UNIVERSITATEA BUCURETI

FACULTATEA DE GEOGRAFIE

TEZ DE DOCTORAT INTERACIUNEA ATMOSFER-MAREUSCAT N ZONA LITORAL A MRII NEGRE REZUMAT

COORDONATOR TIINIFIC: Prof. Univ. Dr. EMIL VESPREMEANU

DOCTORAND: MIRELA MILENA NI

BUCURETI 2008
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CUPRINS Introducere 6 Capitolul 1 Caracteristicile fizico-geografice ale Dobrogei 9 1.1 Descrierea Dobrogei 9 1.1.1. Poziia geografic, limitele, suprafaa i populaia 9 1.1.2. Caracteristici generale 11 1.1.3. Climatele 12 1.2 Descrierea Mrii Negre 16 1.2.1 Geologia i geofizica bazinului Mrii Negre 19 1.2.2 Relieful bazinului Mrii Negre 21 1.2.3 Trsturile oceanografice ale acvatoriului Mrii Negre 22 Capitolul 2 Consideraii teoretice 31 2.1 Cldura specific i cldura latent a apei 31 2.1.1 Proprietile calorice ale apei 32 2.1.2 Implicaii asupra strii vremii i a climei 32 2.2 Interaciunea ntre atmosfer i ocean 34 2

2.2.1 Circulaia activat de vnt 35 2.2.2 Regimul vnturilor de furtun 38 2.2.3 Curenii Rip 38 2.2.4 Circulaia termohalin 39 2.3 Caracteristici climatice ale zonei costiere a Mrii Negre 39 2.3.1 Temperatura aerului 39 2.3.2 Precipitaiile i umiditatea atmosferic 40 2.3.3. Direcia i viteza vntului 40 2.3.4. Presiunea aerului 41 2.3.5. Fenomenele meteorologice 42 2.3.6 Vizibilitatea 42 2.3.7 Fenomenul de nghe al mrii la coast 43 2.4 Valurile 45 2.4.1 Natura fizic a valurilor 46 2.4.2 Principalele tipuri de unde 51

2.4.3 Valuri catastrofice 53 2.4.4 Starea mrii 54 2.4.5 Parametrii elementari ai unei unde 55 2.4.6 Aproximarea statistic 65 2.5. Ciclul de via al unui val 67 2.5.1 Tipuri i caracteristicile valului 68 2.5.2 Creterea valului 68 2.6. Regimul valurilor litorale 74 2.7 Cureni marini 75 2.8 Variabilitatea nivelului mrii la rm 79 Capitolul 3 Unde de tip tsunami n Marea Neagr 81 3.1 Hazarde naturale 81 3.1.1 Inundaiile 81 3.1.2 Erupiile vulcanice 81 3.1.3 Uraganele 82

3.1.4 Seceta 82 3.1.5 Cutremurele 83 3.2. Tsunami 84 3.2.1 Generarea valurilor de tip tsunami 84 3.2.2 Propagarea 89 3.2.3 Divizarea 89 3.2.4 Amplificarea 91 3.2.5 Run-up 91 3.2.6 Inundarea 91 3.3. Diferenele dintre tsunami i valurile de furtun 93 3.4 Istoricul evenimentelor de tip tsunami n Marea Neagr 94 3.5 Cercetri seismologice 96 3.5.1 Caracterizarea surselor seismologice din zona Mrii Negre 96 3.6 Simulri i consecine ale acestora n bazinul vestic al Marii Negre 99 Capitolul 4 Curenii Rip 109

4.1 Micarea apei n zona costier 111 4.1.1. Valurile de vnt 111 4.1.2 Mareele 113 4.1.3 Cureni neuniformi 113 4.2 Curenii Rip 114 4.3 Modele conceptuale de generare a curenilor Rip 116 4.3.1 Modelul 1 117 4.3.2 Modelul 2 121 4.4. Amenajri de protecie a rmului 121 4.4.1 Utilizarea combinat a amenajrilor de protecia rmului 123 4.4.2 Zone actuale cu cureni Rip 130 4.4.3 Aplicarea modelelor conceptuale n zone cu rm drept i zone de golf 133 4.4.4 Identificarea zonelor predispusela curenii Rip 134 4.4.5 Msuri de prevenire a consecinelor curenilor Rip 135 Capitolul 5 Episoade de vreme sever pe litoralul romnesc al Mrii Neagre 138

