1.Resursele energetice mondiale i geopolitica.

A scruta viitorul nseamn a cuta rspuns la nite ntrebri actuale nc de pe acum.Extinderea la scar global a revoluiei industriale n a doua jumtate a secolului XIX a impus i acutizarea cursei narmarilor,declaat din necesitatea asigurrii resurselor energetice care s susin noul tip de industrie.Astfel att primul ct i cu att mai mult cel de al doilea rzboi mondial s-au distins prin cursa pentru asigurarea resurselor energetice,de aici rezultnd i importante rsturnri geopolitice . Pe msur ce rzboiul rece devenea o eviden , s-a impus n contextul controlrii sub pretext ideologice ,necesitatea ca Marile Puteri ale momentului s-i asigure nu doar controlul asupra unor zone n care se afl state deintore de resurse petroliere importante darr mai ales rutele de transport necesare trasportului acestuia.Tot acum se nregistreaz mai multe ocuri petroliere generate n principal de crizele politice ale Orientului Mijlociu. Impunerea SUA ca singura hiperputere la finalul Rzboiului Rece nu i-a adus i automat ,sigurana n domeniul controlrii resurselor energetice, cel de al doilea Rzboi din Golf al crui motiv primordial l-a constituit deinerea de ctre SUA a resurselor petroliere irakiene , evidentiind din plin acest lucru. Rusia deintoare a unui important potenial energetic i-a permis s-i relanseze politica extern, impunndu-i punctul de vedere cu prilejul unor reuniuni internationale de amploare cum a fost de pild recentul ncheiat Summit NATO de la Bucureti. Referindu-ne la epoca contemporan,vom analiza att situaia actul a resurselor energetice n lume la nivelul marilor exportatori, al marilor consumatori ct i principalele evoluii preconizate a se derula n viitorul nu prea indeprtat.Nu va fi trecut cu vederea nici rolul Romniei n tot acest proces. Importana petrolului ca principala resurs energetic nu este dat doar de utilizarea sa pe scar larg ci i de faptul c este cel mai comercializat produs la nivel mondial cptnd i o importan strategic1.Fr doar i poate c un asemenea statut influenez ntr-o masur semnificati i deciziile liderilor lumii,politicul trebuind s

Enciclopedie de istorie Universal,.De Agostini,Editura All Educaional,Bucureti,2003,p.1015.

aib o grij deosebit vis-a vis de influena benefic sau malefic a efectelor economice.2 Crize economico-energetice au mai existat i vor mai exista, contracararea acestor impunnd ntr-un fel agenda economic i politic a lumii 3 Situaia acesta se repercuteaz nu doar asupra preului petrolului dar i asupra preului celorlalte produse economice ,lovind n plin cele mai srace ri ale lumii,motiv pentru care liderii a 7 state africane au propus G8 la reuniunea din iulie 2008 din Japonia s dubleze ajutorul acordat anual Africii n raport cu nivelul din 2004, de 25 de miliarde $.4 Creterea dramatic a preului petrolului din ultimii ani, n special dup 2003 a avut importante influene n plan geopolitic. Rusia a ieit din marasmul economic i i-a relansat propria politic extern utiliznd veniturile suplimentare obinute din petrol i gaze. China crete economic i ptrunde n Africa n for. Proiectele de punere n exploatare a zcmintelor de hidrocarburi din Marea Chinei de S vor adnci, poate , disputele cu Taiwanul sau Japonia5, legtura dintre geopolitica regiunii i activitile economice fiind indisolubil, mai ales pentru nite state care nu depind de resurse energetice proprii. Relaia dintre iportatori i exporatatori se circumscrie raporturilor dintre diferitele arii geopolitice i economice,n acast ecuaie intrnd nu doar statele lumii ci i marile companii internaionale sau organizatii ce reunesc aceste state. Totui vorbind despre state , unele dintre acesta i articuleaz politica extern pe relatia cu utilizatorii. Dominaia de necontestat din anii 20-60 a marilor companii internationale( cele ,,apte surori ) :Texaco, Gulf, Standard Oil of New Jersey, Soconi Mobil Oil, Standard Oil Co. of California-companii americane; British Petroleum-Marea Britanie i Royal Dutch Shell- companie anglo-olandez-este ntrerupt de constituirea O.P.E.C. n 1960. Ca o consecin , statele arabe au nceput s impun rilor occidentale care concesionaser extracia iteiului creteri considerabile de preuri i limitri precise6.

2 3

Acad.Mircea Malia, Kissinger n Cadran Politic,An VI,Nr.54,martie 2008, p.67. Vlatko Mileta,Les exportateurs de petrole n Revue de politique,Belgrade,No.748,1,VI,1981 apud Eugen Preda,Miza petrolului n vltoarea rzboiului,Ed.Militar,Bucureti ,1983. 4 Elena Stnescu,Liderii lumii vorbesc despre petrol i hran, n Adevrul,Mari ,8 iulie 2008,p.48. 5 Drago Tbran, Petrolul :semnele crizei? ,p.29 n Cadran Politic,Anul VI, nr.57-58, iunie-iulie 2008. 6 Enciclopedie de istorie Universalp.1015.

Energiile marine nu prezint prea mare interes, uzinele mareomotrice din anii 60 din Frana i Rusia fiind nc n faz experimental.Energiile ,,fosile- acele resurse ce nu se mai renoiesc : huila i hidrocarburile sunt intens cutate deci epuizabile, cu toate c aceast cretere a valorii lor face previzibil prospectarea acestora nu doar la nivelul platformei continentale ci i n profunzime dar tot spre platforma continental7, toate aceste necesitnd cheltuieli substantiale, exploatarea lor fiind uneori nerentabil. Pentru Europa occidental ,a perioadei Rzboiului Rece, organizat economic n C.E.C.O. (Comunitatea European a Crbunelui i Oelului) ,crbunele devenea mai puin important n competii mondial pentru energie dect petrolul,gazele naturale i energia atomic.8 Ca urmare a crizelor energetice din anii 70 i mai ales de la ncputul anilor 80 (1973,1978-1981),incluznd rzboiul de Yom Kippur i revoluia iranian,preul barilului de petrol va crete de la 13$ pn la 35$,determinnd o reorientare spre sursle alternative de energie :crbune,centrale energetice nucleare i gaze naturale. Totusi un lucru era clar,petrolul devenea un instrument de presiune politic, eventualele lui creteri de pre producnd dezechilibre important n balana de pli a rilor importatoare,majoritata state susintoare ale Israelului. 9 Msurile guvernamentale adoptate atunci au vizat fie creterea cheltuielilor de achiziie a petrolului ,fie reducerea importurilor petroliere i a activitilor industriale dependente. Pe fondul regresului economic nregistrat de CEE , regres manifestat prin conflicte vamale, instabilitate monetar i creterea ratei omajului, Frana refuz s accepte o ntelegere nchiat ntre partenrii europeni i Statele Unite pentru mprirea petrolului n cazul unei crize cum a fost cea din 1973 cnd sporind preul petrolului l facuse greu de obtinut.10 Statele Unite au nvtat o lecie demn de inut minte n viitor ; este mai bine cnd deinnd monopolul exploatrri resurselor petroliere in ct mai multe locuri , vei fixa tu pretul , iar n eventuallitatea mpuinrii resurselor controlate de tine ei mai dispune totui de un capital financiar ce va fi inestit n surse alternative de energie. Agenia International de Energie apreciaz c numai cu unele investitii substaniale n
7 8

