Alizeele vs.

nclzire global
Ce mai putem spune n plus despre nclzirea global? Este un subiect actual sau
perimat? Mai putem vorbi de nclzire global n prezent dup toate fenomenele
de iarn ce s-au succedat n ultimele luni n emisfera nordic?
Studiile recente demonstreaz ns o legtur strns ntre vnturile periodice de
tipul alizeelor i ncetinirea nclzirii globale n ultimul deceniu, de unde i toate
aceste schimbri brute de temperatur, fenomene meteorologice din ce n ce
mai periculoase n sezonul rece i hazarde meteorologice.
Dintr-un motiv mai puin evideniat de ultimele descoperiri climatice, se pare c
alizeele din vestul Oceanului Pacific exercit o influen major asupra micrii
apelor de suprafa i de adncime de-a lungul Ecuatorului ntre coastele Americii
de Sud i Centrale i cele ale Australiei i Asiei de Sud-Est. Atunci cnd vnturile
sufl cu deosebit vigoare, apa cald care se acumuleaz n straturile de la
suprafaa oceanului i ncep drumul descendent spre adncime i converg pn
spre un nivel unde diferenele de temperatur ntre acestea i stratul de ap
omogen strbtut se omogenizeaz. Acest tip de circulaie este cunoscut, n
mare, sub numele de Circulaie termohalin, diferenele de salinitate avnd i
ele un cuvnt greu de spus.
De la aceast baz pornete investigaia
hidrometeorologic a cercettorilor care au dedus c modificrile n regimul
termic anual al ultimilor 12 ani se datoreaz acestui ciclu suprafa adncime
care a antrenat cu el i ali termeni, ntre care cu cele mai importante efecte este
energia generat de emisiile de gaze cu efect de ser captate la interfaa ocean
troposfera inferioar, ce este captat n stratul de ap de adncime mare i
medie, n timp ce apele reci urc spre suprafa i rcesc uscatul. Studiul realizat
de cercettorii americani a utilizat metoda comparativ ntre temperaturile din
Oceanul Pacific din anul 2001 i cele anterioare, dintre anii 1940 1975,
identificnd o fluctuaie pe o perioad de 20-30 de ani a temperaturii la suprafaa
oceanului. Aceast legtur explic de ce nclzirea global nu este un fenomen
regulat i continuu - un argument invocat de sceptici - ci un fenomen n etape,
ntre dou perioade de temperatur diferit, mai mult sau mai puin constante,
de aceea efectele de nsprire a iernii sunt totui temporare i se preconizeaz
creterea temperaturii lor n urmtorii ani.
Acest hiatus n nclzirea temperaturilor de la suprafaa mrilor i oceanelor,
resimite n special n zonele aflate sub influena alizeelor, nu nseamn c
nclzirea global s-a oprit. Asistm n Oceanul Arctic la topirea gheii pn la un
nivel record, spre exemplu.
Aa cum se tie, alizeele au un efect de aridizare asupra zonelor de uscat spre
care bat i aproape ntotdeauna impun valori meteorologice extreme ale
parametrilor msurai la staiile aflate n calea lor. Premisa asocierii alizeelor cu
schimbrile globale ale climei a constat n insuficienta cldur care poate fi
prins n apele oceanelor ca urmare a unor sezoane calde mult prelungite la
latitudinile tropicale. Fora alizeelor a crescut destul de mult n ultimii ani, poate
i din cauza unor perturbaii ale circulaiei la limita superioar a troposferei, sau
poate chiar din cauze strict climatice, dar cert este c diminuarea activitii lor

