Universitatea din Bucureti

Facultatea de Istorie

Analiza deciziei n politica extern. Statele Unite i criza Golfului Tonkin din August 1964

Coordonator tiinific: Lect. univ. dr. Bogdan Antoniu

Absolvent: Iulian Toader

Bucureti, 2011

Prinilor i bunicilor mei

CUPRINS

CUPRINS............................................................................................................................ 3 CAPITOL INTRODUCTIV METODOLOGIC ................................................................. 4 I. ABORDRI TEORETICE DE ANALIZ A POLITICII EXTERNE ........................ 16 1. Politica extern. Definiii i probleme conceptuale .................................................. 16 2. Teorii explicative i modele de analiz..................................................................... 20 2.1. Abordri sistemice i problema raionalitii actorilor ...................................... 20 2.2. Abordri decizionale n analiza de politic extern ........................................... 24 3. Particulariti ale deciziei n situaii de criz ............................................................ 35 II. PROCESUL DECIZIONAL N POLITICA EXTERN A STATELOR UNITE DUP 1945....................................................................................................................... 40 1. Cadrul constituional i relaii inter-instituionale n sistemul politic american ....... 40 2. Instituii cu rol decizional n politica extern american dup 1945 ........................ 46 III. CRIZA GOLFULUI TONKIN DIN AUGUST 1964................................................. 54 1. Contextul istoric al crizei .......................................................................................... 54 2. Administraia Johnson. Factori de decizie i tiparul procesului decizional.............. 60 3. Vietnam: noiembrie 1963 iulie 1964 ..................................................................... 66 4. Incidentele din Golful Tonkin de la nceputul lunii august ...................................... 71 5. Evaluarea crizei din 4 august din perspectiva unitii de decizie ............................. 80 IV. CONCLUZII............................................................................................................. 110 ANEXE ........................................................................................................................... 116 BIBLIOGRAFIE............................................................................................................. 125

CAPITOL INTRODUCTIV METODOLOGIC

Semnificaia studierii temei
n general, orice persoan manifest interes pentru un fenomen a crui evoluie este posibil s-i afecteze viaa cotidian ntr-o oarecare msur. Cel puin n ultimele dou secole a existat un anumit grad de contientizare n rndul populaiei c dinamica politicii externe i influeneaz, direct sau indirect, propria existen. Totui, faptul c informaiile despre aceast dinamic erau inaccesibile publicului larg a determinat ca politica extern s rmn un domeniu de activitate enigmatic, rezervat elitelor. ns, odat cu revoluia mijloacelor de comunicare n mas prin care un segment tot mai larg din populaie are capacitatea de a accesa zilnic informaii despre evenimente care au loc oriunde pe glob, din China pn n Statele Unite, contientizarea a devenit mult mai profund. De asemenea, politica extern a devenit un domeniu accesibil, iar aceste circumstane au determinat ca interesul pentru astfel de subiecte s creasc proporional1. A fost un proces ndelungat, ns, fie ca specialiti, fie ca simpli observatori, am putut constata n ultimii ani o intensificare a ateniei acordate n spaiul public subiectelor de politic extern2. Pornit dintr-un interes deosebit pentru studierea fenomenelor din sfera relaiilor internaionale, lucrarea de fa ncearc s contribuie la dezvoltarea tiparelor de nelegere a proceselor decizionale complexe n situaii de criz pe care se fundamenteaz comportamentul extern al actorilor din arena internaional. Credem c nelegerea fenomenelor de politic extern i, mai departe, a modalitii n care se iau deciziile n politica internaional este deosebit de important, mai ales n contextul vremurilor n care trim, cnd suntem bombardai zilnic de cantiti nemrginite de informaii care ne prezint noi evoluii ale evenimentelor din spaiul socio-politic extern. Deoarece studiul
1

Vezi i Mark Webber, Michael Smith, Foreign policy in a transformed world, Harlow, Pearson, 2002, pp.36-37. 2 Aceast observaie se aplic n funcie de gradul de dezvoltare i tipul de sistem de guvernmnt existent ntr-un areal politic. Cu ct un stat este mai liberal i asigur bunstare unui segment ct mai larg din rndul populaiei, cu att mai mult cetenii vor avea acces la informaii i vor fi interesai de politica extern a respectivului stat. Una dintre consecinele acestei situaii este dezbaterea mai intens i articulat a problemelor specifice fenomenelor de politic extern. Vezi o observaie asemntoare n M. Webber, M. Smith, op.cit., pp.50-51.

relaiilor internaionale necesit luarea n considerare a fiecrui factor care influeneaz comportamentul uman, producerea unor instrumente prin care s nelegem aceste mesaje pe care le primim zilnic, prin care s explicm fenomenele i s prezicem evoluia evenimentelor, este provocarea cea mai dificil pe care un specialist trebuie s o nfrunte.
Trim

ntr-o lume definit de propriile imagini, afirma universitarul american

Charles Kegley ntr-o lucrare binecunoscut de sintez a principalelor abordri teoretice din sfera relaiilor internaionale3. Adeseori, aceste imagini pot fi doar iluzii sau prejudeci, astfel c putem interpreta lumea distorsionat, ceea ce va conduce la imposibilitatea de a-i nelege complexitatea i evoluia. ntr-o asemenea situaie, inevitabil, comportamentele ce decurg din aceast interpretare pot provoca consecine dezastruoase. Aadar, studiul fenomenului politicii externe este mai mult dect necesar pentru a diminua efectul acestor imagini mentale i a evita producerea de catastrofe care s afecteze iremediabil existena noastr ca indivizi. Investigarea modului cum sistemul internaional funcioneaz i a schimbrilor ce refac ordinea politic sau economic mondial ne poate ajuta pe termen lung s evitm producerea unor catastrofe asemenea celor dou rzboaie mondiale. Totodat, trebuie s fim contieni de existena acestor imagini mentale sau lentile teoretice, care s-au unit sub forma unor coli de gndire i care abordeaz diferit fenomenul politicii externe. Ele pot fi depite prin autospecializare, altfel spus, printr-o examinare temeinic a fiecrora n parte pentru a deprinde o imagine ct mai ampl de nelegere a fenomenului. La jumtatea secolului trecut, n plin avnt al curentului behaviorist n tiinele sociale, un noul val de cercettori, n special din spaiul academic anglo-saxon, provoac asumpiile colilor de gndire tradiionale care dominau analiza relaiilor internaionale. Conform paradigmelor clasice, statul este considerat un actor unitar i raional, iar ntre politica intern i cea extern exist o demarcaie conceptual rigid, fiind suficient s nelegem doar motivaiile statelor n termeni de interes naional i competiie pentru putere sau securitate pentru a descifra comportamentul lor politic. ns, noua generaie de cercettori a avut curiozitatea s deschid cutia neagr a statului pentru a nelege cum definesc factorii de decizie situaia n care acioneaz i pentru a investiga alegerile de politic extern ale actorilor, astfel nct s analizeze mecanismele ce se afl n spatele
3

Charles Kegley, World Politics: Trend and Transformation, 12th ed., Belmont, Wadsworth, 2008, pp.8-9.

