Lazr Avram

ELEMENTE DE MANAGEMENTUL FORAJULUI ELEMENTS OF DRILLING MANAGEMENT

Editura Universitii Petrol-Gaze din Ploieti 2011

Copyright2011 Editura Universitii Petrol-Gaze din Ploieti Toate drepturile asupra acestei ediii sunt rezervate editurii Autorul poart ntreaga rspundere moral, legal i material fa de editur i tere persoane pentru coninutul lucrrii. Descrierea CIP a Bibliotecii Naionale a Romniei AVRAM, LAZR Elemente de managementul forajului / Lazr Avram. - Ploieti: Editura Universitii Petrol-Gaze din Ploieti, 2011 Bibliogr. ISBN 978-973-719-435-0 622.24
Control tiinific: Prof. univ. dr. ing. Mihai Pascu Coloja ef lucr. dr. ing. Mihaela Oprea Ciopi Redactor: Prof. univ. dr. ing. Mihai Pascu Coloja Tehnoredactare computerizat: Prof. univ. dr. ing. Lazr Avram Traducere: Lector dr. Loredana Ilie Lector dr. Diana Presad Coperta: Mihail Radu Director editur: Prof. univ. dr. ing. erban Vasilescu Adresa: Editura Universitii Petrol-Gaze din Ploieti Bd. Bucureti 39, cod 100680 Ploieti, Romnia Tel. 0244-573171, Fax. 0244-575847 http://editura.upg-ploiesti.ro/

ROMN

ENGLEZ

CUPRINS
Cuvnt nainte 5 1. ANALIZA STRII ACTUALE A INDUSTRIEI EXTRACTIVE DE PETROL I GAZE 7 2. PARTAJAREA DOMENIULUI OFFSHORE 27 3. FORAJUL N APE ADNCI I ULTRA ADNCI GENERALITI 33 4. ACTIVITATEA DE FORAJ 41 4.1. Generaliti 41 4.2. Structura general a procesului de forare a sondelor 44 5. ELEMENTE DE EFICIEN ECONOMIC N ACTIVITATEA DE FORAJ 47 6. CALCULUL CAPACITII DE PRODUCIE NTR-O UNITATE DE FORAJ 57 7. METODE I TEHNICI DE MANAGEMENT 63 7.1. Tabele de decizie 64 7.2. Msurarea riscului 75 7.3. Metode i tehnici de prognoz 81 7.4. Metode moderne de programare a produciei 86 8. FUNDAMENTAREA RAPORTULUI PRODUCIE REZERVE METRI FORAI (GAZE) 97 9. EFICIENA INVESTIIILOR N INDUSTRIA EXTRACTIV DE PETROL I GAZE 107 9.1. Generaliti 107 9.2. Indicatorii eficienei economice a investiiilor 108 9.3. Metoda Discount Cash Flow (DCF) de estimare a investiiilor, cheltuielilor i veniturilor 123 BIBLIOGRAFIE SELECTIV 135

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract 5 1. ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE PETROLEUM AND GAS EXTRACTION INDUSTRY 7 2. OFFSHORE DOMAIN SHARING 27 3. DRILLING IN DEEP AND ULTRA DEEP WATER GENERAL PRESENTATION 33 4. THE DRILLING ACTIVITY 41 4.1. General Presentation 41 4.2. The General Structure of the Well-Drilling Process 44 5. ELEMENTS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF DRILLING OPERATIONS 47 6. CALCULATING THE PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN A DRILLING UNIT 57 7. MANAGEMENT METHODS AND TECHNIQUES 63 7.1. Decision Tables 64 7.2. Risk Measurement 75 7.3. Forecast Methods and Techniques 81 7.4. Modern Methods of Production Scheduling 86 8. ESTABLISHING THE RELATIONSHIP AMONG PRODUCTION, RESERVES AND DRILLED METERS OF GAS 97 9. THE EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENTS IN THE PETROLEUM AND GAS EXTRACTION INDUSTRY 107 9.1. General Presentation 107 9.2. Economic Efficiency Indicators of Investments 108 9.3. The Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF) of Estimating Investment, Expenses and Revenue 123 SELECTIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY 135

CUVNT NAINTE
Cercetrile actuale din domeniul managementului se axeaz pe gsirea de noi modaliti care s asigure eficiena economic a activitilor, n condiiile unor schimbri relevante pe plan intern i internaional. Globalizarea, criza economic, dezvoltarea durabil, competitivitatea, sigurana energetic sunt doar cteva din conceptele ce guverneaz economiile actuale care au determinat noi orientri n abordarea managementului ca tiin i activitate practic. Managementul activitii de foraj este domeniul care impune o atenie deosebit n instruirea teoretic i practic a specialitilor, astfel ca formarea acestora s le permit adaptarea ct mai rapid la cerinele tot mai complexe ale pieei muncii. Lucrarea de fa are ca obiectiv principal cunoaterea i nelegerea principalelor concepte, principii, metode, tehnici i instrumente ale managementului activitii de foraj. Prin exemplele abordate, cartea ofer o serie de informaii utile privind modalitile prin care pot fi aplicate aceste metode pentru a asigura succesul organizaiilor din industria petrolier. Lucrarea este structurat pe nou capitole i i propune s abordeze ntr-o succesiune logic, coerent, problematica complex cu care se confrunt managementul activitii de foraj. Capitolul 1 intitulat Analiza strii actuale a industriei extractive de petrol i gaze, rspunde la o serie de ntrebri legate de evoluia acestei industrii inndu-se seama de rezervele existente, incertitudinea previziunilor i efortul depus de companiile petroliere n descoperirea de noi zcminte. n capitolul 2 se delimiteaz domeniul offshore ca reprezentnd o surs potenial de rezerve care ar putea fi explorate ntr-un viitor apropiat de ctre investitorii pionieri. 5

ABSTRACT
Current research in the field of management focuses on finding new ways to ensure the economic efficiency of activities in terms of relevant local and international changes. Globalization, economic crisis, sustainable development, competitiveness, energy security are some of the concepts which govern current economies and which have led to new guidelines in the approach of management both as science and as practical activity. Drilling management is an area that requires special attention in the theoretical and practical training of specialists in order to allow them to sharply adapt to the ever growing requirements of the labour market. This paper has as a main objective the knowledge and understanding of the key concepts, principles, methods, techniques and instruments of drilling management. Through the examples taken into discussion, the book offers a series of information concerning the manner in which these methods may be applied in order to ensure the success of petroleum industry organizations. The book is divided into nine chapters and aims to address the complex issues of drilling management in a logical and coherent sequence. Chapter 1, entitled "Analysis of the current state of oil and gas production industry", gives answers to a series of questions about the development of this industry taking into account the existing reserves, the uncertanty of predictions and the effort made by oil companies to discover new deposits. Chapter 2 identifies the offshore area as a source of potential reserves that could be explored in the near future by "pioneer investors".

Capitolul 3 analizeaz operaiile i necesarul de echipamente pentru forajul n ape cu adncimi mari. n capitolul 4 se dezvolt problematica organizrii n derularea activitilor de foraj, care impune constituirea de echipe cu caracter multidisciplinar din ingineri chimiti, ingineri geologi, ingineri de foraj, economiti etc. Eficiena tehnico-economic a activitii de foraj se apreciaz cu ajutorul unor indicatori specifici, prezentai n capitolul 5. n capitolul 6 se exemplific modul de calcul al capacitii de producie ntr-o unitate de foraj. Metodele i tehnicile de fundamentare a deciziilor specifice industriei extractive de petrol i gaze, prezentate n capitolul 7, sunt exemplificate prin probleme i studii de caz. n capitolul 8 se prezint modelarea deciziei de fundamentare a raportului producie rezerve metri forai, care impune determinarea unui volum optim economic al produciei de gaze extrase i efectuarea unui calcul de optimizare a creterii rezervelor, n sensul alegerii variantei optime ntre posibilitile de cretere ale acestora. Baza economic a ntregii activiti de foraj este dat de eficiena investiiilor msurat prin indicatori specifici, prezentai n capitolul 9. Lucrarea se adreseaz cu prioritate studenilor de la specializarea Management n industria petrolier, dar poate fi utilizat i de ctre manageri, ingineri i economiti implicai n derularea proceselor din industria extractiv de petrol i gaze. Prof. dr.ing. Cornelia Coroian-Stoicescu

Chapter 3 analyzes deep sea drilling operations and equipment. Chapter 4 dwells on the issue of the organization of drilling activities, which requires building a multidisciplinary team consisting of chemistry engineers, geologists, drilling engineers, economists, etc. The technical and economic efficiency of drilling is estimated by means of specific indicators, presented in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 illustrates the calculation of the production capacity in a drilling unit. Different methods and techniques substantiating the specific decisions of oil and gas production industry are presented in Chapter 7. They are also exemplified by problems and case studies. Chapter 8 follows a model of substantiating a decision for the ratio between production - reserves - drilled meters, which requires the determination of an economically optimum volume of the extracted gas and the performing of a calculus to optimize the increase of reserves in the sense of the optimal choice between the possibilities of their growth. The economic basis of entire drilling activity is given by the efficiency of investments measured by the specific indicators presented in Chapter 9. This paper is intended especially for students attending courses in Oil industry management, but it can also be used by managers, engineers and economists involved in the development of oil and gas production industry. Prof. dr.ing. Cornelia Coroian-Stoicescu

1.
ANALIZA STRII ACTUALE A INDUSTRIEI EXTRACTIVE DE PETROL I GAZE
ntr-o economie din ce n ce mai globalizat, strategia energetic a unei ri se realizeaz n contextul situaiilor, evoluiilor i schimbrilor care au loc pe plan mondial. Obiectivele principale ale strategiei noastre energetice sunt conforme cu Noua Politic Energetic a Uniunii Europene, adoptat n anul 2007: sigurana energetic, dezvoltarea durabil i competitivitatea. n ceea privete sigurana energetic, trebuie precizat de la bun nceput c cererea total de energie n 2030 va fi cu aproximativ 50 % mai mare dect n 2003, iar cererea de petrol va fi cu circa 46 % mai mare. Mai mult, dependena de importul de petrol din UE se ateapt s creasc de la 82 %, la ora actual, la 93 % n 2030 [15]. n acest context se caut, desigur, surse alternative,
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1.
ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE PETROLEUM AND GAS EXTRACTION INDUSTRY
In an increasingly globalized economy, the energetic strategy of a country is determined by the context of the situations, changes and evolutions that are taking place all over the world at present. The major objectives of our energetic strategies comply with the New Energetic Policy of the European Union. As regards energetic safety, we should specify from the beginning that the total energetic demand in 2030 will be approximately 50 % higher than it was in 2003, and the demand for petroleum will increase by about 46 %. In addition, our dependence on the import of petroleum from the EU is expected to increase from 82 %, as it is today, to 93 % in 2030 [1-5]. In this context, it is obviously necessary

care s reduc dependena fa de unul dintre furnizorii principali i cel mai puin previzibil: Federaia Rus. Legat de dezvoltarea durabil trebuie remarcat, n primul rnd, faptul c la nivelul UE, sectorul energetic este unul dintre principalii productori de gaze cu efect de ser. Emisiile de CO2, la nivel planetar, sunt enorme: de ordinal a 25 miliarde de tone /an. n termeni de volum, emisiile de CO2 reprezint aproximativ 80 % din emisiile mondiale (aproximativ 70 % dintre acestea provin din rile industrializate [8]). Alte gaze care absorb razele infraroii emise de Terra provin din rejeturile aferente unor activiti umane, mai cu seam n rile puternic industrializate: metanul, oxidul nitros, compuii fluorai etc. Dei emisiile de CH4 sunt relativ reduse, comparativ cu cele de CO2 (aproximativ 10 % din volumul emisiilor totale), contribuia lor la procesul de nclzire global este de 21 de ori mai mare dect cea a dioxidului de carbon. Oxidul nitros N2O, a crui putere vizavi de nclzirea global este
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to seek alternative resources that should reduce dependence on one of the major and the least reliable suppliers: the Russian Federation. As far as sustainable development is concerned, we should principally note that the energetic sector in the European Union is one of the main generators of the greenhouse gas effect. The worldwide CO2 emissions are enormous: around 25 billion tons per year. CO2 emissions represent approximately 80 % of the volume of world gas emissions (70 % of these emissions are generated by the industrialized countries [8]). Other gases that absorb infrared radiation emitted from the Earth are generated by household waste, especially in industrialized countries: methane, nitrous oxide, fluorine compounds, etc. Although the CH4 emissions are relatively low compared to those of CO 2 (about 10% of the total emissions), their contribution to global warming is 21 times higher than the one caused by carbon dioxide. Nitric oxide N2O, whose contribution to global warming is 310 times higher than

de 310 ori mai mare dect cea a dioxidului de carbon, provine din ngrmintele cu azot, consumul de energie din transporturi i din cadrul unor procedee industriale specifice. Ponderea N2O din cadrul emisiilor globale este de aproximativ 13 %. n fine, compuii fluorai corespund unor emisii reduse ca volum, dar impactul lor asupra mediului ambiant este deosebit, dat fiind nocivitatea lor cu mult superioar celei aferente dioxidului de carbon. n ceea ce privete competitivitatea, piaa intern de energie a Uniunii Europene asigur, principial, stabilirea unor preuri corecte i competitive aferente energiei, stimuleaz economisirea de energie i atrage investiii n sectoarele specifice. Obiectivele cuprinse n Noua Politic Energetic a UE se refer, n principal, la: - reducerea emisiilor de gaze cu efect de ser cu 20 % pn n anul 2020, n comparaie cu cele din anul 1990; - creterea ponderii energiei regenerabile n totalul consumului energetic de la aproximativ 7 % n anul 2006, la 20 % n 2020; - reducerea consumului global de energie primar cu
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the one generated by carbon dioxide, comes from nitric fertilizers, energy consumption resulting from transport and some specific industrial processes. N2O represents approximately 13 % of the global emissions. Finally, fluorine compounds correspond to low volume emissions, but their impact on the environment is considerable because of their much more harmful effect than the one of carbon dioxide. As regards competitiveness, the internal energetic market of the European Union, in principle, establishes correct and competitive prices related to energy, stimulates energy saving and attracts investments in specific sectors. The objectives included in the New Energetic Policy of the European Union mainly refer to the following: - reducing the greenhouse gas emissions by 20 % by the year 2020, in comparion with the emissions of 1990; - increasing the share of renewable energy in the overall energy consumption from approximately 7 % in to 20 % in 2020; - reducing the global consumption of primary energy

20 %, pn n anul 2020; - creterea ponderii biocombustibililor la cel puin 10 % din totalul combustibililor utilizai n anul 2020 etc. n ceea ce privete Romnia, privitor la strategia energetic se au n vedere urmtoarele obiective: promovarea unor proiecte multinaionale care s asigure diversificarea accesului la resursele energetice de materii prime, n special de gaze i petrol (proiectul Nabucco i conducta de petrol Constana Trieste); creterea capacitilor de nmagazinare a gazelor naturale; interconectarea Sistemului Naional de Transport Gaze Naturale cu sistemele similare din rile vecine: interconectarea cu Ungaria pe relaia Arad-Szeged; interconectarea cu Bulgaria pe relaia Giurgiu-Ruse; interconectarea cu Ucraina pe relaia Cernui-Siret; interconectarea cu Moldova pe traseul DrochiaUngheni. Crizele din anii 1973 i 1978-1980, ca i creterile de preuri din 2004 i 2005, ca s nu mai vorbim de nspimnttoarele dereglri din anii 2008 i 2011, ne
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by 20 % by the year 2020; - increasing the share of biofuels to at least 10 % of the total amount of fuels used in the year 2020, etc. As far as Romania is concerned, the energetic strategy aims at the following: Promoting certain multinational projects able to diversify the access to raw material energetic resources, especially gas and petroleum (the Nabucco project and the Constana Trieste oil pipeline); Increasing gas storage capacity; Interconnecting the National Gas Transport System with the similar systems in the neighbouring countries: interconnection with Hungary via Arad-Szeged; interconnection with Bulgaria via Giurgiu-Ruse; interconnection with Ukraine via CernuiSiret; interconnection with The Republic of Moldova via Drochia-Ungheni. The crises in 1973 and between 1978 and 1980, as well as the price increases in 2004 and 2005, leaving aside the frightening oil market dysfunctions in 2008 and 2011, again

readuc n fa temerile justificate legate de viitorul industriei extractive de petrol. Valoarea real a rezervelor disponibile, ca i funcionarea ca atare a pieelor mondiale, suscit, firete, neliniti. Evoluia tehnic a altor sectoare energetice gaze naturale, crbune, energii rennoibile, domeniul nuclear, hidrogenul .c.l. aduc cu ele i o nedisimulat speran pentru viitor. i totui, n ciuda pesimismului multor observatori, acel temut peak oil final - moment de dinaintea declinului final al produciei de petrol i gaze nu reprezint o ameninare imediat. Desigur, nainte de a prezenta situaia actual a produciei de petrol din lume, trebuie s admitem c exist numeroi parametri i numeroase incertitudini legate de rezervele de petrol ca atare. a. Care este credibilitatea real a informaiilor legate de rezerve? Rezervele probate reprezint informaii strategice att pentru companiile petroliere ct i pentru rile productoare, att sub aspect etnic ct i financiar. b. Care sunt progresele realizate n ceea ce privete
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bring to the fore the well-grounded fears related to the future of the petroleum extraction industry. The real value of the available oil reserves, as well as the functioning of the global market as such, surely causes worries. Technical development of the other energy sources - natural gas, coal, renewable energy, nuclear field, hydrogen a.s.o - bring with them an unconcealed hope for the future. Nevertheless, despite the pessimism of many observers, that feared final peak oil - the moment before the final decline of oil and gas production - is not an immediate threat. Certainly, before presenting the current state of world oil production, we must admit that there are many parameters and numerous uncertainties related to oil reserves as such. a. What is the real credibility of the information related to oil reserves? Proven reserves represent strategic information for both oil companies and producing countries, from both an ethnic and a financial point of view. b. What progress has been made regarding the

recuperarea rezervelor dintr-un zcmnt dat? n cadrul industriei petroliere s-au realizat progrese considerabile n ceea ce privete tehnicile de stimulare aferente sondelor vechi, n activitate. Injecia de vapori de ap sau de CO2 permite s se recupereze procente de 50 % sau mai mari de iei, comparativ cu 30 % pentru tehnicile aferente pompajului clasic. n mod logic, prioritatea o reprezint, aadar, creterea factorului de extracie pentru zcmintele de iei cunoscute. Deloc de neglijat sunt, desigur, noile progrese tehnologice. c. Ce eforturi reale s-au depus de ctre companiile petroliere pentru descoperirea de noi zcminte? Cum i concentreaz actualmente marile companii eforturile, mai ales asupra maximizrii produciei din zcmintele cunoscute, petrolifere respectiv identificate, asupra teama dezvoltrii privind cmpurilor descoperirea

recovery of oil from a given reservoir? Remarkable progress has been made within the petroleum industry concerning the stimulation techniques related to old rigs that are still functioning. The injection of water vapours or CO2 enables the recovery of 50 % or more of crude oil in comparison with 30 % of oil recovery which is characteristic of the classic pumping techniques. Logically, the priority lies in increasing the extraction factor for the already known oil reservoirs. The new technological progress should not be underestimated. c. What genuine efforts have been made by oil companies in order to discover new oil reserves? Due to the fact that the great companies are concentrating their efforts on maximizing the production of the known reservoirs, that is on the development of identified oil fields, our concerns about the discovery of future resources, as well as the strong dissentions connected to price evolutions (see the situation at the end of 2008) constitute vital issues today. d. Can the evolution of the consumption of oil

resurselor viitoare, ca i tensiunile puternice legate de evoluiile preurilor (vezi situaia de la sfritul anului 2008) constituie probleme la ordinea zilei. d. Se poate prevedea, cu precizie, evoluia
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consumului de produse petroliere? Previziunile legate de consumul produselor petroliere sufer de mari incertitudini. n fapt, creterea anual a consumului este strns legat de creterea economic. n ciuda puternicei dominaii actuale a produselor petroliere n domeniul transporturilor, carburanii de substituire, de tip biocarburani, s-ar putea s-i pun amprenta mult mai devreme dect ne-am atepta. Analiznd datele din revistele de specialitate ale ultimilor ani [5], se poate aprecia, ca o medie a rezervelor dovedite, valoarea de 1200 de miliarde de barili. Cum media consumului zilnic, n lume, n ultimii ani este de ordinul a 80 de milioane de barili/zi, ar rezulta o producie stabil de aproximativ 41 de ani, la nivelul consumului actual. Iar dac la cele 1200 de miliarde de barili de petrol convenional adugm aproximativ 600 miliarde de barili provenite din resursele neconvenionale (ieiul extragreu din Venezuela, nisipurile asfaltice din Canada etc.), ajungem la o valoare a produciei stabile de 61 de ani, la nivelul consumului actual.
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products be precisely predicted? The forecasts related to the consumption of oil products are rather uncertain. As a matter of fact, the annual increase in consumption is tightly related to the economic growth. In spite of the strong present domination of oil products in transport, substitution fuels, especially the biofuel type, might become popular much sooner than expected. After analysing the data in specialized journals in the last few years [5], we can state that the amount of 1200 billion of oil barrels represents the average amount of the proven reserves. Because the average world daily consumption in recent years is around 80 million barrels per day, we can estimate that there will be a stable production of about 41 years at current consumption levels. And if we add about 600 billion barrels from unconventional resources (extra heavy oil of Venezuela, tar sands of Canada, etc.) to the 1200 billion barrels of conventional oil, we will reach a stable value of production for 61 years at the current consumption level.