Resursele oceanului mondial ameninate n Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.18-19. Peter Calvocoressi, Europa de la Bismark la Gorbaciov,Ed.Polirom,Iasi ,2003, p.178. 9 Enciclopedie de istorie Universal, p.1015. 10 Peter Calvocoressi,op.cit.

noile capacitai resursele totale de energie vor suficiente pentru a acoperii cererea global.11 Totui n cursul anilor 80 Europa avea s rsufle uurat datorit scderii preului la produsele petroliere provenite din Marea Nordului,unde s-au hotrt s investeasc mai muli oameni de afaceri britanici, dei acest reducere a impozitelor asupra produselor petroliere nu aducea beneficii pe termen lung.12 Astfel,neaderarea Norvegiei la C.E.E. , s-a petrecut datorit convingerii c resursle petroliere sunt nerelevante n ansamblu, o reprofilare pe scar larg a economiei naionale nspre acest sector ar distruge, n opinia norvegienilor economia micului pescar13 . Orientul Mijlociu zona de importan geostrategica deosebit pentru orice mare putere, dublata valoric i de importantele sale resurse petrolifere, a fost privit,imediat dup primul rzboi mondial de ctre europeni n primul rnd drept centru de profit. Acestia erau prezeni n regiune nca dinaintea primei conflagraii ,ins francezii i englezii au venit n calitate de puteri coloniale n fostle teritorii otomane :Siria, Irak, Palestina i Transiordania,n calitate de teritorii sub mandat. Sigur britanicii si-au luat cea mai mare parte din aceste teritorii, bogate n resuse energetice. Pentru Churchil,pe atunci lord amiral aceast regiune cuprindea o arie mai vast ,el fiind membru in guvernul ce iniiase prima campanie britanic ce s-a ocupat de exploatarea petrolului iranian-un pas la fel de important ca i cea prin care n perioda n care s-au inlocuit vapoarele cu aburi cu cele cu combustibil petrolier , el nscriindu-se n lista primilor iniiai n politica petrolului.14 O dat cu sfritul celui de al doilea rzboi mondial, britanicii la rndul lor vor pierde preponderena economic n regiune dup ce veniser pe urmele germanilor prezeni nc de la sfritul secolului XIX ntr-o regiune aflat n centrul preocuprilor pangermanismului ncadrnd un spaiu geopolitic vast, petru expansiunea economic german-Axa Berlin-Bagdad.15 Dei Statele Unite invadaser spaiile economice rezerate de britanici, precum i cmpurile petroliere iraniene, CEE a cutat n anii 60 s11

Lumea n 2020.O schi a viitorului global prezentat de consiliul Naional de Informatii a SUA, Ed.Cartier,bucuresti,p.79. 12 Peter Calvocoressi op. cit., pp,169-171. 13 ibidem, p.180. 14 Peter Calvocoressi, Rupei rndurile! Al doilea rzboi mondial i configurarea Europei postbelice, Ed.Polirom,Iasi ,2001 ,p.83. 15 Paul Dobrescu, Geopolitica, Editura comunicare.ro,Bucureti 2003, p.81.

i sincronizeze politicile externe n relaia cu Orientul Mijlociu, al crui petrol era extrem de important pentru toi . Aceast regiune care a combinat vreme de secole ispitele datorate misterului cu tentaiile bogtiei, exigenele contemporane erau accentuate de importana crucial a petrolului ntr-o perioad situat n epoca crbunelui i cea a energiei nucleare16, cea din urm utilizat ns pe scar mai redus, mai puin rentabil i oricum mai costisitoare. Prezena tot mai profund a Statelor Unite n regiune, precum i cele dou rzboaie cu Irakul , au impus una din prioritile geostrategice ale americanilor n Orientul Mijlociu- asigurarea securitii transportului petrolului.17n acest sens, necesitatea declanrii ostilitilor n timpul Primului Rzboiului din Golf , era dictat de protejarea statelor aliate SUA i detintoare de mari resurse petroliere,Emiratele Arabe Unite, i Arabia Saudit18, nemaipomenind de Kuweit direct afectat de intervenia irakian din anii 90. Departe de a fi pacificat pe deplin, ba din contr, n aceast zon ncadrat ntre state-pivot19, mai exist state,precum Iranul dornice de a deine hegemonia politicomilitar i economic a Orientului de Mijloc.Dei se arat sfidtor la adresa Occidentului in spcial la adresa Statelor Unite, provocnd ngrijorare prin repetatele sale manevre militare si iritnd puternic Israelul prin declaraiile sale ameninttoare20,rmne un actor imortant n regiune att din punct de vedere al stabilitii ct i n ceea ce privete rolul su de principal furnizor petrolier pentru statele Uniunii Europene. Dei exploatarea resurselor petroliere iraniene impune un cost intern crescut, i este fcut cu o tehnologie nvechit, Iranul deine totui locul trei din punct de vedere al rezervelor petroliere21.Acest stat dovedete deasemenea o extre m de abil folosire a petrolului ca arm n politica sa internaional,n contextul n care Statele Unite vor s mpiedice cu orice pre eforturile Iranului de a produce arme nucleare ,sprijinind n acest sens negocierile Marii Britanii,Frantei i Germaniei cu guvernul iranian pentru ca acesta s renune la programul de mbogire a uraniului n scopuri militare,n schimbul
16 17

Peter Calvocoressi, Europa...,p. 182. SUA i dilemele de securitate ale Orientului Mijlociu n Cadran Politic,Anul VI, nr.57-58, iunie-iulie 2008,p.26. 18 Zbigniew Brzezinski, Why to Fight-And why not to. in Newesweek, August,27,1990, p.27. 19 Paul Dobrescu, op.cit. p.342 20 Viorica Marin, Iranul sfideaz Occidentul, n Adevrul,Vineri 11 iulie 2008, p.9. 21 Drago Tbran , op. cit. p. 29.