i-a pus pecetea asupra adunrii acestei clduri suplimentare n vastul rezervor al
Oceanului Pacific. Cele mai multe studii indic o accelerare dramatic a alizeelor,
fenomen asociat cu o faz negativ a ciclului numit Oscilaia Interdecadal
Pacific (Interdecada Pacific Oscillation), care se manifest printr-o imobilizare a
apelor Oceanului Pacific la latitudinile la care acestea i-au dobndit starea fizica
(temperatura, n cazul de fa), circulaia fcndu-se mai lent de la o latitudine la
alta i mai intens n sens vertical, dinspre suprafa spre adncime. Nu numai c
accelerarea vitezei cu care circul alizeele este fr precedent, dar modul lor
actual de manifestare excede ceea ce s-a putut calcula teoretic n modelele
climatice de pn acum. Dificultatea reproducerii acestui fenomen de ncetinire a
nclzirii globale provine de la faptul c oscilaiile n propagarea vnturilor alizee
au efecte asupra fazelor de nclzire sau rcire a climei, acestea conducnd n
definitiv la o acumulare temporar a cldurii din atmosfer n interiorul apelor
oceanice.
Putem concluziona c ncetinirea nclzirii globale prefigurate la sfritul secolului
trecut se datoreaz nu att unei activiti externe planetei, cum ar fi scderea
activitii solare, forcing radiativ la limita cu spaiul cosmic sau mai multor
poluani n atmosfer care pot bloca lumina soarelui, ci mai mult unei mprejurri
mai rare, mai neobinuite, de schimbare a strii termice a oceanelor, n special a
ratei cu care n oceane se propag cldura spre adncime, mai mult cldur
fiind transferat spre straturile profunde. Nu n ultimul rnd, cercetrile asupra
efectelor circulaiei atmosferice i a curenilor marini din corespunztori
Oceanului Pacific tind din ce n ce mai mult s asambleze piesele de puzzle ale
misterului nclzirii globale, explicnd cum poate un transfer mai eficient al
cldurii spre adncurile oceanului s induc n eroare o ntreag lume tiinific
care se va mai ntreba nc mult timp de acum ncolo: De ce la suprafa
nclzirea global se produce extrem de ncet i totui nu exist evidene c
apele Oceanului Pacific, principalul pionier al schimbrilor, i-ar fi redus
temperatura medie anual?

The new study published by Matthew England's team helps explain how and why
more heat is being funneled into the deeper ocean layers. The study indicates
that a dramatic acceleration in equatorial trade winds, associated with a negative
phase of a cycle called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has invigorated
the circulation of the Pacific Ocean. This has caused more heat from the surface
to be mixed down into deeper ocean layers, while bringing cooler waters to the
surface. The combination of these two processes cools global surface
temperatures. Like the rate at which heat is accumulating in the deep oceans,
the recent strengthening of the trade winds is unprecedented, as the bottom
frame in the figure below shows.
Top frame: Global surface temperature anomalies. Bottom frame: Pacific wind
stress anomalies. From England et al. (2014). Top frame: Global surface
temperature anomalies. Bottom frame: Pacific wind stress anomalies. From
England et al. (2014).

Studiul, publicat n tot ceea ce este revista Nature schimbrile climatice , efectul
de rcire net calculat n medie 0.1C zona temperaturii globale i 0.2C ca perioada
, reprezentnd mai mult dehiatus n zona de nclzire . Autorii studiului a declarat
c a fost - un decalaj ntre modele 0.2C folosite pentru a prezice nclzire i de
nclzire reale observate din 2001 .

De constatri shoulds Furnizarea de proaspete certitudine cu privire la motivele

din spatele pauza de nclzire , tot ce -a - fost susinut de ctre criticii de mas
tiinei climatice, ca dovad c modelele sunt eronate i predicii de creterea
temperaturii - au - fost exagerate .

Interguvernamental al ONU privind schimbrile climatice ( IPCC ) a abordat

problema butonul de nclzire n TIC 2013 raport climatice , subliniind c
Pmntul trece printr -un solar minim i c mai mult de 90 % din cldur
suplimentar din lume este absorbit de oceane , Mai degrab dect persistent la
suprafa .

Matthew Anglia , un om de stiinta climatice de la Universitatea din New South

Wales din Sydney , i liderul de cercetare , a declarat c n timp ce minimul solar
i aerosoli de particule , au contribuit la ncetinirea ritmului de cretere , vnturi
puternice comerciale sunt semnificativ factor .

" Temperatura modele au un plic de scop incertitudine , este clar c ultimul

deceniu a vzut mult mai plat a schimba temperatura Comparativ cu anii 1980
i 1990 , cnda fost creterea rapid ", a spus el .

" Am gasit accelerarea vnt Acesta a fost , suficient de puternic n ultimii 20 de

ani pentru a pompa o mulime de cldur n Vanturilor oceanului accelerate n
aceast perioad mai mult dect oricnd n secolul trecut ; . Fr precedent ntradevr este i paradisul modele 't totul capturat . "

Accelerarea de vanturi comerciale din Pacific a fost de dou ori , la fel de puternic
n ultimii 20 de ani, comparativ cu 80 ani nainte , rcirea East Pacific i de
rsaduri de tendina de a altor pri ale lumii .

Studiul sugereaz putea pauza de nclzire continu pentru o mare parte a

deceniului prezent n cazul n care vnturile comerciale continua , cu toate
acestea , shoulds vnturile reveni la vitezele lor pe termen lung, mediu ,
nclzirea rapid rezumat Will .

