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02.11.

2015

Analiza fluxurilor de trezorerie


(Cash flow statement analysis)

Analiza financiara
partea 4
interpretarea
documentelor contabile
Situatia fluxurilor de
trezorerie
ASE- Bucuresti

Prof.dr. Laura OBREJA


BRASOVEANU

Master nov 2015

Cash flow analysis

Analiza cash-flow-urilor
Operaiunile nregistrate de firm:
negeneratoare de fluxuri monetare (V/Ch calculate/nemonetare)
generatoare de fluxuri imediate
generatoare de fluxuri ulterioare
TNfinal=TNiniial + ncasri pli
CF=DTN=ncasri pli
Chiar daca pentru investitori pare important profitul, pentru manageri, creditori,
actionari este mai relevant tabloul fluxurilor de trezorerie; spre deosebire de
contul de profit si pierdere, in care sunt inregistrate toate veniturile si
cheltuielile, inclusiv cele nemonetare sau generatoare de fluxuri ulterioare,
tabloul fluxurilor de trezorerie inregistreaza doar fluxurile de incasari si
plati, explicand valoarea si modul de obtinere a trezoreriei, astfel ca ofera o
imagine fidela a capacitatii firmei de a-si permite plata
datoriilor, a creditelor, a dividendelor si de a finanta cresterea
viitoare.

Analiza cash-flow-urilor

Analiza cash-flow-urilor
Tabloul de finanare (utilizri-resurse) modul de
formare a FR i modul de utilizare al acestuia,
analiznd impactul diferitelor operaii ale firmei
asupra trezoreriei
CF=DTN = ncasri pli = DFR DNFR
Tabloul fluxurilor de trezorerie identificarea
fluxurilor monetare pe categorii de activiti:
exploatare, de investiii i de finanare
CF= DTN = incasari plati = CFexploatare +
CFinvestiii + CFfinanare

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

02.11.2015

1.

Tabloul de finanare
utilizari-resurse suplimentare
(Sources and Uses Statements)

Utilizri de lichiditi
(cash-out flow-uri):

Resurse de lichiditi
(cash-in flow-uri):

1) plata dividendelor
2) creterea brut a activelor fixe
3) rscumprarea capitalului social
4) rambursarea datoriilor financiare
pe termen lung

1) fonduri provenite din activitatea


curent (CAF)
2) emisiunea de aciuni
3) creterea datoriilor financiare pe
termen lung
4) scderea brut a activelor fixe

5) creterea activelor temporare


(excluznd activele de trezorerie)
6) scderea pasivelor temporare
(excluznd pasivele de trezorerie)

(1) relaia dintre tabloul de finanare i bilan


(2) relaia dintre tabloul de finanare i contul de profit i pierdere

5) creterea pasivelor temporare


(excluznd pasivele de trezorerie)
6) scderea activelor temporare
(excluznd activele de trezorerie)

Tabloul de finanare

Tabloul de finanare utilizri - resurse


Analiza pornete de la ideea c modificarea posturilor
bilaniere este consecina unor fluxuri financiare:
creterea/scderea unui element de activ reprezint o
utilizare/resurs suplimentar
creterea/scderea unui element de pasiv reprezint o
resurs/utilizare suplimentar
prima parte explic modul de realizare n dinamic a
echilibrului structural pe termen lung; este rezultatul
politicii de finanare i de investiii (variatia FR)
a doua parte explic impactul activitii curente, prin
identificarea modului de realizare a echilibrului pe
termen scurt (variatia NFR)

active imobilizate
imobilizari necorporale

2014

1360

1840

200

300

datorii <1 an

276

360

datorii comerciale

222

280

54

80

alte datorii
imobilizari corporale

1000

1300

active circulante nete

300

444

imobilizari financiare

160

240

datorii >1 an

450

760

active circulante

576

804

sume datorate institutiilor de credit


450

stocuri de materii prime

120

160

capital si rezerve

stocuri de produse finite


80
creante comerciale
200
alte creante
20
investitii financiare pe termen scurt20
casa si conturi la banci
136

140
250
30
24
200

activ

1936

760

1210

1524

capital social

770

1184

rezerve

440

2644

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

achiz.elementelor de activ imob.


-imob.necorporale
-imob.corporale
-imob.financiare

cap.soc.prin rscumprare

Rambursarea datoriilor financiare


DFR
utilizri pe termen < 1 an

stocuri i creane de exploatare

ali debitori

datoriilor de exploatare

datoriilor ctre ali creditori

RESURSE
resurse pe termen > 1 an

Capacitatea de autofinanare
(Autofinanarea)

Cesiunea/reducerea activ.imobilizat
-imob.necorporale
-imob.corporale
-imob.financiare

cap.soc.prin aport nou


contractare datorii financiare
resurse pe termen < 1 an

stocuri i creane de exploatare

ali debitori

datoriilor de exploatare

datoriilor n afara exploatrii


DNFR
D=DFR-DNFR

Analiza financiara pe baza contului de


profit si pierdere exemplu FIRMA

Analiza financiara pe baza


bilantului
exemplu
FIRMA
BILANT
2013

UTILIZRI
utilizri pe termen > 1 an

dividende

FR
NFR
CF

340
2014
144
76
68

%CA
2014
cifra de afaceri
1370
productia socata
60
104%
productia exercitiului
1430
cheltuieli cu materii prime
330
24%
80%
valoarea adaugata
1100
cheltuieli salariale
100
7%
alte cheltuieli de exploatare
20
1%
72%
EBE
980
ch.amortizari si provizioane de exploatare
244
18%
54%
Rezultatul exploatarii
736

venituri financiare
cheltuieli financiare
rezultat curent
venituri extraordinare
cheltuieli extraordinare
rezultat brut
impozit pe profit
profit net
CAF
EBT
EBIT
EBITDA
Dividende

140
80
796
40
36
800
128
672
916
800
880
1124
358

10%
6%
58%
3%
3%
58%
9%
49%
67%
58%
64%
82%

02.11.2015

Tablou de finantare - FIRMA

2. Tabloul fluxurilor de trezorerie

Utilizari de lichiditati (cash-out flow-uri) 2014 Resurse de lichiditati (cash-in flow-uri) 2014
1) plata dividendelor

358 1) fonduri provenite din activitatea curenta


(CAF)
2) emisiune de actiuni

2) rascumpararea capitalului social


3) cresterea bruta a activelor fixe
4) rambursarea datoriilor pe termen lung
TOTAL UTILIZARI SUPLIMENTARE PE
TERMEN LUNG

724 3) scaderea bruta a activelor fixe


4) cresterea datoriilor pe termen lung
1082 TOTAL RESURSE SUPLIMENTARE PE
TERMEN LUNG
FR
100 5) scaderea stocurilor
50 6) scaderea creantelor comerciale

