4249 0.546 Afectiuni cardiovasculare 3.027 1,065 Bob i =SpiGhC aban Bisby)» Spb) ji inormationata de tip Oniceseu bq pete in informational -S-au obtinut expresii_ matematice privind configuratia si functionalitatea _noesi- structuriiutilizin- du-se teoria’ retelelor de evolutie ierarhica _ multidimensionaia (G Acalugaritei),teoria biostructura- la a materiei (E, Macovschi) precum si unele rezultate referitoare la auto-organizaze si biocom- plexitate (S.Baiculescu).Configuratia si functionalitatea noesi-structurii este dependenta de com- ponentele si procesele care au loc in cadrul biostructurii si materiei_ moleculare coexistente, Au loc relatiile formale (5): MP OKE (4) = OF OT PHC ANS H(A) + POPC .PY(E) SS. Se ee Nsu. Soe (3) Oy OKC Qa Ch DEAN st ta LOL yy? = OL OLE ANS) + OF OTC aay a ttimp MS i Ne SS {€)- aspect cams (Qh aspect saitativ: NSL-noesitcura, BSt-bosrutn Cayc'(2)-complexitate a retelei de evolutie ierarhica multidimensionala (ANs) considerata la nivelul noesistructurii Cays(x)-complexitate a retelei de evolutie ierarhica multidimensionala (ANs) considerata la nivelul biostructuriiANs®)-retea de evolutie ierarhica multidimensionala atasata biostructurii ANs(-retea de evolutie ierarhica multidimensionala atasata materiei moleculare coexistente F operator definit in cadrul subseturilor retelei de evolutie ierarhica multidimensionala (ANs) atasata biostructurii avind valori in cadrul retelei de ordin superior acesteia (atasata noesistructurii) F® operator definit in cadrul subseturilor retelei de evolutie ierarhica multidimensionala atasata materiei moleculare coexistente avind valori in cadrul retelei de ordin superior acesteia (atasata_biostructurii) (Cane)(0)-notatie pentru termenii auxiliari rezultati in cadrul cuantificarii complexitatii retelei de evolutie ierarhica multidimensiona la considerata la nivelul noesistructurii (Caxs\(2)-notatie pentru termenii auxiliari rezultati in cadrul cuantificarii complexitatii retelei de evolutie ierarhica multidimensiona la considerata la nivelul biostructutii Dinamica proceselor de excitatie-inhibitie neuronala s-a considerat modelata de ecuatiile diferen- tiale neliniare: SPT Koch OF hein. Wiatk) ©) Sic, TE) ecint™ ict ex in OF. Vooet) avind solutiile shi Mext.k) = Sud? 1+ See Maou! Eck) + Laine HM K ine! MEK) (7) Suit(¥,T4K) = Sod + Nesie ERO GK) + Deine dsrT WOmeia CK) si" parametru de stare existent in cadnut procesetor de evolutie orizontata:s,,..""- parametru de stare existent in cadmul proceselor de evolutie verticaln:x-vector asociat coordonatelor spatiate-r-timp:p-functic neliniara,S integrare(descric caracterul global al coo- peranii si evolutiei sub sistemelor):V-operator(descrie Muctuatiile (difuziile)):ce-vector asociat parametrilor de ordine: st -regim stabil:inst -regim instabil;S,,valoare a vectorului a:k- coeficient care cuantifica procesele de excitatic~ inhibitie neuronal Se mai pot mentiona unele rezultate semnificative privitoare la generarea matricei potentialului electrogen specific in ontogeneza,obtinindu-se legea matematica dupa care sunt generate compo- nentele hidric,mineral,semiconductor,dielectric apartinind fiintei umane, in intervalu! [0,100]ani, analiza prin utilizarea sistemelor fuzzy a simetriei_ imaginii electrografice,procesele de auto-organizare biologica analizate prin retelele de dezvoltare ierarhica multidimensionala (ANs),stabi lirea unui model de compatibilitate sociala existenta in prezent in tarile Uniunii Europene (The 12"Congress of the European Anthropological Association, Millenial Perspectives Past,Present and FutureUniversity of Cambridge,Royal Anthropological Institute & Annals of Human Biolo- gy,Cambridge,England,8/1 1Sept.2000), In afara acestora pot fi mentionate si lucrarile comunicate la Conferinta Internationala de Stiinta Sistemelor care a avut loc la Wroclav,Polonia,Inter-Con- gresul IUAES care a avut loc la Agrigento,ltalia,Congresul —International-Tendinte in Dezvoltarea__Aplicatiilor Ciberneticii,desfasurat la Baile Felix,Oradea,Inter-Congresul TUAES desfasurat la Beijing,China prectm si cea de a patra Conferinta “Modelarea Structural Fenomenologica’’orga nizata de catre Academia Romana,toate in perioada anilor 2000- 2001,Sectia “Biomatematica”din cadrul Academiei de Cibernetica “St.Odobleja”are unele colaborari stiintifice interdisciplinare cu o serie de colective de cercetare din tara si din strainatate cum ar fi: Institutul de Geriatrie si Gerontologie “Ana Aslan”, Institutul de Fizica 2%Atomica “Horia Hulubei”, Centrul de Cercetari Multidisciplinare si Stiinte Neuronale din Tervuren,Belgia Uni dintre membrii sai fac parte din Uniunea Internationala de Stiinte Antropologice si Etnologice (sectia de antropologie matema- tica),din cadrul Societatii Nationale de Psiho-Neuro-Endocrinologie,Societatii Internationale de Cibernetica din Namur (Nitra).In perspectiva, se are in vedere continuarea directiilor actuale de cercetare,extinderea posibilitatilor de colaborare cu diferite institutii inteme si internationale,co- municarea rezultatelor obtinute la unele manifestari stiintifice de referinta, organizarea unor semi- narii de biomatematica si stiinte interdisciplinare(modele deterministe, stochastice precum si ana- liza Fourier aplicata in biologie,analiza datelor biomedicale si utilizarea metodelor de optimiza- re,oncologie matematica,modele matematice in genetica teoretica si aplicativa,modele in neurobio logie,modelarea afectiunilor infectioase,modelarea proceselor cinetice din farmacologie,tomo- grafie computerizata,modelarea matematica a proceselor celulare, psihologie matematica) Exista unele probleme deschise care vor fi abordate in perioada urmatoare: L.Studiul proceselor de imbatranire prin analize electrografice ar putea implica corelarea cu pro- ductia proteinelor non-self.sintetizate in canalele cu zgomot,n baza_informatiet ADN.Imbatrani- rea ar putea fi analizata din punetul de vedere al distrugerii complexitatii biostructurale,prin teori- a Acalugaritei-Macovschi [3] 2Informatia biologica se structureaza prin componenta sa chimica,stochastica,de mediu,si proba- bil prin informatia de structura. In cadrul rezultatelor testelor electrografice, informatia generala contine si componenta structurala (proprie sistemelor vii), inexistenta la sistemele fara viata Se- pararea acestei componentei ar permite determinarea sa cantitativa si corelarea cu determinarile informationale generale 3.1n conditiile rezultatelor privitoare la aspectele neuto-fiziologice modelate matematic prin teo- ria retetelor de devoltare ierarhica muttidimensionsla {2).[3}. considerindu-se infonnatia. proprieunei__retele neuronale.informatia chimica.infonmatia stochastica.informatia de mediuoumam! de neuroni existent teoretic.numarul de neuroni existenti efectivnumarul de neuroni rezultati prin evolutie(procese inteligente.invatare).numarul de neuroni care supravietuiesc.precum si relatiile -matematice aferente acestora.rezulta ca informatia stochastica este cea care impiedica repro- ductibilitaica perfecta a unui mesaj Informatia de mediu contine memoria” neuronilor initiali iar informatia stracturata a neuronilor va fi efect al modului transmiteri si prelua- ri mesajului genetic, Inregistrarea clectrografica a informatiei structurale va contine si componenta structurit ncuronal 4Pierdcrile cnergetice ale unui sistem biologic implica afectarea functionalitatii sale din momen- tul inceperii acestui proces. Poate avea loc © cvolutie crescatoare in timp a acestui proces.acesta putandu-se cvidentia electrografic. Energia informationala disipata ar trebui extrasa din diferenta dintre cantitatea de informatie initiala si cea finalaevaluata electrogrific Se poate identifica raportul cnergic-cntropic prin aspectele sale informationale. Se poate admite ca electroyrafia re~ prezinta evidenticrea informatie’ biologice a unui biosistem (iste S.tu cadrul dinamicit neliniare a unui biosistem, electrografia poate obtine rezaltate asupra evolutiei acestuia. pe care ulterior sa le analizeze prin aplicarca modelelor matematice utilizate in cadrul retelelor de dezvoltare icrarhica multidimensionala~ANs, 6. Evaluarea electrografica a cauvei wnei afectiuni sau a elementului ei generant, ar implica oblinerea variatiei in timp a respectivei_marimi, in conditis limita, Analiza rezultatelor obtinute s-ar putea efectua prin ecuatii deferentiale neliniare si metodte variational. ) BIBLIOGRAFIE: 1, Romanian Academy 1995:Comparative Study “living-non-living” by means of the electrographic test, Biological Signal, Vol. 2 Acalugaritei G~General structure of Acalugaritet networks” Kibemetes, Vol 5/6,2000.pg, 755-769 3. Baiculescu S.:* Neurophysiological Aspocts Mathematical Modelled through (ANs-MB0 Theory”.Vol of Procecdings.Pag.173-185.The 7" International Congress of Cybernetics.Computer Science.and System ‘Theory-TAKIS.Constantine the Philosopher University, Nitra Stovakia.2002A NEW PARADIGM FOR THE INFORMATION SOCIETY — PROJECT-ORIENTED SOCIETY Dr. Constanta Bodea, The Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest ABSTRACT The paper presents concept of Project-Oriented Society (POS) and the participation of Romania in POS Benchmarking project, showing the objectives, activities performed, self assessment results and the strategy defined for the development of Romania as POS. It also presents the achievements in the post project phase. 1 POS CONCEPT AND POS RESEARCH PROJECT ‘The IPMA ~ International Project Management Association started a research initiative to develop and apply the mode! of the Project-Oriented Society. The project started in May 1999 with the "POS Conception Project” , The model of the project-oriented society was constructed ard criteria for the description of project- otiented societies were defined [Gareis R.. 2001] The POS model is desoribed bs specific processes performed by project-oriented companies and by specific services provided by PM related institutions, These processes and services are illustrated in a POS spider web, Following "POS Conception Project”. "POS Benchnutrking” project started in April 2000, The objectives of this project were to assess and to compare the competences of the different project-oriented societies. to analyse commonalties and differences between these POSs and to define strategies for further developing these competences of the POSs. The project "POS Benchmarking” is performed as a co-operation berwzen national PM associations. 2. ROMANIA PARTICIPATION TO THE POS RESEARCH PROJECT At present. Romania passes through a rough economic restructuring process. Development of complex processes presumes participation of many national and international cconomtic institutes and organizations and it is an important vector in achieving this restructuring process. Through these projects, several programs for normalizing different economic segments of Romanian society. projects for privatizing large state-owned enterprise. modernizing and upgrading strategic economic units are implemented. By financing such projects. the European Union sustains Romania's efforts for integration into European and North Atiantic structures. The Romania integration in European Union demands urgent training and education of specialized staff to directly contribute to a smooth gearing and co-operation in all domains or reciprocal interest ‘A cutting-edge sector of approach is preparation of specialists in Project Management, which formally lack in Romania. It is imperative to start as soon as possible the systematic training for the new profession, that of Project Manager, which exists in EU countries. This specialization represents an interdisciplinary, vast, rigorous domain, with its own branches, standards, curriculum, knowledge areas and training policy orientation. Project manager is a profession with a marked multidisciplinary character. Defining and coordinating a complex project implies the engagement into both technical aspects and economic and social ones. Romania joined the "POS Benchmarking" project following the invitation of PROJEKTMANAGEMENT GROUP - University of Economics and Business Administration Vienna, We considered this an opportunity, otherwise being unlikely for us tobe able to join the project, manly for financial causes. Romania joined Group 1, besides Austria, Denmark, Hungary, Swedish and United Kingdom The objective of Romania participation to the project was getting an assessment of PM practices and services currently available and establishing a strategy of improving the development of Romania as a Project - oriented Society, considering the similarities with other countries. Another objective of our involvement in this project was proving our association possibility of joining an international cooperation and getting the experience needed for further similar actions. 2.4. Activities performed for assessing and benchmarking the Romania as POS Processes of assessing and benchmarking the Romania as POS were 1. The establishment of the POS Benchmarking team; 2. The questionnaire was translated into Romanian and it was sent to different companies. especially the Primavera users, some PM training and consulting companies (e.g. CODECS) and other big companies. ‘There were no major problems with the terminology used by the questionnaire 3. PM-Practice-Team collected some data regarding the economic competitiveness of Romania. using the official sources. We have included this data on our assessment. 4. PM-Institutions-Team made an Internet based investigation about PM institutions. especially those offering PM training programs. 3. The PM-Practice-Team consulted a team of assessors in order to identify the PM-practices used by big companies. 7. In November 2001. in Vienna we presented the first assessment results, During December 2000 and January 2001 we extended the PM institutions and PM-practices assessment. reviewing some of our first assessments. The team of assessors constituted the base for PM- practices assessment during the hole assessment process. 9. On march 2001. in Zurich the romanian team presented the final results of the POS assessmet 2.2. Self-assessement results 2.2.2. The competence of Romania as POS in 2000 a) PM Support __|= competence 10 PM Associations newly established competence 10 PM standardization |* No national PM standards exist competence 0 PM education [* — Some institutions offer formal PM education | © 2 Master degree programmes are established, no other degrees, PRD. in PM not | offered | PM not included in secondary education | * No PM cenification according to TEMA is offered | S competence 30 | PM research © Little PM ressarch activity | ‘ ‘marketing ne at Lo. b) PM practices Romania shows low competences in project and programme management. Only few PM methods are used. For instance PM methods like those for updating Uie project organization chart are never used. Project Portfolio management does not exist yet. Only 2% of all companies are perceived as project oriented and their competences in organisational design are low. The POS spider web for Romania is presented in figure 1 and the POS ratios resulted for our country are presented in Table 1, Table 2 shows the weighted competences and POS ratios of the POS benchmarking Group 1Project management PM standarszaton, Seogramme management PM marieting Project porto management eersornel management in project at reseaen ‘orentes companies Feanzanorat deagn at prjectorentes Pu eaacatom Figure spider web for Romania as POS (Source: POS Benchmarking Report, Vienna 2 ‘Vable t: POS ratios calculated for Romania (Source: POS Benchmarking Report, Vienna 2002) ‘Competence Axes Competence per | Weight T Weighted competence axes [PM education. 30 10% 30 PM research 0 10% iy PM marketing iv 10% | 6 S$ benchmarking results (Source: POS Benchmarking Report, Vienna 2002) Specific processes | A DK HU RO s UK| PM education: 40, 30 30 30 40 80 PM research a 40 30 20 10 40 70 PM marketing 50 30 20 0 50 80 PM standardization Z 40 30 10 0 30 60 PM support ratio 160] 290 ee if2.3. Results analysis In Romania projects were only used in some specific industries, like building construction, energy chemistry, engineering and IT. Romania now passes through a rough economic restructuring process. applying projects for privatising large state-owned enterprises, modernising and updating strategic economic units crealing new business units. For all industries and the non-profit sector projects are becoming very important. Companies which offer consulting services for PM tend to cover a lot of project types from different areas. Demand for the application of projects and prograunmes of the markets is increasing ‘This discrepancy between PM being perceived as very important and the low PM practice ratio could have two major causes in our opinion: 1, There are companies who recognise the importance of PM but do not have the knowledge of applying PM practices. They use unqualified personnel or they use people in an inadequate manner, For instance, fone company we studied uses the same person as project manager for 10-15 most important projects and as portfolio manager. 2. There are companies who recognise the importance of PM bul do not intend to pay for project managers, which have higher wages. They consider that managerial costs would reise if they use qualified project managers, 3. Traditional approach in project management, in which projecs are special situations and organizations do not consider necessary to develop internal competencies and use previous experience is project management every day PM support ratio is diminished by the lack of some important support issue as PM standardisation and insufficient development of PM marketing and research, although we obtained satisfactory ratio for PM education Our score is most close to that of Hungary, also a transitional economy. It is not surprising that Romania has the lowest POS ratio with nearly 200, In the fast {vo years emphasis was given to the development of formal PM education programmes, but except that there is not much competence in the other PM related services like research. marketing or standardization. Nevertheless Romanian project-oriented companies show already some PM competence (63 out of 200), white programme management and portfolio management almost do not exist yet Although we have the lowest score it seems that there is @ positive influence of support over practice and the correlation between the two of them is similar to most countries. As a result we intended to continue with development of suport, hopeing this will have a good influence over practice. 