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Statistica Pentru Studii de Marketing Si Administrarea Afacerilor PDF
Statistica Pentru Studii de Marketing Si Administrarea Afacerilor PDF
Daniela erban
1 Particulariti ale studiului pieei
n contextul dezvoltrii economiei de pia
Tabel 1.1
FUNCIILE MARKETINGULUI DESCRIERE
A. Funcii de cunoatere
B. Funcia de inovare
C. Funcii de transfer
D. Funcii de distribuie
E. Funcii de susinere
a afacerii, adiionale
activitii principale
F. Funcii de informare
Director
Figura 1.a
Producie Proiectare Financiar Personal Vnzri Activiti de
inclusiv: marketing
inclusiv: n cadrul
*
*
publicitate cercetare de
* pia compartimentelor
politici de produs tradiionale ale
*
informare unei companii
Director
Figura 1.b
Producie Cercetare Finane Personal Vnzri Activiti de
inclusiv: marketing
*
cercetare de concentrate
pia ntr-un
*
distribuie compartiment
*
politici de preexistent de
produs vnzri
*
promovare
Director
Director
Anii 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
PIB
28861,9 19577,8 26352,3 30072,8 35477,9 26862,6 31525,0 33628,0 34403,8
real
Sursa: Anuarul statistic al INS, 1990 2001
PIB = 100%
Din care:
Total VA n PIB 94,2 95,8 102,8 96,9 96,3 95,3 95,5 92,5 90,4 90
VAB = 100%
Din care:
VA. agricultur n total VA 23,2 19,6 18,6 21,7 20,7 20,8 20,1 19,5 16,2 15,4
VA industrie n total VA 43 39,6 37,3 34,9 37,6 34,5 34,8 33,4 30,4 31,0
VA construcii n total VA 5,7 4,5 4,7 5,4 6,7 6,9 6,8 5,6 5,9 5,3
VA servicii n total VA 28,1 36,3 39,4 38 35 37,8 38,3 41,5 47,5 48,2
and having an "industrial" character and not a consumable one. It means the
buyers are companies and not private persons.
The role of the marketing expert, either employed by the economic
agent or independent counselor, is to ensure information to the operational
managers, expressed through specific services and assistance in taking an
employment decision and the occupation of available working places. The
final decision always belongs to the operational manager of the company.
The expert is just providing information to the management system.
The results of the experts have proved to be superior to the ones
obtained by the employees from the marketing departments of the economic
agents. These types of activities have initially appeared and developed in the
United States of America, being known as composing the marketing
services market.
In the present day, the relation between the demand and supply on
the Romanian marketing research market is relatively disproportional, the
firms in this field do not rely their offer mainly on the market's demand, but
more on their own possibilities of organizing these activities. That is why
the identification and clarification of the economic agent's demand with
regard to preference and also the need of training the employees, is a
necessity, which can be realized by organizing periodical studies through a
research with the purpose of estimating and evaluating the demand. Market
investigation can be done by experts, specialized companies or by the
manufacturers. In this case the economic agent should comprise marketing
activities within its own organizational chart. Different possibilities are
presented in the following organizational charts in
Figure 1.1.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
Manager
Figura 1.a
Sales Marketing
Production Strategies Financial Personnel
activities within a
comprising: comprising: traditional
* * market
advertising department of a
* research
product policies company
*
information system - distribution
activities
Manager
Figura 1.b
Production Research Finance Personnel Sales Marketing
comprising activities within the
also: Sales dept.
market study,
distribution
policies,
promotion
Manager
Director
Figura 1.d
Marketing
Sales Director Marketing Director activities within a
special department
Sales Market Marketing Product different from Sales
Sales Administration strategies studies Management
Marketing Director
Figura 1.e
Product Manager Integrated
Marketing
activities within a
Transport Sales Sales planning Marketing Strategic global Marketing
administration studies plans department
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
The start of the transition towards the market oriented economy was
more difficult in Romania then in other ex-socialist Central-European
countries. The economy was almost entirely state owned. In forming the
Gross Domestic Product, the contribution of the private sector was in 1989
of only 12.8%.
Before 1989, the communist centralized system, which was not
taking into account the efficiency criteria and the rational use of resources,
could not take further decision according to the market's information. The
achievement of productivity in over-dimensioned units brought to the
market's relations a high level of rigidity. The economy's inefficiency was
worsen in the 1980s by investments in the energetic branches and by
stopping the Western technological investment, as an effect of the
anticipated forced repayment of the external debt. The weak motivation for
work, doubled by the artificial politics of "full occupation", made worse the
competitivity of the Romanian products in the world.
Analyzing the macroeconomics synthetic aggregates after 1989,
between 1990 and 2002, it would be found out the important changes that
happened in the economical and social aspects; one will notice also the
recorded delays concerning the market mechanisms promotion used for the
hypothesis preparation for a long last development of the Romanian
society. The expected revulsion is of course the investment factor. During
the last ten years the branches that had been developed, thanks to the
investments, represents the source of the demand of human resources
services.
On the basis of setting up the states norms and institutions, activities
and the organizations of the civil society, the creation of the normative
framework of the new market mechanisms, as liberalization of price, and
new markets development, as banking, stock, financial and insurance
markets. Among these new markets, we will found on one of the first places,
the marketing research market.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
Years
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 *
Investments
value (mill.
4111,2 2885,3 3711,4 4836,3 6391,6 5190.9 5501,0 5526,0 6321,2 6670
USD)
the transition period are still very modest in comparison with the ones
accumulated by other states aspiring to accede to the European Union. This
will facilitate the promotion of some more active politics of attraction of
foreign funds to the real economy based, on the increasing level of
obligation.
2 Sondajul - metod principal de studiu
al fenomenelor pieei
Sunt considerate date primare acele date care sunt culese pentru
prima dat i sunt utilizate pentru acelai scop pentru care au fost culese.
Sursele de date primare sunt recensmintele, cercetrile selective sau alte
observri special organizate.
Datele secundare sunt acele date utilizate n alt scop dect cel pentru
care au fost iniial culese i provin din rapoarte statistice interne i externe,
elaborate i/sau publicate anterior. Termenul de secundar se refer la
temporizare datele secundare sunt utilizate cel puin a doua oar, ntr-o
alt investigaie dect cea pentru care au fost culese iniial. Acestea pot fi
date interne, ale organizaiei sau date externe, publice.
Rapoartele statistice, ca parte a sistemului extern de comunicare a
firmei, sunt transmise periodic ctre autoritile naionale i locale. n
acelai timp, raportele interne sunt transmise periodic ntre departamentele
firmei, pentru a completa fundaiile sistemului managerial al firmei.
Motivaia sistemului informaional statistic intern firmei este diferit de cea
a rapoartelor externe. Implicit, acestea vor avea un alt format, o alt
structur i form de exprimare, un circuit tipic.
Rapoartele statistice, ca parte a sistemului de comunicaii externe ale
firmei, sunt transmise periodic autoritilor de statistic naionale i locale,
conform legii. n acelai timp, prin ntreaga activitate de promovare se
susin produsele firmei i printr-o corect i precis informa a clienilor i
consumatorilor produselor companiei.
n paralel sistemul informaional statistic al firmei din care face parte
integrant i sistemul informaional de marketing produce rapoarte interne
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
mult mai mic dect cea necesar pentru obinerea datelor primare
(Kress Marketing Research). n primul rnd, sursele de date existente n
biblioteci pot fi consultate gratuit, iar publicaiile guvernamentale au costuri
sczute, ceea ce este valabil att pe plan mondial, ct i n cazul Romniei.
n al doilea rnd, timpul consumat pentru consultarea lor este mult mai
redus dect cel necesar culegerii datelor primare. n al treilea, rnd aceste
date sunt culese de specialiti cu experien, ceea ce le acord un grad nalt
de pertinen i ncredere.
Utilizarea datelor din publicaii prezint i dezavantaje, putnd
conduce la rezultate distorsionate, deoarece datele stocate pot fi ndoielnice,
eantionul pe baza cruia au fost culese s nu fi respectat condiiile unui
sondaj probabilistic sau s nu fi fost reprezentativ, datele pot fi deja
perimate, nivelul de acoperire geografic poate s nu coincid cu cel necesar
studiului prezent sau populaia s fi fost mprit pe grupe dup alte
caracteristici dect cele ce fac obiectul investigaiei actuale. Limitele
utilizrii acestor surse de date constau n principal n posibilitatea analizei
unor date mai puin relevante pentru problema curent. Cercettorii trebuie
s aib n vedere ntotdeauna c datele anterioare au fost culese cu alt scop
dect cel al studiului particular, pe de o parte, iar, pe de alt parte, se poate
s nu fie complete. De exemplu, structura populaiei rezultat n urma
recensmntului este pe vrste, profesii, venit real, n nici un caz nu apare
publicat structura dup preferine, stil de via i variabile de segmentare
comportamental.
INFORMAII LIPS
Cercetare cantitativ
Cercetare calitativ
A bias is a tendency of the researcher to make only one kind of errors or represents the tendency of
a method to induce errors. If the use of a method induces characteristics estimation larger than the
value of the population than it is called positive bias and if the estimation is smaller than the value
of the population then the error is called negative bias.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
The analysis of the situation or the funnel of the process implies the
knowledge, at least theoretical, as well as the decision tree research of the
subject towards an already settled purpose, which can become a managerial
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
The first step begins with the research of the secondary data that may
help through statistical processing and analysis to lead to achievement of
the objectives of the study. Once the existing data have been found and
evaluated, the researcher can determine if there are necessary any sources of
primary data if the secondary data are insufficient or dont fit with the
objective of the research or there have to be used other methods of
collecting data.
Once the data have been processed the analysis and interpretation
of results process begin. The analysis has to do with splitting the data
into parts that have a basic meaning. The interpretation of the results implies
their reassembling into shapes that are consistent with the objectives of
the study and have a meaning for those using the results of the research
within the process of decision-making. In order to test the importance and
significance of the results, there can be applied different statistical tests.
unde,
t: valoarea teoretic corespunztoare probabilitii cu care se
lucreaz (de regul, P = 95%, iar t = 1,96);
: abaterea medie ptratic a distribuiei caracteristicii care st la
baza elaborrii eantionului (2 = dispersia sau variana V);
P: procentul n care populaia cercetat posed caracteristica de
eantionare;
e: eroarea limit de reprezentativitate admis.
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
N = N / (1+N.e2) (3.3)
2total = 2 + 2y / x , (3.5)
unde,
2total = dispersia total, determinat de toi factorii de influen ai
variaiei unei variabile;
2 = media dispersiilor nregistrat n interiorul straturilor,
determinat de factorii nenregistrai;
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
2 y/ x
2
1= 2 + 2 , (3.6)
total total
unde,
2
= raport de nondeterminaie ce exprim procentual partea din
total
2
2total = 2 + 2y / x (3.7)
2 2y / x
1= + , (3.8)
total
2
2total
2
a. 2 mg = = dispersie medie marginal, ce arat cu ct se
2total
va modifica media dispersiilor din interiorul straturilor dac dispersia
total sufer o modificare cu o unitate sau cu ct trebuie s se modifice
media dispersiilor din interiorul straturilor pentru a obine o modificare cu
o unitate a dispersiei totale; poate lua valori ntre 1 i 1.
2y / x
b. 2
= = dispersie marginal dintre straturi, ce arat cu
2total
y / xmg
Random Sampling
Determining the size of the sample is the essential step that must be
taken before gathering the data. The size of the sample is designated by the
number of simple and complex number of units, which will be obtained
from the reference population, from which the entering data will be recorded
for the analysis.
So, the analysts must decide, according to many factors, which is the
optimal number of statistical units that must be included in the survey so
that the sample will be representative and its results will extend over the
reference population, respecting the principles of statistical inference.