5.1. Analiza unei furtuni n Marea Neagr 138 5.2. Catastrofa de la Costineti 147 5.3. Inundaii pe litoral 155 Concluzii 173 Bibliografie 177 Anexa I 190 Anexa II 192 Anexa III 200

Recunotina mea se ndreapt ctre domnul profesor universitar doctor Emil Vespremeanu, pentru tot suportul tiinific acordat pe parcursul stagiului de pregtire a doctoratului i pentru generozitatea cu care mi-a mprtit din experiena profesional a domniei sale. Mulumesc ntregii catedre de Meteorologie i Hidrologie din cadrul Universitii Bucureti pentru condiiile foarte bune de desfurare a studiilor doctorale. Mulumesc doamnei Aurora Bell (Stan-Sion) pentru tot sprijinul acordat de-a lungul ntregii mele cariere, dar mai ales pentru ncurajrile venite de la domnia sa n momentele de cumpn ale activitii mele profesionale. Gnduri de recunotin se ndreapt ctre colegii din cadrul Centrului Meteorologic Regional Dobrogea, ctre domnul director Dumitru Sarafu, dar mai ales ctre doamnele Melania Petrescu, Angela Crciun i Marinela Dulam, ale cror recomandri sau ncurajri m-au susinut n toat aceast perioad. Un gnd aparte se ndreapt ctre domnul doctor Vasile Toric, care mi-a deschis calea ctre acest demers i ctre domnioara Maria Tomescu, fr ajutorul creia aceast lucrare nu ar fi putut fi definitivat. Mulumesc familiei mele pentru toat dragostea, nelegerea i rbdarea cu care m-au nconjurat n toat aceast perioad.

Rezumat
n ultimele decenii asistm la o dezvoltare nemaintlnit a transportului maritim, a amenajrii plajelor i a zonelor de recreere, a creterii produciei de petrol i gaze provenite din zona continental a mrilor i oceanelor i, n general, a tuturor activitilor legate de zona costier. Mai mult dect att dezvoltarea comerului la nivel mondial a implicat construcia unui numr mare de porturi i de terminale. Problema principal asociat tuturor acestor activiti este legat de mare i, n principal, de valurile din zona costier. Erele geologice i procesele fizice au creat medii costiere de diferite tipuri. Cele mai importante dintre acestea sunt plajele, estuarele, deltele, barierele de coreli, coastele stncoase sau, n cele mai multe locuri de pe Pmnt, combinaii dintre acestea. Condiiile oceanogafice din apele de coast difer fa de cele din marea liber prin foarte multe aspecte. Zona de coast cuprinde de-o parte i de alta a liniei de coast, o fie subire de pmnt i de ap. Zona de coast este locul n care se ntlnesc aerul, apa i pmntul. Fiecare dintre acestea are o anumit dinamic. Interaciunea lor creaz un mediu extrem de complicat pentru activitile inginereti. Datorit faptului c linia de coast este intersecia dintre aer, ap i pmnt, interaciunile fizice care apar n aceast zon sunt unice, foarte complexe i greu de neles n totalitate. De aceea, o mare parte a sistemului fizic din zona costier este descris prin modele simpliste. Micarile apei, care contribuie la sistemul fizic din zona de plaj sau din zona de coast, includ valurile, mareele, curenii, creterea nivelului mrii datorit furtunilor i tsunami. Valurile de vnt sunt cele care contribuie cel mai mult n acest schimb energetic. Pornind de la ideea c n viitor zona litoralului romnesc al Mrii Negre va avea un potential de dezvoltare exploziv, studierea fenomenelor periculoase la contactul dintre atmosfer, mare i uscat se impune ca o necesitate. Lucrarea i propune s pun n evidena, ntr-o manier original, unele aspecte ale interaciunii atmosfer mare uscat n aceasta zon de frontier.

