Universitatea Lucian Blaga din Sibiu

Facultatea de Inginerie

PROIECT
Curs 4: Managementul cercetrii experimentale

Prof.univ.dr.ing.:
Carmen SIMION

Doctorand:
Diana MUNTEAN

Exerciiul 4
Valorile funciei obiectiv obinute n urma experimentului sunt nregistrate n tabelul de mai jos:
Nr. de
repetari
1

Valori

Valori

1000

Nr. de
repetari
4

1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4

Valori

1010

Nr. de
repetari
9

1015
1005
1005
995
1000
1005
1020
1000
1000
1010
1015
1000
1000
1015
1005
1015
1020
1005
1015

5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8

Valori

1020

Nr. de
repetari
13

995
995
1010
1000
1005
1010
1000
995
1010
1000
1015
1000
1005
1000
1000
1000
1010
1000
1005

9
9
9
9
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
12

Valori

1005

Nr. de
repetari
17

1000
1000
1005
1010
1000
1005
1015
1005
1010
990
990
1015
1010
1005
1010
1005
995
1000
995

13
13
13
13
14
14
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
16
16

1000
1000
985
1010
990
1010
990
990
1005
995
995
995
995
990
1000
985
1000
995
1010

17
17
17
17
18
18
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20

1005
1005
1000
1000
1005
990
1015
1000
1005
1005
985
1000
1020
995
995
1015
1005
1020
1005

1010

S se:
a) Elimine rezultatele afectate de erori grosolane (valorile aberante)

Diagrama Boxplot ofer informaii privind tendina central i forma

distribuiei studiate.
Q1- este quartila inferioara
Limita inferioara= Q1-1.5(Q3-Q1)= 1000
Q2- este quartila superioara
Limita superioara= Q3+1.5(Q3-Q1)= 1010
Xmin= 990
Xmax=1020
IQR- interval interquartilic
IQR= Q3-Q1= 1010-1000= 10
Valori aberante mai mari = Q3+1,5*IQR= 1010+1,5*10= 1011.5
Valori aberante mai mici =Q1-1.5*IQR= 1000-1,5*10= 998.5

b) Verifice caracterul aleator (ntmpltor) al rezultatelor.

Runs Test: Valori
Runs test for Valori
Runs above and below K = 1003.2
The observed number of runs = 49
The expected number of runs = 50.98

51 observations above K, 49 below

P-value = 0.691 => Valorile sunt aleatore, intamplatoare. Valorile oscileaza in sus si in jos
in mod rapid ceea ce determina caci procesul nu este stabil si au o tendinta de crestere si
scadere.
Run Chart of Valori
1020

Valori

1010

1000
990

980
1

10

Number of runs about median:

Expected number of runs:
Longest run about median:
Approx P-Value for Clustering:
Approx P-Value for Mixtures:

20

30
49
42.18000
12
0.95236
0.04764

40
50
60
Observation
Number of runs up or down:
Expected number of runs:
Longest run up or down:
Approx P-Value for Trends:
Approx P-Value for Oscillation:

70

80

90

100

64
66.33333
5
0.28826
0.71174

c) Verifice normalitatea repartiiei experimentale (teste statistic, re eaua

de probailitate, histograma, Box Plot)
- Test normalitate Anderson-Darline

Probability Plot of Valori

Normal
99.9

Mean
StDev
N
AD
P-Value

99

Percent

95
90

1003
8.334
100
1.608
<0.005

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
1
0.1

970

980

990

1000
Valori

1010

1020

1030

-Test normalitate Ryan-Joiner

Probability Plot of Valori
Normal
99.9

Mean
StDev
N
RJ
P-Value

99
95

Percent

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
1
0.1

970

980

990

1000
Valori

1010

1020

-Test normalitate Kolmogorov-Smirnov

1030

1003
8.334
100
0.999
>0.100

Probability Plot of Valori

Normal
99.9

Mean
StDev
N
KS
P-Value

99

Percent

95
90

1003
8.334
100
0.027
>0.150

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
1
0.1

970

980

990

1000
Valori

1010

1020

1030

Se alege distributia corecta, distributia cu punctele care urmaresc o

linie dreapta si cu P avand valoarea cea mai mare.
Distributia cea mai corecta este normalitate Kolmogorov-Smirnov.
Histograma
n acest caz, prin intermediul histogramei se poate vedea n ce
masur sistemul supus cercetrii produce rezultate bune i pn n ce
punct exist deviaii n privina limitelor fixate n cerine. n acest sens,
studiul distribuiei datelor evideniaz elementele asupra crora trebuie
intervenit pentru mbuntirea rezultatelor.
Determinarea valorilor maxim i minim din irul valorilor variabilei
studiate i a mrimii intervalelor; Trasarea limitelor fiecrui interval pe
abscis i a frecvenei datelor acestora pe ordonat;
Pe abcisa se afla frecventa iar pe ordonata dispersia.
Histogramele cu mprtiere mare indic variaii mari ale datelor iar
cele n care rezultatele sunt concentrate n jurul mediei indic variaii slabe,
ceea ce face posibil stpnirea sistemului care a generat rezultatele, ceea
ce se si vede in histograma noastra. Histogramele care reflect sisteme
stabile sunt mai ridicate n centru i coboar simetric spre ambele laturi,
ceea ce la noi nu se intampla.

