Fodor Mihaela Alexandra

IE-anul II-grupa 8731

TRADUCERE DIN LB ROMANA IN LB.

ENGLEZA

EUROPA E GATA SA TREACA RUBICONUL

Lumea financiara si-a pus mari sperante in data de 22
ianuarie 2015, cand este de asteptat ca presedintele Bancii
Centrale Europene (BCE), italianul Mario Draghi, sa anunte oficial
trecerea la relaxarea cantitativa pe scara larga (QE) prin
cumparare masiva de obligatiuni suverane.
Pentru Europa, acest moment marcheaza o adevarata trecere a
Rubiconului (expresie ce inseamna a depasi un punct fara intoarcere; se
refera la traversarea raului cu acelasi nume din Italia de catre Iulius Cezar,
in anul 49 i.Hr., lucru ce a fost considerat o declaratie de razboi - n.red.).
El are loc in contextul in care BCE a ezitat mai bine de cinci ani sa
faca acest pas, pe care alte banci centrale importante inca nici acum nu se
hotarasc sa-l faca, se arata intr-o analiza Project Syndicate.
Tiparirea de bani pentru achizitia de obligatiuni guvernamentale,
operatiune cunoscuta sub numele de relaxare cantitativa (quantitative
easing - QE, in engleza), este vazuta ca unul dintre ultimele instrumente
aflate la dispozitia BCE pentru revigorarea inflatiei, in conditiile in care
dobanda de politica monetara este de numai 0,05%, iar neincrederea
privind efectul masurilor deja adoptate de institutie este in crestere.
Momentul este favorabil
Pasul hotarator a fost decis dupa ce a fost convins si ultimul opozant
important, reprezentantul Frantei in Comitetul Executiv al BCE, Benoit
Coeure.
In conjunctura actuala, sunt multe argumente favorabile. In ultimii
doi ani, rata inflatiei in zona euro se mentine sub 2%. In luna noiembrie
2014, cresterea preturilor calculata la nivel anual s-a limitat la 0,3%.
Recenta scadere spectaculoasa a pretului la petrol exercita presiuni pentru
scaderea in continuare a acestui indice.
Nu trebuie scapat din vedere nici faptul ca previziunile privind
inflatia pe termen mediu se fixeaza in prezent sub valoarea tinta luata in
calcul initial.
Pietele financiare considera ca relaxarea cantitativa este atat de
probabila, incat au anticipat deja ratele obligatiunilor si ratele de schimb.
Au facut foarte bine, dar in cazul cand se poticneste programul - ceea ce
nu este de dorit - piata de obligatiuni si piata de schimb s-ar confrunta cu
o relaxare brutala si cu consecinte greu de estimat.
Astfel, ratele dobanzilor pe termen lung s-ar ridica rapid, pietele
bursiere ar intra in degringolada, iar cursul de schimb s-ar aprecia simtitor.

Fodor Mihaela Alexandra

IE-anul II-grupa 8731

Sunt exact fenomenele de care Europa n-are nevoie atunci cand incearca
sa atinga intr-un an acea crestere, pe care Statele Unite au obtinut-o intrun trimestru.
Retinerile Bundesbank
De altfel, ceea ce incearca acum Europa, in conceptia presedintelui
BCE, Mario Draghi, nu este decat un mod de redresare economica dupa
model american, mod care daca a reusit perfect in America, nu are de ce
sa nu reuseasca la fel de bine si pe vechiul continent.
Totusi, Bundesbank - banca centrala a Germaniei - se arata rezervata
fata de optimismul BCE, socotind ca urmarile recentelor evolutii ale
preturilor ar putea fi mai severe decat par, iar relaxarea cantitativa s-ar
desfasura defavorabil in acest caz. Aceasta opinie o impartasesc mai multi
experti din conducerea bancii germane.
De altfel, institutia se opune oricarui ajutor care i s-ar cere pentru
unii membri indatorati din zona euro, conform prevederilor din programul
Draghi. Banca germana exclude din start un sprijin preferential din partea
BCE pentru o anumita tara, intrucat aceasta ar insemna o incalcare a
separatiei dintre politica fiscala si cea monetara.
Cu alte cuvinte, cine o festeleste sa se descurce in suc propriu.
Eventualul ajutor ar putea fi acordat numai de parlamentele
respective si in niciun caz de catre Banca Centrala. Banca ar putea ajuta
numai prin achizitionarea de obligatiuni de stat, dupa toate regulile
bancare.
In acest domeniu, este interesanta experienta Japoniei. Acolo, banca
centrala detine deja titluri de stat la nivel de 40% din PIB si s-a mai
angajat sa cumpere anual noi obligatiuni, pana la 16% din PIB.
Experienta Japoniei
Volumul acestor achizitii face ca banca centrala a Japoniei sa
controleze de fapt pe deplin piata titlurilor de stat, stabilind singura pretul
de tranzactionare sau rascumparare a lor.
Aceasta situatie mareste increderea in stat, iar incredrea este
cruciala pentru o banca centrala, care abia demareaza propria ei politica,
QE. Dar din pacate asemenea politica lipseste in Europa si poate ca in asta
consta punctul ei slab.
Faptul devine cu atat mai complicat, cu cat BCE cuprinde un evantai
de state din zona euro. Este greu sa-ti imaginezi ca toate vor actiona
vreodata la unison.
Nimeni nu se indoieste ca, prin programul Draghi, Europa isi asuma
unele riscuri, dar fara riscuri sansele ei sunt sa bata pasul tot pe loc. A
sosit momentul sa treaca Rubiconul, iar acesta se numeste QE.
Pe scurt, Mario Draghi este hotarat sa joace cartea Europei pe 22
ianuarie. Experienta americana si cea japoneza lasa de inteles ca are
sanse sa castige. Deocamdata, n-a jucat nimeni in pierdere, dar multe alte
banci centrale ezita sa incerc.