Contribuia personal const n premiera abordrii unor astfel de fenomene ntr-o lucrare unitar, punndu-se accent att pe mecanismele de declanare ct i pe consecinele pe care aceste tipuri de hazarde la pot produce. Originalitatea abordrii este dat de simularea, pentru prima oar pentru Marea Neagr, a unor unde de tip tsunami, precum i de identificarea i clasificarea zonelor de risc. i n cazul curenilor Rip este pentru prima oar cnd n literatura romn de specialitate apare o descriere detaliat a acestora. nelegerea mecanismelor de formare i contribuia acestora n transportul sedimentelor m-au condus la identificarea zonelor care (dup finalizarea proceselor de nnisipare) ar avea potenial n producerea accidentelor prin nec. Utilizarea produselor radarului Doppler s-a constituit ntr-o abordare neconvenional de strict actualitate, att a unei furtuni, ct i a nelegerii fenomenelor tip flash-flood din zona litoralului Mrii Negre. n toate cele trei studii de caz s-a pus accent pe influena mrii asupra amplitudinii fenomenelor studiate. Lucrarea este structurat pe cinci capitole. Primul capitol conine o descriere sintetic a Dobrogei, punnd accent pe caracterul specific al climatului zonei studiate, precum i o prezentare succint a geologiei, geofizicii, a reliefului i a trsturilor oceanografice ale acvatoriului Mrii Negre. Al doilea capitol cuprinde consideraii teoretice ale interaciunii ocean atmosfer pmnt. Sunt descrise: circulaia activat de vnt, curenii de suprafa i de adncime, precum i caracteristicile climatice ale zonei costiere a Mrii Negre, trei subcapitole fiind destinate valurilor. Capitolul 3 debuteaz cu prezentarea sumar a celor mai ntlnite hazarde naturale, avnd un subcapitol aparte pentru descrierea detaliat a celui de tip tsunami. Dup prezentarea istoricului evenimentelor tsunami i a surselor seismologice din zona Mrii Negre, urmtorul subcapitol este consacrat simulrilor i consecinelor acestui tip de unde n bazinul vestic al Mrii Negre. Sunt identificate areale din zona litoralului Mrii Negre supuse agresiunii unor astfel de fenomene.

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Capitolul 4 este consacrat curenilor Rip. Sunt prezentate, la nceput, micri ale apei n zona costier, urmnd ca apoi, dup descrierea curenilor Rip, s se prezinte dou din modelele conceptuale de generare a acestora. Un subcapitol aparte l constituie prezentarea amenajrilor de protecie a rmului i identificarea zonelor cu risc n producerea necurilor. Capitolul 5 conine trei episoade de vreme sever pe litoralul romnesc al Mrii Negre, primul constnd dintr-o furtun n sezon rece, iar celelalte dou constnd din fenomene flash-flood n perioada estival. Lucrarea conine la sfrit, pe lng prezentarea bibliografiei i trei anexe ce conin descrieri sumare ale modelului numeric de prognoz a vremii GFS, a unor produse radar utilizate n lucrare, ct i un mic dicionar englez-romn de termeni hidrometeorologici (parte din ei utilizai n text).

Concluzii
Datorit faptului c linia de coast este intersecia dintre aer, ap i pmnt, interaciunile fizice care apar n aceast zon sunt unice, foarte complexe i greu de neles n totalitate. Lista efectelor interactiunii atmosfer - mare - uscat analizate const din: upwelling, tsunami, curenti Rip, furtuni, flash flood. Consecinele upwellingului sunt nu numai importante, ci i foarte variate: Din punct de vedere meteorologic datorita dificultati prognozrii temperaturii apei mrii, a apariiei ceii de advecie localizat doar n apropierea plajei sau a intensificarii brizei datorat gradientului termic. Din punct de vedere biologic datorita modificarii factorilor abiotici (temperatura apei mrii, salinitatea, concentraia nutrienilor) ce influeneaz anumite specii ale ecosistemului marin. Din punct de vedere turistic este considerat un fenomen neplcut, datorit diferenelor mari ce apar ntre temperatura apei i cea din atmosfer si a imposibilitatii scldatului n majoritatea cazurilor . Referiror la tsunami, este evident ca oriunde s-ar petrece acest eveniment, consecinele vor fi diferite, n funcie de momentul din zi sau din an, dar c oricare ar fi 11

