Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
VOI?
3 4
1
Companii - sector AUTO - din baza de date
Studiu de caz - Proiect - structura
Reuters productie 2014 Introducere studiu: scop, structura, instrumente folosite,
rezultate obtinute
Descrierea firmei si a sectorului de activitate (grafice, indicatori,
comentarii)
Analiza financiara a companiei selectate si comparatii cu
competitorii ultimii 10 ani :
Analiza echilibrului financiar pe baza de bilant,
Tesla Motors Analiza performantelor financiare pe baza contului de profit si
Tata Motors
Mazda Motor pierdere
Geely Automobile Holding
Analiza CF tablou finantare, tabloul CF, CF pt evaluarea
companiei
Analiza financiara a rentabilitatii; costul capitalului
7 8
Analiza financiara a riscului
2
Analiza fundamentala Analiza fundamentala
Analiza fundamentala vs. analiza tehnica Analiza fundamentala vs. analiza
tehnica
Analiza fundamentala utilizeaza informatii provenind Analiza tehnica utilizeaza informatii privind
din documentele contabile, urmarind determinarea evolutia istorica a pietei, presupunand ca
rentabilitatii si a riscului aferente companiei, dar si tendinta preturilor istorice ofera suficiente date
potentialul de dezvoltare in viitor, astfel estimandu-se pentru a determina evolutia viitoare a pretului; ca
valoarea corecta/intrinseca a actiunilor; se pune astfel instrumente utilizate grafice - CAND
accent pe cauzele si efectele asupra preturilor ale cumparam
politicilor adoptate de companie CE cumparam
Investitorii identifica trendul pretului care
Investitorii analizeaza factorii fundamentali care reflecta caracteristicile de rentabilitate si risc;
afecteaza riscul si rentabilitatea unui titlu financiar, se pune astfel accent pe cererea si oferta de
luand astfel decizia de a vinde sau cumpara titlul titluri, pe trendul pretului actiunilor.
financiar.
13 14
550
500
487.96
480.15
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
.12
Vol, QAAPL.O, Trade Price
10/2/2013, 63,949.00 Volume
.12
A M J J A S O ND J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J FM AM J J A S O N D J F M AM J J A S O N D J FM A M J J A S O
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
15 16
3
Analiza fundamentala
Determinarea valorii intrinseci a titlului, Analiza fundamentala
prin utilizarea informatiilor disponibile Valoarea unui titlu este
Decizia de investitie: determinata/fundamentata de/prin:
CUMPARA - Cadrul macroeconomic
daca valoarea intrinseca > valoarea de piata - Factori financiari
VINDE - Factori cantitativi / calitativi
Daca valoarea intrinseca < valoarea de piata
exemple!!!???
19 20
Analiza fundamentala
Analiza fundamentala
Valoarea unui titlu este determinata (1) Informatii utilizate istorice si
justificata prin intermediul factorilor previzionate la nivel agregat:
fundamentali: Indicatori macroeconomici (PIB, economii,
investitii, inflatie, dobanda, curs de
- Cadrul economic schimb, somaj, factori demografici)
- Sectorul/industria Indicatori economici (politica fiscala,
monetara, productivitatea, indici bursieri,
- Firma coruptie)
21 22
(2) Informatii utilizate sectorul sau industria: (3) Informatii utilizate compania:
Clasificarea industriei prin corelarea cu business Avantajul competitiv (cota de piata/cresterea
cycle (de crestere / ciclica / contraciclica) vanzarilor/stabilitatea vanzarilor)
Clasificarea industriei in functie de faza de Castigurile companiei
(costuri/vanzari/amortizare/salarii/beneficii)
maturitate (pionierat/crestere rapida/maturitate
si stabilitate/declin) Structura capitalului
Managementul
Alti factori: cresterea industriei/structura
costului si a profitabilitatii/dependenta de alte Eficienta operationala (utilizarea unor resurse
limitate)
sectoare/concurenta/politica guvernamentala
/piata fortei de munca/R&D Performanta financiara (analiza financiara)
23 24
4
Analiza fundamentala
Analiza fundamentala vs. analiza tehnica Analiza financiara
n momentul constituirii unei afaceri, indiferent de fel i
amploare, trebuie determinate:
mrimea i felul investiiei: pe termen lung termen scurt
Documentele contabile pot intimida ???
investitorii, dar, daca stim cum sa le sursele de finanare pe termen lung pentru realizarea
interpretam, reprezinta o adevarata mina
de aur pentru obtinerea de informatii investiiilor: autofinantare emisiune de actiuni credite
privind companiile. suplimentare ???
modalitatea de desfurare a activitii zilnice (ncasri i
Analiza fundamentala presupune utilizarea pli)
aspectelor financiare caracteristice Analiza financiar caut solutii la aceste probleme!
companiilor pentru a determina Firma:
performanta viitoare.
acionari de regul nu sunt implicai direct n decizii
manageri angajai pentru a reprezenta interesele
25 26
acionarilor
Management financiar-scop
Management financiar-
principal
scop principal
Stabiliti pentru compania voastra
Scopul principal al managementului
obiective in cadrul urmatorilor 10 ani:
financiar (care include si celelalte
scopuri, considerate
Obiective pe termen scurt < 1an intermediare) este
Obiective pe termen mediu intre 1,5 ani maximizarea/cresterea valorii
Obiective pe termen lung intre 5, 10 ani de piata a firmei
(maximizarea/cresterea cursului
Este influentat managementul financiar actiunilor)
de contextul macroeconomic????
29 30
5
Valoarea de piata vs. valoarea contabila Sector Competitors
Apllpe competition
The book value of equity is a poor surrogate for the market value equity, december 21, 2004 Scheme: TRBC - Technology/Technology Equipment/Computers, Phones & Household Electronics/Computer Ha rdware, Market Cap filter: Top 25, Region: , Report: Summary
1 - 25 of 25
Name RIC Last PE Est. PE EPS Ccy DPS Ccy Div. Yld (%) ROE (%) P/Book P/Sales Mcap (USD)
Apple Inc AAPL.O 487.96 c 12.19 12.39 40.04 USD 12.20 USD 2.50 42.84 3.75 2.83 443,310,196,120.00
value of equity ($ mil.) Ratio, market value Sector average (Mean) -- 141.36 76.66 2.16 USD 2.22 USD 2.45 -0.17 3.55 2.45 24,655,058,493.75
Company book market to book value Sector median -- 20.36 14.08 0.63 USD 0.95 USD 2.41 9.85 2.30 1.79 1,484,948,561.60
Apple Inc AAPL.O 487.96 c 12.19 12.39 40.04 USD 12.20 USD 2.50 42.84 3.75 2.83 443,310,196,120.00
Aetna Inc. 9081 22186 2.44 EMC Corp EMC 25.71 c 20.36 13.82 1.26 USD 0.40 USD 1.56 13.12 2.39 2.46 53,498,755,954.35
Affymeric Inc. 249 2576 10.35 Hewlett-Packard Co HPQ 21.31 c -- 6.00 -1.59 USD 0.58 USD 2.73 -41.43 1.83 0.34 40,954,064,900.97
Dell Inc DELL.O 13.84 c 18.16 14.65 0.76 USD 0.32 USD 2.31 24.21 2.28 0.43 24,335,830,779.84
Coca-Cola Co. 15935 101224 6.35 Western Digital Corp WDC.O 64.04 c 16.40 7.90 3.90 USD 1.00 USD 1.56 12.59 1.91 0.98 15,103,044,771.04
Dana Corp. 2435 2069 0.85 SanDisk Corp SNDK.O 60.07 c 20.53 12.65 2.93 USD 0.90 USD 1.50 5.83 1.99 2.86 14,440,202,551.16
3D Systems Corp DDD 55.83 c 124.61 53.17 0.45 USD -- -- -- 10.59 11.81 16.04 5,672,972,166.54
First Advantage Corp. 290 143 0.49 SYNNEX Corp SNX 62.05 c 15.18 15.13 4.09 USD -- -- -- 12.22 1.77 0.23 2,330,134,982.90
General Motors Corp. 27726 22639 0.82 Diebold Inc DBD 29.69 c -- 22.32 -1.71 USD 1.15 USD 3.87 10.09 2.94 0.78 2,326,005,807.68
Lexmark International Inc LXK 33.44 c 16.49 8.68 2.03 USD 1.20 USD 3.59 7.95 1.63 0.55 2,093,185,795.36
Google Inc. 2929 52925 18.07 Cardtronics Inc CATM.O 37.52 c 35.10 20.17 1.07 USD -- -- -- 33.65 11.43 2.16 1,684,940,881.12
Harley-Davidson Inc. 3219 17880 5.55 Electronics For Imaging Inc EFII.O 32.19 c 17.55 21.75 1.83 USD -- -- -- 13.70 2.30 2.29 1,494,141,662.70
Synaptics Inc SYNA.O 45.92 c 16.06 11.68 2.86 USD -- -- -- 21.54 2.85 2.24 1,484,948,561.60
Hewlett-Packard Co. 37726 59011 1.56 Fusion-io Inc FIO 13.52 c -- 1,352.00 -0.40 USD -- -- -- -8.04 2.76 3.13 1,354,095,681.12
ScanSource Inc SCSC.O 35.52 c 28.66 13.90 1.24 USD -- -- -- 5.14 1.43 0.35 997,057,979.52
Home Depot Inc. 24158 85445 3.54 QLogic Corp QLGC.O 10.985 c 19.68 14.08 0.56 USD -- -- -- 9.85 1.31 1.99 963,263,665.00
IBM 29747 146708 4.93 Cray Inc CRAY.O 23.3 c 1,807.60 38.83 0.01 USD -- -- -- 63.56 2.73 2.21 929,756,070.20
Violin Memory Inc VMEM.K 7.85 c -- -6.49 -8.02 USD -- -- -- -245.52 14.36 8.70 642,321,210.30
Intel Corp. 38579 145774 3.78 Super Micro Computer Inc SMCI.O 14.08 c 29.26 12.86 0.48 USD -- -- -- 5.98 1.61 0.52 601,252,678.40
Kraft Foods 29911 17141 0.57 Silicon Graphics International Corp SGI.O 16.29 c -- 15.22 -0.10 USD -- -- -- -2.34 4.29 0.73 558,319,925.07
Steel Excel Inc SXCL.PK 29.9 c 42.27 -- 0.71 USD -- -- -- 5.67 0.87 3.76 376,750,375.30
Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. 364 143 0.39 Quantum Corp QTM 1.38 c -- 23.00 -0.13 USD -- -- -- -- -- 0.58 341,667,738.84
Yahoo! Inc. 7101 43849 6.18 Mercury Systems Inc MRCY.O 10.06 c -- -39.45 -0.44 USD -- -- -- -3.99 1.02 1.60 334,234,093.90
Citadel EFT Inc CDFT.PK 10.5 c -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 282,606,492.00
31 Agilysys Inc AGYS.O 11.9 c 163.01 119.00 0.07 USD -- -- -- -1.14 2.34 1.13 32
266,711,498.90
Valoare
Valoare contabila valoare de piata
Valoarea.
Valoarea companiei depinde de activele detinute si
de anticiparile privind CF viitoare
Cum se poate cuantifica?
- calitatea bunurilor produse Cum poate fi creata?
- activele utilizate
Care sunt factorii care limiteaza
- brandul
- calitatea personalului si a managementului capacitatea managerilor de a genera
- conditiile de piata si economice valoare?
Oscar Wilde
Economist someone who knows the price of
everything and the value of nothing
33 34
Valoarea - intangibila
Grupuri de stakeholder-i
Actionari rentabilitate din dividende si castig de
capital
Stakeholder-i in conflict
Manager beneficii financiare, oportunitati in Manager-actionari
cariera, putere de decizie
Salariati post, cariera, remunerare Clienti-actionari
Creditori lichiditati, alte servicii bancare Angajati-actionari
Furnizori lichiditati, comenzi ferme
Clienti calitate la pret avantajos Creditori-actionari
Guvern sanatatea financiara a firmei influenteaza Guvern-angajati
economia; impozite si taxe
Comunitatea locala efecte ale activitatii firmei:
somaj, venituri fiscale locale, externalitati negative
35 36
6
Conflict actionari- Rentabilitatea ceruta de
management investitori depinde de:
Managerul gestioneaza zilnic firma Marimea investitiei (sacrificiul
Managerul are tendinta sa maximizeze beneficiile
personale; poate fi cu aversiune la riscurile care prezent)
ar pune in pericol pozitia in companie ar putea Rata inflatiei (castigul in termeni
refuza oportunitati de creere de valuare
Managerul are informatii detaliate despre firma reali)
Managerul poate fi concentrat pe obiective pe Rentabilitatea altor investitii (rata
termen scurt
de dobanda + prima de risc)
37 38
Teorii financiare
Valoare - profit Relaia de agent:
Contract ntre principal (contractor) i agent
(contractat), prin care agentul reprezint interesele
principalului acest contract exprim delegarea de
Profit termen scurt autoritate i transferul puterii de decizie.
Asimetrie de informaii agentul i principalul nu dein
Valoare exploatarea potentialului de aceleai informaii
crestere pe termen lung prin Selecie advers agentul deine o informaie
utilizarea oportunitatilor de piata privat nainte de ncheierea contractului; principalul
poate verifica comportamentul agentului, dar apar
costuri;
Hazard moral aciunea agentului este neverificabil
sau agentul primete informaii private dup
41
ncheierea contractului. 42
7
Teorii financiare
Exemplu de relaie de agent: manager acionari
Cost de agent
Teorii financiare
-- indirect pierdere de oportuniti (investiii
riscante dar profitabile) Relaia de agent apare i ntre acionari
-- direct faciliti suplimentare acordate
managerului creditori:
monitorizarea aciunilor agentului (plata unor acordarea de credite cu dobnzi determinate n
auditori externi pentru verificarea informaiilor
financiare) funcie de gradul de risc al fluxului de numerar
gradul de risc al activelor existente
Mecanisme de a determina manegerul s acioneze n gradul de risc al activelor ce vor fi
interesul acionarilor: achiziionate
riscul concedierii
riscul prelurii structura capitalului
stimulente manageriale structurate n corelaie cu previziunea modificrii structurii capitalului.
performanele (opiuni call, aciuni distribuite n
funcie de performane). 43 44
8
Principii de baza ale managementului financiar
investeste inteligent! (Pp.2)
Principiile managementului financiar
.Gestioneaza eficient activele! (Pp.1)
49 50
51 52
53 54
9
Principiile managementului financiar
Repartizeaza cat mai corect profiturile obtinute!
Principiile managementului financiar (Pp.4)
.Gaseste sursele de finantare adecvate!
(Pp.3)
Alege varianta de finanare care minimizeaz costul Ct din profiturile generate de ctre
capitalurilor atrase i acoper necesitile de ntreprindere ar trebui reinvestite?
finanare ale ntreprinderii n funcie de scadenele
acestora.
Ct din profiturile generate de ctre
ntreprindere ar trebui distribuite
acionarilor?
ndatorarea este avantajoas pentru ntreprindere
atta timp ct rentabilitatea activelor finanate Situatii extreme:
este mai mare dect costul creditelor contractate
100%-0%
(efect de levier pozitiv)
0%-100%
55 56
57 58
mprumutati
Creditori plus dobnda?
Management
59 60
financiar
10
Analiza financiara Recomandari
- reprezinta activitatea de diagnosticare a echilibrului PROIECT echipa, companie
financiar pe termen lung i scurt i a strii de http://johnmaxwellteam.ro
performan financiar a firmei
- are ca scop identificarea punctelor tari i slabe ale Lebada neagra Nassim Taleb (Black
managementului financiar pentru fundamentarea unei Swan)
noi strategii de meninere i dezvoltare O plimbare in parc..
- se fundamenteaza in functie de poziia analistului
financiar (intern sau extern), astfel ca obiectivele
diagnosticului financiar sunt orientate spre No pressure, no diamonds
evidenierea rentabilitii i a riscului: (Mary Case)
Actionarii analizeaza profitabilitatea, stabilitatea, cresterea si rata de
distribuire a dividendelor
Creditorii analizeaza gradul de indatorare si capacitatea de a rambursa
creditul Un semestru frumos!
61
11
octombrie 16
Bibliografie
Dragota, V. si colectivul Management financiar.
Analiza financiara - Diagnosticul financiar al companiei , Editura Economica,
partea2 2012 capitolele 1, 3, 4
interpretarea
documentelor contabile Stancu, Ion; Obreja Braoveanu, Laura; Stancu, Andrei
Tudor Finane corporative. Vol 1 Analiza i planificarea
BILANTUL financiar, Bucureti: Editura Economic, 2015 capitolele
1, 2
Prof.dr. Laura OBREJA
BRASOVEANU Suport de curs / seminar
ASE- Bucuresti
Master oct 2016
1 2
Principalele forme de organizare a afacerilor ntreprinderilor (Stancu 2015) Functiile analizei financiare:
Societatea comercial este termenul generic care desemneaz un proces de
concentrare, de adunare si de asociere de persoane i/sau de capitaluri, cu scopul
desfurrii unor activiti comerciale.
(1) Descoperirea si mobilizarea resurselor interne
(resurse umane, active fixe, circulante etc)
Diversele forme de organizare a afacerilor pot fi grupate n patru categorii, n
funcie de numrul de angajai, de cifra de afaceri sau de activele totale anuale
(Clasificarea societilor comerciale conform cu Recomandarea 361/2003/CE):
(2) Consolidarea autonomiei economic-financiare si
Numarul
cresterea eficientei economice
Categoria Cifra de Sau Active
intreprinderii mediu de afaceri totale
microntreprinderea;
salariati
(3) Diagnosticul si reglarea activitatii firmei
ntreprinderea mic;
ntreprinderea mijlocie; Micro < 10 = 2 milioane = 2 milioane (4) Participarea activa la actul decizional
ntreprinderea mare.
(planificare)
Mica < 50 = 10 milioane = 10 milioane
(5) Masurarea eficientei actului decizional (masuri-
Mijlocie < 250 = 50 milioane = 43 milioane realizari-efecte)
(6) Raportare (AGA, CA)
Mare = 250 > 50 milioane > 43 milioane 3 4
(7) altele?
7 8
Schema desfurrii procesului de analiz financiar Factorii care explic rezultatele economico-financiare
pot fi grupai:
a) Dup coninutul (natura) lor: tehnici / tehnologici / organizatorici / economici /
social-politici / demografici / psihologici / biologici / naturali
b) Dup caracterul lor n cadrul unei relaii cauzale: cantitativi, calitativi, de
structur
c) Dup modul cum acioneaz: cu aciune direct, cu aciune indirect
d) n funcie de efortul propriu al ntreprinderii: dependeni de efortul propriu /
independeni de efortul propriu
e) Dup gradul de sintetizare: simpli / compleci
f) Dup izvorul aciunii lor: interni (endogeni) / externi (exogeni)
g) Dup stadiul circuitului economic: specifici aprovizionrii / produciei i
vnzrii produciei.