The optimal size of the sample depends on obtaining the minimum
size which will ensure the representativity of the sample, size which is given
by the influencing factors situated outside the total collectivity's size, which
refer to the structure of the collectivity.
The expressions to define the sample size are:
and
where:
t: theoretical value corresponding to the probability with which it is
working (generally P=95%, and t=1.96);
square average deviation of the characteristic's distribution, which is
the base for the sample's elaboration (2 the dispersion or variance V);
P: the percentage in which the studied population posses the
sampling characteristics;
e: the allowed representativity error.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
N = N / (1+N.e2)
Also this time, some simple computation indicates, that the size of
the obtained sample does not reflect the variations of the total collectivity
size. Certain levels are constituted, over which n (the sample size) will not
rise, no matter the rise of N. For example, for e=5%, the level is 399.
The computation given as example confirms, on one hand, the
affirmation according to which the sample size does not depend entirely on
the total collectivity size given the condition in which the representatvity
error remains constant, the variations of the total collectivity size cannot be
reflected in the sample size), and on the other hand, imposes a certain
wariness in using the "simplified" method for determining the sample size.
The simulated measures of the sample computed with the Taro
Jamane expression for certain values of N and e.
The sample size depends on various controllable and uncontrollable
factors for the researcher: the accuracy level with which it is wished to
estimate the characteristics of the reference population, the size of the
sampling errors, the law of large numbers, and last but not least, the
available budget, the available period of time and the available personnel
resources.
Statistics for Marketing an Business Administration
The total The sample size for various allowed limit errors
collectivity size e = 5% e = 3% e = 1%
(N)
( xmin x ) 2 + ( xmax x ) 2
2
max =
2
and
2m ax = f ( 1 f ) = 0 .5 ( 1 0 .5 ) = 0 .25
to the law of large numbers, the more the sample size is increasing (not the
selection fraction), the more the accuracy of the results is higher. The
sample size is decided also according to the results, which will be finalized,
keeping in mind the necessity of the accuracy not only over the entire
sample, but also over subgroups.
4 Metode de culegere a datelor primare n studii
de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
Scala nominal
Scala ordinal
Scal de interval
Scal de raport
exist o anumit ordine ntre tipurile de scal posibile, pornind de la cea mai
simpl cea nominal pn la cea mai complex cea de raport.
Analiza statistic depinde de tipul de scal ce se potrivete fiecrei
variabile, dup cum urmeaz:
SCALA ORDINAL
SCALA
Operaiuni
NOMINAL
de analiz a datelor
Mediana, Medie
Indicatori de poziie Modul Medie geometric
Cuantile aritmetic
Indicatori ai asocierii
Coeficient de Corelaia Corelaie i Toate metodele
i legturilor
contingen rangurilor regresie anterioare
statistice
Testul Testele t, Toate testele
Teste de semnificaie Hi ptrat
semnelor Fisher anterioare
aceast dat poziiile extreme, cel puin dou (dac nu trei coduri) vor avea
frecvene suficient de mari pentru a permite o analiz mai amnunit.
O nuanare i mai fin, o repartiie ct mai apropiat de o form de
repartiie matematic, am obine dac am construi scala grafic cu apte sau
mai multe grade de intensitate.
Mai multe grade de intensitate nu nseamn ns supralicitarea
scalelor. De fapt, calculul probabilitilor nu furnizeaz un criteriu orientativ
suficient de sigur pentru determinarea numrului optim al gradelor de
intensitate.
Scopul scalelor este de a atribui o valoare determinat fiecrei opinii
nregistrate, astfel nct s se permit compararea acestora. Tipurile de scale
utilizate in cercetari de marketing trebuie sa ia in considerare cele patru
niveluri de msurare: nominal, ordinal, de interval i de raport. Dup
numrul variabilelor luate n considerare la construcia unei scale, aceasta
poate fi simpl i compus.
-2 -1 0 +1 +2
dezacord total dezacord parial indiferent acord parial acord total
SAU
-- - / + ++
opozant hotrt mpotriv indecis susintor susintor hotrt
nesatisfcut deloc nemulumit nehotrt mulumit satisfcut deplin
--10 0 +10
Maximum de intensitate Abinere, inexistena Maximum de intensitate
CONTRA opiniei PRO
Dezavantaje:
- Persoanele ce pot face parte din eantion trebuie s aib acces uor
la un calculator dedicat sondajului;
- Este o tehnic de culegere a datelor imposibil de utilizat pentru
categorii de populaie cu nivel de educaie i de civilizaie redus. Prin
asigurarea unui operator de interviu se poate pierde mult din sinceritatea
rspunsurilor, chiar dac acesta nu cunoate persoana intervievat.
Avantaje:
- Viteza crescut de completare. Un chestionar completat i trimis
prin e-mail poate duce la colectarea a sute de rspunsuri ntr-o zi;
- Costurile se rezum doar la concepia i trimiterea
chestionarului;
- Un astfel de sondaj permite ataarea de explicaii, fotografii,
grafice i chiar muzic;
- Permite un grad nalt de inovare i creativitate, ceea ce va duce
inevitabil la o rat mare a rspunsurilor.
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
Dezavantaje:
- Accesul i achiziia unei baze de date cu adrese de pot
electronic;
- Rspunsuri multiple asemntoare cu cele din cazul
televoting-urilor n cadrul unui concurs de muzic. Acest neajuns
se poate nltura prin acceptarea unui singur rspuns de la
aceeai adres electronic;
- Posibilitatea de retransmitere a chestionarului anumitor persoane
ce nu se calific pentru a face parte din eantion. Acest neajuns
se poate elimina prin acceptarea doar a rspunsurilor de la
adresele cuprinse n baza de date iniial;
- Se poate ca o bun parte din persoanele solicitate s rspund, s
ignore un mesaj venit de la o adres necunoscut sau chiar s
tearg mesajul neavnd sigurana unui atac informatic. Acest
neajuns se poate elimina n cazul n care campania de trimitere
electronic a mesajelor este precedat de o campanie mediatic
agresiv de informare asupra noului studiu ce va ncepe;
- Studiile de marketing astfel realizate nu asigur
reprezentativitatea statistic a eantionului, ceea ce va determina
imposibilitatea efecturii de estimri statistice necesare
caracterizrii ntregii mase de consumatori;
- O parte din programele de pot electronic nu pot vizualiza
imagini;
- Accesul limitat la pota electronic. n prezent marea majoritate
a utilizatorilor de e-mail folosete facilitile oferite de angajator
i nu posed sau nu utilizeaz aceast posibilitate acas, datorit
costurilor. Ceea ce nseamn c rspunsul va trebui completat i
trimis n timpul orelor de program. Desigur este o problem
local specific rii noastre.
Aproape jumatate din populaia ocupat a rii nu are acces direct la
facilitile potei electronice, nedesfurnd o munc de birou i neposednd
un calculator acas.
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
Dezavantaje:
- Utilizarea redus a Internet-ului de majoritatea consumatorilor,
mai ales consumatorii fideli ai bunurilor de baz, cu elasticitate redus, a
cror cerere nu poate fi mult influenat de publicitate sau ali factori ai
mix-ului de marketing;
- Se adreseaz unui segment special de consumatori i este mai
potrivit pentru investigaii din domeniul produselor IT;
- Respondenii pot completa parial un chestionar;
- De aceea, chestionarul trebuie s fie relativ scurt;
- Nu exist control asupra locaiei consumatorului, de aceea poate
fi utilizat mai ales de companiile multinaionale;
- Cei ce acceseaz pagina chestionarului pot s rspund de mai
multe ori, fr a exista un control strict asupra rspunsurilor multiple.
De aceea se recomand utilizarea acestei metode de culegere a
datelor mai ales pentru grupuri-int de consumatori utilizatori ai
Internet-ului i, n special, pentru a testa opinia acestora fa de produsele
informatice.
De asemenea, utilizarea Internet-ului poate fi extrem de util dac se
realizeaz focus grup-uri formate din consumatori aflai n locaii diferite ce
comunic prin faciliti video (asemntor cu o video conferin).
Indiferent de motivul investigrii pieei prin pagini Web este foarte
important ca programul soft-suport al chestionarului s mpiedice multipla
completare de ctre aceeai persoan. Acest lucru se mai poate realiza i
dac se cuprind n chestionar ntrebri demografice de segmentare sau
restricionarea accesului prin utilizarea unei parole cu o singur posibilitate
de acces a chestionarului.
Avantaje:
- Scanarea este cea mai rapid metoda de nregistrare a datelor
ntr-o baz de date n situaia n care acestea sunt nregistrate pe suport de
hrtie. Programul de scanare poate s aib facilitatea nregistrrii direct
ntr-un program de gestiune a bazelor de date, ca de exemplu SPSS.
- Gradul de acuratee este crescut, neexistnd posibilitatea
interpretrii greite a rspunsurilor sau a greelilor operatorului de calculator
ce nregistreaz rspunsurile n baz de date.
Dezavantaje:
- Imposibilitatea unor ntrebri deschise sau a cuprinderii n
chestionar a sugestiilor finale de tipul Ce ntrebare credei c lipsete din
acest chestionar.
- Posibilitatea omiterii unor rspunsuri marcate nelizibil pentru
programul de scanare.
Nominal scale:
The scale called nominal is characterized by using the numerical
symbols in order to represent the possible categories of the variable. These
Statistics for Marketing an Business Administration
Ordinal scale
The scale called ordinal is characterized using numerical symbols
to express different categories in which the variable can occur allowing
grouping the units into classes as the nominal scale and further more
allowing ranking these classes. The ordinal scale is establishing an order
between classes and it is allowing establishing which class represents the
maximum the mean and the minimum value that can be taken by the
variable. At this point we still cannot measure the distance between two
classes that were ranked, increasingly or decreasingly.
Examples of variables suitable to be measure on the ordinal scale are
the social class, the influence of the media on the public opinion, political
opinions, behavioral attitudes, etc.
Interval scale
The numerical values assigned to the categories, the possibilities of
occurrence for a variable on an interval scale are allowing grouping the units
into classes to establish and order between the classes that are ranked and
also to identify the distances between classes. The numbers assign are
representing the distances between classes.
Interval scale is implying the existence of the measurement units,
like for instance the temperature, IQ index, the speed are measure on an
interval scale.
Ratio scale
The ratio scale implies in addition to the previous scales the
existence of an origin point zero. Marking two points on the scale is not
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
ORDINAL scale
Statistical NOMINAL scale
operations
Measures of Mode Median, Arithmetic Geometric mean
position Quintiles mean
Phone
- People can usually be contacted faster over the telephone than
with other methods. If the Interviewers are using computer-assisted
telephone interviewing, the results can be available minutes after completing
the last interview.
- You can dial random telephone numbers even if you do not have
a list of respondents.
Statistics for Marketing an Business Administration
Mail
- This is the only kind of survey you can do if you have the names
and addresses of the target population, but not their telephone numbers.
- The questionnaire can include pictures or CDs - something that
is not possible over the phone.
- Also you can send an incentive like a gift
- Mail surveys allow the respondent to answer at their leisure,
rather than at an inconvenient moment they are contacted for a phone or
personal interview. For this reason, they are not considered as intrusive as
other kinds of interviews.
Disadvantages
- Time to get the answers! Mail surveys take longer than other
kinds. You will need to wait several weeks after mailing out questionnaires
before you can be sure that you have gotten most of the responses.
In populations of lower educational and literacy levels, response
rates to mail surveys are often too small to be useful. This, in effect,
eliminates many categories of populations that form substantial markets in
many areas. Even in well-educated populations, response rates vary from as
low as 3% up to 90%.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
Advantages
- The drastic decrease of data entry and editing costs, this is
practically zero.
- There is no computer operator needed for this type of survey
- You will get more accurate answers to sensitive questions.
Recent studies of potential blood donors have shown respondents were more
likely to reveal drugs or alcohol related risk factors to a computer screen
than to either human interviewers or paper questionnaires.