procesului decizional. De asemenea, ei au contestat conceptualizarea statelor sub forma unor actori raionali i unitari, cercetnd mai ales rolul fiinelor umane ce acioneaz individual sau n grup n influenarea sistemului internaional4. Ca urmare, conform acestei perspective, pentru a nelege comportamentul actorilor de pe scena internaional este necesar cu precdere s analizm cum se ia decizia de politica extern. Demersul nostru se situeaz exact n aceast abordare teoretic, mai precis, n efortul de investigare a modalitii n care procesele decizionale i caracteristicile factorilor de decizie influeneaz alegerile de politic extern i fenomenele din sfera politicii internaionale. Dup cum susineau primii cercettori n domeniu, cheia analizei de politic extern este s ne concentrm asupra actului de luare a deciziei, s adoptm perspectiva actorului direct implicat i s reconstruim lumea decidenilor. Pentru a explica orice secven a unei aciuni politice, analistul trebuie s stabileasc cine sunt responsabilii pentru luarea deciziilor-cheie care au dat natere aciunii i apoi s evalueze procesul prin care decidenii au ajuns la concluzii5. Mai departe, am particularizat demersul nostru la un fenomen de criz pentru a observa ce modificri asupra porcesului decizional aduc elementele situaiilor de criz i n ce mod influeneaz alegerile de politic extern. Credem c nelegerea modului cum situaiile de criz constrng actul decizional, precum i a impactului acestora asupra procesului de ansamblu, poate conduce spre ameliorarea circumstanelor n care este selectat alternativa de aciune. Pentru nelegerea acestor particulariti am recurs n demersul nostru la analiza crizei Golfului Tonkin din august 1964 deoarece a avut ca urmare imediat adoptarea de ctre Congresul Statelor Unite a unei rezoluii care i-a oferit preedintelui Lyndon Johnson un cec n alb pentru a aciona n Vietnam, act legislativ de o deosebit importan pentru escaladarea militar definitiv care va surveni anul viitor. Aadar, o imagine cuprinztoare a implicrii americane n rzboiul din Vietnam nu se poate contura fr nelegerea primei secvene din cadrul fenomenului de ansamblu.

Vezi Valerie Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Actor-Specific Theory and the Ground of International Relations, Foreign Policy Analysis, vol.1, nr.1, 2005, pp.1-30. 5 James Rosenau, The Premises and Promises of Decision-Making Analysis, n James C. Charlesworth, Contemporary Political Analysis, New York, Free Press, 1967, pp.194-195.

Stadiul cercetrii
Analiza de politic extern (Foreign Policy Analysis FPA) s-a dezvoltat ca domeniu de cercetare n interiorul disciplinei relaiilor internaionale, concentrndu-se mai ales pe rolul fiinelor umane, ce acioneaz individual sau n grup, i a procesului decizional n influenarea alegerilor de politic extern. Pentru a nelege de ce s-a simit nevoia apariiei unei noi ramuri a tiinelor sociale, punctul de plecare a discuiei este sfritul celui de-al Doilea rzboi mondial. Leciile deprinse deopotriv de practicieni i oameni de tiin, n urma evoluiilor politice din perioada interbelic, au ajutat la restabilirea dominaiei paradigmei realiste i a politicii de putere n studiul relaiilor internaionale6. Asumpiile colii de gndire care dominase doctrina i practica politic ntre cele dou rzboaie mondiale erau repuse n discuie. Redescoperindu-i pe Machiavelli i Hobbes, realitii acuzau liberalismul de tradiie kantian i idealismul wilsonian de a fi contribuit major la izbucnirea unei noi conflagraii mondiale7. De asemenea, odat cu debutul Rzboiului rece i emergena Uniunii Sovietice i a Statelor Unite ca unice superputeri pe arena internaional, preocuparea realist pentru securitatea militar a cunoscut un nou avnt, n special n lumea academic anglo-saxon. Aadar, dup o disput intens pentru ntietate pe tot parcursul anilor 40, ncepnd cu urmtorul deceniu realismul avea s devin abordarea predominant n analiza relaiilor internaionale. Simultan cu restabilirea dominaiei colii de gndire realiste, un nou curent revoluionar i fcea apariia n mediul academic al tiinelor sociale. Prima etap a Rzboiului rece cu toate caracteristicile sale, n special cursa narmrii, riscul de escaladare a unor crize ntr-un rzboi nuclear i competiia permanent ntre superputeri pentru progresul tehnologic, a influenat n mod semnificativ lumea academic american. Finanai masiv din fonduri federale, un nou val de cercettori din Statele Unite au fost recrutai pentru a contribui la progresul tiinific. Aceast adevrat politic

Laura Neack, Jeanne Hey, Patrick Haney, Generational Change in Foreign Policy Analysis, n Laura Neack, Jeanne Hey, Patrick Haney (eds.), Foreign policy analysis: continuity and change in its second generation, Englewood Cliffs, Prentice Hall, 1995, pp.5-6. 7 Vezi, mai ales, Edward. H. Carr, The Twenty Years' Crisis: 1919-1939. An introduction to the study of international relations, 2nd ed., Londra, Macmillan, 1946, pp.22-63 i Hans Morgenthau, Scientific Man vs. Power Politics, Londra, Latimer House Ltd., 1947.

de stat, de a susine cercetarea academic, a creat un puternic impuls n rndul cercettorilor din tiinele sociale de a deveni mai tiinifici. Mai precis, adoptnd metodologii riguroase de studiu, specifice tiinelor exacte, noul val de savani ncerca s demonstreze c ipotezele (teoriile) pot fi testate n lumea real prin metode cantitative. Tot acest efort avea menirea de a se descoperi modele de comportament corespunznd unor conjuncturi date i care s ajute la formarea unor aa-numite legi obiective ale umanului pe care s se bazeze valoarea predictiv i explicativ a teoriilor. n locul unor postulate morale sau legi istorice, oamenii de tiin au nceput s investigheze aciunile, atitudinile sau preferinele fiinelor umane n contexte politice8. Domeniul analizei de politic extern se nate aproape simultan cu revoluia behaviorist din tiinele sociale9. Primele demersuri, care au impulsionat dezvoltarea cercetrii n domeniu, aparin universitarilor americani Richard Snyder i James Rosenau. Studiile acestora Decision-making as an approach to the study of international politics, respectiv Pre-theories and theories of foreign policy au ncercat s formuleze primele cadre teoretice de studiu a politicii externe, care s pun bazele unei viitoare teorii generale i s surprind paleta de factori relevani care influeneaz comportamentul actorilor pe arena internaional. Urmtoarei generaii de cercettori le rmnea sarcina de a analiza legtura dintre variabilele descoperite i importana acestora n procesul de producere a politicii externe din diferite categorii de state. Curentul behaviorist cunoate un declin substanial n tiinele sociale odat cu nceputul anilor 70 i apariia unor noi fenomene pe plan internaional precum decolonizarea, nceputul procesului de globalizare sau creterea impactului fenomenului economic asupra politicii internaionale. Contieni de parametrii contextului n care i desfoar activitatea, o nou generaie de cercettori din sfera analizei de politic extern ncearc s conecteze cercetrile lor de principalele preocupri din mediul

erban Filip Cioculescu, Introducere n Teoria Relaiilor Internaionale, Bucureti, Editura Militar, 2007, pp.87-92. Vezi i Robert Dahl, The Behavioral Approach in Political Science: Epitaph for a Monument to a Successful Protest, The American Political Science Review, vol.55, nr.4, 1961, pp.763772. 9 Pentru evoluia domeniului de studiu vezi Steve Smith, Theories of Foreign Policy: An Historical Overview, Review of International Studies, vol.12, nr.1, 1986, pp.13-29; Deborah Gerner, The Evolution of the Study of Foreign Policy, n Laura Neack, Jeanne Hey, Patrick Hane, op.cit., pp.17-33; Valerie Hudson, Christopher Vore, Foreign Policy Analysis Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow, Mershon International Studies Review, vol. 39, nr. 2, 1995, pp.209-238.

