MINISTERUL EDUCAIEI, CERCETRII, TINERETULUI I SPORTULUI UNIVERSITATEA VALAHIA DIN TRGOVITE

IOSUD COALA DOCTORAL DE TIINE ECONOMICE I UMANISTE Domeniul MANAGEMENT

REZUMAT TEZ DE DOCTORAT MANAGEMENTUL CRIZELOR I CONFLICTELOR N EUROPA DE S-E FACTOR DETERMINANT AL STABILITII ECONOMICE
CONDUCTOR DE DOCTORAT: Prof. univ. dr. Ion PRGARU Doctorand: Nicolae ROTARU
TRGOVITE 2012
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Sorinel

Pagin lsat intenionat goal

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CUPRINS
CUPRINS............................................................................................................... 3 CUPRINSUL TEZEI DE DOCTORAT ........................................................................ 4 INTRODUCERE ..................................................................................................... 7 Conflicte n Balcani .......................................................................................... 9 Terorismul ..................................................................................................... 10 Criza energetic ............................................................................................. 11 Criza economic mondial ............................................................................ 12 Rolul UE n managementul crizelor i conflictelor ............................................ 16 Organizaia Mondial a Comerului .................................................................. 26 Romnia n actualul context de securitate ........................................................ 27 Lista lucrrilor publicate .................................................................................... 30 BIBLIOGRAFIE .................................................................................................... 31 CURRICULUM VITAE .......................................................................................... 50 PhD THESIS TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................. 53 Introduction ................................................................................................... 55 Conflicts in the Balkans ................................................................................. 58 Terrorism ....................................................................................................... 59 The energy crisis ............................................................................................ 60 World economic crisis ................................................................................... 61 The European Unions role in crisis and conflict management ..................... 64 NATOs role in crisis and conflict management ............................................ 69 World Trade Organization ............................................................................. 73 Romania and the present security context ................................................... 75 CURRICULUL VITAE ........................................................................................ 78

CUPRINSUL TEZEI DE DOCTORAT

CAPITOLUL 1. METODOLOGIE, METODE I INSTRUMENTE DE CERCETARE CAPITOLUL 2. CRIZE I CONFLICTE N EUROPA DE SUD-EST 2.1. Abordare teoretic a unor noiuni 2.2. Ameninri n sfera securitii n Europa de S-E 2.2.1. Conflicte n Balcani 2.2.1.1. Bosnia i Heregovina 2.2.1.2. Kosovo 2.2.1.3. Macedonia 2.2.1.4. Serbia, Muntenegru 2.2.1.5. Consecine i riscuri 2.2.2. Terorismul 2.2.3. Criza energetic 2.2.4. Criza economic mondial 4

2.3. Tendina de globalizare a crizelor i conflictelor CAPITOLUL 3. STRATEGII DE MANAGEMENT AL CRIZELOR I CONFLICTELOR 3.1. Abordare teoretic a managementului crizelor i conflictelor 3.2 Rolul UE n managementul crizelor i conflictelor 3.2.1 Consideraii generale asupra capacitii UE de asigurare a securitii globale 3.2.2. Conceptul UE de management al crizelor 3.2.3. Managementul crizelor i conflictelor n Europa de S-E 3.2.4. De la pactul de stabilitate pentru Europa de Sud-Est la Consiliul Cooperrii Regionale 3.3. Rolul NATO n managementul crizelor i conflictelor 3.3.1. Consideraii generale asupra capacitii NATO de asigurare a securitii globale 3.3.2. Conceptul NATO de management al crizelor 3.3.3. Managementul crizelor i conflictelor n Europa de S-E 3.4. Relaia UE-NATO 3.5. Organizaia Mondial a Comerului CAPITOLUL 4. ROMNIA N ACTUALUL CONTEXT DE SECURITATE CAPITOLUL 5. CONTRIBUII PERSONALE CAPITOLUL 6. CONCLUZII BIBLIOGRAFIE BIBLIOGRAFIE ELECTRONIC LISTA ABREVIERILOR LISTA TABELELOR 5

LISTA FIGURILOR Anexa nr. 1 Atacuri euate, dejucate i executate n 2011 Anexa nr. 2 Asistena financiar acordat de UE statelor din Balcanii de vest aflate n procedurile de preaderare Anexa. nr. 3 Principalii indicatori macroeconomici pentru statele candidate sau aflate n procesul de pre-aderare la UE Anexa nr. 4 Membrii Consiliului Cooperrii Regionale Anexa nr. 5 Runde de negocieri GATT Anexa nr. 6 Reglementrile OMC Anexa nr. 7 Previziuni principale pentru Romnia

INTRODUCERE
Lucrarea urmrete continuarea i adncirea demersurilor tiinifice asupra unor tematici ce au fost anterior abordate de autor, precum i extinderea analizei la alte aspecte ce au devenit de importana major ntre timp, precum criza energetic i cea economic, subiecte ce domin agenda de lucru a principalelor organizaii internaionale i a guvernelor naionale din Europa de Sud-Est i nu numai. Lucrarea i propune o abordare unitar a principalelor ameninri la adresa securitii n zona continentului european, a impactului pe care acestea l au, a modului n care se realizeaz managementul acestora, cu scopul de a se putea ntrevedea perspectivele acestor fenomene i a schia aciunile ce ar putea fi adoptate n vederea asigurrii securitii i stabilitii n zona Europei de Sud-Est. Prezenta lucrare i propune realizarea unei teorii generale a modului n care se realizeaz managementul situaiilor de criz i al conflictelor la nivel internaional, de ctre anumite organizaii internaionale ce prezint cel mai mare grad de relevan pentru subiectele analizate i pentru contextul avut n vedere, respectiv UE, NATO i OMC precum i o analiz a impactului pe care l au aciunile sau inaciunea acestor entiti. Istoria umanitii este alctuit dintr-un ir lung de crize, conflicte i rzboaie. De regul, prin infiinarea de organizaii internaionale i regionale, societatea a ncercat prevenirea conflictelor i rezolvarea disputelor prin intermediul unui sistem instituionalizat menit s asigure un climat de securitate i stabilitate. Dup cum se poate observa n capitolele lucrrii,
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globalizarerea aduce cu ea, pe lng beneficii i o serie de neajunsuri, riscuri ce necesit adoptarea de mecanisme i proceduri eficiente pentru prevenirea i managementul crizelor sau a conflictelor. Riscurile apariiei unei confruntri militare tradiionale pe continentul european s-au diminuat semnificativ. Totui se menin anumite fenomene de instabilitate, crize la nivel subregional i tendine de fragmentare, marginalizare sau izolare a unor state. De asemenea, ri din Europa Central, de Est i de Sud-Est se confrunt cu dificulti economice, sociale i politice asociate actualei crize economice, procesului de tranziie spre societatea bazat pe principiile democraiei i ale economiei de pia, ce pot amenina securitatea statelor din regiune. Fragilitatea mediului de securitate din regiunea Europei de Sud-Est este determinat mai ales de factori interni, care in de slaba guvernare a noilor entiti statale aprute la frontiera sudic a UE, caracterizat prin: incapacitatea instituiilor statului de a asigura respectarea legii, instabilitatea economic i ponderea alarmant a economiei subterane, corupia, distribuirea inechitabil a resurselor n cadrul societii, nerespectarea drepturilor omului i minoritilor, meninerea i uneori alimentarea clivajelor etnice i confesionale. n general degradarea situaiei economice preced orice situaie n care securitatea devine o problem a discursului public, aceasta manifestndu -se att ca o consecin direct a respectivei situaii de criz, ct i ca urmare a impactului pe care criza l are la nivel social.

De asemenea, zonele n care instabilitatea politico -militar se cronicizeaz au devenit refugii ideale pentru grupri ale crimei organizate, mercenari, radicali islamiti. Avnd ca baz aceste areale, gruprile sau persoanele respective pot lansa operaiuni criminale i teroriste, cu potenial de risc regional. Lucrarea abordeaz patru mari ameninri la adresa securitii n regiunea Europei de S-E: conflictele etnice din zona Balcanilor, terorismul, criza energetic i criza economic.

