SPANIA

Economia Spaniei este a paisprezecea cea mai mare din lume dupa PIB-ul nominal ,este a
cincea ca mărime din Europa după Germania, Regatul Unit, Franța și Italia, precum și a patra
ca mărime din zona euro pe baza statisticilor PIB-ului nominal. Spania este listată pe locul
25 în Indicele Dezvoltării Umane al Organizației Națiunilor Unite și pe locul 32 în PIB pe cap

de locuitor de către Banca Mondială.

PIB NOMINAL

REGRESIA LINIARA
Regresia liniara 1
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ AN)
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN
-64496420 32675
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ AN)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-258255 -126350 -18851 81721 511027
Coefficients
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -64496420 3190252 -20.22 <2e-16 ***
AN 32675 1599 20.43 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 168100 on 49 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.895, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8928
F-statistic: 417.5 on 1 and 49 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Regresia liniara 2
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ AN + I(AN^2))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN I(AN^2)
7.260e+08 -7.599e+05 1.986e+02
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ AN + I(AN^2))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-306460 -119821 -15103 58670 520495
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 7.260e+08 4.752e+08 1.528 0.133
AN -7.599e+05 4.764e+05 -1.595 0.117
I(AN^2) 1.986e+02 1.194e+02 1.664 0.103
Residual standard error: 165100 on 48 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9007, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8966
F-statistic: 217.7 on 2 and 48 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Regresia liniara 2
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ AN + I(AN^2) + I(AN^3))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN I(AN^2) I(AN^3)
2.712e+11 -4.076e+08 2.041e+05 -3.407e+01
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ AN + I(AN^2) + I(AN^3))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-294696 -74225 9779 64391 422695
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 2.712e+11 6.285e+10 4.315 8.14e-05 ***
AN -4.076e+08 9.452e+07 -4.312 8.23e-05 ***
I(AN^2) 2.041e+05 4.738e+04 4.308 8.33e-05 ***
I(AN^3) -3.407e+01 7.916e+00 -4.304 8.44e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 141300 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9288, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9242
F-statistic: 204.3 on 3 and 47 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
 Ajustarea dupa o functie polinomiala

f. polinomiala 1
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ poly(AN, degree = 1))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 1)
689488 3434725
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ poly(AN, degree = 1))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-258255 -126350 -18851 81721 511027

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 689488 23538 29.29 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 1) 3434725 168094 20.43 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 168100 on 49 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.895, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8928
F-statistic: 417.5 on 1 and 49 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

f. polinomiala 2

Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ poly(AN, degree = 2))
Coefficients:
 (Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 2)1 poly(AN, degree = 2)2
689488 3434725 274745

Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ poly(AN, degree = 2))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-306460 -119821 -15103 58670 520495
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 689488 23124 29.817 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 2)1 3434725 165141 20.799 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 2)2 274745 165141 1.664 0.103
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 165100 on 48 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.9007, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8966
F-statistic: 217.7 on 2 and 48 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

f.polinomiala 3
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ poly(AN, degree = 3))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 3)1 poly(AN, degree = 3)2 poly(AN, degree = 3)3
689488 3434725 274745 -608334
Call:
lm(formula = PIB ~ poly(AN, degree = 3))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-294696 -74225 9779 64391 422695
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 689488 19792 34.837 < 2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 3)1 3434725 141343 24.301 < 2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 3)2 274745 141343 1.944 0.0579 .
poly(AN, degree = 3)3 -608335 141343 -4.304 8.44e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 141300 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9288, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9242
F-statistic: 204.3 on 3 and 47 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

===================================================================
==
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 689488.11 *** 689488.11 *** 689488.11 ***
(23537.83) (23124.37) (19792.03)
poly(AN, degree = 1) 3434724.89 ***
(168093.70)
poly(AN, degree = 2)1 3434724.89 ***
(165141.00)
poly(AN, degree = 2)2 274744.58
(165141.00)
poly(AN, degree = 3)1 3434724.89 ***
(141343.37)
poly(AN, degree = 3)2 274744.58
(141343.37)
poly(AN, degree = 3)3 -608334.49 ***
 (141343.37)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
R^2 0.89 0.90 0.93
Adj. R^2 0.89 0.90 0.92
Num. obs. 51 51 51
===================================================================
==
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05