5) cresterea stocurilor
6) cresterea creantelor comerciale
7) cresterea altor creante
8) scaderea datoriilor comerciale
9) scaderea altor datorii pe termen scurt
TOTAL UTILIZARI SUPLIMENTARE PE
TERMEN SCURT
NFR
TN = CF

10 7) scaderea altor creante


8) cresterea datoriilor comerciale
9) cresterea altor datorii pe termen scurt
160 TOTAL RESURSE SUPLIMENTARE PE
TERMEN SCURT
76
68

916

310
1226
144

58
26
84

Analiza financiara cash-flow-urile firmei

Tabloul fluxurilor de trezorerie


(Cash Flow Statement)
A ctivitile de
exploa tare
(operating
activities)

A ctivitile de
investiii
(investing
activities)
A ctivitile de
finanare
(financing
activities)

CF=CF de exploatare + CF de invetitii + CF de finantare

- principalele activiti generatoare de venituri i orice alte


activiti, cu ex cepia celor definite ca fiind activiti de
investiii sau de finanare
- exemple: ncasrile aferente vnzrilor de bunuri i servicii;
plile p rivin d furnizorii i salariaii; plile de impozite,
exceptnd cazu rile cnd acestea vizeaz activitile de investiii
sau de finanare
OBS: dobnzile pltite, n general, sunt cup rinse n categoria
activitilor de exploatare
- cuprind achiziionarea sau vnzarea de active pe termen lung
sau a altor in vestiii care nu sunt considerate cvasilichiditi

- cuprind activ itile care afecteaz mrimea i structura


capitalurilor proprii i a capitalu rilo r mpru mutate ale
ntreprind erii
- prezentarea separat este util pentru estimarea cererilor
viitoare de fluxuri din partea fin anatorilor ntrep rinderii
OBS: sunt incluse plile de dividende

Analiza financiara a cash-flow-urilor -

Tabloul fluxurilor de trezorerie


CF de exploatare
metoda directa
incasari din vanzari
(CA - creante comerciale)
plata aprovizionarilor
(ch.materii prime + stocuri meterii
prime - datorii comerciale)
plata salariilor
(ch.personal)
plata altor cheltuieli de exploatare
(alte ch.exploatare + alte creante alte datorii - rezultat extraordinar)
plata dobanzilor
(ch.financiare)
plata impozit pe profit
metoda indirecta
CAF
- NFR
- venituri financiare incasate

700
1320
312

100
0

80
128
700
916
76
140

CF de exploatare

(metoda directa) = incasari din exploatare


- plati de exploatare
(metoda indirecta) = CAF
- NFR
- venituri financiare

CF de investitii = pret vanzare imobilizari


= - imobilizari brute
- pret achizitionare imobilizari
+venituri financiare
+ venituri financiare
CF de finantare =
+
-

emisiune actiuni
dividende platite
noi credite
rambursari de credite

= cap.social (DCPR)
- dividende platite (-PN)
+ datorii financ

Analiza financiara a cash-flow-urilor


exemplu FIRMA

exemplu FIRMA

pret vanzare imobilizari


- pret achizitionare imobilizari
+ venituri financiare incasate
metoda indirecta
- imobilizari brute
+ venituri financiare incasate

-584
724
140

CF de finantare
metoda directa
emisiune de actiuni
- plata dividendelor
+ noi credite
- rambursari de credite
metoda indirecta
capital propriu
- profit net
+ datorii financiare

-48
314
672
310

CF

68

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

explic variaia trezoreriei n cadrul activitilor: de


exploatare (CFexploatare), de investiii (CFinvestiii) i
de finanare (CFfinanare)
Obiective:
evaluarea capacitii ntreprinderii de a degaja
lichiditi;
determinarea necesitilor de lichiditi;
previziunea scadenelor i a riscului ncasrilor
viitoare
compararea rezultatelor ntreprinderii, prin
eliminarea efectelor utilizrii diferitelor metode
contabile
CF= DTN = CFexploatare + CFinvestiii +
CFfinanare

CF de exploatare
CF de investitii
- imobilizari brute

FIRMA
700
-584
724

+ venituri financiare incasate

140

CF de finantare
emisiune de actiuni
- plata dividendelor
+ noi credite
- rambursari de credite
CF

-48

acelasi CF, dar cu alta structura de formare


A
B
C
D
E
F
68
268 -132
668
268
168
0
0
0
0 -300 -400
300
400
0

-200

358
310
68

200

-600

100

300
100

100

200

68

68

400
200
68

200
68

68

200
68

02.11.2015

CASH CYCLE

Achiziionare de materii prime


Comanda
materiilor prime

Vnzarea produselor
ncasarea produselor
finite
finite
Aprovizionarea cu
materii prime
Durata de rotaie a
Durata de ncasare
stocurilor
a clienilor
Durata de plat a
timp
furnizorilor
Plata furnizorilor de
materii prime
Ciclul operaional
Ciclul cash

Ciclul operaional intervalul de timp de la momentul


aprovizionrii cu stocuri i momentul ncasrilor din
vnzrile de produse finite.
Ciclul operaional = durata de rotaie a stocurilor
+ durata de ncasare a clienilor
Ciclul de conversie a numerarului reprezint
intervalul de timp de la momentul plii
aprovizionrilor pn la momentul ncasrilor din
vnzrile de produse finite.
Ciclul de conversie a numerarului = ciclul
operaional durata de plat a furnizorilor
Modalitati de optimizare a ciclului
de conversie a numerarului????

Managementul financiar al creantelor


Exemplu:
S analizm cazul firmei FLORA, care are contracte de vnzare
a produselor cu termenul de ncasare de 30 de zile.
n aceste condiii, firma realizeaz o cifr de afaceri de
10.000.000 lei i un profit de 4.000.000 lei.
La nivelul curent al cifrei de afaceri, firma nregistreaz o
perioad medie de rotaie prin cifra de afaceri a stocurilor
de 40 de zile i o perioad de plat a furnizorilor de 45 de
zile.
Schematiznd aceste termene de plat i de ncasare, se poate
determina ciclul cash (de conversie a numerarului):
Achiziionare de materii prime
Comanda
materiilor prime

Vnzarea produselor
ncasarea produselor
finite
finite
Aprovizionarea cu
materii prime
Termenul
Perioada de ncasare
stocurilor = 40 zile
a clienilor = 30zile
Perioada de plat a
timp
furnizorilor = 45 zile
Plata furnizorilor de
materii prime
Ciclul operaional = 70 zile
Ciclul cash = 25 zile

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

02.11.2015

Managementul financiar al creantelor

Managementul financiar al creantelor

Considernd c firma va adopta modificarea


perioadei de creditare numai dac va obine o
rentabilitate a investiiei suplimentare de 60%
(prag minim stabilit de firm), determinai
impactul modificrii perioadei de creditare n
dou situaii:
(1) perioada de creditare de 60 de zile se
aplic pentru toi clienii firmei;
(2) perioada de creditare de 60 de zile se
aplic numai pentru clienii noi.