acest moment, impactul economic va fi dezastruos. De la zonele de pescuit i turistice din delt i nordul litoralului, pn la zonele puternic industrializate din Nvodari, Constana i Mangalia, vor avea activitatea perturbat sau ntrerupt, pagubele neputnd fi estimate. Pagube la fel de nsemnate s-ar putea produce i n urma unui eveniment n zona platformelor marine. Industria turismului ar putea fi afectat, chiar i dac un tsunami ar acoperi litoralul romnesc n extrasezon, datorit pagubelor materiale produse bazelor turistice, dar cu att mai mult n perioada estival, cnd activitatea este extrem de intens, ea desfurndu-se i n locaii provizorii, neproiectate pentru a suporta asemenea evenimente. Nu e mai puin adevrat c ulterior unei asemenea catastrofe, activitatea turistic ar putea scadea dramatic. i impactul ecologic este major. Acoperirea unei lungi zone de rm, pe de o parte cu sedimente aduse de mare, i pe de alt parte cu obiecte dislocate n urma impactului, dar mai ales amestecului apelor mrii cu cele ale lacurilor Siutghiol i Techirghiol, ar putea avea consecine ireparabile prin modificarea salinitii i, n general a proprietilor fizico-chimice att de diferite. De asemenea structurile costiere vor avea de suferit, la momentul construciei lor nefiind luate n calcul evenimente seismice sau consecine ale acestora (vezi JICA). Dar cele mai mari pagube vor fi cele de ordin uman, indiferent de momentul producerii evenimentului. Este de notat c dac acesta are loc n cursul unei zile frumoase de var, numrul victimelor (mai ales n rndul copiilor) ar putea fi extrem de mare. De aceea, constientizarea consecinelor producerii unui asemenea eveniment poate limita pagubele dezastrului. Odat aceste evenimente produse, se poate realiza o simulare cu ajutorul unui model de tipul celui ilustrat anterior, n aa fel nct factorii de decizie s fie informai asupra succesiunii, amplitudinii i duratei unui astfel de eveniment. Chiar dac probabilitatea producerii unui astfel de hazard natural este extrem de mic, ea nu poate fi exclus, cu att mai mult cu ct ea se poate suprapune peste un eveniment meteorologic de amplitudine medie sau mare valuri de vnt generate de prezena unei depresiuni pe mare, precum i creterea nivelului mrii datorat fenomenului storm surge produs n aceleai condiii meteorologice.

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Chiar dac alarmarea n timp real a populaiei este extrem de greu de realizat, datorit intervalului mic de timp, de ordinul minutelor sau al zecilor de minute ntre momentul producerii evenimentului i contactul cu rmul, totui, educarea publicului despre eventualitatea producerii unui astfel de eveniment ar conduce la micorarea gradului de panic i la aciuni menite s salveze ct mai multe viei omeneti. Un capitol aparte l reprezint curenii Rip. Pe lng importana acestor cureni n transportul sedimentelor, trebuie avut n vedere, n sezonul estival, contribuia lor (aa cum a fost prezentat anterior) n cazurile de nec sau salvare. Datorit faptului c sunt cureni vizibili la suprafa, ei sunt uor de identificat de un ochi avizat. Nu exist nici o statistic a cazurilor de nec sau de salvare, n care s se fi fcut corelaie ntre aceste evenimente i apariia curenilor Rip din simplu motiv c cei ndriguii cu misiunile de salvare, nu au cunotine despre existena unor astfel de cureni. De aceea, ca prim msur n micorarea numrului victimelor, este instruirea salvamarilor n identificarea poziiei curenilor Rip i n estimarea intensitii acestora i a curentului longitudinal generator. Zona periculoas trebuie marcat n aa fel nct nottori s tie unde este primejdios s noate. Este foarte important s se marcheze nu numai distan corespunztoare lrgimii gtului curentului, ct i cea corespunzatoare largimii zonei de alimentare, deoarece n cazul unor viteze suficient de mari, pot absorbi nottorii ctre zona gtului curentului. nottorii pot fi prini de gtul curentului i, atunci cnd noat paralel cu rmul n zone cu ap puin adnc. Acest lucru se ntmpl foarte repede, n aa fel nct sunt mpini ctre larg i ajung extrem de rapid n zone cu ap adnc. Ei intr n panic i ncearc s noate ctre rm, practic mpotriva curentului. Cnd ajung n zone de deferlare ale valurilor au senzaia (grei) c vor fi ajutai s ajung mai repede la rm. Dar viteza curentului Rip este de aproximativ 7 km/h, n timp ce un nottor bun nu poate nota cu mai mult de 2 3 km/h. De aceea, ei ajung destul de repede la epuizare i de cele mai mult ori se neac. Cel mai important lucru pe care trebuie s-l fac atunci cnd sunt prini de un astfel de curent este sa nu intre n panic. n nici un caz nu trebuie s noate direct ctre rm, ci de-a lungul acestuia. Dac acest lucru nu d rezultate atunci trebuie s se 13

