Metoda P.E.R.T. (Program Evaluation and Review Technique).

Programul de Evaluare i Examinare Tehnic (PERT) este un model de tip reea care permite randomizarea n programarea timpului de ndeplinire a sarcinilor unui proiect. Prin PERT se poate reduce att timpul, ct i costurile unui proiect. Etape n procesul de planificare PERT: 1. Identificarea activitilor specifice i a obiectivelor intermediare: Este de ajutor sa se alcatuiasc o lista de activiti care, n etape ulterioare, s poata fi extins cu ajutorul informaiilor avute la dispoziie; 2. Determinarea etapizrii activitilor: Aceast etap presupune o analiz a fiecrei activiti n parte pentru a determina relaiile acestora una cu cealalta i ordinea n care trebuie finalizate; 3. Construirea diagramei de reea: Construirea diagramei se poate face cu ajutorul unui software specializat sau manual. n ambele cazuri, este bine s se foloseasc simboluri uzuale ca de exemplu: activitile vor fi reprezentate de sgei, n timp ce obiectivele intermediare sunt simbolizate prin cercuri. 4. Estimarea timpului necesar pentru realizarea fiecrei activiti: Pentru a determina timpul de realizare a unei activiti, n mod normal se determina trei timpi:timpul optimistic, "timpul cel mai probabil, "timpul pesimistic.Timpul de realizare a unei activiti se calculeaz apoi astfel: Tra=(Topt+4*Tprob+Tpes)/6 5. Determinarea cii critice: Calea critic se determin prin adugarea timpilor activitilor pentru fiecare secven i determinnd cea mai lung cale a proiectului. 6. Updatarea PERT pe msura ce proiectul progreseaz: Pe masura ce proiectul progreseaz, se pot face modificri. Timpii programai pot fi modificai cu cei realizai. Daca apar ntarzieri, se vor aloca resurse adiionale pentru recuperarea acestuia i diagrama PERT va fi modificat pentru a reflecta acest lucru.

Model PERT - etapizare simpla Avantaje ale metodei PERT: Diagrama PERT este mai folositoare dect alte metode utilizate n prezent deoarece ne pune la dispoziie unele informaii precum: Timpul prognozat de realizare a proiectului; Probabilitatea de realizare naintea datei specificate; Activitaile ci critice care au impact direct asupra datei de finalizare a proiectului; Activitaile care au timp suplimentar la dispoziie care poate fi pus la dispozitia activitatilor ci critice; Data de ncepere i ncheiere a proiectului. Dezavantaje ale PERT: Printre limitarile PERT, se pot aminti urmatoarele: Estimrile timpilor activitilor sunt oarecum subiective i depind de judecata uneia sau mai multor persoane pe baza unor informaii (complete sau incomplete) avute la dispoziie n momentul realizrii estimrilor; Chiar dac timpii activitilor sunt bine estimai, PERT accept o beta distribuie a acestor estimri n cadrul ntregului proiect, n timp ce distribuia real poate fi real. Chiar daca PERT realizeaz o beta-distribuie similar cu cea real, exist posibilitatea apariiei unor ntrzieri deoarece timpul asociat de catre PERT cii critice va fi ntotdeauna mai mare dect n mod real.

Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)

PERT Activity Times o Three time estimates are required Optimistic time (a) if everything goes according to plan Mostlikely time (m) most realistic estimate Pessimistic time (b) assuming very unfavorable conditions

o o Expected time: o Variance of times:

Follow beta distribution t = (a + 4m + b)/6 v = [(b a)/6]2

Project Times o Conduct CPM method using expected activity times o Expected project time (T) Sum of critical path activity times (t) o Project Variance

Sum of critical path activity variances (v) Probability of Project Completion o Project variance is computed by summing the variances of critical activities o 2 = Project variance = (variances of activities on critical path) o PERT makes two more assumptions: Total project completion times follow a normal probability distribution Activity times are statistically independent o What is the probability this project can be completed on or before the 16 week deadline? Z =(due date expected date of completion)/p

 Where Z is the number of standard deviations the due date lies from the mean Variability of Completion Time for Noncritical Paths o Variability of times for activities on noncritical paths must be considered when finding the probability of finishing in a specified time o Variation in noncritical activity may cause change in critical path

Critical Path Method (CPM)

Critical Path Method (CPM) Analysis

A single time estimate for each activity o Provides activity information Earliest Start (ES) & Earliest Finish (EF)

 Latest Start (LS) & Latest Finish (LF) Slack

(S): Allowable Delay o Identifies Critical Path Longest path through the network Shortest time in which the project can be completed Any delay in critical path activities delays the project Critical path activities have 0 slack time Forward Pass o Begin at starting event and work forward o Earliest Start Time Rule: If an activity has only one immediate predecessor, its ES equals the EF of the predecessor If an activity has multiple immediate predecessors, its ES is the maximum of all the EF values of its predecessors ES = Max (EF of all immediate predecessors) o Earliest Finish Time Rule: The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity is the sum of its earliest start time (ES) and its activity time EF = ES + Activity time

 Backward Pass o Begin with the last event and work backwards o Latest Finish Time Rule: If an activity is an immediate predecessor for just a single activity, its LF equals the LS of the activity that immediately follows it If an activity is an immediate predecessor to more than one activity, its LF is the minimum of all LS values of all activities that immediately follow it LF = Min (LS of all immediate following activities) o Latest Start Time Rule:

The latest start time (LS) of an activity is the difference of its latest finish time (LF) and its activity time LS = LF Activity time

 The CPM Method o Create a network diagram o Indentify all possible paths from start to finish through the network o Determine length (or duration) of each path by adding task times for all tasks on path o Longest path is critical path Critical path corresponds to longest path in the network for a project completion All activities (or tasks) on critical path are called critical activities

Advantages & Limitations of PERT/CPM

Advantages of PERT/CPM 1. Especially useful when scheduling and controlling large projects 2. Straightforward concept and not mathematically complex

3. Graphical networks help to perceive relationships among project activities 4. Critical path and slack time analyses help pinpoint activities that need to be closely watched 5. Project documentation and graphics point out who is responsible for various activities 6. Applicable to a wide variety of projects 7. Useful in monitoring not only schedules but costs as well Limitations of PERT/CPM 1. Project activities have to be clearly defined, independent, and stable in their relationships 2. Precedence relationships must be specified and networked together 3. Time estimates tend to be subjective and are subject to fudging by managers 4. There is an inherent danger of too much emphasis being placed on the longest or critical path

Phase 2: Scheduling - relates people, money, & supplies to specific activities & activities to each other

Project activities Start & end times Network Phase 2: Project Scheduling

o o o o o

Identifying precedence relationships Sequencing activities Determining activity times & costs Estimating material and worker requirements Determining critical activities