Exemplu:
Urmrind creterea cotei de pia, firma analizeaz eficiena
modificrii perioadei de acordare de credite comerciale
clienilor la 60 de zile, estimnd c aceast relaxare a
termenelor de plat va genera o cretere a cifrei de afaceri
de 20%, n condiiile meninerii marjei de profit. Totodat
firma estimeaz o ncetinire a duratei de rotaie a
stocurilor cu 10 zile. Schematiznd aceste modificri ale
termenelor de plat i de ncasare, se poate determina ciclul
cash, a crui valoare crete cu 40 de zile:
Achiziionare de materii prime
Comanda
materiilor prime

Vnzarea produselor
ncasarea produselor
finite
finite
Aprovizionarea cu
materii prime
Termenul
Perioada de ncasare
stocurilor = 50 zile
a clienilor = 60zile
Perioada de plat a
timp
furnizorilor = 45 zile
Plata furnizorilor de
materii prime
Ciclul operaional = 110 zile
Ciclul cash = 65 zile

situatie initiala
CA
Profit
marja profit
stocuri
clienti
furnizori
NFR

Speeding up the cash


flow cycle

10,000,000
4,000,000
40%
1,111,111.11
833,333.33
1,250,000
694,444.44

situatie ulterioara
CA
Profit
stocuri
furnizori
clienti
clienti suplimentari
clienti actuali
NFR
profit suplimentar
investitie suplimentara
profit
suplim entar/investitie

a
b
12,000,000 12,000,000
4,800,000 4,800,000
1,666,667 1,666,667
1,500,000 1,500,000
2,000,000 1,166,667
333,333
333,333
1,666,667
833,333
2,166,667 1,333,333
800,000
800,000
1,472,222
638,889
28

54.3%

125.2%

1. CASH

2. BUSINESS INPUTS

29

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

Vnzarea produselor
ncasarea produselor
finite
finite
Aprovizionarea cu
materii prime
Termenul
Perioada de ncasare
stocurilor = 50 zile
a clienilor = 60zile
Perioada de plat a
timp
furnizorilor = 45 zile
Plata furnizorilor de
materii prime
Ciclul operaional = 110 zile
Ciclul cash = 65 zile

Managementul financiar al creantelor


termen de creditare
30 zile
pret unitar
160,000 lei
CA
10,000,000 mii lei
Profit
4,000,000 mii lei
durata rotatie stocuri
40 zile
durata plata furnizori
45 zile

Achiziionare de materii prime


Comanda
materiilor prime

30

02.11.2015

4. ACCOUNTS
RECEIVABLES

3. SALES

31

CASH FLOW MANAGEMENT

32

CASH RULES
Profit-ability vs. cashflow-ability
? Out of cash?
experience too rapid a rate of sales
growth
higher rates of cash consumption;
less time to regenerate cash supplies; and
greater risk for holders of both debt and
equity (bonds and stocks).

33

CASH RULES

CASH DRIVER

Money supply and velocity within a


company are both extremely sensitive to
market influences and management
decision making. As a result, they can
change enormously in the very short
term.
Generally speaking,the money supply and
its velocity will have more variability for
a smaller company than for a larger one.
35

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

34

#1: SALES GROWTH


#2: GROSS MARGIN
#3: SELLING, GENERAL &
ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSE (SG&A)
#4, 5, 6: ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE,
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE, AND
INVENTORY
#7: CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
36

02.11.2015

Analiza financiara cash-flow-uri pentru


evaluarea firmei

Analiza financiara cash-flow-uri pentru


evaluarea firmei

1. Cash-flow de gestiune este destinat remunerarii


actionarilor, creditorilor si firmei
CF de gestiune

3. cash-flow-ul disponibil CFD == free cash flow FCF


CFD
= CF de gestiune cresterea economica
= CFD pentru actionari + CFD pentru creditori

= PN + Cheltuieli cu amortizarea +
+ Cheltuieli cu dobanzi (1-t)

2. Cresterea economica reprezinta investitiile firmei


prin cumpararea de imobilizari si prin formarea
activului curent net
CE

CFD pentru actionari = Dividende capital social


= PN capital propriu
CFD pentru creditori = Dobanzi (1-t) Datorii financiare

= Imobilizari brute + ACN


= (Imobilizari nete+Cheltuieli cu amortizarea) +
+ ACN
37

38

Rata de actualizare utilizata in


evaluarea companiei- k

Valoarea companiei
(enterprise value)

Rata de actualizare cost de oportunitate (costul sansei pierdute)


De cele mai multe ori, persoanele fr o pregtire n domeniul financiar
i fac judecile de valoare pentru proiectele de investiii n funcie de
alte oportuniti de pe pia, comparnd rentabilitatea pe care orice
investiie o ofer (ipotetic) cu alte posibiliti de remunerare.

VA(AE)=VA(CPR)+VA(DAT)
VA(CPR) actualizarea CF actionarilor
VA(DAT) actualizarea CF creditorilor

39

Rata de actualizare utilizata in


evaluarea companiei- k

Spre exemplu, pot fi utilizate drept rate de actualizare


rata inflaiei,
rata rentabilitii fr risc,
rata dobnzii la depozite,
rata de rentabilitate a sectorului de activitate,
rata de rentabilitate medie din economie etc.:

40

Rata de actualizare utilizata in


evaluarea companiei- k

Rata de actualizare cost mediu ponderat al capitalului

Rata de actualizare cost mediu ponderat al capitalului

Ideea de baz a utilizrii acestei metode este dat de faptul c

De cele mai multe ori, costul mediu ponderat al capitalului se


calculeaz prin raportare la dou surse de finanare principale:
capitaluri proprii i, respectiv, mprumutate.

fiecare furnizor de capitaluri utilizate n finanarea proiectelor


de investiii solicit o anumit rentabilitate, ce se constituie ca
un cost pentru firm.
Procentual, acest cost poate fi exprimat sub forma:

kmpk k CPR

CPR
DAT
k DAT
AE
AE

kmpk x i k i
i 1

41

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

42

02.11.2015

Analiza financiara cash-flowuri pentru evaluarea firmei

VA(CPR )
t 1

CFDactiona rit Vn (CPR )

(1 k CPR ) t
(1 kCPR ) n

VA( DAT )
t 1

Valoarea intreprinderii

CFDcreditorit Vn ( DAT )

(1 k DAT ) t
(1 k DAT ) n
n

VA( AE) V0 (CPR) V0 (DAT)


t 1

CFDt
V ( AE)
n
(1 kAE )t (1 kAE )n

43

Cash flow return on gross investment (ROGI)