- Employees are also more often willing to give more honest
answers to a computer than to a person or paper questionnaire.
Statistics for Marketing an Business Administration
Disadvantages
- The Interviewees must have access to a computer or one must be
provided for them.
- You cannot follow the body language and the facial expressions
of the interviewed persons
- As with mail surveys, computer direct interviews may have
serious response rate problems in populations of lower educational and
literacy levels. This method may grow in importance as computer use
increases.
E-mail surveys
E-mail surveys are both very economical and very fast. More people have e-
mail than have full Internet access. This makes e-mail a better choice than a
Web page survey for some populations. On the other hand, e-mail surveys
are limited to simple questionnaires, whereas Web page surveys can include
complex logic.
Advantages
- Speed. An e-mail questionnaire can gather several thousand
responses within a few days.
- There is practically no cost involved once the set up has been
completed.
- You can attach pictures and sound files.
- The novelty element of an e-mail survey often stimulates higher
response levels than ordinary mail surveys.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
Disadvantages
- You must possess (or purchase) a list of e-mail addresses to mail to.
- Some people will respond several times or pass questionnaires
along to friends to answer. Many programs have no check to eliminate
people responding multiple times to bias the results. The programs should
only accept one reply from each address sent the questionnaire. It eliminates
duplicate and pass along questionnaires and checks to ensure that
respondents have not ignored instructions (e.g., giving two answers to a
question requesting only one).
- Many people dislike unsolicited e-mail even more than
unsolicited regular mail. You may want to send e-mail questionnaires only
to people who expect to get e-mail from you.
- You cannot use e-mail surveys to generalize findings to the
whole populations. People who have e-mail are different from those who do
not, even when matched on demographic characteristics, such as age and
gender.
- Many e-mail programs are limited to plain ASCII text
questionnaires and cannot show pictures. - Although use of e-mail is
growing very rapidly, it is not universal - and is even less so outside the
USA (three-quarters of the world's e-mail traffic takes place within the
USA).
- Many average citizens still do not possess e-mail facilities. So
e-mail surveys do not reflect the population as a whole. At this stage they
are probably best used in a corporate environment where e-mail is much
more common or when most members of the target population are known to
have e-mail.
- One person can send several responses
Advantages
- Web page surveys are extremely fast. A questionnaire posted on
a popular Web site can gather several thousand responses within a few
hours. Many people who will respond to an e-mail invitation to take a Web
survey will do so the first day, and most will do so within a few days.
- There is practically no cost involved once the set up has been
completed. Large samples do not cost more than smaller ones (except for
any cost to acquire the sample).
- You can show pictures.
- Web page questionnaires can use complex question skipping
logic, randomizations and other features not possible with paper
questionnaires or most e-mail surveys.
- Web page questionnaires can use colors, fonts and other
formatting options not possible in most e-mail surveys.
- On average, people give longer answers to open-ended questions
on Web page questionnaires than they do on other kinds of self-
administered surveys.
- They are mostly used t interview teenagers
- Some Web survey software can combine the survey answers
with pre-existing information you have about individuals taking a survey.
Disadvantages
- Current use of the Internet is far from universal. Internet surveys
do not reflect the population as a whole. This is true even if a sample of
Internet users is selected to match the general population in terms of age,
gender and other demographics.
- People can easily quit in the middle of a questionnaire. They are
not as likely to complete a long questionnaire on the Web as they would be
if talking with a good interviewer.
- If your survey pops up on a web page, you often have no control
over who replies - anyone from Antarctica to Zanzibar, cruising that web
page may answer.
- Depending on your software, there is often no control over
people responding multiple times to bias the results.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
Scanning questionnaires
Advantages
- Scanning can be the fastest method of data entry for paper
questionnaires.
- Scanning is more accurate than a person in reading a properly
completed questionnaire.
Disadvantages
- Scanning is best-suited to "checking" type surveys and bar codes.
Scanning programs have various methods to deal with text responses, but all
require additional data entry time.
- Scanning is less accurate than a person in reading a poorly
marked questionnaire.
Statistics for Marketing an Business Administration
Direct interviews
Advantages:
An interview is called personal when the Interviewer asks the
questions face-to-face with the Interviewee. Personal interviews can take
place in the home, at a shopping mall, on the street, outside a movie theater
or polling place, and so on.
- The ability to let the Interviewee see, feel and/or taste a product.
- The ability to find the target population. For example, you can
find people who have seen a film more easily outside a theater in which it is
playing than by calling phone numbers at random.
- The possibility to observe the body language
Disadvantages
- Personal interviews usually cost more per interview than other
methods. This is particularly true of in-home interviews, where travel time
is a major factor. For instance when interviewing into a mall we should take
into account that each mall has its own characteristics.
Cost Personal interviews are the most expensive followed by telephone and then
mail. Email and Web page surveys are the least expensive for large samples.
Internet Web page and Email surveys offer significant advantages, but you may not
Usage be able to generalize their results to the population as a whole.
Sensitive People are more likely to answer sensitive questions when interviewed
Questions directly by a computer in one form or another.
Video, A need to get reactions to video, music, or a picture limits your options. You
Sound, can play a video on a Web page, in a computer-direct interview, or in person.
Graphics You can play music when using these methods or over a telephone. You can
show pictures in those first methods and in a mail survey.
5 Probleme metodologice ale elaborrii
chestionarului-suport al culegerii datelor
de sondaj
Questionnaire structure
For example:
answers. If possible the listed alternatives should not overlap, should not
interfere. However should be included also the choice others, please
specify or I dont know. This type of question gives the possibility to
obtain quick and efficient answers. This is the reason for being preferred by
the interviewed (Kress, Marketing Research, Prentice Hall, NY, 1994)
and by the specialized researchers in data analysis. Using this type of
questions data classification is a lot simplified and the alternative answers
guide the subject to the general type of the expected answer.
One unwished aspect of this type of question is the fact that the
answers might be polarized because of the order of the alternatives. If one
answer is required this type of question does not always distortion the result,
as in the example below:
What does represent for you the organization of the personnel?
It is a hobby (1)
It is a working instrument (2)
It is a secondary interest (3)
It is the main interest (4)
It is the future (5)
It is a target in life (6)
It is an activity I am not interested in (7)
Attention! You must tick/circle only one answer.
The disadvantage of the codified accepted multiple answers were
proofed to have polarized the answers to the first options. The potential
polarization caused by the position of the possible answers in the
questionnaire may be avoided by the choices alternation in the list of
answers, in the different set of questionnaires.
If the possible answers have a quantitative form, the polarization
nature will influence undecided persons, which is more likely to select the
middle numbers rather than the extremes.
It is difficult to exude this lack or disadvantage by the numbers
order rotation at different questions, because this may affect the interviewed
person.
A third type of polarization includes the cases when the letters a, b,
c, d etc. are used. It was statistical noticed that the undecided persons
choose, in the majority of cases, the letter a, (this being mentally associated
to the highest performance) or those codified with vowels which is adverse
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
Step 9 The organization of a pretest the pilot study for testing the
efficiency of the questionnaire. The pilot study will help the researcher
improving the sampling methodology used in order to obtain a more
representative sample. Also the pilot study can help the researcher identify
the disadvantages of the questionnaire and will give the chance to correct it.
Step 10 The drawing up of the guide and the instructions to use the
questionnaire. The guide attached to the questionnaire is essential for the
survey operators in order to make them all conduct the interview in the same
way.
6 Pregtirea datelor de sondaj
pentru prelucrare i analiz
Cu ct variaia comun este mai mare, contnd pentru cea mai mare
parte din dispersia variabilei msurate, cu att variaia specific (Vsp) este
mai mic, iar validitatea variabilei este mai mare, explicndu-se, deci, o
parte mai nsemnat din dispersia ei.
Alte modaliti de a determina validitatea msurtorilor constau n
utilizarea, n cercetarea aceluiai aspect, a mai multor metode, tehnici i
instrumente de lucru i, apoi, n compararea rezultatelor. i aici validitatea
este dat de mrimea corelaiilor dintre msurtorile aceleiai variabile
determinate prin metode, tehnici i intrumente de lucru diferite. Cu ct
aceast corelaie este mai mare, se indic, de fapt, obinerea de rezultate
relativ similare n cercetarea aceluiai aspect cu mijloace adecvate, dar
diferite, totui, unele de altele.
O alt problem creia trebuie s i fac fa evaluarea
instrumentelor de sondaj i studiu al pieei este fidelitatea. Aceasta vizeaz
gradul de ncredere i de stabilitate a instrumentelor de msurare. Un anumit
instrument de lucru prezint ncredere dac furnizeaz aceleai rezultate,
dei este utilizat de mai muli cercettori, n condiii similare, nlturnd,
deci, eventualele erori datorate acestora. Gradul de fidelitate este dat de
msura n care, prin msurtorile efectuate, reuim s obinem valorile
adevrate ce caracterizeaz manifestarea unui fenomen de pia. n
condiiile n care obinem valorile adevrate, coeficientul de fidelitate este
maxim i are valoarea 1.
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
f = V / Vt,
unde:
V: dispersia adevrat;
Vt: dispersia total observat.
Atunci cnd cele dou valori coincid, fidelitatea este perfect
(s-a obinut prin observare dispersia adevrat) i indicele f ia valoarea 1.
Dac se produc i erori de msurare, coeficientul de fidelitate se reduce
proporional cu mrimea dispersiei datorat erorilor:
f = 1 Vc/Vt .
unde,
r = numrul ntrebrilor;
Vt = dispersia total observat (2/x);
Pj = proporia rspunsurilor corecte la ntrebarea j;
qj = 1 - Pj.
n literatura de specialitate se menioneaz i o alt direcie de
determinare a fidelitii instrumentelor de msurare, n care variaiile
rspunsurilor nu mai sunt interpretate ca erori, ci ca diferene reale
(Hozt 1941). Dispersia total observat se compune, n acest caz, din
diferene reale inter-individuale (datorate indivizilor):
Vt = Vr + Vi + Ve
6.3 Non-rspunsurile
6.4 Postcodificarea
of the data referring to the subjective field, these must be put in relation with
another criteria of external validity.
Through predictive or external validity it is had in mind the degree in
which the measurements made allow observing the relations with other
measurements, and also the forecasting of the studied phenomenon. In order
to be real relevant, the external criteria must be objective: market and
professional characteristics, performance, etc.
A major interest of the research is constituted by putting face to face
the latent condition of different market processes, determined through the
research, together with their way of manifestation, demonstrating trough this
the operational character (applied) of knowledge.
As it is known, prediction has an important role in scientific
researches. Such a determination of the studied field is accepted as being
valid, which based on the accumulated knowledge, can lead to realization of
predictions regarding its evolution in time. Analysing the perceptions
supposes knowing the intimate nature of the phenomenon submitted to
research, the insight of the legality mechanism which governs them, and
organizing periodical research as part of the studied statistical collectivity.
The construction validity refers according to Ioan Marginean to the
explanatory factors of a certain result achieved by measurement. The
analysis of the inter-correlation of the variables is the most direct way of
determining the construction validity. Its measurement is given by the
balance of the common variation, of the measured variable (Vco) and of
"explanatory" factors, compared to the total dispersion (Vt): the validity =
Vco / Vt. The more the common variation is larger, counting for the largest
part of the measured variable dispersion, the more the specific variation
(Vsp) is smaller, and the validity of the variable is larger, explaining in this
way a more significant part of its dispersion.
Others ways of determining the validity of the measurements
consists in using, in the research of the same aspect, of more methods,
techniques and working instruments and then comparing the results. Here
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
also the validity is given by the size of the correlation between the
measurements of the same variable determined through methods, techniques
and different working instruments. A larger the correlation indicates
obtaining relatively similar results in the research of the same aspect
although by proper ways, but still different one with another.