Conflicte n Balcani

Trecutul istoric frmntat a creat o conjunctur specific, a cumulat ntr-o arie relativ restrns, din punct de vedere geograf ic, popoare foarte diferite din perspectiv cultural i cu niveluri de dezvoltare economic inegale. Colapsul regimurilor totalitare din Europa Central i de Est a dus la reiterarea diferenelor culturale i religioase care, pn la acel moment, supravieuiser ntr-o form latent. Rzboaiele deschise, dincolo de amploarea pe care au cunoscut-o, au agravat situaia economic, iniial stabil a fostei Iugoslavii, aruncnd rile din zon, cu excepia Sloveniei i Croaiei, pe ultimele locuri n Europa la principalii indicatori macroeconomici. n ciuda faptului c s-au nregistrat o serie de succese n soluionarea crizelor din Albania, Bosnia i Heregovina sau Kosovo, doar intervenia militar, de ultim instan, a pus capt confruntrilor armate.
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Principalii factori interni care au capacitatea de a agrava conflictele etnice din aceast regiune sunt: stagnarea economic, srcia, distribuia inegal a resurselor, guvernarea nedemocratic, discriminarea, ngrdirea drepturilor minoritilor, fluxurile de refugiai, disensiunile de natur etnic, intolerana cultural i religioas, rspndirea armelor de distrugere n mas precum i a armelor mici. Anii de rzboi, veniturile sczute i erodarea instituiilor publice au favorizat dezvoltarea infracionalitii n statele din Balcanii de Vest, reelele de crim organizat din aceast regiune devenind puternice, extrem de violente, facndu-i tot mai mult simit prezena la nivel internaional. O alt problem o reprezint migraia ilegal, gruprile infracionale locale folosind statele din aceast regiune ca rut de tranzit pentru introducerea de imigrani, provenind din Asia i orientul Mijlociu, n UE.

Terorismul

Terorismul constituie unul dintre cele mai periculoase fenomene, fiind ncurajat de curentele fundamentaliste care se sprijin pe starea de frustrare i srcire extrem. Astfel, srcia i statele euate nu reprezint o ameninare direct la adresa lumii occidentale, dar pot constitui un pericol n msura n care terorismul i armele de distrugere n mas gsesc n aceste teritorii un spaiu fertil pentru a se dezvolta. Terorismul gsete un mediu propice pentru dezvoltare n zonele afectate de conflicte regionale i n statele ce nu i-au
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dezvoltat capacitatea i instrumentele de meninere a legii i ordinii. Srcia poate contribui n mod semnificativ la radicalizarea acestui fenomen ca urmare a faptului c multe persoane i pierd sperana ntr-un viitor mai bun i ncrederea n abilitatea instituiilor statului de a identifica soluii de ieire din criz, organizaiile teroriste exploatnd aceste nemulimiri dau o justificare religioas aciunilor lor. n cadrul spaiului UE, ameninrile teroriste semnificative sunt generate nu numai de organizaiile deja cunoscute ci i de un numr crescnd de actori ce acioneaz pe cont propriu (teroriti fr afiliere ce acioneaz dup propriile planuri) i grupuri mici. Aceast dezvoltare este facilitat de existena Internetului ce implic unele costuri minime i compenseaz pentru lipsa fondurilor necesare operaiunilor directe.

Criza energetic

Alturi de epuizarea resurselor energetice n condiiile unei creteri a consumului de energie la nivel mondial, Europa se confrunt i cu alte aspecte ale crizei energetice. Astfel, la nivel mondial, Rusia dispune de cele mai semnificative rezerve de gaze naturale, locul secund la producia de crbune i locul opt n ceea ce privete rezervele de petrol, fiind, n acelai timp i cel mai mare exportator de gaze naturale i al doilea exportator de petrol. De asemenea, din punctul de vedere al transportului resurselor energetice, Gazprom deine toat infrastructura de transport a gazului natural n Federaia Rus, fiind i singura ntreprindere
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ruseasc autorizat s vnd gaze naturale ruseti n afara granielor Rusiei. nc de la nceputul anilor `90, negocierile energetice cu Rusia au fost afectate de ameninarea tierilor strategice de energie. Chiar dac aceste practici nu erau nd reptate direct ctre statele Uniunii Europene ce cumprau gaze naturale i petrol, nemulumirile partenerilor europeni privesc folosirea de ctre Rusia a energiei ca instrument de presiune extern i lipsa de transparen, livrrile de energie fiind percepute ca nesigure. De asemenea, dup rzboiul declanat mpotriva Irakului, Orientul Mijlociu a devenit un furnizor instabil pentru statele europene ca urmare a faptului c nu a mai avut capacitatea s onoreze cererea ca nainte. n aceast situaie, statele europene au fost nevoite s se ntoarc spre Federaia Rus, consolidnd dependena fa de resursele energetice ale acesteia. Un alt aspect al problemei energetice n Europa se refer la faptul c exist state care depind complet sau aproape complet de importuile de gaz rusesc. n aceast categorie se afl unele state membre UE din estul Europei (Slovacia, Lituania, Finlanda, Bulgaria, Letonia, Estonia), precum i state ce doresc s devin state membre UE ( Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia).

Criza economic mondial

Cnd vorbim de criza economic mondial, avem n vedere rezultatul unui proces, dincolo de dimensiunile geografice ale acestuia, astfel, criza s-a extins din SUA n ntreaga lume, cu o
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vitez fr precedent, de la un sector de activitate, respectiv cel financiar-bancar, la toate sectoarele economiei. Potrivit datelor publicate de Comisia European, criza a afectat toate statele membre UE i, cu excepia Poloniei i Slovaciei, nicio ar nereuind s depeasc recesiunea mai devreme de un an. Cu toate c la mijlocul anului 2009 majoritatea rilor ncepuser revenirea economic, unele state membre UE precum Grecia, Irlanda sau Romnia se aflau n plin recesiune chiar i n 2011, dup trei ani consecutivi de scdere a produciei i veniturilor. Niciun stat membru nu a fost imun la ocurile ce au zguduit economia UE ns unele s-au dovedit a fi mai rezistente. Se poate afirma c acele ri care au contribuit masiv la creterea PIB al Uniunii Europene n perioada de prosperitate, respectiv Germania, Marea Britanie, Polonia i Frana sunt ateptate s rmn, i n continuare, contributori principali, n timp ce Italia i Spania sunt ateptate s ofere contribuii negative n 2012. Dup cum se putea anticipa, piaa locurilor de munc a fost afectat considerabil de actuala criz economic iar acum, cu pai mici, se redreseaz. omajul preocup UE, chiar dac potrivit statisticilor oficiale exist diferene semnificative, din punctul de vedere al ratei omajului, ntre statele membre, de la 4,1 % n Austria, pn la 23,2% n Spania, Romnia avnd rata omajului de 7,5% la finalul anului 2011. Criza a scos la iveal legturile strnse i problemele dintre economiile naionale, n special n zona Euro, n general cele 27 de economii ale Uniunii Europene au un grad ridicat de interdependen. Reformele sau lipsa acestora, ntr-o ar
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afecteaz toate domeniile de activitate i mai mult, criza i numeroase limitri ale cheltuielilor publice au generat numeroase dificulti pentru statele membre UE n a furniza suficiente fonduri pentru infrastructura de baz necesar n domenii precum transporturile sau cel energetic, nu numai pentru dezvoltarea propriilor economii ci i n ceea ce privete participarea pe piaa unic european. n ceea ce privete impactul crizei economice asupra statelor emergente, cu economii slab dezvoltate, cu structuri mcinate de conflicte militare sau civile, i aceste ri particip la globalizare, inclusiv prin intermediul circuitelor economice i schimburilor comerciale, fiind la rndul lor afectate de actuala criz economic. ns, din punctul de vedere al ava ntajelor globalizrii, acestea au fost beneficiare n mai mic msur, fiind asociate de ctre investitori cu instabilitatea politic, social, economic. n aceste condiii, aceste state sunt afectate n mai mare msur de efectele crizei economice, iar relansarea economiilor acestora depinde mai mult de investiiile rilor dezvoltate, pe lng propriile programe de redresare economic. n general, crizele bancare, financiare i economice, prin implicaiile lor asupra mediului economic, conduc n mod nem ijlocit la alterarea condiiilor sociale de via ale populaiei prin: scderea salariilor, pierderea locurilor de munc, reducerea nivelului de trai, nencrederea n perspectivele pe care le-ar putea oferi viitorul apropiat, permanentizarea i acutizarea greutilor de ordin material, mbolnviri, creterea numrului de sinucideri, alterarea relaiilor interumane, proteste sociale, etc.
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Pe lng multitudinea de efecte negative, criza economic are i unele consecine pozitive, care dac vor fi valorificate i perpetuate ar putea contribui, pe termen mediu i lung, la asigurarea stabilitii economice prin aezarea economiei pe baze noi, reale i funcionale. Printre aceste efecte pozitive se numr adoptarea, att de ctre populaie ct i de ctre agenii economici a unui comportament cumptat n ceea ce privete consumul de resurse, precum i scderea general a preurilor, cu precdere a celor ce in de domeniul imobiliar, care nu se justificau din punctul de vedere economic, ci doar speculativ. De asemenea, actuala criza a dat un impuls semnificativ adoptrii i aplicrii unor msuri de restructurare, ce au fost amnate sau evitate pn la acel moment, n diferite domenii de activitate care i dovediser n timp nefuncionalitatea. La nivel naional, al instituiilor statului, managementul situaiilor de criz este reprezentat de ansamblul msurilor i aciunilor stabilite de autoritile cu competene n domeniile cheie pentru soluionarea acestora (guvern, ministere, parlament, alte autoriti i instituii publice centrale i locale) n vederea asigurrii securitii naionale i a restabilirii strii de normalitate social, economic, politic, militar, etc. La nivel internaional, entitile implicate n managementul crizelor sunt, n general, organizaiile i instituiile internaionale dar i guvernele naionale, acestea din urm acionnd fie n nume propriu, fie n baza calitii lor de membri ai unor instituii i organizaii internaionale sau regionale. Crizele i conflictele nu se rezolv de la sine, diminuarea lor n intensitate sau prevenirea acestora nu se poate realiza dect
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prin aciunea concertat a instituiilor abilitate din diferite domenii de activitate, de la nivel naional, regional sau internaional, existente anterior sau create special n vederea soluionrii crizelor i conflictelor. Experienele anterioare ale unor crize i conflicte strilor au determinat comunitatea uman eforturile s neleag identificrii necesitatea unirii i coordonrii eforturilor n vederea aplanrii conflictuale, canalizndu-i strategiilor, metodelor i instituiilor care s poat asigura stingerea sau descurajarea acestor fenomene. De asemenea, numai aciunea concertat de ncetare a crizelor i conflictelor nu mai este suficient pentru asigurarea unui mediu stabil, favorabil dezvoltrii durabile, fiind necesare i activiti de prevenire a acestora. Conceptele de prevenire i de management al crizelor i conflictelor s-au dezvoltat foarte mult de-a lungul timpului, n vederea evitrii consturilor materiale i umane foarte ridicate implicate de soluionarea crizele i conflictelor n desfurare. n aceste condiii, att guvernele naionale ct i organizaiile internaionale i regionale urmresc dezvoltarea, optimizarea i implementarea strategiilor de evitare sau de reducere a costurilor crizelor i conflictelor.