stimulentelor comerciale europene . n septembrie 2004,Ahmedinajad ,preedintele Iranului susinea n mod categoric de la tribuna O.N.U. , dreptul acestui stat de folosire panic a energiei nucleare. Dac Consiliul de Securitate s-ar pronuna pentru sanciuni atunci potrivit presei occidentale Iranul ar refuza livrrile de petrol ctre acestea , provocnd grave derapaje economice i o cretere alarmant a petrolului pe piaa european.22 n peinsajul energetic al planetei energia nuclear joac un rol modest,iar problemele ridicate de problema deeurilor nu ntrevd o cretere a importanei acestui tip de energie. n viitor unele state chiar vor abandona aceast surs de energie datorit riscurilor i cheltuielilor ridicate la care se expun.23 Dei din puncct de vedere al politicii externe statul iranian se afl n relaii dificile cu Occidentul,totui acesta caut susinerea ct mai multor state ale lumii .Astfel i largete cercul relaiilor internationale cu state din Africa si din America de sud, n slujba ntreinerii acestora punnd desigur resursele sale petroliere. Intresul Iranului n Africa este dictat de gsirea a ct mai multor adepi pentru susinerea programului su nuclear .n Senegal preedintele acestei tri a anunat n urma intrevederii cu liderul iranian c acest stst asiatic urmaz s construiasc o rafinrie , un combinat chimic i o unitate de asamblare de maini n valore de 80 de milione de $. Statul Zimbabwe al preedintelui Mugabe izolat de comunitatea international datorit regimului d dictatur, este ajutat in schimb de Teheran prin contribuia la resuscitarea rafinriei din Zimbabwe i a politicii sale agricole, n trecut nfloritoare. Deasemenea ntreine relatii cu Africa de sud i Uganda folosind tot aceast politic a petrolului.24 n Venezuela n timp ce Chavez trecea la nationalizara companiilor petroliere occidentale firma petrolier PDVSA anuna lansarea unui proiect comun iranianovenezuelean n domeniul produciei de petrol n valoare de 4 miliarde de $.

22

Silviu Brucan, Secolul XXI.Viitorul Uniunii Europene.Rzboaiele secolului XXI, Editura Polirom,Iai, 2005,p.139. 23 Energia nuclear ntre scop civil i militar, n Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.20-21. 24 Virginia Mircea,Ambiia de putere global a Iranului, n Cadran Politic,Anul V,Nr.55,aprilie 2008, p.22.

Astfel Iranul urmrete o strategie de tip Soft power25.Statele Unite , i-au pierdut influena n acest stat o dat cu nationalizarea industriei petroliere, care constituiau pn n acel moment sursa principal de pe continntul sud american.26 Venezuela , alturi de Nigeria i Mexic, ri exportatoare de petrol au fost grav afectate n anii 80 cnd bncile occidentale au reuit s absoarb surplusul de petrol de la majoritatea trilor OPEC i cu ajutorul schimbului neechivalent faorabil exportului de echipamnt industrial i al ratei bancare nalte fixate de SUA , s transforme aceste ri n debitori cu datorii nfiortoare.27 Situaia geopolitic a acestui stat sud-american era destul de dificil, nainte de naionalizare i pe plan politic intern , scderea veniturilor rezultate din petrol ducnd la lansarea n planuri de exploatare a resurselor petroliere din Marea Caraibilor, abandonate ulterior datorit situaiei geopolitice dificile i pe plan extern , cu Columbia28 . Ce-i drept tensiunile la grania cu Columbia continu i astzi, grupurile de insurgeni columbienii provocnd dispute la grania dintre cele dou state.29 Acest nou val al naionalismului petrolier a ajuns si n Ecuador,unde Occidental Petroleum a fost expropriat, precum i n Peru n Bolivia, unde naionalizarea resurselor de gaz a fost adoptat fr dificulti, de ctre companiile strine , dintre care cea mai important era cea Brazilian Pertobras.30 Alte state asiatice,precum China i India datorit lipsei de resurse energetice vor trebui s asigure accesul continuu furnizorilor externi.Aceast necesitate constituie un factor major n modelarea politicilor externe, a acestor state a politiciilor de aprare i n sensul creterii puterii navale. Deasemenea , pentru a menine a rat stabil a creterii puterii lor economice se preconizeaz c acestea trebuie s-i sporeasc consumul energetic cu 150% pentru China i cu dublul consumului actual pentru India, staT care nregistrez un ritm mai accelerat al cresterii economice dect China.
31

Acest lucru a

25 26

ibidem. Drago Tbran , op. cit. p. 29. 27 Silviu Brucan, op. cit. ,p. 135. 28 Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual, Dicionar de geopolitic, Grupul editorial Corint,Bucureti,2003, p.260-261. 29 Arina Avram,Insurgenii FARC vor s-i ia revana n Adevrul,Luni 7 iulie 2008,p.16. 30 Jean-Pierre Sereni, Revenirea n for a statelor pe piaa petrolier, n Le Monde Diplomatique, ediia romn, ,Martie , 2007, An II-Nr. 12, p.19. 31 Yasheng Huang, Urmtorul miracol asiatic , n Foreign Policy, Iulie/August, 2008, p. 49.

afectat fr doar i poate cererea mondial de energie i a avut un impact substantial asupra relaiilor geopolitice,cu alte state ale lumii32. Influena geoeconomic i politic a Chinei se face simit i mai mult n cadrul Organizaiei Mondiale de la Shanghai-SCO (din care mai face parte Rusia, China, Kazahstan, Krghistan,Tadjikistan i Uzbekistan ;India, Pakistan , Iran i Mongolia avnd statut att de observatori ct i de viitori membrii) care se constituie ntr-o alternativ la extinderea U.E. i N.A.T.O., contracarnd intresele americane din Asia33, prin aplicarea unei politici de ngradire. Ptrundera Chinei n Asia central este justificat de cererea sa mare de energie, intergrarea regional fiind o soluie i pentru statele din regiune cu rol de tampon ntre Rusia i China 34, descentrarea acestora putndu-se face doar astfel. n luna august a anului 2005 o important companie chinez a achiziionat Petro-Kazahstan contra sumei de 4,2 miliarde de $. Acast prezena tot mai accentuat a Chinei pe plan economic mondial a contribuit la mrirea potenialului global de cretere economic, la inerea sub control a inflatiei i la declansarea de schimbri pozitie n domeniul muncii , al bunurilor i actiunilor.35 Pentru a-i face recunoscut i simit acest statut de mare putere economic China i-a extins aria de interes mai departe de continentul asiatic, ptrunznd pe piata petrolier i de pe alte continente ca Africa sau America de sud. Datorit acestei prezene chineze pe continentul negru rile exportatoare au de profitat. Astfel datorit Chinei Sudanul poate s exporte petrol iar economia sudanez dei afectat de rzboiul civil progreseaz mbucurtor. Deasemenea din acesta motiv China este interesat s susin conflictul civil sudanez meninnd un risc politic ridicat astfel nct companii precum Chevron, Total sau Shell plecate n anii 80 s nu se mai ntoarc dei dorete a convinge regimul c ar fi mai bine s nceteze ostilitile pentru a nu si pta reputaia de putere panic36. Mai bogat n resurse pe coasta vestic, continentul african, ntmpin totui dificulti n exportarea propriilor resurse , datorit problemelor politice i sociale
32 33

Lumea n 2020, p.79-80. Vasile Simileanu, Geopolitica resurselor energetice, n GeoPolitica,Anul V-Nr.23,Editura TOP FORM .Asociatia de geopolitic ,,ION CONEA,Bucureti, p.7. 34 Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual,op. cit. , p.195 35 Silviu Brucan, op. cit. p.136. 36 Serge Michel,Cnd China ntlneste Africa, n Foreign Policy, Iunie/Iulie 2008 ,p.70.