Another problem that the evaluation of the research instruments and
of the market study is represented by faithfulness. This aims the degree of
confidence and stability of the measurement instruments. A certain working
instrument shows confidence if it offers the same results, although it is used
by many researchers, under similar conditions, removing this way the
possible errors due to these. The faithfulness degree is given by the measure
from which we succeed in obtaining the real values which characterize the
manifestation of a market phenomenon. Under the condition in which we
obtain the real values, the faithfulness coefficient is maximum and the value
equal to 1.
The theoretical expression of the faithfulness is: : f = V / Vt, where
V is the real dispersion , and Vt =the total observed dispersion. When the
two values dovetail, the fidelity is perfect (it was obtained through
observing the real dispersion) and the index f takes the value1. If other
measurement errors will take place, the faithfulness coefficient diminishes
with the same measure with the dispersion's size due to errors: f = 1 Vc/Vt.
If the entire research is a failure, the error balances the total dispersion, and f
takes the value 0. F.N. Kerlingen establishes even a direct relation between
validity and fidelity. The validity measure is achieved if we decrease the
value of the specific variation measured from the fidelity's measure. It
results that the validity does not include the error of the total dispersion nor
the specific dispersion, includes only the common dispersion.
An alternative in the research of faithfulness is taking into account
the hierarchical relations presented by a certain set of indicators. Firstly, we
determine a hierarchy of the indexes depending on their difficulty and we
obtain a cumulative series (only one size, factor); the faithfulness measure is
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
Vt = Vr + Vi + Ve
The first operation that follows the gathering of data is checking the
questionnaires with the purpose of diminishing the recording errors and
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
filling in of the missing answer, in case the operator can reconstitute the
interviewing moment and remembers a possible answer; b) the inference
through the analysis of the answers to the questions related to the specific
one or c) the recording as a non-answer, establishing the confidence degree
which will be allowed to the other answers and deciding if the questionnaire
will be kept or not.
In exceptional situations, depending on the available resources and
on the information regarding the identity of the interviewee, if the answer to
the question is essential for processing, the subject can be interviewed again.
These must be differenced in compulsory no answers that succeeds
the filter answers (for this case the answer should not be recorded) and the
aleatory answers.
If an answer of an important question misses then, under any
circumstances, may be adopted many solutions, such as: i) the fulfillment of
the missed answers, in this case when the operator recall the interview
moment and a possible answer, ii) the inference by analysis the answers to
the related question, or iii) the registration as no answer establishing the
confidence level that will be given to the other answers and deciding also
whether the questionnaire will be hold or not.
The subject may be again interviewed, for the extraordinary
situations, depending on the available resources and the information
concerning the nationality of the interviewed person and if the answer for
the question is essential to process.
Non-answers
Post codifying
The statistical data process implies that the answer of each question
must be included in a class system (scale of answers) in order to establish
the appearance frequencies of each class within the sample. By codifying it
is understood that the picked up information in a specific language called
cod, is translated in order to transcript on a support that can be processed
mechanical or electronic. Thank to the calculating techno progress
nowadays the process is done automatically. The procedure is not difficult
to be realized for the closed questions, these are supposed to be pre codified.
The post codifying represents the attachment of cods to the answers of the
open questions or the fulfillment of the system of cods to the semi open
questions.
The method does not correspond to the simple mechanical
assignment of cods (as in the case of closed questions), but consists in
analyzing the open answers which will end with the establishment of the
system of classes, so with closing the questions, being possible then the
transfer of information into a system of numerical codes.
The manual stripping of questionnaires, which consists in analyzing
the sample of questionnaire and on its basis is established the classes of
possible answers for open questions and the determination of the classes of
answers during the analysis the whole questionnaires.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
Obviously the second method is the most efficient and fast. The
questions asked for the scale analyze of scalar attitudes are considered
closed questions. So, if in the questionnaire there are open questions, then
the codification will consists in: the previous determination of expected
answers together with the options others
Ilut, I., Rotariu, P, Metode Statistice aplicate in stiintele sociale, Ed. Polirom, Cluj, 1998
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
percentage of no answers is high and the profit of the subject who accepted
to collaborate with the pollster is different than those who refused.
The percentage of data represents a possible method of improving
the quality of data, such that the proportion of the sample should be adjusted
to the proportion of the referenced population. The method consists of
geminating or excluding a number of questionnaires such that the desired
proportions to be obtained.
7 Analiza datelor de sondaj pentru
realizarea inferenei statistice
ntrebrilor de opinie dect n cazul celor factuale. Cel mai puternic efect se
produce n studiile care vizeaz proieciile n viitor intenii, dorine etc.
Din punctul de vedere al posibilitii controlului erorilor, n literatura
american de studiu al pieei, erorile mai sunt clasificate n dou mari grupe:
1. Erori ce pot fi previzionate: acestea sunt controlabile i au drept
cauze msurrile statistice ale datelor continue i rotunjirile efectuate pentru
a obine rezultate discrete, conform coninutului caracteristicii statistice,
deci ele sunt probabile sau de sondaj i de calcul ambele tipuri putnd fi
estimate i efectele lor controlate. Prin operaiunea matematic de rotunjire
a valorilor nregistrate se induc erori ce se amplific dac rotunjirea
continu n faza de analiz.
Drept urmare, putem afirma c datele sunt rotunjite din urmtoarele
motive:
Cnd caracteristica observat este continu, n anumite cazuri este
necesar rotunjirea pentru a putea exprima magnitudinea datei (de obicei se
pstreaz doar dou zecimale);
Pentru caracteristicle discrete, rotunjirea are drept scop respectarea
caracterului ntreg al acestora.
2. Erori ce nu pot fi previzionate: acestea sunt necontrolabile i se
datoreaz: nregistrrilor incomplete sau incorecte, definirii ambigue a
caracteristiclor sau unitilor statistice ce sunt studiate.
Controlul erorilor are drept scop aflarea erorilor de observare i
asigurarea autenticitii datelor statistice, i se refer la controlul volumului
datelor nregistrate, controlul aritmetic i logic.
O parte a erorilor se datoreaz operatorului de interviu.
Cele mai importante surse de erori de rspuns datorate operatorilor
sunt:
a) caracteristicile operatorilor, ca, de exemplu, nivelul de pregtire
prea sczut sau prea ridicat care i face s fie nclinai spre greeli
sistematice, sau pot s induc, prin opinia lor exprimat, persoanei
intervievate, o anumit influen asupra rspunsului;
b) anticipaiile operatorilor i determin s sugereze anumite
rspunsuri subiecilor;
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
P ( 1 z 2 = 2 1 (7.1)
1 n
x = xi . (7.2)
n 1=1
Estimaia valorii adevrate a a mrimii msurate cuprinde
determinarea funciei g(x1,x2, ,xn), care d o bun aproximare a mrimii a
i a limitelor intervalului de ncredere (g), adic a intervalului care, cu o
probabilitate de ncredere, acoper valoarea adevrat a. Aceast estimaie
trebuie s posede proprietatea de nedeplasare, de consisten i de
eficien.
Dac toate n msurri ale mrimii a sunt la fel de precise, atunci
valoarea adevrat se determin cu ajutorul formulei (7.2). n acest caz,
estimaiile sunt nedeplasate, consitente i eficiente, dac distribuia erorilor
satisface legea normal. n cazul unei mrimi date a siguranei P i n cazul
unei precizii necunoscute a msurrilor, estimaia de ncredere are forma
(6.3.):
s
a x < t (p.k ) , (7.3)
n
n 2
1 n
S=
n 1 x i x = S
j =1 n 1
(7.4)
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
a x
2
1
n t (P ) 2 , (7.5)
x x
t= , (7.6)
S 1 / n1 + 1 / n 2
unde:
(n1 1) S12 + (n 2 1) S 22
S= .
(n1 1) + (n2 1).
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
1 n
(x i a ) ,
2
2 s 2 = (7.7)
n i =1
n 2
1
2 s2 =
n 1 x i x
i =1
, (7.8)
m
1
2
m S
i =1
2
i , (7.9)
simplu. Dac operatorul i produce o distorsiune net b1, vom defini totalul
distrosiunilor produse de operatori ca (7.10):
2
1 R
=
2
b (b b ) ,
R 1 r =1 i
(7.10)
E ( ) = 0 (7.1)
E ( ) 2 0 (7.2)
E ( ) 2 = var + b 2 (7.3)
Metoda momentelor
f ( x \ ) = e x , x 0, > 0 (7.4)
1
x = E ( X ) = x e x dx = (7.5)
0
n
L( x1 ,...., x n ) = f ( x i ) (7.6)
i =1
1
var = 2 = (7.7)
log f ( x )
2
nE
2
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
n 1
xi2/
L
1 ( x ,....., x n ) = [2 ]
2 e 2
(7.8)
log L = n + i
x2
2 2 2
2 2
proporional cu n: var = 2 = , deoarece derivata de ordinul doi a
n
logaritmului funciei L este o funcie liniar.
Proprietile estimatorului de maxim verosimilitate sunt:
a) converge n probabilitate ctre valoarea adevarat, concret a lui
atunci cnd n , deci este consistent;
b) este asimptotic nedistorsionat;
c) are dispersia minim comparativ cu estimatorii nedistorsionai cu
dispersie finit putnd spune c este un estimator eficient;
d) estimatorul de maxim verosimilitate al unei funcii de este
funcia estimatorului de verosimilitate maxima a lui .
De exemplu, dac estimatorul de maxim verosimilitate ce estimeaz
(sau 2 ) este x 2
i / n (7.9), estimatorul de verosimilitate maxim pentru
abaterea medie ptratic este radical din expresia (7.9) devenind (7.10):
= = x 2
i /n (7.10)
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
n
L( x1 ,...., x n ) = f ( x i ) (7.11)
i =1
2 log f ( x )
B pq = E , p, q = 1,..., n (7.12)
p q
1
[
f ( x 1 , 2 ) = (2 2 ) 2 exp ( x 1 ) 2 / 2 2
] (7.13)
< x < , < 1 < ,0 < 2 <
1 =
x i
= x s ;2 =
(x i x) 2
(7.14)
n n
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
2
n
2 22 (7.15)
n
n
L (x1,., xn| ) = f ( x i | ) . (7.16)
1
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
n
h (x1, , xn,)=g () f ( x i | ) (7.17)
i =1
n
p(|x1, , xn)=k g() f ( x i | ) (7.18)
i =1
v
p ( / x)d = 1 (7.19)
u
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
x s z 1 / n x 0 x s + z 1 / n , cu probabilitatea 1- (7.20)
2 2
P (l u | ) = 1
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
x s t / 2 s x .
1
Me
2
= (7.22)
4n[ f ( x 0.5 )]
2
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
p = w w (7.25)
N (x s x ) i N (w w ) (7.26)
m = r1 x r2 x x rs
unde x este una dintre valorile unitilor din eantion x1, x2, iar
M(y/x) (x, y)
Y m
yj
Y2 / x = D = ( y j y ( x) 2 p .
x j =1 x
n
Y2 / x = M [Y y ( x)]2 = p( xi ) Y2 / x.
i =1
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
y ( x) = x + x,
Y2 / x
Funcia de regresie cea mai simpl este cea liniar unde coeficienii
x si se calculeaz prin metoda celor mai mici ptrate, pornind de la
condiia de minimizare a funciei erorii:
n m
f ( x, ) = M (Y x x) 2 = p( x i, y j )( y j y ( xi )) 2 .
i =1 j =1
y
y ( x) = a y + ( x a x ),
x
Unde ax, ay sunt mrimile aleatoare medii X, respectiv Y. Ecuaia de
regresie obinut, Y n X este aproximativ. Schimbnd locurile variabilelor
n ecuaie, vom obine ecuaia dreptei de regresie aproximativ X n Y:
x
X = ax + (Y a y ).
y
y1 = f (x2,.xn) + ,
Parametrii ce se vor stabili prin metoda celor mai mici ptrate, astfel
nct, s aproximeze cel mai bine poziia subiecilor, marcat de graficul
norului de puncte. Pentru estimarea tendinei legturii, n practic, se
folosete cel mai des, dac numrul datelor analizate este suficient de mare
pentru exprimarea tendinei, funcia liniar. Ecuaia regresiei liniare este:
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
y1 = a + (b2 x2 + . + bn xn) + ,
D
R = 1
D
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
yI = + I + xI
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
yij = x + I + j + ij.
k
= l ir f r + i ; ( i = 1 , 2 ,..., n
r = 1
unde:
fr reprezint factorul simplu r;
k numrul de factori care urmeaz a fi aflat;
i elementele reziduale, care reprezint sursele de abatere, ce
acioneaz numai asupra mrimii i.