2.4, Planned competence of Romania as Project-oriented Society In the next 10 years. Romiania has to further develop the PM support services and to sustain PM practices implementation’ Establishing a target level for both ratios is indeed difficult because: 1, PM support ratio for countries in Group 1 is much inconstant (from 59 to 28" points, from 400 possible). 2. Developing most services requires general economic performance. Our country estimated economic performance is not encouraging us. Though. there are aspects. as standardization, that does not require important financial resources and semnificative steps can be done for developing those aspects, ‘There are no studies in Romania to permit us assessing the impact of different services over business environment, For example, the professional association generally have a strong impact over business. Romanian business environment does not promote professional association as the most important Potential of developing professionaism, Thal is why we locally find such a low interest for professionalassociations. For the effectiveness of this support services we need research studies for the short term impact of PM services and a strategy for long term promoting of these services. 4. PM practice improvement for future term cannot be estimate as we do not have enough information about the responsiveness of business environment and its ability to contimuously improve its practices by experience. 2.5, Strategy for the development of Romania as Project-oriented Society The POS model structures our strategy in two main directions: a) Developing PM support through: - PM standardization (the definition of Romanian National Competence Baseline, the adoption of other PM standards). - PM research - Improvement of PM marketing activities: organization of more PM events, better communication in PM community and more transparency in the activity of the organizations involved in PM development. - Development of international contacts: affiliation of PM associations to different PM international bodies and participation in different international events. b) Improving PM practices PM practices must be improved in most companies. as they are most likely to use an empiric project Management, It is also important for project management to be promoted in other new companies. All this ‘marketing activity should base upon a scientific research which wonld demonstrate the efficiency of this type of management. Companies would be more responsive to a scientific study that proves that managerial costs are better controlled through project management and even though these costs may raise the economic growth will compensate for it, We will further present the PM research main topics that could have an important impact over the development of Romania as Project-oriented Society Evolution of managerial costs study and management efficiency through PM methods implementation, Studies regarding continuously improvement of PM practices by experience There are methods for applying Leaming Curve for processes of management (for example resource planning rocess can be made better with time and experience accumulated. according to [Widerman. 1994)). This way ‘we could do better estimate of PM practices performance evolution in the next 10 years for Romania. ‘Periodically self assessment of competence of Romania as POS 3 POST PROJECT PHASE. RESULTS OF STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION IN 2001 - 2002 Following this strategy for the development of Romania as POS we made some achievements in 2001 — 2002. National association of project management, PM ROMANIA. claborated the National Competence Baseline this year. which was adopted as the Romanian standard SR 13463:2002, Based on National Competence Baseline PM ROMANIA started setting up the PM Cenification Program. The national PM association promoted a common PM terminology by editing the first Romanian PM Glossary As @ result of this intense activity the national association gained representativity. having more then 100 members in present Following the example of PM ROMANIA. other associations as Romania PMI Chapter become more active, and a new PM professional association was sct up in 2001. Having more people interested more PM events arisen. PM Research also oblained some results. Romania had the first participant at the 16-th World Congress on PM in Berlin and we received an invitation to take part in the 17-th IPMA World Congress technical program,REFERENCES Butler R., Davis L., Pike R., Sharp J.. 1993, Strategie Investment Decisions, Routledge. London. Gareis R., June, 2001, Assessing and Benchmarking Project-oriented Societies: Results of the POS Benchmarking Group], Vienna Gareis R., Huemann M., November, 2001, Benchmarking the Project-oriented Society, PM Days ‘01 ~ Research Conference, Vienna Gareis R, Huemann M,, 2001, Assessing and Benchmarking Project-oriented Societies, Project Management, International Project Management Journal, vol. 7, no. | Nicolescu ©. Verboncu [,, 1999, Management, Editura Economici, Bucuresti van der Merwe A. P., September, 2000, Economic Development, Social Spending and Project management, Project Management World Today, http:/Avww.pmforum.org, Wideman M., 1994, Applying Resource Loading. Production & Leaming Curves to Construction: A Pragmatic Approach, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering. vol. 21RELATIILE DINTRE CULTURA, ECONOMIE $I ECOLOGIE IN MEDIUL RURAL Vasile Jordichescu Paul Buhlea intrucét componentele enuntate in temi ~ cultura, economia, ecologia — au suferit unele mutatii nefavorabile pe intervalul celor 50 de ani de dictatura, iar in cei 12 ani de tranzitie la economia de piat&, incd nu s-a ajuns la o functionare eficienta i la realizarea unor relatii de interdependenta si stimulare reciproca, se incearca, prin prezentarea de fata si un studiu detaliat in curs de desfasurare, si se gaseasca unele solutii de coroborare a acestor componente. Doresc si muljumese anticipat corespondenfilor, pentru eventualele observatii, completari sau recomandari de specialitate, care sé ne conduca in final la solutii viabile, Este incontestabil ca, pe perioada de dictatura s-a mentinut in buna parte (in unele cazuri s-au si dezvoltat) bazele materiale de desfisurare a componentelor de mai sus. insi forma impusa si de functionalitate separata a lor, pe sistemul ideologic comunist, nu a avut nici pe departe efectele dorite Dupa evenimentele din 1989, respectiv pe perioada de tranzitie de 12 ani, populatia s-a separat in doud categorii principale ~ una majoritara, care se striduieste si facd fat’ necesitatilor la limita de existent, iar a doua, restransa, de acumulare grabnica si de cat mai mult, situatie care a facut ca preocupirile pentru cele 3 componente enuntate in tema, precum si baza materiala existent, s& fie neglijate si chiar degradate, din lipsi de interes si cadrut legislativ adecvat Concret, in mediul rural, in conjuctura aritaté, o buna parte din cdmine culturale si case de cultura, cat si activitatea lor au aspectul de abandonare. Activitatile celora care totugi functioneaza, au tenta de cultura comerciala, diminuand sau chiar denaturand tocmai acele activitati cu caracter autentic-istoric, stiintific, etnografic, folcloric etc. $i fara a fi stabilita o legatura directa cu economia si ecologia in aceste imprejurari a luat fiinta Asociatia Nationala Renasterea Satelor Roménes (din Comuna Radaseni, Judepul Suceava) care in principiu activeazi pentru valorificarea potentialelor specifice zonale a celor trei componente din tema, in conditii moderne gi actuale, de inceput al mileniului Ill, eventual prin adaptarea de sisteme functionale uzuale in (arile europene. In ultima vreme s-au initiat unele forme organizatorice care fac leg&tura intre latura economic’ si cea cultural’, in sensul incheierii unor contracte de colaborare intre agentii economici si institutii publice, avand la baza Codul Comercial Roman. Prin aceasta impletire a intereselor agentilor economici si de servicii cu cele ale celor de fa cultura a fost posibil ca, unele lacage rurale de cultura sa devina din nou functionale, astfel incét aceste cladiri de obicei vechi dar impunatoare, sau altele noi, bine concepute si executate s& reprimeascd aspectul de institutie publica functionala si eficienta Pentru extinderea acestor prime initiative, unul din obiectivele de baza ale Asociatiei este de a crea condifii locale de formare si dezvoltare a unei largi categorii sociale — INTERMEDIARA (intre cei la limita de existenti gi cei deveniti foarte bogati) care, avand osituatie economic prospera si aib’ posibilitatea si dorinfa de a se ocupa si de cultura (spiritualitate, istorie, etnografie-folclor, stiinta etc.), element de baz& in reconturarea fiintei nationale romAnesti si s& o fac& cunoscuta in exterior la adevarata ei valoare. Intentionat am lsat latura ecologica in partea a Il-a a lucrarii fiind de importanti vital, din care cauzi imi voi lua permisiunea de a o prezenta pe scurt in doua capitole distincte, si anume 1. Proporfiile acestei actiuni la nivel nationale i international, actiune care pune jin discutie insdsi existenta planetei Pamant. 2. Preocupirile actuale de aplicare imediat& si de perspectiva in mediul rural gi corelarea cu actiunile culturale si economice. 1. Prin simpla enumerare a fenomenelor ce ne-au impins intr-o adevarat& criz& ecologic, si anume : efectul de sera, ploile acide, gaurile in straturi de ozon, mareele negre, milomele induse de apa poluata, invazia deseurilor, intoxicarea solului cu chimicale, ne putem da seama ca ne confruntim cu o realitate tristd dar adevarata, Semnale de alarma au fost trase cu peste 40 de ani in urma prin rapoarte i lucrari, dintre care amintim : cartea ,,Silent spring” din anul 1962 a lui R. Carson, raportul Clubului de la Roma ,,Limit to grows” din anul 1972 si documentul manifest Our common future” din 1987 cunoscut sub numele de ,Raportul Bruntlant”, care pur si simplu au pus termene civilizatiei noastre si au preconizat sfarsitul ,.partidei” in secolul care urmeazi. Din lucrarile amintite, printre altele reiese cA, timp de circa un miliard de ani sistemul ecologic al planetei a avut o dezvoltare lind. Pe acest interval au avut loc doar doua accidente ecologice majore : la sfarsitul Erei Primare, cand au disparut circa 85% din formele de viata de pe planeta si la sfargitul Erei Secundare cand au disparut circa 60% din viefuitoare. Aparitia omului pe PAmant a insemnat un impuls deosebit, civilizator, avand la baz& descoperirile : parghia, roata, aburul, electricitatea gi atomul, descoperiri care in unele cazuri s-au intors impotriva lui din punct de vedere ecologic. Prima ruptura intre om gi natura s-a produs prin inlocuirea animalelor cu masini, dar mai ales degradarea ecosistemelor forestiere si extinderea, care a condus la aparitia deseurilor cu consecintele nefaste cunoscute, ficdndu-se astfel primul pas spre revolutia termo- industriald. Prin adaugarea si a celorlalte resurse de energie — electrice si atomice, s-a ajuns la extinderea industrializarii, care, pe linga efecte pozitive a condus la : exploatarea intensivi — nerafionala a resurselor naturale, deteriorarea mediului prin poluare gi crearea de deseuri masive, situatie ce impune necesitatea stabilirii de urgenta a unui raport rational intre om si natura, Masuri grabnice se impun, avand in vedere faptul c& resursele naturale nu sunt infinite (sunt chiar unele cu sfarsit previzibil), iar cele regenerabile au o rata de refacere mult prea lent pentru a satisface necesitatile. Problemele ecologice devenind tot mai numeroase s-a ajuns la diverse misc&ri ecologice, institutii guvernamentale, neguvernamentale, partide politice, fara insa a reduce substantial problemele, deloc linistitoare, subliniate de Clubul de la Roma amintit mai sus Misurile de redresare ecologica fati de starea prezentati mai sus, necesit’ resurse materiale gi in special organizatorice la nivel national si international. O misuri practica dar foarte greu de realizat ar fi restrictionarile severe intre productie si consum, tema ce depseste cu mult limitele prezentului raport. Aceast& tema, care de fapt ar fi: interpretarea si acceptarea corecta intre crestere si dezvoltare — adicd si poti produce aceeasi cantitate (gi atat cat este strict necesar), dar cu mai putin si mai bine, luna care reprezinta de fapt progresul tehnic real.Posibilitatile locale in mediul rural sunt in momentul de fat de mic& anvergura, dar multe si extinse, iar prin valorificarea lor pot ameliora mult situatia generala nafionala. in acest sens se incearca prezentarea unora dintre acestea in capitolul urmator. 2. Pomindu-se de la ideea cA resursele de finantare pentru obicctivele ecologice de proportii sunt limitate si se demareaza greu, trebuie luate masuri concrete si cu efecte apropiate in mediul rural, cu precédere in satele cele mai izolate unde agentii de poluare au p&truns mai putin si deci si resursele materiale de realizare a lor se pot asigura prin autofinantare si sponsoriziri, apeland foarte putin 1a bugetul focal sau in mod cu totul exceptional la bugetul national Si pe acest considerent s-a constituit ASOCIATIA NATIONALA ,,RENASTEREA SATELOR ROMANESTI” din Com. Radaseni, care pe lang conditiile ardtate mai sus, are un bazin pomicol recunoscut, solul si izvoarele cu bogat confinut de potasiu,, ionizare negativa. intens& (fiind la confluenta unor curenti de aer de munte). in Romania ins& sunt foarte multe zone similare si se pot intreprinde, cu minim de efort financiar, o agricultura biologica, prin utilizare de ingrasiminte naturale, combaterea daundtoritor prin varuirea copacilor si protectia si favorizarea dezvoltarii coloniilor de viespi, in felul acesta se apeleazi la un minim de chimicale in combaterea unor daunatori mai rebeli in pomicultura si cultura cartofilor. Cu cheltuieli minime se pot face regulariziri a pardielor si deci utilizarea gi gestionarea rational a fondului de ap’, in paralel cu protectia lui de deversiri menajere, colectarea si valorificarea ambalajelor ete Prin luarea de masuri similare, se pot aduce multe imbunatatiri ale conditiilor climatice si de amenajari moderne pregatind un teren propice pentru mini-sanatorii ale clinicilor mari de geriatrie (zona fiind recunoscut’ cu un numar mare de longevivi si in general de protectie si de recuperare cu precadere a populatiei de varsta a I-a gi a Ill-a, cele mai vulnerabile Ja poluarea din mediul urban). Pe acelasi fond expus mai sus, se poate dezvolta mult turismul rural — cultural — ecologic, asa incat apeland in prima fazé numai la aceste doud masuri (spatiul prezent nu ne permite etalarea si a altora), se poate asigura un bun suport financiar de continuare a masurilor de protectie a mediului, Nu este deloc neglijabil ca in aceste conditii de mediu sinatos sé se facd intdlnirea celor doua generatii (a I-a si a Ill-a) unde se pot realiza transferuri ale multor cunostinte si preocupari de-o viata pe teme culturale (spiritualitate, educatie, istorie, stiintifice $i altele) si care constituie practic fructificarea unui tezaur inestimabil in paralel cu o alimentatie cu produse dintr-o agricultura biologica, avem in programul Asociatiei si masuri de protectia speciilor de pomi fructiferi cu soiuri pe cale de disparitie (peste 20 soiuri mere, 10 soiuri pere, 10 soiuri prune etc.). in acest sens, in program este si refacerea unei gradini de cca. 10 hectare — rezervatie - gen banca de date a soiurilor traditionale zonelor subcarpatice, soiuri pe cale de disparitie ce s-au dovedit ca avand grupe de vitamine distincte cu deosebite calitati nutritive si terapeutice. Se preconizeaza ca toate aceste activitati cultural — educative ~ stiintifice ~ istorice — edilitare etc., si fie realizate pe o structura organizatorica gen — incubatoare de conduce si organizare, dupa modelul din Franta, cu tineri sub 18 ani, Formula considerat’ ca un caz particular a teoriei de invatare prin aplicatie a Prof. W. REVANS ~ Anglia Scurta prezentare a temei de fati nu a facut decat si va reaminteasca unele lucruri bine cunoscute de dvs., dar si uncle misuri aplicative si de intrep&trundere a componentelor de cultura, economic, ecologie, lasind mereu loc de stridanie a completarii lor, avand ca scop final gasirea unui sistem cat mai eficient perioadei de tranzitiei pentru mediul rural, care s& functioneze similar celui european, pastrand in acelasi timp originalitatea romaneasca,SYSTEM APPROACH TO PENSION REFORM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE Eugen Tutian Mihaita’ ‘The Nottingham Trent University. United Kingdom ABSTRACT. A wave of pension reforms featuring private initiatives has swept throughout CEE since the middle of the 1990s, comprehensive reform packages having been already passed by parliaments in many countries in the region. Reform has become important and its objectives are the same in all countries undergoing pension reform: enhanced coverage and higher benefit levels provided by a financially stable system. Retirement pension schemes are amongst the most complex and mutti-dimensional social arrangemenis in modern societies, influencing public finance, national saving, labour and capital markets, Keywords: pension reform, transition, Central and Eastern Europe JEL classification: H55, J11, 126, P2 1, GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS ON THE NEED TO REFORM The new wave of pension reform that is sweeping through Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is featuring an important private component. Laws implementing radically new pensions systems were passed by the Parliaments of 7 countries in the region: Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Poland and Romania After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the CEE countries went through a series of dramatic changes. The western influence is evident in matters regarding privatisation, introduction of financial markets and liberalization. But when it comes to pension system reform measures, the Latin American type of pension reform, originated twenty years ago, and which involves a strong private presence, was the major influence (for a more detailed analysis see Mihaita, 2001), Also, for a large number of reasons, the public pension systems, which provided suitable universal coverage until late 1980s, now seem to be heading towards failure in meeting their objectives The command economy promised “cradle-to-grave” income security, including universal coverage and pensions replacing wages up to 80 percent. The general view was that these benefits had to compensate for the modest wages earned during working years and, by western standards, they were quite generous. Retirement ages were set very low: in every country except Poland, the statutory retirement age was 55 for women and 60 for men, There were also generous special provisions for disabilities and selected occupations, which reduced the average effective retirement age to about 57 for men and 53 for women (Fox, 1994). However, in the years after 1989, the combination of declining GDP and market- determined wages and prices made the system unsustainable as the transition progressed. PRD student in Economics, Department of Economics and Politics. The Nottingham Trent UniversityYounger families pooled resources with pensioners in order to survive, with each contributing resources to the common household budget. The weight of the cost imposed by the system on the shoulders of working generation had become smothering. Policy objectives such as macroeconomic stability and medium-term sustainability are ultimately meant to improve the social welfare. Before the beginning of transition, the CEECs had a well-developed social sector, covering all the typical social and economic risks, as well as devoting large amounts of effort to health and education. The problem was that their institutional arrangements had been designed for a centrally planned economic system and thus were incompatible with the problems brought by the transition to the market economy. As a result, and the past experience shows this, the social sector as a whole has suffered significantly from this process, being the most vulnerable to market ailments such as unemployment and inflation. For a variety of inter-related reasons, the CEE countries, despite having much lower incomes and tax collection capabilities, had promised higher benefits than some of the richest countries in the world, many of which are now finding their own welfare systems unaffordable. Many Western countries - with the same share of their population over 60 and longer life expectancies - spend less on pensions as a share of GDP than do the CEE countries, due largely to the higher age of eligibility. The size of the prematurely retired group makes the situation of the latter countries unique in the world, and complicates any solution. Moreover, health indicators are expected to rebound over the next decade, exacerbating the problem further. A vicious circle is visible: on one hand, the transition process has increased the demand for social benefits but, on the other, it has undermined the financing of benefits. As GDP fell, the revenue base decreased, triggering the need to raise taxes and contribution rates, which, in turn, increased the practice of evasion, shrinking the tax base even further (Heller and Keller, 2001). In summary, it can be argued that the transition from the centralized to market economies brought new issues to the pension reform: © high initial implicit debt; weak administration capacity; decreasing contributor base; numerous privileged groups; low retirement age limit. The pension crisis has economic, political and social influences. From the economic point of view, high pension expenditures have frustrated stabilization efforts and crowded out other needed government expenditures, such as new social and economic infrastructure. The payroll tax financing of these expenditures provides incentives for informatisation of the labour force and lowers labour demand. Politically, the demands of the pensioners (and the soon-to-be pensioners) for the government to keep its entitlement promises have proven to be very difficult to resist, despite the economic cost. The consequence is that only parties and leaders with populist promises get to be elected, despite the evident need for clear cut economic reform. Socially, the insecurity associated with declining pension payments for those who have already withdrawn from the labour force has been a major hardship, especially for the small minority of pensioners who have no other source of income or assets. The strategy goals must include securing pension benefits, reducing government spending on pensions, decreasing the contribution rate, lowering system dependency ratio, increasing participation rates and improving saving rates, Reform as a whole should reduce system exposure to risks (demographic or economic), establish a strong link between 8contributions and benefits, to create room for individual choice and set the foundations for future changes in social security sector 2. THE CEECS PENSION REFORM EXPERIENCES, Literature distinguishes two types of reform: parametric (moderate) and systemic (complex, radical, comprehensive) Parametric reforms are the most commonly used and least complex way of reforming PAYG systems. As Chand and Jaeger (1999) show, they are comprised of adjustments in contribution rate, replacement rate (mainly by changing the benefit formula, by reductions in accrual factors, lengthening of assessment periods, changes in indexation, introducing demographic factors and actuarially fair adjustments to early/late retirement) and pension coverage ratio (probably the most frequently considered, increasing the statutory age for retirement), A gradual phasing-in is needed, especially in the case of the last type of adjustment, in order to limit the unfair treatment between different generations of workers. Chand and Jaeger also point to another parametric adjustment, increasing the budget transfer rate, which they deem as desired for a temporary period of time in case there are serious political costs associate to the adjustment of the other system parameters. Systemic reform involves radically changing the system, switching to new systems having a mandatory private pension fund pillar, which is either substituting (the PAYG is phased out ~ the substitutive model), competing with (individuals have to choose ~ the parallel model) or complementing the public PAYG pillar (the two coexist - the mixed model) (Mesa-Lago, 1997). The on-going pension reforms in Central and Eastern Europe do not feature extreme innovations or untried formulas, rather, they generally follow the World Bank muttipillar system model (World Bank, 1994, Holzmann, 1999): © The first pillar - a mandatory pay-as-you-go (PAYG) public pension scheme designed to provide an income floor for all elderly persons, with inter-generational and intra- generational redistribution, * The second pillar - a mandatory fully funded, defined-contribution and privately managed pension scheme - based on personal accounts, where benefits depend on the individual’s account at retirement provided as lump sums or annuities; * The third pillar - a voluntary system (funded and privately managed), with strong government regulation, to provide for additional savings and insurance All the countries that radically reformed their systems share to a very high degree the particulars of the second, mandatory private pillar. As detailed in Mihaita (2001), this is because of the tremendous effect of the Latin American pension reform experience involving, universal private pension funds, which set the standards, coupled with the influence of the international financial institutions. Workers have individual pension savings accounts, into which they make tax- deductible monthly contributions of certain percentages of their wages. In general, if a person contributes to a private fund, a corresponding tax deduction is made from the payment to state insurance. The pension societies and the funds administered by them are from the legal point of view separate entities. There is freedom of entry and of exit into the industry, even for foreign companies, once a minimum limit on capital has been reached. They charge monthly commissions for the services they provide — fixed commissions, and variable commissions, a percentage of the worker's taxable income, which includes premiums for life and disability insurance. Upon retirement, the workers usually buy life-time annuities from insurance companies In the new systems, the government plays two important roles — as a regulator of the system and as the last-resort guarantor. First, the government has established new independent wsupervising agencies in order to initiate and coordinate the pension reform, which oversee the entire private pensions, mainly by regulating the pension societies. Second, the government will provide a minimum pension from the budget or will supply the extra money needed to provide the minimum pension. Pension societies have minimum rates of return required and have to contribute to “profitability fluctuation” reserves ‘One major obstacle is the difficulty in investing the capital. Capital markets in many countries suffer from lack of liquidities and transparency, and in many cases are underdeveloped. A lot of times, the only domestic option for pension funds is to invest in state bonds, and, in this the case, to say that the system was radically reformed is totally unfounded. Investment abroad is strongly restricted. Poland allows 5 per cent of the capital to be invested outside country borders, while Hungary allows 10 per cent, a quota that will soon become 30 per cent. However, considerable variations in pension reform are seen in the make up of the first, public pillar. While Bulgaria and Romania have continued with a reformed PAYG scheme (to which they added the second pillar), similar to Hungary, Poland has radically changed its first pillar transforming it into a Notional Defined Contribution pillar. The NDC pillar functions exactly as the fully funded second pillar, having the same retirement age and pension accounting method (participants contribute based on a fixed rate and the value is accredited to their managed individual retirement accounts which are annuitiesed at the day of retirement). The main differences being the returns the accounts in the two pillars generate and the financing of benefits: the rate of return in the first pillar (the notional interest rate) is linked to the growth of the covered wage bill (labour market performance), while the rate of retum in the second pillar is linked to the pensions funds investment efficiency (capital market performance) (Géra, 2001) Another very important distinction in the Polish NDC pillar is that the individual life expectancy is one of the parameters involved in the individual accounts. The benefits are calculated by dividing the value on the account at the time of retirement to a number based on unisex life expectancy (Chlon, Gora and Rutkowski, 1999). While the Hungarian formula uses a unisex life expectancy index instead of discriminating on gender, this regulation goes a long way in strengthening the correlation between contributions and benefits. In the case of the other pension reforms (except Poland), ‘one negative comment can be made regarding the perpetuation, from the old public pension system into the new one, of the inequitable treatment of sexes regarding their retirement benefits, REFERENCES Barr, N. (1994), “Labour Markets and Social Policy in Central and Eastern Europe. The Transition and Beyond.”, World Bank, Oxford University Press Barr, N. (1998), “The Economics of the Welfare State", Oxford University Press, Oxford Chand, SK. and A. Jaeger (1999), “Reform Options for Pay-as-you-go Public Pension Systems”, Social Protection Discussion Paper no. 9927, World Bank. Chion, A, M. Gora and M. Rutkowski (1999), "Shaping Pension Reform in Poland Security Through Diversity", Social Protection Discussion Paper No, 9923, World Bank, Washington D.C. Fox, L. (1994), “Old-Age Security in Transitional Economies”, World Bank Working Paper No. 1257, Washington, D.C Géra, M (2001), “Polish Approach to the Pension Reform”, OECD 2000 Private Pensions Conference No.3, Private Pensions Series, 227-246, OECDHeller, P.S and C. Keller (2001), “Social Sector Reforms in Transition Countries”, IMF Working Paper, WP/01/35, International Monetary Fund. Holzmann, R. (1994), "Funded and Private Pensions for Eastern European Countries in “Transition?” Pension System Features and Options for Reform Conference, Rio de Janeiro. Holzmann, R. (1999), "The World Bank Approach to Pension Reform", Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 9807, World Bank, Washington D.C. Mesa-Lago, C. (1997), “Social Welfare Reform in the Context of Economic-Political Liberalization: Latin American Cases”, World Development 4/97, 497-517, Mihaita, E. I. (2001), “Lessons from the Latin American Pension Reforms: Developments in Central and Eastern Europe”, Managing Economic Transition Network Working Paper Series WPO01/04, Manchester Metropolitan University Business School, Manchester National Bank of Romania (2002), Monthly Bulletin 09/2002, Bucharest National Institute of Statistics (N.LS.) (2001) - “Romanian Statistical Yearbook 2000”, Bucharest World Bank (1994), “Averting the Old-Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth”, World Bank, Washington D.CPORTOFOLIO APPROACH TO PENSION REFORM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE Eugen Tulian Mihaita’, The Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom Niculae V. Mihaita’’The Academy of Economic Studies, Romania ABSTRACT In this paper we summarise the emergent different paths for pension reform in the CEE countries and we try to apply state preference theory in portfolio approach to create a simple method to determine the way the pension contribution should be split between the pubtic and private pillar. Keywords: pension reform, transition, Central and Eastern Europe JEL classification: H55, Ji1, 526, P2 1. THE SIMPLE PORTFOLIO APPROACH MODE ‘As we have seen do far, the experiences of, and the choices made by, countries that have implemented multi-pillar pension systems are very diverse within the spectrum of fully funded second pillar implementation. The reality painted above is that there are no clear paths, no recipe choices. One key dilemma appears to be the size of the second pillar. As the table shows the percentage point of payroll allocated vary widely across countries. Of course we would expect differences based on the economic and institutional constraints but the choice of numbers seems to be arbitrary. The feasible sizes of the funded pillars should be based on economic analysis and international experience. However, in the case of pension reform, the international experience is somewhat limited to singular cases (the Latin American group of countries, Sweden and Latvia) and, in all the CEECs that have implemented second fully funded pillars, there has been no past experience with pension funds. No studies for feasibility and efficiency of mandatory private pensions could be conducted as, prior to legislation implementation, no pension fund societies existed. Thus, there were no historical data on investment efficiency and no costing analyses for pension assets investments on this scale (meaning “mandatory” private pension participation). In the following paragraphs we try to apply state preference theory in portfolio approach to create a simple method to determine the way the pension contribution should be split between the public and private pillar. The following is partially based on Romanian economy. We consider the Romanian economy with 2 future states of equal probability ~ state 1 (S:) with 3% growth and state 2 (S)) with 0% growth (0.001). We consider the interest rates (rates of return for investments should be more appropriate) for the 2 states to be 5% and 0% (0.001). The discount rate is set at 7% for S; and 3.9% for S2. We will consider the values calculated in US dollars in order to eliminate the effect of inflation (an understatement, there actually is real appreciation see Table 1). * PhD student in Economics, Department of Economics and Politics, The Nottingham Trent University 2Table 1. Selected financial market indicators - Romania ROL/USD | CPIt | Exchange | Real Banks NBR rate appreciation | average | reference depreciation interest | rate rates (discount (deposits) _| rate) 1997 |__7,167.9 | 151.4 132.53 -18.87 57.20 45.00 1998 | 8,875.5 40.6 | 23.82 -16.78 44,50 37.92 1999 | 15,332.9 | 54.8 72.15 17.95 49.10 35.00 (2000 | 21,692.7 | 40.7 41.48 0.78 32.95. 