Rolul UE n managementul crizelor i conflictelor

Uniunea European trece printr-un profund proces de reform intern, concomitent cu derularea procedurilor pentru primirea de noi membri. Chiar dac la origine construcia
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european a vizat exclusiv sfera economic, s-a dezvoltat ulterior n aproape toate domeniile de activitate, inclusiv n domeniul securitii, viaa cetenilor europeni fiind afectat n mod direct de deciziile luate n cadrul instituiilor UE. nc de la crearea sa, UE s-a angajat n prevenirea conflictelor, dealtfel Unuinea, n sine, reprezint un proiect conceput n vederea asigurrii pcii i prosperitii. La nivelul UE, se face o delimitare ntre gestionarea crizelor i rezolvarea conflictelor. n accepiunea UE, gestionarea crizelor reprezint setul de aciuni ntreprinse n vederea prevenirii escaladrii crizei pe vertical, prin intensificarea violenelor, i pe orizontal, prin extinderea fenomenului din punct de vedere teritorial. Rezolvarea conflictelor presupune o serie de aciuni, ntreprinse pe termen scurt, pentru a stopa un conflict violent. Cauzele ce stau la baza declanrii unui conflict sau a unei crize sunt, dup cum am mai precizat, foarte variate i complexe, printr-o analiz a cauzelor originare ale acestora putndu -se identifica semnele timpurii ale unuor asemenea fenomene. n acest scop, UE a creat un sistem de avertizare timpurie prin intermediul cruia sunt localizate regiunile unde apar tensiuni. Prin identificarea cauzelor originare care stau la baza acestora, se urmrete soluionarea respectivelor cauze pentru a se evita escaladarea conflictului sau a crizei. Acest instrument la dispoziia UE este reprezentat de reeaua de delegaii ale Comisiei Europene i de centrele de monitorizare ale Uniunii din ntreaga lume.
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n cadrul modelului european de management al crizelor i conflictelor ce in de securitatea i integritatea statelor, pot fi identificate patru faze: 1) edificarea pcii preconflict sau postconflict, n vederea prevenirii conflictelor i crizelor prin msuri structurale pe termen lung; 2) impunerea pcii prin msuri coercitive, msur aplicat n situaii precum agresiunile din afara granielor, meninerea pcii sau intervenia n vederea protejrii drepturilor omului; 3) meninerea pcii prin diplomaia preventiv sau

desfurarea preventiv de fore; 4) restabilirea pcii prin msuri noncoercitive, de cele mai multe ori prin mijloace diplomatice. n accepiunea UE prevenirea conflictului reprezint esena aciunii sale externe, iar pentru realizarea acestui obiectiv Uniunea utilizeaz att asistena pentru dezvoltare i reconstrucia pe termen lung, ct i mijloacele de gestionare a crizelor militare i civile pe termen scurt n vederea asigurrii managementului conflictelor i a situaiilor preconflictuale i postconflictuale. n funcie de problemele ce trebuie gestioante, UE poate folosi ajutorul de dezvoltare cu scopul combaterii srciei i a bolilor, sau folosete acordurile sale comerciale pentru a asigura un acces mai bun pe pieele Uniunii, cu scopul impulsionrii statelor cu probleme economice i sprijinirii rilor n curs de
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dezvoltare. De asemenea, UE poate acorda ajutor tehnic i finaciar n domeni precum guvernarea, sistemul de securitate, justiia, dezvoltarea rural, transporturile, energia, sntatea, etc. Unuinea poate colabora cu alte organizaii internaionale i cu autoritile naionale n vederea combaterii traficului de droguri, arme sau persoane, contrabanda cu diverse bunuri. Nu n ultimul rnd trebuie animtit faptul c UE este foarte activ n domeniul diplomaiei preventive i mediere. n cazul n care se confrunt cu un conflict deschis sau cu situaii postconflictuale, UE urmrete gestionarea crizelor militare i civile, pecum i stabilizarea postconflictual i asistena pentru dezvoltare i reconstrucie pe termen lung. n vederea atingerii acestor obiective, Unuinea face apel la influena sa politic n vederea finalizrii conflictului, aplic termenii de ncetare a focului, de instaurare i meninere a pcii, acord ajutor umanitar i de urgen pentru reconstrucia imediat i pe termen lung. De asemenea, trimite experi pentru supravegherea alegerilor, derulnd, n acelaii timp, proiecte de educare a alegtorilor, sprijin consolidarea sistemului juridic n sensul dezvoltrii statului de drept, promovnd drepturile omului, contribuie la mbuntirea serviciilor de poliie, etc. n ceea ce privete activitatea Uniunii Europene n Balcanii de Vest, n zonele cu conflicte etnice, obiectivul fundamental al acesteia este extinderea zonei de pace, stabilitate i securitate realizate de membrii Uniunii. nvederea atingerii acestui obiectiv, ultimii cincisprezece ani, UE a furnizat n zon un important aj utor
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de ordin financiar, prin intermediul programelor specifice, dar i de ordin militar. UE a pcii n parcurs un aflate proces de n conflict, nvare a n Balcani. la tura

Incapacitatea de a aciona eficient n demersurile de impunere a regiunile evideniat nesatisfctoare a naturii consensuale i civile a UE. Eecul operaiunii Fora Aliat de a obine capitularea rapid a srbilor a contribuit la exacerbarea responsabilitii UE pentru crimele ce au avut loc n aceast regiune i la redeschiderea discuiilor n legtur cu ce ar trebui s fac Uniunea pentru a -i asigura credibilitatea n calitate de actor internaional. Conflictul din Kosovo a oferit o oportunitate pentru UE n ceea ce privete crearea unei Politici Europene de Securitate i Aprare o perative. Dac n plan instituional, criza kosovar a deschis dezbaterea privind instituirea PESA prin Tratatul de la Nisa, n ceea ce privete politica regional, UE a fost nevoit s-i asume calitatea de finanator al procesului de reconstrucie a Europei de Sud-Est prin Pactul de Stabilitate. Dup Acordul de la Dayton, UE a adoptat o tendin consecvent i eficient n abordarea stabilizrii politice i redresrii economice n aceast regiune. Avantajul avut de UE n regiunea Balcanilor este politica de condiionare, foarte eficient n cadrul rilor ce urmresc o viitoare aderare unde att elita politic, ct i populaia sunt dispuse s depun eforturi pentru atingerea acestui obiectiv pe care muli l consider o soluie universal a problemelor. Procesele pozitive din Europa de Sud-Est se datoreaz n mare
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parte perspectivei de integrare european a statelor afectate de conflict, acest fapt a avut un efect stabilizator asupra evoluiilor regionale. Din perspectiva eforturilor UE de combatere a terorismului, se desprinde i ideea consolidrii relaiei transatlantice, cu precdere dup evenimetele din 11 septembrie 2001. Astfel, statele membre UE au contribuit la eradicarea acestui fenomen printr-o serie de instrumente, precum: dezmembrarea reelelor teroriste din Europa, desfurarea de aciuni de prevenire a unor acte teroriste, supravegherea financiar i tierea finanrilor respectivelor grupri, consolidarea sistemului de partajare a informaiilor ntre serviciile secrete i poliie, cooperarea n domeniul informaiilor. La nivelul UE sunt adoptate, coordonate i monitorizate i alte strategii de asigurare a managementului, n diferite domenii de activitate, precum cel economic, bancar, energetic etc., sectoare ce sunt susceptibile de a fi afectate de crize sau de conflicte prin care se urmrete asigurarea prevenirii, gestionrii i rezolvrii respectivelor fenomene. n ceea ce privete politica UE de rspuns la actuala criz economico-financiar, principalele direcii de aciune sunt: asigurarea unui rspuns global la criza financiar, aciuni coordonate la nivel comunitar, msuri de limitare a extinderii crizei, ntrirea reglementrii i supravegherii n domeniul bancar, msuri pentru sprijinirea ntreprinderilor, asigurarea la nivel naional a stabilitii bugetare, a accelerrii reformelor i
21