La ora actual, OPEP controleaz circa 40 % din producia mondial de petrol i deine aproximativ 75 % din rezerve. ntrebri fireti: influena ei se va reduce n viitor, sau din contr, va crete? Marile companii petroliere, prevenite de primul oc petrolier, sunt oare actualmente n stare s slbeasc menghina produciei? .a.m.d. rile productoare care nu sunt membre OPEP furnizeaz 60 % din producia mondial prin intermediul companiilor naionale sau multinaionale Exxon-Mobil, BP, Shell, Total, ChevronTexaco etc. care se vor impune n viitor mai ales n ceea ce privete asistena tehnic privitoare la foraj, extracie, rafinare i distribuie. Primul productor mondial (cifrele din paranteze, n milioane de tone anual, sunt aproximative), Arabia Saudit (500), continu s-i mreasc producia (cu peste 20 % fa de 1994) i, cu siguran, va juca un rol important att n viitorul apropiat, ct i n cel ndeprtat. Rusia, al doilea productor mondial (300), posed marje de producie considerabile. De fapt, rile din ex14

At present, OPEP controls about 40 % of the world oil production and holds approximately 75 % of oil reserves. Some simple questions: will its influence diminish in the future, or, on the contrary, will it increase? Can we state that the great oil companies, which were warned by the first oil shock, are now able to weaken the vice of production? Producing countries, which are not OPEP members, provide 60 % of the world production by means of the national and multinational companies such as Exxon-Mobil, BP, Shell, Total, ChevronTexaco, etc. These will prevail in the future especially in terms of technical assistance related to drilling, extraction, refining and distribution. The worlds first oil producer (the figures in brackets, which represent millions of tons per year, are approximate), Saudi Arabia (500), continues to increase oil production (by over 20 % in comparison with 1994) and will certainly play an important role in the near or remote future. Russia, the worlds second oil producer (300), possesses significant production quantities. In fact, the

URSS, n care includem i Rusia, i pun din ce n ce mai acut amprenta n ceea ce privete dominaia asupra produciei mondiale. Producia lor a crescut cu aproximativ 50 % n ultimii zece ani. Sau, mai mult, producia s-a triplat (cazul Kazahstan). n parantez fie spus, Rusia i asigur astzi peste 60 % din necesarul de valut forte prin exportul de iei i gaze, mai ales n Europa de Vest i n Europa Central, n scopul rennoirii tehnologice a industriei petroliere i a reducerii decalajului de productivitate fa de rile avansate [6]. Se pune, desigur, ntrebarea fireasc: ct de pregtite sunt companiile de petrol pentru a face fa unor surprize inerente n ceea ce privete criza petrolului? Istoria crizelor petroliere de dup 1973 a dovedit limpede neputina companiilor petroliere de a face fa crizelor fr sprijinul politic i chiar militar al marilor puteri industrializate ale lumii (Agenia Internaional de Energie, Rezervele Strategice de Petrol ale SUA, Rezervele Strategice de Petrol ale Germaniei, Rezervele Strategice de Petrol ale Japoniei etc. [6]).
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countries of the former USSR, Russia being included too, are exerting more and more influence as regards their dominance on the worlds oil market. Their production has increased by about 50 % over the last ten years. In addition, production has tripled (in Kazahstan's case). Let us mention too that Russia now provides over 60 % of hard currency by exporting oil and gas, especially in Western and Central Europe, with the aim of renewing the oil industry technology and of closing its productivity gap with the advanced countries [6]. Therefore, the natural question: How well prepared are oil companies for coping with the inherent risks in an oil crisis? The history of the oil crises after 1973 clearly demonstrated the inability of oil companies to face them without the political and even military support of the industrialized powers of the world (International Energy Agency, the U.S. strategic oil reserves, the strategic oil reserves of Germany, the strategic oil reserves of Japan, etc. [6]).

Iranul este al treilea productor mondial (240). Urmeaz SUA (220) care, pentru a-i conserva rezervele strategice, i-a redus producia cu aproximativ 15 % n ultimii zece ani. Bineneles, Statele Unite, cu un consum de aproximativ 25 % din cel mondial (aproximativ 20 de milioane de barili pe zi), sunt de departe cei mai mari consumatori de petrol din lume (cu titlu informativ, partea Franei este 2,5 % din consumaia mondial, a Germaniei 3,3 %, a Japoniei 6,4 % .a.m.d.). Mexicul, al cincilea productor mondial (190), i-a crescut producia cu 25 % n zece ani. China (170), al aselea productor mondial, este de departe primul productor n Asia (dac produciile Tailandei (40) i cele ale Vietnamului (21) sunt n continu cretere, cele ale Indonezei (55), din contr, au nceput s scad). Un fenomen major care trebuie semnalat este acela al creterii importante a consumului de petrol din China. n anul 1994, producia chinez acoperea consumul naional. Zece ani mai trziu, n 2004, consumul din China era de dou ori mai mare dect
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Iran is the worlds third oil producer (240). The following one is the U.S.A (220) which, in order to preserve its strategic reserves, has reduced production by about 15 % over the last decade. Certainly, the United States, whose oil consumption represents about 25 % of the total world oil consumption (about 20 million barrels per day), is by far the largest oil "consumer" in the world (to complete the data, Frances share is 2.5 % of the world oil consumption, Germanys share is 3.3%, Japans share is 6.4 %, etc.). Mexico is the worlds fifth oil producer and its production has risen by 25 % over the last ten years. China (170), the worlds sixth producer, is by far the leading producer in Asia (if the production of Thailand (40) and that of Vietnam (21) are increasing, that of Indonesia (55), by contrast, has begun to decline). A major phenomenon that should be mentioned is Chinas significant increase in oil consumption. In 1994, Chinese production covered national consumption. Ten years later, in 2004, consumption in China was two times higher than its production. Consequently, China imported 3.4 million

producia sa. n consecin, China a importat 3,4 milioane de barili pe zi, import provenind din Orientul Mijlociu (37 %), Asia Pacificului (24 %), Africa de Vest (16 %) i rile din ex-URSS (11 %). Oricum, evoluia dezvoltrii Chinei reprezint, n viitor, un parametru decisiv al evoluiei pieelor petroliere. Pe locul apte pare a se situa Venezuela (160), a crei producie a crescut destul de lent n ultimul timp. Urmeaz Norvegia, al optulea productor mondial cu aproximativ 150 milioane tone (Regatul Unit al Marii Britanii, cu cele circa 95 de milioane de tone, rmne la rndu-i un productor european important, dei n ultimii zece ani producia s-a redus cu aproximativ 25 %). Se poate aprecia c, n ultimii zece ani, consumul aferent Uniunii Europene a crescut relativ puin (aproximativ 2 %), dar producia s-a redus cu circa 14 %. Dependena sa vizavi de Orientul Mijlociu s-a diminuat dar, n viitor, aproximativ 43 % din importurile sale sunt legate de Rusia i de alte ri din ex-URSS. n Africa, Nigeria, al noulea productor mondial,
17

barrels per day from the Middle East (37 %), Asia Pacific (24 %), West Africa (16 %) and from the ex-USSR countries (11 %). However, China's development will represent a decisive parameter of the oil market evolution.

The seventh position seems to belong to Venezuela (160), whose production has slowly grown lately. Norway has been ranked as the eighth largest producer because it extracts about 150 million tons of crude oil (in its turn, the United Kingdom of Great Britain remains an important European producer due to the fact hat it produces about 95 million tons, although its production has decreased by about 25 % over the past decade). It is estimated that, over the last ten years, consumption in the European Union has grown relatively slowly (by about 2 %), while production has fallen by about 14 %. Its dependence on the Middle East has decreased, but in the future about 43% of its imports will be related to Russia and other ex-USSR countries. In Africa, Nigeria, the ninth largest producer, extracts

extrage aproximativ 120 de milioane de tone anual .a.m.d. Date oarecum similare gsim i n lucrarea [6], n care rezervele mondiale dovedite sunt defalcate pe ri, printre care i Romnia (tabelul 1.1).
Tabelul 1.1. Rezerve mondiale de petrol [6]
Zona SUA Canada Mexic Total America de nord America de Sud +Caraibe Danemarca Italia Norvegia Romnia Marea Britanie Alte ri Total Europa Fosta URSS Orientul Mijlociu Africa Asia-Pacific Total mondial [Milioane tone] 3 700 800 4 000 8 500 13 600 100 100 1 200 200 700 200 2 500 9 000 92 500 10 000 6 000 142 100

120 million tons annually, etc. We may find somewhat similar data in paper [6], where the world's proven reserves are grouped by countries, Romania being included too (Table 1.1).
Table 1.1. Global oil reserves [6]
Zone USA Canada Mexico North America, Total South America +Carribean Denmark Italy Norway Romania Great Britain Other countries Europe, Total Former USSR Middle East Africa Asia-Pacific World, Total [Million tons] 3 700 800 4 000 8 500 13 600 100 100 1 200 200 700 200 2 500 9 000 92 500 10 000 6 000 142 100

Precum se tie, Romnia figureaz printre puinele ri cu rezerve de petrol dovedite din Europa, la nivelul a 200 000 tone exploatabile. Dintre acestea, 47,8 % sunt rezerve primare, cu grad ridicat de certitudine i se pot
18

As known, Romania is among the few countries in Europe possessing proven oil reserves, at the level of 200 000 exploitable tons. Of these, 47.8 % are primary reserves with a high degree of certainty which can be

exploata prin energia proprie a zcmntului; restul, 52,2 % sunt rezerve secundare, care se pot exploata prin suplimentarea energiei zcmntului. Capacitatea de prelucrare a ieiului n Romnia, n anii 89, era de circa 34 milioane tone /an. La ora actual este funcional doar o capacitate de aproximativ 18,8 milioane tone /an, distribuit conform tabelului 1.2 [6]. Din analiza datelor aferente tabelului 1.1 putem concluziona urmtoarele [6]: - rezervele dovedite de iei sunt distribuite neuniform pe glob, ponderea maxim (peste 60 % din acestea) deinndu-o Orientul Mijlociu, urmat de America de Sud + Caraibe, Africa, ex-URSS etc.; rezult, de aici, dependena celorlalte zone geografice de importul de iei din aceste zone excedentare; - ca urmare a puternicei dezvoltri industriale i sociale din America de Nord i Europa, ca i a ritmului accelerat al industrializrii zonei Asia-Pacific, aceste zone n care se consum mai mult petrol dect se produce, sunt net importatoare de iei;
19

exploited through the energy of the deposit; the rest of 52.2 % represents secondary reserves, which can be exploited by supplementing the energy of the deposit. Romanias capacity to process crude oil in 1989 was around 34 million tons per year. At present its functional capacity is only about 18.8 million tons per year, distributed according to Table 1.2 [6]. From the analysis of the data in Table 1.1, we can draw the following conclusions [6]: - proven oil reserves are unevenly distributed across the Earth, the majority of them (over 60 %) being located in the Middle East, followed by South America + Caribbean, Africa, the former USSR, etc.; as a consequence, the other geographical areas depend on the oil import from these regions; - owing to the strong industrial and social development in North America and Europe, as well as to the accelerated rhythm of industrialization in the AsiaPacific region, these areas, in which oil consumption is higher than its production, are crude oil importers;

- capacitile de rafinare primar a ieiului sunt n concordan cu consumul de petrol al zonelor geografice respective, excepie fcnd Europa Central i fosta URSS, unde se constat un excedent de capacitate de rafinare a petrolului (explicaia trebuie cutat, ntre altele, n dificultile economice generate de tranziia la economia de pia). Rezervele poteniale de petrol care ar putea fi exploatate n perspectiv sunt de aproximativ 252 milioane tone. ieiurile romneti sunt predominant parafino-naftenice, putnd fi utilizate att pentru obinerea carburanilor, ct i a uleiurilor i a hidrocarburilor aromatice [6].
Tabelul 1.2. Capaciti actuale de prelucrare a ieiului n Romnia [5, 6]
Capaciti de prelucrare SNP Petrom OMW: Sucursala Arpechim Sucursala Petrobrazi Rompetrol S.A. : Petromidia Vega Petrotel Lukoil S.A. Rafo Oneti Drmneti Suplacu de Barcu Steaua Romn Astra Ploieti Total [Milioane tone /an] 3,50 4,50 4,00 0,45 2,50 3,50 0,35 18,8

- primary oil refining capacities are in line with the oil consumption of these geographical areas, with the exception of Central Europe and the former USSR, where there is a surplus of oil refining capacity (the explanation must reside, inter alia, in the economic difficulties caused by the transition to the market economy). The potential oil reserves that could be exploited in the future are about 252 million tons. Romanian crude oils are predominantly paraffino-naphthenic, being used for obtaining fuels, as well as oils and aromatic hydrocarbons [6].
Table 1.2. Current crude oil processing capacities in Romania [5, 6]
Processing Capacities SNP Petrom OMW: Arpechim Branch Petrobrazi Branch Rompetrol S.A. Petromidia Vega Petrotel Lukoil S.A. Rafo Oneti Drmneti Suplacu de Barcu Steaua Romn Astra Ploieti Total [Million tons /year] 3,50 4,50 4,00 0,45 2,50 3,50 0,35 18,8

20

Cantitatea de iei prelucrat astzi n Romnia este calculat pe criterii de asigurare a consumului energetic i numai n subsidiar pentru chimizarea acesteia. Prognoza produciei de iei, gazolin i etan pe perioada 2008 - 2015, nu este deloc ncurajatoare. Producia anual de iei va scdea de la 5,8 milioane tone la 4 milioane tone, producia de gazolin de la 167 000 t la 109 000 t, iar cea de etan de la 74 000 t la 42 000 t. n tabelul 1.3 este prezentat o comparaie ntre produsele petrochimice de baz fabricate n Romnia i unele ri din Europa Central i de Est [5, 6].
Tabelul 1.3. Produse petrochimice de baz n 2007 [mii tone /an] elemente comparative [6]
ara Milioane locuitori Etilen Propilen LDPE HDPE OE/MEG P.S. PVC PP Ox. Alc. CAN P.O. TDI/MDI SBR Rusia Turcia Polonia Romnia Cehia Ungaria Serbia Bulgaria

The criteria for calculating the amount of crude oil processed in Romania today mainly consist in ensuring energy consumption, and only secondly in its chemical treatment. The forecast of crude oil, gasoline and ethane production is not at all encouraging for the period 2008-2015. Annual oil production will decline from 5.8 million tons to 4 million tons, gasoline production from 167 000 t to 109 000 t, and ethane production from 74,000 t to 42,000 t. Table 1.3 presents a comparison between the basic petrochemical products manufactured in Romania and some countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
Table 1.3. Basic petrochemicals in 2007 [thousand tons / year] - comparative elements [6]
Country Million of people Ethylene Propylene LDPE HDPE OE/MEG P.S. PVC PP Ox. Alc. CAN P.O. TDI/MDI SBR Russia Turky Poland Romania Czech Hungary Serbia Republic Bulgaria

150 2830 1260 548 500 250 170 130 300 150 50 60 -

64,3 400 182 180/400 60/90 100 197 80 60 92 -

38,7 660 330 155 110 411 115 167 25 40 130

22,5 200 126 80/40 30 24 160 60 55 80 20 150/40

10,3 485 280 134 90 135 250 75

10,1 350/650 290 120 200 165 330 285 60 -

10 200 80 45 40 40 45

8,3 450/250 200/92 71 20 100 49 80 20 28 35

150 2830 1260 548 500 250 170 130 300 150 50 60 -

64,3 400 182 180/400 60/90 100 197 80 60 92 -

38,7 660 330 155 110 411 115 167 25 40 130

22,5 200 126 80/40 30 24 160 60 55 80 20 150/40

10,3 485 280 134 90 135 250 75

10,1 350/650 290 120 200 165 330 285 60 -

10 200 80 45 40 40 45

8,3 450/250 200/92 71 20 100 49 80 20 28 35

21

Concluzia imediat care se poate trage n urma examinrii datelor din tabelul 1.3 este aceea c, n pofida tradiiei, experienei i a rezervelor proprii de petrol, Romnia se afl mult n urma unor ri care, pn mai ieri, dispuneau de capaciti reduse de rafinare i prelucrare: Ungaria, Cehia, Polonia, Bulgaria etc. Mai mult, ca urmare a uzurii fizice a instalaiilor, efectului de scar (capaciti sub limita economic), tehnologiilor nvechite, costului ridicat al materiilor prime i al energiei, productivitii sczute etc., produsele petrochimice indigene sunt adesea necompetitive nu numai pe piaa extern, dar i pe cea intern. Explicaii, de ordin politic, economic, social .a. se pot gsi cu duiumul. Dar o ntrebare rmne totui struitoare n contiina noastr: care ar fi fost situaia actual a petrochimiei romneti dac ea s-ar fi bucurat de aprecieri similare cu cele din Polonia, Ungaria sau Cehia? S revenim la realitate. Exportul de carburani i creterea masiv a importului de produse petrochimice pentru consumul intern explic gradul sczut de chimizare a petrolului n Romnia n ultimii ani. La o prelucrare de circa 13,4
22

The immediate conclusion that can be drawn after examining the data in Table 1.3 is that, despite our tradition, experience and our own oil reserves, Romania is far behind some countries that, not long ago, had a limited oil refining and processing capacity: Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Bulgaria, etc. Moreover, due to the physical wear of rigs, the scale effect (capacity below economic limit), obsolete technologies, high cost of raw materials and energy, low productivity, etc., indigenous petrochemicals are often uncompetitive not only on the domestic market but also on the external one. In order to explain this state of affairs, we could invoke a lot of factors (political, economic, social, etc). But a question still remains in our consciousness: which would Romanias petrochemical current state have been if the country had received the same appreciation as Poland, Hungary or the Czech Republic? Let's return to reality. The fuel exports and the massive increase in the imports of petrochemical products for domestic consumption explain the low degree of oil processing in Romania in recent years. The processing of

milioane t de iei pe an, din care importul reprezint aproximativ 9 milioane t/an, se obin circa 4,8 milioane t de benzin i 4,4 milioane t de motorin, adic un total de aproximativ 9,2 t de carburani de baz anual, din care se export circa 4,5 milioane t de benzin i motorin, iar restul de 4,7 milioane t de carburani se consum pe piaa intern din Romnia [6]. Este de subliniat i faptul c, din cele 9 milioane tone de petrol importat, se export 50 % sub form de carburani (cu un profit minor i discutabil, dac lum n considerare creterea continu a preului ieiului care a atins pe 11 iulie 2008 pragul critic de $ 147,27 pe baril!). Dac echivalentul n hidrocarburi al celor 4,5 milioane tone de carburani exportai s-ar prelucra n petrochimie, s-ar putea reduce importul de produse petrochimice care se ridic astzi la aproximativ 1,2 miliarde Euro /an pentru produse precum: cauciuc, amoniac, ngrminte chimice, metanol, sod caustic, sod calcinat, lacuri i vopsele, fire i fibre sintetice, anvelope etc. [6]. O parantez. Istoria explorrii platformei

about 13.4 million tons of crude oil per year, from which export represents only about 9 million tons per year, means obtaining about 4.8 million tons of gasoline and 4.4 million tons of diesel oil, whereas the remaining 4.7 million tons of fuels are consumed on the domestic market in Romania [6]. We should also emphasize the fact that out of the 9 million tons of imported oil, 50 % are exported as fuel (with a minor and questionable profit, if we take into consideration the continuous increase in oil prices which reached a critical threshold of $ 147.27 per barrel on the 11th of July, in 2008!). If the hydrocarbon equivalent of 4.5 million tons of exported fuels were processed in petrochemistry, we might reduce the import of petrochemicals amounting today to approximately 1.2 billion per year, for products such as rubber, ammonia, fertilizers, methanol, sodium hydroxide, calcinated soda, paints and varnishes, synthetic yarns and fibers and tires, etc. [6]. Let us mention now some historic landmarks of the exploration of the Romanian Black Sea continental shelf. It

continentale romneti a Mrii Negre marcheaz deja 34

23

de ani de la nregistrarea primelor seciuni seismice i 27 de ani de la sparea primului foraj de prospeciune. Pn n prezent au fost nsumai aproximativ 75 000 km de seciuni seismice, acoperind o suprafa de 33 160 km2. n acelai timp au fost spate peste 120 de sonde dintre care aproximativ 60 de sonde de cercetare geologic. De asemenea, obinerea n ultima lun a unor noi posibile perimetre exploatabile, la nivelul crora sunt deja cunoscute indicaii de hidrocarburi (structura Doina), cu debite de pn la 200 000 m3 gaze pe zi la adncimi de mai puin de 1500 m, pe arealul de 9 700 km2 aflat anterior n litigiu, au sporit gradul de interes pentru aceast zon. n figura 1.1 este prezentat harta perimetrelor de exploatare petrolifer din Romnia, cu detaliul aferent perimetrelor din Marea Neagr.

is 34 years since the first recording of seismic sections and 27 years since drilling the first prospecting well in this area. Up to now, there have been achieved approximately 75 000 km of seismic sections covering an area of 33,160 km2. At the same time, over 120 wells have been drilled, out of which about 60 are prospecting geological wells. At the same time, the interest in this area has increased because there have been recently discovered new potentially exploitable perimeters which already indicate the existence of Doina structured hydrocarbons with flows up to 200 000 m3 of gas per day at depths of less than 1500 m, in the area of 9 700 km2 which was previously in dispute. Figure 1.1 shows the map of the oil exploitation perimeters in Romania, with details of the perimeters of the Black Sea.

24

Fig. 1.1. Harta exploatrilor petrolifere din Romnia

Fig. 1.1. The map of oil exploitation in Romania

Structura geologic a platformei continentale dobrogene include acelea i unit i majore ca i uscatul adiacent: Orogenul Nord-Dobrogean, Bazinul Babadag i Platforma Moesic cu subdiviziunile sale, Dobrogea Central i Dobrogea Meridional (S ndulescu, 1984). Forma iunile sedimentare interceptate pn n prezent apar in intervalului Ordovician-Pliocen, forma iunile de interes pentru hidrocarburi fiind cele
25

The

geological

structure

of

the

Dobrogea

continental platform includes the same major units as the adjacent land: the orogenic North Dobrogea, the Babadag Basin and the Moesic Platform with its subdivisions, Central Dobrogea and Southern Dobrogea (S ndulescu, 1984). The sedimentary formations discovered so far belong to the Ordovician-Pliocene interval, while the formations containing hydrocarbons belong to

apar innd Cretacicului, Eocenului i Neogenului (prognozat). Din punct de vedere tectonic, arealul acvatorial continu structura uscatului, putnd fi puse n eviden structuri cu capcane legate de existen a varia iilor faciale i a faliilor care ecraneaz poten ialele rezervoare (fig. 1.2).

Cretaceous, Eocene and Neogen (according to some forecasts). As concerns the tectonic structure, the sea area continues the structure of the land displaying trapping structures related to the existence of facies variations and faults that shield potential reservoirs (Fig. 1.2).

Fig. 1.2. Arealul tectonic aferent Mrii Negre

Fig. 1.2. The tectonic area related to the Black Sea

Resursele de prognoz pot fi estimate la circa 25 000 000 t iei i circa 70 miliarde m3 gaze, dar pot varia n limite largi n funcie de limitrile tehnologice, n special adncimea fundului apei.
26

The forecast resources are estimated at about 25 million tons of crude oil and 70 billion m3 of gas, but can widely vary depending on the technological limitations, particularly on the depth of the sea bottom.

2.
PARTAJAREA DOMENIULUI OFFSHORE
Moto: La Terre devrait plutt s`appeler la Mer Yvonne Rebeyrol

2.
OFFSHORE DOMAIN SHARING
Moto: La Terre devrait plutt s`appeler la Mer Yvonne Rebeyrol

Volumul total al mrilor globului (1 362 200 000 km3) reprezint 97,3 % din apa Planetei. Apa de mare conine, n principal, urmtoarele elemente: clorur de sodiu: 35/1000 - n medie; 40/1000 - n Marea Roie; 30/1000 - n zonele septentrionale din Siberia; magneziu: 2 milioane de miliarde tone; potasiu: 600 000 miliarde tone; brom: 100 000 miliarde tone; cupru: 5 miliarde tone; uraniu: 5 miliarde tone; nichel: 3 miliarde tone; argint: 600 milioane tone; aur: 6 milioane tone.
27

The total volume of the Earths seas (1 362 200 000 km3) represents 97,3 % of the water on the planet. Sea water mostly contains the following elements: sodium chloride: 35/1000 - on average; 40/1000 in the Red Sea; 30/1000 - in the northern areas of Siberia ; magnesium: 2 million billion tons; potassium: 600 000 billion tons; bromine: 100 000 billion tons; copper: 5 billion tons; uranium : 5 billion tons ; nickel: 3 billion tons; silver: 600 million tons ; gold: 6 million tons.