ntoarc i s noate n direcie opus. Deoarece, chiar dac teoretic, curentul Rip are 2 surse de alimentare, practic una dintre ele este dominant. Dac i n acest caz se constat c nu se pot elibera de acesta, nu rmne dect s se lase dus de curent spre larg. Cnd se constat c intensitatea acestuia scade, va putea nota paralel cu rmul pn cnd va prsi zona periculoas. Att furtunile din zona litoralului romanesc al Mrii Negre, ct i evenimentele tip flash flood, au fost abordate ntr-o manier diferit. Originalitatea acestor abordri const n utilizarea produselor oferite de modelele numerice i de radarul Dopper WSR98 amplasat la Medgidia. Utilizarea acestor tipuri de informatii, accesibile n urma implementrii programului SIMIN, au conferit oportunitatea urmririi vremii n timp real i cu mult mai mare profunzime. Posibilitatea scanrii continue a atmosferei i a recepionarii produselor la fiecare 7 minute, a realizrii diferitelor seciuni verticale prin structuri potential periculoase (VCS, RCS), urmrirea poziiilor anterioare i estimarea celor viitoare ale celulelor convective (STI), extrapolarea profilului vntului cu nlimea la verticala radarului (VWP), estimarea nlimii maxime a norilor (ET), precum i a cantitilor de precipitatii nregistrate ntr-o ora, trei ore sau pe durata ntregii furtuni (OHP, THP, STR), ne ajut s obinem o imagine detaliat a complexitii interaciunii ocean - atmosfer - pmnt. Coroborarea informaiilor descrie mai sus cu cele oferite de modelele numerice de prognoza a vremii, conduc la nelegerea mai profunda a desfurrii fenomenelor in care aportul mrii este esenial, fr ns a putea acoperi ntreaga paleta de procese ce se produc n aceasta zon de frontier ocean - atmosfer pmnt. Contribuia personal const n premiera abordrii unor astfel de fenomene ntr-o lucrare unitar, punndu-se accent att pe mecanismele de declanare ct i pe consecinele pe care aceste tipuri de hazarde la pot produce. Originalitatea abordrii este dat de simularea, pentru prima oar pentru Marea Neagr, a unor unde de tip tsunami, precum i de identificarea i clasificarea zonelor de risc. i n cazul curenilor Rip este pentru prima oar cnd n literatura romn de specialitate apare o descriere detaliat a acestora. nelegerea mecanismelor de formare i contribuia acestora n transportul sedimentelor m-au condus la identificarea zonelor care 14

(dup finalizarea proceselor de nnisipare) ar avea potenial n producerea accidentelor prin nec. Utilizarea produselor radarului Doppler s-a constituit ntr-o abordare neconvenional de strict actualitate, att a unei furtuni, ct i a nelegerii fenomenelor tip flash-flood din zona litoralului Mrii Negre. n toate cele trei studii de caz s-a pus accent pe influena mrii asupra amplitudinii fenomenelor studiate. n urma analizrii numai a ctorva aspecte se poate trage o concluzie comun, aceea c echilibru interaciunii atmosfer mare uscat, este foarte delicat i instabil i c orice intervenie ce se ntreprinde pentru ameliorarea unor neajunsuri trebuie analizat n profunzime pentru a nu produce, n timp, dezechilibre majore sau chiar ireparabile.

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