35.00 2001 | 29,060.8 | 30.3 33.97, 3.67 26.69 35.00 2002 | 33,1161 | 114 13.95 2.55 16.47 25.60 + Index as compared to the end of the previous year ; * Data for September 2002 Source: Nationa! Bank of Romania (2002), National Institute of Statistics (2001) and author's calculations Once again, the analysis of Romania is not particularly helpful even for the simple calculations needed for my portfolio exercise. Operations such as refinancing and rediscounting gradually lost relevance for the Romanian economy to such a degree that the National Bank thought the discount rate to no longer define the monetary policy and replaced it with a reference rate, Furthermore, harmonisation with the European Central Bank procedures (which does not include the discount rate among its instruments) also contributed to the replacement. The reference rate is intended to mirror the conditions on the money market: calculated as an arithmetic mean weighted to the volume of transactions, of the interest rates on NBR’s deposit-taking and reverse-repo operations in the previous month. “The evolutions of Romanian indicators are specific to the period of transition, clearly at the opposite side of the predictable, regulate evolutions in advanced economies Fig.1. Selected financial market indicators - Romania/UK Romania - —_ —+-CPIt | -»— Banks average | interestrates | (deposits) 4 NBR reference rate (discount rate) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Fig. 2. Selected financial market indicators — United Kingdom The U.K. 20 5 po ‘ —+—CPI | 15 10 | Discount rate | 5 (base lending. rate) o 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: National Bank of Romania (2002), National Institute of Statistics (2001) and author’s calculations. ‘The starting value for the average gross wage (per year) is considered $1400 (the approximate equivalent of 3.854,969 ROL at September 2002 exchange rate). The pension system contribution tax is 30%, split between the public PAYG pillar (two thirds) and the private FF pillar (one third). The public PAYG guarantees a replacement rate of 45% of the average gross wage in the year of retirement (which continues to be indexed afterwards), We consider the contribution period to be 35 years, the retirement age limit to be 65 years and the average life expectancy to be 70 years, so that the average retirement period is 5 years. We assume that the retirees are forced to take annuities (no lump sum withdrawals) from the amount accumulated in their FF pillar account. We compute the value of the average pensions offered by the two systems corresponding to the two states of the economy. Table.2. Selected financial market indicators — Romania/UK __S1- interest rate 5%, growth rate 3%, discount rate 7% Average wage at the beginning $1,400.00 Average wage at retirement $3,939.41 Sum accumulated in FFP $20,254.76 Present value FFP contributions $2,654.89 Present value PAYG contributions $5,309.77 Present value all FFP pensions _ $1,796.65 Present value all PAYG pensions j $741.60. S2— interest rate 0.1%, growth rate 0.01%, discount rate 3.9% Average wage at the beginnin, $1,400.00 ‘Average wage at retirement [31,404.91 | Sum accumulated in FFP $5,138.14 Present value FFP contributions $2,654.48 Present value PAYG contributions _ 35,308.96 Present value all FFP pensions $1,208.22 | Present value all PAYG pensions __ $741.30 4We gather the above into the following: Total cost: | Total retirement returns* | St S2 FFP $2,654.89 $1,796.65 $1,208.22 PAYG $5,309.77 $741.60 $741.30 + the total cost is calculated as the present value of the future contributions for the state- respective discount rate * calculated as the present value of all pensions in respect to year zero; both in the PAYG and FFP pension payments, the total return is calculated as the present value of the yearly future pension payments (as a string of annuities for the 5-year-period of retirement ) We will treat the above situation within the framework of the state-preference theory, with the two pension schemes approached as securities. The future value of these instruments (securities! pension plans) is uncertain and is represented by a set of possible state-contingent payofls. The linear combinations contained in the above table represent our opportunity set of state-contingent portfolio payoffs. We can create a set of “pure securities”, in order to reduce the uncertainty of the average individual's wealth We compile the above table to the following (with values reduced by 1,000): 180 1.21 2.65 M= and P= . 0.74 0.74, 531 Solving M*p- 1’ ~10.20 ays. ae P -{ 1737 ): representing the price of the pure securities, In the case of the FFP pension in state 1, a payment of $10.2 will give $1 payoff. In the case of the PAYG in state 2, a cost of $17.37 will give $1 payoff The inverted matrix will give indications of actions to be taken depending on the state. ue -( 1,70 -2.77) -1.70 4,12) In the case S; happens we should advise buying 1.7 of the FFP (investing more in FFP) along with selling 1.7 of the PAYG. In case Sz occurs, then, we should sell short 2.77 of FEP and buying 4.12 of the PAYG So, if the prospects for the Romanian economy are good for the following years we should increase the size of the private pillar. CONCLUDING REMARKS. ‘A wave of pension reforms featuring private initiatives has swept throughout CEE since the middle of the 1990s, comprehensive reform packages having been already passed by parliaments in many countries in the region. Reform has become important and its objectives are the same in all countries undergoing pension reform: enhanced coverage and higher benefit levels provided by a financially stable system. Social security systems have played an important role in CEE countries by smoothing the process of economic transition and maintaining social and political stability. In order to help the EU accession, they must continue to do so, provide economic, social and political stability by enabling market participation, securing work-related earnings and guaranteeing a decent retirement income. Ensuring sustainable funding for the pension systems is essential under the economic discipline associated with the EMU (COM (2000) 163). In this paper we summarise the emergent different paths for pension reform in the CEE countries. We try to apply state preference theory in portfolio approach to create a 45simple method to determine the way the pension contribution. should be split between the public and private pillar. The portfolio approach is based on the Romanian reform experience, a choice that poses problems. So far, we have been unsuccessful at retrieving data on the performance of investments in Romania. As a result, the simple model presented remains highly unfounded. We intend to continue my research in finding the right grounds for the assumptions we are making here. All the figures and assumption we have made are only half-based on Romanian realities concerning policy and economy. We recognise that even with the correct complete real data, the approach can appear as simplistic. The assumptions needed are huge — ie. predictions for more 40 years. However, its simplicity is seductive, The time span can be easily modified to fit decision making agenda and it could represent a simple method of assessing the need to shift percentages between pillars, prompting for more econometric analysis. REFERENCES Barr, N. (1994), “Labour Markets and Social Policy in Central and Eastern Europe. The Transition and Beyond.”, World Bank, Oxford University Press Barr, N. (1998), “The Economics of the Welfare State", Oxford University Press, Oxford Chand, S.K. and A. Jaeger (1999), “Reform Options for Pay-as-you-go Public Pension Systems”, Social Protection Discussion Paper no. 9927, World Bank. Chon, A, M. Gora and M. Rutkowski (1999), "Shaping Pension Reform in Poland: Security Through Diversity", Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 9923, World Bank, Washington D.C Fos, L. (1994), “Old-Age Security in Transitional Economies”, World Bank Working Paper No. 1257, Washington, D.C Gora, M (2001), “Polish Approach to the Pension Reform”, OECD 2000 Private Pensions Conference No.3, Private Pensions Series, 227-246, OECD Heller, P.S and C. Keller (2001), “Social Sector Reforms in Transition Countries", IMF Working Paper, WP/01/35, International Monetary Fund Holzmann, R. (1994), "Funded and Private Pensions for Eastern European Countries in Transition?” Pension System Features and Options for Reform Conference, Rio de Janeiro Holzmann, R_ (1999), "The World Bank Approach to Pension Reform", Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 9807, World Bank, Washington D.C Mesa-Lago, C. (1997), “Social Welfare Reform in the Context of Economic-Political Liberalization: Latin American Cases”, World Development 4/97, 497-517. Mihaita, E. 1, (2001), “Lessons from the Latin American Pension Reforms: Developments in Central and Eastern Europe”, Managing Economic Transition Network Working Paper Series WPO01/04, Manchester Metropolitan University Business School, Manchester National Bank of Romania (2002), Monthly Bulletin 09/2002, Bucharest National Institute of Statistics (N.LS.) (2091) ~ “Romanian Statistical Yearbook 2000”, Bucharest World Bank (1994), “Averting the Old-Age Crisis: Policies to Protect the Old and Promote Growth”, World Bank, Washington D.C. 46INFORMATION, COMPLEXITY, AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT Niculae V. Mihaita, Academy of Economic Studies, Romania Maurice Yolles, Liverpool John Moores University, United Kingdom ABSTRACT Information is manifested through structured methods of inquiry, and in the systems domain. there has been a great deal of exploration into methods that create information. However, methodological exploration into the creation of knowledge is less well developed. One knowledge creation cycle was individually developed in Romania by Stefan Odobleja Paul Postelnicu. In this paper we illustrate another developed by Nonaka and Takeuchi who operates a constructivist process through a positivist structure. A ferent critical approach for knowledge creation comes from viable systems that are not susceptible to this schizophrenia 1, INFORMATION AND COMPLEXITY Microstructural variety that occurs in time occurs when the relationships between elements of spatial microstructures change over time. Another way of saying this is that situations have dynamic events. Simple dynamic situations can be seen in terms of their cause-effect relationships. In complex situations there may be many causes that generate perceived effects, and they may not occur in simple relationships. There is a view that complexity begets complexity, when people expect complex situations to have complex causes. Cohen and Stewart (1994) refer to the principle of “conservation of complexity”, when people adhere to a simple cause-effect rule that is not often born out in practice. In certain circumstances systems act as amplifiers so that simple causes can have fall-out consequences that are quite complex and lead to chaos, There is also the idea of antichaos, proposed by Stuart Kauffman. Here, complex causes produce simple effects indicating that complexity can diminish as well as increase Within any complex situations we usually also find we have chaos, “Now that science is looking, chaos seems to be everywhere” (Gleick, 1987, pS). In complex spatial situations, chaos occurs when unexpected variety is seen that that has no logical or relational basis for a viewer. In complex dynamic situations, chaos amplifies tiny differences hidden in the detail of the complexity, and enables the unexpected to become the predominant. Lack of expectation can be ameliorated if potential information inherent in complex situations is realised. The notion that complexity exists and can be dealt with takes us away from traditional views about how our organisations function. The rise of the industrial revolution was a period when we thought that we knew everything about the world in which we live. It adopted what we now call mechanistic or simple thinking. Today, we realise that things are more complex We have been surprised by our accidental discoveries in science, and the best-laid plans of our organisations tend to fall to rain in the longer term. The relatively new paradigm of complexity (proposed at the tum of the century) is able to capture more of the interactive subtleties that appear to exist around us, and this is captured in systems thinking. While machine age thinking adopts analysis through reductionism, sees cause-affect relationships, and is deterministic, a systems view seeks synthesis after analysis, and in doing so seeks to 47promote a broad picture that is perspective sensitive. It allows for interactivity and unpredeterminable variation, and distinct and changing views. The paradigm supported in this paper is that of viable systems theory. It is sufficiently ich to enable organisations to be modelled in such a way as to explore how they might "successfully" operate in complex dynamic environments. The notion of success may be seen as related to an organisation being viable in relation to what it does, and today there is a view that this can be facilitated through the creation and use of knowledge. 2. VIABLE SYSTEMS ‘A viable system is an active, purposeful, and adaptive organisation that can operate in complex situations and survive. Since complex situations entail variety differentiation, in surviving a viable system responds to changing situations by generating sufficient variety through self-organisation to deal with the situational! variety it encounters (called requisite variety). It is often said in the cybernetic literature that variety is a measure of complexity. ‘A viable organisation is able to support adaptability and change while maintaining stability in its behaviour. In particular an organisation is viable if it can maintain stable states of behaviour as it adapts to perturbations from its environment. Now, the environment can be differentiated into a suprasystem of interacting organisations that exists in #fs environment. Such organisations are normally considered to be autonomous, in that they are taken to be analytically and empirically independent from one another. What constitutes independence is a matter of practical requirement that enables, for instance, measurements to be taken from a given organisation without conceptually complicating them with data from other organisations. The question of whether an organisation in a suprasystem of them is indeed autonomous, is one of estimating its degree of interactivity with the other organisations. It is perspective driven, and is ultimately axiomatic. Viable organisations seek ways of improving their ability to survive in complex situations. This is often coupled with the idea that they have fluid knowledge banks, and organisational survival hinges upon an ability to create and manage knowledge. Knowledge creation/recognition is therefore of prime importance to organisations The idea of knowledge creation is closely related to that of learning. A learner (who may be seen as an individual or organisation), will undertake viable learning if there is an ability to maintain stable learning behaviour. The caveat is that the learner is able to adapt to changes in a given learning environment that alters the learning situation. Whether a learner can adapt to the changes in the learning environment is a function of that learner's plastic limit. In the systems literature, when perturbations push it beyond this limit, the system either changes its form (incrementally through morphogenesis, or dramatically through metamorphosis) or dies. As an example of this, a learner studying on a university course who is struggling “dies” in this context when s/he leaves the course prematurely (fails?) because new learning behaviours cannot be established. If a viable organisation survives (Odobleja, 1938-1939, Postelnicu, 1945) then it is able to change its form and thus its behavioural potential, to adapt. Knowledge creation is associated with different worldviews. They are relative to the institutions that one is attached to in a given society, and they change as the institutional realities change (Berger and Luckman, 1966). Thus, worldview has a view or perspective of the perceived behavioural world that is determined by cultural and other attributes of the viewers. Through a process of socialisation, a view is formed within the institutions one is attached to in a given society, and they change as the institutional realities change. Worldviews may be shared by a group of people, though when this occurs the individuals each retain their own realities while using common models to share meaning. Further, worldviews 48save boundaries that are generated within the belief system’ and cognitive space of their yiewholders, and as a result we can explore worldviews in terms of their knowledge attributes. In developing on from and relating the work of Checkland and Scholes (1990) and Kuhn (1970), two types of worldviews may be defined, informal (weltanschauung), and “ormal (paradigm). By formal we are referring to the expression of ideas through language. A ‘ormalisation enables a set of explicit statements (propositions and their corollaries) to be nade about the beliefs and other attributes that enable (more or less) everything that must be axpressed, to be expressed in a self-consistent way. Informal worldviews are more or less composed of a set of undeclared assumptions and propositions, while formal ones are more or ess declared. Both are by their very nature bounded, and thus constrain the way in which yerceived situations can be described. Now paradigms can change (Yolles, 1999, Kuhn, 1970), so that the nature of the constraint is subject to a degree of change - however bounded { might be. Consequently, the generation of knowledge is also constrained by the capacities and belief systems of the worldviews The idea of a worldview (Yolles, 1999) is that it ‘a) is culture centred, ‘b) has cognitive organisation (beliefs, values, and attitudes) are its attributes, {c) has normative and cognitive control of behaviour or action that can be differentiated from each other, (d) it has a cognitive space of concepts, knowledge and meaning that is strongly linked to culture, Worldviews interact, and following the cybernetic tradition, this interaction can be placed in a cognitive domain that drives the purposeful adaptive activity system. The system has form, thus has structure, process and associated behaviour. It is assigned to an energetic oehavioural domain. The knowledge related cognitive domain is the “cognitive consciousness” of the system that it drives. According to Yolles (1999). the two domains are connected across a gap that we refer to as the transformational or organising domain, and that may be subject to surprises. It is strategic in nature, and operates through information (figure 1). The three cognitive, organising, and behavioural domains are analytically and empirically independent. This model can be applied to any purposeful adaptive activity system by distinguishing between cognitive, strategic, and behavioural aspects of a situation Paradigen (formal worldview) Formation Cognitive Jconsolidation doneain interpectation Weltanschauung Ginformal worldview) {clletion rear Figure 1: The Relationship between the Behavioural and Cognitive Domains in a Viable System This defines the basis of viable systems (as defined by Yolles) that, through transformational self-organising processes, are able to support adaptability and change while maintaining stability in their behaviour. In a plastic organisation the nature of that behaviour may change, and in so doing a viable system will maintain behavioural stability. 