specifice acestui continent. Aceast situaie mpiedic accesul marilor companii petroliere la resursele energetice care se presupune c ofer n aceast zon un volum din ce n ce mai mare 37Acutizarea unor astfel de dificultti aduce un stat cum este Nigeria n pragul unei crize petroliere,datorit atacurilor insurgentilor islamiti asupra instalatiilor petroliere din delta Nigerului38,dei n anii 90 resursele petroliere ale acestui stat l faceau o important putere n V Africii posednd o industrie foarte agresiv i foarte dinamic.39 Deasemenea potrivit OPEC Nigeria i-a pierdut acest statut de cel mai mare productor petrolier al Africii n momentul in care a fost devansat de Angola 40. Dependena energetic a Europei de Federaia Rus , aduce totui n discuie i unele proiecte alternative care dac nu pot elimina definitiv aceast dependent ncearc mcar s o reduc. Un astfel de proiect intitulat Priectul NABUCO este n faza de proiect i are n edere constituirea unei rute alternatie car sa ocoleasc Rusia pe direcia Azerbaidjan-Georgia Turcia Marea Neagr-bulgaria-Romnia Ungaria-Austria. In acest fel se doedeste cum politica extern a unui stat depinde de importana geopolic a acestuia , incluznd i elaborarea unei strategii economice aferente (geoeconomie).41 Influena energetic rus se simte puternic i n centrul Europei,cooperarea Gazprom-OMVstrnind numerose temeri n Uniunea att datorit dorinei celor dou companii de a mpiedica proiectul sus mentionat42, ct i dorintei companiei austriece de a prelua compania maghiar MOL.43 Acest fapt era cosiderat de oficialii Uniunii drept un potenial precedent periculos datorit eventualului monopol pe care l-ar exercita compania austriac n colaborare cu Gazprom n Centrul Europei,acest ajungndu-se n cele din urm la abandonarea ofertei OMV pt.MOL44 Cu toate acestea, astzi cea mai importnt arm a Rusiei este potentialul su economic ( o crestere economic de 8% la nivelul anului 2007 i rezerve valutare n valoare de 506 miliarde$).Dei resursele energetice nu sunt totul rusia reprezint totusi
37 38

Lumea n 2020, p.79. Drago Tbran , op. cit, p.29. 39 Michael Maren, Energizing the Nation, in Newesweek, August,27,1990,p.26. 40 AFP, Nigerian presidential panel calls for reform of state oil firm. 41 Laureniu Constantiniu,Proiectul Nabuco i necunoscutle sale , n Cadran Politic, V,Nr.55, apr.2008,p.12. 42 Vladimir Socor, OMV se asociaza cu Gazprom pentru a submina proiectiul NABUCO, n Pulsul Geostrategic, Nr.22/5 Februarie 2008, p.4. 43 Elena Stnescu,UE critic preluarea Mol de ctre OMV, n Adevrul,Vineri 11 iulie , 2008, p48. 44 OMV renun la oferta pentru MOL, pe www.pulsulzilei.ro tirea1174403,o7.o8.2008.

cel mai mare exportator de gaze naturale i se preconizeaz c va devenii a Va putere economic mondial n jurul anului 2020.45Rusia prezint deasemenea o serie de proiecte alternative la NABUCO intitulate South Stream i Blue Stream(proiect Gazprom n colaborare cu compania italian ENI la care dorete s se afilieze Serbia i Ungaria), la acste adaugndu-se i priectul White Stream de concepie ucrainian, care complic oarecum lucrurile avnd n edere climatul politic instabil din regiune.46Depinde numai de liderii statelor din regiune , printre care si romnia optiunea pentru una ariantle de transport oferite. Deasemenea ,Compania rus Gazprtom -i lrgete cmpul de afaceri i n alte direcii precum Orientul Mijlociu sau Marea Neagr-Insula erpilor,ntr-o zon considerat strategic i din alte puncte de vedere, fiind esenial pentru o delimitare platoului continental dintre Romnia i Ucraina. De altfel n Marea Neagr, Turcia este cel mai important pivot american la grania masei continentale si culturale rusesti.Ct priveste Ucraina aceasta este o pies important n puzzel-ul occidental al traselor energetice, reglnd fluxul petrolier dintre Caspica i Orintul Mijlociu spre Europa.47 n condiiile preconizatei impuinri a actualelor resurse energetice(resursele petroliere din Marea Nordului au trecut deja de pragul maxim,urmnad actualmnte o curb descendent), statele lumii riverane la Oceanul Arctic se arat tot mai interesate de exploatarea resurslor existente n zon , n condiiile topirii tot mai acentuate a calotei glaciare . Un avans semnificativ n aceast curs de revendicare a unui teritoriu ct mai mare l-a luat tot Rusia, care n luna august a anului 2007 a plasat pe fundul Ocenului Arctic, la Polul Nord un steag al Federatiei Ruse din titan inoxidabil. Conform USGeological Survey 25% din rezerele mondiale de hidrocarburi ar exista la Polul Nord
48

.Aceast topire accelerat a calotei polare duce i la conturarea unei noi

geopolitici ntruct state desprtite de distante de mii de kilometrii aici sunt vecine49, iar

45 46

Alexandra Diaconescu, Noile tancuri ale Rusiei n Foreign Policy,iunie/iulie, 2008, p.33. Laureniu Constantini,op.cit. 47 Costin Ionescu,Marea Neagr un pivot geopolitic n disput? n Geopolitica,Nr.1(5),anIV, p.44. 48 Dominique Kapp,nceput de rzboi rece pe banchiz, n Le Monde diplomatique, editia romn, septembrie 2007, An,II. Nr.18. 49 Stan Petrescu,Goana dup resursele energtice.inta fierbinte Polul Nord, n GeoPolitica,An V, Nr.23,p.46.

10

altele precum China ,Japonia sau Coreea de Sud dei nu sunt nconjurate de banchize se arat interesate de ptrunderea n regiune50. Pe de alta parte chestiuni precum cresterea demografica si inclzirea global vor da startul unei lupte acerbe pentru asigurarea resurselor vitale :apa, suprafeele de uscat si sursele de energie.51In acest sens, la Washington s-a desfaurat la nceputul lunii august 2008 Joint Economic Committee( ?)sub egida Energia=combinatia dintre eficin i conservare,n cadrul cruia fostul presedinte american Jimmy Carter vorbind despre criza energetic din 1977 a afirmat :,,Cu excepia prevenirii rzboiului , acasta este cea mai mare provocare creia rile noastre vor trebui s-i fac fa , iar preedintele Joint Economic Committee-Sen Chuck Schumer a precizat :,,Unul dintre lucrurile bune care au rezultat dup ocul petrolului din anii 70 a fost ndemnul dramatic spre conservare energiei52. n viitorul nu prea ndeprtat att marii exportatori de petrol ct i marii importatori vor trebui s se gndeasc la un consum mai raional , ntruct o utilizare nechibzuit ar duce la efcte dezastruase att asupra mediului nconjurtor ct i asupra climatului politic mondial cu repercursiuni grave asupra relaiilor dintre statele lumii, fie ele mari sau mici.