" Chiar dac vnturile accelera n continuare ciudat , mai devreme sau mai trziu,
impactul de gaze cu efect de ser va coplei efect ", a declarat Anglia . " i dac
vnturile relaxa , de cldur va iei repede . Aa cum am trece prin secolul 21 ,
suntem mai puin i mai puin probabil s aib un deceniu mai rece gaze . Cu
efect de ser va ctiga Desigur, n cele din urm . "

A fost clar Anglia a spus ceea ce a provocat creterea comerului vnt din Pacific ,
altho nclzirea n Oceanul Indian are - fasole boabe citat ca un potenial
declanator .

Dr Steve Rintoul , liderul echipei de cercetare de la CSIRO marin i Cercetare

Atmosferica , spectacole de cercetare a declarat c ntreruperile n nclzirea
global rata sunt de ateptat s fie de .

" Oceanele - au s se nclzeasc continuat neabtut, ciudat care se ncadreaz

la recenta hiatus n nclzire de zona de temperatur ", a spus el .

" Variaii naturale ale sistemului climatic aussi Asta nseamn tendinele climatice
ntr-o perioad scurt de timp estimat nu poate reflecta sunt schimb pe termen
lung . Un deceniu sau dou de nclzire mai lent sau mai rapid nu ne spune nimic
despre schimbrile climatice pe termen lung . "

Richard Allan , profesor de stiinte climatice de la Universitatea din Reading , a

declarat ca probabil acesta este ncetinirea nclzirii curent este doar o amnare
temporar de la Creterea intens, n temperaturile globale .

" Aceast nou cercetare sugereaz c atunci cnd vnturile comerciale slbi din
nou , planeta poate atepta nclzirea rapid a zonei pentru a relua , deoarece
concentraiile de gaze cu efect de ser continu s creasc ", a spus el .

" Noi nu tim ce este cauza teza schimb fr precedent , implicaiile Scopul ar
putea fi ntreprinderi substaniale . "

" Consumul de cldur este n nici un caz gruparea permanent : atunci cnd
puterea de vnt comercial revine la normal - aa cum inevitabil se va - cercetarile
noastre sugereaza cldur Will rapid se acumuleaz n atmosfer temperaturi
Deci, la nivel global par a crete rapid din hiatus , revenind la . n cadrul nivelurile
proiectate ct mai puin de un deceniu . "

Studiul estimeaz c prin trecerea mai mult cldur n oceane , vnturile

comerciale Consolidarea poate explica de 0,1-0,2 C rcire de temperaturile de
la suprafa n ultimii 10 pn la 15 de ani. Ar fi acest cont pentru cea mai mare a
ratei ncetinit de nclzire , mai ales cnd sunt combinate cu un studiu recent
care arat suprafaa total de nclzire care ncetinire nu este la fel de mare ca i
calculat se credea anterior . Principalul autor al acestui hrtie , Kevin Cowtan Said
al acestui studiu ,

" Cred c profesorul Anglia a descoperit cea mai mare piesa gratuit n puzzle
de tendinele recente de temperatur "

n figura de mai jos , studiul compar Anglia Observat schimb de temperatur de

suprafa ( negru i gri ), cu proiecii de model IPCC ( rou ) , i previziunile facute
de modele care ncorporeaz tez n vnt comerciale schimb ( verde i
albastru ) . Modelele Inclusiv vanturi comerciale pot reproduce ncetinirea zona
de nclzire . Totui, odat ce schimbrile ciclului de IPO i vnturile reveni la
nivelurile anterioare , modelele vedea o nclzire accelerat la suprafa i
temperaturile ncep s prind din nou pn la proieciile modelului IPCC .
Anuale ( bare gri ) i o medie de funcionare de cinci ani (linia solid negru )
masuratori de temperatura de suprafa la nivel mondial. Proiecii modele
climatice sunt afiate n rou . Albastru i verde arat rezultatele de la un ocean
i un model de climat cuplat ajustat n funcie de zona de rcire comerului vnt
- induse . Din Anglia i colab . ( 2014) . Anuale ( bare gri ) i o medie de
funcionare de cinci ani (linia solid negru ) masuratori de temperatura de
suprafa la nivel mondial. Proiecii modele climatice sunt afiate n rou .
Albastru i verde arat rezultatele de la un ocean i un model de climat cuplat
ajustat n funcie de zona de rcire comerului vnt - induse . Din Anglia i
colab . ( 2014) .