h) Dup posibilitile de previziune: previzibili (ceri sau determinabili) /
imprevizibili (aleatori)
i) Dup intensitatea aciunii lor: dominani (cheie) / secundari
dou tipuri principale de analiz:
analiza structural (prin elemente)
analiza factorial (prin factori) 11 12
Analiza calitativa - stabilirea elementelor i relaiilor lor Analiza cantitativa - msoara contribuia factorilor i
structurale, a factorilor i cauzelor care explic fenomenul, a elementelor componente asupra modificrii fenomenului
relaiilor de condiionare dintre fiecare factor i fenomenul studiat
studiat, precum i dintre factorii care acioneaz
Principalele metode calitative care formeaz metodologia de Principalele metode ale analizei cantitative sunt:
diagnosticare a activitii economico-financiare a - metoda balanier
ntreprinderii:
- metode substituiilor n lan
- diviziunea / descompunerea rezultatelor
- metoda ratelor
- gruparea
- metoda regresiei
- comparaia
- metoda scorurilor
13 14
21 22
Analiza pe
baza bilantului
(Balance Sheet analysis)
23 24
27 28
Documentele contabile
sanatatea companiei
ASE- Bucuresti
Master / FABBV
2016 - 2017
Ratios - Profit/Value/Risk:
CPR/AE; Dat t lg/AE
Profitability/Return: Sales/Receivables, Revenue/Inventory,
Studii de caz Analiza pe baza ratelor Studii de caz Analiza pe baza ratelor
studiu de caz Holly Fashion studiu de caz Holly Fashion
EXHIBIT 3
FINANCIAL RATIOS FOR THE HOLLY FASHION COMPANY -- t - t+3
EXHIBIT 2
t t+1 t+2 t+3 Industry average t - t+3*
Balance Sheet of the HOLLY FASHIONS company -- t - t+3
t t+1 t+2 t+3
liquidity ratios
ASSETS current 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.6 2.6 1.7 1.3
Cash 40.4 51.9 38.6 10.6 quick 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.6
Receivables 153.2 158.9 175.1 224.8 leverage ratios
Inventory 117 121.1 193.4 191.9 debt% 41% 38% 35% 31% 41% 57% 71%
Other current assets 5.9 6.2 7.4 7.8
Current assets 316.5 338.1 414.5 435.1
times interest earned 8.0 8.5 11.6 15.7 7.4 3.9 1.3
Gross fixed 44.8 58.9 78.1 96.4 activity ratios
Accumulated depreciation 12 23.4 37 51.4 inventory turnover 8.4 8.6 6.4 6.8 8.1 6 3.5
Net fixed 32.8 35.5 41.1 45 fixed assets turnover 30.0 29.3 30.1 29.0 40 25 12
Total assets 349.3 373.6 455.6 480.1
total assets turnover 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.5 2.8 2
average collection period 56 55 51 62 41 50 68
LIABILITIES & NET WORTH
Accounts payable 53.8 54.7 86.2 84.2 day purchases outstanding (average
26payment25period)33** 31 18 25 32
Debt due 10 10 10 10 profitability ratios
Accruals 19.7 26 24.7 26.1 gross margin 24.0% 25.5% 24.9% 25.0% 28% 26% 24%
Current liabilities 83.5 90.7 120.9 120.3
net profit margin 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 4.20% 3.10% 1.20%
Long-term debt 60 50 40 30
return on equity 14.3% 11.6% 10.8% 10.7% 27.30% 19.50% 7.80%
Common stock 150 150 180 180
Retained earnings 55.8 82.8 114.6 149.8 return on total assets 8.5% 7.2% 7.0% 7.3% 11.80% 8.70% 3.40%
Total L&NW 349.3 373.5 455.5 480.1 operating margin *** 6.8% 6.0% 5.8% 5.9% 9.90% 7.20% 3.10%
Diagnostic Holly
Fashions REZOLVARE t t+1 t+2 t+3 average Industry average t - t+3 * q
liquidity ratios
current =current assets/current liabilities 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.6 2.6 1.7 1.3 q4
quick 2.4 liabilities
=(current assets-inventories)/current 2.4 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.6 q4
leverage ratios
debt% =(current liabilit ies+long term 41%
debt)/t otal 38% 35% 31% 36% 41% 57% 71% q4
inventory turnover =sales/inventory 8.4 8.6 6.4 6.8 7.5 8.1 6 3.5 q3
Vezi pdf cu studiul de caz fixed assets turnover =sales/net f ixed assets 30.0 29.3 30.1 29.0 29.6 40 25 12 q3
total assets turnover =sales/total assets 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.5 2.8 2 q2
average collection period =receivables*360/sales 56 55 51 62 56.0 41 50 68 q2
day purchases outstanding (average payment period)26 ** 25 33 31 28.9 18 25 32 q3
profitability ratios
gross margin =gross margin/sales 24.0% 25.5% 24.9% 25.0% 24.9% 28% 26% 24% q2
net profit margin =net income/sales 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 4.20% 3.10% 1.20% q2
return on equity =net income/equity 14.3% 11.6% 10.8% 10.7% 11.9% 27.30% 19.50% 7.80% q2
return on total assets =net income/tot al assets 8.5% 7.2% 7.0% 7.3% 7.5% 11.80% 8.70% 3.40% q2
operating margin *** =(EBIT +depreciation)/sales 6.8% 6.0% 5.8% 5.9% 6.1% 9.90% 7.20% 3.10% q2
Studii de caz
Asset s ($ Thousands)
APPLE peers competitors - economic sector -- technology Property/Plant/Equipment, T otal - Gross
Cas h and Short Term Investm ents Buildings - Gross
Cash & Equivalent s Land/Improvements - Gross
Short Term Invest ments Machinery/Equipment - Gross
APPLE peers competitors - economic sector -- technology APPLE balance sheet analysis --- construirea bilantului financiar
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Active pe rmane nte 928,000 995,000 1,216,000 2,696,000 3,391,000 6,165,000 15,946,000 33,505,000 71,383,000 118,411,000
Property/Plant/Equipment,
Imobilizari corporale
T otal - Net 669,000 707,000 817,000 1,281,000 1,832,000 2,455,000 2,954,000 4,768,000 7,777,000 15,452,000
Goodwill, Net; Intangibles, Imobilizari necorporale
Net 109,000 122,000 96,000 177,000 420,000 559,000 559,000 1,083,000 4,432,000 5,359,000
APPLE balance sheet analysis --- indicatori de echilibru financiar si rate APPLE balance sheet analysis
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FR 3,530,000 4,404,000 6,813,000 8,066,000 12,676,000 18,645,000 20,049,000 20,956,000 17,018,000 19,111,000
NFR (1,036,000) (1,060,000) (1,448,000) (2,044,000) (2,710,000) (3,466,000) (3,415,000) (4,664,000) (8,934,000) (10,018,000)
NWC 3,530,000 4,404,000 6,813,000 8,066,000 12,676,000 18,645,000 20,049,000 20,956,000 17,018,000 19,111,000
TN 4,566,000 5,464,000 8,261,000 10,110,000 15,386,000 22,111,000 23,464,000 25,620,000 25,952,000 29,129,000
CF 898,000 2,797,000 1,849,000 5,276,000 6,725,000 1,353,000 2,156,000 332,000 3,177,000
AE 4,458,000 5,399,000 8,029,000 10,762,000 16,067,000 24,810,000 35,995,000 54,461,000 88,401,000 137,522,000
NFR/FR ??relevant ? -29.35% -24.07% -21.25% -25.34% -21.38% -18.59% -17.03% -22.26% -52.50% -52.42%
lichidit at e gen =
current ratio 2.50 2.66 2.95 2.25 2.37 2.64 2.74 2.01 1.61 1.50
lichidit at e partiala =
quick rat io 2.47 2.62 2.91 2.21 2.33 2.60 2.70 1.96 1.58 1.48
lichidit at e imediat a 1.94 2.06 2.37 1.57 1.66 1.95 2.04 1.24 0.93 0.76
grad indat orare pe
termen scurt 34.59% 32.93% 30.28% 37.45% 36.61% 31.41% 24.22% 27.56% 24.04% 21.89%
grad indat orare pe
termen lung 3.45% 4.01% 5.22% 4.52% 6.06% 6.95% 9.17% 8.87% 10.13% 10.97%
APPLE balance sheet analysis --- structura bilantului financiar APPLE balance sheet analysis --- structura bilantului financiar
Bilant - structura
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Active pe rmane nte 13.62% 12.36% 10.56% 15.67% 13.38% 17.04% 33.57% 44.56% 61.34% 67.25%
Active cu re nte 86.38% 87.64% 89.44% 84.33% 86.62% 82.96% 66.43% 55.44% 38.66% 32.75%
stocuri 0.82% 1.25% 1.43% 1.57% 1.37% 1.41% 0.96% 1.40% 0.67% 0.45%
creante clienti 11.24% 9.61% 7.77% 7.28% 6.46% 6.70% 7.08% 7.33% 4.61% 6.21%
Active de trezorerie 67.00% 67.88% 71.73% 58.76% 60.70% 61.13% 49.40% 34.08% 22.30% 16.54%
Activ total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Pas ive pe rm anen te 65.41% 67.07% 69.72% 62.55% 63.39% 68.59% 75.78% 72.44% 75.96% 78.11%
Capital propriu 61.97% 63.06% 64.50% 58.03% 57.33% 61.64% 66.61% 63.57% 65.84% 67.14%
Datorii te rm en lung 3.45% 4.01% 5.22% 4.52% 6.06% 6.95% 9.17% 8.87% 10.13% 10.97%
Pas ive cure nte 34.59% 32.93% 30.28% 37.45% 36.61% 31.41% 24.22% 27.56% 24.04% 21.89%
Furnizori 16.93% 18.02% 15.45% 19.70% 19.61% 15.26% 11.79% 15.98% 12.57% 12.03%
Datorii totale 38.03% 36.94% 35.50% 41.97% 42.67% 38.36% 33.39% 36.43% 34.16% 32.86%
Pas ive totale 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
APPLE balance sheet analysis --- construirea bilantului financiar APPLE balance sheet analysis --- construirea bilantului financiar
Bilant - modificare
procentuala
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Active perman en te 1.98% 7.22% 22.21% 121.71% 25.78% 81.80% 158.65% 110.12% 113.05% 65.88%
Active cu ren te 9.26% 19.84% 46.00% 40.86% 51.33% 36.66% 5.16% 32.08% 7.94% 28.15%
stocuri 24.44% 80.36% 63.37% 63.64% 28.15% 47.11% -10.61% 130.99% -26.17% 1.93%
creante clienti 35.58% 1.04% 15.63% 39.89% 30.75% 47.95% 38.77% 63.94% -2.56% 103.58%
Act ive de t rezorerie 5.28% 19.67% 51.19% 22.38% 52.19% 43.71% 6.12% 9.19% 1.30% 12.24%
Activ total 8.21% 18.12% 43.06% 49.40% 47.32% 42.70% 31.32% 58.28% 54.78% 51.30%
Pasi ve perman en te -3.92% 21.11% 48.71% 34.04% 49.29% 54.42% 45.08% 51.30% 62.32% 55.57%
C api tal propriu 3.13% 20.20% 46.34% 34.41% 45.55% 53.43% 41.90% 51.05% 60.31% 54.29%
Datori i termen lu n g -56.88% 37.45% 86.07% 29.45% 97.30% 63.71% 73.30% 53.16% 76.70% 63.86%
Pasi ve cure nte 42.16% 12.47% 31.54% 84.77% 44.03% 22.42% 1.28% 80.10% 34.98% 37.80%
Furnizori 26.67% 25.74% 22.61% 90.56% 46.61% 11.07% 1.47% 114.52% 21.78% 44.72%
Datori i totale 17.66% 14.74% 37.46% 76.64% 49.77% 28.28% 14.32% 72.70% 45.14% 45.52%
Pasi ve total e 8.21% 18.12% 43.06% 49.40% 47.32% 42.70% 31.32% 58.28% 54.78% 51.30%
APPLE balance sheet analysis --- bilantului financiar durate de rotatie prin CA APPLE balance sheet analysis --- bilantului financiar durate de rotatie
Bilant - durata de
rotatie prin CA
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CA 6 ,2 0 7,0 0 0 8 ,2 79 ,0 0 0 13 ,9 3 1,0 0 0 2 4 ,0 0 6 ,0 0 0 3 2 ,4 79 ,0 0 0 3 7,4 9 1,0 0 0 4 2 ,9 0 5,0 0 0 6 5,2 2 5,0 0 0 10 8 ,2 4 9 ,0 0 0 156 ,50 8 ,0 0 0
Active permanen te 54 43 31 40 38 59 134 185 237 272
Imobilizari corporale 39 31 21 19 20 24 25 26 26 36
Active curente 341 307 266 218 243 288 265 230 150 133
stocuri 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 6 3 2
creante clienti 44 34 23 19 18 23 28 30 18 25
Active de trezorerie 265 238 213 152 171 212 197 141 86 67
Activ total 395 350 298 258 281 347 399 415 387 405
Pasive pe rmane nte 259 235 207 161 178 238 302 301 294 316
Capital propriu 245 221 192 150 161 214 265 264 255 272
Datorii te rme n lung 14 14 16 12 17 24 37 37 39 44
Pasive cure nte 137 115 90 97 103 109 97 114 93 89
Furnizori 67 63 46 51 55 53 47 66 49 49
Datorii totale 150 129 106 108 120 133 133 151 132 133
Pasive totale 395 350 298 258 281 347 399 415 387 405
Current Ratio 3.64 2.69 2.78 3.17 2.73 2.16 2.56 2.34 2.35 2.5
Quick Ratio 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Assets/Equity 1.47 1.7 1.7 1.67 1.77 2.07 1.85 2.06 1.98 1.93
Apple (median) 2.47 2.62 2.91 2.21 2.33 2.60 2.70 1.96 1.58 1.48
Debt/Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0.31 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08
APPLE(quart ile) 2.47 2.62 2.91 2.21 2.33 2.6 2.7 1.96 1.58 1.48
% LT Debt to Total Capital 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
HPQ - Hewlet t-Packard Co 1.37 1.25 1.16 1.13 1.00 0.83 1.08 0.97 0.86 0.95
DELL.O - Dell Inc 0.96 0.95 1.16 1.06 1.08 1.01 1.30 1.22 1.42 1.27
APPLE 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 CSCO.OQ - Cisco Syst ems Inc 1.51 1.51 2.18 2.15 2.26 2.49 3.16 2.60 3.18 3.40
Quick Ratio 1.13 1.74 1.48 1.92 1.64 2.38 2.75 2.79 3.38 3.22 MSI.N - Mot orola Solutions 1.68 1.75 2.03 1.80 1.55 1.38 1.81 1.91 2.08 1.94
Current Ratio 1.73 2.3 2.25 2.25 1.88 2.43 2.77 2.81 3.39 3.25 Inc
INT C.OQ - Int el Corp 2.96 2.68 1.96 1.64 2.39 2.06 2.40 2.99 1.81 2.06
Assets/Equity 2.55 2.22 2.15 2.61 4.03 2.87 1.75 1.69 1.54 1.54
NOK1V.HE - Nokia Oyj 2.28 2.28 1.79 1.68 1.39 1.08 1.43 1.40 1.33 1.33
Debt/Equity 0.41 0.25 0.26 0.55 0.93 0.64 0.1 0.07 0.08 0.08
% LT Debt to Total Capital 0.20% 10.20% 8.30% 29.70% 43.70% 36.70% 8.80% 6.80% 7.50% 7.20% GOOG.OQ - Google Inc - - - - - - - - 5.92 4.18
APPLE 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 5 5
average 1.89 1.86 1.88 1.67 1.71 1.64 1.98 1.86 2.27 2.08
APPLE 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
median 1.68 1.75 1.96 1.68 1.55 1.38 1.81 1.91 1.70 1.71
Quick Ratio 3.22 2.47 2.62 2.91 2.21 2.33 2.6 2.7 1.96 1.58 1.48
3.25 2.5 2.66 2.95 2.25 2.37 2.64 2.74 2.01 1.61 1.5
quartile 1.44, 1.38, 1.48, 1.39, 1.24, 1.05, 1.37, 1.31, 1.4, 1.32,
Current Ratio
Assets/Equity 1.54 1.61 1.59 1.55 1.72 1.74 1.62 1.5 1.57 1.52 1.49 1.68, 1.75, 1.96, 1.68, 1.55, 1.38, 1.81, 1.91, 1.7, 1.71,
Debt/Equity 0.08 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.38 2.45 2.11 1.98 2.3 2.28 2.55 2.28 2.36 2.4
% LT Debt to Total Capital 7.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% q q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q3 q2 q2
Debt/Equity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Apple
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Apple 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APPLE quartile 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
APPLE(quartile) 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Co
HPQ - Hewlet t-Packard Co 0.20 0.19 0.14 0.14 0.21 0.46 0.39 0.55 0.79 1.27 0.14 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.25 0.24 0.32 0.43
DELL.O - Dell Inc 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.47 0.72 0.77 1.04 DELL.O - Dell Inc
0.09 0.07 0.07 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.30 0.35 0.37 0.35
CSCO.OQ - Cisco Systems Inc
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.20 0.20 0.27 0.35 0.36 0.32 CSCO.OQ - Cisco Systems Inc
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.21 0.21 0.25 0.24
MSI.N - Motorola Solutions
MSI.N - Mot orola Solutions
Inc 0.63 0.40 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.44 0.40 0.25 0.29 0.57
Inc 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.20 0.30 0.24 0.15 0.17 0.36
INT C.OQ - Intel Corp 0.03 0.02 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.16 0.26
INT C.OQ - Int el Corp
NOK1V.HE - Nokia Oyj 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.31 0.40 0.37 0.45 0.70 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.13 0.20
GOOG.OQ - Google Inc 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.08 NOK1V.HE - Nokia Oyj
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.34
APPLE (rank) 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
GOOG.OQ - Google Inc
average 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.12 0.12 0.20 0.25 0.29 0.36 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.04
median 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.18 0.33 0.30 0.33 0.45 APPLE (rank) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2
0.13, 0.11, 0.1, 0.19, 0.2, 0.34, 0.4, 0.33, 0.42, 0.53, 0.79, average 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.16 0.15 0.19 0.25
quartile 0.05, 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, 0.12, 0.18, 0.3, 0.33, 0.45,
median 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.22 0.18 0.19 0.29
0.03 0 0 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.14 0.22
0.11, 0.08, 0.07, 0.13, 0.12, 0.14, 0.24, 0.21, 0.27, 0.35,
q q2 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4
quartile 0.01, 0.01, 0.03, 0.05, 0.08, 0.06, 0.22, 0.18, 0.19, 0.29,
0 0 0 0 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.11 0.16
q q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4
% LT Debt to Total Capital 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Peers
Quick Ratio
2003
2.47
2004
2.62
2005
2.91
2006
2.21
2007
2.33
2008
2.6
2009
2.7
2010
1.96
2011
1.58
2012
1.48 in continuare!
Current Ratio 2.5 2.66 2.95 2.25 2.37 2.64 2.74 2.01 1.61 1.5
Assets/Equity 1.61 1.59 1.55 1.72 1.74 1.62 1.5 1.57 1.52 1.49
Debt/Equity 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% LT Debt to Total Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
q1 q2 q3 q4
worst bad good gre at
Analiza financiara
partea3
interpretarea
documentelor contabile
Contul de profit si
pierdere
Prof.dr. Laura OBREJA
ASE- Bucuresti BRASOVEANU
Master 2015-2016
Analiza performantelor financiare
cont profit si pierdere
(Income statement analysis)
Contul de profit si
pierdere
indicatori valorici
analiza dinamicii -- evolutia indicatorilor valorici
indici, modificari absolute si relative
analiza structurii -- pondere in total venituri/cheltuieli
raport static i dinamic dintre indicatorii valorici
venituri / cheltuieli totale, marginale, medii, unitare
Cont profit pierdere -
interpretare
RON exprimate in ponderi in
CA 4275 75.29%
venituri de exploatare 5592 98.49% 130.81%
cheltuieli de exploatare 5030 98.56% 117.66%
rezultatul exploatarii 562 97.86% 13.15%
venituri financiare 85.7 1.51% 2.00%
cheltuieli financiare 73.4 1.44% 1.72%
rezultat financiar 12.3 2.14% 0.29%
total venituri 5677.7 132.81%
total cheltuieli 5103.4 119.38%
rezultat brut 574.3 13.43%
rezultat net 482.4 11.28%
Cont profit pierdere - interpretare
= marja / CA
Rgross margin gross margin
RPN = ROS net profit margin
REBITDA EBITDA margin
REBIT EBIT margin
RNOPAT NOPAT margin
alte rate???
Rate de marja factori determinanti
Rmarja = marja / CA
= (CA cheltuieli) / CA
Factori determinanti?
Strategii de imbunatatire?
Top 20/500 FORBES rate de marja sursa datelor Thomson Reuters
Sector Gross Margin EBITDA Margin, %,
EBIT
FY Margin, %, FY
2015 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000
walmart Consumer Cyclicals 24.83 22.27 7.48 7.48 5.59 6.06
sinopec group Industrials 13.53 na 9.31 na 7.95 na
royal dutch shell Energy 15.93 na 8.87 na 2.18 na
exxon mobil Energy 27.45 34.59 11.92 14.52 4.96 11.00
volkswagen Consumer Cyclicals 16.55 14.43 21.74 10.74 11.62 4.84
toyota motor Consumer Cyclicals 23.20 23.04 15.27 11.96 10.10 6.02
apple Technology 40.06 27.13 34.97 7.69 30.48 6.64
bp Energy 8.99 24.13 8.60 23.26 1.77 18.49
berkshire hathaway Financials 25.51 25.89 21.93 23.36 18.24 18.45
mckesson Healthcare 6.37 6.06 2.43 0.93 1.87 0.32
Cyclical Consumer
samsung electronics
Goods & Services 38.46 38.11 23.60 27.79 13.16 20.82
glencore Energy 2.06 na 4.70 na 1.28 na
industrial&commercial
Financials
bank of china na na 62.09 na 59.29 na
daimler Consumer Cyclicals 21.30 17.25 12.31 11.32 8.70 2.66
unitedhealth group Healthcare na na 8.09 6.85 7.01 5.68
cvs health Consumer Non-Cyclicals 17.31 26.69 7.54 8.06 6.17 6.58
exor group Consumer Cyclicals 13.17 31.34 8.39 6.75 3.28 1.70
general motors Consumer Cyclicals 12.01 na 8.89 na 3.63 na
Top 20/500 FORBES rate de marja sursa datelor Thomson Reuters
Operating Margin, (%) Pretax Margin, (%) Effective Tax Rate, (%) Net Profit Margin, (%)
samsung electronics
12.08 20.78 12.94 19.76 26.58 28.01 9.32 13.79
glencore -4.70 na -4.70 na na na -2.91 na
industrial&commercial
bank of china na na 41.16 na 23.54 na 31.41 na
daimler 8.52 2.66 8.53 2.76 31.65 44.66 5.64 1.52
unitedhealth group na na 6.51 5.47 42.64 36.28 3.70 3.48
cvs health 6.17 6.58 5.62 6.19 39.30 40.00 3.41 3.64
exor group 2.82 2.43 0.77 2.65 67.46 41.93 0.16 0.33
general motors 3.51 na 5.07 na -24.58 na 6.36 na
Walmart rate de marja sursa datelor Thomson Reuters
Walmart rate de marja sursa datelor Thomson Reuters
Solduri intermediare de gestiune
varianta anglosaxona: exemplu - FIRMA
Rate de rentabilitate
Exemplu: restrictii privind ROE, ROA PN*
PN PN*
CA CVde exlpoatare CFde exlpoatare Dobanzi ( 1 ) PN*
CA v CA CFde exlpoatare Dobanzi PN * /( 1 )
PN * /( 1 ) CFde exlpoatare Dobanzi 28
CAPR _ restrictii
1 v
CA medie pe unitatea de produs sau
de prestaie
CA medie pe unitatea de produs sau
prestaie
=cifra de afaceri pe tipuri de produse sau
activiti / volumul fizic al produciei
vndute pe tipuri de produse sau activiti
= CAi / qi
echivaleaz cu preul mediu de vnzare pe
unitatea de produs, sau tariful mediu pe
unitatea de prestaie
CA marginal
= DCAi / Dqi 29
Grad utilizare capacitate productie;
grad valorificare productie
30
Analiza dinamicii si structurii CA
CA preuri comparabile
la nivel de produs q1 p0
la nivel de ntreprindere qi1 pi0
CA poate fi analizat structural n funcie
de diverse criterii de grupare a
vnzrilor, cum sunt:
pe produse
clieni,
piee de desfacere,
faze ale ciclului de via a produselor
31
Analiza dinamicii si structurii CA
Ponderile componentelor cifrei de afaceri
= gi = CAi / CAtotala
Coeficientul de concentrare (Gini-Struck)
Metoda ABC
gestiunea unei clientele eterogene a condus la urmtoarea
distribuie optimal:
zona A: 10% din clieni contribuie cu 60% din CA;
zona B: 40% din clieni contribuie cu 30% din CA;
zona C: 50% din clieni contribuie cu 10% din CA.
33
Metoda ABC
34
Analiza factorial a cifrei de afaceri
model (1) : CA = q p
CA
q1 p1 q2 p2 q3 p3 qn pn
DCA = CA1-CA0
DN : N1Wmc0gval0-N0Wmc0gval0
DWmc : N1Wmc1gval0-N1Wmc0gval0
Dgval :N1Wmc1gval1-N1Wmc1gval0
Analiza factorial a cifrei de afaceri model (3)
CA
DCA = CA1-CA0
DN : N1Wmc0-N0Wmc0
DWmc : N1Wmc1-N1Wmc0, din care
Dginz : N1ginz1strimo0Wmfp0-N1ginz0strimo0Wmfp0
37
Dstrimo : N1ginz1strimo1Wmfp0-N1ginz1strimo0Wmfp 0
DWmfp : N1ginz1strimo1Wmfp1-N1ginz1strimo1Wmfp0
Analiza factorial a cifrei de afaceri
model (4)
CA
vanzari produse
de marfuri vandute
40
Valoarea adaugata indicatori moderni
Valoarea economica adaugata
(EVA - economic value added)
Masoara eficienta manageriala intr-un an
42
Model de analiza factoriala a VA
model (1)
VA
VA / Nr.angajati
DVA = VA1-VA0
DN : N1Wmc_VA0-N0Wmc_VA0
Dproductivitate : N1Wmc_VA1-N1Wmc_VA0
impact N / impact VA ??
Model de analiza factoriala a VA
model (2)
VA
DVA = VA1-VA0
DN : N1Wmc_PE0va0-N0Wmc_PE0va0
Dproductivitate : N1Wmc_PE1va0-N1Wmc_PE0va0
DWhmc_PE: N1Whmc_PE1t0va0-N1Whmc_PE0t0va0
Dt: N1Whmc_PE1t1va0-N1Whmc_PE1t0va0
Dva : N1Wmc_PE1va1-N1Wmc_PE1va0
Analiza factoriala a EBT
= = = 1 =
/ = /
Factori determinanti:
Venituri totale (V)
REBT/V
structura veniturilor totale pe categorii de activiti
(gi)
REBTi/Vi
45
Analiza factoriala a RE model (1)
= =
= / =
/
Factori determinanti:
Venituri de exploatare (Vexpl)
RRE/Vexpl
structura veniturilor de exploatare pe categorii de
activiti (gi)
RREi/Vexpli
46
Analiza factoriala a RE model (2)
=
Factori determinanti:
N, mijloace fixe/N, mijloace fixe productive/mijloace fixe,
productia exercitiului/mijloace fixe productive, venituri
dexploatare/productia exercitiului, rezultat exploatare/venituri
exploatare (structura pe categorii de activitati, Rei/Vexpli)
47
Analiza factoriala a RE model (3)
=
Factori determinanti:
Active exploatare
venituri de exploatare/active de exploatare
rezultat exploatare/venituri exploatare (structura pe categorii de
activitati, Rei/Vexpli)
48
Analiza cheltuielilor la 1 leu venituri totale
= =
=
=
= =
=
=
= 1
Rata de eficienta a cheltuielilor totale analiza factoriala
Eficienta cheltuielilor
V
Ch = (Ch/V)
eficienta cheltuielilor
structura din activitatea i
veniturilor gi=Vi/V rchi = (Chi/Vi)
DRch = Rch1-Rch0
51
Analiza cheltuielilor de exploatare la 1 leu
venituri de exploatare
. =
=
=
.
= .
= =
. = =
structura
veniturilor de eficienta cheltuielilor de
exploatare exploatare din activitatea i
VEi
gi=Vexpli/Vexpl Ch.expl
= = =
= =
= = 1
Cheltuieli la 1 leu CA analiza factoriala model (1)
CA
Ch
DChCA = ChCA1-ChCA0
Impact modificare structura productie:
Impact modificare pret:
Impact modificare cost unitar:
-
Cheltuieli la 1 leu CA analiza factoriala model (2)
CA
Ch
structura productiei
CA
vandute pe produse gi ch
pret mediu de
vanzare p cost unitar c
DChCA = ChCA1-ChCA0
57
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1 leu VE
analiza factoriala model (1)
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1 leu venituri din exploatare
= =
Factori de influenta:
venituri de exploatare
timp total T
productivitate orara wh_VE = venituri de exploatare / T
amortizare
mijloace fixe
cota de amortizare = amortizare / mijloace fixe,
58
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1 leu VE
analiza factoriala model (2)
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1 leu venituri din exploatare
=
Factori de influenta:
eficiena utilizrii mijloacelor fixe (mijloace
fixe/venituri de exploatare)
cota de amortizare = amortizare / mijloace fixe
59
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1/1000 leu/lei CA
model (3)
= =
Factori de influenta:
cifra de afaceri
cantitate
pret
amortizare
mijloace fixe
cota de amortizare = amortizare / mijloace fixe,
60
Analiza cheltuielilor cu personalul
= cheltuielile cu remuneraia personalului (cunoscute sub denumirea de
cheltuieli cu salariile) i cheltuielile privind asigurrile i protecia social.
a) n funcie de elementele componente, distingem:
- salarii tarifare (negociate);
- sporuri acordate n funcie de condiiile concrete de munc (condiii grele de
munc, condiii nocive de munc, lucru la nlime, penibilitate, lucru n timpul
nopii, ore lucrate suplimentar peste programul normal de munc, exercitarea
unei funcii suplimentare, vechimea n munc etc.);
- premii;
- cheltuieli privind asigurrile i protecia social.
b) n funcie de cine suport cheltuielile cu personalul:
- angajator (salariile nete, contribuia la asigurrile sociale, ajutorul de omaj,
fondul de sntate);
- angajat (impozitul pe salariu, ajutorul de omaj, fondul de sntate, pensia
suplimentar);
61
Analiza cheltuielilor cu personalul
c) n raport cu categoria de personal: conducere, tehnic, economic i de alt
specialitate, administrativ i de deservire, muncitori etc.
d) Dup formele de salarizare practicate, n scopul cunoaterii eficienei
acestora i al utilizrii unor forme adecvate de salarizare legate direct de
rezultatele activitii desfurate.
e) n raport cu modul de includere n costuri, este necesar localizarea
rezervelor existente n vederea creterii eficienei cheltuielilor cu personalul.
62
Analiza factoriala a cheltuielilor cu personalul
model (1)
=
=
Factori de influenta:
numar angajati (N)
productivitatea muncii (V exploatare / N)
timp de munca pe salariat
productivitate orara a muncii (V exploatare / T)
salarii la 1 leu venit de exploatare (salarii / V exploatare)
structura veniturilor din exploatare pe produse, lucrri, servicii (gi)
cheltuieli cu salariile la 1 leu producie pe produse, lucrri, servicii
(sali)
63
Analiza factoriala a cheltuielilor cu personalul
model (2)
Factori de influenta:
numar angajati (N)
timp de munca pe salariat (t=T/N)
salariu mediu orar (salarii / T)
64
Analiza eficienei cheltuielilor cu personalul
a) Cheltuieli cu personalul la 1 leu venituri din exploatare
= =
Factori: N/VE, Sal/N
65
Analiza cheltuielilor cu dobnzile
cheltuielilor financiare i, de regul, nu se includ n costul produciei. Ele reprezint
costuri ale capitalului mprumutat, iar eficiena lor prezint importan n analiza
economic.
a) Dob la 1 leu CA
= =
b) Dob la 1 leu CA
= Factori: ???
c) Dob la 1 leu CA
= Factori: ???
66
Analiza financiara
Seminar 2
Contul de profit si
pierdere
67
68
69
Solduri intermediare de gestiune
marja comerciala
productia exercitiului
valoarea adaugata
EBE
gross margin
Rezultatul exploatarii EBITDA
Rezultat curent EBIT
Rezultat brut EBT
Rezultat net net profit
CAF CAF
70
NOPAT
Analiza financiara pe contului de
profit si pierdere
71
Studii de caz
Analiza cont de Analiza cont de
profit si pierdere profit si
Hewlett- pierdere - Apple
Packard
Analiza cont de
profit si pierdere
HEATING S.A.