investiiilor, finanare n domeniul resurselor umane, proteciei sociale, incluziunii, crearea unui sector de cercetare apt s susin economia european. Din perspectiv energetic, alturi de msurile adoptate n sensul diversificrii rutelor energetice, furnizorilor i a resurselor energetice regenerabile, n termeni economici, potrivit datelor publicate de Comisia European, la nivelul anului 2010, Uniunea European este principalul partener comercial al Federaiei Ruse, att n ceea ce privete importurile ct i exporturile. Aceast situaie indic o clar dependen a Rusiei de pia european. La crearea sa n 1949 Organizaia Tratatului Atlanticului de Nord (NATO) percepea Uniunea Sovietic drept principalul adversar al libertii i independenei Europei Occidentale. n prezent, dup aproape 20 de ani de la dispariia URSS, Aliana i continu existena, ns a fost nevoie s se supun unor importante transformri, modificri de concept, s dezvolte chiar o relaie strategic cu Federaia Rus. Obiectivul de baz i permanent al NATO este aprarea libertii i securitii tuturor membrilor si, prin mijloace politice i militare, precum i asigurarea pcii i stabilitii, n condiiile respectrii principiilor Cartei Organizaiilor Unite. Funcionarea organizaiei are ca fundament angajamentul comun i cooperarea mutual ntre statele membre suverane cu scopul de a asigura indivizibilitii securitii pentru toi partenerii, sub forma aprrii colective. Acest lucru se concretizeaz ntr-o completare a

22

eforturilor naionale n confruntarea cu provocrile la adresa securitii. Statele membre au realizat faptul c o criz regional aprut n afara propriilor granie poate reprezenta o posibil ameninare la adresa intereselor i securitii lor, din acest motiv NATO se implic de cte ori apreciaz ca posibil i necesar aciunea sa pentru a preveni crizele, a gestiona i aplana crizele i conflictele deja existente, a stabiliza situaiile post-conflict i n vederea susinerii reconstruciei zonelor afectate. Din punctul de vedere al NATO, managementul crizelor nglobeaz o serie de aciuni coordonate sau iniiate n vederea evitrii unei crize, prevenirii escaladrii ntr-un conflict armat i ncetrii ostilitilor, dac acestea exist. Acest set de aciuni este alctuit din: strngerea i evaluarea informaiilor, analizarea situaiei concrete ce trebuie soluionat, stabilirea obiectivelor de urmat i a opiunilor de aciune, implementarea un eia dintre opiuni precum i analiza reaciilor n urma aciunilor ntreprinse. n ceea ce privete situaiile ce pot reprezenta obiectul managementului, orice ameninare resimit de oricare stat membru poate s reprezinte o problema ce necesit un rspun s din partea celorlalte state membre i va fi luat n considerare de Alian. n cadrul procesului de management al crizelor, Aliana pune un accent deosebit pe prevenirea conflictelor prin activiti precum iniiativele diplomatice, participarea la negocieri, consultri, realizarea de inspecii sau monitorizri, desfurarea preventiv a forelor civile sau militare. Prin aceste operaiuni se
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urmrete evitarea escaladrii disputelor sau tensiunilor n conflicte armate. n cadrul procesului de management al crizelor, NATO a identificat cinci etape: 1) culegerea informaiilor, observarea indicatorilor i avertizarea unei crize poteniale sau actuale; 2) evaluarea situaiei de criz i stabilirea implicaiilor pentru securitatea NATO i implicit a membrilor si; 3) identificarea opiunilor de rspuns, recomandate pentru a sprijini procesul decizional din cadrul Consiliului Nord-Atlantic sau Comitetului pentru Planificarea Aprrii; 4) planificarea n detaliu i execuia deciziilor i directivelor Consiliului Nord-Atlantic sau ale Comitetului pentru Planificarea Aprrii; 5) revenirea la stabilitate. Dup un nceput ovitor n prima parte a anilor 1990, NATO a devenit treptat instituia nsrcinat cu responsabilitatea principal pentru conducerea operaiunilor de meninere a pcii n cazul conflictelor etnice din Europa. Abordarea NATO a conflictele etnice s-a realizat pe dou niveluri: iniierea de mecanisme cu scopul de a preveni asemenea conflicte i adaptarea misiunilor militare pentru a putea reaciona prompt atunci cnd msurile de prevenire eueaz. Parteneriatul pentru Pace (PfP), principalul program de cooperare dintre statele din centrul i estul Europei i NATO, i -a adus, de-a lungul timpului, un aport semnificativ la stabilizarea
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zonelor de conflict din spaiul Europei Centrale i de Sud-Est, prin crearea unui climat de nelegere, ncredere i cooperare ntre aliai, pe de-o parte, i rile partenere, de cealalt parte, precum i la promovarea reformei militare n aceste din urm state. Analiznd modul n care NATO a asigurat managementul conflictelor entice din Balcani, se remarc faptul c Aliana posed un numr de avantaje comparativ cu alte organizaii internaionale care i asigur o mai mare credibilitate pe scena internaional. Aceast credibilitate reiese din capacitatea, deja dovedit, a NATO de a aciona, coordona i coopera cu terii. Unul dintre factorii ce d for Alianei este acela c NATO garanteaz implicarea SUA n securitatea Europei. Influena diplomatic i fora militar a SUA au asigurat faptul ca NATO s fie luat n serios, demonstrnd aciona mai eficient dect sub egida organizaiilor internaionale. De la sfritul rzboiului rece, abilitatea NATO de a coopera cu alte organizaii internaionale a progresat n mod constant, aceasta fiind un rezultat direct al nevoii de a oferi un management eficient al conflictelor etnice n Europa. Aranjamentele Berlin Plus dintre UE i NATO, aprute datorit slab dezvoltatei laturi militare a UE, au instituionalizat i consolidat relaiile UE-NATO, limitnd rivalitatea i competiia instituional. Acest aspect este semnificativ n dezvoltarea rolului militar al UE dar i pentru a degreva NATO de o parte din responsabilitatea asigurrii managementului securitii europene. Politica uilor deschise promovat n cadrul NATO i evoluiile nregistrate de statele din regiune n urma procesului de
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aderare la UE ntresc ateptrile legate de pacificarea zonei Balcanilor. Experienele extinderilor anterioare au scos n eviden faptul c derularea simultan a celor dou procese (aderarea la UE i integrarea n NATO) a contribuit n mod semnificativ la preluarea valorilor occidentale n statele candidate, la contribuia acestor state la eforturile de instaurare i dezvoltare a unui mediu regional i internaional care s asigure securitatea regional i global.

Organizaia Mondial a Comerului

OMC i-a nceput activitatea la 1 ianuarie 1995 dar bazele sistemului su de funcionare exista de aproximativ 50 de ani, sub forma GATT General Agreement on Tarrifs and Trade. Trebuie remarcat faptul c, n cei aproape 50 de ani de funcionare GATT i-a demonstrat flexibilitatea, prin adaptarea permanent la provocrile economice, sociale i politice ale fiecrei etape din evoluia contextului global, regional i naional al actorilor implicai. Odat cu nceperea activitii OMC, economia mondial intr ntr-o nou etap de evoluie, bazat pe fluxuri comerciale libere, supuse regulilor liberei concurene, unor principii i reguli noi sau mbuntile, menite s creeze premisele pentru un grad ridicat de transparen, stabilitate i predictibilitate n ceea ce privete relaiile economice la nivel planetar. Acordurile OMC cuprind reglemetri referitoare la bunuri, servicii i drepturile de proprietate intelectual, enumernd clar principiile liberalizrii i excepiile permise i includ angajamentele
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individuale ale membrilor privind reducerea tariferlor vamale i a altor bariere comerciale i de a deschide i menine deschise pieele serviciilor. De asemenea, aceste acorduri stabilesc procedurile necesare rezolvrii disputelor i impun guvernelor ca politicile comerciale adoptate s fie transparente, notificnd OMC n privina legilor n vigoare, msurilor adoptate, prin rapoarte regulate privind politicile comerciale ale rii naintate ctre Secretariat. Aceste reguli sunt acorduri negociate de guverne. Cel mai puin dezvoltate ri primesc un grad sporit de atenie din partea OMC, toate acordurile recunoscnd faptul c acestea trebuie s beneficieze de cel mai sporit grad de flexibilitate, iar membrii mai avansai trebuie s depun eforturi pentru a cobor nivelul barierelor de import n ceea ce privete exporturile rilor mai puin dezvoltate. Prin nfiinarea OMC i activitatea desfurat de aceasta se sprijin creterea economic la nivel global. Creterea economic a unui stat nu mai poate fi privit izolat de situaia economic de la nivel regional i global n condiiile adncirii interdependenelor, iar soluiile adoptate la nivel naional pentru depirea diferitelor probleme de ordin economic, social, etc. trebuie s fie susinute i de msuri asumate la nivel global pentru a asigura acestora un grad crescut de eficien.