50 51

Dominique Kapp,op.cit Paul Hirst,Rzboi i putere n secolul 21,Editura Antet,,Filipesti de Trg, Prahova ,p.87. 52 Bob Herhert,The Winning Hand in the Energy game, n Der Spiegel,August.05.1008www.spiegel.de/international

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1. The energetic resources and the geopolitics

To scan into the future means to search for answers to some contemporary questions starting from now. The global expansion of the industrial revolution in the second half of the 19th century imposed also the ingravescence of the arming race launched from de necessity to assure the energetic resources sustaining the new type of industry. In this way the First World War as well as the Second World War were distinguished by the race to assure the energetic resources, process that led to important geopolitics overturns. While the Cold War became obvious, in the context of control and under ideological cover, the necessity that the moments Great Powers assure not only the control over some areas in which there are countries that have important oil resources but also the transport routes necessary for the transportation of the oil was imposed. And also, more and more oil shocks generated mainly by the political crisis of the Middle Orient are registered too. Imposing USA as the only superpower at the end of the Cold War didnt bring her automatically the certitude in the domain of control over the energetic resources, the Second World War which had as primary cause the possession of the Iraqi oil resources by USA, emphasize this fact. Russia, possessor of a great energetic potential allowed itself to raise the bid of its external politics by imposing its point of view during the international reunions of great extent such as the recent ended NATO Summit from Bucharest. Making reference to the contemporary era, we will analyze the present situation of the energetic resources in the world at the level of the great exporters, of the great consumers, as well as the main evolutions predicted to happen in the near future. It wont be omitted the part Romania has in all this process. The importance of the oil as main energetic resource is not given only by its large scale use at but also by the fact that it is the most commercialized product at

12

global level receiving in this way a strategic importance too53. Undoubtedly this kind of statute influences in an important manner the decisions of the world leaders too, the politic being obliged to take special care of the benefic or malefic influence of the economical effects54. The economic - energetic crisis existed forever and will still exist, counteracting these crisis impose in a way the economic and political agenda of the world 55. This situation has en effect not only over the price of the oil but also over the price of the other economical products having also a strong impact over the poorest countries of the world reason for which the leaders of 7 African states proposed G8 at the meeting had in July 2008 in Japan, that is to double the annually help offered to Africa reported to the help given in 2004 of 25 billion $56. The dramatically rise of the price of the oil in the past few years especially after 2003 had important influences on the area of geopolitics. Russia outran from the economical depression and raised the bid of its own foreign politics using the subsidiary incomes obtained from oil and gas. China has an economical expansion and enters in Africa by force. The projects that have as main purpose the use of the exploitation of the hydrocarbon resources from the Sea of South China will increase the extent of the problems had with Taiwan or Japan57, the connection between the geopolitics of the region and the economical activities being indestructible especially for some states that do not depend on their own energetic resources. The relation between importers and exporters is bounded to the relations between different geopolitics and economical areas, here being also included not only the states of the world but also the great international enterprises or organizations that reunite all these
53

The Universal History Encyclopedia, De Agostini, All Educaional Printing House,Bucharest,2003,p.1015. (Enciclopedie de istorie Universal,.De Agostini,Editura All Educaional,Bucureti,2003,p.1015.) 54 Acad.Mircea Malia, Kissinger in Political Quadrant, Year VI,No.54,march 2008, p.67. (Acad.Mircea Malia, Kissinger n Cadran Politic,An VI,Nr.54,martie 2008, p.67.) 55 Vlatko Mileta,Les exportateurs de petrole in Revue de politique,Belgrade,No.748,1,VI,1981 apud Eugen Preda,TheOil Stake in the Vortex of the War, Militar Printing House,Bucureti ,1983. (Vlatko Mileta,Les exportateurs de petrole n Revue de politique,Belgrade,No.748,1,VI,1981 apud Eugen Preda,Miza petrolului n vltoarea rzboiului,Ed.Militar,Bucureti ,1983.) 56 Elena Stnescu, The leaders of the world speak about oil and food, in Adevrul,Tuesday ,8 July 2008,p.48. (Elena Stnescu,Liderii lumii vorbesc despre petrol i hran, n Adevrul,Mari ,8 iulie 2008,p.48.) 57 Drago Tbran, Oil: the signs of the crisis? p.29 in Cadran Politic,Year VI, nr.57-58, June-July 2008. (Drago Tbran, Petrolul :semnele crizei? ,p.29 n Cadran Politic,Anul VI, nr.57-58, iunie-iulie 2008.)

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states. However, speaking about states, some of them base their foreign politics on the relation with the users. The unquestionable supremacy of the 20s-60s of the great international enterprises (the seven sisters) : Texaco, Gulf, Standard Oil of New Jersey, Soconi Mobil Oil, Standard Oil Co. of California-American enterprises; British Oil-Great Britain and Royal Dutch Shell, English-Dutch enterprise, is interrupted by the constitution of O.P.E.C (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) in 1960. As a consequence, the Arabic states began to impose to the occidental countries that patented the extraction of the oil, important increases of the prices and precise restrictions 58. The marine resources do not represent an important interest, the tide driven plants of the 60s, from France and Russia, still being in an experimental phase. The fossil resources - those resources that are not renewable that is: pit coal and hydrocarbon are highly searched so exhaustible, although this growth of their value determines their predictable prospecting not only at the level of the continental platform but also in depth but also towards the continental platform59, all these facts requiring substantial expenses, their exploitation being sometimes without any profit. For occidental Europe, the Europe of the Cold War, organized economically in C.E.C.O (The European Coal and Steel Community - ECSC), the coal began to be less important than the oil, the natural gases and the atomic energy in the world competition for energy60. As a result of the energy crisis of the 70s and especially the ones from the beginning of the 80s (1973, 1978-1981), including the Yom Kippur War and the Iranian revolution, the price of the petroleum barrel will increase from 13$ to 35$, determining a reorientation towards the alternative energy resources that is: coal, atomic energy stations and natural gases. However a thing was obvious, the oil became a political pressure instrument, its eventual price increases leading to important imbalances in the payment balance of the importer countries, most of them sustaining Israel61.

58 59

The Universal History Encyclopedia p.1015. (Enciclopedie de istorie Universal p.1015.) The Resources of the World Ocean threatened in Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.18-19. (Resursele oceanului mondial ameninate n Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.18-19.) 60 Peter Calvocoressi, Europe from Bismark to Gorbaciov,Polirom Printing House Iasi ,2003, p.178. (Peter Calvocoressi, Europa de la Bismark la Gorbaciov,Ed.Polirom,Iasi ,2003, p.178) 61 The Universal History Encyclopedia p.1015. (Enciclopedie de istorie Universal, p.1015.)