4”The second part of the definition for information derives from Information Theory. It supports the idea that if the entropy of a situation is increased, structures become less differentiated. Entropy may usefully be thought of as a lack of information (Brillouin, 1967, p.160). In a well ordered situation there is a high probability of finding differentiation. If this is expressed in terms of distinct microstructures (that is, microscopically distinct structures), then they are differentiated through the boundaries or frames of reference that distinguish them. If a viewer is to be able to recognise that these boundaries or frames of reference are differentiable, then that viewer must be able to adopt concepts (that is, characteristics of knowledge) that enable differentiation. When Brillouin considers entropy, he is more interested in the possibility of microstructures arising in a process of negative entropy (or negentropy), that by its very nature connects it to an information process. Our interest is not so much concerned with the possibility of negentropy, but more with viewer perceived negentropy, that is the perception of microstructures arising. In taking this route, we shall not worry about whether the situation itself has a changing negentropy. Whether or not it has is irrelevant for an explanatory process, because what is important is the ability to perceive (and in quantitative terms to measure) any changes in negentropy. Microstructure differentiation can be seen if a viewer knows what to look for. That is, patterns of meaning operate to provide a perspective from which information is sought. The perceived lack of information about a situation, with a given level of complexity, introduces the possibility of seeing greater complexity (through perceiving microstructure variety). However in practice, a viewer may not be able to distinguish one microstructure from another. Since the perception of any one of these different microstructures can actually always be realised, the lack of information corresponds to a perception of disorder in the hidden variety. Traditional interest has been in Shannon information as a form of negentropy (Brillouin, 1967), but more recently other definitions of information have been highlighted, including that of Fisher Information from the 1920s (Frieden, 1999). This derives from measurement theory, and has interests in “imperfect observation - where views of situations are viewer based (i.e., local). Fundamentally, it is a measure of indeterminancy. A traditional view in finding information is to seck data, and this leads us to seek an appreciation of the relationship between data and information, and indeed between information and knowledge. Such a relationship is proposed in figure 2. Here, data can be processed into information (called data information) through the application of patterns of meaning that relate to organisational purpose. Data processing is also constrained by criteria of what constitutes a processing need. Information also exists phenomenologically, through the very microstructural variety differentiation that exists in a structured situation. The coalescing process that converts from information to knowledge through some form of distillation is one that occurs through the renewal of patterns of meaning that constitutes knowledge. The creation of explicit knowledge is often seen as a process of storing and indexing information. However, these patterns can also occur mentally as tacit knowledge. Knowledge also enables context to be defined in a richer way, and this affects both data processing and the distillation of information into new knowledge by enriching existing patterns. The model given in figure 2 leads to questions about our understanding of knowledge creation, and has consequences for the way in which we see knowledge development in organisations. For instance, how and through what means are the pattems of meaning formed that enable data to be processed, and information to be coalesced. Further exploration of knowledge processes within organisations can be developed within the context of knowledge management. 50Data Bank with patterns of meaning|a———{ "Bank of Knowledge Patterns \ i Z > Data }4[ Processing || Information [~s| Coalescing [+ Knowledge Asoltectin | [Occurs trough | Set ofsymbols that JRcacwing patierss | | Paterns of of symbol pattems of lnsvemeoning S-relatd lof meaning rrough| | meaning that tat are moaning that relate| hioaction, & enable relating new that connect to devoid of topurpose & are | [variety diferatation | finformation to pater of belie meaning criteria constsinod | [within complexity esstng patterns of lknowladge Poedback to werkiview & ralefintin oferteia and context Figure 2: Relationship between data, information and knowledge 3. KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT ‘The management of knowledge is becoming an important area of interest. However, the question of what constitutes knowledge management may be posed in different ways (Allee, 1997), A traditional meaning approach discusses questions of ownership, control, and value, with an emphasis on planning. Another view is that knowledge is organic, and has a flow, a self-organising process, and patterns, This latter approach explores how knowledge emerges, and how the patterns change. Also, in an organisational context, what happens to an organisation's knowledge if a knowledgeable and wise employee leaves, and how can an organisation manage to capture that. Knowledge is increasingly recognised as an important organisational asset (Iles, 1999). Its creation, dissemination and application is often now seen asa critical source of competitive advantage (Allee, 1997; Lester, 1996) Knowledge creation is an important consideration for organisations, However, knowledge renewal is a phrase that is also seen as important. This includes both knowledge creation and evacuation. In the former, knowledge is seen to be important for competitive advantage, and in the latter old knowledge is often seen to be of little value in changing situations, This implies the need for self-reflection on knowledge and on the learning process Following a tradition supported by Ravetz (1971), Nonaka and Takeuchi (1995, p.8) distinguish between two types of knowledge: explicit and tacit (table 2). Tacit knowledge includes cognitive and technical elements. Cognitive elements operate through mental models that are working worldviews that develop through the creation and manipulation of mental analogies. Mental models like schemata, paradigms, perspectives, beliefs and viewpoints, according to Nonaka and Takeuchi, help individuals perceive and define their world, The technical element of tacit knowledge includes concrete know-how, crafts, and skills. However, explicit knowledge is about past events or objects "there and then", and is seen to be created sequentially by "digital" activity that is theory progressive. Nonaka and Takeuchi (Ibid.) develop on this to create what has become perhaps the most well known model for knowledge creation, referred to as the SECI model of knowledge creation and illustrated in figure 3. Tt derives from their model of the conversion process between tacit and explicit knowledge, and results in a cycle of knowledge creation. The conversion process involves four processes: socialisation, externalisation, combination, and internalisation, all of which convert between tacit and/or explicit knowledge. Socialisation is the processes by which synthesised knowledge is created through the sharing of experiences that people have as they develop shared mental models and technical skills. Externalisation comes next and occurs as tacit knowledge is made explicit. Here, the creation of conceptualknowledge occurs through knowledge articulation, in a communication process that uses language in dialogue and with collective reflection. The uses of expressions of communication are often inadequate, inconsistent, and insufficient Table 1: Typology of knowledge: Expression of Explicit Knowledge ‘Tacit Knowledge knowledge type Objective Subjective Rationality (mind) Experiential (body) Nonaka and | Sequential (there and then) —_| Simultaneous (here and now) Takeuchi Drawn from theory (digital) | Practice related (analogue) Codified, formally Personal, context specific, hard to transmittable in systematic _| formalise and communicate. Cognitive language. Relates to past (mental models), technical (concrete know-how), vision of the future, mobilisation process Formal and transferable, Informal, determined through contextual deriving in part from context _| experience. It will be unique to the viewer Alternative related information having the experience, Not transferable established into definable ‘except through recreating the experiences patterns. The context is that engendered the knowledge for others, therefore part of the patterns, | and then the knowledge gained will be different, Figure 3: The SECI cycle of knowledge creation (Nonaka and Takeuchi, 1995) From ‘To Tacit Tacit Socialisation Externalisation Creates sympathised | Creates conceptual knowledge knowledge through the | through knowledge articulation sharing of experiences, and | using language. Dialogue and the development of mental | collective reflection needed. models and technical skills. Language unnecessary Explicit Internatisation Combination Creates operational | Creates systemic _knowledge knowledge through learning | through the systemising of ideas. by doing. Explicit knowledge | May involve many media, and can like manuals or verbal stories | lead to new knowledge through helpful adding, combining & categorising They leave gaps between images and expression while promoting reflection and interaction. It therefore triggers dialogue. The next process is combination, when explicit knowledge is transformed through its integration by adding, combining and categorising knowledge. This integration of knowledge is also seen as a systemising process. Finally, in the next process explicit knowledge is made tacit, by its internafisation. This is a learningprocess, which occurs through the behavioural development of operational knowledge. It uses explicit knowledge like manuals or verbal stories where appropriate. “The different types of knowledge process are seen as phases in a knowledge creation cycle. This is driven by infention, seen as an aspiration to a set of goals. Autonomy is another requirement that enables the knowledge cycle to be driven. This increases the possibility of motivation to create new knowledge. There are three other conditioning factors, One is the need of fluctuation and creative chaos. This can generate signals of ambiguity and redundancy that inhibits the “improvement” of knowledge. The sharing of redundant information promotes a sharing of tacit knowledge when individuals sense what others are trying to articulate. Finally, requisite variety is needed if an actor is to deal with complexity. Thus, five factors condition the knowledge cycle enabling it to maintain developmental motion, REFERENCES Allee,V. 1997, The Knowledge Evolution. Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford Berger, P., Luckman, T., 1966. The Social Construction of Reality. Penguin, Brillouin, L., 1967, Science and Information Theory. Academic Press, NY. Cohen, J., Stewart, 1, 1994, The Collapse of Chaos: discovering simplicity in a complex world. Viking, London Checkland, P'B., Scholes,J., 1990, Soft Systems Methodology in Action. John Wiley & Son, Chichester Dragan, J.C., 1993, Odobleja. Aparitia ciberneticii generalizate pe pamdnt roménesc, Editura Europa Nova, Bucuresti Friedan, R.,1999, Physics from Fisher Information: A Unification, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Gleick, J., 1987, Chaos, Sphere Books Ltd., London Iles, P., 1999, Knowledge Management, Organisational Learning and HR Strategy: A Model and Case Studies. In Kaluza, J., (ed.), Strategic Management and its Support by Information Systems, Technical University of Ostrava Faculty of Economics, Czech Republic Kuhn, $.T., 1970, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago. Lester, T., 1996, Minding Your Organisation’s Knowledge Base. Human Resources, July/August Lin, N., 1973, The Study of Communication. The Bobs-Merril Company, Inc., Indianapolis, NY Luhmann, N., 1995, Social Systems, Stanford University Press, California. Marshall, S.P., 1995, Schemes in Problem Solving Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Meehan, J., 1999, Knowledge Management: A Case of Quelling Rebellion? Critical Management Studies Conference, UMIST, July Nonaka, 1, Takeuchi, H., 1995, The Knowledge-Creating Company: How Japanese Companies Create the Dynamics of Innovation. Oxford University Press, New York Odobleja, $t.,1938-1939, Psychologie Consonantiste, Voll 1938, Vol Il 1939, Librairie Maloine, Paris. Odobieja St, 1976, Psihologia consonantistd si cibernetica, Editura Scrisul Romanesc, ‘taiova. Postelnicu, P., 1945, Ipoteza cercului vicios, in Telecomunicapii, Bucuresti Ravetz, JR, 1971, Scientific Knowledge and its Social Problems, Oxford University Press, teprinted by Penguin Books in 1973, Middlesex, EnglandRoszak, T., 1986, The Cult of Information: a Neo-Ludite Treatise on High-Tech, Artificial Intelligence, and the True Art of Thinking. University of California Press, Berkeley Sakaiya, T., 1991, The Knowledge-Value Revolution. Kodansha, New York. Toffler, A\, 1990, Powershift: Knowledge, Wealth and Violence at the Edge of the 21% Century. Bantom, New York Yolles, M1, 1999, Management Systems: a Viable Approach. Financial Times Pitman, London Yolles, ML, 1999a, Towards a Viable Systems Theory of Joint Ventures, Systemist, 21,2,63- 80 34ORGANISATIONS AND VIABLE KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT Maurice Yolles', Liverpool John Moores University, United Kingdom Niculae V. Mihaita’, Academy of Economic Studies, Romania ABSTRACT Organisations experience complex situations that affect their ability to survive in the longer term. Complex situations are full of uncertainty and lack of knowledge and clarity. It is through the manifestation of information and the creation of knowledge that complexity can be addressed, thus enabling organisations the possibility of greater viability. Information is masnifested through structured methods of inquiry, and in the systems domain there has been a great deal of exploration into methods thet create information. 1. A VIABLE APPROACH TO KNOWLEDGE CREATION The structured spiral of knowledge creation offered by Nonaka and Takeuchi adopts a positivist perspective. An altemative critical approach is possible that links closely with the viable system model. In addressing this, we note that each of the three domains have associated with them its own knowledge process, one connected with cognition, one with organising, and one with behaviour. This notion is consistent with Marshall (1995), whose interest lies in knowledge schema, Schema have four catagories, (1) They are the mental organisation of individual's knowledge and experience that allows hinvher to recognise experiences that are similar (2) They access a generic framework that contains the essential elements of all these similar experiences. (3) They use of this framework to plan solutions. (4) They have the ability to utilise skills and procedures to execute the solution. For this purpose. Marshall identifies three types of knowledge * Identification knowledge — the facts and concepts making up the knowledge domain * Elaboration knowledge — the relationships between the individual knowledge components and the way they are organised » Execution knowledge - the conceptual skills and procedures required to execute an activity Marshall does not attempt to address knowledge creation, though we shall do so through our own model. We consider that in social group situations, knowledge creation occurs through a process of knowledge migration from one worldview to another It is an identification knowledge process The basic knowledge management model is as given in figure 1. It links and depicts the three fundamental phases of the knowledge process migration, appreciation, and action. Migration is associated with the cognitive domain, appreciation with the organising domain, and action with the behavioural domain The way that migration occurs is conditioned by cognitive influence, appreciation though cognitive purpose, and action through cognitive intention. Each phase process has an input and an output, A feedback control process is able to condition each phase process directly, or through its input The way that each phase process is conditioned by the feedback contro! is represented symbolically in figure | by a loop around the process bubble, the explicit meaning of each return loop being shown in figure 2Res ia know ion oF lsdgutrecuniv2) purpose Knovsladge \, aeprosaton . eS TEARS rusia) Figure 1. The Knowledge Cycle ona monitoring viteria Figure 2. Basic form of the Control Model Control processes not only condition phase processes. They can also be responsible for re- scheduling them in the overall knowledge cycle Within perspectives of traditional positivism, it is normal to consider controls in simple terms, but they may also be susceptible to complexity and chaos as illustrated in table I (Yolles. 