O imagine coerent este mirghel n cercetarea climatice; Creteri puterea de

Trade Winds fore mai mult cldur pentru a fi amestecat n jos n ocean , ceea

ce duce la o zon temporar ncetinirea a temperaturilor n cretere . Urmtoarea

pies a puzzle-ului va implica explica cauzele acceleraiei vnt comer dramatic ,
fr precedent . Ciclul de IPO poate explica aproximativ jumtate din piaa
valutar vnt vizeaz oameni de stiinta climatice sunt nc investigheaz ali
factori pot Contribuind .

n orice caz , Anglia ajunge la concluzia ca pot iesi la suprafata rapid temperaturi
cald Cnd stadiul de IPO mut din nou n urmtorii zece ani sau aa , i n final va
fi ca i cum n- au avut loc ncetinirea nclzirii zona .

" Am shoulds fi foarte clar : hiatusul actual nu ofer confort - suntem doar
vedem Opinii un alt pauz n [ zona ] nclzirea nainte de urmtoarea creterea
inevitabil a temperaturii la nivel global . "
Global warming pause due to unusual trade winds in Pacific ocean, study finds
The IPCC in 2013 pointed out that more than 90% of the worlds extra heat is
being soaked up by the oceans, rather than lingering on the surface. Photograph:
Universal History Archive/Getty Images

The contentious "pause" in global warming over the past decade is largely due to
unusually strong trade winds in the Pacific ocean that have buried surface heat
deep underwater, new research has found.

A joint Australian and US study analysed why the rise in the Earth's global
average surface temperature has slowed since 2001, after rapidly increasing
from the 1970s.

The research shows that sharply accelerating trade winds in central and eastern
areas of the Pacific have driven warm surface water to the ocean's depths,
reducing the amount of heat that flows into the atmosphere.

In turn, the lowering of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific triggers further
cooling in other regions.

The study, which is published in the journal Nature Climate Change, calculated
the net cooling effect on global average surface temperatures as between 0.1C
and 0.2C, accounting for much of the hiatus in surface warming. The study's

authors said there has been a 0.2C gap between models used to predict warming
and actual observed warming since 2001.

The findings should provide fresh certainty about the reasons behind the
warming hiatus, which has been claimed by critics of mainstream climate science
as evidence that the models are flawed and predictions of rising temperatures
have been exaggerated.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addressed the

warming pause issue in its 2013 climate report, pointing out that the Earth is
going through a solar minimum and that more than 90% of the world's extra heat
is being soaked up by the oceans, rather than lingering on the surface.

Matthew England, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales in

Sydney, and leader of the research, said that while the solar minimum and
aerosol particles have contributed to the slowdown, strong trade winds are the
significant factor.

"Temperature models have an envelope of uncertainty but it is clear that the last
decade has seen a much flatter temperature change compared to the 1980s and
1990s, when the increase was rapid," he said.

"We found that the wind acceleration has been strong enough in the past 20
years to pump a lot of the heat into the ocean. Winds accelerated in this period
more than at any time in the past century; it really is unprecedented and the
models haven't captured it all."

The acceleration of Pacific trade winds has been twice as strong in the past 20
years compared with the prior 80 years, cooling the east Pacific and propagating
the trend to other parts of the world.

The study suggests the warming hiatus could continue for much of the present
decade if the trade winds continue; however, should the winds return to their
long-term average speeds, rapid warming will resume.

"Even if the winds accelerate even further, sooner or later the impact of
greenhouse gases will overwhelm the effect," England said. "And if the winds
relax, the heat will come out quickly. As we go through the 21st century, we are
less and less likely to have a cooler decade. Greenhouse gases will certainly win
out in the end."

England said it was unclear what has caused the increase in Pacific trade winds,
although warming in the Indian Ocean has been cited as a potential trigger.

Dr Steve Rintoul, research team leader at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric

Research, said the research shows that pauses in the rate of global warming are
to be expected.

"The oceans have continued to warm unabated, even during the recent hiatus in
warming of surface temperature," he said.

"Natural variations of the climate system also mean that climate trends
estimated over a short period are unlikely to reflect long-term changes. A decade
or two of slower or faster warming does not tell us anything about long-term
climate change."

Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said it is

likely the current warming slowdown is only a temporary reprieve from brisk
increases in global temperatures.

"This new research suggests that when the trade winds weaken again, the planet
can expect rapid warming of the surface to resume, as greenhouse gas
concentrations continue to rise," he said.

"We don't know what is causing these unprecedented changes, but the
implications could be substantial."

"the heat uptake is by no means permanent: when the trade wind strength
returns to normal - as it inevitably will - our research suggests heat will quickly
accumulate in the atmosphere. So global temperatures look set to rise rapidly out
of the hiatus, returning to the levels projected within as little as a decade."