===================================================================
==
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 689488.11 *** 689488.11 *** 689488.11 ***
(23537.83) (23124.37) (19792.03)
poly(AN, degree = 1) 3434724.89 ***
(168093.70)
poly(AN, degree = 2)1 3434724.89 ***
(165141.00)
poly(AN, degree = 2)2 274744.58
(165141.00)
poly(AN, degree = 3)1 3434724.89 ***
(141343.37)
poly(AN, degree = 3)2 274744.58
(141343.37)
poly(AN, degree = 3)3 -608334.49 ***
(141343.37)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
R^2 0.89 0.90 0.93
Adj. R^2 0.89 0.90 0.92
Num. obs. 51 51 51
===================================================================
==
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
La polinomul de gradul 1 se obtine o valoare a lui p= 2e-16 mai mica decat un p=0,05 , la
polinomul de gradul 2 o val de p= 0,0579 iar pentru polinomul de gradul 3 o valoare p=8.44e-
05 rezulta ca polinomul de gradul 3 este cel care ajusteaza cel mai bine evolutia pib-ului
nominal.

PIB NOMINAL CAP LOCUITOR

REGRESIA LINIARA
Regresia liniara 1
Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ AN)
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN
-1351502.1 685.4
Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ AN)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-5524.0 -2431.3 -14.6 1585.7 10581.5
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -1.352e+06 6.406e+04 -21.10 <2e-16 ***
AN 6.854e+02 3.211e+01 21.35 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 3375 on 49 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9029, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9009
F-statistic: 455.6 on 1 and 49 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Regresia liniara 2
Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ AN + I(AN^2))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN I(AN^2)
1.892e+06 -2.567e+03 8.151e-01
Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ AN + I(AN^2))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-5856.8 -2474.9 72.5 1453.5 10620.3
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 1.892e+06 9.801e+06 0.193 0.848
AN -2.567e+03 9.826e+03 -0.261 0.795
I(AN^2) 8.151e-01 2.463e+00 0.331 0.742
Residual standard error: 3406 on 48 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9031, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8991
F-statistic: 223.7 on 2 and 48 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Regresia liniara 3

Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ AN + I(AN^2) + I(AN^3))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN I(AN^2) I(AN^3)
5.785e+09 -8.700e+06 4.360e+03 -7.284e-01
Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ AN + I(AN^2) + I(AN^3))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-6118.3 -1542.4 -100.1 1264.6 8529.5
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 5.785e+09 1.277e+09 4.529 4.05e-05 ***
AN -8.700e+06 1.921e+06 -4.529 4.05e-05 ***
I(AN^2) 4.360e+03 9.628e+02 4.529 4.06e-05 ***
I(AN^3) -7.284e-01 1.609e-01 -4.528 4.07e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 2872 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9325, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9282
F-statistic: 216.6 on 3 and 47 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Ajustarea dupa o functie polinomiala

f. polinomiala 1

Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ poly(AN, degree = 1))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 1)
15788 72044
Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ poly(AN, degree = 1))

Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-5524.0 -2431.3 -14.6 1585.7 10581.5

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 15788.4 472.6 33.41 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 1) 72044.2 3375.1 21.35 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 3375 on 49 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.9029, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9009
F-statistic: 455.6 on 1 and 49 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

f. polinomiala 2
Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ poly(AN, degree = 2))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 2)1 poly(AN, degree = 2)2
15788 72044 1127
Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ poly(AN, degree = 2))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-5856.8 -2474.9 72.5 1453.5 10620.3
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 15788 477 33.102 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 2)1 72044 3406 21.151 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 2)2 1127 3406 0.331 0.742
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 3406 on 48 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9031, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8991
F-statistic: 223.7 on 2 and 48 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

f.polinomiala 3

Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ poly(AN, degree = 3))

Coefficients:
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 3)1 poly(AN, degree = 3)2 poly(AN, degree = 3)3
15788 72044 1127 -13006
Call:
lm(formula = PIB1 ~ poly(AN, degree = 3))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-6118.3 -1542.4 -100.1 1264.6 8529.5
Coefficients:
 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 15788.4 402.2 39.254 < 2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 3)1 72044.2 2872.3 25.082 < 2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 3)2 1127.4 2872.3 0.392 0.696
poly(AN, degree = 3)3 -13005.6 2872.3 -4.528 4.07e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 2872 on 47 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.9325, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9282
F-statistic: 216.6 on 3 and 47 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

================================================================
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
----------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 15788.36 *** 15788.36 *** 15788.36 ***
(472.61) (476.96) (402.21)
poly(AN, degree = 1) 72044.20 ***
(3375.12)
poly(AN, degree = 2)1 72044.20 ***
(3406.21)
poly(AN, degree = 2)2 1127.37
(3406.21)
poly(AN, degree = 3)1 72044.20 ***
(2872.33)
poly(AN, degree = 3)2 1127.37
(2872.33)
poly(AN, degree = 3)3 -13005.57 ***
(2872.33)
----------------------------------------------------------------
R^2 0.90 0.90 0.93
Adj. R^2 0.90 0.90 0.93
Num. obs. 51 51 51
================================================================
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05

La polinomul de gradul 1 se obtine o valoare a lui p= 2e-16 mai mica decat un p=0,05 , la
polinomul de gradul 2 o val de p= 0.696 iar pentru polinomul de gradul 3 o valoare p=4.07e-
05 rezulta ca polinomul de gradul 3 este cel care ajusteaza cel mai bine evolutia pib-ului
nominal pe cap de locuitor.