1999). This has implication for the development of a chaotic activation of a phase that is not sequentially ordered, and that can occur when complexity is affective Table 1: Distinguishing between Simple and Complex Feedback Control Loops. {_ Simple Terms of Control Likely to be linear and have a steady state behaviour with clear relationships between the inputs and outputs of process instability will probably be predeterminable and boundable. The actuator that can take action to regulate the process willbe deterministic or involve rational expectation. Indications — of Complex Terms of Control Likely to be non-linear and far froma steady state behaviour Instability may appear without prior indication The relationships between inputs and outputs will in general not be strictly causal, but unclear. The effects of the actuator will be uncertain It is not always the case that standards, norms, and objectives that drive a control process will be well defined. It is not uncommon for them to be fuzzy whether or not it is believed that they are well defined, and it may be that such a belief can only be validated retrospectively Even if they are well defined, it may be that their defiaition entails some level of unrealised flexibility. Measures of performance may be inadequate to indicate the nature of the outputControl processes, while often considered in terms of positivist or postpositivist paradigms, may also be seen from a critical theory perspective. To do this we invoke the propositions that | (a) knowledge that enables the nature of a control process to be understood is local and worldview dependent (b) empirical and reference control criteria are worldview dependent, value laden, and will be susceptible to ideology and ethics {) conditioning control processes are implemented in a local inquiter-relative way These propositions have implications for the way in which the social group, subject to the Phase process conditioning: (i) responds to the control situations, and (ii) appreciates the need of semantic communications that make it broadly meaningful, ‘The conditioning processes of the knowledge cycle are illustrated in the figures 3-5, In figure 3. we consider the control process involved with knowledge migration. This occurs through the development of (lifeworld) interconnections between the worldviews of the actors ina given suprasystem, and is the result of semantic communication, As part of the process of knowledge migration, new knowledge is locally generated for an actor While thie may be Seen as part of a socialisation process, it may also be seen as an actor local spontaneous thing when the process of knowledge migration operates as knowledge creation trigger. Joeal actor contagion of Knowbedge /ask yosstions | knowledge to rsation,\andcoont relevant others \/ eadapeational Te basis through — innovation & a i /Coamnive it Koad iter deep learain iniens ]*Gnowiadge oF aie oe X\ J cuttural & soci Sta as hoowice — ‘nluencs {toon paso to Si has tained mn shat a \ { a for ature ase / Worldview interconneetion Berween actors through Semantic communication ‘empirical criteria detining concept, Figure 3. control model for knowledge migration Newly migrated knowledge may be shared and re-shared within the suprasystem, becauise the new knowledye created by one actor will have a local definition ther va be different for others. As a result, the originally migrated knowledge will have to be re-migrated in @ Feedback loop. This is fundamentally consistent with the notion of paradigm Wr be gageability, since every worldview will have its own distinct pattern of meaning that Will be different from every ‘other one. This does not stop the knowledge from being _Comtasious” to relevant others within a given suprasystem through the continuous seme Communication process that they participate in, that involves recursive migration (thas fe ra, i knowledge. Each recursive knowledge Polity, a core aspect of politics, acts a8 a filter on knowledge migration It is concerned with an organised condition of social (or civil) order. Polity is connected to politics through the latter's interest in the causal relationships relating to behaviour, that enables what may be Teferred to as social engineering Within the context of knowledge about the enanen of order, vidual knowledge components and the way they are organised within a schema). Polity knowledgecan be seen to relate to the relationships between individual knowledge components as perceived by an actor to be possessed by the other actors, and the relative way that they are organised. It would thus seem to be an active recogniser of identification knowledge (Ibid.) ~ i.e., the concepts and patterns of meaning that make up knowledge. When polity knowledge is applied to other actors, it enables us to decide about them. Sometimes, such decisions involve “false” assumptions that are not representative of the identification knowledge of other actors. This can inhibit the process of knowledge migration, since recognition of knowledge differences is needed before knowledge migration can occur. When no such recognition occurs, then one reason may be that the worldview of the viewer may be closed (Yolles, 1999) Measures can be attempted. Contagion can be evaluated by examining to whom knowledge has been passed, and whether it has been retained for use. Cultural and social influences can be evaluated by examining beliefs, values and attitudes (cognitive organisation). One way of doing this is to examining resistance to the adoption of new patterns of cognitive organisation, Social influences represent knowiedges about the way in which social processes operate. This dimension can be measured in terms of not social meaning, but the reticence that actors have to the introduction of new social meaning The process of knowledge appreciation (figure 4) can follow knowledge migration. An appreciation of how migrated knowledge can be of use to a relevant other is essential if they are to be able to harness it within a behavioural world. Knowledge appreciation by relevant others is dependent upon knowledge contagion to these others. However, this is filtered through knowledge that activates weltanschauung derived ideology and ethics. In addition, the evaluation reference criteria derive trom knowledge about intention and logico-relational cognitive purposes. Interestingly, this connects with the Marshall (1995) idea of planning knowledge - the knowledge of which pathways to sclect in order to achieve a solution Level ave // application of Contain of kaowledee jatormation” sean know that to relevant elie ration, eeivonmsnt alee supers Se ntctiee and RO substcture — } (eg. technology f \ \ purpose gf iment logic & (measures of < planaing & organising. a ) Spas fare” empirical criteria detining concept Figure 4 Control tor knowledge appreciation A consequence of the process of knowledge appreciation is its intelligent application We say intelligent, because its obverse, rote application may not require knowledge appreciation or even migration, Knowledge application can occur behaviourally within a superstructure and a substructure. Superstructure identities the institutionalised political and cultural aspects of a situation, and is also issue related. Substructure is task orientated, and relates to the mode and means of production (e.g., technology) and the social relations (eg, roles and their relationships) that accompany them, Measurements for this control process are qualitative, requiring an inquirer to search the local environment for ways in which knowledge has been applied (directly or indirectly) to varieties of situation. The process of knowledgeable action (figure 5) is dependent upon the application of knowledge. Knowledgeable action is action that occurs with awareness of what is being done within a behavioural world Knowledgeable action in a situation is dependent uponknowledge application to the tasks that are perceived to require to be addressed within the situation, This is filtered through knowledge that activates weltanschauung derived emancipative capabilities, that enable knowledgeable action to occur. The evaluation reference criteria derive from knowledge about actor interests through work and interaction. It relates to the Marshall (1995) idea of execution knowledge, that is seen as the computational skills and procedures required to execute a behaviour A consequence of the process of knowledgeable action that derives from knowledge migration is the creation of new definition of relationships between identifiable actors. It gives meaning to work related activities, and particularly with respect to those that involve interaction. Measures within this control loop with respect to knowledgeable action can occur by examining the environment in which that action has occurred. Work and interaction knowledge that conditions knowledgeable action can be explored by examining how work and interaction processes change with the introduction of new knowledge Knowledge about emancipation can be determined through in-depth questioning of relevant others. When the above control loops operate to make process changes, morphogenic changes occur in the knowledge phases of our knowledge cycle. When the control processes are complex and control action fails, knowledge process metamorphosis can occur (Yolles, 1999). As an example of a metamorphic change, a new concept may be born during the process of knowledge migration. New definitions of Local actor relationships Knowledge date {clase between actors application creation nsironment), Wlevelops teamworking & customer relations, ‘enables worldview edge about degree of emancipation filter interconnection} JP Row edge ot actor Fork $interstion | ‘Scrnmunications chanel (sting ot ise ita | gests books support a “ L empirical criteria defining coreg Figure 5. Control model for knowledgeable action 2. CONCLUSION There is a difference in the way knowledge creation is structured, whether one adopts a positivist or another epistemology. The ideas of Nonaka and Takeuchi would appear quite influential in the development of a theory of knowledge creation. While they are constructivist in their perception of each phase process, they are overall structurally positivist. It is not uncommon to have this type of usually benign methodological schizophrenia, though it may well be more aesthetic not to An alternative approach that is fundamentally critical (even though it entertains the notion of control) and that does not suffer trom the above problem, derives from viable systems theory This does not see knowledge creation as a set of sequential steps, but rather as a set of phases that are constantly tested and examined through possibly complex feedback. Shifts from one phase to another may occur according to the control phenomena that drive particular perspectives ‘There are parallels between our proposed knowledge cycle (figure 1) and that of Nonaka and Takeuchi (1995). In the former knowledge can be created spontaneously within a nigration process, and any socialisation process that occurs is through communication that may be seen to act as a trigger for new knowledge Unlike that of Nonaka and Takeuchi. our cycle is not required to be sequential continuous relative to a conditioning process. Rather, theprocess of continuity is transferred to the communication process, and knowledge creation is cybernetic, passing through Feedback processes that can change the very nature of the patterns of meanings that were initiated through the semantic communications REFERENCES Allee. V. 1997, The Knowledge Evolution. Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford Brillouin, L., 1967, Science and Information Theory. Academic Press. NY Cohen, J, Stewart, £, 1994, The Collapse of Chaos: discovering simplicity in a complex world. Viking, London Checkland, P'B., Scholes,J., 1990, Soft Systems Methodology in Action. John Wiley & Son, Chichester Dimbleby, R., Burton, G., 1985, More than Words: an Introduction to Communication Routledge, London Fivaz, R., 2000, Why Consciousness, a Causological Account, Syst. Res. Behav. Sci, vol. 17, no.6 Friedan, R.,1999, Physics from Fisher Information: A Unification. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Gleick, J., 1987, Chaos, Sphere Books Ltd., London Habermas, J, 1987, The Theory of Communicative Action Vol. 2, Polity Press, Cambridge, UK Holsti, K J., 1967, International Politics, a Framework for Analysis. Prentice Hall Iles, P, 1999, Knowledge Management, Organisational Learning and HK Strategy: A Model and Case Studies. In Kaluza, J., (ed ), Stategic Management ancl its Support by Information Systems, Technical University of Ostrava Faculty of Economics, Czech Republic Koestler, A, 1967, The Ghost in the Machine. Picador, London Kuhn, $.T., 1970, The Siructure of Sciemific Revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago. Lester, T., 1996, Minding Your Organisation's Knowledge Base. Humarr Resources, July/August Luhmann, N., 1995, Socieal Systems, Stanford University Press, California Marshall, $.P., 1995, Schemes in Problem Solving Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Meehan, J, 1999, Knowledge Management’ A Case of Quelling Rebellion? Critical Management Studies Conference, UMIST, July Nonaka, [, Takeuchi, H., 1995, The Knowledge-Creating Company: How Japanese Companies Create the Dynamics of Imovation, Oxford University Press, New York Ravetz, JR. L971, Scienific Knowledge ant its Social Problems, Oxtord University Press, reprinted by Penguin Books in 1973, Middlesex, England Roszak, T, 1986, The Cult of Information’ a Neo-Ludite Treatise on High-Tech, Artificial Intelligence, and the True Art of Thinking, University of California Press, Berkeley Sakaiya, T., 1991, The Knowledge-Value Revolution. Kodansha, New York Tofiler, A, 1990, Powershifi: Knowledge. Weulth and Violence at the Edge of the 21! Century, Baniom, New York Yolles, MI, 1999, Management Systems: a Vieble Approach Financial Times Pitman, London Yolles, M1, 1999a, Towards a Viable Systems Theory of Joint Ventu 80 Sivemtist, 21,2,63-ASUPRA CARACTERIZARII FLUXURILOR DE TRAFIC RETELELE DE TRANSPORT Prof.dr.ing. Serban Raicu Universitatea Politehnica Bucuresti, Facultatea Transporturi REZUMAT: Fluxurile de trafic in cazul transporturilor materiale sunt eterogene, iar incercarile de modelare sau simulare pe calculator se pot realiza doar prin importante simpliticdri Lucrarea analizeaza comparativ posibilitatile de modelare a traficului in cazul infrastructurilor rutiere gi respectiv, feroviare. Organizarea fluxurilor de trafic este sarcina gestionarului infrastructurii insa poate avea ca efect o circulatie reglat doar in cazul infrastructurilor feroviare unde utilizarea se bazeazA pe un plan de mers gi pe conducere operativa Circulatia rutier§ se autoregleaza in functie de starea si conditiile infrastructurii, a vehiculului, dar si in functie de gradul de utilizare, omul comportindu-se ca un element de autoreglare a sistemului autovehicul-cale de rulare. ABSTRACT: The traffic flows for material transport, are extremely etherogen; their modeling and computer simulation is possible only if seriously simplified This paper analyses, in a comparative way, the modeling possibilities of the traffic flow structure in the case of road and railway infrastructure The traffic flow management is the infrastructure administrator's responsibility, but it can produce a strictly controlled transport only in the railway case The use of the railway infrastructure is based on train schedules and operational management through control and command functions In the case of roads and highway infrastructure, the transport is selt-controlled; it depends on the infrastructure and vehicle conditions, and the level of usage The users represent themselves a part of the vehicle-road system Cuvinte cheie: flux de teafi reglata, circulajie autoreglata structura flux de trafie, organizare flux de trafic, cicculatie 6. INTRODUCERE Fluxurile de trafic se caracterizeaza prin marime, structura si mod de organizare Marimea, exprimata pria numar de unitati de trafic care circula intr-o anume perivada o sectiune a refelei sau prin intervalul de timp intre entitatile de trafic care se succed a ‘ctul unui numar mare de lucrari de specialitate pe cand cetelalte doua caracteristici facut ol Sunt adesea extrem de pufin puse in evidenta. Lor, structurii si modului de or ‘ganizare. Je este Consacrata lucrarea de fatTabelul |. Echivalente in autoturisme Tipul vehiculului Coeficientii de echivalare in autoturisme Standarde | Standarde Proiectare Proiect: urbane rurale | sens giratoriu | semafori: a traficulu Autoturism privat, taxi, motocicleta cu 