= CF operational / Active brute
= (PN+Amortizare) / (Active nete+Amortizare)
ROGI at times serves as a simple substitute for a periodic economic return, relating
operating cash flows to recorded operating assetswhich have been grossed up by
adding back accumulated depreciation to provide a surrogate for current values of
the asset base. It can be a useful approximation to a more rigorous cash flow analysis
in many situations, but could introduce some distortions because in effect it relies on
the original cost of assets of different ages as a broad surrogate for current value.
Cash flow return on investment (CFROI)
= EBITDA/capital employed
=CF/market value of capital employed
variante simple
= the internal rate of return over the life of the investment, based on operating cash
inflows, cash investment outflows, and cash recoveries. It involves a variety of
adjustments to arrive at operating cash flows and the cash value of the asset base
involved.
CFROI, in its most sophisticated form, is an economic return developed for the company
or its parts, representing an internal rate of return over the average life of the
operating assets involved. Its directly comparable to the cost of capital, and to the
results from cash-flow-based new investment analyses.
44

Analiza fluxurilor de trezorerie

SEMINAR 3
Analiza fluxurilor de trezorerie
Analiza financiara seminar
Master FABBV
2014-2015

TABLOUL DE FINANTARE
Resurse utilizari suplimentare pe termen lung /
scurt
SITUATIA FLUXURILOR DE TREZORERIE
Incasari / plati din activitatea de exploatare,
investitii, finantare

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Braoveanu

1.

Analiza financiara cash-flow-urile firmei

Tabloul de finanare
utilizari-resurse suplimentare
(Sources and Uses Statements)

CF=CF de exploatare + CF de invetitii + CF de finantare


CF de exploatare

Utilizri de lichiditi
(cash-out flow-uri):
1) plata dividendelor
2) creterea brut a activelor fixe
3) rscumprarea capitalului social
4) rambursarea datoriilor financiare
pe termen lung
5) creterea activelor temporare
(excluznd activele de trezorerie)
6) scderea pasivelor temporare
(excluznd pasivele de trezorerie)

Resurse de lichiditi
(cash-in flow-uri):
1) fonduri provenite din activitatea
curent (CAF)
2) emisiunea de aciuni
3) creterea datoriilor financiare pe
termen lung
4) scderea brut a activelor fixe

CF de investitii = pret vanzare imobilizari


= - imobilizari brute
- pret achizitionare imobilizari
+venituri financiare
+ venituri financiare
CF de finantare = emisiune actiuni
- dividende platite
+ noi credite
- rambursari de credite

5) creterea pasivelor temporare


(excluznd pasivele de trezorerie)
6) scderea activelor temporare
(excluznd activele de trezorerie)
47

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

(metoda directa) = incasari din exploatare


- plati de exploatare
(metoda indirecta) = CAF
- NFR
- venituri financiare

= cap.social
- dividende platite
+ datorii financ.

48

02.11.2015

Calculati si comparati CF pentru


companiile X si Y

Analiza cash flow-urilor


Studii de caz:

Compania X

Companiile X, Y concurente
intocmiti tabloul de finantare si
situatia cash flow-urilor si
interpretati (evolutie, comparatie)
Compania Apple - tabloul de
finantare si situatia cash flowurilor; comparatia ratelor calculate
pe baza CF

activ
Imob.corporale
Imob.financiare
total imob
stocuri prod.finite
clieni
alte creane expl.
lichiditi
TOTAL ACTIV

N N+1 N+2 N+3 pasiv


N N+1 N+2
22 24 26 27 capitaluri proprii
69 82 92
17 29 31 33 dat.t.lg.
1
5
9
39 53 57 60 capital permanent 70 87 101
9 22 22 24 furnizori
8
9
8
21 21 18 27 ali cred.expl
19 14 13
6
8
6
7 credite de trezorerie
8 10
4
30 16 23 49
105 120 126 167 TOTAL PASIV
105 120 126

49

N+3
103
13
116
16
27
8
167

50

CF pe baza bilantului
compania Y
activ
Imob.corporale
Imob.financiare
total imob
stocuri prod.fin.
clieni
alte creane expl.
lichiditi
TOTAL ACTIV

N N+1 N+2 N+3 pasiv


N N+1 N+2 N+3
43
66
86 106 capitaluri proprii 53
62
71
84
1
3
14
15 dat.t.lg.
15
27
45
55
44
69 100 121 capital permanent
68
89 116 139
21
34
46
52 furnizori
46
34
42
58
78
98 104 141 ali cred.expl
31
27
38
45
15
14
17
17 credite de trezorerie14
66
71
90
1
1
0
1
159 216 267 332 TOTAL PASIV 159 216 267 332

compania X
N N+1 N+2
CA(fr TVA)
102 127 109
+creterea stocurilor
-2
13
0
-aprov.teri
39
65
40
-alte ch.externe
13
19
18
=valoare adugat
48
56
51
-salarii
16
19
20
= EBE
32
37
31
-amortizare
5
5
5
-prov.expl.
5
7
5
=rezultat exploatare
22
25
21
-ch.financiare
1
2
3
=rezultat curent
21
23
18
+rezultat extraordinar
-2
2
-1
=rezultat brut
19
25
17
-impozit pe profit
12
16
10
=rezultat net
7
9
7
capacitate de autofinanare
17
21
17
dividende
2
3
2
autofinanare
15
18
15

N+3
162
2
84
23
57
23
34
5
4
25
3
22
1
23
13
10
19
3
16

Compania X
FR
DFR
NFR
DNFR
CF

N N+1 N+2 N+3


31 34 44 56
3 10 12
9 28 25 15
19
-3 -10
-16 13 22

51

Compania Y
FR
DFR
NFR
DNFR
CF

compania Y
N N+1 N+2 N+3
208 258 322 415
-3
13
12
6
73 104 125 157
28
36
44
54
104 131 165 210
69
88 106 134
35
43
59
76
16
19
24
30
0
4
3
3
19
20
32
43
2
4
8
9
17
16
24
34
0
4
1
0
17
20
25
34
9
10
12
19
8
10
13
15
24
33
40
48
6
5
7
5
18
28
33
43 53

compania X
N N+1 N+2
CA(fr TVA)
102 127 109
+creterea stocurilor
-2
13
0
-aprov.teri
39
65
40
-alte ch.externe
13
19
18
=valoare adugat
48
56
51
-salarii
16
19
20
= EBE
32
37
31
-amortizare
5
5
5
-prov.expl.
5
7
5
=rezultat exploatare
22
25
21
-ch.financiare
1
2
3
=rezultat curent
21
23
18
+rezultat extraordinar
-2
2
-1
=rezultat brut
19
25
17
-impozit pe profit
12
16
10
=rezultat net
7
9
7
capacitate de autofinanare
17
21
17
dividende
2
3
2
autofinanare
15
18
15

