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Citii anexa la Capitolul 13 din cartea lui Krugman i Obstfeld, intitulat
Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Parity.
Cerine:
a) Deducei paritatea acoperit a ratelor de dobnd (en. Covered Interest Parity,
CIP), folosind exemplul prezentat.
b) Ce ipoteze stau la baza condiiei CIP?
c) Care este diferena ntre relaia CIP i relaia UIP2 (en. Uncovered Interest
Parity)?
Krugman, P. & M. Obstfeld (2006): International Economics: Theory and Policy, 7th Edition,
Pearson Addison Wesley.
2
UIP se refer la paritatea neacoperit a ratelor de dobnd.
currency crisis of the sort usually associated with developing countries. Whether these consequences actually
come about, remains to be seen.
The carry trade is one example of how sophisticated investors use global financial markets to seek
profits. Although the strategy involves risk, it has rewarded its users significantly over the past several
years. But if the success of this strategy is coming to an end, it may have an impact on the earnings of
financial institutions that have made substantial use of the carry trade. These trades allowed some traders to
rake in big profits, but they also played a part in the credit crisis that struck world economic systems in 2008.
It's not surprising that, with all the panic, the smarties have been pulling out of these carry-trade deals. As
they do, of course, the higher demand for the yen causes it to appreciate, thus wiping out the interest-rate
gains and making it more urgent for others to get out. Fingers are being burnt as we speak.
Setting Up The Carry Trade
To become a successful carry trader, understanding the role that interest rates play in the FX market
is a crucial task. A country offering high interest rates will attract more capital as investors seek to capitalize
higher returns. As interest rates rise, investment will follow, which can in turn increase the value of the
currency. Carry trader's main focus becomes the expectation on the direction of a country's interest rate, to
ensure their high rate of return.
Generally, traders seek to buy currencies with high interest rates, and seek to short currencies who
offer low interest rates.
The carry trade works best under certain market conditions, and the selection of the currency pair can
make the difference between a losing and a profitable trade. When selecting the currency pair, traders want
to observe two things. On the one hand, the trader wants to make sure he is buying the currency that has the
higher interest rate and is selling the currency that has a lower interest rate in comparison. On the other
hand, the trader also wants to view the health of the economy for the currency pair to ensure the market will
move to his/her favor. Essentially, the trader will be buying a currency with a stronger economy and selling
the currency with a weaker economy. Some currency pairs that are usually selected to apply the carry trade
strategy are: GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, and USD/JPY. In the 2000s, the term
"carry trade" became synonymous with the "yen carry trade".
Carry Trade Strategy Example
The carry trade is a popular trading strategy used in the FX market. It guarantees traders at least some
return on their medium and longer term positions.
In the Carry Trade, speculators buy high interest currencies and sell currencies with low interest rates. These
positions ensure that each trading day rollover-interest will be posted to the trader's account. Thus, the Carry
Trade has the potential to significantly enhance a trader's return.