Romnia n actualul context de securitate

Romnia nu este i nu se va afla n viitorul apropiat n faa vreunei ameninri majore la adresa securitii sale naionale, de
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tip militar clasic. n perioada actual riscurile la adresa securitii Romniei sunt preponderent de natura nemilitar i mai ales intern, manifestndu-se n special n domeniile economic, financiar i social. n condiiile integrrii euro-atlantice i extinderii proceselor de tip integrativ, ca o consecin a globalizrii, asigurarea securitii politice, economice sau sociale, nu mai este un atribut exclusiv al statului, n atingerea acestui obiectiv implicndu-se i ali actori naionali, regionali sau internaionali. Adiional msurilor, destinate depirii actualelor provocri la adresa securitii, iniiate, susinute i implemetate la nivelul regiunii Europei de Sud-Est de ctre organizaiile internaionale din care Romnia face parte, n cadrul liucrrii au fost identificate i analizate o serie de msuri ce ar avea potenialul de a stimula relansarea economic n Romnia n condiiile actualului context de securitate. n aceste sens, un aspect de o importan vital pentru redresarea economic a Romniei este echilibrarea balanei comerciale i a balanei de cont curent cu scopul asigurrii lichiditilor necesare susinerii consumului i a investiiilor. Atenuarea i prevenirea dezechilibrelor de cont curent necesit msuri de regularizare i reglementare a circulaiei transfrontaliere de capital cu scopul echilibrrii balanei de pli. Romnia, ca ar predominant importatoare de bunuri trebuie s i dezvolte, n aceeai msur i latura productoare sau importatoare de capital, pentru a avea fondurile necesare achitrii importurilor, fr s fie nevoie s creasc gradul de ndatorare.

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Printre msurile ce pot fi adoptate pentru ieirea din acest dezechilibru major se numr: deprecierea controlat a monedei naionale, descurajarea consumului prin stimularea realizrii de economii ca urmare a creterii dobnzilor la depozite, reducerea deficitului bugetar. De asemenea, n condiiile restrngerilor determinate de criza economic, dar i a creterii exigenelor i concurenei pe pieele internaionale, au fost identificate unele metode i tehnici de management legate de promovarea ofertei naionale la export, atragerea investiiilor strine, dezvoltarea spiritului antreprenorial, dezvoltarea i promovarea unor sectoare cheie ale economiei romneti, precum i de adaptarea sistemului educaional la realitile vieii economice. Un alt factor important, n vederea asigurarii stabilitii, economice este reprezentat de asigurarea stabilitii raporturilor juridice, prin reducerea gradului de incertitudine a perspectivelor pe termen scurt, mediu i lung. n aceste context, trebuie subliniat necesitatea garantrii previzibilitii att a reglemtrilor legale, ct i a interpretrilor date cadrului legal n vigoare, astfe l nct orice persoan, n momentul n care iniiaz o anumit conduit, s poat prevedea consecinele de ordin juridic ale acesteia. Creterea economic este influenat de o serie de variabile precum demografia, mediul politic, climatul de securitate, energia, progresul tehnologic etc. i se exprim prin produsul naional brut, productivitate, comer, investiii, fluxuri financiare. Dup cum am artat n cuprinsul lucrrii, deinerea i asumarea
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deplin de ctre un stat, n cadrul relaiilor sale comerciale externe, a calitii de membru OMC sau UE pot contribui, n mod substanial, la obinerea stabilitii i chiar a creterii economice. Acest lucru este posibil, n special, n urma implementrii de ctre respectivul stat a regulilor sistemului comercial multilateral, att n planul legislativ ct i n planul organizatoric i funcional.

Lista lucrrilor publicate

Ca parte a activitii de cercetare, am elaborat, n calitate de autor i co-autor, o serie de lucrri publicate n reviste de profil, dup cum urmeaz: - The globalization of Social Issues and the Challanges of Security Policies, Dr. Anca Petrescu, Nicolae Sorinel Rotaru, Valahian Journal of Economic Studies, Volume 1 (15), Issue 4/2010, Trgovite 2010, ISSN 2067-9440, B+; - Managementul crizelor i conflictelor n Europa de S-E Factor determinant al stabilitii economice, Nicolae Sorinel Rotaru, Universitatea Valahia din Trgovite Cercetri Doctorale, Volumul II, Nr. 2, 2010, Valahia University Press, ISSN 2067-371X, B+; Se afl n curs de publicare articolul Information and Communication Technology Essential Vector for a Durable Development, Prof. dr. Ion Prgaru, Nicolae Sorinel Rotaru n Valahian Journal of Economic Studies, An International Review of
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Theories and Applied Studies in Performance Management, nr. 1/2012, ISSN 2067-9440, B+.

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CURRICULUM VITAE
Nume / Prenume

Nicolae Sorinel ROTARU

Experiena profesional
Perioada Funcia sau postul ocupat Numele i adresa angajatorului Tipul activitii sau sectorul de activitate Perioada Funcia sau postul ocupat Numele i adresa angajatorului Tipul activitii sau sectorul de activitate Perioada Funcia sau postul ocupat Numele i adresa angajatorului Tipul activitii sau sectorul de activitate septembrie 2010 - prezent Director adjunct Oficiul Registrului Naional al Informaiilor Secrete de Stat - ORNISS Management n domeniul proteciei informaiilor clasificate aprilie 2004 august 2010 ef Serviciu ORNISS Reglementare n domeniul proteciei informaiilor naionale clasificate septembrie 2003 martie 2004 Referent ORNISS Reglementare n domeniul proteciei informaiilor naionale clasificate

Educaie i formare
Perioada Calificarea / diploma obinut Domenii principale studiate / competene dobndite Numele i tipul instituiei de nvmnt / furnizorului de formare Nivelul de clasificare a formei de nvmnt / formare Perioada Calificarea / diploma obinut Domenii principale studiate / competene dobndite Numele i tipul instituiei de nvmnt / furnizorului de formare 2009 - prezent Doctorand tiine Economice - Management

Universitatea Valahia Trgovite, IOSUD coala Doctoral de tiine Econom i Umaniste Doctorat

2006-2007 Absolvent studii post-universitare Managementul informaiilor Universitatea Valahia, Trgovite

50

Nivelul de clasificare a formei de nvmnt / formare

Post-universitar

Perioada Calificarea / diploma obinut Domenii principale studiate / competene dobndite Numele i tipul instituiei de nvmnt / furnizorului de formare Nivelul de clasificare a formei de nvmnt / formare

1999-2002 Absolvent studii universitare Finane - contabilitate Universitatea Banatului din Timioara Superior

Limbi strine cunoscute

Abiliti de ascultare Abiliti de citire Avansat Mediu Interaciune Avansat Mediu

Exprim

Engleza
Avansat

Avan

Franceza

Mediu

Me

51

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION, RESEARCH, YOUTH AND SPORT VALAHIA UNIVERSITY OF TRGOVITE DOCTORAL SCHOOL OF ECONOMIC AND HUMANIST SCIENCES Department: MANAGEMENT

CRISES AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE A DETERMINANANT FACTOR FOR ECONOMIC STABILITY
PhD scientific coordinator: Prof. univ. dr. Ion PRGARU

PhD Student: Nicolae ROTARU

TRGOVITE 2012

Sorinel

52

Table of contents

PhD THESIS TABLE OF CONTENTS......................................................................... 53 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 55 Conflicts in the Balkans ........................................................................................ 58 Terrorism .............................................................................................................. 59 The energy crisis ................................................................................................... 60 World economic crisis .......................................................................................... 61 The European Unions role in crisis and conflict management ............................ 64 NATOs role in crisis and conflict management ................................................... 69 World Trade Organization .................................................................................... 73 Romania and the present security context .......................................................... 75 BIBLIOGRAFIE ........................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. CURRICULUL VITAE ............................................................................................... 78