72
HP
000 $ 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
Sales 114,175 117,994 103,928 91,330 86,325
Other Revenue, Total 377 370 358 328 371
Total Revenue 114,552 118,364 104,286 91,658 86,696
Cost of Revenue, Total 87,524 89,699 78,887 69,427 66,440
Gross Profit 26,651 28,295 25,041 21,903 19,885
Selling/General/Administrative Expenses, Total 11,613 13,326 12,226 11,266 11,184
Research & Development 2,819 3,543 3,611 3,591 3,490
Depreciation/Amortization 1,571 967 783 604 622
Unusual Expense (Income) 889 356 60 210 1,593
Operating Income 10,136 10,473 8,719 6,560 3,367
Financial Income (Expense), Net Non-Operating excluding
interest -210 468 975 964 528
Interest expense 511 468 517 333 352
Income Before Tax 9,415 10,473 9,177 7,191 3,543
Income Tax - Total 1,755 2,144 1,913 993 1,145
Income After Tax 7,660 8,329 7,264 6,198 2,398
EBT 9,415 10,473 9,177 7,191 3,543
EBIT 9,926 10,941 9,694 7,524 3,895
EBITDA 11,497 11,908 10,477 8,128 4,517
73
HP mii $
140000 14,000
100000 10,000
80000 8,000
60000 6,000
EBITDA (dr)
20000 2,000
0 0
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 74
HP
Growth rates 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 average industry S&P500
sales -3.2% 13.5% 13.8% 5.8% - 7.5% 2.78 8.97
net income -8.0% 14.7% 17.2% 158.5% - 45.6% 13.31 8.23
Margins % 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 average industry S&P500
Gross margin 23.3% 24.0% 24.1% 24.0% 23.0% 23.7% 37.1 38.7
pre-tax margin 8.2% 8.9% 8.8% 7.9% 4.1% 7.6% 13.1 15.9
net profit margin 6.7% 7.1% 7.0% 6.8% 2.8% 6.1% 9.5 11.3
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 average industry S&P500
EBIT/Dob 19.4 23.4 18.8 22.6 11.1 19.0 35.6 29.7
75
HP
Growth rates 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 average industry S&P500
sales -3.2% 13.5% 13.8% 5.8% - 7.5% 2.78 8.97
net income -8.0% 14.7% 17.2% 158.5% - 45.6% 13.31 8.23
Margins % average industry S&P500
Gross margin 23.3% 24.0% 24.1% 24.0% 23.0% 23.7% 37.1 38.7
pre-tax margin 8.2% 8.9% 8.8% 7.9% 4.1% 7.6% 13.1 15.9
net profit margin 6.7% 7.1% 7.0% 6.8% 2.8% 6.1% 9.5 11.3
average industry S&P500
EBIT/Dob 19.4 23.4 18.8 22.6 11.1 19.0 35.6 29.7
76
Analiza cont de profit si pierdere
HEATING S.A.
Analiza cont de profit si pierdere
HEATING S.A.
Analiza cont de profit si pierdere
HEATING S.A.
Exemple - comentarii
80
Dinamica indicatorilor valorici - Exemple
INDICI (DINAMICA)
2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014 2016p/2015 2016r/2015 2016r/2016p
venituri din vanzari de marfuri 85.00 94.12 115.00 103.26 105.43 102.11
cheltuieli aferente marfurilor vandute
84.54 95.12 114.10 104.49 105.62 101.08
productia vanduta 107.69 110.71 108.39 102.38 105.36 102.91
productia stocata 120.00 91.67 122.73 96.30 92.59 96.15
productia imobilizata 114.58 89.09 107.14 114.29 104.76 91.67
consumuri externe 107.14 118.10 108.87 108.15 109.63 101.37
81
Dinamica indicatorilor valorici - Exemple
venituri din vanzari de marfuri -15.00% -5.88% 15.00% 3.26% 5.43% 2.11%
cheltuieli aferente marfurilor vandute
-15.46% -4.88% 14.10% 4.49% 5.62% 1.08%
productia vanduta 7.69% 10.71% 8.39% 2.38% 5.36% 2.91%
productia stocata 20.00% -8.33% 22.73% -3.70% -7.41% -3.85%
productia imobilizata 14.58% -10.91% 7.14% 14.29% 4.76% -8.33%
consumuri externe 7.14% 18.10% 8.87% 8.15% 9.63% 1.37%
82
Dinamica indicatorilor valorici - Exemple
MODIFICARI absolute(DINAMICA)
2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014 2016p/2015 2016r/2015 2016r/2016p
venituri din vanzari de marfuri -1,500 -500 1,200 300 500 200
cheltuieli aferente
marfurilor vandute -1,500 -400 1,100 400 500 100
productia vanduta 10,000 15,000 13,000 4,000 9,000 5,000
productia stocata 400 -200 500 -100 -200 -100
productia imobilizata 140 -120 70 150 50 -100
consumuri externe 7,000 19,000 11,000 11,000 13,000 2,000
Interpretare? 83
Factori de impact? metoda balantiera
Raport static dintre indicatorii valorici -
Exemple
RAPORT STATIC
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
programat realizat
venituri din vanzari de marfuri
/cifra de afaceri 7.14% 5.72% 4.91% 5.19% 5.23% 5.20%
productia vanduta
/cifra de afaceri 92.86% 94.28% 95.09% 94.81% 94.77% 94.80%
productia vanduta
/productia exercitiului 97.77% 97.56% 97.99% 97.82% 97.84% 98.01%
productia stocata
/productia exercitiului 1.50% 1.67% 1.39% 1.57% 1.48% 1.38%
productia imobilizata
/productia exercitiului 0.72% 0.77% 0.62% 0.61% 0.68% 0.61%
valoarea adaugata
/productia exercitiului 26.52% 27.04% 21.73% 21.57% 17.06% 18.22%
marja comerciala
/ch.marfurilor vandute 3.09% 3.66% 2.56% 3.37% 2.15% 3.19%
valoarea adaugata 84
/cifra de afaceri 25.19% 26.13% 21.09% 20.91% 16.53% 17.62%
Raport dinamic dintre indicatorii valorici -
Exemple
2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014 2016p/2015 2016r/2015 2016r/2016p
88
CA de realizat n cazul unor
restricii date - exemplu
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
programat realizat
restrictii de dividend / reinvestire
dividende / profit net 30% 45% 20% 70% 10% 10%
dividend pe actiune 3 3.5 4 6 2 2
numar de actiuni 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
capital social 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
CPR 25,200 31,420 35,921 41,665 46,250 46,250
dividende 3,000 3,500 4,000 6,000 2,000 2,000
profit net PN*(dividende) 10,000 7,778 20,000 8,571 20,000 20,000
CA_PN* dividende 119,728 130,185 185,365 149,691 219,170 231,365
pozitie fata de CA_PN*dividende 17% 14% -12% 18% -17% -19%
ROE 10% 12% 8% 12% 15% 15%
profit net PN*(ROE) 2,520 3,770 2,874 5,000 6,937 6,937
CA_PN* ROE 94,286 115,277 117,403 135,975 174,740 179,530
pozitie fata de CA_PN*ROE 38% 26% 25% 28% 3% 3%
89
CA medie pe unitatea de produs
sau de prestaie exemplu:
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
programat realizat
CA medie pe unitatea de produs sau de prestaie
CA produs 1 20,000 22,000 25,000 30,000 31,000 33,000
CA produs 2 100,000 97,000 98,000 96,000 92,000 70,000
CA produs 3 13,000 20,000 30,000 42,000 48,000 52,000
CA produs 4 7,000 9,500 10,000 9,200 10,500 31,700
CA totala 140,000 148,500 163,000 177,200 181,500 186,700
volum fizic produs 1 1,000 1,050 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500
volum fizic produs 2 3,500 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,700 4,000
volum fizic produs 3 400 600 850 1,040 1,200 1,300
volum fizic produs 4 200 300 305 320 350 1,000
CA medie produs 1 (p1) 20.00 20.95 20.83 23.08 22.14 22.00
CA medie produs 2 (p2) 28.57 29.39 28.82 27.43 24.86 17.50
CA medie produs 3 (p3) 32.50 33.33 35.29 40.38 40.00 40.00
CA medie produs 4 (p4) 35.00 31.67 32.79 28.75 30.00 31.70
90
CA marginal
= DCAi / Dqi
91
Analiza dinamicii si structurii CA -
exemplu
92
Analiza dinamicii si structurii CA -
exemplu
93
Analiza dinamicii si structurii CA
alt exemplu
STRUCTURA CA
Ponderile componentelor cifrei de afaceri
produs 1 25.00% 20.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 0.00%
produs 2 25.00% 20.00% 40.00% 30.00% 10.00% 0.00%
produs 3 25.00% 20.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 0.00%
produs 4 25.00% 40.00% 40.00% 50.00% 70.00% 100.00%
Coeficientul de concentrare
(Gini-Struck) 0.00 0.20 0.35 0.38 0.60 1.00
Coeficientul
HERFINDHAL (H) 0.25 0.28 0.34 0.36 0.52 1.00
94
Analiza factorial a cifrei de afaceri
model (1) : CA = q p
CA
q1 p1 q2 p2 q3 p3 qn pn
2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016
impact q1 1,000 3,143 2,083 4,615 50% 105% 42% 154% 12% 22% 15% 49%
impact p1 1,000 -143 2,917 -1,615 50% -5% 58% -54% 12% -1% 21% -17%
DCA1 2,000 3,000 5,000 3,000 100% 100% 100% 100% 24% 21% 35% 32%
impact q2 -5,714 2,939 2,882 13,714 190% 294% -144% -53% -67% 20% 20% 144%
impact p2 2,714 -1,939 -4,882 -39,714 -90% -194% 244% 153% 32% -13% -34% -418%
DCA2 -3,000 1,000 -2,000 -26,000 100% 100% 100% 100% -35% 7% -14% -274%
impact q3 6,500 8,333 6,706 10,500 93% 83% 56% 105% 76% 57% 47% 111%
impact p3 500 1,667 5,294 -500 7% 17% 44% -5% 6% 11% 37% -5%
DCA3 7,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 100% 100% 100% 100% 82% 69% 85% 105%
impact q4 3,500 158 492 19,550 140% 32% -61% 87% 41% 1% 3% 206%
impact p4 -1,000 342 -1,292 2,950 -40% 68% 161% 13% -12% 2% -9% 31%
DCA4 2,500 500 -800 22,500 100% 100% 100% 100% 29% 3% -6% 237%
97
Analiza factorial a cifrei de afaceri
model (2)
CA
DCA = CA1-CA0
DN : N1Wmc0gval0-N0Wmc0gval0
DWmc : N1Wmc1gval0-N1Wmc0gval0
Dgval :N1Wmc1gval1-N1Wmc1gval0
Analiza factorial a cifrei de afaceri
model (2) - exemplu
99
Analiza factorial a cifrei de afaceri model (3)
CA
DCA = CA1-CA0
DN : N1Wmc0-N0Wmc0
DWmc : N1Wmc1-N1Wmc0, din care
Dginz : N1ginz1strimo0Wmfp0-N1ginz0strimo0Wmfp0
100
Dstrimo : N1ginz1strimo1Wmfp0-N1ginz1strimo0Wmfp 0
DWmfp : N1ginz1strimo1Wmfp1-N1ginz1strimo1Wmfp0
Analiza factorial a cifrei de afaceri
model (3) - exemplu
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016
CA 140,000 148,500 163,000 177,200 186,700
Nr.angajati 120 125 130 134 140
mijloace fixe 25,000 27,000 28,700 31,000 33,400
mijloace fixe productive 21,500 26,000 27,000 30,800 32,600
101
Analiza dinamicii i structurii
valorii adugate - exemplu
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
programat realizat
venituri din vanzari de marfuri 10,000 8,500 8,000 9,200 9,500 9,700
cheltuieli aferente marfurilor vandute 9,700 8,200 7,800 8,900 9,300 9,400
marja comerciala 300 300 200 300 200 300
productia vanduta 130,000 140,000 155,000 168,000 172,000 177,000
productia stocata 2,000 2,400 2,200 2,700 2,600 2,500
productia imobilizata 960 1,100 980 1,050 1,200 1,100
productia exercitiului 132,960 143,500 158,180 171,750 175,800 180,600
consumuri externe 98,000 105,000 124,000 135,000 146,000 148,000
cifra de afaceri 140,000 148,500 163,000 177,200 181,500 186,700
valoarea adaugata 35,260 38,800 34,380 37,050 30,000 32,900
102
Analiza dinamicii i structurii
valorii adugate - exemplu
INDICI (DINAMICA)
2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014 2016p/2015 2016r/2015 2016r/2016p
venituri din vanzari de marfuri 85.00 94.12 115.00 103.26 105.43 102.11
cheltuieli aferente marfurilor vandute 84.54 95.12 114.10 104.49 105.62 101.08
marja comerciala 100.00 66.67 150.00 66.67 100.00 150.00
productia vanduta 107.69 110.71 108.39 102.38 105.36 102.91
productia stocata 120.00 91.67 122.73 96.30 92.59 96.15
productia imobilizata 114.58 89.09 107.14 114.29 104.76 91.67
productia exercitiului 107.93 110.23 108.58 102.36 105.15 102.73
consumuri externe 107.14 118.10 108.87 108.15 109.63 101.37
cifra de afaceri 106.07 109.76 108.71 102.43 105.36 102.87
valoarea adaugata 110.04 88.61 107.77 80.97 88.80 109.67
103
Analiza dinamicii i structurii
valorii adugate - exemplu
MODIFICARI relative (DINAMICA)
2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014 2016p/2015 2016r/2015
104
Analiza dinamicii i structurii
valorii adugate - exemplu
MODIFICARI absolute(DINAMICA)
2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014 2016p/2015 2016r/2015 2016r/2016p
venituri din vanzari de marfuri -1,500 -500 1,200 300 500 200
cheltuieli aferente marfurilor vandute-1,500 -400 1,100 400 500 100
marja comerciala 0 -100 100 -100 0 100
productia vanduta 10,000 15,000 13,000 4,000 9,000 5,000
productia stocata 400 -200 500 -100 -200 -100
productia imobilizata 140 -120 70 150 50 -100
productia exercitiului 10,540 14,680 13,570 4,050 8,850 4,800
consumuri externe 7,000 19,000 11,000 11,000 13,000 2,000
cifra de afaceri 8,500 14,500 14,200 4,300 9,500 5,200
valoarea adaugata 3,540 -4,420 2,670 -7,050 -4,150 2,900
105
Model de analiza factoriala a VA
model (1)
VA
VA / Nr.angajati
DVA = VA1-VA0
DN : N1Wmc_VA0-N0Wmc_VA0
Dproductivitate : N1Wmc_VA1-N1Wmc_VA0
Model de analiza factoriala a VA
model (1) - exemplu
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016
VA 35,260 38,800 34,380 37,050 30,000
Nr.angajati 120 125 130 134 140
Wmc_VA 294 310 264 276 214
DVA 3,540 -4,420 2,670 -7,050
impact N 1,469 1,552 1,058 1,659 42% -35% 40% -24%
impact Wmc_VA 2,071 -5,972 1,612 -8,709 58% 135% 60% 124%
3,540 -4,420 2,670 -7,050 100% 100% 100% 100%
Model de analiza factoriala a VA
model (2)
VA
DVA = VA1-VA0
DN : N1Wmc_PE0va0-N0Wmc_PE0va0
Dproductivitate : N1Wmc_PE1va0-N1Wmc_PE0va0
DWhmc_PE: N1Whmc_PE1t0va0-N1Whmc_PE0t0va0
Dt: N1Whmc_PE1t1va0-N1Whmc_PE1t0va0
Dva : N1Wmc_PE1va1-N1Wmc_PE1va0
Model de analiza factoriala a VA
model (2) - exemplu
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016
VA 35,260 38,800 34,380 37,050 30,000
Nr.angajati 120 125 130 134 140
productia exercitiului 132,960 143,500 158,180 171,750 175,800
T 253,440 240,000 262,080 295,872 284,928
N 120 125 130 134 140
Wmc_PE 1,108 1,148 1,217 1,282 1,256
Whmc_PE 0.52 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.62
t 2,112 1,920 2,016 2,208 2,035
va 0.27 0.27 0.22 0.22 0.17
DVA 3,540 -4,420 2,670 -7,050
impact N 1,469 1,552 1,058 1,659 42% -35% 40% -24%
impact Wmc_PE 1,326 2,417 1,892 -785 37% -55% 71% 11%
impact Whmc_PE 5,131 381 -1,354 2,435 387% 16% -72% -310%
impact t -3,806 2,037 3,246 -3,220 -287% 84% 172% 410%
impact va 745 -8,389 -279 -7,924 21% 190% -10% 112%
3,540 -4,420 2,670 -7,050 100% 100% 100% 100%
Analiza factoriala a EBT
= = = 1 =
/ = /
Factori determinanti:
Venituri totale (V)
REBT/V
structura veniturilor totale pe categorii de activiti
(gi)
REBTi/Vi
110
Analiza factoriala a EBT - exemplu
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EBT 12,260 10,420 12,480 13,582 4,610
V 142,960 152,000 166,180 180,950 190,300
Ch 130,700 141,580 153,700 167,368 185,690
V-Ch 12,260 10,420 12,480 13,582 4,610
(V-Ch)/V 9% 7% 8% 8% 2%
modificare EBT -1,840 2,060 1,102 -8,972
impact modificare V 775 972 1,109 702
impact modificare EBT/V -2,615 1,088 -7 -9,674
-1,840 2,060 1,102 -8,972
111
Analiza factoriala a RE model (1)
= =
= / =
/
Factori determinanti:
Venituri de exploatare (Vexpl)
RRE/Vexpl
structura veniturilor de exploatare pe categorii de
activiti (gi)
RREi/Vexpli
112
Analiza factoriala a RE model (1) - exemplu
113
Analiza factoriala a RE model (2)
=
Factori determinanti:
N, mijloace fixe/N, mijloace fixe productive/mijloace fixe,
productia exercitiului/mijloace fixe productive, venituri
dexploatare/productia exercitiului, rezultat exploatare/venituri
exploatare (structura pe categorii de activitati, Rei/Vexpli)
114
Analiza factoriala a RE model (2) - exemplu
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
rezultat exploatare 17,460 16,220 18,680 20,382 12,410
N 120 125 130 134 140
mijloace fixe 25,000 27,000 28,700 31,000 33,400
mijloace fixe productive 21,500 26,000 27,000 30,800 32,600
productie exercitiului 132,960 143,500 158,180 171,750 180,600
V expl 142,960 152,000 166,180 180,950 190,300
mijloace fixe / N 208 216 221 231 239
mijloace fixe productive / mijloace86%
fixe 96% 94% 99% 98%
prod ex / mijloace fixe prod 6 6 6 6 6
V expl / prod ex 108% 106% 105% 105% 105%
RE / v expl 12% 11% 11% 11% 7%
modificare RE -1,240 2,460 1,702 -7,972
impact modificare N 728 649 575 913
impact modificare mijl fixe/N 669 372 922 665
impact modificare mijl fixe prod/mijl fixe 2,258 -397 1,132 -387
impact modificare prod ex/mijl fixe prod -2,270 1,035 -1,027 -141
impact modificare V expl / prod ex -280 -146 58 1153
impact modificare RE / V expl -2,344 947 42 -9,025
Analiza factoriala a RE model (3)
=
Factori determinanti:
Active exploatare
venituri de exploatare/active de exploatare
rezultat exploatare/venituri exploatare (structura pe categorii de
activitati, Rei/Vexpli)
116
Analiza cheltuielilor
indicatori valorici
analiza dinamicii -- evolutia indicatorilor
valorici indici, modificari absolute si relative
analiza structurii -- pondere in total cheltuieli
raport static i dinamic dintre indicatorii
valorici
cheltuieli totale, marginale, medii, unitare
118
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1 leu VE
analiza factoriala model (1)
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1 leu venituri din exploatare
= =
Factori de influenta:
venituri de exploatare
timp total T
productivitate orara wh_VE = venituri de exploatare / T
amortizare
mijloace fixe
cota de amortizare = amortizare / mijloace fixe,
119
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1 leu VE
analiza factoriala model (1) - exemplu
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 r
Amo 9,800 9,900 10,400 11,100 10,200
V expl 142,960 152,000 166,180 180,950 190,300
mijloace fixe 25,000 27,000 28,700 31,000 33,400
T 253,440 240,000 262,080 295,872 284,928
wh_VE 0.56 0.63 0.63 0.61 0.67
AmoV expl 0.0686 0.0651 0.0626 0.0613 0.0536
delta Amo V ex pl -0.0034 -0.0025 -0.0012 -0.0077
impact modificare V expl -0.0041 -0.0056 -0.0051 -0.0030
impact modificare T 0.0038 -0.0055 -0.0071 0.0024
impact modificare wh_VE -0.0079 -0.0001 0.0020 -0.0054
impact modificare Amo 0.0007 0.0030 0.0039 -0.0047
impact modificare V expl 119% 218% 412% 39%
impact modificare T -112% 215% 577% -30%
impact modificare wh 232% 3% -164% 69%
impact modificare CF -19% -118% -312% 61%
120
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1000 lei VE
analiza factoriala model (2)
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1 leu venituri din exploatare
=
Factori de influenta:
eficiena utilizrii mijloacelor fixe (mijloace
fixe/venituri de exploatare)
cota de amortizare = amortizare / mijloace fixe
121
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1000 lei VE
analiza factoriala model (2) - exemplu
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 r
Amo 9,800 9,900 10,400 11,100 10,200
V expl 142,960 152,000 166,180 180,950 190,300
mijloace fixe 25000 27000 28700 31000 33400
1000VE
Amo 69 65 63 61 54
1000 VE
delta Amo -3.42 -2.55 -1.24 -7.74
eficienta utilizarii mijl fixe 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.18
cota amortizare * 1000 392.00 366.67 362.37 358.06 305.39
impact modificare mijloace fixe / VE
(eficienta utilizarii mijl fixe) 1.08 -1.81 -0.50 1.50
impact modificare Amo / mijl fixe (cota
amo) -4.50 -0.74 -0.74 -9.25
-3.42 -2.55 -1.24 -7.74
impact modificare efic utiliz mijl fixe -32% 71% 41% -19%
impact modificare cota amo * 1000 132% 29% 59% 119%
122
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1000 lei CA
model (3)
= 1000
= 1000
Factori de influenta:
cifra de afaceri
cantitate
pret
amortizare
mijloace fixe
cota de amortizare = amortizare / mijloace fixe,
123
Cheltuieli cu amortizarea la 1000 lei CA model
(3) - exemplu
124
Analiza factoriala a cheltuielilor cu personalul
model (1)
=
=
Factori de influenta:
numar angajati (N)
productivitatea muncii (V exploatare / N)
timp de munca pe salariat
productivitate orara a muncii (V exploatare / T)
salarii la 1 leu venit de exploatare (salarii / V exploatare)
structura veniturilor din exploatare pe produse, lucrri, servicii (gi)
cheltuieli cu salariile la 1 leu producie pe produse, lucrri, servicii
(sali)
125
Analiza factoriala a cheltuielilor cu personalul
model (2)
Factori de influenta:
numar angajati (N)
timp de munca pe salariat (t=T/N)
salariu mediu orar (salarii / T)
126
Analiza eficienei cheltuielilor cu personalul
a) Cheltuieli cu personalul la 1 leu venituri din exploatare
= =
Factori: N/VE, Sal/N
127
Analiza cheltuielilor cu dobnzile
cheltuielilor financiare i, de regul, nu se includ n costul produciei. Ele reprezint
costuri ale capitalului mprumutat, iar eficiena lor prezint importan n analiza
economic.