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

N N+1 N+2 N+3


24
20
16
18
-4
-4
2
37
85
87 107
48
2
20
-52
-6 52-18

N+3
162
2
84
23
57
23
34
5
4
25
3
22
1
23
13
10
19
3
16

compania Y
N N+1 N+2 N+3
208 258 322 415
-3
13
12
6
73 104 125 157
28
36
44
54
104 131 165 210
69
88 106 134
35
43
59
76
16
19
24
30
0
4
3
3
19
20
32
43
2
4
8
9
17
16
24
34
0
4
1
0
17
20
25
34
9
10
12
19
8
10
13
15
24
33
40
48
6
5
7
5
18
28
33
43 54

02.11.2015

societatea X
N+1 N+2 N+3
N+1 N+2 N+3
Alocri
Resurse
18 15 16
cretere Imob.corp.
7
7 6 autofinanare
cretere Imob.financ. 12
2 2 noi credite t.lg
4 4 4
19
9 8
22 19 20
FR suplimentar
3 10 12
cretere stocuri
13
0 2 scadere clienti
3
cretere clieni
0
9 scadere alte creante
2
cretere alte creane
2
1 cretere furnizori
1
8
scadere furnizori
1
cretere ali creditori
14
scadere alti creditori
5
1
20
2 12
1 5 22
NFR suplimentar
19 -3 -10
cretere lichiditi
Lichid.suplim.
-16 13 22

tabloul de finantare
societatea X
N+1 N+2 N+3
N+1 N+2 N+3
Alocri
Resurse
18 15 16
cretere Imob.corp.
7
7 6 autofinanare
cretere Imob.financ. 12
2 2 noi credite t.lg
4 4 4
19
9 8
22 19 20
FR suplimentar
3 10 12
cretere stocuri
13
0 2 scadere clienti
3
cretere clieni
0
9 scadere alte creante
2
cretere alte creane
2
1 cretere furnizori
1
8
scadere furnizori
1
cretere ali creditori
14
scadere alti creditori
5
1
20
2 12
1 5 22
NFR suplimentar
19 -3 -10

55

56

tabloul de finantare
societatea Y
Alocri
N+1 N+2 N+3 Resurse
N+1 N+2 N+3
28 33 43
cretere Imob.corp.
42 44 50 autofinanare
cretere Imob.financ.
2 11 1 noi credite t.lg
12 18 10
44 55 51
40 51 53
FR suplimentar
-4 -4 2
cretere stocuri
13 12 6 cretere furnizori
8 16
cretere clieni
20
6 37 cretere ali creditori
11 7
cretere alte creane
3 0 scadere alte creante 1
scadere furnizori
12
scadere alti creditori
4
49 21 43
1 19 23
NFR suplimentar
48
2 20
TN suplim.
-52 -6 -18

tabloul de finantare
societatea Y
Alocri
N+1 N+2 N+3 Resurse
N+1 N+2 N+3
28 33 43
cretere Imob.corp.
42 44 50 autofinanare
cretere Imob.financ.
2 11 1 noi credite t.lg
12 18 10
44 55 51
40 51 53
FR suplimentar
-4 -4 2
cretere stocuri
13 12 6 cretere furnizori
8 16
cretere clieni
20
6 37 cretere ali creditori
11 7
cretere alte creane
3 0 scadere alte creante 1
scadere furnizori
12
scadere alti creditori
4
49 21 43
1 19 23
NFR suplimentar
48
2 20
TN suplim.
-52 -6 -18

57

58

PROIECT
CAF
-crestere NFR
CF operational
noi credite
-dividende
CF finantare

N+1

N+2 N+3

21
19
2

17 19
-3 -10
20 29

N+1 N+2 N+3

33
48
-15

4
3
1

4
2
2

4
3
1

-cump.imob.corporale
7
-cump.imob.financiare 12
CF investitii
-19

7
2
-9

6
2
-8

42 44 50
2 11
1
-44 -55 -51

CF total

13

22

-52

-16

12
5
7

40 48
2 20
38 28
18
7
11

10
5
5

-6 -18
59

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

Cash Flow Statement


Cash Flow-Operating Activities
Cash Flow- Investing Activities
Cash Flow-Financing Activities
Net Change in Cash
Sources and Uses Statements
- de intocmit
60

10

02.11.2015

APPLE

APPLE
2003
69,000

2004
266,000

2005
1,328,000

2006
1,989,000

2007
3,495,000

Depreciation/Depletion

113,000

150,000

179,000

225,000

327,000

Depreciation/Depletion

Deferred Taxes

(11,000)

19,000

50,000

53,000

73,000

Deferred Taxes

Non-Cash Items

(1,000)

131,000

486,000

174,000

254,000

Non-Cash Items

Net Income/Starting Line

119,000

368,000

289,000
(164,000)

934,000
(176,000)

Other Investing Cash Flow Items, Total992,000


828,000
Cash from Investing Activities
(26,000)

Changes in Working Capital


Cash from Operating Activities
Capital Expenditures

Other Financing Cash Flow

492,000

2008
6,119,000

Net Income/Starting Line

1,321,000

2,535,000 2,220,000
(260,000) (657,000)

5,470,000
(986,000)

(1,312,000)

(2,296,000)

1,014,000

(2,263,000)

(1,488,000)

(2,556,000)

357,000

(3,249,000)

6,000

374,000

2010
14,013,000

2011
25,922,000

2012
41,733,000

496,000

734,000

1,027,000

1,814,000

3,277,000

398,000

1,040,000

1,440,000

2,868,000

4,405,000
1,740,000

538,000

736,000

903,000

1,168,000

2,045,000

(586,000)

1,212,000

5,757,000

(299,000)

9,596,000
(1,199,000)

10,159,000
(1,213,000)

18,595,000
(2,121,000)

37,529,000
(7,452,000)

50,856,000
(9,402,000)

(6,990,000)
Other Investing Cash Flow Items, Total
(8,189,000)
Cash from Investing Activities

(16,221,000)

(11,733,000)

(32,967,000)

(38,825,000)

(17,434,000)

(13,854,000)

(40,419,000)

(48,227,000)

633,000

188,000

345,000

613,000

125,000

(2,488,000)

Changes in Working Capital

(221,000)

2009
8,235,000

Cash from Operating Activities


Capital Expenditures

Other Financing Cash Flow


Total Cash Dividends Paid

Total Cash Dividends Paid


Issuance (Retirement) of Stock, Net

53,000

427,000

543,000

318,000

Issuance (Retirement) of Debt, Net

(300,000)

27,000
1,144,000

127,000
(427,000)

543,000
522,000

324,000
2,901,000

739,000
2,960,000

2,252,000
3,396,000
Net Cash - Beginning Balance -- cash and
equivalents
(BS)
3,396,000
2,969,000
Net Cash - Ending Balance

2,969,000

3,491,000

6,392,000

3,491,000

6,392,000

9,352,000

2,275,000

1,563,000

4,484,000

Cash from Financing Activities


Net Change in Cash

125,000

Free Cash Flow

758,000

483,000

475,000

912,000

831,000

665,000

1,116,000
2,523,000

663,000
(6,612,000)