Mrimile aleatoare i se presupun independente att ntre ele, ct i
fa de acele k mrimi fr.
Coeficientul lir se numete de obicei sarcin a factorului r.
Dispersiile mrimilor aleatoare i le notm prin i. Toate mediile se
presupun egale cu 0.
Determinarea valorilor parametrilor lir, precum i i alctuiesc baza
analizei factoriale.
n practic prezint interes, de pild, urmtoarea problem: pentru
mrimile de sondaj observate x1, x2, , xn s se estimeze valoarea factorilor
ipotetici f1, f2, , fk i s se exprime aceti factori ca funcii liniare de
variabilele x1, x2, xn. n cazul de fa nu se poate aplica metoda obinuit
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
n goes to infinit, then N (x1, x2, .., xn,, A) / n represents a probability that
leads to 1.
Although the Law of Large Numbers specifies that the researcher
will reach a correct answer after a number of experiments, it does not
specifies how close heor she is to the correct answer after a number of
experiments, or recordings. In certain conditions, the statistical methods
may be used for estimating errors that can be caused by repeating an
experiment for a determined number of times.
The totality of the variables by a which a certain market
phenomenon is studied, constitutes the space of attribute (property-space),
of the phenomenon's characteristics. The operations made with the help of
attribute space aim a more detailed elucidation of the relation between the
variables and the theoretical concepts. Diminishing the attribute space by
combining the categories and eliminating some subdivisions, allows the
achievement of models belonging to the market phenonmenons.
Instead, the operation for substracting consists in following: from the
model it goes to elaborating an attribute space involved in that model. The
space for attribute is used for comparing the operational schemes used in
research, and for finding a posible common point of these empirical reseach
schemes.
If the events are A1, A2, .,An, with the appearance probabilities, (the
appearance frequencies) denoted by the vector P(Ai), i=1, ,n , the
appearance probability of all the events will be P(A1) . P(A2) . .P(An). The
independence's analysis is applied to statistical investigations in which the
data are wrong because of repeating the same elementary operations, each
recording being made independently of the others.
Research errors
Errors that can be forecast: these are controllable and have as result
the statistical measurements of the continuous data and the adjustments
made for obtaining discrete results according to the content of statistical
characteristics, though they are possible-or research and computation- both
types can be estimated and their effects controlled. Through mathematical
operation for adjusting the recorded values, errors are induced which will be
modified if the adjustment continues in the analyzing step.
As a result we may say that the data is adjusted because of the
following reasons: if the observed characteristic is continuous in certain
cases the adjustment is necessary for expressing the magnitude of the data
(usually only two decimals are kept).
For discreet characteristics the adjustment targets to follow their
entire character. Errors that cannot be forecast:these are incontrolable and
are due to incomplete or incorrect recording, ambigouse defining of the
characteristics or statistical units that are studied.
The error control has as purpose to discover the errors of observation
and to ensure the authenticity of the statistical data, and refers to controlling
the size of recorded data, arithmetic and logic control.
A part of the errors are due to the interviewer. The most important
sources for answering errors due to interviewers are:
The operator's characteristics, for example a training level too low or
too high that makes him do sistematis mistakes, or to induce the interviewed
persons a certain influence over the answer because of their personal
opinions. The operator's anticipacions that determines them to suggest
certain answers to subjects. The opeartor's fraud appears in very few cases
and can be discovered through pilot research of reinterviewing
Other important sources for errors that may be avoided are: the size
of the questionniare that may cause the tiredness of the operator and of the
interviewed subjects; a larger number of open questions that leads to
difficulties in the postcoding operation; the questions' content, specially the
personal ones may lead to answering errors; formulating the question,
especially the use of ambiguous words, with multiple understandings; the
place and time of the interview, and last but not least, the interest or
incentives degree of the interviewed person.
Statistic for Marketing and Business Administration
Statistical Estimation
Point Estimation
open questions which will cause difficulties in post codifying procedure, the
content of the questions especially the personal ones which might cause
answering errors, the wording questions especially the usage of ambiguity
words, with more meanings, the place and the time of the interview and last
but not least the interest level or co interest of the subject.
1 n
x= xi (7. 2)
n 1=1
s
a x < t (p, k ) , (7.3)
n
2
1 n
n
S= x i x = S (7.4)
n 1 i =1 n 1
The values of the function t (P,k) are given in the built up table on
the basis of Student repartition.
a x
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
2
1
n t (P ) 2 , (7.5)
x1 x 2
t= , (7.6)
S 1 / n1 + 1 / n 2
Where:
1 n
(x i )
2
2 s2 = (7.8)
n i =1
Statistic for Marketing and Business Administration
2
1 n
2 S2 = x i x (7.9),
n 1 i =1
where,
m: the number of the series of measurements.
The answer dispersion and also the sampling dispersion might be
estimated on the basis of the sampling results. If the individual answering
errors are independent, they will compensate by mean and appear in the
formulas of sampling variance estimation. In case of the answer dispersion
due to recording errors, if each operator produces a systematic distortion,
even if these are mutual compensating, it will take place an increase of the
overall dispersion.
Here comes a component of the answer dispersion, which will
generate the necessity of modification the formulas of computation of the
sampling dispersions.
So, if r operators extracted randomly out of the total R operators of
interview, then this will interview n persons, which will constitute a simple
random sample. If i operator produces a net distortion b1, we will define the
total distortions produced by the operators, such as (7.11):
2
1 R
b2 = (b b ) ,
R 1 r =1 i
(7.11),
V( x ) = 2x / n (7.12)
For this should be added the answer dispersion which is the result of
the errors of the operators, and the formula (4.2.12) becomes (4.2.13):
x2 1
V (x) = + b2 1 (4.2.13)
n r
from where we can imply that the sampling dispersion is composed of two
parts with the meanings:
n
1
1
n ( x k m1 )
2
2
i
n
1
( x k m0 ) n 2
1 2 2
Pn(x1, ..,xn, m1) = e k =1
2
n n
1 1
( xk m1 ) ( xk m0 )
2 2
2
2
2 2
e k =1
ce k =1
, care conduce, dup transformri, la
relaia:
n
(m1 m0 ) x k n(m12 m02 ) 2 ln c (8.7)
k =1
n
Cum x
k =1
k = n x , rezolvnd inegalitatea precedent n raport cu x ,
obinem:
2 ln c + n(m12 m02 )
x = k 1 , dac m1 > m0 (8.7)
n(m1 m0 )
2 ln c + n(m12 m02 )
x = k 2 , dac m1< m0
n(m1 m0 )
(8.8)
Astfel, dac m1 > m0, regiunea critic este definit de relaia (8.7) i
cuprinde toate valorile x care depesc numrul k1. Avem n acest caz o
variant a testului cel mai puternic, i anume testul Z unilateral dreapta.
Dac m1< m0, atunci regiunea critic este definit de relaia (4.8) i
cuprinde toate valorile lui x mai mici dect k2. Suntem n cazul testului
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
x m0 k m0
= P(x k1 / m = m0 ) = 1 P(x < k1 / m = m0 ) = 1 P n< 1 n=
k1 m0
n = z1 k1 = m0 + z1 .
n
x m0
x m0 + z1 sau n z1 (8.9)
n
x m0 k2 m0
= P (x k 2 / m 1 = m 0 ) = P n n = P (Z z ) = F ( z )
8.9
k 2 m0
n = z k 2 = m0 + z (8.10)
n
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
x m0
x m0 + z sau n z (8.10)
n
x m0 k n
= P( x m > k / m = m0 ) = P( x m0 > k) = P(x m0 < k) + P(x m0 > k) = P n< +
x m0 k n k n k n k n
+ P n > = P Z < + P Z > = F + 1 F k n =
k n
= 1 F + 1 F k n
k n
(
Rezult c F k n / = 1 ) 2
=z
1
k=
n
z
1
i,
2 2
x > m0 + z sau x < m0 z (8.11)
n 1
2
n 1
2
sau
x m0
n >z (8.11)
1
2
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
Condiii:
x m1 m m1 m m1
(W, m1 ) = P x < m0 + z / m = m1 = P n< 0 n + z = F 0 n + z
n
(8.12)
m m1 m m1
1- = F 0 n + z sau z1 = 0 n + z , de unde:
2
( )
2
n = z1 + z1 (8.13)
m0 m1
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
1 n
s2 = ( xk x ) 2
n 1 k =1
(8.14)
xm
Folosim teorema conform creia statistica t = .Vn are o
s
repartiie Student cu n 1 grade de libertate.
Procedeul determinrii regiunilor critice pentru ipoteza H 0 , n cele
trei cazuri, adic testul t unilateral dreapta, stnga i bilateral este analog i
conduce la urmtoarele rezultate:
s x mo
W: x > mo = t1 ;n 1 . sau . n > t1 ;n 1 (8.15)
n s
s x mo
W: x < mo + t ; n 1 sau . n < t ; n 1 (8.16)
n s
s s
W : x < m 0 t1 ; n 1
. sau x < m o + t1 2 ; n 1 (8.17)
2
n n
x mo
echivalent cu: . n > t1 2 ; n 1
s
n cazul testului bilateral (m1 mo ) .
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
Observaie
Valorile tabelare t ;n1,t1 ;n 1 i t sunt , 1 i, respectiv,
1 ; n 1
2
1 ale variabilei Student.
2
De exemplu, dac ntr-un sector oarecare de producie s-au efectuat
n = 26 msuratori ale productivitii muncii lucrtorilor care efectueaz o
anumit operaie i productivitatea medie observat este
x = 5,2buc. / om / or , iar s = 0,4buc. / om / or , dorim s se verifice ipoteza
H o : m = 5,5buc. / om / or referitoare la media productivitii muncii m fa
de alternativa H1 : m = m1 < 5,5 la pragul de semnificaie = 0,01.
Variabila productivitate se presupune a urma o lege normal
N (m1 , ) , cu necunoscut.
Este cazul testului t unilateral stnga a crui regiune critic este dat
de relaia (8.16):
x mo
W: n < t; n 1
s
Cum t x ;n 1 = t 0, 01;25 = t o,99, 25 = 2,78 i deoarece:
x mo 5,2 5,5
t= n= = 26 = 3,75 < 2,78,
s 0,4
respingem ipoteza H 0 .
Fie {x , x
1 2,.........., x 4 } o selecie de volum n din populaia normal
N (m, ) i, pe baza ei, ne propunem s verificm ipoteza:
H 0 : 2 = 0 2 fa de alternativa H1 : 2 = 1 2 .
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
(n s) s 2 1 n
Vom folosi statistica 2 =
2
, unde s 2 =
n 1 k =1
( x k x )2
(n s)s2 (n s)k
= P(s2 > k / 2 = 0 ) = P = P(2 2 ;n 1) = 1 P(2 12;n 1)
2
>
2
0 2
0
sau
P ( 2 2 1 ;n s ) = 1 de unde:
(n 1)k 2
21 ; n 1 = k = 0 12 ; n 1
0
2
n 1
2
0 2 (n 1)s 2
W : s2 > 1 ; n 1, adic > 21 ; n 1 (8.18)
n 1 02
de la riscul .
