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Metoda constă în înlocuirea valorilor observate yt cu valori calculate ca medie aritmetică a unui număr dat de
înregistrări situate înaintea valorii yt.
yn−2 + yn−1 + yn
yn =
3
y1 + y2 + y 3 + y 4
Media mobilă necentrată de ordinul 4, notată MMnc-a4: y4 =
4
y +y +y +y
y5 = 2 3 4 5
4
Cazul general
Media mobilă necentrată de ordinul k, notată MMnc-a(k):
y1 + y 2 + ... + yk
yk =
k
y + y + ... + yk +1
yk +1 = 2 3
k
2021:T3
1600
2020:T3
2019:T3 1550 2021:T4
1500 1450
2018:T3 2020:T4 2022:T4
1400 1350 2022:T2 1500
2019:T4 1450
1300 2021:T2
2018:T4 2020:T2
1200 1300 2022:T1
1200
2019:T2 1250
2018:T2
1150 2021:T1
1100
2020:T1 1150
1025
2019:T1
2018:T1 950 Datele Tendința
900 inițiale (y) MMnc-4a
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2021:T3
2020:T3 2022:T4
1600 2023:T4
2019:T3 1550 1500
2021:T4 1609,45
1500
1450 2022:T2
2018:T3 2020:T4 2023:T2
1400 1350 1450 1485,39
2019:T4
1300 2021:T2
2018:T4 2020:T2 2023:T1
1200 1300 1304,14
1200 2022:T1
2018:T2 2019:T2 1250
1150 2021:T1
1100 2020:T1 1150
2019:T1 1025
2018:T1 950 Datele Tendința Prognoza
900 inițiale (y) MMnc-4a MMnc-4a
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2021:T3
1600
2022:T4
2020:T3 1500
2019:T3 1550
1500 2021:T4
2018:T3 2020:T4 1450
1400 2022:T2
1350 1450
2019:T4
1300 2021:T2
2018:T4 2020:T2
1200 1300 2022:T1
1200
2019:T2 1250
2018:T2
1150 2021:T1
1100
1150
2019:T1 2020:T1
2018:T1 Datele Tendința
950 1025
900 inițiale (y) MMnc-4g
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2021:T3
1600
2020:T3 2022:T4
2019:T3 1550 2021:T4 1500 2023:T4
1500 1450 1638,7
2018:T3 2020:T4 2023:T2
1400 2022:T2
1350 1481,8
2019:T4 1450
1300 2021:T2
2018:T4 2020:T2
1200 1300 2022:T1 2023:T1
1200
2019:T2 1250 1269,6
2018:T2
1150 2021:T1
1100
1150
2019:T1 2020:T1
2018:T1 950 1025 Datele Tendința Prognoza
900 inițiale (y) MMnc-4g MMnc-4g
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2021:T3
1600
2020:T3 2022:T4
2021:T4 1500 2023:T4
2019:T3 1550
1450 1638,7
1500
2018:T3 2023:T2
2020:T4
1400 2022:T2 1481,8
1350
2019:T4 1450
1300 2021:T2
2018:T4 2020:T2
1200 1300 2022:T1 2023:T1
1200
2019:T2 1250 1269,6
2018:T2
1150 2021:T1
1100
2020:T1 1150
1025
2019:T1
Datele Tendința Prognoza Tendința Prognoza
2018:T1 950
inițiale (y) MMnc-4a MMnc-4a MMnc-4g MMnc-4g
900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Jula, Dorin; Jula, Nicolae-Marius, 2022. Prognoza economică, ediția a 9a, cap.1, Editura Mustang, București