PIB REAL

REGRESIA LINIARA
Regresia liniara 1

Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ AN)
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN
-37860921 19405
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ AN)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-155771 -44334 -8228 36201 146444
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -37860921 1133153 -33.41 <2e-16 ***
AN 19405 568 34.16 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 59710 on 49 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.9597, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9589
F-statistic: 1167 on 1 and 49 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Regresia liniara 2
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ AN + I(AN^2))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN I(AN^2)
-4.603e+06 -1.394e+04 8.357e+00
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ AN + I(AN^2))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-159183 -44212 -8298 34832 147051
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -4.603e+06 1.735e+08 -0.027 0.979
AN -1.394e+04 1.740e+05 -0.080 0.936
I(AN^2) 8.357e+00 4.360e+01 0.192 0.849

Residual standard error: 60300 on 48 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.9597, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9581
F-statistic: 572.1 on 2 and 48 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Regresia liniara 3
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ AN + I(AN^2) + I(AN^3))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN I(AN^2) I(AN^3)
1.216e+11 -1.829e+08 9.167e+04 -1.531e+01
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ AN + I(AN^2) + I(AN^3))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-84278 -35103 3460 31080 101879
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 1.216e+11 2.049e+10 5.934 3.38e-07 ***
AN -1.829e+08 3.081e+07 -5.935 3.37e-07 ***
I(AN^2) 9.167e+04 1.544e+04 5.935 3.37e-07 ***
I(AN^3) -1.531e+01 2.581e+00 -5.935 3.38e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 46070 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.977, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9755
F-statistic: 665.1 on 3 and 47 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Ajustarea dupa o functie polinomiala

f. polinomiala 1
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ poly(AN, degree = 1))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 1)
851226 2039790
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ poly(AN, degree = 1))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-155771 -44334 -8228 36201 146444
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 851226 8360 101.82 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 1) 2039790 59706 34.16 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 59710 on 49 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9597, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9589
F-statistic: 1167 on 1 and 49 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

f. polinomiala 2
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ poly(AN, degree = 2))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 2)1 poly(AN, degree = 2)2
851226 2039790 11559
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ poly(AN, degree = 2))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-159183 -44212 -8298 34832 147051
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 851226 8444 100.810 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 2)1 2039790 60301 33.827 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 2)2 11558 60301 0.192 0.849
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 60300 on 48 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9597, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9581
F-statistic: 572.1 on 2 and 48 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

f.polinomiala 3
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ poly(AN, degree = 3))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 3)1 poly(AN, degree = 3)2 poly(AN, degree = 3)3
851226 2039790 11559 -273439
Call:
lm(formula = PIB2 ~ poly(AN, degree = 3))
Residuals:
 Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-84278 -35103 3460 31080 101879
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 851226 6452 131.940 < 2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 3)1 2039790 46074 44.272 < 2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 3)2 11558 46074 0.251 0.803
poly(AN, degree = 3)3 -273439 46074 -5.935 3.38e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 46070 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.977, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9755
F-statistic: 665.1 on 3 and 47 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

===================================================================
==
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 851225.92 *** 851225.92 *** 851225.92 ***
(8360.45) (8443.86) (6451.60)
poly(AN, degree = 1) 2039790.18 ***
(59705.57)
poly(AN, degree = 2)1 2039790.18 ***
(60301.22)
poly(AN, degree = 2)2 11558.50
(60301.22)
poly(AN, degree = 3)1 2039790.18 ***
(46073.62)
poly(AN, degree = 3)2 11558.50
(46073.62)
poly(AN, degree = 3)3 -273438.88 ***
(46073.62)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
R^2 0.96 0.96 0.98
Adj. R^2 0.96 0.96 0.98
Num. obs. 51 51 51
===================================================================
==
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
La polinomul de gradul 1 se obtine o valoare a lui p= 2e-16 mai mica decat un p=0,05 , la
polinomul de gradul 2 o val de p= 0.803 iar pentru polinomul de gradul 3 o valoare p=3.38e-
07 rezulta ca polinomul de gradul 3 este cel care ajusteaza cel mai bine evolutia pib-ului real.