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
(n 1)s 2 n 1)k
= P(s 2 k / 2 = 02 ) = P < = P( 2 < 2 ; n 1 )
2
0 2
0
(n 1) k 02
deci: 2 ;n 1 = k= 2;n 1.
02 n 1
02 (n 1) / s 2
W: s 2 < 2;n 1 , adic < 2;n 1 (8.19)
n 1 02
(n 1)s 2 (n 1)k1
= P ( s 2 < k1 sau s 2 > k 2 / 2 = 02 ) = P < +
0
2
02
(n 1)s2 (n 1)k2
+ P > = P(2 < 12 ) + P(2 > 22 ) = P(2 < 12 ) +1 P(2 22 ).
0 0
2 2
(n 1) k1 02
deci: 12 = 2 = k1 = 2
2
;n 1 02 n 1 2
;n 1
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
0 2
(n 1) s 2
W: s 2 l2 ; n 1, adic l 2 ; n 1 (8.20)
n 1 02
= P( s 2 k1 sau
(n 1) s 2 (n 1) k1 (n 1) s 2 (n 1) k 2
s 2 k 2 / 2 = 20 ) = P ( ) + P ( )=
02 2
0 2
0 2
0
= P( x 2 x12 ) + P( x 2 x 22 ) = P( x 2 x12 ) + 1 P( x 2 x 22 )
2 P( 2 12 ) = i P( 2 12 ) = , deci:
2
(n 1) k1 20
=
2 2
= k1 = . 2
1
2
;n 1
2
0 n 1 2
;n 1
02 (n 1) s 2
W1 : s 2 < 2 , adic < 2 (8.21)
n 1 2
;n 1 2
0 2
;n 1
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
02
P ( 2 < 22 ) = 1 2 22 = 2 2 k2 =
1
2
;n 1 n 1 1 2 ;n 1
02
k2 = 2 , deci regiunea critic corespunztoare este:
n 1 1 ;n 1
2
02 (n 1) s 2
W2 : s >
2
2 adic > 2 (8.22)
n 1 1 ;n 1,
2
2
0
1 ;n 1
2
Observaie
Pentru cazul cnd volumul n al seleciei pe baza creia testm
ipoteza H 0 este mare ( n > 30 ) putem folosi statisticile:
(n 1) s 2 (n 1)
02
a) Z = , care pentru n de volum mare are o
2(n 1)
repartiie asimptotic normal N (0,1).
2 ( n 1) s 2
b) Z = 02
2n 3, care are de asemenea, pentru n, un volum
mare al eantionului aproximativ o repartiie N ( 0,1). Cu ajutorul acestor
statistici testarea ipotezei se poate face deci cu ajutorul testului Z .
De exemplu, dac s-a msurat de n = 9 ori durata ndeplinirii de
ctre un muncitor a unei anumite operaii, cu scopul de a trage concluzii
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
12 ;n 1 = 20,95;8 = 15,5
(u 1)s 2
Deoarece = 10,77 < 15,5, valoarea calculat a statisticii nu
02
cade n regiunea critic, acceptm H 0. , deci uniformitatea lucrului
muncitorului nu difer de uniformitatea stabilit n general pentru operaia
considerat.
22 s12 s12 2
F= = ( s > s22 ) (8.23)
12 s22 s22 1
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
s12
P( > Fn1 1;n2 2;1 ) = , unde Fn1 s;n2 1;1 este cuantila 1 a
s22
repartiiei F i se determin din tabele conform relaiei
P ( F < Fn1 1;n2 1;1 ) = 1 .
s12
> Fn1 1;n2 1;1 (8.24)
s22
s12 s12
< Fn1 1;n2 1; / 2 sau 2 > Fn1 1;n2 1;1 /2 (8.27)
s22 s2
s12 s12
P( 2 < Fn1 1;n2 1; / 2 ) = i P ( 2 < Fn1 1;n2 1;1 / 2 ) = 1 i
s2 2 s2 2
reprezint /2, respectiv 1-/2 cuantilele repartiiei Fisher.
12
Puterea testului pentru o valoare dat a raportului = k este:
22
s12
s12 12
(W ; k ) = P( > Fn1 1;n2 1;1 / 2
= k 2
) = P ( < Fn1 1;n2 1;1 ).
s22 1 2
s22
22
Prin urmare:
1 1
(W , k ) = P( Fn1 1;n2 1 >
Fn1 1;n2 1 > Fn1 1;n2 1;1 ) (8.28)
k k
este probabilitatea ce rezult din tabele pentru , k , n1 si n2 dai.
Fie { X11 , X12 ,..... X1n1} i {X 21, X 22, ..... X 2 n 2 } dou selecii
independente de volum n1 , respectiv n2 din dou populaii normale
n1
1
N (m2 , 22 ), cu dispersiile cunoscute, i fie X1 =
n1
X
i =1
1i i
n2
1
X2 =
n2
X
i 1
2i mediile celor dou selecii.
12 22 x1 x 2 0
W: x1 x 2 > 0 + z1 + adic > z1 (8.29)
n1 n2 12 22
+
n1 n2
12 22 x1 x 2 0
W: x1 x 2 > 0 + z + adic > z (8.30)
n1 n2 12 22
+
n1 n2
12 22
W: x1 x 2 > 0 z + sau
1
2
n1 n2
12 22
x1 x 2 > 0 + z +
1
2
n1 n2
x1 x 2 0
echivalent cu 2
Z1 / 2 (8.31)
1
2
2
+
n1 n2
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
x1 x 2 0
Z=
s12 s12
+
n1 n2
x1 x 2
Deoarece statistica = 10 > 2.57 , respingem ipoteza H0.
12 22
+
n1 n2
s2 =
( n1 1) s12 + ( n2 1) s22 (8.32)
n1 + n2 2
1 n1
unde s12 = ( x1i x1 ) 2 i
n1 1 i =1
1 n2
s22 = ( x2i x2 )
n2 1 i=1
1 1
W: x1 x 0 > 0 + t1 ;n1 + n2 2 s + , adic
n1 n2
x1 x 2 0
> t1 ;n1 + n2 2 (8.33)
1 1
s +
n1 n2
1 1
W: x1 x 0 < 0 + t ;n1 + n2 2 s + adic
n1 n2
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
x1 x 2 0
< t ;n1 + n2 2 (8.34)
1 1
s +
n1 n2
n cazul testului bilateral 1 2
1 1
W: x1 x o < 0 t1 / 2;n1 + n2 2 s + sau
n1 n2
1 1
x1 x o > 0 t1 / 2;n1 + n2 2 s +
n1 n2
x1 x 2 0
echivalent cu > t1 / 2;n1 + n2 2 (8.35)
1 1
s +
n1 n2
2.5 3.3
Cum t = = 3.48 > 2.26 , valoarea observat a
0.5 + 0.78 1 1
+
6 + 5 2 5 6
lui t cade n regiunea critic, deci respingem ipoteza H0. Ca rezultat, putem
concluziona c, n medie, prima metod duce la un salariu mediu mai mic
dect cea de a doua metod de salarizare, deoarece am gsit x1 < x 2 i, prin
urmare, inegalitatea m1 < m2 este mai verosimil dect m1>m2.
0 1
Xi ( ), I=1,2, ...... (8.36)
1 p p
n
adic X= X i
i 1
N
Fie fn= frecvena relativ a apariiilor evenimentului A n selecie.
n
Conform teoremei Movece-Laplace, variabila fn are, pentru valori mari ale
lui n, o repartiie asimptotic normal cu valoarea medie po i dispersia
po (1 po )
, cnd Ho= adevarat.
n
Rezult c variabila redus:
N
fn M( fn ) p0
Z= = n (8.37)
f n
np0 (1 p0 )
are o repartiie normal tip N (0,1).
Z > Z1 (8.38)
Z < Z1 (8.39)
i Z > Z1 / 2 echivalent cu
Summary according to the book: Mitrut C., Serban, D., Mitrut, C. A., Statistics for Business
Administration, ASE, Bucharest, 2003, Chapter 6.9
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
sample, vary with a small quantity from those which characterize the
population from where it was extracted .The operation of testing the
significance is applied for the statistical inference,after determining the
confidence intervals for the total population parameters on the basis of the
survey data.
The probability (8.3.) defines the test power of the hypothesis Ho and
it is higher as the risk of the second manner is smaller.The main problem
rising in the theory of the statistical hypothesis checking is to choose from
all the test,having the same significance level ,that test for which is
minimum , so the most intense test. It may not always exist, but it can be
constructed for a large class of repartitions.
In case that the both hypotheses Ho and H1 are simple, it is valid the
next theorem proved by Newman and Pearson:If the hypothesis Ho : = 0
and the alternative H1 : = 1 , are simple hypotheses for the parameter
from the repartition f(x, ) of the continuous variable X, and Pn(x1,xn,0)
and Pn(x1,xn,1) and the values of the plausible function , when is true Ho
and H1 ,then it exists a most intense test for the hypothesis Ho compared to
H1. The critical region W and also the statistics Q of the test can be
determined from the inequality:
c Pn(x1,xn,0) Pn(x1,xn,1) (8.6)
where c is a positive number which depends on the significance level ,
fixed.
1
n
( xk m0 )
n 2
1 2 2
Pn(x1, ..,xn, m1) = e k =1
2
1 1
n n
( xk m1 ) ( xk m0 )
2 2
2
2
2 2
e k =1
ce k =1
, which leads , after changing the
relation:
n
But x
k =1
k = n x , and solving the previous inequality with respect to
x , we obtain:
2 ln c + n(m12 m02 )
x = k 1 , if m1 > m0 (8.7)
n(m1 m0 )
and
2 ln c + n(m12 m02 )
x = k 2 , if m1< m0
n(m1 m0 )
(8.8)
Thus, if m1 > m0, the critical region is defined by the relation 8.7.
and comprises all the x values which exceeds the number k1 .In this case
we have a variant of the most intense test and namely the right side Z test.
If m1< m0, then the critical region is defined by the relation (4.8) and
comprises all the values of x smaller than k2 We are dealing with the case
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
of the left side test. The critical limits k1 and k2 are determined with respect
to the significance level , with the condition (8.1.), like that:
If m1 > m0 (the right side test) according to (8.1.), we have
successively:
x m0 k m0
= P(x k1 / m = m0 ) = 1 P(x < k1 / m = m0 ) = 1 P n< 1 n=
= 1 P(Z < z1 ) = 1 F(z1 ) . From the relation F (z1-) = 1- it results the
value z1- and consequently:
k1 m0
n = z1 k 1 = m0 +
z1 .
n
Having k1 determined, the relation (8.7) defines the critical region
W:
x m0
x m0 + z1 sau n z1 (8.9)
n
If m1< m0 (left side test), it is similar:
x m0 k2 m0
= P (x k 2 / m `1 = m 0 ) = P n n = P (Z z ) = F ( z )
(8.9)
k 2 m0
n = z k 2 = m0 + z (8.10)
n
x m0
x m0 + z sau n z (8.10)
n
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
If m1m0 ,the critical region will comprise all the values of x , for
which x m0 > k and being the significance level given by k, will be
determined so that:
x m0 k n
= P( x m > k / m = m0 ) = P( x m0 > k) = P(x m0 < k) + P(x m0 > k) = P n< +
x m0 k n k n k n k n
+ P n> = P Z < + P Z > = F + 1 F k n =
k n
= 1 F + 1 F k n
(
It results that F k n / = 1 ) 2
k n
=z
1
k=
n
z
1
2 2
or
x m0
n >z (8.11)
1
2
Conditions :
1. The last variant of the most intense test corresponding to the case
m1m0 is the variant of the both-sides test.
x m1 m m m m
(W, m1) = Px < m0 + z / m= m1 = P n < 0 1 n + z = F 0 1 n + z (8.12)
n
m m1 m m1
1- = F 0 n + z or z1 = 0 n + z , from where:
2
( )
2
n = z1 + z1 (8.13)
m0 m1
Because of the fact that when verifying a statistical hypothesis it is
possible to construct, or different tests, with ifferent statistics Q or with
different ways to construct the critical region W , it is required the necessity
to clsify the different tests.