Amintim c 71% din suprafaa globului (362 milioane km2) este acoperit de apele Oceanului. Din aceast suprafa total, platoului continental i revin 72 milioane km2, pantei continentale 73 milioane km2, iar domeniului oceanic - 217 milioane km2. n figura 2.1 sunt prezentate cteva caracteristici privitoare la partajarea domeniului offshore. Conform Conveniei privind drepturile asupra mrii (votat la 30 aprilie 1982 i semnat la 10 decembrie 1982), domeniul offshore a fost mprit n patru zone: A marea teritorial; B - zona de contiguitate (nvecinare); C zona economic exclusiv; D - apele internaionale. Marea teritorial. Msurat ctre larg ncepnd cu liniile de baz (basse mer), marea teritorial nu poate excede 12 mile marine (22,22 km). Statul cotier se bucur, n marea sa teritorial, de drepturi importante, dar nu este n ntregime suveran (precum n cazul apelor din interiorul rii); el este obligat s tolereze trecerea navelor strine (nave de rzboi care posed o autorizaie prealabil).

Let us remember that 71% of the Earths surface (362 million km2) is covered with oceans. Out of this total surface, the continental shelf represents 72 million km2, the continental slope 73 million km2 and the ocean area 217 million km2. In Figure 2.1 there are some characteristics regarding the sharing of the offshore field. According to the Convention on the Law of the Sea (voted on the 30th of April in 1982 and signed on the 10th of December in 1982), the offshore domain was divided into four zones: A - territorial sea; B - area of contiguity; C exclusive economic zone, D - international waters. The territorial sea. Measured from side to side starting with the baselines (basse mer), the territorial sea cannot exceed 12 nautical miles (22.22 km). The coastal state has important rights over its territorial sea, but it is not entirely sovereign (as in the case of inland water); it is forced to tolerate the passage of foreign ships (warships which have prior authorisation).

28

Onshore

Inshore

Medie Distan ir (rnd) Medie Adncime ir (rnd) ir (rnd) % din ocean

Linie de coast

Gradient Suprafa
Uscat

Offshore Marginea continental Plan abisal Prag Pant Treapt continental continental continental 65 - 100 15 - 30 km km 1 - 1200 15 - 100 0 - 600 km km km 133 m 1830 m Adncime 1000 1400 medie: 50 - 550 m 5000 m 5000 3795 m Adncime 0-1 2-6 maxim: 11304 m 6,7% 11% 3,1% 79,2%
Ape continentale Prag continental ccon Pant continental Treapt continental

Plan abisal

Fig. 2.1. Partajarea domeniului offshore [9]

Fig. 2.1. Offshore domain sharing [9]

Zona contigu (vecin). Cuprinde 12 mile marine, de la marea teritorial la zona economic exclusiv. Statul cotier poate exercita controale duaniere, fiscale, sanitare sau de imigrare, poate preveni sau reprima infraciunile conform reglementrilor n vigoare privitoare la teritoriul su naional sau la mrile sale teritoriale.
29

The area of contiguity. It contains 12 nautical miles from the territorial sea to the exclusive economic zone. The coastal state can exercise customs, fiscal, sanitary or immigration controls, can prevent or suppress crime according to the enforcement of regulations regarding its national territory or its territorial sea.

Zona economic exclusiv . Cuprinde 188 mile marine, de la mrile teritoriale la apele internaionale. Statul cotier se bucur de drepturi suverane i exclusive asupra resurselor vii i minerale ale apelor, solului i subsolului. El dispune, de asemenea, de diverse drepturi care i permit s previn i s combat poluarea mrii, respectiv s reglementeze cercetarea tiin ific pentru zona respectiv. Sunt libere, totodat , naviga ia i survolul. Cel mai adesea, 200 de mile corespund platoului continental. Dac platoul continental dep e te 200 de mile, limita sa juridic exterioar se va fixa astfel: fie la distan a de 350 de mile (648,2 km) (maximum) de la cot; fie la distan a de 100 de mile (185,2 km), msurat ctre larg, plecndu-se de la izobata de 2500 m; fie la linia unde grosimea sedimentelor acumulate pe taluz este egal cu cel pu in o sutime din distan a dintre aceast linie i piciorul taluzului
30

The exclusive economic zone. It contains 188 nautical miles from the territorial sea to the international sea. The coastal state has exclusive and sovereign rights over the living and mineral resources of the sea, soil and subsoil. It has also various rights that enable it to prevent and combat the pollution of the sea as well as to regulate the scientific research for the respective area. Navigation and overflight are also permitted. Most often, 200 miles correspond to the continental shelf. If the continental shelf is more than 200 miles, its exterior legal limit is established as follows: either at the distance of 350 miles (648.2 km) (maximum) from the mark; or at a distance of 100 miles (185.2 km), measured towards the high sea, and starting from the 2500 m isobath; or at the line where the thickness of the accumulated sediments on the talus at least equals a hundredth of the distance between this line and the

continental. Apele interna ionale. n principiu, n aceast zon oricine poate circula liber, survola, poate efectua cercet ri tiin ifice i pescui f r restricii. Totu i, n cadrul Conven iei , Zona (patrimoniu comun al umanitii) este gerat de a a numita Autoritate. Aceast autoritate va elibera licen e de explorare investitorilor pionieri. n aceast categorie intr , pe de o parte, Fran a, Japonia, India - sau una dintre ntreprinderile lor publice sau private - iar pe de alt parte, cele patru consor ii internaionale n cadrul crora societ ile americane, germane, belgiene, britanice i italiene au o pondere determinant . Observaie: Cine poate deveni, totui, investitorpionier? Condiiile de baz cerute presupun urmtoarele: - s fi investit cel pu in 30 milioane de dolari nainte de 1 ianuarie 1983; - s se g seasc, pentru consorii, printre rile de origine ale membrilor lor, unul sau mai multe state semnatare ale Conven iei, pentru certificare.
31

continental talus. International waters. In principle, in this area anyone can move freely, can overfly, can undertake scientific research and fish without restrictions. Nevertheless, according to the Convention, the Zone (common patrimony of humanity) is managed by the socalled Authority. This authority will issue exploration licenses to the pioneer investors. On the one hand, this category includes France, Japan and India or one of their public or private companies, and on the other hand the four international consortia in which American, German, Belgian, British and Italian companies hold a significant share. Remark: However, who can become a pioneer investor? The basic requirements are: - to have invested at least $ 30 million before the 1st of January 1983; - to find, for consortia, one or more signatories of the Convention among the countries of origin of their members, for certification.

Totodat , pentru rile n curs de dezvoltare care au semnat Conven ia, condi ia de investitor pionier presupune s se fi investit, n studiul diverselor module, 30 de milioane de dolari nainte de 1 ianuarie 1989.

At the same time, for the developing countries which have signed the Convention, the condition of a pioneer investor requires having invested $ 30 million in the study of various modules before the 1st of January 1989.

32

3.
FORAJUL N APE ADNCI I ULTRA ADNCI GENERALITI
Un volum important de resurse de petrol se afl n zonele situate n ape adnci i foarte adnci, la limita de adncime a activitilor actuale (experiena ultimilor 10 ani ne arat c, odat atins un record de operare n ceea ce privete adncimea apei, acesta este imediat depit precum n sport!). Sunt considerate ape adnci, din punctul de vedere al activitii petrolifere, apele cu adncimi mai mari de 400 m, iar ultra adnci cele care depesc 1 500 m (peste 1 600 m dup MMS [9]). Operatorii din industria extractiv de petrol se orienteaz tot mai mult ctre adncimile mari de ap deoarece aici se afl resurse importante care asigur producii mari. Unele sonde din aceste zone petrolifere pot
33

3.
DRILLING IN DEEP AND ULTRA DEEP WATER GENERAL PRESENTATION
A significant amount of oil resources are located in deep and very deep water areas, at the depth limit of current activities (our experience over the last ten years shows that, once a record for operating at a certain water depth has been reached, it is immediately broken - as in sports!). In terms of oil activity, deep water refers to depths exceeding 400 m, and ultra deep water refers to depths exceeding 1500 m (over 1600 m after MMS [9]). Oil extraction operators are increasingly oriented towards great water depths because there are important resources that ensure high levels of oil production. Some oil wells in these areas can produce 8000 m3 of oil per day,

produce 8 000 m3 iei/zi, fapt care justific cheltuielile suplimentare i riscurile asumate. Proiectele de exploatare aferente locaiilor situate la adncimi de ap de peste 2 000 m din Golful Mexic, Offshore Brazilia i vestul Africii erau de neimaginat acum 15 20 de ani. n ultima vreme ns s-au forat mai multe sonde la adncimi mari de ap, recordul de 3 050 m fiind depit la sfritul anului 2 003, n Golful Mexic. Noile tehnologii permit exploatarea petrolului din zone situate la distane mari de uscat, uneori de peste 200 mile marine (circa 370,6 km). Aceasta presupune, desigur, construcia unor platforme mari i complexe, modificarea procedurilor de foraj existente i aplicarea unor noi reglementri de mediu. Ca urmare a numrului mare de prospeciuni geologice i geofizice, atractive economic, n zone cu adncimi mari de ap, cele mai multe instalaii de foraj sunt contractate pe termen lung de ctre diferiii operatori din domeniul complex al explorrii i exploatrii zcmintelor de petrol i gaze. Creterea adncimilor de
34

which justifies the additional costs and risks. Projects for exploiting the areas located at a depth of over 2000 m in the Gulf of Mexico, offshore Brazil and West Africa were unimaginable 15-20 years ago. Recently, however, wells have been drilled at greater depths, the record of 3050 m being broken in the Gulf of Mexico at the end of 2003. New technologies allow oil exploitation in areas situated far away from the shore, sometimes at over 200 sea miles (approximately 370.6 km). This implies, however, the construction of large and complex platforms, the modification of the existing drilling procedures and the application of new environmental regulations. Due to a large number of economically attractive geological and geophysical prospecting at great water depths, most long-term drilling installations are used by various operators in the complex sector of oil and gas exploration and exploitation. The increase in water depths has entailed the re-technologization of a large number of

ap a condus la re-tehnologizarea unui numr important de instalaii de foraj, ca i la construirea altora noi. Cele mai importante schimbri n privina programelor de construcie ale acestor sonde sunt legate att de adncimile mari de ap, ct i de condiiile de fund, mediul ostil .a., n care se desfoar activitatea: valuri de peste 30 m nlime; vnturi care ating 80 noduri (148,2 km/h); temperaturi ale aerului de -15 C; temperatura ale apei mrii sub 0 C; cureni marini de 3 noduri (5,5 km/h); prezena aisbergurilor (n anumite zone ale Canadei, Groenlanda etc.); prezena frecvent a zpezii, ploii sau ceii etc. n zonele cu ape adnci, activitatea de foraj se poate realiza numai cu ajutorul platformelor marine semisubmersibile, poziionate dinamic, i al vaselor de foraj. Aa cum am mai amintit, cu ajutorul platformelor ancorate, convenionale, s-a forat i n zone cu ape adnci de 1836 m, n Golful Mexic. n alte pri ale globului, condiiile pot fi ns diferite de cele din Golful Mexic, iar prezena curenilor de fund face dificil managementul
35

drilling installations, as well as the construction of new ones. The most important changes in the construction programmes of these wells are equally connected with great water depths, bottom conditions, hostile environment and others, as well as to the conditions in which they operate: waves over 30 feet high, winds which reach 80 knots (148.2 km / h), air temperatures of -15 C, temperatures of sea water below 0 C, marine currents of 3 knots (5.5 km / h), the presence of icebergs (in some areas of Canada, Greenland, etc.) frequent presence of snow, rain or fog, etc. In deep water areas, drilling activities can be achieved only by means of offshore semi-submersible platforms, which are dynamically positioned, and of drilling vessels. As we have already mentioned, drilling operations were performed in deep water areas of 1836 m in the Gulf of Mexico by using conventional anchored platforms. In other parts of the world, the conditions may be different from those in the Gulf of Mexico, and the presence of the

sistemului de raizere. Pentru meninerea poziiei sub efectul aciunii curenilor mari, respectiv pentru a stoca volumul suplimentar de noroi, ca i raizerele necesare pentru construcia sondei, sunt cerute, tot mai des, platforme largi, cu putere disponibil suplimentar. ntruct operaiile i echipamentele sunt diferite de cele utilizate n cazul apelor puin adnci, regulamentele, standardele i procedurile aferente nu pot fi aplicate direct n cea mai mare parte a operaiilor specifice apelor adnci. Sigurana sondei, a operaiilor, ca i testarea formaiunilor sunt fundamental diferite n raport cu echipamentele de fund care vor fi utilizate n zonele cu ape adnci. Evoluia, n timp, a adncimii maxime de ap pentru forajele de explorare i producie este prezentat n figura 3.1.

bottom currents makes the riser system management difficult. In order to maintain the position under the effect of the action of high currents, namely to store the additional volume of mud, as well as the risers necessary for the construction of the well, more often, large platforms, endowed with additional available power, are required. As the equipment and operations are different from those used for shallow water, regulations, standards and procedures cannot be applied directly to the most part of the operations specific to deep water. The safety of the well and operations, as well as the testing of formations is fundamentally different from those characteristic of the bottom equipment that will be used in deep water areas. The evolution over time of the maximum water depth for exploration and production drilling operations is shown in Figure 3.1.

36

Fig. 3.1. Evoluia, n timp, a adncimilor maxime de ap pentru forajele de explorare i producie [11]

Fig. 3.1. The evolution over time of the maximum water depth for exploratory and production drilling operations [11]

Cteva dintre cele mai importante direc ii de activitate, care trebuie avute n vedere pentru forajul n zonele cu ape adnci, se refer la [9, 11]: proceduri pentru prevenirea i combaterea manifestrilor eruptive n timpul forajului; cercetri privind cre terea rezisten ei materialelor i reducerea greut ii lor; metode de control ale hidrailor ce pot apare n timpul operaiilor la sondele care foreaz n zone cu adncimi
37

Some of the most important directions of activity to be considered when drilling in deep water areas refer to [9, 11]: procedures for preventing and combating eruptive events during drilling; research on increasing the strength of materials and reducing their weight; methods of controlling hydrates that may occur during deep water drilling operations; methods of controlling paraffins during deep water drilling operations; research

mari de ap ; metode de control al parafinelor pentru operaiile din sondele cu adncime mare de ap ; cercet ri cu privire la integritatea conductelor amplasate la mare adncime de ap ; modelarea for elor care ac ioneaz asupra structurilor i conductelor n apele adnci; analiza comportamental n cazul polu rilor cu iei i msurile de evaluare a manifestrilor eruptive de fund etc. Un volum mare de informa ii este achiziionat n faza exploratorie. Acesta este legat att de natura geologic, forajul propriu-zis i probele de produc ie, ct i de informa iile legate de mediu curen i marini, valuri, viteza vnturilor etc. O analiz atent a sondelor forate n ape cu adncimi mari (fig. 3.2), referitoare la ponderea operaiile de foraj, ca durat, scoate n eviden faptul c echipamentului de manevr i revine 55 % din totalul operaiilor (mobilizare, manevre ale materialului tubular, mar uri, introducerea coloanelor de burlane etc.).
38

on the integrity of pipelines located at great water depths; modelling the forces acting on structures and pipelines in deep water; behavioural analysis in case of oil pollution and measures to evaluate the eruptive events at the bottom, etc.

A great deal of information is acquired during the exploratory stage. This is related to both geological nature, that is to say drilling proper and production tests, and the environmental information marine currents, waves, wind speed, etc. A careful analysis of the wells drilled at great water depths (Fig. 3.2), which refers to the preponderance of drilling operations in terms of duration, points out that the operating equipment is 55 % of the of total the of operations (mobilization, trips, the manoeuvres tubular material,

introduction of column pipes, etc.).

Totodat , colectarea datelor n faza exploratorie duce la salvarea unor importante costuri n etapa de exploatare, chiar i atunci cnd viitoarele foraje se amplaseaz n zone ndep rtate de forajul de explorare (pentru cele mai multe proiecte, costul forajelor de explorare reprezint circa 50 60 % din costul total al proiectului).

Furthermore,

collecting

data

during

the

exploratory phase leads to saving significant costs during the operational phase, even when future wells are located far from the exploration drilling area (for most projects, the cost of development drilling is 50 - 60 % of the total project cost).

Fig. 3.2. Analiza ponderii operaiilor de foraj [12]

Fig. 3.2. Analysis of drilling operation preponderance [12]

39

Aceasta va constitui una dintre direciile de aciune pentru creterea eficienei platformelor. Mai mult, seria actual de platforme (generaia a-6-a) este dotat cu echipamente de foraj automate i activitate dual, sisteme performante de propulsie, modele noi de raizere etc.

This will be one of the directions of action in order to increase the efficiency of oil platforms. Moreover, the current set of platforms (the 6th generation) is equipped with automatic drilling equipment and dual activity, performant systems of propulsion, new riser models, etc.

40

4.
ACTIVITATEA DE FORAJ 4.1. Generaliti
Sistemul complex de exploatare a zcmintelor de hidrocarburi este format din dou mari elemente definite tot ca sistem: activitatea aferent punerii n eviden de noi rezerve, n care forajul de cercetare geologic este determinant i activitatea de exploatare propriu-zis, n care forajul de exploatare constituie imput-ul. n acest context, forajul se mparte, n funcie de obiectiv, n foraj geologic (activitatea de cercetare, investigarea geologic i geofizic) i foraj de exploatare. Forajul geologic are ca obiectiv obinerea unui sistem informaional eficient necesar caracterizrii complete a formaiunilor traversate, att sub aspect calitativ ct i cantitativ. Cu ct volumul de date obinute prin investigare
41

4.
THE DRILLING ACTIVITY 4.1. General Presentation
The complex system of exploiting hydrocarbon deposits is made up of two great elements that are also defined by means of the term system: the activity related to highlighting new reserves, in which geological research drilling is essential and the exploitation activity proper, in which exploitation drilling is the input. In this context, the drilling activity is divided, according to the objective, in geological drilling (the research activity, the geological and geophysical investigation) and exploitation drilling. Geological drilling aims at obtaining an efficient information system necessary for the thorough characterization of the crossed formations in terms of both quality and quantity. The larger the amount of data obtained from the

geologic (carote mecanice, probe de producie etc.) este mai mare, cu att sistemul informaional geologic va fi mai eficient. Sub aspect calitativ, sistemului informaional geologic i se impun dou cerine: precizia datelor i a vitezelor de prelucrare i de transmitere. Aceste dou aspecte lucrri ale sistemului informaional geologic se ntreptrund i au ca efect imediat volumul optim de geologice, respectiv investiiile necesare descoperirii de noi rezerve. n condiiile forajului geologic, activitatea de foraj nu poate fi supus unei normri riguroase, unei retribuiri n funcie de metrul forat, deoarece necunoaterea factorului geologic face imposibil fundamentarea tiinific a normelor de timp. Forajul de cercetare geologic impune i cercetarea sistemelor tehnice i tehnologice astfel ca, prin intermediul sistemelor informaionale adecvate, s se creeze premisele desfurrii forajului de exploatare n condiii de stpnire a factorului natural i de optimizare a factorilor tehnici i a tehnologiei de lucru. Beneficiarul forajului geologic
42

geological investigation is (mechanical core, production tests, etc.) the more efficient the information system will be. Qualitatively, there are two requirements for the geological information system: the accuracy of data and the speed of data processing and transmission. These two aspects of the geological information system overlap and have as an immediate effect the optimum volume of geological works, namely the investments necessary for discovering new reserves. In the case of geological drilling, the drilling activity cannot be subjected to rigorous standardization, to remuneration based on drilled meters, because the fact that the geological factor is not known makes it impossible to found time norms on scientific principles. Geological research drilling also requires the study of technical and technological systems so that, by means of adequate information systems, we can create the premises for performing exploitation drilling activities while controlling the natural factor and optimizing the technical factors and the working technology. The beneficiary of

geologul trebuie s subordoneze activitatea de foraj obiectivului urmrit: efort minim (numr minim de locaii) i efect maxim (creterea volumului de rezerve de hidrocarburi). Forajul de exploatare are ca obiectiv realizarea unei construcii perfecte din punct de vedere hidrodinamic, cu un cost ct mai redus, n vederea optimizrii investi iilor aferente exploatrii propriuzise. O construc ie perfect din punct de vedere hidrodinamic impune o leg tur de sistem ntre forajul propriu-zis i punerea n produc ie a sondei. Astfel, de modul travers rii i investig rii stratului productiv va depinde comportarea n exploatare a fiecrei sonde, cumulativul de i ei extras i investi ia aferent construc iei de sond. Forajul de exploatare se desfoar n condiiile unui sistem aproape deterministic, beneficiind de stpnirea factorului geologic, de posibilitatea optimizrii condiiilor tehnice i tehnologice, de posibilitatea unei organizri riguroase a produciei i a muncii. Astfel,
43

geological drilling the geologist must subordinate the drilling activity to the following target: minimum effort (minimum number of sites) and maximum effect (increasing the volume of hydrocarbon reserves). Exploitation drilling aims at making a perfect construction from the hydrodynamic point of view, with the lowest possible cost, in order to optimize the investments in the exploitation proper. A perfect construction from the hydrodynamic point of view requires a systemic connection between the drilling operation proper and putting the well into production. Thus, the functioning of each well during the exploitation period, the cumulative extracted crude oil and the investment in the construction of the well will depend on the way in which the productive layer is crossed/ drilled and investigated. Exploitation drilling is carried out under an almost deterministic system, benefitting from the control of the geological factor, the possibility of optimizing the technical and technological conditions, and the opportunity to organize work and production rigorously. Thus, the

fundamentarea tiinific a proiectrii construciilor de sonde face posibil att fundamentarea tiinific a normelor de timp aferente forajului de exploatare, ct i i programarea riguroas a desfurrii tuturor operaiilor conform unei diagrame de foraj (graficul tehnologic al forajului).

scientific base of designing well constructions enables both the scientific base of the time norms related to exploitation drilling and the rigorous planning of all operations, according to a drilling diagram (technological chart of drilling).

4.2. Structura general a procesului de f o r a r e a so n d e l o r

n figura 4.1 este prezentat structura general a procesului de forare a sondelor. Realizarea unui model matematic privind procesul de forare a sondelor pleac de la premisa c poate fi acceptat, pentru proces, schema structural derivat din tabelul 4.1, iar politica economic justific adoptarea, n principal, a costului drept criteriu de optimizare. De asemenea, se accept c subsistemele 1, 2 i 9 din tabelul 4.1 nu sunt influenate de regimul de lucru din celelalte subsisteme dar influeneaz, prin costul lor, costul procesului general.
44

4.2. The General Structure of the WellDr il li ng Pro c e ss

Figure 4.1 shows the general structure of the welldrilling process. Making a mathematic model for the well-drilling process starts from the premise that the structural scheme derived from table 4.1 can be accepted and that the economic policy justifies adopting the cost as an optimization criterion. At the same time, it is accepted that subsystems 1, 2 and 9 from table 4.1 are not influenced by the working status of the other subsystems, but that they influence the cost of the overall process, through their cost.