internaional. Cele mai importante caracteristici ale perioadei sunt dezvoltarea unor modele conceptuale care s integreze elementele noi aduse de evoluia fenomenelor externe i a unor metodologii de sistematizare a cunotinelor dobndite din studiul politicii externe, precum i aplicarea modelelor la alte spaii socio-politice dect Statele Unite. n acest demers, unii cercettori aleg s se concentreze asupra nivelului statal de analiz pentru a investiga atributele interne ale statului care i modeleaz comportamentul extern i rolul jucat n influenarea procesului decizional de interaciunea dintre grupurile implicate n luarea deciziilor. De asemenea, ali autori au ptruns cu analiza pn la nivelul individual pentru a nelege cum caracteristicile personale ale indivizilor, sistemul de convingeri i valori sau modul individual de percepere, interpretare i procesare a informaiilor despre o situaie internaional, constrng procesul decizional de producere a politicii externe. Principalele modele conceptuale le vom prezenta n continuarea lucrrii de fa, ns nu putem s nu menionm cteva dintre operele fundamentale ale acestei perioade pentru nivelul statal de analiz, precum Essence of decision i Bureaucratic politics and foreign policy, ale politologilor Graham Allison, respectiv Morton Halperin. De asemenea, n dezvoltarea abordrilor psiho-cognitive la nivel individual, un impact fundamental au avut lucrrile universitarului Robert Jervis Perception and misperception in International Politics -, respectiv Victims of Groupthink, a cercettorului Irving Janis. Aceast perioad coincide i cu dezvoltarea sistematic a cercetrilor asupra crizelor internaionale, investigndu-se mai ales impactul caracteristicilor acestora n gestionarea politicii externe. Dintre toi autorii care au ntreprins demersuri importante pentru nelegerea particularitilor deciziei n situaii de criz, considerm important a-i meniona pe Charles F. Hermann, Ole Holsti, Michael Brecher, Alexander George sau Patrick Haney10. Dup sfritul Rzboiului rece, cercetrile din domeniul analizei de politic extern s-au concentrat mai ales asupra verificrii metodologiilor elaborate pn atunci i asupra integrrii factorilor de pe fiecare nivel de analiz pentru a ntri valoarea
10

Printre lucrrile cele mai importante se numr: Charles F. Hermann (ed.), International Crises:Insights form behavioral research, New York, Free Press, 1972; Ole R. Holsti, Crisis, Escalation, War, Montreal, McGill-Queens University Press, 1972; Alexander George (ed.), Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Managament, Boulder, Westview Press, 1991; Michael Brecher, Crisis in World Politics: Theory and Reality, New York, Pergamon, 1993; Patrick Haney, Organizing for Foreign Policy Crises: Presidents, Advisers, and the Management of Decision-Making, Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press, 1997.

explicativ a modelelor conceptuale. n acest sens, se remarc lucrrile, studiile i articolele profesorilor Alex Mintz, Valerie Hudson, Joe Hagan sau Charles i Margaret Hermann11. De asemenea, am putut observa extinderea FPA i n afara spaiului anglosaxon, mai ales n Europa occidental, unde se ntreprind demersuri importante de dezvoltare a cercetrii n domeniu12. Totodat, din anul 2005, cercetarea internaional beneficiaz de o revist academic destinat numai domeniului analizei de politic extern, denumit Foreign Policy Analysis i editat de International Studies Association. Criza Golfului Tonkin a fost studiat mai ales ca parte distinct n lucrrile destinate examinrii de ansamblu a rzboiului din Vietnam. Datorit impactului deosebit pe care l-a avut acest conflict asupra societii americane i a rolului jucat de aceast criz n evoluia ulterioar a rzboiului, am putut observa c majoritatea lucrrilor au ncercat s sublinieze responsabilitatea preedintelui Johnson i a cercului su de consilieri n gestionarea incorect a crizei. Astfel, n diferitele lucrri se accentueaz masiv pe factorii sistemici sau individuali ca parte a explicaiei gestionrii crizei. Mai mult, unii autori merg pn la a culpabiliza cercul decizional de manipulare a Congresului i a opiniei publice americane prin ascundarea informaiilor cu privire la desfurarea evenimentelor, astfel nct s poat utiliza criza ca pretext al escaladrii conflictului13. Dintre studiile care s-au ocupat exclusiv de criza Golfului Tonkin, acestea s-au nscris n special n tentativa de a demonstra, pe baza surselor primare, inexistena incidentului din 4 august. Lucrarea istoricului Edwin Moise Tonkin Gulf and the escalation of the Vietnam War -, fundamentat mai ales pe surse inedite vietnameze, i studiul istoricului Ageniei Naionale de Securitate din Statele Unite, Robert Hanyok 11

Printre cele mai importante lucrri se numr: Alex Mintz, Nehemia Geva (eds.), Decision-making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, Boulder, Lynne Rienner, 1997; Joe Hagan, Margaret Hermann (eds), Leaders, Groups, and Coalitions: Understanding the People and Processes in Foreign Policymaking, Boston, Blackwell, 2001; Valerie Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and contemporary Theory, Lanham, Rowman and Littlefield, 2007. 12 Printre cele mai importante lucrri se numr: Pault Hart, Eric Stern, Bengt Sundelius, Beyond Groupthink: political group dynamics and foreign policy-making, Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press, 1997; Arjen Boin, Pault Hart, Eric Stern, Bengt Sundelius, The Politics of Crisis Management:public leadership under pressure, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2005. 13 Vezi, spre exemplu, H. R. McMaster, Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the lies that led to Vietnam, New York, HarperCollins, 1997; Eric Alterman, When Presidents Lie. A history of official deception and its consequences, New York, Viking Penguin, 2004; Gareth Porter, Perils of dominance: the United States, the Vietnam and the imbalance of power, Berkeley, University of California Press, 2005.

10

Skunks, Bogies, Silent Hounds, and the Flying Fish: The Gulf of Tonkin Mystery, 2-4 August 1964 publicat n urma declasificrilor rapoartelor de intelligence i a mesajelor tehnice i de comand din timpul crizei, sunt cele mai serioase i documentate n a elucida evenimentele de la nceputul lunii august. Aadar, o analiz a crizei dintr-o abordare decizional nu a fost realizat dect n mic parte, n special n lucrrile care au privit dintr-o perspectiv decizional numai rzboiul din Vietnam n ansamblu.