The study estimates that by shifting more heat into the oceans, the
strengthening trade winds can account for 0.10.2C cooling of surface
temperatures over the past 10 to 15 years. This would account for most of the
slowed rate of warming, especially when combined with a recent study showing
that the global surface warming slowdown is not as large as previously thought.
The lead author of that paper, Kevin Cowtan said of this study,

"I think Professor England has uncovered the biggest piece in the puzzle of
recent temperature trends"

In the figure below, the England study compares observed surface temperature
changes (black and grey) with IPCC model projections (red), and projections
made by models that incorporate these changes in trade winds (green and blue).
The models including trade winds can reproduce the surface warming slowdown.
However, once the IPO cycle shifts and winds return to previous levels, the
models see an accelerated warming at the surface, and temperatures start to
catch back up to the IPCC model projections.
Annual (grey bars) and a five-year running mean (black solid line) global surface
temperature measurements. Climate model projections are shown in red. The
blue and green show results from an ocean and a coupled climate model adjusted
by the trade-wind-induced surface cooling. From England et al. (2014). Annual
(grey bars) and a five-year running mean (black solid line) global surface
temperature measurements. Climate model projections are shown in red. The
blue and green show results from an ocean and a coupled climate model adjusted
by the trade-wind-induced surface cooling. From England et al. (2014).

A consistent picture is emerging in the climate research; increases in the strength

of trade winds force more heat to be mixed down into the ocean, leading to a
temporary slowing of rising surface temperatures. The next piece of the puzzle
will involve explaining the cause of the dramatic, unprecedented trade wind
acceleration. The IPO cycle can explain about half of the wind changes, but
climate scientists are still investigating other possible contributing factors.

In any case, England concludes that surface temperatures may rapidly warm
when the IPO phase shifts again in the next decade or so, and it will eventually be
as though the surface warming slowdown never occurred.

"We should be very clear: the current hiatus offers no comfort - we are just
seeing another pause in [surface] warming before the next inevitable rise in
global temperatures."
Vnturile comerciale din Oceanul Pacific sunt Slbirea ca urmare a nclzirii
globale , un nou studiu potrivit acestei indic la biologie zona monetar sunt
posibile .

Folosind o combinaie de observaii din lumea real i modelarea pe calculator ,

Cercetatori la concluzia ca o bucl mare de circula vnt deasupra Oceanului
Pacific , cunoscut sub numele de circulaia Walker , a slbit cu circa 3,5 la sut de
la mijlocul anilor 1800 . Vnturile comerciale sunt partea de circulaie Walker care
sufla pe suprafata oceanului .

Cercetatorii prezic Opinii un alt 10 la sut pn la sfritul scdere a secolului

21 .
Efectul , cel puin n parte atribuit la schimbrile climatice induse de om ,
perturba lanurile de produse alimentare i ar putea reduce productivitatea
biologic a Oceanului Pacific , a spus oamenii de stiinta .
Subiect fierbinte

Controversa

Diferenele nclzirea global rezolvate

Creane contradictorii cu privire la nclzirea global i de ce este totul Moot
Oamenii de stiinta au derutat Spune mai puin Sunlight Atingerea Pmnt
Oamenii de stiinta Clueless peste Efectul Soare pe Pmnt
De gaze cu efect de ser Afisari record
Argument cheie pentru Critics nclzirea global se evapor

Efecte

Seas s creasc
Groenlanda se topeste

sol Restrngerea
Ghearii dispar
Alergiile nruti
Rivers topete n primvara devreme
A crescut Producia vegetal
Animale Comportamentul Schimbarea
Ia Hurricanes puternice
lacuri dispar

posibilitile

Mai mult scop de ploaie mai puin ap

- Ghea gratuit Arctic Summers
Copleit Storm Jgheaburi
Cel mai prost Mass Extinction Ever
O Planet rcit

Soluii ciudate

Space inel de umbra Pmntului

Mai lungi de avion Bilete de avion

Studiul condus de Gabriel Vecchi a fost de Corporation Universitatea de Cercetare

Atmosferica si este detaliat in numarul din 04 mai al revistei Nature .

Oamenii de vina

Cercetatorii au folosit inregistrari de nivel mare citirile de presiune atmosferic de

la , n msura napoi ca la mijlocul anilor 1800 pentru a reconstrui intensitatea

vntului circulaiei Walker n ultimii 150 de ani. Un model de climat de calculator

replicat efectul vzut n documentele istorice .

Unele dintre simulari pe computer, au inclus efectele emisiilor de gaze cu efect

de ser umane , altele incluse doar factori naturale cunoscute pentru a afecta
climatice : cum ar fi erupiile vulcanice i variaii solare .