Tabelul 4.1. Structura general a procesului de forare a sondelor

Nr. Denumirea crt. sistemului 1 Pregtirea locaiei 2 3 Montaj Forajul sondei Denumirea proceselor componente Pregtirea locaiei Pregtirea drumurilor de acces Transportul instalaiei i al utilajelor Montaj Probe de montaj Dislocarea la talp Circulaia fluidului Manevra materialului tubular Antrenarea dispozitivului de dislocare Curirea fluidelor Pregtirea pentru consolidare Tubaj Cimentare Verificarea consolidrii Probe mecanice i de urmrire Cercetare electro-radio-sonometric Teste de dislocare Experimente Prevenire Combatere Traversarea formaiunilor productive Perforarea formaiunilor productive Probe de producie Aprovizionare continu Aprovizionare accidental Demontaj Proiecte informare Decizii de adaptare Reglare Crt. No. 1 2 3

Table 4.1. The general structure of the well-drilling process

Name of the system Preparation of site Rigging up Well-drilling

Name of the process components Preparation of the site Preparation of access roads Transport of installation and equipment Rigging up Rigging up tests Bottom Dislocation Fluid circulation Trip of the tubular material Setting the dislocation system in motion Cleaning the fluids Preparation for consolidation Casing Cementing Consolidation check Mechanical and surveillance tests Electro-radio-sound level meter research Dislocation tests Experiments Preventing Combating Crossing productive formations Perforation of productive formations Production tests Continuous supply Occasional supply Rigging down Projects - information Adaptation decisions Adjustment

Consolidarea sondei

Well consolidation

Cercetarea tehnic

geologo-

Geological and technical research Preventing and combating complications Opening of layers - tests Technical supply Rigging down System management

6 7 8 9 1 0

Prevenirea i combaterea complicaiilor Deschideri de strate probe Aprovizionarea tehnic Demontaj Managementul sistemului

6 7 8 9 10

Scopul modelului matematic este acela de a permite proiectarea regimului de foraj optim la forarea fiecrei sonde de petrol i gaze. Modelul se limiteaz la sonda de
45

The purpose of the mathematic model is to allow the designing of the optimum drilling regime for drilling each oil and gas well. The model is limited to the well and must

foraj

trebuie

in

seama

de

relaiile

de

take into account the interdependencies among subsystems. Of course, the complexity of the system requires finding the best drilling management team (Fig. 4.1).

interdependen dintre subsisteme. Desigur, complexitatea sistemului va impune i gsirea echipei optime de management al forajului (fig. 4.1).

Fig. 4.1. Echipa de management al forajului

Fig. 4.1. The drilling management team

46

5.
ELEMENTE DE EFICIEN ECONOMIC N ACTIVITATEA DE FORAJ
Eficiena tehnico-economic a activitii de foraj se apreciaz cu ajutorul unor mrimi absolute sau relative denumite indicatori ai forajului. Acetia pot fi calitativi sau cantitativi. Indicatorii calitativi se refer la obinerea unor caliti sau scopuri specifice: evitarea contaminrii sau degradrii caracteristicilor fizico-chimice ale stratelor productive; alegerea corespunztoare a fluidelor de foraj, respectiv stabilirea unor valori adecvate pentru densitate, vscozitate, alcalinitate, limitele de curgere .a.; pstrarea, n limite admisibile, a devierii sondei; realizarea de investigaii geologo-geofizice de calitate;
47

5.
ELEMENTS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF DRILLING OPERATIONS
The technical and economic efficiency of drilling operations is evaluated by using absolute or relative values called drilling indicators. These can be qualitative or quantitative. Qualitative indicators refer to achieving specific goals or qualities: avoiding the contamination or degradation of physical and chemical characteristics of productive layers; the appropriate selection of drilling fluids, namely the establishment of appropriate values for density, viscosity, alkalinity, flow limits, etc.; maintaining the deviation of the well within reasonable limits; carrying out high quality geological-geophysical investigations;

 atingerea obiectivului final fr avarii sau complicaii; realizarea unei exploatri raionale, n condiii optime, sub aspect tehnic i economic. Indicatorii cantitativi sunt mrimi fizico-chimice, mecanice sau economice care evideniaz consumurile de materiale, energie, timpi, volume, numr de produse, viteze, costuri etc. Alegerea criteriului de optimizare este o problem esenial n cadrul proiectrii oricrui sistem. Se apreciaz c, destul de rar, conducerea unui sistem ia n considerare un singur criteriu. n majoritatea cazurilor se urmrete optimizarea dup dou sau mai multe criterii.

achieving final objectives without damage or complications; achieving a rational exploitation, in optimal conditions, from a technical and economic point of view. Quantitative indicators are physical and chemical, mechanical or economic values which refer to the consumption of materials, energy, time, volume, number of products, speed, costs, etc. The choice of the optimization criterion is a key issue in designing any system. It is estimated that, quite rarely, the management of a system takes into consideration a single criterion. In most cases, optimization according to two or more criteria is aimed at.

Viteza mecanic
Matematic, n valoare absolut, viteza mecanic medie pe sap
vm = h , ts

Mechanical Speed
As a mathematical absolute value, the average speed of the bit is (5.1)
vm = h , ts

(5.1)

unde h este adncimea iar ts - timpul de lucru efectiv al sapei pe talp (timpul de spare).
48

where h is the depth and ts - the real operating time of the bottom hole (drilling time).

Intrinsec, viteza mecanic este o funcie complex, care depinde nu numai de h i ts ci

v m = f (G s , n, v j , Q, h, t s , Ds , co , K , D, f , f , 0 , F ) ,

Intrinsically, the mechanical speed is a complex function that depends not only on h and ts but also on

(5.2)

v m = f (G s , n, v j , Q, h, t s , Ds , co , K , D, f , f , 0 , F ) ,

(5.2)

n care: Gs este apsarea pe sap; n - turaia; vj viteza jeturilor de fluid; Q - debitul de fluid; Ds - diametrul sapei; co - rezistena la compresiune a rocii; K coeficientul de abrazivitate al rocii; D - uzura sapei; f, f, 0, F - caracteristicile fluidului de foraj (densitate, vscozitate, tensiune dinamic de forfecare, filtrare). n general, efectele acestor factori se intercondiioneaz i nu pot fi ntotdeauna individualizate. Exist, n schimb, numeroase observaii de antier i cercetri de laborator ale cror rezultate sunt, n prezent, mult mai convingtoare.

where: Gs is the weight on the drill bit; n rotation; vj - speed of fluid jets; Q fluid flow; Ds drill bit diameter; co - rock resistance to compression; K - rock abrasion coefficient; D drill bit wear; f, f, 0, F - drilling fluid characteristics (density, viscosity, dynamic shear tension, filtering). In general, the effects of these factors are interrelated and cannot always be individualized. There are, however, many drilling site observations and laboratory research whose results now are much more convincing.

49

Viteza operativ
Viteza operativ v0 ia n considerare i timpii necesari introducerii, extragerii i schimbrii sapei, adugrii bucilor de avansare, tratrii i omogenizrii fluidului de foraj, corectrii pereilor gurii de sond, manevrelor din timpul forajului .a., ntr-un cuvnt tm. Desigur, ponderea principal o are timpul de manevr a garniturii (de aceea, simplificat, se spune c tm reprezint timpul de manevr). Aadar,
h h . = t0 t s + tm

Operational Speed
The operational speed v0 takes into consideration the time needed to introduce, extract and change the drilling bit, to add singles, to treat and homogenize the drilling fluid, to correct the sheath of oil wells and the manoeuvres during the drilling process, etc., in a word, tm. Of course, the manoeuvre time of the drill string has the main role (and therefore, to put it simply, it is said that tm is the manoeuvre time). Therefore,
h h . = t0 t s + tm

v0 =

(5.3)

v0 =

(5.3)

Criteriul este preferabil atunci cnd rapiditatea execuiei constituie un factor esenial (de exemplu, la forajul de exploatare pentru creterea rapid a produciei de hidrocarburi, la sondelor de salvare sau la cele de alimentare cu ap .a.). Utilitatea acestui indicator const n faptul c, prin
50

The criterion is preferable when the execution velocity is an essential factor (for example, in the case of exploitation drilling to quickly increase the production of hydrocarbons, in the case of safety wells or of water supply wells, etc.). The usefulness of this indicator consists in the fact

intermediul su, se poate stabili timpul optim de lucru al sapei pe talp. n acest scop se pune condiia ca viteza operativ s fie optim, adic
h h = max. = t0 t s + tm

that it can determine the optimum operating time of the bottom hole. For this purpose, the condition is that the operational speed be optimal, i.e.
h h = max. = t0 t s + tm

v0 =

v0 =

Viteza tehnic
Viteza tehnic reprezint avansarea total H, ce ar putea fi realizat ntr-o lun de o instalaie montat pe poziie, dac s-ar efectua numai operaiile productive necesare:
720 H Tp

Technical Speed
H is the total advancement of the technical speed that could be achieved by an installed drilling rig during a month, if the necessary production operations were performed:
720 H Tp

vt =

[m / ILp ] .

(5.4)

vt =

[m / ILp ] .

(5.4)

Semnificaii: 720 reprezint numrul mediu de ore dintr-o lun (24 ore/zi x 30 zile = 720 ore); Tp timpul productiv, n ore, referitor la: spare, manevr, msurarea devierii, investigarea gurii de sond, probarea stratelor, carotaje mecanice, maruri de control, tubare, cimentare,
51

Meanings: 720 is the average number of hours a month (24 hours / day x 30 days = 720 hours); Tp that is the productive time in hours referring to: drilling, manoeuvering, deviation measurement, investigation of the oil well/oil well investigation, layer testing, mechanical

perforarea coloanelor de burlane, revizii ale instalaiei, schimbarea cablului de foraj, msuri de prevenire i combatere a dificultilor n foraj .a.; ILp instalaie lun productiv.

coring, control trips, tubing, cementing, boring pipe columns, revision of the oil installation, change of the cable drilling, measures to prevent and control drilling difficulties, etc.; ILp the drilling installation per productive month.

Viteza comercial (de lucru sau fizic)

Viteza comercial exprim avansarea total efectiv H realizat ntr-o lun de ctre o instalaie montat:
720 H Tc

Commercial Speed Commercial speed expresses a month:

the

actual

total

advancement H achieved by an installed drilling rig during

720 H Tc

vc =

[m / ILL],

(5.5)

vc =

[m / ILL],

(5.5)

unde:
Tc = T p + Tm ,

where: (5.6)
Tc = T p + Tm ,

(5.6)

relaii n care: Tc este timpul calendaristic, ore; Tn timpul neproductiv, n ore, compus din opriri tehnice (rezolvarea unor accidente sau complicaii, reparaii la instalaie sau anexele acesteia .a.) i opriri organizatorice (lips de burlane, ciment, sape, combustibil,
52

relationships in which: Tc is the calendar time, expressed in hours; Tn the unproductive time, expressed in hours and composed of technical stops (resolution of accidents or complications, repairs of installation or of its annexes, etc.) and of organizational stops (lack of pipes, cement, bits, fuel,

materiale pentru prepararea fluidului de foraj etc.); ILL instalaie lun n lucru.

materials for preparation of the drilling fluid, etc.); ILL the drilling installation operating during a month.

Viteza ciclic
Viteza ciclic exprim avansarea total efectiv H realizat ntr-o lun de o instalaie montat, prin luarea n considerare i a timpului necesar montrii i demontrii acesteia:
vciclica = 720 H Tciclic

Cyclical Speed
The cyclical speed expresses the actual total advancement H achieved by an installed drilling rig during a month, also taking into account the time required for installing and dismantling it:

[m / ILL],

(5.7)

vciclica =

720 H Tciclic

[m / ILL],

(5.7)

unde Tciclic este exprimat n ore i este compus din timpul calendaristic i timpul pentru montaje - demontaje. Viteza ciclic poate fi calculat pe o sond sau pe ntreaga unitate de foraj. n acest din urm caz, viteza ciclic
vciclica = m , IAA

where Tcyclical is expressed in hours and consists of the calendar time and the time needed to rig up and down. The cyclical speed can be calculated for a well or the entire drilling unit. In the latter case, the cyclical speed is
vciclica = m , IAA

(5.8)

(5.8)

unde IAA este indicatorul instalaie an activ.

where IAA is the indicator of the active installation during one year.

53

Costul mediu pe metru forat

a. Costul mediu pe metru forat pentru o sap:
cm = cs + c ff + c i (t s + t m ) h [lei / m] ,

The Average Cost per Drilled Meter

a. The average cost per meter drilled by a bit
cm = cs + c ff + c i (t s + tm ) h [lei / m] ,

(5.9)

(5.9)

n care: cs reprezint costul unei sape, lei; cff costul fluidului de foraj, lei; ci costul orar al instalatiei i personalului de execuie, lei/or. Note. 1. Relaia (5.9) rmne valabil i pentru cazul n care se apreciaz eficienta forajului pe un interval H; n acest caz se ine seama de numrul de sape n aferent intervalului respectiv. 2. Adeseori, costul cff este inclus n ci. Expresia (5.9) poate fi scris i sub forma:
cm = a s + a f + C , vo

where: cs represents the cost of a bit in lei; cff cost of drilling fluid in lei; ci hourly cost of drilling installation and executive staff, expressed in lei per hour. Notes. 1. Relation (5.9) also remains valid for the case in which drilling effectiveness is estimated for an interval H; in this case, the number of bits n related to this interval is taken into account. 2. The cost cff is often included in ci. The expression (5.9) can be written as: (5.10)
cm = a s + a f + C , vo

(5.10)

54

n care: as reprezint costul unitar al sapei, lei/m; af costul unitar al fluidului de foraj, lei/m; C costul pe instalaie zi n lucru, lei/Izi; vo viteza operativ, m/Izi. b. Costul mediu al metrului forat pe ntreaga sond:
Cm = Cs' + Cmd + C f + Ctc + Ca + C pp + Ci' Tc H

where as is the unit cost of the bit in lei / m; af unit cost of drilling fluid lei / m; C cost of drilling installation per working day; vo operational speed, m/I per day. b. The average cost of a drilled meter per entire well:
Cm = C s' + Cmd + C f + Ctc + Ca + C pp + Ci' Tc H

(5.11)

(5.11)

n care: Cs Cmd Cf Ctc Ca este costul lucrrilor de suprafa, lei; costul lucrrilor de montaj-demontaj, lei; costul forajului propriu-zis, lei; costul operaiilor de tubare i cimentare, lei; costul operaiilor auxiliare (msurarea

where Cs is the cost of surface operations in lei; Cmd cost of assembling-disassembling/ rigging in and out operations in lei; Cf cost of actual drilling in lei; Ctc cost of casing and cementing operations in lei; Ca cost of auxiliary operations (deviation measurement, geophysical investigations, drilling columns, testing layers, etc.), expressed in lei; Cpp cost of putting into production (sometimes the calculation of this value is done separately), in lei; Ci hourly cost per drilling installation, in lei per hour;

devierii, investigaii geofizice, perforarea coloanelor, probarea stratelor etc.), lei; Cpp Ci costul punerii n producie (uneori, calcul costul orar pe instalaie, inclusiv energia, lei/or;
55

acestei mrimi se efectueaz separat), lei;

Tc timpul total calendaristic, ore; H adncimea, m. Costul metrului forat constituie, n fapt, indicatorul sintetic de exprimare a eficienei economice. ntr-un anume sens, costul unitar reprezint o generalizare a celorlalte criterii. El permite alegerea valorilor optime ale parametrilor regimului mecanic de foraj (apsarea Gs i turaia n) prin minimizarea expresiei costului unitar. n literatura de specialitate [2, 9-12] sunt prezentate, detaliat, diverse metode de optimizare a parametrilor mecanici de foraj, multe dintre ele avnd la baz criteriul costului minim pe metru forat. Iat cteva dintre aceste metode: Galle Woods, Preston Moore, Young Don Murphy, Young Bourgoyne, Orlov, Pogarski, Langston, ICPPG Cmpina .a. n afara criteriului costului minim pe metru forat se mai admit, frecvent, drept criterii de optimizare: criteriul vitezei operative maxime pe mar, criteriul vitezei mecanice limitate, criteriul vitezei operative maxime pe sond, criteriul metrajului maxim pe sap. Aceste criterii au fost stabilite n funcie de descrierea dat procesului de ctre autorii metodelor.

Tc total calendar time, in hours; H depth, m. The cost of the drilled meter is in fact the synthetic indicator of economic efficiency. In a sense, the unit cost represents a generalization of the other criteria. It allows choosing the optimal values of the parameters of the mechanical drilling system (weight Gs and speed n) by minimizing the expression of the unit cost. Literature [2, 9-12] presents in detail various methods of optimizing mechanical drilling parameters, many of them based on the criterion of the minimum cost per drilled meter. Here are some of these methods: Galle Woods, Preston Moore, Young Don Murphy, Young Bourgoyne, Orlov, Pogarski, Langston, ICPPG Cmpina, etc. Apart from the criterion of the minimum cost per drilled meter, the following criteria are also frequently admitted as optimization criteria: the criterion of the maximum operational speed per trip, the criterion of the limited mechanical speed, the criterion of the maximum operational speed well, the criterion of maximum drilled meters per bit. These criteria have been established according to the description given by the authors of these methods.

56

6.
CALCULUL CAPACITII DE PRODUCIE NTR-O UNITATEA DE FORAJ
Relaia general pentru calculul capacitii de producie este
C p = Cd I e I i ,

6.
CALCULATING THE PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN A DRILLING UNIT
The general relation for calculating the production capacity is (6.1)
C p = Cd I e I i ,

(6.1)

unde: Cp este capacitatea de producie (t/an; barili/an; m3/an, m/an etc.); Cd caracteristica dimensional (mas, volum, debit, timp etc.); Ie indicator de utilizare extensiv a capacitii de producie (fond de timp, ore/an); Ii indicator de utilizare intensiv a capacitii de producie (randamentul instalaiei, utilajului etc.). Capacitatea de producie la o unitate de foraj reprezint metrii forai n condiiile utilizrii intensive i extensive a instalaiei de foraj.
57

where Cp is the production capacity (t/year; barrels/ year; m3/year, m/year, etc.); Cd dimensional characteristics (mass, volume, flow, time, etc.); Ie indicator of extensive use of production capacity (time, hours/year); Ii indicator of intensive use of production capacity (efficiency of installation, equipment, etc.) The production capacity of a drilling unit represents the meters drilled under the intensive and extensive use of the drilling rig.

Indicatori de utilizare instalaiei de foraj

extensiv

Indicators of extensive use of the drilling rig

A drilling installation can be active (rigging up, transport, drilling, production samples/cores, rigging down) or inactive (overhaul, pending further activities, available installation or in reserve). For the calculation of the production capacity only the active installation is important. Kp is called the working asset coefficient and represents the ratio of the time when the installation is active to the overall calendar time:

O instalaie de foraj poate fi activ (montaj, transport, foraj, probe de producie, demontaj) sau inactiv (reparaie capital, ateptare, disponibil sau n rezerv). Pentru calculul capacitii de producie prezint importan numai instalaia activ. Se numete coeficient de utilizare a instalaiilor din patrimoniu Kp, raportul dintre timpul ct instalaia este activ n lucru i timpul total calendaristic:
Kp = ILL , ILP

(6.2)

Kp =

ILL , ILP

(6.2)

unde: ILL reprezint instalaii luni n lucru; ILP instalaii luni patrimoniu. Urmeaz apoi defalcarea timpilor: productivi, neproductivi etc.
58

where: ILL represents the installations whose operational period is expressed in months; ILP the working asset expressed in months. Then comes the breakdown of time: productive, unproductive, etc.

Indicatori de utilizare instalaiei de foraj

intensiv

Indicators of intensive use of the drilling rig

The indicators of intensive use of the drilling rig are represented by drilling speeds. In a drilling unit, what matters most of all is the technical speed vt. The dimensional characteristic for the calculation of the production capacity is ILP (the working asset expressed in months). Under these conditions, equation (6.1) leads to m = ILP Kp vt. Remarks: 1) Just like in the case of extraction, the production capacity varies over time depending on the geological and technical conditions; thus, the necessity to introduce the notion of drilled meter or standardized working hours per worker. 2) The drilled meter is an indicator that makes homogeneous the geological working conditions (lithology, tectonics, depth) and is calculated through an index of equivalence that brings these different working conditions (6.3)

Indicatorii de utilizare intensiv a instalaiei de foraj sunt reprezentai de vitezele de foraj. Pentru o unitate de foraj intereseaz, n primul rnd, viteza tehnic vt. Caracteristica patrimoniu). n aceste condiii, relaia (6.1) ne conduce la m = ILP Kp vt. Observaii: 1) Ca i n cazul extraciei, capacitatea de producie la foraj nu este constant n timp, ci variaz n funcie de condiiile geologo-tehnice; apare astfel necesitatea introducerii noiunii de metru forat sau om ore normate. 2) Metrul forat reprezint un indicator care omogenizeaz condiiile geologice de lucru (litologie, tectonic, adncime), calculndu-se prin intermediul unui indice de echivalen care aduce la acelai numitor aceste
59

dimensional

pentru

calculul

capacitii de producie o reprezint ILP (instalaii luni

(6.3)

condiii diferite de lucru:

mech = m ie ,

to a common denominator: (6.4)

mech = m ie ,

(6.4)

unde
ie = vtc , vtn

where (6.5)

ie =

vtc , vtn

(6.5)

n care: vtc reprezint viteza tehnic convenional [m/ILLc]; vtn viteza tehnic normat [m/ILLn]. Condiiile diferite de lucru din punct de vedere geologic se oglindesc, finalmente, la nivelul vitezelor de lucru. Aceasta impune ca indicele de echivalen s fie calculat prin raportul a dou viteze tehnice de lucru, i anume viteza tehnic a unei sonde luat ca etalon, deci o vitez convenional, i viteza tehnic normat a sondei sau structurii la care ne raportm.

in which: vtc is the conventional technical speed [m/ILLc]; vtn standardized technical speed [m/ILLn]. The different conditions from geological point of view are eventually reflected in the level of the working speed. This requires the calculation of the equivalence index by means of the ratio of two technical working speeds, namely the ratio of the technical speed of a well taken as a standard, therefore a conventional speed, to the standardized technical speed of the probe or structure that we are referring to.

60

Aplicaia 6.1. S se determine coeficientul de utilizare a fondului sondelor de exploatare n semestrul I al anului 2010, la Schela de producie X , cunoscndu-se: A. Sonde active de gaze n producie Oprite B. Sonde active de petrol n producie Oprite C. Sonde inactive D. Sonde n probe de producie E. Sonde pentru injecie F. Sonde n conservare G. Sonde abandonate Soluie. Fondul sondelor de exploatare Fse = Sa + Si = (30 + 10) + 5 = 45. Coeficientul de utilizare a fondului sondelor
Ku = Sa Sa 40 = = = 0,89 . Fse S a + S i 45

Application 6.1. Determine the coefficient of using the fund of the exploitation wells in the production field X in the first semester of the year 2010, knowing the following: A. Active gas wells In production Stopped B. Active oil wells In production Stopped C. Inactive wells D. Wells in production testing E. Injection wells F. Wells in conservation G. Abandoned wells Solution. The fund of the exploitation wells Fse = Sa + Si = (30 + 10) + 5 = 45. The coefficient of the fund of the exploitation wells
Ku = Sa Sa 40 = = = 0,89 . Fse S a + S i 45

30 21 9 10 1 9 5 5 2 3 5

30 21 9 10 1 9 5 5 2 3 5

Aplicaia 6.2. Fie urmtoarea balan de timp a fondului sondelor active n semestrul I al anului 2011 la
61

Application 6.2. Consider the following time balance of the fund of the active wells in the production field Y

sonda Y (timpii sunt exprimai n sonde ore, respectiv, n parantez n sonde luni): A. Timp productiv B. Timp neproductiv: - reparaii la sonde - intervenii i instrumentaii - opriri organizatorice 10 200 (14,2) 8 500 (11,8) 7 350 (10,2) 900 000 (1 250)

in the first semester of the year 2011 (the periods of time are expressed in operating hours of wells, and in brackets, in operating months of wells): A. Productive time B. Unproductive time: - repairs of wells - fishing job - organizational downtime 10 200 (14,2) 8 500 (11,8) 7 350 (10,2) 900 000 (1 250)

Se cere s se calculeze coeficientul de exploatare. Soluie. Timpul neproductiv tn = 10 200 + 8 500 + 7 350 = 26 050 sonde ore (36,2 sonde luni). Timpul calendaristic reprezint suma timpului productiv i a celui neproductiv: tc = tp + tn = 900 000 + 26 050 = 926 050 sonde ore (1 286 sonde luni). n aceste condiii, coeficientul de exploatare Kc = 0,97.
62

Calculate the exploitation coefficient. Solution. Unproductive time tn = 10 200 + 8 500 + 7 350 = 26 050 operating hours of wells (36,2 operating months of wells). The calendar time is the sum between productive and unproductive time: tc = tp + tn = 900 000 + 26 050 = 926 050 operating hours of wells (1 286 operating months of wells). Under these conditions, the exploitation coefficient is Kc = 0,97.