PhD THESIS TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. METHODOLOGY, METHODES AND RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS CHAPTER 2. CRISES AND CONFLICTS IN S-E EUROPE 2.1. Theoretic approach of certain notions 2.2. Threats in the security area of S-E Europe 2.2.1. Conflicts in the Balkans 2.2.1.1. Bosnia and Herzegovina 53

2.2.1.2 Kosovo 2.2.1.3. Macedonia 2.2.1.4. Serbia and Montenegro 2.2.1.5. Consequences and risks 2.2.2. Terrorism 2.2.3. Energy crisis 2.2.4. World economic crisis 2.3. The tendency of crises and conflicts globalization CHAPTER 3. CRISES AND CONFLICTS MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES 3.1. Theoretic approach of crises and conflict management 3.2. EUs role in crises and conflict management 3.2.1. General consideration on EUs capacity of ensuring global security 3.2.3. EUs concept on crisis management 3.2.4. From the Stability Pact for S-E Europe to the Council for Regional Cooperation 3.3. NATOs role in crises and conflicts management 3.3.1. General considerations regarding NATOs ability to ensure global security 3.3.2. NATOs concept for crises management 3.3.3 Crises and conflicts management in S-E Europe 3.4. EU-NATO relation 3.5. World Trading Organization CHAPTER 4. ROMANIA IN THE PRESENT SECURITY CONTEXT 54

CHAPTER 5. PERSONAL CONTRIBUTIONS CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS BIBLIOGRAPHY ELECTRONIC BIBLIOGRAPHY LIST OF ABREVIESIONS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES ANNEX 1 Failed, foiled and carried attacks ANNEX 2 Financial assistance offered to the EU Balkan states in the preaccession process ANNEX 3 Main macroindicators for candidate states or in the process of EU pre-accession ANNEX 4 Members of the Regional Cooperation Council ANNEX 5 GATT negotiations ANNEX 6 WTO reglementations ANNEX 7 Main previsions for Romania

Introduction
The purpose of the thesis is to continue and deepen the scientific intercessions regarding themes that were earlier approached by the author, as well as widening the analysis to other aspects that have become important in the meantime, such as the energy and the economic crisis, matters that fill the agenda
55

of international organizations and national governments from South East Europe and other regions. The thesis proposes a uniform approach of the major security threats in Europe and the impact they had, the modality of handling their management, with the purpose of looming the perspectives of these phenomena and delineate the actions that might be adopted in order to ensure the security and stability of South-East Europe. The thesis aim is to effectuate a general theory regarding the establishing of crisis and conflicts situation management on an international level, by certain international organizations the ones that offer the highest degree of relevance regarding the approached matters and in the given context: EU, NATO and WTO as well as an impact analysis that refers to the results that emerge from the actions or inactions of these entities. The history of the world is a long line of crises, conflicts and wars. As a general rule, by establishing international and regional organizations, society has attempted the prevention of conflicts and solving disputes with the aid of and institutionalized system meant to ensure a climate of security and stability. As I am about to elaborate in the following chapters, globalization has, along with advantages, it downsides and risks that call for the adoption of efficient mechanisms and procedures in order to prevent and manage crises and conflicts. The risks of a traditional military confrontation on the European continent have dwindled considerably. Still, one can discover aspects of instability, crises on a sub-regional level, certain territorial scission tendencies and marginalization or
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isolation of certain states. Countries from Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe are confronted with economic, social and political difficulties linked to the present economic crisis, the transition process towards a society that is based on democratic principles and market economy, difficulties that can pose a threat to the security of states. The frailty of the security environment in South-Eastern Europe is determined, mostly, by internal factors belonging to the weak governance of the newly formed states on the southern EU border, characterized by: the incapacity of the state institutions to ensure the rule of law, the economic instability and the growing underground economy, corruption, uneven distribution of

resources within the state, disregard of human rights and minorities, maintaining and sometimes fueling the ethnic and confessional disruptions. Generally speaking, the degradation of the economic situation precedes any situation in which security becomes a problem of public speaking, being manifested as a direct consequence of the respective crisis situation, as well as a result of the impact that the crisis has on a social level. Areas that are politically and military unstable have become heavens for organized crime groups, mercenaries or Islamic fundamentalists. Having these areas as their basis, the groups or persons are able to launch criminal or terrorist operations that would entail potential regional risks. The present thesis tackles four large threats that SouthEastern Europe faces: ethnic conflicts in the Balkan area, terrorism, energy crisis and economic crisis.
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Conflicts in the Balkans

The troubled historical past has created a specific situation, gathering in a relatively small area, geographically speaking, individuals with different cultural perspectives and uneven economic development. The downfall of the totalitarian regimes throughout Central and Eastern Europe has led to the surging of cultural and religious differences that, until then, had survived in a frozen state. Outright wars have aggravated the economic situation, previously stable during the existence of the Yugoslavian state, plunging the involved countries, with the exception of Slovenia and Croatia, in an area of low macroeconomic indicators, occupying the last places in a European chart. In spite of the fact that there have been several successful crises solving in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kosovo, only military interventions, as a last resort, have ended the armed fighting. The main internal factors that have the capacity to escalate the ethnic conflicts in this region are: economic depression, poverty, undemocratic governance, discrimination, not granting minority rights, refugee flows, ethnic dissensions, cultural and religious intolerance, the spreading of weapons of mass destructions and small firearms. The period of war, low incomes and the degradation of public institutions have favored crime development in the West Balkans with organized crime networks becoming stronger and more violent, making their presence felt on an international level. One other problem is represented by illegal migration, the local
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crime gangs are using this region as a transit route in order to smuggle in immigrants from Asia and Middle East into the European Union.

Terrorism
Terrorism is numbered among the most dangerous phenomena, being encouraged by fundamentalists that base themselves on frustration and extreme poverty. In this context, poverty and failed states do not represent a direct threat upon the Western part of the world, but may pose a danger by encouraging the existence of terrorist cells and the area to develop. Terrorism may find favorable grounds to flourish in areas where regional conflicts occur and within states that have yet to develop their capacity and instruments for imposing law and order. Poverty may significantly contribute to the radicalization of this phenomenon as a consequence of the fact that many people lose hope for a better future and their trust in the state institutions for identifying solutions for overcoming the crisis, terrorist organizations exploiting these complaints and offering, in their opinion, a religious justification to their actions. Within the EU borders, significant terrorist threats are generated not only by consecrated organizations but also by a growing number of actors that act on their own (terrorist without affiliation that act according to their own plans) and small groups. This development is facilitated by the Internet, involving only minimal costs and compensating for the lack of adequate funding for direct operations.
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The energy crisis

Along with the depletion of energy resources, combined with a consumption growth worldwide, Europe encounters a whole array of aspects pertaining to the energy crisis. On a world scale, Russia owns the largest natural gas reserves, ranks second in coal production and eight in oil reserves, being at the same time the biggest natural gas exporter and second in oil exports. Looking from the resources transportation perspective, Gazprom own the entire transport infrastructure in the Russian Federation, also being the only organization licensed to sell natural gas abroad. Starting in the 1990` negotiations with Russia regarding energy have been affected by threats to cut off strategic energy supplies. Although, these harsh measures were not especially meant for the EU member states that were purchasing natural gas and oil, the European disgruntlements target Russias use of the energy trump as an instrument of external pressure and lack of transparence. Following the debut of the Iraqi conflict, the Middle East became an unstable supplier for the European states, being unable to fill the necessary amounts requested. Given the situation, the European states were forced to turn to the Russian Federation, thus heightening their energetic dependence. Another facet of the energy problem in Europe regards the fact that there are states that are entirely or almost entirely dependent on importing the Russian gas supplies. In this category fall EU member states such as Slovakia, Lithuania, Finland, Bulgaria,

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Latvia, Estonia and also non EU members Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia.