131
IS - %D 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CA 8.10% 33.38% 68.27% 38.65% 27.25%
Cost of Revenue 8.70% 33.85% 64.21% 38.71% 19.75%
Gross Profit 6.55% 32.14% 79.09% 38.50% 45.62%
Operating Income -105.88% -31400.00% 424.92% 49.30% 79.66%
Net Income Before Taxes 5.75% 302.17% 388.65% 55.86% 77.64%
Net Income After Taxes 4.62% 291.18% 399.25% 49.77% 75.72%
Normalized EBIT -47.92% 1244.00% 388.99% 49.30% 79.66%
Normalized EBITDA -14.81% 252.17% 274.90% 46.98% 76.03%
APPLE
IS - %D 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
income CA 52.54% 14.44% 52.02% 65.96% 44.58%
statement Cost of Revenue 47.90% 5.72% 53.96% 62.95% 36.34%
Gross Profit 61.89% 30.50% 49.13% 70.60% 56.70%
D% Operating Income 88.95% 40.99% 56.60% 83.79% 63.48%
Net Income Before Taxes 78.73% 34.86% 53.65% 84.49% 63.03%
Net Income After Taxes 75.08% 34.58% 70.16% 84.99% 60.99%
Normalized EBIT 88.95% 40.99% 56.60% 83.79%13263.48%
Normalized EBITDA 85.83% 41.54% 55.41% 84.77% 64.36%
APPLE income statement D%
133
Peers competitors - TR
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin
Operating Margin
Pretax Margin
Gross Margin 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AAPL.O - Apple Inc 27.52% 27.26% 29.01% 28.98% 33.17% 35.20% 40.14% 39.38% 40.48% 43.87%
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Co
25.80% 23.50% 23.00% 24.00% 24.10% 24.00% 23.40% 23.70% 23.20% 22.90%
DELL.O - Dell Inc 17.90% 18.20% 18.40% 17.70% 16.60% 19.10% 17.90% 17.50% 18.50% 22.30%
CSCO.OQ - Cisco Systems
70.10%
Inc 68.60% 67.20% 65.80% 63.70% 64.10% 63.90% 64.00% 61.50% 61.20%
MSI.N - Motorola Solutions
32.40%
Inc 33.60% 32.40% 29.70% 48.50% 50.60% 50.10% 50.00% 50.50% 50.00%
INT C.OQ - Intel Corp 56.70% 57.70% 59.40% 51.50% 51.90% 55.50% 55.70% 65.30% 62.50% 62.10%
NOK1V.HE - Nokia Oyj 41.50% 38.10% 35.00% 32.50% 33.80% 34.30% 32.40% 30.20% 29.30% 27.80%
GOOG.OQ - Google Inc 57.30% 53.90% 58.00% 60.20% 59.90% 60.40% 62.60% 64.50% 65.20% 59.10%
APPLE 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5
average 41.15% 40.11% 40.30% 38.80% 41.46% 42.90% 43.27% 44.32% 43.90% 43.66%
median 36.95% 35.85% 33.70% 31.10% 41.15% 42.90% 45.12% 44.69% 45.49% 46.94%
27.09, 26.32, 27.51, 27.74, 30.9, 31.73, 30.15, 28.58, 27.78, 26.58,
quartile 36.95, 35.85, 31.1, 41.15, 42.9, 45.12, 44.69, 45.49, 46.94,
56.85 54.85 33.7, 58.35 53.68 53.9 56.73 57.43 64.13 61.75 59.63
q q2 q2 q2 q2 q2 q2 q2 q2 q2 q2
135
APPLE income statement EBITDA margin
peers comparison
EBITDA Margin 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AAPL.O - Apple Inc 2.20% 5.90% 13.10% 13.90% 19.20% 23.40% 28.90% 29.50% 32.90% 37.40%
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard9.00%
Co 8.60% 8.40% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 13.80% 14.10% 13.70% 12.00%
DELL.O - Dell Inc 8.60% 9.20% 9.20% 8.60% 6.20% 6.80% 6.90% 6.80% 7.80% 9.20%
CSCO.OQ - Cisco Systems
33.60%
Inc 34.00% 34.10% 29.60% 29.00% 28.30% 25.60% 28.70% 26.70% 28.60%
MSI.N - Motorola Solutions
8.80%Inc 12.50% 14.70% 11.50% 3.60% -9.00% 13.90% 14.80% 16.70% 17.00%
INT C.OQ - Intel Corp43.90% 43.90% 43.00% 31.40% 35.30% 38.00% 31.30% 46.40% 44.00% 41.50%
NOK1V.HE - Nokia Oyj
20.60% 17.70% 15.70% 15.50% 18.30% 14.00% 10.00% 9.40% 6.30% -3.20%
GOOG.OQ - Google Inc
26.80% 31.00% 39.10% 38.80% 36.50% 37.30% 41.50% 40.10% 37.10% 32.30%
APPLE 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2
average 19.19% 20.35% 22.16% 19.91% 19.89% 18.85% 21.49% 23.73% 23.15% 21.85%
median 14.80% 15.10% 15.20% 14.70% 18.75% 18.70% 19.75% 21.75% 21.70% 22.80%
8.75, 9.05, 12.13, 11.13, 9.8, 10.7, 12.85, 12.93, 12.23, 11.3,
quartile 14.8, 15.1, 15.2, 14.7, 18.75, 18.7, 19.75, 21.75, 21.7, 22.8,
28.5 31.75 35.35 30.05 30.58 30.55 29.5 32.15 33.95 33.58
q q1 q1 q2 q2 q3 q3 q3 q3 q3 q4
136
APPLE income statement gross margin
peers comparison
O perating Margin 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AAPL.O - Apple Inc-0.02% 3.78% 11.79% 12.70% 17.93% 22.21% 27.36% 28.19% 31.22% 35.30%
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard
4.00%
Co 5.20% 3.90% 7.20% 8.40% 8.80% 8.80% 9.10% 7.60% -9.20%
DELL.O - Dell Inc 8.00% 8.60% 8.60% 7.90% 5.30% 5.60% 5.20% 4.10% 5.70% 7.10%
CSCO.OQ - Cisco Systems
25.90%Inc28.50% 29.90% 24.60% 24.70% 23.90% 20.30% 22.90% 17.80% 21.90%
MSI.N - Motorola Solutions
5.20% Inc
10.10% 12.60% 9.50% 3.60% -9.00% 8.00% 9.40% 9.40% 14.30%
INT C.OQ - Intel Corp
25.00% 29.60% 30.60% 15.80% 20.90% 19.70% 15.60% 35.40% 32.10% 27.40%
NOK1V.HE - Nokia17.00%
Oyj 14.70% 13.60% 13.30% 15.60% 9.80% 2.90% 4.90% -2.80% -7.60%
GOOG.OQ - Google 23.40%
Inc 20.10% 32.90% 33.50% 30.60% 25.40% 35.10% 35.40% 30.70% 25.40%
APPLE 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 3 2 1
average 13.56% 15.07% 17.99% 15.56% 15.88% 13.30% 15.41% 18.67% 16.46% 14.32%
median 12.50% 12.40% 13.10% 13.00% 16.77% 14.75% 12.20% 16.15% 13.60% 18.10%
4.9, 7.75, 11, 9.1, 7.63, 8, 7.3, 8.05, 7.13, 3.43,
quartile 12.5, 12.4, 13.1, 13, 16.77, 14.75, 12.2, 16.15, 13.6, 18.1,
23.8 22.2 30.08 18 21.85 22.63 22.07 29.99 30.83 25.9
q q1 q1 q2 q2 q3 q3 q4 q3 q4 q4
137
APPLE income statement gross margin
peers comparison
Pre tax Margin 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AAPL.O - Apple Inc 1.48% 4.47% 12.98% 14.59% 20.37% 23.86% 28.12% 28.42% 31.60% 35.63%
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Co4.00% 5.30% 4.10% 7.90% 8.80% 8.90% 8.20% 8.70% 7.10% -10.00%
DELL.O - Dell Inc 8.50% 9.00% 9.00% 8.30% 5.80% 6.30% 5.40% 3.80% 5.40% 6.80%
CSCO.OQ - Cisco Systems
26.60%
Inc 31.70% 32.40% 26.80% 27.10% 25.90% 21.30% 23.50% 18.10% 22.10%
MSI.N - Motorola Solutions
5.90%
Inc 10.50% 18.20% 10.80% 4.80% -13.00% 9.10% 8.70% 9.00% 14.00%
INT C.OQ - Intel Corp 24.70% 30.50% 32.50% 20.00% 23.90% 20.40% 16.20% 36.80% 32.90% 27.90%
NOK1V.HE - Nokia Oyj 18.10% 16.00% 14.50% 13.90% 16.20% 9.80% 2.30% 4.20% -3.10% -8.70%
GOOG.OQ - Google Inc 23.60% 20.40% 34.90% 37.80% 34.20% 26.90% 35.40% 36.80% 32.50% 26.70%
APPLE 8 8 6 4 4 3 2 3 3 1
average 14.11% 15.98% 19.82% 17.51% 17.65% 13.63% 15.75% 18.87% 16.69% 14.30%
median 13.30% 13.25% 16.35% 14.24% 18.28% 15.10% 12.65% 16.10% 13.55% 18.05%
5.43, 8.08, 11.98, 10.18, 8.05, 8.25, 7.5, 7.58, 6.68, 2.93,
quartile 13.3, 13.25, 16.35, 14.24, 18.28, 15.1, 12.65, 16.1, 13.55, 18.05,
23.88 22.93 32.43 21.7 24.7 24.37 23.01 30.52 31.82 27
q q1 q1 q2 q3 q3 q3 q4 q3 q3 q4
138
APPLE income statement gross margin
peers comparison
Effective Tax Rate 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AAPL.O - Apple Inc 26.09% 28.11% 26.55% 29.42% 30.18% 31.61% 31.75% 24.42% 24.22% 25.16%
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard12.10%
Co 16.70% 32.30% 13.80% 20.80% 20.50% 18.60% 20.20% 21.20% -
DELL.O - Dell Inc 29.90% 29.00% 31.50% 21.80% 22.80% 23.00% 25.50% 29.20% 21.30% 17.60%
CSCO.OQ - Cisco Systems
28.60%
Inc 28.90% 28.60% 26.90% 22.50% 21.50% 20.30% 17.50% 17.10% 20.80%
MSI.N - Motorola Solutions
32.60%
Inc 32.60% 29.50% 29.30% 6.00% - 29.70% 60.70% -0.40% 27.70%
INT C.OQ - Intel Corp 24.20% 27.80% 31.30% 28.60% 23.90% 31.10% 23.40% 28.60% 27.20% 26.00%
NOK1V.HE - Nokia Oyj3 1.80% 30.70% 25.80% 23.70% 18.40% 21.80% 73.00% 24.80% - -
GOOG.OQ - Google Inc 69.50% 38.60% 31.60% 23.30% 25.90% 27.80% 22.20% 21.20% 21.00% 19.40%
APPLE 3 3 2 8 8 7 7 4 6 4
average 31.85% 29.05% 29.64% 24.60% 21.31% 25.33% 30.56% 28.33% 18.80% 22.78%
median 29.25% 28.95% 30.40% 25.30% 22.65% 23.00% 24.45% 24.61% 21.20% 22.98%
32, 31.18, 31.53, 28.78, 24.4, 29.45, 30.21, 28.75, 22.76, 25.79,
quartile 29.25, 28.95, 30.4, 25.3, 22.65, 23, 24.45, 24.61, 21.2, 22.98,
25.62 28.03 28.09 22.93 20.2 21.65 21.73 20.95 19.05 19.75
q q3 q3 q4 q1 q1 q1 q1 q3 q1 q2
139
APPLE income statement gross margin
peers comparison
Net margin 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AAPL.O - Apple Inc1.10% 3.20% 9.50% 10.30% 14.20% 16.30% 19.20% 21.50% 23.90% 26.70%
HP 3.50% 4.40% 2.80% 6.80% 7.00% 7.00% 6.70% 7.00% 5.60% -10.50%
DELL 6.00% 6.40% 6.10% 6.50% 4.50% 4.80% 4.10% 2.70% 4.30% 5.60%
Cisco 19.00% 22.50% 23.10% 19.60% 21.00% 20.40% 17.00% 19.40% 15.00% 17.50%
Motorola 4.00% 7.10% 12.80% 7.60% 4.50% -44.40% 6.40% 3.40% 9.00% 10.10%
Intel 18.70% 22.00% 22.30% 14.30% 18.20% 14.10% 12.40% 26.30% 24.00% 20.60%
Nokia 12.40% 11.10% 10.80% 10.60% 13.20% 7.70% 0.60% 3.20% -3.80% -12.50%
Google 7.20% 12.50% 23.90% 29.00% 25.30% 19.40% 27.60% 29.00% 25.70% 21.50%
APPLE 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 3 3 1
average 8.99% 11.15% 13.91% 13.09% 13.49% 5.66% 11.75% 14.06% 12.96% 9.88%
median 7.20% 11.10% 12.80% 10.60% 14.20% 14.10% 12.40% 19.40% 15.00% 17.50%
4, 6.4, 9.5, 7.6, 7, 7, 6.4, 3.4, 5.6, 5.6,
quartile 7.2, 11.1, 12.8, 10.6, 14.2, 14.1, 12.4, 19.4, 15, 17.5,
18.7 22 23.1 19.6 21 19.4 19.2 26.3 24 21.5
q q1 q1 q2 q2 q3 q3 q4 q3 q3 q4
140
APPLE income statement margins
peers comparison
APPLE 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Gross Margin 48.54% 42.04% 41.73% 53.15% 51.29% 51.10% 49.00% 53.11% 47.47% 43.68%
EBITDA Margin 13.20% 5.70% 9.50% 17.10% 16.60% 17.10% 14.40% 17.10% 13.90% 14.40%
Operating Margin 13.19% 5.66% 5.36% 14.38% 13.96% 15.24% 12.00% 12.81% 7.09% 11.37%
Pretax Margin 14.87% 7.20% 6.26% 16.28% 15.42% 16.12% 14.09% 14.01% 7.92% 12.07%
Effective Tax Rate 47.50% 41.33% 49.00% 50.29% 47.00% 39.00% 39.00% 39.00% 38.00% 38.00%
Net margin 7.80% 4.20% 3.20% 8.10% 8.20% 9.80% 8.60% 8.50% 4.90% 7.50%
APLLE 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Gross Margin 34.20% 25.51% 25.84% 9.84% 19.32% 24.89% 27.65% 27.13% 23.03% 27.92%
EBITDA Margin 7.50% 6.10% 7.10% -11.10% -4.00% 6.40% 7.70% 7.70% -4.30% 2.80%
Operating Margin 1.38% 5.68% 6.18% -14.06% -15.11% 4.39% 5.85% 6.54% -6.41% 0.30%
Pretax Margin 1.75% 5.44% 6.09% -13.17% -14.76% 5.54% 11.02% 13.68% -0.97% 1.52%
Effective Tax Rate 38.00% 38.00% 37.09% 36.99% 0.00% 6.08% 11.09% 28.02% 28.85% 25.29%
Net margin 1.10% 3.40% 3.80% -8.30% -14.80% 5.20% 9.80% 9.80% -0.70% 1.10%
APPLE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gross Margin 27.52% 27.26% 29.01% 28.98% 33.17% 35.20% 40.14% 39.38% 40.48% 43.87%
EBITDA Margin 2.20% 5.90% 13.10% 13.90% 19.20% 23.40% 28.90% 29.50% 32.90% 37.40%
Operating Margin -0.02% 3.78% 11.79% 12.70% 17.93% 22.21% 27.36% 28.19% 31.22% 35.30%
Pretax Margin 1.48% 4.47% 12.98% 14.59% 20.37% 23.86% 28.12% 28.42% 31.60% 35.63%
Effective Tax Rate 26.09% 28.11% 26.55% 29.42% 30.18% 31.61% 31.75% 24.42% 24.22% 25.16%
Net margin 1.10% 3.20% 9.50% 10.30% 14.20% 16.30% 19.20% 21.50% 23.90% 26.70%
141
APPLE income statement
net margin
142
Teme / sugestii / recomandari
PROIECT analiza pe baza contului de profit si pierdere
cititi & prezentati un articol stiintific pe tema factori
determinanti ai performantei financiare
Damodaran online -
http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/
Recomandare carte
The Tipping Point, 2000 Malcolm Gladwell
Chiar daca pentru investitori pare important profitul, pentru manageri, creditori,
actionari este mai relevant tabloul fluxurilor de trezorerie; spre deosebire de
contul de profit si pierdere, in care sunt inregistrate toate veniturile si
cheltuielile, inclusiv cele nemonetare sau generatoare de fluxuri ulterioare,
tabloul fluxurilor de trezorerie inregistreaza doar fluxurile de incasari si
plati, explicand valoarea si modul de obtinere a trezoreriei, astfel ca ofera o
imagine fidela a capacitatii firmei de a-si permite plata
datoriilor, a creditelor, a dividendelor si de a finanta cresterea
viitoare.
Analiza cash-flow-urilor
Analiza cash-flow-urilor
DFR
utilizri pe termen < 1 an resurse pe termen < 1 an
stocuri i creane de exploatare stocuri i creane de exploatare
ali debitori ali debitori
datoriilor de exploatare datoriilor de exploatare
datoriilor ctre ali creditori datoriilor n afara exploatrii
DNFR
D=DFR-DNFR
Analiza financiara pe baza
bilantului exemplu FIRMA
BILANT
2014 2015
active imobilizate 1360 1840 datorii <1 an 276 360
imobilizari necorporale 200 300 datorii comerciale 222 280
alte datorii 54 80
imobilizari corporale 1000 1300 active circulante nete 300 444
imobilizari financiare 160 240 datorii >1 an 450 760
28
Managementul trezoreriei
bugetul de trezorerie
Construirea bugetului de trezorerie se realizeaz prin parcurgerea
urmtoarelor etape :
29
Managementul trezoreriei
bugetul de trezorerie
3. determinarea, la nivelul fiecrei subperioade, a soldului de
trezorerie (a trezoreriei finale), n funcie de trezoreria
iniial i de cash-flowul previzionat :
30
Managementul trezoreriei
bugetul de trezorerie
5. plasarea eficient, rentabil i lichid a excedentului de
trezorerie, respectiv atragerea resurselor necesare
pentru acoperirea deficitului de trezorerie la costuri ct
mai reduse (n caz c nu este posibil scderea deficitului
prin urgentarea ncasrilor , inclusiv prin acordarea de
discounturi la preul de vnzare, sau prin amnarea plilor
n cadrul permis de clauzele contractuale)
31
Managementul trezoreriei
bugetul de trezorerie - exemplu
Ipoteza 1: firma are ncasri doar din vnzarea de
produse finite; cifra de afaceri previzionat (estimarea
vnzrilor presupune un anumit grad de incertitudine)
este de 200.000 lei n luna ianuarie, dup care urmeaz o
modificari lunare conform estimarilor
33
Managementul trezoreriei
bugetul de trezorerie - exemplu
Ipoteza 5: la inceputul anului soldul creantelor este de
79.000 lei, soldul furnizorilor este de 37.000 lei, soldul altor
datorii 25.000 lei, toate avand scadenta in ianuarie.
Ipoteza 6: la inceputul anului trezoreria este de 20.000 lei.
Ipoteza 7: Toate aceste calcule au avut la baz previziunea
lunar a cifrei de afaceri, existnd implicit riscul apariiei
unor factori imprevizibili (ntreruperea procesului de
aprovizionare, producie i vnzare, modificarea termenelor
de plat sau ncasare, etc.) sau a unor erori de estimare ;
pentru acoperirea acestor riscuri, firma poate stabili un nivel
int (dorit) al trezoreriei superior pragului de zero, sau
poate determina un nivel optim al trezoreriei
S presupunem c firma dorete un nivel minim al trezoreriei
de :
(a) zero; (b) 10.000 lei
creditele de trezorerie au o dobanda de 9% 34
( 0,72% pe luna)
Managementul trezoreriei
bugetul de trezorerie - exemplu
suma ian feb mar apr mai iun iul aug sep oct noi dec sold final
CA ian 200,000 76,000 70,000 50,000
CA feb 210,000 79,800 73,500 52,500
CA mar 220,500 83,790 77,175 55,125
CA apr 231,525 87,980 81,034 57,881
CA mai 243,101 92,378 85,085 60,775
CA iun 243,101 92,378 85,085 60,775
CA iul 238,239 90,531 83,384 59,560
CA aug 233,474 88,720 81,716 58,369
CA sep 249,818 94,931 87,436 62,454
CA oct 267,305 101,576 93,557 66,826
CA noi 286,016 108,686 100,106 71,504
CA dec 303,177 115,207 181,906
creante (n-1) 79,000 79000
total incasari aferente vanzarilor
155,000 149,800 207,290 217,655 228,537 235,345 236,392 232,879 236,207 247,381 264,697 282,139
35
Managementul trezoreriei
bugetul de trezorerie - exemplu
suma ian feb mar apr mai iun iul aug sep oct noi dec sold final
aprovizionari ian 115,500 45,276 69,300
aprovizionari feb 121,275 47,540 72,765
aprovizionari mar 127,339 49,917 76,403
aprovizionari apr 133,706 52,413 80,223
aprovizionari mai 133,706 52,413 80,223
aprovizionari iun 131,032 51,364 78,619
aprovizionari iul 128,411 50,337 77,047
aprovizionari aug 137,400 53,861 82,440
aprovizionari sep 147,018 57,631 88,211
aprovizionari oct 157,309 61,665 94,385
aprovizionari noi 166,747 65,365 100,048
aprovizionari dec 175,085 68,633 105,051
furnizori (n-1) 37,000 37,000
total plati aferente aprovizionarilor
82,276 116,840 122,682 128,816 132,636 131,588 128,956 130,907 140,071 149,876 159,750 168,682
plata salariilor 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
plata chiriei 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000
plata impozitelor 15,000 0 0 0 0 20,000 0 0 0 0 0 0
plata altor datorii (n-1) 25,000 25,000
plata dividendelor 0 0 0 0 25,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total plati 172,276 166,840 172,682 178,816 207,636 201,588 178,956 180,907 190,071 199,876 209,750 218,682
36
Managementul trezoreriei
bugetul de trezorerie - exemplu
suma ian feb mar apr mai iun iul aug sep oct noi dec
total incasari aferente vanzarilor
155,000 149,800 207,290 217,655 228,537 235,345 236,392 232,879 236,207 247,381 264,697 282,139
total plati 172,276 166,840 172,682 178,816 207,636 201,588 178,956 180,907 190,071 199,876 209,750 218,682
CF -17,276 -17,040 34,608 38,839 20,901 33,757 57,436 51,972 46,136 47,505 54,947 63,458
TN0 20,000 2,724 -14,316 20,292 59,131 80,032 113,790 171,225 223,197 269,333 316,838 371,785
TN1 2,724 -14,316 20,292 59,131 80,032 113,790 171,225 223,197 269,333 316,838 371,785 435,242
(a) necesar de finantat 0 14,316 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
credit de trezorerie 0 14,316 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
dobanda aferenta creditului de trezorerie 0 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
rambursare credit trezorerie 0 14,316 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TN1 modificata 2,724 0 5,873 59,131 80,032 113,790 171,225 223,197 269,333 316,838 371,785 435,242
(b) necesar de finantat 7,276 10,000 4,127 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TN0 modificata 20,000 10,000 10,000 20,064 58,903 79,804 113,562 170,997 222,969 269,105 316,610 371,557
credit de trezorerie 7,276 24,368 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
dobanda aferenta creditului de trezorerie 52 176 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
rambursare credit trezorerie 7,276 24,368 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TN1 modificata 10,000 10,000 20,064 58,903 79,804 113,562 170,997 222,969 269,105 316,610 371,557 435,014
37
Modele de determinare a
soldului optim de trezorerie
Nivel trezorerie ????
un nivel prea ridicat al trezoreriei conduce la scderea
rentabilitii firmei prin costurile de oportunitate ;
un nivel prea sczut genereaz costuri de ajustare, legate de
procurarea de disponibiliti.
38
Modele de determinare a soldului optim
de trezorerie
Aceste dou tipuri de costuri se modific n sens
invers la modificarea soldului de trezorerie :
costul de oportunitate crete prin creterea
nivelului disponibilitilor
costul de tranzacionare scade prin creterea
nivelului disponibilitilor.
4 5
4 0
3 5
3 0
2 5
2 0
cost total
1 5
1 0
cost oportunitate
5 cost tranzactionare
39
0
0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0
Managementul trezoreriei
exist o valoare a soldului de trezorerie pentru care
costul total este minim - modelul Baumol-Allais-
Tobin, cu ipotezele:
Notatii:
S0 =nivel iniial al soldului de trezorerie
Necesar saptamanal= ieirile de numerar sptmnale
40
Managementul trezoreriei
Pentru determinarea soldului optim de trezorerie trebuie analizat
evoluia costurilor de oportunitate i de tranzacionare :
Costul de oportunitate = (S0/2) R,
unde R = costul de oportunitate reprezentat de rentabilitatea
titlurilor de plasament
41
Necesar saptamanal 15000
R 15%
F 10 S0 optim 10198
S0 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 10198 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000
cost oportunitate 375 450 525 600 675 750 765 825 900 975 1050 1125
cost tranzactionare 1560 1300 1114 975 867 780 765 709 650 600 557 520
cost total 1935 1750 1639 1575 1542 1530 1529.7 1534 1550 1575 1607 1645
2500
2000
cost total
1500
1000
500
cost tranzactionare
cost oportunitate
0
4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Management trezorerie
Modelul Miller-Orr are ca ipotez
variaia aleatoare a fluxurilor de ncasri i
pli, astfel c soldul zilnic de trezorerie
nregistreaz scderi, dar i creteri
aleatoare.
43
Modelul Miller-Orr
1 2
Sold
zilnic de
lichiditi
1 0
Limita superioar
Nivel optim de
4
lichiditti
Limita inferioar
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 0
3 4 F 2
Nivel optim Limita inferioara 3
R
2=abaterea standard a soldului zilnic de lichiditi nregistrat anterior
R = rentabilitatea zilnic a titlurilor de plasament
iar limita superioar este dat de relaia :
44
Limita superioara 3 Nivel optim - 2 Limita inferioara
Modelul Miller-Orr
45
CICLUL CASH (CASH CYCLE)
Ciclul cash
Ciclul operaional intervalul de timp de la momentul
aprovizionrii cu stocuri i momentul ncasrilor din
vnzrile de produse finite.
Ciclul operaional = durata de rotaie a stocurilor
+ durata de ncasare a clienilor
disponibilitati
factori de
creante
productie
vanzari
48
1. DISPONIBILITATI
Managementul disponibilitilor
Obiectiv Atragerea de capital necesar
Scaderea costurilor de finanare
Strategie Prin analiza capitalului necesar i
previziunea acestuia, se poate identifica sursa
adecvat de finanare pentru fiecare activitate,
reducndu-se astfel costul capitalului
Corelarea duratei creditului cu durata
activului, astfel activul, prin veniturile
generate, poate suporta costurile finanarii
(can pay for itself)
49
2. FACTORI DE PRODUCTIE
Managementul factorilor de producie
Obiectiv Reducerea cheltuielilor
Amnarea plilor
Meninerea stocurilor la nivel minim
Strategie Negocierea cu principalii furnizori
pentru mbuntirea condiiilor de creditare
comercial termene mai mari de plat
Negocierea discountului pentru plata
n avans
Monitorizarea constant a stocurilor
eliminarea stocurilor n excces au a celor
expirate
Previziunea produciei pentru corecta
dimensionare a necesarului de stocuri;
mbuntirea procesului de aprovizionare
(just in time) 50
3. VANZARI
Managementul vnzrilor
Obiectiv Profitabilitatea fiecrei vnzri
Concentrarea managementului pe
vnzrile i marketingul aferente clienilor
importani
Strategie Pentru determinarea preului n
funcie de costuri, trebuie considerate toate
categoriile de costuri (inclusive cele
administrative, de finanare a capitalului de
lucru)
Dimensionarea preului trebuie s
aiba n vedere maximizarea profitului, nu a
vnzrilor
Identificarea clienilor importani
Principiul Pareto: 80% din vnzri provin de
la 20% din client 51
4. CREANTE
Managementul creanelor
Obiectiv Reducerea perioadei dintre vnzare i
ncasare
Strategie Reducerea duratei medii de ncasare
a creanelor clieni
Negocierea termenelor de plat cu
clienii importani
Negocierea instrumentelor de plat
52
CASH RULES
Profit-abilitatea
vs. cashflow-abilitatea
? Out of cash?
cresterea prea rapida a vanzarilor
Cresterea consumului de cash;
cresterea riscului investitorilor (actionari si
creditori).
