Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
yt yt
Δ t/1= y t − y 1 Δt/t−1=yt −y t−1 i t/1 = it/t−1 =
y1 y t−1
Ani y Dt/2005 Dt/t-1 it/2005 it/t-1
2005 136 0 100% 100%
2006 153 17 17 112.5% 112.5%
2007 165 29 12 121.3% 107.8%
2008 170 34 5 125.0% 103.0%
2009 156 20 -14 114.7% 91.8%
2010 160 24 4 117.6% 102.6%
2011 174 38 14 127.9% 108.8%
2012 183 47 9 134.6% 105.2%
2013 190 54 7 139.7% 103.8%
2014 198 62 8 145.6% 104.2%
2015 195 59 -3 143.4% 98.5%
2016 205 69 10 150.7% 105.1%
2017 210 74 5 154.4% 102.4%
2018 214 78 4 157.4% 101.9%
total 78 157.4%
14
2019 224.7 10.7
n n
∑ Δt / t −1= Δn /1
t =2
∏ it /t−1=in/1 it / 1
=i t /t−1
t=2 i t−1/ 1
n
√
∑ Δt/t −1 Δ
n
∑ yt n−1
n
Δ̄= t=2
n−1
= n/1
n−1 ȳ=
t =1
n
ī = ∏ t /t−1 √in /1
i = n−1
t=2
y mediu 179.2 179.2 mii tone
D mediu 6 mii tone
I mediu 103.5%
r̄= ī −1
r mediu 3.5% r̄= ī −1
r̄ %= ī %−100
220
mii tone
200
180
160
140
120
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
y yteo_D
mii tone mii tone
r t/1=it/1 −1 rt/t−1=it/t−1−1
5% 2.14
i t /1
=i t /t −1 i2009/2008=(i2009/2005) / (i2008/2005)
−1/1
i2010/2007 *i2007/2005=i2010/2005
i2010/2007 = 97.0% 97.0%
i2007/2005= 121.3% 121.3% i t / t⋅i t / t =i t
' ' ''
i2010/2005= 117.6% 117.6%
117.6%
ti
yteo_ind
^y i= y1⋅ī = ^y i−1 ¿ ī
^y i= y1 +t i⋅¯ Δ = ^y i−1 + Δ̄
da 2005-2018
relatie de circularitate
i t / t⋅i t / t =i t /t
' ' '' ''
^y i−1 ¿ ī
−1 + Δ̄
Evolutia productiei de otel pentru SC "A" SRL (mii tone)