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The governmental measures adopted then had as purpose the increase of the acquisition expenses of the oil, or the reduction of the oil imports and of the dependent industrial activities. On the basis of the economic regress registered by CEE, regress demonstrated by customs conflicts, monetary imbalance and the growth of the unemployment rate, France refuses to accept an agreement between Europeans and the United States to share the oil in the case of a crisis like the one from 1973 when the growth in the price of the oil made it difficult to obtain62. USA learned a lesson hardly to forget; it is better detaining the monopole over the exploitation of the oil resources in more places, one can set the price, and if the resources controlled diminish, one would still dispose of a financial capital that would be invested in alternative energy resources. The International Energy Agency estimates that just with a few substantial investments in the new energetic capabilities, all the energetic resources will be enough to cover the global demand63. However, during the 80s, Europe was to breathe disburdened because of the reduction of the price of the oil products coming from the North Sea where more British business people decided to invest even though this reduction of the taxes over the oil products wouldnt bring long term benefits64. In this way the no adhering to C.E.E of Norway happened because of the belief that the oil resources are irrelevant as a whole, a readjustment on a large scale of the national economy towards this branch would destroy, in the Norwegians opinion, the economy of the small fisherman65. The Middle Orient, the special geostrategic importance area for every great power, with a doubled value because of the important oil resources was seen by the Europeans, immediately after the First World War, as an interest center. They were represented in the region even before the first conflagration but the French and the English in quality of great colonial powers came in the former Ottoman territories that are: Syria, Iraq, Palestine and Transjordan and considered them territories under mandate. Surely, the majority of these regions, regions rich in energetic resources were taken by
62 63

Peter Calvocoressi, Quoted work. ( Peter Calvocoressi,op.cit). The World in 2020. A profile of the global future presented by the National Council of Information of the USA. Cartier Printing House, Bucharest, p.79. (Lumea n 2020.O schi a viitorului global prezentat de consiliul Naional de Informatii a SUA, Ed.Cartier, Bucuresti, p.79.) 64 Peter Calvocoressi, Quoted work, pp,169-171. (Peter Calvocoressi, cited work, pp,169-171.) 65 ibidem, p.180. (ibidem, p.180.)

15

the British. For Churchill, then admiral lord, this region was a more vast area, he was member in the govern initiating the first British campaign dealing with the exploitation of the Iranian oil, important step as the period of time when the steamships were replaced with the ones using oil as fuel, he was also one of the first people initiated in the politics of oil66. At the end of the Second World War the British at their turn, will loose the economic preponderance in the region after they came, following the Germans present even from the end of the 19th century in a region found in the center of the concerns of pangermanism and a region enframing a vast geopolitics space for the German expansion of the Berlin-Baghdad Axis67. Even though the United States invaded the economic spaces reserved by the British, as well as the Iranian oil fields, CEE tried, in the 60s, to synchronize its foreign politics in the relation with the Middle Orient because the oil it had was extremely important for all. In this region which combined for centuries the temptations determined by the mystery and the temptation of richness, the contemporary exigencies were accentuated by the crucial importance of the oil in the coal and atomic energy68 era, the last one being used at a reduced scale less profitable and more expensive. The more and more serious presence of the United States in this region imposed one of the geostrategic priorities of the Americans in Middle Orient that is to assure the security of the transportation of the oil69. In this sense the necessity to begin the hostilities during the First War of the Golf was dictated by the protection of the allied states of USA also states having great oil resources that is United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia70, not mentioning Kuwait who was directly affected by the Iraqi intervention from the 90s. Far from being fully pacified, on the contrary, in this area enframed between pivot
66

Peter Calvocoressi, Break the lines! The Second World War and the configuration of pos-war Europe, Polirom Printing House, Iasi, 2001, p.83. (Peter Calvocoressi, Rupei rndurile! Al doilea rzboi mondial i configurarea Europei postbelice, , Ed.Polirom,Iasi, 2001, p.83.) 67 Paul Dobrescu, Geopolitics, Comunicare.ro Printing House,Bucharest, 2003, p.81. (Paul Dobrescu, Geopolitica, Editura Comunicare.ro,Bucureti 2003, p.81.) 68 Peter Calvocoressi, Europe...p.182. (Peter Calvocoressi, Europa...p.182.) 69 USA and the security dilemmas of the Middle Orient in Cadran Politic, Year VI, no.57-58, June-July 2 008,p.26. (SUA i dilemele de securitate ale Orientului Mijlociu n Cadran Politic,Anul VI, nr.57-58, iuni e-iulie 2008,p.26.) 70 Zbigniew Brzezinski, Why to Fight-And why not to. in Newesweek, August,27,1990, p.27. (Zbigniew Brzezinski, Why to Fight-And why not to. n Newesweek, August,27,1990, p.27.)

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states71 there still are states like Iran willing to detain the politic-military and economical hegemony of the Middle Orient. Even though this thing seems to be defiant towards the Occident especially towards The United States provoking anxieties by the repeated military maneuvers and irritating strongly Israel by its threatening messages72, it still remains an important actor in the region from both the point of view of the stability and from the role it has as leading oil supplier for the states of the European Union. Even though the exploitation of the Iranian oil resources imposes a high intern cost and it is made using an old technology, Iran is on the 3rd place from the point of view of the oil supplies73. This state also proves that an extremely skilful use of the oil as weapon in its international politics in the context in which the United States want to prevent with any cost the efforts of Iran to produce atomic weapons, for this purpose sustaining the negotiations of Great Britain, France and Germany with the Iranian government that this one renounce at the enrichment program of uranium in military purposes in exchange of the commercial European stimulants. In September 2004 Ahmedinajad, president of Iran was sustaining absolutely, from the UN tribune, the right of this state to use peacefully the atomic energy. If the Security Council would pronounce for sanctions then according the occidental press Iran would refuse to deliver the oil to these countries provoking serious economical sideslips and an alarming growth of the petroleum on the European market74. In the planets energetic scenery the atomic energy plays a modest role but the problems of the waste do not predict any growth of the importance of this type of energy. In the future some states would abandon this source of energy because of the risks and of the prodigalities to which they are exposed75. Even though from the point of view of the foreign politics the Iranian state has a difficult relationship with the Occident however it searches the sustaining of more of the worlds states. Hereby it enlarges the circle of international relations with states from
71 72

Paul Dobrescu, Quoted work, p.342 (Paul Dobrescu, op.cit. p.342) Viorica Marin, Iran Challenges the Occident, in Adevrul, Friday 11 July 2008, p.9. (Viorica Marin, Iranul sfideaz Occidentul, n Adevrul,Vineri 11 iulie 2008, p.9.) 73 Drago Tbran , Quoted work. p. 29. (Drago Tbran , op. cit. p. 29.) 74 Silviu Brucan, XXI Century. The future of the European Union. The wars of the XXI century. ,Polirom Printing House,Iai, 2005,p.139. (Silviu Brucan, Secolul XXI.Viitorul Uniunii Europene.Rzboaiele secolului XXI, Editura Polirom,Iai, 2005,p.139.) 75 Atomic Energy between civil and military purpose, in Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.20-21. (Energia nuclear ntre scop civil i militar, n Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.20-21.)