PIB REAL CAP LOCUITOR

REGRESIA LINIARA
Regresia liniara 1

Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ AN)
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN
-657734.1 339.9
Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ AN)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-3520.4 -784.9 -99.8 631.9 2734.1
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -657734.07 25902.16 -25.39 <2e-16 ***
AN 339.85 12.98 26.18 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 1365 on 49 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9333, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9319
F-statistic: 685.2 on 1 and 49 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Regresia liniara 2
Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ AN + I(AN^2))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN I(AN^2)
-9.567e+06 9.272e+03 -2.239e+00
Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ AN + I(AN^2))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-2606.4 -951.5 -132.6 814.2 2571.5
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -9.567e+06 3.754e+06 -2.549 0.0141 *
AN 9.272e+03 3.763e+03 2.464 0.0174 *
I(AN^2) -2.239e+00 9.431e-01 -2.374 0.0217 *
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 1304 on 48 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9403, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9378
F-statistic: 377.8 on 2 and 48 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Regresia liniara 3

Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ AN + I(AN^2) + I(AN^3))

Coefficients:
(Intercept) AN I(AN^2) I(AN^3)
2.537e+09 -3.821e+06 1.918e+03 -3.208e-01
Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ AN + I(AN^2) + I(AN^3))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-2341.1 -759.0 -151.7 855.7 2138.2
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 2.537e+09 4.535e+08 5.596 1.10e-06 ***
AN -3.821e+06 6.819e+05 -5.603 1.07e-06 ***
I(AN^2) 1.918e+03 3.418e+02 5.610 1.04e-06 ***
I(AN^3) -3.208e-01 5.711e-02 -5.617 1.02e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 1020 on 47 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.9643, Adjusted R-squared: 0.962
F-statistic: 422.7 on 3 and 47 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

Ajustarea dupa o functie polinomiala

f. polinomiala 1

Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ poly(AN, degree = 1))
Coefficients:
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 1)
20274 35725
Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ poly(AN, degree = 1))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-3520.4 -784.9 -99.8 631.9 2734.1
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 20274.3 191.1 106.09 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 1) 35725.1 1364.8 26.18 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 1365 on 49 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9333, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9319
F-statistic: 685.2 on 1 and 49 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

f. polinomiala 2

Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ poly(AN, degree = 2))
Coefficients
(Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 2)1 poly(AN, degree = 2)2
20274 35725 -3096
Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ poly(AN, degree = 2))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-2606.4 -951.5 -132.6 814.2 2571.5
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 20274.3 182.7 110.992 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 2)1 35725.1 1304.5 27.386 <2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 2)2 -3096.3 1304.5 -2.374 0.0217 *
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 1304 on 48 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9403, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9378
F-statistic: 377.8 on 2 and 48 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

f. polinomiala 3
Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ poly(AN, degree = 3))
Coefficients:
 (Intercept) poly(AN, degree = 3)1 poly(AN, degree = 3)2 poly(AN, degree = 3)3
20274 35725 -3096 -5728
Call:
lm(formula = PIB3 ~ poly(AN, degree = 3))
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-2341.1 -759.0 -151.7 855.7 2138.2
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 20274.3 142.8 141.985 < 2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 3)1 35725.1 1019.7 35.034 < 2e-16 ***
poly(AN, degree = 3)2 -3096.3 1019.7 -3.036 0.0039 **
poly(AN, degree = 3)3 -5727.8 1019.7 -5.617 1.02e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 1020 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9643, Adjusted R-squared: 0.962
F-statistic: 422.7 on 3 and 47 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

===============================================================
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
---------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 20274.35 *** 20274.35 *** 20274.35 ***
(191.11) (182.67) (142.79)
poly(AN, degree = 1) 35725.09 ***
(1364.78)
poly(AN, degree = 2)1 35725.09 ***
(1304.49)
poly(AN, degree = 2)2 -3096.32 *
(1304.49)
poly(AN, degree = 3)1 35725.09 ***
(1019.74)
poly(AN, degree = 3)2 -3096.32 **
(1019.74)
poly(AN, degree = 3)3 -5727.78 ***
(1019.74)
---------------------------------------------------------------
R^2 0.93 0.94 0.96
Adj. R^2 0.93 0.94 0.96
Num. obs. 51 51 51
===============================================================
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
La polinomul de gradul 1 se obtine o valoare a lui p= 2e-16 mai mica decat un p=0,05 , la
polinomul de gradul 2 o val de p= 0.0039 iar pentru polinomul de gradul 3 o valoare p=1.02e-
06 rezulta ca polinomul de gradul 3 este cel care ajusteaza cel mai bine evolutia pib-ului real
pe cap locuitor.