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 = atas, vehicule de marfa usoare (cu 2 axe gi pneuri simple pe puntea spate) Motociclete, scutere, motorete 0,75 1,00 0,75 0,33 Vehicule de marfa medii si grele, 2,00 3,00 2,80 1,75 cdrute trase de cai Autobuze, troleibuze, tramvaie 3,00 3,00 2,80 2,25. Biciclete 0,33 0,50 0,50 0,20 (Gursa Hobbs, 1979) in cazul infrastructurilor feroviare destinate traficului mixt eterogen (al trenurilor de diferite categorii pentru cAlatori si pentru marfuri) exprimarea debitului maxim si efectiv in unitafi de trafic preponderente presupune, ca si in cazul infrastructurii rutiere, calcule bazate pe echivalari. Datorita autoritatii administratorului infrastructurii feroviare care statueaza reguli precise de realizare a circulatiei trenurilor in care securitatea primeaza, echivalarile iau in considerare durata de ocupare a elementului infrastructurii de catre fiecare dintre categoriile de trenuri in circulatie care se deplaseaza intr-o anumit succesiune, impusa prin planul de mers. Intervalele de spatiu intre trenurile care se urmaresc nu depind, in majoritatea sistemelor de organizare a circulatiei feroviare de vitezele de circulatie. De aici decurge deosebirea dintre modul de calcul al debitului (capacititii) unei infrastructuri feroviare in raport cu cea rutiera. Daca in cazul infrastructurii rutiere debitul depinde atat de densitatea fluxului cat si de viteza acestuia, marimi caracteristice aflate intr-o anumita corelatie gi dependente de structura traficului, atunci in cazul infrastructurii feroviare singura dependent& a capacitatii maxime, pentru o anume inzestrare tehnica si un anume mod de organizare a circulatiei, este aceea data de durata de ocupare a elementului infrastructurii de cAtre fiecare categorie de tren. Durata de ocupare ins depinde, la randul sau, atat de viteza medie de deplasare a fiecdrei categorii de trenuri pe elementul considerat cat gi de succesiunea diferitelor categorii de trenuri in planul de mers. Rezulta ca structura traficului, asupra cdreia administratorului infrastructurii fi sunt permise interventii, poate constitui factor preponderent in modificarea capacitatii unei infrastructuri feroviare. In figura I este prezentati, spre exemplificare, dependenta numarului maxim de trenuri de dowd categorii, M gi P, care circulé cu diferitele viteze, Vy si Vp. mentionate pe diagrame, de structura traficului exprimata prin coeficientul a, calculat ca pondere a numarului Ny al trenurilor de categorie M in totalul trenurilor din cele doua categorii, M si P (notat pe figura cu N, ) Deoarece reteaua feroviara dispune de o conectivitate ridicata se poate presupune cd exploatarea sectiei, prezentate ca exemplu, in zona de mijloc a abscisei ar putea fi evitata. Acea structura a traficului este deosebit de nefavorabila pentru numarul maxim de trenuri care ar putea tranzita pe acea sectie1, STRUCTURA FLUXURILOR DE TRAFIC Fluxurile de trafic sunt constituite din unitati de trafic eterogene. Spatiul ocupat, viteza de deplasare sau durata de ocupare a aceluiasi element de infrastructura, sunt marimi caracteristice ale structurii fluxului de trafic. Acestea se afl4 in conexiune directa cu ripul unitétii de trafic (autoturism, camion, tractor cu remorca, autobuz, tren, rama, automotoare, nava, convoi de nave etc.), cu destinatia acesteia (pentru transport de persoane sau de marfuri), cu caracteristicile mecanice si de gabarit care la randul lor trebuie nuantate in functie de relatia “conducator- echipaj- cale de transport- mediu ambiant”. Aceasta ultima relatie genereaza factori care maresc suplimentar lipsa de omogenitate a fluxului de trafic, mai ales in cazul traficului rutier. Se au in vedere factori fiziologici ( acuitatea vizuala, forta si viteza de reactie etc.) si psihologici (precum motivatia, atentia, temperamental) aferenti conducatorilor de echipaje, dar $i factori care depind de starea tehnicd si de incdrcare a unitatii de trafic de un anume tip sau, de caracteristicile infrastructurii (variabile pe durata exploatarii) sau de conditiile ambientale (ploaie, zApada, ceata, vant, polei, mazgi), Rezulta ci fluxul de trafic, sub aspectul structurii are, cel putin pentru cazul infrastructurii rutiere, 0 asemenea specificitate spatiala gi temporara care il face aproape imposibil de reprodus cu fidelitate intr-o incercare de modelare matematica sau de simulare pe calculator. Confruntat cu o asemenea complexitate, proiectantul de infrastructuri, ca si inginerul de trafic de altfel, recurge la simplificari. Scopurile practice urmarite intervin determinant in aceste actiuni. Astfel, proiectantul de infrastructurit concepe calea de transport (din punctul de vedere al configuratiei c&ii in plan gi profil dar si al sarcinilor admise) raportandu-se la cerintele maximale ale unitatilor de trafic crora le este permis accesul, indiferent de ponderea acestora in structura traficului. Cand acelasi proiectant isi propune si dimensioneze insi debitul maxim (capacitatea) al infrastructurii proiectate, care trebuie sa exceada, intr-o anumita perspectiva, debitului necesar (efectiv) pe care infrastructura il va prelua, se va referi fie la unitatile de trafic preponderente (cazul infrastructurilor feroviare), fie la unitatile de trafic echivalente (cazul infrastructuritor rutiere). Inginerul de trafic, responsabil cu asigurarea parametrilor de calitate ai fucului (vitezA de circulatie, frecventa si durata a opririlor, siguranta a circulatiei, limitari ale efectelor externe, consumuri energetice si costuri specifice) sau cu fundamentarea strategiilor de dezvoltare a infrastructurilor si a sistemelor de dirijare a traficului isi incepe analiza prin identificarea gradului de solicitare a infrastructurii existente in acest scop, se fotosesc aceleagi unitati de trafic echivalent la care a apelat si proiectantul infrastructurii Caracterul restrans al valabilitatii acestor echivalari (in autoturisme, in cazul traficului tutier) se poate deduce gi din tabelul 1, in care se remarca valori diferentiate ale coeficientilor de echivalare in raport cu amplasamentul infrastructurii (mediu urban sau rural) si cu clementul pentru care se realizeaza proiectarea (artera rutier&, intersectie nesemaforizata sau semaforizata).Vac- viteza trenurilor de marti Ve- viteza trenurilor de cflstori 76 y= t t F Vue60 ka/h; Ve=80 kav op nD B ‘Vy¢=60 kaw/h; Vp=120 zg \ Vie80 kath; Vp=160 Copacitatea de circulate 8 0 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 o7 o8 o9 1 structura traficului o Fig.1 Variatia capacitatii de circulatie a unei sectii cu cate dub!a in functie de structura traficului (Sursa: Raicu et al. 1981) Dac& nu este posibil’ modificarea structurii traficului prin modificarea rutelor trenurilor in tranzit de 0 anume categorie (dintre cele dou considerate aici), atunci urmeaz& si se determine raportul favorabil dintre Vy si Vp pentru a obtine o valoare cat mai ridicat& pentru N,. 2. MODURI DE ORGANIZARE A FLUXURILOR DE TRAFIC 2.1. Circulatie reglata Acolo unde gestionaru! infrastructurii este investit cu responsabilitZfi depline asupra circulafiei este evident cA circulafia poartd pregnant amprenta organizari Concludent este exemplul inftastructurii feroviare a c&rei utilizare se bazeazi pe un plan de mers si o conducere operativa a circulatiei, exercitat’ prin actiuni de control ‘comanda. Pentru ca mase mari si se deplaseze cu viteze mari pe o cale prestabiliti, in condifii de siguranti, inseamna c& trebuie respectat, Piri echivoc, principiul impenetrabilitatii. Conform acestui principiu, pe o distangé de circulatie, limitati de dowd puncte de sectionare succesive a caii (stafii, halte de miscare etc.), nu se poate gasi la un moment dat decat cel mult un singur tren, care circul& cu o vitez& prestabilita. in raport cu trenul 3, de exemplu (fig.2), trenul anterior, 1, si cel urmator, 2, ca moment al sosirii, respectiy trecerii, prin stafia B, nu pot ocupa pozifii mai apropiate pe axa timpului decat pozitiile limita, dictate de m&rimea intervalului de urmdrire, respectiv aintervalului de statie. Pozitiile corespund celei mai bune utilizari in timp a resurselor acelei infrastructuri pentru succesiunea data a trenurilor. trenuri cu aceeasi viteza spatiu medie, ett in acelasi_ sens interval sy statia B tren in sens opus, cu viteza medie mai mare tren 1 ren 2 ren 3 statia A - timp interval de urmarire Fig.2 Reprezentareagrafic 4 acircula tiepe o infrastructur deroviar 4 cu cale simpl a (fragmentiintr-un grafic de circula tie) (original) 2.2. Circulatie autoreglata Dacd accesul pe infrastructura este permis tuturor mijloacelor de transport care indeplinesc anumite norme privind dimensiunile de gabarit, sarcinile pe punti, vitezele maxime gi eventual minime de circulajie, emisiile poluante, in cazul transportului rutier, de exemplu, atunci gestionarul infrastructurii nu este in masura s& stabileasca intervalele de timp si/sau spatiu intre vehicule. Accesul este permis oricand si in orice punct al infrastructurii tuturor celor care indeplinesc conditiile prescrise. Infrastructura are caracter public, fiind la dispozitia tuturor utilizatorilor. Controlul gestionarului sau al autoritatii desemnate se limiteazd la supravegherea respectarit normelor si regulilor de circulatie generale si specifice stabilite si aduse la cunostina utilizatorilor cu anticipatie si prin indicatoarele si semnete de circulatie din parcurs, Toate acestea au rolul de a-l orienta pe conducitorul mijlocului de transport in asigurarea deplinei sale securitati in circulatie dar gi a celorlati utilizatori ai acelei infrastructuri. Veriga esentiala in asigurarea sigurantei deplasirii ramane insi conducatorul echipajului, El este cel care, in functie de caracteristicile mijlocului de transport, de capacitatile psiho-motorii, de starea infrastructurii si a mediului, de densitatea circulatiei hotrigte asupra vitezei de deplasare si a spatiului faté de vehiculul anterior sau a executarii manevrei de depagire a unui vehicul mai lent, actionand in consecinta comenzile disponibile Omul se comporta ca un clement de autoreglare al sistemului autovehicul-cale de nulare. Acest rol se extinde la toti utilizatorii infrastructurii rutiere. Viteza, de la valoarea vitezei pe cale liber’, definita ca viteza maxima pe care o poate dezvolta un autovehicu! in conditii de exploatare ideale (in deplina securitate, vreme si cale de rulare favorabile circulatiei fra restrictii, fara a fi stanjenit de alti utilizatori) si cu respectarea tuturor normelor de circulatie, scade, pe msurA ce numarul de autovehicule care se aflé simultan pe 0 aceeasi portiune de intrastructura creste. 65Distanfa intre vehicule se reduce (creste numérul acestora pe unitatea de lungime- densitatea circulatiei) si ca urmare viteza, fat de cea realizata pe cale libera scade. in final, tendinfa de crestere a densitatii conduce la fluxul de trafic instabil, in coloana, cu opriri si demarari frecvente, marcat de incertitudini privind durata in care autovehiculul parcurge o portiune din infrastructura rutier’. Cunoscuta diagrama vitezi-debit (TRB, 1985), caracteristica traficului rutier, exprima sintetic actiunile de autoreglare a vitezei medii de circulatie a autovehiculelor de citre conducatorii acestora, in raport cu gradul de ocupare a acelui element al infrastructurii. Pe aceasta diagrama sunt definite, prin discretizare, in raport cu viteza medie de deplasare faté de cea corespunzitoare c&ii libere si cu usurinta in conducere cele sase niveluri de serviciu oferit de o arterd rutier’ (tab.2) Tabelul 2_ Nivelurile de serviciu ale unei artere rutiere Nivel Gradul de Viteza Gradul de | Distanta Manevra- Usurinta in de ocupare a efectiva in | solicitare a dintre bilitatea conducere serviciu | benziide | raport cu cea | capacitatii | autovehi- circulatie | realizatépe | arterci | cule{m] [] cale liber’ 7 A 4 0.86 0,35 42 foarte bun’, inalta B 7 0.81 0,54 24 bun’ inalta Cc i 0,77 0,77 16 __{_satisfic&toare_|_ugor tenionaté, D_ 16 0,66 093 1 sever limitata redus& E 25 0,43 1,00 7 extrem de extrem de ft limitata redus& F 225 <0,43 ? <7 practic nulé | cvasiinexistent a (Sursa: TRB, 1985) Actiunile de autoreglare a vitezei de deplasare a autovehiculelor pe o arter rutieré nu se limiteaza numai la dependenta de densitatea traficului. Latimea partii carosabile, a amprizei drumului, a acostamentelor, configuratia profilului longitudinal si in plan orizontal a traseului, limitarile privind distanta de vizibilitate etc. sunt determinante pentru mirimea vitezei de deplasare a autovehiculului ca si anumite caracteristici mecanice gi de gabarit. Important este si faptul c& pentru solicitari ridicate ale capacititii, normele de proiectare ale unei infrastructuri rutiere, diferentiate in raport cu viteza, isi pierd specificitatea, Pe masura ce densitatea creste, in cazul regimului de exploatare (nivelului de serviciu) E, in special vitezele medi de circulaie si debitul maxim (capacitatea) se stabilizeaza in jurul aceloragi valori (tab.3). 66Tabelul 3. Tendinta de stabilizare la aceeagi valoare a vitezei de circulatie a unei artere tutiere, indiferent de viteza proiectata Viteza proiectata Nivelul de Densitatea Viteza | Debitul asigurat {mile/h] serviciu [autoturisme [mile/h] {autoturisme echivalente/mila $i echivalente/h gi banda] banda] A 12 260 700 B 520 257 1100 c 530 254 1550 70 D $42 246 1850 E 67 230 2000 F 267 <30 instabil B 520 250 1000 c <30 247 1400 60 D <42 242 1700 E 367 230 2000 F >67 . <30 instabil c <30 243 1300 50 D <42 240 | 1600 E <67 228 1900 E <67 <28 instabil (Sursa: Slim et al., 1998) in conditii de congestie ridicat, practic indiferent de normele de proiectare ale infrastructurilor (pentru viteza de 70 mile/h, 60 mile/h sau 50 mile/h), viteza de circulatie medie nu mai depageste 30 mile/h. Cu alte cuvinte, circulafia se autoregteazd la acel nivel al vitezei, impus de conditiile de siguran{a. Tofi conducatorii de autovehicule sunt, in fond, constangi si se deplaseze in coloana cu o vitez& mai redusi decat 30 mile/h Sau, iat& cum congestia unei artere rutiere face ca respectarea unei viteze maxime de deplasare stabilite la acest nivel s& fie absolut obligatorie ~ imposibil de depasit 2.3. Cireulatia liberd Corespunde situtiei in care nu sunt prestabilite reguli privind circulatia si cand datorita intensitatii scézute a fluxului gi a lipsei interactiunilor cu infrastructura si cu mediul nu sunt prezente conexiuni inverse cu rol de autoreglare. Este ugor de observat c& pe infrastructura de transport cu rol semnificativ in cadrul infrastructurilor tehnice (Raicu et al., 1981) nu pot fi indeplinite asemenea conditii In acest mod de organizare (de fapt, de lipsc de organizare, de neinterventie a vreunei autoritati reglementatoare) pot fi incd observate, in anumite conditii, situatii ale autoreglarii 3. CONCLUZUL Fluxurile de trafic sunt constituite din unitati de trafic eterogene Spatiul ocupat, viteza de deplasare sau durata de ocupare a aceluiasi element de infrastructurd, sunt mérimi caracteristice ale structurii fluxului de trafic.Scopurile practice urmarite determina simplificarile la care recurge fie proiectantul infrastructurii, fie inginerul de trafic-in incercarile de modelare si simulare pe calculator a fluxurilor de trafic. Structura traficului poate constitui un element determinant al valorii capacitatii oricdrei infrastructuri, iar in cazul celei feroviare, poate fi chiar singura variabila la indemana administratorului infrastructurii, atunci cand intocmeste planul de mers la nivelul unei retele care prezinta conectivitate ridicata Circulatia reglata este efectul unei organizari care se poate realiza doar in cazul infrastructurii feroviare prin planul de mers si conducerea operativa Circulatia autoreglaté se intalneste in situatia utilizarii unei infrastructuri cu acces liber, cum este cea rutierA publica, cand accesul este permis in orice punct si in orice moment tuturor celor care indeplinesc anumite norme prescrise. Veriga esentiala in asigurarea sigurantei deplasarii, 0 constituie conducdtorul mijlocului de transport care se comporti ca un element de autoreglare a sistemului autovehicul-cale de rulare. BIBLIOGRAFIE 1. Hobbs, F.D. Traffic Planning and Engineering, Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1979 2. T.R.B. Highway Capacity Manual, Special Report 209, Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C, 1985 Raicu, §. Masala, Gh. Transport Feroviar. Functionare-Dezvoltare-Eficienti, Ed Stiintifica gi Enciclopedica, Bucuresti, 1981 4, Sim, M., Guest, P., Matthews, P. Traffic Engineering Design — Principles and Practice,, Amold, London, 1998 68SONDAREA CERERII DE TRANSPORT: SOLUTIE PROBABILISTICA SI CONFIRMARE DETERMINISTA Conf.dr.ing. Florian Ghionea Universitatea Politehnica Bucuresti, Facultatea Transporturi ABSTRACT The first part the paper presents the main concepts which allow the human factor to decide when one must test and how many tests it is necessary to do for obtaining the structure of the passanger urban transport demand. In the second part it is proved that numerical integration can contribute to the confirmation of a probabilistic proceeding through a non-probabilistic method, REZUMAT Prima parte a materialului prezint& conceptele care permit factorului uman s& decida cand s& efectueze o sondare si cate asemenea actiuni sunt necesare pentru obtinerea structurii cererii in transportul urban de calatori. in partea a doua a materialului se demonstreaza in ce mod integrarea numerica poate contribui la confirmarea unei proceduri probabilistice prin metode deterministe, 1. COORDONATELE PROBLEMEL O analiza critica a notiunilor de baz ale tehnologiei transportului public de calatori de pe cuprinsul unei arii urbane reprezinta alternativa care ar permite iesirea din amestecul de empirism gi rigurozitate existent in prezent in domeniul vizat. Afirmatia poate fi sustinuta printr-o serie de argumente, dintre care dou se detaseazi ca importanta + coabitarea metodelor analitice