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Documente Cultură
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Y
87.4
97.6
96.7
98.2
99.8
100.5
103.2
107.8
96.6
88.9
75.1
76.9
84.6
90.6
103.1
105.1
96.4
104.4
110.7
127.1
X1
98.6
101.2
102.4
100.9
102.3
101.5
101.6
101.6
99.8
100.3
97.6
97.2
97.3
96
99.2
100.3
100.3
104.1
105.3
107.6
X2
99.1
99.1
98.9
110.8
108.2
105.6
109.8
108.7
100.6
81
68.6
70.9
81.4
102.3
105
110.5
92.5
89.3
93
106.6
X3
108.5
110.1
110.4
104.3
107.2
105.8
107.8
103.4
102.7
104.1
99.2
99.7
102
94.3
97.7
101.1
102.3
104.4
108.5
111.3
AC coeficienii autocorelaiei
PAC coeficienii de autocorelare...
Q-stat statistica Ljung-Box . Q-stat are o distribuie asimptotic 2 cu un grad de
libertate egal cu . Valorile ridicate ale statisticii indic prezena autocorelaiei.
n coloana Prob, pentru anumit nivel de semnificaie se verific ipoteza despre existena
autocorelaiei. Presupunem, dac nivelul de semnificaie este 0,05, i valorile n coloana
Prob, mai mari dect 0,05, atunci se accept ipoteza despre prezenta autocorelaiei.
p
r j2
n j
st Durbin Watson
1. Estimam ecuaia liniar de regresie LS y x1 x2 x3 c
tstudent
TINV(0,05;20)
3,238871522
Fisher
FINV(0,05;3;16)
testul Student
T Student tabelar= 2.08596
T calc1= 9.7356
T calc 2=6.590977
T calc 3= -3.658727
Concluzie: Observam ca T calc2,T calc1> T tab, deci x1si x2 sunt semnificativ, iar
Tcalc3<Ttab, deci x3 este nesemnificativ.
Testul Fischer
F tab=3.23887
F calc=81.94784
Concluzie:Fcal>Ftab, deci
Fcal fiind mult mai mare ca Ftab concludem ca intre variabile este o
=0.05
N=20 de observatii
K=3(variabile)
D1=1
D2=1.68
DW calc=1.053794
D1 1<DWcalc 1.053794<D2 1.68
1 DW / 2 =1-(1.053794/2)=1- 0,525897=0,473103
et
1,197218
2,670174
-2,56218
-5,38922
-5,64547
-2,00663
0,363064
1,540767
0,01624
-0,47647
-3,04588
-0,17751
4,908354
0,756328
2,681048
1,158102
0,79134
-2,87918
0,851209
5,248683
et-et-1
DW=
1,053794
1,472956
-5,23235
-2,82704
-0,25625
3,638836
2,369697
1,177703
-1,52453
-0,49271
-2,56941
2,868366
5,085863
-4,15203
1,92472
-1,52295
-0,36676
-3,67052
3,730392
4,397474
et-et1patrat
2,16959938
27,3775075
7,99214951
0,06566509
13,2411274
5,61546387
1,38698436
2,32418257
0,24275822
6,60186775
8,22752351
25,8660025
17,2393199
3,70454708
2,31936452
0,13451436
13,4727391
13,9158245
19,3377776
171,234919
etpatrat
1,433331
7,129829
6,564756
29,04366
31,87132
4,026576
0,131815
2,373963
0,000264
0,227019
9,277355
0,031509
24,09194
0,572032
7,188018
1,3412
0,626219
8,289695
0,724557
27,54867
162,4937
NA
NA
-2.017319
-1.958390
-2.875873
-0.652984
0.129137
0.577496
-0.360402
0.242605
-3.597320
0.791218
3.861575
-2.778713
3.968315
0.054681
1.279265
-3.559054
2.868032
3.817426
Test Breusch-Godfrey
Prob.
0.4325
0.6241
0.4639
0.0702
0.1335
-0.214855
3.000977
5.168317
5.415643
1.435570
0.277442
LM= n*R2.
18* 0.306=5.508
2
LM< tabl .
5.508<5.991
In Eviews:
n obiectul Equation. alegem View/Residual Tests/Serial Correlation LM Test n continuare
introducem numrul de laguri p (implicit p=2).
ARCH Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
0.090339
0.214232
Probability
Probability
0.914115
0.898421
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/25/09 Time: 10:35
Sample(adjusted): 1983 2000
Included observations: 18 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
C
7.628521
3.912384
1.949840
RESID^2(-1)
0.119101
0.288623
0.412653
RESID^2(-2)
0.005333
0.289359
0.018430
R-squared
0.011902 Mean dependent var
Adjusted R-squared
-0.119845 S.D. dependent var
S.E. of regression
11.91957 Akaike info criterion
Sum squared resid
2131.142 Schwarz criterion
Log likelihood
-68.50727 F-statistic
Prob.
0.0701
0.6857
0.9855
8.551698
11.26372
7.945252
8.093647
0.090339
Durbin-Watson stat
0.914115
1.812882
Prob(F-statistic)
Procedurile de estimarea .
Yt Yt 1 (1 ) ( X t X t 1 ) t t 1
Pentru a obine valorile ecuaiei de regresie , folosim comanda LS YM X1M X2M X3M C
Realizam testul de detectare a autocorelaiei, folosind statistica Durbin.
Ym
Last updated:
11/25/09 10:45
Modified:
1981 2000 //
st=11.053794/2
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
0.473103
Pentru a obine valorile ecuaiei de regresie , folosim comanda LS YM X1M X2M X3M C
Realizam testul de detectare a autocorelaiei, folosind statistica Durbin.
Ym:
Last updated:
11/25/09 10:58
Modified:
1981 2000 //
ym=y0.473103* y(1)
1981
1982
1983
1984
NA
56.25396
50.52831
52.45410
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
53.34445
53.28748
55.65631
58.97893
45.60266
43.20141
33.04430
41.37313
48.22154
50.57865
60.24003
56.32624
46.68004
58.79603
61.31121
74.73066
X1m.
Last updated:
12/01/09 21:47
Modified:
1981 2000 //
xm=x10.473103*x1(
-1)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
NA
54.55204
54.52198
52.45425
54.56391
53.10156
53.58005
53.53274
51.73274
53.08432
50.14777
51.02515
51.31439
49.96708
53.78211
53.36818
52.84777
56.64777
56.04998
57.78225
X2m:
Last updated:
12/01/09 21:45
Modified:
1981 2000 //
x2m=x20.473103*x2(
-2)
1981
NA
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
NA
52.01549
63.91549
61.41011
53.18019
58.61026
58.74032
48.65329
29.57370
21.00584
32.57866
48.94513
68.75700
66.48942
62.10156
42.82418
37.02212
49.23797
64.35190
X3m:
Last updated:
12/01/09 21:46
Modified:
1981 2000 //
x3m=x30.473103*x3(
-3)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
NA
NA
NA
52.96832
55.11136
53.56943
58.45536
52.68336
52.64570
53.09950
50.28115
51.11232
52.74998
47.36818
50.53163
52.84349
57.68639
58.17784
60.66929
62.90156