" Am fost BLE pentru a ntreba " Ce se ntmpl dac oamenii nu ar fi fcut
nimic ? Sau ce dac vulcani au erupt ? Sau, n cazul n care soarele nu Dac
variat ? ", A spus Vecchi . " Singura noastr cale de a ine cont de Exchange
Observat este prin impactul activitii umane , i principal din gazele cu efect de
ser din arderea combustibililor fosili . "

Temperatura medie de aproximativ Pamantului a crescut cu 1 grad Fahrenheit n

secolul trecut i Multi oameni de stiinta cred gaze cu efect de ser i a emisiilor
de dioxid de carbon din activitile umane sunt de vina .

" Aceasta este o dovad de sprijin nclzirea global i dovezi aussi de

capacitatea noastr de a face predicii rezonabile de cel puin schimbul scar
larg shoulds web AbeBooks atepta de la nclzirea global , " Vecchi spus
LiveScience .

Prin extrapolarea i lor de date combina - l cu rezultate de la alte modele ,

cercetatorii prezice circulaia Walker ar putea incetini anul cu nc 10 la sut pn
n 2100 .

Fora de conducere

Vnturile comerciale sufla de la est la un unghi spre ecuator i - au - fost folosite

de ctre marinarii de secole care doresc s navigheze spre vest . Cristofor
Columb s-au bazat pe vnturile comerciale ale Atlanticului s-l duc n America
de Nord . Vnturile obine de la numele lor fiabilitatea lor : s spun c un " comer
vntul ", este de a spune c lovituri pe drumul cel bun .

General circulaia Walker este alimentat de la , n cretere cu aer cald n Oceanul

Pacific de vest i scufundarea aer rece n estul Pacificului .

Aceast band transportoare looping de vnturi de anvergur are efecte asupra

climei de pe glob . Acesta dirijeaz curenii oceanici i hrnete viaa marin pe
Pacificul ecuatorial i n largul coastei Americii de Sud de ctre conducere
upwelling de ap rece bogate in nutrienti de la adncimi de ocean la suprafa .

Aussi circulaie Walker Responsabil primar pentru transportul de vapori de apa se

evapora din ocean care zona de vest , Spre Indonezia , acolo , umezeala se ridic
n atmosfer , condensat , i cade napoi pe Pmnt sub form de ploaie .

Efectele nclzirii globale

Mai multe teorii cu privire la efectele nclzirii globale prezice o slbire a

circulaiei Walker . Oamenii de tiin cred c funcioneaz ca aceasta :

Pentru a Rmnei energetic echilibrat , rata la care atmosfera absoarbe vaporii

de ap trebuie s fie echilibrat de rata de precipitaii . Scop msur ce
temperaturile cresc i mai mult apa se evapora de la ocean , vaporii de ap n
partea inferioar atmosfer crete rapid . Din cauza diferitelor procese fizice , cu
toate acestea, rata de precipitaii nu creste la fel de repede .

Deoarece atmosfera absoarbe umezeala mai repede dect se poate arunca , i c

vnt este transportul major de umiditate n atmosfer , de circulaie a aerului
trebuie s ncetineasc n cazul n care bilanul energetic este s fie meninute .

O pictur n condiii de vnt ar putea reduce puterea curenilor att de suprafa

i subterane ocean i umezi creterea apelor de adncime de ap rece la
ecuator .

" Acest lucru ar putea avea efecte semnificative asupra ecosistemelor oceanice ",
a spus Vecchi . " Curenii oceanici condus de vnturile comerciale furniza
substante nutritive vitale pentru a - aproape de suprafa ecosistemelor oceanice
dinPacificul ecuatorial , tot ceea ce este un domeniu major de pescuit . "
The trade winds in the Pacific Ocean are weakening as a result of global warming,
according to a new study that indicates changes to the region's biology are
possible.

Using a combination of real-world observations and computer modeling,

researchers conclude that a vast loop of circulating wind over the Pacific Ocean,
known as the Walker circulation, has weakened by about 3.5 percent since the
mid-1800s. The trade winds are the portion of the Walker circulation that blow
across the ocean surface.

The researchers predict another 10 percent decrease by the end of the 21st
century.
The effect, attributed at least in part to human-induced climate change, could
disrupt food chains and reduce the biological productivity of the Pacific Ocean,
scientists said.
Hot Topic

The Controversy

Global Warming Differences Resolved

Conflicting Claims on Global Warming and Why It's All Moot
Baffled Scientists Say Less Sunlight Reaching Earth
Scientists Clueless over Sun's Effect on Earth
Greenhouse Gas Hits Record High
Key Argument for Global Warming Critics Evaporates

The Effects

Seas to Rise
Greenland Melts
Ground Collapses
Glaciers Disappear
Allergies Get Worse
Rivers Melt Sooner in Spring

Increased Plant Production

Animals Change Behavior
Hurricanes Get Stronger
Lakes Disappear

The Possibilities

More Rain but Less Water

Ice-Free Arctic Summers
Overwhelmed Storm Drains
Worst Mass Extinction Ever
A Chilled Planet

Strange Solutions

Space Ring to Shade Earth

Longer Airline Flights

The study was led by Gabriel Vecchi of the University Corporation for Atmospheric
Research and is detailed in the May 4 issue of the journal Nature.