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Africa and South America offering them of course, its oil resources. The interest of Iran in Africa is to find as many supporters as possible to sustain its atomic program. In Senegal the president of this country announced, after a meeting had with the Iranian leader, that this Asian state is to build a refinery, an atomic combine and a car assembling unit of 80 million $. The Zimbabwe state, the state of the president Mugabe, isolated by the international community because of its dictatorial form of government is helped by Teheran contributing at the resuscitation of the refinery from Zimbabwe and at the resuscitation of its agricultural politics, a flourishing one in the past. He also has relations with South Africa and Uganda using the same politics, the politics of the oil76. In Venezuela while Chavez was passing at the nationalization of the occidental oil enterprises the oil enterprise PDVSA announced the launching of a new common project Iranian-Venezuelan in the domain of oil production worth 4 billion $. In this way Iran follows a Soft Power77 type strategy. The United States lost its influence in this state along with the nationalization of the oil industry which represented until that moment the major source of the South American continent78. Venezuela, together with Nigeria and Mexico, countries exporting oil, were severely affected in the 80s when the occidental banks managed to occlude the oil surplus from the majority of the OPEC countries and with the help of the non-equivalent exchange favorable to the industrial equipment export and with the help of the high banking rate established by USA, to transform these countries in debtors with terrible debts79. The geopolitics situation of this South American state was difficult enough, before the nationalization and on intranational political plan, the decrease of the incomes issued from the oil, leading to the launching of the exploitation plans of the oil resources from the Caribbean Sea, abandoned subsequently because of the difficult geopolitics situation, and on foreign plan, with Colombia80. The truth is that the tensions at the
76

Virginia Mircea, The ambition to global power of Iran, in Cadran Politic,YearV,No55,april2008, p.22. (Virginia Mircea,Ambiia de putere global a Iranului, n Cadran Politic,Anul V,Nr.55,aprilie 2008, p.22.) 77 ibidem. (ibidem.) 78 Drago Tbran , Quoted work. p. 29. (Drago Tbran , op. cit. p. 29.) 79 Silviu Brucan, Quoted work. ,p. 135. ( Silviu Brucan, op. cit. ,p. 135.) 80 Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual, Geopolitics dictionary, Corint Printing Group,Bucharest,2003, p.260-261.(Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual, Dicionar de geopolitic, Grupul editorial Corint,Bucureti,2003, p.260-261.) 29 Arina Avram, The FARC rebels want to take their revenge in Adevrul,Monday7 July 2008,p.16. (Arina Avram,Insurgenii FARC vor s-i ia revana n Adevrul,Luni 7 iulie 2008,p.16.)

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Colombian border still exist, the groups of rebels provoking controversies at the border of the two states81. This new wave of the oil nationalism reached Ecuador too, where the nationalization of the gas resources was adopted by the foreign enterprises without any difficulties, the most important of all being Brazilian Pertobras82. Other Asian states like China and India because of the lack of energetic resources will have to assure their continuous access of the foreign suppliers. This necessity is a major agent in the adaptation of the foreign politics of these states, the defense politics and in the sense of the growth of the naval power too. As well, to maintain a stable rate of the growth of their economical power, its foreseen that China has to increase with 150% its energetic consumption and India has to double its present consumption, state that registers an accelerated rhythm of the economical growth more accelerated than Chinas rhythm83. This thing affected surely the world demand for energy and it had a substantial impact on the geopolitics relations with other states of the world84. The geoeconomical and political influence of China makes itself felt more, within the World Organization from Shanghai (which has as members Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kirzikistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia being observers and future members) which is constituted in an alternative at the expansion of EU and NATO counteracting the American interests from Asia85, by practicing an enclosing politic. The entrance of China in Central Asia is justified by its
30

Jean-Pierre Sereni, The return in force of the states on the oil market, in Le Monde Diplomatique, romanian edition, March , 2007, Year II-Nr. 12, p.19. (Jean-Pierre Sereni, Revenirea n for a statelor pe piaa petrolier, n Le Monde Diplomatique, ediia romn, ,Martie , 2007, An II-Nr. 12, p.19.) 31 Yasheng Huang, The next Asian miracle, in Foreign Policy, July/August, 2008, p. 49. (Yasheng Huang, Urmtorul miracol asiatic , n Foreign Policy, Iulie/August, 2008, p. 49.) 32 The world in 2020, p.79-80. (Lumea n 2020, p.79-80.)
81 82 83 84
85

Vasile Simileanu, The energetic resources geopolitics, in GeoPolitica,Year V-No.23,TOP FORM Printing House.,,ION CONEA Geopolitics association, Bucharest, p.7. (Vasile Simileanu, Geopolitica resurselor energetice, n GeoPolitica,Anul V-Nr.23,Editura TOP FORM .Asociatia de geopolitic ,,ION CONEA,Bucureti, p.7.) 34 Aymeric Chaupraby,Franois Thual, Quoted work, p.195 (Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual,op. cit. , p.195)

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great energy demand, the regional integration being a solution for the states from the region that are tampon states between Russia and China86, their decentration being made just in this way. In august 2005 an important Chinese enterprise bought Petro-Kazahstan for 4, 2 billion $. This more and more accentuated presence of China on the worlds economical plan, contributed to the growth of the potential global economic growth, to the control of inflation and to the realizing of some positive changes in the domain of work, of the goods and of the shares87. To acknowledge this statute of great economical power China expanded its interest area further the Asian continent entering the oil market of the other continents like Africa or South America. Thanks to this Chinese presence on the black continent the exporting countries can profit. In this way, thanks to China, Sudan can export oil and the Sudanian economy even though affected by the Sudanian civil war has a joyful progress. From this reason too, China is interested to sustain the Sudanian civil conflict maintaining a high political risk so that enterprises like Chevron, Total or Shell gone in the 80s never come back even though it wishes to convince the form of government that it would be better to put an end to the hostilities to keep its reputation of peaceful power88. Richer in resources on the vest coast the African continent encounters difficulties in exporting its own resources because of the particular social and political problems of this continent. This situation prevents the access of the great oil enterprises to the energetic resources that are supposed to offer in this area a bigger volume89. The ingravescence of this type of difficulties bring a state like Nigeria on the verge of an oil crisis because of the attacks of the Islamic rebels over the oil units found in the Nigerian delta90, even though the oil resources of the 90s of this state made it an important power

8635 8736 88

Silviu Brucan, Quoted work. p.136. (Silviu Brucan, op. cit. p.136.) Serge Michel, When China meets Africa, in Foreign Policy, June/July 2008 ,p.70. (Serge Michel,Cnd China ntlneste Africa, n Foreign Policy, Iunie/Iulie 2008 ,p.70.)

89 90

The world in 2020, p.79.( Lumea n 2020, p.79.) Drago Tbran , Quoted work, p.29. (Drago Tbran , op. cit, p.29.)