Fodor Mihaela Alexandra

IE-anul II-grupa 8731

Europe is ready to pass the Rubicon

The financial world puts high hopes on 22 January 2015 when it is
expected that the European Central Bank President (ECB), Italian Mario
Draghi, has officially announced the transition to large-scale quantitative
easing (QE) by massive buying of bonds sovereign.
For Europe, this moment marks a true crossing the Rubicon
(expression means to overcome a point of no return, refers to crossing the
river with the same name in Italy by Julius Caesar in 49 BC, which was
considered a declaration of war - n.red.).
It takes place in the context where the ECB hesitated over five years
to take that step, that other major central banks still didnt decide to do it,
said in an analysis Project Syndicate.
Printing money to purchase government bonds, an operation known
as quantitative easing (quantitative easing - QE, in English), is seen as one
of the latest tools available to the ECB for reviving inflation, given that
monetary policy rate is only 0.05% and distrust on the effect of measures
already taken by the institution is increasing.
The moment is favorable
Plunge was decided after last opponent was confident and important
representative of France in the Executive Board, Benoit Coeur.
In the current situation, there are many arguments favorable. In the
past two years, the inflation rate in the euro area remains below 2%. In
November 2014 calculated on an annual price increase was limited to
0.3%. The recent dramatic drop in oil prices put pressure lowering further
the index.
You do not have overlooked the fact that the medium-term inflation
forecasts is fixed now below the target initially taken into account.
Financial markets believe that quantitative easing is so probable,
that had already anticipated bond rates and exchange rates. They did very
well, but if you stumble program - which is not desirable - bond market

Fodor Mihaela Alexandra

IE-anul II-grupa 8731

and exchange market would face a brutal and relaxation with

consequences difficult to predict.
Thus, long-term interest rates would rise rapidly, stock markets
would fall in prostration, and the exchange rate would appreciate
significantly. They are exactly the phenomena that Europe does not need
when trying to achieve in a year that growth, the United States had
acquired a quarter.
deductions Bundesbank
In fact, what Europe is trying, in conception ECB President Mario
Draghi is just a way of economic recovery after the American model, that
way if succeeded perfectly in America, why does not fail as well on the old
continent.
However, the Bundesbank - Germany's central bank - shows
optimism reserved to the ECB, considering the consequences of recent
price developments may be more severe than they seem, and quantitative
easing would perform worst in this case. This opinion I share many experts
from German bank management.
Moreover, the institution opposes any help that i would ask for some
indebted euro zone members, according to Draghi program. German bank
excludes the preferential support from the ECB for a particular country,
because it would mean a violation of the separation of fiscal and monetary
policy.
In other words, who's going to handle festeleste own juice.
The possible aid could be granted only by the respective parliaments
and in any case by the Central Bank. Bank could only help by purchasing
government bonds, after all banking rules.
In this area, the interesting experience of Japan. There, the central
bank already owns bonds at 40% of GDP and more committed annually to
buy new bonds, up to 16% of GDP.
Experience Japan
The volume of these acquisitions makes Bank of Japan actually fully
control the government securities market, establishing single trading price
or ransom them.
This situation increases the confidence in the state and, trust is
crucial for a central bank that only starts her own policy, QE. But
unfortunately also lacks policy in Europe and perhaps herein lies its weak
point.

Fodor Mihaela Alexandra

IE-anul II-grupa 8731

The fact becomes even more complicated, the more the ECB
encompasses a range of euro area countries. It is hard to imagine that all
will ever act in unison.
No one doubts that the program Draghi, Europe assume some risks,
but they are risk free chance to beat up everything in place. It is time to
pass the Rubicon, and this is called QE.
In short, Mario Draghi is determined to play the card of Europe on
January 22. American and Japanese experience suggests that the chances
to win. For now, he played one at a loss, but many other central banks
hesitate to try.

TRADUCERE DIN LB. ENGLEZA IN LB.