Humans to blame

The researchers used records of sea-level atmospheric pressure readings from as

far back as the mid-1800s to reconstruct the wind intensity of the Walker
circulation over the past 150 years. A computer climate model replicated the
effect seen in the historical record.

Some of the computer simulations included the effects of human greenhouse gas
emissions; others included only natural factors known to affect climate such as
volcanic eruptions and solar variations.

"We were able to ask 'What if humans hadn't done anything? Or what if volcanoes
erupted? Or if the sun hadn't varied?'" Vecchi said. "Our only way to account for
the observed changes is through the impact of human activity, and principally
from greenhouse gases from fossil fuel burning."

Earth's average temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit over the
past century and many scientists believe greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide
emissions from human activities are to blame.

"This is evidence supporting global warming and also evidence of our ability to
make reasonable predictions of at least the large scale changes that we should
expect from global warming," Vecchi told LiveScience.

By extrapolating their data and combining it with results from other models, the
researchers predict the Walker circulation could slow by an additional 10 percent
by 2100.

Driving force

The trade winds blow from the east at an angle towards the equator and have
been used by sailors for centuries seeking to sail west. Christopher Columbus
relied on the Atlantic's trade winds to carry him to North America. The winds get
their name from their reliability: To say that a "wind blows trade" is to say that it
blows on track.

The overall Walker circulation is powered by warm, rising air in the west Pacific
Ocean and sinking cool air in the eastern Pacific.

This looping conveyer belt of winds has far-reaching effects on climate around the
globe. It steers ocean currents and nourishes marine life across the equatorial
Pacific and off the coast of South America by driving the upwelling of nutrient-rich
cold water from ocean depths to the surface.

The Walker circulation is also primarily responsible for transporting water vapor
that evaporates from the ocean surface west, towards Indonesia; there, the
moisture rises up into the atmosphere, condenses, and falls back to Earth as rain.

The effects of global warming

Several theories on the effects of global warming predict a weakening of the

Walker circulation. Scientists think it works like this:

To remain energetically balanced, the rate at which the atmosphere absorbs

water vapor must be balanced by the rate of rainfall. But as temperatures rise
and more water evaporates from the ocean, water vapor in the lower atmosphere
increases rapidly. Because of various physical processes, however, the rate of
rainfall does not increase as fast.

Since the atmosphere is absorbing moisture faster than it can dump it, and
because wind is the major transporter of moisture into the atmosphere, air
circulation must slow down if the energy balance is to be maintained.

A drop in winds could reduce the strength of both surface and subsurface ocean
currents and dampen cold water upwelling at the equator.

"This could have important effects on ocean ecosystems," Vecchi said. "The
ocean currents driven by the trade winds supply vital nutrients to near-surface
ocean ecosystems across the equatorial Pacific, which is a major fishing region."

Noul studiu publicat astazi in revista Nature schimbrile climatice, care indic
accelerarea dramatic n condiii de vnt A revigorat micarea din Oceanul Pacific ,
cauzatoare de mai mult cldur s fie scoase din atmosfer i n ocean subteran
Transferat , aducnd n acelai timp apele reci la suprafata .

" Oamenii de stiinta - au suspectat de mult ca absorbtia suplimentar ocean

cldur a ncetinit creterea temperaturilor medii globale , mecanismul din
spatele hiatusul obiectiv rmas neclar ", a spus profesorul Matei Anglia , autorul
principal al studiului si un anchetator-sef la Centrul ARC de Excelen pentru
climatice sistem de Stiinta .

" Scopul absorbia de cldur este n nici un caz gruparea permanent : atunci
cnd puterea de vnt comercial revine la normal - aa cum inevitabil se va cercetarile noastre sugereaza cldur Will rapid se acumuleaz n atmosfera
Deci, temperaturile globale par a crete rapid din hiatusului , se ntoarce . la
nivelurile proiectate termen ct mai puin de un deceniu . "

Consolidarea a vnturilor comerciale Pacific nceput care se ncadreaz n anii

1990 i continu i astzi . Anterior , nu modele climatice - au incorporat o
Consolidarea vnt comercial Observat de amploarea , i modele tezei nu a reuit
s capteze hiatus n nclzire . Odat ce vnturile comerciale au fost adugate de
ctre cercettori, temperatura medie global semna ndeaproape observaiile
care se ncadreaz pe hiatusul
New research published today in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates
that the dramatic acceleration in winds has invigorated the circulation of the
Pacific Ocean, causing more heat to be taken out of the atmosphere and
transferred into the subsurface ocean, while bringing cooler waters to the
surface.