20

of the Vest Africa with an aggressive and very dynamic industry91. As well, according to OPEC Nigeria lost this statute of the greatest oil producer of Africa in the moment in which it was out passed by Angola92. The Europes energetic dependency to the Russian Federation brings though in discussion some alternative programs too, programs that if cannot eliminate definitively this dependence at least try to reduce it. A program like this named NABUCO Project its still in work and it has as purpose the establishment of an alternative route that by-passes Russia on the Azerbaijan-Georgia Turkey Black Sea-Bulgaria-RomaniaHungaryAustria. In this way it is marked out the fact that the foreign politics of a state depends on its geopolitics importance including the elaboration of an afferent economical strategy (geo-economics)93. The Russian energetic influence is felt powerfully in the center of Europe too, the cooperation Gazprom-OMV provoking numerous fears in the Union because of the desire of the two enterprises to discourage the above mentioned project94 but as well because of the Austrian enterprise to take over the Hungarian enterprise MOL95. This fact was considered by the Unions officials a potential dangerous foregoing because of the eventual monopole that the Austrian enterprise would exert, in collaboration with Gazprom, in the Center of the Europe this fact leading finally to the abandoning of the OMV offer for MOL96. Nevertheless, nowadays, the most important weapon of Russia is its economical potential (an economical growth of 8% in 2007 and rates stock 506 billion $ worth). Even though the energetic resources are not everything Russia represents however the greatest natural gases exporter and it is foreseen that itll become the 5 th world economy power
91

Michael Maren, Energizing the Nation, in Newesweek, August,27,1990,p.26. (Michael Maren, Energizing the Nation, in Newesweek, August,27,1990,p.26.) 92 AFP, Nigerian presidential panel calls for reform of state oil firm. (AFP, Nigerian presidential panel calls for reform of state oil firm.) 93 Laureniu Constantiniu, NABUCO Project and its obscurities, in Cadran Politic, V,No.55, apr.2008,p.12. (Laureniu Constantiniu,Proiectul Nabuco i necunoscutle sale , n Cadran Politic, V,Nr.55, apr.2008,p.12.) 94 Vladimir Socor, OMV associates with Gazprom to undermine the NABUCO project, in Pulsul Geostrategic, No.22/5 February 2008, p.4. (Vladimir Socor, OMV se asociaza cu Gazprom pentru a submina proiectiul NABUCO, n Pulsul Geostrategic, Nr.22/5 Februarie 2008, p.4.) 95 Elena Stnescu, EU criticizes the taking over of MOL by OMV, in Adevrul,Friday 11 July , 2008, p48. (Elena Stnescu, UE critic preluarea Mol de ctre OMV, n Adevrul,Vineri 11 iulie , 2008, p48.) 96 OMV renounces at the offer for MOL, on www.pulsulzilei.ro news 1174403, o7.o8.2008. (OMV renun la oferta pentru MOL, pe www.pulsulzilei.ro tirea 1174403,o7.o8.2008.)

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around year 202097. Russia also presents a series of alternative projects to NABUCO named South Stream and Blue Stream (Gazprom project in collaboration with the Italian enterprise ENI to which Serbia and Hungary want to affiliate) to these projects is added the White Stream project of Ukrainian concept which in a way complicates the things, having in mind the fact that the political climate in the area is instable 98. The option for one of the means of transport offered depends only on the leaders of the region including Romania. However, the Russian enterprise Gazprom enlarges its business field in other directions too like the Middle Orient or the Black Sea-The Island of Snakes, in an area considered strategic from other points of view too, being essential for a delimitation of the continental plateau between Romania and Ukraine. Besides, in the Black Sea, Turkey is the most important American pivot at the border of the Russian continental and cultural mass. Regarding Ukraine, it represents an important piece in the occidental puzzle of the energetic routes adjusting the oil flux between Caspian Sea and Middle Orient towards Europe99. In the conditions of the planed decrease of the present energetic resources (the oil resources from the North Sea have already passed the maximum threshold following for the moment a descendent curve) the riverside resident states at the Arctic Ocean are more and more interested in the exploitation of the resources found in the area in the conditions of more and more accentuated melting of the glacial calotte. An important advance in this pretension race for a bigger territory was also taken by Russia which in August 2007 placed at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean at North Pole, a flag of the Russian Federation made from stainless titanium. According to USGeological Survey 25% of the world hydrocarbon reserves are at the North Pole100. This accelerated melting of the glacial calotte leads also to the delineation of a new geopolitics since states separated by miles

97

Alexandra Diaconescu, The new Tanks of Russia, in Foreign Policy, June/July, 2008, p.33. (Alexandra Diaconescu, Noile tancuri ale Rusiei n Foreign Policy,iunie/iulie, 2008, p.33.) 98 Laureniu Constantini, Quoted work .(Laureniu Constantini,op.cit.) 99 Costin Ionescu, The Black Sea a geopolitics pivot in dispute? in Geopolitics,No.1(5),Year IV, p.44. (Costin Ionescu,Marea Neagr un pivot geopolitic n disput? n Geopolitica,Nr.1(5),anIV, p.44.) 100 Dominique Kapp, Beginning of a cold war on the ice bank, in Le Monde diplomatique, romanian edition, September 2007, Year,II. No.18. (Dominique Kapp,nceput de rzboi rece pe banchiz, n Le Monde diplomatique, editia romn, septembrie 2007, An,II. Nr.18.)

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and miles of kilometers are now neighbors101, and other states like China, Japan and South Korea even though are surrounded by ice banks appear to be interested in the entrance in the area102. On the other hand problems like the demographic growth and the global warming will start a severe fight for the assurance of the vital resources: water, dry land and energy sources103. For this purpose at Washington, at the beginning of August 2008, has displayed a Joint Economic Committee under the aegis Energy=the combination between efficiency and conservation, during which the American president Jimmy Carter speaking about the energetic crisis form 1977 said: Excepting the war prevention, this is the greatest challenge our countries have to deal with and the president of the Joint Economic Committee-Sen Chuck Schumer said : One of the good things resulting after the oil shock of the 70s was the dramatic impulse towards the conservation of the energy104. In the near future the great oil exporters as well as the great importers will have to think over a more rational input because a thoughtless use would bring disastrous effects over the environment as well as over the world political climate with serious consequences on the relations between states, either big or small.

101

Stan Petrescu, The rush over the energetic resources. The hot goal North Pole, in GeoPolitics, Year V, No.23,p.46. (Stan Petrescu,Goana dup resursele energtice.inta fierbinte Polul Nord, n GeoPolitica,An V, Nr.23,p.46.) 102 Dominique Kapp, Quoted work (Dominique Kapp, op.cit.) 103 Paul Hirst, War and power in the 21 century, Antet Printing House, Filipesti de Trg, Prahova ,p.87. (Paul Hirst,Rzboi i putere n secolul 21,Editura Antet,,Filipesti de Trg, Prahova ,p.87.) 104 Bob Herhert, The Winning Hand in the Energy game, in Der Spiegel,August.05.1008www.spiegel.de/international (Bob Herhert,The Winning Hand in the Energy game, n Der Spiegel,August.05.1008-www.spiegel.de/international)

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