1,257,000
5,998,000

1,444,000
(1,446,000)

(1,698,000)
931,000

9,352,000
Net Cash - Beginning Balance -- cash and
equivalents11,875,000
(BS)
11,875,000
5,263,000
Net Cash - Ending Balance

5,263,000

11,261,000

9,815,000

11,261,000

9,815,000

10,746,000

16,474,000

30,077,000

62
41,454,000

Issuance (Retirement) of Stock, Net

365,000

Issuance (Retirement) of Debt, Net


Cash from Financing Activities
Net Change in Cash

61

8,397,000

Free Cash Flow

8,946,000

APPLE dinamica CF

APPLE CASH FLOW

63

Uses-Sources
- APPLE

2003

2004

2005

2006

SHO RT TERM

2007

27 6000

1 958000

2999000

236000 0

1 1000

45000

64000

10500 0

7 6000

increase receivables

20 1000

8000

121000

35700 0

38 5000

159300 0

79 9000

276000
5 8000

128000

941000

2630000

2733000

5305000

128000

853000

2352000

2556000

4548000

88000

278000

177000

757000

970 00

328000

67000

221000

1480000

695000

67000

221000

1480000

695000

decrease equity
decrease long t erm debt

310000

increase long t erm assets

18000

6000

3 1000

-200000

874000

2409000

1253000

4610000

201 0

2 011

657000

1112000

400800 0

286 8000

decrease other r eceivables

11,1 85,00 0

18 ,4 66,00 0

3 3,94 0,000

49 ,1 21 ,0 00 decrease account s payable

7,76 5,00 0

9,34 3,00 0

16 ,1 51,00 0

2 8,82 4,000

97 8,00 0

1,84 2,00 0

2,3 15,00 0

5,11 6,000

41 ,5 95 ,0 00 decrease accrued expenses


7 ,5 26 ,0 00

2,77 4,00 0

9,78 1,00 0

17 ,5 59,00 0

3 7,87 8,000

47 ,0 28 ,0 00 SO URCES

in crease lo ng t erm assets

2,77 4,00 0

9,78 1,00 0

17 ,5 59,00 0

3 7,87 8,000

47 ,0 28 ,0 00

D FR

5,96 9,00 0

1,40 4,00 0

9 07,00 0

-3,93 8,000

2 ,0 93 ,0 00

SHO RT TERM

decrease lon g t erm debt

decrease other receivables

91 5000

increase account s payable

24 3000

D NFR
D NFR cu IF t s c
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

1,144,000

-427,000

522,000

2,901,000

2,960,000

105200 0
297000

328000

161100 0

94000

190000

22700 0

158 0000

2 ,813,000

1,414 ,000

1,460,00 0

2,498 ,000

1,778,00 0

2,246 ,000

7,664,00 0

10,572 ,000

58 ,000
7,96 5,000

27,000

2,191 ,000

9 78,000

1 3,367,000

54,000

275,00 0
141,00 0

110 ,000

5 86,000

1 66000

309000
3 ,842,000

increase account s payable

550 ,000

increase accrued expenses

548 ,000

81,000

6 ,414,000

2,617,00 0

300,000

835,00 0

6,543 ,000
85 5,000

91,000

2 ,502,000

3,796,00 0

3,174 ,000

-756 ,000

51,000

-1 ,249,000

-4,270,00 0

-1,084 ,000

3,446 ,000

8,0 16,000

-5 ,091,000

-2,492,00 0

1,162 ,000

increase short term debt


207000

318000

111800 0

increase other current


liabilities

128 8000

-42 9,000

-24,000

-388,000

-596,0 00

-666 ,000

-1,34 4,000

1,3 01,000

1,887,000

-1,648,00 0

1,650 ,000

65

D NFR
D NFR cu IF t s c
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

C F = D FR - D NFR

2,523,000

-6,612,000

5,998,000

-1,446,000

931,000

2,523,000

-6,612,000

5,998,000

-1,446,000

931,000

2,523,000

-6,612,000

5,998,000

-1,446,000

931,000

Net Change in Cash

1,144,000

-427,000

522,000

2,901,000

2,960,000

Net Change in Cash

D cash

1,144,000

-427,000

522,000

2,901,000

2,960,000

D cash

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

63,000

15 ,000
5,561 ,000
1,934,00 0

decrease other cur.assets

decrease short term


investments

15 8000

429 ,000

4,202 ,000

decrease receivables

decrease prepaid expenses

increase other current


liabilities

2 ,718,000

decrease invento ry

59000

30 4000

11,734 ,000

596,000

decrease other current


liabilities

decrease short term


investments

increase short term debt

5,172,00 0

2 ,149,000

decrease short term debt

decrease prepaid expenses

increase accrued expenses

8 ,276,000

9 39,000

785 ,000

8,74 3,00 0

276000

decrease other cur.assets

8,9 94,000

163 ,000

in crease equity

decrease equity

162 0000

5,637 ,000

increase receivables

investments

USES

decrease receivables

2012

20 12 increase short term

decrease lon g t erm asset s

decrease invento ry

201 1

increase invento ry

LO NG TERM

LO NG TERM

2010

increase other receivables

SO URCES

in crease lo ng t erm debt

304000

SO URCES
SHO RT TERM

SHO RT TERM

increase prepaid expenses


200 9

2009

USES

increase other cur.assets


2 00 8

2 008
SO URCES

20 9000
2316 000

decrease accoun ts payable


decrease accrued expenses

Uses-Sources
- APPLE

70 2000

2275000

decrease other current


liabilities

US ES

C F = D FR - D NFR

451 8000

20800 0
1 325000

decrease short term debt

decrease long t erm asset s

539000

increase prepaid expenses


increase short term
investments

increase equit y

D FR

2 007

increase invento ry

increase other receivables

LO NG TERM

LO NG TERM

20 06

USES

SO URCES

increase long t erm debt

2005

SO URCES

increase other cur.assets


2003

2004

64

983 ,000

66

11

02.11.2015

Peers comparison

CF Apple comparison peers


2003
25.26%
221.11%
418.84%
72.38%
-428.57%
2.36%
-74.29%
-2072.41%
-248.81%

CF operational/CF
D% CF operational
CF operational/net profit
CF investing/CF
D% CF investing
CF financial/CF
D% CF financial
D% CF
D% FCF

2004
-218.74%
223.18%
351.13%
348.48%
-279.71%
-29.74%
370.37%
-137.33%
506.40%

2008
380.34%
75.43%
156.82%
-324.57%
152.05%
44.23%
51.01%
-14.76%
87.27%

CF operational/CF
D% CF operational
CF operational/net profit
CF investing/CF
D% CF investing
CF financial/CF
D% CF financial
D% CF
D% FCF