"Scientists have long suspected that extra ocean heat uptake has slowed the rise
of global average temperatures, but the mechanism behind the hiatus remained
unclear" said Professor Matthew England, lead author of the study and a Chief
Investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

"But the heat uptake is by no means permanent: when the trade wind strength
returns to normal - as it inevitably will - our research suggests heat will quickly
accumulate in the atmosphere. So global temperatures look set to rise rapidly out
of the hiatus, returning to the levels projected within as little as a decade."

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds began during the 1990s and
continues today. Previously, no climate models have incorporated a trade wind
strengthening of the magnitude observed, and these models failed to capture the
hiatus in warming. Once the trade winds were added by the researchers, the
global average temperatures very closely resembled the observations during the
hiat
Vnturile comerciale ( numite, de asemenea meserii expirate ) sunt modelul
predominant de suprafa est de vnturi gasit la tropice , n poriunea inferioar a
atmosferei Pmntului , n partea inferioar a troposferei n apropierea
ecuatorului Pmntului . [ 1 ] Vnturile comerciale sufla predominant de nord-est
n emisfera nordic i de sud-est n emisfera sudic , consolidarea se ncadreaz

n iarna i cnd s oscilaia Arctic este n TIC faza de cald . Punct de vedere istoric
, vnturile - au - fost comerciale folosite de ctre cpitanii de nave care
navigheaz s traverseze oceanele lumii timp de secole , i a permis extinderea
imperiului European n cele dou Americi i a rutelor comerciale pentru a deveni ,
stabilit n oceanele Atlantic i Pacific , totui, acest lucru nu este cazul n care
termenul originea " comerciale " . Termenul este derivat dintr-un cuvnt Mijlociu
limba englez nseamn " constant " sau " consistent " .

n meteorologie , vnturile comerciale acioneaz ca fluxul de direcie pentru

forma furtuni tropicale peste Atlantic care , Pacific , i Oceanele sud indiene i
face ajuns deasupra uscatului n America de Nord , Asia de Sud-Est , i Africa de
Est i Madagascar , respectiv . Trade Winds aussi conduce praf din Africa spre
vest peste Oceanul Atlantic n Marea Caraibelor , precum i poriuni din sud-estul
Americii de Nord . Nori cumulus de mic adncime sunt considerate cadrul
regimurilor eoliene comerciale , i sunt acoperite de a deveni mai inalt de o
inversiune vnt comer , tot ceea ce este cauzat de aer descendent sus din
cadrul creasta subtropicale . Mai slabe Devenii vnturile comerciale ,mai mult
precipitaiile poate fi de ateptat vecine, n landmasses .
The trade winds (also called trades) are the prevailing pattern of easterly surface
winds found in the tropics, within the lower portion of the Earth's atmosphere, in
the lower section of the troposphere near the Earth's equator.[1] The trade winds
blow predominantly from the northeast in the Northern Hemisphere and from the
southeast in the Southern Hemisphere, strengthening during the winter and when
the Arctic oscillation is in its warm phase. Historically, the trade winds have been
used by captains of sailing ships to cross the world's oceans for centuries, and
enabled European empire expansion into the Americas and trade routes to
become established across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, however, this is not
where the term "trade" originates. The term is derived from a Middle English
word meaning "steady" or "consistent".

In meteorology, the trade winds act as the steering flow for tropical storms that
form over the Atlantic, Pacific, and southern Indian Oceans and make landfall in
North America, Southeast Asia, and Madagascar and eastern Africa, respectively.
Trade winds also steer African dust westward across the Atlantic Ocean into the
Caribbean Sea, as well as portions of southeastern North America. Shallow
cumulus clouds are seen within trade wind regimes, and are capped from
becoming taller by a trade wind inversion, which is caused by descending air aloft
from within the subtropical ridge. The weaker the trade winds become, the more
rainfall can be expected within neighboring landmasses.
Surse:
Negu, L., (1981), Meteorologie maritim, Editura Sport Turism, Bucureti;
Ciulache, S., (2004), Meteorologie i climatologie, Editura Universitar, Bucureti;

[Link]
&rub=20&xml=[Link].20140210.a2bc3c33.6e12.482c
.[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]