53
CASH RULES
Viteza de rotatie a banilor intr-o companie
este influentata de factori sectoriali si
de deciziile managementului, astfel ca se
pot schimba dramatic intr-un termen
scurt.
In general, viteza de rotatie a banilor si
nivelul disponibilitatilor sunt mai volatile
(au o variatie mai mare) in cazul
companiilor mici.
54
CASH DRIVER
#1: CRESTEREA VANZARILOR
#2: MARJA BRUTA
#3: CH. VANZARE, GENERALE &
ADMINISTRATIVE
#4, 5, 6: CREANTE, FURNIZORI,
STOCURI
#7: INVESTITII
55
Managementul stocurilor
Managementul creantelor
Managementul furnizorilor
56
Managementul financiar al
stocurilor
CTS
CTS minim 0 cd t / 2 ( Necesar / Q 2 ) cc 0
Q
2 Necesar cc
Q EOQ
t cd
Managementul financiar al
stocurilor
EOQ t / Necesar
numrul de aprovizionri n intervalul t (anuale)
Necesar / EOQ
3500
280 2,520 500.00 3,020.00
3000 320 2,880 437.50 3,317.50
2500
costuri
1000
EOQ= 124.72 1,122.50 1,122.50
500
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
cantitate
350
numar aprovizionari 16.04
interval mediu intre aprovizionari 22.45
Managementul financiar al
stocurilor
Model stochastic de determinare a stocului de siguran
Mai realist ar fi considerarea realizrii aprovizionarii la intervale i n
cantiti variabile;
firma, urmrind continuitatea produciei, trebuie s constituie un stoc
mediu de siguran, astfel nct s nu existe situaia de lips de stocuri
n eventuala situaie n care aprovizionrile se realizeaz cu ntrziere.
t int arziare
Q i nr .zile int arziere i
Q i
Managementul financiar al
stocurilor
Determinarea numrului de zile de ntrziere se face innd cont de un
interval mediu de aprovizionare, care se calculeaz ca medie aritmetic
ponderat a intervalurilor dintre dou aprovizionri succesive:
Interval mediu de aprovizionare =unde j=1,2nr.total de aprovizionri
n perioada considerat
situatie ulterioara a b
CA 12,000,000 12,000,000
Profit 4,800,000 4,800,000
stocuri 1,666,667 1,666,667
furnizori 1,500,000 1,500,000
clienti 2,000,000 1,166,667
clienti suplimentari 333,333 333,333
clienti actuali 1,666,667 833,333
NFR 2,166,667 1,333,333
profit suplimentar 800,000 800,000
investitie suplimentara 1,472,222 638,889
profit
suplimentar/investitie 54.3% 125.2%
Managementul financiar al creantelor
Politica de creditare comercial optim depinde de caracteristicile
firmei:
gradul de utilizare a capacitii de producie dac capacitatea de
producie nu este folosit la maxim, este avantajoas creterea
vnzrilor ce s-ar obine prin relaxarea termenului de creditare,
deoarece se eficientizeaz investiia realizat n echipamente de
producie; dac firma lucreaz la ntreaga capacitate de producie,
creterea vnzrilor nu este posibil dect prin realizarea de noi
investiii;
marja de profit creterea perioadei de creditare este mai
avantajoas pentru o firm cu o marj ridicat a profitului; pe de alt
parte, prin creterea produciei realizate se asigura o mai eficient
acoperire a costurilor fixe, ceea ce va genera creterea marjei de
profit.
Managementul financiar al creantelor
IPOTEZE ian feb mar apr mai iun iul aug sep oct noi dec
rata de crestere a vanzarilor 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% -2% -2% -2% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5%
vanzari 265,300 275,912 286,948 301,296 316,361 332,179 325,535 319,024 312,644 307,954 303,335 298,785
incasarea vanzarilor30% in aceeasi luna
25% peste o luna
20% peste 2 luni
15% peste 3 luni
10% peste 4 luni 100%
Managementul financiar al creantelor
Schema de ncasri a creanelor firmei pentru CA aferent ntregului an
modificare suma
lunara ian feb mar apr mai iun iul aug sep oct noi dec
CA ian 265,300 79,590 66,325 53,060 39,795 26,530
CA feb 4% 275,912 82,774 68,978 55,182 41,387 27,591
CA mar 4% 286,948 86,085 71,737 57,390 43,042 28,695
CA apr 5% 301,296 90,389 75,324 60,259 45,194 30,130
CA mai 5% 316,361 94,908 79,090 63,272 47,454 31,636
CA iun 5% 332,179 99,654 83,045 66,436 49,827 33,218
CA iul -2% 325,535 97,661 81,384 65,107 48,830 32,554
CA aug -2% 319,024 95,707 79,756 63,805 47,854 31,902
CA sep -2% 312,644 93,793 78,161 62,529 46,897
CA oct -1.5% 307,954 92,386 76,989 61,591
CA noi -1.5% 303,335 91,000 75,834
CA dec -1.5% 298,785 89,635
Sume ncasate n fiecare lun 79,590 149,099 208,123 257,103 295,539 309,636 317,867 321,111 320,119 316,400 310,925 305,859
Sume de ncasat la sfrit de lun 185,710 312,523 391,349 435,542 456,364 478,906 486,575 484,489 477,013 468,567 460,977 453,903
PERIOADA MEDIE DE INCASARE
CA lunara 265,300 275,912 286,948 301,296 316,361 332,179 325,535 319,024 312,644 307,954 303,335 298,785
CA trimestriala 828,160 949,835 957,204 910,074
CA semestriala 1777996 1,867,278
CA anuala 3,645,274
perioada medie de incasare (calc lunar) 21.00 33.98 40.91 43.37 43.28 43.25 44.84 45.56 45.77 45.65 45.59 45.57
perioada medie de incasare (calc trimestrial) 42.53 45.38 44.85 44.89
perioada medie de incasare (calc semestrial) 48.48 43.75
perioada medie de incasare (calc anual) 44.83
Managementul financiar al creantelor
Schema vrstei creanelor-clieni pentru firma
Sume de
ncasat Perioda medie de Schema vrstei creanelor-
La sf.de CA medie zilnic ncasare la sf.de clieni
CA Din care pt.
trimestru calculat trim.pt.
pentru Grupe de varsta
1 luna 2 luni 3 luni 4 luni
30 zile 90 zile 30 zile 90 zile %din total
Ian. 265,300 66,325 39,795 26,530 0 0 8,843 44.25 91-120 7.33%
Feb. 275,912 124,160 55,182 41,387 27,591 0 9,197 42.55 61-90 18.05%
Mar. 286,948 200,864 71,737 57,390 43,042 28,695 9,565 40.91 31-60 32.02%
Total trimestru 391,349 166,715 125,306 70,633 28,695 9,202 42.53 0-30 42.60%
din trim 1 28,695 28,695
Apr. 301,296 75,324 45,194 30,130 0 0 10,043 47.68 91-120 6.94%
Mai 316,361 142,362 63,272 47,454 31,636 0 10,545 45.41 61-90 17.01%
Iun. 332,179 232,525 83,045 66,436 49,827 33,218 11,073 43.25 31-60 30.07%
Total trimestru 478,906 220,206 144,019 81,463 33,218 10,554 45.38 0-30 45.98%
din trim 2 33,218 33,218
Iul. 325,535 81,384 48,830 32,554 0 0 10,851 43.96 91-120 6.55%
Aug. 319,024 143,561 63,805 47,854 31,902 0 10,634 44.86 61-90 16.52%
Sep. 312,644 218,851 78,161 62,529 46,897 31,264 10,421 45.77 31-60 29.96%
Total trimestru 477,013 224,014 142,936 78,799 31,264 10,636 44.85 0-30 46.96%
din trim 3 31,264 31,264
Oct. 307,954 76,989 46,193 30,795 0 0 10,265 44.22 91-120 6.58%
Nov. 303,335 136,501 60,667 45,500 30,333 0 10,111 44.89 61-90 16.56%
Dec. 298,785 209,149 74,696 59,757 44,818 29,878 9,959 45.57 31-60 29.97%
Total trimestru 453,903 212,821 136,053 75,151 29,878 10,112 44.89 0-30 46.89%
n scopul atragerii de resurse financiare pe termen scurt prin intermediul plii ulterioare
a furnizorilor, firma urmrete obinerea unor termene avantajoase de plat (eventual
chiar prelungirea perioadei dintre momentul cumprrilor i momentul plilor n acele
perioade n care firma nu are disponibiliti), totodat meninndu-se bune relaii cu
furnizorii.
Prelungirea perioadei de plat nu reprezint un scop n sine de exemplu, dac
furnizorul ofer un discount pentru realizarea anticipat a plii, se poate dovedi mai
avantajoas plata imediat (pentru a beneficia de reducere) dect atragerea de resurse
temporare. n situaia n care se poate beneficia de o reducere, nerealizarea plii la
respectivul termen echivaleaz cu atragerea de resurse temporare costisitoare (cu o
dobnd implicit); decizia privind termenul de plat se va realiza n funcie de avantajul
comparativ al costurilor i beneficiilor aferente: 79
Managementul furnizorilor
80
Managementul furnizorilor
81
Managementul furnizorilor - exemplu
firma are ncheiat un contract de aprovizionare cu materii prime cu unul dintre
furnizori, n care se prevede plata la 60 de zile de la momentul livrrii. n
momentul unei noi comenzi, n valoare de 10.000.000 lei, furnizorul comunic
firmei c va aplica un discount de 3,5% dac plata se face n 15 zile.
82
Managementul furnizorilor - exemplu
Acceptare discount Neacceptare discount
(plata la 15 zile) (plata la 60 zile)
Plata furnizorului 9,650,000 10,000,000
a) investirea sumei de 9650000 lei la o
482,500
rentabilitate de 0.4 ntre ziua 15 i ziua 60
costuri nete 9,650,000 9,517,500
Plata furnizorului 9,650,000 10,000,000
b) investirea sumei de 9650000 lei la o
241,250
rentabilitate de 0.2 ntre ziua 15 i ziua 60
costuri nete 9,650,000 9,758,750
Plata furnizorului 9,650,000 10,000,000
c) contractarea unui credit in suma de
9650000 lei la o rata de dobanda de 0.1 ntre
ziua 15 i ziua 60 120,625
costuri nete 9,770,625 10,000,000
Plata furnizorului 9,650,000 10,000,000
d) contractarea unui credit in suma de
9650000 lei la o rata de dobanda de 0.35
ntre ziua 15 i ziua 60 422,188
costuri nete 10,072,188 10,000,000 83
SEMINAR 3
Analiza fluxurilor de trezorerie
TABLOUL DE FINANTARE
Resurse utilizari suplimentare pe termen lung /
scurt
87
Analiza cash flow-urilor
Studii de caz:
Companiile X, Y concurente
intocmiti tabloul de finantare si
situatia cash flow-urilor si
interpretati (evolutie, comparatie)
Compania X
89
compania Y
90
CF pe baza bilantului
94
tabloul de finantare
95
tabloul de finantare
societatea Y
Alocri N+1 N+2 N+3 Resurse N+1 N+2 N+3
cretere Imob.corp. 42 44 50 autofinanare 28 33 43
cretere Imob.financ. 2 11 1 noi credite t.lg 12 18 10
44 55 51 40 51 53
FR suplimentar -4 -4 2
cretere stocuri 13 12 6 cretere furnizori 8 16
cretere clieni 20 6 37 cretere ali creditori 11 7
cretere alte creane 3 0 scadere alte creante 1
scadere furnizori 12
scadere alti creditori 4
49 21 43 1 19 23
NFR suplimentar 48 2 20
TN suplim. -52 -6 -18
96
tabloul de finantare
societatea Y
Alocri N+1 N+2 N+3 Resurse N+1 N+2 N+3
cretere Imob.corp. 42 44 50 autofinanare 28 33 43
cretere Imob.financ. 2 11 1 noi credite t.lg 12 18 10
44 55 51 40 51 53
FR suplimentar -4 -4 2
cretere stocuri 13 12 6 cretere furnizori 8 16
cretere clieni 20 6 37 cretere ali creditori 11 7
cretere alte creane 3 0 scadere alte creante 1
scadere furnizori 12
scadere alti creditori 4
49 21 43 1 19 23
NFR suplimentar 48 2 20
TN suplim. -52 -6 -18
97
N+1 N+2 N+3 N+1 N+2 N+3
CAF 21 17 19 33 40 48
-crestere NFR 19 -3 -10 48 2 20
CF operational 2 20 29 -15 38 28
noi credite 4 4 4 12 18 10
-dividende 3 2 3 5 7 5
CF finantare 1 2 1 7 11 5
-cump.imob.corporale 7 7 6 42 44 50
-cump.imob.financiare 12 2 2 2 11 1
CF investitii -19 -9 -8 -44 -55 -51
CF total -16 13 22 -52 -6 -18
98
PROIECT
Cash Flow Statement
Cash Flow-Operating Activities
Cash Flow- Investing Activities
Cash Flow-Financing Activities
102
APPLE dinamica CF
103
Uses-Sources
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
SO URCES
USES
SHO RT TERM
- APPLE
276000 1958000 2999000 2360000 4518000
increase inventory 11000 45000 64000 105000 76000
increase receivables 201000 8000 121000 357000 385000
increase ot her receivables 276000 1593000 799000
increase ot her cur.assets 58000 539000 97000 702000
increase prepaid expenses 208000 209000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
increase short term
SO URCES
investments 1325000 2275000 2316000
LO NG TERM 128000 941000 2630000 2733000 5305000
decrease accounts payable
increase equity 128000 853000 2352000 2556000 4548000
decrease accrued expenses 6000 31000
increase long term debt 88000 278000 177000 757000
decrease long term assets
decrease short t erm debt 304000
decrease other current
USES
liabilities
LO NG TERM 328000 67000 221000 1480000 695000
SO URCES
decrease equity
SHO RT TERM 1620000 657000 1112000 4008000 2868000
decrease long term debt 310000
decrease inventory
increase long term assets 18000 67000 221000 1480000 695000
D FR
decrease receivables
-200000 874000 2409000 1253000 4610000
decrease other receivables 276000
decrease other cur.assets 59000
decrease prepaid expenses
decrease short term
investments 915000 1052000
increase accounts payable 243000 297000 328000 1611000 1580000
increase accrued expenses 94000 190000 227000
increase short term debt 304000
increase ot her current
liabilities 158000 207000 318000 1118000 1288000
D NFR -429,000 -24,000 -388,000 -596,000 -666,000
D NFR cu IF t sc -1,344,000 1,301,000 1,887,000 -1,648,000 1,650,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CF = D FR - D NFR 1,144,000 -427,000 522,000 2,901,000 2,960,000
104
Net Change in Cash 1,144,000 -427,000 522,000 2,901,000 2,960,000
D cash 1,144,000 -427,000 522,000 2,901,000 2,960,000
Uses-Sources
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SO URCES
USES
SHO RT TERM
- APPLE
5,637,000 8,994,000 8,276,000 5,172,000 11,734,000
increase inventory 163,000 596,000 15,000
increase receivables 785,000 939,000 2,149,000 5,561,000
increase ot her receivables 2,718,000 1,934,000 1,414,000
increase ot her cur.asset s 429,000 63,000 2,813,000 1,460,000 2,498,000
increase prepaid expenses 58,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 increase short term
SO URCES investments 4,202,000 7,965,000 1,778,000 2,246,000
LO NG TERM 8,743,000 11,185,000 18,466,000 33,940,000 49,121,000 decrease accounts payable
increase equity 7,765,000 9,343,000 16,151,000 28,824,000 41,595,000 decrease accrued expenses
27,000
increase long term debt 978,000 1,842,000 2,315,000 5,116,000 7,526,000
decrease short t erm debt
decrease long term assets
decrease other current
USES liabilities
LO NG TERM 2,774,000 9,781,000 17,559,000 37,878,000 47,028,000 SO URCES
decrease equity
SHO RT TERM 2,191,000 978,000 13,367,000 7,664,000 10,572,000
decrease long term debt
decrease inventory 54,000 275,000
increase long term assets 2,774,000 9,781,000 17,559,000 37,878,000 47,028,000
D FR
decrease receivables 141,000
5,969,000 1,404,000 907,000 -3,938,000 2,093,000
decrease other receivables 110,000 586,000
decrease other cur.assets
decrease prepaid expenses 166000 309000
decrease short term
investments 3,842,000
increase accounts payable 550,000 81,000 6,414,000 2,617,000 6,543,000
increase accrued expenses 548,000 300,000 835,000 855,000
increase short term debt
increase ot her current
liabilities 983,000 91,000 2,502,000 3,796,000 3,174,000
D NFR -756,000 51,000 -1,249,000 -4,270,000 -1,084,000
D NFR cu IF t sc 3,446,000 8,016,000 -5,091,000 -2,492,000 1,162,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CF = D FR - D NFR 2,523,000 -6,612,000 5,998,000 -1,446,000 931,000
105
Net Change in Cash 2,523,000 -6,612,000 5,998,000 -1,446,000 931,000
D cash 2,523,000 -6,612,000 5,998,000 -1,446,000 931,000
CF Apple comparison
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CF operational/CF 25.26% -218.74% 485.63% 76.53% 184.80%
D% CF operational 221.11% 223.18% 171.41% -12.43% 146.40%
CF operational/net profit 418.84% 351.13% 190.89% 111.61% 156.51%
CF investing/CF 72.38% 348.48% -489.66% 12.31% -109.76%
D% CF investing -428.57% -279.71% 71.77% -113.97% -1010.08%
CF financial/CF 2.36% -29.74% 104.02% 11.17% 24.97%
D% CF financial -74.29% 370.37% 327.56% -40.33% 128.09%
D% CF -2072.41% -137.33% -222.25% 455.75% 2.03%
D% FCF -248.81% 506.40% 200.13% -31.30% 186.88%
Hist Price/CF/Shr,
Hist Price/FCF/Shr,
Hist Price/OCF/Shr,
107
Hist Price/FOCF/Shr
Peers comparison
cash cycle 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple -40 -34 -29 -28 -35 -30 -31 -32 -34 -36
Hewlett-Packard 63 62 59 52 52 51 48 45 50 51
Dell -41 -41 -40 -38 -36 -33 -22 -23 -19 -18
Cisco Systems 49 51 56 55 53 48 46 58 75 77
Motorola Solutions 68 41 32 33 181 163 109 55 77 98
Intel 56 51 51 65 55 47 49 52 46 51
Nokia 35 35 29 25 29 42 46 29 29 30
Google 11 21 21 21 27 32 37 39 39 35
APPLE (rank) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
average 25 23 23 23 41 40 35 28 33 36
median 42 38 31 29 40 44 46 42 43 43
-2, 7.23, 8.78, 8.35, 11.15, 16.4, 22.25, 16.28, 17.13, 17.95,
quartile 42.2, 38.05, 30.9, 28.9, 40.2, 44.35, 46.15, 42.15, 42.7, 43.3,
57.35 50.93 52.5 52.5 53.45 48.35 48.5 52.5 55.98 57.73
q q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 q4 108
Peers comparison
Hist EV/FCF 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple 196 38 29 36 42 17 18 19 17 18
Hewlett-Packard 29 17 39 18 21 13 14 12 11 -
Dell 28 42 33 18 20 13 4 10 5 7
Cisco Systems 29 24 17 16 21 13 15 12 8 6
Motorola Solutions 19 10 5 6 64 - 11 15 - 25
Intel 29 17 25 61 34 42 56 13 28 41
Nokia 19 20 26 19 18 17 - 26 - -
Google - 257 125 75 73 24 24 27 21 18
APPLE (rank) 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 6 4 3
average 50 53 38 31 37 20 20 17 15 19
median 29 22 28 19 28 17 15 14 14 18
23.77, 17.35, 23.34, 17.78, 20.98, 12.96, 12.82, 12.04, 9.05, 9.61,
quartile 28.58, 21.77, 27.56, 18.93, 27.87, 16.82, 14.77, 14.05, 14.31, 18.21,
28.89 38.94 34.39 42.17 47.52 20.64 21.11 20.64 19.93 22.98
q q1 q2 q2 q2 q2 q2 q2 q2 q2 q3
109
Peers comparison
Hist EV/OCF 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple 12 10 14 25 22 10 14 13 9 12
Hewlett-Packard 10 10 9 8 14 7 9 9 6 4
Dell 16 22 16 13 11 9 6 5 4 5
Cisco Systems 24 19 14 12 16 9 10 10 6 4
Motorola Solutions 10 5 5 5 22 13 9 3 12 13
Intel 16 10 9 10 11 6 9 6 5 5
Nokia 10 9 13 12 12 13 10 5 9 -
Google - 50 46 37 35 10 19 14 12 11
APPLE (rank) 4 4 6 7 6 5 7 7 6 6
average 14 17 16 15 18 10 11 8 8 8
median 12 10 14 12 15 9 9 7 8 5
10.07, 9.49, 9.14, 9.76, 11.76, 8.27, 8.9, 9.48, 4.87, 5.75, 7.6, 4.52,
quartile 11.51, 9.88, 13.6, 12.16, 14.73, 9.45, 7.22, 5.05,
16.29 19.76 14.68 15.72 21.7 10.89 11.18 11.06 9.9 11.62
q q2 q3 q2 q1 q2 q2 q1 q1 q2 q1
110
Peers comparison
Hist EV/FOCF 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple 27 12 16 36 26 11 16 15 12 15
Hewlett-Packard 20 24 14 12 23 9 13 15 10 8
Dell 18 30 17 15 14 11 8 5 5 5
Cisco Systems 27 21 15 14 18 10 11 12 7 6
Motorola Solutions 15 6 6 7 - - 15 4 - 26
Intel 26 16 20 44 28 26 28 12 19 35
Nokia 16 18 30 25 18 318 27 9 - -
Google - 79 71 78 60 15 20 23 15 14
APPLE (rank) 6 2 4 6 5 3 5 6 4 5
average 21 26 24 29 27 57 17 12 11 16
median 20 19 17 20 23 11 15 12 11 14
17.09, 14.91, 14.94, 13.31, 18.03, 10.68, 12.53, 8.15, 7.99, 6.68, 14.3,
quartile 19.73, 19.35, 16.69, 19.87, 22.7, 11.08, 15.18, 11.73, 11.05,
26.15 25.74 22.12 37.83 27.44 20.37 22.01 14.74 14.33 20.6
q q1 q4 q3 q2 q2 q3 q2 q2 q2 q2
111
Peers comparison
Hist Price/CF/Shr 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple 29.75 41.55 34.73 30.25 30.51 35.90 17.66 18.60 18.15 13.65 14.01
Hewlett-Packard 33 13 10 17 13 14 8 9 7 5 -
Dell 49 27 30 31 18 17 13 6 11 7 7
Cisco Systems 23 27 24 19 16 21 14 16 14 10 8
Motorola Solutions - 11 9 7 8 17 - 13 20 14 15
Intel 13 19 12 12 12 13 8 12 7 7 6
Nokia 15 14 13 15 12 13 8 16 9 189 -
Google - - 96 69 39 42 17 25 19 18 17
APPLE (rank) 4 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4
average 27 22 29 25 19 22 12 14 13 33 11
median 26 19 18 18 15 17 13 14 12 12 11
17.18, 13.52, 11.66, 14.42, 12.34, 13.93, 8.3, 11.46, 8.77, 7.07, 7.53,
quartile 26.31, 19.39, 18.44, 18, 14.64, 17.43, 12.87, 14.4, 12.42, 11.78, 10.99,
32.14 27.19 31.27 30.56 21.08 24.54 15.6 16.83 18.46 15.23 14.94
q q2 q1 q1 q2 q1 q1 q1 q1 q2 q2 q2
112
Peers comparison
Hist EV/FOCF 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple 27 12 16 36 26 11 16 15 12 15
Hewlett-Packard 20 24 14 12 23 9 13 15 10 8
Dell 18 30 17 15 14 11 8 5 5 5
Cisco Systems 27 21 15 14 18 10 11 12 7 6
Motorola Solutions 15 6 6 7 - - 15 4 - 26
Intel 26 16 20 44 28 26 28 12 19 35
Nokia 16 18 30 25 18 318 27 9 - -
Google - 79 71 78 60 15 20 23 15 14
APPLE (rank) 6 2 4 6 5 3 5 6 4 5
average 21 26 24 29 27 57 17 12 11 16
median 20 19 17 20 23 11 15 12 11 14
17.09, 14.91, 14.94, 13.31, 18.03, 10.68, 12.53, 8.15, 7.99, 6.68, 14.3,
quartile 19.73, 19.35, 16.69, 19.87, 22.7, 11.08, 15.18, 11.73, 11.05,
26.15 25.74 22.12 37.83 27.44 20.37 22.01 14.74 14.33 20.6
q q1 q4 q3 q2 q2 q3 q2 q2 q2 q2
113
Peers comparison
Hist Price/CF/Shr 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple 29.75 41.55 34.73 30.25 30.51 35.90 17.66 18.60 18.15 13.65 14.01
Hewlett-Packard 33 13 10 17 13 14 8 9 7 5 -
Dell 49 27 30 31 18 17 13 6 11 7 7
Cisco Systems 23 27 24 19 16 21 14 16 14 10 8
Motorola Solutions - 11 9 7 8 17 - 13 20 14 15
Intel 13 19 12 12 12 13 8 12 7 7 6
Nokia 15 14 13 15 12 13 8 16 9 189 -
Google - - 96 69 39 42 17 25 19 18 17
APPLE (rank) 4 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4
average 27 22 29 25 19 22 12 14 13 33 11
median 26 19 18 18 15 17 13 14 12 12 11
17.18, 13.52, 11.66, 14.42, 12.34, 13.93, 8.3, 11.46, 8.77, 7.07, 7.53,
quartile 26.31, 19.39, 18.44, 18, 14.64, 17.43, 12.87, 14.4, 12.42, 11.78, 10.99,
32.14 27.19 31.27 30.56 21.08 24.54 15.6 16.83 18.46 15.23 14.94
q q2 q1 q1 q2 q1 q1 q1 q1 q2 q2 q2
114
Peers comparison
Hist Price/OCF/Shr 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple 59.17 26.02 15.47 17.98 30.43 24.95 12.06 16.28 14.54 10.09 12.40
Hewlett-Packard 7 11 11 10 10 15 7 9 8 4 3
Dell 19 18 24 18 15 13 12 10 6 6 6
Cisco Systems 13 26 21 17 14 18 11 13 13 9 7
Motorola Solutions 11 10 6 7 9 28 21 15 6 17 16
Intel 12 18 12 10 11 13 7 10 7 6 6
Nokia 12 12 12 16 14 13 13 10 6 12 -
Google - - 54 49 40 38 12 21 17 15 14
APPLE (rank) 7 7 5 6 7 6 5 7 7 5 5
average 19 17 19 18 18 20 12 13 10 10 9
median 12 18 14 17 14 16 12 12 8 9 7
11.85, 11.54, 10.33, 10.83, 13.4, 10.44, 10.16, 6.48, 7.74, 6.42, 9.45, 5.72, 7.38,
quartile 17.83, 13.89, 16.51, 14.24, 16.28, 11.82, 11.61,
11.45, 12.48, 16.3
21.97 21.87 18.02 18.92 25.72 12.61 15.35 13.58 12.86 13.27
q q1 q1 q2 q2 q1 q2 q2 q1 q1 q2 q2
115
Peers comparison
Hist Price/FOCF/Shr 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Apple - 60.16 19.06 20.04 43.22 30.44 13.78 18.49 16.41 12.59 16.18
Hewlett-Packard 13 22 29 16 14 25 9 13 14 8 5
Dell 21 20 32 20 18 17 15 13 7 7 7
Cisco Systems 22 30 23 18 16 21 13 14 15 11 10
Motorola Solut ions 36 15 7 9 13 - - 23 7 - 31
Intel 28 28 19 22 49 32 31 32 15 22 39
Nokia 20 20 23 36 29 20 325 29 11 - -
Google - - 85 75 85 65 18 23 27 19 18
APPLE (rank) #VALUE! 7 3 5 6 5 3 4 7 4 4
average 24 28 30 27 33 30 61 21 14 13 18
median 22 22 23 20 24 25 15 21 14 12 16
19.88, 18.92, 17.8, 15.42, 20.18, 13.28, 14.05, 10.16, 8.54, 8.15,
quart ile 22.15, 23.34, 19.95, 23.68, 24.5, 14.67, 20.89, 14.47, 11.68, 16.18,
20.27, 21.61, 26.93
29.13 29.58 25.58 44.55 31.08 24.39 24.85 15.26 17.39 24.52
q q1 q1 q3 q2 q2 q2 q3 q3 q1 q2 q2
116
CF - peers
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
cash cycle -40.40 -34.10 -29.10 -28.10 -34.90 -29.80 -30.60 -32.30 -33.70 -35.60
Hist EV/FCF 195.62 38.05 29.00 35.79 42.08 17.15 18.31 18.95 17.24 18.04
Hist EV/OCF 11.51 9.78 14.27 25.10 21.66 9.57 13.84 13.02 9.32 11.75
Hist EV/FOCF 26.60 12.05 15.90 35.65 26.43 10.93 15.72 14.70 11.63 15.33
Hist Price/CF/Shr 41.55 34.73 30.25 30.51 35.90 17.66 18.60 18.15 13.65 14.01
Hist Price/FCF/Shr 442.36 60.19 36.56 43.39 48.47 21.61 21.54 21.16 18.67 19.04
Hist Price/OCF/Shr 26.02 15.47 17.98 30.43 24.95 12.06 16.28 14.54 10.09 12.40
Hist Price/FOCF/Shr 60.16 19.06 20.04 43.22 30.44 13.78 18.49 16.41 12.59 16.18
90.00
70.00
cash cycle
50.00
Hist EV/FCF
Hist EV/OCF
30.00 Hist EV/FOCF
Hist Price/CF/Shr
Hist Price/FCF/Shr
10.00
Hist Price/OCF/Shr
Hist Price/FOCF/Shr
1991
2011
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2010
2012
2001
-10.00
-30.00
-50.00
118
Teme / sugestii / recomandari
PROIECT analiza pe baza situatiei fluxurilor de
trezorerie
http://www.ssrn.com/en/
Recomandare carte Kahneman Thinking, Fast and Slow ,
William Hewlett:
Construirea ratelor
Analistul trebuie sa defineasca:
ipostaza
(1. manager, 2. actionar, 3. creditor)
obiectivele analizei
standarde potentiale de comparare
1
1. pdv al managerului 1.1. Manager - Eficienta
Managerul responsabil de: activitatii operationale
- eficienta activitatii operationale rate de marj (margin)
- angajarea efectiva a capitalului fizic si Reprezinta raportul dintre marja (diferenta dintre
anumite categorii de venituri si cheltuieli) si anumite
uman, a altor resurse venituri (de regula, cifra de afaceri)
- rezultatele curente si pe termen lung = marja (u.m.) / CA
Rata de marja bruta = (CA-cost bunuri vandute)/CA
Rata de marja a profitului = PN/CA
Interesul analizei performantei:
Rata de marja a EBIT = EBIT/CA
eficienta activitatii operationale Rata de marja a NOPAT = NOPAT/CA
(cont) 1.1.