2005
485.63%
171.41%
190.89%
-489.66%
71.77%
104.02%
327.56%
-222.25%
200.13%

2009
-153.64%
5.87%
123.36%
263.67%
112.90%
-10.03%
-40.59%
-362.07%
6.54%

2006
76.53%
-12.43%
111.61%
12.31%
-113.97%
11.17%
-40.33%
455.75%
-31.30%

2010
310.02%
83.04%
132.70%
-230.98%
-20.53%
20.96%
89.59%
-190.71%
84.15%

2007
184.80%
146.40%
156.51%
-109.76%
-1010.08%
24.97%
128.09%
2.03%
186.88%

2011
-2595.37%
101.82%
144.78%
2795.23%
191.75%
-99.86%
14.88%
-124.11%
82.57%

Ratios - Key Metrics


Cash Cycle (Days)
Ratios - Profit/Value/Risk -- VALUE
Hist EV/FCF,
Hist EV/OCF,
Hist EV/FOCF

2012
5462.51%
35.51%
121.86%
-5180.13%
19.32%
-182.38%
-217.59%
-164.38%
67
37.83%

Peers comparison
cash cycle

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Hist Price/CF/Shr,
Hist Price/FCF/Shr,
Hist Price/OCF/Shr,
Hist Price/FOCF/Shr

68

Peers comparison
Hist EV/FCF

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Apple

196

38

29

36

42

17

18

19

17

18

Hewlett -P ackard

29

17

39

18

21

13

14

12

11

51

Dell

28

42

33

18

20

13

10

-19

-18

Cisco Syst ems

29

24

17

16

21

13

15

12

Mot orola Solut ions

19

10

64

11

15

25

75

77

Intel

29

17

25

61

34

42

56

13

28

41

55

77

98

Nokia

19

20

26

19

18

17

26

52

46

51

Google

257

125

75

73

24

24

27

21

18

AP PLE (rank)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Apple

-40

-34

-29

-28

-35

-30

-31

-32

-34

-36

Hewlet t-Packard

63

62

59

52

52

51

48

45

50

Dell

-41

-41

-40

-38

-36

-33

-22

-23

Cisco Systems

49

51

56

55

53

48

46

58

Motorola Solutions

68

41

32

33

181

163

109

Intel

56

51

51

65

55

47

49

Nokia

35

35

29

25

29

42

46

29

29

30

average

50

53

38

31

37

20

20

17

15

19

Google

11

21

21

21

27

32

37

39

39

35

median

APPLE (rank)

average

25

23

23

23

41

40

35

28

33

36

29
23.77,
28.58,
28.89

22
17.35,
21.77,
38.94

28
23.34,
27.56,
34.39

19
17.78,
18.93,
42.17

28
20.98,
27.87,
47.52

17
12.96,
16.82,
20.64

15
12.82,
14.77,
21.11

14
12.04,
14.05,
20.64

14
9.05,
14.31,
19.93

18
9.61,
18.21,
22.98

q1

q2

q2

q2

q2

q2

q2

q2

q2

q3

quart ile
q

median

42
38
31
29
40
44
46
42
43
43
-2, 7.23, 8.78, 8.35, 11.15, 16.4, 22.25, 16.28, 17.13, 17.95,
42.2, 38.05, 30.9, 28.9, 40.2, 44.35, 46.15, 42.15, 42.7, 43.3,
57.35 50.93 52.5 52.5 53.45 48.35 48.5 52.5 55.98 57.73

quartile
q

q4

q4

q4

q4

q4

q4

q4

q4

q4

q4

69

70

Peers comparison
Hist EV/OCF
Apple

Peers comparison

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

12

10

14

25

22

10

14

13

12

Hist EV /FOCF

2003

2004

2005

200 6

200 7

20 08

2 009

2 010

2011

2012

Apple

27

12

16

36

26

11

16

15

12

15

20

24

14

12

23

13

15

10

Hewlett-Packard

10

10

14

Hewlet t-P ackard

Dell

16

22

16

13

11

Dell

18

30

17

15

14

11

Cisco Systems

24

19

14

12

16

10

10

Cisco Systems

27

21

15

14

18

10

11

12

Motorola Solution s

15

15

26

Intel

26

16

20

44

28

26

28

12

19

35

Nokia

Motorola Solutions

10

22

13

3
6

12

13

Intel

16

10

10

11

Nokia

10

13

12

12

13

10

Google

50

46

37

35

10

19

14

12

11

APPLE (rank)

average

14

17

16

15

18

10

11

median

12
10.07,
11.51,
16.29

10
9.49,
9.88,
19.76

14
9.14,
13.6,
14.68

12
9.76,
12.16,
15.72

15
11.76,
14.73,
21.7

9
8.27,
9.45,
10.89

9
8.9, 9.48,

8
5.75, 7.6,

11.18

7
4.87,
7.22,
11.06

9.9

5
4.52,
5.05,
11.62

q2

q3

q2

q1

q2

q2

q1

q1

q2

q1

quartile
q

71

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

16

18

30

25

18

31 8

27

Google

79

71

78

60

15

20

23

15

14

APP LE (rank)

average

21

26

24

29

27

57

17

12

11

16

median

20
17 .09,
19 .73,
26.1 5

19
1 4.91,
1 9.35,
25.74

17
14.94,
16.69,
22 .12

20
13.31,
19.87,
37 .83

23
18.03,
22.7,
2 7.44

11
10.68 ,
11.08 ,
20.37

15
12.5 3,
15.1 8,
22.01

12
8.15 ,
11.7 3,
14.74

11
7.9 9,
11.05,
14.33

14
6.68, 1 4.3,

q1

q4

q3

q2

q2

q3

q2

q2

q2

q2

quartile
q

20.6

72

12

02.11.2015

Peers comparison

Peers comparison
Hist EV /FOCF

2003

2004

2005

200 6

200 7

20 08

2 009

2 010

2011

2012

Apple

27

12

16

36

26

11

16

15

12

15

Hist Price/CF/Shr

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Hewlet t-P ackard

20

24

14

12

23

13

15

10

Apple

29.75

41.55

34.73

30.25

30.51

35.90

17.66

18.60

18.15

13.65

14.01

Dell

18

30

17

15

14

11

Hewlet t-Packard

33

13

10

17

13

14

Cisco Systems

27

21

15

14

18

10

11

12

Dell

49

27

30

31

18

17

13

11

Motorola Solution s

15

15

26

Cisco Syst ems

23

27

24

19

16

21

14

16

14

10

Intel

26

16

20

44

28

26

28

12

19

35

Mot orola Solutions

13

11

17

13

20

14

15

Nokia

16

18

30

25

18

31 8

27

Int el

19

12

12

12

13

12

Google

79

71

78

60

15

20

23

15

14

Nokia

15

14

13

15

12

13

16

189

APP LE (rank)

