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PROIECT ECONOMETRIE
PEE, ANUL I
Fie urmatoarele date referitoare la dinamica veniturilor (X1t), dinamica preturilor (X2t)
si evolutia cererii (Yt) pe piata unui produs (valorile sunt in procente ).
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
t
25
X
3.90
2.3
1.7
2.8
2.9
1.7
3.4
2.8
3.9
1.7
1.9
1.5
2.5
2.1
1.9
3.1
4.4
2.9
3.3
3.7
2.5
2.2
4.4
1.9
3.9
X1t
69.30
X
1.6
3.7
1.8
1.1
2.1
4.9
2.1
2.9
0.8
3.7
3.5
3.4
1.6
3.1
3.8
2
0.3
1.1
2.3
2.1
3.3
3.9
0.9
4.1
0.6
X2t
60.7
Y
2
L
9
0.5
1.5
3
1
0
2.1
1.8
3
0.7
0.5
1
1.4
1.2
0.8
2.3
3.5
3.8
1.8
2.6
0.8
1.2
4.2
0.8
2.5
YT
44
69.30
211.39
60.70
146.45
60.70
146.4
5
185.7
7
Calculam (X'*X)1 , si vom obtine o matrice formata din 3 linii si 3 coloane. Acesta
se calculeaza :
=MINVERSE(C31:E33).
2.6915
0.6017
0.4051
0.601
7
0.144
9
0.082
3
0.405
1
0.082
3
0.072
8
2 = -0.5591, ne arata ca evolutia cererii scade in medie cu aproximativ 0.5591 pentru fiecare
perioada de timp analizata.
Yt = 2.0831 + 0.3731*X1t -0.5591 *X2t
u
u^2
2.643
0.4145
8
0.643
8
0.872
0.1389
7
0.372
c. Calculati matricea de varianta a estimatorilor;
7
1.711
0.0446
u2
2
-1
2
Var() = su * ((X'*X) )su = nk 1
1
0.211
1
2.512
0.487
0.2372
Pentru a calcula matricea de covarianta , trebuie sa
9
1
2
1.991
0.9824 calculam Y, , U si U .
1
0.991
1
0.022
0.0005
0.022
1
1
2.177
0.0060
7
0.077
Rezultatele obtinute sunt prezente mai jos, dupa cum urmeaza:
7
1.506
0.293
0.0861
=MMULT(S10:U34,C41:C43)
6
4
U =D2-I37
3.091
0.0083
1
0.091
U^2=POWER(L37,2)
1
0.648
0.051
0.0026
8
2
0.835
0.1124
3
0.335
3
u2 = 6.2939
0.741
0.258
0.0666
9
1
SU^2
2.121
0.5205
4
0.721
0.2861
4
1.133
0.066
0.0044
VAR()
50.7700 5-0.1721
0.667
0.132
0.0175
0.115
6
4
9
2.121
0.178
0.0318
-0.1721
0.0415
0.023
7
3
6
3.557
0.0033
-0.1159
0.0236
0.020
2
0.057
8
2
2.550
1.249
1.5619
Dispersiile estimatorilor care ii gasim in , in tabelul de mai sus,
2
8
ii regasim pe diagonala.
2.028
0.0522
6
0.228
6
2.289
0.310
0.0963
7
3
1.171
0.1376
0
0.371
0
0.723
0.476
0.2270
Valoa Std
re
2.083 0.877
1
5
0.373 0.203
1
6
- 0.144
0.559
3
1
t-static
pvalue
2.3739 0.026
7
1.8324 0.080
4
- 0.000
3.8732
8
Ut-Ut-1
0.2711
0.1616
0.6982
-1.4782
1.0132
-0.0998
0.3712
-0.3845
0.1423
-0.3864
0.5933
-0.9795
0.7879
0.0660
0.0459
-0.2355
1.3070
-1.4784
0.5389
-0.6813
0.8474
0.5018
-0.6781
-1.0031
(Ut-Ut-1)2=
13.3424
0.4145
0.1389
0.0446
0.2372
0.9824
0.0005
0.0060
0.0861
0.0083
0.0026
0.1124
0.0666
0.5205
0.0044
0.0175
0.0318
0.0033
1.5619
0.0522
0.0963
0.1376
0.2270
0.9569
0.0901
0.4941
U2 =
6.2939
DW =
(1)
(2)
U tU t1
2.1199
u2
0.4145
0.1389
0.0446
0.2372
0.9824
0.0005
0.0060
0.0861
0.0083
0.0044
0.0175
0.0318
0.0033
1.5619
0.0522
0.0963
0.1376
0.2270
0.0026
0.1124
0.0666
suma
2.1002
0.9569
0.0901
0.4941
suma
3.6733
Su^2
0.2334
Su^2
0.4081
1.7490
W= 25*0.7907
W= 19,7675
Din tabelul cu datele tabelate pentru testul White, gasim cu 2 grade de libertate la valoarea de
37,65 de unde rezulta ca W=19,7675.
Din datele de mai sus reiese ca modelul este heteroscedastic.