ROMANA
Turkey is looking for oil in the western
Black Sea: Investment of $ 300 million
Turkish state company TPAO and the gigantic energetic Shell
starts in January the explorations in the western part of the Black
Sea, and your investment will reach at about 300 million dollars.
The announcement was made Tuesday by the Istanbul Energy
Minister Taner Yildiz during an event which marked the start of operations,
informs Daily Sabah.
"The ship Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa collected seismic data, and some
were relevant. But this boat is not enough for us, so it is building one in
Tuzla (a suburb of Istanbul, where there is a shipyard - n.red. ), which will
launch in water later in March , "said Yildiz.
"Our priority is to improve as much as possible the use of national
energy resources. Bulgaria and Romania have discovered oil and gas

Fodor Mihaela Alexandra

IE-anul II-grupa 8731

resources in the region, so we are confident to the results of the

partnership between TPAO and Shell ," he added.
Turkey has no proven oil reserves, but TPAO leads exploration
operations with private companies.
"5% of the country's need of oil and 2% of natural gas come from the
national natural resources. With this new well, we will get important
information and we realize if there is oil in the western Black Sea. These
operations are important exploration operation because Turkey wants to
increase the production of resources, "said the head of Shell Turkey, Ahmet
Erdem.
In the exploration activities from Western Black Sea, the two companies
will invest about 300 million dollars, and they will be held at 100
kilometers from Istanbul, at depths of over 2,000 meters, shows Natual
Gas Europe.
OMV Petrom has discovered a new deposit
OMV Petrom announced in July 2014 that it had identified a new oil
deposit in the area of Istria from the Black Sea and production could begin
in the next 3-4 years.
New oil deposit discovered in the Black Sea when it could start the
production
"The Black Sea is an important area for OMV Petrom, an area where
there is still potential for new discoveries.In the present, the production of
shallow area of the Black Sea represents about 18% of total hydrocarbons
production of the company in Romania.
We have a history of over 40 years in the exploration and
exploitation of hydrocarbons in the Black Sea shallow and we continue to
invest in developing the offshore segment, "said Gabriel Selischi, member
of the OMV Petrom, responsible for exploration and production.
Subsequently, in October, ExxonMobil and OMV Petrom announced
they began the explorations in the third perimeter of the block of the Black
Sea offshore Neptune.

Fodor Mihaela Alexandra

IE-anul II-grupa 8731

Turcia cauta petrol in vestul Marii Negre:

Investitie de 300 milioane de dolari
Compania de stat turca TPAO si gigantul
energetic Shell incep in ianuarie explorarile in partea de vest a
Marii Negre, iar investia va ajunge la aproximativ 300 de milioane
de dolari.
Anuntul a fost facut, marti, de ministrul Energiei de la Istanbul, Taner
Yildiz, in cadrul unui eveniment ce a marcat inceperea operatiunilor,
informeaza Daily Sabah.
"Vasul Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa a colectat date seismice, iar unele
au fost relevante. Insa aceasta ambarcatiune nu ne este de ajuns, asa ca
se mai construieste una la Tuzla (o suburbie a Istanbulului, unde se afla un
santier naval - n.red.), pe care o vom lansa la apa cel mai tarziu in martie",
a explicat Yildiz.
"Prioritatea noastra este sa imbunatatim cat mai mult posibil
utilizarea resurselor energetice nationale. Bulgaria si Romania au
descoperit resurse de petrol si gaze naturale in regiune, asa ca sunt
increzator in rezultatele parteneriatului dintre TPAO si Shell", a adaugat
acesta.
Turcia nu are rezerve de petrol dovedite, dar TPAO conduce
operatiuni de explorare impreuna cu companii private.
"5% din necesarul de titei al tarii si 2% din gazul natural provin din
resursele naturale nationale. Cu ajutorul acestui nou put, vom obtine
informatii importante si ne vom da seama daca exista hidrocarburi in
vestul Marii Negre. Aceste operatiuni de explorare sunt importante,
deoarece Turcia vrea sa isi creasca productia de resurse", a explicat seful
Shell Turcia, Ahmet Erdem.
In activitatile de explorare din vestul Marii Negre, cele doua companii
vor investi aproximativ 300 de milioane de dolari, iar acestea vor avea loc
la 100 de kilometri de Istanbul, la adancimi de peste 2.000 de metri,
arata Natual Gas Europe.

OMV Petrom a descoperit un nou zacamant

OMV Petrom a anuntat, in iulie 2014, ca a identificat un nou
zacamant de petrol in perimetrul Istriei din Marea Neagra, iar productia ar
putea incepe in urmatorii 3-4 ani.
Nou zacamant de petrol descoperit in Marea Neagra - cand ar putea
incepe productia

Fodor Mihaela Alexandra

IE-anul II-grupa 8731

"Marea Neagra este o zona foarte importanta pentru OMV Petrom, o zona
in care exista in continuare potential pentru noi descoperiri. In prezent,
productia din zona de mica adancime a Marii Negre reprezinta circa 18%
din productia totala de hidrocarburi a companiei in Romania.
Avem o istorie de peste 40 de ani in explorarea si exploatare a
hidrocarburilor din zona de mica adancime a Marii Negre si vom continua
sa investim in dezvoltarea segmentului offshore", a declarat Gabriel
Selischi, membru al directoratului OMV Petrom, responsabil de explorare si
productie.
Ulterior, in octombrie, ExxonMobil si OMV Petrom au anuntat ca au
inceput explorarile la al treilea perimetru din blocul offshore Neptun al
Marii Negre.