96

69

39

42

17

25

19

18

17

average

21

26

24

29

27

57

17

12

11

16

APPLE (rank)

median

average

27

22

29

25

19

22

12

14

13

33

11

26
17.18,
26.31,
32.14

19
13.52,
19.39,
27.19

18
11.66,
18.44,
31.27

18
14.42,
18,
30.56

15
12.34,
14.64,
21.08

17
13.93,
17.43,
24.54

13
8.3,
12.87,
15.6

14
11.46,
14.4,
16.83

12
8.77,
12.42,
18.46

12
7.07,
11.78,
15.23

11
7.53,
10.99,
14.94

19
1 4.91,
1 9.35,
25.74

17
14.94,
16.69,
22 .12

20
13.31,
19.87,
37 .83

23
18.03,
22.7,
2 7.44

11
10.68 ,
11.08 ,
20.37

15
12.5 3,
15.1 8,
22.01

12
8.15 ,
11.7 3,
14.74

11
7.9 9,
11.05,
14.33

14
6.68, 1 4.3,

median

20
17 .09,
19 .73,
26.1 5
q1

q4

q3

q2

q2

q3

q2

q2

q2

q2

q2

q1

q1

q2

q1

q1

q1

q1

q2

q2

q2

Google

quart ile
q

quartile
q

73

74

Peers comparison

Peers comparison
Hist Price/OCF/Shr

2002

Apple

59.17

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

26.02

15.47

17.98

30.43

24.95

12.06

16.28

14.54

10.09

12.40

11

11

10

10

15

Dell

19

18

24

18

15

13

12

10

Cisco Systems

13

26

21

17

14

18

11

13

13

Motorola Solutions

11
12

10

28

21

15

17

16

18

12

10

11

13

10

12

12

12

16

14

13

13

10

12

54

49

40

38

12

21

17

15

14

17

10

10

Hist Price/CF/Shr

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Hewlett-P ackard

Apple

29.75

41.55

34.73

30.25

30.51

35.90

17.66

18.60

18.15

13.65

14.01

Hewlet t-Packard

33

13

10

17

13

14

Dell

49

27

30

31

18

17

13

11

Intel

Cisco Syst ems

23

27

24

19

16

21

14

16

14

10

Mot orola Solutions

11

17

13

20

14

15

Google

Int el

13

19

12

12

12

13

12

APP LE (rank)

Nokia

15

Nokia
-

14

13

15

12

13

16

189

average

19

Google

96

69

39

42

17

25

19

18

17

median

12

APPLE (rank)

average

27

22

29

25

19

22

12

14

13

33

11

median

26
17.18,
26.31,
32.14

19
13.52,
19.39,
27.19

18
11.66,
18.44,
31.27

18
14.42,
18,
30.56

15
12.34,
14.64,
21.08

17
13.93,
17.43,
24.54

13
8.3,
12.87,
15.6

14
11.46,
14.4,
16.83

12
8.77,
12.42,
18.46

12
7.07,
11.78,
15.23

11
7.53,
10.99,
14.94

q2

q1

q1

q2

q1

q1

q1

q1

q2

q2

q2

quart ile
q

quartile
q

18
11.85,
17.83,
11.45, 12.48, 16.3
21.97
q1

q1

19

18

18

20

12

13

14
11.54,
13.89,
21.87

17
10.33,
16.51,
18.02

14
10.83,
14.24,
18.92

16
13.4,
16.28,
25.72

12
10.44,
11.82,
12.61

12
10.16,
11.61,
15.35

q2

q2

q1

q2

q2

q1

2002
-

13.58

12.86

13.27

q1

q2

q2

CF - peers

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

60.16

19.06

20.04

43.22

30.44

13.78

18.49

16.41

12.59

16.18

14

Hewlett-P ackard

13

22

29

16

14

25

13

Dell

21

20

32

20

18

17

15

13

Cisco Systems

22

30

23

18

16

21

13

14

15

11

10

Motorola Solutions

36
28

15

13

23

31

28

19

22

49

32

31

32

15

22

39

20

20

23

36

29

20

325

29

11

85

75

85

65

18

23

27

19

18

Intel
Nokia
Google
APP LE (rank)

#VALUE!

average

24

median

22

quartile
q

28

22
19.88,
22.15,
20.27, 21.61, 26.93
29.13
q1

q1

76

Peers comparison
Apple

8
9
7
6.48, 7.74, 6.42, 9.45, 5.72, 7.38,

75

Hist Price/FOCF/Shr

20.6

2003

2004

200 5

2006

2007

2008

20 09

2010

2011

2012

cash cycle

-40.40

-34.10

-29.10

-28.10

-34.90

-29.80

-30 .60

-32.30

-33.70

-35.60

Hist EV/FCF

195.62

38.05

29.00

35.79

42.08

1 7.15

18.31

18.95

17.2 4

18.04

Hist EV/OCF

11.51

9.78

14.27

25.10

21.66

9 .57

13.84

13.02

9.3 2

11.75

Hist EV/FOCF

26.60

12.05

15.90

35.65

26.43

1 0.93

15.72

14.70

11.6 3

15.33

Hist Price/CF/Shr

41.55

34.73

30.25

30.51

35.90

1 7.66

18.60

18.15

13.6 5

14.01

442.36

60.19

36.56

43.39

48.47

2 1.61

21.54

21.16

18.6 7

19.04

30

27

33

30

61

21

14

13

18

Hist Price/FCF/Shr

23
18.92,
23.34,
29.58

20
17.8,
19.95,
25.58

24
15.42,
23.68,
44.55

25
20.18,
24.5,
31.08

15
13.28,
14.67,
24.39

21
14.05,
20.89,
24.85

14
10.16,
14.47,
15.26

12
8.54,
11.68,
17.39

16
8.15,
16.18,
24.52

Hist Price/OCF/Shr

26.02

15.47

17.98

30.43

24.95

1 2.06

16.28

14.54

10.0 9

12.40

Hist Price/FOCF/Shr

60.16

19.06

20.04

43.22

30.44

1 3.78

18.49

16.41

12.5 9

16.18

q3

q2

q2

q2

q3

q3

q1

q2

q2

77

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

13

02.11.2015

Teme / sugestii / recomandari


90.00

70.00

cash cycle

50.00

Hist EV/FCF

PROIECT analiza pe baza situatiei fluxurilor de


trezorerie
http://www.ssrn.com/en/
Recomandare carte Kahneman Thinking, Fast and Slow ,
Kahneman

Hist EV/OCF
30.00

Hist EV/FOCF
Hist Price/CF/Shr
Hist Price/FCF/Shr

10.00

2011

2012

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2001

2003

2002

1999

1998

2000

1997

1996

1995

1994

1991

1993

1992

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

Hist Price/OCF/Shr

-10.00

Hist Price/FOCF/Shr

A nva nseamn a descoperi

c ceva este posibil.

-30.00

-50.00

79

Prof.dr. Laura Obreja Brasoveanu

Muzica Tarja Turunen


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeUjfxTkgfY

(Fritz Perls)
Seara frumoasa
in continuare!

14

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