Ipoteze i argumente
Pentru a nelege de ce criza Golfului Tonkin din august 1964 a urmat un anumit curs de aciune am ncercat s surprindem evenimentele dintr-o perspectiv decizional. Altfel spus, n centrul peocuprilor noastre s-a aflat evaluarea procesului decizional de la Washington concretizat n alegerea nalilor oficiali americani a opiunii de retaliere mpotriva Vietnamului de nord, n urma presupusului incident din 4 august. n acest sens, am ncercat s nelegem de ce retalierea masiv a fost alternativa de aciune aleas de diferiii factori de decizie nc nainte de presupusa ocuren a atacului i de ce ea rmas constant n urmtoarele secvene decizionale. Mai departe, am ncercat s nelegem de ce, dup sosirea la Pentagon a primelor date cu privire la confuzia din jurul ntregului eveniment, factorii de decizie au ales s nu modifice alternativa aleas, dei astfel de date necesitau o reevaluare mai amnunit a evenimentelor. Nu n ultimul rnd, am ncercat s aflm dac tiparul procesului decizional a influenat aceste alegeri de politic extern. Totodat, printre obiectivele efortului nostru s-au numrat examinarea modalitii n care au definit situaia principalii actori americani implicai n evenimente, s observm cum a gestionat cercul decizional de la Washington aceast criz, surprinznd n acelai timp i factorii care au influenat comportamentul nalilor oficiali americani. n urma evalurii procesului decizional fundamentat pe analiza surselor primare, concluziile pe care le ofer aceast lucrare sunt ample, ns, se impune o prezentare sumar a lor. Un al doilea atac asupra navelor americane din Golful Tonkin, petrecut la numai dou zile dup un alt incident, a conturat imediat n percepia oficialilor americani imaginea unei provocri deliberate din partea Hanoiului. Chiar dac atacul propriu-zis nc nu avusese loc, problema este perceput drept o situaie de criz care necesita un 11

rspuns rapid i puternic, percepie conform sistemului de convingeri al lui Robert McNamara, secretarul Aprrii, i a poziiilor sale anterioare. De asemenea, pentru Lyndon Johnson, un al doilea atac lsat fr rspuns i putea crea o imagine defavorabil n opinia public american n contextul viitoarelor alegeri. Ceilali membri implicai n procesul decizional nu au fcut dect s adere prompt la aceast opiune datorit faptului c loialitatea fa de grup era puternic i datorit sistemului lor de convingeri, n mare parte asemntor cu al celor doi factori de decizie importani. Mai departe, luarea deciziei prin consens prompt, de altfel, tipar general al proceselor decizionale din administraiile Kennedy i Johnson, ntreptruns cu particularitile situaiilor de criz, sistemul de convingeri al factorilor de decizie i simptomele gndirii de grup, n special examinarea incomplet a alternativelor de aciune i procesarea slab a informaiilor, au determinat ca decizia s fie privit drept ultim, n sensul n care orice reconsiderare mai era posibil doar n circumstane foarte grave. De asemenea, aceti factori au mai determinat ca membrii grupului decizional s fie puin sensibili la informaiile sosite din contextul politic cu privire la confuzia din jurul evenimentului i s neglijeze informaiile primite, astfel nct s verifice calitatea acestora i posibilele erori analitice. Necesitatea gsirii urgente a unei evidene concrete a incidentului a provocat grave erori de percepie i a determinat ca membrii cercului decizional s-i bazeze convingerea pe primul document care a ntrunit standardele minimum acceptate, chiar dac documentul era o eroare de interpretare a analitilor SIGINT.

Metodologie
n demersul nostru de analiz a crizei Golfului Tonkin am fcut apel cu precdere la metode specifice corpului tiinelor istorice i tiinelor politice. n primul rnd, aparatul nostru de analiz a inclus identificarea, clasificarea i compararea surselor primare dup metode calitative i cantitative deoarece considerm c studiul politicii externe, pentru a oferi o nelegere ct mai ampl a fenomenului investigat, are nevoie de o profund analiz de tip istoric ce include examinarea critic a surselor primare. De asemenea, am ncercat situarea evenimentelor din timpul crizei n contextul mai larg al implicrii americane n rzboiul din Vietnam i a identificrii unui tipar general al procesului decizional n timpul administraiei Johnson, plasnd factorii de decizie 12

americani n contextul politic n care au acionat. Totodat, deoarece am avut spre analiz o situaie de criz n care faptele se succed rapid, pentru a oferi o imagine corect a fenomenului discutat am aplicat metoda discursului cronologic astfel nct s se poat observa mai precis succesiunea evenimenial. n al doilea rnd, dup recapitularea faptelor i analiza surselor, am ncercat ncadrarea evenimentului ntr-o construcie teoretic coerent beneficiind de conceptele i teoriile elaborate n cmpul analizei de politic extern. Pentru a nelege criza Golfului Tonkin dintr-o abordare decizional i a oferi o explicaie a deciziei de retaliere mpotriva Vietnamului de nord, luat la Washington pe parcursul zilei de 4 august, am utilizat perspectiva unitii de decizie elaborat de politologii Charles i Margaret Hermann14. Aceast perspectiv ncearc s integreze diferitele modele conceptuale ale analizei de politic extern ilustrnd cum tipul unitii ultime de decizie i natura procesului decizional influeneaz alegerea de politic extern. Autorii susin c, din punct de vedere analitic, ptrunderea n interiorul cutiei negre a statului necesit identificarea actorilor care produc politica extern, pornind de la premisa c toate influenele interne sau internaionale sunt canalizate prin structura politic a guvernului care identific, decide i implementeaz politica extern. Astfel, autorii susin c o modalitate eficient de a construi un tipar de analiz care s cuprind toate aceste entiti este concentrarea analizei asupra acelor actori ce se afl n vrful lanului decizional, numite uniti de decizie, i care posed abilitatea de a aloca resurse n numele societii i a lua decizii ultime. Obiectivul central al perspectivei este s identifice influena unitilor de decizie asupra rezultatului procesului de producere a politicii externe. n acest sens, misiunea analistului este de a surpinde cum anume tipurile de uniti decizionale ultime identificate influeneaz modul n care sunt percepute problemele de politic extern, n care sunt selectate alternativele de aciune i n care sunt luate deciziile i implementate pe arena internaional. Din punct de vedere metodologic, am mprit evenimentele din ziua de 4 august de la Washington n mai multe secvene decizionale pentru a urmri cum a fost
14

Vezi, mai ales, Charles Hermann, Margaret Hermann, Who Makes Foreign Policy and How: An Empirical Inquiry, International Studies Quaterly, vol.33, nr.4, 1989, pp.361-387; Margaret Hermann, How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A theoretical framework, International Studies Review, vol.3, nr.2, 2001, pp.47-81.

13

identificat problema de politic extern, sesizat prilejul de luare a deciziei i format unitatea ultim de decizie. De asemenea, am urmrit cum a fost luat decizia, dac dinamica unitii de decizie a jucat un rol n modalitatea de selectare a alternativei de aciune i de ce fost aleas opiunea de retaliere n detrimentul altora, n acelai timp investignd condiiile i variabilele care au influenat desfuarea procesului decizional pe cele trei mari niveluri de analiz a politicii externe: individual, statal i sistemic15. Pentru nelegerea tuturor acestor elemente am utilizat conceptele i teoriile din domeniul analizei de politic extern aplicabile unitii de decizie identificate, urmrind n acelai timp i dac valoarea lor explicativ este confirmat de faptele oficialilor americani reflectate de sursele primare analizate.