eficienta utilizarii resurselor ???? Alte rate de marja?
(bilant si cont) 1.2.
Rate de marja US 2015 sursa Damodaran Rate de marja 2015 Europa sursa Damodaran
Pre-tax Operating Pre-tax Operating
Industry Name Net Margin Margin Industry Name Net Margin Margin Pre-tax Operating Pre-tax Operating
Insurance (Prop/Cas.) 9.09% 14.72% Industry Name Net Margin Margin Industry Name Net Margin Margin
Retail (General) 2.44% 4.81%
Inves tments & Asset Management 17.80% 19.64% Retail (Grocery and Food) 1.97% 2.90% Advertising 8.10% 13.82% Drugs (Pharmac eutical) 19.07% 20.93%
Machinery 6.58% 12.83% Retail (Online) 3.01% 4.26% Aerospace/Defense 2.43% 7.12% Education 0.51% 6.13%
Metals & Mining -19.36% 11.13% Retail (Special Lines) 4.09% 6.52% Air Transport 6.07% 8.25% Elec tric al Equipment 1.31% 7.97%
Office Equipment & Services 5.64% 10.60% Rubber& Tires 15.40% 11.01% Apparel 10.27% 16.46% Elec tronic s (Consumer & Offic e) 7.01% 9.81%
Oil/Gas (Integrated) 5.34% 3.30% Semiconductor 14.41% 20.11% Auto & Truck 4.29% 6.85% Elec tronic s (General) 11.83% 13.13%
Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration)
-54.71% -12.31% Semiconductor Equip 5.29% 12.93% Auto Parts 4.93% 8.40% Engineering/Construc tion 1.74% 4.08%
Oil/Gas Distribution 3.53% 10.11% Shipbuilding & Marine 23.38% 9.92% Bank (Money Center) 13.97% NA Entertainment 18.84% 6.30%
Oilfield Svcs/Equip. 2.76% 7.00% Shoe 9.97% 12.56% Banks (Regional) 25.45% NA Environmental & Waste Servic es -7.55% -0.49%
Packaging & Container 3.91% 10.08% Software (Entertainment) 13.08% 18.70%
Beverage (Alc oholic) 12.59% 22.16% Farming/Agric ulture 1.70% 6.43%
Paper/Forest Products 1.82% 8.23% Software (Internet) 12.52% 17.25%
Power 7.90% 18.17%
Beverage (Soft) 4.49% 8.57% -10.18%
Financial Svc s. (Non- bank & Insuranc e) 5.58%
Software (System & Application) 11.84% 23.63%
Precious Metals -7.89% 21.84% Steel -4.63% -5.08% Broadc asting 10.27% 16.89% Food Proc essing 8.31% 10.62%
Publs hing & Newspapers 2.52% 8.22% Telecom (Wireless) -1.79% 2.69% Brokerage & Investment Banking 4.21% 0.52% Food Wholesalers 0.62% 3.37%
R.E.I.T. 19.93% 22.19% Telecom. Equipment 12.53% 19.31% Building Materials 3.54% 8.11% Furn/Home Furnishings 3.95% 6.87%
Real Estate (Development) -3.05% -2.98% Telecom. Services 5.18% 13.09% Business & Consumer Servic es 3.20% 7.08% Green & Renewable Energy 5.72% 29.50%
Real Estate (General/Divers ified) 5.45% 14.89% Tobacco 24.89% 38.41% Cable TV 5.90% 14.60% Healthc are Produc ts 7.71% 17.55%
Real Estate (Operations & Services)5.68% 10.49% Transportation 4.05% 8.79% Chemic al (Basic ) 9.61% 13.41% Healthc are Support Servic es 2.08% 8.73%
Recreation 4.57% 11.74% Transportation (Railroads) 18.88% 32.99% Chemic al (Diversified) 5.84% 8.55% 4.85%
Heathc are Information and Tec hnology 10.56%
Reins urance 6.51% 11.41% Trucking 4.19% 10.13% Chemic al (Spec ialty) 7.77% 10.31% Homebuilding 13.53% 17.33%
Restaurant/Dining 8.99% 13.70% Unclassified 1.73% -17.02%
Coal & Related Energy 1.04% 6.80% Hospitals/Healthcare Fac ilities 3.82% 8.42%
Retail (Automotive) 3.43% 5.76% Utility (General) 8.17% 18.08%
Computer Servic es 3.94% 7.30% Hotel/Gaming 3.40% 8.50%
Retail (Building Supply) 6.65% 10.67% Utility (Water) 15.18% 31.08%
Computers/Peripherals 7.12% 7.78% Household Products 14.16% 15.95%
Retail (Distributors) 3.84% 8.84% Total Market 6.40% 10.62%
Construc tion Supplies 3.92% 7.21% Information Servic es 7.61% 15.14%
Diversified 5.88% 8.15% Insuranc e (General) 4.67% 7.28%
Drugs (Biotec hnology) -2.63% 3.66% Insuranc e (Life) 4.14% 6.49%
2
Rate de marja Europa 2015 sursa Damodaran
Industry Name Net Margin
Pre-tax Operating
Margin Industry Name Net Margin
Pre-tax Operating
Margin
Manager - Eficienta
Oil/Gas Distribution
Oilfield Svc s/Equip.
9.74%
0.02%
17.87%
6.56%
Shipbuilding & Marine
Shoe
3.95%
4.70%
9.13%
6.80% activitatii operationale
Pac kaging & Container 4.72% 8.45% Software (Entertainment) 9.99% 12.09%
Paper/Forest Produc ts 4.68% 7.96% Software (Internet) 6.69% 12.22% Ponderea cheltuielilor in CA
Power 5.76% 11.80% Software (System & Applic ation) 12.30% 20.55%
Prec ious Metals -8.89% 3.89% Steel -1.13% 3.81% Reprezinta raportul dintre diferite categorii de
Publshing & Newspapers 8.77% 8.69% Telec om (Wireless) -0.89% 6.80% cheltuieli si cifra de afaceri
R.E.I.T. 94.69% 56.53% Telec om. Equipment 4.13% 8.75%
Real Estate (Development) 16.93% 18.66% Telec om. Services 5.18% 13.66% Rata cheltuielilor (expense ratio) = cheltuieli/CA
Real Estate (General/Diversified) 12.21% 13.82% Tobac c o 15.11% 19.12%
Real Estate (Operations & Servic es)53.52% 43.23% Transportation 4.51% 5.98%
Rec reation 4.31% 8.67% Transportation (Railroads) 4.47% 10.61%
Reinsurance 7.08% 9.64% Truc king 2.49% 5.97% Rata ch.exploatare = ch.exploatare/CA
Restaurant/Dining 4.23% 8.80% Unc lassified 77.74% 78.63%
Retail (Automotive) 1.89% 2.82% Utility (General) -0.39% 7.10% Rata ch.personal = ch.personal/CA
Retail (Building Supply) 4.34% 5.30% Utility (Water) 11.40% 25.89%
Retail (Distributors) 2.88% 6.52% Total Market 4.75% 8.23% Rata ch.variabile = CV/CA
Retail (General) 1.53% 3.56%
Retail (Groc ery and Food) -1.62% 2.63%
Retail (Online) -0.62% 1.14%
Retail (Special Lines) 6.19% 9.47% ???? Alte rate de cheltuieli?
Rubber& Tires 6.60% 11.00%
Semic onduc tor 7.52% 11.55%
Semic onduc tor Equip 16.49% 17.34%
3
Rate de rotatie - FIRMA Rotatia WC US 2015 sursa Damodaran
Acc Rec/ Inventory Acc Pay/ Non-cash
valoare vite za de durata de Industry Name Sales /Sales Sales WC/ Sales
N-1 N me die rotatie rotatie Advertising 46.16% 5.08% 50.73% -0.54%
active imobilizate 1360 1840 1600 0.9 420 Aerospace/Defense 16.20% 21.50% 8.89% 27.61%
active circulante 576 804 690 2.0 181
Air Transport 4.07% 2.25% 5.14% 3.48%
stocuri de materii prime 120 160 140 9.8 37
Apparel 12.35% 19.59% 6.38% 27.82%
stocuri de produse finite 80 140 110 12.5 29
creante comerciale 200 250 225 6.1 59 Auto & Truck 3.60% 8.33% 15.26% -1.35%
alte creante 20 30 25 54.8 7 Auto Parts 15.35% 7.95% 12.89% 10.10%
active de trezorerie 156 224 190 7.2 50 Bank (Money Center) 0.00% 0.92% NA NA
activ 1936 2644 2290 0.6 602 Banks (Regional) 0.00% 3.37% NA NA
datorii ce trebuie platite intr- Beverage (Alcoholic) 14.30% 22.56% 15.01% 24.56%
o perioada mai mica de un Beverage (Soft) 11.17% 5.47% 18.23% 1.02%
an 276 360 318 4.3 84 Broadcasting 19.81% 2.72% 3.58% 20.47%
datorii comerciale 222 280 251 5.5 66
Brokerage & Investment Banking147.21% 0.03% NA NA
alte datorii 54 80 67 20.4 18
Building Materials 13.46% 12.04% 9.81% 16.92%
datorii ce trebuie platite intr-
o perioada mai mare de un Business & Consumer Services 18.08% 1.84% 6.37% 15.68%
an 450 760 605 2.3 159 Drugs (Pharmaceutical) 17.77% 13.49% 7.05% 25.28%
capital propriu 1210 1524 1367 1.0 359 Total Market 47.71% 7.85% 74.78% -17.28%
4
2.2. Actionari politica de dividend 2.3. Actionari valoarea de piata
DPS (dividend per share) = dividende/nr.actiuni PER (price earnings ratio) = curs/EPS
DY (dividend yield) = DPS/curs mediu MBR (market to book ratio) = curs/VBPS
d = (Payout ratio) = DPS/EPS Relative price movements
Dividend to assets = dividende/Active Firm value = valoarea (CPR+Dat) = V(CPR)+V(Dat)
V(CPR) = V(firma) V(Dat)
5
Rentabilitate, indatorare Europa sursa Damodaran
Industry Name D/E Ratio ROE ROIC
Advert ising 35.05% 11.65% 41.60%
Aerospace/Defense 26.74% 6.93% 11.84%
Air T ransport 71.32% 24.04% 10.25%
Apparel 23.05% 14.19% 16.70%
Auto & Truc k 113.95% 12.87% 5.96%
Auto Parts 23.27% 19.69% 15.03%
Bank (Money Center) 659.01% 4.14% 0.00%
Banks (Regional) 296.94% 5.15% 0.00%
Beverage (Alc oholic) 26.53% 12.63% 10.52%
Beverage (Soft) 30.80% 10.25% 9.89%
Broadcasting 15.31% 18.49% 25.49%
Brokerage & Investment Banking 163.74% 8.05% 0.33%
Building Materials 30.33% 6.72% 11.73%
Business & Consumer Services 31.93% 13.82% 26.25%
Drugs (Pharmaceutic al) 16.98% 21.99% 14.93%
Total Market 114.89% 6.83% 4.04%
rate de marj
rate de rotaie
rate de structur a capitalurilor
Efect Re zultat
Re ntabilitat e
Efort Capital investit
Re zultat CA Activ
CA
Activ
Capital investit
rata de marja viteza de rotatie rata de structura
6
ROE - Firma
ROE
FIRMA
PN PN CA Activ N A B C
RCPR R fin ROE
CPR CA Activ CPR CA 1370
rata de marja viteza de rotatie a activelor rata de indatorare PN 672
Active 1936
Factori de influenta:
CPR 1210
1. Marja de profit masoara performanta financiara a companiei PN/CA 49.05% 34.71% 69.42% 65.18%
2. Viteza de rotatie a activelor vanzarile generate de fiecare leu CA/Active 0.71 1 0.5 0.71
investit in active masoara managementul activelor - performanta de Active/CPR 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2
utilizare a activelor resursele necesare pentru a sustine vanzarile
3. Rata de indatorare masoara managementul pasivelor, al datoriilor
capitalul propriu utilizat pentru finantarea activelor; natura activitatii
firmei si activele acesteia influenteaza levierul in general, afaceri
caracterizate prin CF de exploatare stabil si predictibil pot obtine in
conditii de siguranta credite suplimentare; ROA si levierul tind sa fie
invers corelate
ROE
ROE
ROE pentru 10 companii din diverse ramuri, 2004
RO E PN/CA CA/Active Active/CPR
Bank of America 14,48% 21,60% 0,06 11,17
PN Chevron Texaco 29,31% 9,30% 1,53 2,06
RCPR R fin ROE eBay 11,61% 23,80% 0,41 1,19
CPR Florida Power and Light 11,69% 8,40% 0,37 3,76
PN EBT EBIT CA Activ Genentech 11,58% 17% 0,49 1,39
Harley-Davidson 27,54% 16,70% 0,97 1,7
EBT EBIT CA
Activ CPR
Merck 33,55% 24,80% 0,55 2,46
impozitare finantare profit exp loatare rotatie indatorare Netflix 13,92% 4,30% 2,01 1,61
Norfolk Southern 11,72% 12,60% 0,3 3,1
Whole Foods Market 13,69% 3,50% 2,54 1,54
Higgins, R. (2007) "Analysis for Financial Management", McGraw Hill Companies
7
Analiza financiara ROE factori de ROA
influenta - exemplu
ROE previzionat N+1 PN PN CA
ROA
valoare medie 26.02% Active CA Active
valoare medie ponderata 28.25%
valoare maxima 32.86%
rata de marja viteza de rotatie a activelor
valoare minima 20.00% FIRMA
valoare optimizata 37.85% N
PN/CA 11.50% CA 1370
CA/Activ 2.40 PN 672
Active 1936
Pasiv/CPR 1.37 -Masura a eficientei de alocare
CPR 1210 si de management a resurselor
PN/CA 49.05% -Valori mari ale ratei de marja si
CA/Active 0.71 ROA ar fi cazul ideal dar
Active/CPR 1.6 atrage concurenta!!!
ROE 55.54%
ROA 34.71%
ROIC 44.53%
8
Analiza financiara rate de
Rate de rentabilitate rentabilitate
Efectul de levier:
firma firma firma firma firma firma
neindatorat indatorata indatorata indatorata indatorata indatorata
40% 40% 70% 70% 70%
AE 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
DAT financiare
R fin R ec ( R ec R dob ) CPR 10000 6000 6000 3000 3000 3000
CPR
DAT 0 4000 4000 7000 7000 7000
rata dobanzii 10% 35% 10% 35% 45%
levier EBIT 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
efect de levier
dobanzi 0 400 1400 700 2450 3150
EBT 3000 2600 1600 2300 550 -150
Daca rentabilitatea economica > (<) rata dobanzii, apare efectul impozit pe profit 480 416 256 368 88 -24
de levier pozitiv (negativ), astfel ca rentabilitatea PN 2520 2184 1344 1932 462 -126
actionarilor devine superioara (inferioara) rentabilitatii EBIT-impozit 2520 2584 2744 2632 2912 3024
firmei.
Rec 25% 26% 27% 26% 29% 30%
Rfin 25% 36% 22% 64% 15% -4%
efect de levier 0% 11% -5% 38% -14% -34%
9
Performanta in valori de piata EVA US 2015 sursa Damodaran
(ROC - BV of
Industry Name ROIC WACC WACC) Capital EVA
EVA (economic value added) Advertising 59.68% 6.57% 53.11% 5,372 2,853
Aerospace/Defense 30.15% 8.86% 21.29% 150,956 32,136
Masoara eficienta manageriala intr-un an Air Transport 18.57% 6.81% 11.76% 111,793 13,144
Performanta indiferent de indatorare: NOPAT Apparel 15.99% 7.26% 8.73% 41,387 3,613
NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) Auto & Truck 5.06% 4.70% 0.37% 262,771 969
Auto Parts 18.38% 8.11% 10.27% 45,723 4,697
= EBIT(1-) Bank (Money Center) -0.01% 4.27% -4.28% 2,575,601 -110,235
Profitabilitatea investitiei: ROIC Banks (Regional) -0.02% 3.92% -3.94% 560,522 -22,093
ROIC (return on invested capital) Beverage (Alcoholic) 15.85% 7.05% 8.80% 18,985 1,670
Beverage (Soft) 22.42% 7.92% 14.50% 99,778 14,470
= NOPAT/capital investit Broadcasting 19.38% 6.17% 13.21% 48,073 6,348
EVA =NOPAT-costul net al capitalului Brokerage & Investment Banking 0.00% 4.25% -4.25% 720,333 -30,607
=capital investit*ROIC capital investit*WACC Building Materials 15.91% 7.54% 8.37% 24,316 2,036
Business & Consumer Services 22.41% 7.58% 14.83% 50,252 7,452
Drugs (Pharmaceutical) 15.19% 7.72% 7.47% 330,173 24,664
Total Market 6.55% 6.29% 0.27% 21,264,667 56,445
10
1. Manager
Manager - Profitabilitate
rate de marj (margin) = marja (u.m.) / CA ROA (RONA) = PN/Active
Rata de marja bruta = (CA-cost bunuri vandute)/CA ROA before interest = (PN+Dobanzi)/Active
Rata de marja a profitului = PN/CA
ROA before interest and taxes = EBIT/Active
Rata de marja a EBIT = EBIT/CA
Rata de marja a NOPAT = NOPAT/CA
Ponderea cheltuielilor in CA: PN PN CA
Rata cheltuielilor (expense ratio) = cheltuieli/CA
ROA
Active CA Active
Rata ch.exploatare = ch.exploatare/CA
Rata ch.personal = ch.personal/CA
PN EBT EBIT CA
Rata ch.variabile = CV/CA EBT EBIT CA Active
Eficienta utilizarii activelor
Viteza de rotatie (asset turnover) = CA/active (sales to assets)
Durata de rotatie a activelor = (active/CA)x360
2. Actionari 3. creditori
rentabilitatea investitiei
Lichiditatea
ROE (return on equity) = PN/CPR
EPS (earnings per share) = PN/nr.actiuni generala (current ratio) = A.crt/P.crt
CFPS (cashflow per share) = (PN+Amortizare)/nr.actiuni partiala (acid test) = (A.crt-Stocuri)/P.crt
SPA (share price apreciation) la vedere (cash ratio) = A.tz/P.crt.