7.
METODE I TEHNICI DE MANAGEMENT
n tabelul 7.1 sunt prezentate, sintetizat, relaiile ntre problemele i tehnicile managementului tiinific aferente industriei extractive de petrol i gaze (repere: T.J. teoria jocurilor; P.M. programare matematic; T.S. teoria stocurilor).
Tabelul 7.1. Relaiile ntre problemele i tehnicile managementului tiinific
Tabele de decizie Arbori de decizie T.J. Prevedere P.M. PERT/ CMP Lanuri Markov T.S. Teoria firelor de ateptare

7.
MANAGEMENT METHODS AND TECHNIQUES
Table 7.1 presents the synthesis of the relations between the problems and the techniques of the scientific management related to the oil and gas extraction industry (repers: G.T. - game theory; M.P. - mathematical programming; T.S - theory of stocks).
Table 7.1. The relations between the problems and the techniques of scientific management
Decision tables Decision trees G.T Forecast M.P PERT/ CMP Markov chains T.S. Queueing Theory

Alocare Distribuie Grafuri Luarea deciziilor n mediu competitiv Stocuri Fire de ateptare Prevederea comportrii sistemelor

Allocation/ Allowance Distribuie Distribution Graphs Making decisions in a competitive environment Stocks Queueing

Forecast of system behaviour

63

7.1. Tabele de decizie

Elementele procesului decizional sunt urmtoarele: obiectivul (obiectivele); decidentul (individual sau colectiv); variantele (strategiile, alternativele); mulimea criteriilor de apreciere a variantelor posibile de ctre decident; mulimea consecinelor; strile naturii. n cadrul tabelelor de decizie ne intereseaz, finalmente, patru elemente de baz: variantele, strile naturii, probabilitatea de apariie a strilor naturii i mulimea consecinelor. Variantele V1, V2, , Vm, pot fi finite sau infinite. Stabilirea just a variantelor posibile constituie o etap de maxim importan n fundamentarea deciziei. Strile naturii S1, S2, , Sn reprezint totalitatea condiiilor interne i externe ale ntreprinderii. Probabilitatea de apariie a strilor naturii pi se asociaz strii naturii Si, iar
n

7.1. Decision Tables

The elements of the decision-making process are as follows: objective(s), the decision-maker (individual or collective), variants (strategies, alternatives), the set of criteria for assessing the possible variants by the decision-maker, the multitude of consequences, and the states of nature. Eventually, four basic elements in the decision table are of interest to us: variants, the states of nature, the probability of occurrence of the states of nature, the multitude of consequences. The variants V1, V2, , Vm, can be finite or infinite. The correct establishing of the possible variants constitutes a phase of utmost importance in substantiating decisions. The states of nature S1, S2, , Sn represent all internal and external conditions of the company. The probability of occurrence of the states of nature pi is associated with the state of nature Si, and (7.1)
n

pi = 1 .
i =1

p
i =1

= 1.

(7.1)

Prin asocierea unei variante cu o stare specific a

64

A so-called consequence aij results from the

naturii rezult o aa numit consecin aij. Finalmente, n tabelul de decizie (tabelul 7.2) se sintetizeaz datele cantitative ale situaiilor de decizie.
Tabelul 7.2. Structura general a unui tabel de decizie
Strile naturii i probabilitile de apariie/ Varianta de decizie

association of a variant with a specific state of nature. Finally, the decision table (Table 7.2) synthesizes the quantitative data of the decision-making situations.
Table 7.2. The general structure of a decision table
States of nature and probability of their occurrence / Decision variant

S1 p1 a11 a21

S2 . . . p2 . . . a12 . . a22 . . .

Sn pn a1n a2n

S1 p1 a11 a21

S2 . . . p2 . . . a12 . . a22 . . .

Sn pn a1n a2n

V1 V2 . . . Vm

am1

amj . . .

amn

V1 V2 . . . Vm

am1

amj . . .

amn

Pentru rezolvarea problemelor cu ajutorul tabelelor de decizie se utilizeaz metoda valorii probabile ateptate i metoda regretului minim.

In order to solve problems by means of decision tables, we use the probable expected value method and the minimum regret method.

Metoda valorii probabile ateptate

Valoarea probabil ateptat corespunztoare fiecrei alternative de aciune se calculeaz prin nsumarea, pe fiecare linie, a produsului dintre rezultatul fiecrei variante i probabilitatea de apariie a acestei variante: VAi = ai1 p1 + ai2 p2 + ain pn. (7.2)

The Probable Expected Value Method

The probable expected value corresponding to each alternative action is calculated on each line by summing the product between the result of each variable and the probability of occurrence of this variable: VAi = ai1 p1 + ai2 p2 + ain pn. (7.2)

65

Varianta optim de decizie va corespunde valorii probabile ateptate maxime. n cazul n care consecinele aij sunt costuri, metoda valorii probabile ateptate va nsemna varianta de decizie care are costul minim n raport cu decizia dorit.

The optimal decision variant will correspond to the maximum probable expected value. If the consequences aij are costs, the probable expected value method will signify the decision variant that has the minimum cost in comparison with the decision that may be preferred.

Aplicaia 7.1. O companie dorete s investeasc o sum de bani n una din urmtoarele trei alternative: exploatarea unui cmp petrolifer; aciuni ale unei corporaii bancare; depozite bancare la termen. Obiectivul companiei este acela de a obine un profit maxim din investirea banilor. Situaia economic incert a impus efectuarea unor cercetri economice n urma crora s-au obinut urmtoarele rezultate n ceea ce privete investirea banilor vizavi de cele trei alternative: cretere economic cu o probabilitate de 40 %; stagnare economic cu o probabilitate de 35 %;
66

Application 7.1. A company wants to invest a sum of money in one of the following three alternatives: exploitation of an oil field; shares of a banking corporation; term bank deposits. The company's goal is to achieve a maximum profit from investing money. Due to the uncertain economic situation some economic "research" was necessary and the results concerning the money investment in the case of the three alternatives are as follows: economic growth with a probability of 40 %; economic stagnation with a probability of 35 %;

 inflaie cu o probabilitate de 25 %. inndu-se seama de situaia economic prognozat, managerul companiei estimeaz c rezultatele obinute n urma investirii banilor n oricare din cele trei alternative vor fi: pentru creterea economic: - exploatarea unui cmp petrolifer cretere 15 %; - aciuni ale unei corporaii bancare cretere 17 %; - depozite bancare la termen cretere 10 %; pentru stagnare economic: - exploatarea unui cmp petrolifer cretere 8 %; - aciuni ale unei corporaii bancare cretere 11 %; - depozite bancare la termen cretere 10 %; pentru inflaie: - exploatarea unui cmp petrolifer cretere 7 %; - aciuni ale unei corporaii bancare pierdere 2 %; - depozite bancare la termen cretere 10 %; Se cere s se stabileasc varianta optim de decizie.

inflation with a probability of 25 %. Taking into account the expected economic situation, the manager of the company estimates that the results obtained from investing money in any of the three alternatives will be the following: for economic growth: - exploitation of an oil field 15 % increase; - shares of a banking corporation 17 % increase; - term bank deposits 10 % increase; for economic stagnation: - exploitation of an oil field 8 % increase; - shares of a banking corporation 11 % increase; - term bank deposits 10 % increase; for inflation: - exploitation of an oil field 7 % increase; - shares of a banking corporation 2 % decrease; - term bank deposits 10 % increase; Find the optimal decision variant.

67

Soluie. Elementele tabelului de decizie sunt urmtoarele: Variantele: V1 exploatarea unui cmp petrolifer; V2 aciuni ale unei corporaii bancare; V3 depozite bancare la termen. Criteriile de apreciere a variantelor: C1 cretere economic; C2 stagnare economic; C3 inflaie. Pentru a determina varianta optim de decizie se sintetizeaz datele problemei n tabelul de decizie 7.3.
Tabelul 7.3. Matricea consecinelor C1 p1 = 0,40 15 17 10 C2 p1 = 0,35 8 11 10 C3 p1 = 0,25 7 -2 10

Solution. The elements of the decision table are: Variants: V1 exploitation of an oil field; V2 shares of a banking corporation; V3 term bank deposits; The criteria for assessing the alternatives: C1 economic growth; C2 economic stagnation; C3 inflation. To determine the optimal decision variant we synthesize the data of the problem in decision table 7.3.
Table 7.3. Matrix of consequences C1 p1 = 0,40 15 17 10 C2 p1 = 0,35 8 11 10 C3 p1 = 0,25 7 -2 10

V1 V2 V3

V1 V2 V3

Se

calculeaz

valoarea

probabil

ateptat

We

calculate

the

probable

expected

value

corespunztoare fiecrei alternative de aciune (se

68

corresponding to each alternative action (by summing on

nsumeaz pe fiecare linie produsul dintre rezultatul fiecrei variante i probabilitatea de apariie a acestei variante): VAi = ai1 p1 + ai2 p2 + ain pn. Concret, se obin urmtoarele rezultate: VA1 = 150,40 + 80,35 + 70,25 = 10,55, VA2 = 170,40 + 110,35 + (-2)0,25 = 10,15, VA3 = 100,40 + 100,35 + 100,25 = 10. Aadar, VA1 > VA2 > VA3, prin urmare valoarea probabil ateptat maxim corespunde variantei V1: exploatarea unui cmp petrolifer.

each line the product between the result of each variant and the probability of occurrence of this variant):

VAi = ai1 p1 + ai2 p2 + ain pn. The following results are obtained: VA1 = 150,40 + 80,35 + 70,25 = 10,55, VA2 = 170,40 + 110,35 + (-2)0,25 = 10,15, VA3 = 100,40 + 100,35 + 100,25 = 10. Therefore VA1 > VA2 > VA3, so the probable expected value corresponds to the variant V1: exploitation of an oil field.

Metoda regretului minim

Metoda regretului minim are la baz principiul conform cruia este considerat optim alternativa pentru care regretul (pierderea) are valoarea minim.
69

The Minimal Regret Method

The minimal regret method is based on the principle that the best alternative is the one in which regret (loss) has the minimum value.

Exist trei etape eseniale care stau la baza selectrii alternativei decizionale. 1) Stabilirea regretelor ca diferen ntre valoarea maxim (n cazul problemelor de maximizare a rezultatelor) i valoarea fiecrei consecine (pe coloan, pentru fiecare stare n parte) conform relaiei: rij(Vi, Sj) = max(a1j, amj) - aij. (7.3)

There are three basic stages that provide the basis for selecting a decisional alternative.
1) Establishing regrets as the difference between the

maximum value (in the case of result maximization problems) and the value of each consequence (in the column, for each state) according to the relation: rij(Vi, Sj) = max(a1j, amj) - aij. (7.3)

n cazul problemelor de minimizare a costurilor, regretul va fi calculat ca diferen ntre valoarea minim i valoarea fiecrei consecine din coloan: rij(Vi, Sj) = min(a1j, amj) - aij. (7.4)

In the case of cost minimization problems, regret will be calculated as the difference between the minimum value and the value of each consequence in the column: rij(Vi, Sj) = min(a1j, amj) - aij. (7.4)

2) Stabilirea, pentru fiecare linie, a regretului (pierderii) cu ajutorul relaiei Rj = ri1 p1 + ri2 p2 + + rin pn. (7.5)

2) Establishing regret (loss) for each line of the column using the relation Rj = ri1 p1 + ri2 p2 + + rin pn. (7.5)

3) Alternativa decizional optim corespunde

70

3) The optimal decision alternative corresponds to the

coloanei cu cel mai mic regret. Aplicaia 7.2. S se calculeze varianta optim de decizie cu ajutorul metodei regretului minim pentru condiiile din problema 7.1. Soluie. Se calculeaz regretele pentru fiecare coloan. n cazul creterii economice, varianta cu rezultatul cel mai bun este V2 (a12 = 17). Regretele pentru cele trei variante n cazul creterii economice sunt: r11 = 17 15 = 2, r21 = 17 17 = 0, r31 = 17 10 = 7. Pentru situaia stagnrii economice, calculul

column of the lowest regret. Application 7.2. conditions of problem 7.1. Solution. We calculate the regrets for each column. For economic growth, the variant with the best result is V2 (a12 = 17). The regrets for the three variants in the case of economic growth are: r11 = 17 15 = 2, r21 = 17 17 = 0, r31 = 17 10 = 7. In the case of economic stagnation, the regrets are calculated starting from the result of variant V2 (a22 = 11), the best result for this state of nature: r12 = 11 8 = 3, Determine the optimal decision

variant by means of the minimal regret method for the

regretelor se face pornindu-se de la rezultatul variantei V2 (a22 = 11), cel mai bun pentru aceast stare a naturii: r12 = 11 8 = 3,

71

r22 = 11 11 = 0, r32 = 11 10 = 1. Pentru starea naturii de inflaie, cel mai bun rezultat se obine pentru varianta V3 (a22 = 10). Regretele, n acest caz sunt urmtoarele: r13 = 10 7 = 3, r23 = 10 (-2) = 12, r33 = 10 10 = 0. Matricea consecinelor pentru regretul minim este redat n tabelul 7.4.
Tabelul 7.4. Matricea regretului minim Strile naturii/ Variante de decizie V1 V2 V3 S1 p1 = 0,40 2 0 7 S2 p1 = 0,35 3 0 1 S3 p1 = 0,25 3 12 0

r22 = 11 11 = 0, r32 = 11 10 = 1. For the state of the nature of inflation, the best result is obtained for the variant V3 (a22 = 10). The regrets in this case are: r13 = 10 7 = 3, r23 = 10 (-2) = 12, r33 = 10 10 = 0. The consequence matrix for the minimum regret is shown in table 7.4.
Table 7.4. Minimum regret matrix States of nature/ Decision variants V1 V2 V3 S1 p1 = 0,40 2 0 7 S2 p1 = 0,35 3 0 1 S3 p1 = 0,25 3 12 0

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Se stabilete acum valoarea regretului pentru fiecare variant de aciune (pe linie): R1 = 2 0,40 + 3 0,35 + 3 0,25 = 2,60, R2 = 0 0,40 + 0 0,35 + 12 0,25 = 3, R3 = 7 0,40 + 1 0,35 + 0 0,25 = 3,15. Rezult, aadar, relaia R1 < R2 < R3. Cu alte cuvinte, varianta optim (regretul minim) este V1, adic exploatarea unui cmp petrolifer. Observaie. Cele dou metode, valoarea probabil ateptat i regretul minim conduc la acelai rezultat, cu alte cuvinte sunt compatibile.

The regret value is now determined for each variant of action (on the line): R1 = 2 0,40 + 3 0,35 + 3 0,25 = 2,60, R2 = 0 0,40 + 0 0,35 + 12 0,25 = 3, R3 = 7 0,40 + 1 0,35 + 0 0,25 = 3,15. Therefore it follows the relationship R1 < R2 < R3. In other words, the optimal variant (the minimum regret) is V1, or the exploitation of an oil field. Note. The two methods, namely the probable expected value and the minimum regret lead to the same result, in other words, they are compatible.

73

Probleme propuse
1. Trei companii de foraj vor acorda n condiii diferite de lucru bune, medii i nefavorabile urmtoarele dividende, n procente, la aceeai valoare a profitului: condiii bune de lucru: Compania 1 Compania 2 Compania 3 condiii medii de lucru: Compania 1 Compania 2 Compania 3 10 %; 13 %; 11,5 %; 20 %; 18 %; 16,5 %;

Problems Proposed
1. Under different working conditions (good, average and unfavourable), three drilling companies will provide the following dividends, expressed as percentages and having the same profit value: good working conditions: Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 20 %; 18 %; 16,5 %; 10 %; 13 %; 11,5 %;

average working conditions:

condiii nefavorabile de lucru: Compania 1 Compania 2 Compania 3 8 %; 7 %; 9,5 %.

unfavourable working conditions: Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 8 %; 7 %; 9,5 %.

74

Pentru ce variant trebuie s se opteze, cunoscnduse c exist probabiliti de 0,1 pentru condiii bune de aprovizionare, 0,3 pentru condiii medii i 0,6 pentru condiii nefavorabile? 2. Utilizndu-se metoda valorii probabile ateptate i cea a regretului minim, decidei care este varianta optim din cele patru prezentate n tabelul 7.5.
Tabelul 7.5. Datele problemei 2

What variant should be chosen, knowing that there are probabilities of 0.1 for good supply conditions, 0.3 for average conditions and 0.6 for unfavourable conditions? 2. Using the probable expected value method and the probable minimum regret method, decide which of the four variants shown in table 7.5 is the best.
Table 7.5. The data of problem 2

Strile naturii/Variante de decizie V1 V2 V3 V4

S1 p1 = 0,22 10 15 12 13

S2 p1 = 0,32 12 15 16 18

S3 p1 = 0,50 -3 3 5 3

States of nature/Decision variants V1 V2 V3 V4

S1 p1 = 0,22 10 15 12 13

S2 p1 = 0,32 12 15 16 18

S3 p1 = 0,50 -3 3 5 3

7.2. Msurarea riscului

n cazul n care decizia nu poate fi luat numai cu ajutorul metodei valorii ateptate ori a regretului minim, se apeleaz, de obicei, la analiza de risc. Precum se tie, scopul oricrei investiii este acela
75

7.2. Risk Measurement

If the decision cannot be taken only by means of the expected value method or of the minimum regret method, we usually resort to the risk analysis. As is known, the purpose of any investment is to

de a obine profit, de a fi rentabil. Pentru un proiect de investiii, rentabilitatea R se obine din fluxurile monetare ntr-un timp viitor i din creterea valorii pe pia a proiectului:
R= D + ( pt pt 1 ) 100 , pt 1

make a profit, to be profitable. For an investment project, profitability R is obtained from the future cash flows and from the increase in the market value of the project:
D + ( pt pt 1 ) 100 , pt 1

[%]

(7.6)

R=

[%]

(7.6)

unde: D reprezint valoarea dividendelor; pt preul pe pia a aciunilor la momentul t; pt-1 - preul pe pia a aciunilor la momentul t 1. n general, o distribuie probabilistic se caracterizeaz prin dou mrimi: - valoarea medie ateptat, care exprim gradul de grupare a valorilor posibile; - dispersia 2, care exprim gradul de mprtiere a valorilor fa de valoarea medie. n cadrul tabelelor de decizie prezentate anterior, elementele de tip aij reprezint, n astfel de situaii, valori monetare pentru diferite variante de decizie Vi i diverse stri ale naturii Si. i, aa cum am mai amintit, suma
76

where: D represents the value of the dividends; pt market price of shares at time t; pt-1 market price of shares at time t - 1.
In general, a probabilistic distribution is characterized

by two values: - the average expected value, which expresses the degree of grouping of the possible values; - the dispersion 2, which expresses the degree of dispersion of the values around their average value. In the above-mentioned decision tables, the elements of type aij represent, in such circumstances, monetary values for different decision variants Vi and different states of nature Si. And as we have mentioned before, the sum of

probabilitilor strilor naturii este 1. Pentru msurarea riscului se estimeaz: valoarea monetar ateptat pentru alternativa i:
VM i = (aij p j ) ;
j =1 k

the probabilities of all states of nature is 1. For risk measurement the following are calculated: the expected monetary value for the alternative i:
VM i = (aij p j ) ;
j =1 k

(7.7)

(7.7)

msura riscului absolut:

the measurement of absolute risk:

i =

(a
k j =1

ij

VM i p j ,

(7.8)

i =

(a
k j =1

ij

VM i p j ,

(7.8)

unde este abaterea medie ptratic i reprezint, n acelai timp, o msur a riscului absolut. Cu ct valorile monetare ateptate sunt mai dispersate n jurul valorii medii, cu att proiectul este mai riscant (fig. 7.1).

where is the average square deviation and, at the same time, it represents a measure of absolute risk. The more dispersed around the average value the expected monetary values are, the riskier the project is (Fig. 7.1).

77

Fig. 7.1. Dispersia valorilor n jurul valorii medii: proiectul 1 este mai riscant dect proiectul 2

Fig. 7.1. Dispersion of values around the average value: project 1 is riskier than project 2

n cazul n care se investete n dou sau mai multe proiecte, atunci se constituie aa numitul portofoliu de investiie. Analiza de risc presupune, n aceast situaie, msurarea riscului att pentru fiecare proiect n parte, ct i pentru portofoliul de investiie n ansamblul su. Aplicaia 7.3. Se consider o investiie n proiectele de foraj A i B, care comport o distribuie probabilistic a rentabilitii conform cu tabelul 7.6. Se cere s se aprecieze care dintre cele dou proiecte este mai riscant.
78

If investments are made in two or more projects, then the so-called investment portfolio is created. In this case, the risk analysis involves the measurement of the risk for each project as well as for the investment portfolio as a whole. Application 7.3. Let us consider an investment in drilling projects A and B, which involves a probability distribution of profitability according to table 7.6. You are required to determine which of the two projects is riskier.

Tabelul 7.6. Datele aferente aplicaiei 7.3

Table 7.6. Data for application 7.3

Proiect A pA RA (aij), % 0,04 11 0,25 16 0,50 20 0,20 25 0,06 32

pB 0,06 0,26 0,40 0,25 0,06

Proiect B RB (aij), % 3 11 20 28 40

Project A RA (aij), % 0,04 11 0,25 16 0,50 20 0,20 25 0,06 32 pA

Project B RB (aij), % 0,06 3 0,26 11 0,40 20 0,25 28 0,06 40 pB

Soluie. Se calculeaz, mai nti, valoarea monetar ateptat pentru cele dou alternative (n fapt rentabilitatea medie):
R A = VM i = (aij p j ),
j =1 k

Solution. First, the expected monetary value for the two alternatives (in fact, the average profitability) is calculated:
R A = VM i = (aij p j ),
j =1 k

R A = 110,04 + 160,25 + 200,50 + 250,20 + 320,06 = 21,36,

R A = 110,04 + 160,25 + 200,50 + 250,20 + 320,06 = 21,36,

RB = 30,06 + 110,26 + 200,40 + 280,25 + 400,06 = 20,44.

RB = 30,06 + 110,26 + 200,40 + 280,25 + 400,06 = 20,44.