Sursele
Efortul nostru de analiz s-a fundamentat cu precdere pe surse primare, mai precis, pe documente oficiale telegrame diplomatice, memorandumuri, transcripturi ale unor conversaii, declaraii oficiale i intervenii n spaiul public ale factorilor de decizie i pe raporte de intelligence i mesaje tehnice sau de comand emise n timpul crizei, interviuri orale, memorandumuri i cronologii oficiale, care au fost clasificate pn la jumtatea deceniului trecut. Majoritatea documentelor menionate au fost publicate n colecii precum Foreign Relations of the United States. Diplomatic Papers sau Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States. Documentele declasificate amintite au fost n ntregime digitalizate i publicate pe site-ul oficial al Ageniei Naionale de Securitate (NSA). De asemenea, unele documente au mai putut fi accesate datorit digitalizrii lor la Vietnam Virtual Archive i Lyndon Baines Johnson Library. Nu n ultimul rnd, n

15

Pentru o discuie asupra problemei nivelurilor de analiz n relaiile internaionale vezi Pentru diferite definiii a nivelurilor de analiz i o problematizare a conceptului vezi J. David Singer, The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations, World Politics, vol. 14, nr.1, 1961, pp.77-92; William Moul, The Level of Analysis Problem Revisited, Canadian Journal of Political Science, vol. 6, nr. 3, 1973, pp.494-513; Barry Buzan, The Levels of Analysis Problem in International Relations Reconsidered n Steve Smith, Ken Booth, International Relations Theory Today, Cambridge, Polity Press, 2004, pp.198217. Nivelurile de analiz pe care am ales s le utilizm n lucrarea de fa sunt cele mai des ntlnite n lucrrile din literatura de specialitate. Vezi Jospeh Nye, Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and Histoy, New York, Longman, 2007, pp.33-35 i Charles Kegley, World Politics.., pp.15-17.

14

aceast categorie se adaug volumul de documente Hunt, Michael (ed.), A Vietnam war reader, 2010. Cu privire la sursele secundare am consultat cu precdere lucrri, studii i articole din spaiul anglo-saxon. Pe lng cele deja amintite, trebuiesc ns menionate alte cteva lucrri importante: pentru abordrile teoretice de analiz a politicii externe Laura Neack, Jeanne Hey, Patrick Haney, Foreign policy analysis: continuity and change in its second generation, 1995, Alex Mintz, Understanding foreign policy decision-making, 2010, Laura Neack, The new foreign policy: power seeking in a globalized era, 2008, Charles Kegley, World Politics: Trend and Transformation, 12th ed., 2008, Mark Webber, Michael Smith, Foreign policy in a transformed world, 2002; pentru procesul decizional n politica extern a Statelor Unite dup 1945 Richard Snyder, Edgar Furniss, American foreign policy: formulation, principles, and programs, 1961, Charles Kegley, Eugene Wittkopf, James Scott, American foreign policy: pattern and process, 6th ed., 2003; pentru rzboiul din Vietnam i criza Golfului Tonkin Andrew Preston, The war council. McGeorge Bundy, the NSC, and Vietnam, 2006, Leslie Gelb, Richard Betts, The irony of Vietnam: the system worked, 1979, George Herring, LBJ and Vietnam: a different kind of war, 1994, Bryan VanDeMark, Into the quagmire: Lyndon Johnson and the escalation of the Vietnam War, 1995, Mark Moyar, Triumph Forsaken. The Vietnam War, 1954-1965, 2006. De asemenea, am consultat numeroase studii i articole din importante reviste academice, printre care International Studies Review, International Studies Quaterly, International Security, International Affairs, Foreign Policy Analysis, Diplomatic History, MHQ: The Quaterly Journal of Military History, World Politics, American Political Science Review, Political Science Quaterly, Political Psychology, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Presidential Studies Quaterly.

15

BIBLIOGRAFIE

I. Surse primare
I. A. Colecii de documente Foreign Relations of the United States. Diplomatic Papers, 1961-1963, vol. I: Vietnam, 1961, Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1988 Foreign Relations of the United States. Diplomatic Papers, 1961-1963, Vol.IV: Vietnam, August-December 1963, Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1991 Foreign Relations of the United States. Diplomatic Papers, 1964-1968, vol.I: Vietnam, 1964, Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1992 Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: Lyndon B. Johnson, 196364, Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1965 I. B. Documente publicate National Security Agency, Gulf of Tonkin Index - 11/30/2005 and 05/30/2006, Oral History Interviews, accesibil online la adresa http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/declass/gulf_of_tonkin/oral_history.shtml National Security Agency, Gulf of Tonkin Index - 11/30/2005 and 05/30/2006, Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) Reports (R) and Translations (T) Mar 64 - Oct 64, http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/declass/gulf_of_tonkin/sigint_reports/index.shtml National Security Agency, Gulf of Tonkin Index - 11/30/2005 and 05/30/2006, Related Command and Technical Messages from 02 Aug 64 to 26 Aug 64, accesibil la http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/declass/gulf_of_tonkin/command_msgs_1.shtml National Security Agency, Gulf of Tonkin Index - 11/30/2005 and 05/30/2006, Chronologies of Events, accesibil online la adresa http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/declass/gulf_of_tonkin/chronologies.shtml National Security Archive, LBJ on the Gulf of Tonkin Incident, source: John Prados, The White House Tapes, New York, The New Press, 2003, accesibil online la adresa http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB132/tapes.htm. Lyndon Baines Johnson Library, Lyndon B. Johnson's Daily Diary Collection, Tuesday, August 4, 1964, accesibil online la adresa http://www.lbjlibrary.org/assets/lbj_tools/daily_diary/pdf/1964/19640804.pdf The Vietnam Virtual Archive, Douglas Pike Collection: Unit 01 - Assessment and Strategy, Folder 17, Box 03; Douglas Pike Collection: Unit 13 - The Early History of 16

Vietnam, Folder 06, Box 02; Folder 09, Box 04; Folder 08, Box 03; Folder 09, Box 04; Folder 10, Box 01; Folder 11, Box 04, accesibile online la adresa http://www.vietnam.ttu.edu/virtualarchive/ Hunt, Michael (ed.), A Vietnam War Reader. A documentary history from American and Vietnamese perspectives, Chapel Hill, The Univeristy of North Carolina Press, 2010