TSR (total shareholder return) = RIR pentru actiune Levier financiar
politica de dividend
grad indatorare (debt to assets) = Datorii/Activ
DPS (dividend per share) = dividende/nr.actiuni
DY (dividend yield) = DPS/curs mediu grad indatorare pe termen lung
d = (Payout ratio) = DPS/EPS Levier=datorii termen lung/CPR
Dividend to assets = dividende/Active Debt to equity = datorii/CPR
valoarea de piata
Serviciul datoriei
PER (price earnings ratio) = curs/EPS
interest coverage = EBIT/dobanzi
MBR (market to book ratio) = curs/VBPS
Relative price movements burden coverage = EBIT/(dobanzi+rata) sau =EBIT(1-t) / (rata
Firm value = valoarea (CPR+Dat) = V(CPR)+V(Dat) + dobanzi(1-t))
RENTABILITATE FACTORI
DETERMINANTI SI CORELATII
11
Rate de rentabilitate Corelatii - rentabilitati
Rentabilitatea aferenta activului economic
PN P P
ROE ROA
CPR DAT financiare Active CPR CPR
R AE R ec R fin R dob
AE AE
PN Dobanzi EBIT impozit pe profit
DAT
CPR DAT financiare AE ROE R ec (R ec R dob )
CPR
ROIC EBIT(1- t)/AE
DAT
ROE ROIC ( ROIC R dob (1 ))
CPR
Rd DATfin
R ec ROIC
AE
A B C D E F G H I
activ
A B C D E F G H I
10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Empiric - constatari
activ economic 6,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 6,000 6,000
indatorare termen scurt 40% 30% 30% 30% 50% 50% 50% 40% 40%
levier 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1
rata dobanda 10% 20% 30% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
A B C D E F G H I
CPR 6,000 5,833 5,833 5,833 4,167 3,846 3,571 3,750 3,000
DAT fin 0 1,167 1,167 1,167 833 1,154 1,429 2,250 3,000
Dat curente 4,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000
Dat totale 4,000 4,167 4,167 4,167 5,833 6,154 6,429 6,250 7,000
A B C D E F G H I
EBIT 1,000 1,200 1,200 1,200 900 900 900 1,000 1,000
dobanzi 0 117 233 350 83 115 143 225 300
EBT 1,000 1,083 967 850 817 785 757 775 700
impozit 160 173 155 136 131 126 121 124 112
PN 840 910 812 714 686 659 636 651 588
EBIT-impozit 840 1027 1045 1064 769 774 779 876 888
EBIT(1-t) 840 1008 1008 1008 756 756 756 840 840
A B C D E F G H I
ROE 14.00% 15.60% 13.92% 12.24% 16.46% 17.14% 17.81% 17.36% 19.60%
ROA 8.40% 9.10% 8.12% 7.14% 6.86% 6.59% 6.36% 6.51% 5.88%
Rec 14.00% 14.67% 14.93% 15.20% 15.39% 15.49% 15.58% 14.60% 14.80%
71 72
ROIC 14.00% 14.40% 14.40% 14.40% 15.12% 15.12% 15.12% 14.00% 14.00%
Rdob(1-t) 8.40% 16.80% 25.20% 8.40% 8.40% 8.40% 8.40% 8.40%
12
Studiu de caz Apple peers Studiu de caz Apple peers
competitors competitors
RATE DE RENTABILITATE - Ratios - Key Metrics RATE DE RENTABILITATE
Profitability: MetricsRatios - Profit/Value/Risk
Gross Margin, EBITDA Margin, Operating Margin, Pretax Profitability/Return
Margin, Effective Tax Rate, Net Margin Sales/Receivables, Revenue/Inventory, Revenue/Wk Cap,
DuPont/Earning Power: Revenue/Tot Assets, EBITDA/Comm Shr Eqty,
Asset Turnoverx Pretax Margin=Pretax ROAx Leverage EBITDA/Tot Eqty, EBITDA/Tot Assets, ROFA Fixed
(Assets/Equity)= Pretax ROExTax Complement=ROEx Assets, ROE Comm Eqty, ROA Tot Assets, Reinvestment
Earnings Retention=Reinvestment Rate, Rate
Times Interest Earned Value
Operating: A/R Turnover, Avg. A/R Days, Inv Turnover, Hist Mkt Cap, %Prd/Prd, Hist EV, %Prd/Prd, Hist
Avg. Inventory Days, Avg. A/P Days, Fixed Asset EV/Revenue, Hist EV/EBITDA, Hist EV/FCF, Hist
Turnover, WC / Sales Growth, ROIC, Revenue per EV/OCF, Hist EV/FOCF, Hist Price/Rev/Shr, Hist
Employee 73 Price/EBITDA/Shr, Hist P/E, Hist Price/CF/Shr, Hist74
Price/FCF/Shr, Hist Price/OCF/Shr, Hist
Price/FOCF/Shr, Hist Price/Comm Eqty, Hist Price/Bk,
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EFICIENTA ACTIVITATII OPERATIONALE
RATE DE MARJA
Gross Profit 27.52% 27.26% 29.01% 28.98% 33.17% 35.20% 40.14% 39.38% 40.48% 43.87%
Operati ng profi t -0.02% 3.78% 11.79% 12.70% 17.93% 22.21% 27.36% 28.19% 31.22% 35.30%
EBT 1.48% 4.47% 12.98% 14.59% 20.37% 23.86% 28.12% 28.42% 31.60% 35.63%
Net profit 1.10% 3.21% 9.53% 10.30% 14.22% 16.32% 19.19% 21.48% 23.95% 26.67%
EBIT 0.40% 4.06% 11.79% 12.70% 17.93% 22.21% 27.36% 28.19% 31.22% 35.30%
EBITDA 2.22% 5.87% 13.08% 13.86% 19.18% 23.37% 28.90% 29.54% 32.89% 37.39%
i mpozi tare 26.09% 28.11% 26.55% 29.42% 30.18% 31.61% 31.75% 24.42% 24.22% 25.16%
EBIT(1-t) 0.30% 2.92% 8.66% 8.96% 12.52% 15.19% 18.67% 21.30% 23.66% 26.42%
75 76
Gross Margin 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
APPLE 27.5% 27.3% 29.0% 29.0% 33.2% 35.2% 40.1% 39.4% 40.5% 43.9%
HP 25.8% 23.5% 23.0% 24.0% 24.1% 24.0% 23.4% 23.7% 23.2% 22.9%
DELL 17.9% 18.2% 18.4% 17.7% 16.6% 19.1% 17.9% 17.5% 18.5% 22.3%
CSCO 70.1% 68.6% 67.2% 65.8% 63.7% 64.1% 63.9% 64.0% 61.5% 61.2%
MSI 81.2% 82.1% 84.8% 82.7% 79.1% 80.8% 79.2% 80.2% 77.7% 76.2%
INT 56.7% 57.7% 59.4% 51.5% 51.9% 55.5% 55.7% 65.3% 62.5% 62.1%
NOK 41.5% 38.1% 35.0% 32.5% 33.8% 34.3% 32.4% 30.2% 29.3% 27.8%
GOOG 57.3% 53.9% 58.0% 60.2% 59.9% 60.4% 62.6% 64.5% 65.2% 59.1%
rank 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5
q1 27.1% 26.4% 27.5% 27.8% 30.9% 31.7% 30.2% 28.6% 27.8% 26.6%
q2 49.1% 46.0% 46.5% 42.0% 42.9% 45.4% 47.9% 51.7% 51.0% 51.5%
q3 60.5% 60.4% 61.4% 61.6% 60.9% 61.3% 62.9% 64.7% 63.2% 61.4%
77 78
13
EBITDA margin - peers EBITDA margin - peers
EBITDA Margin 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
APPLE 2.2% 5.9% 13.1% 13.9% 19.2% 23.4% 28.9% 29.5% 32.9% 37.4%
HP 9.0% 8.6% 8.4% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.8% 14.1% 13.7% 12.0%
DELL 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 8.6% 6.2% 6.8% 6.9% 6.8% 7.8% 9.2%
CSCO 33.6% 34.0% 34.1% 29.6% 29.0% 28.3% 25.6% 28.7% 26.7% 28.6%
MSI 36.2% 33.9% 44.6% 42.4% 38.9% 40.0% 39.3% 42.8% 42.8% 41.7%
INT 43.9% 43.9% 43.0% 31.4% 35.3% 38.0% 31.3% 46.4% 44.0% 41.5%
NOK 20.6% 17.7% 15.7% 15.5% 18.3% 14.0% 10.0% 9.4% 6.3% -3.2%
GOOG 26.8% 31.0% 39.1% 38.8% 36.5% 37.3% 41.5% 40.1% 37.1% 32.3%
rank 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3
0.09 0.09 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11
0.24 0.24 0.25 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.30
0.34 0.34 0.40 0.33 0.36 0.37 0.33 0.41 0.39 0.38
79 80
0.07 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.03
0.20 0.17 0.22 0.15 0.19 0.21 0.18 0.26 0.24 0.24
0.25 0.25 0.31 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.29 0.35 0.31 0.28
81 82
7.4% 8.1% 12.0% 12.5% 14.4% 9.6% 7.5% 7.6% 6.7% 2.9%
20.9% 18.2% 23.5% 17.3% 22.2% 22.2% 18.8% 26.0% 24.9% 24.4%
25.2% 30.8% 33.1% 29.6% 28.9% 26.2% 29.6% 36.8% 32.6% 28.5%
83 84
14
Net margin - peers Net margin - peers
Net Margin 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
APPLE 1.1% 3.2% 9.5% 10.3% 14.2% 16.3% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 26.7%
HP 3.5% 4.4% 2.8% 6.8% 7.0% 7.0% 6.7% 7.0% 5.6% -10.5%
DELL 6.0% 6.4% 6.1% 6.5% 4.5% 4.8% 4.1% 2.7% 4.3% 5.6%
CSCO 19.0% 22.5% 23.1% 19.6% 21.0% 20.4% 17.0% 19.4% 15.0% 17.5%
MSI 23.4% 22.2% 30.8% 28.5% 27.5% 29.3% 24.9% 30.0% 33.1% 23.0%
INT 18.7% 22.0% 22.3% 14.3% 18.2% 14.1% 12.4% 26.3% 24.0% 20.6%
NOK 12.4% 11.1% 10.8% 10.6% 13.2% 7.7% 0.6% 3.2% -3.8% -12.5%
GOOG 7.2% 12.5% 23.9% 29.0% 25.3% 19.4% 27.6% 29.0% 25.7% 21.5%
rank 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 1
q1 5.4% 5.9% 8.7% 9.4% 11.7% 7.5% 6.1% 6.1% 5.3% 1.6%
q2 9.8% 11.8% 16.6% 12.5% 16.2% 15.2% 14.7% 20.5% 19.5% 19.1%
q3 18.8% 22.1% 23.3% 21.8% 22.1% 19.7% 20.6% 27.0% 24.4% 21.9%
85 86
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EFICIENTA ACTIVITATII OPERATIONALE
PONDEREA CHELTUIELILOR
Cost of Revenue 72.48% 72.74% 70.99% 71.02% 66.83% 64.80% 59.86% 60.62% 59.52% 56.13%
Selling/General/Admin. Expenses, Total 19.53% 17.27% 13.38% 12.60% 12.06% 10.03% 9.67% 8.46% 7.02% 6.42%
Research & Development 7.59% 5.93% 3.84% 3.69% 3.18% 2.96% 3.11% 2.73% 2.24% 2.16%
Total Operating Expense 100.02% 96.22% 88.21% 87.30% 82.07% 77.79% 72.64% 71.81% 68.78% 64.70%
Interest Inc.(Exp.),Net-Non-Op., Total 1.5% 0.8% 1.3% 2.0% 2.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7%
Provi sion for Income Taxes 0.4% 1.3% 3.4% 4.3% 6.1% 7.5% 8.9% 6.9% 7.7% 9.0%
87 88
89 90
15
Inventory turnover
Inv Turnover 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
APPLE 89.1 76.7 74.4 63.1 53.3 56.8 53.3 52.5 70.5 112.1
HP 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.5 10 11.3 12.5 15.2 14 13.4
DELL 99.5 107.1 102 87.7 76.8 53.8 49 45.5 42.6 35.7
CSCO 6.4 6.7 6.5 7.3 9.4 11.1 11.3 12 11.8 11.3
MSI 9.2 12.4 13.2 7.8 8.2 11 14.3 17 14.8 14
INT 5.4 5.6 5.5 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.5 5.2 4.6
NOK 14.1 14.7 14.9 17.2 15.3 12.3 12.6 13.5 11.3 11.3
GOOG - - - - - - - - - 75.9
rank 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
q1 7.75 8.00 8.00 7.55 8.80 11.05 11.90 12.75 11.55 11.30
q2 9.20 12.40 13.20 9.50 10.00 11.30 12.60 15.20 14.00 13.70
q3 51.60 45.70 44.65 40.15 34.30 33.05 31.65 31.25 28.70 45.75
91 92
Fixed Asset Turnover 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
APPLE 9.62 12.03 18.28 18.41 15.79 17.49 15.86 16.89 17.26 13.48
HP 10.83 12.11 13.18 13.72 14.18 12.66 10.33 10.91 10.54 9.89
DELL 40.72 34.11 30.62 30.29 26.09 24.08 24.71 23.73 29.75 30.45
CSCO 4.87 6.36 7.5 8.43 9.52 9.83 8.82 10.03 11 12.59
MSI 14.33 16.19 17.03 16.43 13.83 11.41 8.48 8.24 8.86 8.97
INT 1.75 2.11 2.36 2.04 2.22 2.18 2.02 2.48 2.6 2.07
NOK 17.13 18.95 21.92 25.81 29.06 25.34 20.71 22.22 20.37 18.44
GOOG 12.11 11.25 9.16 6.32 5.16 4.7 4.69 4.65 4.37 4.68
q1 8.43 10.03 8.75 7.90 8.43 8.55 7.53 7.34 7.74 7.90
q2 11.47 12.07 15.11 15.08 14.01 12.04 9.58 10.47 10.77 11.24
q3 15.03 16.88 19.19 20.26 18.37 19.14 17.07 18.22 18.04 14.72
93 94
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
RATE DE PROFITABILITATE
ROA 1.04% 3.58% 13.57% 13.85% 16.43% 19.89% 19.68% 22.84% 27.06% 28.54%
ROA before taxes 1.40% 4.98% 18.48% 19.62% 23.53% 29.09% 28.84% 30.22% 35.71% 38.14%
ROA before interest and taxes 0.38% 4.52% 16.79% 17.08% 20.71% 27.07% 28.06% 29.97% 35.28% 37.78%
ROE 1.64% 5.72% 21.24% 22.85% 28.51% 33.23% 30.54% 35.28% 41.67% 42.84%
PN/CA 1.10% 3.21% 9.53% 10.30% 14.22% 16.32% 19.19% 21.48% 23.95% 26.67%
CA/Activ 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Pasiv/CPR 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5
ROE (Du Pont) 1.64% 5.72% 21.24% 22.85% 28.51% 33.23% 30.54% 35.28% 41.67% 42.84%
Rec 0.02% 4.71% 17.32% 17.28% 21.59% 26.91% 26.01% 30.64% 35.71% 36.48%
efect de levier 1.61% 1.01% 3.92% 5.56% 6.92% 6.32% 4.52% 4.64% 5.96% 6.36%
ROIC 1.50% 5.40% 19.80% 21.20% 26.10% 29.90% 27.10% 31.00% 36.30% 36.90%
95 96
16
97 98
99 100
ROE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
APPLE 1.64% 5.72% 21.24% 22.85% 28.51% 33.23% 30.54% 35.28% 41.67% 42.84%
HP 6.86% 9.29% 6.42% 16.46% 18.95% 21.50% 19.28% 21.64% 17.89% -41.43%
DELL 44.36% 47.43% 47.29% 68.40% 60.88% 71.29% 61.19% 28.91% 39.31% 41.86%
CSCO 12.62% 18.45% 23.43% 23.70% 26.48% 24.46% 16.81% 18.74% 14.19% 16.32%
MSI 12.86% 11.69% 19.93% 28.56% 39.51% 52.48% 38.42% 43.76% 44.84% 27.51%
INT 15.39% 19.67% 23.18% 13.83% 17.55% 12.86% 10.75% 25.16% 27.15% 22.66%
NOK 24.41% 21.73% 27.25% 35.47% 53.89% 27.52% 6.53% 13.47% -8.87% -31.34%
GOOG 31.35% 22.98% 23.73% 23.26% 21.16% 16.60% 20.30% 20.68% 18.66% 16.61%
rank 8 8 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 1
q1 11.18% 1 1.09% 20.9 1% 21.25% 20.61% 20.28% 15.29% 20.20% 16.97% 4.41%
q2 14.13% 1 9.06% 23.3 1% 23.48% 27.49% 25.99% 19.79% 23.40% 22.90% 19.64%
q3 26.15% 2 2.04% 24.6 1% 30.29% 43.10% 38.04% 32.51% 30.51% 39.90% 31.10%
101 102
17
Rate de rentabilitate - peers Rate de rentabilitate - peers
ROA 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
APPLE 1.04% 3.58% 13.57% 13.85% 16.43% 19.89% 19.68% 22.84% 27.06% 28.54%
HP 3.49% 4.64% 3.13% 7.78% 8.51% 8.25% 6.72% 7.32% 5.57% -10.62%
DELL 14.63% 15.21% 14.19% 15.50% 10.57% 11.08% 9.17% 4.76% 7.29% 8.40%
CSCO 9.55% 13.67% 16.53% 14.46% 15.17% 14.37% 9.67% 10.41% 7.72% 8.99%
MSI 10.08% 9.28% 14.84% 17.95% 21.19% 26.01% 19.34% 22.88% 23.77% 14.77%
INT 12.35% 15.78% 17.96% 10.43% 13.41% 9.97% 8.44% 19.72% 19.27% 14.16%
NOK 15.43% 13.99% 16.36% 19.37% 22.41% 10.08% 0.69% 3.59% -3.95% -11.44%
GOOG 18.24% 19.07% 21.57% 21.41% 19.19% 14.80% 18.05% 17.30% 14.93% 12.97%
rank 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 2 1 1
q1 8.04% 8.12% 14.0 4% 13.00% 12.70% 10.05% 8.01% 6.68% 6.86% 3.65%
q2 11.22% 1 3.83% 15.6 0% 14.98% 15.80% 12.72% 9.42% 13.85% 11.32% 10.98%
q3 14.83% 1 5.35% 16.8 9% 18.30% 19.69% 16.08% 18.37% 20.50% 20.40% 14.31%
103 104
Du Pont Du Pont
DELL 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
APPLE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asset Turnover 2.44 2.38 2.31 2.40 2.35 2.30 2.26 1.76 1.70 1.49
Asset Turnover 0.95 1.11 1.42 1.35 1.16 1.22 1.03 1.06 1.13 1.07
x Pretax Margin 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 8.3% 5.8% 6.3% 5.4% 3.8% 5.4% 6.8%
x Pretax Margin 1.5% 4.5% 13.0% 14.6% 20.4% 23.9% 28.1% 28.4% 31.6% 35.6%
Pretax ROA 20.9% 21.4% 20.7% 19.8% 13.7% 14.4% 12.3% 6.7% 9.3% 10.2%
Pretax ROA 1.4% 5.0% 18.5% 19.6% 23.5% 29.1% 28.8% 30.2% 35.7% 38.1%
x Leverage (Assets/Equity) 3.17 3.08 3.58 5.75 5.77 7.20 6.20 5.97 4.97 4.99
x Leverage (Assets/Equity) 1.61 1.59 1.55 1.72 1.74 1.62 1.5 1.57 1.52 1.49
Pretax ROE 63.3% 66.8% 69.0% 87.5% 78.8% 92.6% 82.1% 40.8% 50.0% 50.8%
Pretax ROE 2.2% 8.0% 28.9% 32.4% 40.8% 48.6% 44.7% 46.7% 55.0% 57.2%
x Tax Complement 0.70 0.71 0.69 0.78 0.77 0.77 0.75 0.71 0.79 0.82
x Tax Complement 0.75 0.72 0.73 0.71 0.7 0.68 0.68 0.76 0.76 0.75
ROE 44.4% 47.4% 47.3% 68.4% 60.9% 71.3% 61.2% 28.9% 39.3% 41.9%
ROE 1.6% 5.7% 21.2% 22.8% 28.5% 33.2% 30.5% 35.3% 41.7% 42.8%
x Earnings Retention 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
x Earnings Retention 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.94
Reinvestment Rate 44.4% 47.4% 47.3% 68.4% 60.9% 71.3% 61.2% 28.9% 39.3% 41.9%
Reinvestment Rate 1.6% 5.7% 21.2% 22.8% 28.5% 33.2% 30.5% 35.3% 41.7% 40.3%
CSCO 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asset Turnover 0.50 0.61 0.71 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.57 0.54 0.51 0.52
HP 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 x Pretax Margin 26.6% 31.7% 32.4% 26.8% 27.1% 25.9% 21.3% 23.5% 18.1% 22.1%
Asset Turnover 1.00 1.05 1.13 1.15 1.22 1.17 1.00 1.05 1.00 1.01 Pretax ROA 13.4% 19.2% 23.1% 19.8% 19.6% 18.3% 12.1% 12.6% 9.3% 11.4%
x Pretax Margin 4.0% 5.3% 4.1% 7.9% 8.8% 8.9% 8.2% 8.7% 7.1% -10.0% x Leverage (Assets/Equity) 1.32 1.38 1.46 1.81 1.69 1.71 1.76 1.83 1.84 1.79
Pretax ROA 4.0% 5.6% 4.6% 9.0% 10.8% 10.4% 8.3% 9.2% 7.1% -10.0% Pretax ROE 17.7% 26.0% 32.8% 32.4% 34.2% 31.2% 21.1% 22.7% 17.1% 20.6%
x Leverage (Assets/Equity) 1.98 2.03 2.08 2.15 2.30 2.91 2.83 3.08 3.35 4.85 x Tax Complement 0.71 0.63 0.71 0.73 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.79
Pretax ROE 7.8% 11.1% 9.5% 19.1% 23.9% 27.0% 23.7% 27.1% 22.7% -39.1% ROE 12.6% 18.4% 23.4% 23.7% 26.5% 24.5% 16.8% 18.7% 14.2% 16.3%
x Tax Complement 0.88 0.83 0.68 0.86 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.80 0.79 - x Earnings Retention 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.81
ROE 6.9% 9.3% 6.4% 16.5% 18.9% 21.5% 19.3% 21.6% 17.9% -41.4% Reinvestment Rate 12.6% 18.4% 23.4% 23.7% 26.5% 24.5% 16.8% 18.7% 12.7% 13.3%
x Earnings Retention 0.62 0.72 0.61 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.88 -
Reinvestment Rate 4.2% 6.7% 3.9% 14.1% 16.7% 19.4% 17.4% 19.8% 15.8% -44.7%
105 106
Du Pont Du Pont
MSI 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NOK 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asset Turnover 0.43 0.42 0.48 0.63 0.77 0.89 0.78 0.76 0.72 0.64
Asset Turnover 1.25 1.26 1.52 1.82 1.70 1.31 1.09 1.13 1.03 0.91
x Pretax Margin 34.3% 33.1% 41.8% 41.2% 39.3% 39.4% 33.9% 40.0% 40.1% 30.2%
x Pretax Margin 18.1% 16.0% 14.5% 13.9% 16.2% 9.8% 2.3% 4.2% -3.1% -8.7%
Pretax ROA 14.8% 13.9% 20.1% 26.0% 30.3% 35.0% 26.3% 30.5% 28.8% 19.4%
Pretax ROA 22.6% 20.2% 22.0% 25.4% 27.5% 12.9% 2.6% 4.8% -3.2% -8.0%
x Leverage (Assets/Equity) 1.26 1.26 1.47 1.74 2.03 2.01 1.97 1.86 1.90 1.83
x Leverage (Assets/Equity) 1.58 1.59 1.82 1.89 2.55 2.79 2.73 2.72 3.05 3.78
Pretax ROE 18.9% 17.5% 27.1% 41.4% 56.5% 70.7% 52.3% 58.4% 54.4% 36.1%
Pretax ROE 36.3% 32.0% 37.5% 47.1% 61.8% 34.3% 7.0% 13.0% -9.1% -26.7%
x Tax Complement 0.68 0.67 0.74 0.69 0.70 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.82 0.76
x Tax Complement 0.67 0.68 0.73 0.75 0.87 0.80 0.93 1.04 - -
ROE 12.9% 11.7% 19.9% 28.6% 39.5% 52.5% 38.4% 43.8% 44.8% 27.5%
ROE 24.4% 21.7% 27.2% 35.5% 53.9% 27.5% 6.5% 13.5% -8.9% -31.3%
x Earnings Retention 0.89 0.79 (1.95) 0.71 0.73 0.77 0.68 0.76 0.77 0.60
x Earnings Retention 0.60 0.52 0.55 0.59 0.71 0.62 (0.68) 0.19 - -
Reinvestment Rate 0.11 0.09 (0.39) 0.20 0.29 0.40 0.26 0.33 0.34 0.17
Reinvestment Rate 14.6% 11.3% 14.9% 21.0% 38.1% 17.0% -4.4% 2.6% -14.6% -31.3%
INTC 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GOOG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asset Turnover 0.66 0.72 0.81 0.73 0.74 0.71 0.68 0.75 0.80 0.69 Asset Turnover 2.53 1.52 0.90 0.74 0.76 0.76 0.65 0.60 0.58 0.60
x Pretax Margin 24.7% 30.5% 32.5% 20.0% 23.9% 20.4% 16.2% 36.8% 32.9% 27.9% x Pretax Margin 23.6% 20.4% 34.9% 37.8% 34.2% 26.9% 35.4% 36.8% 32.5% 26.7%
Pretax ROA 16.3% 21.9% 26.1% 14.6% 17.6% 14.5% 11.0% 27.6% 26.5% 19.1% Pretax ROA 59.9% 31.1% 31.5% 27.9% 25.9% 20.5% 23.2% 22.0% 18.9% 16.1%
x Leverage (Assets/Equity) 1.25 1.25 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.27 1.28 1.55 1.65 x Leverage (Assets/Equity) 1.60 1.13 1.09 1.08 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.25 1.25 1.31
Pretax ROE 20.3% 27.3% 33.7% 19.4% 23.1% 18.7% 14.0% 35.2% 37.3% 30.6% Pretax ROE 87.7% 36.8% 34.7% 30.3% 28.6% 23.0% 26.1% 26.3% 23.6% 20.6%
x Tax Complement 0.76 0.72 0.69 0.71 0.76 0.69 0.77 0.71 0.73 0.74 x Tax Complement 0.30 0.61 0.68 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.80
ROE 15.4% 19.7% 23.2% 13.8% 17.5% 12.9% 10.8% 25.2% 27.1% 22.7% ROE 26.7% 22.6% 23.7% 23.3% 21.2% 16.6% 20.3% 20.7% 18.7% 16.6%
x Earnings Retention 0.91 0.86 0.77 0.54 0.62 0.41 0.29 0.69 0.68 0.60 x Earnings Retention 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Reinvestment Rate 14.0% 17.0% 17.9% 7.5% 11.0% 5.3% 3.1% 17.5% 18.5% 13.7% Reinvestment Rate 31.3% 23.0% 23.7% 23.3% 21.2% 16.6% 20.3% 20.7% 18.7% 16.6%
107 108
18
Studiu de caz - Apple Studiu de caz - Apple
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Gross Margin 27.5% 27.3% 29.0% 29.0% 33.2% 35.2% 40.1% 39.4% 40.5% 43.9%
POLITICA DE DIVIDEND EBITDA Margin 2.2% 5.9% 13.1% 13.9% 19.2% 23.4% 28.9% 29.5% 32.9% 37.4%
d = dividend / PN 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.96% Operating Margin 0.0% 3.8% 11.8% 12.7% 17.9% 22.2% 27.4% 28.2% 31.2% 35.3%
VALORI DE PIATA Pretax Margin 1.5% 4.5% 13.0% 14.6% 20.4% 23.9% 28.1% 28.4% 31.6% 35.6%
Hist Mkt Cap, FY D% 43.60% 92.38% 204.33% 48.21% 103.34% -14.91% 44.05% 63.17% 40.32% 66.77% Effective Tax Rate 26.1% 28.1% 26.5% 29.4% 30.2% 31.6% 31.8% 24.4% 24.2% 25.2%
EPS (PN/actiune) 0.10 0.36 1.64 2.36 4.04 6.94 9.22 15.41 28.05 44.64 Net Margin 1.1% 3.2% 9.5% 10.3% 14.2% 16.3% 19.2% 21.5% 23.9% 26.7%
DPS (dividend/actiune) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
dividend to assets 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.70% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MBR (capitalizare/CPR valori medii) 1.5 2.4 4.7 6.3 8.1 6.7 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.1 A/R Turnover 9.3 9.1 14.3 10.3 7.2 8.6 8.8 8.7 10 10.3
MBR (capitalizare/CPR) 1.8 2.9 6.0 6.6 9.2 5.1 5.2 5.6 4.9 5.3 Avg. A/R Days 39 39.9 25.4 35.9 50.9 42.4 41.4 41.8 36.4 35.4
MVA (valori medii) 2,276,724.6 6,442,752.7 23,257,981.2 46,424,571.3 87,599,219.8 105,483,124.7 112,039,725.7 176,211,439.7 259,528,520.8 403,716,022.0
Inv Turnover 89.1 76.7 74.4 63.1 53.3 56.8 53.3 52.5 70.5 112.1
MVA 3,364,572.9 9,520,932.4 36,995,030.0 55,854,112.6 119,344,327.0 91,621,922.4 132,457,529.0 219,965,350.4 299,091,691.1 508,340,352.8
Fixed Asset Turnover 9.62 12.03 18.28 18.41 15.79 17.49 15.86 16.89 17.26 13.48
MVA - D% 1.8 1.8 2.9 0.5 1.1 (0.2) 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7
PER (valori medii) 92.4 42.9 22.7 28.2 28.8 20.5 17.0 15.5 12.5 12.1
PER 111.6 54.9 33.5 33.1 38.3 18.6 19.9 19.1 14.5 15.0
109 110
19
Diagnosticul riscului
2016-2017
Analiza financiara
Master FABBV
Categorii de risc
3 4
1
1.a) Coeficient de elasticitate 1.a) Coeficient de elasticitate
e PN/CA e PN/EBT e EBT/EBIT e EBIT/CA s itu a tia c re s te r e c u sit u a tia c re s te r e c u
A 8 1 2 4 in r e g is tr a ta 20% a CA in r e g is tr a t a 20% a C A
7 8
9 10
11 12
- 4
0 0 ,0 0 0
2
1.c) Variabilitatea rezultatelor
1.c) Variabilitatea rezultatelor 2005 100,000 -3,000
2006 150,000 150,000
2007 200,000 0
2008 180,000 -45,000
media, varianta si 2009
2010
230,000
300,000
230,000
500,000
coeficientul de variatie ale profitului net 2011 270,000 1,000,000
2012 250,000 -68,000
(sau EBIT, EBT) 2013 290,000 900,000
2014 330,000 -40,000
E( PN )
PN m e die
varianta=s igm a2=dispers ie
s igm a =deviatie standard=abatere
230,000
5,244,444,444
262,400
161,680,044,444
n m e die patratica
coe ficie nt de variatie
72,419
0.31
402,095
1.53
2 95% inte rval de incre de re z=1.96
2 ( PN )
(PN t E( PN)) lim ita s upe rioara
NORMSINV(97.5
%) 371,938
1.959963985
1,050,491
lim ita infe rioara 88,062 -525,691
n 1 99% inte rval de incre de re z=2.58
NORMSINV(99.5 2.575829304
( PN ) lim ita s upe rioara %) 416,538 1,298,127
CV( PN ) lim ita infe rioara 43,462 -773,327
E( PN ) probabilitate a ca PN>0 =
1-NORMSDIST(-B39/B41) 99.93% 74.30%
13 14
3
2) Rata de crestere sustenabila 2) Rata de crestere sustenabila
21 22
4
2) Rata de crestere sustenabila Rata de crestere sustenabila
Rata de cretere sustenabil poate fi descompus n
urmtorii factori de influen, identificandu-se
(3) rata de cretere efectiv a cifrei de afaceri modalitatile de crestere a acesteia :
este egal cu rata de cretere sustenabila PN CA Activ
g* (1 d )R fin (1 d )
varianta optim, astfel c se poate utiliza CA Activ CPR
pentru previziunea cifrei de afaceri rata de ratei de distribuire a dividendelor, deci ratei de
reinvestire;
cretere sustenabil
ratei de marj prin pondereii cheltuielilor in CA
viteza de rotaie a activului, deci duratei de rotaie a
activului prin cifra de afaceri;
g=g* rata de structur (Pasiv/CPR) prin creterea ratei de
ndatorare se obin resurse suplimentare prin care este
posibil finanarea unei rate de cretere a cifrei de
25 afaceri superioare. 26
5
Modelul CAPM
iM iM i
i
M2 M
1. RISCUL TOTAL = RISCUL SISTEMATIC + RISCUL SPECIFIC NTREPRINDERII DILEME frecvente in estimarea Beta
2. RISCUL SISTEMATIC este msurat cu ajutorul coeficientului de volatilitate BETA i
exprim senzitivitatea rentabilitii investiiei n aciunile ntreprinderile i la Estimarea lui BETA:
variaia rentabilitii investiiei n indicele bursier considerat ca fiind portofoliul
diversificat reprezentativ al pieei de capital. -Lungimea perioadei pentru care se utilizeaza
Ri = ai + b i RM + ei Ri E (R i ) E (a b i R M ei ) datele istorice 2-5 ani
a b i E (R M ) -Frecventa informatiilor zilnice, saptamanale,
i2 2 ( R i )
lunare, trimestriale, anuale
2 2 bi
i
M
2i
-Alegerea unui indice care sa reprezinte piata:
risc de piata risc specific
ai indici reprezentativi de pe piata de capital pe care
se tranzactioneaza actiunile companiei
RM determinat ca medie ponderata in functie de
capitalizarea bursiera
structura riscului :
i M /
2 2 2
ponderea in riscul total a riscului de piata
( Ri )
risc de piata
6
Auto top 10 Forbes sursa datelor TR 3.b) Efectul indatorarii asupra rentabilitatii
PN
ROA
Beta 3 Yr Beta 5 Yr Active
Wkly Mthly EBIT ( EBIT dobanzi)
1 Toyota Motor Japan 0.98 1.16 Rec
AE
2 Volkswagen Germany 1.28 1.57 DAT
3 Daimler Germany 1.26 1.59 ROE Rec ( Rec Rdob )
CPR
4 BMW Group Germany 1.26 1.49 P
ROE ROA
5 Honda Motor Japan 1.05 1.33 CPR
6 General Motors US 1.39 1.40 ( EBIT dobanzi)(1 ) EBIT (1 ) R DAT
ROE (1 ) dob
7 Ford Motor US 1.15 1.12 CPR CPR CPR
8 Nissan Motor Japan 1.09 1.06 EBIT (1 ) CPR DAT R DAT
(1 ) dob
9 Hyundai Motor South Korea 0.95 0.83 AE CPR CPR
CPR DAT DAT
10 SAIC Motor China 0.81 0.74 ROIC Rdob (1 )
CPR CPR
DAT 38
ROIC ( ROIC Rdob (1 ))
CPR
7
Bankruptcy Prediction Models Bankruptcy Prediction Models
http://www.bankruptcyaction.com/insolart1.htm
ALTMAN MODEL (U.S. - 1968)
For example, 22 financial ratios were tested in developing Altman's model achieved an accuracy rate of 95.0%.