Histogram of Valori
25

Frequency

20

15

10

985

990

995

1000
1005
Valori

1010

1015

1020

d) Determine principalii indicatori statistici

e) Descriptive Statistics
f)

g)

N N*
Mean
StDev Median Minimum Maximum
h) 100
0 1003.2 8.33394
1005
985
1020
i)
j)
k) Goodness of Fit Test
l)
m) Distribution
AD
P LRT P
n) Normal
1.608 <0.005
o) Lognormal
1.600 <0.005
p) 3-Parameter Lognormal
1.613
* 0.992
q) Exponential
45.140 <0.003
r) 2-Parameter Exponential 13.580 <0.010 0.000
s) Weibull
2.692 <0.010
t) 3-Parameter Weibull
1.601 <0.005 0.000
u) Smallest Extreme Value
2.742 <0.010
v) Largest Extreme Value
2.278 <0.010
w) Gamma
1.616 <0.005
x) 3-Parameter Gamma
1.588
* 1.000
y) Logistic
1.689 <0.005
z) Loglogistic
1.682 <0.005
aa) 3-Parameter Loglogistic
1.682
* 0.942
ab)
ac)
ad) ML Estimates of Distribution Parameters

Skewness Kurtosis
0.0438690

-0.366590

ae)
af) Distribution
ag) Normal*
ah) Lognormal*
ai) 3-Parameter Lognormal
aj) Exponential
ak) 2-Parameter Exponential
al) Weibull
am) 3-Parameter Weibull
an) Smallest Extreme Value
ao) Largest Extreme Value
ap) Gamma
aq) 3-Parameter Gamma
ar) Logistic
as) Loglogistic
at) 3-Parameter Loglogistic

Location
1003.20000
6.91092
6.90627

Shape

125.53489
3.29414
1007.36620
999.07255
14638.92104
107.45102
1003.10333
6.91084
6.76946

Scale
8.33394
0.00831
0.00830
1003.20000
18.29850
1007.33257
27.56103
8.02557
7.95846
0.06853
0.80484
4.78507
0.00477
0.00549

Threshold
4.64878
984.90150
978.48544

916.70339
132.24467

Skewness (asimetria) 0.0438690

Skewness are valori pozitive, cnd distribuia de frecvene are asimetrie pozitiv (curbele
alungite spre dreapta)
Kurtosis (aplatizarea) -0.366590
Kurtosis < 0 distribuia este mai puin boltit dect cea normal i se numete
platikurtic, avnd un vrf mai aplatizat (turtit) i cozi mai scurte dect la cea normal;
Probability Plot for Valori
99.9

90

90

50

50

10
1
0.1
0.01

Weibull
AD = 2.692
P-Value < 0.010

1
0.1

0.10
1.00
10.00 100.00
Valori - T hreshold

950

975
1000
Valori

1025

Smallest Extreme Value - 95% CI

99.9

99.9

90

90

50

50
Percent

Percent

2-Parameter Exponential
AD = 13.580
P-Value < 0.010

10

3-Parameter Weibull - 95% CI

10
1
0.1

Goodness of Fit Test

Weibull - 95% CI

99.9

Percent

Percent

2-Parameter Exponential - 95% CI

10
1

10
20
Valori - T hreshold

50

0.1

950

975
1000
Valori

1025

3-Parameter Weibull
AD = 1.601
P-Value < 0.005
Smallest Extreme Value
AD = 2.742
P-Value < 0.010

Probability Plot for Valori

99.9

99

99

95

95

80

80

50
20

3-Parameter Loglogistic
AD = 1.682
P-Value = *

0.1Plot for Valori

Probability
1000 1020 1040
840
860
880 900
Valori
Valori
- Threshold
Normal
- 95% CI
Lognormal
- 95% CI

980

99.9

99

99

90

90

Percent

99.9

10
1
0.1

Loglogistic
AD = 1.682
P-Value < 0.005

20
5

50

Normal
AD = 1.608
P-Value < 0.005
Lognormal
AD = 1.600
P-Value < 0.005

50
10

1000
Valori

1020

0.1

1040

980

3-Parameter Lognormal - 95% CI

1000
Valori

1020

1040

99.9

99.9

99

90

90

50

50
10

3-Parameter Lognormal
AD = 1.613
P-Value = *
Exponential
AD = 45.140
P-Value < 0.003

Exponential - 95% CI

Percent

Percent

Goodness of Fit Test

1
980

Goodness of Fit Test

50

0.1

Percent

3-Parameter Loglogistic - 95% CI

99.9

Percent

Percent

Loglogistic - 95% CI

10
1

1
0.1

0.1

980
1000
1020
Valori - Threshold

10

100
Valori

1000

10000

Probability Plot for Valori

Largest Extreme Value - 95% CI

Goodness of Fit Test

Gamma - 95% CI

99.9

99.9

Largest Extreme Value

AD = 2.278
P-Value < 0.010

99
Percent

Percent

99
90
50
10

90

10
1

0.1

1000

1025
Valori

0.1

1050

3-Parameter Gamma - 95% CI

1000
Valori

1020

1040

99
Percent

90
50
10

90
50
10
1

60

80
100
Valori - Threshold

120

0.1
960

990

1020
Valori

3-Parameter Gamma
AD = 1.588
P-Value = *
Logistic
AD = 1.689
P-Value < 0.005

99.9

99

Percent

980

Logistic - 95% CI

99.9

0.1

Gamma
AD = 1.616
P-Value < 0.005

50

1050