II. Surse secundare

II. A. Lucrri speciale A. 1. Monografii, volume de autor ALLISON, Graham; ZELIKOW, Philip, Esena deciziei: o explicaie a crizei rachetelor din Cuba, trad. de Mihaela Rileanu, Bucureti, Editura Polirom, 2010 BROWN, Cody, The National Security Council. A legal history of the presidents most powerful advisers, Center for the study of the presidency, Washington D.C., 2008 BURKE, John, The National Security Adviser and Staff. Transitional Challenges, The White House Transition Project Reports, 2009 CIOCULESCU, erban Filip (coord.); MOTOC, Iulia (coord.), Manual de analiz a politicii externe, Bucureti, Editura Polirom, 2010 DALLECK, Robert, Lyndon B. Johnson: portrait of a president, New York, Oxford University Press, 2004 HALPERIN, Morton, Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy, Washington, Brookins Institution, 1974 HERRING, George, LBJ and Vietnam : a different kind of war, Austin, The University of Texas Press, 1994 HILL, Christopher, The changing politics of foreign policy, Basingstoke, Palgrave Mcmillan, 2003 JANIS, Irving, Groupthink. Psychological studies of policy decisions and fiascoes, 2nd ed., Boston, Houghton Millfin, 1983 JERVIS, Robert, Perception and misperception in International Politics, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1976 KEGLEY, Charles; WITTKOPF, Eugene; SCOTT, James M., American foreign policy: pattern and process, 6th ed., Belmont, Wadsworth, 2003 MINTZ, Alex; DeROUEN, Karl, Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2010 MOISE, Edwin, Tonkin Gulf and the Escalation of the Vietnam War, Chapel Hill, University of North Carolina Press, 1996 NEACK, Laura; HEY, Jeanne; HANEY, Patrick (eds.), Foreign policy analysis: continuity and change in its second generation, Englewood Cliffs, Prentice Hall, 1995 17

NEACK, Laura, The new foreign policy: power seeking in a globalized era, 2nd ed., New York, Rowman & Littlefield, 2008 NEUSTADT, Richard, Presidential power: the politics of leadership, New York, John Wiley & Sons, 1960 PRESTON, Andrew, The War Council. McGeorge Bundy, the NSC, and Vietnam, Cambridge MA, Harvard University Press, 2006 SNYDER, Richard; FURNISS, Edgar, American foreign policy: formulation, principles, and progams, New York, Rinehart and Winston, 1961 VAN DeMARK, Bryan, Into the Quagmire. Lyndon Johnson and the Escalation of the Vietnam War, New York, Oxford University Press, 1995 WEBBER, Mark; SMITH, Michael, Foreign policy in a transformed world, Harlow, Pearson, 2002 A. 2. Studii i articole ALLISON, Graham, Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis, The American Political Science Review, vol.63, nr.3, 1969, pp.689-718 ALLISON, Graham; HALPERIN, Morton, Bureaucratic Politics: A paradigm and some policy implication, World Politics, vol.24, 1972, pp.40-79 BARRETT, David,, Doing Tuesday Lunch at Lyndon Johnsons White House: New Archival Evidence on Vietnam Decisionmaking, PS: Political Science and and Politics, vol.24, nr.4, 1991, pp.676-679 BEASLEY, Ryan; KAARBO, Juliet; HERMANN, Charles; HERMANN, Margaret, People and processes in Foreign Policymaking: Insights From Comparative Case Studies, International Studies Review, vol.3, nr.2, 2001, pp.217-250 BEST, James, Who Talked to the President When? A Study of Lyndon B. Johnson, Political Science Quaterly, vol.103, nr.3, 1988, pp.531-545 BEST, Richard A., The National Security Council: An organizational assessment, Congressional Research Service, 2010 BOCK, Joseph; CLARKE, Duncan, The National Security Assistant and the White House Staff: National Security Policy Decisionmaking and Domestic Political Considerations, 1947-1984, Presidential Studies Quaterly, vol.16, nr.2, 1986 BRECHER, Michael; JAMES, Patrick, Patterns of Crisis Management, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol.32, nr., 1988, pp.426-456 BRECHER, Michael, State Behaviour in International Crisis: A Model, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol.23, nr.3, 1979, pp.446-480 BRECHER, Michael; STEINBERG Blema; STEIN, Janice, A framework for research on Foreign Policy Behaviour, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol.13, nr.1, 1969, pp.75-101 BUENO DE MESQUITA, Bruce, Domestic Politics and International Relations, International Studies Quaterly, vol.46, nr.1, 2002, pp.1-9 BURKE, John P; GREENSTEIN, Fred, Presidential Personality and National Security Leadership: A Comparative Analysis of Vietnam Decision-Making, International Political Science Review, vol. 10, nr.1, 1989, pp.73-92

18

CARLSNAES, Walter, Foreign Policy, n W. Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, Beth Simmons (eds.), Handbook of International Relations, Londra, Sage, 2002, pp.331-350 DAHL, Robert, The Behavioral Approach in Political Science: Epitaph for a Monument to a Successful Protest, The American Political Science Review, vol.55, nr.4, 1961, pp.763-772 DeROUEN, Karl; SPRECHER Christopher, Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 48, nr.1, 2004, pp.56-68 DICKINSON, Matthew, Neustadt, New Institutionalism, and Presidential Decision-Making: A theory and test, Presidential Studies Quaterly, vol.35, nr.2, 2005, pp.259-288 DREA, Edward J., Received information indicating attack, MHQ: The Quaterly Journal of Military History, vol.16, nr.4, 2004, pp.74-83 DYSON, Stephen; PRESTON, Thomas, Individual Characteristics of Political Leaders and the Use of Analogy in Foreign Policy Decision Making, Political Psychology, vol.27, nr.2, 2006, pp.265-288 EGAN, Tara Marie, Vietnam, The Johnson Administration and the role of Domestic Public Opinion, 49th Parallel, vol.21, 2007, pp.1-24 FEARON, James, Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy, and Theories of International Relations, Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 1, 1998, pp.289-313 FLANAGAN, Stephen, Managing Intelligence Community, International Security, vol.10, nr.1, 1985, pp.58-95 GARRISON, Jean, Foreign Policymaking and Group Dynamics: Where weve been and were were going, International Studies Review, vol.5, nr.2, 2003, pp.177-183 GATES, Robert M., CIA and American Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, vol.66, nr. 2, 1987, pp.215-230 GEORGE, Alexander; STERN, Eric, Harnessing Conflict in Foreign Policy Making: From Devils to Multiple Advocacy, Presidential Studies Quaterly, vol.33, nr.4, 2002, pp.484-508 GEORGE, Alexander, The Case for Multiple Advocacy in Making Foreign Policy, The American Political Science Review, vol. 66, nr.3, 1972, pp.751-785 GEORGE, Alexander, The Operational Code: A Neglected Approach to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision-Making, International Studies Quaterly, vol.13, nr.2, 1969, pp.190-222 HAGAN, Joe D., Does Decision Making Matter? Systematic Assumptions vs. Historical Reality in International Relations Theory, International Studies Review, vol.3, nr.2, 2001, pp.5-46 HANYOK, Robert J., Skunks, Bogies, Silent Hounds, and the Flying Fish: The Gulf of Tonkin Mistery, 2-4 August 1964, n Idem Spartans in Drakness: American SIGINT and the Indochina War, 1945-1975, pp.175-231, United States Cryptologic History, series VI, The NSA period: 1952-present, vol.7, Center for Cryptologic History, National Security Agency, 2002 HART, Paul t, Irving L. Janis' Victims of Groupthink, Political Psychology, vol. 12, nr. 2, 1991, pp. 247-278 HENRY II, John B; ESPINOSA, William, The Tragedy of Dean Rusk, Foreign Policy, nr.8, 1972, pp. 166-189