The clasification of the tests is made comparing their efficiency, like
in the case of the parameters estimation.
We take T*n one of the most intense test for testing the hypothesis H0
compared to its alternative H1 and Tn a certain test of the same hypothesis
H0 compared to the alternative H1, the volume of the selection being the
same. If we denote by1- (T*n) the power of the test T*n and by 1- (Tn) the
power of the test Tn, then the ratio Rn=1- is called the efficiency of the test
T for the hypothesis H0 compared to the alternative H1
Generally, the efficiency of a test depends on the selection volume n.
If n , the efficiency of the test Tn tends to the unit and in this case it is
called the most intense (asymptotic) test.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
For this case we have to solve the previous problem when the
variance 2 of the normal population is unkown, but we will estimate it
according to its unbiased estimation.
1 n
s2 = ( xk x ) 2
n 1 k =1
(8.14)
xm
We use the theory according to which the statistics t = .Vn
s
has a Student repartition with n-1 degree of freedom.
The way of determining the critical regions for the hypothesis H o ,
for the three cases, meaning the t right and left side test and the both-sides
one, is similar, and leads to the following results:
s x mo
W: x > mo = t1 ;n 1 . or . n > t1 ;n 1 (8.15)
n s
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
s x mo
W: x < mo + t ; n 1 or . n t ;n 1 (8.16)
n s
x mo
Equivalent to: . n t1 ;n 1
s 2
x mo
W: n t ; n 1
s
Since t x ;n 1 = t 0, 01;25 = t o,99, 25 = 2,78 and because
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
x mo 5,2 5,5
t= n= = 26 = 3,75 2,78, we reject the
s 0,4
hypothesis H o .
For the case of the right side test (T12 T02 ), the critical region W of
the hypothesis Ho , having given, is obtained using the variance of
selection s 2 . Intuitively,
we reject Ho , if s 2 k.
(n s)s 2 (n s)k
= P(s 2 k / 2 = 0 2 ) = P( ) = P( 2 2 ; n 1 ) = 1 P( 2 21 ; n 1 ).
02 02
or
P ( 2 2 1 ;n s ) = 1 from where :
(n 1) k 02
2 1 ;n 1 = k= 2 1 ;n 1
02 n 1
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
02 (n 1) s 2
W: s 2
2 1 ;n 1, meaning 2 1 ;n 1 . (8.18)
n 1 02
For the case of the left side test, we will reject the hypothesis H 0 if
s 2 < k and accept it if s 2 k , and k is determined as previously starting
with the risk :
(n 1) s 2 n 1) k
= P( s 2 k / 2 = 02 ) = P( < ) = P( 2 < 2 ;n 1 )
2
0 02 ,
(n 1) k 02
So: 2 ;n 1 = k= 2;n 1.
02 n 1
(n 1) s 2 (n 1) k1
= P( s < k1 or s > k 2 / = ) = P(
2 2 2 2
< )+
0
2
0 02
( n 1)s 2 (n 1)k 2
+ P( > ) = P( 2 < 12 ) + P( 2 > 22 ) = P( 2 < 12 ) + 1 P( 2 22 ).
02 02
2 P( 2 < 12 ) = and P( 2 > 12 ) = ,
2
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
(n 1) k1 02
so: 12 = 2 = k1 = 2
2
;n 1 02 n 1 2
; n 1
(n 1) s 2 (n 1) k1 (n 1) s 2 (n 1) k 2
s 2 k 2 / 2 = 20 ) = P ( ) + P ( )=
2
0 2
0 2 2
0 0
= P( x x ) + P( x x ) = P( x x ) + 1 P( x x )
2 2
1
2 2
2
2 2
1
2 2
2
2 P( 2 12 ) = and P( 2 12 ) = , so:
2
(n 1) k1 20
12 = 2 = k1 = . 2
2
;n 1 2
0 n 1 2
;n 1
02 (n 1) s 2
W1 : s 2 < 2 meaning < 2 (8.21)
n 1 2
;n 1 02 2
;n 1
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
02
P( 2
< 22 ) = 1 2 22 = 2
2 k2 = 2
1 2 ;
1 ;n 1
2
n 1 n 1
02
k2 = 2 , so the critical corresponding region is:
n 1 1 ;n 1
2
02 (n 1) s 2
W2 : s 2 > 2 adic > 2 (8.22.)
n 1 1 ;n 1,
2
02 1 ;n 1
2
Observation: For the case when the volume n of the selection on the basis
which we are testing the hypothesis H 0 is large ( n > 30 ), we can use the
statistics:
(n 1) s 2 (n 1)
02
a) Z = , if the volume n is large, then it has a normal
2(n 1)
(asimptotic) repartition N (0,1).
2 ( n 1) s 2
b) Z = 02
2n 3, which also has for n a large volume of the
sample approximately with a repartition N ( 0,1). With the help of these
statistics the testing of the hypothesis may be done according to the Z test.
For example, if it was measured for n=9 times the length of the
achievement of a certain operation by a worker, to draw a conclusion on
works uniformity and the average length of accomplishment of the
observed operation is X = 83 minutes. The variance of the duration was
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
12 ;n 1 = 20,95;8 = 15,5
(u 1) s 2
Because, = 10,7715,5, the obtained value of the statistics doesnt
02
belong to the critical region, we accept H 0. , so the works uniformity is not
different from the uniformity established generally for the considered
operation.
22 s12 s12 2
F= = ( s > s22 ) (8.23)
12 s22 s22 1
s12
> Fn1 1;n2 1;1 (8.24.)
s22
s12
P ( 2 < Fn1 1;n2 1; ) = (8.25)
s2
s12
< Fn1 1;n2 1; (8.26)
s22
where
Fn1 1;n2 1; is the quartile of the Fisher repartition and is determined from
the table according to the relation:
s12 s12
< Fn1 1;n2 1; / 2 or > Fn1 1;n2 1;1 /2 (8.27)
s22 s22
where Fn1 1;n2 1; / 2 , and Fn1 1;n2 1;1 / 2 are respectively satisfying the
relations:
s12 s12
P( 2 < Fn1 1;n2 1; / 2 ) = and P ( 2 < Fn1 1;n2 1;1 / 2 ) = 1 and
s2 2 s2 2
represent / 2 respectively 1 / 2 the quartiles of the Fisher repartition.
12
The power of the test for a given value of the ratio = k is:
22
s12
s12 12
(W ; k ) = P( > Fn1 1;n2 1;1 / 2
= k 2
) = P ( < Fn1 1;n2 1;1 ).
s22 1 2
s22
22
As a result:
1 1
(W , k ) = P( Fn1 1;n2 1 > Fn1 1;n2 1 > Fn1 1;n2 1;1 ) (8.28)
k k
the probability that results from the table for , k , n1 and n2 given.
For example, to evaluate two employees and decide the winner of
the best employee of the month it was verified the accuracy of the
employees work. There were measured the characteristics of some pieces
of the same type, produced by the two employees. On the basis of the results
of n=30 measurements of the pieces characteristics produced by the first
employee, there was found the standard deviation s1=7,98 mm, and on the
basis of 30 measurements for the second worker, there was obtained
s2 = 5,71 mm.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
We consider
{ X11 , X12 ,..... X1n1} and
X 1 X 2 (m1 m2 ) X1 X 2 0
Z= = ,
12 22 12 22
+ +
n1 n2 n1 n2
has a nominal repartition of type N ( 0,1), so we apply the Z test.
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
12 22 x1 x 2 0
W: x1 x 2 > 0 + z1 + meaning > z1 (8.29)
n1 n2 12 22
+
n1 n2
12 22 x1 x 2 0
W: x1 x 2 > 0 + z + meaning > z (8.30)
n1 n2 12 22
+
n1 n2
12 22
W: x1 x 2 > 0 z +
1 n1 n2
2
or
12 22
x1 x 2 > 0 + z +
1
2
n1 n2
x1 x 2 0
Equivalent to 2
Z1 / 2 (8.31)
2
1
+ 2
n1 n2
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
x1 x 2 0
Z=
s12 s12
+
n1 n2
x1 x 2
Because the statistics = 10 > 2.57 , we reject H0 .
12 22
+
n1 n2
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
We will decide upon the situation from the previous paragraph, for
the case when the variances 12 and 22 are unknown , but 12 = 22 .
Taking into account that the selections volume n1 and n2 are small
( 30 ) the common value 2 of the two variances may be estimated using
the variance:
and
1 n2
s22 = ( x2i x2 )
n2 1 i=1
x1 x 2 (m1 m 2 ) x1 x 2
t= = ,
1 1 1 1
s + s +
n1 n 2 n1 n 2
1 1
W: x1 x 0 > 0 + t1 ;n1 + n2 2 s + , meaning
n1 n2
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
x1 x 2 0
> t1 ;n1 + n2 2 (8.33)
1 1
s +
n1 n2
In the case of the left side test ( 1 < 2 ), the critical region will be:
1 1
W: x1 x 0 < 0 + t ;n1 + n2 2 s + meaning
n1 n2
x1 x 2 0
< t ;n1 + n2 2 (8.34)
1 1
s +
n1 n2
1 1
W: x1 x o < 0 t1 / 2;n1 + n2 2 s + or
n1 n2
1 1
x1 x o > 0 t1 / 2;n1 + n2 2 s +
n1 n2
x1 x 2 0
equivalent to: > t1 / 2;n1 + n2 2 (8.35)
1 1
s +
n1 n2
following: 2,0; 2,7; 2,9; 2,3; 2,6; and for the second subsidiary are: 2,5; 3,2;
3,5; 3,8; 3,5. Supposing that the variances of the two subsidiaries considered
to be normal, are equal, we would try to compare the two methods
according to the obtained salaries.
2.5 3.3
Since t = = 3.48 > 2.26 , the observed value of
0.5 + 0.78 1 1
+
6 + 5 2 5 6
t belongs to the critical region, we reject the hypothesis H0. As a result, we
may say that in average, the first method leads to an average salary smaller
than using the second method of remuneration, because we found x1 < x 2
and, as a result the inequality m1< m2 is much plausible then m1>m2.
Z < Z1 (8.39)
Statistics for Marketing and Business Administration
To accept the hypothesis H0: p=p0 means that the difference between
the relative frequency n/N, the date of selection and the specified probability
po is not significant, is only randomly.
ANEXA 1
CHESTIONAR PENTRU EVALUAREA CERERII DE TRAINING
Stimate doamn/domn,
1. Compania
( ) Strin
( ) Mixt
( ) DA
( ) NU, v rugm motivai: ..
Ritm de
Domenii de instruire Categorii de angajai Forma de instruire
instruire
B. 1. Flux informaional, transport, a) muncitori ( ) 1) intern ( )
Cursuri aprovizionare, distribuie, logistic b) personal 2) la firme specializate
organizate administraie ( ) ()
periodic c) personal conducere ( 3) la sediul firmei cu
pentru ) experi externi ( )
angajaii
agentului 2. Protecia muncii i a mediului a) ; b) ___ c) ____ 1) __; 2) ____; 3) ___
economic
7 Marketing a) ; b) ___ c) ____ 1) __; 2) ____; 3) ___
Opinia Nota
Angajaii mei au obinut rezultate mai bune dup o perioad de instruire
Activitatea de formare a angajailor este prea costisitoare. Mai bine cheltuim pentru activiti
ce ne vor aduce un profit mai rapid.
Este dificil s continui s studiezi dup absolvirea colii
Riscm s ne pierdem angajaii instruii de noi. Dup ce sunt perfecionai pleac la
concuren.
Doar companiile strine i permit s instruiasc angajaii.