World economic crisis

When talking about the economic crisis at a global level, one must not lose sight of the fact that it has spread with unprecedented haste, starting from the US banking sector to all the aspects of the global economy. According to data published by the European Commission, the current crisis has affected, in a negative manner, all EU member states, with the exception of Poland and Slovakia. None of the members were able to overcome the downfall earlier than a year. By august 2009, many European countries had begun their comeback trip to the top of the lists but, unfortunately, some member state such as Greece, Ireland or Romania were still in full recession even in 2011, after three consecutive years of decline in production and incomes. None of the member states were immune to the blows given by the crisis, nonetheless some proved to be resilient and are expected to keep to the high standards of prosperity and to continue on being the main EU funders Germany, UK, Poland and France while Italy and Spain are expected to have negative contributions for 2012. As it was expected, the labor market was severely affected by the economic crisis but it is on its way towards recovery. One of the red flags that are presently on the European agenda for fixing is unemployment. According to official data there are important
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differences between member states, 4,1 % in Austria and 23,2 % in Spain, with Romania leveled at 7,5 % at the end of 2011. The crisis has revealed the close bonds and the issues between the national economies of EU members, especially in the Eurozone which shares a high degree of interdependence. Reforms, or the lack of, adopted in a country, affect all aspects of the economy generating numerous public spending restrictions that affect the basic infrastructure of transports or energy, not only for developing their own economies but also for participating on the European market. Regarding the impact of the economic crisis over emerging states, states with underdeveloped economies, states affected by military or civil strife, one must realize that these countries as well take part in the grand globalizing process and are affected, along with the more advanced countries, by the present economic crisis. On the matter of advantages generated by globalization, these countries have had small benefits due to the fact that they have been avoided by investors because of the political, social and economic unstable situation. Given these facts, the above mentioned countries are largely affected by the economic crisis and powering up their economies depends on the national economic recovery plans along with foreign investments. Taking a panoramic look on the banking, financial and economic crises and considering their impact on the economic environment, these crises doubtlessly lead to a negative altering of social conditions for the population by: reducing salaries, unemployment, reducing the standard of living, health problems, a raise in the number of suicides, street protests etc. Along with the
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plethora of negative effects, the economic crisis, depending on the taken approach, may contribute for the medium and long term, in ensuring the economic stability by placing the economy on new bases that are real and functional. Among these positive effects, one might find that the general population and the economic agents must adopt a balanced behavior regarding the

consumption of resources, as well as a general reduction of prices, especially the prices of the real estate assets that were not justified from an economic point of view but only from a

speculative one. The present crisis has offered an important boost for adopting and applying certain restructuring measures that had been postponed or avoided until that moment, in various areas of activity that had previously proved their lack of functionality. On a national level of state institutions, crises situations management is represented by a set of measures and actions established by competent authorities in key areas (government, ministries, parliament, other authorities and public and central institutions) in order to ensure national security and the reinstatement of a certain social, economic, military level of normality On an international level, the entities involved in crises management are, generally speaking, the international organizations and institutions but also national governments, governments that act on their own behalf or as members of international or regional organizations. Crises and conflicts do not work themselves out, reducing their intensity or preventing them can only be achieved by common action undertaken by certain institutions that are certified in this area of expertise in order to solve crises and conflicts.
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Previous experiences concerning crises or conflicts have forced the international community to comprehend the necessity of working together and coordinating efforts in order to minimize conflicting situations, channeling their efforts to identify strategies, methods and institutions that are able to insure the diminishment and to deter theses phenomena. Likewise, the sole common action of stopping the crises and conflicts may prove not to suffice in order to ensure a stable environment that favors a durable development. Concepts that regard the prevention and management of crises and conflicts have developed overtime; in order to avoid high costs, both material and human resources, for solving ongoing crises and conflicts. Given these factors national governments along with regional and international organizations are aiming for developing, optimizing and implementing strategies that will offer the necessary edge to avoid or at least mitigate the costs generated by crises and conflicts.

The European Unions role in crisis and conflict management

The EU is undergoing a profound process of internal reform in parallel with the procedures necessary for receiving new members. Even if in the beginning, the EUs purpose was an economic one, it has developed in all areas, including security due to the fact that the lives of European citizens are fully affected by
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the decisions taken within its institutions. On the EU level there is a demarcation between crises management and solving conflicts. From the EUs point of view, crises management represents the set of actions taken in order to prevent a vertical escalation of the crisis, through intensified violence and on a horizontal level, through the expansion of area of violence. Solving conflicts involves a series of actions, taken in the short term in order for the conflict to cease. The reasons that lead to a conflict or a crisis vary and are very complex. Analyzing these original causes may lead to

identifying the early signs of such phenomena. For this purpose, the EU has created an early warning system to help identify regions that spawn tensions. By identifying these original causes that generate tensions it is intended to solve the respective reasons in order to avoid the heightening of the crisis or the conflict. This important instrument, at EUs disposal, is

represented by the network of European Commission delegations and by the monitoring centers belonging to the EU that are placed all over the globe. Four phases may be identified within the European model of crises and conflicts management, pertaining to member states security and integrity: 1. Edifying the pre-conflict or post-conflict peace, in order to prevent crises and conflicts through structural measures on the long term.

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2. Imposing peace by means of coercive means, in situations such as aggression of national borders, maintaining peace or an intervention to protect the human rights. 3. Maintaining peace by means of preventive diplomacy or preventive force deployment; 4. Restoring peace by means of non-coercive means, most of the time by diplomatic means. In EUs acceptation, preventing conflicts represents the essence of its external actions and to achieve this objective the Union is using development assistance as well as long term reconstruction and means to manage military and civil crises for a short term in order to ensure conflict management for the preconflict and post-conflict situations. Depending on the type of problems that need to be managed, the EU may use development assistance cu fight off poverty and diseases or use its commercial agreements to ensure better access to its markets, with the aim of encouraging the states that have economic difficulties and supporting the developing ones. Also, the EU may offer technical and financial aid in areas like governance, security system, justice, rural development, transportation, energy, health etc. The Union may cooperate with other international organizations and national authorities to combat drugs, weapons or persons trafficking. One aspect that is worth mentioning is that the EU is very active regarding preventive diplomacy and mediating. In the event that is faced with an open conflict or with post-conflict situations, the EU is involved in the management of military and civil crises as well as post-conflict
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stabilization and assistance for long term developing and reconstruction. In order to achieve these objectives, the Union calls on its political influence to end the conflict, enforces the cease fire terms, brings in the instauration and maintenance of peace and offers human and emergency aid for the long term supervision for the following period as well as the long term. Along with the already mentioned aid, the Union brings in experts to supervise the elections while, at the same time, runs projects meant to educate voters, it supports the consolidation of the judicial system in the way of developing the rule of law, promoting human rights and contributing to improving police services. Regarding the EUs activity in the Western Balkans, in areas plagued by ethnic conflicts, the main objective is to enlarge the peace, stability and security area. In order to reach this target, in the last fifteen years, the EU has brought in important financial aid through specific programs but also military aid. The European Union has covered a learning process in the Balkans. Its incapacity for an efficient action to impose peace in the conflict regions, has brought up the unsatisfying side of the consensual nature of the Union. The failure of the Allied Force operation to achieve a quick surrender of the Serbs has contributed to the exacerbation of the EUs accountability for the crimes that took place in this region and regarding the path needed to take in order to ensure its credibility as an international actor. The Kosovo conflict has offered an opportunity for the EU regarding the bringing into existence of an operative European Common Defense and Security Policy (CDSP). On an institutional
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level, the Kosovo crisis has opened the debate regarding the enforcement of CDSP through the Treaty of Nice, but on a regional policy level, the EU has been forced to assume the role of paymaster for the reconstruction process of South Eastern Europe by means of the Stability Pact. Following the Dayton Agreement, the EU has adopted a consistent and efficient trend in approaching the political stabilization and economic recovery in this region. The trump held by the EU in the Balkans is the conditioning policy, a very efficient tool for the countries aiming to join, where the political elite and the population as well, are willing to undertake important tasks in order to reach this objective that is considered by many a universal panacea for all the problems they might have. Most of the positive processes in S-E Europe are due to the European integration perspective of the states that have had or are now experiencing conflicts, this aspect lending a stabilizing effect on the regional evolution. From the perspective of the EU terrorism prevention efforts, the idea of consolidating the Trans-Atlantic relation sticks out, especially after the 9.11 events. By doing this, the EU member states have contributed to the eradication of this phenomenon by using a number of tools: eradicating terrorist cells in Europe, employing prevention actions for terrorist acts, financial

supervision and cutting of funding to the respective groups, consolidating the information sharing system between secret services and police and intelligence cooperation.

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On an EU level there are strategies that have been adopted, coordinated and supervised in order to ensure the management of prevention, handling and solving the arisen phenomena in various areas of activity such as economic, banking, and energy, sectors that are susceptible to be affected by crises or conflicts. Regarding the EU policy of responding to the present economic and financial crisis, the main action paths are: ensuring a global answer to the financial crisis, coordinated actions on the level of the European community, measures to limit the expansion of the crisis, a more stern supervision of the banking sector, supporting enterprises, ensuring the budgetary stability on a national level, accelerating reforms and investments, human resources financing, social protection, creating a research sector able to support the European economy. From the energy perspective, along with the taken measures for diversifying the energy routes, suppliers and renewable energy resources, in economic terms, according to data published by the European Commission, in 2010, the EU has been the main commercial partner of the Russian Federation for imports as well as exports. This picture clearly indicates dependence on Russia on the European market.