Pe de alt parte, msura riscului absolut

On the other hand, the absolute risk measurement

79

i =

(a
k j =1

ij

VM i p j ,

i =

(a
k j =1

ij

VM i p j ,

respectiv
A = (11 21,36) 2 0,04 + (16 21,36) 2 0,25 + (20 21,36) 2 0,25 +
+ (25 21,36) 2 0,04 + (32 21,36) 2 0,06 = 4,39,

that is
A = (11 21,36) 2 0,04 + (16 21,36) 2 0,25 + ( 20 21,36) 2 0,25 +

+ (25 21,36) 2 0,04 + (32 21,36) 2 0,06 = 4,39,

B = (3 20,44) 2 0,06 + (11 20,44) 2 0,26 + (20 20,44) 2 0,40 +

+ (28 20,44) 2 0,25 + (40 20,44) 2 0,06 = 8,87

B = (3 20,44) 2 0,06 + (11 20,44) 2 0,26 + (20 20,44) 2 0,40 +

+ (28 20,44) 2 0,25 + ( 40 20,44) 2 0,06 = 8,87

Cum, pe de o parte, rentabilitatea medie n cazul proiectului A este mai mare dect cea aferent proiectului B, iar pe de alt parte B > A, evident c proiectul B este mai riscant dect proiectul A.

As, on the one hand, the average profitability of project A is higher than the one of project B, and, on the other hand B > A, it follows that project B is obviously riskier than project A.

Problem propus
Se consider dou proiecte de investiii A i B. Cercetrile economice au condus la urmtoarele estimri (tabelul 7.7). Se cere s se aprecieze care dintre proiecte este mai rentabil.
80

Proposed Problem
Let us consider two investment projects A and B. Economic research led to the following estimates (Table 7.7). Which of the two projects is more profitable?

Tabelul 7.7. Datele problemei propuse Proiect A pA ProfitA, % 0,10 11 0,55 17 0,50 20 0,15 25 0,09 32 Proiect B ProfitB, % 3 11 20 28 37

Table 7.7. The data of the proposed problem Project A pA 0,10 0,55 0,50 0,15 0,09 ProfitA, % 11 17 20 25 32 Project B pB ProfitB, % 0,05 3 0,20 11 0,40 20 0,25 28 0,06 37

pB 0,05 0,20 0,40 0,25 0,06

7.3. Metode i tehnici de prognoz

La modul general, metodele de prognoz se bazeaz pe analiza i interpretarea statistico-matematic a modului cum au evoluat fenomenele n trecut. Dintre acestea, cea mai utilizat este metoda extrapolrii care const, n esen, n prelungirea n viitor a evoluiei constante din trecut. Un alt grup de metode l reprezint aa-zisele metode normative. Dintre acestea, un loc important l ocup metoda arborilor de pertinen (relevance tree). Metoda urmrete evitarea omisiunilor, construind riguros toate elementele care condiioneaz evoluia unui fenomen. Pornindu-se de la obiectivul stabilit, se prezint
81

7.3. Forecast Methods and Techniques

In general, forecast methods are based on statistical and mathematical analysis and interpretation of the way in which the phenomena evolved in the past. Of these, the extrapolation method is most commonly used and consists essentially in the future extension of the past constant evolution. Another group of methods is represented by the socalled normative methods. Out of these, the one that holds an important place is the relevance tree method (relevance tree). The method aims to avoid omissions by rigorously building all the elements which determine the evolution of a phenomenon. Starting from the established target, a tree

pe un arbore toate activitile, ierarhizndu-se obiectivele care trebuie atinse succesiv, la anumite intervale de timp. n figura 7.2 este prezentat un caz general, i anume acela al prevederii cilor de cretere a productivitii muncii n urmtorii ani. Un alt exemplu vizeaz construcia arborelui de pertinen pentru prognoza dezvoltrii industriei extractive de petrol. n acest caz, arborele are cinci nivele, avnd urmtoarele semnificaii: (1) - obiectivul principal; (2) obiectivele mari; (3) obiectivele secundare; (4) mijloacele de realizare; (5) cercetrile i dezvoltrile necesare desfurrii programului conform figurii 7.3.

presents all activities prioritizing the objectives to be achieved sequentially at certain intervals. Figure 7.2 presents a general case, namely the forecasting of the ways to increase labour productivity in the coming years. Another example concerns the construction of the relevance tree to forecast the oil extractive industry development. In this case, the tree has five levels, with the following meanings: (1) - the main objective, (2) - major objectives, (3) - secondary objectives, (4) - the means of implementation, (5) - research and development necessary to realize the programme according to figure 7.3.

82

Fig. 7.2. Arbore de pertinen pentru prevederea cilor de cretere a productivitii muncii

Fig. 7.2. Relevance tree for forecasting the ways to increase productivity

Se poate constata c, pe lng zcmintele n exploatare, n calculul de prognoz al produciei, dat fiind orizontul mare de timp la care se refer o astfel de prognoz, se impune luarea n considerare a zcmintelor noi ce vor fi puse n exploatare.

We may notice that, besides the deposits in exploitation, the production forecast calculation must also take into account the new deposits that will be exploited because of the large time spam to which such a forecast refers.

83

Fig. 7.3. Arbore de pertinen pentru dezvoltarea industriei extractive de petrol

Fig. 7.3. Relevance tree for the oil extractive industry development

O alt metod de prognoz este aceea a anchetei interactive Delphi, care folosete studiile previzionale pe termen lung. Caracteristica principal a metodei o constituie utilizarea feed-back-ului de opinie prin consultarea inter-reciproc a unor specialiti. Tehnica de lucru const n elaborarea unor chestionare, care se trimit unor experi ce sunt solicitai s
84

Another forecast method is the Delphi interactive investigation, which uses long-term forecasting studies. The main feature of the method lies in the use of feed-back on opinions through inter and mutual consultations of experts. The working technique consists in developing questionnaires that are sent to experts who are asked to

rspund ntr-un anumit interval de timp. Dup primirea tuturor rspunsurilor, consultarea se repet, trimindu-se, de data aceasta, fiecrui participant, rspunsurile nominalzate ale tuturor participanilor. Dup o a doua consultare (sau, dac este cazul, dup mai multe), se va obine o stabilizare a rezultatelor. Se apreciaz c nu rspunsurile majoritare aduc noul dorit, ci tocmai cele singulare. n industria extractiv de petrol i gaze, dat fiind complexitatea procesului de exploatare a hidrocarburilor, lista specialitilor consultai trebuie s reprezinte un colectiv multidisciplinar, alctuit din geologi, ingineri de zcmnt, chimiti, matematicieni, fizicieni, economiti etc. (v. i fig. 5.1) Tot n acest context trebuie amintit i metoda morfologic. Aceasta pleac de la ideea c orice obiect poate fi considerat ca un ansamblu compus dintr-un numr oarecare de pri finite i i propune s gseasc, prin analiza combinatorie, acea structur a obiectului care s corespund unor criterii specifice de optimizare.

respond in a certain period of time. After receiving all responses, the consultation is repeated, this time sending the nominated responses of all participants to each and every one of them. After a second consultation (or, if necessary, after several consultations), we will get a stabilization of the results. It is estimated that the new solutions wanted are not provided by the majority of the responses but, on the contrary, by those that are unique. Given the complexity of the hydrocarbon exploitation, the list of consultative experts in the oil and gas extraction industry must be a multidisciplinary team composed of geologists, reservoir engineers, chemists, mathematicians, physicists, economists, etc. (see also fig. 5.1)
In

this context, we should also mention the

morphological method. This is based on the idea that any object can be considered as an ensemble composed of any number of finite parts. By combinatorial analysis, this method aims to find that structure of the object corresponding to certain specific optimization criteria.

85

7.4. Metode moderne de programare a produciei

Metoda cea mai rspndit de programare a produciei, pn la dezvoltarea planificrii n reea, a constituit-o diagrama n benzi (diagrama Gantt). Aceast diagram o considerm depit ntruct nu permite distingerea dependenei activitilor componente i nu d indicaii asupra activitii i probabilitii de scurtare a duratei procesului. Aceste dezavantaje sunt nlturate prin utilizarea diagramei n reea, care se bazeaz pe teoria grafurilor dezvoltat de D. Knig, care a efectuat ample cercetri asupra reelelor geometrice. Pe baza acestei teorii, M. R. Walker i J. E. Kelly sau ocupat de reprezentarea unui ciclu de lucru cu ajutorul grafului-reea i au determinat drumul critic, adic succesiunea operaiilor care sunt decisive n determinarea duratei totale. Ei au denumit tehnica de planificare Critical Path Method (CPM) metoda drumului critic aplicat pentru prima oar la planificarea construciei unei fabrici
86

7.4. Modern Methods of Production Scheduling

Up to the development of network planning, the most common method of production scheduling was the strip diagram (Gantt diagram). We consider this diagram to be obsolete as it does not allow us to distinguish the dependence of the component activities and does not give any indications about the activity and probability of shortening the process. These disadvantages can be eliminated by using the network diagram, which is based on the graph theory developed by D. Knig, who conducted extensive research on geometric networks. Starting from this theory, M.R. Walker and J.E. Kelly dealt with the representation of a working cycle by means of the network graph and determined the critical path, that is the sequence of operations which are decisive for determining the total duration. They called this planning technique the Critical Path Method (CPM) and it was first applied to planning the construction of a factory for

pentru produse chimice. n paralel cu dezvoltarea metodei drumului critic, W. Fazar a alctuit un sistem de planificare similar, denumit metoda PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique). Metoda PERT se deosebete de metoda drumului critic n sensul c, pentru durata fiecrei activiti se presupune o repartiie de probabilitate (de la durata pesimist la cea optimist), n timp ce metoda drumului critic presupune o durat constant a activitilor din cadrul procesului respectiv. Elementul comun const n ntocmirea unui plan detaliat de desfurare a procesului sau proiectului, n care se reprezint activitile respective cu legturile reciproce ntr-un grafic reea, calculndu-se durata activitilor respective, adic termenele procesului (proiectului). Potrivit logicii succesiunii i condiionrii operaiilor, metoda PERT cuprinde (fig. 7.4): evenimente (i, j);
87

chemical products. In parallel with the development of the critical path method, W. Fazar created a similar planning system, called the PERT method (Program Evaluation and Review Technique). The PERT method differs from the critical path approach in the sense that the former assumes a distribution of probability (from the pessimistic duration to the optimistic one) for the duration of each activity, while the latter assumes a constant duration of the activities within the respective process. The common element lies in the preparation of a detailed plan for the development of the process or project; this plan will include the respective activities with their mutual links in a network graph, calculating the duration of these activities, namely the terms of the process or project. According to the logic of the sequence and conditioning (fig. 7.4): events (i, j); of operations, PERT method includes

 durata T (task time):

T= a + 4m + b , 6

duration T (task time): (7.9)

T= a + 4m + b , 6

(7.9)

unde: a este aprecierea optimist a duratei; b aprecierea pesimist; m aprecierea cea mai probabil. momentul minim de terminare (timpul cel mai devreme minimum finishing time) mf = ms + T, respectiv, pentru mai multe intrri, mf = max (msi + Ti), (7.11) (7.10)

where: a is the optimistic assessment of the duration; b pessimistic assessment; m the most likely assessment. the minimum finishing time (the earliest time)

mf = ms + T, respectively, for several entries, mf = max (msi + Ti),

(7.10)

(7.11)

unde ms este momentul minim de start; momentul maxim de start (timpul cel mai trziu de ncepere a activitii - maximum time for start) Ms = Mf T, (7.12)
88

where ms is the minimum starting time; the maximum starting time (the latest starting time of an activity) Ms = Mf T, (7.12)

respectiv, pentru mai multe intrri, Ms = min (Mfi Ti), (7.13)

respectively, for several entries, Ms = min (Mfi Ti), (7.13)

unde Mf este momentul maxim de terminare.

where Mf is the maximum finishing time.

Fig. 7.4. Graful proiectului (metoda PERT)

Fig. 7.4. The graph of the project (the PERT method)

Spre o mai bun nelegere a metodei, vom aplica mai nti metoda ntr-o situaie mult mai palpabil: optimizarea zborurilor dintre mai multe orae mari ale lumii [7]. Aplicaia 7.4. Se cere s se determine drumul critic (PERT) pentru optimizarea zborurilor dintre Seattle (1) i Pekin (8) (cargo potal). Se vor efectua escale la: Dublin (2), Sao Paolo (3), Miami (4), Sankt Petersburg (5),
89

For a better understanding of the method, we will first apply the method to a much more tangible situation: the optimization of flights between several cities of the world [7]. Application 7.4. You are required to determine the critical path (PERT) for the optimization of the flights between Seattle (1) and Pekin (8) (postal cargo). There will be stopovers in Dublin (2), Sao Paolo (3), Miami (4), Sankt

Bucureti-Otopeni (6) i Ierusalim (7). Soluie. n figura 7.5 este prezentat schema general a drumului critic aferent celor 8 noduri (evenimente). Determinm, mai nti, momentele minime de terminare mf, avnd n vedere nodurile complexe. Momentul minim de terminare pn la nodul complex 4 (dou intrri): 1 2: 1 3: 2 4: 3 4: 12 h. 0 + 6 h = 6 h; 0 + 5 h = 5 h; 6 h + 6 h = 12 h; 5 h + 4 h = 9 h.

Petersburg (5), Bucharest-Otopeni (6) and Jerusalem (7). Solution. Figure 7.5 presents the general chart of the critical path related to the 8 nodes (events). We first determine the minimum finishing times mf, considering the complex nodes. The minimum finishing time up to the complex node 4 (two entries): 1 2: 1 3: 2 4: 3 4: 12 h. 0 + 6 h = 6 h; 0 + 5 h = 5 h; 6 h + 6 h = 12 h; 5 h + 4 h = 9 h.

Nodul 4 fiind cu dou intrri, mf = max (24; 3-4) =

Node 4 being with two entries, mf = max (24; 3-4) =

90

Fig. 7.5. Schema general a drumului critic (aplicaia 7.4)

Fig. 7.5. The general chart of the critical path (application 7.4)

Momentul minim de terminare pn la nodul complex 6 (trei intrri): 2 5: 2 6: 4 6: 5 6: 6 h + 5 h = 11 h; 6 h + 3 h = 9 h; 12 h + 5 h = 17 h; 11 h + 4 h = 15 h.

Minimum finishing time up to the complex node 6 (three entries): 2 5: 2 6: 4 6: 5 6: 6 h + 5 h = 11 h; 6 h + 3 h = 9 h; 12 h + 5 h = 17 h; 11 h + 4 h = 15 h.

n aceste condiii, momentul minim de terminare mf = max (26; 4-6; 5-6) = 17 h. Momentul minim de terminare pn la nodul complex 8 (dou intrri): 4 7: 6 8: 12 h + 12 h = 24 h; 17 h + 11 h = 25 h;
91

Under these conditions, the minimum finishing time mf = max (26; 4-6; 5-6) = 17 h. The minimum finishing time up to complex node 8 (two entries): 4 7: 6 8: 12 h + 12 h = 24 h; 17 h + 11 h = 25 h;

7 8:

24 h + 9 h = 33 h.

7 8:

24 h + 9 h = 33 h.

Aadar, mf = max (68; 7-8) = 33 h. Cum nodul 8 este terminal (finish), se va lua i pentru momentul maxim de terminare aceeai valoare: 33h (fig 7.6).

Hence, mf = max (68; 7-8) = 33 h. As node 8 is terminal, the maximum finishing time will have the same value: 33h (Fig. 7.6).

Fig. 7.6. Stabilirea momentelor minime de terminare (aplicaia 7.4)

Fig. 7.6. Establishing the minimum finishing moments (application 7.4)

Acum, termenii maximi de terminare se determin n ordine invers, de la stnga la dreapta, cu ajutorul relaiilor (7.12) sau (7.13): 8 7: 8 6: 6 5: 33 h - 9 h = 24 h; 33 h - 11 h = 22 h; 22 h - 4 h = 18 h.

Now, the maximum finishing terms are determined in reverse order, from left to right, using relations (7.12) or (7.13) 8 7: 8 6: 6 5: 33 h - 9 h = 24 h; 33 h - 11 h = 22 h; 22 h - 4 h = 18 h.

92

Nodul 4 este complex: 7 4: 6 4: 24 h - 12 h = 12 h; 22 h - 5 h = 17 h.

Node 4 is complex: 7 4: 24 h - 12 h = 12 h; 6 4: 22 h - 5 h = 17 h. Therefore, Ms = min (7-4; 6-4) = 12 h. It follows that for the simple node 3, Ms = 12 4 = 8 h. The maximum finishing time for the complex node 2 results from: 4 2: 12 h - 5 h = 6 h; 6 2: 22 h - 3 h = 19 h; 5 2: 18 h - 5 h = 13 h, that is Ms = min (4-2; 6-2; 5-2) = 6 h. The critical path (PERT) for which R = M - m = 0 (Fig. 7.7) will be: 1 2 4 7 8.

Prin urmare, Ms = min (7-4; 6-4) = 12 h. Pentru nodul simplu 3 rezult Ms = 12 4 = 8 h. Momentul maxim de terminare pentru nodul complex 2 rezult din: 4 2: 12 h - 5 h = 6 h; 6 2: 22 h - 3 h = 19 h; 5 2: 18 h - 5 h = 13 h, respectiv Ms = min (4-2; 6-2; 5-2) = 6 h. Drumul critic (PERT) pentru care R = M - m = 0 (fig. 7.7) va fi: 1 2 4 7 8.

Fig. 7.7. Schema final a drumului critic (aplicaia 7.4)

Fig. 7.7. The final diagram of the critical path (application 7.4)

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Aplicaia 7.5. Se consider un proiect care vizeaz alimentarea cu ap a unei schele de foraj printr-o conduct subteran. n vederea optimizrii desfurrii activitilor ce compun acest proiect s-au efectuat msurtori ale timpilor necesari execuiei fiecrei activiti n parte (tabelul 7.8). Se cere s se stabileasc drumul critic aferent. Rezolvare. Printr-o descompunere sumar se obin urmtoarele activiti simple: A demararea proiectului (momentul 0); B ntocmirea proiectului tehnic; C formaliti pentru ocuparea terenului; D amenajarea antierului; E aprovizionare cu material tubular; F sparea anului; G aezarea n iruri a evilor i efectuarea sudurii; H lansarea materialului tubular n an; I efectuarea probelor de presiune; J astuparea anului; K ncheierea proiectului. Practic, n tabelul 7.8 au fost parcurse trei etape din cadrul programrii activitilor: descompunerea proiectului n activiti simple, dependena dintre activiti i
94

Application 7.5. Let us consider a project that aims to supply water to a drilling field through an underground pipe. In order to optimize the performance of the activities that constitute this project, the time needed for each activity is measured (table 7.8). You are required to determine the relating critical path. Solution. In a summary breakdown, the following simple activities are obtained: A initiating the project (moment 0); B drawing up the technical project; C formalities for occupying the land; D building the drilling site; E supplying the drilling site with tubular material; F trench digging; G displaying the pipes in strings/lines and welding; H placing the tubular material in the trenches; I performing the pressure tests; J stoppering the trenches; K closing the project. Basically, table 7.8 presents three stages of the scheduled activities: breaking down the project in simple activities, the dependences between the activities and

estimarea duratei activitilor. Pasul urmtor l constituie realizarea grafului aferent proiectului (fig. 7.8). n condiiile aplicaiei noastre avem: msA = 0; mfC = 7; mfB = msA + 6 = 6; mfD = 6 + 2 = 8; mfE = max (10 ; 11) = 11 .a.m.d.

estimating the duration of the activities. The next step is to make the graph for the implementation of the project (Fig. 7.8.) Given our application we have: msA = 0; mfC = 7; mfB = msA + 6 = 6; mfD = 6 + 2 = 8; mfE = max (10 ; 11) = 11 a.s.o.

Tabelul 7.8. Datele problemei 7.5

Activitatea A B C D E F G H I J K Activitatea (activitile) precedent (precedente) A B B B, D C, E F F H F, G I, J Durata activitii (sptmni) 0 6 1 2 tDE = 3; tBE = 4 tCF = 8; tEF = 7 5 3 0,5 tFJ = 1; tGJ = 1 tIK = 0,5; tJK = 0,5

Table 7.8. The data of problem 7.5

Activity A B C D E F G H I J K Previous activity (activities) A B B B, D C, E F F H F, G I, J Duration of activity (weeks) the

0 6 1 2 tDE = 3; tBE = 4 tCF = 8; tEF = 7 5 3 0,5 tFJ = 1; tGJ = 1 tIK = 0,5; tJK = 0,5

Conform teoriei cercetrilor operaionale, se poate considera c n nodul K nu exist nici un motiv de ntrziere i se poate aprecia c mfK = MfK = 24,5.
95

According to the theory of operational research, we can consider that in node K there is no reason for delay and we can say that mfK = MfK = 24.5.

Apoi: MfJ = 24,5 0,5 = 24; min (18; 23,5; 24) = 18 .a.m.d. Drumul critic este drumul cu lungimea cea mai mare pe graf, sau acela pentru care rezerva de timp Rt = M m este zero. MfI = 24; MfF =

Then: MfJ = 24,5 0,5 = 24; MfI = 24; MfF = min (18; 23,5; 24) = 18 and so on. The critical path is the one with the biggest length on the chart, or the one for whom the time reserve Rt = M m is zero.

Fig. 7.8. Schema general a drumului critic (aplicaia 7.5)

Fig. 7.8. General chart of the critical path (application 7.5)

Cu alte cuvinte, RtA = RtB = RtE = RtF = RtJ = RtK = 0, adic drumul critic este A B E F J K, iar activitile A, B, E, F, J i K se numesc critice.

In other words, RtA = RtB = RtE = RtF = RtJ = RtK = 0, that is the critical path is A B E F K J and activities A, B, E, F, J and K are called critical.

96

8.
FUNDAMENTAREA RAPORTULUI PRODUCIE REZERVE METRI FORAI (GAZE)
Msura n care rezervele R asigur, la un moment dat, dezvoltarea produciei necesare Q este dat de coeficientul anual de consum
Ic = Q , R

8.
ESTABLISHING THE RELATIONSHIP AMONG PRODUCTION, RESERVES AND DRILLED METERS OF GAS
The extent to which, at some point, the reserves R provide the development of the necessary production Q is expressed by the annual comsumption coefficient (8.1)
Ic = Q , R

(8.1)

Ic fiind exprimat n procente. Inversul acestui raport d gradul de asigurare a produciei cu rezerve:
A= Q R

Ic being expressed as a percentage. The reverse of this ratio gives the assurance level of production with reserves: (8.2)
A= Q R

(8.2)

A fiind exprimat n ani.