the Altman Model (1968). Altman's model takes the following form :
Z = 1.2A + 1.4B + 3.3C + 0.6D + .999E
66 companies were used - 33 failed and 33 successful. Z < 2.675; then the firm is classified as "failed"
The first result was a formula with 22 functions. The
function that contributed the least to discriminating A = Working Capital/Total Assets
between the failed and successful companies was dropped B = Retained Earnings/Total Assets
and the statistical software was run again. This was C = Earnings before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
repeated over and over each time dropping the ratio which D = Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Debt
least contributed to discriminating between the failed and E = Sales/Total Assets
successful companies.
In the case of the Altman model,
five variables remained.
8
Regresii - Damodaran Regresii - Damodaran
Market-wide Regressions of Multiples European companies in January 2016 Market-wide Regressions of Multiples Japanese Companies in January 2016
T statistics in brackets below coefficients T statistics in brackets below coefficients
Regression R2 Regression R2
PE = 13.43 + 54.46 gEPS + 17.63 Payout - 4.16 Beta 24.7% PE = 20.10+ 26.46 gEPS + 24.87 Payout - 7.60 Beta 28.4%
(9.88) (13.26) (13.42) (6.84) (7.39) (4.68) (6.53) (4.71)
PEG = 0.71 Payout 1.08 ln(gEPS) -0.337 Beta 41.2% PEG = 0.69 Payout 1.11 ln(gEPS) -0.451 Beta 42.9%
(5.59) (26.48) (6.86) (2.01) (13.99) (4.03)
PBV= 2.66 + 6.30 gEPS - 1.40 Beta + 9.39 ROE +1.80 Payout 40.6% PBV= 2.01 + 2.15 gEPS - 1.18 Beta + 0.97 Payout + 8.28 ROE 29.1%
(6.59) (5.81) (8.45) (23.06) (5.10) (5.62) (3.14) (6.06) (2.06) (8.51)
PS= 5.83 gEPS - 0.37 Beta + 11.87 Net Margin + 1.70 Payout 77.2% PS=2.50 Payout + 3.76 gEPS - 0.90 Beta + 21.37 Net Margin 70.4%
(9.99) (5.99) (36.35) (10.88) (5.31) (4.38) (6.41) (17.65)
EV/Invested Capital= 0.02 + 1.75 g + 23.23 ROIC 0.05 DFR 69.1% EV/Invested Capital= 1.81 + 0.97 g + 8.90 ROIC 2.07 DFR 32.5%
(0.10) (4.73) (67.38) (0.17) (13.03) (3.93) (16.14) (7.33)
EV/Sales = -0,89 +9.81 g + 14.63 Operating Margin + 14.91 DFR- 6.10 Tax 31.4% EV/Sales = 2.02 + 0.48 g+ 8.73 Operating Margin +2.50 DFR- 5.00 Tax 13.6%
rate rate
(2.80) (14.69) (18.22) (31.03) (8.39) (6.82) (1.55) (11.50) (7.48) (6.36)
EV/EBITDA= 17.28 + 18.82 g - 7.55DFR - 9.10 Tax Rate - 17.94 WACC 6.5% EV/EBITDA= 22.49 + 1.75 g - 6.03 DFR - 1.90 Tax Rate -79,46 WACC 6.8%
(16.13) (11.52) (6.18) (5.72) (1.61) (12.41) (1.40) (4.09) (5.36) (5.49)
49 50
51 52
Categorii de risc
Diagnosticul riscului -
seminar Risc de exploatare (1)
Risc aferent cresterii CA (2)
2016-2017
Risc de indatorare (3)
Analiza financiara
Master FABBV Risc de faliment (4)
9
1.b) Pragul de rentabilitate
Determinati:
(1) Risc de exploatare Pragul de rentabilitate PR
PR daca CF scad cu 25.000
PR daca CVM scade cu 25
a) Coeficient de elasticitate PR daca pretul scade cu 50
b) Prag de rentabilitate
c) Variabilitatea rezultatelor
56
57 58
59 60
10
1.c) Variabilitatea rezultatelor
media, varianta si
coeficientul de variatie ale profitului net
(sau EBIT, EBT)
Studiu de caz
E( PN )
PN PALMETO SOUPS
n
(PN t E( PN)) 2
2 ( PN )
n 1
( PN )
CV( PN )
E( PN )
61 62
s cade rea cu a vanza rilor va genera o s cadere a EBIT cu s cade rea cu a vanza rilor va genera o s cadere a EBIT cu
10% 39.48% 20.79% 57.07% 24.49% 76.73% 29.95% 179.23% 42.47% 10% 39.48% 20.79% 57.07% 24.49% 76.73% 29.95% 179.23% 42.47%
EBIT d evine 1,591 5,834 725 4,248 284 3,002 -391 1,550 EBIT d evine 1,591 5,834 725 4,248 284 3,002 -391 1,550
EBIT-i nteres t 191 4,624 -675 3,038 -1,116 1,792 - 1,791 63 340 EBIT-i nteres t 191 4,624 -675 3,038 -1,116 1,792 - 1,791 64 340
11
Rata de crestere
sustenabila studiu de caz:
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CA 2000 2500 2600 3000 3500
(2) Risc aferent cresterii CA Profit net
Dividende
200
100
240
110
270
120
340
130
380
200
Activ 1000 1100 1200 1350 1500
Capital propriu(0) 500 600 830 980 1390
a) Cresterea sustenabila
a) Calculati rata de crestere efectiva a cifrei de afaceri
b) Cresterea efectiva
b) Calculati rata de crestere sustenabila a cifrei de afaceri si
identificati factorii de influenta
c) Interpretati prin comparatie rata de crestere efectiva cu rata de
crestere sustenabila a cifrei de afaceri
68
12
3.c) Efectul indatorarii asupra beta Beta ajustari - EXEMPLU
Valorile BETA communicate reflecta structura capitalului Beta (firma indatorata; levier=0.75; listata la bursa) = 2.25
pentru respectiva companie include volatilitatea generata de Determinati beta al unei firme nelistate la bursa, cu levier de 0.5
riscul financiar.
Daca levierul companiei analizate difera semnificativ de
structura capitalului companiilor de referinta, ar trebui b L (levier 0.75) b U 1 1 16% 0.75 2.25
eliminat efectul indatorarii asupra beta
2.25
bU 1.38
1 1 16%0.75
DAT
L U 1 1 b L (levier 0.5) 1.381 1 16% 0.5 1.9596
CPR
L
U
DAT
1 1
CPR
73
Seara frumoasa
in continuare!
77
13
Impactul indatorarii asupra
valorii companiei
2016-2017
Analiza financiara
Master, FABBV
Indatorarea
beneficii privind costurile
avantaje fiscale
avantaj / dezavantaj prin
rentabilitate superioara / inferioara
in caz favorabil / nefavorabil
2
Teorii privind structura capitalului
n
Dob t
V0 (firma indatorata) V0 (firma neindatorata ) t
t 1 (1 R dob )
n
Dob t n
R dob DAT 1 (1 R dob ) n
t 1 (1 R dob )
t
t 1 (1 R dob ) t
R dob DAT
R dob
DAT
Factori determinanti ai
levierului
SPOR LA INVATAT
SI
BAFTA IN SESIUNE!!!
39
Exista un grad optim de indatorare?!
Impactul indatorarii asupra
valorii companiei Indatorarea
beneficii privind costurile
RQ: este relevanta politica de finantare avantaje fiscale
pentru valoarea companiei?
avantaj / dezavantaj prin
rentabilitate superioara / inferioara
2016-2017 in caz favorabil / nefavorabil
Analiza financiara
Master, FABBV
Punctul de plecare : 1958 Modigliani si Miller[1]: 2) nu exista impozite, operatiunile de vanzare sau de cumparare de
titluri se fac instantaneu si fara costuri de tranzactionare;
3) firmele pot emite doar doua tipuri de titluri: actiuni cu un anumit
valoarea de piata a unei firme este independenta de grad de risc si datorie la rata dobanzii fara risc;
structura capitalului 4) atat persoanele fizice cat si firmele pot contracta credite sau plasa
(1) Teoria irelevantei structurii capitalului depozite la rata dobanzii fara risc;
5) investitorii au anticipari omogene privind profiturile viitoare;
fiind determinata numai de nivelul si riscul cash-flow- 6) cresterea economica a firmei este zero astfel incat cash-flow-urile
sunt perpetue;
urilor viitoare, sub urmatoarele ipotezele:
7) toate firmele se pot incadra in clase de rentabilitati echivalente
(clase de risc), astfel concepute incat rentabilitatea actiunilor unei
[1] Modigliani&Miller (1958) The Cost of Capital, firme dintr-o anumita clasa este proportionala si perfect corelata cu
Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment rentabilitatea actiunilor firmelor din aceeasi clasa
1
Modelul Modigliani-Miller
Presupunand mentinerea valorii datoriilor financiare pe o perioada Cum sistemul de impozitare favorizeaza
nelimitata: apelarea la datorii fata de emisiunea de
n
actiuni, aceasta teorie explica de ce
Dob t
V0 (firma indatorata ) V0 (firma neindatora ta ) firmele prefera finantarea prin datorii
(1 R dob ) t
t 1
fata de finantarea prin aport nou de
n
Dob t n
R dob DAT 1 (1 R dob ) n capital;
(1 R t
(1 R dob ) t
R dob DAT DAT
t 1 dob ) t 1 R dob DAR nu explica preferinta firmelor pentru
finantare interna fata de finantarea
V0 ( firma indatorata ) V0 ( firma neindatora ta ) DAT prin datorii.
12
2
(4) Structura capitalului in cazul existentei costului de
agent
Costul de agent = finantarea prin datorii apare ca o modalitate de
diferenta dintre reducere a costului de agent, determinat de situatia
valoarea actuala a firmei si conflictuala dintre actionari si manageri:
valoarea teoretica a firmei in conditiile in care motivatiile
managerului, actionarilor si creditorilor sunt perfect anticipate.
finantarea prin datorii reduce CF-ul disponibil la
dispozitia managerilor
Problema de agent este consecinta informatiei imperfecte si a
aversiunii la risc si poate fi explicata prin relatia de tip agent- firmele din sectoare economice caracterizate prin oportunitati
principal, in care agentul are ca obiectiv maximizarea averii reduse de crestere si CF-uri semnificative tind sa aiba rate
principalului. In aceasta relatie pot fi identificate doua tipuri de inalte ale levierului [5]
conflicte: manageri-actionari si actionari-creditori [4]. [5] Jensen (1986) Agency Cost of Free Cash Flow,
Corporate Finance and Takeovers
finantarea prin datorii poate fi considerata ca un dar cresterea nivelului indatorarii determina
mecanism de fortare a lichidarii firmelor cu CF- aparitia costului de agent dintre actionari si
uri scazute[6], in cazul cand managerii doresc creditori:
continuarea activitatii operationale, chiar in motivatia actionarilor de a constrange
conditiile in care actionarii ar avea avantaje din managerii pentru realizarea de proiecte
lichidare riscante, fenomen cunoscut sub numele de
problema substituirii proiectelor
[6] Harris&Raviv (1990) Capital Structure and the
Informational Role of Debt (contractarea de imprumuturi pentru proiecte
sigure, beneficiind de dobanzi fara prime de
risc, si utilizarea fondurilor astfel obtinute in
Structura optima a capitalului: compromisul dintre proiecte riscante, din a caror realizare
beneficiul indatorarii (eliminarea posibilitatii de favorabila au avantaje numai actionarii, insa
investire in proiecte cu valori actuale descrescatoare) realizarea nefavorabila ar fi suportata in cea
si costul indatorarii (renuntarea la investitii in mai mare parte de creditori)
proiecte cu valori actuale crescatoare)
Diamond considera ca acest fenomen nu apare in Tinand cont de aceste costuri de agent,
cazul firmelor cu reputatie, acestea manifestand structura optima a capitalului este data de
tendinta de realizare de proiecte sigure; firmele mici
relatia:
sau nou infiintate, fara reputatie, doritoare de
rentabilitati mari, vor alege proiecte riscante. costul marginal al datoriei (indatorare)=
Costul de agent aferent datoriei este redus si prin =beneficiul (scaderea costului) marginal al
obiectivul managerului de a capata reputatie pe piata actiunilor (indatorare)
fortei de munca, deoarece obiectivul acestuia este de
maximizare a probabilitatii de succes.
Cresterea indatorarii poate conduce la o alta Pentru a demonstra relevanta teoriei de agent
problema: subinvestirea managerul, actionand in in explicarea structurii capitalului, trebuie
interesul actionarilor, poate respinge proiecte care ar analizat rolul actionarilor posibilitatea
fi condus la cresterea valorii firmei, daca ponderea actionarilor de a monitoriza si controla firma
cea mai mare a castigurilor revine creditorilor.
depinde de gradul de concentrare a
actionariatului si de influenta acestuia asupra
consiliului de conducere.
3
(5) Structura capitalului in cadrul modelelor bazate pe valoarea firmei nivelul indatorarii
asimetria de informatii probabilitatea falimentului sunt corelate pozitiv.
Asimetria de informatii presupune ca managerii decizia de finantare a proiectelor de investitii va viza
sunt mai bine informati decat investitorii in primul rand resursele interne, in al doilea rand
privind oportunitatile de investitii si fluxurile datoriile neriscante, apoi datoriile riscante, si, in
ultimul rand, emisiunea de actiuni - teoria pecking
financiare ale firmei.
order[7]
In aceste conditii: Consecinta acestei teorii este ca anuntarea
managerul poate folosi structura capitalului ca unei emisiuni de actiuni va determina scaderea
un mecanism de semnalizare -- investitorii pretului actiunilor existente.
externi percep o valoare mare a levierului ca Pentru firmele cu pondere redusa a activelor tangibile
un semnal pozitiv privind situatia financiara a asimetria de informatii este mai pronuntata astfel
firmei (numai firmele solide isi permit ca vor intampina problema subinvestirii.
asumarea riscului financiar aferent cresterii
indatorarii). [7] Myers&Majluf (1984) si Myers (1984)
4
Principalul beneficiu al indatorarii este cresterea valorii firmei
determinata de economiile fiscale dar dupa contractarea
datoriei, modificarea valorii de piata a acestei datorii nu afecteaza
direct economia fiscala; in plus, in caz de faliment, obligatiile fata
de creditori sunt determinate de valoarea contabila a datoriei.
26
-- cel mai important argument al folosirii valorii contabile este Cum exista argumente si contra-argumente pentru
acuratetea si usurinta de calcul fiecare din variante, se utilizeaza ambele variante
-- pe de alta parte, adeptii utilizarii valorilor de piata argumenteaza de calcul ale levierului - valori de piata si valori
ca in ultima instanta valoarea de piata determina adevarata valoare a contabile [8].
firmei, exemplificand cazul unor firme cu valori contabile ale
capitalului propriu negative (expresie a pierderilor realizate) dar cu
valori de piata pozitive (expresie a CF-urilor viitoare anticipate) [8] Titman & Wessels (1998), Rajan & Zingales (1995)
5
(d) volatilitatea castigurilor
(c) marimea firmei sensul relatiei dintre marimea firmei si
levier este controversat: piata financiara interpreteaza volatilitatea
firmele mari intampina mai putine dificultati in procurarea castigurilor ca un rezultat al managementului
resurselor in cazul asimetriei de informatii, confruntandu-se cu ineficient, penalizand firma respectiva prin
o probabilitate de faliment mai mica, ceea ce sugereaza o scaderea cursului actiunilor si solicitand un premiu
capacitate de indatorare optima mai mare[10] de risc suplimentar astfel, relatia dintre
pe de alta parte, cum asimetria de informatii este mai redusa in volatilitate si levier e negativa;
cazul firmelor mari, motivatia pentru cresterea indatorarii este
mai scazuta[11], ceea ce sugereaza o relatie negativa intre pe de alta parte insa, teoria de agent sugereaza o
marimea firmei si indatorare relatie pozitiva, explicabila prin faptul ca problema
[10] Titman&Wessels (1988) subinvestirii se reduce odata cu cresterea
[11] Rajan&Zingales (1995) volatilitatii rentabilitatii.
(e) profitabilitatea
(f) Economia fiscala
(g) unicitatea
cu cat activele unei firme sunt mai unice (specializate), cu (i) factori macroeconomici care influenteaza structura
atat este mai mica valoarea ce se poate recupera prin vanzarea optima a capitalului cum ar fi rata dobanzii, oferta de
activelor (pe o piata ingusta) in cazul falimentului[13]. Astfel moneda, conditii economice generale aceste variabile
se anticipeaza o relatie negativa intre unicitatea firmei si pot fi luate in considerare in model ca variabile dummy de
gradul de indatorare. timp.
(h) Varsta numarul de ani de la infiintarea firmei (j) Variabilele dummy de timp si sector - pentru a
surprinde influenta asupra valorii optime a levierului a
perioada scursa de la infiintarea firmei reprezinta un
factorilor specifici temporari si sectoriali.
interval de supravietuire, de generare si acumulare de
profituri si de surse interne de finantare, astfel incat este
corelata negativ cu probabilitatea de faliment, ceea ce exprima
influente pozitive asupra levierului optim.
6
M o d e l U K ; M o d el U S
S em n u l I n d ic a to r i M o d e l st a tic
t eo re t ic Profitabilitatea (+ ), (-) profit net (-) (-)
M o d a lita te d e L ev ier d e L e v ie r a ctive totale (-) (-)
c alc u l p ia ta c o n ta b il Amortizarea (-) amortiz are (-) (-)
U K /U S U K /U S (+) (+)
a ctive totale
L e v ie r d e p ia ta v a l . c o n ta b . d a t .
v a l . c o n ta b . d a t . v a l . p ia ta c a p ita l Unicitatea (-) R&D (-) (-)
(+) (+)
L ev ie r c o n ta b il v a l . co n ta b . d a t . CA
v a l . c o n ta b . d a t . v a l . c o n ta b . c a p it a l
Val. piata / (+ ), (-) --
T a n g ib ilit a t ea (+ ) a ct iv e fix e (+ ) (+ ) Val. contabila
a c tiv e to ta le (- ) ( -) V arsta firmei (+ ), (-) --
R ata de (+ ) , ( -) (- ) ( -)
Termen liber (+) (+)
c r e ste re v a l . p ia ta a f irm e i (+ ) (+ )
(+) (+)
v a l . co n ta b . a fir m ei (-) (-)
Du mmy de timp
M a ri m e a f ir m e i (+ ) ln a c t iv e t o t a le (+ ) (+ ) (+),(-) (+),(-)
(- ) ( -)
D um my de sector (+),(-) (+),(-)
V o la t ilita te a ca st ig u rilo r ( -) E B IT (- ) ( -)
(-) (-)
a c t iv e t o t a le (- ) ( -)
PREGATIRE EXAMEN!
SPOR LA INVATAT
SI
BAFTA IN SESIUNE!!!
39