yt yt
Δ t / 1= y t − y 1 Δ t/t−1 = y t − y t−1 i t / 1 = it/t−1 =
y1 y t−1
Ani y Dt/2005 Dt/t-1 it/2005 it/t-1
2005 136 0 100% 100%
2006 153 17 17 112.5% 112.5%
2007 165 29 12 121.3% 107.8%
2008 170 34 5 125.0% 103.0%
2009 156 20 -14 114.7% 91.8%
2010 160 24 4 117.6% 102.6%
2011 174 38 14 127.9% 108.8%
2012 183 47 9 134.6% 105.2%
2013 190 54 7 139.7% 103.8%
2014 198 62 8 145.6% 104.2%
2015 195 59 -3 143.4% 98.5%
2016 205 69 10 150.7% 105.1%
2017 210 74 5 154.4% 102.4%
2018 214 78 4 157.4% 101.9%
total 78 157.4%
14
2019 224.7 10.7
n n
∑ Δt / t −1= Δn /1 ∏ it /t−1=in/1 it /1
t =2 t=2 =i t /t−1
it−1/1
√
n
n
∑ Δ t / t −1 ∑ yt n−1
n
Δ̄=
t=2
n−1
=
Δ n/ 1
n−1 ȳ= t =1
n
ī = ∏ it /t−1=n−1√in /1
t=2
y mediu 179.2 179.2 mii tone
D mediu 6 mii tone
I mediu 103.5%
r mediu 3.5%
r̄ = ī −1
r̄ %= ī %−100
1. Sa se traseze graficul seriei.
2. Se cere sa se calculeze indicatorii absoluti, relativi si medii.
3. Sa se ajusteze seria folosind metode mecanice: metoda modificarii medii absolute si metoda indicelui mediu de d
4. Sa se obtina previziunea pentru anii 2019 si 2020 folosind cele doua metode mecanice, anterior mentionate.
5. Sa se ajusteze seria folosind metode analitice: metoda regresiei liniare.
6. Sa se obtina previziunea pentru anii 2019 si 2020 folosind cele modelul liniar.
7. Care metoda de ajustare este cea mai buna pentru a fi folosita la previziune.
y yteo_D ti yteo_D yteo_ind
Ani
2005 136 136 0 136 136
2006 153 142 1 142 141
2007 165 148 2 148 146
2008 170 154 3 154 151
2009 156 160 4 160 156
2010 160 166 5 166 162
2011 174 172 6 172 168
2012 183 178 7 178 174
2013 190 184 8 184 180
2014 198 190 9 190 186
2015 195 196 10 196 193
2016 205 202 11 202 200
2017 210 208 12 208 207
2018 214 214 13 214 214
2019 220 14 220 222
2020 226 15 226 229
220
mii tone
200
180
160
140
120
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
y yteo_D yteo_ind yteo_regr
220
Evolutia productiei de otel la SC AAA SA in perioada 2005-2018
200
mii tone
180
220
Evolutia productiei de otel la SC AAA SA in perioada 2005-2018
200
160
140
120
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
n=13
Ani y ti yteo-regresie
2005 136 1 143.714 143.714
2006 153 2 149.176 149.176
2007 165 3 154.637 154.637
2008 170 4 160.099 160.099
2009 156 5 165.560 165.560
2010 160 6 171.022 171.022
2011 174 7 176.484 176.484
2012 183 8 181.945 181.945
2013 190 9 187.407 187.407
2014 198 10 192.868 192.868
2015 195 11 198.330 198.330
2016 205 12 203.791 203.791
2017 210 13 209.253 209.253
2018 214 14 214.714 214.714
a0 138.25 r 0.9620
a1 5.4615 mii tone r^2=R^2 0.9255
coef de determinatie
180
160
140
120
100
160
140
120
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
mii tone mii tone
yt
t−1 =
r t/1 =i t/1 −1 r t/t−1=it /t−1 −1
y t−1
rt/2005 rt/t-1 At/2005 At/t-1
0% 0%
12.5% 12.5% 1.36 1.36
21.3% 7.8% 1.36 1.53
25.0% 3.0% 1.36 1.65
14.7% -8.2% 1.36 1.7
17.6% 2.6% 1.36 1.56000000000001
27.9% 8.8% 1.36 1.6
34.6% 5.2% 1.36 1.74
39.7% 3.8% 1.36 1.83
45.6% 4.2% 1.36 1.9
43.4% -1.5% 1.36 1.98
50.7% 5.1% 1.36 1.95
54.4% 2.4% 1.36 2.05
57.4% 1.9% 1.36 2.10000000000001
5% 2.14
it /1
=it /t−1 i2009/2008=(i2009/2005) / (i2008/2005)
it−1/1
i2010/2007 *i2007/2005=i2010/2005
i2010/2007 = 97.0% 97.0%
i2007/2005= 121.3% 121.3%
i2010/2005= 117.6% 117.6%
117.6%
i t / t⋅i t / t =i t /t
' ' '' ''
^y i= y1
yteo_ind
^y i= y1
e_D = yi - yteo_D e_D^2 e_ind = yi - yteo_ind e_ind^2
136 0 0 0 0.0
141 11 121 12.2 148.2
146 17 289 19.2 367.7
151 16 256 19.0 361.1
156 -4 16 -0.4 0.1
162 -6 36 -1.9 3.6
168 2 4 6.3 40.3
174 5 25 9.4 88.4
180 6 36 10.2 104.9
186 8 64 11.9 140.7
193 -1 1 2.3 5.1
200 3 9 5.4 29.3
207 2 4 3.3 11.1
214 0 0 0.0 0.0
222
229
59 861 96.9 1300.5
la SC AAA SA
perioada 2005-2018
perioada 2005-2018
medie de la un an la altul
regresiei este cea mai buna met. de ajustare a trendului si se va folosi pentru previziune lui pentru aceste date.
i2009/2008= 91.8% 91.8%
i2009/2005= 114.7%
i2008/2005= 125.0%
relatie de circularitate
^y i= y1⋅ī t i = ^y i−1 ¿ ī
^y i= y1⋅ī t i = ^y i−1 ¿ ī
^y i= y1 +t i⋅¯ Δ = ^y i−1 + Δ̄
aceste date.