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A being expressed in years.

inndu-se seama de faptul c ritmul de cretere a produciei de gaze este cerut de ritmul de cretere al necesarului de gaze naturale (combustibil, materie prim, producerea electricitii, GNV), corelat cu piaa internaional, pentru determinarea unui indice anual de consum optim se impun trei corelaii: a) corelaia ntre ritmul de cretere a produciei de gaze naturale i ritmul de cretere a necesarului de utilizare al acestora; b) corelaia ntre ritmul de cretere a produciei de gaze naturale i ritmul de cretere a rezervelor; c) corelaia ntre ritmul de cretere a rezervelor i ritmul lucrrilor de foraj. a. Corelaia ntre ritmul de cretere a produciei i ritmul de cretere a necesarului de gaze naturale Ritmul de cretere a necesarului de gaze naturale este dictat de interesele economiei naionale. n acest sens, volumul necesar de gaze naturale trebuie analizat n funcie de folosirea acestora n cadrul sectoarelor industriale, rezideniale i comerciale, drept combustibil, materie prim pentru industria chimic sau produse de
98

Taking into account the fact that the growth rate of gas production is required by the increased need for natural gas use (fuel, raw material, producing electricity, GNV) correlated with the international market, three relations are required in order to establish an annual index of optimal consumption: a) the correlation between the growth rate of natural gas production and the increased rate of the need for natural gas use; b) the correlation between the growth rate of natural gas production and the growth rate of reserves; c) the correlation between the growth rate of reserves and the rhythm of drilling operations. a. The correlation between the growth rate of production and the growth rate of natural gas need The growth rate of natural gas needs is determined by the interests of the national economy. In this respect, the necessary volume of natural gas must be analysed taking into account its use in industrial, residential and commercial sectors, as fuel, raw material for the chemical industry or export products, GNV, producing electricity, etc.

export, GNV, producerea electricitii etc. Cu alte cuvinte, corelaia dintre producia de gaze naturale Q i necesarul Qg se va face prin intermediul unui randament de utilizare
g =
Qg Q

In other words, the correlation between the natural gas production Q and the need for natural gas Qg will be done by means of an efficiency ratio
Qg Q

(8.3)

g =

(8.3)

Altfel spus, n condiiile unui anumit ritm de cretere a necesarului de gaze naturale stabilit la nivelul economiei naionale, pentru corelaia ntre acest ritm i ritmul de cretere a produciei de gaze naturale, se va aciona asupra gradului de valorificare a gazelor naturale, n sensul creterii acestuia. b. Corelaia ntre ritmul de cretere a produciei i ritmul de cretere a rezervelor n vederea obinerii unui anumit nivel al indicelui de consum, ritmul de cretere a produciei impune, la rndul su, un anumit ritm de cretere a rezervelor. Din acest punct de vedere, n ipoteza considerrii unui indice de consum optim Ico, exist dou situaii:
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In other words, under the condition of a certain growth rate of the demand for natural gas established at the level of the national economy, the correlation between this rate and the growth rate of gas production will be obtained by acting on the degree of the natural gas exploitation.

b. The correlation between the growth rate of natural gas production and the growth of reserves In order to obtain a certain level of the consumption index, the growth rate of production also requires a certain growth rate of reserves. From this point of view, if we consider an optimal consumption index Ico, there are two situations:

Icn = Ico = ct sau Icn Ico. n cazul Icn = Ico = ct, adic indicele de consum anual al rezervelor la sfritul perioadei Icn este egal cu indicele de consum anual al rezervelor la nceputul perioadei care este chiar indicele de consum optim Ico -, atunci:
q Q n = Q0 1 + , 100
n

Icn = Ico = ct or Icn Ico. If Icn = Ico = ct, that is the annual consumption index of the reserves at the end of the period, Icn is equal to the annual consumption index of the reserves at the beginning of the period which is precisely the optimal consumption index Ico -, then: (8.4)
q Qn = Q0 1 + , 100 b R n = R0 1 + , 100
n b R = Rn R0 = R0 1 + 1 , 100 n n

(8.4)

b R n = R0 1 + , 100
n b R = Rn R0 = R0 1 + 1 , 100

(8.5)

(8.5)

(8.6)

(8.6)

Rt = R + Qi ,
i =1

(8.7)

Rt = R + Qi ,
i =1

(8.7)

relaii n care: Qo este producia care se extrage la nceputul perioadei la care ne raportm, tone/an; Qn producia care se extrage le sfritul perioadei, tone/an;
100

relations in which: Qo is the production extracted at the beginning of the period which we refer to, tons/year ; Qn the production extracted at the end of the period, tons/year;

q, b procentele de cretere ale produciei, respectiv rezervelor (n acest caz q = b); R0 rezerva recuperabil la nceputul perioadei, tone; Rn rezerva recuperabil la sfritul perioadei, tone; R creterea de rezerv, tone; Rt creterea total de rezerv, tone;
n

q, b percentages of the production growth, and of reserves respectively (in this case q = b) ; R0 recoverable reserve at the beginning of the period, tons ; Rn recoverable reserve at the end of the period, tons; R reserve growth, tons; Rt total reserve growth, tons;
n

Q
i =1

- creterile totale de producie, tone.

Q
i =1

- total production growth, tons.

n cel de-al doilea caz, adic al scderii indicelui anual de consum al rezervelor la o valoare impus, deci Icn Ico relaiile de calcul vor fi:
q Q n = Q0 1 + , 100
n

In the second case, namely the decrease in the annual consumption index to an imposed value, therefore Icn Ico the calculation relations will be:
q Q n = Q0 1 + , 100
n

` Rn = Rn

I co , I cn

(8.8)

` Rn = Rn

I co , I cn

(8.8)

` R ` = Rn Ro ,

(8.9)
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` R ` = Rn Ro ,

(8.9)

Rt` = R ` + Qi ,
i =1

(8.10)

Rt` = R ` + Qi ,
i =1

(8.10)

unde:
` reprezint rezerva la sfritul perioadei tone (n Rn

where:
` represents the reserve at the end of the period in Rn

acest caz, Rn se calculeaz tot cu ajutorul relaiei 8.5);

R ` - creterea de rezerv pentru al doilea caz;

tons (in this case, Rn is also calculated by using relation 8.5);

R ` - reserve growth for the second case;

Rt` - creterea total de rezerv pentru al doilea caz.

Rt` - total reserve growth for the second case.

Diferena dintre creterea total de rezerv n al doilea caz Rt` i creterea total de rezerv n primul caz Rt, constituie creterea suplimentar Rs, care asigur scderea indicelui anual de consum al rezervelor la valoarea impus:
` Rs = Rt` Rt = Rn Rn .

The difference between the total reserve growth for the second case Rt` and the total reserve growth for the first case Rt, represents the additional growth Rs, which provides the decrease in the annual consumption index to the required value;

(8.11)

` Rs = Rt` Rt = Rn Rn .

(8.11)

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c. Corelaia ntre ritmul de cretere a rezervelor i ritmul lucrrilor de foraj Creterea total de rezerv constituie criteriul determinrii volumului de lucrri de foraj. Indicatorul prin care se determin volumul de lucrri de foraj necesar unei anumite creteri de rezerve este producia medie pe sond. n aceste condiii, relaia de calcul pentru numrul de locaii n este
Rt = n, Qs

c. The correlation between the growth rate of reserves and the rhythm of drilling operations The total reserve growth is the criterion used for determining the volume of drilling. The indicator by which we determine the volume of drilling required for a certain reserve growth is the average production per well. Under these conditions, the calculation relation for the number of locations n is
Rt = n, Qs

(8.12)

(8.12)

relaie n care Qs reprezint producia medie pe sond, tone/sond. Pentru o adncime medie a sondelor hm, volumul de lucrri de foraj (metrii forai)
m = n hm .

relation in which Qs represents the average production per well, tons/ well. For an average depth of wells hm, the volume of drilling (drilled meters) is

(8.13)
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m = n hm .

(8.13)

Desigur c, ntre numrul de loca ii n i metrii forai m pe structurile S , exist un coeficient de reu it cr, care depinde att de factori obiectivi (prospec iuni geofizice, repartizarea gazelor naturale n timp i spaiu, mrimea rezervei i distribu ia ei n spaiu etc.), ct i subiectivi (orientarea lucr rilor geofizice, factorii de rspundere ai plas rii locaiilor, modul de amplasare etc.). Aadar, fundamentarea tiinific a volumului de lucrri de foraj const n efectuarea unei balane a rezervelor. Sintetizat, fundamentarea planului n industria extractiv de gaze se bazeaz pe raportul necesar (producia de gaze) / posibil (structuri) (fig. 8.1).

Of course, between the number of locations n and the drilled meters m on the structures S, there is a success coefficient cr, which depends on both objective factors (geophysical explorations, natural gas distribution in place and time, the size of the reserve and its distribution in space, etc.) and subjective factors (orientation of geophysical works, the factors responsible for the placement of locations, the modality of placement, etc.). Therefore, the scientific substantiation of the volume of drilling consists in making a balance of reserves. In a synthesized way, the substantiation of the plan in the gas extraction industry is based on the ratio necessary (production of gas) / possible (structures) (Fig. 8.1.)

104

Fig. 8.1. Metoda balan ei pentru fundamentarea planului industriei extractive de gaze.

Fig. 8.1. The balance method for establishing the gas extraction industry plan.

Avndu-se n vedere c mrirea rezervelor pe calea descoperirii de noi resurse reclam un volum mare de investiii, corela ia ntre produc ie i rezerve trebuie justificat , n ultima analiz, din punct de vedere economic. O valoare optim din punct de vedere economic a indicelui anual de consum al rezervelor, corelat cu piaa interna ional , impune determinarea unui volum optim economic al produc iei de gaze extrase i efectuarea unui calcul de optimizare
105

Taking into account the fact that increasing the reserves by means of discovering new resources requires a large number of investments, the correlation between production and reserves must be justified, ultimately, in economic terms. An optimal economic value of the annual consumption index of reserves, correlated with the international market, requires determining an optimal economic volume of extracted gas production and performing a calculation to optimize

a cre terii rezervelor, n sensul alegerii variantei optime ntre posibilit ile de cre tere a acestora.

the growth of reserves, in the sense of choosing the optimal variant from their growth opportunities.

106

9.
EFICIENA INVESTIIILOR N INDUSTRIA EXTRACTIV DE PETROL I GAZE 9.1. Generaliti
Se poate aprecia c ntreaga activitate de foraj este o activitate de investiii, iar lucrrile de foraj se desfoar n condiii de risc i incertitudine. Eficiena investiiilor presupune luarea n considerare a unui mecanism economic care s reflecte particularitile sistemului la care se raporteaz i s rspund cerinelor unei metodologii economicofinanciare care s reflecte eficiena sistemului. n industria extractiv de petrol i gaze se realizeaz investiii pentru: lucrri geologice (descoperirea de rezerve confirmate), construcii de sonde de explorare i exploatare, utilaje specifice procesului de extracie etc.
107

9.
THE EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENTS IN THE PETROLEUM AND GAS EXTRACTION INDUSTRY 9.1. General Presentation
We can estimate that drilling always implies investment, and that drilling operations are performed under risky and uncertain conditions. The efficiency of investments involves taking into consideration an economic mechanism which reflects the particularities of the system it is related to, and which responds to the requirements of an economic and financial methodology reflecting the efficiency of the system. In the oil and gas extraction industry, investments are made for: geological works (discovery of confirmed reserves), construction of exploration and exploitation wells, equipment specific to the extraction process, etc. Out

Dintre toate acestea, investiiile aferente forajului (pentru lucrri geologice i construcii de sonde) dein, de departe, ponderea cea mai mare: peste 60 % din volumul total de investiii alocate industriei extractive de petrol i gaze. n pofida impresionantelor progrese realizate n tehnica i tehnologia forajului, costul acestuia rmne nc ridicat ca urmare a condiiilor de lucru din ce n ce mai grele: forajul marin n ape adnci sau ultra-adnci n zone cu multiple dificulti (clim, distan, aciunea mediului marin .a.), forajul propriu-zis la adncimi din ce n ce mai mari etc. Aa stnd lucrurile, se poate aprecia c eficiena investiiilor constituie problema-cheie a dezvoltrii industriei extractive de petrol i gaze.

of these, the investments in drilling (for geological works and the construction of wells) have the largest share by far: 60 % of the total investment allocated to the oil and gas extraction industry. In spite of the impressive advances in drilling techniques and technology, the cost of drilling remains high because of the more and more difficult working conditions: drilling in deep water or ultra-deep water areas with multiple problems (climate, distance, action of the marine environment, etc.) as well as drilling at increasingly greater depths, and so on. That being so, we can say that investment efficiency constitutes the key issue concerning the development of the oil and gas extraction industry.

9.2. Indicatorii eficienei economice a i nves ti iilor

Principalii indicatori ai eficienei economice a investiiilor sunt: investiia specific, preul de cost (costul unitar), costul marginal (suplimentar), timpul de recuperare a investiiilor, rentabilitatea i actualizarea investiiilor.
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9.2. Economic Efficiency Indicators of Investments

The main economic efficiency indicators of investments are the following: specific investment, cost price (unit cost), marginal (additional) cost, investment recovery period, profitability and investment update.

a. Investiia specific Investiia specific

I sp =

a. Specific Investment Specific investment (9.1)

I sp =

I
i =1

I
i =1

(9.1)

unde:

where:

I i reprezint volumul total al investiiilor;

i =1

I
i =1

represents the total volume of investments;

N cumulativul de petrol (gaze) extras. Investiia specific trebuie s se raporteze att la ntregul proces de explorare-exploatare ct i la fiecare proces n parte, respectiv la cele trei mari categorii de investiii: Id descoperiri de noi rezerve; Is construcia sondelor de exploatare i de injecie; Ip producia (extracia), respectiv instalaia de suprafa, echipamentul de fund i de suprafa etc. Relaiile de calcul aferente celor trei categorii de investiii specifice vor fi similare relaiei (9.1):
109

N the cumulative quantity/amount of extracted crude oil/gas. The specific investment must be related to both the whole exploration and exploitation process, and to each process separately, that is to the three major investment categories: Id - discoveries of new reserves; Is the construction of operation and injection wells; Ip production (extraction), namely the bottom and surface equipment, etc. The calculation relations corresponding to the three categories of specific investments will be similar to relation (9.1):

I spd =

Id , N

(9.2)

I spd =

Id , N

(9.2)

I sps =

Is , N

(9.3)

I sps =

Is , N

(9.3)

I spp =

Ip N

(9.4)

I spp =

Ip N

(9.4)

Pe de alt parte, investiia specific trebuie calculat pentru fiecare zcmnt n parte. n cazul n care calculele de eficien se refer la exploatarea mai multor zcminte, investiia specific se va calcula ca o medie ponderat a investiiilor adic,
I spm =

On the other hand, the specific investment must be calculated for each reservoir separately. If efficiency calculations refer to the exploitation of several oil deposits, the specific investment will be calculated as a weighted average of each specific investment related to each hydrodynamic unit or deposit, with production obtained from them, namely
n

specifice

aferente

fiecrei

uniti

hidrodinamice sau zcmnt, cu producia obinut din ele,

n

I spi Qi
i =1

Q
i =1

(9.5)

I spm =

I
i =1 n i =1

spi

Qi
i

(9.5)

Totodat, ca urmare a duratei mari de exploatare a zcmintelor de petrol i gaze (de ordinul a zeci de ani), pe
110

In addition, as a result of the long period of time needed to exploit oil and gas deposits (tens of years) on the

de o parte, i a variaiei n timp a investiiei specifice n funcie de condiiile geologice de lucru, pe de alt parte, n vederea scurtrii timpului de imobilizare a investiiilor i a diminurii efectului lui negativ, investiia specific trebuie calculat n dou variante: luarea n considerare a duratei n care se exploateaz cea mai mare parte din rezerva confirmat (de exemplu, 10 ani); luarea n considerare a duratei totale de exploatare a zcmntului. n acelai timp, exploatarea eficient a zcmintelor de petrol i gaze, indiferent de scopul forajului, presupune actualizarea investiiei aferent acestuia. n acest sens se impune actualizarea investiiei specifice att la nivel de ramur, ct i la nivel de ntreprindere, conform relaiei:
Id +I s , N

one hand, and of the time variation in the specific investment due to the geological working conditions on the other hand, in order to shorten the time required to immobilize investments and reduce its negative effect, the specific investment must be calculated in two ways: taking into account the exploitation duration required by most of the confirmed reserves (for example 10 years); taking into account the total exploitation duration of the deposit. Moreover, the efficient exploitation of oil and gas deposits, irrespective of the purpose of drilling, involves updating its specific investment. That is why it is necessary to update the specific investment at both sector and enterprise level, according to the relation:
Id +I s , N

I spa =

(9.6)

I spa =

(9.6)

n care: Ispa este investiia specific actualizat;

111

where: Ispa is the updated specific investment;

 coeficientul de actualizare a investiiilor. Totui, cum investiia specific nu ine seama efectiv de durata de exploatare a zcmintelor i, prin aceasta, de cheltuielile aferente de exploatare, se poate aprecia c acest indicator nu exprim n ntregime eficiena economic a investiiilor necesare exploatrii zcmintelor de petrol i gaze. b. Costul unitar Costul unitar reprezint raportul dintre cheltuielile cu munca vie i munca materializat (necesare exploatrii unui zcmnt) i cumulativul de petrol i gaze extras. Aadar, costul unitar este un indicator mai complex dect investiia specific, ntruct ine seama att de volumul de investiii I ct i de cheltuielile de exploatare Ch. Mrimea lui va determina, la un moment dat, limita economic de exploatare a zcmntului, definindu-se astfel factorul de extracie (desigur, se va avea n permanen n vedere preul de vnzare al barilului sau al tonei de iei). b.

investment update coefficient. However, as the specific investment actually ignores the exploitation duration of oil deposits and consequently the resulting exploitation costs, we can say that this indicator does not fully express the economic efficiency of investments necessary for the oil and gas exploitation. Unit Cost

The unit cost is the ratio of living labour costs plus materialized labour (necessary for the exploitation of a deposit) to the cumulative quantity of extracted oil and gas. Therefore, the unit cost is a more complex indicator than the specific investment because it takes into account both the amount of investment I and the exploitation expenses Ch. At some point, its value will determine the exploitation economic limit of the deposit, thus defining the extraction factor (of course, the sale price for the barrel or ton of crude oil will always be taken into consideration).

112

Relaia general de calcul a costului unitar este:

p= I + Ch , N

The general relation for the calculation of the unit cost is:
p= I + Ch , N

(9.7)

(9.7)

sau, ca indicator valoric,

p= I + Ch , Pm

or as a value indicator, (9.8)

p= I + Ch , Pm

(9.8)

unde Pm reprezint producia marf exprimat n preuri de livrare. Cum

I = I sp , N Ch = Ce , N

where Pm represents the commodity production expressed in delivery prices. As

(9.9)

I = I sp , N

Ch = Ce , N

(9.9)

rezult c: p = Isp + Ce, unde Ce reprezint costul unitar al exploatrii. n cazul exploatrii fr injecie,
Ce = a + C + ae , D

therefore p = Isp + Ce, where Ce represents the unit cost of exploitation. For the case of the exploitation without injection, (9.10)
Ce = a + C + ae , D

(9.10)

unde: a reprezint costul unitar al tratrii ieiului, lei/t;

113

where a represents the unit cost of crude oil treatment, lei/t;

C costul pe sond lun, lei/SL; D debitul, t/SL; ae costul unitar al energiei, lei/t. Dac este vorba de exploatare cu injecie, atunci
Ce = a + C + ae + rg cg , D

C cost per well in a month, lei/SL; D flow, t/SL; ae unit cost of energy, lei/t. If we refer to the exploitation with injection, then
Ce = a + C + ae + rg cg , D

(9.11)

(9.11)

n care: rg este raia de injecie a gazelor, m3/t; cg costul unitar al gazelor injectate, lei/m3. Dup perioada n care investiiile s-au amortizat, costul unitar pentru cele dou situaii devine
p = Ce = a + C , D

where: rg is the ratio of gas injection, m3/t; cg unit cost of injected gases, lei/m3. After the period in which investments have been amortized, the unit cost for the two situations is (9.12)
p = Ce = a + C , D

(9.12)

respectiv
p = Ce = a + C + rg c g . D

that is (9.13)
p = Ce = a + C + rg c g . D

(9.13)

inndu-se seama de specificul industriei extractive de petrol declinul de producie -, se impune calculul
114

Taking into account the specificity of the oil extraction industry the decline of production the calculation of the

evoluiei costului unitar n timp (t = 1 n): p1 = Isp + Ce1 p2 = Isp + Ce2 pn = Isp + Cen Scderea debitului D i a costului C, respectiv a raiei rg, nseamn o cretere a costului unitar p n timp. Costul unitar calculat pe fiecare unitate hidrodinamic n parte va permite, la rndul su, calculul costului unitar pe fiecare unitate organizatoric. n acest sens, se va proceda la calculul costului unitar ponderat cu producia extras din unitile hidrodinamice respective, adic
p=
n

unit cost evolution is required (t = 1 n): p1 = Isp + Ce1 (9.14) p2 = Isp + Ce2 pn = Isp + Cen The decrease in flow D and cost C, respectively in ratio rg, means an increase in the unit cost p over time. The unit cost calculated for each hydrodynamic unit separately will allow, in its turn, calculating the unit cost for each organizational unit. In this respect, we will calculate the weighted unit cost with the production extracted from the respective hydrodynamic units, that is
n

(9.14)

p j N j
j =1 n

N
j =1

(9.15)

p=

p
j =1 n j =1

N j

,
j

(9.15)

relaie n care: Nj reprezint cumulativul de petrol extras

115

relation in which: Nj represents the cumulative quantity of

din unitatea hidrodinamic j; n numrul unitilor hidrodinamice; pj costul unitar aferent fiecrei uniti hidrodinamice j, lei/t. inndu-se seama de particularitile eficienei economice a investiiilor aferente exploatrii zcmintelor de petrol i gaze, respectiv de necesitatea asigurrii reproduciei fondurilor i a capacitii de producie, costul unitar la nivel de ntreprindere sau ramur trebuie recalculat astfel:
p = I sp ( a ) + I sp ( d ) + Ce ,

petroleum extracted from the hydrodynamic unit j; n the number of hydrodynamic units; pj the unit cost for each hydrodynamic unit j, lei/t. Taking into account the particularities of the economic efficiency of investments for the exploitation of oil and gas deposits, namely the need to ensure the reproduction/reinvestment of funds and the production capacity, the unit cost at a branch or enterprise level must be recalculated as follows: (9.16)
p = I sp ( a ) + I sp ( d ) + Ce ,

(9.16)

I sp ( a ) = I sp ,
relaii n care:

(9.17)

I sp ( a ) = I sp ,

(9.17)

relations in which: Isp(a) represents the specific investment updated; Isp(d) specific investment related to the production decline;
116

Isp(a) reprezint investiia specific actualizat; Isp(d) investiia specific aferent declinului de producie;

 coeficientul de actualizare a investiiei. Reproducia fondurilor va fi asigurat, cu prioritate, de coeficientul de actualizare a investiiei specifice, iar a capacitii de producie de cota aferent declinului. c. Costul suplimentar (marginal) Costul marginal exprim raportul de cheltuieli, directe i indirecte, determinat de creterea cu o unitate a volumului produciei. Cheltuielile directe sunt cele care pot fi repartizate pe unitatea de produs. De exemplu, la foraj, avem cheltuieli directe cu sparea, tubarea, cimentarea etc. Cheltuielile sunt cele care un pot fi repartizate pe unitatea de produs. Ele pot fi de secie sau de ntreprindere: cheltuieli generale de administraie, cheltuieli cu vnzarea i distribuia, costuri financiare, depreciere, amortisment etc.

investment update coefficient. The reproduction of funds will be provided primarily by the update coefficient of the specific investment and the reproduction of the production capacity by the decline ratio. c. Additional (marginal) Cost The marginal cost expresses the ratio of direct and indirect expenses, being determined by an increase of one unit in the volume of production. Direct expenses are those that can be distributed per product unit. For example, in the case of drilling, there are direct expenses related to boring, tubing, cementing, etc. Expenses are those that cannot be distributed per product unit. They may belong to a department or to the enterprise, and can be: general administration expenses, selling and distribution expenses, financial costs, depreciation, amortization, etc.