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HEREK, Gregory; JANIS, Irving; HUTH, Paul, Decision-Making during International Crises: Is Quality of Process related to Outcome?, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol.31, nr.2, 1987, pp.203-226 HERMANN, Charles F., International Crisis as a Situational Variable, n James Rosenau, International Politics and Foreign Policy, New York, Free Press, 1969, pp.409421 HERMANN, Charles F., Some Consequences of Crisis which Limit the Viability of Organizations, Administrative Science Quaterly, vol.8, nr.1, 1963, pp.61-82 HERMANN, Charles; GROSS STEIN, Janice; SUNDELIUS, Bengt; WALKER, Stephen, Resolve, Accept or Avoid: Effects of Group Conflict on Foreign Policy Decisions, International Studies Review, vol.3, nr.2, 2001, pp.133-168 HERMANN, Margaret, Explaining Foreign Policy Behaviour Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders, International Studies Quaterly, vol.24, nr.1, 1980, pp.7-46 HERMANN, Margaret, How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A theoretical framework, International Studies Review, vol.3, nr.2, 2001, pp.47-81 HERMANN, Margaret; HAGAN, Joe, International Decision Making: leadership matters, Foreign Policy, nr.110, 1998, pp. 124-137 HERMANN, Margaret; HERMANN, Charles F., Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How: An Empirical Inquiry, International Studies Quaterly, vol.33, nr.4, 1989, pp. 361-387 HERMANN, Margaret; PRESTON, Thomas, Presidents, Advisers and Foreign Policy: The Effect of Leadership Style on Executive Arrangemets, Political Psychology, vol.15, nr.1, 1994, pp.75-96 HILL, Christopher, What is to be done? Foreign policy as a sit for political action, International Affairs, vol.79, nr.2, 2003, pp.233-255 HOLSTI, Kalevi, National Role Conceptions in the Study of Foreign Policy, International Studies Quarterly, vol. 14, nr. 3, 1970, pp. 233-309 HOLSTI, Ole R., Cognitive Approaches to Decision-Making, n Idem, Making American Foreign Policy, New York, Routledge, 2006, pp.33-55 HOLSTI, Ole R., Crisis Decision Making, n Paul Viotti, Mark Kauppi, International Relations Theory: Realism, Pluralism, Globalism and Beyond, 3rd ed., New York, Prentice Hall, 1998, pp.269-279 HOLSTI, Ole R., The Belief System and National Images: A Case Study, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 6, nr.3, 1962, pp.244-252 HOLSTI, Ole R.; ROSENAU, James, The Domestic and Foreign Policy Beliefs of American Leaders, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol.32, nr.2, 1988, pp.248-294 HOLSTI, Ole R.; ROSENAU, James, The Meaning of Vietnam: Belief Systems of American Leaders, International Journal, vol.32, nr.3, 1977, pp.452-477. HUDSON, Valerie, Foreign Policy Analysis: Actor-Specific Theory and the Ground of International Relations, Foreign Policy Analysis, vol.1, nr.1, pp.1-30. HUDSON, Valerie; VORE, Christopher, Foreign Policy Analysis Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow, Mershon International Studies Review, vol. 39, nr. 2, 1995, pp.209-238 JANIS, Irving, Groupthink, Psychology Today, vol.5, nr.6, 1971, pp. 43-44, 46, 74-76 20

JERVIS, Robert, Hypotheses on Misperception, World Politics, vol.20, nr.3, 1968, pp.454-479 JERVIS, Robert, Understanding Beliefs, Political Psychology, vol.27, nr.5, 2006, pp.641-663 KEGLEY, Charles; WITTKOPF Eugene, Beyond consensus: The domestic context of American foreign policy, n International Journal, vol. 38, nr.1, 1982-1983 Iarna, pp.77-106 KEOHANE, Robert, International Institutions: Two Approaches, International Studies Quaterly, vol.32, nr.4, 1988, pp.379-396 KRASNER, Stephen, Are bureaucracies important? (Or Allison wonderland), Foreign Policy, nr.7, 1972, pp.159-179 LARSON, Deborah, The Role of Belief Systems and Schemas in Foreign Policy Decision-Making, Political Psychology, vol.15, nr.1, pp.17-33 LAUREN, Paul Gordon, Crisis Management: History and Theory in International Conflict, The International History Review, vol.1, nr.4, 1979, pp.542-556 LEVY, Jack, An Introduction to Prospect Theory, Political Psychology, vol. 13, nr.2, 1992, pp.171-186 LEVY, Jack, Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations, International Studies Quaterly, vol.4, nr.1, 1997, pp.87-112 LINDSAY, James, Congress and Foreign Policy: Why the Hill Maters, Political Science Quaterly, vol.107, nr.4, 1992-1993 Iarna, p.607-628 LINDSAY, James, Congress, Foreign Policy and the New Institutionalism, International Studies Quaterly, vol.38, nr.2, 1994, pp.281-304 LINDSAY, James; RIPLEY Randall, How Congress influences foreign and defense policy, Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, vol. 47, no.6, 1994, pp.7-32 LOGEVALL, Fredrik, Lyndon Johnson and Vietnam, Presidential Studies Quaterly, vol.34, nr.1, 2004, pp.100-112 MABEE, Bryan, Historical Institutionalism and Foreign Policy Analysis: The Origins of the National Security Council Revisited, Foreign Policy Analysis, vol.7, 2011, pp.27-44 MAOZ, Zeev, Crisis Initiation: A Theoretical Explanation of a Neglected Topic in International Crisis Theory, Review of International Studies, vol.8, nr.4, 1982, pp.215-232 MARTEL, Erich, Gulf of Tonkin, n OAH Magazine of History, vol.7, nr.2, 1992, pp.36-39 McCLELLAND, Charles, The Acute International Crisis, World Politics, vol.14, nr.1, 1961, pp.182-204 McCORMICK, James, International Crisis: A note on definition, The Western Political Quaterly, vol.31, nr.3, 1978, pp.352-358 MINTZ, Alex, How Do Leaders Make Decisions? A poliheuristic perspective, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 48, nr.1, 2004, pp. 3-13 MITCHELL, David, Does Context Matter? Advisory Systems and the Management of the Foreign Policy Decision-Making Process, Presidential Studies Quaterly, vol.40, nr.4, 2010, pp.632-659