NATOs role in crisis and conflict management

At the time of its creation in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) perceived the Soviet Union as the main
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opponent of freedom and independence in Western Europe. Now, 20 years after the disbandment of the USSR, the Alliance continues to function but after having went through important transformations, changes of concepts and even a development of a strategic relation with the Russian Federation. NATO`s main and permanent purpose is to defend the freedom and security of all its members, by political and military means, as well as insuring peace and stability, while upholding the principles of the United Nations Chart. The functioning of the organization is based on common agreement and mutual cooperation among sovereign states with the purpose of insuring security for all the partners, under the umbrella of collective defense. This concept is crystalized as a fulfillment of national efforts confronted with the challenges of addressing security issues. Member states have come to realize that a regional crisis that emerged outside their borders may pose a possible threat to its national interests and their interests and for this reason, NATO gets involved every time it assesses that its actions are possible and necessary to avoid crises, to manage and diminish crises and undergoing conflicts, stabilizing post-conflict situations in order to support the reconstruction of the affected areas. From NATOs perspective, crises management includes a series of coordinated actions ment to avoid a crisis, to prevent the heightening of an armed conflict and ceasing hostilities, if any. This set of actions consists of: gathering and evaluating
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information, analizing the neccesitaty to be followed and action options, implementing one of the options as well as analizing reactions following the the adopted actions. Regarding situations that may represent the object of management, any threat felt by any member state may represent a problem that must be answered by the other member states and will be taken into consideration by the Alliance. Within the crisis management prccess, the Alliance emphasizes conflict prevention through activities that involve diplomatic initiatives, taking part in negociations, inspections or supervizing, preventive deployment of civil or military forces. The purpose of these operations is to deter the escalations of disputes or tensions of armed conflicts. For the management proccess of crisis management, NATO has identified five stages: 1. intelligence gathering, studying indicators and sending warnings about a potential or pending crisis; 2. assesing the crisis situation and ascertaining the implications for NATOs security and its members; 3. Identifying the answering options, recommended to support the decisional process within the North-Atlantic Council or the Defense Planning Committee; 4. Detailed planning and executing decisions and directives of the North-Atlantic Council or the Defense Planning Committee;
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5. Returning to stability. After a reluctant start in the beginning of the 1990, NATO has gradually become the institution tasked with the main responsibilities for leading peace keeping operations for ethnic conflicts in Europe. NATOs approach to social conflicts was split in two: initiating mechanisms in order to prevent these types of conflicts and adapting military missions in order to offer a quick reaction when deterrence measures fail. The Partnership for Peace (PfP), the main cooperation program for Central and Eastern Europe and NATO, has significantly benefited the stabilization of conflicts zones from Central and South-Eastern Europe by creating an environment of understanding, trust and cooperation among allies, on one side, and partner countries, on the other side, as well as promoting military reform. Analyzing the way that NATO has handled the ethnic conflicts management in the Balkans, one remarkable aspect is that the Alliance owns a large number of advantages, compared to other international organizations, that ensures better credibility on the international scene. This credibility arises from NATOs already proven capacity to act, coordinate and cooperate with third parties. One factor that lends strength to the Alliance is that NATO guarantees US involvement in Europes security. The US diplomatic influence and the military strength have ensured the fact that NATO is being treated as a serious international actor, demonstrating that it can act in a more efficient manner than under
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the aegis of international organizations. Since the end of the Cold War, NATOs ability to cooperate with other international organizations has constantly developed, this being a direct result of the need to offer a more efficient management of ethnic conflicts in Europe. The Berlin Plus arrangements between NATO and EU, developed due to the underdeveloped military side of EU, have institutionalized and consolidated NATO-EU relations, limiting rivalry and institutional competition. This is a significant aspect regarding EUs military development but also to unburden NATO of the responsibility of ensuring the European security management. The open doors policy promoted within NATO and the developments of the states after the EU accession process strengthen the expectations regarding the pacification of the Balkans. Previous accession experience have emphasized the fact that the simultaneous ongoing of both processes (the EU and NATO accession) have significantly contributed to assuming the Western states values by the candidate countries and the contribution made by these states to develop a regional and international environment that will ensure regional and global security.

World Trade Organization

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has begun to function on January 1st 1995 but the premises of the system were in place and working for approximately 50 years, under the aspect of GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. One aspect
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must be noticed, GATT in the 50 years period had proven its flexibility, by permanently adapting to economic, social and politic challenges of each stage in the global, regional and national context for the involved parties. At the same time with the beginning of the WTO activity, the worlds economy entered a new stage of evolution, based on new or improved commercial rules, meant to create the premises for a high degree of transparency, stability and predictability regarding worldwide economic relations. The WTO agreements include regulations that address goods, services and rights of intellectual property, clearly specifying the principles of liberalization and the allowed exceptions and include individual arrangements and other commercial issues; opening and maintaining the services markets. Also, these agreements establish the necessary procedures for solving disputes and impose to governments that the adopted commercial policies must be transparent, notifying WTO in regard to laws in force, adopted measures, by means of the countrys regular reports forwarded to the Secretariat. These rules represent agreements negotiated by governments. The least developed countries, receive a large amount of attention from the WTO, all the agreements admitting the fact that lowering the import barriers regarding exports of less developed countries, with the more advanced members that need to double their efforts to lower the barrier level for imports. The economic growth was based on starting WTO and its employed activity on a world scale. The economic growth of one state can no longer be regarded as being outside the economic
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situation

of

the

world,

given

the

deepening

of

the

interdependences, and the worldwide adopted solutions, must be supported by assumed measures in order to ensure a high efficiency level.

Romania and the present security context

Romania is not and nor will be in the near future faced with any type of major classical national security threat Presently, Romanias security risks are mainly non-military and mostly internal, being manifested especially in the economic, financial and social areas. Given the Euro-Atlantic integration and the growth of integrating processes, as a consequence of globalization, ensuring security political, economic or social is no longer an exclusive attribute of the state but also an objective for national, regional or international actors. In addition to these measures, meant to overcome the present security challenges, initiated, supported and implemented throughout South-Eastern Europe by international organizations to which Romania is part. The thesis has identified a series of measures that have the potential to stimulate the economic relaunching given the present conditions of the security context. In this regard, one important issue for Romanias economic recovery is the equilibration of the trade balance with the current account balance with the purpose of ensuring the necessary monetary liquidities for supporting consumption and investments. Mitigating
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and preventing the lack of equilibrium of current account necessitate measures of regulating and reglementation of cross border flow of capital. Romania, as a predominantly goods importing country, must develop, at the same time, its productive side or capital importing, in order to have the necessary funds of paying for the imported goods and services without the need to further the debt amount. Among the number of measures that can be taken to overcome this lack of equilibrium there are: a controlled depreciation of the national currency, discouraging consumption by stimulating the creation of savings as a result of an increase in bank deposit interests, reducing the budgetary deficit. Also, given the conditions generated by the economic crisis but also a raise in the level of exigency and international markets competition, several methods and management techniques have been identified in order to promote the national proposal for export, attracting foreign investments, developing entrepreneurship,

developing and promoting key economic sectors of Romanian economy, as well as adapting the educational system to the realities of economic life. One other important aspect in ensuring economic stability is represented by regular juridical reports, reducing the amount of uncertainty for short, medium and long term perspectives. In this context, the need to guarantee the predictability of legal regulations as well as the interpretation of the present legal framework, so that any person, the moment he or she initiates a
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certain demeanor, may foresee the legal consequences of that action. Economic growth is influenced by a series of variables such as: demographics, political environment, security climate, energy, technologic progress etc, and its expresion can be found in the national gross product, productivity, commerce, investments, financial flows. As shown in the thesis, being a member of WTO or EU, may have a decisive contribution on gaining stability and even economic growth. This is possible, mostly, due to the

implementation by the respective country of the multilateral commercial system, in the legislative area as well as the organizing and functioning area.

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CURRICULUL VITAE
Surname / First name

ROTARU Ncolae Sorinel

01.09.2010 - present Deputy Director National Registry Office for Classified Information - ORNISS National Distribution Agency 01.08.2006 30.08.2010 Councilor - Chief of Service National Registry Office for Classified Information - ORNISS Reglementation Service, field of classified information 01.09.2003 30.04.2004 Referrer ORNISS Regulatory, field of classified information

Work experience
Dates Position held Name of Employer Type of activity Dates Position held Name of Employer Type of activity Dates Position held Name of Employer Type of activity

Education and training

Dates Title of qualification awarded Principal subjects covered Name and type of organization providing education and training Level of national classification 2009 present PhD Student Economic Science / Management Valahia University, Targoviste PhD Studies

Dates Title of qualification awarded Principal subjects covered Name and type of organization providing education and training Level of national classification

2006-2007 Graduate Information management Valahia University, Trgovite Post-university

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Dates Title of qualification awarded Principal subjects covered Name and type of organization providing education and training Level of national classification

1999 - 2002 Licensed in economics Finances - accounting University of Banat, Timioara university

Foreign languages Self-assessment

Nivel european

Understanding
Listening Advanced Fair Fair Reading Advanced Fair Fair Fluent Fair Fair

Speaking
Spoken interaction Fluent Fair Fair

Spoken produc

English French Italian

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