117

d. Timpul de recuperare a investiiilor Timpul dup care investiiile I se recupereaz din venitul net actual Vna,
I I , = Vna ( pv p) Q

d. Investment return time The period of time after which investments I are recovered from the current/ actual net income Vna, is defined as
tr = I I , = Vna ( pv p) Q

(9.18)

tr =

(9.18)

where: unde: pv este preul de vnzare (livrare), lei/t; p costul unitar, lei/t; Q producia anual, t/an. Aceast relaie ar putea fi utilizat cu succes n condiiile n care producia Q i venitul net actual Vna ar fi constante n timp. Ori, aa cum am mai menionat, specificul industriei extractive de petrol declinul de producie - presupune o scdere n timp a debitului i o cretere a cheltuielilor de exploatare, ceea ce nseamn o cretere a costului unitar n timp i, prin aceasta, o scdere a venitului net actual. Prin urmare, cu ajutorul relaiei (9.18) s-ar putea
118

pv is the selling (delivery) price, lei / t; p unit cost, lei / t; Q annual production, t/year. This relation could be used successfully if the production Q and the current net income Vna would be constant over time. Or, as we have mentioned, the specificity of the oil extraction industry the decline of production implies a decrease in flow over time and an increase in exploitation expenses, which means an increase in the unit cost over time and thereby a decrease in the current net income. Therefore, by using relation (9.18) we may determine the average time necessary for investment returns, an

determina timpul mediu de recuperare a investiiilor, indicator, care, evident, nu este concludent. De aceea, timpul de recuperare a investiiilor se determin pe cale grafic. Se reprezint variaia venitului cumulativ Vn i a volumului de investiii I n timp. Din intersecia celor dou curbe rezult timpul de recuperare a investiiilor tr (fig. 9.1).

indicator which is obviously not conclusive. For this reason, the time of the investment return is determined by means of a graph. It shows the variation of the cumulative income Vn and the investment volume I over time. The time of the return on the investment recovery period/time results from the intersection of the two curves (Fig. 9.1).

Fig. 9.1. Determinarea grafic a timpului de recuperare a investiiilor

Fig. 9.1. Graphic determination of the return on investment period/time

e. Multiplicatorul investiiilor Prin definiie, multiplicatorul investiiilor

K= V , I

e. Investment Multiplication By definition, investment multiplication

K=
119

(9.19)

V , I

(9.19)

n care: V reprezint creterea venitului (produciei); I creterea volumului de investiii. f. Rentabilitatea Rentabilitatea este un indicator complex care ine seama, pe de o parte, de cheltuielile aferente exploatrii zcmintelor de hidrocarburi pentru diverse niveluri de producie, iar pe de alt parte, de beneficiile obinute n urma acestora, beneficii care in seama de calitatea petrolului prin valorificarea pe piaa intern i extern, precum i de cantitile de petrol i gaze livrate n afara schelei de extracie. Rentabilitatea
R= B 100 , pv

where: V represents the increase in income (production); I increase in the investment volume. f. Profitability Profitability is a complex indicator which, on the one hand, takes into account the costs of the exploitation of hydrocarbon deposits at various levels of production, and on the other hand, the benefits derived from this exploitation, benefits that take into account the quality of crude oil by selling it on the domestic and foreign market, as well as the quantities of oil and gas delivered outside the drilling scaffold. Profitability (9.20)
R= B 100 , pv

(9.20)

n care: B reprezint beneficiul cumulativ:

B = ( pv p ) Q ,

where: B represents the cumulative benefit:

B = ( pv p ) Q , 120

(9.21)

(9.21)

pv preul de valorificare (evident, se va avea n vedere att valorificarea pe piaa intern ct i pe cea extern); p costul unitar. Rentabilitatea (gradul de rentabilitate) se poate exprima n mai multe moduri: - profitul obinut pe produs; - profitul obinut la 100 uniti monetare (u.m.); - profitul obinut la 100 u.m. capital folosit. g. Cursul de revenire Cursul de revenire exprim eficiena operaiunilor de export i import. Astfel: pentru operaiile de export:
Cre = pvv , pe

pv cost recovery (obviously, both domestic and foreign market will be considered); p unit cost. Profitability (the degree of profitability) can be expressed in several ways: - profit per product; - profit corresponding to 100 monetary units (m.u.); - profit corresponding to 100 m.u. of used capital. g. The Rate of Return The rate of return/recovery rate expresses the efficiency of export and import operations. Thus: for export operations:

(9.22)

Cre =

pvv , pe

(9.22)

pentru operaiile de import:

Cri = pi , pvv

for import operations: (9.23)

Cri = pi , pvv

(9.23)

121

n care: pvv reprezint preul n valut; pe preul complet de export, lei; pi preul intern al produsului importat, lei. h. Actualizarea investiiilor Metoda pleac de la premisa c un leu investit ast zi nu este egal cu un leu primit mine, mai ales atunci cnd este vorba de risc i incertitudine (cazul industriei extractive de petrol i gaze) i de o tranzi ie care nu se mai termin :
1 1 , (1 + i )n

where: pvv is the price in foreign currency; pe full export price, lei ; pi domestic price of the imported product, lei. h. Updating Investments The method starts from the premise that one leu invested today is not equal to one leu that you will receive tomorrow, especially when it comes to risk and uncertainty (as in the oil and gas extraction industry) and to a neverending transition: (9.24)
1 1 , (1 + i )n

(9.24)

n care: i reprezint indicele de actualizare, % ; n timpul la care ne raportm. Metoda va fi dezvoltat n subcapitolul urmtor 9.3.

where: i is the update index, %; n the period of time taken into consideration. The method will be developed in chapter 9.3.

122

9.3. Metoda Discount Cash Flow (DCF) de estimare a investiiilor, cheltuielilor i veniturilor
Metoda modern folosit pe plan mondial este cunoscut sub numele de Discount Cash Flow (DCF) i i propune s reflecte corect toate micrile, respectiv intrrile i ieirile din sistemul economico-financiar, astfel nct diferena dintre acestea s pun n eviden ctigul sau pierderea. Caracteristica de baz a metodei DCF consist n ealonarea n timp a investiiilor, cheltuielilor i veniturilor, respective folosirea actualizrii. Algoritmul de calcul al metodei DCF este urmtorul: 1. Se calculeaz volumul brut: VB = Qtpvt + Qgpvg + Qgzpvgz, unde: Qt, Qg, Qgz reprezint produciile de iei, gaze, respectiv gazolin;
123

9.3. The Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF) of Estimating Investment, Expenses and Revenue
The modern method used worldwide is known as the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and aims to accurately reflect all economic movements, namely the inputs and outputs of the economic and financial system so that the difference between them reveal the gain or loss. The basic feature of the DCF method consists in the timing of investments, expenses and income, that is to say, updating the figures. The calculation algorithm of the DCF method is the following: 1. The gross volume is calculated as follows:

(9.25)

VB = Qtpvt + Qgpvg + Qgzpvgz, where:

(9.25)

Qt, Qg, Qgz represent the production of oil, gas and gasoline;

pvt, pvg, pvgz preurile de vnzare pentru iei, gaze, respectiv gazolin. 2. Calculul venitului net nainte de taxare VNIT: VNIT: VNIT = VB Chcash, (9.26) gasoline.

pvt, pvg, pvgz selling prices for oil, gas and

2. The calculation of the net income before taxation VNIT = VB Chcash, (9.26)

n care Chcash reprezint aa zisele cheltuieli cash: taxe + cheltuieli specifice. Taxe: a. Redevena R reprezint o cot din venitul brut care se pltete proprietarului subsolului: R = (1/8 1/6) VB. (9.27)

where Chcash represents the so-called cash expenses: taxes + specific costs. Taxes: a. Royalties R represent a share of gross income paid to the owners subsoil: R = (1/8 1/6) VB. (9.27)

b. Taxa ad-valorem Tadv este o cot din venitul brut care se pltete proprietarului terenului: Tadv = (1 2) % VB. (9.28)

b. The ad valorem tax Tadv is a share of gross income paid to the landowner: Tadv = (1 2) % VB. (9.28)

c. Taxa pe producie Tpp. n industria petrolier,

124

c. The production tax Tpp. In the oil industry, this tax

aceast tax variaz de la un stat la altul. Putem s reinem procentele de 4,5 % pentru producia de iei, respectiv 7,5 % pentru producia de gaze: Tpp = 4,5 % VBt + 7,5 % VBg. Cheltuieli specifice: a. Cheltuieli over head Coh: cheltuieli cu personalul de conducere (staff) i cu aparatul funcional. b. Cheltuieli operaionale Chop: cheltuielile curente directe cu materiale, energie, salarii: Chop = Cex Qex, n care: Cex reprezint costul unitar al extraciei, lei/t; Qex producia extras, t. Costul unitar al extraciei Cex se calculeaz cu ajutorul relaiei: Cex = atp + CSL/DSL + ae + rici, (9.31)
125

varies from state to state. We can mention the percentages of 4.5% for the production of oil, and 7.5% for the production of gas:

(9.29)

Tpp = 4,5 % VBt + 7,5 % VBg. Specific expenses:

(9.29)

a. Overhead expenses Coh: costs associated with the managing and functional staff. b. Operating expenses Chop: direct current expenses on materials, energy, and wages:

(9.30)

Chop = Cex Qex, where:

(9.30)

Cex is the unit cost of extraction, lei / t; Qex production extracted, t. The unit cost of extraction Cex is calculated by using the relation: Cex = atp + CSL/DSL + ae + rici, (9.31)

unde: atp reprezint costul unitar de tratare-pompare, lei/t; CSL costul pe sond-lun, lei/SL; DSL debitul pe sond-lun, t/SL; ae costul unitar al energiei (dac este cazul), lei/t; ri raia de injecie a fluidului, m3/t; ci costul unitar al fluidului injectat, lei/m3. 3. Calculul venitului net taxabil VNT: VNT = VNIT DDA, (9.32)

where: atp is the unit cost of treatment and pumping, lei / t; CSL cost per well-month, lei / SL; DSL flow per well-month, t/SL; ae unit cost of energy (if necessary); ri ratio of fluid injection, m3/t; ci unit cost of injected fluid, lei/m3. 3. Calculation of the net taxable income VNT: VNT = VNIT DDA, (9.32)

unde DDA reprezint aa numitele cheltuieli noncash: depletare + amortizare. Cheltuielile non-cash sunt cheltuieli cu valoare rezidual, adic i transmit treptat valoarea n cursul anilor de funcionare. Amortizarea se aplic ntregului capital investit pentru lucrrile de construcii-montaje, construcia de
126

where the DDA is the so-called non-cash expenses: depletion + depreciation. Non-cash expenses are the expenses on residual value that is they gradually transmit their value during the operational years. Depreciation applies to the entire capital invested for construction and assembly works, construction of wells and

sonde i echipamentele de fund i de suprafa. Sumele se vor repartiza pe o perioad de timp dat de uzura fizic i moral a echipamentelor. Depletarea constituie o particularitate a industriei extractive de petrol i gaze definit prin cot i cost. Ambele noiuni i propun crearea unei provizii financiare n vederea eliminrii riscului aferent nedescoperirii de noi rezerve. Din acest punct de vedere, depletarea reprezint sursa de finanare a lucrrilor geologice. Costul descoperirii de noi rezerve se poate calcula aplicndu-se un procent de 15 % venitului brut realizat n urma vnzrii produciei. Pentru stabilirea cotei aferente depletrii, se accept ca maximum 50 % din profit s fie acordat acestei cote. Finalmente, se va acorda depletrii valoarea maxim dintre cota de depletare i costul depletrii.

surface and bottom equipment. The amounts will be distributed over a period of time given by the physical and moral wear of the equipment. Depletion represents a feature of the oil and gas extraction industry, and is defined by the depletion rate and the cost of depletion. Both concepts aim to create a financial provision to eliminate the risk related to the discovery of new reserves. From this standpoint, depletion represents the funding source for geological works. The cost of discovering new reserves can be calculated by applying 15% to the gross income resulting from the sale of production. To establish the rate of depletion, 50% of the profit has been accepted to be applied to this rate. Finally, the maximum value between the rate of depletion and the cost of depletion will be applied to depletion.

Se poate, aadar, aprecia c depletarea i amortizarea reprezint surse de autofinanare:

127

We can therefore assume that depletion and depreciation represent self-financing sources: depletion for

depletarea pentru descoperirea de noi rezerve, iar amortizarea pentru ntreinerea i mbuntirea echipamentelor. Este recomandabil s se aleag metoda de calcul prin care acestea vor avea o valoare mai mare. Aceasta nseamn reconstituirea rapid a capitalului, timp mai redus de imobilizare a acestuia, cu alte cuvinte att o vitez mai mare de rotaie a capitalului, ct i posibiliti mai mari de finanare, preferabile creditelor bancare. 4. Calculul venitului net dup taxare VNDT. Se are n vedere relaia: VNDT = VNIT Tprofit, unde Tprofit reprezint taxa pe profit. Taxa pe profit Tprofit se calculeaz ca un procent stabilit de legislaia n vigoare, raportat la venitul impozabil. La rndul lui, venitul impozabil se determin ca diferen ntre veniturile obinute din livrarea bunurilor, respectiv serviciilor prestate i cheltuielile efectuate pentru realizarea acestora ntr-un an fiscal, din care se scad
128

the discovery of new reserves and depreciation for the maintenance and improvement of the equipment. It is advisable to choose the calculation method by which these will have a higher value. This means the rapid reconstruction of the capital base and a shorter period of time necessary to immobilize it, in other words both a higher speed of the capital rotation and higher financing options, which are preferred to bank loans. 4. Calculating the Net Income after Taxation: VNDT = VNIT Tprofit, where Tprofit is the tax on profit. The profit tax is calculated as a percentage established by law, related to the taxable income. In its turn, the taxable income is determined as the difference between revenues obtained from delivering supplies or services provided and costs incurred to achieve them in a fiscal year, minus the non-taxable income, and plus nondeductible (9.33)

(9.33)

veniturile

neimpozabile

se

adaug

cheltuielile

expenses. Therefore,

nedeductibile. Aadar, Tprofit = % VNT. (9.34)

Tprofit = % VNT.

(9.34)

5. Calcularea profitului Net Cash Flow NCF: NCF = VNDT I, unde I reprezint investiia. (9.35)

5. Profit calculation Net Cash Flow NCF: NCF = VNDT I, where I represents investment. (9.35)

Actualizarea investiiilor
Actualizarea investiiilor nseamn a aplica, pe o scar a timpului, factorul de actualizare asupra profitului NCF obinut. Aadar, metoda ia n considerare un element esenial: investiia nu are numai o dimensiune cantitativ, ci i una temporal (ealonarea n timp a investiiilor i a veniturilor). n aceste condiii se determin factorul de actualizare (v. i relaia 9.24)
129

Updating Investments
Updating investments means applying, on a time scale, the update factor to the obtained profit NCF. Thus, the method takes into account an essential element: the investment is not only a quantitative dimension, but also a temporal one (timing of investment and income). The update factor is determined under these conditions (see relation 9.24 too):

fa =

1 , (1 + i )n

(9.36)

fa =

1 , (1 + i )n

(9.36)

unde: i reprezint rata de actualizare, %; n timpul la care ne raportm, ani. Pe de alt parte, i = id + ii + ir, unde: id este rata de actualizare a dobnzii; ii rata inflaiei; ir rata de risc. Profitul actualizat (Net Cash Flow actualizat) este NCFA = NCF fa. Suma profiturilor actualizate
130

where i is the update rate, %; n the time to which we refer, years. On the other hand, (9.37) i = id + ii + ir, where id is the update interest rate; ii inflation rate; ir risk rate. The updated profit (updated Net Cash Flow) is NCFA = NCF fa. The sum of updated profits (9.38) (9.37)

(9.38)

 NCFAi = NCFA1 + NCFA2 + ... + NCFAn ,

i =1

(9.39)

NCFA
i =1

= NCFA1 + NCFA2 + ... + NCFAn ,

(9.39)

unde NCFAn reprezint profitul actualizat obinut n anul n. Aplicaia 9.1 O companie dorete s investeasc 5 milioane dolari n dezvoltarea unui cmp petrolifer. Veniturile nete obinute dup taxare, corespunztoare urmtorilor trei ani, sunt prezentate n tabelul 9.1. Se cere s se determine suma profiturilor actualizate, dup trei ani, pentru o rat de actualizare de 17 %.
Tabelul 9.1. Datele problemei 9.1 Anul 0 1 2 3 Investiia, I 106 $ 5 VNDT 106 $ 0 2 2 3

where NCFAn is the updated profit obtained in the year n. Application 9.1 A company wants to invest $ 5 million on developing an oil field. The net incomes obtained after taxation, corresponding to the following three years, are shown in Table 9.1. Find the sum of the updated profits after three years corresponding to an update rate of 17 %.
Table 9.1. The data of problem 9.1. Year 0 1 2 3 Investment, I 106 $ 5 VNDT 106 $ 0 2 2 3

131

Soluie. Se calculeaz, mai nti, cu ajutorul relaiei (9.36), factorul de actualizare pentru fiecare an:
f a0 = 1 1 = = 1, 0 (1 + i ) (1 + 0,17 )0 1 1 = = 0,85 , 1 (1 + i ) (1 + 0,17 )1 1 1 = = 0,73 , 2 (1 + i ) (1 + 0,17 )2 1 1 = = 0,62 . 3 (1 + i ) (1 + 0,17 )3

Solution Firstly, we calculate the update factor for each year using relation (9.36)
f a0 = 1 1 = = 1, 0 (1 + i ) (1 + 0,17 )0 1 1 = = 0,85 , 1 (1 + i ) (1 + 0,17 )1 1 1 = = 0,73 , 2 (1 + i ) (1 + 0,17 )2 1 1 = = 0,62 . 3 (1 + i ) (1 + 0,17 )3

f a1 =

f a1 =

f a2 =

f a2 =

f a3 =

f a3 =

Profitul (Net Cash Flow) se determin cu ajutorul relaiei (11): NCF = VNDT I. Astfel, se obin valorile: An 0: 0 5 = -5, An 1: 2 0 = 2, An 2: 2 0 = 2, An 3: 3 0 = 3.

Secondly, the profit (Net Cash Flow) is determined by means of relation (11) = VNDT I. Thus, the following values are obtained: Year 0: 0 5 = -5, Year 1: 2 0 = 2, Year 2: 2 0 = 2, Year 3: 3 0 = 3.

132

n aceste condiii, conform relaiei (9.38), profitul actualizat: NCFA0 = NCF0 fa0 = -5 1 = -5, NCFA1 = NCF1 fa1 = 2 0,85 = 1,70, NCFA2 = NCF2 fa2 = 2 0,73 = 1,46, NCFA3 = NCF3 fa3 = 2 0,62 = 1,86, Suma profiturilor actualizate este

Under these conditions, according to relation (9.38), the updated profit is: NCFA0 = NCF0 fa0 = -5 1 = -5, NCFA1 = NCF1 fa1 = 2 0,85 = 1,70, NCFA2 = NCF2 fa2 = 2 0,73 = 1,46, NCFA3 = NCF3 fa3 = 2 0,62 = 1,86, The sum of the updated profits is:

NCFAi = NCFA0 + NCFA1 + NCFA2 + NCFA3 = 0,02.

i =0

NCFA
i =0

= NCFA0 + NCFA1 + NCFA2 + NCFA3 = 0,02.

Rezultatele sunt sintetizate n tabelul 9.2.

The results are summarized in table 9.2.

Tabelul 9.2. Tabel centralizator pentru problema 9.1

Anul 0 1 2 3 I 106 $ 5 VNDT 106 $ 0 2 2 3 NCF 106 $ -5 2 2 3 fa % 1,00 0,85 0,73 0,62 NCFA 106 $ 5,00 1,70 1,46 1,86

Table 9.2. Summary table for problem 9.1.

Year 0 1 2 3 I 106 $ 5 VNDT 106 $ 0 2 2 3 NCF 106 $ -5 2 2 3 fa % 1,00 0,85 0,73 0,62 NCFA 106 $ 5,00 1,70 1,46 1,86

NCFA
106 $ 5,00 3,30 1,84 0,02

NCFA
106$ 5,00 3,30 1,84 0,02

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Din tabelul 9.2 se poate observa c suma profiturilor actualizate devine pozitiv n timpul luat n calcul, deci investiia se recupereaz din profit. Mai precis, investiia iniial de 5 milioane dolari se recupereaz ntre anul 3 i 4.

As can be seen from table 9.2, the sum of the updated profits is positive for the period of time indicated, so the investment is recovered from the profit. More specifically, the initial investment of $ 5 million is recovered between year 3 and year 4.

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BIBLIOGRAFIE SELECTIV
1. Aldea, Ghe., 135 ani de activitate n domeniul forajului sondelor i extraciei ieiului n Romnia, Arhiva I.C.P.T. Cmpina, 1992. 2. Avram, L., Elemente de managementul activitii de foraj, Editura Universal Cartfil, 1998. 3. Coroian Stoicescu, C., Management. Teorii i tehnici, Editura Elapis, Ploieti, 1998. 4. Coroian Stoicescu, C., Bazele fundamentale ale managementului, Editura Universitii din Ploieti, 2003. 5. Ivnu, Ghe., Repere petrochimice, Editura Universitii Petrol-Gaze din Ploieti, 2006. 6. Ivnu, Ghe., Antonescu, N. N. .a., Industria de petrol i gaze din Romnia, Editura AGIR, Bucureti, 2008. 7. McCollum, J.K., Bnacu, C.S., Project Management a practical approch, Editura Universitar Bucureti, 2005. 8. Technologies cls 2005, Les Editions de lIndustrie, Paris, 2005. 9. Avram, L., Foraj marin, Editura Universitii din Ploieti, 2005. 10. Albu, M., Management. ndrumar de laborator, Editura Universitii din Ploieti, 2004. 135

SELECTIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Aldea, Ghe., 135 ani de activitate n domeniul forajului sondelor i extraciei ieiului n Romnia, Arhiva I.C.P.T. Cmpina, 1992. 2. Avram, L., Elemente de managementul activitii de foraj, Editura Universal Cartfil, 1998. 3. Coroian Stoicescu, C., Management. Teorii i tehnici, Editura Elapis, Ploieti, 1998. 4. Coroian Stoicescu, C., Bazele fundamentale ale managementului, Editura Universitii din Ploieti, 2003. 5. Ivnu, Ghe., Repere petrochimice, Editura Universitii PetrolGaze din Ploieti, 2006. 6. Ivnu, Ghe., Antonescu, N. N. .a., Industria de petrol i gaze din Romnia, Editura AGIR, Bucureti, 2008. 7. McCollum, J.K., Bnacu, C.S., Project Management a practical approch, Editura Universitar Bucureti, 2005. 8. Technologies cls 2005, Les Editions de lIndustrie, Paris, 2005. 9. Avram, L., Foraj marin, Editura Universitii din Ploieti, 2005. 10. Albu, M., Management. ndrumar de laborator, Editura Universitii din Ploieti, 2004.

11. Nergaard, A., Strategies & Technologies for the Atlantic Margin Ultra-Deep, Conference Deep Water International, November, 2002. 12. Aid, P., Deepwater drilling equipment requirements, Kingdom drilling, March, 2001. Periodice. Jurnalul de Petrol i Gaze; World Oil; Journal Petroleum Technology; Oil and Gas Journal; Offshore; Revue de l`Institut Franais du Ptrole (2000 2010).

11. Nergaard, A., Strategies & Technologies for the Atlantic Margin Ultra-Deep, Conference Deep Water International, November, 2002. 12. Aid, P., Deepwater drilling equipment requirements, Kingdom drilling, March, 2001. Periodic. Jurnalul de Petrol i Gaze; World Oil; Journal Petroleum Technology; Oil and Gas Journal; Offshore; Revue de l`Institut Franais du Ptrole (2000 2010).

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