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NORTH, Robert, Decision-Making in Crisis: An Introduction, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol.6, nr.3, 1962, pp.197-203 ONEAL, John, The Rationality of Decision Making during International Crises, Polity, vol.20, nr.4, 1988, pp.598-662 ORNSTEIN, Norman; MANN, Thomas E., When Congress Checks Out, Foreign Affairs, vol. 85, nr.6, 2006, pp.67-82 PATERSON, Pat, The truth about Tonkin, Naval History Magazine, vol.22, nr.1, 2008, pp.52-60 PATERSON, Paul, The Presidents dominance in foreign policy making, Political Science Quaterly, vol.109, nr.2, 1994, pp.215-234 PRESTON, Andrew, The Little State Department: McGeorge Bundy and the National Security Staff, 1961-65, Presidential Studies Quaterly, vol. 31, nr.4, 2001, pp.635-659 PRINS, Brandon; MARSHALL Bryan, Congressional support of the President: A comparison of foreign, defense, and domestic policy decision making during and after the Cold War, Presidential Studies Quaterly, vol.31, nr.4 2001, pp.660-679 RIPLEY, Brian, Psychology, Foreign Policy, and International Relations Theory, Political Psychology, vol.14, nr.3, 1993, pp.403-416 ROBERTS, Adam, The Fog of Crisis: The 1964 Tonkin Gulf Incidents, The World Today, vol.26, nr.5, 1970, pp.209-217 ROSATI, Jerel, The Power of Human Cognition in the Study of World Politics, International Studies Review, vol.2, nr.3, 2000, pp.45-75 ROSEANU, James, A Pre-Theory Revisited: World Politics in an Era of Cascading Interdependence, International Studies Quaterly, vol. 28, nr. 3, 1984, pp.245305 ROSENAU, James, Comparative Foreign Policy: Fad, Fantasy, or Field?, International Studies Quaterly, vol.12, nr.3, 1968, pp.296-329 ROSENAU, James, Pre-theories and theories of foreign policy, n Idem, The Study of World Politics, vol. I, New York, Routledge, 2006, pp.171-200 ROSENAU, James, The Premises and Promises of Decision-Making Analysis, n James C. Charlesworth, Contemporary Political Analysis, New York, Free Press, 1967, pp. 189-211 SCHRAUFNAGEL, Scot; SHELLMAN, Stephen, The two presidencies, 198498: A replication and extension, Presidential Studies Quaterly, vol.31, nr. 4, 2001, pp.699-707 SMITH, Steve, Theories of Foreign Policy: An Historical Overview, Review of International Studies, vol.12, nr.1, 1986, pp.13-29 SNYDER, Richard; BRUCK H. W.; SAPIN. Burton, The Decision-Making Approach to the Study of International Politics, n James Rosenau (ed.), International politics and foreign policy: a reader in research and theory, New Yok, Free Press, 1969, pp.199-206 SOFAER, Abraham, Presidential power and national security, Presidential Studies Quaterly, vol.37, nr.1, 2007, pp.101-123 SPROUT, Harold; SPROUT, Margaret, Environmental Factors in the Study of International Politics, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol.1, nr.4, 1957, pp.309-328

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STERN, Eric; SUNDELIUS, Bengt, Crisis Management Europe: An integrated regional research and training program, International Studies Perspectives, vol.3 nr.1, 2002, pp.71-88 STERN, Eric, Crisis Studies and Foreign Policy Analysis: Insights, Synergies, and Challenges, International Studies Review, vol.5, nr.2, 2003, pp.183-191 TOWER, John G., Congress versus the President: The formulation and implementation of American foreign policy, Foreign Affairs, vol. 60, nr.2, 1981 Iarna, pp.229-246 YE, Min, Poliheuristic Theory, Bargaining, and Crisis Decision Making, Foreign Policy Analysis, vol.3, nr.4, 2007, pp.317-344 WALTZ, Kenneth N, International Politics is not Foreign Policy, Security Studies, vol. 6, nr.1, pp.54-57 WELCH, David, The Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics Paradigms: Retrospect and Prospect, International Security, vol.17, nr.2, 1992, pp.112146 WITTKOPF, Eugene; McCORMICK, James, Congress, the President, and the End of the Cold War: Has anything changed?, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol.42, nr.4, 1998, pp.440-466. ZAKARIA, Fareed, Realism and Domestic Politics, International Security, vol.17, nr.1, 1992, pp.177-198

II. B. Lucrri generale

B. 1. Monografii, volume de autor ALTERMAN, Eric, When Presidents Lie. A history of official deception and its consequences, New York, Viking Penguin, 2004 DUROSELLE, Jean-Baptiste, Istoria Relaiilor Internaionale, 1919-1947, vol.I, trad. de Anca Airinei, Bucureti, Editura tiinelor Sociale i Politice, 2006 DUROSELLE, Jean-Baptiste; KASPI, Andre, Istoria Relaiilor Internaionale, 1948-pn n zilele noastre, vol.II, trad. de Anca Airinei, Bucureti, Editura tiinelor Sociale i Politice, 2006 GELB Leslie; BETTS, Richard, The Irony of Vietnam: The System Worked, Washington, Brookings Institution Press, 1979 HESS, Garry R., Presidential Decision for War. Korea, Vietnam, the Persian Gulf, and Iraq, 2nd. ed., Baltimore, The John Hopkins University Press, 2009 KARNOW, Stanley, Vietnam. A history, New York, Penguin Books, 1984 KEGLEY, Charles, World Politics: Trend and Transformation, 12th ed., Belmont, Wadsworth, 2008 KISSINGER, Henry, Diplomaia, Bucureti, Editura All, 2003

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MORGENTHAU, Hans, Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace, 6th ed., New York, McGraw Hill, 1985 MOYAR, Mark, Triumph Forsaken. The Vietnam War, 1954-1965, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2006 NYE, Joseph, Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and Histoy, New York, Longman, 2007 PORTER, Gareth, Perils of dominance: the United States, the Vietnam and the imbalance of power, Berkeley, University of California Press, 2005 RUSSETT, Bruce; STARR, Harvey; KINSELLA, David, World Politics: The Menu for Choice, 9th ed., Boston, Wadsworth, 2010 SCHMIDT, Donald E., The Folly of War. American Foreign Policy, 1898-2005, New York, Algora Publishing, 2005 WALTZ, Kenneth N., Man, the State, and War. A Theoretical Analysis, New York, Columbia University Press, 2001 WALTZ, Kenneth N., Theory of International Politics, Reading MA, Addison Wesley, 1979 WESTHEIDER, James E., The Vietnam War, Westport, Greenwood Press, 2007 WOODS, Randall Bennett, J. William Fulbright, Vietnam, and the Search for a Cold War Foreign Policy, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1998

B. 2. Studii i articole GADDIS, John Lewis, International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War, International Security, vol.17, nr.3, 1992-1993, Iarna, pp.5-58 HOLSTI, Ole R., Theories of International Relations, n Idem, Making American Foreign Policy, New York, Routledge, 2006, pp.313-345 MOUL, William, The Level of Analysis Problem Revisited, Canadian Journal of Political Science, vol. 6, nr. 3, 1973, pp.494-513 ROSE, Gideon, Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy, World Politics, vol.51, nr.1, 1998, pp.144-172 SINGER, J. David, International Conflict: Three Levels of Analysis, World Politics, vol.12, nr. 3, 1960, pp. 453-461 SINGER, David J., The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations, World Politics, vol. 14, nr.1, 1961, pp.77-92 SNYDER, Jack, One World, Rival Theories, Foreign Policy, nr.145, pp.52-62 WALT, Stephen, International Relations: One World, Many Theories, Foreign Policy, nr.110, 1998, pp.29-46 WALT, Stephen, The relationship between theory and policy in International Relations, Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 8, 2005, pp. 23-48

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II. C. Instrumente de lucru BERRIDGE, G.R.; JAMES, Alan, A dictionary of diplomacy, Basingstoke, Palgrave, 2001 GRIFFITHS, Martin, Fifty key thinkers in international relations, 2nd ed., New York, Routledge, 2009 GRIFFITHS, Martin; OCALLAGHAN, Terry, International relations: the key concepts, New York, Routledge, 2002 HOSCH, William (ed.), Korean War and the Vietnam War: people, power, politics, New York, Britannica Educational Publishing, 2010 VAISSE, Maurice (coord.), Dicionar de relaii internaionale: secolul XX, trad. de Marius Roman, Bucureti, Polirom, 2008 VAN EVERA, Stephen, Guide to methods for students of political science, Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1997

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