si sintetice de determinare a cererii de transport cu metodele de sondare de diferite grade de acuratete (de la cele “vizuale” pana la cele prin anchete), primatul nici uneia nefiind demonstrat; - lipsa unor repartitii teoretice capabile sa acopere prin exactitate situatia repartizarii empirice a cererii de transport zilnice (cu referire expres la bimodalitatea reprezentarii acesteia de-a lungul axei timpului) Pentru clarificarea unuia din aspectele incd neelucidate pe deplin din exploatarea curenti a sistemului de transport urban, si anume, determinarea numarului rational de actiuni de sondare aplicate cererii, se dovedesc utile cateva ipoteze de lucru : 1) cererea de transport este valoarea numarului de calatori inregistrati_in deplasare, in toate mijloacele de transport din parcul operativ, si 2) dificultatile principale intr-o exploatare relativ simpla sunt create de variatia cererii din perioadele reprezentative ale zilei [1] -fig 1, si 3) 0 activitate de sondare se incheie in 0,5 h. oo4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 timp Fig.1 Structura cererii de-a lungul zilei de exploatare (original) Unele consecinfe ale acestor ipoteze sunt : 1) numai un tip de reprezentare cu incrementare poate avea consistenta in evaluarea situafiei curente, intrucat orice instantanee surprinde si mijloace de transport in stationare, in schimb de cAlatori urcati-coborati. si jnsumarea nu are nici o relevant [2], 2) se pot defini 40 de intervale semiorare (ISH) de-a lungul zilei in activitatea de transport (4.00 - 24.00) si 3) cea mai important informatie pentru exploatare este reprezentata de valoarea maxima a cererii pe un anume ISH si abia in subsidiar structura variatiei diurne. Determinarea mumarului optim de sondaje se poate face de pe pozitii probabilistice sau de pe pozitii deterministe (se va constata ca legatura intre aceste doua pozitii este reprezentata de atitudinea exhaustiva ~ aplicata in prezent, dar evident nelucrativa) Fie r probabilitatea evenimentului “cerere maxima pe ISH™, se noteazi cu R probabilitatea ca acest eveniment sii se produca cel putin o dati intr-o serie de N. probe. Pentru valoarea N , respectiy numérul de actiuni de sondare ce trebuie efectuate astfel incat si nu se “scape” ISH de cerere maxima, statistica a oferit relatia [3] N=In(l- R)/Ind-r) (b Dar r=1/40, iar R=0,95 (sau @ =0,05), deci N=118, cifra dezarmanta prin costurile implicate. Cum numarul maxim ISH este net inferior, literatura de specialitate [2] a mentionat ca necesar si suficient 4 se efectueze N = 40 sondaje, obtinandu-se maxim de informattii CA numérul stipulat este suficient, este in afara oricdrui dubiu, od el este si necesar, este discutabil. in replica, teoria probabilitatii [3] a rezolvat aga numita problema a dimensiunii esantionului oferind (pentru o deviatie o ) relatia N=(oxZyn/tP Q) unde. Zy 9 - valoarea aleasa din domeniu! curbei normale, f = intervalul considerat de o parte side alta a mediei Astfel, pentru o= 2h gi / cat douk ISH (Z,, > fiind 1,96), rezulti N=16 adica o reducere spectaculoasi, dar. chiar neludnd in considerate c& determinarea deviafiel Inseamna de fapt esantionare suplimentara, variafia zilnicd a cererii prezinta particularitati ce 6 diferentiaza categorie de premizele calculului tocmai incheiat (in special prin existenta celor doua maxime ~ fig 1).2.SOLUTIA OPERATIONALA Se defineste probabilitatea’ p(l,) ca nivelul cererii intr-un ISH sa difere nesemnificativ fata de nivelul mediu al cererii (aproximativ 2,5% ) daca: V... sunt valorile cererii : medie, maxima, minima gi curenta (i); 4 fiind variabila timp ce individualizeaza fiecare ISH , atunci pid= = 1 Wea Vi)! Vrax ~ Vined) a) or Vive (4) nepunand nici o problema unei tratari similare Deoarece modelul este discretizat, de-a lungul zilei valoarea p(¢,) variaza in salturi, Ja momentul schimbérii ISH decidentul find creditat aprioric cu posibilitatea de stabilire a variantei: se schimba si nivelul cererii sau nu ? (actiunea pentru luarea deciziei are o durata d care va fi insd considerata ca nesemnificativa fati de celelalte durate); daca nivelul mediu al cererii se menfine (se instaleaz&), atunci nu se desfisoara nici un sondaj; dac& nu, atunci se incepe imediat un sondaj (de durata s ~ 0,Sh ), urmitoarea actiune de sondare va avea loc dupa un timp t de la terminarea ultimutui sondaj. Constructia modelului se deruleaza astfel [1] : situafia se inscrie in limitele valorii medii la momentul t cu probabilitatea p(Z) si poate pastra nealterate caracteristicile si la momentul t + d, daca nu pastreazd nealterate caracteristicile, atunci intervalul de timp dupa care este necesari o decizie este t+ d+s. in aceste circumstante intervalul real de timp dupa care situatia este pregititd pentru o noua iteratie devine (td) p(t) + (ttd+s\l-p()) = t+ d + s[l-p(t))] ~ t + sl -p(e))). intoata aceasta perioada, situatia si-a mentinut nivelul cererii in limite apropiate valorii medii pentru ISH, 0 duraté calculata ca sumd de valori de probabilitate, adica 5° p(x). Deci, proportia = de timp in care cererea se deruleaz’ de-a tungul a cit mai multe ISH conform parametrilor stabiliti este: a BO)= ¥ p(x(t+ sft pO) () a Pentru a determina maximul lui B(C)_ este necesara constituirea unui tabel de valori [1] (un studiu de caz se gaseste in tabelul 1) Tab. A(original) Intervalele semiorare incepind cu ISH nr. 1. 4,00 —4 30. ete, in continuarea zilei | pO|V ji [2 [3 4 ys te 17 [9 10 I 0178 0S | 5% | I 25 | % t as [0% ~ | BCX) 1 05 (1 | Xx wy [0 Vits [25 73 35 [35 [4 [4s] L1- py) os [os 105 [0 os [65 [1 05 105 [0 Ber 0,40 7 at T 1 LB 0 , 0,57 0,75 | 0,90 | 0,92 70.87 {9.82 | 0,84 | 0,90 |Conform datelor initiale (alese spre exemplificare) si prelucrate conform relatiilor de mai sus, 0 perioada egal cu 6 ISH ofer& cea mai mare proportie de timp in care cererea se deruleaza conform parametrilor stabiliti, adic& se prefigureaz o periodicitate in efectuarea sondarii de cca, 3 h. Pe cale de consecinta, pentru 20h activitate zilnicd, un numir N= 9 activititi de sondare poate fi creditat cu verosimilitatea maxima (7 reiegite din raportul valorilor si inc 2 pentru momentele de initiere gi respectiv incheiere a exploatarii zilnice), Modelul se bucurd de stabilitate intern, intrucdt rezultatele se dovedesc independente de modificarea valorii ISH (de exemplu, prin cresterea de la % hla 1h, B(t) maxim devine 0,51 in loc de 0,92 dar pentru aceeagi periodicitate de 3 h) 3.CONFIRMAREA SOLUTIEL Cea mai simpla dar gi cea mai interesanta constatare care se poate face vis-a-vis de curba din fig.1 este ca acopera 100% din cerere. De aici poate decurge o similitudine incitanta cu o functie de repartitie Astfel, daca x este variabila timp, se poate demonstra ca 0 relatie de tipul 1 f= @=0) © v2at? (a-m) (in care m,n sunt mediile de dimineata, respectiv de dupa-amiaza, op - deviafiile la varful unu, respectiv la varful doi), indeplineste toate conditiile pentru a deveni o functie de densitate de probabilitate ce aproximeaza suficient de exact curba cererii zilnice. Pana la determinarea relatiei care leaga cei 4 parametrii mentionati, se poate constitui un model inspirat din analiza numerica [4] : conform cuadraturii Cebisev [5], 0 procedura numeric& special (prin care valoarea unei integrale definite poate fi calculata folosind informatii despre integrant numai in anumite puncte), are nevoie de foarte putine valori rational alese de-a lungul domeniului de definitie pentru a clarifica situatia intregului domeniu de existenta b _ 9 frends =F=25 pura o unde: x, = 24, boa, (8) abscisele x, find date in tabelul 2 (a=4 si b=24 sunt limitele de integrare). Spre deosebire de cuadraturile Simpson sau Gauss care nu au nici un criteriu de oprire acalculelor, cuadratura Cebisev este inoperanta pentru mai mult de 9 puncte, cu toate acestea fiind consideraté una dintre cele mai precise metode [5] Procedura de calcul a acestor abscise, cuprinse dupa schimbari de variabila avantajos alese, numai intre —t si +1 , nu prezinta nici un interes practic in contextul de fata, importante fiind numai rezultatele (primul rand din tabelul 2), care extrapolate in intervalul 4.00 — 24.00 se dovedesc, pentru structura cererii, momentele cele mai reprezentative.Tab.2 (original) Abscise X, > 0911 f= 0,601 [= 0,528 = 0 | 0,167 | 0,528 | 0,601 | 0,911 0,167 “‘Valori punctuale | 4.53 8.00 8.42 12.19 | 14.00 | 15.51 | 19.18 | 20.00 | 23.07 de calcul Perioada de} 438 [745 | 827 | 12.04) 13.45 | 15.36 | 19.03 [19.45 22.52 sondare -508 | -8.15|- 857] - - - - [-20.15) - 12.34 | 14.15 | 15.56 | 19.33 23.22 Concluzia nu poate fi decit una : atat punctul de vedere probabilistic cat si punctul de vedere determinist converg citre aceesi constatare, gi anume N= 9 etalon a numérului de actiuni de sondare necesare si suficiente pentru o edificare deplina asupra structurii cererii in transport urban. BIBLIOGRAFIE [1] Ackoff, RL. [2] Ghionea,F. DB] Maynard,H..B [4] Postolache,M. b) reprezint& valoarea Bazele cercetirii operationale, Ed, Tehnicé, Buc.,1975 Tehnologia transporturilor publice, Ed. Matrix, Buc.,1996 Manual de inginerie industriali, Ed, Tehnica, Buc., 1975 Metode numerice, Ed. Sirius, Buc., 1994 indrumator matematic si tehnic Ed. Tehnica, Buc., 1964TAXAREA ACCESULUI PE INFRASTRUCTURA RUTIERA PENTRU REDUCEREA CONGESTIEI TRAFICULUI §.L.Dr, Ing, Mihaela Popa Universitatea Politehnica Bucuresti, Facultatea Transporturi REZUMAT: Lucrarea prezinta, pornind de la consideratiile teoretice fundamentale ale tarifarii serviciilor de transport, metodele de determinare a valorii taxei de utilizare a unui element de infrastructura, in conditii de congestie a traficului. Dezvoltarea capacitatii infrastructurii in concordanta cu dinamica cererii de transport, pe termen lung, antreneaza cresteri suplimentare ale traficului. Taxarea congestiei, de care se ocupa prezenta lucrare, se impune ca o masur eficace de reducere a mobilitatii individuale in acord cu exigentele unui transport durabil; se evit astfel nevoia de crestere continua a ofertei de transport. Sunt prezentate sistemele de referinta ale implementarii taxarii congestiei arterelor rutiere si cele mai importante rezultate obtinute. ABSTRACT: This paper shows the pricing methods of transport facility use, in traffic congestion conditions, starting from theoretical basic considerations of transport service pricing The transport infrastructure capacity development according to the transport demand dynamics leads to the traffic additional growths in the long term run. The congestion tool, which is the subjects of this paper, is an efficient instrument to individual mobility diminishing (according to sustainable transport exegeses). One presents the significant systems of the road congestion tools implementation and the most important results of them, Cuvinte cheie: tarifarea serviciilor de transport; costuri de utilizare; taxa de reducere a congestiei; dezvoltarea capacitatii infrastructurii de transport 1. INTRODUCERE Utilizatorii infrastructurilor de transport, fie ei utilizatori individuali, fie operatori de transport, gestionari ai unui parc de vehicule, constientizeazi de putine ori faptul c& ei nu doar suport congestia i si o genereaza, atunci cand se hot&rasc daca, unde, cum si cind s& se deplaseze, cei mai multi dintre utilizatori iau in considerare nivelul congestiei pe care, din experiente anterioare sau din informatii pe diferite cai, se asteapt si-l intilnescd, insi foarte putini realizeaza ca si participarea lor la trafic adauga un cost suplimentar suportat de ceifalti utilizatori, Congestia poate apare in multe activitati economice din domeniul productiei de servicii sau al productiei de bunuri materiale, Realizarea unei oferte este descrisi prin curbele costurilor totale medii pentru aambele tipuri de activitati dup& cum curbele costurilor marginale vor reflecta in aceeasi manier& evolutia costurilor totale pentru o unitate suplimentara de serviciu, respectiv produs in apropierea capacitatii instalate mentinute constanta, atat pentru infrastrucura cat si pentru o intreprindere de productie material, costurile marginale pe termen scurt cres¢ multmai repede decat costurile medii, Acest lucru este infeles gi aplicat foarte simplu intr-o activitate de productie materiala: nici o firma de succes nu isi foloseste capacitatile de productie la nivel apropiat de cel maxim. Utilizatorii infrastructurilor de transport, in general si in special cei ai infrastructurilor rutiere, participa cu totii la utilizarea ineficienta a acestei capacititi de productie a serviciilor de transport. 2. PRINCIPIH DE TARIFARE A SERVICULOR DE TRANSPORT Principiul fundamental al tarif’rii serviciilor de transport este acela al maximizarit beneficiilor totale sociale nete, definite ca diferenta dintre disponibilitatea utilizatorilor de a plati serviciile oferite (utilitatea totala oferita utilizatorilor, pe care acestia au posibilitatea sA 0 pliteasca) si costurile totale impuse de producerea acestora. Pentru folosirea acestui principiu in implementarea unui sistem de tarifare este necesara existenta unor ipoteze, dintre care cele mai importante: - justa distributie a veniturilor, - tofi utilizatorii rationeazi optim asupra bunastarii proprii; - mu se manifest efecte exteme nici din consumul (utilizarea) serviciilor si nici din productia lor, - toate bunurile gi iul de transport substituibile sau complementare au preturile si tarifele corect stabilite; Multe dintre aceste conditii, evident, nu sunt intotdeauna indeplinite. in situatiile cand aceste ipoteze pot fi luate in considerare, beneficiile totale sociale nete se expriméa prin relatia 9 B, = [plxddx- cy (Q) 0) unde s-a notat cu p(x) curba cererii directe, x- variabil& de integrare; Q— volumut traficului (productiei) serviciilor de transport: y,(Q) ~ functia costului total mediu (unitar) a productiei serviciilor de transport oferite Tariful optim al serviciului oferit trebuie s4 maximizeze beneficiul total social net Prin derivarea expresiei (1) si anularea derivatei se obtine (Q) = ey(Q)+ a. Sut @ Rezulta ca tariful optim al unui serviciu de transport trebuie sa “acopere” atat costul mediu al producerii serviciului cat si modificarea acestuia rezultata din servirea unui utilizator marginal Acesta este, de fapt, principiul de tarifare la nivelul costului marginal (tarifarea de rang 1), iar conditia pentru ca 0 companie s4 poata suporta o astfel de tarifare depinde de existenfa efectelor productiei pe scari largé (economii sau dizeconomii de scar) (Mobring, 1976). Existenta economiilor de scara face ca o crestere a productie sa se realizeze la costuri marginale de productie din ce in ce mai mici, gestionarea serviciului taregistrand deficite financiare prin aplicarea principiului de tarifare la nivelul costului marginal 3. TARTFAREA SERVICHLOR OFERITE DE INFRASTRUCTURA DE TRANSPORT __ Inca din timpul studiilor asupra taxdrii traversarii unui pod, realizate de celebrul inginer francez Dupuit, specialistii din transporturi au fost preocupati de modalitatea detarifare pentru situafia in care 0 companie gestioneaza infrastructura, iar alta — vehiculele care opereaza pe aceasta. . Pentru analiza tarifarii infrastructurii nu prezinta nici un fel de relevanta tipul de proprietate ~ publica sau privata - nici a infrastructurii §i nici a mijloacelor de transport Pentru a pune in evidentd costurile productiei oferite de infrastructura de transport, expresia beneficiului total social net poate fi scris& astfel B, = fo(x)ex -0:n(@K)-K «K) @) 3 unde apar in plus fat de notatiile anterioare h, care reprezinta functia de cost total mediu a utilizatorului pe infrastructura, fie ci acesta este un utilizator individual, fie cA este un gestionar (operator) al unui parc de vehicule; acest functie este dependent de nivelul traficului Q si de capacitatea infrastructurii,K; K - capacitatea instalata a infrastructurii, exprimata in aceeasi unitate de m&sura ca gi productia (traficul) Q. i(K)— investitia medie pentru a asigura o unitate de capacitate a infrastructurii de transport, dependenta de K. Costul mediu al utilizatorului infrastructu infrastructura considerat, este mai solicitat. Tariful optim pentru utilizarea infrastructurii, determinat in aceeagi manier cu tariful unui serviciu oarecare de transport, este atunci de forma: p=h+Q- (4) .h, creste pe masura ce elementul de Poate fie evidentiat aici acelasi cost mediu, similar relatiei (2), de data aceasta plitit de utilizatorul infrastructurii si acelasi cost marginal determinat de un utilizator suplimentar. in relatia (4) nu apare, paradoxal, nici o component legata de costurile cu oferta infrastructurii, ca si cand din tarifare nu s-ar obtine nici o surs& de venituri pentru finantarea investitiilor acesteia Nivelul optim de investitii in infrastractura de transport poate fi obfinut din anularea derivatei beneficiului social total net (rel. 3) in functie de capacitate i(K)+K-2--9-.2 (3) a Costul cresterii capacitatii infrastructurii cu o unitate (membrul stang al rel. 5) este egal cu valoarea cu care se reduc costurile operatorilor 0 dati cu addugarea unei unititi suplimentare de capacitate (membrul drept al rel. 5) Gestionarul infrastructurii de transport trebuie si cheltuiascd cu dezvoltarea capacitatit acesteia exact acea valoare de capital egal cu economiile totale pe care le realizeazd operatorii din adaugarea unei noi capacitati Relatia (5) mai poate fi numitd gi conditie de optim a nivelului investitiilor in infrastructurile de transport 4, CONGESTIA $I MODALITATILE DE TAXARE A ACESTEIA. Nofiunea teoretica de “congestie” a inceput si fie studiaté inca din anii 1920 (Pigou, 1920, Knight, 1924), cand specialisti in domeniul transporturilor au inceput sa fie ingrijorati de utilizarea crescanda a elementelor infrastructurii de transport rutiere, simultan, de mai multe categorii de utilizatori Congestia apre atunci cand costurile medii ale utilizatorilor pe o infrastructura incep s& creasca pe masura ce volumul de trafic creste.