Cursurile ce ne- au fost oferite sunt prea scumpe
Procesul de formare continu trebuie s includ doar personalul cu studii superioare.
Training ul reprezint un domeniu nou pentru noi.
Instruirea eficient a angajailor se poate realiza doar peste hotare.
Angajaii notri sunt foarte eficieni i nu trebuie perfecionai.
Prefer formatori strini celor romni
Procesul de instruire se adreseaz mai mult conducerii firmei
Compania noastr prefer s angajeze oameni deja instruii pentru a nu fi nevoii s investim
n formarea lor profesional
Cred c n prezent domeniul cel mai necesar a fi permanent actualizat este cel economic
Cei mai buni formatori sunt managerii firmei
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
ANEXA 2
Ce facultate/faculti ai absolvit?________________
Considerai c tinerii din ziua de azi trebuie s urmeze o facultate din unul
din motivele:...................................................................................................
Profesia d-voastr:________________________________________
Ocupaia actual:______________________________________________
Vechimea d-voastr n munc:____________________________________
Vechimea la locul de munc actual:________________________________
Vechimea la ultimul loc de munc:_________________________________
Oraul unde locuii:_____________________________________________
ANEXA 3
4. Dintre salariaii i pensionarii Regiei (b+c din ntrebarea 3.) care intervin
n general ntr-o lun (21 de zile lucrtoare) n controlul d-voastr
aproximativ ci sunt: a. femei .............; b. brbai..........
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
a. rude, cunotine
b. strini
c. ambele (n mod egal)
ANEXA 4
Stimate coleg(),
tim cu toii c unii cltori intervin n aprarea contravenienilor
care nu vor s plteasc amenda RATB i nici s se legitimeze. Dorim ca,
mpreun cu dvs., s gsim i s propunem cteva soluii de rezolvare a
acestei probleme. De aceea v rugm s rspundei la ntrebrile din acest
chestionar. V mulumim.
1 Din punct de vedere (d.p.d.v.) al ocupaiei, 4 D.p.d.v. al sexului, cine intervine cel mai
cine credei c intervine cel mai mult n mult n aprarea contravenienilor?
aprarea contravenienilor? (ncercuii o (ncercuii o singur liter):
singur liter`) a. femeile;
a. persoane fr ocupaie (omeri, b. brbaii;
casnice etc.); c. femeile i brbaii n mod egal.
b. salariai RATB;
c. salariai din afara RATB (pres,
poliie, administraia de stat);
d. persoane care beneficiaz de gratuitate
sau de reducere pe RATB;
e. alte categorii de persoane,
care:
2 D.p.d.v. al vrstei, cine credei c intervine 5. Pentru care contravenieni credei c
cel mai mult n aprarea contravenienilor? se intervine cel mai mult? (ncercuii o
(ncercuii o singur liter): singur liter):
a. tinerii (persoane pn n 35 de ani); a. pentru tinerii (pers. pn n 35 ani);
b. maturii (36 55 ani); b. pentru mature (36-55 ani);
c. vrstnicii (56 65 ani); c. pentru btrni (peste 65 de ani).
d. btrnii (peste 65 de ani).
6 Care este cel mai frecvent rspuns al
contravenienilor la ntrebarea d.-voastr.
De ce nu avei billet.
Scrie aici
3 D.p.d.v. al frecvenei, ct de des credei c 7. Care este cel mai frecvent rspuns al
intervin unii cltori n aprarea cltorilor la solicitarea dvs. De a se
contravenienilor? (ncercuii o singur legitima?
liter): Scrie aici .
a. ntotdeauna (zilnic);
b. mai rar (de 2 3 ori/spt.); 8. Ce msuri propunei mpotriva
c. foarte rar; contravenienilor care nu vor s se
d. niciodat. legitimeze?
Scrie aici
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
nc o dat, v mulumim.
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
ANEXA 5
4. Sex.
B F
5. Vrsta (ani):
10-29 30-59 60 +
6. Profesie:
elev, student, militar
salariat
patron
liber profesionist
pensionar
omer
altele
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
ANEXA 6
6. Care este sau a fost vechimea contractului d-voastr? (nr. de ani pentru
care s-au pltit prime de asigurare) ..........................................................
- clienii firmei
- publicitatea i reclama firmei
- alt motiv, care anume ............
15. Ce tip de asigurare este ncheiat cel mai des de ctre prietenii
d-voastr?
- de via
- sntate
- bunuri
- locuin
- pensie
- auto, alta dect cea obligatorie
- alt tip, care anume.................
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
16. Care este durata asigurat cel mai des de ctre prietenii
d-voastr:
30. Sex:
B
F
V MULUMIM!
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
ANEXA 7
8. Preferai o slujb mai bine remunerat, dar nesigur sau o slujb mai
modest remunerat, dar sigur? (alegei rspunsul corespunztor):
O slujb mai bine remunerat, dar nesigur
O slujb mai modest remunerat, dar sigur
Nu tiu
De Aproximativ De
Nu tiu/
ntotdeauna obicei egal de obicei ntotdeauna
Nu
de femei de femei de de brbai
rspund
femei i brbai brbai
Medic
Profesor/
cercettor
Infirmier/asistent
medical
Avocat
Asistent social
Funcionar/secretar
Casier
Cadru militar
Informatician
Economist
Inginer
Secretar
Ziarist
Vnztor
Muncitor
ofer
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
Aproximativ
Nu tiu/
ntotdeauna De obicei egal De obicei de ntotdeauna
Nu
de femei de femei de femei i brbai de brbai
rspund
brbai
Funcii de
conducere
(director,
manager,
patron)
Funcii de
execuie
(angajat)
n Nici de
n foarte Nu tiu/
foarte n mare acord, nici n mic
mic Nu
mare msur n msur
msur rspund
msur dezacord
Lucrul bine nceput e pe
jumtate fcut.
S nu lai pe mine ceea ce
poi face azi.
Nu ngra porcul n ziua de
Ignat.
Fiecare este furitorul
propriului su destin.
Cine se trezete de
diminea departe ajunge.
Munca e cea mai bun
avuie.
Nu te bucura de munca
altuia.
Munceti mult, trieti
puin.
Omul muncitor de pine nu
duce dor.
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
Aproximativ
De obicei Nu tiu/
ntotdeauna De obicei egal de ntotdeauna
de Nu
de femei de femei femei i de brbai
brbai rspund
brbai
Splat
Clcat
Curenie
Dus gunoiul
Btutul
covoarelor
Gtit
Mici reparaii
prin cas
A face piaa
A avea grij de
membrii
familiei
Cumprarea
obiectelor de
folosin
indelungat
-2
-1 0 +1 +2
n foarte
n mic msur Nu tiu sigur n mare msur n foarte mare msur
mic msur
13.2 Prefer s muncesc ore suplimentare pentru a ctiga mai muli bani.
-2
-1 0 +1 +2
n foarte mic
n mic msur Nu tiu sigur n mare msur n foarte mare msur
msur
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
-2 +2
-1 0 +1
n foarte mic n foarte mare
n mic msur Nu tiu sigur n mare msur
msur msur
-2
-1 0 +1 +2
n foarte mic
n mic msur Nu tiu sigur n mare msur n foarte mare msur
msur
Da Nu Nu tiu
17. Credei c brbaii din Romnia au mai multe anse dect femeile s
realizeze un venit suplimentar celui obinut din ocupaia de baz?
Da Nu Nu tiu
18. Care este prerea d-voastr despre femeile ofer? (alegei rspunsul
corespunztor)
Toate femeile ofer pe care le-am ntlnit conduceau bine.
Am ntlnit femei care conduceau bine.
Am ntlnit i femei care conduceau bine, i femei
care conduceau prost.
Am ntlnit femei care conduceau prost.
Toate femeile ofer pe care le-am ntlnit conduceau prost.
Da Nu Nu tiu
Da Nu Nu tiu
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
Da Nu Nu tiu
22. Vrsta:
23. Sex:
Feminin Masculin
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
Da Nu
- coal general
- Liceu
- coal profesional
- coal postliceal
- nvmnt superior
- nvmnt postuniversitar
- Alte situaii. Care?.........................................................
ANEXA 8
3. Suntei
brbat
femeie
8. Forma de nvmnt:
- cu plat
- buget
12. Dac profesorul nu l-a vzut, alt student i-a adus la cunotin acest
lucru?
- niciodat
- o dat sau de dou ori
- de cteva ori
- de multe ori
- ntotdeauna
18. Ce facei cnd avei un proiect de fcut? (bifai toate rspunsurile care
corespund)
- studiai din crile proprii
- folosii o bibliotec public
- folosii Internetul
- cumprai un proiect gata fcut
- nu l facei
- cerei ajutor
19. Cunoatei un caz n care un student a fost notat intenionat mai prost n
examen dect ar fi trebuit?
- da
- nu
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
20. Cunoatei un caz n care un student a fost notat mai bine n examen
dect ar fi trebuit?
- da
- nu
ANEXA 9
EVALUAREA IMM-URILOR DIN JUDEUL ALBA
ncercuii rspunsul ales!
ANEXA 10
ACADEMIA DE STUDII ECONOMICE
DIN BUCURETI
Facultatea de tiine Economice n Limbi Strine
Calea Griviei 2, sector 1, Bucureti
Tel: 021/2112650
Facultatea de Cibernetica, Statistic
i Informatic Economic
Calea Dorobanilor 15-17, sector 1,
Bucureti
Tel: 021/2112650
b) Sexul :
M F
c) Anul de studiu :
Cls. a IX-a Cls. a X-a Cls. a XI-a Cls. a XII-a Cls. a XIII-a
d) Profilul clasei :
Matematic- Matematic- Filologie Chimie-biologie
informatic fizic
Fizic-chimie Limbi strine tiine Altul..
sociologice
15. Numete, te rugm, cel puin trei activiti implicate de profesia aleas.
1)
2)
3)
Statistica pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
16. Numete, te rugm, cel puin trei locuri de munc posibile pentru
profesia aleas.
1)
2)
3)
Da Nu
Dac DA, continu cu ntrebarea 22. Dac rspunsul e negativ, continu cu
urmtoarea ntrebare.
Care anume ?
1)
2)
3)
Nici acord,
Acord Acord Dezacord Dezacord
nici
total parial parial total
dezacord
Dup facultate voi cuta de
lucru n orice domeniu, nu
numai n domeniul n care mi-
am luat diploma, ceea ce
conteaz e s m angajez
Dup facultate s-ar putea s-mi
doresc o carier n alt domeniu
Dup facultate s-ar putea s fiu
nevoit s m reorientez
profesional
Voi ncepe s lucrez din timpul
facultii
ANEXA 11
Department Magazine de Magazine de
Department Planificarea Secii Department
Clieni financiar- produse materii prime
vnzri produciei de producie aprovizionare
contabil finite i materiale
Note de Catalog de
comand preuri
Facturare
Factur
Centralizare Eliberare
facturi marf
Situaia Inventar
facturilor emise al stocului de
i ncasate produse
Centralizare
vnzri
Raport
al vnzrilor
Modele de
previziune
Previzionare
a vnzrilor
Raport de
previziune a
vnzrilor
Planificarea
produciei Formula de
fabricaie Stoc disponibil
Plan de de materii prime
i materiale
producie
Planificarea
aprovizionrii
Necesar de
aprovizionare
PLAN-
Statistic pentru studii de marketing i administrarea afacerilor
continuare
Alegere
furnizori
Comenzi ctre
furnizori
Aprovizionare
Fi de urmrire
operativ a
aprovizionrii
nregistrare
Fi de intrare
n magazie
(NIR)
Centralizare
Situaia
stoculrilor de
materii prime i
materiale
Procesul
de producie
Not
de predare
Inventariere
Centralizare Raport
produse finite
de calitate
Stoc de produse
Catalog Situaia realizrii finite
de preuri produciei fizice
Vnzare Comparare
cu planul
Raport de
ndeplinire a
planului de
producie